WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. 62901IL
Quoting 1999. GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone think we should raise the tropical storm wind criteria level?

40mph winds do practically nothing more than a TD would.

I think it should be raised to 50-60mph, maybe 58 like a thunderstorm.

The TS wind field of a 45mph or 50mph TS is not favorable for significant wind damage.

No.
Quoting 1998. 62901IL:
Poll time!!!
Q: When do you think 95L will develop?
A: Never
B: Today
C: Tomorrow
D: Tuesday.

B
C
D

Quoting 1999. GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone think we should raise the tropical storm wind criteria level?

40mph winds do practically nothing more than a TD would.

I think it should be raised to 50-60mph, maybe 58 like a thunderstorm.

The TS wind field of a 45mph or 50mph TS is not favorable for significant wind damage.

Nah it's just fine
Quoting 1997. wunderkidcayman:

Hold up your calling bust way too fast


This must be last nights ASCAT new one doesn't arrive yet


Check for yourself
Here is the T-wave that is behind 95L

Quoting 2000. Tropicsweatherpr:


No closed circulation.


Not just not closed but almost all winds are from ~NNE direction except the ones flagged in yellow.
Quoting 1995. wunderkidcayman:

I'm not following models however it will eventually move WNW away from South America


We'll see.
2007. pcola57
Quoting 1998. 62901IL:
Poll time!!!
Q: When do you think 95L will develop?
A: Never
B: Today
C: Tomorrow
D: Tuesday.


D..
It looks like that trough that was protecting Louisiana is beginning to move north.
2009. Relix
95L ain't going anywhere in the Atlantic for now.
2010. gator23
Protecting LA from what?

Quoting 2008. aislinnpaps:
It looks like that trough that was protecting Louisiana is beginning to move north.
Quoting 2003. nrtiwlnvragn:


Check for yourself

Yeah I'll just wait till I see it from here Link
2012. FOREX
Quoting 2007. pcola57:


D..


Constantly.
HWRF showing a Cat.1 in 42 hours,don't think so with that pressure!!!
I guess it's safe to say the 2013 wave train is leaving the station, huh?

awt
Quoting 2010. gator23:
Protecting LA from what?



It was keeping the rain south of us going almost completely to New Orleans. I think it may have played a part in helping to keep 94L from forming. Of course, I'm not the best at weather forecasting. All I've learned is from in here.


elongated.
New vorticity is showing it has increased some evident by some of the red starting to show up



Convergence getting better now:







ULAC actually helping it breathe some on the northern side still has a way to go though and will probably need a good burst of convection and slowing down to 15-20mph to lower the pressure and close off. It should detach from the ITCZ later today and Monday.



Quoting 1999. GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone think we should raise the tropical storm wind criteria level?

40mph winds do practically nothing more than a TD would.

I think it should be raised to 50-60mph, (probably 50), but maybe 58 like a thunderstorm.

The TS wind field of a 45mph or 50mph TS is not favorable for significant wind damage.
No what would you want next change Hurricanes to 100mph?
2019. flcanes
Morning All!
I am going to stick with my bet of 50% or 60% at next TWO
2020. flcanes
Quoting 2018. gulfbreeze:
No what would you want next change Hurricanes to 100mph?

Well, more like 95 mph, but still, that would mean cat 5s would need to be at least 180 mph
Quoting 2015. aislinnpaps:


It was keeping the rain south of us going almost completely to New Orleans. I think it may have played a part in helping to keep 94L from forming. Of course, I'm not the best at weather forecasting. All I've learned is from in here.


Ack, that came out wrong. I've learned a lot from here. I meant I don't understand it all as well as most in here.
Quoting 2014. Neapolitan:
I guess it's safe to say the 2013 wave train is leaving the station, huh?

awt
Woo-Woo!
2023. beell
Quoting 2015. aislinnpaps:


...Of course, I'm not the best at weather forecasting. All I've learned is from in here.


I know that was not intended to be funny, but...
;-)
Quoting 2009. Relix:
95L ain't going anywhere in the Atlantic for now.
very much agreed and it probably wont do anything at all down the road
2025. gator23
ah ok I thought you were referring to 95L and I thought woah, premature!

Quoting 2015. aislinnpaps:


It was keeping the rain south of us going almost completely to New Orleans. I think it may have played a part in helping to keep 94L from forming. Of course, I'm not the best at weather forecasting. All I've learned is from in here.

Quoting 2013. stormchaser19:
HWRF showing a Cat.1 in 42 hours,don't think so with that pressure!!!
Intensity forecast by the HWRF can never be taken to serious. It will a have cat 2 on one run and a cluster of thunderstorms on the next.
Quoting 2019. flcanes:
Morning All!
I am going to stick with my bet of 50% or 60% at next TWO
40% the same I don`t see anything new that would make them increase the chances.
Quoting 2016. stormpetrol:


elongated.

I don't know why but WINDSAT been showing S wind all across the Atlantic and Caribbean which is incorrect so I'm putting that aside

Quoting 2017. Hurricanes305:
New vorticity is show it is increasing evident by some of the red starting to show up



Convergence getting better now:







ULAC actually helping it breathe some on the northern side still has a way to go though and will probably need a good burst of convection and slowing down to 15-20mph to lower the pressure and close off. It should detach from the ITCZ later today and Monday.





Yep




I can clearly see a LLC near 9.5N 42.0W and it certainly looks closed
2029. LargoFl
Quoting 1972. Grothar:
Latest models


Gro we do NOT need another rainmaker in the gulf huh...
2030. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
542 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-072145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
542 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW RIVERS AND CREEKS REMAIN IN FLOOD TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD EXACERBATE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

CARLISLE
2031. beell
2032. gator23
Unless 95L was teleported to the Indian Ocean this statement is already factually incorrect

Quoting 2009. Relix:
95L ain't going anywhere in the Atlantic for now.
Quoting 2026. Hurricanes305:

Intensity forecast by the HWRF can never be taken to serious. It will a have cat 2 on one run and a cluster of thunderstorms on the next.


Seems to be an error in the pressure, GFDL is showing the same trash at 60 hours.
Looks like it should be interesting on St. Croix this week
Quoting 1983. junie1:
yep too hot lately


I hope for some GOOD rain too ...
2036. Grothar
Quoting 2029. LargoFl:
Gro we do NOT need another rainmaker in the gulf huh...


Hey, Largo. Long time no see. Why, has it been wet there recently?
2037. LargoFl
Quoting 2027. allancalderini:
40% the same I don`t see anything new that would make them increase the chances.


It doesn't have anything to do with what has changed now. It had to do with what kind of environment it will be in within 48 hours!
2039. Grothar
95L finally in the picture. Looks strong.


