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A cool, snowy January for the globe in 2008

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:25 PM GMT on February 15, 2008

It's been a cool and snowy winter across much of the Northern Hemisphere so far this year, making it pretty unlikely that 2008 will end up ranking as one of the top five warmest years on record. January 2008 was just the 31st warmest January for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. For land areas only, January 2008 ranked near average--63rd warmest in the 130 years since global record keeping began in 1880. It was the coldest January since 1982, and marked a noticeable departure from the string of much warmer than average months the globe has experienced over the past eight years. A good portion of the global cool down in January can be credited to the current strong La Niña episode. Ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3°F (1.7°C) below average in January. The continuation of cooler-than-average temperatures dampened the global ocean average, which was the 17th warmest on record for January. The last time the globe was this cold was in November of 2000. Not coincidentally, that month marked the peak of the last major La Niña episode, as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.


Figure 1. Northern Hemisphere snow cover set a new record for January, narrowly besting the record set in 1985. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The extent of January snow cover in 2008 was the greatest on record for the Northern Hemisphere, narrowly besting the record set in 1985. Snow cover records extend back to 1967. Much of the record snow cover can be attributed to the cold and snowy weather experienced in China and southern Asia. However, Australia experienced its warmest January on record, and much of northern Russia had temperatures more than 5°C (9°F) above average in January.

U.S. temperatures: below average in January
For the contiguous U.S., January 2008 was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below average, and was the 49th coolest January since U.S. weather records began in 1895. It was the coldest January in the U.S. since 2003. January 2008 temperatures across much of the western U.S. were below normal, with near-normal temperatures across the Midwest, South, and Southeast regions. In contrast to the rest of the country, temperatures were above normal in the Northeast, which had its 20th warmest January on record.

Sea ice extent
January 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the fifth lowest on record for the month of January, 8% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. January was the third straight month that a new monthly minimum Arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. However, while the ice extent is not at a record low this month, the volume of the arctic ice is probably at a record low for January. The ice is exceptionally thin across the Arctic this winter, and the edge of this thin first-year ice extends all the way to the North Pole. The latest sea ice extent map and temperature anomaly map for the globe are available at our Climate Change web page, which we update each month.

Severe weather in Texas Saturday
If you live in Texas, keep a wary weather eye on Saturday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a portion of Eastern Texas, including Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, under its Moderate Risk region for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Which is the more reliable model as far as precip is concerned. I live in eastern NC. If I am reading the models correctly, the NAM is showing us getting 3+ inches of rain on Sunday/Monday but the GFS is showing less than one inch.
Good afternoon all! I have justed completed a full update on my site. On my site, I have changed my National Forecast page. In the discussion, I have broken it down by region and have more detailed forecasts for each region. Please check it out. Let me know what you think.
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Checking the models a few minutes ago, and it looks like some strong storms developing over the southeast on Saturday and Sunday, but it looks like the Daytona 500 will be okay.
CCHSWEATHERMAN-That is a very good web page you have put together.I am looking foward to the information it will provide,especially during hurricane season.
Be ready ,invest in a NOAA Alert Radio







Emergency alert weather radios can be lifesavers when severe weather threatens your area! During an emergency, emergency alert weather radios activate to provide you with immediate information about the life-threatening event.

Weather radios from Oregon Scientific, Midland, First Alert, Reecom and WeatherOne are available in varying price ranges and incorporate features such as sirens, flashing strobe lights, warning messages and alert tones. Weather radios are available in portable or desktop models and many include SAME (Specific Area Message Encoding) technology allowing you to filter our distant warning broadcasts and instead monitor only your local area! Link

This is from this morning's Corpus Christi discussion regarding tomorrow's forecast:



POTENTIALLY POTENT SITUATION DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY.

...EXPECT LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG.
6. hydrus 1:18 PM EST on February 15, 2008
CCHSWEATHERMAN-That is a very good web page you have put together.I am looking foward to the information it will provide,especially during hurricane season.


Thank you for the complement. I have worked hard to make this site. During hurricane season, I will have updates nearly every day. I will soon place a page on my site where you can access links to many weather or weather-related websites which you can use. I want to make my site as user-friendly as possible.
anyone here?
I have a good idea that February will be even colder:



Still strengthening - and at a time when virtually every other ENSO episode was weakening (normally peak around December).
From Jackson, MS NWS:


Photobucket

13. Inyo
Well, California certainly had a cold and stormy January. It's been warm for most of February, but the mountains still have snow on them down to below 5000 feet.

Baja and San Diego had a surprise mountain snowstorm yesterday too, and it looks like we are going back into a cold wet pattern, perhaps.
Looks like that troubling weather Saturday will be a wave maker for me -WFL/gomex - not big but maybe some nice southies
Got some nice rain from the last coldfront here in SRQ/WFL?gomex --it was a relief to get wet. Horses and humans felt the same out east. Pastures are all in need of more soaking, but at least there was a respite. Polo horses got the day off and that meant me too! Sadly __it was too cold for me to surf
For all WFL surfers depending on the front (HA!) we can expect waves 1-3ft Monday PM. Tuesday, winds from the west may provide more fun - it's be on the lookout time. Hopefully I'll find some surf time b/4 work and I won't wimp out cause it wetsuit temps.
Off to the kitchen to be domestic
forget that come down to PR no need for wet suit and the waves have been great for the last few weeks
return from kitchen dungeon, yes I heard you all have had a great run on wave action....although I think most of those waves had teeth too big for my likes. even so NO wetsuit!!!!! unfortunately I have an umbilical cord to my job w/horses, kids and presently the kitchen. Have too wait for the fronts to bing me waves or hurricanes ...not complaining though
GOES IR Loop GOM Link
patrap - you always find the BEST pictures!!!I can see those waves getting made - cookin' waves in the GOM - monday is a ways away - but potential is there. Thanks Patrap
Watch out next week for falling spy sats..LOL

Rather unnerving the remedy for the problem. This is one sure expensive OOPS - funny we didn't hear about the failure of this sat till now. also read how there have been many others successfully sunk in the pacific --but were they toxic like this one??? lots of questions --little truth --My kid thinks it did complete it's mission and they are blowing it up since it completed it's mission and they don't want anyone to get their hands on it???? --he also feels it's been up there way longer then we are being informed ---hummmmmm I have no opinion, he's a kid, but an interesting thought--
Thank you for the informative post, Dr. Masters!

