WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A new airplane for the hurricane hunters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:45 PM GMT on May 01, 2006

If you have a copy of Google Earth, try zooming in to take a look at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base near Tucson, Arizona. Included amongst the thousands of retired airplanes in the desert is one lucky 4-engine turboprop P-3 Orion, used by the Navy for anti-submarine warfare. This sword will soon be beaten into a plowshare, for it will serve as NOAA's next weather research aircraft. Stung by criticism that neither of our top hurricane hunter aircraft--the two P-3 Orions operated by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center (AOC)--were available to fly during 2004's Hurricane Charley, since they were off flying other weather research projects, the government has allocated $11 million to buy a new P-3 for weather research. According to Dr. Jim McFadden, head of science programs for the AOC, the new P-3 will not be used for hurricane work, but instead will be outfitted to do other weather reasearch, such as air pollution projects. This will free up the two current P-3s for the entire hurricane season, so they can concentrate exclusively on hurricane work. No funding has yet been procured to finance the additional staff required by NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center to operate the new P-3, but this funding has been promised by NOAA.

Figure 1. The NOAA P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft. Image credit: NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

The new P-3 is scheduled to come on-line in 2008 or 2009, but we could sure use it this hurricane season! Only one P-3 is scheduled to be available for hurricane work. The other P-3 is currently in Standard Depot Level Maintainence (SDLM), a 5-month process the airplanes undergo every seven years, where they are basically gutted down to the frame and rebuilt. As part of this year's SDLM, the P-3 will also be undergoing a Special Structural Inspection (SSI), where every rivet is X-rayed and the entire frame closely inspected for stress cracks caused by the severe turbulence the aircraft flies through. When the P-3 completes SDLM, it will undergo a month-long process to outfit it with special instrumentation to perform air pollution research. The P-3 is scheduled to be ready by August to fly again, and it is slated to spend the peak months of hurricane season--August and September--in Houston for an air pollution field program. Should the other P-3 suffer some crippling mechanical problem that would put it out of hurricane flying action for an extended period, the P-3 in Houston will be summoned to fly hurricanes. This can only happen after a 3-day effort to take all the sentitive air pollution instrumentation off of the airplane, as these instruments cannot survive high turbulence.

Since only one P-3 will be available for the 2006 hurricane season, we'll have only one Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) instrument flying. The SFMR is an airborne remote sensing device that can infer surface wind speeds in a hurricane by looking at the brightness of the sea surface. The SFMR measurements were used heavily by NHC in 2005 to determine how much of the coast needed hurricane and tropical storm warnings. The U.S. Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft are scheduled to receive the SFMR instruments, but this will not happen in time for the 2006 hurricane season, according to Dr. McFadden.

What's interesting about the new P-3 purchase is that no big press release about it was made--at least that I can find. It is strange that an administration concerned about its image after the Katrina disaster wouldn't emphasize its commitment spend more money to help out hurricane reconnaissance. In addition to the new P-3, the administration has also proposed in its 2006 budget to spend $1.4 million to improve hurricane data buoys and operations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Oceans. Unfortunately, little new money has been approved or promised to fund more hurricane research. While I give the Bush Administration credit for these much-needed expenditures, I believe that the money proposed to fix the ailing buoys might have been better spent funding NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to do more research to improve our poor hurricane intensity forecasts.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Models are starting to show systems in the East Pacific, like this one (also, notice how warm the water is).
Why not set up a featured blog that rolls over daily automatically for 'chat' so that the interesing on topic comments on Dr. Masters blog entries for instance don't get lost in the chaff. Not that the chaff isn't interesting, but it makes reading the comments a bit intimidating for the casual reader.
Better yet Kernel why not just ask the readers to rate the most informative posts and create a side blog with the user rated comments. Allows debate to continue that way. I mean hell we already get to push a obscene or spam button, why not a helpful post button.

