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A new name for the National Hurricane Center?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:23 PM GMT on May 18, 2007

Administrators at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) are making moves to promote their "Corporate Identity" by renaming the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, according to an article published yesterday in the Miami Herald. The new organizations would be called the "NOAA Hurricane Center" and the "NOAA Weather Service". The proposed changes are being vigorously opposed by new NHC director Bill Proenza, who said, "what's happening is scary."

The issue at hand is money. Everyone has heard of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS), but the public is not that familiar with their parent organization, NOAA--part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. By taking over the name of two of the government's most visible, well performing, and trusted organizations, NOAA wants to position themselves to take credit for the fantastic job these organizations do. The result, they hope, will be increased funding for NOAA in the future, thanks to increased name brand recognition. "If NOAA achieves a strong presence in the eyes of the people who use its varied services, the agency will be more successful in budget matters," said Anson Franklin, NOAA's director of communications.

The problem with this is that there are no guarantees that increased funding for NOAA will result in a bump in funding for NHC or NWS. For example, NOAA has an annual budget of over $4 billion, and NHC's budget is just $6.3 million. With NHC losing its identity, its funding may become diluted by NOAA, and will have to fight harder for dollars. Another problem is that the public, who like and trust the NWS and NWS brands, may see the change as an attempt by NOAA bureaucrats to take unwarranted credit for what these organizations do. In addition, it will cost plenty to change the names of these organizations, which may be viewed as a waste of taxpayers' money.

Proenza also complained that NOAA is spending between $1.5 million and $4 million on a "bogus" 200-year NOAA anniversary celebration (NOAA was founded in 1970, although some of its component organizations are 200 years old). I do believe that NOAA has a name recognition problem, and that it needs to spend some public relations money to get their name more recognized by the public. Public relations campaigns are essential for any organization to succeed in today's world. However, I think NOAA is going about their public relations campaign the wrong way. The amount being spent on the 200-year anniversary celebration is excessive, given NOAA's stinginess in funding important hurricane research. Furthermore, NOAA should leave the names of the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service alone. Departments of NOAA should be named, recognized, and funded based on their individual missions and function, not based on those of their parent organization. NHC and NWS have worked hard to earn their name recognition, and it would be wrong for NOAA to change their names.

NOAA has made a web page available for the public to see the proposed changes to its web pages that would result from its reorganization. You can comment on the proposed changes until June 13.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
I'm up here in the panhandle of Florida...same desperate need for rain.
502. FLBoy
.NOW...

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY UNTIL 1030 AM EDT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...BISCAYNE BAY...AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 1030 AM EDT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM NORTH MIAMI BEACH...SOUTHWARD TO
DOWNTOWN MIAMI...KENDALL...AND KEY BISCAYNE...WHERE RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. ALL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


There it is....some of it.
More pictures of Yutu:

Lucky Miami !!
505. IKE
Here's my forecast in Defuniak Springs,Fl....per accuweather...for Wednesday, May 30th...."Wednesday, May 30
High: 86 F RealFeel: 84 F
Windy with sun and some clouds"

Then for May 31st...

"Thursday, May 31
High: 78 F RealFeel: 74 F
Plenty of clouds, very windy and turning colder with showers and thunderstorms"....

Turning colder? Have to be a cold front around?

Very windy usually means trouble/storm.....
Hmm... How do you predict Temps?
I always laugh -- no such thing as cold in Florida this time of year !
West Palm Beach forecast from AccuWeather.com:


Monday, May 28

Rain
Low: 79 F
High: 84 F

Tuesday, May 29
Windy
Cloudy, t-storms; very windy
Low: 81 F
High: 86 F

Wednesday, May 30
Windy
Very windy with thunderstorms
Low: 65 F
High: 88 F
509. FLBoy
Holy moly.....6-8 inches!

AT 946 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
..BETWEEN
HIALEAH...HALLANDALE...AND MIAMI BEACH. ADDITIONALLY...THERE HAVE
BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS FROM BOTH LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE GENERAL
PUBLIC OF FLOODED ROADWAYS IN NORTH MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI LAKES...AND
MIAMI GARDENS. THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING THE FLASH FLOODING HAS
WEAKENED...BUT FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
WARNING AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIAMI
GARDENS...DOLPHINS STADIUM...NORTH BAY VILLAGE...OPA-LOCKA...NORTH
MIAMI BEACH...NORTH MIAMI...MIAMI SHORES...EL PORTAL...LITTLE
HAITI...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH GARDENS...HIALEAH...CAROL CITY AND
AVENTURA
OMG I opened up the accuwetaher hype -- I'm going to get banned ...ha ha
Holy moly.....6-8 inches!

sounds more like a snowstorm then a rainstorm ..
per accuweather

LOL!!! Hype-U-weather!!!

AccuSux
OK OK all i was saying is that they seemed to be in agreement with GFS -- was interesting -- that is all
Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe counties are getting out of there drought.
516. IKE
Posted By: tampaskywatcher at 9:07 AM CDT on May 20, 2007.

OK OK all i was saying is that they seemed to be in agreement with GFS -- was interesting -- that is all


And it is in agreement w/the GFS.
Thats great -- hopefully we can get some rain to migrate northward
Good morning,

Getting nailed right now by much welcomed rain across south florida miami area with 6-8 inches of rain reported by doppler radar.Alot of flooded roadways out there so drive carefully if your out.Adrian

rain
519. IKE
Posted By: tampaskywatcher at 9:05 AM CDT on May 20, 2007.

OMG I opened up the accuwetaher hype -- I'm going to get banned ...ha ha


It's okay...it'll be interesting to see what pans out. I wouldn't hold my breath on a 10 day forecast though.
520. IKE
Miami's getting dumped on...jeez...either not enough rain OR too much.
well you did say you need rain for FL right?


care full what you wish for you this may get it and you got it
6 to 8 inches really isn't anything super weird for south Florida.

If you think about it, its because of all this dry weather, we forget how much it rains in Florida when its this sdry, but if look at past weather history here then you'll remember lol.


In fact the record 1 day total for rainfall in Florida is 48 inches, that beats any other state record by almost 10 inches in second place behind it out of the 50 states.
No I agree Ike and with the way things are now Ill believe rain when I see it most def not a 10 day forecast
Taz, we're still terribly dry up in the northern part of the state. I'll gladly take any rain I can get.
Up here in Pinnelas county, sooo dry, hasn't rained hardly in almost 2 weeks now,vegitation getting so crackly now.


I miss 15 inches in 3 hours we had last year 1 day, we need that right about now, accept the flooding part.
ECMWF still shows a system developing in the East Pacific and than moves it north into Mexico. The GFS takes an area of thunderstorms over Central America and than into the gulf, after that it moves into the Florida Panhandle possible producing much wanted rainfall.
Thanks for the info Jedkins -- guess we all have become jaded -- how soon we forget Feb 3, 2006 here in pinellas county -- When all was said and done, between 8 and more than 11 inches of rain fell in roughly a five hour period in a stripe extending from Pinellas Park northeast through Lealman and Feather Sound, then across Old Tampa Bay to west Tampa, including Tampa International Airport.
WPB, what's the time-frame on that precip in the panhandle?
(hey, a girl can hope, right?)
FLASH FLOOD WARNING OUT FOR EASTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY


Jedkins this the beginging of south florida's rainy season but a drying trend is coming as dry air is set to move soon but rain is likely to make a comeback on tuesday.
530. IKE
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 9:19 AM CDT on May 20, 2007.