However, I have a question. My understanding is that global "warming" is an euphemism for a global system which has an increased amount of energy. If this is true, wouldn't we be seeing relatively more intense winters with wilder weather, such as we have indeed been seeing? And if the globe as a whole has more energy and generally more "heat", wouldn't it be logical to assume that we would have intense winters, adjusted for the greater "heat?"

I ask merely for information...

-Rainmound
surfmom, interesting thought indeed. Maybe he has a career in intelligence.

Actually its failure was evident almost as soon as it achieved orbit Link and its eventual reentry was expected. Shooting it down may be a little overdramatic though. See comment #119 on my blog.
23. surfmom 11:18 PM GMT on February 15, 2008
Rather unnerving the remedy for the problem. This is one sure expensive OOPS - funny we didn't hear about the failure of this sat till now. also read how there have been many others successfully sunk in the pacific --but were they toxic like this one??? lots of questions --little truth --My kid thinks it did complete it's mission and they are blowing it up since it completed it's mission and they don't want anyone to get their hands on it???? --he also feels it's been up there way longer then we are being informed ---hummmmmm I have no opinion, he's a kid, but an interesting thought--
Action: | Ignore User



I think we as humans need to stop throwing toxic/chemicals in the ocean.Who knows it might hit land?(Wouldnt someone have a story to tell.)Missle will get it though.I HOPE.
Link


Heres a video from local Fox station last Thursday about the snow in N.C.


Check it out!

Just to let ya know there was over 200reported school/buisness closings and delays.Areas got between 2-4inches.Then temps went back to mid 60s.
The KH-11 Sat is a known orbital Platform. The US has been using them for a Long time. Its part of the way we stay safe in the Free World. Its not a
conspiracy or Secret. The Shuttle launched them until August of 89 when the Last one was Launched by NASA with Shuttle Columbia. Saw that one Launch ...

Columbia KH-11 Launch 1989 Link
Dont fret over man-made GW.....Everyone agrees that the sun is what warms the earth on a daily basis. The sun cant turn off or "not shine" but continues to allow life on this earth. Why is it so hard to fathom that it may just be our sun that causes most of the heating cycles on earth?

Before we run around like Al Gore saying the sky is falling, stop for a moment and take a breather!
So, I am hoping and praying that all this cool weather will nix any real problems this upcoming hurricane season...GOM is nice and chilly :)
It's NOT hard to fathom that the sun's cycles have an effect on our Earth - it's TRUE that the sun has some effect on our planet. But we have known how the sun affects our planet by its cycles for some time and can make pretty educated guesses based on geologic extracts on how it's affected us for quite a while. The changes in the sun aren't new, have been measured, and don't account for the changes in our planet by a pretty big margin...

I also didn't say I was scared. There doesn't seem to be much point. Reality is reality. You deal with it or you get dealt with, right?
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas

At 0900 WDT Saturday, Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was located about 545 km north-northeast of Karratha and moving west at about 7 km/h. Nicholas is likely to intensify today and move towards the south-southwest. There is the chance of a severe impact on the Pilbara coast on Monday or Tuesday. A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Mardie. A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay and adjacent inland parts of both the Watch and Warning zones.

Cheers AussieStorm
I think the Name Ivan is not a good name for a Hurricane, for one, ITS ALWAYS A MAJOR HURRICANE!
30. ajcamsmom 9:12 PM CST on February 15, 2008
So, I am hoping and praying that all this cool weather will nix any real problems this upcoming hurricane season...GOM is nice and chilly :)


The Gulf is still very warm - likely also adding extra fuel to severe weather systems, thus the extreme severe weather outbreaks when it meets colder than normal air (likely why La Nina years are often very bad tornado-wise):



Also of note is how warm the water off Africa is - although the cooler water in between may deter hurricanes (it could warm up in the next few months, or it might not; in 1999 the Atlantic warmed from cooler than normal early in the year to much warmer than normal by hurricane season, although this did not happen in 2000):


February 16, 1999:


September 14, 1999:



February 15, 2000:


September 16, 2000:


We can hope for the latter (of course, the U.S. probably won't have a bad season if La Nina doesn't weaken considerably, as storms tend to hit Central America instead - of course, they don't need them either).
If that warm pool off Africa does not weaken and strengthens later this year, and if the rest of the MDR warms up, then 2008 could be a bad year for hurricanes. Let's hope not, though. Things can change. But with this strong a La Nina, I would not look for a significant flurry of landfalling storms on the U.S. mainland in 2008. La Nina tends to steer storms toward Central America, as STL already said. Not always, but the stronger ones tend to do it (a good example is 1988, which had two very significant hurricanes hit Central America).
36. P451
If that warm pool off Africa does not weaken and strengthens later this year, and if the rest of the MDR warms up, then 2008 could be a bad year for hurricanes. Let's hope not, though. Things can change. But with this strong a La Nina, I would not look for a significant flurry of landfalling storms on the U.S. mainland in 2008. La Nina tends to steer storms toward Central America, as STL already said. Not always, but the stronger ones tend to do it (a good example is 1988, which had two very significant hurricanes hit Central America).

