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A mid-Atlantic tropical wave worth watching; more on this year's steering currents

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:19 PM GMT on July 03, 2007

A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 9N 38W, has grown more organized since yesterday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and this morning's 4:28am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 35 mph. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 20 knots in the region over the next two days. This is low enough wind shear to allow some slow development. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is above the 26 C minimum temperature tropical storms typically need to form. There is one cluster of strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation, but dry air to the north appears to be limiting the thunderstorm activity. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50-100 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, but does not have a very good handle on it, since it is showing far too slow of a forward speed. Our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not develop the system. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Given this fact, plus the presence of so much dry air near a relatively small circulation, I am not expecting this to become a tropical depression. Movement of 96L will be just north of due west over the next few days at 15 mph, as seen in the model forecast plots (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

More on steering currents for this hurricane season
Yesterday, I posted my bi-monthly hurricane outlook, for the first half of July. Since it was getting a bit long, I presented only a short steering current analysis. More follows here. There are several ways to look at steering currents. I presented the position of the surface high pressure system known as the Bermuda High (or Bermuda-Azores High). Another way is to study how close to the surface a pressure of 500 millibars (mb) is found. When there is low pressure aloft, due to a trough of low pressure, the height at which a pressure of 500 millibars is found moves closer to the surface. If one plots up the "500 mb height anomaly"--the difference of where a pressure of 500 mb is found above the surface, compared to the average height from a climatology of the past 30 years--one gets a good measure of where above or below average storminess occurred. Higher than average 500 mb heights imply less storminess and possible drought conditions. The 500 mb height anomaly plot for June 2007 (Figure 2) shows higher than average heights across the southwestern U.S., where drought and high temperatures were observed in June. Lower than average 500 mb heights imply an above normal preponderance of troughs of low pressure and thus storminess. This was the case over Texas and Oklahoma in June. If these troughs are over the Atlantic, they act to recurve hurricanes out to sea at the longitude they are at. This only occurs if a hurricane penetrates far enough north to "see" the southernmost part of the trough of low pressure. Typically, this happens northward of about 20 degrees north latitude. Figure 2 shows lower than average 500 mb heights occurred over most of the Atlantic, meaning there were many more troughs of low pressure than usual. Had any hurricanes occurred over the Atlantic north of about 20 degrees north latitude, they would have gotten caught up in one of the troughs and recurved out to sea. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows a continuation of this above average frequency and intensity of troughs of low pressure over the Atlantic--much like we saw in 2006. Thus, we can expect any tropical cyclones that penetrate north of about 20 degrees north latitude to get recurved. This will very likely be the case for 96L, if it ever becomes a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Difference in height (in decameters, or tens of meters) from average of the 500 millibar height above the surface for June 2007. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Drakoen
development if any will be slow to occur JP.
Hey boys...Looks like this one's going to fizzle out. Better luck next time.
Too much dry air to the north...
1506. scla08
I think the disturbance has been doing a good job fighting off the dust so far. I don't see why that would change in the future, unless it starts moving NW or something.
JP, Chiklit. I'm falling off the fence but i'm still there. I'm just not sure anymore.
1508. C2News
I think this system still has a chance to develop, although it will be probably slow to occur.
cloud tops warm by 10 degrees now at -55 were -65 hour and half ago going going
1511. scla08
There IS a new blow up of convection, in case ya'll missed my post from earlier...
Link
I don't see it scla08
1513. KRL
Cool pic of C5 Hurricane Mitch at 195 MPH 26OCT98


Hurricane Mitch
1514. Drakoen
Here is the SAL combined with the models. As i said development if any would be slow to occur.
1515. scla08
It's on the left side of the coc..
Again, doesn't anyone remember the DOC's blog (or somewhere) about the SAL? Am I wrong on this?
1517. Drakoen
i see it. its not much though. convection will keep refiring as part of the dinural phase. We all want to know if it can hold it after dinural max. Dry air/SAL to the north limits and confines the convection. Again its a wait and see game. If it can move out of that area it will have a a better chance.
JP,
So SAL can just limit convection? Or destroy the center?
1519. Drakoen
the models show it moving out of that hostile environment. And local meteorologist and Dr. Steve Lyons are saying development is possible but would be slow to occur.
How long will it take it to make it through the dust if it does make it?
1521. Drakoen
WIth its current motion 2 days away from the weaker SAL.
1522. scla08
Rob Perillo, a local meteorologist in Lafayette, LA, just said that the disturbance may make an interesting senario for mid to late next week in the Gulf. But as of right now, that's just speculation in my book.
1523. flsky
Getting a nice soaking in Port Orange, Fl at the moment.
TCFA for 96L...

