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A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. bwi
Pressure drifting down at the buoy in the Yucatan channel, and winds have gone nearly calm (not common at that location).
2002. Patrap
my tropical cyclone knowledge is fairly minimal in comparison to some here, so what are the factors against 90L, that seem to convince the NHC to 'low ball' it? is it just model guidance? it looks to me like it has a real potential to become trouble, or maybe that's just flare ups from all the TCHP it's over... seems to be organizing, gaining vorticity, and perhaps stalling a little.
2005. hydrus
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Believe it's interacting with the ULL off the FL coast.

Appears stationary and better organized..
Fire weather... SE TX
a wild fire ignited yesterday in Brazoria County. Brazoria and
Wharton counties have kbdi values over 720 and kbdi values now
exceed 700 in 16 counties. The very warm temperatures and lack of
rain is again setting the stage for some critical fire weather
conditions. Winds are lighter which should help and relative humidity recovery
overnight has also been very good...but not as good as some
widespread rain
2007. Patrap
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

* Hurricane Monitoring
* Animated GOES Imagery
* SRCC Compilation of Satellite Imagery
* Ocean and Atmospheric Products


If it stalls, we'll take it here in S. FL... some nice rain in the central areas last night... didn't get as much in E. Boca but south of here near Pompano got pounded pretty well after 8PM.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 26th, with Video


Thanks as always Levi!
That persistent little spinning mini-blob south of LA... is it planning spin off east up into Centex?

It's been around a couple days.
2013. Patrap
Quoting hydrus:
Appears stationary and better organized..


Surely not arguing that point, It does look a lot better. Just need to start up engine #1, engine #2 is cranking.
2015. kwgirl
Quoting FLdewey:

For some reason the opening of Super Troopers just popped into my head...

Mother of God...
Good morning all. Thanks a lot for that prompting of my internal juke box. Now I will be singing it all day. Luckily I have the cd here at work so if need be I can get my full intake of ABBA. Last night we had some pop up thunderstorms here in Key West. Nice little 10 minute rain shower and a great lightning show in the Gulf. At least it rained hard enough to give the plants a good drink. Maybe I can go another week without watering considering the increased chances of showers for today and tomorrow. I say 90L reaches TD today.




2 other areas in blue i have circled to watch!
2018. Levi32
Quoting Minnemike:
my tropical cyclone knowledge is fairly minimal in comparison to some here, so what are the factors against 90L, that seem to convince the NHC to 'low ball' it? is it just model guidance? it looks to me like it has a real potential to become trouble, or maybe that's just flare ups from all the TCHP it's over... seems to be organizing, gaining vorticity, and perhaps stalling a little.


I mentioned the negative factors in my blog. They primarily have to do with the upper-level conditions around the storm. A broad, elongated upper-level trough draped across the southern Gulf of Mexico is partially shearing 90L, and subsidence/shearing from the big southern U.S. ridge is also going to be an issue.
To me the southern edge of the ridge has eroded along the gulf coast, I would expect a more NW movement of 90L
2020. hydrus
Quoting whepton3:
If it stalls, we'll take it here in S. FL... some nice rain in the central areas last night... didn't get as much in E. Boca but south of here near Pompano got pounded pretty well after 8PM.
If this shifts to the north, South Florida might get some decent rain...
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, July 26th, with Video


Nice job today Levi, you definitely have a future as a met. A little technical times for a non-met, but thats what I fight every day on TV.
2022. Levi32
Quoting Chucktown:


Nice job today Levi, you definitely have a future as a met. A little technical times for a non-met, but thats what I fight every day on TV.


Thanks Chuck...I appreciate it coming from you.
2025. hydrus
Convection continues to build...That warm water is helping.
Wonder how many people are still waiting for money on the Gulf Coast.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- BP reported $5.3 billion in second-quarter earnings Tuesday, marking a sharp turnaround from the staggering loss the oil company reported in the same period last year. The London-based multinational energy company lost $17.2 billion in the second quarter of 2010 due to costs stemming from the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster, the worst oil spill in U.S. history. That translates to a more than $22 billion turnaround year over year.
Quoting hydrus:
Convection continues to build...That warm water is helping.


In 48hrs we might have a Tropical Depression. In 72hrs we will likely see a Tropical Storm!
Quoting Chucktown:


Nice job today Levi, you definitely have a future as a met. A little technical times for a non-met, but thats what I fight every day on TV.
TWC 2015....watch out!! Here comes Levi...

Agreed. Nice job sir.
2031. myway
Quoting whepton3:
If it stalls, we'll take it here in S. FL... some nice rain in the central areas last night... didn't get as much in E. Boca but south of here near Pompano got pounded pretty well after 8PM.


Sitting @ the Irishman looking south it was a pretty good light show.
Quoting hydrus:
If this shifts to the north, South Florida might get some decent rain...


I'd love to see it happen, but I wonder how much of a stretch it is that 90L jumps north over Cuba... would be nice. My yard looks like dried hay.
I'd say, on the blob-o-scale, this is a high cat 3 blob. (On a dreamed-up 5 category scale of blob-potential...not limited to 48 hours.)


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1
Quoting Levi32:
High-res Visible Loop of 90L



The loop does not show a very good Surface Spin yet! But, its getting there! Coming for sure!
Too early to say a Mexico landfall, things are in motion, and the players around the system are cooking up a recipe for which way this sucka goes
2038. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'd say, on the blob-o-scale, this is a high cat 3 blob. (On a dreamed-up 5 category scale of blob-potential...not limited to 48 hours.)


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404


Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1


So 3 out of 5....you give it 60% chance Atmo?
Quoting Abacosurf:
TWC 2015....watch out!! Here comes Levi...

Agreed. Nice job sir.


I hope Levi doesn't "waste" his talents at TWC (not that I hate it, still a good source for weather to the general public), but he would be much more of an asset to the forecasting community working at NCAR in Boulder, CO or with his tropical knowledge, high up in the ranks at NHC.
2040. Levi32
Erratic wind directions at buoy 42056:


TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
7:50 am ENE ( 61 deg ) 0.9 m/s
7:40 am NNE ( 19 deg ) 0.9 m/s
7:30 am NNW ( 341 deg ) 1.6 m/s
7:20 am NNW ( 330 deg ) 1.6 m/s
7:10 am NNW ( 327 deg ) 1.2 m/s
7:00 am N ( 356 deg ) 1.3 m/s
Quoting Levi32:


So 3 out of 5....you give it 60% chance Atmo?
Closer to 70%, I think.