Unconvinced. Why? Wind Shear. Warm ocean temps are indeed important but they are irrelevant if wind shear decides to persist in the important regions of the Atlantic - much as they did ENE of Puerto Rico for the duration of last season thus tearing apart system after system that may have been a threat to the US.

On Dr Masters' comments - this side of the pond it's given the Scottish ski resorts their best season for some years but even so, not as much as would've been considered routine a decade or so back. Meanwhile, latest research at the University of East Anglia says autumn, spring and winter are all seeing more heavy rain - as opposed to the sad drizzly stuff.... my county had to find an extra $2 million to patch potholes in the roads a few weeks ago.
Unconvinced. Why? Wind Shear. Warm ocean temps are indeed important but they are irrelevant if wind shear decides to persist in the important regions of the Atlantic - much as they did ENE of Puerto Rico for the duration of last season thus tearing apart system after system that may have been a threat to the US.

That's true. I forgot about shear when I made that post. But it's only February, and as I said, things can change. Shear could (and should, at least theoretically, due to La Nia) weaken significantly by the time hurricane season rolls around. I don't see anything that would make shear stay above-normal across the Atlantic like last year, except maybe a stronger-than-normal Bermuda High, which would create stronger trade winds (and create low-level shearing, and even cool the oceans off, which would be a good thing), or if a lot of troughing set up like in 2006 and during the peak of 2007 (that huge mid-oceanic trough that set up during the peak of the season last year is what tore possible significant threats like Ingrid, Karen, and a few invests up before they reached the U.S. coast).

But overall, the current La Nia pattern favors an active hurricane season. But it's dumb to predict what it will do this far in advance, so I'm not going to try.

Small correction: a stronger than normal Bermuda High would create strong shear even in the mid- to upper-levels if it was oriented in those levels.
But we have known how the sun affects our planet by its cycles for some time and can make pretty educated guesses based on geologic extracts on how it's affected us for quite a while. The changes in the sun aren't new, have been measured, and don't account for the changes in our planet by a pretty big margin...

You still cant explain how the sun "doesn't account for much" on this planet. There is no conclusive evidence that suggests that the sun has only minor impacts on our climate.....And if we get everything in the past from geological extract, how can you say that it is a fairly good estimate if we cant even explain what percentage of geological extract is actually representative of the past climate? There is no way to effectively distinguish the biases of our past climate. How do we measure changes in the sun with such confidence when we cant even get close to it? It's not like walking on the moon. We've only been able to make sun observations by instrument and observation from earth which is 93 million miles away from the sun. If it's hard to make measurements at home(earth) and come up with good long range forecasts, what makes anyone think they could "measure" something accurately that we aren't even remotely close to?...It's all a basis of logic.......No graph or anything explains the whole picture. Only fragmented pieces of history.....

Who said the sun "doesn't account for much"? Not me. It accounts for plenty. I said it doesn't account for the changes we are seeing. We can do math and figure out how much of an effect the sun is having on us right now based on how much energy it's putting out. Pls. don't put words in my mouth.

You're also speaking from ignorance - we actually have spacecraft which just went over the "north pole" of the sun. You can check the website of the spacecraft out at http://ulysses.jpl.nasa.gov/ So we do indeed have close-up measurements of the Sun RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT, as well as the measurements from 93 million miles away, as well as measurements from the spacecraft which just got to Mercury, the ones currently around Venus, etc. etc. Check out spaceweather.com for details! Some of the graphics are pretty cool.

To be honest, I'd be more surprised if we missed something!
quasi - check out SOHO also - http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/about/about.html - it focuses also on studying the sun from closeup! Japan has its own spacecraft too of course but I'm not sure of the website!
From Houston NWS:


ALL THE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HELICITIES ARE BETWEEN
400-550 WITH LI BETWEEN -4 AND -6. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING. JUST TREMENDOUS WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WILL MENTION ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE ZFP TO STRESS HOW DANGEROUS
THIS WEATHER EVENT WILL BE.



THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
EVENT WILL BE GREATER THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN DURING RECENT EVENTS.


RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. IF OUTDOORS...KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SKY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...NEWS MEDIA...
INTERNET...AND OTHER WEATHER INFORMATION SOURCES. BE PREPARED TO
ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE TORNADOES OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN
YOUR AREA.



Photobucket

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A cold front stretches from a surface low near 31N/96W across the Southeast United States along 32N/85W and into the Western Atlantic through 35N/70W 38N/60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from 95W to 85W north of the Gulf Coast. The crest of an upper ridge covers the Gulf providing a dry confluent flow across the area leading to much subsidence and fair weather dominates at the surface. Surface high-pressure return flow is producing 10-20 knot southeasterly flow and 7-8 ft seas across the Gulf waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the Western Gulf in the next 12-24 hrs accompanied by increase wind and wave action across the Gulf west of 95W, while the pressure gradient across the remainder the Gulf weakens allowing seas and winds to subside. Elsewhere, cirrus spikes will continue to invade the southern portion of region within the southwesterly flow around the upper ridge.

