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A June 1 surprise: Tropical Storm Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:25 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

The hurricane season of 2007 officially began today, and we officially have our second surprising named storm of the season--Tropical Storm Barry. Barry is highly unusual in that it developed in the presence of strong wind shear--about 20-40 knots. I've never seen a tropical storm form under more than about 25 knots of wind shear. Satellite loops show a well-defined circulation to the west of Key West, and heavy thunderstorm activity popping up on the north side of the center. Barry is over the warm 82F waters of the Loop Current, and will gradually traverse over colder waters as it moves north and then north-northeast over the next day. The circulation of Barry is now visible on the Key West radar. Pulaski Shoal Light just to the northeast of Barry's center recorded sustatined winds of 35 mph, gusting to 40mph, at 2pm EDT today.

The Hurricane Hunters are still in Barry, and found that the pressure continues to drop--997 mb at 6:30pm EDT. The winds are also increasing, with the top winds at 77 mph at flight level of 1,500 feet at 5pm EDT. This corresponds to peak surface winds of about 60 mph. However, these winds are not representative of the storm, and likely occurred in the outflow from the strongest thunderstorm near the center. NHC is justified in bringing the intensity up to just 50 mph in their 8pm advisory.

I don't expect Barry will intensify to a hurricane, due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters underneath. Barry should mostly be a blessing for Florida, who can use the 3-6 inches of rain the storm is likely to bring. Some storm surge flooding may occur along the same stretch of coast affected by Tropical Storm Alberto last year. However, no damage was reported due to Alberto's storm surge, and Barry's should be roughly the same magnitude. Perhaps the greatest threat from Barry will be tornadoes that could form Saturday afternoon over Florida.

Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Barry at 8am EDT.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Tampa Bay radar.

A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in second place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Third place is held by 1934, when the second storm of the year formed on June 4. The second storm of 1934 was also the worst June hurricane on record. It hit Central America as a Category 1 hurricane, dropping up to 25 inches of rain on Honduras, triggering landslides that killed 3,000 people.

There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1934 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and no intense hurricanes.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted earlier today.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program will be airing a long interview with me today about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The show is carried on NPR stations in MI, WI, IL, IN, IA, MN, NC, NY, VA, and WI, and airs live today at 1pm or 8pm EDT. Check http://thestory.org/Stations for local stations and times. You can also listen live on the Internet at NPR station wunc.org in North Carolina. The host, Dick Gordon, is a very gifted interviewer, and it should be an interesting program. The MP3 of the interview is at http://thestory.org/archive/the_story_263_Hunting_Hurricanes.mp3.


Last night, I was guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen to a podcast of my 50-minute spiel at http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

good morning all

A big high pressure has set itself up over the W Caribbean and this may allow for some development from one of those blobs

Link
Shear values are low in the W. Caribbean. I think we could see development down there this month.
Morning kman,

I was looking at the one that is setting up just off the Honduras coast. The other one is in the vicinity of where Barry started off, isn't it?
Morning y'all ☺

Wow, the GFDL and CMC both take this thing right along the Carolina coast and actually show it intensifying all the way till it is up near the OBX...Kinda like what SSIG was hinting at last night.
HurricaneFCast~ Your question on the lack of satalite, it's was probibly blackout. Happens every night for a few hours. All good now. See a new blow up near the center. Rainbow loop
I was recently thinking about the last June when we had early heavy rains. That year we got so much rain that houses in some parts of the island were flooded to a depth of six feet. Consider that New Providence is pretty flat, and that the island is entirely porous limestone, and you will get an idea of how much rain must have fallen. It rained every day for 3 weeks at one point. It has been quite some time since it has rained like that, however.
Baha good morning

I just looked at the obs at Belize
W wind with a pressure of 1003.9 and a 4 mb pressure drop in less than 2 hrs. This is due S of where Barry started
Suspicious !
Morning SJ~ He's packin wind had it not been for the high shear this would have been a scary scary storm. Got 3.6" so far..
1009. Jedkins
I am in pinnelas ounty along the coast chiklit, haved picked up 2.98 so far, that intense band has DBZ of 58, anytime you see that in a TC that is extremely intense convection, local weather guys said expext 4 to 6 inch an hour rain rates and wind gusts 50 to 60 mph with this line along with water spouts.


Folks I'm aout to bear what little brunt this storm can muster up! LOL
Good morning...Barry is well to our west here in Naples, but we did get some relief in the form of .86 inch of rain here in North Naples...

Feel free to view (and bookmark) my weatherunderground weather station site as well as my weather web page for up to date weather info for the balance of the hurricane season.

Here are the links:

http://www.naples-fl-weather.com

Naples Weather Display Live

Weatherunderground station
will be back when we have vis images to look at
Rainfall rates on TRMM for the last 3 hrs.
1013. TayTay
So far, I don't think either of the Atlantic storms deserved names. This storm looks more like a Noreaster than a tropical cyclone.
Skye- 2 1/2 inches of rain here at my house. Strong band getting ready to head this way.
The rain is finally over. Still a little cloudy and breezy. This storm gave me 8.4 inches of rain. (West Palm Beach)
Pinellas County here, nice steady all night rain here. Thanks Barry. I have a question for the people with more knowledge. Is there any chance Barry could slow down and intensify?
Shear is too high. Most likely if Barry was to slow down it would weaken sitting in shear.
StPeteBill,

not likely from what I've read.
TayTay,

That was not, however, true yesterday. When I checked in around 5 p. m. yesterday Barry still had some impressive storms near the COC and, in fact, seemed to be building there. This morning's appearance has been largely the result of overnight sheer.
Pressure is about 1007 at the Palm Beach Airport.
looks like there is more convection trying to form near the center. We might be seeing one more little burst on instinsification before Barry goes right into the mouth of Tampa Bay.
Apocalyps2,

I guess where there is life there is hope, eh?