Micheal thanks for that fsu.edu link. I followed it backwards and have found a lot of great links on those pages. Some great model and current data pages.
StormJunkie, it sounds like you want slashapp.
I have some more links in my blog (clcik on my name).
I was trying to suggest an incremental change. Almost a 0 development time change, not something that would require a whole blog engine overhall. I am not sure that slashapp would be compatible with they way WU deploys their server farm. Then again maybe it is a good fit.
Sorry its just slash see http://www.slashcode.com/
the ones that want to see the real transcripts and why i feel the nhc is at fault then you can write me at ljtret@cox.net....i will be more then happy to send you one...its all my transcripts from KATRINA from aug 23-28....you will see where my last predicted landfall was between pass christian and gulport monday night....im tired of the lies circulating about me in this room..its time for the truth..

I like the new Tetris model NOAA is using :D


NOAA says that global warming is the reason why the Atlantic is warmer than normal, in addition to the AMO. Link
By the way, in order to post images, use HTML code (like this: img src="put URL of your image here"). Also, put a left arrow (the ones next to the ? key on the keyboard) before the img and a right arrow after the " at the end; for large images (usually over 600 pixels wide), add width=600 after the second " and the right arrow at the end; like this:

img src="put URL of your image here" width=600

You can also make an image clickable if it is too big by putting it into a link, so that a small image can be clicked on and a window with the full image opens up.
Interesting that NOAA would come out and say that.
If warming continues, it may mean that there won't be an inactive AMO cycle in a few decades because the Atlantic won't be colder than it is at the peaks...
oh stop it cant we all get a long
Wow is all I can say...:0)

I have been reading all of this for the last 2hrs now I am all up to date...

I know it is getting close because everybody is back>>>>>Bring on Hurricane Season 2006 we are ready for you I hope...

hey taco2me61 how are you
maybe i sound strange but its always good if some people disagree we cant always just follow one blind person can we?

and btw last year we had those discussions too and in the end we will see who is right on who not
It is good if people disagree on some things. If they didn't, life could get a little boring. But sometimes people get very nasty in their arguments, and that is not fun to listen to, or to be a part of.

...............STORMTOP'S KATRINA PREDICTIONS..................

There is also another article linked in cyclonebusters previous story that has been a discussion topic here.
I already posted something similar - NOAA says that the Atlantic is getting hotter from global warming; I would not be suprised if inactive hurricane seasons are a thing of the past... and the next AMO peak will result in depopulation of the Gulf and East Coasts due to 50 storms a year. Maybe they can be turned into giant wilderness areas...
Keeping tune with MichaelSTL , more hurricanes may be a long term benefit to the people who lived along the coast.

Large numbers of hurricanes in the short term will devalue ocean front property along the low lying areas of the gulf and east coast. Banks will no longer loan to build too low or too close to the sea.

Many people will advocate building hurricane proof houses. While a very good idea, it does not address the long term problems...

Rising global sea levels and land subsidence. It doesnt matter how well built your house is, if you have to have a 20ft levee around it to keep dry, disaster is a (hurricane, levee break, pump failure, terrorist attack, political incompetence) away.

NOLA is an example of how far politicians will go to prove there stupidity, there love of money, and there contempt for there voters.

The lowest lying areas in New Orleans had the lowest property values. This over time was developed in to cheap housing, which typically is rented/bought by people on the lower end of the income scale. The area was too much of an insurance risk for high end development, and Katrina proved it by flooding these areas the worst.

Watch the news now, and they are begging for the people who lived there to move back! If I had lived there I would be insulted.

You want me to move back to a city where...

