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A few areas of disturbed weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:14 PM GMT on July 06, 2006

The area of disturbed weather over South Florida has weakened and is no longer a threat. An associated area of disturbed weather is building off the East Coast of Florida, and has some potential for development over the next two days as it heads north towards the Carolinas. Computer models continue to show development of a weak tropical or subtropical system Friday night or Saturday south of the Carolinas. This system would then get swept up the coast this weekend, possibly bringing strong winds to Cape Hatteras. The storm would continue moving up the coast, passing several hundred miles east of Cape Cod on Sunday night. The chances of this system becoming a hurricane are very low.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida waters.

We will need to watch a developing area of heavy thunderstorm activity over the northern Gulf of Mexico near Mississippi the next few days, since wind shear is light and the ocean waters are warm. None of the computer models forecast development from this area, however. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A large area of African dust covers the entire Atlantic between Africa and the eastern Caribbean, and will act to suppress tropical storm formation in those regions over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Which models are showing development of that system?
I am still getting caught up on 2 weeks of blogs.
Last time I checked the GFS CMC and 2 others cant remember which ones.
You know we're not supposed to go first anymore.
But It dont matter to me.
carrying forward from last blog, this is showing up nicely on the wv images - it's positioned perfectly for development, and the next few days will tell:
A NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 25N92W...DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
Just for your info, yesterday Admin issued a message about not doing the "First" comments on the new blogs. Said it was taking up space...blah blah blah
98W.INVEST

Freaky prediction
Since when?

It must have happened in the last 2 weeks. I was in Geneva, NY for 2 weeks without any way of getting information (no internet, television, radio, or phone).
Oh wow, the CMC develops that Honduras blob and has it heading towards south Texas. That will have to be watched...
I see. Well then, I apologize. I honestly had no idea. I got back last night at about 9:30 PM.
What about the flare up off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras? Is wind shear too high in that vicinity for anything to devlelope? If yes than next week is looking quite dead as far as potentual tropical systems.
Can anyone say where to find wx reports for Puerto Lempira Honduras or Puerto Cabeza Nicaragua?
is that an upper level feature at 96 W, 25 N showing up on WV? or is it nothing at all?
19. WSI
"Oh wow, the CMC develops that Honduras blob and has it heading towards south Texas"

Keep in mind that the CMC has overplayed a lot of blobs so far this season. Yes, it got Alberto, but that was about it.

weathercore.com
Caymanite.....Link
GainesvilleGator...No, wind shear is not too high and that is my watch right now. Pressure even in Belize City are at 1010mb right now.
NOGAPS is onboard with the Honduras system as well.
Posted By: OneDay at 7:29 PM GMT on July 06, 2006.
is that an upper level feature at 96 W, 25 N showing up on WV? or is it nothing at all?

It appears to be an upper level feature. NHC analyses does not show a surface low.

Link
Thanks Randrewl,as you can see not much going on there and that is very near to center of blob.
It's looking like the defacation has hit the rotary oscillator in the Gulf and western Carib.
i say this may form into something tropically speaking or maybe even subtropical.

here's a IR image...
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Caymanite...I know. But it fries my noodle when I see pressure in Belize City at 1010 and dropping that Honduras still is around 1013. I have issues with these WU reporting stations. Who is calibrated correctly and who is not?
Caymanite.... Finally got a recent report from Roatan...then this: Link
We need to get a report from Roatan or Utilla, HO. Utillawatch are you in here?
jphurricane2006...What is off Honduras now will end up in the western Gulf and that is my watch right now.
jp...these are my odds on BOB and GOMB...haven't really looked at CABOB (Central American Blob over Belize.) :-)
i would have to say the bahamas area area has a pretty good shot of some slow developement as it heads to the north.
louastu and OneDay, the feature in the blob is described in the Tropical Weather Discussion:
A NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 25N92W...DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
For everyone's information there is no Belize Blob. Of course by the time this is actually posted it may well be there! It is a Honduras Blob! And it is tied in with everything south of the western tip of Cuba. Just south of Cuba there is the low center in the uppers. Whew!
GulfScotsman...Yah and it is all because of that darn CC Blob!
GulfScotsman...Wow! Ain't that the truth! I just stood back and watched the loop and said..."Oh My God"!
does anyone think the large blob forming off the alabama coast will head to the west coast of Florida tomorrow?
"The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A large area of African dust covers the entire Atlantic between Africa and the eastern Caribbean, and will act to suppress tropical storm formation in those regions over the next few days.

Jeff Masters"

Let's have fun speculating, but no name calling please while waiting. I for one, hope none materializes!
had a tornado touchdown in myrtle beach today...... touched down near the beach on 38th ave north, and went out to sea..... 5 yrs ago to the day, of the last waterspout that came ashore in myrtle beach.... rare to get tornadic activity in these parts.... but it does happen. thankfully the large majority are the f1 type...... dangerous, but not normally deadly......
Buoy off Honduras reporting Easterly winds gusting to 31kts.
Link
That's over 35mph!
55. WSI
"That's over 35mph!"

Had a thunderstorm at my house the other week that had winds around 60mph. Blew the potted plants off the patio, and launched the trash can.
GulfScotsman...Excuse me...it just updated! Still 34mph. That is no trade wind
stretchy stretchy...all this stuff lined up along the upper trough is pretty stretched out and doesn't seem likely to develop into tropical cyclones.

the gulf may bear a bit of watching, though. it has a shot at developing, not a great one but you never know.
GulfScotsman....It is an area to watch. At least a 1007 tonight. The Belize pressure just amazes me but then that is where the pressure should be dropping out in front. I need that report from Roatan or Utilla.
OK, that blob off of Honduras is scary. Any shot it will go over land and weaken? What about getting sheared by mid level winds around that big low spinning in the gulf?

Dr. Masters didn't seem concerned with it. Is it just land based convection blowing out over the ocean?
iahishome...That particular blob is the southern terminus of the troff running south from FL...it is tied to the low pressure center off southern Cuba.
Any oldies out here now? Were we this way when the blogs started? Just curious. No derogatory thoughts here, just humerous to me now. I know that I was that way before, just wondering if any others of us were.
Thanks Randrewl.

I guess that means it's not gonna get picked up by the low in the gulf. I don't see much movement which seems bad. It's close to land though, so I'm still hoping that will inhibit formation.

If it doesn't hit land, it looks like it heads NNW into the gulf slowly over next few days. I hope I'm wrong.
that blob in the gulf has the right conditions too work with it has warm sst and little shear.i think it has a chance
I'm lurking here Code.
jphurricane2006...Where did you come up with that?
I say All Blobs Untie and become the Blob of the century!!!

RUN FOR THE ROCKIES!
Conditions at a personal weather station on northern coast of Honduras, 50 feet from ocean:

Temperature: 33 C
Dew Point: 25 C
Humidity: 61%
Wind: SSW at 16km/h
Pressure: 1011hPa
Precipitation: 0cm/hr
Daily Precip.: 0cm/hr

Northern Honduras PWS
jphurricane2006...I guess I'm just plain ignorant. I can't find a current pressure on there anywhere.
GulfScotsman...Excuse me...it just updated! Still 34mph. That is no trade wind

Yes, those are the trade winds. They have been unusually strong this time of year over the Caribbean. This combined with the wind shear has made tropical development impossible in this area.
Sorry that should be Unite***
Im just so nervous I cant spell
Randrewl - scroll all the way down to the bottom
Sorry if I duped your information JP. Maybe this is just afternoon performance that will settle down late tonight?
So, I see it is only newbies other than Bob, DB, CJ, and myself at present. Ahhhhh, we know. The others, we will have to give them a year. Back to the screaming fantoids! lol Bob, will see you in your blog!!!!
No disrespect intended Dr. M! I always read your updates. Just can do without the hype of others.
83. WSI
"Ahhhhh, we know."