However, I think my dreams have a better chance of being fulfilled by Barry than yours do LOL.

Mind u, it would be nice if some of the moisture would wrap around and keep the rain going over the super-dry firestricken areas of N FL, but I don't see much meteorologically to sustain such a hope . . .
g35wayne,

They said that might happen in the last forecast discussion. Looks like they may be right.
Morning Rays..

WPB uh wow you got us all beat on rainfall so far.

StPeteBill~ not likely~ The front has grabbed it, the dry air is shoving it along now. Same reason it's not going to MS...
Morning Rays ☺ Looks like you are the lucky winner 0f one land-falling Barry as requested :~)

G35, this thing is supposed to intensify from here on out if you believe the CMC and GFDL, granted it should not be truly tropical much longer. GFDL shows it at 983mb just off the Carolina coast.

That said, it does look like it is trying to wrap some moisture around the center...
Since Barry spun up...I've decided to release my June 2007 GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation early. I'll update tomorrow morning with the latest imagery.

Enjoy!
Yeah we may see a slight intensification & more rain for the bugaboo fires with the new convetion, shouldn't see much slowing though.
Is the GFDL forecasting development off that "blob" off the coast of Belize? Link
Baha, GFDL is storm specific and will only be run when there is an invest or actual storm.
SJ- I will take Barry any day.

Not going to say anything more about any storm.
Is aid I would take a TS or Cat.1 nothing more.
Here is the current weather report from Gainesville, FL as of 7:20 AM. We have light rain that is about a "3" on the 1 to 10 scale. Not much wind either, maybe a 10 MPH breeze. It looks like dry air is sucking the life out of Barry. Will Barry be downgraded at the 8:00 AM advisory? A definate possibility.
The mouth of Tampa Bay is ready to take Barry The canals should have gotten a good dousing here.
It's raining again....
Very dry air is encroaching on the Belize blob from the W. Development chances there may not be that good
Link
Local Reading.
Observed at: Tampa Vandenberg, Florida
Elevation: 20 ft / 6 m

75 F / 24 C
Light Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 73 F / 23 C
Wind: 8 mph / 13 km/h / 3.6 m/s from the SE
Pressure: 29.66 in / 1004 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 miles / 11.3 kilometers

Since Barry spun up...I've decided to release my June 2007 GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation early. I'll update tomorrow morning with the latest imagery.

Enjoy!
Wind has been around 15-20 MPH in West Palm. Not much but it has picked up from last night. Pressure is down to 1006, and its raining now.
Good morning my friends, in the past 24 hours my house received almost 3 1/2 inches of rain. I'm in Broward County about 12 miles inland. I'm hearing reports of about that amount over most of SE Fla.
Hi Sky, see you got some much needed rain also!

this is good rain, nice and steady; no street flooding on the drive to work this morning which is always good.

hope all of Florida fares as well.

will be back when I get a chance.
Baha~ actually you can see what the gfdl thinks on the storm analysis. It didn't think it would get as far as it has on the last run when it was projecting it as a short lived future storm.
It gets gusty in some of these showers, just had one at 25. Not much but still something.
current weather in Lauderhill, FL

Observed at: Hill Observatory, Lauderhill, Florida
Elevation: 10 ft / 3 m

77.4 F / 25.2 C
Light Rain
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 74 F / 23 C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph / 22.5 km/h / 11.3 m/s
Pressure: 29.70 in / 1005.6 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 79 F / 26 C

1045. Jedkins
nobody is paying attention to the most intense weather this storm has to offer is about hit me in pinnelas.

This is an extremely intense squall line about to hit me any second, even frequent liightning with this its so strong.
1046. ricderr
jed......you think if there's tons of lightning you might not want to have your computer plugged in?
SJ,

Did u look at the link I posted? I'm wondering if that is an older system than Barry or a newer one.
Jedkins, I'm glad you are getting to experience the worse of Barry! Please keep us updated.


according to radar, I think it is about over for South Florida. no more clouds coming our way.

but as your were talking about, got some interesting blobs out there, are any of those going to develope???

will check back for answers.
Morning Gams..