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040001Z JUL 07//
WTNT01 KNGU 040000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 39.8W TO 11.2N 46.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL. SYNOPTIC
DATA 031800Z DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, A WELL DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND GOOD CYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS DERIVED FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION QUICKSCAT PASS AND INFARED SATELLITE DERVIED WINDS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPS ARE ESTIMATED AT 82F FROM SST ANALYSIS AND WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050000Z JULY 2007.//


Graphic Here
thanks Drak
African dust outlook
African dust is thought to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, although its role is not well understood. As I explained in a blog last year, research shows that the presence of drought conditions in the Sahel region of Africa the previous year will increase the amount of dust wafting over the Atlantic during hurricane season. This occurs because drought-damaged soil takes about a year to dry up and create lots of dust to be blown away. Last year saw average to above-average rains during the rainy season (June-September) over the Sahel (Figure 5). This was also the case in 2005, so in theory, two straight years of good rains in the Sahel should act to keep African dust levels over the Atlantic no higher than average this hurricane season. The last significant drought years in the Sahel were 2001 and 2002.


...found it myself, thanks! Appreciate your comments to my question. I'm out for the night.
hurricane23 where did you get that from?
1528. Drakoen
Hurricane23 you da man. Always uptodate. That data only proves my logic.
oh lol someone found the ATCF
1531. Drakoen
Within the next 12-24 hours thats a little scary. This analysis is very in-depth.
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL. SYNOPTIC
DATA 031800Z DOES INDICATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, A WELL DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND GOOD CYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS DERIVED FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION QUICKSCAT PASS AND INFARED SATELLITE DERVIED WINDS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPS ARE ESTIMATED AT 82F FROM SST ANALYSIS AND WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
I don't get how the winds are 25 to 30 knots though. For one, convection is limited. For two, Steve Lyons says the winds are only 15-20 mph. Who to trust? Hmm... :/
It's a teaser...nothing's happening with all that dry air to the north. If it doesn't move north then it lands in Trinidad (Hey Pottery2!) and then slams into South America.
Hi, all. About a fourth time poster here, though been a lurker for at least a couple of years since I found this blog. I'm the office "meteorologist", in that people come to me when they want to know when the rain will start and how bad it will be and stuff, but I have none of the expertise most all of you do. My online "tropical" claims to fame were in predicting, within about five miles, where Katrina and Rita would come ashore. No real big on Katrina, but two days out for Rita they were still saying just north of Houston, and I was saying the Louisiana border. So not a complete neophyte, but close.

Anyrate, I just see things as being different now. I think there are things in play now besides ENSO and SAL and MJO and the like. No one predicted what happened in Florida in 2004, though they called for an above average year. Nobody was right about 2005 and the incredible extremes in it, and very, very few called 2006 even close to correctly.

I think Barry was a precursor. I forget who posted it, but did you see how 96L is fighting off the SAL so far? Many of you have mentioned it... 96L is a fighter. I think, like many of you, if it can survive the next two days, stay south of the model tracks, that it just might turn into something that has to be dealt with. I think that if it survives, and ends up near Jamaica/Cuba as a small Cat 2, that we're going to know what sort of tropical season we're going to have.

I think the dynamics are different, and that the old rules no longer fully apply. That's not a prediction, that's just my opinion, and one that I hope to be wrong about. But I think we just might know for sure... in two days, or in seven.

Sorry for the babble, but I just wanted to say, just wanted it on the record.

Now back to persistent blob watching. :-)

(the other) Jo
Yeah Chicklit, it is definitely a teaser. I don't understand what it will do anymore. I just don't know anymore. I think it may develop, but at the same time, it may not.
looks like they were hestitant to release that ATCF.. issued at 12am UTC and just released to the public?
Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 11:20 PM EDT on July 03, 2007. (hide)
hurricane23 where did you get that from?

It came from NRL which the place you want to look at when an invest is running.

Page Here
1539. Drakoen
LOL at teaser. They just put official data there about tropical cyclone formation just for giggles. This is from people with PHD in this stuff.
SEVERVE WEATHER NOTE ILLINOS SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES
G'nite all...Who knows, maybe 96L will beat the odds, but I wouldn't bet on it. Seen too many ambitious little storms try to cross the Atlantic and then get ripped to shreds to have any faith that this one can survive. I pray for its demise (okay, so shoot me!).

1542. Drakoen
oh well. For now i'm siding with the people with the PHD and the model guidance lol. seems like the way to go.
THANKS hurricane23!!!!!!
KEEPEROFTHEGATE

yup I hear the thunder already
You can clearly make out the center on this loop.
1546. Drakoen
In a situation like this i have no other choice. Thanks for that hurricane23.
oh yea i seeit its very clear and

You can clearly make out the center on this loop.



its not a td yet hard to believe with a tight center like that dam im confused now what to think
1549. Drakoen
only half the center is exposed...
Adrian, what do you think this thing will do? If it strengthens, when will it likely make its turn?
1551. Drakoen
hurricane23 whats your thoughts on this with this information coming in?
1552. Drakoen
new area of convection building on the Sw side of the coc.
Ok, it appears the slightly emphemeral isn't any of your bags, so let me get more specific. Would any of you say that what's about to hit KOTG is a derecho? It looks very bad...
With systems like this it would not surprise me if it were to develope another LLC closer to the convection.