I am in an out. It wasn't near this bad in the past in my opinion. Hence my t-storm comment a while ago. :)
NaplesPatty...What did I say? Ignorant....(must make mental note to scroll to bottom in future).
You know WSI, even if you weren't here last year. :-)
never mind Code, the folks here have the time and the interest to watch and speculate and discuss and debate and learn about developing tropical systems - my sense is that this is exactly what the good Dr. would have been aiming for when he started the blog..
What we need is a report from Utillawatch. Are you here?
Here in the Tampa area the weather has been picture perfect today and looks like we are not going to have any afternoon showers either.
I did a lot of lurking and learning last year. The hype definitely increased....I for one have definitely become more "verbal" in my what if scenarios. I think that is partly because I am seeing a lot I never saw before (in other words, I've learned a lot and know more variables to look at) and partly because I am still in the 2005 mode of any thunderstorm over open waters could become a category five hurricane.
jphurricane2006...Yah, the pressure there has dropped fairly quickly. I can understand Belize with the mountains right to the coast being low this time of day, but Roatan and Utilla are out in the Bay off Honduras and they are flat.
Posted By: WSI at 8:45 PM GMT on July 06, 2006.
"It wasn't near this bad in the past in my opinion"

Code, WSI, what I see is a wide variety of people that have an interest in what you "know" enough about already. Why complain, just explain!

But be polite and patient.

I personally like watching the blobs because I want to try and understand the different scenarios that can lead to or prevent tropical development. I also love the art of forecasting by imagery as another blogger put it.

I know a little about these systems, but I know I always have more to learn.

No offense intended guys, I know it can be frustrating when people are trying to learn, but I think that is why most of these people are here watching this stuff for.

Really guys, no harm intended, I just wish more of the experts would step in and explain what is going on with these blobs? Kudos to weatherguy03 for attempting this already.

SJ
StormJunkie..Say it man! I learn something every day and every storm. Just because someone may not know my handle on here does not mean I know nothing or was never here before this season.
Send these "experts" over to CFHC and they can post with "Margie"!
hey SJ, "the art of forecasting by imagery" - that's a wonderfully descriptive way of putting it..

Notice that the convection is being drawn and/or shifting toward the central Gulf?
If you feel people here have inferior knowledge than you, put in your two cents about whats being talked about and help us out.
The Accuweather site says that if the Carribean wave can stay intact as it crosses the Yucatan Pennisula then it has favorable conditiona in the Gulf of Mexico to bask in.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=3
bob code give up you are wasting your breath and they say accuweather overhypes
thats like yhe devil calling a demon an atheist lol those winds in the sw carrib have been that strong for weeks
it is a result of pressure gradient not the blob
which by the way is headed for the yucatan unless it moved since i last checked lol not many develop and across s/central yuc even major hurricanes get ripped topieces
if they skirt the ne yuc thats different ok let yall get back to cat 5 blobs lol
Map of the Bay Islands off Honduras

Link
Wow I can't believe the NHC's latest outlook doesn't even mention the Honduras blob. How dare they!
And not even Dr. Masters said anything about it yet. Maybe this will be the one that'll slap everyone in the face (except us) lol
Pressure is 1012 at La Ceiba and falling
Pressure is 1013 at Trujillo and falling
Afternoon Saint

The winds speeds a the buoy that was linked earlier have not gusted over 16 knots in the past 45 days. And the couple of 16kts gusts I found were far and few between. I am not saying that this means anything yet, only that it is the case.

SJ
I agree that a trip over the Yucatan for Mr. Honduras Blob would be a good thing. I may be imagining it, but it seems to be drifting slowly north without much shear and into warm water. I don't see any Westerly movement at all.

Hopefully I'm just seeing convection fire over that low that extends North to Cuba and the wave as a whole is still moving West toward land.

I find a little comfort seeing the pressures at that PWS (ROATAN) were in the same place several times over the last 48 hours.
Can we spam that ITC map Sciencecop put up a while back to get rid of it? I hate having to constantly scroll back and forth to read everything
* ITCZ
Even if HB (Honduras Blob) does go over the Yucatan, does that ULL spinning over the gulf suck it North into the gulf again? Seems like it would come off of Yucatan near Cancun and threaten Eastern Gulf.

If it's not a tropical storm yet, what level of winds will steer it, mid-level right? What's a good site for the mid-level winds over the Yucatan?

Of course if something else forms there near Alabama, it would depend on whether that storm hung around or went on shore to make room for the next one. I hope we don't end up with a tropical storm conga line in the GoM.
NaplesPatty...Just switch to show 50 comments. It is gone.
Thanks! I didn't realize there were 50 comments since that one already!
And I thought I was the only one who was insanely fascinated with tropical weather! Very good information people. I very much indeed reading about the blobs. Thank you Dr. Masters for your expertise and to the others who contribute to this enjoyable forum.
i agree
Something sucking the moisture away from Tampa Bay ...I was counting on the afternoon tstorms as my justification for not mowing the yard! drat.
Stormy2day...Unfortunately you are on the opposite side of the troff.
Anyone else have a problem with the NOAA water vapor loops? Quite often they simply stop updating before all frames load for me. Is it just the level of interest in the site or is my Java borked?

I don't think it's broken Java because I have the same problem at home vs. at work with different versions of Firefox. Could use IE I gues... Gulp.
gotta love that Saharan dust...
may not be a tropical system, but weather here has been miserable for days except for JULY 4.
iahishome - I was having that problem yesterday for a while (happened for about an hour yesterday afternoon around 2 I think)
Hey ya'll, just found this. It is a little long, but very informative.

SJ
cgableshurrycanegal..Can you expound on the Saharan dust comment? I just want your take on the effects of dust on anything please.
Try closing all java windows and reopening them. There is another way to fix it also, and they usually provide the link on the imagery sites.

SJ

125. code1
I definitely have inferior knowledge. Am the first to admit it. I just would rather listen to those in the know such as Dr. M, Bob, rocket, and a few others, to explain. I, in no way meant any disrespect to any speculation. You will see when these monsters are headed for the panhandle my screaming fantoids! Sorry if I offended anyone, not my intent. Just so tired of the name calling, and pointing of fingers here. Happened last year as well, but with so many newbies this year, seems to have gotten much worse. Blog world it is!
Latest frame of water vapor shows some blue in the center of some convection completely offshore of Honduras.

It also has a relatively circular shape. Someone please tell me a factor that will keep this from developing or steer it away from land. I don't see it.

Low shear, high SSTs, lots of convection, falling pressure and now symmetry?