.The majority of the city is under sea level
.Levees have to protect the city
.The levee board is known for mass corruption.
.Pumps must keep the city dry
.There are good signs there is going to be an increase in the number of major hurricanes
.The city is sinking
.The sea is rising
.The coastal barrier is shrinking

Thats a pretty damning list. NOLA is only the first city on this list, more are comming in the future. Increased hurricanes will prove the levee systems to be futile. Hopefully we will learn to run from the water quickly before spending billions of tax dollars on failures.
Hey cyclone, how would your tunnels stop rising sea levels due to land based snow and glaicer melting?
cyclonebuster i will hot spam evere time you talk about your tunnels like Aron said keep the tunnels in your blog or or your post will be spam and i have spam 2 or 3 or your post tonight so far so keep the tunnels in your own blog or they will be spam this like Aron said
Perhaps water can be launched into space in order to stop sea level rise... lol
folks if you want a heck of a read go check out Stormtop's Katrina archives (see Califonia's 3:11 am GMT post for details)
500+ posts, this blog thread's getting pretty warm itself. I guess last year left us all a little more than just a bit aware of hurricanes.

In any event, I would like to hereby declare, by the contrarians' invocation of Murphy's law that the upper Texas coast is hereby off limits to hurricanes. I am so overprepared I think I'm starting to feel silly; so it must follow that neither hurricane nor tornado will tresspass near my house this season.

I think it needs one more touch to cinch it in good though. I need to build me a kind of minivan mounted desk-ette so I can operate my home office from the comfort of the emptied out and frozen interior of the minivan. The worst thing about Rita (other than being without power for days) was that it was blistering hot for days after she passed... I'm used to hot, but dang that was aweful.
Sorry there Lucky for feeding the troll.

Here is my take on it.

Large scale weather modification for the benefit of population centers will always fail.



Using levees to protect farmland from the average floods seems to work. If the flood becomes too severe, there is only moderate loss of crops.
Using levees to protect cities from "century" floods is expensive, proven to fail in adverse conditions, puts populations at unnecessary risk, and causes even worse flooding down stream.

Las Vegas

Low desert humidity levels, make air conditioning cheap and easy. A well watered green lawn is beautiful. Who doesn't want a swimming pool in there back lawn.
Doing the same thing with 100,000 households raises the humidity levels requiring the AC to run more often, requiring more power to be generated per capita.

Both are examples of people managing water poorly. but they learned this after the unexpected consequences. Why does anybody think that building hundreds/thousands of tunnels in the ocean is going to result in anything less then a disaster.

Instead playing the Dr. Evil/James Bond mega machine card, lets do what works.

.Stop building on islands and low lying areas.
.Build houses/building close to the coast to resist at least 100MPH wind loads.

And if you really believe that global warming is human induced and want to spend billions on wacky projects, why not huge carbon sequestering machines that suck CO2 out of the air.
533. Inyo
I don't think there is time or space for 50 North Atlantic hurricanes in a year. I don't think there will be a year round hurricane season even in the 'worst case' scenario because winter storms would still occur (and perhaps be stronger) and would cause shear
Perhaps water can be launched into space in order to stop sea level rise... lol

Heh, I had a nutty idea along the same line. For the oceans/atmosphere to loose heat it has to leave the planet. Just build a tube to space and pump water thru it. The latent heat will be directly radiated in to space, there for not 'global' any longer. Anything less is just using a heat sink. Now the oceans are big and it has taken them a long time to warm to there present tempertures from the last ice age, but when you reach the point the lower layers warm you are seriously....

Using the ocean as a wide scale heat sink is just as smart as using the atmosphere as a wide scale carbon sink.
Posted By: SafeInTexas at 11:37 PM CDT on May 02, 2006.
Keeping tune with MichaelSTL , more hurricanes may be a long term benefit to the people who lived along the coast.

Large numbers of hurricanes in the short term will devalue ocean front property along the low lying areas of the gulf and east coast. Banks will no longer loan to build too low or too close to the sea.