Quoting 2031. beell:

If it wasn't for the band of convection and thunderstorm on 95L W side I think 95L would have been screwed

Quoting 2032. gator23:
Unless 95L was teleported to the Indian Ocean this statement is already factually incorrect


You know people need to think
I think 95L's convection will start to rebuild soon maybe a little later today
2042. GatorWX
This seems to make a very clear argument there is a closed surface circulation.

No doubt it will encounter a region a dry stable air today, but I don't see conditions as being very bad once it's near the Caribbean. By the time it's in the central and western Caribbean things may be different. Time will tell. Cape Verde season seems to be starting early and with a fury. We'll see how big of a factor the SAL plays, but it looks to be moister than average in the central and eastern portion of the MDR. I keep wanting to reiterate this is going to be another one of those seasons.
2043. Grothar
Still keeping an eye on this. I don't expect much, but it could bring some good storms to the Florida east coast.

2044. beell
As has been the case over the past two weeks, a fast Caribbean LLJ continues. In addition to the problems caused in closing off a circulation, the low-level mass removal out of the Caribbean basin leads to mass replacement (subsidence)from above. The "Eastern Caribbean Dead Zone" awaits 95L.
Quoting 2042. GatorWX:
This seems to make a very clear argument there is a closed surface circulation.

No doubt it will encounter a region a dry stable air today, but I don't see conditions as being very bad once it's near the Caribbean. By the time it's in the central and western Caribbean things may be different. Time will tell. Cape Verde season seems to be starting early and with a fury. We'll see how big of a factor the SAL plays, but it looks to be moister than average in the central and eastern portion of the MDR. I keep wanting to reiterate this is going to be another one of those seasons.
Good catch circulation is exposed however probably due to Southwesterly Shear. By the way Good Sunday morning to everyone.

2046. gator23
Nah, thats too hard. Making blanket statements is MUCH easier.


Quoting 2040. wunderkidcayman:

You know people need to think
2047. wpb
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13.3N 57.3W FOR 09/1200Z.
Date: Jul. 7, 2013 12:00 Z (Sunday)
Coordinates: 9.0N 40.8W
Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (29.77inHg | 1008hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.): 30 knots (35mph | 15m/s | 56km/h)
Location: 1,308 statue miles (2,104 km) to the ESE (103°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1012 mb. (29.89 inHg | 1012 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 150 nautical miles. (173 miles | 278 kilometers)
Radius of Max Winds: 50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers)
System Depth: Medium
95L still a mess at the surface.
Quoting 2047. wpb:
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13.3N 57.3W FOR 09/1200Z.

Is this updated or is this the same one from yesterday
Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone

I'm thinking we should have a Virgin Islands party in here today!

Breezy 85, clouds off and on, choppy seas kind of day today.

-L

2052. beell
Quoting 2049. MiamiHurricanes09:
95L still a mess at the surface.

Nope there is a good circulation however it's not closed yet
Is this real???





@miasosiak Mia Sosiak 16m
Saturday's hailstorm in Airdrie area, courtesy of Cpt. Daryl Frank, Jazz Aviation. Cool view!
Quoting 2049. MiamiHurricanes09:
95L still a mess at the surface.


Is moving too fast, the trade winds are kicking him!
All we need now is a closed low and we will have T.D 3.
This reminds me of storms like Dolly and Irene who had T.S force winds but not the closed low level circulation.95L is getting there and don't be surprised to see a re-number sometime today.Also I believe a upper level anti-cyclone is trying to form over head of our system.
Good morning all....looks like 95L has good outflow this morning
Quoting 2043. Grothar:
Still keeping an eye on this. I don't expect much, but it could bring some good storms to the Florida east coast.



Local mets saying Tuesday should be a wet one.
95L looking better this morning, starting to see more turning in the cloud field. That being said, this system still has some work to do.

I dont expect development until tomorrow night or Tuesday at the earliest, if that
Once 95L slows down even a little bit it should begin to organize and may even take off like the HWRF and GFDL are suggesting. A wait and see right now.
Manati ASCAT B solution a little better...... still not closed.


Quoting 2053. wunderkidcayman:

Nope there is a good circulation however it's not closed yet


Speed of 95L reminds of Dean 07, BTW I see on my BB Serious car accident in WB, Hell Road closed!
A lot of the GFS ensembles want to take it to either Florida or the Carolina's
Quoting 2056. washingtonian115:
All we need now is a closed low and we will have T.D 3.
This reminds me of storms like Dolly and Irene who had T.S force winds but not the closed low level circulation.95L is getting there and don't be surprised to see a re-number sometime today.Also I believe a upper level anti-cyclone is trying to form over head of our system.

Agreed

Quoting 2061. nrtiwlnvragn:
Manati ASCAT B solution a little better...... still not closed.


Nope, but seeing Tropical Storm force winds, once a center closes off we should see a re-number.
From Mark Sudduth:

At the very least it will bring showers and gusty winds to the area as it passes by. Whether or not it will be more than that remains to be seen. Climatology argues against it but this season may be different than the average season and as such, we should watch this feature closely.
Quoting 2053. wunderkidcayman:

Nope there is a good circulation however it's not closed yet
There isn't any "circulation" really...just an elongated trough.
Link

Look at at this loop you can LLC at around 9.8N/42.1W
2069. FOREX
Quoting 2060. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Once 95L slows down even a little bit it should begin to organize and may even take off like the HWRF and GFDL are suggesting. A wait and see right now.


This reminds me of a storm a few years ago that was speeding across the Atlantic, but in the end when it made landfall it stalled and sat and sat for days ruining a lot of peoples lives. Anything can happen with this.
95L is a typical WU invest, a slow organizing system with potentional. Keep watching the TWO for further updates.
Early and mid-July tropical disturbances in the Atlantic usually move forward quite quickly as compared to later in the season. 95L is holding together quite well at the present time despite its fast forward speed. It will have to gain at least a couple of degrees latitude to avoid running into South America in two or three days.
Quoting 2067. MiamiHurricanes09:
There isn't any "circulation" really...just an elongated trough.



But really good outflow it looks like
Quoting 2061. nrtiwlnvragn:
Manati ASCAT B solution a little better...... still not closed.



Yep almost closed circulation just open on the SW side

Quoting 2062. stormpetrol:


Speed of 95L reminds of Dean 07, BTW I see on my BB Serious car accident in WB, Hell Road closed!

True and yeah I got the alert on my IPad says cyclist is dead in this accident

Quoting 2069. FOREX:


This reminds me of a storm a few years ago that was speeding across the Atlantic, but in the end when it made landfall it stalled and sat and sat for days ruining a lot of peoples lives. Anything can happen with this.
Reminds me and perhaps very similar conditions to TS Emily..."The cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Emily was complicated, extending over several days from late July into early August. An easterly tropical wave%u2014an equatorward trough of low pressure%u2014exited the west African coast in the fourth week of July, at which point it became largely embedded within the monsoon trough.[1] Located to the south of a ridge of high pressure, the wave moved west-northwestward across the open Atlantic."
Quoting 2067. MiamiHurricanes09:
There isn't any "circulation" really...just an elongated trough.