Gulp...
It is all good code. I know the name calling gets out of hand sometimes, alhtough I have not seen that much of it lately. I also think that the "locals" attitude that some of us exhibit, including myself, can lead to name calling if we are not careful. Newbs have just as many rights as the rest of us. :)

SJ
128. code1
Agreed SJ! I have been guilty of such myself. It is still humerous to me though. Next year these same newbies will be on the same page as we "locals" are, and we will all welcome the next batch of newbies next yeat. Long live WU!!
Hey iahishome...is that IAH, as in Bush Intercontinental? I'm in Spring.
Sounds like a fanatic training camp to me. ;)
That was a great link SJ - very informative - is that associated with NHC?
that was pr'olly private... he sounded unprofessional. lol
Well, yes, my handle is IAH is home. Currently, I'm still in California. I'm trying to convince my wife to use our equity in our marginal too small house to buy a big, beautiful brand new house in Houston just a few minutes west of the airport.

Ever since I've thought about living there, I've taken a huge new interest. I've always been interested, much of my family lives in Beaumont and had 'fun times' with Hurricane Rita last year.

I'm not sure if I can convince my wife to move. She's very pregnant and hates humidity, plus she's more creeped out about the hurricane potential than I am. I just want to be a good 20 feet above sea level and I'm happy.
Sounds like a fanatic training camp to me. ;)

LOL WH ...is that what is going on? Fanatics trying to recruit us newbies? What is the prize for most recruits? a generator?
Don't know NP, it is on some portion of the NHC website. Came from here I geuss.

SJ
haha, You almost got that right. The Prize is A new blue tarp for your uninsured home.
Actually that guy was involved in the tropical roundtable with Dr. Masters last week. (Mike Naso)
Actually that guy was involved in the tropical roundtable discussion with Dr. Masters last week (Mike Naso)
oops - sorry for the double post
Let's see...hurricane with a good 2 or 3 days notice versus sudden earthquakes, mudslides, and wildfires. Yeah, CA is a whole lot safer from mother nature. ;-) And for the cost of a front porch in CA you could have a mansion in SE TX.

I sincerely hope you guys get/take the chance to get back here...TX is the greatest place in the world to live. (And I'm a completly objective voice...ha ha.)
iah, did you notice all the dry air (black) in the area? that is one factor inhibiting development. also, it does not really look all that symetrical to me on the WV loop. still looks quite asymetrical.
I'll take the blue tarp (can never get enough of those!) but keep the insurance jinx away from me...i've not been dropped ...yet
So 'bout the blobs. I've been told by the blob god himself that All the ULL blobs are wimps... Purely rain makers. But the blob in the norther carrib should make it to be our first hurricane... It'll be our psycho storm, AKA Drop in preasure to 890 mb in 5 hours.
Thanks OneDay.

Where I live, earthquake is the main risk. My best guess is my current house is within 100 meters of the San Jacinto fault, but we're in alluvial soil so we can't see it exactly. (Great, my house will sink in the earthquake.)

It would be good to move before the Big One. I think as long as I'm not right next to the ocean I can keep my family safe from hurricanes, even if I lose some property.

Yes, rw, thanks for pointing out the dry air to the west. Here's hoping that gets sucked in as it tries to grow. I'm also seeing what looks like a small low forming north of the blob on WV though I'm not sure what that means or even what altitude the circulation I'm seeing is at.
Well, I'm out.
Speaking of a psycho storm, take a look at this (be glad that the Atlantic is not like the West Pacific).

BTW, if that is right, a storm like this one will develop (it has been showing it for several days and has been making it stronger and bigger with each run).
Newbies, don't be intimidated by the guessteroligist's. But I will admit I'm impressed by the system off Honduras.
Michael,
the first link ...not a clue what I was looking at! the 2nd link, in english, I got that - wow, that Tip was massive. That's enough to make one look for real estate in Iowa!
Took another glance, seeing circulation developing east of Belize and Yucatan.
Taz thats just too hot. Its a warmer area but not that much out of line. I dont see how these SS temperatures can happen without causing lasting instability in the atmosphere over them. I dont think anyone else is explaining it well either.
iahishome-
my take - doesn't matter where you have your home - there are enough natural disasters to go around. My decision for where to live was based first on the quality I want from life - I want sand and surf. In over 20 years, the amount of time I've been tense over an approaching storm has never outweighed the enjoyment I get from living here. While growing up in Ohio, during the summer months, I ran to the basement at least once a week because of approaching tornadoes.

You pick your poison.

Personally ...earthquakes would scare me also. At least with tropical storms - we see them coming!
The first link shows whether a system is warm-core (tropical), the size of gale force winds (indicated by the size of the circles), the pressure (not accurate for tropical systems unless you are looking at a GFDL run, due to the rather coarse resolution of most models), and the track and SSTs (third and fourth images). More technical details can be found here.
Puerto Lempira has East winds, and the pressure hasn't fallen, Bluefields in Nicaragua has an East wind, but the pressure is down to 1011 mb

No sign of a closed circulation on a zoomed visible



anyone who wants a blow by blow of this storm off honduras im right here on roatan island. the wind is picking up and i think its time to take some stuff off my porch. as long as i have power and internet ill be checking in. any insight you folks have i would be interested... especially you dr. jeff.
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.

leave comments at my blog and thanks for the update. Also there is a conclusionm to July 04 question.

Looking forward to ur nect blog
Just saw this story on the News this would also happen with higher than average atmospheric pressures.

Wildfires Getting Worse Due to Warming

authors analyzed more than 1,100 large wildfires between 1970 and 2003, and discovered a dramatic increase in the number of wildfires, beginning in 1986.
Michael,
Your explanation was perfect. Thanks! The technical details link - I'm not ready for that! :-)
there is some serious lightening popping in and around Orlando
12Z Canadian Global has high hopes for Honduras wave, anyway, follwoing 850 mb vorticity fields

The Canadian seems prone to over-predict what never develops, but also predicted the not quite a storm in North Carolina and T.S. Alberto ahead of all the models.
Stormy2day , I Have lived in Florida all My life , except for a stint in the Air Force.
Spent 3 years in California. Experienced an earthquake. Really eerie !! At least you know when a hurricane is coming.
Thanks Roatan!

You appear to be west of the action and I hope it stays that way, unless you wouldn't mind a minor blow over on it's way to die in the Yucatan.
roatangardener...Hi. Yes, I am interested in conditions there in Roatan. You are located in a unique position to deliver invaluable information to this blog. Please keep us updated on pressure especially. Thanks.
Okay, two items of discussion. One being what has come off of the Yucatan area and the other the disturbance in the Gulf. The one by the Yucatan appears to be getting better organized while the one in the Gulf appears to be just a fish storm as far as I can see. However what is perched over Florida I see becoming a tropical storm and then heading back towards Florida, then along the East Coast towards Cape Cod possibly as a hurricane.

The Yucatan Storm may become a tropical system while the other will stay a fish/oil storm.
iahishome -assuming it actually tried to become something before the Yucatan, it wouldn't neccasarily die over the Yucatan a la Isidore. I can't remember the year or name now, but I remember watching the TWC tropical update, and a nice wave moved into the Yucatan, and it was impressive watching the anticyclonic outflow centered right over the wave, a big area of convection that didn't have a well defined center. As soon as it moved into the Gulf, it developed.


