WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A Gallery of Tropical Influences: MJO, CCKW, TIW, and La Niña

By: Bob Henson 3:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2016

Given the quick start we’ve seen to the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season--with Tropical Storms Danielle and Colin the earliest third and fourth named storms on record--the Atlantic may not need much help working its way well through the alphabet. Even so, this moment of relative quiet is a good time to look at some factors that could help move the process along. One player now approaching is a strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) located near the International Date Line. CCKWs are large but subtle atmospheric impulses, centered on the equator, that roll eastward at 30-40 mph, with showers and thunderstorms typically along their forward flank. When an eastward-moving CCKW encounters a tropical wave in the Atlantic, the enhanced moisture and upward motion may give it a boost and help it consolidate into a tropical cyclone. For more background on CCKWs, see our post from last July, “Danny’s Leg Up: A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave.”


Figure 1. Schematic cross section through a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). Image credit: Michael Ventrice.

A CCKW worth watching
The CCKW now in the central Pacific is the strongest that expert Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company) has seen in almost a decade of researching these waves. While passing through the Indian Ocean in mid-June, this CCKW produced near-equatorial westerlies of up to 30 knots (35 mph). This CCKW will be moving into the far eastern Pacific over the next few days. Although Ventrice doubts that this CCKW will maintain its strength as it moves into this area, it still could enhance the odds of tropical cyclone development in the eastern Pacific into the first week of July, as noted in a NOAA discussion on Monday. WU member Levi Cowan (tropicaltidbits.com) observed on Monday that long-range GFS ensemble runs have been unusually consistent in developing a strong tropical cyclone during the first week of July southwest of Mexico. The 8 AM EDT Tuesday tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center gives an area of disturbed weather now along the west coast of Costa Rica a 30% chance of gradual development by next Sunday, July 3, as it moves into the eastern North Pacific well south of Mexico.

The CCKW’s influence may also extend northward to favor development in the Bay of Campeche and/or western Gulf of Mexico. Last week, a few ensemble members from long-range GEFS runs flagged this area for possible development in early July, but the location and strength of the potential tropical cyclone varied greatly from run to run and across ensemble members. The “ghost storm” has since disappeared from more recent GFS runs. (In a Facebook post last Thursday, the NWS office in Tallahassee pointed out the hazard of fixating on a single long-range solution from an ensemble.)


Figure 2. Predicted state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through mid-July (top to bottom), with the tropical Indian Ocean at left and the eastern tropical Atlantic at right. Bluish colors denote an active phase, favoring showers and thunderstorms (convection) and tropical cyclone formation; red colors show a tendency for convection to be suppressed. The graphics are based on recent conditions (top panel), ECMWF ensemble forecasts (second and third panels), and extrapolation (fourth panel). Image credit: Michael Ventrice, The Weather Company.


Another traveling feature that can influence the Atlantic is the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Typically stronger and much slower-moving than a CCKW, an active MJO phase can favor upward motion and tropical cyclone development for a week or two as its forward flank approaches an ocean basin. MJOs can reinforce or dampen the effects of a CCKW. Ventrice notes: “Usually, the MJO will act to enhance the higher-frequency waves traveling through it. So you will get stronger CCKWs within the active envelope of the MJO and vice versa.” As of last week, the nearest active MJO phase was located over the Maritime Continent, a location that typically works against tropical cyclone development in the western part of the Atlantic basin. It will be a couple of weeks until this MJO makes it far enough east to boost conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, and its strength at that point is still uncertain (see Figure 2). Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are several times more likely to form during an active MJO phase as opposed to a suppressed phase.

Looking further ahead, the smart money remains on La Niña arriving by autumn, just in time to serve as a favorable influence for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as tracked by the Niño3.4 index, plummeted from strong El Niño territory in March (departures from normal of greater than +1.5°C) to slightly below-average values in early June, which prompted NOAA to declare an end to the 2015-16 El Niño event. The shift toward La Niña should lead to reduced vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, thus favoring a greater amount of tropical cyclone development.


Figure 3. Departures from the seasonal average of sea surface height (SSH) as measured by NASA satellites on June 8, 1998, and June 9, 2016. Red and white areas denote higher-than-average SSH, which corresponds to warmer-than-average water in the uppermost part of the ocean. Although the El Niño events of 1997-98 and 2015-16 were roughly comparable in timing and strength, the transition toward La Niña was much more advanced at this point in 1998 in terms of cooler-than-average water along the equatorial Pacific. Image credit: NASA/JPL/Caltech.