It wolk me up in the middle of the night looking like a true tropical storm. I saved a radar bit on my blog, in the comments (click my name if ya wanna see it). Had a mesocyclone come over the NWS put out a special statement about 45mph winds. Pretty steady winds all night really. Had there not been all this shear....
1053. ricderr
here in psl i had 4.75 inches in the rain gauge...gusts just over 20mph....and lost a limb on one tree....nice little reality check....knew i should have cut the tree down after wilma....just didn't have the heart to do it......she dies this weekend though
Baha, Those flooding rains were in 1997. Remember it well eastern New providence had over 40" of rain that month, 27" in 24 hours and 19" in 3 hours
Baha go here it's #13. What your looking at is just as old #6 on there, look at the time 01 the 12Z run. Fresh run on Barry here (scroll right click forward). Sorry that phase analisis is as just of out of time. Your Belize storm lived longer than it thought it would though.
1056. i12BNEi
North Pinellas pressure is 999
I want pressure readings from ya'll that get the center:)
Oh my gosh - it's RAINING in Savannah...woooo hoooooooo! Hellloooooooooo Barry.
Morning mel, and congrats ☺
good morning all!!! just stopping by to check in...looks like barry wont intensify but congrats to all you floridians on the much needed rain!!! have a great day!
ricderr~ weak trees tend to die before a low pressure moves in. A sign your gonna get a quick pressure drop.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:25 AM GMT on June 02, 2007.

It's raining again....


Ok... now you Floridians have been complaining about no rain for months. Now you get all the rain you want and your complaining about it?!

someone slap me.. this makes no sense!
8.5 inches in the bucket at West Palm Beach. I think I'm happy now.
OH NOOOO we are not complaining at all, we are jumping with joy over this rain here in Florida!!!!!
1066. i12BNEi
Lightning in North Pinellas as well.
1068. ricderr
who complained? LOL.....
Looks like the worst of Barry is coming ashore in Clearwater and St. Pete.
NasBahMan,

Thanks for the reminder of the year. I couldn't remember exactly when it was, though I knew it was since Andrew :o). I do recall rainfall totals were WAY above normal, even for June which is usually a rainy month.

Welcome, BTW. Good to see at least one other Bahamian on the board . . .

No one in Florida is complaining about any of this.
Posted By: seflagamma at 11:48 AM GMT on June 02, 2007.

OH NOOOO we are not complaining at all, we are jumping with joy over this rain here in Florida!!!!!


oh ok good... that just sounded a bit like whining to me... hehehe

I've very happy for you guys and your poor Lake Okeechobee!
1073. ricderr
apo...fitting name.....think it might go way west and hit california? :-)
Morning from Hudson (PASCO Co.) FL.. things look greener already. Actually very pretty morning.

Trying to decide if I go to work or not today. There looks like a real strong band heading our way, but what's after that? The center looks like it is heading right for us, but isn't all the rain ahead of it? Should I stay put? or will this be over by mid day? I have a 45 mile commute to Tampa near the fairgrounds.
Preassure lowest it's been in Pinellas County right now, it's 998.3 and falling.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...27.1 N...83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
1077. Patrap
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico Link
For those living in the Southeast this has got to be one of the most welcome rains that anyone could remember.

Barry, many thanks!
Many thanks to Patrap as well, for posting friendly loops.
(java always used to shut my computer down.)
1080. i12BNEi
Central Florida lightning display
Link
1081. Patrap
4 panel WV shows the shear and dry air that whooped up on BArry..Link
1082. Patrap
Firefox is Best as a browser Im finding out and hearing as of late.Firefox and JAVA have disputes in my PC too.
Not sure, but this may resolve some of y'alls Java issues. It resolved a lot of mine, including it locking up while trying to load loops.
1084. i12BNEi
N.Pinellas 997
Stepped outside for a moment. Winds here steady at about 8 - 10 knots. Light rain. The clouds aloft are racing by, headed off to the north. So far, no sign of the heavier rain one would assume was falling by looking at the IR loops. . .
Looks like Clearwater is getting hit with a strong band right now.
1087. Patrap
I have a upgrade fom JAva that improved Load times...it gets me by.Its the NOAA stuff that had load problems
Thanks for the tips, Skye. Appreciate it.
1089. i12BNEi
High tide in Pinellas County at Noon 2.89ft.
1090. Patrap
Fla Radar..Link
1091. Patrap
Bugaboo Fire to get good and wet.....
Pat, without that dry air, I think it could have made a weak Cat1. It survived and intensified in face of the shear yesterday, but the dry air put a big hit on it later in the day.
Upgrade, or updates, the memory increase should still help a lot with the various loops that are out there now. That is the site that the RAP site sends you to if you are having problems using their imagery.
1095. Patrap
Thanks SJ ..bookmarked it
5+ inches here already in Tarpon Springs (woohoo!). The pool is overflowing.

There is a natural high tide of 3+ feet at 1:13 PM this afternoon. Add another few feet of storm surge and there will be some coastal flooding around here.
are they still going to be sending recon out today or have they determined that shear ate this up?
1098. Patrap
Barry shows us that a system can wind up fast..given the right conditions..and that shear can crimp a development just as fast. Or hold it in check as in this case.
What a wonderful sight to wake up to, puddles! I checked a bucket I had outside, looks like at the very least 2 inches of rain, slow, steady, wonderful rain. Im lovin it!
Barry will be gone before you it with its current speed at 20mph and expected to futher increase, it will also not be a problem wind wise for anyone as the circulation is complete void of any deep thunderstorm activity.Recon may find a few 40-50kt readings to keep it a TS but those winds are likely in those squalls well removed from the center.