It might have been Bret about 7 years ago, but I'm not certain.
Finally got some decent rain in pcola today. I was on the road today and the rain followed me every where I went (gulf breeze, fort walton, crestiew and milton. The cmc is showing storm forming in gulf and heading twds s texas the nogaps is hinting at the same.
At lunch time, the Joe Bastardi video was leaning towards a hybrid development on the Florida system, that might or might not be named as a tropical or sub-tropical storm, with most of the rain/wind action East of the center offshore Carolinas and SE New England.

The Honduras wave was a more complicated situation, possibly aiding in development with the cut-off over the NW Gulf, with another digging short wave inducing a second cut-off. I got the impression he thinks low probability.

Looking at the water vapor, the upper low is too close to the Honduras wave, and is probably shearing it a little too much. Shortwave ridging is suggested to be developing, IMHO (and completely uneducated (petroleum engineer, but no met training), a bit East of the core of the storms, and if the upper low can move faster than the wave, eventually it might be in a more favorable location.

Just looked at the 850 mb vorticity animation on the Penn State experimental genesis site, and it loses the wave completely over Central America.
Edmahmoud

You are correct Isadore fell apart over Yucatan because It was already developed and a strong storm that loses its core takes several days to redevelope its core. but a weak storm or one that has not dev. yet can str. fast when it gets back over warm water and low shear.
Bay of Campeche buoy: Link
wonder when the Invest will will go up for the H. blob, and when they will move the floater?
'Tever develops East of FLA shall be carried swiftly out to sea.
On the subject of blobs, bloblets, smears and swirls, there is an interesting "swirl" in the radar loops south of Pensacola FL in the Gulf. Looks to be a low center forming in association with the trough, currently dropping ESE, with a long front-like tail of convection trailing.
Looks extratropical, but hey, it is over the Gulf.

BTW, roatangardener, appreciate your posts here!
Well, I would rather have it go over land and weaken than stay out there and fester. I can always hope that it will go over the Yucatan and then stay over land though that isn't where the models are taking it...

Shoot, best case is, take it over Mexico to gulf of California and give Southern California some rain...

OK, wakes up from dreaming. I just hope it doesn't go North of the Yucatan and pull a crazy Ivan...

Path of Hurricane Ivan
Rand, also note that the pressure about 24hrs ago at that bouy was 29.87. Don't think the falling means much unless it continues out of cycle.

SJ
OMG! 96.8 DEGREE SSTS!!!
Meanwhile, there is another East Pacific swirl at 10N 110W. Several such disturbances have come close to taking off in the last few weeks. We'll see....
At this point, I'm going to stop worrying about Honduras blob unless I see a westbound circulation on North side *OR* outflow beating shear on West side of storm.
I'm very Impressed my self and wonder why they (TWC,NHC) have not said to much about it...

I'm talking about the Honduras Blob...


Taco:-)
still waiting for this thing to arrive here. the wind is blowing from the east around 20 mph. can see the clouds on the coast south of me. according to the local weather station the pressure currently is 29.87... dont know how accurate that is. will keep posting. if this just becomes a big rain event - thats fine... we could use that.
185. WSI
". Why complain, just explain!"

Well, if those of us who are cautious weren't bashed for it by some, I might agree with you. Been several times I helped only to have a foot shoved up my rear because I didn't "see the swirl" or believe the system would "fight the shear", when there was no swirl and the system didn't fight the shear.

Say what you want, but obviously I am not the only one with his opinion as others have went to lurking or moved to other blogs.

Oh and no offense meant either. Speculating is fine. Making something its not is another.
186. WSI
*this
StormJunkie...Yah...I know. Just more info. Did you check that water temp? I think it was 86.1.
WSI,

I have enjoyed your cool head explaining some of these blobs. I hope you don't 'move on' as you put it.

I personally don't try to predict blobs... I'm sooo not qualified. I do hope out loud sometimes.

I have, however, learned a lot by quietly reading this blog for a long time. I probably will not post quite this much most of the time, just nervous about my new baby and not focusing much on my work so I have a little extra time.

Keep up the good work.
roatangardener...yes we thank you for your information. Stay with us and please keep posting. Any information you have is of interest.
Utilawatch...are you here?
SJ...Do you see that coc south of cuba at 21 & 85?
I see WSI, you let the few that are rude and unwilling to to look at things from a different angle ruin it for all.

It also helps if the details of what is happening can be explained without sounding condescending. Also good to explain and then let it play out; don't argue with someone about what you know is true unless you can change their opinion. You also can not expect some one to change their opinion with out them understanding why they are changing it.

Anywho, I just don't think we want to scare new folks,that may just want to learn, away from the blog.

SJ
WSI - I hope you stay, and I hope a little "imagery forecasting" doesn't bother you too much. For me, "a swirl" implies it might be something interesting, but also might be short-lived. If I point out a "swirl" I usually want someone else to look-see and tell me what they think.
I just came in and am very ashamed of this blog. It is sad. There seems no longer to be a place for learning or discussing scientifically. Arguing is the only way to learn and I am sick of hearing dont argue "cause I have rights".

Also, stop wishcasting if you are. It is more annoying than a raccoon in the attic.
I am still not sure what this "wishcasting" thing is, but when I see something I usually look for as much information as I can find so I am ready to discuss it. If nobody else is interested, I just let it drop.
wishcasting = dumming everyone down to have a fantasy that your in or are going to have a storm.

...As opposed to looking at features in the atmosphere you find interesting, and pointing them out for others to discuss?

Sorry, not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand.
198. PBG00
Guy..I lurk alot and alot of people hate this wishcasting.They seem to take offence..I find it interesting to look at things I would not even know to look at. I think people just get wrapped up in the excitement of a developing storm.
turtlehurricane - I guess I am not understanding the topics that are being discussed here that make you ashamed of the blog. Maybe you could elaborate, please?
Afternoon Guygee.

I think it boils down tothe fact that the more you learn about these blobs and and swirls that sometimes turn in to tropical systems it is easier to determine which ones will and will not develop for whatever reason. That being said, I geuss it gets frustrating for people who have a better understanding to see the same things discussed over and over, and often by the same people. I think this happens mainly because there is a art to understanding these systems and it takes time for each individual to understand some of the basics of tropical cyclone development.

Rand Did not see much of a coc S of Cuba.

SJ
201. WSI
Hey guygee. I am not leaving, just more in lurk mode. I drop in when I can. And I am not talking about speculating, even though SJ wants to twist it into that. Speculating and wondering is fine. Saying something is going to do something and totally ignoring reason is another, especially when you slap others in the process. Saying the NHC is crazy for not classifying a thunderstorm in the Gulf.. stuff like that. Again, this is just my opinion, and obviously isn't held by everyone.

SJ, whatever man. You know what I am talking about. If you want to imply that I talk down, thats fine. Whatever floats your boat. Apparently that opinion doesn't sit with everyone. I give an opinon and I do let it play out. It's the stuff in between that I speak of.

I help when I can, just as much as you do. The only thing that scares people off is the insults and the like. Again, the exodus of others from this blog should clue you in that maybe I am not the only one thinking this.