Figure 4. Departures from the seasonal norm for sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific for April-June 2016. The decrease in SSTs this spring has been marked by large variability, especially in June. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Is La Niña having second thoughts?
The ongoing transition toward an expected La Niña has been a bit quirky this month. In response to a Western Hemisphere MJO passage, trade winds in early June were unusually weak over much of the eastern tropical Pacific, which runs counter to the La Niña mold. Moreover, the region of cooler-than-average SSTs along the equator is very weak and narrow compared to this point in 1998, when the last “super” El Niño transitioned to La Niña (see Figure 3). The latest weekly Niño3.4 value is -0.4°C, compared to -1.1°C at the same point in June 1998. Another oddity: the daily values of Niño3.4 spiked back above +0.5°C for nearly a week in mid-June, then sank back into negative territory in a matter of days (see Figure 4).

This last quirk may be related to a picturesque feature called tropical instability waves, or TIW. These waves often develop across the eastern equatorial Pacific in northern summer and fall, especially during the onset of La Niña, when SST contrasts are heightened between the equatorial and subtropical regions. The sharp contrast, together with shear produced by contrasting ocean currents, can lead to a line of eddy-like features straddling the equator and marching westward, with a typical separation of about 700 miles (1100 km) between each wave (see Figure 5). Overall, TIW can have a dampening effect on La Niña events, as confirmed in a high-resolution modeling study led by Yukiko Imade (University of Tokyo). In addition, Ventrice notes that the TAO/TRITON buoys that monitor SST across the tropical Pacific have an east-to-west spacing of 15° of longitude, or about 1000 miles (1600 km). According to Ventrice, the wavelength of the TIW and the buoy spacing can sometimes be similar enough to allow regional SST reports to rise and fall in unison over very short periods when the TIW are especially active, as was the case this month (see Figure 6).


Figure 5. Departures from the seasonal average in SSTs across the eastern Pacific at 18Z Friday, June 24, 2016, reveal a sequence of tropical instability waves (TIW) straddling the equator. Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.


Figure 6. For the 7-day period from 12Z June 17, 2016, to 12Z June 24, sea surface temperatures rose and fell in a distinct wavelike pattern across the eastern tropical Pacific, showing the influence of tropical instability waves. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

The bottom line
Despite its unorthodox entrance cues, La Niña is very likely still on its way. One strong sign: just below the surface of the equatorial Pacific, there is still a large area of cooler-than-normal water dominating the topmost 200 meters (660 feet). Any downwelling at the surface would more likely postpone or weaken an impending La Niña rather than quash it. Moreover, an impressive surge of trade winds now across the central/eastern Pacific is expected to force a period of enhanced upwelling in the eastern Pacific that’s likely to boost the evolving La Nina event, according to Ventrice.

Climatology also supports the switch away from El Niño. Going back to 1950, the longest continuous El Niño episode was the 15 overlapping three-month periods from March-May 1982 to May-July 1983. As of March-May 2016, we’re already up to 14 overlapping three-month periods, so if El Niño were to hang on another few months, we would be in record territory.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation continues to hum along in a strongly positive mode, with last month’s value of +2.35 the highest for any May in records going back to 1900. Strongly positive PDOs are correlated with more/stronger El Niño events and fewer/weaker La Niña events (although there is a chicken-or-egg factor here, as El Niño and La Niña events themselves feed into the PDO).

We’ll be back with a new post on Thursday.

Bob Henson


La Niña MJO CCKW Hurricane Tropical Meteorology

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. luvtogolf:

So I see the GOM is quiet this morning. What happened to the rapidly developing depression that the NHC completely missed? Lol.
The low is still there. Don't expect much of it in current conditions.....
Quoting 499. luvtogolf:

So I see the GOM is quiet this morning. What happened to the rapidly developing depression that the NHC completely missed? Lol.