ECMWF still shows a system developing in the East Pacific and than moves it north into Mexico.


It does have a low in the GOM in the 216 hr. time frame...then puts in over the Florida panhandle at 240 hours...10 days.
aquak9 too far out, about May 30, 2007.

NA
Also its not that its wierd but the 8 inches have fallen in short time frame which is causeing some significant flooding across parts of miami dade county.
Thanks for the correction Ike. I was looking at the possible formation of a storm in the E. Pacific. The EMWF and GFS are on the same page with forming a low and bringing it into the Florida panhandle.
Yeah, I know that far out is crazy. Kinda like the LBAR...if it comes over my house, I know I'm safe.

Thanks ya'll! have a beautiful sunday!
Well Im out hope you all enjoy the rain in S. Florida -- hopefully we will be convening again in a few days and tracking some moisture into central and n. florida -- thanks for letting me put in my 2 cents
Hello everyone. I am ready to drive down to Miami just to see what rain looks like! LOL! I sure wish all of us that still need rain, could get it SOON! I just hope no major storms come with it.
I hope you are all having a great day!
Not sure what model this is from (NCEP precipitation forecast), but it has tons of rain over Florida:



The other stuff over the U.S. looks like the outlooks for early this month...
538. IKE
Looks like things have a definite possibility of changing in Florida(rain), in about 8 to 10 days.

Now watch the models change back by tomorrow.
The 10day GFSx showing the system..Link
540. FLBoy
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007

.NOW...

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...BISCAYNE BAY...AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 1230 PM EDT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS FROM KEY BISCAYNE...CORAL GABLES
AND KENDALL NORTHWARD TO MIAMI BEACH AND HIALEAH. RAINFALL RATES OF
1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...
AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING. ALL ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH
Pat, if I am seeing that right, it looks like most of that rain would be more towards south west FL. Is that right? That may leave Ike, and I out of the rain.
10 days a long way out mermaidlaw. That will likely change one way or the other out by then.
Yea 10 days out, alot can change. I am just hoping for some rain. It is dry as a bone here, on the central West coast of FL.
Good morning, all!

...what are your thoughts on "Powell/Reinhold's" new hurricane classification idea?

"Currently, hurricanes are classified with the Saffir-Simpson scale, which gives them a 1 to 5 rating based on the strength of a storm's winds, the pressure at the center of the storm (also called it's eye) and the amount of ocean water the storm's winds push on shore, called storm surge. (A Category 1 hurricane's winds blow at 74 to 95 mph and Category 5 storms rage faster than 150 mph.)

But these factors don't always give the full picture of how violent and destructive a storm will be, researchers say, pointing out that the area of a storm and how far out from its center the strong winds reach also influence the amount of damage it can do.

The Saffir-Simpson scale has been a very valuable tool in warning people about hurricanes," said engineer Timothy Reinhold of the Institute for Business & Home Safety, a non-profit agency that does research aimed at reducing the social and economic effects of natural disasters. "But we have known for some time that the level of surge and surge-related damage is not well correlated with the maximum wind speeds at landfall."
-- excerpt from LiveScience writer, Andrea Thompson.
Got an interesting question. Someone have a look at the eastern atlantic IR/Water Vapor image. Whats that sitting off the coast of Africa. I know that its early in the season to be looking that way, but this has not exactly been a regular may in the way of storms and predictions.
Okay moonlight going with what you said, do you feel that they may change the way the categorize storms depending on wind speed and pressure? They just redid the set up for the Fujita scale making the Enhanced Fujita Scale the new tool to go by, is there a chance they will redo the Saffir-Simpson scale the same way the have the Fujita?
moonlightcowboy...I'd have thoughts if I knew anything about it, but that article exert only tells what the SS-scale does and doesnt do.

It also has a couple bits of false info. The SS-scale doesnt take into account pressure and storm surge as it says it does and Cat 5's have winds greater then 155mph, not 150.
MLC-What is their classification idea? The quote just calls out problems w/ Saffir-Simpson without giving a solution.
plywood...The blob near Africa is a wave embedded in the ITCZ. If it were Aug/Sept it'd be something to watch. But it's May and the ITCZ is still too far south. Waves have to be near/above 10N to have any real chance to develope. That ones around 5N.
550. eye
23, that is not the type of rain that will do much good, slow and steady, a pour down runs all off and within 2 days it looks like it hasnt rain for 3 weeks...it is rain, but almost useless when it comes down so fast.
551. FLBoy
Cowboy.....I still don't like the EF ratings for tornadoes. Any thought of messing with the S/S Scale is not something I would be in favor of.
I posted a NOAA news article a week or two ago, it totally sounds like the plans are in the works to change the SS scale. Their looking at how smooth the new EF tornado scale has worked & feel the SS scale could use a similar update. I wouldn't be suprised to see it pass in the next year.
I don't understand how you could really rate hurricanes based on anything but windspeed. Using only pressure would mean nothing because wind speen is based on pressure gradient. We can't accuratly estimate surge from storms. Forecastors call for surge potentials with 5 feet approximations and are regularaly wrong. Wind is the only thing we can reasonably estimate that makes a difference.
eye~ that kind of rain is great for putting out fires. We need it more north though, SFL isn't really on fire. I'll take it here our county dump is a fire again, wildfire got to it yesterday.
It would be nearly impossible to base storm category on storm surge height because it varies greatly with the sea floor topography of the landfall area.
HM~ Surge like intensity of wind is hard to forecast. But the scale is based on the now or in after season verification~ the past. & what surge a storm has now or had is fairly easily & accurately measured. Easier in fact to measure on land than what the wind speed was. With the impact that surge can cause (more so than wind) it seems an important factor in determinaning the strength of the storm.

Another aspect beyond surge being considered in the new scale is overall size of the storm~ as a huge broad cat 4 the size of Floyd is gonna do way more damage than one the size of Andrew at landfall.
...here's the whole article on the new classification idea. Not sure how they'll measure; but, I understand that it'll take more into account -- like total windfield area and more about surges, etc. Initially, sounds like it may have some merit. I'm for anything that helps awareness and safety.

--------------------
Forecasters Call for New Hurricane Classification

By Andrea Thompson, LiveScience Staff Writer

posted: 14 May 2007 10:09 am ET


Forecasters are calling for a new system to predict a hurricane's damage potential, one that could have saved lives taken by Hurricane Katrina and that would be based on the storm's size and reach, not just its wind speed and push.