An inactive cold front is pushing across the Western Atlantic...only low shallow clouds lie along the boundary. Meanwhile, mid-upper level cloudiness and moisture is spreading from 75W to 60W north of 27N. Very weak surface pressure pattern ahead of the cold front. Typical patches of shallow cloudiness are seen within the easterly flow south of the subtropical ridge south of 25N to 70W.

by W456

SOUTH PADRE SURFCAM ™ live from the Sheraton at South Padre Island Jetties



CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A very large and extensive upper ridge covers the entire Caribbean region with the axis extending from Southern Venezuela to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-upper level moisture is being advected from thunderstorms associated with the Eastern Pacific ITCZ across much of Central America. Mid-upper level dry air covers much of the remainder of the Caribbean basin thus fair weather dominates. Trades are easterly at 20 knots producing swells of 7-8 ft...increasing to 12 ft across the Southwest Caribbean. A building ridge north of the region should only enhance these conditions. The trades are also advecting their typical patches of shallow cloudiness, most prevalent across the Eastern Caribbean, to the Central American terrain. Expect continued periods of passing showers.

by W456

Cruz Bay Cam live from St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

456 i sent you some mail
hour, 16 minutes ago



HOUSTON - Military plans to shoot down a damaged U.S. spy satellite carrying toxic fuel will not concern the crew aboard the international space station, commander Peggy Whitson said Saturday.



The military hopes to smash the satellite as soon as next week — just before it enters Earth's atmosphere — with a single missile fired from a Navy cruiser in the northern Pacific Ocean.

It was unclear how close the satellite will be to the space station when it is shot down. NASA referred questions to the Defense Department, which did not immediately return a message seeking clarification.

Whitson, Russian cosmonaut Yuri Malenchenko and French astronaut Leopold Eyharts will still be in orbit 215 miles above Earth when the satellite is targeted. The satellite will be about 150 miles up when the shot is fired.

Whitson said NASA and the Department of Defense "love the station crew" and would not put them in harm's way.

"So, no, we're not worried about it," she said in a news conference with the 10-person shuttle-station crew.

Atlantis and its seven astronauts will be safely back on Earth before the Pentagon takes aim. NASA plans to open up the backup landing site in California to increase chances of an on-time landing next Wednesday even if weather is a problem in Florida.

Left alone, the satellite would be expected to hit Earth during the first week of March. About half of the 5,000-pound spacecraft would be expected to survive its blazing descent through the atmosphere and would scatter debris over several hundred miles.

Military and administration officials said the satellite is carrying fuel called hydrazine that could injure or even kill people who are near it when it hits the ground.

Known by its military designation US 193, the satellite was launched in December 2006. It lost power and its central computer failed almost immediately afterward, leaving it uncontrollable. It carried a sophisticated and secret imaging sensor.

The astronauts aboard the orbiting shuttle-station complex focused their attention Saturday on the inside of the new Columbus lab.

They have all day Saturday and just half a day Sunday before the hatches between shuttle Atlantis and the international space station are sealed.

On Friday, a pair of spacewalking astronauts wrapped up work on the exterior of Columbus, installing a package of sun-gazing instruments as well as a huge box of radiation, orbital debris and other experiments.

During their 7 1/2-hour spacewalk, Rex Walheim and Stanley Love also installed handrails on Columbus, and removed a broken gyroscope from the space station and loaded it into the shuttle for next week's ride home.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATER WEST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW OKLAHOMA...
TO MINDEN AND NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA.

THE GREATEST RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A ROUGHLY 12 HOUR PERIOD
BETWEEN 3 PM TODAY AND 3 AM SUNDAY.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN OVER EAST TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS...AHEAD OF THE LOW...
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION.

BY THIS EVENING...ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE IN
PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. POWERFUL JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALMOST A MILE OFF THE EARTHS SURFACE TO
PROVIDE A POWERFUL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE WARM...MOIST AIR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM...
MAY ENHANCE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

STRONG WIND SHEAR...OR THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION OR SPEED WITH
HEIGHT...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY THIS EVENING. THIS
COULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF TORNADOES OVER OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS WEST OF A MINEOLA...TO LONGVIEW...TO LUFKIN
LINE. IN THIS AREA...DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP.

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THIS SQUALL LINE
SHOULD AFFECT MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BEFORE 7 PM. SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER BY
MID EVENING. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS IF
PLANNING WEEKEND ACTIVITIES.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY LISTENING TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA OUTLETS.
UP TO DATE WEATHER
INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT OUR WEBSITE BY GOING TO WEATHER DOT
G O V...THEN CLICKING ON SHREVEPORT.
Here is an interesting writeup on why Wisconsin has had record snowfall this winter:

Why is it snowing so much in Southern Wisconsin this winter?
It also appears that Tropical Cyclone Ivan in the Indian Ocean is trying to join its Atlantic namesake:



WWIO21 KNES 161447
A. 18S (IVAN)
B. 16/1430Z
C. 16.6S
D. 51.5E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS... WMG EYE EMBEDDED AND SURROUNDED BY B FOR DT=6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. -SALEMI

After last year, Madagascar definately doesn't need more storms...
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC) Cyclone Ivan
Version 1

Vmax 118knts Link
God bless Madagascar.
Ivan looks like a monster per Patraps link
Perhaps we should stop naming these storms 'Ivan'??
Ivan made a big comeback. It was close to death a few days ago.
Know promoting one's blog is totally Verboten during "the season" but if you're terminally bored take a glance at my latest effort.
Not sure if we've had a Cyclone Hugo, but if we haven't, get prepared for that to be a destructive storm, too if one gets named that one day. Ivan and Hugo are the worst possible names for tropical cyclones.
Interesting how January turned out to be so cold, generally. Where I am in Maine, we averaged about 4F per day above normal - in spite of having substantially more snow cover than we've had in years, thanks to a near winter's worth of snow that fell in December.
AussieStorm and MichaelSTL

Thanks for your related posts! I was just noticing that Ivan reached Cat 3 and is about to plow into Madagascar, while Nicholas is gathering strength to possibly hit Australia as a Cat 3 as well.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/17/2164799.htm

