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A few minor threat areas for the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on October 11, 2007

A surface circulation has developed near 30N, 53W, about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This system has been labeled Invest 96L by NHC this morning. Some impressive heavy thunderstorms have built on the northeast side of the low. Wind shear is a marginal 15-20 knots, and is expected to rise to 25-35 knots tonight, so 96L has only about 12 hours to become a tropical depression before wind shear tears it apart.

The "sleeping giant" Yucatan low
A large low pressure system that moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Monday continues to bring heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. This low was labeled "94L" by NHC, but is no longer being tracked. The low crossed the Yucatan Wednesday and reached the edge of the Gulf of Mexico, where it began pulling in Gulf moisture and firing up some heavy thunderstorms. However, the low turned south before it could fully emerge into the Gulf, inland just west of the Guatemala/Mexico border. If it emerges into the Pacific Ocean, it may intensify enough to trigger additional heavy rains over the Pacific shores of Guatemela and Mexico. The low won't have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression, I expect. Steering currents are such that the low will perform a loop back into the Western Caribbean near Belize on Saturday. If the low still has some spin at that time, it could develop into a tropical depression and bring another round of heavy rain to the Yucatan Peninsula.


Figure 1. Today's lineup of tropical disturbances to watch.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A surface trough of low pressure is bringing disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahama Islands. Some of the computer models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in the Bahamas on Friday, then move rapidly northeastward to Bermuda. This is likely to be an extratropical storm, but could bring wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rain to Bermuda on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Bonedog
yea the front is still in GA but heading south

The front stalled just north of Palm Beach. Supposed to push through by tomorrow.
DUE TO DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US IS LIMITING
TO LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

Anybody understand what this means?

Supposed to push through today too so, we'll see, lol. Can't wait for the little break in humidity.
Subsident Air Baha. Dry sinking air prevents lift which prevents thunderstorms. Dry frontal boundry is what that means.
1006. Bonedog
Ah ok I see it now. I was just looking at the WV loops thats why i thoughht the froint was in GA. when I looked at a wider image I can see the line north of PB stretching into the Gulf. There is a little bit of clouds attached. Like a string of pearls. My bad. Still early, I need more coffee and a towel to dry off with.
1000. jphurricane2006 12:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
it hasnt passed you baha, but its passed us here in Central Florida lol


Yeah. I was saying even before I looked at the maps I knew it wasn't here yet because the local air mass is still too moist and warm.

At this time of year we get stormy weather from both polar and tropical waves. It's all rain in the end, but the air has a different quality when the wave is tropical - kinda smothering.
<em>weather: Where area are you in? It's 72 here with 45% humidity. But we are on the water so it's always a little warmer near the coast. Time to break out the turtle neck tank tops. LOL

Weathers4me....I am up near Gainesville and it is 53 but the humidity is 80% of course I am a FLORIDA girl so I am still in my flip flops with my sweatshirt!
Bonedog. That is the secondary front pushing through. Basically another shot of drier air with dewpoints behind that in the 40's.
The most exciting thing I see this morning is the cold front heading my way.We need a break down here.
1011. beell
The front-based on Temp/Dew Point spreads
Link
TCW, I understand the subsidence; I just don't understand the SENTENCE lol.

So this should really read something like:

DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US IS LIMITING
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

Basically supposed to say there isn't much rain coming through with this front, right?
Good morning all.

Taking a look at the latest satellite imagery, it would seem to me as if ex-94L may be emerging back into the NW Caribbean this morning. I do not know if that is what you are seeing, but keep in mind, I just woke up about 10 minutes ago.

Anyways, TD 15, in my opinion, will never get a name since a cold front will take care of it. I just took a look at the 850mb Vorticity Maps and there seems to be strong vorticity around 28N and 75W. I took a look again at satellite imagery and I do indeed see some circulation in this general area. Will be interesting to watch since there is abundant convection.