Currently, hurricanes are classified with the Saffir-Simpson scale, which gives them a 1 to 5 rating based on the strength of a storm's winds, the pressure at the center of the storm (also called it's eye) and the amount of ocean water the storm's winds push on shore, called storm surge. (A Category 1 hurricane's winds blow at 74 to 95 mph and Category 5 storms rage faster than 150 mph.)

But these factors don't always give the full picture of how violent and destructive a storm will be, researchers say, pointing out that the area of a storm and how far out from its center the strong winds reach also influence the amount of damage it can do.

"The Saffir-Simpson scale has been a very valuable tool in warning people about hurricanes," said engineer Timothy Reinhold of the Institute for Business & Home Safety, a non-profit agency that does research aimed at reducing the social and economic effects of natural disasters. "But we have known for some time that the level of surge and surge-related damage is not well correlated with the maximum wind speeds at landfall."

Reinhold is also a former deputy director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Case-in-point

A prime example of this problem, the researchers say, is Hurricane Katrina: Katrina was a Category 5 just 24 hours before landfall, but downshifted to a 3 by the time it touched Gulf shores. In comparison, Hurricane Camille, which devastated the same area in 1969, killing 259 people and causing nearly $1.5 billion dollars in damage, had much stronger winds than Katrina. But Katrina's wind field extended over a much wider area and caused much more significant coastal flooding, making it the costliest and deadliest hurricane in United States history, taking nearly 2000 lives and causing $81 billion in damage.

Many Mississippi residents may have relied on their memory of Camille in their decision not to evacuate, the researchers argue, and call for a new Hurricane Destructive Potential classification tat could better alert coastal resident's to a storm's potential for damage.

"By incorporating both size and intensity, I see this system as a better way to allow people to assess the true potential impact of an approaching storm," said Mark Powell, a meteorologist with the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. "If people knew that Katrina had a much higher damage potential than Camille, then Mississippi residents who chose to stay might have evacuated."
They could add a size to the category. For example: 5XL, 3M, 1S, etc. LOL

(I guess Katrina would have been a 3XL.)
Nicaragua low looking less impressive... no obvious closed circulation on quikscat anymore. It looks like shear from the troguh to the north.
Great article! Just to give an idea, during Camille in 1969 I was in Pensacola, about 120 miles east of landfall. We had peak gusts of 47 mph and about a 2-3 foot storm tide. During Katrina, weaker but broader, Pensacola had 70 mph gusts and a 5 foot surge. Goes to show how important windfield size is, not just strength.
Winds have turned out of the NW near panama.
I hear you, SeminoleF (lol). Imagine if Katrina had come ashore as a 5XL, of 5XXXL??? May have left a chunk of MS and LA out in the Gulf.
I see alot of talk about katrina and camille on the blog well here is a great PDF on these storms.Had it saved on PC for a while.

Katrina vs Camille
MLC-I bet plenty of ppl still would have stayed.
(lurking) Folks on this blog were screaming for people to evacuate by wednesday evening. Some took the advice; some didn't. We didn't need to wait for any classification from NWS to know how bad it was gonna be.

(back below lawn-mower level)
seminolesfan~ lol, yet simple:)

I looked around for the NOAA article & couldn't find it. Maybe I'm using the wrong key words..

Since surge is already included in the SS scale I think they may be trying to incorperate the storm size to make it all jive a little better. Since most people only think of the wind aspect when they hear Catagory...
Hey, I agree Seminole and Aquak...people would've stayed even if you'd told them it was going to split the eastern sky. I'm sure. And, you're right Aquak, this board and more knew this was going to be bad for sure, but there's a bunch of people that've never seen this blog. -- Thanks Adrian for the pdf, it'll make a good lunch read shortly!

I'm not for a fake 200-year NOAH celebration, when I know the NHC needs all the help they can get; but, I am for things that would improve safety and awareness. -- one thing's for sure, after Katrina, more will leave next time around!
FROM SKYE'S LINK
Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region.

Actually the surge is just a generalization based on wind speed.
I think the main problem with the SSHS is the idea of rating hurricanes in itself.You can't rate a hurricane according to a rigid,objective scale.Each one is different in terms of size,rainfall,wind,and surge potential.I think the best thing to do would be to develop a combination objective/subjective system for rating storms.
...combination objective/subjective system for rating storms.

Imagine the flame wars that would cause on WUBs.lol
Yes there is a poor generalization of surge height included for each catagory strength storm. Hence the need to change it. Another thing besides size of storm being considered was population it was to hit...potental death tolls & damage costs. This makes good sense. If a cat 5 was known as we're all gonna die, even if it was a cat 3 with cat 5 surge (like Katrina) maybe more people would have left.

Then again many that didn't leave (thinking back to the day Aquak refures) either couldn't or used the word destiny alot.
574. FLBoy
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...CORAL GABLES...
HIALEAH...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 1224 PM EDT SIGNIFICANT RESIDUAL FLOODING FROM SUNDAY MORNINGS
FLASH FLOOD EVENT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON MIAMI BEACH WHERE FLOOD
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL LOW TIDE OCCURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.
You misunderstood me, Skye. I don't think there is any accurate way to estimate storm surge when a storm is over water. In retrospect, yes - we can measure storm surge once the storms over - but in real time no one knew, or even guessed, that Katrina would pile up 30 feet of water. Plus, certain areas are much more prone to storm surge then others, ala The Big Bend area. Also, I think catagorizing size is kinda silly since evacuations and warnings go up for counties if they're in danger no matter if it's a very large Cat 3 or a very small Cat 5.

I think giving all these extra parameters in catagorizing a storm will just lend to confuse the less educated public.
Nice blob comin off Africa but im guessin its too early for development in that area
...HMyles, you may be right. Enjoyed the responses to the question, thanks. SS may be just fine; but, I do think it's good to re-evaluate sometimes - move forward, learn with technology and reason, especially where lives are in harms way.

Unfortunately, with all of our "supposed" knowledge, Katrina still ended in catastrophy. And, it's a sad thing, when it takes a "catastophy" to cause that awareness. If indeed the 2007 season shapes up to be more like 2005, I believe the media, gov't and people will do more in prevention and in the aftermath. What a wake up call Katrina was!!!
578. RL3AO
Interesting article about the proposed scale.

A few factual errors in it.

Cat 5 have winds greater than 155, not 150. And Katrina was not the deadliest hurricane in U.S. history.

But otherwise, it was good.
HM~ I don't think I miss understood you. I agree predicting storm surge like wind intensity isn't exact. But what a storm is rated is based on the now & in the end~ the then. It is way easier to measure a water line on a house after the fact then try to guestimate the winds that were over land after the anemometers have been distroyed.