There's a circulation, however it appears to be only half-closed. It's better than it was yesterday, however it still has a lot of work to do. Not bad though for something hauling at 24mph.
Quoting 2054. AussieStorm:
Is this real???





@miasosiak Mia Sosiak 16m
Saturday's hailstorm in Airdrie area, courtesy of Cpt. Daryl Frank, Jazz Aviation. Cool view!
Looks to be. There are a number of videos on YouTube showing the event.

Nice image.
95L needs to build convection on the eastern side
Quoting 2068. stormpetrol:
Link

Look at at this loop you can LLC at around 9.8N/42.1W

Yep see it

95L is small, dry and moving too quickly. I don't expect much from it.
Quoting 2073. wunderkidcayman:

Yep almost closed circulation just open on the SW side


True and yeah I got the alert on my IPad says cyclist is dead in this accident



Sad! Ithink we'll have a TD by early evening or tonight.
Erick down to Tropical Storm.

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND NO
SIGNS OF AN EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB/CIMSS DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ERICK HAS
PEAKED IN INTENSITY WITH THE CYCLONE NOW CROSSING OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST...A BIT BELOW
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-22C WATER...IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD FIRM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING ERICK TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM
PASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE ERICK IS MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

Quoting weatherlover94:
A lot of the GFS ensembles want to take it to either Florida or the Carolina's


I have a feeling this could be an east coast system.
The forecast is saying for the increase for the trade winds, as 95l moves west-northwest definitely, bad scenario for him....
Quoting 2075. CybrTeddy:


There's a circulation, however it appears to be only half-closed. It's better than it was yesterday, however it still has a lot of work to do. Not bad though for something hauling at 24mph.

Yes Teddy

Quoting 2077. weatherlover94:
95L needs to build convection on the eastern side

If you take a close look at the satellite loop you can see its already starting two spots on the S part of the LLC and another on E side of circulation
Guys how do you change your profile picture ? I have done several things with it but I can't get it to change
LLC? img src="http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/onlin e/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater.gif">
Back in my lurking days in 2009 there was a tropical wave that people were rooting to develop..it was by Africa and I think it was 99L? but it then got shredded to pieces by the shear and people had a funeral for it.lol.
Quoting 2082. AussieStorm:


I have a feeling this could be an east coast system.


Yep. Anywhere between Nicaragua and Newfoundland.
Quoting 2079. yonzabam:
95L is small, dry and moving too quickly. I don't expect much from it.

It's growing, not close to dry and soon going to slow down a bit so stop being a downcaster

Quoting 2080. stormpetrol:


Sad! Ithink we'll have a TD by early evening or tonight.

Maybe and maybe not till tomorrow
Quoting 2082. AussieStorm:


I have a feeling this could be an east coast system.



I have a feeling you are right. My best guess right now is any where from Myrtle Beach SC north to Virginia Beach VA
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looks to be. There are a number of videos on YouTube showing the event.

Nice image.


DANG!! That's like snow.
What happened to 94L? I blinked and it's gone-sure was hoping for some rain in S. TX.
2093. DDR
Bracing for rains 95L in Trinidad,no way this goes north of 14N by 61w.
95L will not develop unless it slows down, forecasts are mixed on whether or not this is actually going to happen
Quoting 2085. weatherlover94:
Guys how do you change your profile picture ? I have done several things with it but I can't get it to change
Your talking to the expert.Click on your pic then go t upload photos which is in the upper right side of your screen.Then after click the browse button to get pictures from your computer.Or press my photos modify if you have some uploaded to this site and press "my primary photo"
Quoting 2093. DDR:
Bracing for rains 95L in Trinidad,no way this goes north of 14N by 61w.

Yeah I think you're right

Quoting 2094. Hurricanes101:
95L will not develop unless it slows down, forecasts are mixed on whether or not this is actually going to happen

I think it should do so soon
Quoting 2083. stormchaser19:
the forecast is saying for the increase for the trade winds, as 95l moves west-northwest definitely, bad scenario for him....

From 48 hours on SHIPS is saying 20-30kts of shear for 95L with only marginal moisture to work with. That combined with its fast forward motion would likely prevent development if it verified. If it can avoid the higher shear though it could at least become a TD. I am thinking it goes south of what the current models think.
Link

A lot of the Ensembles take the storm just north of Hispaniola and if that is the case and as the storm in what ever form it's in turns toward the Unites States could be a nasty one. If the storm Gets tangled up in the Islands like many models are suggesting it could be nothing more than an open wave and hit Florida as a rain event.....we will have to wait and see
The mere fact that these models want to turn it more towards the WNW would not only imply a change in direction, but a slow down in speed.
Based on this loop would have to agree there is an exposed low level swirl.
I want 95L to stay away from here.If its more weaker then it'll probably track through the caribbean and may eventually turn northward into the gulf.But that's wishful thinking.
Quoting 2098. MAweatherboy1:

From 48 hours on SHIPS is saying 20-30kts of shear for 95L with only marginal moisture to work with. That combined with its fast forward motion would likely prevent development if it verified. If it can avoid the higher shear though it could at least become a TD. I am thinking it goes south of what the current models think.

Well looking at the shear maps its got 5-10kt shear ahead it band to its W is keeping the dry air at bay for now and I believe it's forward speed should drop down soon so it should keep it going and if any development it will happen slower than expected and I think you're right it will travel S of what the models show
2104. ackee
what will become of 95L ?


A TS
B TD
C OPEN WAVE
D Dissipate


Quoting 2092. cctxshirl:
What happened to 94L? I blinked and it's gone-sure was hoping for some rain in S. TX.


It looks more there than it did last night, but it's been de-activated. Austin rain chance 20 today 20 tomorrow then zip. This system has broken my heart.
Dean was moving at 21mph when its first advisory was issued, 24 is fast but it could still develop
Exposed vortex soon.
Quoting 2074. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Reminds me and perhaps very similar conditions to TS Emily..."The cyclogenesis of Tropical Storm Emily was complicated, extending over several days from late July into early August. An easterly tropical wave%u2014an equatorward trough of low pressure%u2014exited the west African coast in the fourth week of July, at which point it became largely embedded within the monsoon trough.[1] Located to the south of a ridge of high pressure, the wave moved west-northwestward across the open Atlantic."
She continued west through the Caribbean and passed close to the Cayman Islands. I remember her well. Had several trees blown down in my yard.
2109. SLU
Nice thunderstorm burst occurring near the center of 95L. The MLC is displaced about a degree further south indicative of a decoupled system.

Quoting 2100. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The mere fact that these models want to turn it more towards the WNW would not only imply a change in direction, but a slow down in speed.