It seems like our Caribbean tropical wave could be the remnants of Invest 91L and I have seen some circulation on satellite imagery, but not vert strong. Things could get interesting if this wave hits the surface trough over Jamaica and Cuba. It could spawn something.

Anyways, those are my observations on the tropics. Thoughts?
1014. Bonedog
thanks 03. I figured it was something. You dont have that drastic a line on WV without it being something
Morning cchs,

Good observations, all of them, I say. Right now the Xs are the ones I'm eying, since they're the ones with greatest potential to affect land.

Also the forecast is currently for the area NE of the Bahamas to be subtropical at best, but more likely extratropical.
Waking up to this nice 55 degree weather in northern florida is nice! Tired of the heat


Looks like the low that was over the Great Lakes is moving offshore this morning. On this WV image the two fronts are pretty distinct.
All those people just a few miles north enjoying that cold front,and here we are in So. Florida with the high around 90 and High humidity.Not fair!!!
Patriots - Agree!
Way to humid for Oct.

Bring on that front
1020. Bonedog
actually Baha the Low off the coast formed last night and brought very bad weather to the Tri-State area. The Great Lakes Low is actually disapating.
well the Cuba Blob seems to have broken up.
Whats up with the convection moving East off the Y?
Agree patriots! We'll have to wait until tomorrow for ours.

Morning Bob, long time no see! How's the cool air up there. Give us southies a little taste!
1023. msphar
13 days since the last named storm, October is not panning out as a second September in spite of La Nina conditions. NHC grasping at some weak invests, seems to be the general theme this year. Maybe the month will be backend loaded. Was walking in day old snow yesterday, hard to keep tropical weather in focus when struggling to stay warm.
Good Morning Folks...Not much to add to this mornings discussions (agree with most observations) except to add that frontal remnants are the main source of systems this late in the season, and, agree that the pretty impressive "cold" front that came through the South will need to dissipate some so the shear can drop to allow significant development from any viable remnants left behind.....Don't know if the models are predicting anything.....
...the cold front is north of palm beach and not expected to make it much further south it should start to align itself north,south with the bottom 10% returning as a warm front as soon as tomorrow ..
Thanks for the info, Bone. I don't usually read about stuff that far north and was going on just an eyeballing of the WV loop.
I live in sarasota on the west coast of FL, when i awoke this morning , the dew point has dropped cosiderably since last night ,nice and the nice dry air makes 70 degree's feel wonderful(nicest morning since april)....not supposed to last long dew points back up in day
You are saying the cold front will not make it past West Palm?That is just wrong!
1029. Bonedog
LOL Fujiwara effect mentioned in my local forcast

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...FEATURING TWO CLOSED UPPER
LOWS...ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND THE
OTHER OVER EASTERN CANADA...WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE VORTEX TO
THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COASTAL UPPER LOW WILL MORE OR
LESS FUJIWARA ABOUT THE PARENT VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA...TAKING
IT AND THE SFC LOW OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND THIS MORNING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS EVENING.


First time I have heard that in my forcast
Looks like the Florida crowd is "In the House" this morning enjoying the cooler and beautiful weather for us today.....Seems like the end of the season to me....Got to start getting the kids ready for Halloween (and they might need a sweater when they go out)...........
1031. Bonedog
no problem Baha. We got wild weather from all that yesterday. We actually had tornado warnings issued over Long Island and 2 reports of water spouts over the Atlantic ocean.
pats2007 I't looks like you might have to wait a couple more weeks before you get your first real frontal passage..
Thanks for the good news!yuk
033. jphurricane2006 8:07 AM EST on October 12, 2007
cold fronts and cooler weather are not a sign of the end of a hurricane season


I know JP.......I meant to say the "latter half?" of the season......LOL
oh and you can come visit Sarasota for some cooler weather anytime you want pats2007 LOL
1040. Bonedog
Ok wow my local met offices are getting wacky with their wordings...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MUCH OF OUR AREA A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY (WHEN ISN`T IT NOW,
EH?),


what are they watching? Canadian Bacon? EH?
1041. Bonedog
no JP I live in NJ
.. hey bonedog I lived in Jersey City myself from 98-2002, alot of cool people , grew up in connecticut though...
hey folks! 46 degrees in B-lo! thats 40 less than last week... its cooling down the lakes and bringing us spotty showers and low clouds. Fall is here!
remember Flloyd??
that low is over your head, bonedog!
1048. Bonedog
JP I once heard it stated like this...