Morning visibles will tell us alot.NHC is also waiting on this.
jeez everytime i'm going to log off someone posts something good!!
Adrian, thanks! Again, with development, where do you think it'd make a turn northwards?

Your posts are great, thanks. Keep 'em coming!
1559. Drakoen
the peak of the dinural max phase will be interesting.
new info in on 96l lets turn it over to hrricane 23 at the weather desk take it away 23 . we will have a report from taz soon whos is standing by at the nhc .
Posted By: weatherboykris at 3:42 AM GMT on July 04, 2007.
Look at the map below.It shows the relationship between June and July SAL stregnth(as expressed by mid-level RH) and August and September SAL stregnth.Notice how the entire East Atlantic shows a negative relationship.Put simply,this means that on average,the SAL stregnth reverses itself from June/July to August/September.When it's strong early in the season,it becomes weak during the peak,and vice versa.


Thanks, kris...that better explains my question from earlier about SAL and Doc's post earlier this year -- which I believe after reading your post, that he meant SAL will be less a factor later mid-late season...and consequently more danagerous for the Verde season!

Thanks for that...helped a bunch!
well 96L have a 100% ch of be comeing a TD and 90% ch of be comeing a TS has it move W to WNW on its way to FL it will get stronger FL need to keep a eye on 96L
96L is moveing WEST-NORTHWESTWARD at this time wish would take it to the E coast of FL
with all this new info from you guys on out in the field im sticking to my word as i posted yesterday this will be introduced a s a ts chantal and not td 3 sorry but thats my gut felling if of corse it does form .
that convection firing in gulf over mex extreme southern texas gets out over warm water may pose some watchin sst high ther lots of instability over entire area been long while since we've had a south paw thats a good question when was the last storm to dev in west gulf and track east nor east over gulf
Taz, it may look that way now; but, it's still got a long way to go to do that. It has to hold itself together consistently, and it's got to escape the ITCZ, too. Lots of factors yet.

Hang in there, keep looking and calling it, too. Someone's bound to get it right on here. The NHC obviously still has its suspicions that it's going to do something....what who knows yet?

But, hey Floridians I'm sure'll start giving all these blobs a lil more attention. Thanks for giving them a headsup on any of them. Safety is the main thing!
Keeper that convection is tropical moisture from a low aroud junction texas and it is moving west, so no chance for development there. But it is forecasted to dump up to 6 in just south of Houston tomorrow, already got some good storms coming now, as if we need them.
about size?
s
I guess 96L is a goner! Why don't we all celebrate???!! lol
Well, back to lurking, I guess. I think airman in Portugal was the only one who ever even said hi to newbie me, back when I first posted. Trying not to sound snippy, but you really should post the requirements here to be members of the posting club.

Hang in there, Taz, as I actually believe you spoke to the truth of the way things are now when you posted info about that Antarctic storm earlier today. I think somehow you realize that there are more important things than watching the closest buoy data. :-)

My apologies to all, as I get weak and vain sometimes. I hope you're going to be ok there, KOTG.

Jo
Hey all,

I've been reading the comments on the two stories about Proenza, and some of them are screams. Also one somebody posted the URL for Wunderground's tropical page! LOL Overall, it seems like people are concerned that forecast quality will decrease if QuikSCAT isn't replaced, and a lot believe it's all an AnimalFarm style plot to get rid of Proenza and keep people from criticizing the government.

AND some mean comments about Lixion Avila. Is he really a bad forecaster? I've found his discussions sometimes amusing, but not particularly WRONG . . .
will the dr please report to the emergency room we need to put 96l on life supports at this time it needs oxygen will it make it thru the night . dont give it its last rights yet . it just might make it
Hey, flibinite...yep, how rude of all of us. You're right...guess, most of us just caught up in the lil swirl as season gets cranked up. This place can get really tense sometimes.

uuhhhmm, WELCOME to the board! Hudson River? Wow! I'm sure you have some perfect storm interest. Welcome aboard and post away. I'm sure you'll have some great things to offer. We need some new thinking all along! GOOD POST, TOO, btw!!!
flib...its getting late and not many around. NO min requirements to post as I do frequently and im prettyr sure I wouldnt meet them if they existed. Went bake and read your post and you make some good points!!! oh and HI!!! LOL
flibinite - i don;t think any one does it on purpose. I'm new here too and not everyone chats with me or answers every question I have. I think sometimes it just gets over looked becuse so many people are posting at once. welcome abord!
Posted By: weatherblog at 12:08 AM EDT on July 04, 2007.
I guess 96L is a goner! Why don't we all celebrate???!! lol


72hr Surface Map from the NOAA
1581. cjnew
flibinite I enjoyed your post very much.
I only lurk in here though. but I'm posting for you :)
hope you have a goodnight!

Geez, Jo.

At least let me read the new posts before u get all huffy.