Yep
Quoting 2101. nrtiwlnvragn:
Based on this loop would have to agree there is an exposed low level swirl.

Yes
Clouds starting to build in Houston from ex-94L. Boomer are starting to build. Looking forward to rain today!
The Euro has the system in northern of leeward islands, this track means some slow down!!
Emily of 2011 was the storm of multiple centers.
Quoting 2104. ackee:
what will become of 95L ?


A TS
B TD
C OPEN WAVE
D Dissipate



A TS and maybe stronger just maybe

Quoting 2107. hurricane23:
Exposed vortex soon.

Nah it's exposed long enough it's stating to cover it seems

Quoting 2108. stormwatcherCI:
She continued west through the Caribbean and passed close to the Cayman Islands. I remember her well. Had several trees blown down in my yard.

Yep I remember it too

Quoting 2109. SLU:
Nice thunderstorm burst occurring near the center of 95L. The MLC is displaced about a degree further south indicative of a decoupled system.



It should get back together soon
Quoting 2112. stormchaser19:
The Euro has the system in northern of leeward island, this track means some slow down!!


Nah it's gonna move further S

2116. Grothar
Looks like it wants to be low rider.


95L is really spinning up now, but still not getting any latitude.

Looks like really good inflow on visible and shortwave.
Very organized system,I wouldn't downcast this at all.

Find more about Weather in Rydalmere, New South Wales, Australia
Weather Forecast

It's a little chilly so I'm off to bed.
Night all. Brrrrrrr

Quoting 2116. Grothar:
Looks like it wants to be low rider.


Imo Hispañola is the worst landmass in terms of Islands in the Caribbean a tropical storm or a hurricane can hit.
Acutally unless this slows down or developes a real llc there wont be much left come tommorow around this time. Its dealing with some easterly vertical shear along with sinking air.
Shear and dry air is not an issue right now at all.
Quoting 2075. CybrTeddy:


There's a circulation, however it appears to be only half-closed. It's better than it was yesterday, however it still has a lot of work to do. Not bad though for something hauling at 24mph.


hmm, moving that fast is actually not helping the storm organize as much
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic
Quoting 2124. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?
Not either one of them but yes they do.
I am not as sold as I was on 95L doing anything

fairly well organized, but it has a lot more things against it then many on here think
Seeing the hail path in the photo taken above Alberta yesterday, (it looks like the path of a tornado) I was wondering if there are studies of the paths of hail across the landscape. How unusual is this trail of hail?
2129. Grothar
I better start my checklist.


Quoting 2121. hurricane23:
Acutally unless this slows down or developes a real llc there wont be much left come tommorow around this time. Its dealing with some easterly vertical shear along with sinking air.
Quoting 2122. Camille33:
Shear and dry air is not an issue right now at all.
meh I am not sure which of you is correct.
Quoting 2116. Grothar:
Looks like it wants to be low rider.



No it doesn't want to be it will be

Quoting 2117. RTSplayer:
95L is really spinning up now, but still not getting any latitude.

Looks like really good inflow on visible and shortwave.

Yes it had gain some by the time it reaches 60W I think it will be below 14N and above 11N

Quoting 2118. Camille33:
Very organized system,I wouldn't downcast this at all.

Yep
2132. Grothar
Quoting 2120. allancalderini:
Imo Hispañola is the worst landmass in terms of Islands in the Caribbean a tropical storm or a hurricane can hit.


Yes, some terrible tragedies there.
Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.


Me too and BTW, good morning and happy you are on the road to recovery.
Quoting 2115. wunderkidcayman:


Nah it's gonna move further S



Yeah. Steering suggests it may not even have time to develop, since it's going to be very close to the continent.


2135. SLU
Based on the latest loops, it seems that 95L's center is relocating further south along its elongated trough under the MLC near 8n 42w. This would give it a better chance for survival since it would be more vertically stacked and the center would be closer to the deepest convection.

Quoting 2132. Grothar:


Yes, some terrible tragedies there.


tragedies?
Quoting 2125. Tazmanian:
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic

This is a td or what is going on?
Quoting 2126. stormwatcherCI:
Not either one of them but yes they do.
Oh man those are so good, I am actually craving that right now. Of course we make the one with raisins and El Dorado Rum in it. :D
Quoting 2124. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?

Yep

Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.



You shoulda had that done from 2 months ago
Quoting 2139. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh man those are so good, I am actually craving that right now. Of course we make the one with raisins and El Dorado Rum in it. :D
I think they can be ordered from the US or there might be an outlet or something that sells them.
Quoting 2137. Camille33:

This is a td or what is going on?


do you understand what he even said??
td?
Quoting 2141. CaicosRetiredSailor:


95L
Looking good :(
2145. jpsb
Quoting 2029. LargoFl:
Gro we do NOT need another rainmaker in the gulf huh...
Yes we do, Texas is dry as heck.
2146. Patrap
95L may Impact S.America?
Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.




if it manages to miss Hispaniola you may have something on your hands
Quoting 2132. Grothar:


Yes, some terrible tragedies there.
I actually try to say that tc that hit Hispañola most of them not recuperate from the mountainous region,but you are correct Gro.
Quoting 2147. weatherlover94:


if it manages to miss Hispaniola you may have something on your hands


It has to avoid S America first
I have seen lots of eventual big storms with exposed llc, this happens a lot of times.
2151. Patrap
Hurricane Preparation 2013

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.








Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
2152. viman
Quoting washingtonian115:
Emily of 2011 was the storm of multiple centers.

so was Erika 09

time to play "Pick A Center"
2153. Patrap
NOLA Long Range

If 95 L doesn't start to gain some Lattitude it going to run right into South America
Quoting 2150. Camille33:
I have seen lots of eventual big storms with exposed llc, this happens a lot of times.


I have seen a lot of nothing storms with the same thing

its a watch and wait, 95L has its work cut out for it honestly
95L will be around for a few days, it is vigourous African wave those never seem to die off quietly. Don't expect it to just to dissapate anytime soon.
I'll leave you with this....

Fresh view of 95L from NASA



COC in the NE corner under the feeder band/umbilical to ITCZ

Larger view here
The SAL covering him,some development are not anticipated maybe in 24-36 when the SAL decrease.
I want this to go into the gulf.Sorry I know this sounds selfish but I really don't want another storm.Just got finished dealing with flood problems and trees in my yard have been weaken.So any strong gust and they will go toppling over.
Correct me if Im wrong but wasn't Charley in 2004 about as small as 95L is now when it first developed ?
Quoting 2124. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic: WKC or Stormpetrol do they still sell the Tortuga Rum Cake in the Caymans?
They do, and it is amazing.
2162. Patrap
Quoting 2158. stormchaser19:
The SAL covering him,some development are not anticipated maybe in 24-36 when the SALT decrease.

lol there is no sal it is moisture seperated blanket.Wishcaster.
Quoting 2154. weatherlover94:
If 95 L doesn't start to gain some Lattitude it going to run right into South America

As the storm organizes it gets latitude... Don't worry, it still has time and space
Quoting 2159. washingtonian115:
I want this to go into the gulf.Sorry I know this sounds selfish but I really don't want another storm.Just got finished dealing with flood problems and trees in my yard have been weaken.So any strong gust and they will go toppling over.