ATUALLY THE PRICE WENT UP AFTER KATRINA AND IVAN...now instead of houses we will have STUPID condos like FLORIDA........and guess who is encouraging the sales(insurance company's for HIGER RATES)...after a major hurricane all is new and people want to reinvest...Property in Gulf Shoars After IVAN went sky high..now with room for new blood on the Ms.coast their property is for higher now,what once was houses will be commercial and carry that high front foot price..If you research youy will see property has become WORTH more after a cane
537. code1
Torches out already Dr. M!!! I agree with barefootontherocks, even though the post was a joke. If you want to make looooonnnng posts, please do so in your own blogs. Takes to long to scroll past that which you don't want to read.
Intresting side note on insurance. Allstate is now only writing policies for auto in coastal areas. They won't write any property or boat policies. I canceled and moved to Nationwide. It is a shame that the insurance companies did not bank roll there profits for a rainy day. They sure need it now.
Don't read the long posts if you don't want to code. Leave the debate free and open here. Again if they want to let us rate the most informative posts and have them in a side blog that would be great.
540. code1
Trust me SJ, I don't! Just on dial up at my current location and I remember seeing many others who have dial up only, and the problems they had with it. I see it first hand for the first time now. I use the ignore button quite well actually. See ya later. Good to see you back as well, along with the others.
A view 20 most recent posts would solve that dial up problem to some extint code.
Good to see you also code.

Hey Califonia,

Please feel free to correct me where I am wrong in my fair and completely objective comparison of STORMTOPS forecasts and the NHC ones.

You know I respect you and consider you a friend and we get along great and you know that you strongly encouraged me to write a detailed rebuttal about why I couldn't understand your conclusions on your webpage and offered to create a webpage for me with my rebuttal so that everyone can compare our two opinions.

What I find so astonishing is that if one reads that webpage objectively as I did, how can they not come to the same conclusion as I easily have about STORMTOPS erroneous forecasts and the TRUTH that the NHC deserves the credit you and too many others, especially himself, are giving to him.

This has zero to do with or shouldn't in any way be based on a personal like or dislike of him or me for that matter.

In reality, the facts speak for themselves and don't need our spin per say for my blog simply presents the comparison in their own words and even begins by giving STORMTOP credit for doing better than the NHC early on.

Hi hurricanechaser ive been reading the blogs on here since last june im from Gulfport, MS ive never really participated in any blogs except in late aug when Katrina was bearing down on us.. I wanted to post this comment in your blog to tell you that i agree with you. I really do get annoyed with ST's outreageous predictions (except the SW movement and the CAT 5 predictions) and then when he gets back on here he basically pats himself on the back and blasts the NHC and then says he gets a written letter thanking him i hardly doubt that i mean all last summer basically every storm in or near the gulf he predicted would hit the central gulf coast most specifically SE LA and not to mention the outreagous predictions that Hurricane Emily right off the Mexican coast would move south stall out in the Bay of Campeche and the speed NE toward the again central gulf coast i find it very coincedental that he lives in New Orleans and basically every storm in or near the gulf he predicted to hit the central gulf coast i personally think he is trying to draw attention to himself and actually wants these storms to hit SE LA and i think 95% of the people just read his posts because of the humor and the rediculousness of some of his blogs I mean seriously all the storms he predicted to hit SE LA/MS coast he was bound to get at least one right and he did..i mean c'mon a blind person shooting a basketball is bound to make one shot and Katrina was ST's basket! wait till the hurricane season starts up this year and see how many storms he "predicts" will hit the central gulf coast (SE LA/MS coast) it will be amuzing lets just hope for the sake of the people on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and Southeast Louisiana ST doesn't make another "basket"

Thank You
547. WSI
Deep thoughts, by WSI.... :)

Even a blind squirrel will find a nut.
548. WSI
Good thing on the plane though. Was a little infuriating to see the planes made for hurricane hunting not going into hurricanes.
Good to see you WSI.

Chaser-Leave it be. Stormtop either had more insight on Katrina then the NHC did or he got lucky and like a previous post said that should all come out in the wash this year. I think ST did base his Katrina judgement on the current weather data at the time, but again none of us have a true way of knowing if it was a geuss or not.
550. IKE
Looks like more of the same this summer/fall on this blog. Bitching, complaining, comparing, blah...blah...blah

There are folks on here a lot smarter than I would ever dream of being when it comes to where hurricanes are going, etc., but get along with each other...JEEZ!