I admit I jumped the gun yesterday when it looked good to my eyes but the MSC complex that pushed offshore yesterday with some decent vorticity dried up overnight. We are all amateurs on here................... So Sue Me................................ :)



503. Ed22
Quoting 499. luvtogolf:

So I see the GOM is quiet this morning. What happened to the rapidly developing depression that the NHC completely missed? Lol.
Yeahhh, they missed like they also do sometimes...
504. Ed22
Quoting 499. luvtogolf:

So I see the GOM is quiet this morning. What happened to the rapidly developing depression that the NHC completely missed? Lol.
Yeahhh, they missed like they also do sometimes...
Here is the big picture for the Atlantic, E-Pac and global tropics this morning:






506. MahFL
The tropical waves are starting to come off of Africa a little further north, and moving more due west as opposed to diving SW into the ITZ :


Quoting 506. MahFL:

The tropical waves are starting to come off of Africa a little further north, and moving more due west as opposed to diving SW into the ITZ :



Yep...Wont be long now.
Quoting 502. weathermanwannabe:



I admit I jumped the gun yesterday when it looked good to my eyes but the MSC complex that pushed offshore yesterday with some decent vorticity dried up overnight. We are all amateurs on here................... So Sue Me................................ :)






All you had to do was look at some buoy data, there are plenty around there. Pressures were rising yesterday under the complex. Lots of things look good at the midlevel when they come off shore but have zero at the surface, so once day time heating is over they die.
Quoting 489. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not budging.



Does that say 915mb?
Quoting 502. weathermanwannabe:



I admit I jumped the gun yesterday when it looked good to my eyes but the MSC complex that pushed offshore yesterday with some decent vorticity dried up overnight. We are all amateurs on here................... So Sue Me................................ :)




All of us here are amateurs.?...So where do I go for an experts analysis.?...sarc flag at full mast...:)
Quoting 507. hydrus:

Yep...Wont be long now.

still at leasr 2 1/2 to 3 weeks to go. GFS shows nothing in Atlantic up to July 16th. Maybe after the 20th we can see the Atlantic crank out a CV storm. For the next 2 weeks, the EPAC should be blowing up




Don't forget we also have these systems coming up in the EPAC. The first one could be very dtrong, and the second one is supposed to form soon after the first.
Quoting 502. weathermanwannabe:



I admit I jumped the gun yesterday when it looked good to my eyes but the MSC complex that pushed offshore yesterday with some decent vorticity dried up overnight. We are all amateurs on here................... So Sue Me................................ :)






I think that golfer dude is referring to Dawn who was insisting a depression was forming and that the NHC should go right to code red. I did have an eye on it but really wanted to see what happened overnight and it did as expected.
a suspect system like there is in the gulf can take days to get its act together
516. MahFL
Quoting 512. tigerdeF:

Don't forget we also have these systems coming up in the EPAC.


The EPAC does not interest many people in Florida, lol.
Quoting 516. MahFL:



The EPAC does not interest many people in Florida, lol.


For me, it is less the possibility of being affected by the storm (I live in boston), and more about observing them. Hurricanes are as fascinating as they are dsngerous, and they are completely unique weather systems.
Notwithstanding whether we get another Atlantic storm between now and mid-August, I think that things are pointing towards an active Cape Verde storm period where many of the waves/storms that make it intact across the Central Atlantic and into the Lesser Antilles region are going to find very favorable shear conditions and SST's closer to the US, Bahamas, and Gulf/Western Caribbean area in the peak period.  This is going to be one year to keep a very close eye on shear windows of opportunity for intensification.





Quoting 515. islander101010:

a suspect system like there is in the gulf can take days to get its act together

Are they forecasting all that GOM rain to dump on Florida?
Quoting 471. Geoboy645:

I do have to say one thing about this thing in the gulf. it's spinning the wrong way from what I can see on the sat image. it's going clockwise not counter-clockwise like it should if it were developing.

From what I see, it seems as if it is spinning clockwise. First commet ever!
Also, what is that flare up of convection by the Yucatan peninsula. If it is a wave, can it develop?
How likely is the 921 pressure hurricane shown to us by the gfs? Also, the gfs has weakened the storm from 915 to 921 at peak strength.
Looks like a crab claw
What do you guys think about the tw that's approaching the LA? That looks a lot more interesting than what's goin on in the NGOM...
Quoting 475. Ed22:

Could this be Earl in 48 hours from the low pressure system currently over the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico...


