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A Halloween hurricane?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:11 PM GMT on October 27, 2007

A surface low pressure system (90L), near 16N 71W, about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border, is moving west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the east of the low's center of circulation, but these thunderstorms have gotten more organized in the past few hours, and a more circular center has developed. Wind shear has fallen to 20-25 knots this afternoon, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite rainfall estimate of 90L.

The system will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico through Sunday night. Heavy rains of up to 6 inches have already fallen in southeast Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1). Heavy rains will also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday and Monday, and are likely to trigger life-threatening flash floods in Haiti.

This morning's 12Z (8am EDT) computer model forecasts have made a major change: the three major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that 90L will intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL and HWRF predict 90L will move northwesterly across Haiti and western Cuba, and into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing 90L northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as 90L has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict 90L will track along the length of Cuba early next week, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify 90L into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should 90L track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which predict a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, are the most reasonable ones. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Those that don't like others oponions should state their own without personal attacks against others.
what would be the proper name for spin at aprox 32n50w? A swirly?
Oh now Im a wishcasting becasue I dont agree with you Cantorie? Ok well then I guess your a fishcaster and Im reporting you for using wishcaster as the blog admin said it was not to be used in that way.
Even drak said he didnt believe the GFDL was right...is he a wishcaster too Cantorie?
500. TayTay 10:24 PM AST on October 27, 2007 Hide this comment.
Something big in the Arabian Sea.


u mean the blob on the right
But then again Eye...you seem to be a "Down Caster", just trying to rile up the crowd.
No, in the Arabian. Not sure if it's been named or is even officially a TC. I know the IMD sucks and usually ignores storms in the Arabian.
Ok Cantorie but if the NHC doesnt agree with you will they be wishcasters too?
cantore are you starting to label people get back to tropics
Has any one seen the 1030 two?
It looks like several of you will soon get 24 hr bans

The minute a TD shows up so does the squabbling. Chill out folks
hi everyone i see ae got our big red ball as i said it would be this am . but just got in i notice the model page has

strom 90

storm 16

now they both show differnt tracks are there 2 differnt system we are watching or just one . thanks alittle confused
No TWO issued yet...they wont issue it until TD 16 shows up on their site
TayTay

Ok...its been designated 05A by the JTWC.
Ok Cantorie but if the NHC doesn agree with you will they be wishcasters too?

You are the wish caster on here son.
I'm 64.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 280230
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




I don't think anyone has ever seen me make a prediction on anything. If that makes me a wishcaster then im not sure were that puts anyone who names himself Cantoriesnumber1fan...lol
Please...only one posting of the NHC Discussion and Outlook. Designate someone if you must.
Looks like some warnings are in effect
And you know Cantorie I never said the models and you were wrong, I just said the models arent always right. So dont see how that makes me a wishcaster but whatever I dont care
And I am entitled to my opinion as well Cantorie, doesnt make we a wishcaster or whatever-else caster but lets just get back to the tropics
520. TampaSpin 2:31 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
I don't think anyone has ever seen me make
I THINK THEY CALL THAT A MAN CRUSH LOL
Has the IMD officially designated it? IMD usually takes its sweet time before they do.
IMD is not ignoring it.. it marked this morning that the Arabian Sea system was likely to form into a depression.
As far as I know the IMD hasnt designated it yet
i see the bad moon a rising i see trouble on the way,i see hurricanes and lighing i see the rain is coming soon dont go out tonight its bound to take yer life theres ah bad moon on the rise.
lol.
no track from the nhc yet
Hey y'all! I haven't been around to comment much lately. What's new?
lol coast
good evening everyone! i see we have td#16 and is looking impressive on satellite imagery,do you guys think this system will take and ernesto type track? because if that is the case south florida will probably have a real scary hallowen.
well its 8:00am IST usually the advisory comes out between 8:30am IST.
I'd be careful about throwing around labels there, cantories...nothing stopping anyone from throwing you in a troll category or something far worse. Can't we all just get along....
TD 16

South Florida is in the cone so they need to be alert, however they do appear a little safer than before
OK, according to the WU 5 day outlook, and models... Florida is out of the picture! it will go EAST of us.. (roflmao!)