Atleast we got the much needed rain but unfortunately the big chunk to the south of cuba missed florida and i expect conditions to slowly begin to improve as barry continues to race of to the NNE.Adrian
1102. ricderr
Barry shows us that a system can wind up fast..given the right conditions..and that shear can crimp a development just as fast. Or hold it in check as in this case.

pat.....and to note...conditions can change so fast......how many were saying wednesday night there was no chance for this system to be tropical?
1103. Patrap
Yo!
Morning 23.

It looks like the big chunk S of Cuba isn't even going to give us much in the way of rain today . . .
1105. Patrap
FOols in fodder ric..LOL
Light rain here in Dade City and not much wind or lightning yet. But I see a band headed this way. I'm so not complaining about this much-needed rain!
1107. FLBoy
They're flying Barry right now. So far it still appears to be a TS.
1108. Patrap
Im calling it the Fire Dog Dowser of 07 ric.Or Bugaboos downfall ..
Barry, Bugaboo buster . . .
Any one have any thoughts on what kind of wind increase will be seen as it progresses up the E seaboard?

6z GFDL is saying it should be at it's weakest now and that it will intensify as it runs up the coast after entering the Atlantic for a brief period. Most other models suggest this also...
1111. FLBoy
Storm BARRY: Observed by AF #303
Storm #02 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #02: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: June 02, 2007 12:20:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 27 00 ' N 083 12 ' W (27.00 N 83.20 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 50 Knots (57.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 008 Nautical Miles (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 122
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 054 Knots (62.1 MPH) From 200
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 008 Nautical Miles (9.2 Miles) From Center At Bearing 120
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1000 Millibars (29.529 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 22C (71.6F) / 456 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 25C (77F) / 454 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 5 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 54 KT E Quadrant at 12:15:10 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


1112. Rodek
I sure wish Barry would share a little precip with the NW Florida panhandle. We're dry as a bone!
1113. ricderr
excellent name for it pat.......will be nice if up north they can get as much rain as we've had here
Why are all the buoy reports from the area so old?
SJ,

I'm thinking about Wilma's transition to extratropical and how that forward speed augmented the wind speed in the right front quadrant. I'm assuming we can expect some of that kind of augmentation, though if Barry's centre remains over land as much as forecast, I wouldn't expect so much of it.
1116. FLBoy
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 054 Knots (62.1 MPH) From 200

Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 50 Knots (57.5 MPH)

Minimum Pressure: extrap 1000 Millibars (29.529 Inches)


Barry is not finished yet. Those are still some strong winds for those not used to them. Folks in the cone should be ready for winds of almost hurricane strength in gusts. This is still a Tropical Storm!!....not a weak depression!!
Baha, looks like the center will get back in the Atl just N of the Space coast area and then straddle the coast line from Charleston Nwrd.
Is the tail end of barry going to Hit south florida?
Anyone think Barry is already extra tropical? Maybe the NHC is keeping it around because of the high winds.
Just checked the rain gauge 4.6 inches in
Wellington just NW of The Mall at Wellington Green.
Thought the rain was done at 8.5 inches but its raining again and its on her way to 9 inches.
1122. ricderr
watch out for downed trees up north.....pines are prevalent and they have a shallow root system.......rain on the needles adding weight and a strong wind push and they're easilly toppled
It seems the heaviest rain totals are east of the Turnpike.
Barry had a sub-tropical look to it for most of it's short life. Frontal-type features were prominent and it's wind field was spread out over a wide area.
WPB,

I was saying something about this earlier.

At this point, I think NHC might be looking more at whether the core is still warm and whether the circulation is still closed.
A couple of those feeder bands heading into Florida should be the focal point of some nasty storms this afternoon.
With the forward speed increasing I am wondering if the shear will effect it less since the forward speed will be in the direction of the shear.
1128. Patrap
Shear is way faster than the forward motion SJ.
Looks like the center is starting to catch up with convection. Link
Or is the low pressure getting harder to find?
1132. Patrap
4 panel WV shows the shear and dry air that whooped up on BArry..Link
I agree Baha, as long as the circulation is closed and the core is warm, it will remain tropical.

Yes pat, but if it is moving in the direction of the shear at 15-20mph then that would effectively reduce shear by 15 to 20mph correct. As opposed to shear that is running across a systems forward path. Correct?
1134. FLBoy
That's a bad Meso line moving into the St. Pete area. Keep your radios on.


1135. nash28
All is quiet right now over me. South Shore of Tampa. I think that is about to change shortly with that heavy band off shore.
1136. FLBoy
...FL...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ARE WELL
DEFINED THIS MORNING ON WV IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL DRIVE T.S. BARRY NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY LATE
TODAY AND OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NERN FL /JUST SOUTH OF JAX/ TO JUST NORTH OF TPA AT 12Z WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRIMARY
CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ALONG IT. PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS
EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS
THE TPA AREA AT 13Z. STRONG ESELY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INVOF CIRCULATION
CENTER/FRONT AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEEPEN/INCREASE AS MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION AIDS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE FL PEN.
GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND EXPECTED MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. REFERENCE TOR WW 330 AND ANY
FUTURE WATCHES/SWOMCDS FOR NOWCAST INFO ON THIS REGION.

1137. Patrap
I dont know SJ. But its going to haul butt outta Fla by Late afternoon looks like.STill lotsa rain to fall in the areas that need it.
I'm just an avid weather nut, no knowledge.. And I know that in this sat image that this is not the center, .. so I'm not suggesting an eye or anything.. but what is that dark hole off the coast of Pinellas in the last frame??