NJ isnt a state. Its a suburb of NY and Pennsylvania. The eastern and central belong to NYC, south belongs to Philly and the north and western belong to PA. LOL
Good Morning all. It feel good here in Mobile,Al I am in my shorts and t-shirt and know my hubby's a different story he's got his pants,shirt and sweatshirt on. I snikered at him. You gotta know him he is very cold natured. But it feel great to me.
Sheri
1050. Bonedog
Yea I know Lake. Looking out the window a seeing some wierd cloud formations LOL
I see what appears to be the remains of 94L throwing convection in the EPac, The frontal boundary is pretty plain to see in the SE CONUS; the trough spawning the convection in the Central Carib is lifting out NE as it was forecast to do, and the convection in lesser Antilles is less spectacular than yesterday. EUMETSAT imagery shows less activity the ECATL, aside from what appears to be Invest 97L(!) in the Canaries(?) and TD 15 doing a strip tease as it moves NE...shear values in the CATL are up, and in the GOMEX they're getting very high GOMEX Shear, in the 30knts range...a slow day in the tropics, so far; the only areas of concern, that I can see are the SECarib and the WCarib...with the possibility of some further development of 97L. On the other hand, we have TSLingling in the CPac...

Wow, did I just do an update?
1054. Bonedog
I would say

New Yorserislannyia
Good Morning everyone,,,,,,,,

What a beautiful sunny day......temps here in orlando are down just a few degrees but the humidity is gone for now.....Its 72 with 60% humidity.....which is not bad...slight wind out of the NNE...We are in for a nice weekend...

Does anyone see anything popping up in the models out of the caribbean in the next week? That is the usual breeding ground for this time of year....
1056. Bonedog
good job Floodman. Great update gave you a + for it.
*blush* Gawrsh, thanks Bone
...there's a weak broad area of low pressure already in the eastpac..been there since last night my local news guy pointed it out I think 94L is still in guat.
1059. Bonedog
LOL Floodman
Do You see a giant "L" floating above you, bonedog?
1058. stillwaiting 1:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
...there's a weak broad area of low pressure already in the wpac..been there since last night my local news guy pointed it out I think 94L is still in guat.



You're right, stillwaiting, I think...it's a little muddy on the charts and hard to tell where on ends and the other starts...the actual energy appears to be 94L, but there's a smaller area of low pressure spawned by 94 or moving into it...but there is a deeper low(slightly) in CAM, that is most likely 94
Looking at satellite imagery, I believe former Invest 94L has made it back out into the NW Caribbean. Anyone else seeing this? It could make for an interesting situation with the approaching Caribbean wave and the surface trough interacting with each other.
Enough bragging from the people to the north.LOL
Yep, Bone should be seeing the "big red L" if he looks out the window...
1067. Bonedog
hahaha Lake thats a good one :) No but it looks like I am in an eye. Clouds from the deck all the way up but I have blue sky overhead with litle whispy cirrus clouds way up there. Kinda cool looking. Guess its the closest I can get to seeing an eye without actually being in a cane
Im sorry........
..looks like no shows in town for a couple days unless mother of nature throws us a surprise bone!!
1065. jphurricane2006 1:31 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
the low in the EPAC is not 94L, you can clearly see the circulation of 94L still over Guatamela



Hmmm...that EPac low is firing a little convection this morning...
Hey bonedog, There's mixed frozen precip over some areas of Wisconsin and Michigan...any chance that will make it to b-lo?
1074. Bonedog
wow nice Lake Effect bands setting up over NY state. Just rain but still cool looking
Link
errr..I mean Minn. not Mich.
You bet, JP...I laughed a good half hour over that one; too good not to recycle!
1078. Bonedog
still waiting no. I am at work and dont have my camera with me :( as far as quiet weather yea I dont see anything except cool temps at night and the possiblity of frost if radiational cooling happens.

