WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A late look at Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2009

Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.


Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. wxhatt
Quoting Chicklit:
hello, i see banding.


Your right, some very good outflow developing. This has a good chance at ramping up once in GOM!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well you could blog from your relatives' place in Maine!


Nah, my "safehouse" for storms is in Brandon - east of Tampa by maybe 10 miles or so.
2503. Drakoen
Quoting Chicklit:
hello, i see banding.


Just some upper level outflow around the periphery of the upper ridge axis.
Quoting Drakoen:
50 pages of blogging in one day.
and 90 percent crap
Quoting Drakoen:
That Teen chat is really atrocious. Unbecoming.
Act like a twit. . . .

Quoting zoomiami:
Very hot here today, and no thunderstorms, making it really miserable.

To put into perspective how those storms cool us down, on Wednesday the temps were 91, thunder storm comes through, and for over an hour the temps were 74. Even after the storms are over, it rarely goes back to the highs.

Yeh, that's why I haven't been complaining about the rain. By now the humidity would have be choking and daily highs would have been at 90 every day. The p.m. thunderstorm buildups have kept the worst of the afternoon heating from really pounding us. Dunno if it'll last into July (prolly not) but one can hope. . .
Quoting Levi32:


If that were the case I wouldn't even be on this particular blog. The words of the few Meteorologists in here would never get read amongst the fray. People just shouldn't come in here for official info. That's what the NHC is for.


When things get serious I change my filter level to "show best" and it weeds out most of the bad.
2507. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But is the water warm enough off the west coast of Africa in the main development lane from 11-14 N?

I ate at Annies a few times a week before Katrina knocked her down...Annies niece had taken over the restaurant before Katrina and has since reopened...

Cafe Annie
6340 Kiln Delisle Road
Pass Christian, MS 39571
228-586-6010
Quoting Asta:
Washing away..- love your Avatar image- nice ot see a familiar face online...What's ERIC's prediction on invest 93L?? ; )


It's to horrific to post.
Quoting Drakoen:


If it stays closer to 10-12N then yes. If it is more towards 14N then no.
I saw on local news earlier today that the water at Clearwater Beach is 92 degrees.
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view!

TampaSpins Tropical Update
2513. centex
looks like ULL is filling in from SW to NE giving room for 93L.
BR>If that were the case I wouldn't even be on this particular blog. The words of the few Meteorologists in here would never get read amongst the fray. People just shouldn't come in here for official info. That's what the NHC is for.

Levi,
not true entirely. I scroll read names, yours is one of them among an elite few.

but there is a point when it does get almost pointless. love the videos btw
Click Image for LOOP:
2516. Drakoen
The Upper level low in the BOC is not going to move SW it's going to head west or even WNW. A Western track into the GOM would not be a good idea for the survival of this thing.
2517. wxhatt
Wo
Quoting CaneWarning:
I saw on local news earlier today that the water at Clearwater Beach is 92 degrees.


Wow, High Octane fuel for canes...
I find the filter system quite effective. However, I also find that the bulk of the nonsense posting cuts down after about, say Aug 25. Any guess why?

2519. Kdav56
well the nhc has been right up to now. it hasnt done anything lol tommorow will be it chance to make something happen
There is a small high that seems to be directly above the ealt wave that appears to be moving in tandem to the west.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I find the filter system quite effective. However, I also find that the bulk of the nonsense posting cuts down after about, say Aug 25. Any guess why?



The kids go back to school!
The water seems a bit cool yet to me Drak, hardly anything warm enough above 11 N. Until almost 50W the water seems too cool. The water must have been warmer when the Berthas of 1996 and 2008 formed. I seriously doubt we get an early Cape Verde season with water temps like that. But thanks for the map!
2523. hahaguy
Quoting BahaHurican:
I find the filter system quite effective. However, I also find that the bulk of the nonsense posting cuts down after about, say Aug 25. Any guess why?



The kids go back to school.
2525. Drakoen
Quoting hahaguy:


The kids go back to school.


How does this stop JFV from posting?!?!?!?!


AOI/INV/93L
MARK
23.1N/86.3W
2528. hahaguy
Quoting Drakoen:


How does this stop JFV from posting?!?!?!?!


I got no clue, maybe he is in 1st grade this year.
2529. Drakoen
Tomorrow will be a key day as it will emerge fully into the southern GOM. It's do or die there.
2530. Drakoen
Quoting hahaguy:


I got no clue maybe he is in 1st grade this year.


1st grade and he has a baby? That's not healthy....
2531. wxhatt
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/INV/93L
MARK
23.1N/86.3W


Roger. that signture is looking well defined in the upper atmosphere now. I'll think she'll go once in the gulf...
fwiw: I was fishing about 25 miles off the coast of fort myers beach today, and the water temp. was reading between 92.2 and 93.4 as we trolled for several miles. As we got closer to the beach. appx 2-5 miles out we hit spots were that were warmer, the warmest being 94.8
Looks like the east side won out.
Link
Notice NHC / TAFB does expect the low to be back by tomorrow sometime.



However, I think the 72-hr forecast demonstrates the greater uncertainties with this thing:
2535. hahaguy
He probably has been held back because he doesn't know what 2+2 is.
Quoting Drakoen:


How does this stop JFV from posting?!?!?!?!


Could not stop could you
I am really sorry to see that
2538. hahaguy
Ok I'm done for tonight, night all.
Quoting CaneWarning:
I saw on local news earlier today that the water at Clearwater Beach is 92 degrees.

Insane.
2540. wxhatt
Quoting hahaguy:
Ok I'm done for tonight, night all.


yawn... Gnite
Well there is an assumption here that he is entering 1st grade this year---how many years has he been in first grade?
2542. Kdav56
from the looks now it seems to have more banding but less convection. could be a sign of the llc forming
Looks like there is nothing to talk abou tin the tropics tonight... 93L is still just that and only being enhanced by the upper low. 93L never got it going!

Im down to a 20% chance @ best for this to develop.
Serious question, havent been on here in a while..what happened to our bud jfv?
000
FZNT02 KNHC 280352
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUN 28 2009

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.GULF OF MEXICO 06 HOUR FORECAST WEAK TROUGH FORM S OF 26N
ALONG 84W/86W AND DRIFT N. WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE WIND 20
KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS E OF TROUGH
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH STATIONARY. WITHIN 90 NM E OF TROUGH
WIND 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS E OF TROUGH.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WIND LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.


Quoting Kdav56:
from the looks now it seems to have more banding but less convection. could be a sign of the llc forming

duh!
jfv morphed into weatherstudent.
Quoting JuttyinMS:
Serious question, havent been on here in a while..what happened to our bud jfv?