I thought you said some sensible things about the game being different from the past. It will take the season to bear you out, though.
Here is the early intensity forecast in knots.
Link
Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403
we got a blip - 65 cloud top detection nor zone lol
same thing


Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster
I would post the image, however I'm having trouble doing so.
If any development to a td/ts , it'd take days of slow development. Convection is on the downfall...dry air is over-taking all the convection on the north side of 96L. Shear and dust may be a problem in a few days. AND it's still only a un-impressive (as of now) invest.


i'll check back tomorrow morning to see if anything has changed...as of now, though, it is in a weakening phase. But, as we all have seen, a few hours ago it was looking very healthy and now it is weakening. which shows how fast these systems can change. though I expect in 7-8 hours it'll be looking the same.


Unless something unexpected happens...let's wait and see (as we have been saying for days now lol)...
copy the url and paste it in the address bar Taz
post removed since hotlinking is prohibited by the site image came from
hi flibinite.
thanks HadesGodWyvern


well good night
must be a direct linking block on that site.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:26 PM CDT on July 03, 2007.

Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403


That site forbids you from hotlinking images... upload to ImageShack...


Web sites (such as blogs, media) may use images from this site occasionally, provided that the full graphic is shown and the image quality is not degraded. Such usage must meet the following guidelines:
It is prohibited for web site operators to download images from this site to use on their own site on a regular basis.
It is prohibited for web sites to upload images from this page (i.e. hot-linking), whether this is done server-side or client-side.
If you are going to use an occasional image, say on a blog or in a news story, download the image to your site and serve the image from your site.

Link
you're welcome Taz
Now I understand
1600 comments wow good day for blog
You may have to first save the image to your computer before uploading it (right-click - Save Picture As, then upload it somewhere).
The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. The NHC vision is to be America's calm, clear and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats.

Found this at the NHC website.

Do you think NOAA is gonna call Proenza out because he does not project the "calm, clear and trusted voice in the eye of the storm" type image?
Hey guys, I have something to say about 96L.

It is most certainly in a weakening phase. If that lasts or doesn't last, remains to be seen.

The main thing I wanted to say is according to Wikipedia, the wave that spawned Hurricane Bret in 1999, which was a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane at its peak, was barely discernable at times, yet it still developed. This wave is barely discernable as just a swirl with a few thunderstorms.

Just keep watching. If it develops it develops, if not, it doesn't. August and September is when the real action'll start anyway.
thank you, jp
I wouldn't want to see a storm in the caribbean in favorable atmospheric conditions. check out the heat potential especially under and around cuba leading into the Gulf of Mexico.
Link
I don't think that it is really weakening; convection appears to be increasing again (always remember that weak systems like this often exhibit large fluctuations in convective activity, over several hours). I would say that it is weakening if convection diminishes and no new activity appears after a while.
Thanks, moonlightcowboy, Bamatracker, Littleninjagrl, cjnew, BahaHurican, and StormThug. I just wanted you to know I read what you said and that I appreciate it, very much. But this seems to be a very technical blog, without a ton of non-meteorological interaction, that only concentrates on the minutiae of tropical development and impact, and that doesn't want to speak to the bigger picture of the changes in global dynamics that 2004 and 2005 portended.

I was going to predict that 96L would have a name by tomorrow's 11 PM update, as I think it still might, but I didn't want to be accused of wishcasting. I still say that, somehow, if it does, or gets TS status shortly thereafter, that it's a strong indicator of the season to come, along with the surprise of Barry, who somehow "created" itself in the face of strong shear and "no-no" forecasting, even by some of the more erudite members of this blog.

I honestly do believe that, and I thank you for taking the time to let me know that you read what I said, however correct or foolish it might have been. :-)

Jo
Agree KoritheMan
I Agree.
i DONNO - its structure seems more defined - weaker convection but it looks like a depression now, at least.

I think it just changed directions and the convection was overshot a bit too. we will see if it builds.

There is just not that much energy in the water there.
Looking at the latest shear maps, it appears 96L is heading into a more favorable environment. However the dry air will in my opinion keep development if any slow for the next couple of days.

goodnight
flibinite, anyobody's welcome to this blog. As we all have in interest in weather. Some people are here to learn and others are here to share there experienced knowledge.

There is no such thing as "wishcasting"; it is banned from this blog. lol

So, anyways, welcome to this blog, as I am looking foward to seeing you here. :)
due to the position of azores high, and the troughs in the Atlantic, I would say at this time that 96L will make it close to the lesser antilles and move harmlessly to the north.
copy and paste this comment and when it happens you can call me a hurricane expert.LOL

love all the links you guys post and the discussions are much better this than years passed. great job, guys
Hello all, I gather most have seen this video by now but I thought I'd post it 'cause it's still pretty awesome video.


http://video.msn.com/v/us/msnbc.htm?g=f91ef032-b8cc-446f-96b1-b04e4bd96ba1&f=00&fg=copy
Flibinite, a purveyor of words(lol), AGAIN, welcome! It's refreshing to see a wordsmith and intelligence used congruently! Your post was thoughtful and well-stated.