Anyway, enough on the subject. If you want to continue, you know how to get a hold of me.
Good grief...just talking about wishcasting this much is as good as doing it. How about some weather?
203. PBG00
Well said SJ
Thank you for your replies StormJunkie and WSI. I'm just going to hang back a bit and think all of this over for awhile. I don't mean to get people angry here.

guygee...AHHHH..nobody's angry. Talk weather.
Without being scientific, just from old lore.
There is too much interaction between too many systems for anything to develop right now. the whole itcz is just not right.
Right Randrewl, things go a lot better here when we stay on topic. Lot's of interesting things going on, I'll check back soon.
I think that the system east of Florida may develop
209. WSI
guygee, I wasn't talking about you.
Several areas of concern - perhaps most ominous is the breakdown of the west to east wind flow that was going through the gulf and caribbean. Now there are swirls all over the place. The Hondurus blob looks like it has some potential - also right in the gulf a little above the bay of campeche there is a counter clockwise swirl.
Alright ya'll, I had a little more to say, but I think you are right about the sticking to weather. Can not let myself get side tracked.

Anywho, I am going out to dinner with my grilfriend. See ya'll later. Don't let the blobs run crazy. :)

StormJunkie.com for all of your weather information needs. Imagery, marine data, forecast models, wind data, storm video and much more.

See ya'll later
SJ
chessrascal, look at satellite imagery. The storm off Florida is going to be pushed NE and become extratropical.
WSI - I was a little more disturbed by turtlehurricane coming in and dropping her bomb, and then refusing to discuss it. She has made many good posts here in the past, but I don't see this kind of behavior as constructive at all. So I am just going to ignore any similar posts from her in the future.
215. MZT
I do think this blog has gotten weighed down by boasting and trolling. I mainly follow b/c the better posters do sometimes have links I didn't know about.
Hang in there turtle, They don't like me either
Just when I think I'm learning something - I look at the images and all I see is many colors moving in all different directions. I don't see the clues you all are referencing that something might form ...I think I'm hopeless.

Question...when you all reference pressure dropping as an indicator - how do you clarify the difference between expected normal afternoon drops (like we have daily here in Florida) and drops that mean something evil could form?

...and, I've had a raccoon in my attic - I'll take this group over that again any day!

-stormy
From the latest discussion:

"SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED."

Have they not looked at all of the pressure data? I bet they will be eating their words soon.
MZT - Kind of a "Monte Carlo" method going on here. A lot of people point out features and possibilities that maybe I wouldn't have thought about myself, so it helps me consider all of the possible scenarios. Also a good collection point for links and text info that apply to areas of interest.
guygee, you are acting extremely ignorant today. i think lighting some fireworks in your house might clear it up ;)

get well soon
quakeman55....Yah, They're always right and we're full of....!
stormy2day , I'll trade the mouse my cat brought in, that I can't trap, for your racoon.
guygee..I hope you are not thinking of continuing this childish argument with this person.
turtlehurricane LOL! That's much better!
oh so it worked. glad my advice helped :)
chef-
no deal on the mouse! ...at least with a raccoon, you don't have a problem knowing where it is.
According to the 8pm tropical discussion, the front that is coming through us here in Charleston and the gulf coast is gonna become stationary tomorrow. With that being said, how is the florida east coast disturbance gonna get wisked off to the northeast?

Starting sound like the Doc was right, and the models maybe onto something with the outerbanks setup for the weekend??

Anyone have iany thoughts about it?
It's always interesting to see what persists after the heat of the day fades away. That time is coming soon.
jphurricane2006...It's still just a Blob. No surface.
i wouldnt even give it "blob" status. it appears to be afternoon tstorms.
Stormy,

Good question about the pressures. I'm no meteorologist, but I think you have to compare it to the previous data and look for abnormalities. As SJ pointed out earlier, the pressure drops probably don't mean anything if the pressure was the same 24 hours earlier.

It appears to just be one piece of a very large puzzle. For example, the Honduras blob is totally reshaped now and forming convection farther south near land, so I think the whole thing now is to watch and wait and let the Caribbean figure out this new non-shear weather pattern.
it's those fronts that become stationary and then "fester" that are trouble.. I'm still looking at the Gulf for something to get going, admittedly it won't happen too quickly judging by the latest sat. images
Speaking of Shear, what is the forcast for the gulf and east coast area looking like?

I know somebody has posted a link or two before, just never saved em.
Do systems/blobs like to organize or form during the day or night better??
wern't there several storms last year that started from old fronts, or the end of troughs that lingered for several days?
iahishome,
that makes sense to me - thanks. Today would be a good example - pressure dropped here in the Bay area but it didn't drop as low as it usually does and it started rising earlier than usual. Thus, our pressure was abnormally high ...right?
rescueguy - Here is a very good link from cimss.ssec.wisc.edu for the West Atlantic with shear, shear tendency, a several other goodies in a menu.
Everything is all going to come together in the Bay of Campeche about this time tomorrow as far as the Carib. By then we will see what happens off the east coast of FL and how that develops on up the east coast. The Blob that Dr. M spoke about is still in the game.
That ship is a little farther west than the blob in question, wonder if it's credible?

I am not in the know on how those ship's calibrate their instruments and what not. I also dont have the whole pressure falling stuff down yet, still learning after 1 whole season on here listening to everyone!
rescueguy, I think you're referring to my comment. That system is still the one I've pegged the Patsy Cline.
i'm also interested if anyone has an answer to funhouse's day vs. night question.

It sure seems like I've done a lot of waking up in the morning to storms no one mentioned the night before...
funhouse, tropical systems tend to form better at night due to the diurnal maximum. the diurnal maximum is the time of night when the upper atmosphere is cool. this stimulates convection in the lower atmosphere to rise and thus, strengthen. if you ahve any more questions just ask :)
Thanks turtle
turtle my question is from what hrs. are the diurnal max?
JFLORIDA: Taz thats just too hot. Its a warmer area but not that much out of line. I dont see how these SS temperatures can happen without causing lasting instability in the atmosphere over them. I dont think anyone else is explaining it well either.

Y'all are getting me curious. So I went to Clusty.com.

The official location of this "buoy" is a geodetic benchmark. It is on land, technically, but they apparently have something hanging off a pier with the instrumentation. Here is how to find it. Note that first you have to find the post office.

PUBLICATION DATE: 01/14/2000
Station ID: 8771013 SUPERCEDED DATE: 04/21/2003
Name: EAGLE POINT, GALVESTON BAY
TEXAS
NOAA Chart: 11327 Latitude: 29 28.8' N
USGS Quad: TEXAS CITY Longitude: 94 55.1' W


To reach the tidal bench marks from the Post Office in San Leon, head south on
9th Street for 1.4 km (0.9 mi) to Avenue I, then turn east on Avenue I for 0.6
km (0.4 mi) to 5th Street., then turn south on 5th Street and go approximately
183 m (600 ft) to "Butler's on the Bay" hotel. The bench marks are located in
the vicinity of the pier and along 5th Street. The tide gauge is located on the
pier opposite the hotel, mounted on a square galvanized steel structure.
early morning typically. 2 am to 6 am is the average.
turtle: How much does the upper atmos change in temperature diurnally?
I don't know about diurnals. All I know is it's raining really hard here in Fort Myers right now. Because the tropics are heating up.
BUT !!! 2 more weeks before it gets really right.
Ran.. Don't hitch your wagon to the CMC just yet!!
Is it just my untrained eye but is there circulation with the honduras blob?
same here in the cape, chef
no wind and dry in the bay
I'm sure I've asked more than my quota of questions tonight so I'll leave you all to your blob analysis. night all.
'm sure I've asked more than my quota of questions tonight so I'll leave you all to your blob analysis. night all.