2
2504,

If Dr Masters was lurking he would see the constant attention WS gets. I sit here lurking, and what ever that guy did is pretty amazing. JFV this, JFV that. The only time I talk about someone like that is when I'm in love with them. That maybe the case here.
What's "2" mean? That was a serious question, but the suggestion that he morphed into weatherstudent makes a lot of sense
He did, JFV left or was banned, not sure, and weatherstudent is his new handle.
2554. Drakoen
Quoting Orcasystems:


Could not stop could you
I am really sorry to see that


LOL! Oh well. Everybody can't be a fan. :(

It amazes me how your focus is on personalities rather than the tropics! That would be the "adult" thing to do.
456 it is truly amazing bud

lol
2556. Drakoen
Needs a miracle:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Of course if a Cat 4 or 5 were bearing down on GA the blog would probably be quiet and have a few skeptical comments because no one would believe it ;)


When Gustav and Ike were in the the Gulf we were averaging 50 comments every 2-3 minutes. sometimes more...
The Gulf of Mexico
Link
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL! Oh well. Everybody can't be a fan. :(

It amazes me how your focus is on personalities rather than the tropics! That would be the "adult" thing to do.
I agre with Orca that it's getting a bit old now.
2561. Drakoen
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agre with Orca that it's getting a bit old now.


It's going to be hard to stop but i'll try.
or divine intervention
It would be interesting to look at the Gustav/Ike blogs and see which one had the most comments--although Dr. Masters was updating several times a day then too.
if drak had any people skills or knowledge of the tropics he would stop talking about JFV and discuss 93L. hopefully this will get us back into the discussion about 93L because this is not social club drak, this is a weatherblog.
2565. Drakoen
JFV really entertains me.
We're still two hours short of 24, and up to almost 2600 posts. And this for a wannabe depression. MUST be June. . . lol

That low off the NC/SC border looks healthier right now. . . .
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agre with Orca that it's getting a bit old now.


Its well past old :(
I had all of his reincarnations on ignore, so I never see any of his comments.... its only when others whom I did not have on ignore decide to play teen chat it gets out of hand.. the easy way to fix that.. is have them join him.

Which is to bad.. I actually respect some of those people when they are not playing bait the troll.

Quoting Drakoen:
JFV really entertains me.

You ask yourself...can someone really be that stupid? LOL...not, really. It's comic relief.
Low level winds and 650 streamlines show an African wave along the coast of Africa very well. For the 2nd time on the 12Z runs, the 4 relaible models again hint development. While the wave lost much of convection this evening, it remains define, the axis. The models quickly develops it but reduces it's strength in the mid-Atlantic. Conditions appear marginally to somehwat favorable for development, if any. I'll just continue to monitor the feature.
2572. Drakoen
Quoting Chicklit:

You ask yourself...can someone really be that stupid? LOL...no, really. It's comic relief.


Gotta agree.
2573. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane2009:


I agree it gets old, but he brings it on himself many timees too. I mean if he wouldnt post so much than nobody would say much to him, but he always gives this blog a post to respond too.


JFV is smart in what he does to grab people's attention. It really is amazing. I don't even think he realizes it.
2574. centex
Quoting Chicklit:

You ask yourself...can someone really be that stupid? LOL...not, really. It's comic relief.
Don't bait Drak, he is acting like a troll tonight.
Just put a 'kick me' sign on my back and blast away...cripes. I wudda been a great psychologist...
2576. hahaguy
.
Quoting centex:
Don't bait Drak, he is acting like a troll tonight.

3
Orca, just curious - what do the numbers you keep posting mean?
Quoting Orcasystems:

3


LMAO.....good one!
2581. Drakoen
Quoting CaneWarning:
Orca, just curious - what do the numbers you keep posting mean?


You really can't figure that out?
Really orca, answer the question
Quoting Orcasystems:

3


Smartest thing i read on this blog thread all day
CV's have got me a little antsy this year- it has been 5 years since the last East Coast landfalling CV hurricane (2004, Frances and Jeanne). That is the longest period between landfalling Atlantic Coast Cape Verde hurricanes in over 30 years- I've gone back to 1979 and the only other long period was 3 years. So statistically, we are overdue.
Quoting Drakoen:


You really can't figure that out?


I just want confirmation that it means what I think it means.
What's also amazing is to go back to, say Katrina or Wilma and discover that the Doc was updating 2, 3 times a day, for, what, 600 comments MAX???? I'm not sure the blog wouldn't crash under the weight of posts if we had a similar scenario now. It's amazing how popular this blog has grown in the last 3-4 years. Even the off-season posting is heavier than that first season.
2588. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


JFV is smart in what he does to grab people's attention. It really is amazing. I don't even think he realizes it.


Yes he does, hence the comment yesterday on feeding the stray an aquiring a new pet. You all played into the hand that was desired. Think about it, is it knowledge or responses that were desired.



hey Tampa is your website up? I cant get it to work tonight :(
2590. Drakoen
Quoting winter123:


Smartest thing i read on this blog thread all day


Yep.
Quoting Ossqss:


Yes he does, hence the comment yesterday on feeding the stray an aquiring a new pet. You all played into the hand that was desired. Think about it, is it knowledge or responses that were desired.





thanks alot bud!......LOL
Orca, what do the numbers mean?
2593. Drakoen
That's really clever Orca.
Quoting PcolaJess:
hey Tampa is your website up? I cant get it to work tonight :(


Yep 6 people online now! Have no problems.
This does not look good.



That ULL is really holding this invest back. As long as that keeps swiping off the western side of things, there will be problems.

Note: the line of the Twave is showing up as Tstorms as it moves across Mex and Guatemala/Belize.
lol thanks got it working now
2598. centex
come on guys the whole point is to stop this nonsense. Unfortunately we need to remind you guys too many times.
Quoting Weather456:
Orca, what do the numbers mean?


WUmail
Wow 93L look the worst it ever has right now
-------
Well, you would, too, if you ran smackdab into the peninsula with no makeup on.

Which model/graf do you base this on?
Quoting Orcasystems:

3
Ditto.
2602. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


thanks alot bud!......LOL


LoL.,, I have not even been able to see what is up with our item. Long evening doin the DJ wedding thing for the neighbors. Wheew, anything to board up over?
Quoting BahaHurican:
This does not look good.



That ULL is really holding this invest back. As long as that keeps swiping off the western side of things, there will be problems.

Note: the line of the Twave is showing up as Tstorms as it moves across Mex and Guatemala/Belize.
like i said a few posts back this may even lose its yellow circle at 2
2604. Drakoen
Quoting centex:
come on guys the whole point is to stop this nonsense. Unfortunately we need to remind you guys too many times.


43
do all storms go through eye or center relocation periods to insure health of storm?
rather hostile environment... but i'll check back tomorrow once it clears into the GOM.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
2608. Ron5244
I hope Florida get's hit this year, I miss the thrill.
2609. Ossqss
Uh, where did it go?