If we're going to wish it somewhere, let's wish it out to sea. Don't want to wish it on anyone.
Quoting 2138. Patrap:


..all, my, Invest's, own a low rider...


take a little trip, take a little trip, take
Quoting 2158. stormchaser19:
The SAL covering him,some development are not anticipated maybe in 24-36 when the SALT decrease.

SaL ain't on him and look again 95Ls convection is pushing the SAL away
Quoting 2165. aislinnpaps:


If we're going to wish it somewhere, let's wish it out to sea. Don't want to wish it on anyone.
Unfortunately with that strong ridge in place that seems it doesn't want to break down soon it has two options.East coast of gulf.
2170. SLU
Quoting 2167. wunderkidcayman:

SaL ain't on him and look again 95Ls convection is pushing the SAL away


You're right .. the SAL to the north is backing away. The problem will be when the SAL to its west gets drawn into the large circulation.
Quoting 2137. Camille33:

This is a td or what is going on?



It needs a closed low level circulation to be called a TD.

There is conflicting information on CSU website, because some tools have it ranked as high as T3.8 already, but the max official winds are still only 35mph.

In spite of having circulation, you can tell from Dvorak and Funktop that this thing is not significantly developed yet at this time.

Coldest cloud tops are barely -60C, but it needs widespread -60C and isolated -80C to really be on the path to a TS...
Quoting 2164. trHUrrIXC5MMX:

As the storm organizes it gets latitude... Don't worry, it still has time and space
.

it looks like it is trying to build up its Eastern side. I am going to say Tropical Cyclone by tomorrow some time I am predicting 50% on the next TWO at 2:00 pm and maybe 60 0r 70 at 2:00 am....the million dollar question remains...after it develops what happens to it ? Does it get sheared apart or become our first Hurricane ?
Quoting 2163. Camille33:

lol there is no sal it is moisture seperated blanket.Wishcaster.


It's dry air or dusty SAL....Wishcaster are you!!!If the mods are here this is the time to ban!!!
Quoting 2168. mynameispaul:
95L seems to be pushing the dry air out of it's way and moistening it's forward path.
2175. ackee
Quoting 2135. SLU:
Based on the latest loops, it seems that 95L's center is relocating further south along its elongated trough under the MLC near 8n 42w. This would give it a better chance for survival since it would be more vertically stacked and the center would be closer to the deepest convection.

agree the system need to gain some latitude also the center relocating further south means this system will going through the Caribbean if it does not develop before it reach the eastern Caribbean I don't see it developing until it reach the western Caribbean if it survive south america
2176. hydrus
Quoting 2173. stormchaser19:


It's dry air or dusty SAL....Wishcaster are you!!!


let's not fight
2178. Patrap
...is a cute one'


AL952013 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 2169. washingtonian115:
Unfortunately with that strong ridge in place that seems it doesn't want to break down soon it has two options.East coast of gulf.


I know, but wishes are free. My Gran taught me if you're going to dream, dream big. *G*
Quoting 2154. weatherlover94:
If 95 L doesn't start to gain some Lattitude it going to run right into South America
Quoting 2154. weatherlover94:
If 95 L doesn't start to gain some Lattitude it going to run right into South America
If it gains latitude it will run into Sal.
Quoting 2162. Patrap:

I been in the right place. But it must have been the wrong time. I'd of said the right thing. But I must have used the wrong line. I been in the right trip. But I must ..... RIP? 94L
2182. FOREX
Quoting 2180. allancalderini:
If it gains latitude it will run into Sal.


I hope it stalls.
Quoting 2129. Grothar:
I better start my checklist.




Step by step, frame by frame...Niagara Falls!
Quoting 2172. weatherlover94:
.

it looks like it is trying to build up its Eastern side. I am going to say Tropical Cyclone by tomorrow some time I am predicting 50% on the next TWO at 2:00 pm and maybe 60 0r 70 at 2:00 am....the million dollar question remains...after it develops what happens to it ? Does it get sheared apart or become our first Hurricane ?


I'm fairly sure the storm is going to become a cyclone... But still unsure what it'll do afterwards, lots of factors ahead of the storm

High pressure ridge, it's strength
How strong the storm gets
Land interaction, especially Hispaniola, and how strong it gets there and how strong it leaves
Depending on how strong it leaves, that could determine the path, a weaker storm heads more westwards. Stronger storm more northwards, like I said, the high pressure ridge matters here
Then you must deal with dry air, winds hear and how strong they are

See? Too many factors in forecasting, there are others I don't mention
Quoting 2170. SLU:


You're right .. the SAL to the north is backing away. The problem will be when the SAL to its west gets drawn into the large circulation.

Yeah no that to its W will get pushed as well

Quoting 2174. stormwatcherCI:
95L seems to be pushing the dry air out of it's way and moistening it's forward path.

Yep

Quoting 2175. ackee:
agree the system need to gain some latitude also the center relocating further south means this system will going through the Caribbean if it does not develop before it reach the eastern Caribbean I don't see it developing until it reach the western Caribbean if it survive south america

Yep

I don't think the LLC will relocate I think the convection will rebuild and shift back over the LLC
2187. Patrap
Quoting 2181. redwagon:
Quoting 2162. Patrap:

I been in the right place. But it must have been the wrong time. I'd of said the right thing. But I must have used the wrong line. I been in the right trip. But I must ..... RIP? 94L


Dr. John, yeah you rite', or Mac to us Local's.
2188. ackee
I wonder if 95L is just clearing the path for that wave that just came off Africa guess we know in a few days
Quoting 2180. allancalderini:
If it gains latitude it will run into Sal.

It'll get latitude slowly... It's not going to be moving straight north as it organizes.
2191. beell
Quoting 2176. hydrus:


a little pop-up over the first rejected swirl.
Quoting 2176. hydrus:



by looking at that it looks like 95L center have refourm too the S and under the t-storms


if it was exposs then i dont think it would have a T # of 2.0 then


07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic



some in two think about
Quoting 2188. ackee:
I wonder if 95L is just clearing the path for that wave that just came off Africa guess we know in a few days

95L may develop and sweep out the condition for the next one
Quoting 2185. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'm fairly sure the storm is going to become a cyclone... But still unsure what it'll do afterwards, lots of factors ahead of the storm

High pressure ridge, it's strength
How strong the storm gets
Land interaction, especially Hispaniola, and how strong it gets there and how strong it leaves
Depending on how strong it leaves, that could determine the path, a weaker storm heads more westwards. Stronger storm more northwards, like I said, the high pressure ridge matters here
Then you must deal with dry air, winds hear and how strong they are

See? Too many factors in forecasting, there are others I don't mention



I don't guess we will know what the future holds for it until we get the cone and intensity forecast from the NHC. In the 8:00 am update they said conditions are EXPECTED to be favorable
Quoting 2183. Tropicsweatherpr:
Quoting 2183. Tropicsweatherpr:
This really reminds me of Irene and Emily of 2011 when the first advisory have them cross Hispañola and then a landfall in Florida.
Quoting 2191. beell:


a little pop-up over the first rejected swirl.