Hey guys,

I'm not familiar with UTC time, so I looked it up. What I got was if the UTC time is 04:15, like the current floater is on 96L and add six hours to it, that's the time the image was taken. So, since I live in the central time zone, that would make the most recent satellite imagery 10:15 p.m/11:15 p.m. eastern. In other words, that makes the imagery two hours old.
Look at the spot in the new convection!!!

THAT more than anything - near the core - is the best indicator of tropical conversion.

I have been waiting for that to happen.
Or was that JP and Draekon (misspelled)? Sometimes it all runs together... :-)

Thanks weatherblog and again, moonlightcowboy.
looks like the life supports helped out 96l is making a comeback at 130. am est am i seeing some reds now in the center stay tuned !
Anyone know if what I said is right? Is the satellite loop really over 2 hours old?
There's lots of stratocumulus just to 96L's north, not to mention the overwhelmingly dry air. If this system has any dreams of developing it's going to have to stay south of 12.5N until at least 50W.

This system is going to have trouble maintaining persistant convection, which should delay the attainment of depression status. The mid-level circulation looks good and convection has been flaring in the southern semi-circle.

This is the second invest already in the central/eastern Atlantic. I'm still seeing a situation similar to 1995, with perhaps a few less storms but more close calls for the East Coast.
Convection seems limited on 96L...don't see any changes either. Anybody see something I dont? becasue the way it's looking it could easily dissipate tomorrow...or it could strenghthen.

Let's see how it is in the a.m...

Scenario 1:if there's more convection bursts (heavy) by the morning then a TD or TS is possbile in 24-48 hours...but nothing too significant.

Scenario 2:if it's looking the same it is now then maybe some slow development to a TD if it could escape from the dust and some shear...otherwise dissipation looks reasonable.

Scenario 3:if it is only a naked swirl by morning then dissipation has took place and any re-strenghthining would be very slow indeed...but most likely scenario is further dissipation...though the remenants could go in the caribbean and re-organize, something to watch, but probably not

Out of all the scenario's, scenario 2 seems most reasonable...we'll see in the morning.
stormybil but that probably means it has the full mechanism in place to be a self sustaining system - not so much a wave. If the intense convection continues we will have a tropical depression call very soon.
Ya'll are familiar with the Hebert box, right? A moderate bermuda high would allow storms to head north of Puerto Rico and the deadly Hispaniola, through the Hebert box and into Florida. I live in Homestead and we are way overdue. I'm thinking this year is gonna be like 1947 where we were hit twice, a cat 1 and a cat 3. Of course it all depends on the troughs. The little storms keep the big storm away.
thats what i was looking for thanks bluehaz the herbert box . is this going in that direction
No, no, JP, I understand that, and is why I said what I did. This time you're on one side, and others are on the, um... other. The next time you're on the other side, and they're on the other... or with you on yours. I know it's an inexact science, at best, and I was just saying that I never want either side to "cease and desist" their arguments, because it's from that interplay that the less knowledgeable of us can see both sides of the development/demise equation.

In my heart, though, I still think that somehow 96L will see it through, become something stronger, and that we'll *really* be talking about it a week from now. But please do know that I hope I'm way more than wrong, as no one needs any more funky weather.

Jo
Ahhh I see jp..you SUBTRACT 5 hours from CDT and 4 from EDT.
Awww yes the Hebert box.. You know if the storm goes thru that box then florida is going to get hit. the odds are so unreal but yet so true
Still don't understand why convection isn't firing over the center. Only thing I can figure is that there is decent shear from the north.
So near 10 N 41 W the buoy is at 14.53 N 46 W SO - we should see winds change from the E to the SE to the SW. The red on the IR indicates a significantly colder top. (if it stays)

Usually they die down a bit just before they convert to a tropical system.
The latest model runs do but it's so early in the runs (even though they are very uniform) and the system may yet disintegrate. Keep an eye on future storms. If they head just north of Puerto Rico and into the Turks and Caicos then there is a very good chance of a Florida hit unless a trough pushes down and weakens the high.
So it's a cyclone now right? There's a tropical cyclone formation alert on the NRL website.
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 5:36 AM GMT on July 04, 2007.

So it's a cyclone now right? There's a tropical cyclone formation alert on the NRL website.


if your talking about 96L...it is still an ivest. no TD or TS that I know of...or anybody frankly.
New Canadian says it makes it to Trinidad and Tobago, but dies in the Central Caribbean.
Thanks Kyle - here it is.

This is cool.
Well, jp, the only thing that keeps me from believing what you are saying is that convection was actually over the center earlier, but it looks like it got pushed south. Dry air isn't helping matters, so I think it could be a combination of both.
New Canadian says it makes it to Trinidad and Tobago, but dies in the Central Caribbean.

that model looks like a 3 ring circus
Actually I think it really wasnt a closed circ before, What you are seeing now didnt exist under the clouds. There wasn't a defined center. Remember the lighter bands on the IR are really lower clouds.