Link

2610. Drakoen
Quoting Ron5244:
I hope Florida get's hit this year, I miss the thrill.


44
Quoting Ron5244:
I hope Florida get's hit this year, I miss the thrill.


Ahh what the h*ll I'm on a roll
4
Oh, my July outlook was schedule for 2mr and I can still post it but becuz of 93L, at a later date.

But SSTs and Dust was above/below of June
Wind shear was above normal for areas south of 20N and below normal north thereof due the southern extent of the Subtropical jet.

Looking over the next 2 weeks, the subtropical jet weakens. Not much expected though for the 1st 2 weeks. However, below normal pressures and increase rainfall across the Gulf/WCarib and Eastern Tropical Atlantic. The CFS shows a negative NAO pattern for the month, the seering pattern of 08. Porbably the latter 2 weeks will see a storm.
Quoting Drakoen:


44


Yeah, that was confirmation enough.
Quoting pcbdragon:
do all storms go through eye or center relocation periods to insure health of storm?

I think it is normal and expected for storms to switch centers of circulation during cyclogenesis.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
like i said a few posts back this may even lose its yellow circle at 2
I'll hold out until then before I head to bed. However, I don't think they'll bring it down just yet. I think they want to see what happens w/ it once it gets out over open waters again before they make any more adjustments.

I'm not in the RIP camp, (more wait and see) but if it still looks this bad tomorrow at 8 a.m. I wouldn't be surprised at a downgrade.

But we shall see.
Quoting Ossqss:
Uh, where did it go?

Link


to me looks like the center shifted to the NE
2619. Ossqss
Quoting Ron5244:
I hope Florida get's hit this year, I miss the thrill.


Do you wish mayhem on your family or friends or others that you don't know? Perhaps, not having power for a few weeks is a good thing ?
2620. centex
Quoting Drakoen:


44
0, sorry serious bloggers.
Ahhh my old calcified brain had an unexpected live synapse crackle and snap and I figured it out--thanks Canewarning :)
Quoting hurricane2009:
This thing is getting squashed, I think its on its last legs now

even if the ULL does move away, that southerly flow is moving down fast and squashing it from the north lol
yep gettin worked over on north and west sides no where to go
2623. Ron5244
Oh no, not the ignore list!

Come on people, at least I can admit my passion for the beauty of these storms. Have you not noticed all the wishcasting on here? Why do you think they do that? They LOVE to witness the phenomona of these systems. And you know what? So do you.
I don't think it is the upper low influencing the lack of convective activity

2626. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Oh, my July outlook was schedule for 2mr and I can still post it but becuz of 93L, at a later date.

But SSTs and Dust was above/below of June
Wind shear was above normal for areas south of 20N and below normal north thereof due the southern extent of the Subtropical jet.

Looking over the next 2 weeks, the subtropical jet weakens. Not much expected though for the 1st 2 weeks. However, below normal pressures and increase rainfall across the Gulf/WCarib and Eastern Tropical Atlantic. The CFS shows a negative NAO pattern for the month, the seering pattern of 08. Porbably the latter 2 weeks will see a storm.

that was a fast outlook
2627. centex
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep gettin worked over on north and west sides no where to go
maybe NW is the slot.
2628. Ron5244
Quoting centex:
0, sorry serious bloggers.


Haha. Love it.
Quoting Weather456:
Oh, my July outlook was schedule for 2mr and I can still post it but becuz of 93L, at a later date.

But SSTs and Dust was above/below of June
Wind shear was above normal for areas south of 20N and below normal north thereof due the southern extent of the Subtropical jet.

Looking over the next 2 weeks, the subtropical jet weakens. Not much expected though for the 1st 2 weeks. However, below normal pressures and increase rainfall across the Gulf/WCarib and Eastern Tropical Atlantic. The CFS shows a negative NAO pattern for the month, the seering pattern of 08. Porbably the latter 2 weeks will see a storm.


I can't wait to read it. So for early July your not anticipating much, Weather?
456, was just looking at the high setup. More of the highs set way down against the tropic of cancer.
2632. Ron5244
Quoting hurricane2009:


Speak for yourself, and there wasnt too much wishcasting today, only a few really obvious ones. With the flooding that some areas of Florida are still under, even a TS could be a bad thing.


I've been on here for years. I was for sure not speaking of JUST today. We're talking from 2004-Present - wishcasting, wishcasting, wishcasting! You love these storms too, why else would you be on here at the end of June? Not to make sure a hurricane isn't coming, thats for sure. If that's the reason, I suggest coming back Mid-August, cause this is no 2005.
Maybe so ron, until Katrina came, where you from?
Quoting Ron5244:


I've been on here for years. I was for sure not speaking of JUST today. We're talking from 2004-Present - wishcasting, wishcasting, wishcasting! You love these storms too, why else would you be on here at the end of June? Not to make sure a hurricane isn't coming, thats for sure. If that's the reason, I suggest coming back Mid-August, cause this is no 2005.


Some of us are here year round.
2636. Ron5244
2619. Ossqss 4:41 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Ron5244:
I hope Florida get's hit this year, I miss the thrill.


Do you wish mayhem on your family or friends or others that you don't know? Perhaps, not having power for a few weeks is a good thing ?


Who the heck are you? Did I say I wanted to be hit with another hurricane Andrew? How do you know I didn't mean a TS? I just like to see a period of strong wind and rain. I don't need complete destruction.
2637. Drakoen
I'm out for the night. It's been fun.
Patrap is the best poster with the exception of the doc. And the doc should hope he doesn't open his own blog.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I can't wait to read it. So for early July your not anticipating much, Weather?


Yea, but I don't know how the 2 intraseasonal factors may offset each other, the MJO and SAL. The former is expected to be in a downward phase while the latter, like June, is expected to be below normal.

It was interesting, that when I went back in the SAL archives, I saw about 2 dust events, maybe three dust events for June.
Quoting Ron5244:
2619. Ossqss 4:41 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Ron5244:
I hope Florida get's hit this year, I miss the thrill.


Do you wish mayhem on your family or friends or others that you don't know? Perhaps, not having power for a few weeks is a good thing ?