Lake I am looking at the latest matricies now. Give me a few and i will be able to better determine what if any mix precip the snow band regions will see
yeah, the winds from the NNW so we get the Ontario weather...right now the Niagara penninsula is protecting us from too much, but there are dark lake effect clouds passing through with sunlight peeking through...
Anyone see the spin at 9N40W? Moving slightly N of due W, and throwing a bit of convection...
1081. Bonedog
LOL JP I remeber one of the invests this year made an L formation in the clouds on the sat loops remeber?
Ok bonedog ..thanks anywho!
Well folks....I'm off for the rest of the day (work issues) so have a Great Weekend and enjoy the Football games this weekend..... (Pats v. Cowboys?)....
1084. Bonedog
see something but below 10N corriolus doesnt have much influence. Watch if it breaks the 10 parallel
Will that area E of the Yucatan be swept away along the forntal boundry or will it get left behind?
1086. Bonedog
No problem Still waiting. I am hoping for a new camera for my birthday if my wife is nice to me LOL then I can keep my old one in the truck and snap weather pics and other cool things.
Low shear (5 knts), though there appears to be a TUTT north of the Antilles at 60W or so...this one needs to be watched?
1089. Bonedog
weathers I think left behind I dont think the front will get that low
Yep Bone, the one at 9N40W?
anyone with thoughts on invest 97?
Link
1094. Bonedog
thats the one Flood
1095. Bonedog
warning: this is a joke

OMG!!! Its Forming AN EYE

Good Morning everyone....just look at Satel. and is 94L about to exit into the Carrib again.
ugh..with weather change comes germs! cant stop sneezing!
Looks like the only possibilities for any action will be south florida....If indeed that area in the western caribbean does anything, it could move north and then NE..........I have got my cam-corder ready to go. It would be very nice to get some wind and rain....Obviously not to windy......that is the politically correct thing to say for a stormchaser
In other words. No need to muster the Cantore? LOL
1101. Bonedog
weatherboy want wind? come up here today 25 to 30 gusting to 40
Haha, Bonedog, I wished the Finnish mets would word their forecasts like that. Oh, and thanks for adding me to your notification list.

The European weather forecast does not expect 97 to become a threatening storm. I checked the French maritime bulletin, the Spanish Meteorogical Institute and the Alert Page for severe weather meteoalarm.eu. The only warning in the area is a "Yellow Alert" for heavy rain. (Yellow means "The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.")

The Greenland low brings a thunderstorm warning for Iceland.
On the map of Europe on meteoalarm.eu you also find a moderate snow warning for Finland and indeed, we had the first snow in Southern Finland this morning! Here at the coast it was still rain but just about 50 miles inland it turned into snow. Snow coverage in Finland on October 12th
the rest of hurricane season is RIP and bust its done overe with wind shear has took overe has it dos this time of year
RIP on 97L
1102. taistelutipu 1:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Haha, Bonedog, I wished the Finnish mets would word their forecasts like that. Oh, and thanks for adding me to your notification list.

The European weather forecast does not expect 97 to become a threatening storm. I checked the French maritime bulletin, the Spanish Meteorogical Institute and the Alert Page for severe weather meteoalarm.eu. The only warning in the area is a "Yellow Alert" for heavy rain. (Yellow means "The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.")