Blobs don't deserve analysis.....they deserve to be destroyed by wind shear!
From the Tropical Weather Discussion:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WEST
OF 90W.

My bets are on this horse, which is admittedly a long shot. The low is drawing in moisture and convection from all sides, and should look a lot prettier by morning. As the trough/frontal boundary sinks down into the Gulf and feeds it some moisture and energy, it has the potential to develop a surface circulation over the next day or two.
There is no quota silly Stormy :)

Evening rescue. You can find all the windshear maps and more on StormJunkie.com. The next step is learning to use all of the sites and what they have to offer :) That one can be a little time consuming.

SJ
caneman, my concern is that the shear won't last forever, and every day that passes sees SSTs rising as the July sun beats down on the tropics. A big tropical storm or smallish hurricane would at least stir up the waters and cool things down. Ultimately, high SSTs are the fuel for hurricane development and my sense is that they're very high for this time of year..

LOL, nbd abt the snowman, JPH. Being from Canada, I figure the "snow" in the handle is obligatory. Note that I'm melting in the summer heat - we had mid 80s here the last few days which is way too hot for me. Don't know how you all in the south handle the heat..
Wow, clobbered last night by the CCB and now it looks like tonite that we will get some of the HB. Im getting blobbed out and the season is just getting started. Winds here have gotten stronger from the south in the past few hours.
265. WSI
"I know somebody has posted a link or two before, just never saved em."

Hey rescue. WU has a link right on this site for the shear forecast.

Here.

Also, there are plenty of maps and so forth on weathercore.com, even a basic tropical forecasting tutorial.
AC - you don't tough it out at the beach?
as any one took a look at my blog today at all i mean wow this you have to see
im here to put everyones mind at ease here...i just went over my new info of all the atmospheric charts and i can assure you nothing will form in the next 10 dAYS...THERE IS TO MUCH SHEAR OUT THERE AND ITS GOING TO INCREASE AND THE SST ARE FALLING....THE DUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST COVERS THE WHOLE ATLANTIC AND THATS A BYE BYE FOR THE CAPE VERDE SEASON...LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG WE WERE NOT GOING TO GET OUR FIRST HURRICANE UNTIL MID AUGUST....THAT IS WRITTEN IN STONE...PEOPLE ITS GOING TO BE A VERY SLOW HURRICANE SEASON ...DR GRAY WILL BE EATING CROW THIS YEAR WITH HIS 18 STORMS HE PREDICTED...I HAVE NOT GOT OFF 14 AND I STILL THINK THATS STRETCHING IT A BIT.....StormTop
we're heading into what I call the "daily doldrums" in terms of tropical weather - the convection sparked by day-time solar radiation is dying away, and the overnight convection which builds toward the early morning diurnal maximum has not yet started building..
Wow ST, if you could only share your top seceret information, we could all stop this silliness. Now when you deciede to start educating people instead of going on ego trips please let me know as I will be the first to listen.

SJ
OMG! 96.8 DEGREE SSTS!!!
Taz, calm down it is going to be ok :) That is a bunk buoy. Someone explained that it was hanging off a dock or something like that. Wonder if it is in a tidal area?

Gimme the link to that again Taz.

Thanks
SJ
STORM JUNKIE I HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALL ALONG WITH THIS HURRICANE SEASON AND UNTIL IM WRONG GET OFF YOUR HIGH HORSE STORM AND GET A LIFE..I CANT HELP IT IF ITS GOING TO BE A SLOW HURRICANE SEASON....YOU SHOULD BE HAPPY WE DONT NEED NO MORE KATRINAS.....HAVE A GREAT NIGHT STORMY AND KEEP WATCHING THE BLOBS OUT THERE YOU NEVER KNOW YOU JUST MIGHT SEE A MERMAID SWIMMING OUT THERE....StormTop
StormJunkie i think the 96.8 kill that web sit i cant get bank in to where i post the 96.8 sea temps to see if it evere made it up to 97
yes the "daily doldrums" are happening all over the atlantic, except the blob off the central american coast, where convection has been persisting for the last several hours
Nice to see some SW floridians in da house.

In Cape Coral and we did just get a douse of heavy rain from our ull bobby band. A lil' "backwards flow". Morning and late storms coming from the Gulf as oppose to the normal s-s easterly flow dominated by the Bermuda High. I love it. What's up SJ?
Stormtop The 2004 season was the Same way as this year, I kindy agree with u about the Mid Aus hurricane but I still say anything is possible from now to then but i think that we will see 14- 15 tropical storm and/or hurricanes

Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.

you can answer at link.
sea surface temps in the atlantic are substantially cooler...there is barely any water temps above 28C above 10N.
they'll warm however as the season keeps on
284. MZT
Time for MZT's call ... I say no tropical formation for another day. The convection off Hondouras is interesting, but I think it's mainly thunderstorms. Not enough circulation is visible and pressures are still high in the area. The models ignored it. So will I, for now.
Link

Is that a train I hear coming through my town?

radar of "training"
Oddly, I think ST seems to be right. The wly sheer seems to be particularly strong even now. I also note the ITCZ seems still farther south and if the zone doesn't move more northward the only storms there will be will be subtropical (with some chance of becoming warm core) in nature. Having a warm SST doesn't guarantee a storm if no wave follows. The ITCZ must be further north if theres going to be any 'traditional' hurricane. TS Alberto was an oddity in itself. We may find more 'TS Alberto to Cat 1 hurricane' storms this year due to the persistant wly sheer.
'Having a warm SST doesn't guarantee a storm if no wave follows' AND a low pressure system tracks the wave.
whoo whoo buhdog
ST, you weren't right about Alberto so you will not be right again. I believe we will see another storm develop between now and then and a hurricane is not out of the question. The SST's off the East Coast are a lot warmer and warming I don't know where you base your information, but look at StormJunkies site for this information.
keeep the hurricanes out of the gulf the sea temps are way off the maps this year then the wehere last year if a hurricane get in the gulf from TX to FL it will boom right in too a cat 5 hurricane or stornger the TX cost are way hoter then they where last year at this time this will not be good new when a hurricane is about to make land fall it can get stornger right up to land fall the big one is comeing
All aboard.....the night train!

Ol skool club record there......Who sang that for a cool point?
All of weather's greatest prognosticators etch their long-range predictions in stone. Could be the ONLY thing left to read after a major hurricane strikes. Plus, they make great paperweights for the ol' work desk or doorstops... StormTop, you're "simply the best...better than all the rest".
jphurricane2006 have you seen my blog today wow we the sea temps gone way made i think if they do not cool off a lot tonight i think they be hiting 100 on friday
295. WSI
"All of weather's greatest prognosticators etch their long-range predictions in stone. "

LOL! That was great floodzonenc.
My last post was "scratch nad sniff". If you scroll to it and scratch the screen, you'll actually smell sarcasm.
Oh crap! That was scratch AND sniff... the other is just plain wrong!
well i guess i cant rest my lenny not worth a penny campaign
he is back and already at it again why did he not stay on that 70 year vac with his parents
for those that dont know lenny is st real name
Hey ST, You were WRONG about Alberto. All I asked was that you share your insight, but your ego will not allow it. Come in here and help us ignorant folks learn how to forecast as well as you. Otherwise I really have little use for your nonsense.