Who the heck are you? Did I say I wanted to be hit with another hurricane Andrew? How do you know I didn't mean a TS? I just like to see a period of strong wind and rain. I don't need complete destruction.

doesn't have to be a cat 5 to cause that ammount of damage even a tropical storm ranks in the top ten of costliest storms.
2642. Ron5244
LOL Ron you are so funny

I am here cuz I love tracking these storms, not because I want one to hit somewhere

Two totally different things


Oh yeah, my bad. It must be all the fancy coordinates, and colorful infared images that keep you coming back. If that was my passion, I'd feel even more lame. Way to go. I mean, its not like this is your job, poor METs probably would love it for you to take their place though.
2643. Ron5244
What is absolutely hilarious is how much of a hypocrite you are

You are whining and whining about all the wishcasting, yet your first post was WISHING a storm hit Florida

Kind of funny when you think of it, makes me realize you arent worth the time anymore


When did I say I didn't wishcast? I'm just saying I'm one of the majority. Good try though.
2644. Ron5244
2635. CaneWarning 4:48 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Ron5244:


I've been on here for years. I was for sure not speaking of JUST today. We're talking from 2004-Present - wishcasting, wishcasting, wishcasting! You love these storms too, why else would you be on here at the end of June? Not to make sure a hurricane isn't coming, thats for sure. If that's the reason, I suggest coming back Mid-August, cause this is no 2005.

Some of us are here year round.


Well...that 'us' population could use lives.
Quoting Ron5244:
2635. CaneWarning 4:48 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Ron5244:


I've been on here for years. I was for sure not speaking of JUST today. We're talking from 2004-Present - wishcasting, wishcasting, wishcasting! You love these storms too, why else would you be on here at the end of June? Not to make sure a hurricane isn't coming, thats for sure. If that's the reason, I suggest coming back Mid-August, cause this is no 2005.

Some of us are here year round.


Well...that 'us' population could use lives.


1
69


...... minutes to the 2:05 a.m. TWO
Quoting Ron5244:
Oh no, not the ignore list!

Come on people, at least I can admit my passion for the beauty of these storms. Have you not noticed all the wishcasting on here? Why do you think they do that? They LOVE to witness the phenomona of these systems. And you know what? So do you.


Loving the natural beauty of a tc or tornado has nothing to do with wishing a hit on yourself or on anyone else. (Mod. Removed a word deemed offensive by "Ron5244")
I'm gonna play these numbers in the next Cash 5 lotto drawing...
2649. Ron5244
doesn't have to be a cat 5 to cause that ammount of damage even a tropical storm ranks in the top ten of costliest storms.

TS being one of the top ten? We're talkin' one in every century. Even so, the only reason that would happen is due to flooding, and that's not something I included in my wishcast!
Quoting BahaHurican:
69


...... minutes to the 2:05 a.m. TWO


I don't know if I'll be up for that or not!
first the spanish speakers, then the drama about CCHS and JFV, then I was called a spy and now and issue about wishcasting.

I am going to bed. My dreams will be nicer than this blog. Tomorrow, we will all be sober AND know more about 93L. It is also Sunday, so I hope we are all nicer then too :-)

G'night everyone.
Quoting BahaHurican:
69


...... minutes to the 2:05 a.m. TWO
69 min till i catch some zzzz
2653. Ron5244
2647. Barefootontherocks 4:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Ron5244:
Oh no, not the ignore list!

Come on people, at least I can admit my passion for the beauty of these storms. Have you not noticed all the wishcasting on here? Why do you think they do that? They LOVE to witness the phenomona of these systems. And you know what? So do you.


Loving the natural beauty of a tc or tornado has nothing to do with wishing a hit on yourself or on anyone else. Capiche?


Capiche? Who do you think you are, the freakin Godfather? I'm Italian, and that honestly makes me sick. ...Capiche?
some people are not christian or non religious so there may be still some issues today :P not that im hating on those who aren't.
2655. Ossqss
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I can't wait to read it. So for early July your not anticipating much, Weather?


If I am not mistaken, you have lied to this blog multiple times with significant items of concern, that were false. Including being permanently banned under 2 different Handles , JFV and PE and now WS is in the mix.

How do you still survive under the supervision of the Admin. How does that happen Admin???????

That is wrong, and you continue to post, but less the threatening emails this time. It is Just wrong !

Just my take as I exit.
Ron no one in here doesn't love the power of mother nature ie. tropical weather, but remember it all comes with a price. So a lot of people are scared especially if they have been through one of this storms only a disturb person would want one of this storms to hit. I believe after all what we are talking about is a large tornado and no one can say before hand whether its a F1 or F5 until its upon them.
2658. centex
I'm expecting the convection to build tomorrow around lowest pressure just NE of progeso. It was not a short crossing. Don't ask me what it will do after that, I have no idea.
O.K. lets all meet at the flagpole after class and work all this out. Geeze people, get a life!


looks like they have dropped it
Quoting RainyEyes:
first the spanish speakers, then the drama about CCHS and JFV, then I was called a spy and now and issue about wishcasting.

I am going to bed. My dreams will be nicer than this blog. Tomorrow, we will all be sober AND know more about 93L. It is also Sunday, so I hope we are all nicer then too :-)

G'night everyone.


Alot of buttheads in here tonite....Sorry for your ordeal tonite....its a bunch of crap!
I still think the beast from the east (future 94L) will turn into something before 93L does.

2669. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


Alot of buttheads in here tonite....Sorry for your ordeal tonite....its a bunch of crap!


Am I wrong with respect to the rules ? They are what they are.

Am I a butthead for wanting to ensure we have level ground for all ?
AOI
NEAR
26N/77W

Last updated graphics for the night.


Invest 93L

Invest 93L
sorry wrong link was trying to put up car sat
Quoting JuttyinMS:
I don't know about the rules, but don't mess with ron..he's a tough sob


.
2676. Makoto1
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WHILE NO
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Out way before I expected.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI
NEAR
26N/77W



That AOI looks kinda like a ghost.



Quoting Makoto1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WHILE NO
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Out way before I expected.


Still code yellow - as expected. Goodnight everyone.
UPDATE 113 AM SUN JUN 28



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WHILE NO
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

2681. Makoto1
Night to everyone from me too... I'm beyond tired as well.
Quoting Ossqss:


Am I wrong with respect to the rules ? They are what they are.

Am I a butthead for wanting to ensure we have level ground for all ?


That post was not intended toward you for sure. HOPE YOU KNOW THAT! Your far from the described! LOL.
later all time for some zzzz iam out
2684. centex
Quoting CaneWarning:


Still code yellow - as expected. Goodnight everyone.
I thought they had already lowered prob.
2685. Ron5244
2673. JuttyinMS 5:21 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
I don't know about the rules, but don't mess with ron..he's a tough sob


If logic and reason makes someone an SOB, I guess so. But what does that make half the rest of the degenerates on here?
IM out also......time to count some sheep ! Goodnite everyone! NO FIGHTING KIDS!
2688. centex
6am - RIP
10am - Showing signs
2pm - Blog lights up
6pm - Predictions and crazyness

G'nite.
"Toodles?" what are u 5? how's this? f#*k you moron
2692. centex
Thw ULL is moving rapidly west. On WV notice how the moisture ring is closing off fast on east side. I think this means continued NW and this strange wave will emerge just NE of Progeso. It's really getting alot of presure from NE not to turn NE at this point. None of the experts discuss why this system grows during the day and 3 days in a row ejects convection to it's north.
2693. Dar9895
Quoting Orcasystems:
I still think the beast from the east (future 94L) will turn into something before 93L does.