I don't know how to post a link but this is the url ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html



Heavy steady rain here in Jacksonville, FL now. Winds are dead calm. Several weeks ago I laughed when someone said that the fires in south GA would not be out until June 1st. Yes exactly June 1st. Little did I know!
SJ,

If the storm is moving in the direction of shear, wouldn't the shear then become steering winds? Or would it be shear and steer? [for some reason that made me think lamb and beef]


Looking at FLBoy's graphic just posted, seems that circulation is moving in just north of Tampa . . .
1141. Patrap
Floater 2 shows the center west of Tampa...Link
Here is the 9:00 AM update from Gainesville, FL

There is only a drizzle of rain & the wind is close to zero. From the NHC forecasted path, Barry should be moving right over Gainesville between 2&4 PM Today. I will make another post at 11:00 PM. The winds should start picking up some by then.
Glad to hear it, Jax. Hopes it keeps up for most of the day.
RMM,

To paste a link, select Link on the bar above the comment box. Past your link into the box that pops up. If you want to make some text you already typed into a link, highlight the text, then click on "Link". Here is your URL: Link
Been so busy lately with Barry, now that it's waning I went to spaceweather and a new active sunspot just came into the solar disk. 4 M-class flares in the last 24 hrs.

NOAA SEC has a 10% change of an X-class flare in the 0-24hr and 24-48hr time-frames.

Looks like something is going to be stirring the brew over the next 2 weeks.
1146. nash28
Barry has a VERY short period of time to have another convective burst before landfall in Tampa. Let's see if he can do it.
Thanks Baha, when it asked for the size I didn't know what to put..

any comment on that hole?? I don't know what else to call it..
It has really started moving pat. AS for the center, it looks to be closer to the St Pete area from visible and radar.

lmao Baha ☺

Sheer and Steer it is...
So what effects are associated with the different classes sullivan?
Morning Nash, I thought landfall was going to be north of Tampa?
Yes pat, but if it is moving in the direction of the shear at 15-20mph then that would effectively reduce shear by 15 to 20mph correct. As opposed to shear that is running across a systems forward path. Correct?

I think that's correct. I think that's how some of the storms from 2005 managed to survive.
1152. ricderr
such a shame it's dry on the ackside of this system...would have been nice to get the added rain
1153. nash28
Hey Stormybil. It probably will be north of Tampa, but pretty darn close. Could be right over St. Pete.
Thanks Baha, when it asked for the size I didn't know what to put..

You must have hit image instead of link.
Yep ric. I am holding out hope that it can pull some moisture around when it reaches the Atl, but not banking on that.
Solar flares release tremendous amount of energy into the heliosphere and eventually some of this energy impacts Earth. I don't know the exact effects that they have, but some level of energy get added to the system, changing patterns, ect.
Morning all.

Looks like the CMC had this one pegged from the get go. During the last 3 years, the CMC sure seems to be the most accurate for early season genesis and path. Then, as the season wears on and the storms form further to the east, the CMC accuracy seems to faulter a bit. Anyone else notice this trend and/or know why this might be the case?

tia
1158. OkeeJan
Sun is out at the North end of lake "O". Guess that is the end of the rain, not near enough!
SJ,

If it does get out over the Gulf Stream, there's a chance. A wee bitty chance, but a chance. That would be great for northern FL as well as coastal GA/SC. Dunno how points north will feel, though; they've gotten quite a bit of rainfall recently.
Also, Taz was posting, repeatedly LOL, the warm eddy current graphic and everyone kind of pooh-poohed him away.

In hindsight, I wonder if he was on to something in that, despite all of the shear, the Blob turned into a Barry.

Thoughts?
1161. ricderr
well....we're getting the last of the outer rain band right now and just had a gust of 23mph.....funny.....out cleaning the pool...watching rain almost vertical......the difference...at 100 mph...the rain stings...this just feels good
1162. salter
morning all here in zephyrhills quiet, bar 29.90 1.83 inches of gold and wind at 3.2 out of the se . hey good to see you again nash28
WhoooHOOOO...

Looka here.. what the GFS is predicting for next Thurs.

Link


Looks like at least a Cat 1 hitting South FL...

Let the party get started.... storm every week..hurricane every other week...
Guys,please help i have two questions
1.Will more Rain from barry Hit south florida?
2.were is the link to the model page?
1165. nash28
I was saying for several days that although it seemed like the "outlier", the CMC had been consistently showing a TS coming ashore around or north of the Tampa area. This even before the Low formed.

Homerun for the CMC!
1166. nash28
Good morning Salter!

Here in Apollo Beach waiting for that nasty feeder band which is crossing over Macdill AFB right now.
Posted By: whirlwind at 9:27 AM EDT on June 02, 2007.

WhoooHOOOO...

Looka here.. what the GFS is predicting for next Thurs.

Link


Looks like at least a Cat 1 hitting South FL...

Let the party get started.... storm every week..hurricane every other week...


You are right,whirlwind i think we should keep an eye on the model!
1168. ricderr
yep nash.......is it...even a blind dog gets a bone...or the year of the models?
That is a long way out, and we all know how the GFS goes crazy early season.
"Homerun for the CMC!"