Anyone know whether these storms seem unusual to Madagascar and Australia?
They have both been hit repeatedly this year.
All the best to all in harm's way! ♥
Some severe weather is heading my way. Winds of 70 mph, golf ball size hail, and a possible tornado could occur within the strongest storms, but I'm not really expecting a significant tornado threat with this. More along the lines of damaging winds and large hail.
I could do without the tornadoes. A tornado watch has been issued until 9:00 AM CDT for southeastern Louisiana.
Madagascar took a Bad Hit from Cyclone Ivan..
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC) Cyclone Ivan Landfall Loop Link

Response to the impact is already en route. Link


The Radar feature (and Sat feature) on gogle earth is cool. Here is the front.
looking at the link patrap posted - looks like madascar got really smacked - put a knot in my stomach just looking at it
Tornado Warnings for Doppler indicated possible tornado in Alabama
Wow, Hurricane Ivan's destructive and deadly legacy lives on, this time in the Indian Ocean.
Hello folks, Obviously i am never on this blog chatting unless there is something to do with the tropics going on. And i believe most of you know about my site japweather.webs.com
(formally freewebs.com/japweather or japweather.2ya.com) Anyway i thought id let you all know that i now have a thing on there that you can use to join my mailing list for updates whenever my site is updated. I have also changed the look and added some more features so please go check it out and if you can subscribe thanks.
SEVEN active tornado warnings in Alabama - Stay safe.

Tornadoes confirmed on the GROUND in Florida. Tornadoes in Alabama on the GROUND also.


Critical Weather in West Florida and in Alabama. also Moving into West Georgia



Hey All.......Just got in from Church with the Family, and, looks like a potentially dangerous eveing shaping up for the SE US (Fl-AL-GA) due to the approaching cold front from the West and the warmer air from the Gulf rushing towards the North; not a good recipie for stability and Tallahassee NWS, while not as sure this morning, is now "bracing us" for an active evening:
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
246 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR
AREA...AND A FEW SUPCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND WE EXPECT A
BUSY NIGHT.


Everyone in the line of fire so to speak needs to be on alert this evening (let your freinds and family know) as some of this weather will be coming in during night-time hours.....

This sounds bad...


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
208 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BULLOCK...WESTERN BARBOUR AND PIKE COUNTIES...

AT 204 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HENDERSON...OR ABOUT 12
MILES SOUTH OF GOSHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HENDERSON BY 215 PM CST...
MOSSY GROVE BY 225 PM CST...
ANTIOCH...BRUNDIDGE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND BRUNDIDGE BY 230 PM
CST...
BANKS BY 235 PM CST...
MONTICELLO BY 240 PM CST...
JOSIE...TANYARD AND BOOT HILL BY 245 PM CST...
Good afternoon,

Poor Alabama, getting it again!

Near Pensacola, got it first!

Link
Oh crap...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR ELMORE...
EASTERN AUTAUGA AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY...TORNADO EMERGENCY...

AT 304 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
JUST SOUTHWEST OF MILLBROOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ELMORE...BOB WOODRUFF LAKE AND SPEIGNER BY 315 PM CST...
WETUMPKA BY 320 PM CST...
WALLSBORO AND TEN CEDAR ESTATES BY 325 PM CST...
DEXTER BY 330 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VIOLENT TORNADOES.
IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY...UNDERGROUND IF
POSSIBLE!
Wow...Look at the velocities for that violent storm.....A clear strong rotation!
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

An upper trough lies across the Central United States with the associated cold front pushing slowing across the Western Gulf of Mexico and Deep South. Very dry confluent flow ahead of the trough providing fair weather across the Southern Plains, Texas and the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W. Further upstream, the front lies within the left entrance region of an upper ridge where upper divergence, showers and thunderstorms are more favored across the North-central Gulf and Southeast United States. As mentioned before, an upper ridge, whose axis extends from the Caribbean, is producing southwesterly flow with high-level cirrus clouds extending from the Eastern Pacific to South Florida and the Bahaman Islands. Surface reports over the Yucatan Plateau indicates clouds broken to overcast at 30000 ft. The south-southeasterly flow ahead of the frontal boundary is producing 4-5 ft across the Central-Eastern Gulf waters with swells of 6-9 ft confined to the area just behind the boundary. These seas should further increase as the front moves slowly across the Gulf (due to the blocking nature of the ridge) and surface high pressure establish itself over Mexico/Texas.

A surface ridge continues to build across the Western Atlantic producing 10-20 knot anticyclonic easterly flow and fair weather with patches of broken low-level cloudiness. This ridge is forecast to build slowly southwestward increasing both seas and winds along the Atlantic coasts of Florida, the Bahamas, the Grater Antilles and the Northeast Caribbean.

by W456
Streaming video from Montgomery, AL news station (link on the home page):
http://www.wsfa.com/
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Large-scale anticyclonic flow dominates the 200 mb thanks to an sprawling ridge that extends from the heartlands of Northern South America to the Western Tip of Cuba. Mid-upper level cloudiness and moisture originating from thunderstorms over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is seen rotating in and around the flow across Central America and the Southern Gulf (see above), over Cuba and the Caribbean west of 70W before reaching the Southwest Atlantic. While that part of the Caribbean lies within the divergence favored flank of the ridge, the Central and Eastern Caribbean is dominated by the dry confluent flow thus shower activity remains non-existent here and fair skies dominate. The trades are blowing at 10-25 knots producing seas of 6-7 ft with 12 ft seas along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean.

by W456
Thanks for the Link Odog... Alabama got hit hard by those Tornadoes today...
Hey W456...
Prattville, AL officials asking injured people to go to a triage center because the hospital is full.
Looks like waves are on the way for Gomex WFL surfers....nothing epic but some fun south swell
Looks like waves are on the way for Gomex WFL surfers....nothing epic but some fun south swell
Hallo, Dr Masters.
You wrote:
It was the coldest January since 1982


Not in Vermont!
This year we had few sub-zeros and nearly no snow at all.
For us it was like a month-long January thaw.