To me, it seems like it has a commatail which is signature of extra tropical cyclone. The comatail feature is pretty weak, however and the strongest convection is on the eastern side of the system in the center. It looks like half of a developing eye wall. To me it seems like a hybrid cyclone, not exactly tropical and not completely extratropical.
Quoting 520. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


From what I see, it seems as if it is spinning clockwise. First commet ever!
Also, what is that flare up of convection by the Yucatan peninsula. If it is a wave, can it develop?

Welcome to the blog.
Quoting 505. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the big picture for the Atlantic, E-Pac and global tropics this morning:









The system in the Pacific seems promising.
In the atlantic, there is a wave which will soon cross to the Pacific. This one has a large solid area of orange convectio. There is another in the middle of the atlantic. Neither of these systems have been acknowledged by the nhc.

lol
Off for the day.later
Quoting 525. ChiThom:


Welcome to the blog.

Thank you!
529. elioe
Now that the tropics are still pretty quiet, I want to show a picture that conveys the perfect weather conditions during our Midsummer festivities, taken at Fri/Sat midnight:



After a very rainy Monday, the weather is fine now again. Currently +22 C, forecast low +14 C, mostly cloudy.
Quoting 460. washingtonian115:

I don't know..Go to the north pole and ask the friendly Polar bear where to go skiing...I'm sure he would love to ask you over for dinner......

You try to contribute and people start showing their true colors over a sst map.



The problem with Florida Skiing is that there are no significant mountains. No vertical drop.

Also because of the drought, you can't get the water to make snow.


(Oh and there is the little matter that temperatures are too warm)
The nhc still says no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the next 5 days.
Atlantic
Quoting 459. MrTornadochase:


Drat! I was expecting a blizzard with 10 feet of snow in Miami now where am I going to go Skiing?!?! ;)


Elsewhere.. next question.


(.. checking now what went into my morning coffee!!!)
The nhc still says that there is no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 5 days.
Quoting 533. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The nhc still says that there is no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 5 days.


Keep us updated.
Quoting 451. Bucsboltsfan:



SST's warm month by month off Tampa peaking around 90 degrees in August. No snow for us.


Florida is the only place where I've gone in the water and eventually decided to come out to cool off!
BTW the FSU outdoor swimming pool had chillers to cool the water to a more comfortable temperature.
The eastern pacific, however has a different story. The next two, days it gives the system a 10 percent chance. In 5 days it would be 70 percent chance.
Agatha will probably form.
The Gulf of Mexico still looks somewhat interesting this morning.

Old decaying weather fronts and troughs that move offshore and linger for several days - might develop into a tropical system .. over time.

Hurricane Danny (July 1997) is one example of a tropical system that formed from the remnants of an old cold front that stalled in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Not saying this scenario will happen again in 2016, but it did happen during the last powerful 1997-98 El Nino.

The hurricane season got off to an early start in 2016, and It is almost July ... "Stand By!"
A category 5 this early in the year is possible. Hurricane ava became category 5 on the 6th of june. Blanca from last year was forecasted to become a category 5 hurricane as well.
Houston, we have a problem........................................... ..
Quoting 510. hydrus:

All of us here are amateurs.?...So where do I go for an experts analysis.?...sarc flag at full mast...:)



Oh Hydrus, after all this time i thought you knew this blog was where all the great undiscovered scientific minds were. To post something sarcastic is hurtful and rude to all the time, effort and unpaid hours, even years, yes for some even decades of meticulous research all of us that post here have put in.
Quoting 539. weathermanwannabe:

Houston, we have a problem........................................... ..


Houston has a lot of problems ...lol
Which one are you speaking of?
Quoting 540. ricderr:




Oh Hydrus, after all this time i thought you knew this blog was where all the great undiscovered scientific minds were. To post something sarcastic is hurtful and rude to all the time, effort and unpaid hours, even years, yes for some even decades of meticulous research all of us that post here have put in.
Oh Ric ... so sweetly ironic ....

lol ...

The longer it takes that MJO upswing to reach the ATL, the longer we'll wait for some action. First it was the weekend of the 4th ... now I'm seeing the 14th, and even the 21st .... are we going into the July hiatus already????

Enquiring minds, and all that ....
According to NOAA, 15 of the 16 hottest years on record since 1880 occurred during the time period from 2000 through 2015. Due to the timing of the study, headed by professor Stefan Rahmstorf, it could only factor in records up through 2014, but considering 2015 was yet another record-hot year (currently in the number 1 position, beating 2014's top spot), that makes it all the more unlikely that we're experiencing a completely natural phenomenon. And bear in mind that 2016 is still on track to beat 2015's record, adding to that number.