Clearing that up, I am not saying you are wrong about the season. Although the number of storms does not really matter. Especially with the warm temps close to the coast. I am very concerned that we could see a rapidly intensifying system close to land. And if you are right about no canes til mid August then the temps will only climb. As for me wanting storms, you are completely off base.

AS for temps in the Atlantic. The 28c+ waters are all along the E coast. The danger here, as mentioned above, is that weak systems can cross the Atlantic and enter the Gulf or Carib and rapidly intensify and continue to intensify as they near land.

SJ
oh yes the sea temps around Galveston is a lot hoter then this time last year i think year they where only in the low 70s or 80s but not this year not good news keep the hurricane a way from tx
how dare you call some one wrong on the blogs. its extremely rude.
303. MZT
I'd put my 2 cents on the "so what if the Atlantic is cool" camp. Storms BOMB over really warm water. They just do. And there's plenty of it in the gulf and Yucutan straits.

Give us 4 days of no wind shear and no Saharan dust, and there will be storms.
sj maybe its time for my lenny jingle again lol it seemed to
get rid of him for a while lol
hey STORMTOP, good to hear from you! bombastic as usual..
You may be the one eating crow - I'm going to quote your bold assertion "LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG WE WERE NOT GOING TO GET OUR FIRST HURRICANE UNTIL MID AUGUST" back at you every time a hurricane forms over the next 5 weeks..
snowboy its useless when you confront him or ask where he gets his info he dissappears
i guess mom tucks lenny in before 11 lol
i wish she would tuck him in about 7:30 :-)
The open Atlantic is not where storms tend to form this time of year, that happens later.. The Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic coastline are the areas to watch for now
didn't see your comment because I was writing mine, JPH, but your correct and we're saying much the same thing..
311. IKE
His mommy keeps forgetting to give ST his teddy bear...that's why he's so pissed all the time.....

Winds are really howling at those buoys in the Caribbean...up to 30-35 knots...strong trade winds.......
jp good point ive said this over and over john hopes rule if they formedinto a ts or hurr before 40w
the odd were over 90 percent they would not hit us if they stay weak they are more likely to move further west and
develop closer to us ala rita katrina opelia cindy these all came off africa but look where they formed and made landfall lol
also st or lenny always brags about the dust well some scientist believethe dust is a curse for the us rather than help allows waves to stay weak
until they get close to the bahamas where thay shake the dust and find things to thier can you say the above mentioned storms
I am with that will :)

Got the poem/song out SAINT? Always love to hear it.

SJ
What's the chances that the system that Dr. M was referring to develops and moves up toward Carolina coast? Would rainfall be an issue as far inland as Greenville?

BTW, Lenny is probably out with Squiggy visiting Laverne and Shirley.
Very well said Saint, and that is what makes me so concerned about the SSTs close to the coast.

Check out how warm the temps are close to the coast in many areas.
Typhoon Ewiniar update - just going to show how unpredictable these systems are, the typhoon clearly has a mind of its own and simply refuses to recurve. Original forecasts had it passing Japan to the west, then it was forecast to hit southern Japan, now it's predicted to pass Japan to the east and hit South Korea. Just a little bit further west, and it will make landfall in North Korea (which someone was wishing for yesterday). BTW, Ewiniar has 100 knot winds and is still a Cat 3 typhoon..
ha snowboy i bet it would launch some of his stoopid missles lol
uh shouldn't that be South Korea..
Not to point out the obvious, but early July true Cape Verde type storms like Bertha are pretty darned infrequent, and, IIRC, 2004 didn't get active until August.


Honduras blob still looks interesting, but the system last week in the Southern Bay of Campeche looked better, and had a definite rotation, and it never developed.


be interesting to see what this does if it makes the Bay of Campeche over the weekend.
What does everyone think of the wave at 10N30W?

Link
Quakeman, IIRC, the 12Z GFS took the wave ahead of it near 40W, which isn't at all impressive looking now, and nearly closed off an 850 mb circulation with it near Miami by Wednesday morning.

Not that that means anything.

Almost bed time.
Doesn't ST use "resons" or something like that to get his info? lol
Quake, I posted this earlier. This is the guy who interviewd Dr M on the Round Table the other night. Very informative video and it talks about your wave I think.

SJ
SJ, I saw that entire video, and yes he did mention the wave. He mentioned about the ridge building and the suppression of the ULL's, which would allow for more development in and around the Caribbean. Very good site...I'm going to bookmark it =]
nope, North Korea..
Buh Dog... Too many hints in your post, it's Kool Moe Dee...

But anyway, if that Honduras Blob survives until morning, it looks like the most interesting story, especially if it doesn't fully form before crossing the Yucatan or if it stays North of it...

Good night and good luck all.
Bedtime blob blogging before Beryl barometrically births by Bermuda because biology blows
Haha, good alliteration there cajun =]
chivalrous cajunkid can certainly compile compelling climatological creations ...
you have a link for that floater, jphurricane?
night : jphurricane2006 and snowboy and evere one keep a hi on thing for me ok night
good morning /evening, whichever applies, i have no info to inject here,but,i do have a question, was anyone in this blog near the point of impact where charlie came in in 2004? i ask for i wish to gather all the itel i can from peeps that seem to have thier act toghter on the subject of hurricanes, so if you wouldnt mind sharing......? and t/y for your time
ok,i am sure i did this wrong, but was hoping someone would point out what, and show me how to do it right, i am looking for wind speeds at surface and low altitudesay 300-1500 ft? i have heard the initial "offical" reports, but was hoping to find someone with measured wind speeds records from this event
some sleepy sapiens suddenly send such silly sentences...
t/y jp hurricane i also went through it, about 23 miles from ground zero arcadia to be precise....what a mess
Do any of you know of a like where I can view real-time high resolution sat images? I have most of the links to GOES Rap Noaa and all that sort of stuff. I'm looking for something like google earth, but with real-time. I also downloaded SIMULCAST but I can't seem to install it. I can't configure the Java Service Wrapper. It wont let me edit .\jsw\bin\sc-services.sh
If anyone can help I'd be most gracious.
Typhoon Ewiniar update - this ornery typhoon is refusing to recurve and is heading resolutely northwest, with sustained winds of 100 knots (Cat 3). Now predicted to hit South Korea with 80 knot winds, if it continues on its current course it will hit the northern tip of Taiwan 1 1/2 days earlier with 95 knot winds (borderline Cat 3)..
What ever happened to that area of low pressure circling around Houston this afternoon? Has it moved offshore and if so what are the chances of a low level circulation developing?
jp hurricane, i wanted any hard facts on the wind speed at pt. charlotte and arcadia that you might have, if any, again sorry, i am newer than nebee at this blog thing, plz. bare with me
We really need an edit button
ok, t/y for your help jp have a great nite
quakeman, I see the 10N 30W wave, looks healthy right now, so much for all of the Saharan dust
to all of my south floridians who had to outrun all of the tropical downpours today, and everyone else, i say whats up
Yeah i checked the GFS and the last couple of runs do have it coming into the extreme south florida area around Miami, we'll have to see, still almost a week away
yeah we got a lot of rain in Boca today, I work outside so the afternoon was washed out
I dunno about turning but it does seem to have some good outflow. Also our Honduras blob is developing convection to the NW of what probably would be the llc if there was one at this time.
Forget the Bahamas activity, or the 90W thing, or the Honduras blob, the 10N 30W wave may be the area of disturbance that has the best chance of forming into something
BTW your link has an extra "http" in it lol