The models will need to be rerun if this is a tropical cyclone now - unless they considered that. It completely changes the way this will behave.

And then POOF the red goes away - BUT - the convection is still there.

Oh I think it just made a more southerly turn and overshot it. Ok more wait to see if it comes back.
I find it interesting that the GFDL keeps going up with the possible strength of the system.
any thought on the new wave coming off of africa soon at yes 15 north here is a first this season this high 15 . n
If it's that far north, bil, the SAL will destroy it. Although, it could act to thin out the SAL for future waves.
stormybil--I think dust is a problem though. Also way too out in the Atl. to be watching as of yet...maybe in a week or two though..way too early to tell.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N41W...OR ABOUT 1200 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AS DECREASED SOME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT.
1658. JLPR
Maybe if the convection cover the center.
Then I would say we have a TD or even TS.
exactly jp...but i doubt that'll happen.
I'm still very confused as to what this will do. I think it could die tommorow, but I also think it could be a TD tommorow. Hmmm....
thanks but it seems to be firing up again . if you notice the sal is moving faster to the west than invest is as long as it stays behind it has a window to develope is this correct ?
stormybil, that would be correct. I personally think that the intensity will stay where it's at for now, and only get slightly stronger within the next 3 days, possibly becoming TD3 within that timeframe. This is all assuming conditions stay the way they are now with 96L.

If conditions get better, Tropical Storm Chantal is possible by Thursday. If conditions get worse, this system will probably die.
I donno I think thats just part of the wave - higher pressure creating a steeper pressure gradient behind it and enhancing the convection back there enough to give it a asymmetric appearance.

I think it may look really nice at first light on the vis.
JFLORIDA, what do you think about 96L? Development likely, or dissipation likely? I think both are likely, actually, as I've said quite a number of times.
It has a very nice shape now. I think it is a go but possibly much more slowly than I would like to figure. Im watching the buoy as it approaches. The water temps are around 80 but get higher the more west it goes. I dont think it will dissipate unless a drastic change in the area pattern causes the dry air to move south or the storm to veer north. Just by the shape and symmetry of the storm TD by noon tomorrow - 80% chance is my guess.

Yea - the red is back. TD soon.
Looks like a TD to me by 5am with winds at 30 mph.
Well, according to the NRL site, it may already be a depression, just not "officially".



^^^Click image to enlarge^^^
1671. JLPR
Yeah JFLORIDA It has a little point of red
Tomorrow we may have a td or it could just weaken again and become a swirl of clouds.
Who knows
:S
I bet they won't declare it until the convection is sustained for more than 6-12 hours....

There's no reason to rush it quite yet....
Oh come on stay up - in less than a hour the vis will be up.

Actually that open area on the E side is starting to bother me. ehh - but its probably a local high pressure embedded in the wave.

WOW the tracks above sure shifted south.
yes 309am it was looking pretty bad a couple of hours agao but now its more round with alittle bit of red in the center its really a fighter tho. stay tuned

does anyone know when the next run will be ?
We have a new TD guys.

It's my opinion!!!
We have a new TD guys.

is this oficial or you joking its still invest on the navy site hmmmm

but i woulndt be surpised if it is now its looking good again

1679. C2News
They wouldn't classify td until 5:30
No we don't Weatherfan...maybe tomorrow though (or today)....lol..but it's not official.
so it isnt a td yet c2news ?
Well, as I've been saying, the NRL site has a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on their website. That's an interesting hint for me...
1683. C2News
It may be unofficially a td (which is what I think) but not officially by the NHC...wait till 5:30...even though the NHC is probably reluctant
1684. JLPR
The red is almost gone.
1685. CFLSW
48 hrs from TD I think
1686. CFLSW
Scratch that It had much more Conv. at this time yesterday it may not make it through the day today.
yea this is excruciating.

"it looks good, no bad, ok good again, no bad, better, worse"

Its doing ok and ill leave it at that. I still think TD might be close.

I was looking at the long navy loop and although the shower area has decreased the actual system seems better organized and tighter. so... eh.... ok I guess.
1688. C2News
I do believe this system will become a depression.
1689. CFLSW
JFLORIDA I think you just hit it right on the head
Guys, I bet 96L was strong enough to be a TD last night and tonight, but the NHC is reluctant to classify it because the convection keeps diminishing then refiring.
here we go again it needs life support again at 530 am . will it come back to life . stay tuned
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040912
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
IN EXTENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
04/0545 UTC 10.4N 41.5W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

problem is it looks worse this morning then it did last morning or maybe it is just the way I am looking at it
i agree in a way it does but it is growing size wise if we could see some reds again it will be a td today . so thats what we are waiting for .
I think it's the way you are looking at it. Not saying this cause I want cyclogenesis, but I think so. It does look a bit bad tonight, but not much better than it did the other morning. It keeps refiring and dying over and over. I dunno what to say.
First Visible

well our local news thinks it could get a number as td 3 or a name chantel in the next 24 hours . dont know what they are seeing are we missing something
I just looked at the water vapor loop and it looks as if the dry air is moving faster then the storm which would be good for the storm because there is a lot of moisture behind the dry air so if it stays going slow then it will probably develop.
well..after all the info I received this morning...I predict that the Oreck XL 21 will reach wind speeds equal to a Cat. 2 hurricane..
Posted By: underthunder at 10:02 AM GMT on July 04, 2007.
well..after all the info I received this morning...I predict that the Oreck XL 21 will reach wind speeds equal to a Cat. 2 hurricane..