Yea, it was very persistent. Almost obnoxiously/in-your-face so. If you can go back and look, it has done this repeatedly on storms forming near the Yucatan and relatively early in the season.

I'm starting to become a believer. I'll quit being so later in the season though when I tend to depend more on the GFS and others.
Posted By: whirlwind at 9:27 AM EDT on June 02, 2007.

WhoooHOOOO...

Looka here.. what the GFS is predicting for next Thurs.

Link


Looks like at least a Cat 1 hitting South FL...

Let the party get started.... storm every week..hurricane every other week...


party?

sorry, but landfalling hurricanes are not reason for celebration.
I kind of have to give it up to Taz as well, assuming he meant by showing his warm eddy loop graphic that Barry might form when all indications were that there was little or no way that a TS could/would form.
Well, if CMC is the one to look at, what is THAT saying for week after next Thursday?
No wind to speak of at all here in St Pete just plenty of much needed rain. Local media was all hyped up for 35 - 50 mph winds?
Baha,

CMC only goes 144 hours out. I didn't see anything ominous on CMC. Did I miss something?
1176. Patrap
The loop eddy was not the role player your making it out to be SW. It was marginal in SSts..at best..its down in temp from last week.
Seems like the rain is over here in NW Pasco.. It is very calm.. Trees are barely stiring.. Is this the calm before the storm? Right now I'm having a hard time justifying not going into work...
On another TC, it looks like BARBARA is making landfall right about now. The area of Mexico where it is coming ashore is fairly mountainous, so I don't know about the LLC surviving the trip, but some of the moisture related to her may make it into the SW Car. or the GoM.
1179. Patrap
Plus ,,the GFSx was on this 13 days ago with the genesis..and did excellent on the days after.All the models are important.Its the consensus among them that gives the insight.Not just 1 performer.
1180. FLBoy


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021304Z - 021400Z

WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN FL AS POCKETS OF
SURFACE HEATING AID IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

REGIONAL RADARS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY OFF THE SW FL
COAST /50 SW EYW TO 55 NNW EYW/ SINCE 12Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS OVER SRN FL WITH ADDITIONAL
BREAKS POSSIBLE WITHIN DRY SLOT THAT HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF FL. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT EYW/MIA ARE UNCAPPED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THUS...SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.

IF OFFSHORE LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND/OR ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...
THEN WW MIGHT BECOME WARRANTED.

1181. Patrap
GOM 60 hour SSTs model and more..area specific..Link
Patrap,

Please don't misunderstand. I'm not making a case for it necessarily. I'm "asking" if this helps to explain why the blob turned into a TS with 30 kts of shear above it. Dr. Masters even said he had never seen a storm form with that much shear.
Plus ,,the GFSx was on this 13 days ago with the genesis..and did excellent on the days after.All the models are important.Its the consensus among them that gives the insight.Not just 1 performer.

No argument regarding last thress comments in your post. However, the GFS was not on this. In fact, the CMC was WAY OUT on a limb for much of this storm and there was quite a bit of discounting on here about it's accuracy.
1184. Patrap
The shear was in flux as the storm gathered Mo...and it did gather mo ..from the warmers SSts in the area NE of the YUcatan...a small tightly wound surface circ..sometimes can get things going in a hurry.Those things hard to forecast easily.But all in all..I wasnt surprised to see Barry form.Happens often in June...
1185. Patrap
I specifiacllly said the GFSx..its the experimental model..not the GFS itself
lol laggie...I expect the CMC to jump off the deep end later in the season also ☺

Great to see you salter!

Updated the StormJunkie.com Barry page. I know it seems a little late now, but I was waiting on the MIMIC imagery.
Shear dropping in the GOM. Link
1188. Patrap
The GFSx is a 10day model..not a 144
1189. Patrap
GFSx...Link
1190. Patrap
GOM now 80% filled with DRY air..Link
1191. Patrap
The trough wacked 2 storms .BArry and Barbara
I specifiacllly said the GFSx..its the experimental model..not the GFS itself

LOL, yes you did and you just caught me in a senior moment. I didn't notice/pay attention to the little x.

Thanks amigo.
Baynews9 in St Pete is reporting the center of Barry is coming on shore now along the coast of Pinellas County. Can this be possible, there is no wind at all here??
1194. Patrap
The senior moment I can relate too..LOL.
StormJunkie.. thanks.. that MIMIC Imagery is awesome. Now I actually know where the storm is. Guess I'll sit here awhile longer based on that.
Barry, we hardly knew ye...looking at this morning's satellite pics, that looks nothing like a tropical storm.
Good morning, we had over an inch of rain in Gainesville, FL this morning. No real wind to speak of but the beneficial rain is great. This should turn off the fires for awhile and a make a small dent in the drought.