The Greenland low brings a thunderstorm warning for Iceland.
On the map of Europe on meteoalarm.eu you also find a moderate snow warning for Finland and indeed, we had the first snow in Southern Finland this morning! Here at the coast it was still rain but just about 50 miles inland it turned into snow. Snow coverage in Finland on October 12th



We get the best in here...thanks, taistelutipu!
Warm wind.......that comes from the skies of mother nature.....i added that to not leave myself open for jokes if you know what i mean
I have to say,it does not appear that anything will affect the U.S. anytime soon.Maybe a fish spinner or two.
1108. Bonedog
taistelutipu the wording this morning was very wierd. Dont ever remember wording like that. Your Welcome about the notification email. Hopefully it will give you a few days lead time of an approaching system.

I wish American weather services used advisories the way the EU does. It would help folks stay abreast of the weather. Telling someone partly cloudy with 30% chance of rain doesnt do much. That 30% could be severe thunderstorms with hail and tornados. The average person wouldn't knwo that unless the local mets mentioned it.
1106. weatherboyfsu 9:58 AM EDT on October 12, 2007

Weatherboy
I cannot believe FSU lost that game last nite after nearly dominating the 1st half.
I dont want to talk about it.....I am extremely disappointed
Hey Floodman,
I have also noticed that spin at 9N, 40W. Interesting feature to watch since convection seems to be increasing somewhat.
I know that this is a weather site......but those officials in the first half appeared to be from another planet.....they sucked........
If I can't talk football,than you guys can't.lol
Good morning patriots2007!!! Im trying to push some of this refreshing air down your way......lol
1115. Bonedog
amazing. I just checked the storm reports for yesterday only one wind report of a downed tree. No mention of the 2 water spouts. Guess noone reported it to the local met office and apperently they dont watch the local news
yeah no football talk... sore spot here in B-lo. Now Hockey..anyone wanna talk about that...thats fine! :)
1113. patriots2007 10:02 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
If I can't talk football,than you guys can't.lol


First off Patriot, your a girl and there is no crying in football and second your a damb Patriot fan......lol
Hi JP
SABRES!!!!!
Tampa -
OUCH....Go easy on the Pats....They are GOOD!
1119. jphurricane2006 10:06 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
sounds good to me LakeShadow

who is your team?


The 3-0 TampaBay Lightning are looking real strong after just 3 games tho.
Shear in the GOMEX is forecast to relax at 84 hours or so, and continue to become more favorable though the end of the forecast period; the Carib will be favorable (5-15 knt shear) throughout the period, and relaxing to 5 knts at about the same time as the GOMEX...the MJO upturn will be in place throughout the period, allowing for ease of convection...SSTs are still high.

I'll agree that long track CV storms are pretty much RIP now, but situational and Carib development is still a distinct possibility. Lets talk again about the season being over when it's over...not necessarily the 30th of November, but certainly not the 12th of October
Looks like the sleeping giant is getting pulled out of the yuctan into to E carib and starting to fire.
1122. NoNamePub 10:08 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
Tampa -
OUCH....Go easy on the Pats....They are GOOD!


Didn't you hear, their CHEATERS..........lol
well said Floodman.
1111. cchsweatherman 2:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Hey Floodman,
I have also noticed that spin at 9N, 40W. Interesting feature to watch since convection seems to be increasing somewhat.



Seems pretty vigorous for a sub-Coriolis feature, you think? That having been said though, most sources indicate that the line is 5N or S, but you normally don't see a tightening spin until the "magic" 10N is crossed...
I am crazy about football, but those that have never been to a Hockey game have no idea what they are missing.
Sabres had a tough time w/ the islanders the first 2 games, but they had a great shut out last night against the thrashers...6-0
I do have to say,should be a GREAT game this Sunday.Cowgirls vs. The all mighty Pats
1134. NEwxguy
Gmornig,looks like the central and eastern atlantic are having a busier tropical season then we are.
1128. TampaSpin 2:11 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
well said Floodman.