“Natural climate variations just can’t explain the observed recent global heat records, but manmade global warming can,” explains professor Rahmstorf.

Quoting 537. Stormwatch247:

The Gulf of Mexico still looks somewhat interesting this morning.

Old decaying weather fronts and troughs that move offshore and linger for several days - might develop into a tropical system .. over time.

Hurricane Danny (July 1997) is one example of a tropical system that formed from the remnants of an old cold front that stalled in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Not saying this scenario will happen again in 2016, but it did happen during the last powerful 1997-98 El Nino.

The hurricane season got off to an early start in 2016, and It is almost July ... "Stand By!"



I wouldn't call what drifted into the Gulf much of a cold front. Currently 80 with 87% humidity in NW Florida, nothing resembling a cold front here!
Quoting 516. MahFL:



The EPAC does not interest many people in Florida, lol.


Same here.. and so far it's way too dry in the N Leewards.


Do you remember Cleo?
So, I haven't seen anyone post this:
"Climate scientists this week expressed alarm after 'unprecedented' data showed the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream crossing the Equator."
Link

Quoting 547. CaribBoy:



Same here.. and so far it's way too dry in the N Leewards.
I'm just not interested in the east pacific because well...It doesn't interest me.The Atlantic is like a jigsaw puzzle where there is so many pieces and variables at play so the storms are fun to track.I may get banned however people can keep pretending all they want..but it is the Atlantic basin activity that keeps this blog alive in the summer because more people than just the regulars comes out of the woodwork and more people are interested.
Its been posted here and in Ricky roods entry as well. 2 days ago. But in the actual authors link.

Robert scribbler.com
Quoting 543. Patrap:

According to NOAA, 15 of the 16 hottest years on record since 1880 occurred during the time period from 2000 through 2015. Due to the timing of the study, headed by professor Stefan Rahmstorf, it could only factor in records up through 2014, but considering 2015 was yet another record-hot year (currently in the number 1 position, beating 2014's top spot), that makes it all the more unlikely that we're experiencing a completely natural phenomenon. And bear in mind that 2016 is still on track to beat 2015's record, adding to that number.

“Natural climate variations just can’t explain the observed recent global heat records, but manmade global warming can,” explains professor Rahmstorf.

Easy to get records when always adjusting global temps remember the "Climategate".Remember in the 70's these same people said ice age was coming.Give them another 20 to 30 years they will change there mind again.Just like they change the names of what it is to push the agenda.Remember the" earth is a million degrees hot"ALGORE
Still no change
Quoting 546. Patrap:


Looks like the epac again!

Quoting 526. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



The system in the Pacific seems promising.
In the atlantic, there is a wave which will soon cross to the Pacific. This one has a large solid area of orange convectio. There is another in the middle of the atlantic. Neither of these systems have been acknowledged by the nhc.
Quoting 540. ricderr:




Oh Hydrus, after all this time i thought you knew this blog was where all the great undiscovered scientific minds were. To post something sarcastic is hurtful and rude to all the time, effort and unpaid hours, even years, yes for some even decades of meticulous research all of us that post here have put in.
Greetings Ric...Yes, yes, I,ve went and done it again..I shall ban myself.... Say 10 Our Fathers....and shall repent....just as all other great minds....:)


They called this one the Great Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947.
Quoting 546. Patrap:




Some curious energy that exited the Yucatan into the Gulf, wonder if it could join up with the mess in the Northern Gulf.
558. elioe
Quoting 516. MahFL:



The EPAC does not interest many people in Florida, lol.