Yes, we DO need an "edit" button!! [insert crappy English accent imitation here] Damnit to bloody hell!
I do see a slight hint of rotation, how about 9.5N 31 W. It seems to have the strongest storms on the nw side of 9.5N 31W.
Lol, I think the colored infrared version is better to look at then the visible, which at night is simply the uncolorized IR. Try this lol
Yes it does have a nice ball shape to it. It will be interesting to see what the morning brings.
sorry jphurricane2006, can't do video at this end - everything I am seeing suggests a hit on South Korea by Ewiniar, and even that only if the darn thing starts to recurve..
yeah mon, I gotta get some z's, south florida must keep an eye on this wave, it has decent outflow, good convection, and perhaps some rotation as I mentioned earlier, I would go out on a limb and say that I wouldn't be surprised if it was a tropical depression by Saturday
g'night jph, I'm off too. Can't wait to see if my Gulf of Mexico upper/mid level low has come back to life or fizzled out tomorrow am.
Night all
check this out Link
Frontal boundry really messing things up. Blob off Yucatan held up well over night. Looks like a rainy day here In SW Florida. Upper low over Bermuda high makes things hard to figure out.
jphurricane, I was procrastinating from studying and found that. I dug around for a while and couldn't turn up anything on it.
Good morning. Satellite looks much like when I shut down last night. Not a lot of changes. Florida stuff is moving up. That upper trough is still in place down to Belize. Pressure there is 1009mb which is down one from last night. No big deal. ULL in Campeche isn't showing much. Have to see how this all looks later.
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA...
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
Bocaman, did not see the area of distrubed weather in the central atlantic develop and make it's way to SFLA. Which model shows this area develop. It has good outflow and some th/storm around the center? This looks like our next player? What do you all think?
379. MahFL
This is from the JAX NWS weather discussion
"...THERE IS INDICATION THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE GA COAST"
low developing off the GA coast will move NE so wouldn't it move away from the U.S. and I've heard someone say it would be non tropical. Is this true?
tropicalstorm006...It is supposed to form as a non-tropical low. It depends how far off the GA coast it is as to if it might impact NC. I'm not seeing it yet but where it should be makes a good argument for a brush with NC.
I agree with Mahfl I went to the NWS site and on GA discussion it said low was forming off of GA coast and on other sites I've seen it mentioned in forecast.
found this a few min. ago

EVOLUTION OF THE ERN US TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED 500 MB LOW...
A DRAMATIC SHIFT OR TREND WITH THE 00Z/07 NAM COMPARED TO 12 HRS
AGO CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING. DURING THE FIRST 24 HRS... THE 00Z NAM ALLOWS THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS/VORT MAX TO LIFT/SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES AND ALLOW SOME DYNAMICS TO ATTEMPT
CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE PREVIOUS RUN ALLOWED THE
ENTIRE 20 UNIT VORT MAX TO BE SHUT OFF OF THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN
CLOSING OFF MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER THE MID-ATL STATES. DURING THE
DAY 2 FORECAST... THE TREND IS LIKE NIGHT AND DAY. THE 00Z NAM
CLOSES OFF THE 500 MB LOW... DEEPENS IT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND KEEPS A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z RUN ALLOWED AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
STILL BASED OVER THE MID-ATL. ON DAY 3... THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATL BUT FILLING WHILE THE 12Z
RUN... WAS LIFTING THE CLOSED LOW/OPEN WAVE INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE GULF
STREAM IS PRETTY MUCH SIMILAR EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 00Z NAM IS OBVIOUSLY
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIFTS IT INTO THE MID-ATL ON
DAY 3 INSTEAD OF THE 12Z SCENARIO OF THE NORTHEAST.

THE GFS ALSO INDICATES SOME MODERATE TRENDS CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE 00Z/07 AND THE
12Z/06 GFS INDICATE SIMILARITIES IN THE DYNAMICS/VORT ENERGY
DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST AND DYNAMICS BEING LEFT BEHIND... TRAPPED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BY DAY 2... THE 00Z GFS CLOSES OFF THE 500 MB
LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER ERN GA/SC THAN NC/VA. AFTER
THAT... THE UPPER LOW THAT DEEPENS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE
00Z TRACKS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW/OPEN WAVE UP THE APPALACHIAN
SPINE INTO THE MID-ATL INSTEAD OF THROUGH THE MID-ATL/NORTHEAST.
THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST DURING THE ENTIRE THREE DAY PERIOD WITH EACH FRONTAL WAVE
REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

Charleston NWS:

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST.
385. MahFL
I can't see any evidence yet of a low forming.
MahFL...Me either. It's still early.
Woohoo! FINALLY, got rain last night. Spent over $400 last month in water and electricity.
Just say no to High SST!

Cooler water is what we need!
Morning all. Still high and dry here in the Bay - pressure and temps taking their regular morning rise. Clouds lurking all around - I'm sitting under a window of blue sky. 21mph sneeze came through around midnight, and showing .01 rain at 3am ...more likely that a sea gull pooped in the rain gauge...
390. MahFL
Now I can see some rain cells backbuilding SW.
Hey Stormy. Seems like we keep getting screwed out of the action as of late.
Nash, I know ...seems to be firing up all around. I have an onshore wind right now - if you can call 4mph a wind. Stuff building to the nw might try to make a run this way but there is an invisible force field that hangs over Gulfport (how do you like my meteorological technical talk?) and splits a lot of cells that attempt entry. I think it has something to do with my proximity to the mouth of Tampa Bay. All I know is that I watch the split happen all the time.
You're right on the money Stormy. Several times over the past couple of weeks I have watched it get almost black over Apollo Beach and five minutes later, NOTHING! It's crazy.
Morning all.

Whats up nash and stormy?

Morning SJ - just sitting back in envy of our neighbors getting all the rain.

Also, I'm practicing my meteorological talk...

I was reading the blog entries that happened last night after I signed off and ST told me to keep watching the blobs, that I might see a Mermaid. I figure, if it is possible to see Mermaids in a blob then it is possible to have an invisible force field that splits cells! :-)
Don't wish for rain too much. We had no rain all spring long and now I've had 10" in just the last 13 days here in Boynton Beach, FL.
wxman ...I know, grass is always greener on the other side - especially when the other side is getting rain! :-)
Stormy2day...I know what you mean about rain splitting all around . Same thing happens to us on the east coast. Nice boomers build up off-shore and run in and they bounce off the force field. Except of course when a hurricane is near...then it runs right through the St. Lucie inlet. We have had less than 2 inches here since June.
Masters has posted new blog for today
Morning Gulf and Rand.

These stalled fronts are certainly capable of producing tropical systesms, and the waters are warm enough off the GA/SC coast, but if anything develops, it should be slow to come about.

Wow, TWC just showed a new 3D shot of storms. Must have come from the new GOES imagery? Yes?

SJ