so where is the real discussion as to where this system is going.. is it going East of Florida and if so,..I LOVE YOU!!! that is what I want to hear...

let me know... I will be lurking....
Wow, I really can not believe the forecast track. How can a system make such a turn like that? I know tracking this system is going to be tricky, I just cant see that track materilizing and by monday im sure the track will look 200% different from now.
We now have Td16,huh?This needs to be watched carefully in Florida.
Fla. looks okay for now...but have to keep an eye on it for the next few days.
Pulled away by the front?
the NHC is forecasting 16L to be just under cane strength at 70mph wind
539. extreme236 2:38 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
South Florida is in the cone so they need to be alert, however they do appear a little safer than before
Action: | Ignore User

This track is un heard of lol. I will wait for a few days im sure the track will change ALOT.
16L has really been firing the convection lately. It can be really interesting to watch these late-season storms because they will often have tons of convection with them. Mitch of '98, Michelle of '01, and Wilma of '05 are a few examples late season storms with lots of convection. Hopefully 16L won't turn into one of those storms!
By the looks of the NHC windfield forecast they just took the middle of the model forecasts. It shows a run through central Cuba and to the Bahamas.
528. HadesGodWyvern 10:36 PM AST on October 27, 2007 Hide this comment.
IMD is not ignoring it.. it marked this morning that the Arabian Sea system was likely to form into a depression.


Thanks for clearing that up.
OH NO!!! The cone of DOOM! Maybe I should ask the Great Pumpkin what he thinks about future Noel. I'm sure no Christmas cheer is in store!
BTW, thanks to everyone for your viewpoints. I, for one, find the debate lively and sparked:)
Tropical Depression 95W



Poor Philippines getting hammered by rain.
just heard on local news the front will be a weak one and may not turn td 16 that sharply timing will be everyting here so so / fla stay alert
and it looks like the NHC agrees with the SHIPS on 16L becoming a TS in 12 hours
555. 786
How many of you bloggers online think that this will be a threat to the Cayman Islands as a hurricane??? do not have too long online would be very grateful for your opinions.
553. stormybil 2:43 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
just heard on local news the front will be a weak one and may not turn td 16 that sharply timing will be everyting here so so / fla stay alert


As far as im concerned the WHOLE Florida pennisula must stay alert.
I'm not surprise with the track...to me it makes perfect sense. But the storm will deviate as time goes on. TD 16 simply is attracted to the weakness of the front and will be steered by the return flow around the high.

See u guys in the morning.
Well folks im off to bed. I just do not see that sharp of a turn.....but time will tell, Im off to bed G'Night all!
Insanity:



No explanation needed
yes cane you are correct sorry about that trying to do some catching up here lol
561. 786
...would be very grateful for your respectful opinions
there is currently an interesting program at discovery channel about chasing tornadoes,if some one is interested.
563. 0741
i have update my blog at Link
To my brothers and sisters in South FL, tomorrow might not be a bad time to put off a little of that yard pickup and trimming you've been putting off. Wouldn't hurt. Did mine today, not even realizing this tonight. I think it's going to do a Wilma-ish type senario with the front next Thurs/Fri. Just a possible scenario.
Stormchasers.....good program
786 if it does, keep an eye on hurricanecrab's blog- he's on Brac.
Which model is that STL? Is it the CMC?
541. CaneAddict 9:39 PM CDT on October 27, 2007
Wow, I really can not believe the forecast track. How can a system make such a turn like that?


Easy; many storms at this time of the year have made turns like that (most recently, a storm that hit Florida about two years ago). That is also the typical path for October and November storms:



ill be watching for noel at dmax tonight this should be a ts fast
LOOKS like "chicken little" (cmc)
Good point STL.I think the worst case scenario for Florida would be an event like 1999's Irene.
Still waiting on that NHC discussion....
Aquak,
crab has a blog going on this????

Will make a swing by Crab's blog then go to bed and expect to see that East of Florida forcase taking place tomorrow! LOL
574. jtn
This track is un heard of lol. I will wait for a few days im sure the track will change ALOT

what are you talking about??
Storms can make hairpin turns at a moments notice...Nothing to be surprised about.
This track is un heard of lol. I will wait for a few days im sure the track will change ALOT

Track is definitely not unheard of. Will it change? Probably so. But it's still very common for systems to do this in October and November, as STL said.
572. weatherboykris 10:52 PM EDT on October 27, 2007
Still waiting on that NHC discussion....