Twenty-eight days until June 1st....Florida needs rain...I'm sure a TS would help them...no hurricanes please....probably too much too ask...
hurricanechaser wrote:

"I know I kinda got carried away there (what else is new) and your logic is indeed correct about the wobbles resulting often times from interaction with land."

outrocket wrote:

"In all what happens is as the eye nears shore the eye wall interacts with land and the part of the eyewall nearing the shore or on it is slowed by the friction with land(obstacles)..this allows the part of the eyewall over the water to be rotating faster around the eye causing a "hooking effect" which tends to make the east side outrun the west side of the eye wall on land falling hurricanes..that hook would reflect in a eastward looking jog you will see this often...as for Dennis's east wiggle last year that was caused by shear off the yucatan pennisula:)...hope that helps"

Thanks, chaser and outrocket...that's pretty much what I figured...the friction slows the front (North) side of the storm, causing the back (South) side, which is still over water and thus subject to less friction, to "hook" or "pinwheel" around to the East (right).
Anyone notice the cluster of thunderstorms along the equator near the mouth of the Amazon?

GFS seems to drift this feature northward and create a low pressure area once it gets above about 5N.
Here is the link to the image of the P-3 Orion in the salvage yard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base if anyone is interested.


Keys are getting ready for the season...by moving out!

rxse - If you use the link button in between the bold and italics buttons above the comment section then you can have an actual hyperlink instead of just copying and pasting long addresses. Much easier for people to view links that way.

Intresting article though. I feel bad for the locals who will not be able to afford to stay.
Hey everyone,

Why can't just one person please correct me with FACTS on one thing I wrote that is no correct about this topic based on the facts contained therein?

Secondly, why can't people understand that my pure motives for this blog is to present ONLY the FAIR and OBJECTIVE FACTS about the amazing accuracy of the NHC forecasts and how they were NOT responsible for over a thousand deaths as STORMTOP still insists and if people were truly objective, they would realize he, not I, am the one trying to DISCREDIT people (i.e. NHC)which is a real matter of life and death if people could truly understand where I am coming from and is NOT an attack personally on STORMTOP.

It would be different if I was making ASSUMPTIONS like the others who are the real instigators and didn't simply provide the comparisons in his very own words.

Ok Chaser enough already i'm sick of seeing the same ol crude from you. SHut Up and let it die. We all now know from your endless bantor where you stand on this. Geeeez......

sorry folks but enough is enough....please mark as obscene for i don't want to muck up the blog like some people have done....... this is all i'm going to say about this.....

I am not complaining about the NHC or the job they did in forcasting any storm. I will also tell you that if you think anyone is ever RIGHT and WRONG in forcasting then you are sadly mistaken. There is more accurate and less accurate, but not right and wrong. Four days out StormT stated Pass Christian while the NHC was still on the Apalachacola area. This being said StormT mas more accurate in his 72+ hr forcast for Katrina. I also think that the NHC should have been pushing harder to get the evacs started in NO once they realized that it was Midnight and the models jumped to NO and there forcast was going to have to make a substantial jump to the W. The NHC nor StormT are perfect and no one should have the false since of security that either are.

I don't have the HTML "tools" when I post. Am I missing something here? All I get is this small form to type in and "post comment" button. Do I have to be a paid member to get the standard forum HTML tools?


rxse right above the "Your Comment" box should be a line labeled "Selected Text" and if you click the "Link" Button then you should be able to enter a page address and have it show up as a link.
Hey Stormjunkie i was on last summer and started reading blogs on here in june and i agree that ST said Pass Christian when the NHC still had Apalachicola, but ST was predicting just about every storm in or near the gulf to hit the central gulf coast more specifically SE LA and its just a coincedence that he lives in New Orleans
Agreed GPT and that is why I am saying that it will all come out in the wash this year as long as ST continues to post his predictions. He will either be more accurate or less accurate and we will see.