(Remember, not limited to 48 hours).

Also, given the nice, somewhat compact structure, when it pops, it is not going to need 36 hours to coalesce (unlike some of our more disorganized features with very broad structures).
Quoting Chucktown:


I hope Levi doesn't "waste" his talents at TWC (not that I hate it, still a good source for weather to the general public), but he would be much more of an asset to the forecasting community working at NCAR in Boulder, CO or with his tropical knowledge, high up in the ranks at NHC.


No question.

But wait...Levi's tropical tidbit stories....ahhh. forget it. Too restricting.
Man...some great links being posted this morning...time to build up the archives again...thanks Patrap, Levi, and others. Morning.
2046. Patrap
G' morn
2047. Levi32
It's true...I would melt. 75 degrees F at 15% humidity in the height of summer here is too much for me. Miami gets the same temp at 70% humidity in the middle of winter lol.
So has 90L been reinitialized.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Closer to 70%, I think.

(Remember, not limited to 48 hours).

Also, given the nice, somewhat compact structure, when it pops, it is not going to need 36 hours to coalesce (unlike some of our more disorganized features with very broad structures).



You have a good point of it being so compact. It just needs a good Surface Spin to really get going. Still not there yet, but getting close! So you think a Hurricane is possible?
Quoting TampaSpin:



You have a good point of it being so compact. It just needs a good Surface Spin to really get going. Still not there yet, but getting close! So you think a Hurricane is possible?
I think that entirely depends on when/where it pops, relative to landmasses.
(Assuming it pops at all...I *think* it will, but is certainly speculative.)
Quoting Levi32:
High-res Visible Loop of 90L


Looks like the upper level westerlies to the south and west of 90 are easing a bit.
I wonder why a Floater is not on 90L yet? Dang!
Quoting Chucktown:


I hope Levi doesn't "waste" his talents at TWC (not that I hate it, still a good source for weather to the general public), but he would be much more of an asset to the forecasting community working at NCAR in Boulder, CO or with his tropical knowledge, high up in the ranks at NHC.


I can see Levi ending up at the CPHC, first and then eventually transferred to the NHC.
Quoting DestinJeff:


But then he'd have to move to Miami ... from Alaska. No thanks.

Boulder, now, that isn't such a bad place. Actually, it very much a great place.

for sure. beautiful country up in Boulder.

Has anyone seen updated model runs for steering of 90L? (ie: will the high move east enough at the right time to allow a weak-ish system to come ashore on the TX coast?)
Quoting Levi32:
It's true...I would melt. 75 degrees F at 15% humidity in the height of summer here is too much for me. Miami gets the same temp at 70% humidity in the middle of winter lol.


Except for that one day in Feb when it gets to 70. We have two seasons here: blazin' hot and a little toasty.
Quoting Abacosurf:


No question.

But wait...Levi's tropical tidbit stories....ahhh. forget it. Too restricting.


The Weather Channel is what it is. Its now owned by a major network and driven by advertisement. Granted its quality has dropped significantly since it first came on, but so has a lot of mainstream America. I have a few friends that work there, it is run just like any other business. Cut costs where you can and make as much as you can with minimal staffing.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I think that entirely depends on when/where it pops, relative to landmasses.
(Assuming it pops at all...I *think* it will, but is certainly speculative.)


You don't see a good surface Low either yet as i do. Its getting close, but just not to the Surface yet.
2060. Patrap
The GOES-13 Floater is active on the RAMMB Page


Quoting jeffs713:

for sure. beautiful country up in Boulder.

Has anyone seen updated model runs for steering of 90L? (ie: will the high move east enough at the right time to allow a weak-ish system to come ashore on the TX coast?)


That's our hope! bring rain, but this needs to be watched, this one could spin up fast
Quoting Levi32:
It's true...I would melt. 75 degrees F at 15% humidity in the height of summer here is too much for me. Miami gets the same temp at 70% humidity in the middle of winter lol.
Levi have you ever been to the Tropics?
Quoting Chucktown:


The Weather Channel is what it is. Its now owned by a major network and driven by advertisement. Granted its quality has dropped significantly since it first came on, but so has a lot of mainstream America. I have a few friends that work there, it is run just like any other business. Cut costs where you can and make as much as you can with minimal staffing.


I concur with you 100%, quality has been slipping. I noticed it got worse after NBC purchased it, better as an independent entity.
It will be interesting to see exactly where the Surface Low is and where it starts. That will be huge in what 90L becomes!
You guys might not like it (and Levi might wish we would stop arranging his career), but I could envision him either with The Fleet Weather Center in San Diego or
The Naval Maritime Forecast Center in Pearl Harbor. Both support the JTWC.

More tropical activity in their purview, and better local weather, than NHC/Miami.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Invest 90L a possible threat to develop 7/26/11

Enjoy!

Thanks for the Texas love, CT. We definitely need some rain mojo.
2067. Patrap
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis





Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).
2068. Levi32
Quoting jeffs713:

for sure. beautiful country up in Boulder.

Has anyone seen updated model runs for steering of 90L? (ie: will the high move east enough at the right time to allow a weak-ish system to come ashore on the TX coast?)


BAM suite still thinks northern Mexico, but the few GFS ensemble members that develop it think Texas. It'll be a close call either way, probably not that far away from the border based on when that high is supposed to slip eastward. A trough digging into the Pacific northwest right now should push it far enough east to allow 90L to gain some latitude before coming ashore.

2069. Levi32
Quoting belizeit:
Levi have you ever been to the Tropics?


Nope. I would love to go sometime and experience the weather (namely thunderstorms). The only thing I dread is the heat.
Just woke up, seems that 90l is looking good this morning. I think there is a good chance it enters the gulf as a TD.
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's our hope! bring rain, but this needs to be watched, this one could spin up fast


Yeah but the models look pointed at you no where again...Mexico...this year is playing just like the last few this must be absolutely frustrating for Texas along with TC bring rain its the balance of the planet
Quoting Levi32:


BAM suite still thinks northern Mexico, but the few GFS ensemble members that develop it think Texas. It'll be a close call either way, probably not that far away from the border based on when that high is supposed to slip eastward. A trough digging into the Pacific northwest right now should push it far enough east to allow 90L to gain some latitude before coming ashore.