It was known that Katrina's surge was gonna be huge. There are sea surface hieghts accurately measured by satalite. At the time Katrina had sea surface hieghts of like 45-50', it was freaky increidable.. Then add the waves, they were 50'+ on top of the incrediable sea height. How do we know? Cause satalites gather this too. We also have hurricane hunters that looked in the center of the eye & said uh yeah verifying those increadable waves. Now if that & climatoligy of what happens when big sea hieghts & waves roll up the gently sloped areas of were Katrina was headed didn't convince you of big kiss your *ss goodbye surge was coming, there's the surge products...this is the newest & coolest but they have been around for years. So it may be 5' or more off here & there, but considering surge & water are a bigger killer in 'canes than wind, it should have a better guestimate included in the overall rating of the 'cane.
Hmmm. Lately Florida is either in a drought and on fire or flooded and under water.. Where is this middle ground we're supposed to be in most of the time?

Rains are good and I hope we get more of them, but today's rain doesn't end the drought. Lake Okeechobee is still down several feet from normal. I'd rather get it this way then all at once, accompanied by 100mph winds or higher, and no power for three weeks...
NHC Director, Dr. Max Mayfield discusses Hurricane Katrina: her historic tidal surge, regretful deaths, and meteorological profile. Also discussed: vertical evacuation, forecast accuracy, stormchasers, historic cat #5 hurricanes Link
Could be way off but seems that blob off of Africa is too far south -- mostly derived from convergence
Hmmm. Lately Florida is either in a drought and on fire or flooded and under water.. Where is this middle ground we're supposed to be in most of the time?

Could locusts be next ???
Yutu at CAT 4

d
impressive thunderstorm2
NWS Guam
=========
Yutu has 10 minute sustained winds of 145 mph and is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Yutu is expected to weaken rapidly to a Category 2 Typhoon late this evening. Yutu is moving Northeast at 14 mph
Japan Meteorological Agency
===========================
Typhoon Yutu has 10 minute sustaned winds of 95 knots (110 mph) and an estimated central pressure of 940 hPa. Yutu is moving NE at 13 knots.

Thanks Patrap~ excellent interview with Max, I watched part 2 as well.

Noticed he said they forecasted a 28' surge with Katrina. That sounds accurate enough. With Jeanne & Frances here the surge forecasts were within 3-4' of what happened. Considering Wilma was near 2 catagories higher than estimated 24hrs before landfall & remember Charley? I wonder if surge forecasts aren't getting more accurate then wind.
Dorvak chart on YUTU

Pretty close to the bottom of the chart for this early in their more active & intense season.
Forecast Outlook: YUTU is expected to continue accelerating towards the NE and starts losing strength. The 1 to 2-day short range forecast (May 21-22) shows YUTU becoming Extratropical as it passes close to Iwo Jima Island Monday evening, May 21.
Surge is a more quantative thing to forecast. A known solution is easily derived from the observed data .It will always be the biggest taker of lives. The winds are the driving force for the surge..and lots of folks really cue into the wind max speeds. But those who have seen a large surge event with there own eyes..know. That its the water that kills...one can hide from the wind inland.But to challenge the surge one on one. Is a fools folly.
Guerra Family Video during Hurricane Katrina's surge and after. Link
This Katrina storm surge video was taken from a security camera at the base of a television transmitter in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana (more)near the below video Link
I agree with all this on the storm surge, which in more cases than not is a bigger killer than the winds. However, I think HM had a point when he said that it will confuse the already uneducated public. Everyone automatically zeros in on the wind speed when they hear that a hurricane is coming. It would be really confusing to them if we suddenly threw in more parameters in categorizing storms, which would lead to the public not really knowing how powerful a storm is as it approaches.

I know there have been other ideas for a new scale. Joe Bastardi from Accuweather proposed making the scale based on a storm's central pressure instead of the winds, since the pressure can be much more accurately measured, and hurricane hunters rarely find the actual max winds.
Hello all! That blob in the carribean sea is getting a better spin on it.

Please come to my blog for realtime satellite images. Thanks
Isnt that the ULL that was forecast to move up the east coast last week?
chessrascal-I certainly don't see what you see. What blob are you referring to?
I agree noles fan unless they are speaking of the convection off the tip of jamaica
850mb Rel Vorticity Link

tampasky-I don't see anything spinning near Jamacia at all.
No I agree nole no spin -- i was speaking of the convection at the tip as a possibility of where chess was looking but no there is no spin at all
OK, sorry tsky.

Current Wind Shear Link

Plus that convection off to the W of Jamacia is under 40+ knts of shear.
I believe this is why the models have really backed off development. The shear that was expected to lessen by this weekend has not. The upper level winds still remain strong and will not allow for development.
Np nole -- and we can only hope this will again be the year of shear and dust
Tampasky-- As much as I would love for this year to be reminiscent of last, it doesn't look like (at least for now) that it will be the case. We are currently in a neutral environment and may end up in a weak La Nina environment as the season progresses.

This will strengthen the trade winds in the Pacific, which will push the warm waters westward. Cooler waters will then rise to the surface, which will weaken the jet stream pattern over the Atlantic.
Levi ~ Think they are trying to come up with a simple rating that would be based more on potental death tolls & damage. Seems more simple then trying to remember how much wind a cat has. That way you wouldn't have cat 3s that killed 2000 people, while other cat 3s made a good party & killed maybe 20.
I agree with you totally nash -- I was putting my hopes in writing -- LOL yeah I mean I think the fact that andrea -- whatever she was formed where she did when she did should be an alarm for all -- that would have never happend last year
Hey, I still see a blob of convection south of Jamaica. I don't think it has a circulation center, but the convection hasn't gotten sheared away with the last few loops (I'm looking at the tropical page of this site, by the way). Think it will survive tonight, and into tommorow?
Water Vapor Link

KoritheMan-Look for the upper level moisture streaming off to the the east from the convection.
I don't think it'll still be there tomm. It's just an afternoon T-storm.
no will not be there tomorrow
I see what you mean. Oh well, it's not like it's uncommon for a May invest, or POSSIBLE invest, like this was, to fail to develop. Even if we are going into a weak La Nia phase this year, you can still expect shear to be at least 20 knots this time of year, I would think (in the Carribean I mean).
And tampa, what makes you so sure? :P
At what time does all this shear begin to lessen during the season?


Right now it looks pretty impossible for development with high shear dominating
Don't expect shear to start diminishing until June comes around.
I'm not sure what time shear starts to die down, but I would expect pretty soon. Shear comes and goes though, so you really can't count it to stay high for the rest of the season. In the same sense, shear cannot stay low for the entire season, even IF we are entering into a possible La Nia. Too many weather systems affect shear levels all year.
there is always a possibility -- korithe but I'd give it about 10% -- wanna bet :P lol
What is that going over South Florida at the end of this loop?

Link
If you don't get Barry till August, I still wouldn't say this year will be a wimpy one, since I'll list a few years that started in August, and had at least one destructive storm:

1950
1977
1992
2000
2004

See what I mean?
Please don't let my comment sound like shear will completely diminish. What KoritheMan said is true. But shear averagely isn't as strong in August or September as it is in December or January.
What is that going over South Florida at the end of this loop?