In 2004, we had three weeks of sub-zero temperatures, pretty much day and night.
Wild night in the south!

Mercies to all in harm's way. ♡ ♥ ♡
Oh Dear, Tornado'S
Yeah i was visiting the family in Molino and it was pretty bad around here. They live about 6 miles north of where the tornado came through but it was one heck of a thunderstorm. I haven't seen one that violent in a long time. Drove by the damage earlier today and it had snapped some trees like toothpicks and tore off a ton of roofs. Id estimate it at a EF2 maybe an EF3.
I saw Korintheman,s post about bad names for hurricanes.How about 1974,s deadly hurricane
Fifi?
88. listenerVT 7:47 PM CST on February 17, 2008
Hallo, Dr Masters.
You wrote:
It was the coldest January since 1982


Not in Vermont!
This year we had few sub-zeros and nearly no snow at all.
For us it was like a month-long January thaw.

In 2004, we had three weeks of sub-zero temperatures, pretty much day and night.



That is probably due to La Nina, which while making many places colder, the southern U.S. is usually warmer, this winter it seems to have also affected the East Coast. Also, here is a map of height anomalies from an article that Milwaukee put out on why record amounts of snow have fallin in Wisconsin:



The clash between warm and cold air is likely also a big factor in the unusual amount of tornado activity this year as well (and a shifted and stronger than normal jetstream).

That all likely (more in the linked article) explains why the winter here has been the way it has been; far wetter than normal and especially the last few winters and averaging warmer than normal with extreme temperature fluctuations, in one case a drop of 62 degrees in 12 hours (snow has been infrequent, but the two times more than a few tenths of an inch fell, it was the largest snowfall in years - though it only lasted for a few days in both cases as temperatures rapidly rose again).
MichaelSTL ~

That's a very cool graphic. Thanks!

Yeah, I knew it was due to La Nina; was just noting the exception VT (and to some extent New England) has been to the rest of North America.

But that graphic certainly shows how dynamic the change has been.
could be a twister on the Flordia/Georgia border NW of Tallahassee
looks like a nader north of Tallahassee in Georgia.....be careful..
GM to all


and hello storm77

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Much of the western part of the region lies within a southwesterly flow regime between an upper trough across the Plains and a ridge in the Caribbean. Dry confluence between the two features is causing mid-upper level subsidence/sinking air, which is providing a stable airmass allowing fair skies and tranquil conditions over Mexico, the Deep South and the Gulf west of 90W. At the surface, a slow moving cold front extends from a 1009 mb low at 23N/95W across the Southeast United States and into the Western Atlantic. The front remains relatively inactive south of 27N due to dry environment, with a 120 nmi swath of showers and thunderstorms further upstream where divergence aloft is favored enhanced by the moist surface return flow. Seas have remained unchanged from since the last synoptic report with relatively light swells ahead of the front and 6-7 ft behind. The cold front should quickly exit the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge retreats allowing high pressure to further establish its over the Deep South thus increasing seas to near 9ft.

A surface ridge continues to build across the Western Atlantic producing 10-20 knot anticyclonic easterly flow and fair weather with patches of broken low-level cloudiness. This ridge is forecast to build slowly southwestward increasing both seas and winds along the Atlantic coasts of Florida, the Bahamas, the Grater Antilles and the Northeast Caribbean.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Large-scale anticyclonic flow dominates the 200 mb thanks to a sprawling ridge that extends from the heartlands of Northern South America to the Western Tip of Cuba. Mid-upper level cloudiness and moisture originating from thunderstorms over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is seen rotating in and around the flow across Central America and into the Caribbean west of 70W before reaching the Southwest Atlantic. While that part of the Caribbean lies within the divergence favored flank of the ridge, the Central and Eastern Caribbean is dominated by the dry confluent flow thus shower activity remains non-existent here and fair skies to dominate.

A strong surface ridge in the North Atlantic continues to increase the pressure gradient across the Caribbean as was expected. This is allowing trades to substantially increase with most stations reporting 10-25 knot winds and gale force winds across the Southwest Caribbean where the gradient is always tightest. These trades are pushing 12 ft seas through the Southwest Caribbean with 3-5 ft expected elsewhere. The trades are also seen advecting their typical patches of moisture across the islands.

by W456
nice job W456! No waves yet here at SRQ/WFL Gomex, looks like we may get skunked for surf today/tomorrow AM. May bump up as the line comes through this PM. Guess it's work at the barn instead of play in the surf.
The sun is shining in Tampa. Not a good thing with the front coming as it could create some instability. Hopefully we will get some cloud cover before it gets here.
anyone have a clue as to what time this front is expected to affect Tampa/SRQ?
Been in hibernation this off season. Popped out for a surftrip to West Cent. Nicaraqua back in Jan. What was interesting for weather buffs was a cold front blew threw and it got surprisingly cool. I have never seen so many stars during the night. (no electricity was available) Have a good yr everyone.
Surfmom, I looks to me like it will arrive at around 2-3. And like TampaSpin said, it's very sunny which may allow for some stronger Storms. Just keep checking the radar to see how close it is.
...maybe before then...it's strange bc this initial line of storms keeps changing its forward speed. Right now it's goin' pretty fast
It looks like its tapped into some energy. Tampa Southward might have some stronger boomers than what they are getting northward now.
Where did everyone go? Is must be slow today except for the approaching front. It looks like parts of FL will get a little precip.
Cyclone hits Madagascar, threatens Mozambique...
Reuters Africa:
Link
109. V26R
Boy Ivan is living up to its Namesake
Good afternoon all! God bless Madagascar. I'm getting some supplies and donations ready to send to them. They will need help to recover. Madagascar is like the Puerto Rico of the Indian Ocean where they get constant hits from tropical cyclones.
Good afternoon!