As for Tropical Storm Barbara, I don't see that making it across to the Carribean/Gulf. According to Steve Lyons, it will rapidly die out.
1198. Patrap
I like the GFSx ..it goes out in time a gives a window to what MAY occur.But observation and insight will always be the keys in following the storms.
1199. salter
Hey good to hear from you Stormjunkie, i've been around just lurking for the most part. not much change here in z-hills last hour but you can tell something is brewing
I've been sleeping through recon..slap, Up again with coffee this time...morning again:)

Storm BARRY: Observed by AF #303
Storm #02 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #02: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: June 02, 2007 13:35:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 27 18 ' N 082 54 ' W (27.30 N 82.90 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 Knots (46 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 10 Nautical Miles (11.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 070
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 044 Knots (50.6 MPH) From 181
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 010 Nautical Miles (11.5 Miles) From Center At Bearing 071
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1002 Millibars (29.588 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 480 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 457 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 5 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 44 KT E Quadrant at 13:31:40 Z
2: Maximum Flight Level Temp 22 C, 71 / 10NM
3: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted By: Patrap at 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2007.

I specifiacllly said the GFSx..its the experimental model..not the GFS itself


The GFSx isn't experimental...it's just a ten day GFS forecast.It was formerly called the MRF.
1203. Patrap
Gee Kris..that hurt..LOL
New 12z Models starting to come out..
That is some great imagery RMM. I really like the fact that they have added a Java version of the MIMIC this year.
1206. Patrap
Now Im feeling kinda..depressed
Statement as of 07:30 am EDT on June 02, 2007


... Record daily maximum rainfall set at West Palm Beach...

a record rainfall of 3.44 inch(es) was set at West Palm Beach today.
This breaks the old record of 3.2 set in 1892.



Raindance!!!!!!!!!!!
Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: BARRY (02L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF303
Observation Number: 02
Time: 1100Z
Latitude: 29.6N
Longitude: 87.6W
#NAME?
Surface: 1011 mb; Temp: 76F; Dewpt: 67F; N (10) @ 16 mph
1000mb height: 305 ft; Temp: 74F; Dewpt: 67F; N (10) @ 16 mph
925mb height: 2523 ft; Temp: 64F; Dewpt: 61F; NE (40) @ 15 mph
850mb height: 4888 ft; Temp: 58F; Dewpt: 53F; NE (35) @ 20 mph
700mb height: 10177 ft; Temp: 43F; Dewpt: 9F; NNE (25) @ 21 mph
500mb height: 18963 ft; Temp: 16F; Dewpt: 3F; N (350) @ 20 mph
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
SPL 2958N08757W 1058 MBL WND 01515 AEV 20700 DLM WND 02016
010494 WL150 01014 082 =

1011mb winds: N (10) @ 16 mph
978mb winds: N (10) @ 17 mph
926mb winds: NE (40) @ 15 mph
914mb winds: NE (40) @ 18 mph
893mb winds: NNE (25) @ 18 mph
850mb winds: NE (35) @ 20 mph
793mb winds: NE (40) @ 18 mph
774mb winds: ENE (60) @ 20 mph
743mb winds: NE (35) @ 24 mph
709mb winds: NE (40) @ 22 mph
638mb winds: NNW (340) @ 20 mph
617mb winds: N (360) @ 23 mph
496mb winds: N (350) @ 20 mph
485mb winds: NNW (335) @ 16 mph
#VALUE!
I'm depressed too.. I think I have to go to work now!
Congratulations to WPB!!!!!

I see Jed hasn't returned since his last post about getting hit by the heavest part of the storm. Has anyone heard from him? I guess he may be getting some serious wind and rain. just wondering....
ohyes, SE Fla is done now as far as I can see on radar. was outside while ago and sun coming out. Oh well the rain was nice while it lasted! LOL!
1213. Patrap
7
i can really tell that this season is going to be very busy.We already have dealed with 2 storms,and it's only the 2nd day of hurricane
season!
Did have higher winds earlier

Sat Jun 02 2007
1404 GMT
Latitude 27.9 N
Longitude 83.3 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1476 feet (450 meters)
Flight level winds 310 degrees at 14 knots (16 mph)
Temperature 19 C Dewpoint 19 C
Surface Pressure 1003 millibars
Surface winds 300 at 10 knots (11 mph)
Remarks: AF303 0202A BARRY OB 10

Sat Jun 02 2007
1345 GMT
Latitude 26.9 N
Longitude 83.3 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1509 feet (460 meters)
Flight level winds 310 degrees at 24 knots (27 mph)
Temperature 20 C Dewpoint 20 C
Surface Pressure 1004 millibars
Surface winds 310 at 15 knots (17 mph)
Remarks: AF303 0202A BARRY OB 09

Sat Jun 02 2007
1331 GMT
Latitude 27.4 N
Longitude 82.7 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1509 feet (460 meters)
Flight level winds 180 degrees at 44 knots (50 mph)
Temperature 22 C Dewpoint 22 C
Surface Pressure 1002 millibars
Surface winds 180 at 35 knots (40 mph)
Remarks: AF303 0202A BARRY OB 07

Hurray for Tampa Bay Looks like we get the first strike of the Season. Center is sitting 60 miles off the coast of pinellas county.
1217. Patrap

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are still quite cool in June, which limits the regions where tropical storm formation can occur. Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest (Figure 1). This year (Figure 2), SSTs are below average in the region surrounding Florida, so we should expect any storms that do form to occur in the Western Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. Another possibility is that the disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for last year's Tropical Storm Alberto (which may have also had help from an African wave).