Let's move on is my main point. Hows the dust, sea temps, shear, etc.
rxse, I think you can also just use straight html code if you know your tags.
I am fortunate to live in an area that is well covered as far as tornado sirens go, but some areas in Central Indiana are not so lucky. Here is a link to the three part "Cause for Alarm" series.


This is all I get:


Okay, my .05 cents worth (inflation lol)

I think that anyone at risk from a tropical cyclone that relies upon any forecaster's or committee's opinion is not taking responsibility for their own safety. I am not trained nor conversant in the meteorological sciences, but can understand easily the language. When a TC threatens, I use all the information and opinions I can lay my eyes on, and make my own informed decision, and take responsibility for those choices.

The real beauty of a site like this is education and those of you that ARE knowledgeable can share what you think; the rest of us learn and maybe share some of our own knowledge. I could care less if this or that person is right or wrong -- impossible to measure anyway. Kudos, BTW to SJ.... that's exactly right... it's degrees of accuracy or probabilities. Good also, to see all the ol' players back here.

I understand if Chaser is upset with an inference that the NHC caused deaths. In my opinion, that would be a rediculous thing to assert. I did not read ST's comments that way, more of a "bragging-rights" thing, and I don't care to debate my opinion of this with anyone. Either way, opinions can be debated, but not proven, at least within the context of a logical arguement. Saying the same thing over and over again does not add weight to the arguement.

Hmmm. If I charge by the word, that should be at least my .25 worth lol! Sorry it was so lengthy all

that's not going to improve with age. lol
what all play nic on DR M blog now lol
Settle down Jeffmanweather. We are playing nice.

"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them" A. Einstein
well said !!! Lets not dwell on the past but put our resources to work for this up coming season...
"Don't laugh Carbon Nano tubes are up to the task of doing just that. I have a plan of using them to pump Hydrogen in one tube and Oxygen in another all the way to space.Anyways, the tunnels generate large amounts of hydro electricity which curb the warming problem."

This is my new sig on my site. ROFL.
SJ Best quote you ever posted.
"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them" A. Einstein.

Continued actions will acquire the same result.

Sales Training 101!
A bit out of context but for those on the west coast...

ISSUED AT 1631Z 03 MAY 2006







ORIGIN TIME - 1527Z 03 MAY 2006




-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1551Z 03 MAY
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1557Z 03 MAY
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 1622Z 03 MAY
FIJI SUVA 18.5S 178.5E 1704Z 03 MAY



I believe they have upgraded that earthquake to an 8.0 .
iher 8.3
I just saw 8.1.

But either way, it was STRONG.

When will they know if a tsunami is going to hit? Like... when will the threat be over?
Looks like a spin in the eastern Pacific, too.

This is showing a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific.
USGS has it as an 8.0:

2006/05/03 15:26 M 8.0 TONGA Z= 16km 20.03S 174.23W

This information is provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.
(Address problems to: sedas@ghtmail.cr.usgs.gov)

These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.

A magnitude 8.0 earthquake IN TONGA has occurred at:
20.03S 174.23W Depth 16km Wed May 3 15:26:35 2006 UTC

Time: Universal Time (UTC) Wed May 3 15:26:35 2006
Time Near Epicenter Thu May 4 04:26:35 2006
Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) Wed May 3 11:26:35 2006
Central Daylight Time (CDT) Wed May 3 10:26:35 2006
Mountain Daylight Time (MDT) Wed May 3 09:26:35 2006
Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) Wed May 3 08:26:35 2006
Alaska Daylight Time (ADT) Wed May 3 07:26:35 2006
Hawaii Standard Time (HST) Wed May 3 05:26:35 2006

Location with respect to nearby cities:
155 km (95 miles) S of Neiafu, Tonga (pop 3,000)
160 km (100 miles) NE of NUKU'ALOFA, Tonga (pop 37,000)
455 km (280 miles) S of Hihifo, Tonga
2145 km (1340 miles) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand

For maps, additional information, and subsequent updates,
please consult: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/


Either way, that's BIIIG

okay, back ta work for me


I respect your opinion but respectfully disagree.