Thanks, Tampa!
JP if theirs a team you wanna see, let me know. Man my kids are so hooked on Hockey it is unreal...went to nearly 20 games last year.
where do you see that at jphurricane2006?
1139. Bonedog
Lake I just got done looking at all the matricies. The lake effect regions could possibly see some wet mix above 1800 feet once the wind shifts around to the west and has more time over the long fetch of the lakes.
The all mighty Pats??????

Geez, Indy and the Boys are also 5-0 (without cheating, I might add); and the Pats, I seem to recall, aren't even the defending AFC champs. So, I think declaring them "almighty" is a bit of a stretch.

I've never seen such a hype machine, with discussion about a team going 16-0 from the start of the season.
I'm originally from St Louis, TampaSpin...a Blues fan for the most part, but lord I can't watch hockey on TV...you have to be at the game, close to the glass. Ahhh (waxing nostalgic), I remember the old St Louis Arena...
this just in lanina is very much alive and hurricane season for ythis year has been extenned stay tuned
Here in florida........a great weekend to head to the beach......especially on the west coast.......I think that i might do that........
JP
The Magic are the only game in town, we need to support them, maybe when we get the new arena they can lure a Hockey team. Bye the way the Magic look good this year.
1141. jphurricane2006 10:17 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
would love to see Tampa and the Isles one time this year


I will check when they are in town and get some tickets if it meets your schedule....i have a means of usually getting free ones at floor level behind the Goal.
Taz is on a RIP again, lol
It's an honor,to even play the New England Patriots.
1150. patriots2007 2:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
It's an honor,to even play the New England Patriots.



OMG, she's changing her avatar...
I went to the magic game wednesday against charlotte and they look quick......that new star - rashard lewis i believe twisted his ankle........

Ok back to the weather....you guys keep getting off on a tangent
1153. sails1
Does anyone think that there will be some development in the two areas of the Caribean?
1150. patriots2007 10:22 AM EDT on October 12, 2007
It's an honor,to even play the New England Patriots.

Give me a break.....

Woman complained my avitar was to sexy,admin took it off.Do you believe that?
Nahhhh.....her boyfriend may be lurking....
IDK, Floodman; I kinda liked her hand-held shot for her avatar.
Hello Dr. Mickey.....
The Magic will be tuff this year. They will win their division and maybe the conference.
Hey there!
No Superstar! Howard is the best center in the league IMHO With Lewis that can put up 30pts on any given night Watch out Eastern Conferance.
Just look at the trend with the Patriots...they would come out the 2nd half and it was like they knew everything the other team was doing.....well they did....lol
1129. Floodman 2:12 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
1111. cchsweatherman 2:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Hey Floodman,
I have also noticed that spin at 9N, 40W. Interesting feature to watch since convection seems to be increasing somewhat.



Seems pretty vigorous for a sub-Coriolis feature, you think? That having been said though, most sources indicate that the line is 5N or S, but you normally don't see a tightening spin until the "magic" 10N is crossed...

Good point there Floodman. That is true that you do not usually see a tightening spin until that line, but again. Nature never follows patterns and will do whatever it wishes.
Morning all. Sooo, a secondary low forming just east of the Yucatan, ehhh?
1168. BigFork
If anyone thinks that the pic of Patriots2007 is really her, you are way off base.
1155. patriots2007 2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Woman complained my avitar was to sexy,admin took it off.Do you believe that?



To each their own; I disagree with that assessment, and for pete's sake you've had that avatar up since the blog change...
1158. DrMickey 2:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
IDK, Floodman; I kinda liked her hand-held shot for her avatar.



Dirty Ol' Dude LOL
Wow,there are some catty woman in here now!
1168. BigFork 2:29 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
If anyone thinks that the pic of Patriots2007 is really her, you are way off base.



How does that make any difference? I ask you?
if it develops where will the yucatan blob go ?
1174. Bonedog
stormy steering is real weak down there right now so probably just wander around
Floodman To each their own; I disagree with that assessment, and for pete's sake you've had that avatar up since the blog change...
Floodman i think you would agree, the world would be better if we all wore no clothes....lol
...1171. patriots2007 2:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Wow,there are some catty woman in here now!