If that was an rejected swirl

Quoting 2192. Tazmanian:



by looking at that it looks like 95L center have refourm too the S and under the t-storms


if it was exposs then i dont think it would have a T # of 2.0 then


07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic



some in two think about

Maybe

Quoting 2194. weatherlover94:



I don't guess we will know what the future holds for it until we get the cone and intensity forecast from the NHC. In the 8:00 am update they said conditions are EXPECTED to be favorable

In the short term (1-2 days out), not the long term.
NRL Monterey ASCAT A solution, not even close to a closed circulation..........










Link
2199. Patrap

AL952013 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


click image for loop


to ZOOM, click on the animated image

New graphic out from NHC

Quoting 2198. nrtiwlnvragn:
NRL Monterey ASCAT A solution, not even close to a closed circulation..........










Link

Maybe maybe not

Things look favorable until about 60 W.....after that it looks like lots of Shear unless the storm develops it's own upper level anticyclone as it moves through it
Quoting 2201. wunderkidcayman:

Maybe maybe not


There is 2 llc...one under the main tstms the other exposed,it's an optical illusion.
2204. Patrap


95L has a pretty tight low level spin which looks very indicative of a closed low. I'm not sure why the NHC has been using the "no closed low" reference for keeping the percentages way down. The closed low reference is normally used for high percentages and just waiting on a low to close off to declare a tropical cyclone. Odd.

Anyway, new thunderstorms appear to be firing near the center again.


Quoting 2202. weatherlover94:
Things look favorable until about 60 W.....after that it looks like lots of Shear unless the storm develops it's own upper level anticyclone as it moves through it
If you look closely there is a tiny ULAC trying to form and ventilate it some there is only 5 kts of shear over the LLC something to watch as the day goes:

2207. Patrap
Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery

2208. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

2209. FOREX
Quoting 2208. Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop



impressive
Watched the weather channels tropical update online. Dr Greg Postel thinks the storm will strengthen
Quoting 2207. Patrap:
Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery

This definitely gives a better idea about it. Lots of moisture surrounding it.
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

VALID 12Z WED JUL 10 2013 - 12Z SUN JUL 14 2013

MUCH OF THE NATION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE WET THIS PERIOD, WITH THE TROUGH DEEPLY TAPPING THE GULF AND ATLANTIC.
Good Morning Folks. Just recapping where I was on Friday on the Blog. Looking at the three areas of interest then (BOC/Bahamas ULL/Atlantic Wave) I surmised that the BOC area probably had the best chance of making TD status, that we needed to see how the vort looked on the Bahamas ULL today, and I did not give much of a chance to the wave.

As of this morning, the BOC has not made much progress, the ULL has not worked down to the surface, and NHC is giving the wave a 40% chance.

Not what I expected to see today but goes to show that we are all just (including NHC) making educated (or uneducated guesses) when it comes to cyclogenesis; this is the toughest area to often predict which is why the models, and model consensus, is the best that we can do at the moment.....Then we have the rare occasion when something spins up without any model support.

Have to see what happens with the wave now but no one on here has a crystal ball............
2214. 62901IL
Quoting 2210. weatherlover94:
Watched the weather channels tropical update online. Dr Greg Postel thinks the storm will strengthen

Of course, there is the 0.000000000000000001% chance everything could fall apart before the next TWO.
Can we please get a circle around the second wave?
2216. Patrap
AL952013 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Tropical rains on the horizon - Matagorda

2218. Patrap
2219. Patrap
2220. sar2401
Quoting Camille33:
I have seen lots of eventual big storms with exposed llc, this happens a lot of times.

That must have been what happened with 94L, I guess, since it never developed in to that big storm, huh? Someone predicted it would, but I forget who just now.
Quoting 2214. 62901IL:

Of course, there is the 0.000000000000000001% chance everything could fall apart before the next TWO.



It's not unheard of
Invest 95L looks to have a closed low this morning.

Quoting 2208. Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop



I see rain in my future!
Quoting 2222. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 95L looks to have a closed low this morning.



ASCAT shows an open circulation.
Quoting 2213. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. Just recapping where I was on Friday on the Blog. Looking at the three areas of interest then (BOC/Bahamas ULL/Atlantic Wave) I surmised that the BOC area probably had the best chance of making TD status, that we needed to see how the vort looked on the Bahamas ULL today, and I did not give much of a chance to the wave.

As of this morning, the BOC has not made much progress, the ULL has not worked down to the surface, and NHC is giving the wave a 40% chance.

Not what I expected to see today but goes to show that we are all just (including NHC) making educated (or uneducated guesses) when it comes to cyclogenesis; this is the toughest area to often predict which is why the models, and model consensus, is the best that we can do at the moment.....Then we have the rare occasion when something spins up without any model support.

Have to see what happens with the wave now but no one on here has a crystal ball............


Well, Stormchaser121 must have something like a crystal ball, because he said earlier that he thought it was going to hit near Freeport, Texas (post #1729). If he's right, I'll eat cane toad stew, but you never know.
2226. Patrap
The one thing I note with 95L, is for its smaller size,its turning,or beginning to turn a lot of Atmosphere.

A true CV seed..maturing slow--ly.


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 08/2100Z A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 08/1815Z C. 09/1030Z
D. 12.5N 54.7W D. 14.0N 60.8W
E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Quoting 2222. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 95L looks to have a closed low this morning.



Even if it did, the closed low looks to be tracking NW, away from any of the convection associated with it.
Quoting 2224. Tropicsweatherpr:


ASCAT shows an open circulation.


It's a very small, compact circulation and very possible that satellite instruments are not picking up on the circulation well. I don't think you see a low level center spinning that quickly without having something closed at the surface.
Quoting 2225. yonzabam:


Well, Stormchaser121 must have something like a crystal ball, because he said earlier that he thought it was going to hit near Freeport, Texas (post #1729). If he's right, I'll eat cane toad stew, but you never know.


A very lucky guess if he is correct............ :)
2231. Relix
Moving to the WNW it seems
First mission on Monday afternoon.