Don't get your hopes up. The end of the loop is long way down the road and will change before that , if it even does occur.
I'm really no expert at predicting the weather, but I still think you have to watch the SW & NW Caribbean for development over the next few days, this is longest I have seen the convection persist there since early May. If the shear was to drop I think definitely something could develop.Any thoughts?
i understood ur comment WPBhurricane05
im just hoping for some rain, i know its too early for any storms and that loop is still a long time away
yes it is a long way away but we can hope anyway Im done with work so I must exit for now -- have a great afternoon
Bye tampasky, enjoy the rest of your Sunday! :)
shearing winds..no tropical..polar..originating.
good afternoon everyone

Anything new ??. I see that convection continues to fire in the far Southern Caribbean but so far nothing organised. The longer it hangs around the better the chance of something developing ( as well as giving time for the shear to relax ). I notice also that the 2:05 discussion restores the 1010 mb low that was dropped from the discussion yesterday.
Lots of familiar names - Hi WBP05 and Seminolefan!
Here is a link to a shear tendency map. it shows that the shear is forecast to weaken in the Central and NW Caribbean.

Link
Hello Gatorxgrrl
Here are forecast maps for shear



Link
Posted By: iceman25 at 8:21 PM GMT on May 20, 2007.

thx.guess we go to have bad yr huh ;)


Too early to say iceman. Last year was forecast to be bad and turned out to be tame. All depends on how the season unfolds
How are you WPB - can you believe it's this time of year already???
Hey Gatorxgrrl. How's your Sunday treatin' ya?
have to take a break now
will bbl
Grrreat! Seminolesfan - looking forward to football season starting:) We will never outdo last year!
Hey kman, doesn't that map show that the shear had decreased over the last 24, as in past tense? I think thats an anaylsis page not a forcast.
You never know Ggrl, just look at your b-ball team!
I'm good Gatorxgrrl, how are you? Just think in about 2 weeks it will be June 1st!
stupid stubborn southeast high pressure pattern returns next week, forecasts have back off on rain chances here.

North and central Florida just might become one big inferno at this rate until the wet season returns.

I am so friggen sick of the dry weather, it seems like it hasn't rained in a year around here, in literal terms its been a about 2 weeks, but it feels like a year.

Seriously, the weather has been so weird, we have had the pattern found in Arizona and California, accept this is Florida, the wettest state on average, and for those of you that argue that, its at least in the top 3 wettest states no matter how you slice it.


I SAY WE BOYCOTT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR ABOUT A YEAR!

WHOS WITH ME?

LOL, IO am joking but seriously, I wish high pressure didn't even exsist right now, I don't care if I would have half the tan I do right now if high pressure wasn't around.

I just want a return to normal Florida, thats all I want.

I know! My daughter is up there in school right now - I am surprised they got any work done at all this year - it has been insane!!

WPB - I know June 1st!! I am wiping off my shutters as we speak..lol.
Posted By: iceman25 at 8:28 PM GMT on May 20, 2007.
how do i read this wind shear map ?


The colors are the current shear and the lines show you what changes the shear has gone through over the past 24 hrs.
Here is a link to a shear tendency map. it shows that the shear is forecast to weaken in the Central and NW Caribbean.

Actually, that is the tendency over the last 24 hours, which has nothing to do with the forecast (look at the bottom of the image).
I hear ya, Jed. I really think it affects us natives on almost a deeper scale, the high pressure and dryness give a sense of depression and helplessness after this long.
You want to look for areas with less than 20 kts of shear, preferably less, like 10 kts or less (shown as blue-black on that map).
Well I lived here most of my life so I'm practically a native to Florida lol
iceman, high shear (high numbers) blow the tops offa anything trying to form, thus no development. Low shear, coupled w/warm water temps (SST's) create an environment that is conducive for development. Warm water fuels convection, and low shear allows a disturbance to build up higher and develop outflow.
Uh, yeah...what StL said. He can explain it way better than me.
I want the NHC Back..I dont NOAA nothing anymore. 5
Hey Guys =] .... Hey palmbeachweatherboy =]... I remember u from last year ..in the chat rooms
hey roman
What is that going over South Florida at the end of this loop?


Don't get your hopes up. The end of the loop is long way down the road and will change before that , if it even does occur.
WPBHurricane05


The GFS is steady and cohesive late in its run with good day to day agreement. Ive been watching that spot and with each run its remained a fixed event. So I think it has potential a western Caribbean storm moving into the gulf.

The GFS despite its intensity seeming a bit off has been somewhat correct in position and developments of systems with respect to its mslp and precip predictions. Yea its far out But something is going to happen, and water temps are significantly warmer there as compared to the open Atlantic.


But wow, the shear is a lot worse than I thought it would be now.
Fellow Floridans i know i Want rain but not in the form of anything Above a catgory 1 or Ts.Hopefully it will come but not in full force maybe winds of 70mph not too bad
Will that be barry or the c storm
Back again.

I have a question about the shear tendency map. If the tendency over the last 24 hrs was for decreasing shear over the Central and NW Caribbean ( which is what the map shows ) would that not suggest the same in the future for the short term ?. If it had been the other way with increasing shear then it seems to me that the short term forecast would also be for shear to increase. What I am driving at is that shear is not going to be doing the opposite of what the tendency has been right at the end of the period of the map. The other forecast maps I posted after that did show a forecast for less shear also.

Just wondering whether the tendency does not also suggest the short term forecast.It was on that basis that I used the word forecast in the post. Grateful for anyone's view.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl _uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007051912!!!step/

ecmwf model Shows Possible Tropical storm/hurricane
Im just going by the mslp and precip maps. There was actually rain and a slight surface pressure dip that moved up and became a low system. Real cyclones take time to form, I think others were projecting more on the runs than was actually there.

A tropical system is a very organized and complicated, self sustaining heat engine. I don't think the GFS has really predicted that yet.
Oooo thats 850 vort I like that one jp. Yea thats probably a bit much but interesting.
672. IKE
The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast maps show above normal rains over the gulf coast states. Hope it's true.Link and Link
got some grilling to do but will check in later
674. IKE
The 18 UTC GFS keeps cranking out the same western Caribbean low around Memorial day...then has it heading north toward the Florida panhandle where it stalls it almost at the coast. That may have something to do with what is giving the above normal precip along the gulf coast states in the extended forecast..Link
The New GFSx run has the system a lil mo west than previous .Link
One can access the models on the wunderground tropical page ..
the GFS near the end of the loop has a strong storm apporaching Florida. I need more model agree to believe this. It looks impressive though.
This is quite typical of the GFS developing 50-80 hurricanes and tropical storms during any given season the job is to figure out which 5-8 will actually go ahead and become tropical cyclones.I will admit though its been pretty active model wise predicting all these different storms in the month of may.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
lol jp that gfs forecast must be under the influence it shows systems popping up like popcorn
spell check
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Link
PBWB-I think it's more of a troll check that is needed.
Caribbean Sea...
a sfc trough extends from the Cayman Islands to a 1008 mb sfc
low located near 11n80w at 20/1800 UTC. ( 8:05 discussion )

The low in the Southern Caribbean is down 2 mb to 1008. Forecast to remain stationary until mid week
iceman25...The computer models might predict something, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Models will predict something for a week and then 12 hours before it's supposed to happen they will back off and nothing will form. A small difference in what the models think will happen and what does happen can have a huge effect.