If it stays south is it more likely to develop? Less sheer?
I'm waiting for the GFDL and HWRF runs. I hope 90L will be strong enough to break through that shear. i could see its strong 30 knots from the east. What do you guys think about the vorticy max 850 by africa?
Quoting Levi32:


BAM suite still thinks northern Mexico, but the few GFS ensemble members that develop it think Texas. It'll be a close call either way, probably not that far away from the border based on when that high is supposed to slip eastward. A trough digging into the Pacific northwest right now should push it far enough east to allow 90L to gain some latitude before coming ashore.

I hadn't seen the ensemble members yet, thank you for adding that. The GFS has done decently well so far this year (at least locally with our rare rain events, and the tropical stuff so far in the ATL), so I'll put more faith (and desperate hope) in it for now.

Of course, at the moment, any model projections are barely better than a shot in the dark, since the models don't have a good grip on the center.
Quoting Levi32:


Nope. I would love to go sometime and experience the weather (namely thunderstorms). The only thing I dread is the heat.
I sometimes really miss the snow storms i only have seen one so far in my life and i'm 27 already .
AL, 90, 2011072612, 200N, 830W, 25, 1010, DB
I'm pretty sure Texans will take any TC at this point, even if it is a cane.
2078. Patrap
2079. Levi32
Quoting muddertracker:

If it stays south is it more likely to develop? Less sheer?


It doesn't appear here that track will make a huge amount of difference in its environmental conditions, but farther north may be slightly more favorable, as the system could slip a little bit more beneath the wings of the southern U.S. 200mb ridge, perhaps lightening the upper winds slightly.
Quoting Minnemike:
my tropical cyclone knowledge is fairly minimal in comparison to some here, so what are the factors against 90L, that seem to convince the NHC to 'low ball' it? is it just model guidance? it looks to me like it has a real potential to become trouble, or maybe that's just flare ups from all the TCHP it's over... seems to be organizing, gaining vorticity, and perhaps stalling a little.

good question! i would like to know this as well
2081. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve




2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
On the topic of drought/flood, we are getting close to 600% of normal rainfall for the last 2 weeks (with more expected).

In Texas, in the width of one county, they go from 300% of normal to 5% of normal, in places. Very green to totally brown in 30 minutes on the highway, I'd imagine.

Quoting MrstormX:
I'm pretty sure Texans will take any TC at this point, even if it is a cane.


Yes, and the Gulf coast which gets the majority of its rain a year from TCs and TWs has been void of anything the past few years....everything going into Mexico or elsewhere..i never seen anything like it before...surely not like it was when i was growing up i dont know whats going on
2084. Levi32
Presumably due to invest 90L, GOES-13 has gone into rapid-scan mode, and will now deliver 8 images per hour.

High-res Visible loop of 90L
Good to see we're working on the projected path and intensity of Levi's career.

j/k. Look forward to the day when we can all say we knew Levi (in and Internetty sort of way) when he was just an invest.

2086. Patrap
Updated: 4:05 am CDT on July 26, 2011
Flash Flood Watch in effect for New Orleans until 7 PM CDT this evening...


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2011


Discussion...
the main concern for this forecast package is the potential for
localized heavy rainfall again today and perhaps tomorrow and the
resulting flash flood threat. A middle level weak short wave trough
or weakness over the southeast Continental U.S. Will continue to plague the
Gulf Coast region for the next two or three days. This feature
..along with a tropical airmass in place across the region with
precipitable water values well in excess of two inches...will be
conducive for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Some areas have seen several
inches of rain over the past week or so...in some cases over
ten inches...and additional rainfall on saturated or nearly
saturated ground could result in flooding issues. As a result...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for today for the entire forecast
with a general one to two inches of rain possible...although
localized rainfall amounts of three to four inches will certainly be
possible in a few areas. This watch may have to be extended or
reissued for Wednesday as the threat for localized heavy rainfall
amounts will likely continue. Rain chances will begin to decrease
at the end of the week and especially over the weekend as the
short wave trough weakens and ridging aloft builds over the Gulf
region and somewhat drier air works into the area. A tropical wave
over the northwest Caribbean is forecast to move west across the
Gulf during the week. At this time it appears that this feature
will stay south of the coast and have minimal impact on the
forecast area. 11

Quoting Levi32:


Nope. I would love to go sometime and experience the weather (namely thunderstorms). The only thing I dread is the heat.
Levi you need to come to Barbados enjoy this lovely sunshine, a couple Banks Beers and you would be fine. you would not even remember the heat :)
2088. Levi32
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good to see we're working on the projected path and intensity of Levi's career.

j/k. Look forward to the day when we can all say we knew Levi (in and Internetty sort of way) when he was just an invest.



That got a laugh out of me lol.

Quoting Levi32:


It doesn't appear here that track will make a huge amount of difference in its environmental conditions, but farther north may be slightly more favorable, as the system could slip a little bit more beneath the wings of the southern U.S. 200mb ridge, perhaps lightening the upper winds slightly.

Levi what do you consider marginable shear? like 15 knots 20 knots 25 knots and you need to work for the NHC because you got some good knowledge my friend
2090. Patrap
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Yes, and the Gulf coast which gets the majority of its rain a year from TCs and TWs has been void of anything the past few years....everything going into Mexico or elsewhere..i never seen anything like it before...surely not like it was when i was growing up i dont know whats going on
I think that's a bit of a reach...

We might get 10 inches from an average local TC event and 35 inches for the year.

I wouldn't say that our current set up is due to a tropical wave or cyclone, but a number of places got 10 inches in the last 2 weeks and the whole area (SE LA), by eyeball averaging, about 5 inches.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 26 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR TIP OF YUCATAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 27/1530Z
D. 22.0N 87.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Quoting Levi32:


Nope. I would love to go sometime and experience the weather (namely thunderstorms). The only thing I dread is the heat.


People adapt. I went from the Panhandle of Florida to North Dakota (colder than Anchorage) and survived. First year was rough, but got acclimated to the point that when I visited here one winter I thought I was going to die in the 70 degree heat wave. Cold front then came through and I was in shorts in 50 degree weather. :)
Quoting atmoaggie:
On the topic of drought/flood, we are getting close to 600% of normal rainfall for the last 2 weeks (with more expected).

In Texas, in the width of one county, they go from 300% of normal to 5% of normal, in places. Very green to totally brown in 30 minutes on the highway, I'd imagine.


Actually.. its pretty close to that. My wife and I drove to NOLA and back, and as soon as you pass beltway 8 on I-10 going east out of houston, it starts getting more and more green. by the time you're solidly in Chambers county, its green all over.
Quoting Levi32:


That got a laugh out of me lol.