Well, I suppose they'll take mine down soon, as it encourages, IDK, something unsavory, I'm sure
1177. BigFork
It doesn't. My daughter pointed it out to me that is was a picture of some girl from a Disney movie that was caught sending nude pics to a boyfriend.
I grew up in New England and have been a Pats/Sox fan since birth... For those in the same boat, you learn to be extremely humble... The 80's and 90's were rough times. I would never make any bold predictions, nor would a show a shred of arrogance. I will say that we have a solid football team this year and a good chance to go deep in the playoffs. The only thing I'm arrogant about is my fandom, it is unwavering... as many true New Englandas know all about.
Yea I am a little worried about Nelson and Arroyal, but then again we have Ariza and Redick which are going to be huge suprise
1182. Bonedog
NEW BLOG
Is this myspace or a weather blog? I knew this new format would cause issues...
Thanks Bonedog, I' looking forward to your upcoming reports on Nor'Easters. I guess that the EU weather forecast does monitor the systems already when they are on the other side of the Atlantic, but they usually don't issue public advisories before the system is most likely to affect Europe.
For people who are not interested in meteorology it would be quite confusing and maybe even scary when they get confronted with developing systems far away with an uncertain probability to cross the ocean. But for hobby mets it's valuable information.
On TV the weather forecast normally begins with the satellite picture of Europe and the East Atlantic so as soon as a dangerous low is approaching also the ordinary people are informed about it. Then the nationwide forecast follows with information about locally dangerous weather. I can speak at least for German, Belgian and Finnish TV forecasts because I have lived in each of these countries.

The warning scale green - yellow - orange - red is in use all over Europe, 22 meteorological institutes (this time all the syllables on board, last time the "lo" went overboard *lol*) collaborate on the EUMETNET.

Floodman, this is one of the best blogs on weather thanks to you and all the other specialists for tropical weather in here :) . The whole summer I learned so much about it what I could not have done here in Finland. Since we never get affected by tropical storms here they are mostly an unknown phenomenon to people.
1187. NEwxguy
busy today here at work,popping in and out to see if anything is cooking,but had to comment on the patriots comments (sorry to the tropical chat)if people think a little bit of camera work really won them the superbowls you abviously don't understand the complexity of the game.I agree it was a low point of the team,I as a fan was embarrassed by it,but please don't take away from the hard work of the ownership to turn things around and the hard work of the staff and team.The games are won on the field,and videos while the game is going on,there just isn't enough time to use the video for the current game,its for the game down the road.Now back to your local tropical weather blog
1139. Bonedog 2:17 PM GMT on October 12, 2007
Lake I just got done looking at all the matricies. The lake effect regions could possibly see some wet mix above 1800 feet once the wind shifts around to the west and has more time over the long fetch of the lakes.

Ok, thanks! local weatherdudes are forecasting that as well...they arent always correct...almost never.

Floodman, one man's "unsavory" is another's sacred ritual.... :o)
Jerry is holy to me.
Good morning, all.



...though still looking fairly impressive on visible, it's about to get a lil chilly for TD15. If it's going to claim "Noel" then it'll need to do it soon. QS missed.

...speaking of chilly, seemed like it was below freezing here this morning, dipped into the 40's.

...as for the rest of the TA, 9n,40w may have some rotation, but shear is in front of it, too and increasing (if I read shear clearly this morning - still one eye open only); then, the Caribbean has shear, and the GOM - well, the GOM is a streak of Mariah! 97L, prolly just blow a lil dust back towards the continent.

...season is still not over! Still too early to throw in the towel just yet!
1191. icmoore
Good morning , on a different note just went to reeldrlaura there are a couple of pictures of patrap in the hospital.One said he was feeling better last night.