Me too..
the NHC must be making a long discussion
Long before it threatens Cuba or the US it will likely inflict severe damage on Haiti in the form of flash floods and mud slides.

The enormous rain shield on the right side of the system will overrun Haiti as the system moves to the NW and if it is a slow mover there could be significant loss of life once more.

Td 16 does not need to even intensify from its current state to do that. This is another disaster in the making for those people
580. jtn
Track is definitely not unheard of.

quite common as a matter of fact
if td16 does go over cuba and breaks down alittle could it rapidly resternthen in the fla striaght or will shear be to high thanks
no, crab does not have a blog going on this, gamma, but you know if he's gonna be affected, folks will stop by and some folks will post updates.
the NHC must be making a long discussion

They did for this Gabrielle. Just give it time.

Long before it threatens Cuba or the US it will likely inflict severe damage on Haiti in the form of flash floods and mud slides.

The enormous rain shield on the right side of the system will overrun Haiti as the system moves to the NW and if it is a slow mover there could be significant loss of life once more.

Td 16 does not need to even intensify from its current state to do that. This is another disaster in the making for those people


Indeed. I feel bad for those people. They were just flooded very recently, and now they have TD/16 Noel to worry about. I get the feeling that if Noel DOES cause a lot of deaths in Haiti, it will be retired. Let's hope it doesn't do that though, but I was just saying.
quite common as a matter of fact

Even so, it would be unwise to call this is a fish right now. I'm sure you know that.
Watching a very good show right now... called "Killer Rain", excellent information.
if td16 does go over cuba and breaks down alittle could it rapidly resternthen in the fla striaght or will shear be to high thanks

To be honest, bil, it would probably only hit Florida as a 50 mph tropical storm if it went over Cuba before becoming a hurricane (I for one believe it will become a hurricane), if even that. Oct/Nov storms move very swiftly, and thus it would take a long time for it to get its inner core organized again if Cuba were to disrupt it. Then again, that same fast motion could cause it not to weaken as much as it normally would. Still, there's a good chance of TD16/Noel not striking Florida as anything more than a Category 1, if it strikes it at all. Time will tell.
the track forecast by the nhc has happened many times before in Nov. Anything can happen though
556. CaneAddict 2:44 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
553. stormybil 2:43 AM GMT on October 28, 2007
just heard on local news the front will be a weak one and may not turn td 16 that sharply timing will be everyting here so so / fla stay alert


As far as im concerned the WHOLE Florida pennisula must stay alert.
Action: | Ignore User


Very true cane! Only a slight deviation would run it up the coast. Eyes WIDE open here.
590. jtn
either way it looks like a close call for Florida. At least it looks as though it will be a min hur at most...at least for now...
looks like a trick for halloween by 0000 utc wed 1001 mb low will lie south of cuba near west end of island then trak wnwnnen lie off se tip just se of miami over mid bahama island area
Given how lopsided 16 is the COC might relocate to the NE under the very heavy convection. This has happened before

The "charcoal " in the IR images represent cloud tops up around 55000 feet and this type of set up with shear over the LLC can often result in the COC " jumping" to the area of heaviest convection.

Not saying it is likely to happen but not out of the question, especially if shear persists
Right now the only way I see this being stronger than a minimal cat 1 is if it moves farther south in the cone
More northern track will keep 16 in a higher shear zone.
thanksKoritheMan did you notice where the high is and will stay for awhile i also dont see breaking thu that strong high and go that far off land you can see the ally taken place it heads right to so fla. then noel could easyly ride up the whole state what you think all thanks again also note the good outflow now developing
Just read the discussion. Nothing but a lot of what ifs.