But now, you're what, a CAT V hurricane? LOL
2097. Patrap
POD wars?
Quoting barbados246:
Levi you need to come to Barbados enjoy this lovely sunshine, a couple Banks Beers and you would be fine. you would not even remember the heat :)
We had discussed the upper air obs from Barbados last week.

I found out that the hydrogen generator (for inflating the weather balloons, giving buoyancy) was not functioning. Supposedly will be fixed soon.
2099. ncstorm
Days 1-5 rain totals

2100. Levi32
Gotta head to work now. Later all.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I think that's a bit of a reach...

We might get 10 inches from a average local TC event and 35 inches for the year.

I wouldn't say that our current set up is due to a tropical wave or cyclone, but a number of places got 10 inches in the last 2 weeks and the whole area (SE LA), by eyeball averaging, about 5 inches.
I don't know anything about 10inches of rain here just north of the Woodlands. We are still begging for rain. Got about half an inch yesterday but the area is still in very bad shape. Houston is looking to Lake Conroe for water now.
There really isn't much going on at the surface with 90l...will that change soon?
2103. Patrap
Elvis has left da blog
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually.. its pretty close to that. My wife and I drove to NOLA and back, and as soon as you pass beltway 8 on I-10 going east out of houston, it starts getting more and more green. by the time you're solidly in Chambers county, its green all over.


Yea, I drove to Lake Charles and noticed the exact thing 2 weeks ago
Quoting muddertracker:
There really isn't much going on at the surface with 90l...will that change soon?


Was wondering the same thing.
2106. Patrap
I love rapid scan!
Thanks, Levi, for posting the link.
Link
Quoting Levi32:


Nope. I would love to go sometime and experience the weather (namely thunderstorms). The only thing I dread is the heat.
Levi, you should apply for a student travel stipend to attend the AMS annual meeting in January, 2012 in NOLA. (Honestly, really could be done, but might be limited to upperclassmen...that sounds familiar.)

You could come down here for free (hopefully). And we could arrange a cold front to come through (with thunderstorms) and then drop the temperature all the way down to 45 F (for a low).
;-)
Quoting muddertracker:
There really isn't much going on at the surface with 90l...will that change soon?
There is more going on than yesterday, that's for sure. There is SW inflow now for the first time, and low level clouds on the west side appear that they are starting to turn and become more northerly. These are indicative of a developing surface circulation. It's not there yet, but it's trying.
Patrap,
Do you have links to the latest models on that other wave behind 90L? The one that NGPS was picking up on when all the others dropped 90L a day or two ago?
Quoting katzanddogz:
I don't know anything about 10inches of rain here just north of the Woodlands. We are still begging for rain. Got about half an inch yesterday but the area is still in very bad shape. Houston is looking to Lake Conroe for water now.
Yeah, you guys are still missing out completely (well, almost completely). I do have a fan outside pointing NW...
(I am north of NOLA).
2112. Patrap
Models,,operational ones are only run on "Invest".

So the Global runs may show that but Im focused on 90L atm.

When and if that wave becomes a invest,Ill load the ATCF runs on it then.
Little ball of something going into South Texas.

Over the 12hours spanning the 3 most recently reported ATCF numbers, 90L averaged a steady travel-speed of 18mph(29k/h). Which is too high a fraction of its max.sus.wind of 25knots(46.3k/h) to allow a quick spin up.
However a significant part of the energy contained within its travel-speed could become translated into spin if 90L's movement were reduced suddenly in a ForcedConvergence.

Straightline projection of its travel-speed&heading averaged over the most recently reported 6hours
would take 90L to a 27July~2:30amGMT landfall between Cancun and Cozumel, then into the Gulf of Mexico before the next DiurnalMaximum.

Copy&paste 17.4n70.1w, 17.8n72.1w, 18.1n73.8w, 18.4n75.5w, 18.6n77.0w-18.9n78.5w, 18.9n78.5w-19.2n79.8w, 19.2n79.8w-19.6n81.4w, 19.6n81.4w-20.0n83.0w, cun, czm, gcm into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

That crossing over the northern tip of the YucatanPeninsula into a DiurnalMaximum over very warm waters sounds suspiciously like a 'ForcedConvergence then RapidIntensification' scenario to me.


2115. Patrap
Atlantic Big Pic, WV



Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, you guys are still missing out completely (well, almost completely). I do have a fan outside pointing NW...
(I am north of NOLA).
Thanks, keep it going! LOL If that La Nina comes back, I'm planting rocks!!
2117. HarryMc
Quoting MrstormX:
Little ball of something going into South Texas.



Think that would be whatever is left of 90L
Quoting TampaSpin:
I wonder why a Floater is not on 90L yet? Dang!
dixiebreeze use to have the phone number to call
the strongest vorticity appears to be on the 850 mb... is that good, bad, or ugly development wise
what a wimpy season so far.........trivia time... when was the last time a storm formed in the carribean and tracked north into the gulf instead of into mexico like they always do??
Quoting muddertracker:
It's a start...it just has to work it's way down to the surface...what does the 700mb show?


about the same 500 gets more ragid and its hardly there at best on the200
Quoting weatherh98:
the strongest vorticity appears to be on the 850 mb... is that good, bad, or ugly development wise

850 mb? maybe ugly development?
Quoting weatherh98:
the strongest vorticity appears to be on the 850 mb... is that good, bad, or ugly development wise
That's good for 90L. That means it's not mainly a mid level feature, but instead the vorticity is starting to work its way towards the surface. As the surface circulation forms and 90L develops (if it does) vorticity will work its way up to the mid levels as 90L strengthens.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
what a wimpy season so far.........trivia time... when was the last time a storm formed in the carribean and tracked north into the gulf instead of into mexico like they always do??


Methinks Gustav
Quoting weatherh98:
the strongest vorticity appears to be on the 850 mb... is that good, bad, or ugly development wise

Circulation is getting lower.

stronger sign of development.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That's good for 90L. That means it's not mainly a mid level feature, but instead the vorticity is starting to work its way towards the surface. As the surface circulation forms and 90L develops (if it does) vorticity will work its way up to the mid levels as 90L strengthens.


when do we know thatits low level circulation on the vorticity
Quoting EasttexasAggie:


Circulation is getting lower.

stronger sign of development.