On the other hand the models will predict almost nothing and a major hurricane will develope. Use the models as tools along with your own sense. They are wrong more times then they are right.
wsui- Web Surfing under the influence lol

if the low stays stationary long enough and the shear quiets down then, we might have some real stuff to talk about
slow blog tonight.
Hello all
Looks like we may get the record for storms in may!Also seems like an exiting season on it's way.
The record for most storms in May is 2;to break it we'd need 2 more in 11 days.I don't see that happening.
Well,I was just going by the GFS models.But that would be a heck of a way to start the season anyway.It doesn't look like a good year for us in Florida though.We do need rain in Tampa area (Northern Pinellas county)...Still none.
WBK is right; to break the record is very unlikely. I will continue to watch convective flareups over open water where development can occur, however, even though it is only May. I still think this year could be very very dangerous, with at least one major hurricane hitting the U.S.
I have a question.The storms moving off of Africa are very far south.Is this typical,and if so,when do they usually start further north 10-12 lat?
Posted By: i12BNEi at 2:47 AM GMT on May 21, 2007.

I have a question.The storms moving off of Africa are very far south.Is this typical,and if so,when do they usually start further north 10-12 lat?

This is typical as the ITCZ is far South this time of year.Look for the storms to move North from late July onwards.
kmanislander
Thanks,I was wondering about that.It seams to be active though.I have learned a good bit on here thanks to you and all the bloggers.I think I'm addicted!
Radar love...LoL

7
Weather can be addictive. I guess thats why we all hang out here.

Those storms coming off the coast of Africa look impressive but until water temps warm up in mid to late July they tend to dissipate very quickly once they move off the coast and out over the Atlantic. Water temps are still very cool over there
Still waiting for my first storm.I went through the 2004 season,but they (Gene/Francis)were pretty weak by the time they came though here.Charley would have been a little too much for me I think.
Posted By: i12BNEi at 3:06 AM GMT on May 21, 2007.

Still waiting for my first storm.I went through the 2004 season,but they (Gene/Francis)were pretty weak by the time they came though here.Charley would have been a little too much for me I think.


Where do you live ??
A few Miles north of Clearwater,Florida.2 Blocks from the GOM.
The West coast of Fla has dodged a few big ones over the years. Having sat through Gilbert and Ivan I can tell you that while a tropical storm may be an excuse for a party a big hurricane is very serious business.

I sat upstairs my home during Ivan and watched 6 feet of salt water wash through the downstairs of my home taking all the furniture out the french doors.Not a pleasant experience I can assure you. Hope for your first storm to be a weak one
Wow,Sorry to hear that Kman.I hope all is well now.Yeh,I know we dodged many.I read on one of the blogs that we are just a ticking timebomb.I don't want anything too bad,Just....hmm hard to describe.I guess just the experience would be the best way to put it.I'm originally from Pa. and have always watched the storms and have been facinated by them for many years.
I've lived on or near the coast of MS for the pretty much my whole life. My attitude with all hurricanes was DEFCON 5 - HDD (Hunker Down and Drink). Till Katrina. I woke up on Sunday and saw the blow-up and got the hell out. Good thing ; my house , on pilings, was still there but water to the roof.
Kman,You live in the panhandle?
Everything is pretty much rebuilt here now. I got back into my home in March 2005 ( 6 months later ! ). Had to rent an apartment to live in while we rebuilt. There are still about 100 homes that need repairing though.

I know what you mean about wanting to experience one. The sheer ferocity of a strong hurricane is incredible to behold. If one is ever headed your way get to high ground. Storm surge is a much bigger threat than wind. Most homes can withstand high winds ( even if the roof partially or completely fails ) but a wall of water will take down the strongest building
I remodeled and am back waiting on the next one
No I live in the Cayman Islands
Katrina was horrible.It was tough to watch that on T.V. even while I was in the hospital with my daughter being born on the 30th.I hope it's awhile until another of those,If ever (The hurricane).lol
http://youtube.com/watch?v=67_opABb6Dg

Not great quality but aftermath shots for the bored
Posted By: paulfrmpasschristian at 3:30 AM GMT on May 21, 2007.

I remodeled and am back waiting on the next one


We remodelled too but I am not sure that my insurance company wants another claim LOL
yeah kman they are getting a little pissy lately LOL
Cayman,Oh "Kman".I will leave even in a Cat 1.I live on an inner coastal 7ft. above sea level plus the kids/pets/wife (Not any particular order).It really depends on where it is coming from I guess.


This is a photo taken by a photographer outside my home on the day after Ivan hit us. This pick up is loaded with people that were sheltering in my home. I am in the cab and there is a girl on the back holding my briefcase with my passport and other valuables we removed from my home when we abandoned it.

The road is covered with sand from the ocean
My goodness guys.I hope your families are fine. Paul,What a movie.I'll tell you,It hurts to watch that.I know when my daughter came home from the hospital,I worked a local shelter for Katrina folks.Man,what stories they had.I want to visit the area in the nothern gulf sometime.I just can't imagine that.
I really don't think we can ever begin to prepare for something like that.Not on that scale anyway.
Thanks for all you did..we had relatives in Naples FL and I flew back to gut the house and get things going. It was May of last year before we moved back into the house completely finished
Kman got hammered too!
Posted By: i12BNEi at 3:53 AM GMT on May 21, 2007.

I really don't think we can ever begin to prepare for something like that.Not on that scale anyway.

Actually you can. There is only so much you can do to prepare your home but I learned a valuable lesson from Ivan. We had 6 feet of ocean surrounding the home but the inside was pretty dry until the front door busted in from the weight of the water then the downstairs filled up pretty quickly. If you protect your doors and windows with strong shutters and then seal cracks under the doors etc you can keep water out IF you do not have waves breaking on your home.

If my door had not broken in I would not have had the severe damage I did. However, the safety of yourself and your family comes first. Don't try and be a hero riding out a big storm. If things get really bad no one can come to your rescue. Leave for a safe place on high ground before it is too late to get out.