I think is what some few models develop here.


AOI
ATLANTIC
31N/75W
2695. Ossqss
Quoting Babsjohnson:
O.K. lets all meet at the flagpole after class and work all this out. Geeze people, get a life!


Now days, who would show up? Too many keyboards and mouses in the way :(

Look at your lifestyle folks!--- is it good for you?

If not, make it better!

How come nobody is here at the flag pole?

L8R --
Jutty ,I might be going out with you but remember he is Italian.I dont want to excite anyone.
ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
FOR THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...THE
MAIN WEATHER-MAKER THIS MORNING IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS IS SPONSORING A WEAK COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
CURRENTLY MOVING S OF 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WINDS ARE
INCREASING OFF N FLORIDA AN N OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS
ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE
FRONT STALLS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
MON INTO TUE AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND 25N.
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OFF THE ATLC
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING TUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
Ossgss It was the bicycle racks. Love Peace and something else ,chill out.
2699. 7544
nice blob off the east coast is that thing moving south ?
2653. Ron5244,
Removed from my post the word you found offensive.

Have a real nice night.
:)
2701. Dar9895
Looks like something is coming off the coast of Africa
2702. Seastep
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
FOR THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...THE
MAIN WEATHER-MAKER THIS MORNING IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS IS SPONSORING A WEAK COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED
CURRENTLY MOVING S OF 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WINDS ARE
INCREASING OFF N FLORIDA AN N OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS
ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE
FRONT STALLS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE
MON INTO TUE AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND 25N.
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OFF THE ATLC
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING TUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.


uh oh. ;)

Goodnight all. Morning will tell.
the ull is moving wnw and is starting to let 93L breath a little Take s look at yourself Link
Quoting JuttyinMS:
"Toodles?" what are u 5? how's this? f#*k you moron

ok no way does this dude rep the few posters from Ms
is there anyone who is half alive at this time of night to give me a quick update on 93L?
2706. Seastep
I was going straight to the pillow, but KOTG had to make me look. Shear and fishy, fishy. Still neat.

Bedtime, really now.

Check out this buoy.



Link
Quoting Seastep:
I was going straight to the pillow, but KOTG had make me look. Shear and fishy, fishy. Still neat.

Bedtime, really now.

Check out this buoy.



ty
2708. Seastep
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
is there anyone who is half alive at this time of night to give me a quick update on 93L?


Keep an eye on 93L. Was referring to something else. It will be a much clearer picture tomorrow/today.
What the h%ll has been going in here today. the lunatics have taken over the asylum???

Are we adults or little kids?


Scuba Club Cozumel Webcam
Link
2711. scla08
Wow. There's barely ANY wind shear in the path of what is 93L right now! Link
wow 93L is making that comeback as expected and the convection is very close to where the center is
I'm starting to think that 93L, whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone, will impact areas of the western or central Gulf Coast, as opposed to central or south Florida as we all thought yesterday. Models were forecasting a much deeper and vertically aligned vortex that would feel the weakness in the ridge induced by the forecast upper-level trough.

Unexpectedly, the atmosphere defied all computer model forecasts of decreasing vertical shear, and 93L came under the influence of strong southwesterly shear induced by an upper low currently spinning in the central Bay of Campeche.

I'm thinking that if the upper low retrogrades westward or west-northwestward, which is a distinct possibility, that the southwest flow around the southeastern periphery of said upper low will induce a more northeasterly track toward the central Gulf Coast, but not before 93L, due to its shallow nature, feels the effects of the low-level flow and moves more westward than the models were indicating yesterday.

Just my two cents, and until we get a definite surface center (of which there is currently none, and while it is over the Yucatan, it will probably not develop a low-level circulation), I wouldn't put too much stock in any track forecast. Models generally seem to have a much better handle on a system after it has undergone tropical cyclogenesis and developed a distinct circulation.
2714. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
wow 93L is making that comeback as expected and the convection is very close to where the center is


???????????????????????????


This?


Quoting btwntx08:
wow 93L is making that comeback as expected and the convection is very close to where the center is


I don't think that the area of vorticity you see on infrared satellite imagery is a low-level circulation; it is primarily mid-level, but the circulation is likely closed off at 500 to 700 mb. It will take some time, I'd say at least 6-12 more hours, before 93L begins to develop a closed circulation at 850 mb and beyond.
2716. Fshhead
Quoting IKE:



?????????????????????????????????

This?




HAHAHAHAHAHA!!
Evening Everyone..
2717. Fshhead
I was laughing sooo hard this afternoon when people here were predicting a point of landfall! Man it has not even developed a true center yet.. ;o
2718. IKE
Quoting Fshhead:
I was laughing sooo hard this afternoon when people here were predicting a point of landfall! Man it has not even developed a true center yet.. ;o


There's almost nothing left of it. I'm half expecting the NHC to RIP it on the next TWO.
2719. Fshhead
Going to be interesting to see what we have when the low pressure DOES pop into the Gulf though...
well convection can't form on the yucatan at 3-4 in the am it only happens in the afternoon heating there....so that convection that is forming is from 93L which is starting so you have to wait a couple hrs and lets see what happens
2721. Fshhead
The blob off the Carolinas looks waaaay more impressive than 93L right now
Quoting IKE:


There's almost nothing left of it. I'm half expecting the NHC to RIP it on the next TWO.


I'll agree that the satellite presentation is remarkably poor, but convection is not all there is to tropical waves.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm starting to think that 93L, whether or not it develops into a tropical cyclone, will impact areas of the western or central Gulf Coast, as opposed to central or south Florida as we all thought yesterday. Models were forecasting a much deeper and vertically aligned vortex that would feel the weakness in the ridge induced by the forecast upper-level trough.

Unexpectedly, the atmosphere defied all computer model forecasts of decreasing vertical shear, and 93L came under the influence of strong southwesterly shear induced by an upper low currently spinning in the central Bay of Campeche.

I'm thinking that if the upper low retrogrades westward or west-northwestward, which is a distinct possibility, that the southwest flow around the southeastern periphery of said upper low will induce a more northeasterly track toward the central Gulf Coast, but not before 93L, due to its shallow nature, feels the effects of the low-level flow and moves more westward than the models were indicating yesterday.

Just my two cents, and until we get a definite surface center (of which there is currently none, and while it is over the Yucatan, it will probably not develop a low-level circulation), I wouldn't put too much stock in any track forecast. Models generally seem to have a much better handle on a system after it has undergone tropical cyclogenesis and developed a distinct circulation.