Pressures at closest buoys are rising
LLC could be forming north of 20N
This 90L is a fun system to watch. I would love for this to become a TC in the gulf just to see the models eat crow. If it does not then I will put a little more faith in them.
Quoting farupnorth:


Pressures at closest buoys are rising

They were with bret at first too. Things can change quickly.
Quoting MrstormX:


Methinks Gustav


Crap I meant Ida.
Quoting weatherh98:


when do we know thatits low level circulation on the vorticity
I'm not sure what you're asking exactly, but we know when it has a low-level circulation through a variety of possible methods. Recon is easiest way, or surface obs, and even convincing satellite imagery or an ASCAT pass. Vorticity does not necessarily mean a closed circulation, but generally the stronger it is, the greater the chances.
GFS and NAM shows that 90L move moves very very slowly to NE and ENE, make that one itsy bitsy tiny dot. Hmm.....
Quoting farupnorth:


Pressures at closest buoys are rising
Diurnal cycles. Not too impressive nonetheless.
We should see the NHC bump chances to a MEDIUM 30-40% chance at 2 p.m.
Quoting Vincent4989:
GFS and NAM shows that 90L move moves very very slowly to NE and ENE, make that one itsy bitsy tiny dot. Hmm.....


Say again...NE???
Oops.
;-)
WPAC is active, and Nock-Ten will pass DIRECTLY OVER US here.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Say again...NE???


The compass is reversed this morning
Quoting Vincent4989:
WPAC is active, and Nock-Ten will pass DIRECTLY OVER US here.
That looks like, primarily, a flood threat if I ever saw one.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Say again...NE???

North-east and East-northeast
Quoting Vincent4989:

North-east and East-northeast


LOL
Quoting Vincent4989:

North-east and East-northeast
Umm, examine the directions one more time...
;-)
Good morning everyone.

Quoting Vincent4989:

North-east and East-northeast

I'm Sure u mean NW to WNW
Quoting RitaEvac:
LLC could be forming north of 20N


Yeah..I see that..sort of on the north east side of the main ball of convection?

LSU low cloud product:
Link
Ull strengthening of east coast of FL
Is there a reason why I can't open some of the posts in order to read them?
2151. Patrap
Yesterday:



Today:



And this isn't even a 24 hour difference. Much better organized.
Wrong quote, sorry
The National Hurricane Center went conservative with the 8AM TWO. I'd give it 30% because ever since yesterday evening, convection has sustained itself right over 90L's MLC. With all that heat piling up, something will work down to the surface. If 90L clips the Yucatan peninsula, well, that's even better for 90L. The friction created would allow an LLC to get going if it didn't already have one.

Quoting Levi32:


Nope. I would love to go sometime and experience the weather (namely thunderstorms). The only thing I dread is the heat.
December or January would be the time for you to visit if you come... I know I find it strange to be colder in July and August when visiting WY, CO, or MT than I have ever been at home in the winter... I'm the only person walking through town in a coat, while everybody else is in short sleeves or bare-backed....
It is unbelievably frustrating and disappointing for Texans to see Tampico get every single storm.. surprised Tampico hasn't been entirely washed away.

We need to print up brochures, with Erin and Hermine etc on the cover touting the tourist opportunities and have the HH drop them into blobs that say land here.. see the whole country in two weeks, maybe even Nova Scotia!
Quoting muddertracker:


Yeah..I see that..sort of on the north east side of the main ball of convection?

LSU low cloud product:
Link


Yes
Everning all.
90L is back and looking good. Tx/Mx, you might be in for a Hurricane in a few days.


Also in the WPAC, the Philippines is getting hammered from TS Nock-Ten. It will track right over Metro Manila. The worst case scenario. Nock-Ten is intensifying and will being massive amounts of rainfall. I would no be surprised if there was lose of life and Heavy flooding.

Nock-Ten
2159. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Have to...

for the experts...what influence will the ULL of the Fla. east coast and the front sagging into the southeast have on 90L/Don?
2162. Mikla
Cuba radar shows some circulation:
Link
2163. hydrus
<
Quoting SCwannabe:
for the experts...what influence will the ULL of the Fla. east coast and the front sagging into the southeast have on 90L/Don?


Maybe a more NW componet
I am getting kinda conserned here but not that much.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe a more NW componet
is 90l going to texas
2167. Squid28
While I really don't want a cane, a nice soaker blob or minimal TS would be welcome at my place on the upper Texas coast. According to my personal weather station I am sitting at -25.85 inches of life giving H2O for the year at my place (Shoreacres, TX).
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Yesterday:



Today:



And this isn't even a 24 hour difference. Much better organized.


that was a pretty telling comparison.
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be all that favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.
2171. ncstorm
12Z NAM

South Texas with 90L (1008 mb) and another 1008 and 1012 mb off of puerto rico..two lows?

Link
Morning all.

That trough - the one anchored by the ULL N of the Bahamas and E of FL - has been drifting west in front of 90L since it got in the CAR... wondering how much of 90L's formation problems are down to its presence and location in relation to the Twave...
Don't blame Vincent4989 for where the NAM dot and the GFS dot are located.
Sheesh, at least look at the map he provided in 2135 before trying for "clever".
most intensity models have it a 60-65 mph storm
Quoting atmoaggie:
Have to...



LOL!!

Just couldn't resist!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.


I have heard that statement before when systems get into the GOMEX and most always it does the opposite.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
most intensity models have it a 60-65 mph storm


If it gets that high, I'm not 14.

And I'm 14.
the mood on here is a lot different than the mood last night. most on here last night were saying that 90l was dead and those who thought different were just bored and wanted to watch something. i am no met but i knew yesterday that this wave looked better than it did the day before. i got on in the morning and all the people on then called it. i got back on at night and asked why was everyone thinking that it was dead when it clearly looked way better than before and the answer i got was some people stare at things until they see something. but my hats off to you daytime people. you all seem to get it right more then the mets. do. i come here for updates. they are more accurate here than on any news or t.v. weather source. just wanna say thanks for keeping people like me informed:)
Geez, it's even my birthday.
Quoting aspectre:
Don't blame Vincent4989 for where the NAM dot and the GFS dot are located.
Sheesh, at least look at the map he provided before trying for "clever".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be all that favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.

But how about bath water temps to feed on, could that make a difference?
2182. bwi
Winds have been pretty light overnight and this morning at Grand Cayman. Have had a bit of a southerly component until recently, which would make sense as the main disturbance passed by to the north and west.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


If it gets that high, I'm not 14.

And I'm 14.

im showing you that it could be right for not being a hurricane exception of the ships
Anything goes once it gets in Gulf...how many times have we seen storms explode in the gulf...too many
Here's a 12 hour comparison. So what do you think, is there a Bush still in the White House?

This thing is a skater with a rink twice the size of Texas.