08/1815Z
Quoting 2227. Tropicsweatherpr:
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 07 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 08/2100Z A. 09/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 08/1815Z C. 09/1030Z
D. 12.5N 54.7W D. 14.0N 60.8W
E. 08/2030Z TO 09/0030Z E. 09/1130Z TO 09/1800Z
F. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

Yay recon going out on Monday
2234. Melagoo
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME.


must be getting very close ... conditions look very favourable I'd say ...

This appears closed.

Quoting 2225. yonzabam:


Well, Stormchaser121 must have something like a crystal ball, because he said earlier that he thought it was going to hit near Freeport, Texas (post #1729). If he's right, I'll eat cane toad stew, but you never know.
That is actually a possibility if the trough lifts out or is too weak to pull it north then it sneaks under the Central Plains Ridge.

Quoting 2228. daddyjames:


Even if it did, the closed low looks to be tracking NW, away from any of the convection associated with it.
Could be a deception from the Southwesterly shear from the developing anti-cyclone blowing off the cloud tops?

One thing in favor of 95L (see below) is that there are no ULL/Tutt cells between it and the Antilles at the moment that would dump in any additional dry air towards the circulation. Thus, if it can maintain it's current moisture envelope and gain some latitude, it could develop into a TD if sheer cooperates.

Link
I left lurking this morning we were at code orange/30 and now we are code orange 40 and it seems the blog has blown up!!
I just had a weird thought: looking at the TWO coming from Miami, it seems they may be..... well detached from the seriousness of landfalls elsewhere, interesting to watch and track but not concerned (at least overtly) with the damage after (just a thought) but I bet when a storm like Wilma is bearing down they share the fear!
sorry rambling just posting my thought out loud.
Quoting 2235. RTSplayer:
This appears closed.


Those maps naturally depict every low as a closed circulation. They're meant to show how strong and where the winds are oriented.
Quoting 2220. sar2401:

That must have been what happened with 94L, I guess, since it never developed in to that big storm, huh? Someone predicted it would, but I forget who just now.


I had prepared myself to wake up to ZIP in the GOM. Now what's this thing doing?
12z GFS has a tropical depression in the eastern Atlantic in 144 hours as what is now 95L begins to move northward, east of Florida.


Quoting 2236. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is actually a possibility if the trough lifts out or is too weak to pull it north then it sneaks under the Central Plains Ridge.

Could be a deception from the Southwesterly shear from the developing anti-cyclone blowing off the cloud tops?



As I see it from the RGB loop, the "lower " area of circulation is almost at 10N, and decoupled from the mid-level circulation that is still travelling almost due west at about 8N (more or less).

Very little of the moisture is being pulled north, altough convection is firing up to the southwest of the "COC".
2243. 62901IL
has anyone heard whether or not it is a depression yet?
GFS 48 hrs. lies on the southern end of the guidance.

2245. FOREX
Quoting 2243. 62901IL:
has anyone heard whether or not it is a depression yet?


close
2246. ncstorm


Quoting 2243. 62901IL:
has anyone heard whether or not it is a depression yet?


No; no way to tell that far out in the Atlantic at this point; the NOAA recon will have to fly out of the Caribbean to get into the mix before we get to that point...........

Correction; unless it really puts a groove on in the next 24 and they can extrapolate that data from satt observations.
GFS 150 hrs. check out what is coming off of Africa.

Quoting 2233. wunderkidcayman:

Yay recon going out on Monday
Ha Ha Ha. don't get too excited. It could just as well be cancelled. Did you know the guy who was killed this morning ?
2250. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yay recon going out on Monday

That's assuming that 95L gets to 12.5N. It's at (Edit) 9.0N right now and still has gained very little latitude.
If 95L were a storm today the cone would be HUGE for a good reason. That being nobody has a clue to where it's headed. If stronger more northward, if weaker further south. On that note if it gets its act together in a couple days I think it heads north west and does some bit of a loop and heads directly west into, should I say the "F" word. My thoughts, 95L aint just going away, will it strengthen, probably, how much, how soon, those are the questions that will dictate where the potential storm goes. By Wednesday afternoon a lot of these questions will be answered, and any cone will be fairly reasonable. Just my thoughts.
Quoting 2246. ncstorm:



I think it will take the Southern plots
Quoting 2243. 62901IL:
has anyone heard whether or not it is a depression yet?



its not a TD yet
Quoting 2250. sar2401:

That's assuming that 95L gets to 12.5N. It's at 8.40N right now and still has gained very little latitude.


Nah, the center they'll track is at 10N 44W right about now.

Edit: corrected the horrible typos.
Sorry for being off topic but, as I'm a Scotsman, I'd just like to announce that Andy Murray has just won Wimbledon, beating Djocovic in straight sets. Carry on.
The high in 6-7 days is nowhere near as potent as it is now. As such, the GFS shows this system (not 95L, the wave over central Africa) moving at a typical speed across the MDR.

174 hours:

The GFS hardly does anything with 95L keeps it weak for all its life. That 1014 mb low over the south tip of FL. if I followed the loop correctly is 95L.



Link
Quoting 2235. RTSplayer:
This appears closed.



I am slightly educated with some of this stuff but it seems this solves the closed low argument.
Quoting 2249. stormwatcherCI:
Ha Ha Ha. don't get too excited. It could just as well be cancelled. Did you know the guy who was killed this morning ?

Yeah name unknown aka Bin Laden

Quoting 2250. sar2401:

That's assuming that 95L gets to 12.5N. It's at 8.40N right now and still has gained very little latitude.

Recon may change to accommodate the location
Convection on 95L is starting to wane a little bit but will be interesting to see what happens with d-max tomorrow morning in the early am.....If it is looking real good in the am, it could be bumped up to 60%.

Just my uneducated opinion............ :)
Quoting 2250. sar2401:

That's assuming that 95L gets to 12.5N. It's at 8.40N right now and still has gained very little latitude.


Doesn't matter how far north it is, as long as it's not over South America. Once it reaches 50W or 55W, they are able to investigate. Can't remember which longitude.



LETS HOPE NOT!
2264. Melagoo
Quoting 2258. tropicalnewbee:


I am slightly educated with some of this stuff but it seems this solves the closed low argument.


... heeeheeheeeheee heee!
2265. 62901IL
Quoting 2262. sebastianflorida:
Link

WTC??
Quoting yonzabam:
Sorry for being off topic but, as I'm a Scotsman, I'd just like to announce that Andy Murray has just won Wimbledon, beating Djocovic in straight sets. Carry on.


Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Arise Sir Andy Murray . Has a good ring to it. Don't it. HAHAHAHAHA. Olympics Gold and Wimbledon Champion.

77 years since a Brit won Wimbledon. I'm in tears, my hands nose and feet are frozen I'm shivering all over, but that was worth it.

Once again....
Goodnight all. I'm off to my warm bed.
2267. beell
Quoting 2213. weathermanwannabe:
when it comes to cyclogenesis; this is the toughest area to often predict which is why the models, and model consensus, is the best that we can do at the moment.....