from Dr. MAsters entry yesterday
The x in that stands for ensemble

No,it stands for extended.
1219. Patrap
The dry air and shear wacked Barry down ..like forecasted..Link
Hey all, Anyone know where to retrieve 24 hour rainfall totals ? Lady on TWC said West Palm got 7 inches of rain ! I'm guessing we had 3-4 inches here !
1221. ricderr
gamma...hopefully with all the lightning he turned off his computer and unplugged...i know we all love the "excitement" and sharing of events...but doing the smart thing should be imperative
This... Is a bad omen. A TS strike on tampa early in the season means only one thing... Y'all'd better get ready for your CAT 5. It's your turn.
*Cackle*
Hellsnipper NOt here I'm suprised we got this
It looks like the new models are taking the storm right up the Chesapeake Bay... right where I live...
1226. FLBoy
It appears Barry wants to make landfall much further south than the official track. If that is true then the models will probably take it off-shore from the east coast next run. That sounds conceivable but I'm hoping it stays on-shore so no further development is possible.
Finally some heavier downpours here in Nassau. Winds are still relatively light, and no thunderstorms, which is good. Looks like we will be having another rainy day.
1230. FLBoy
Southern FL should be expecting this line coming in. Could be some severe weather when this gets over heated land areas.


Wow, Dr Lyons just confirmed what I thought I was seeing, and was having a hard time understanding the past 2 hrs. The old low level center has fallen apart, and now a new extra tropical center is forming just to the N under the convection....
mda91,

You can use this link to find shearing info.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

You can use this one for Sea Surface Temps

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
(scroll down SST link on right at bottom)

or

You can get both at this link

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html


This site has even more informational links

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
1233. FLBoy
That's exactly what has happened SJ. The LLC has either dissipated or gone onshore and there is stil a broad area of low pressure to the NW of Tampa. Had me confused till a couple mins ago too.
mda, sheer should reduce as the systems becomes extratropical and gets imbeded in the flow a little more as it move N. As for the SSTs, there is a eddy of warm Gulf Stream waters just off the Charleston coast, but generally the temps are still running under 80 between the coast and the Gulf Stream. There are some nice SST year to year comparison maps in my blog.
Flboy, I think the new circulation may be closer to N of Tampa or even NNE, but it was confusing me for awhile there...
1236. FLBoy
Probably a downgrade at 11. Looks more to me like that is just a mid to upper low that is left out there.
1237. salter
hey stormjunkie i think that right my bara. is going up here in z-hills raining like cats and dogs here now
1238. FLBoy

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...BARRY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INLAND ACROSS TAMPA BAY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT
NORTH OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM... NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH
...37 KM/HR. THE GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS A FEW SQUALLS. BARRY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE AS THE
CYCLONE MADE LANDFALL WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.



1239. FLBoy
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...SURFACE DATA AND INFORMATION FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS
BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAMPA BAY. THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DIMINISHED
TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WIND SHEAR. THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

NOTE: TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING WITHIN ABOUT
ONE HOUR...BARRY NEAR TAMPA BAY AND BARBARA NEAR THE BORDER OF
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
1240. salter
ok just when i say that it goes from 29.90 t0 29.85 wind out of sse at 10 mph
Well.. Guess I no longer have a reason not to drive. The sky is blue and the lake is like glass. Actually very very pretty here. But my son is giving me a real hard time.. He thought he was getting a free day off.. Maybe next week..
Note the sig. on the 11 a.m. discussion:

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA

Things are clearing slightly here for us, though looking at the sat. maps we may be in for another round later this afternoon.

I'm going out while there's a break in the rain - I have errands to run.

TTYL.
1244. FLBoy
Looks like the east coast is in for a bumpy ride.
1245. FLBoy
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD


AS BARRY PUSHES
NEWD...THE NAM WAS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLOW BAND REMAINING
ACRS S FL DURG SAT...ENHANCING HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL HERE. ACRS
THE SERN U.S...UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAR INLAND TO BRING HEAVY PCPN
AS BARRY PUSHES NEWD. ALL MODELS SHOW THE MID LAT UPR LOW TO THE
NW OF BARRY OVR THE SERN U.S. SHARPENING DURG DAY 1. THIS MAY
LEAD TO BARRY BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW
LATE DAY 1 AS PER LATEST TPC FORECAST. THE 12Z FRI EC AND THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CMC ARE MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT BRINGING HEAVY
PCPN POTENTIAL INLAND INTO THE SERN THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM OR
GFS. A FEW OF THE NAM SREF MEMBERS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE
HEAVIER INLAND SOLN OF THE EC/CMC. THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT PUSH
PCPN AS FAR INLAND AS THE EC/CMC BUT FARTHER WWD THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. HEAVIEST PCPN WL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST WHERE STRONGEST INFLOW WL BE OFF THE ATL AND WHERE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE NEAR THE CNTR. AREAL AVG 2-4"
AMTS DEPICTED FOR DAY 1 FROM N FL...NEWD ALONG THE SERN COAST.
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS OVER 5" POSSIBLE.
Boyntonbeach~ Here's the storm rainfall totals for your area. This could even be on the light side in spots as we had a blogger in WPB with 8 1/2".
Thank you Skyepony ! Is that a cumulative chart ? if I'm reading it correctly it says max rainfall 4.8 inches..
Lake worth florida here.
.76 inc of rain form 5.25 pm till now