When will Angela post her new blog?
2187. ncstorm


Has anyone noticed that where the NHC puts a circle on their map that there is never any blue on this map where the circle is?
Quoting ncstorm:

well, then...that settles that...lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A hurricane at this point can pretty much be ruled out...Upper level conditions will not be all that favorable in the Gulf of Mexico.



Hum..........NOT SURE YET?

2190. wpb
capital hill has the country a in a

tropical depression
Anyone seeing any models shifting north to TX/LA border? Looked to me like CMC, GFS and NGP shifted northward - or am I misinterpreting the models?
Where's 90L's center of circulation? to the clouds on the left side or the gap between the left and right clouds?
Quoting AussieStorm:

But how about bath water temps to feed on, could that make a difference?


The water temperatures are useless if there are upper level problems.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Hum..........NOT SURE YET?



Upper level trough...



That will create higher wind shear. Not to mention, easterly shear from the death ridge will also result in shear. That animation you posted doesn't seem too accurate.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The water temperatures are useless if there are upper level problems.


Tropical weather 101.... Always expect the unexpected
Quoting Vincent4989:
When will Angela post her new blog?


Later on today...She is going off of PDT, so it is only 8:40 AM there. If she even makes one, today...
Quoting TampaSpin:


are conditions favorable for a more northward shift? Looks like you were on the money the other nite Tampa! Great Job!
Lots of thunderstorm activity...convection piling up off the NC/SC coast the next 24 hours...any thoughts? Kind of similar to Bret
2200. Patrap
AL, 90, 2011072612, 20.0N, 83.0W, 25, 1010, DB
invest 90L looking better this morning
2202. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Upper level trough...



That will create higher wind shear. Not to mention, easterly shear from the death ridge will also result in shear. That animation you posted doesn't seem too accurate.

This morning Levi said that if 90l can produce enough heat, it can possibly (possibly) split trough...possibly?
Quoting ncstorm:


Has anyone noticed that where the NHC puts a circle on their map that there is never any blue on this map where the circle is?

Epic
Fail
2205. Walshy
Quoting mynameispaul:
Anyone seeing any models shifting north to TX/LA border? Looked to me like CMC, GFS and NGP shifted northward - or am I misinterpreting the models?


Until the storm forms models may be off.
Quoting muddertracker:

This morning Levi said that if 90l can produce enough heat, it can possibly (possibly) split trough...possibly?


True, but then it still has the death ridge to deal with.
2207. Patrap
2208. ncstorm
Quoting SCwannabe:
Lots of thunderstorm activity...convection piling up off the NC/SC coast the next 24 hours...any thoughts? Kind of similar to Bret


I posted this morning and last night about the HPC having a low off our coast by the week end..we may see development there before 90L..
Quoting Patrap:


I think I see the beginning of a 'comma' shape.
Quoting ncstorm:


I posted this morning and last night about the HPC having a low off our coast by the week end..we may see development there before 90L..


90L will be making landfall in that time period.
2211. Patrap
Quoting Walshy:


Until the storm forms models may be off.



The Models are tools to aid in forecasting,, the envelope and CoC are well known,,so the Models are not "off"..they use what is Known to factor out a solution downstream in time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


True, but then it still has the death ridge to deal with.
Yep. I get that. Just pulling for some rain in central texas.
Quoting weatherganny:


are conditions favorable for a more northward shift? Looks like you were on the money the other nite Tampa! Great Job!


The Ridge is pretty much gonna hold for a weak system and keep it to a Tx/Mexico system. This will be one tho, that the stronger it gets the more Northerly it will for sure go.
2215. Patrap
NHC Model Overview

Introduction

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics. Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.

As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.
Quoting TampaSpin:


The Ridge is pretty much gonna hold for a weak system and keep it to a Tx/Mexico system. This will be one tho, that the stronger it gets the more Northerly it will for sure go.


You have that backwards. The weaker the system, the farther north it will go. The stronger the system, the farther south it will go.

Right?
Quoting Levi32:
High-res Visible Loop of 90L


Looks like a LLC trying to fire SE of Isle of Youth? Boomers seem to be forming in a very tight circulation?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You have that backwards. The weaker the system, the farther north it will go. The stronger the system, the farther south it will go.


Wrong
Quoting wpb:
capital hill has the country a in a

tropical depression

That reminds me of a great Alan Jackson song...

I'm in a tropical depression
I've got the blue water blues
Can't shake this loving you obsession
Can't stand this sand in my shoes
This forgetting you vacation
Is just a fool's holiday
If I can't get over you
This tropical depression is gonna
Blow me away
2220. tkeith
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
invest 90L looking better this morning
lol...nice touch with the shower curtain Jason :)
wow!! here the new tropical wave to watch.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You have that backwards. The weaker the system, the farther north it will go. The stronger the system, the farther south it will go.

Right?


NO, i think i got it correct. The Stronger Storm will feel the trough more.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for the update, Ms. Angela. It's good to see a fresh face on here from time to time, no offense to Dr. M, BTW, LOL, =).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You have that backwards. The weaker the system, the farther north it will go. The stronger the system, the farther south it will go.


I believe you have this backwards... a weak system does not turn northward as easily... a ridge is weaker in the upper atmosphere allowing a stronger system to turn northward faster.... the stronger the system the more likely it is to turn northward
Gotta run! NO FIGHTING TODAY KIDS! Will see you all later tonite!
Link

I think COC of 90L has moved a little to WSW looking at this loop.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=22.97999 954&lon=-82.40000153&zoom=8&pin=Havana%2c%20Cuba&t ype=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&saLinkt=1&sat.num=1&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109& sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=VIS&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0
Slow steady progress, but not shaping up to be Don the Destroyer...it's all good.

Just....bring....me....agua......
great he's back...its ! time :)
First large band has formed on the right hand side.

If you look closely at the motion picture, it can't wait, it's already sucking in part of that right arm, midway into the wrap around, which suggests it is deepening rapidly, to me.

Watch for the hand off from the right arm to the center.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You have that backwards. The weaker the system, the farther north it will go. The stronger the system, the farther south it will go.

Right?

Stronger storms grow taller in the atmosphere and begin to "feel" the effects of steering currents in higher levels in the atmosphere, which generally tend to bring the systems farther north. For example, a strong TS or hurricane coming across the Atlantic would easily be scooped up by a shortwave pushing off the East coast; however, a weak TS or a TD lacking a strong CDO might undercut the trough and continue pushing westbound by steering currents in the lower levels of the atmosphere. That's one of the many reasons why it is so difficult forecasting the track of weak systems.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I believe you have this backwards... a weak system does not turn northward as easily... a ridge is weaker in the upper atmosphere allowing a stronger system to turn northward faster.... the stronger the system the more likely it is to turn northward

This ridge is more upper-level, so that pushes stronger storms more towards MX. A weaker storm will not feel the ridge as much, letting it curve north.