For a Finnish person interested in tropical cyclones (like me), every basin is as meaningful. Of course, the more peculiar a storm is, the more interesting. Eastern Pacific storms are rarely special is that manner, but they're still something. Sometimes Atlantic storms can get interesting due to their remnants getting here, but it's rare. Last I remember was Katia.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 301035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across
the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to
gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 06N28W to 13N32W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 25W-34W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the Monsoon
Trough region. As a result...scattered moderate convection is
confined within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N23W to
04N32W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N54W to 16N58W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 52W-60W.
No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 05N71W to 15N71W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North
Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 30N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is across Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia
from 02N-10N between 64W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
09N20W to 05N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N30W to 04N35W to 10N47W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the axis between 18W-
39W...and from 09N-13N between 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with a broad base dipping
to 30N. The west-southwesterly flow aloft and maximum diffluence
south of the troughing is supporting weak surface troughing
extending from the Florida panhandle to coastal Louisiana and
across the NW Gulf waters to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi
this morning. Given the favorable lifting dynamics aloft and
surface boundary in place...widely scattered showers are
occurring generally N of a line from the Florida Big Bend region
near 30N84W to 26N90W to 27N95W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge
axis extends across the southern Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf
with generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds
expected through Thursday as ridge axis remains nearly stationary.
The frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary
through the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridging extends over the western Caribbean W of
78W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment aloft
supporting widely scattered showers and tstms generally S of 17N
between 81W-89W...including inland portions of Central America.
The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very
broad troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the
Turks and Caicos Islands near 22N71W supporting a few isolated
showers across Hispaniola this morning. In addition...a tropical
wave along 71W is producing isolated showers across the central
Caribbean in the vicinity of 15N70W. The wave is expected to move
west with increased precipitation probabilities during the next
few days for the south-central and southwestern waters of the
basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh trades prevail across
much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 17N
between 64W- 80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across
the central Caribbean. Little change is expected during the next
24 to 36 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently...isolated showers continue this morning. Southwesterly
flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low
is centered north of the island near 22N71W. This environment
along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote
isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Weak frontal troughing is analyzed across the SE CONUS and
portions of the far NW Atlc discussion waters providing focus for
isolated showers and tstms generally W of a line from 32N73W to
27N80W. Surface ridging is expected to build west during the next
12 to 24 hours with most of the convective shower activity moving
north of the area. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored on a 1035 mb high centered
NW of the Azores near 41N38W.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

Trades in western Carib too high for anything to take shape by the way it feels outside today clouds are zipping along
Quoting 520. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


From what I see, it seems as if it is spinning clockwise. First commet ever!
Also, what is that flare up of convection by the Yucatan peninsula. If it is a wave, can it develop?
Welcome to the blog dude. I'm Andre Brooks and if you need anything, just ask and have fun and abide to the rules.
Quoting 556. HurriHistory:



They called this one the Great Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947.


It make Landfall closer to Boca Raton, but Boca back then was a small town of less than 1,000 people, so I suppose since Ft. Lauderdale was the closest major city to landfall, they just called it that.
Quoting 556. HurriHistory:



They called this one the Great Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947.
That was big and bad. Cannot swear to it, but I believe my Grandfather flew into that one when he was with the HH...It had the ominous sounding name " George ".....This of course before the official naming lists.
Quoting 540. ricderr:




Oh Hydrus, after all this time i thought you knew this blog was where all the great undiscovered scientific minds were. To post something sarcastic is hurtful and rude to all the time, effort and unpaid hours, even years, yes for some even decades of meticulous research all of us that post here have put in.


I feel like I havnt seen you post in ages! Good to see you again.

Meanwhile, our lawns are starting to turn brown if not watered.. I had about 30% of my newly planted marigolds die off while i was away. Bring the rain, please!
Quoting 539. weathermanwannabe:

Houston, we have a problem........................................... ..



If you watch the clip carefully, I think he actually says " Houston, we've HAD a problem" and that would also be true here as we clearly have and have had LOL
Link
The link to the 180hr forecast by the gfs.
Quoting 565. K8eCane:




If you watch the clip carefully, I think he actually says " Houston, we've HAD a problem" and that would also be true here as we clearly have and have had LOL


lol; no problem here in Tallahassee with the Gulf disturbance; all the rain here/headed my way regardless of no development.................The Hydrangea bushes in the yard are very happy at the moment:

Southeast sector loop

A remarkably concentric cyclone at the 850 mb level down at about 140 W and 45 S

Link

It's entirely at the lower levels though; 500 mb and up there are crosswinds
Quoting 567. weathermanwannabe:



lol; no problem here in Tallahassee with the Gulf disturbance; all the rain here/headed my way regardless of no development.................The Hydrangea bushes in the yard are very happy at the moment:

Southeast sector loop




I really really hope we don't get any here in ILM for next couple days anyway. My mower is broken and the guy that mows is running late! I do not like to let my grass get too high because of....my PHOBIA of a snake.
This below from the Tropical Atlantic Weather discussion sucks, means the chances of rain in the Fort Walton Beach area are going to remain high through the 4th of July weekend, not sure if I'll get out on the boat this weekend or not!