Just wanted to post CPC'S lastest update on La Nina.They mention theres a good possiblity it may be present throught most if not all summer.Should be an interesting tropical season.

Climate Prediction Center 2/18/08 Update

www.AdriansWeather.com
What does everyone think about the still rather lively cold front moving through South Florida right now? I have placed thunderstorms (scattered at best) into my forecast due to the energy still associated with it and the intense moisture surge over the area.
Very interesting Adrian. It could become quite worrisome if this trend continues for the upcoming hurricane season. I will have to watch this over the next few months.
NewsChannel 5 Learns More About Global Warming

Last Update: 11:03 am

Reported by: Steve Weagle
Producer: Tom Kay
Photographer: Bob Leak


Since we were hit with the first of a series of hurricanes in 2004, many in our area become anxious when the storm season rolls in.

It doesn't help that some forecasters say changes in climate conditions will bring more hurricanes; although NewsChannel 5 found out it may not be as bad as expected.

Global warming is being blamed for melting icebergs, rising sea levels and adversely affecting the wildlife in the Polar Regions. And there's a fear it could hurt us by creating more hurricanes that would be more than the six significant hurricanes that hit Florida in three years.

“The strongest will get a little stronger and the number may increase some and the strongest will get a little stronger,” Hugh Willoughby a hurricane researcher.

Willoughby’s view of how hurricanes are going to respond to global warming is typical, but now there's a growing school of thought that global warming will actually sheer some of these hurricanes.

At the University of Miami's School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences where he's a professor, Brian Soden told NewsChannel 5 that global warming could rip apart some hurricanes.

“One of the things we found in the model projections of climate change over the next century is they do suggest an increase in the crosswinds in the atlantic and we call it wind shear,” says Soden.
Many scientists agree that the warmer temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean will warm the water and that will provide fuel for the hurricanes. But the models by Soden and some other scientists have found global warming creates another effect.

Soden says, "What our research has shown is that warming in the Atlantic sure it does increase the hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, but warming in these other basins, the Pacific and Indian Oceans that actually acts to stabilize the atmosphere and decrease hurricane activity in the Atlantic. So you have these two competing effects warming in the Atlantic and increasing the intensity and number of storms and warming in these remote basins which actually stabilize the atmosphere over the Atlantic."
Q: So what will happen when the two forces collide?

A: The net result from the models and theory is global warming should lead to very little changes of hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
While Soden and some researchers believe we won't see an increase in hurricane activity because of global warming, everyone agrees that all it takes is one hurricane to be deadly.
Record Report

Statement as of 4:20 PM EST on February 18, 2008

... Record high temperature set at Melbourne...[FL]

The high temperature was 88 degrees at Melbourne today. This breaks
the old record high for this date of 85... set in 1976.

This is the eighth day with the temperature reaching 80 degrees or
better.
Evening everybody,

I looked at some of the NRL IR pics of Ivan's approach to Madagascar. Would you believe that one small island on the east coast was in the eye for close to 3 hours!?!? The north end of that little island experienced the eyewall of Ivan for even longer . . .


Ivan getting ready to cross the Madegascar coast
Summer arrived in south florida weeks ago lol...
115. HIEXPRESS 6:13 PM EST on February 18, 2008
Record Report

Statement as of 4:20 PM EST on February 18, 2008

... Record high temperature set at Melbourne...[FL]

The high temperature was 88 degrees at Melbourne today. This breaks
the old record high for this date of 85... set in 1976.



Geez. I thought for a second that was Australia, and I was thinking "that's kinda cool for the summer, isn't it?
The warm and dry weather that has persisted in CA as of late will quickly come to an end over the next 24 hours. A weak area of low pressure is currently generating an area of mid-level clouds over the state, possibly leading to a light shower or two overnight. A splitting system will then move in overnight, bringing some light rain to much of CA tomorrow. Rainfall totals should be less than 0.25 inches across the board, and snow levels won’t drop much below 3000-3500 feet, even in the north. A somewhat stronger system will move in by Thursday, bringing more rainfall (0.50-1.5 inches in the north; 0.25-0.75 in. in the south) and lower snow levels (2500-3000 feet in the north), but generally nothing too impressive. The intensity of the third and apparently final system in the series, however, has been increased dramatically over the past 24 hours by virtually all of the models. The GFS and ECMWF are both currently insistent that the Saturday storm will be very imprssive, esp. in NorCal. The low center will be developing rapidly as it approaches the CA coast from the west, riding a powerful 180 kt jet with an exit region over central/northern CA. It currently appears that the low may undergo a period of rapid intensification as it approaches the coast on Saturday, bottoming out below 990 mb (per GFS) and below 980 mb (per ECMWF). Given that the low center will be passing directly over the San Francisco region, this is quite impressive. The benchmark for strong/damaging winds in NorCal from these types of systems is generally 995 mb, so this system certainly has the potential for strong/damaging winds (if the ECMWF is to be believed, rivaling the winds of the January storm). Intense heavy rain and embedded thunderstorm activity would also be a concern, but that would be secondary to the magnitude of the winds. Snow levels would be near to slightly below average–3000-4500 feet in the north. Given that this is a very new development, the forecast is liable (and even likely) to change quite a bit as we get closer to the event. I cannot say at this time what impact this storm will have on SoCal. At the moment, it looks like the focus will be on areas north of Santa Barbara, but again, this could change. It does appear that the pattern will begin to revert to a warmer and drier one after this weekend–recent GFS depictions of a very cold pattern have vanished altogether. Stay tuned, in any case

(Few tornados hit N.C)

02/18/2008 0412 am

2 miles E of Snow Hill, Greene County.