We had to rescue our neighbours who were standing waist deep in salt water on top of a kitchen counter.
Yeah,I see that.I'm just glad you are all O.K. and hope your families are well too.It makes me wonder about my area.I guess it will happen someday,But I never want to see that type of destruction (or any for that matter) anywhere.
Well folks so much for reminiscing. I am gone for tonight. It was a pleasure chatting with you all. Lets see whats up in the Southern Caribbean tomorrow !

gnite all
My local area for a "quick" shelter is 1 mile up the road to Walmart. 80-100ft above sea level.Other than that,I will take my family far away enough for me to come back and help out after the storm.
See ya Kman.
charley was something. 111MPH gusts at my local universiry (UCF). we lost an oak and a maple along with most of the brick wall surronding our subdivision.

was fun though. maybe one more category (we basically saw a strong cat1/weak cat2) and that would be enough. I think in orlando I would be safe in a well built structure. God bless and good luck to those on the coast.

we were in the eye wall of charley though. we saw 80-100MPH winds for only 45 minutes.
Kman, can you believe how far we've come since Ivan, what we accomplished in 2 years I figured it would take 10years or more. I see from the photo you posted you live just about a mile up the road from me. I'll never forget that as long as i live, in fact I'm still a bit traumatized by it, even when there is heavy squall outside, I get the shakes & chills.I don't understand how we survived, the wind outside sounded like 10 F-16s fighterjets flying over for 20 hours non stop.
stormpatrol..during Ivan I was in Montgomery, about 150 miles inland. We got 80 mph gusts for about four hours, and we were fit for the looney bin. Don't know how you guys stood it.
Interesting that GFS still shows low at 10 days but less intense and much further south -- missing FL -- and long range forecasts for central Florida now back off from rain -- just wind -- bad scenario
BUT still way to early -- just an interesting feature
738. MahFL
I left a comment on the proposed NOAA name changes to the NWS and NHC. I mainly used the word "dickheads".....
739. MahFL
The NWS in JAX forcast is not good either, not much rain if any, and 25 mph winds on one of the days...
exactly -- fan the fires some more -- grrrrrrrreat
Good morning Everybody
Good morning canegeek
Hey so a FL storm or not or still too early to tell?
Morning y'all. Still looks like the models are still calling for fairly high shear in most areas for the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what happens when it starts relaxing.

Added a learning page to the website this weekend. Stop by and check it out. Some great info.

Back to work. See y'all later ☺
Still very early -- models showing more southern track then yesterday though over the straits of florida or cuba --

TROPICAL WAVE...THE FIRST TRACKED ON OUR SFC MAP IN 2007...IS
LOCATED ALONG 21W/22W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AROUND 06Z ON SAT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC DATA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE WAVE
PLACEMENT WAS BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL CURVATURE SEEN ON NIGHT
CHANNEL VIS IMAGES WHICH ALSO SEEMED TO MESH WELL WITH A SHIP
AND BUOY REPORT SURROUNDING THE FEATURE. THE BUOY...CALL SIGN
31006...HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY HELPFUL SHOWING THE WIND VEER MORE
TOWARD THE E POSSIBLY INDICATING THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING'S VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE
AXIS COULD BE FURTHER W BASED ON THE SHAPE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...SO THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE WAVE MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO 20 KT. THIS WEAK FEATURE IS LOW-LATITUDE AND IT'S MAIN
FUNCTION IS PERTURBING THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
looks like its really starting early of the african coast!
keywest does all that mean we MIGHT have something out there
I agree keywest -- although that is really far south i thought -- could be very wrong -- just seemed that way
Okay so this is may 21......still 10 days before the hurricane season STARTS and off of Africa we are starting to get waves. I thought waves started in like July and by sept or aug , the peak of the season, they formed so if we keep this pace, then by like late June the hurricanes will come off like they should... but only in sept
So that means what? for theREAL PEAK of hurricane season.???
Good morning all!

Notice the NHC says FIRST wave of 2007! Not second or third, there was some discrepancies a couple of weeks ago on this subject, hope this clears it up!
Good morning all. Shear is still very high throughout most of the Carribbean and the entire GOM. The remainder of May looks to be quiet, as it should be.
I agree there nash! Nasty shear down there! There is a little pocket of favorable shear but, that's it. Any movement N would destroy it.
I live on the west side of Pensacola right next to Bayou Grande across from Pen NAS.
I used to get excited by hurricanes, even enjoyed the ones that hit or came near. ERIN rolled right over us as a CAT1 knocked down a bunch or trees and limbs but didn't bring much surge. OPAL 2 months later passed about 30 miles east of us. It did bring surge, but the west side of the storms seemed to be weakening as it made landfall and wasn't as bad as ERIN in my neighborhood. GEORGES passed about 90 miles west of us and brought an extended period of rain and wind but not that much real damage. So when IVAN threatened, I took the usual preperations but didn't get too worried.
I thought I'd seen a hurricane before....
IVAN redefined my definition of a hurricane. It was like nothing I had ever experienced before. The storm surge was 11 feet. My home sits 13 feet above the bayou about 1 1/2 miles from the gulf as the crow flies, water got into most of my neighbors homes but through shear luck and geography mine sits a little higher. It was a wild and scary night. When the the sun came up, I was awestruck by the magnitude of the destruction along the waterfront in and around my home. I lost 13 pine trees in my yard, fortunately only one scored on my garage the rest landed on my fence or fell harmlessly across the road and into my neighbors yards. My home is not waterfront but I do have a waterview. My neighbors with waterfront all had their homes destroyed. Lots of them still haven't been rebuilt. I guess the bottom line is this...I'll never put myself and family at risk again by riding out a storm so close to the coast.

Nash~ It appears to me that everything seems to be starting to set up like it was in 2004/5. Does this mean we are likely to see a repeat or striking similarity. (as for as the likelyhood for 3 or 4 storms making landfall in Fl)
Morning SJ!

Great site! Have been using it since last week. Thanks for adding the learning page. Im sure lots of folks will find it helpful =)
WAVE,copyright 2007 EUMETSAT!
Visible in the upper right of the image, seems to be loosing it's punch as it traditionally would this time of year in that area. Hopefully the wave can hold together and fuel some good rains further west.
There is no way to say with any certainty how severe or otherwise our season in FL is going to be. The only thing I can say is that the jet pattern is opposite of last year and the flow is similar to the 2004 season.
Thanks! I know we can never be sure of how many etc. But i just wanted to make sure I was right about the 04 pattern being similar. Gives us something to look forward to. (being sarcastic lol)
PensacolaDoug,

I am a former resident of Pensacola and my mother and various aunts and uncles still live there. My mother lives in Myrtle Grove on high ground so only had srtuctural damage. However two uncles and a cousin live on Grande Lagoon, and you know what happened there. Their houses were built 13 feet up on stilts, higher than all around them (they are right on the water). Their three houses were the only ones standing after the storm, and two dead bodies were found near their houses. It still took 8 months for them to be able to move back in. I had always thought of living near the water, but not anymore.
Yeah. I do believe we will have much to discuss/track once the season gets cookin'. Unfortunately, I do not think we will dodge the bullet this year.
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Link
Good morning Pat.
Monday is among us nash28. LAst week to fully prepare for H season.
Yep. I am as ready as I am going to be. Now, it's just a matter of when.....

Ok guys. Gotta run for a few and take care of a nurses laptop. Be back in a bit.
I lived in Ocala during Frances and even as far inland as that we had 80K damage to our home. It was a tornado associated with Frances that got us - took down 5 HUGE water oaks in our yard. Very scary - and now I'm on the east coast in Port St Lucie - YIKES
I'm with you on that Nash! I have that feeling of pure dread! At least by now the majority of Floridians & others scathed know now not to blow the warnings off. Should be fun though, on the flip side, to watch these storms form & trannsform. (Wishing no harm to anyone of course) Does anyone remember what happened w/ Jeanne in 04. Why she looped back around?
Has anyone done the hurricane futures thing on Sj's webpage.
Message from the NHC Director,Bill Proenza
Welcome to your National Weather Service (NWS) National Hurricane Center (NHC). Our primary goal is to provide timely and accurate forecast warnings to protect life.