From Tropical Weather Discussion - The frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary
through the remainder of the week.
Quoting 533. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The nhc still says that there is no tropical cyclone formation expected in the next 5 days.
Dyslexia.?
Quoting 561. HurricaneAndre:

Welcome to the blog dude. I'm Andre Brooks and if you need anything, just ask and have fun and abide to the rules.

Ok!
Quoting 572. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Ok!


are you JFV?
Quoting 571. hydrus:

Dyslexia.?

No, why do you think so?
Quoting 573. Tazmanian:



are you JFV?

Who is jfv?
Quoting 572. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Ok!

Also, how do you copy and paste an image?
Quoting 575. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Who is jfv?



never mind your not him


welcome too the blog then
Quoting 576. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Also, how do you copy and paste an image?
Well right click the image, and then you click the copy option. Then on the WU site in your comment, go to the image icon and click that and then right click in the window that appears and then click paste. Then just click post comment
Arctic Sea Ice Blog 2016 update 3: crunch time
Neven - June 30.

The mysterious "cold blob" in the North Atlantic Ocean is starting to give up its secrets
Chris Mooney for The Washington Post - June 30.
"So it is fair to say that although there are many intriguing (and troubling) ideas out there, scientists are not in full agreement about what is going on in the North Atlantic Ocean. The good news, though, is that with ever-increasing scientific interest in ocean occurrences on both sides of Greenland, we can expect more and more research to help sort all of this out."

Did The Washington Post Just Violate Its Own Policy On Climate Science-Denying Letters?
Mediamatters.org - June 30.
hello guys
whats going on

btw who is the new guy
Quoting 579. HurricaneAndre:

Well right click the image, and then you click the copy option. Then on the WU site in your comment, go to the image icon and click that and then right click in the window that appears and then click paste. Then just click post comment

I am unable to copy the image.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 576. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Also, how do you copy and paste an image?


If you are referring to #566, you must clear the link box before you put anything in there or it won't work.
You also need to remove any "s" if it is "https," hope that helps....
Quoting 581. wunderkidcayman:

hello guys
whats going on

btw who is the new guy
He might be JFV
Quoting 574. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


No, why do you think so?
Good morning. Because you have nhc instead of NHC, and your blog handle all typed in upper case. It is one of the characteristics that indicates a form of dyslexia.
Quoting 508. VAbeachhurricanes:



All you had to do was look at some buoy data, there are plenty around there. Pressures were rising yesterday under the complex. Lots of things look good at the midlevel when they come off shore but have zero at the surface, so once day time heating is over they die.
yep i posted the pressures on yesterday
Quoting 462. HurricaneFan:

How many major hurricanes do you expect to see in the Atlantic this year?
A. 0
B. 1 or 2
C. 3 or 4
D. 5 or 6
E. More than 6


D.


20-9-5
Quoting 522. washingtonian115:

Looks like a crab claw

starting to get worried, when august gets here look at those loop currents in the Gulf. and its only the end of June. Thats a sign of preparedness in sight. Thank God I have been saving my money the last couple of months.
Quoting 551. Patrap:

Its been posted here and in Ricky roods entry as well. 2 days ago. But in the actual authors link.

Robert scribbler.com


Sorry, I missed it.
No sweat as here it is what we do best....

Sharing.

The link to the 180hr forecast created by the gfs.
Quoting 584. PedleyCA:



If you are referring to #566, you must clear the link box before you put anything in there or it won't work.
You also need to remove any "s" if it is "https," hope that helps....

Thank you !
If you guys didnt know by now we have a NEW BLOG
Quoting 556. HurriHistory:



They called this one the Great Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947.


My dad told me a story years ago about a great hurricane that came in the early to mid part of the 1900's that supposedly flooded so bad he said you could take a canoe from Ft Lauderdale to Tampa out alligator alley. I thought maybe lake Okeechobee had breached but I couldn't find any info on it. Anyone have an idea of what storm this might have been or is this just some story the ole' man made up for us kids? It always stuck with me so I'm curious to know :D