There isn't a trough to speak of that can impact steering significantly, so the ridge is the biggest player right now.
weaker systems track more westerly. that why tropical waves generally move westward.

when a storm gets stronger, it try's to find any weakness so it can turn towards the north.
i see the center on this tropical wave!!
Stronger storm is more likely to feel a northern weakness, stronger systems have a more polar influence naturally. That's why we often see storms like Igor go out to sea and weak storms like Gaston head west.
2237. ncstorm
HPC Extended Discussion

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE/BRAVO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT DUE TO
INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT ON SUNDAY. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
SOUTHWEST OF CUBA.



Quoting Walshy:


Until the storm forms models may be off.


Thanks, I was just curious if anyone else saw that. Just checked and the CMC shifted back towards Corpus area. I know these models jump around all the time. Was just curious if anyone had any thoughts on it. Thanks.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Stronger storm is more likely to feel a northern weakness, stronger systems have a more polar influence naturally. That's why we often see storms like Igor go out to sea and weak storms like Gaston head west.

Part of the reasons we have hurricanes to begin with is to take heat and moisture from the tropics and move it poleward. That's really all it boils down to in the grand scheme of things.
Where does the NHC have the center at?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Stronger storm is more likely to feel a northern weakness, stronger systems have a more polar influence naturally. That's why we often see storms like Igor go out to sea and weak storms like Gaston head west.
"The beta effect on a TC can be a function of the TC size, but not necessarily the TC intensity (DeMaria, 1985). "

Here, section 1.2: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap4/se100.htm

(Which is partly why Allen-1980, Dean, Felix, etc. never did the polar movement thing).
Quoting ChupaCabra2011:
Good Lord, you know that the tropics are dead today when you guys are devoting heart and soul to a pulp of clouds, south of the Isle of Youth, GEEZE. Also, I see that the Texas wish-casters are out in full force today, a sad turn of events on the blog today, indeed. Let em check out the long term models to see whether any of them forecast anything to form by early August.
Quoting ChupaCabra2011:
Good Lord, you know that the tropics are dead today when you guys are devoting heart and soul to a pulp of clouds, south of the Isle of Youth, GEEZE. Also, I see that the Texas wish-casters are out in full force today, a sad turn of events on the blog today, indeed. Let em check out the long term models to see whether any of them forecast anything to form by early August.

Texas desperately needs any rain it can possibly get.
Also, due to the cyclonic nature of intense storms, they tend to pull poleward unless dictated otherwise by steering.
2246. 7544
has 90l stalled and if it stays there another 24 hours could the sterring change and have go thru thru the yucatan then wind up inthe gom
2247. Patrap
The NHC dosent post Invest's center fixes,..

They begin fixes when a Depression is declared.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Later on today...She is going off of PDT, so it is only 8:40 AM there. If she even makes one, today...
She probably will. There's enough interesting stuff going on in the tropics to make it worth the while... not to mention the 2200+ posts in the blog so far...

see a spin here!!
2250. FLdewey
So... lunchtime check of Severe Thunderstorm Don
2251. Patrap
AL, 90, 2011072612, 20.0N, 83.0W, 25, 1010, DB
I say TS Don by 11pm....
TropicalAnalystwx13 "If it gets that high, I'm not 14. And I'm 14."

But not for long. And with the passing of each year, that not for long gets shorter.
Quoting ChupaCabra2011:


First time poster (not really) who comes in and right away is sarcastically criticizing others. A well deserved.
2241 & 2253:

You're sure a voice of expertise since you just joined yesterday. Have you noticed how bad of a drought TX is in?

Stop trolling, it is rather pointless.

As quakeman55 said, most of TX will take any and all rain we can get.
2257. Patrap
Updated: 4:05 am CDT on July 26, 2011
Flash Flood Watch in effect for New Orleans until 7 PM CDT this evening...


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2011


Discussion...
the main concern for this forecast package is the potential for
localized heavy rainfall again today and perhaps tomorrow and the
resulting flash flood threat. A middle level weak short wave trough
or weakness over the southeast Continental U.S. Will continue to plague the
Gulf Coast region for the next two or three days. This feature
..along with a tropical airmass in place across the region with
precipitable water values well in excess of two inches...will be
conducive for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Some areas have seen several
inches of rain over the past week or so...in some cases over
ten inches...and additional rainfall on saturated or nearly
saturated ground could result in flooding issues. As a result...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for today for the entire forecast
with a general one to two inches of rain possible...although
localized rainfall amounts of three to four inches will certainly be
possible in a few areas. This watch may have to be extended or
reissued for Wednesday as the threat for localized heavy rainfall
amounts will likely continue. Rain chances will begin to decrease
at the end of the week and especially over the weekend as the
short wave trough weakens and ridging aloft builds over the Gulf
region and somewhat drier air works into the area. A tropical wave
over the northwest Caribbean is forecast to move west across the
Gulf during the week. At this time it appears that this feature
will stay south of the coast and have minimal impact on the
forecast area. 11

Quoting SCwannabe:
I say TS Don by 11pm....

What day?
Quoting PcolaDan:


First time poster (not really) who comes in and right away is sarcastically criticizing others. A well deserved.


Thankyou!
Quoting PcolaDan:


First time poster (not really) who comes in and right away is sarcastically criticizing others. A well deserved.


"not really" lol..good catch!
Poll time.

Q: What will the NHC give Invest 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher

Quoting quakeman55:

What day?


Tonight...IMO...LOL
2263. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Stronger storm is more likely to feel a northern weakness, stronger systems have a more polar influence naturally. That's why we often see storms like Igor go out to sea and weak storms like Gaston head west.


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.
2266. FLdewey
Quoting quakeman55:

What day?

LOL... true dat
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.


Exactly. Not all storms are the same. Thats why CLIP and CLP5 aren't exactly the best models...
2268. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve




2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Quoting ChupaCabra2011:


So does the rest of the Southeast.

Maybe so, but Texas is in a much worse state than other parts of the SE, which has seen at least some rain that has helped ease the drought there a bit. However, most of TX and much of OK and NM have not seen a drop in weeks.

US Drought Monitor, in case you haven't seen it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time.