It honestly doesn't even matter where it goes anymore. If it doesn't develop in the next 24-48 hours, conditions will not be favorable enough for significant development if it's in the western/central GOM. The only chance of development is in the eastern/southeastern GOM in my opinion.

I'd say at this point LA and Texas don't have anything to worry about unless conditions were to change.
Quoting Fshhead:
Going to be interesting to see what we have when the low pressure DOES pop into the Gulf though...
It's like bath-water in the GOM... plenty of energy
Quoting Fshhead:
The blob off the Carolinas looks waaaay more impressive than 93L right now


I'll reiterate my statement I just made to Ike: convection isn't everything.
Quoting Fshhead:
The blob off the Carolinas looks waaaay more impressive than 93L right now


Looking at shear maps, there's over 70 knts of wind shear over that blob.
Quoting weatherblog:


It honestly doesn't even matter where it goes anymore. If it doesn't develop in the next 24-48 hours, conditions will not be favorable enough for significant development if it's in the western/central GOM. The only chance of development is in the eastern/southeastern GOM in my opinion.

I'd say at this point LA and Texas don't have anything to worry about unless conditions were to change.


Yeah, I didn't say that upper-level shear would be optimal. However, depending upon the orientation of the aforementioned upper low in relation to 93L's center, it could enhance upper-level outflow, like how it did yesterday evening, when an outflow channel was appearing to the north.

At any rate, if this system does develop, anything stronger than 45 mph is highly unlikely.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, I didn't say that upper-level shear would be optimal. However, depending upon the orientation of the aforementioned upper low in relation to 93L's center, it could enhance upper-level outflow, like how it did yesterday evening, when an outflow channel was appearing to the north.

At any rate, if this system does develop, anything stronger than 45 mph is highly unlikely.


I agree, but if it doesn't get going in the next 48 hours or so the chances of development are going to decrease drastically.
Quoting weatherblog:


I agree, but if it doesn't get going in the next 48 hours or so the chances of development are going to decrease drastically.


I would be kind of concerned if this thing does not upwell the deep oceanic heat content that is present across the eastern and western Gulf of Mexico. If we don't have any upwelling in these areas of the Gulf come August, we could be looking at the potential for something extremely nasty down the road.
go to carribean/west atlantic goes east and your see
Link
2731. Fshhead
Quoting KoritheMan:


I would be kind of concerned if this thing does not upwell the deep oceanic heat content that is present across the eastern and western Gulf of Mexico. If we don't have any upwelling in these areas of the Gulf come August, we could be looking at the potential for something extremely nasty down the road.


AGREED!! Time to stir the tub water..lol
Morning all.

Current view of 93L:



Interesting thing about this WV is the ULL doesn't seem as strong / set in its place. We may be seeing it move out.

2735. islagal
If anyone is out there...any thoughts on the rain potential this morning and early afternoon for Cancun area? Are the clouds popping up on radar rainmakers and headed this direction? We were up to our knees last night. Gracias.

Morning, woke up to check 93L and found this...What the?
AL, 93, 2009062800, , BEST, 0, 200N, 874W, 25, 1008, DB,

Looks like its right under the small blob of convection.

ULL moving out, plenty of 850 mb vorticity...I still see no reason to give it no chance in the GOM.
2738. VVxGirl
Check out my videos on You Tube called "Avon F2 Tornado" and "Avon Tornado" submitted by tylander4 (thats me). Some awesome extreme weather caught live by surprise!
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W TO 14N90W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
2N90W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
NEAR THE WAVE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA. THIS CONVECTION IS
ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES
INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

They're still giving it a chance.
Morning all.

Chic, that was my response too. Still no sign of rotation that might suggest formation of a centre.

Meanwhile, look at the S end of this Twave that is in the EPac. . . .
okay, i'm going back to bed.
Link
Hurricane Hunters going to take a look at 93L today,
The eyes have collapsed! My eyes, this 93L has passed its opportunity, missed the bus. On to the next blob; looks like NO STORM IN JUNE 2009!
What is diving off the SE Coast of US? Part of the Trough Split? The CIMSS Maps are down of course! Looks interesting! Thoughts?
Quoting JuttyinMS:
"Toodles?" what are u 5? how's this? f#*k you moron


***POOF***
I could not find any pressure falls off the SE Coast convection, it looks near the Gulf Stream though, so maybe that is the build up?
Just checked NW Atlantic sat part of the the front SE Convection but it appears to be breaking off the front, next Invest maybe?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
244 am EDT sun Jun 28 2009


Discussion...
stationary middle level trough off of the U.S. East Coast today will
broaden and retrograde west Monday and Tuesday as a strong upper low develops
over the Great Lakes region
. Also...a ridge of high pressure ...
-tending southeast from a 500 mb high pressure system centered over the S rockies
and over S fla today...also retrogrades Monday and Tuesday as the
upper trough to the east moves west.


For the short term...today through Tuesday...wind circulating about
the surface ridge of high pressure nosing west over the S Bahamas and into
the fla straits between the Mainland and Cuba...nudges the tropical
wave in the northwest Caribbean northwest into the southern Gulf of mex
. With a
prevailing deep SW flow over the area today...a gradual increase of
tropical moisture can be expected but subsidence aloft from the 500 mb
ridge will curtail convection some over S fla today. With the
westerly flow...afternoon activity will be more in the interior and east
with the West Coast mainly this morning. The East Coast sea breeze...if
any...will be close to the coast. Tonight...after the evening con
-vection fades away...the West Coast can expect nocturnal activity.
Though development of the tropical wave seems limited at this time
..moisture from the system gets caught up in the westerly flow
leading to better odds of seeing diurnal/nocturnal convection in the
similar pattern of the past few days Monday and again Tuesday. Maximum
/min temperatures remain seasonal through the period.

2750. IKE
From the Tallahassee morning discussion....

"LOOKING TO THE TROPICS...THE WAVE STANDS LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING
WHILE OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE S CENTRAL OR SW GULF...
THAT MAY CHANGE. HOWEVER..THE DELAY AND MORE WWD POSITION MEANS THAT
IT WILL NOT BE PICKED UP THE THE ERN U.S. TROUGH LIKE PRIOR RUNS OF
THE GFS (AND SOME OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE) HAD BEEN ADVERTISING. BOTTOM
LINE...THE THREAT TO FL IS NEGLIGIBLE."
2751. IKE
From the NO,LA morning discussion...

"SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
AXIS ROTATING ON BACKSIDE WILL HELP DRIVE THE FRONT DOWN
SIDE...PUSH THE MAIN UPPER HIGH WEST AND CREATE A MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY. WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY....FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT RETREAT NORTH OR PUSH
COMPLETELY INTO THE GULF. WITH THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
GULF...EXPECTING SOME MOVEMENT TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE WELL OFFSHORE AND CONVECTION MAY BE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELUCTANT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. A NORTHWEST MOIST FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...A STEP CLOSER TO NORMS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND."
Still no evidence of a surface low.

2753. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
2754. IKE
2755. IKE
NAM 6Z at 84 hours....

Good Morning Ike,

Have been following your discussions here and believe you nailed 93L from the git go. I learn a lot from your comments and examples. Thanks for all your input.
2757. IKE
Quoting fishinfool33825:
Good Morning Ike,

Have been following your discussions here and believe you nailed 93L from the git go. I learn a lot from your comments and examples. Thanks for all your input.


I'm no pro, but thanks for the kind words.

Hope you have a nice Sunday.
Well I guess the lunacy and our invest (looks sickly this morning) have left the blog. Shoot I was just hoping for some rain here in Texas out of this thing. Looks like the ULL took even that away from us!
2760. pottery
HUH!
Looking at the Trop. Atl. this morning and thinking " What, is the Dry season still here? Or What?" @ 11n 61w.
What have they done, to the clouds??
All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.

A few of the more level-headed bloggers, like Ike, Weather456, and Levi just to name a few, post thier opinions, back them up with facts to support said opinions. Not leaving anyone out, just that's all that comes to mind on a blurry morning.

The rest are left to squeal their tires in the parking lot, angry and full of addrenaline, no race, no storm.

Too bad Jeff Masters can't install a hormone or alcohol indicator on these blogs.
2762. IKE
NOGAPS has a strong 850 mb vort moving NNW from the Yucatan.

Quoting Rmadillo:
All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.

A few of the more level-headed bloggers, like Ike, Weather456, and Levi just to name a few, post thier opinions, back them up with facts to support said opinions. Not leaving anyone out, just that's all that comes to mind on a blurry morning.

The rest are left to squeal their tires in the parking lot, angry and full of addrenaline, no race, no storm.

Too bad Jeff Masters can't install a hormone or alcohol indicator on these blogs.
Yea and if you chime in with level headness you get shredded
Ike,
Thoughts on convection off SE Coast?
2765. IKE
2761. Rmadillo said....

All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.



Exactly. And it will happen again on here today. And throughout the rest of the season.

If I said it looks on life-support, somebody will tell me I'm jumping the gun....it's too soon to say that....

Hello....this is a cloud mass...not a human that couldn't recover from some medical problem.

To be honest, it looks pretty bad this morning.
Early mornings or late nights are a good time to get good info on here otherwise you have to sift through too much 'casting and who is right and who is wrong. I have gotten to where I don't even post during those times
Polarcane, I wasn't very levelheaded last night LOL, but knew enough not to post and flame up the B$.

Don't they make breath indicators for cars? They should have one here, with a bottle next to your icon, to show how full you are.

Morning everyone!
Quoting IKE:
2761. Rmadillo said....

All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.



Exactly. And it will happen again on here today. And throughout the rest of the season.

If I said it looks on life-support, somebody will tell me I'm jumping the gun....it's too soon to say that....

Hello....this is a cloud mass...not a human that couldn't recover from some medical problem.

To be honest, it looks pretty bad this morning.


Ike you said that last night? lol I could not even find it in the blog with all those comments done last night it was like looking for a needle in a haystack! lol.
2770. IKE
2766...true.

2767...LOL.
2771. centex
ULL finally moving into mexico. I think the timing of events was forecasted too fast for this system.
2772. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Thoughts on convection off SE Coast?


From the latest discussion....

"Atlantic Ocean...
atmospheric instability associated with an upper level trough
digging southward into the SW north Atlc is supporting numerous
showers and thunderstorms N of 28n between 70w-79w...with
scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 27n between 62w-70w."
2773. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike you said that last night? lol I could not even find it in the blog with all those comments done last night it was like looking for a needle in a haystack! lol.


I think it was during the afternoon yesterday I said that.

We need rain here in the Florida panhandle so I can mow my yard/dirt.
With a more westerly trck, and that ULL adding more shear, I figured it was doomed for at least the next 24-48, just like my bottle of Patron.

Even this man knows to stay out of the fight sometimes.

93L is looking very poor this morning! But, this loop speaks volumes as you can see the ULL is booking out to the West leaving better conditions today for 93L to start a slow organization process. Sorry i actually thought it would have happened by now cause i thought the ULL was moving out faster. It did not! We will see if 93L likes its new environmental conditions! Here is a good Loop!
Well to be honest with you Ike you are one of the ones I look to for insight on here. I read this blog really well during Ike last year for insight until I had to get the hell out. Ike was a surreal experience for my family. I have alway been fascinated by storms of all kinds and enjoyed watching them but I do not wish them on anyone. People DO NOT want them coming to their town, I can assure you.
2777. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:
93L is looking very poor this morning! But, this loop speaks volumes as you can see the ULL is booking out to the West leaving better conditions today for 93L to start i slow organization process. Sorry i actually thought it would have happened by now cause i thought the ULL was moving out faster. It did not! We will see if 93L likes its new invironmental conditions! Here is a good Loop!


This heat wave we've had was forecast to break....and break...and break.

It's slowly backed off but not near as fast as these models indicated.

Models jump the gun more often in the summer when the jet stream is further north and things move slower.
2778. IKE
Quoting polarcane:
Well to be honest with you Ike you are one of the ones I look to for insight on here. I read this blog really well during Ike last year for insight until I had to get the hell out. Ike was a surreal experience for my family. I have alway been fascinated by storms of all kinds and enjoyed watching them but I do not wish them on anyone. People DO NOT want them coming to their town, I can assure you.


IKE was a beast. I'll never forget that one.
Here is a tropical update i posted late last night if anyone would like to view!

TampaSpin Tropical Update
Quoting IKE:


IKE was a beast. I'll never forget that one.
Yea there are still blue tarps here to attest to that!
Quoting IKE:


This heat wave we've had was forecast to break....and break...and break.

It's slowly backed off but not near as fast as these models indicated.

Models jump the gun more often in the summer when the jet stream is further north and things move slower.


I have posted for the last 3 days that i just don't see the high breaking down that was the reason i thought the ULL would be out of here by now....Also keep saying from Louisiana to Mexico as likely spots. Florida i just could not see!
2782. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


I have posted for the last 3 days that i just don't see the high breaking down that was the reason i thought the ULL would be out of here by now....Also keep says from Louisiana to Mexico as likely spots. Florida i just could not see!