what are your talking about
aww geez thundercloud...have you never seenan infomercial...or a little humor...so sorry to interupt...
well our local news thinks it could get a number as td 3 or a name chantel in the next 24 hours . dont know what they are seeing are we missing something

They are probably behind by about 12 hours or so. I think within the next 36 hours, it may get a name.
1703. L5
ANY TRUTH TO THE BUZZ THAT NOAA AND NASA ARE IN TALKS WITH THE AIR FORCE TO INITIATE FLIGHTS OF UAV'S INTO TROPICAL EVENTS. DOES ANYONE HAVE OR KNOW OF ANY CONFIRMING INFORMATION OF SAME? INTENT OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH IS TO HAVE ON STATION FOR 24+ HOURS REAL TIME OBSERVATIONS.
Posted By: underthunder at 10:10 AM GMT on July 04, 2007.
aww geez thundercloud...have you never seenan infomercial...or a little humor...so sorry to interupt...

I guess not the one you are talking about

The area of the clouds have increased dramatically this morning It will be interesting to see what happens today
1677 comments will we make it to 2000 before Dr. Masters blogs
96L is hanging in there but Dr. M, weather channel, and other wx sites just aren't excited about it I wonder why? they must know or see something we don't because I can't find any where else except for this blog where anyone believes it will become a TD.
L5 dont yell please, but have not heard such news but sure its coming
interesting I think that today if it moves slowly and allows the dry air to move quickly away like it is doing right now it will be in even a better environment tonight
I think today will be a tough one for 96L it appears that dry air to the North is trying to entrain the system, but 96L has a low cloud deck that is sheltering itself to the North keep an eye on that, if it loses that cloud deck it could be over, if it can hold it, it will survive
Center is exposed again
96L is exposed! the actual low is to the north of all convection and the convection it does have is still down and along/a part of the ITCZ and plus if 96L is having this hard of a time with dry air that's not even that extremely dry or right over the system it just spells out no-go on developing (just) to me. Maybe this is why Dr. M doesn't feel like this will make it to TD and I'm starting to agree.
96l is a real fighter! Still hasn't given in to that dry air.

Looks like the dry air to the north is having its way with 96L...Anybody making guesstimations?
1714. Hediaz
I can not believe system 96L developmemt prior to reach 66 longitude due to the dust and dry air at the north of the system.After longitude 66 ocean water are hotter and the air more humid if mantain a low latitude motion is posible the development of a tropical storm.
I agree that the dry air is winning the battle against 96L and unless it gets its act together and soon and maintains then this may be just be the start of 96L spinning down to an a bare and exposed area of low pressure never to become Chantel.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N42W...OR ABOUT 1200 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AS DECREASED SOME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT.
Still, they're not counting it out...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040912
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED
IN EXTENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Here comes some more fun..

1721. C2News
gfdl has it running into south america...
1722. C2News
wel////
1723. C2News
buh bye! i will check back later dudes
1724. Dakster
BREAKING NEWS- From the Miami Herald

Storm intensifies: Forecasters want director removed

The director of the hurricane center confronted a new challenge as three top forecasters called for his departure.

Looks like the top brass wants Proenza removed too. His staff has rebelled against him and are calling for his removal as well.

Link: http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/159712.html

Things must be really bad to remove the leader, just as the season is just getting started.


1725. Drakoen
seems that the convection i still limited with the system.
1726. C2News
If they want to remove Bill Proenza, I will drag my rear down to Miami and protest outside the gates of the hurricane center. He is a breath of fresh air to the center, and removing him would be the dumbest thing possible those lame asses down there can do. They would lose all my trust.
1728. Drakoen
yea thundercloud. but look at the convection it can move into. Its still not dead. It now even more dangerous.
1729. Drakoen
.
hopefully it does
1731. Drakoen
Drakoen are you talking about 96L? If so how is it even more dangerous now with dry air beating it up bad, it's convection down in the ITCZ, and an exposed center?
1733. Drakoen
i was talking about it entering the carribbean not its actual strength.
1734. TayTay
I've been saying it from the start that dry air will prevent 96L from really developing. I still think it will fizzle. LLC is exposed again.
1735. Drakoen
Good morning all. Seems like 96L is starting to get a taste of the rum in the Windwards and starting to stagger. Hopefully this will continue as I really dont like the southerly shift of the models which puts it deeper into the warmer waters of the Caribbean. Will be interesting to see if it can survive the day. I am starting to have my doubts.
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Happy 4th of July, Jeff...
I agree with you Tay and Dr. masters (he knew from the start what he was talking about and was right).
As it moves further west toward warmer waters convection should increase.
1740. Srt4Man
Happy 4th All!
But that is if the dust doesn't kill it first.
1742. Drakoen
lol westward is actually better
1743. Drakoen
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:52 AM GMT on July 04, 2007.