Sometimes...a critical and objective evaluation of the various available sat loops helps.
2268. 62901IL
Quoting 2266. AussieStorm:


Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Arise Sir Andy Murray . Has a good ring to it. Don't it. HAHAHAHAHA. Olympics Gold and Wimbledon Champion.

77 years since a Brit won Wimbledon. I'm in tears, my hands nose and feet are frozen I'm shivering all over, but that was worth it.

Once again....
Goodnight all. I'm off to my warm bed.

Goodnite!
Anyone thinks a Special TWO may come or they wait until 2 PM?
do any of the mode runs do any thing with this wave?


Quoting 2267. beell:


Sometimes...a critical and objective evaluation of the various available sat loops helps.


Yup; many an NHC discussion (usually an upgrade) has begun with "satellite observations indicate that....."
Quoting 2255. yonzabam:
Sorry for being off topic but, as I'm a Scotsman, I'd just like to announce that Andy Murray has just won Wimbledon, beating Djocovic in straight sets. Carry on.

Yeah sorry for being off topic as well guys, as i am a scotsman as well (and a Caymanian) congrats to Andy !!!!!!!!!!
2273. Dakster
Quoting 2249. stormwatcherCI:
Ha Ha Ha. don't get too excited. It could just as well be cancelled. Did you know the guy who was killed this morning ?


The dismembered ref?
Quoting 2254. daddyjames:


Nah, the center they'll track is at 10N 44W right about now.

Edit: corrected the horrible typos.


Ooops, let me correct myself:

the center that is being tracked is at 10N 43W right now.

(gotta get the prescription for my glasses checked . . . ) ;)
95L may just end up paving the way for the monster wave over Africa.
2276. 62901IL
Quoting 2275. Hurricanes101:
95L may just end up paving the way for the monster wave over Africa.

OK
12z GFS ends the medium range with a moderate-strong tropical storm.

It does seem the islands should take notice and prepare for 95L.
Quoting 2252. wunderkidcayman:

I think it will take the Southern plots


You're right. It's going to make landfall in northern S. America by all indications. Probably Venezuela.
Quoting 2269. Tropicsweatherpr:
Anyone thinks a Special TWO may come or they wait until 2 PM?


No, not any reason for that, especially when the new TWO comes out in about an hour. Even with the rapidly spinning low level swirl seen on satellite, I'm not sure that will be enough for the NHC. They are extremely conservative with waves in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, particularly this time of the year when models and climatology don't support development.
2281. 62901IL
Quoting 2280. MississippiWx:


No, not any reason for that, especially when the new TWO comes out in about an hour. Even with the rapidly spinning low level swirl seen on satellite, I'm not sure that will be enough for the NHC. They are extremely conservative with waves in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, particularly this time of the year when models and climatology don't support development.

Do not expect a TD at the next TWO.
Quoting 2263. sebastianflorida:


Sebastian that pic gave me chills! Thinking we would get hit by that again (I am in Mims just north of Titusville). I also like the reference of the pic (I assume that was the point) of a low latitude cyclone.
Quoting 2278. rmbjoe1954:
It does seem the islands should take notice and prepare for 95L.


Believe me, we're ALWAYS watching!

-L
2284. Levi32
995mb on GFS full-resolution:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
dos any of the mode runs do any thing with this wave this off the coast?


2287. sar2401
Quoting Tazmanian:
do any of the mode runs do any thing with this wave?



Nothing I've seen.
One additional point to consider with 95L, which was a recurring problem last year with some of the peak season TS:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH</em>

25 mph is a very fast speed that is not condusive to vertical stacking..........It will need to slow down considerably in order to organize further towards depression status........Optimum speed is usually 10-12 mph.
Quoting 2273. Dakster:


The dismembered ref?
IDK what you mean but I am speaking about a guy on a bicycle that was hit with a motorcycle here this morning. Bicyclist dean and the motorcyclist injured.
Quoting 2279. interpreter:


You're right. It's going to make landfall in northern S. America by all indications. Probably Venezuela.

What NO!!!!!!!!!! IT'S NOT GONNA GO S AMERICA
2291. beell
.
2292. hydrus
If 95L stays weak, it will be more of a threat down the road. The HWRF hangs up the next wave or it curves north right after leaving the coast..All subject to change.
Quoting 2290. wunderkidcayman:

What NO!!!!!!!!!! IT'S NOT GONNA GO S AMERICA


What are you basing your opinion on? It could go in almost any direction at this point. Many of the modols don't even have it existing in 120 hours and they certainly don't develop it. As you know the models are terrible at forecasting future movement on a system with no COC to get a fix on.
Are you wishcasting?
Quoting 2259. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah name unknown aka Bin Laden


Recon may change to accommodate the location


OT - who was killed this morning?
Quoting 2282. tropicalnewbee:


Sebastian that pic gave me chills! Thinking we would get hit by that again (I am in Mims just north of Titusville). I also like the reference of the pic (I assume that was the point) of a low latitude cyclone.
Exactly my woorisome point.
95 升將在某處隨著一些東西去。
2298. Patrap
Quoting 2136. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


tragedies?


Face in palms of hands
2300. ncstorm
well this is comforting..

12z CMC
Quoting 2018. gulfbreeze:
No what would you want next change Hurricanes to 100mph?


No, just TS.
..
2303. vis0
Quoting 1752. AussieStorm:
Earth generates its own solar wind


Thank You AussieStorm for the link.

Glad to see another of my theories from the 1970s being proven. These scientist theorized it in 1992 and now can monitor it by "cluster" . This is part of what i state creates "flying" sphorbs. Sphorbs is my 1970s nickname for what many in the Equatorial (active volcanic regions) think are UFOs. The sphorbs are to the Equator(s) what Aurora Borealis is to the Pole(s). Sporbs can make weird angle turns (90 degrees to even acute).

They're also close to finding a major clue as to what i tap into as to the device i state i use to influence weather. Wish them the best as this energy will revolutionize mankind as electricity did, but i think 10 fold more.

Watch both 94L & 95L if they go INSIDE the ml-d boundaries, see the ml-d's AOI map on my blog,peace
2304. zampaz
Quoting 1988. Skyepony:

It's easy to get lost in my analytical way of thinking.
But in glancing at this image you posted it occurred to me:
As we watch from the distance of space, fluffy clouds of moisture carrying vast amounts of energy roll across our globe and I can't help but think what a beautiful planet we live on. Like the internet in an ideal society, there are no borders. No hard lines. Something we all share and marvel at is the wonder of the physics of our atmosphere and weather.
This is not only an image of a planet but also a snapshot in time of a lot of human beings.
Where were you when this photo was taken. Where was I?
Taking a nap with my cat perhaps.
Thanks for sharing Skyepony.