Currently, 50 percent of the US population lives within 50 miles of the coast and the latest DOC/Census figures indicate the coastal population growth is even higher than projected. This lends directly to the importance of the NHC preparedness and warning activities.

Upon landfall of a tropical cyclone, the forecast and warning responsibility is led by the National Hurricane Center on a large scale and picked up by the National Weather Service local Forecast Offices on the local scale. The history of our Nation's southern and eastern coasts including our Caribbean Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have shown to be the most active tropical cyclone landfall areas in the world. All National Weather Services' forecasts and warnings are disseminated in collaboration with the local and state emergency management communities, government officials and first responders, the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security, and the media.

We ask our fellow Americans, neighbors and visitors to join us in a partnership in preparing ourselves and families for tropical cyclones before they threaten our communities. We encourage you to browse our web site and learn more about our products and to get tips on what you can do to be prepared. We also have several presentations available for download. Please feel free to contact us with any comments, questions or suggestions. Link
National Hurricane Center..Link
Patrap~ I know to say the least, you were displaced by Katrina, but are you still in that same general area?
I was displaced to 6 miles west of the 17th St Canal..near the western Outfall canal..which bowed but held. Still in Trailer..Kids doing fine. We hanging tough.
hmm the quicksat has nothing on the little wave off the africa coast :(
PensacolaDoug or anyone else......
I'm near Pensacola, FL. This morning on our local news station WEAR3 they talked about nine (9) hurricanes predicted to hit the U.S. this season. Yes they said NINE!! This is the first I have heard of this prediction. Has anyone else heard this and to what basis are using to make this kind of statement? If this is true, and after riding out through Ivan, I'm going Hurricane shopping ASAP!!
Jeanne looped because of a big blocking high that was parked right over her, thus not allowing her to move any further to the north. This also made the steering currents extremely weak.
I've been lurking for years so, I have read alot about your story & love the links you share. I know I don't know you, but feel kinda like I do since I've been reading about you for a couple years. Just like lots of other folks on here. I worry bout y'all in season. Especially those like you. In good spirits, but none the less still reeling& you're still in the danger zone if a storm heads your way.
Thanks Nash! Just seemed to me like it was totally unexpected. Went to bed thinking I was in the clear. Woke up a few hours later (had 6wk old twins) to find out that she was headed back.
Watchin....

Six week old twins!?!...Bless you!
Well thats a very nice thing to say watchin. I try to share the experience.The people here are very resilent. And progress is seen lil by little.
I was thinking 7 landfalls this year Weatherbrat! 9 is possible if the current patterns hold this year! Purely my amature opinion!
Morning all!
Does anyone notice the area of distubed weather in the very southern Caribean? Looks like wind sheer, from the west is starting to weaken and more t-strms are starting to pop. The movement is slightly north? What are your thoughts on the developing weather system?
Thanks WEATHERBRAT they're almost 3 now & I have another 1 almost 6. All girls! The funny thing was (& it really isn't funny) is the ideas that you think of to do in those situations. Maybe it was lack of sleep or whatever (lol) but after Frances when Jeanne rolled through, my plan was set! I have 2 small dogs that have a kennel. So, when they kept saying tornadoes were coming specifically in my little area, my twins went in the dog kennel that had a rope tied around it attached to me & my husband held my 3 yr old. Everyone thought I was a nut. But with 2 prs of arms & 3 kids....
This morning on our local news station WEAR3 they talked about nine (9) hurricanes predicted to hit the U.S. this season. Yes they said NINE!!

I think they meant that 9 hurricanes were being forecast this year in total, not 9 landfalls. That is what CSU says - 17 storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 majors (NOT landfalling though).
Can someone tell me what the wind shear is down in the sw caribbean and what the forecast is for the next couple of days.

Thanks.
Weatherbrat...
I went to the WEAR ABC website...

WEAR Website info...
Hurricane Predictions For This Season
The Hurricane Research Team that *accurately predicted last year's storm season, is out with this year's projections....
Researchers at North Carolina State University say we will have eight to nine hurricanes, four or five of those major.
The team also estimates there is a 56 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast....and a ten percent a major hurricane will strike the Southeast Coast.

In 2006, the team at N-C State predicted one or two hurricanes would strike the east coast....and five or six hurricanes would form in the Atlantic Ocean.
Five hurricanes formed and none made landfall.

Most likely you heard someone repeating Joe Bastardi's of ACCUWEATHER's forecast of 13 - 14 storms and Joe Bastardi goes on to predict that 6 or 7 huricanes will make landfall. Joe is much better at winter events, you can get at least the same accuracy as Bastardi on this blog!
Airman,
I remember thinking back in 1979, that Grande Lagoon had it bad from Frederick, then came IVAN, no comparison. That whole stretch of beach on the south side of Gulf Beach Hwy from Warrington west looked like a warzone after Ivan with Grand Lagoon being ground zero. Unreal.
Pensacola~ Have a family friend in Pensacola. When Frances was coming here, he begged us to get out. (We tried & couldn't). So, when Ivan was coming for Pensacola we begged him to get out. He didn't. It scared him badly, but he was lucky. He told us some awful stories. And he said the totality of the disaster was kinda downplayed in the media. He was stuck somewhere for a while cause a main bridge washed out, i guess.
new blog!!!
TS Pierre, passing over Cape York in Queensland, has become the first tropical storm to make landfall on Australia during May since TS Ernie in 1989, and be only the second one to do so since accurate cyclone records began in the mid-1970s.

SSTs remain warm over Northern Australia despite being only a week out from moving into winter officially, does not bode well for later in the year when summer comes.
Link


Also Typhoon Yutu is breaking down under increasing shear as it approaches Iwo Jima.

Impressive (and concerning) for a Pacific storm to be a strong Category 4 in May whilst La Nina conditions are prevalent.

Yutu Dvorak: Link

Typhoon Yutu arose with the MJO shifting back into gear in phase 7, after stalling for some time previously. Phase 7 coincides with very favourable cyclogenisis conditions in the Western Pacific during the austral winter.

However the MJO will cross over into Phase 8 over the next few days will cause the Atlantic ITCZ to fire up and make things interesting for you guys up there.

Current MJO situation: Link



Additionally concerning the MJO, it can be expected that it will shift into Phase 1 in the days around June 1st.

Phase 1 conditions tend to give rise to above average tropical storm development in the Nth Atlantic, particularly the Caribbean and GOM. (Indeed during 2005 the MJO spent an unusual amount of time in this phase and we all are aware of what happened then).

All those in the Panhandle should get prepared, conditions are lining up for a lot of potential during the first week of June.