As it moves further west toward warmer waters convection should increase.


yea as it moves out of the area of SAL, that currently over the northern side of the system.
1744. Drakoen
you can see the SAL over the northern side of the system but notice theSAL gets weaker as it progress west.
1745. Drakoen
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N42W...OR ABOUT 1200 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AS DECREASED SOME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT.
I agree Drakoen warmer waters isn't the problem 96L needs to overcome/move away from the dry air to it's north then it could strengthen but not until then and I don't believe it will become our TD (just my 2 cents).
God I hope it develops. Hope it keeps winning its battle against the dry air.
I think you did pretty good Storm. The models are starting to shift south into the Caribbean.
You to Storm!!
1752. Drakoen
StormW is going into the carribbean. I don't believe that this system will strength untill it moves within a few hundred miles of the lesser anitilles
1753. Drakoen
its starting to build some heavy convection on the west side as the low moves under the clouds again.
RB Loop
Drak it might become a depression before it reaches 300 miles east of the Antilles but thats about it.

I think the ridge about 50/100 miles ESE of Bermuda will weaken a little to allow it to move WNW into the Bahamas instead of the Caribbean. But that's my 2.

And another thing, what does MJO mean?
1755. Drakoen
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale.

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where convection is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days.

The MJO is also known as the 30-60 day oscillation, 30-60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.

(wikipedia)
1756. Drakoen
what interests me is that it is near after where it is and it is building convection, this time yesterday it was losing convection, because of the dinural phase.
1758. lweetz
Is there anything is the disturbance of the central Florida coast? It looks to have a little circulation.
1759. Drakoen
theres a mid level circulation. Its the 4th of july alot of people won't be on..
is the dry air going to move away from 96L
1761. Drakoen
i don't think the dry air is gonna move away. In fact its moving in on the system. thats why the system doesn't have alot of convection at the present time.
The CMC is calling for 97L/TD 3/TS Chantal to move off the African coast next Monday.
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE.
This "blurb" in the Atlantic has garnered the attention of Oil interests in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Due to extreme deep water drilling (in up to 6000 ft of water), the advanced warning needed to pull out of a drilling well and evacuate can be as much as seven days. Therefore, if the blurb in the Atlantic decides to spin up, and follows the current model tracks, we will probably be looking at some heavy evacuation flying by the middle of next week.

As a note of interest... Last year was the first time in 24 years that we did not have a single evacuation for storms in the Gulf of Mexico. Most observers do NOT expect a repeat this year!
1765. Patrap
I own PHI stock..shes a good company for Louisiana.. Fouchoun Chevron dock.
1766. Patrap
America is Proud to Celebrate Her Independence today..May God keep US safe and Strong thru the coming Year.

Happy 4th of July..!


6
when will 96L move into moist air
Good Day, and Happy Independence to you Americans.
96 L has an arrow pointing at me this morning.?? What does it all mean, I ask myself.?

Some have said ( me included ) that it would end up in the South Carib. Isles.
Well, I gues some guesses are right. !!!!!!!
Still; time for this to develop, fizzle, turn north etc etc.

Have a great one all. I'm out mostly. Some of us have to work man !!!
I'll repeat what I said at this time yesterday.

It already is a a TD. (It meets the meteorlogical definition.) The NHC hesitates to make it official because the prognosis is so bleak. They will hold off declaring it until it is obviously a threat. Is there anyone here who doubts that this would already have advisories on it if it was in the GOM?

1770. Drakoen
that is a possiblility Pensacola drug. They would have been able to do a RECOn flight on it.
1771. nash28
Morning all. Looks like 96L is still fighting. Dry air is really having its way though. If it can keep convection and wrap around, should be TD3 sometime today.
NEW BLOG
Am I right in thinking from looking at sat loop that 96L is gaining forward speed and even though the low level circulation is more exposed it looks stronger, bigger and more pronounced, also looks like its catching up fast with the convection to the SW of the COC.
1774. nash28
Oh, and I would like to say Happy Independence Day to everyone. Do something nice for a vet today. Be proud to be an American! I know I am.
Oh forgot to mention Happy Independence Day to all Americans.Enjoy and be safe in your travels.
A shot from a snowy day in Colorado...

A shot from Colorado..
1778. CJ5
Well, there is no problem seeing the COC on the visible now lol even a defined eye. Its not looking good, though.