I'm not sure where 93L will wind up....north central GOM is a possibility.
If I have learned anything here, it's to pay attention to the official forecast from the NHC and NWS first and foremost, appreciate the graphics and official information posted, and take 99% of the wishcasting and comments for entertainment value only. Until the NHC names a storm and starts drawing cones, there is no reason to get excited or concerned. Sometimes in here, just like on some game sites... these people just need to get a life! I won't second guess the pros, and have to laugh at most of the bloggers who think they know more than the NHC experts. When I feel someone has made a great observation based on real data, I like to acknowledge them for it... otherwise I am just lurking in the back ground to absorb as much information as I can, and post official information I come across that no one has already posted. That said,... back to lurk mode!
Quoting polarcane:
Yea there are still blue tarps here to attest to that!


Just goes to show that Cat 2 storms are still very powerful.

I learned that lesson after Frances in 2004.
2785. IKE
Quoting polarcane:
Yea there are still blue tarps here to attest to that!


And some want to get hit by a hurricane? Hard to figure.
Quoting IKE:


This heat wave we've had was forecast to break....and break...and break.

It's slowly backed off but not near as fast as these models indicated.

Models jump the gun more often in the summer when the jet stream is further north and things move slower.
Yea I was outside yesterday sitting under a canopy and still managed to get sunburnt. My canopy was under a shade tree also. Sun is just intense right now.
2787. IKE
Quoting polarcane:
Yea I was outside yesterday sitting under a canopy and still managed to get sunburnt. My canopy was under a shade tree also. Sun is just intense right now.


Same here...everything looks dead from lack of rain and intense heat.

Looks like 93L has a shot at hanging in the GOM all week causing numerous arguments on here.

The NAMS and NOGAPS show it almost exactly where Bastardi said it would be at that time. I know he can be a little over the top and acts like a clown at times but thanks to him I was prepared for Wilma 4 days in advance. Who knows with this thing and if anything will bring some rain to some dry, crispy regions of the Gulf.
2790. IKE
Convection w/93L is starting to flair up again. Right on cue.
Quoting IKE:


And some want to get hit by a hurricane? Hard to figure.
Well last year I was asked by a coworker, "You enjoy watching these storms, why did you not stay to experience it?" I told them I am not stupid, I left to protect my family and local authorities told me to leave. I have children also. Gotta get them out of harms way.
2792. 7544
gfdl brings back 93l
2793. IKE
Quoting OnTheFlats:
The NAMS and NOGAPS show it almost exactly where Bastardi said it would be at that time. I know he can be a little over the top and acts like a clown at times but thanks to him I was prepared for Wilma 4 days in advance. Who knows with this thing and if anything will bring some rain to some dry, crispy regions of the Gulf.


Apparently he thinks northern-central GOM.

Does he have any idea on landfall?
93L's looking pretty sick this morning, and I'm even saying that lol. We should watch off Florida too take a look off it.
93L still has a decent shot in the GOMEX.
Quoting polarcane:
Yea I was outside yesterday sitting under a canopy and still managed to get sunburnt. My canopy was under a shade tree also. Sun is just intense right now.
I'm telling you!!! I had to put a couple of wet towels on top of the umbrella yesterday to keep the sun from scorching me through the umbrella. It works beautifully. I'm a fishing guide in The Everglades and this late spring/summer sun is already taking it's toll on me!!
Troll Juice Recipes

You all might need this.....be responsible tho...have a good day and will BBL late tonite! NO FIGHTING KIDS! IKE you keep the peace brother!
Quoting OnTheFlats:
I'm telling you!!! I had to put a couple of wet towels on top of the umbrella yesterday to keep the sun from scorching me through the umbrella. It works beautifully. I'm a fishing guide in The Everglades and this late spring/summer sun is already taking it's toll on me!!
wow!
Yesterday's flare up was not persisitant enough, as whatever center there might have been passed over the Yucatan. Most models backing off on any development, with some agreement of moisture pulling into central florida. No sign of real relief for texas, canadian still goes with the heat.Potenetial still there for tropical development, but potential is all there is right now.

think of frozen drinks with umbrallas. Until then, I'm off to run across the road.

Good day, blogggers.
Quoting OnTheFlats:
The NAMS and NOGAPS show it almost exactly where Bastardi said it would be at that time. I know he can be a little over the top and acts like a clown at times but thanks to him I was prepared for Wilma 4 days in advance. Who knows with this thing and if anything will bring some rain to some dry, crispy regions of the Gulf.
Gotta love Bastardi. He is passionate about hurricanes.
Quoting IKE:


Apparently he thinks northern-central GOM.

Does he have any idea on landfall?
He wouldn't say. He almost didn't want to say anything but the another Met. forced it out of him, he kind of said it on a whim. Then he said to tune into PRO Accuweather for the answer to the landfall. I don't have PRO, I'm better off with Tropical Wunderground.
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience.
Quoting IKE:


Same here...everything looks dead from lack of rain and intense heat.

Looks like 93L has a shot at hanging in the GOM all week causing numerous arguments on here.

Maybe it will spread out to a huge blob that will take up the entire GOM and just rain on everyone and break this heat wave! That is my wishcast for the day!
2803. 7544
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience.


sure i think we can call that a sure bet
but was there ever seson in record that there was not one name storm ? anyone know
Quoting polarcane:
Gotta love Bastardi. He is passionate about hurricanes.
I know, it's a full on Love/Hate relationship.
Quoting 7544:


sure i think we can call that a sure bet
but was there ever seson in record that there was not one name storm ? anyone know


The most inactive season was 1914, 1 named storm and that was a 70 MPH TS. There were likely several other systems.
Quoting OnTheFlats:
He wouldn't say. He almost didn't want to say anything but the another Met. forced it out of him, he kind of said it on a whim. Then he said to tune into PRO Accuweather for the answer to the landfall. I don't have PRO, I'm better off with Tropical Wunderground.
The pro is almost worth it for the videos he puts out. You do get it free for one month or at least you used to. I usually get it around the peak of hurricane season and end up paying for two months and then cancel it during the fall. Probably get it late July or early August.
new blog...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience.
I couldn't agree more. That was one strange hurricane season. I was in Ft. Pierce surfing the day before Andrew and the ocean was dead calm and the tide was 2-3 ft. lower than forecast and I had an eerie feeling. On the way home at the corner of Orange Ave. and US 1 in Ft. Pierce, there were 10-15 huge Peacocks running around on US 1 and that's when I knew something serious was going to happen from the storm.
2810. SLU
Morning

93L is almost completely gone but there's a chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf.

What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better.
I'm on the SE Florida coast and was wondering what anyones opinion was on that huge blob of the SE coast bringing some rain to us. I am laying new sod on my yard today and the extra rain would be awesome!
Quoting SLU:
Morning

93L is almost completely gone but there's a chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf.

What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better.
I'm thinking the SST's are a still too cool to support development plust the dry, dusty air just off the coast impedes development until later on in the season