Will chat with you all tomorrow.
Uncertainties abound
000
WTNT41 KNHC 280306
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...WHILE QUIKSCAT
DATA SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/6. THE LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER HAITI AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY
96-120 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA
BY 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72-96 HR...THEN EITHER RECURVE OR
RE-FORM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFDL AND THE
HWRF CALL FOR A TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOWING THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BY 96-120 HR DUE TO SHEAR. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SPREAD...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE
WESTERLIES. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT COULD
PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...IF THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER IT RATHER THAN NORTH OF IT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC
DESPITE STRONG SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR...BELOW
THAT OF THE SHIPS...GFDL..AND HWRF. AFTER 72 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.9N 71.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Good night all and see you in the morning!
599. A4Guy
From NHC Discussion:

BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
The area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea has developed enough
organized convection to be classified as a tropical
depression...with a large convective mass to the east and northeast
of the partly exposed low-level center. Satellite intensity
estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and 25 kt from SAB...while Quikscat
data showed no reliable winds higher than 30 kt. Based on
this...the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/6. The large
cyclonic envelope of the depression is located south of a
low/mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic...with an upper-level
low over Haiti and surface troughs over the northwestern Caribbean
and Gulf of Mexico. The large-scale models generally forecast the
Atlantic ridge to gradually weaken...with a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United States by
96-120 hr. The track guidance responds to this evolution with a
range of possibilities. The UKMET keeps the system south of Cuba
by 120 hr...while the NOGAPS forecasts it to reach the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico by that time. The GFS and ECMWF forecast the
cyclone to turn northward by 72-96 hr...then either recurve or
re-form northeastward into the northern Bahamas. The GFDL and the
HWRF call for a track across Haiti and the central Bahamas into the
Atlantic. The track forecast is further complicated by the
GFS...ECMWF...and NOGAPS showing the separation of the low-level
and mid-level centers by 96-120 hr due to shear. The track
forecast is down the middle of this spread...with a northwestward
motion through 72 hr followed by a slow recurvature into the
westerlies. It is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF.

The combination of the large size of the depression and vertical
wind shear from the upper-level low should slow development during
the first 36 hr or so. After that...the large-scale models build a
large upper-level anticyclone over the western Caribbean that could
produce a more favorable environment for strengthening...if the
cyclone is under it rather than north of it as currently forecast.
The GFDL and HWRF make the system a hurricane over the Atlantic
despite strong shear. Due to the uncertainty...the intensity
forecast calls for gradually strengthening through 72 hr...below
that of the SHIPS...GFDL..and HWRF. After 72 hr...little change in
strength is forecast due to a combination of land interaction and
increasing shear along the forecast track.
Both the track and intensity forecasts have greater than normal
uncertainty at this time.
thanksKoritheMan did you notice where the high is and will stay for awhile i also dont see breaking thu that strong high and go that far off land you can see the ally taken place it heads right to so fla. then noel could easyly ride up the whole state what you think all thanks again also note the good outflow now developing

Only time will tell, bil. :)
NHC, including myself, have no idea what 16 is going to do.
I love how experts still can't predict what the weather will do...(There's a deeper message in there somewhere.)
iam more concearn with intensity all the storms got strong fast this year i hope this thing dont take off and turn into a cat 5 sst's are in the 29 degree range very warm low shear good cirulation strong convection the makins are there for a trick for halloween
At 12:00am UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five has 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots moving west at 5 knots.

Next advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is in 12 hours.
Still no "DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2007" at 530am IST from IMD..
607. 786
Thx Aquax, I am just wondering if it should be something for us to watch out for. Its ironic but I have been tracking hurricanes all season and Monday is my b-day, how funny would that be?? NEway I see kmanislander is online, how likely do you think this invest will effect Cayman??
609. JRRP
here in santo domingo is raining with light gusty winds
Very intense tropical depression

From the IMD

(1) Yesterday’s depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 28th October 2007 over the southwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 11.50N and Long. 84.50E, about 480 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh Coast between Pudducherry and Kavali by tomorrow, the 29th October evening.




Under its influence, rain / thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Tamilnadu & Pudducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the same period.


Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off TamilNadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours.



(2) The depression over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and intensified into a deep depression. It lay centred at 0830 Hrs IST of 28th October 2007 near lat 10.50 N and long 66.50 E. It likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction initially. Sea condition rough to very rough over south Arabian sea.

As the deep depression is expected to move west-northwestwards, it is not likely to affect Indian coast. However, the system is under constant watch.