Not once did STORMTOP predict the landfall location correctly in contrast to the NHC.

Seondly, he was forecasting a 170-180 mph and suggested even stronger hit which was not even close no matter how one tries to rationalize the destruction for there is a HUGE diference in the Katrina that hit and if she had come ashore at that intensity.

I am simply amazed that people really can find fault with the NHC on their superb Katrina forecast for 72 hours prior to landfall when watches aren't even issued to begin voluntary evacuatins prior to 36-48 hours to landfall at a time STORMTOP was all over the place changing forecast landfalls whicvh if had ben done by the NHC would have caused mass choas and most likely deaths because he was still forecasting a 180 mph category five betwen Pass CHristian and Gulfport which would mean many New Orleans residents would have not left or would have returned home 22 hours before landfall and tried to take to the roads too late not too mention those who would take tothe roads that shouldn't have that would cause such gridlock because of such indescion and changes in forecast location from as far as WEST of Grand Isle to Gulfport all within the 72 hours that the NHC was right where they should be that saved thousands of lives in contrast to what is incorrectly ASSUMED and ignores the FACTS themselves as posted in my blog.


Therein lies the problem, I am not talking about my opinion versus another, I am talking about undeniable FACTS n the own words of the NHC and STORMTOP.

Secondly, STORMTOP was not simply bragging because he has constantly made it clear in this blog that he is accusing the NHC of those deaths and suggesting they be ignored.

That is a very serious thing and not about him personally or my opinions.


Just for the record, I am not interested in STORMTOPS apology (as a blogger mentioned wasn't coming of course) for this is not about me at all.

It is about the INCORRECT ASSUMPTION that the NHC was inaccurate intheir forecasts 72 hours out to landfall and caused over a thousand people to die and his intentional comments to tell others to ignore the NHC and only listen to him which is very serious.

People can't seemto understand that this has NOTHING to do with me but about the FACTS regarding STORMTOPS FALSE accusations about the NHC and how well they truly did.

The fact is that he couldn't have done worse from 72 hours to landfall in comparison and he is claiming credit that the NHC deserves.

Has anyone seriously read my blog before they made these opinions which are completely rebutted by the FACTS in their very own words not mine.

I am very disappointed in every single person who can so quickly ASSUME that I am attacking STORMTOP or that it's ok that people REALLY attack me like the comments in blog and not say one word to addres how WRONG that is but are so quick to question my sincerity and pure motives and NOT read my blog before jumping to such FALSE comments about me and what I said.


You are not unbiased as your previous comments prove and it's a shame you CHOOSE to ACT so close minded and judgemental (not saying you are that way all the time but you are acting that way) in my own personal opinion when you have no idea what my true motives are and why this was extremely important because I do care about people lives and such FALSE and misguided beliefs/opinions about the NHC are a serious matter in my humble opinion.

Brevard county fire update. Just down to the 5300 acre one, burnin in unpopulated swamp. The big west wind shift they were predicting hasn't happened yet. Actually it is still, something not seen in atleast a week. Drove by where it jumped 528, got pics, if they're any good i'll post them.

As for the la nina, yeah I'm 2 day late on the Monday update, so here it is & I'll elaberate more than usual~

credit NOAA

Nino 1&2 ~that's the area off South America, on the eastern side of the pacific. That is the predictor of what is to come in the other regions. Nino 4 is the west side of the pacific, Nino 3 lies in between. Things were looking a lot better at the beginning of March as Nino 1 welled up a little warm water, which has now moderated 3 & 4 to nuetral. (this also brought a little rain to Fl for about a week, as 3 was slightly warmer than neutral) But the end of march has brought a plumit to SST anomilys in area 1, colder than previously in this la nina.
Look a small spot at -5

Credit NOAA

I don't think La Nina is gonna be over anytime soon.
Dr. Masters has a new blog up.