Q: What will the NHC give Invest 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher



0 percent, it'll never amount up to much.
To all:

Instead of replying or quoting to the troll, please just provide him with the response of
2273. Patrap
..I never Poll on a Tues as a rule
Quoting Patrap:
..I never Poll on a Tues as a rule

I never poll on days that end in Y.
2276. Patrap
Quoting jeffs713:
To all:

Instead of replying or quoting to the troll, please just provide him with the response of


Or maybe just the JFV post # will do,,one dosent have to quote idiocy,, as its just "quoting idiocy".

Thanx
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.


What you said.
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.

not true.

here is the steering map for <940 mbs. you can see a big break in the ridge and it would try to shot that gap and head towards FL.

Note how the northern component on the right hand side is accelerating in the last few frames. The rotation we can see now, is about to double in size.

This is no longer a wave, but a skater that has landed on some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic Basin.

Quoting jeffs713:
To all:

Instead of replying or quoting to the troll, please just provide him with the response of

+100
2281. jonelu
Quoting Squid28:
While I really don't want a cane, a nice soaker blob or minimal TS would be welcome at my place on the upper Texas coast. According to my personal weather station I am sitting at -25.85 inches of life giving H2O for the year at my place (Shoreacres, TX).


Its looking like there is a reasonably good chance you are going to get exactly what you need.
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Note how the northern component on the right hand side is accelerating in the last few frames. The rotation we can see now, is about to double in size.

This is no longer a wave, but a skater that has landed on some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic Basin.



I'm with U
2284. beell
Quoting Cantu5977:


Looking at the forecast steering charts this is not the case with 90L, the stronger she gets the more likely she bends west.


Ditto.




Quoting Patrap:
Updated: 4:05 am CDT on July 26, 2011
Flash Flood Watch in effect for New Orleans until 7 PM CDT this evening...


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
332 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2011


Discussion...
the main concern for this forecast package is the potential for
localized heavy rainfall again today and perhaps tomorrow and the
resulting flash flood threat. A middle level weak short wave trough
or weakness over the southeast Continental U.S. Will continue to plague the
Gulf Coast region for the next two or three days. This feature
..along with a tropical airmass in place across the region with
precipitable water values well in excess of two inches...will be
conducive for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall amounts. Some areas have seen several
inches of rain over the past week or so...in some cases over
ten inches...and additional rainfall on saturated or nearly
saturated ground could result in flooding issues. As a result...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for today for the entire forecast
with a general one to two inches of rain possible...although
localized rainfall amounts of three to four inches will certainly be
possible in a few areas. This watch may have to be extended or
reissued for Wednesday as the threat for localized heavy rainfall
amounts will likely continue. Rain chances will begin to decrease
at the end of the week and especially over the weekend as the
short wave trough weakens and ridging aloft builds over the Gulf
region and somewhat drier air works into the area. A tropical wave
over the northwest Caribbean is forecast to move west across the
Gulf during the week. At this time it appears that this feature
will stay south of the coast and have minimal impact on the
forecast area. 11



Well; guess it's time to break out the floaties
and the hipboots


Shear is good where it is 5 knots and should be favorable in the yucatan channel but there is that big high shoving eastward 30 knot shear up north. by the way a trough is going to weaken the ridge a little for 90L to gain some latitude before being shoved back wnw. i think its a 70% chance for texas 30% for mexico. if the system is strong, it will break trough tha trough and there will be an upper high in the central gulf allowing for it to develop but if it cant its going to be sheared 20 to 30 knots
2287. 7544
Quoting chevycanes:

not true.

here is the steering map for <940 mbs. you can see a big break in the ridge and it would try to shot that gap and head towards FL.



thats what i was thinking cant get too far north if it does go thru or close to the yucatan the high in the gulf could turn ne just asking thanks
Quoting chevycanes:

not true.

here is the steering map for <940 mbs. you can see a big break in the ridge and it would try to shot that gap and head towards FL.



We're not talking about a major hurricane though. We are talking about the difference between lets say a TS and a Category 1 hurricane.





Notice how the second one, which would be the steering for a weak hurricane, takes a more westerly (southerly) path than a TS would.
That'll start changing soon enough, especially as fall approaches.
A and C are the same
Quoting atmoaggie:
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )


Some? LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time.

Q: What will the NHC give Invest 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher


30%
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
A and C are the same
No $#!* ? Thanks!
Quoting mynameispaul:


Thanks, I was just curious if anyone else saw that. Just checked and the CMC shifted back towards Corpus area. I know these models jump around all the time. Was just curious if anyone had any thoughts on it. Thanks.


GFS did as well. This storm will be steered by high pressure and the orientation of. Looks to be that a pretty hefty shortwave develops in the central plains and erodes the western section of the continental high enough to change the orientation more to the NW instead of straight west. You can see 90L turn west in the GOM after being pulled Nward a bit by the weakness over FLA. Then as the Cent Plains trough passes by you can see 90L take on a more NW motion.

2296. FLdewey
Quoting atmoaggie:
No $#!* ? Thanks!


AAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahaha!!!

Winning!
Quoting atmoaggie:
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )


G. Polls and responses are an efficient way to see what other members think of the situation.
#2282...atmo.....this is the first poll that I've ever responded to, and probably the last. I'll go with F.
NEW BLOG!!!
90L looking better. Land is no longer doing it much harm.


Also, there could be a possible severe weather outbreak today.
2303. hcubed
Quoting atmoaggie:
My turn for a poll.

Select the poll-related statement most reflective of reality in the blog:

A. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
B. Polls are for those that feel the need to reaffirm that they have any idea what they are talking about by posting and/or participating in a poll.
C. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
D. Polls in this blog, when responded to are a sub-sample of all of us, but only represent those of us that are willing to participate in a poll, thus any tallied results are rather meaningless.
E. Polls and responses are a complete waste of blog space and have no utility whatsoever.
F. All of the above.

(Sry, some sarc in there ;-) )


I'll say A, C and E for my choices.

And that's because it's you.

Normally, my answer to a poll is the "!" key...
Quoting Ameister12:
90L looking better. Land is no longer doing it much harm.


Also, there could be a possible severe weather outbreak today.

Looked like there was another tornado warning for Springfield MA, but didn't really get to look at the velocitys. Out hiking and just keeping tabs on the storms on my phone
If I get banned Im sorry but I just had to blast the troll!!
Quoting muddertracker:


"not really" lol..good catch!



what the hell? I did NOT JUST POST THIS...What is going on? HELP ADMIN!!!! TAZ?