Tornado, reported by NWS storm survey.


*** 3 inj *** two Mobile homes with roofs off and two
story house leveled. Preliminary report from NWS storm
survey indicates damage was from a tornado... estimated
EF2 on Enhanced Fujita scale.



Just wanted to share an experience many of you would probably appreciate:

Last night at almost midnight EST, I was flying from Miami to New Orleans. The route took us right past the southern end of our latest neighborhood cold front and I happened to have a window seat on the right side of the plane, a 737.

We were cruising at 35000 feet, well above some low clouds. About 10 miles outside my window were the cumulus towers along the frontal boundary all of which was well illuminated by moonlight from above. The towers were very well defined with sheer cliff-like sides, at least on the south side. This went on for about an hour of the flight over the Gulf. An absolutely awesome view. The cloud tops were well above our flight level and overshooting tops evident. We all know they are there. We have seen pictures, the effects, and in some cases studied the thoery behind it all in college. But to cleary see the towers at eye level and follow the edge of the front for an hour...awesome. I have to guess that only pilots are afforded such a neat , in person, view on a regular basis.

To cap that off was the cloud-to-cloud lightning every 5 seconds or so which was also clearly visible. What a spectacle! I wish I had my camera and AA had killed the D@MN#D cabin lights!

To be honest, that hour was far more entertaining than anything else I saw in Miami including my 30 minute, one-on-one discussion with Bill Read (more on that later)!

BahaH I saw that little island and was wondering just how badly it hit --it looked like Ivan consumed it.
Well the front passed over head, SRQ/East of I75/WFL at approx 4:00 today --the clouds were spectacular in shape and in motion, It looked like it would thunder and pour, but it kinds blew over head and head out further out east. We were working horses on some very flat open acreage, beautiful, but a little scarey as I was afraid of lightening, but NADA - it was cool to watch the line and it was a clear line of clouds come tumbling in.
Got skunk as far as surfing today, barely rideable swell for an hour or so --had been expecting a better sell --rumour has it some little leftovers for the WFL Gomex SRQ area best to check the sites before being late for school or work
g'night -walking dog - check in tomorrow
456 i sent you mail
122. surfmom

Yeah, that island reminded me of Cozumel during Wilma. I would not want to be there . . .

121. atmoaggie

That sounds like it was a cool flight. Your're not the only one who would have been begging for the lights to go out - I've been known to stick my head under train curtain windows so I could get a night-time picture of storm clouds . . . LOL

We're looking forward to hearing about your conversation w/ Bill Read. Are u going to put it on your blog?
It is so frustrating to watch a weather system move 3,000 miles bringing heavy rain and snow across the entire country and then fall a part 120 from the west coast as it lifts to the north. I can do with the severe stuff but would really enjoy a good soaking.
Mother Nature took her rake to Madagascar and cleaned up a bit. Nothing new. So goes the never-ending cycle of life. No big deal to the fittest of creatures.
129. weathers4me 9:35 PM EST on February 18, 2008
Mother Nature took her rake to Madagascar and cleaned up a bit. Nothing new. So goes the never-ending cycle of life. No big deal to the fittest of creatures.



Huh?
Baha: Do you need clarification????
Northern California may be in for another monster storm Saturday evening like the one we had in January. One of the computer models is showing a "976 MB BOMB OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST" by that time. Plenty of moisture out there and the Pacific jet is ramping up. We shall see.
Fitness has nothing to do with survival in the face of nature's fury, its mostly about luck. Anyone who asserts otherwise is an arrogant fool who has never had to try.
134. V26R
Weathers4me
Think many of us would like clarification
135. V26R
Hi Shen, How long til your season starts?
Hi V26R Which season do yu have in mind?
hey weather for me maybe mother nature will give you a rakin one never knows funny how things work sometime
How cool!

Australian radar loops.

Click on Learmonth to see how close Nicholas is getting. Use the 256k view for longrange viewing.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200802181498.html

Southern Africa: Cyclone Ivan Sweeps Across Madagascar, Heads for Mozambique

UN Integrated Regional Information Networks

18 February 2008
Posted to the web 18 February 2008

Johannesburg

Tropical cyclone "Ivan" made its way across the Indian Ocean and slammed into Madagascar's northeastern coast on Sunday, 18 February. The exact extent of the destruction is not yet known, but government and aid agencies fear the worst as the storm makes its way through some of the island's most heavily populated areas.

According to Dia Styvanley Soa, spokeswoman for the National Office for Natural Disasters Preparedness (BNGRC), "Nine people were crushed under the rubble of a hotel," and have been presumed dead, at least two other people were reported dead and thousands more have been affected.


Ivan, a category four cyclone - the scale only goes to five - while still over the sea, and winds of up to 210km per hour just before it hit, made its way across the island as a category three, slowly diminishing in strength to a tropical storm. Its expected trajectory has taken it just north of the capital, Antananarivo.

No figures but fear for the worst

"There are no figures yet. Assessment are underway but we expect extensive damage, initially because of the winds, and over the next few days because of flooding," Edouard Libeau, Emergency Specialist at the UN's Children Fund (UNICEF) in Madagascar, told IRIN while he was stranded in Madagascar's second city, Toamasina, in the east of the island, while trying to reach the affected areas.

"We are 100 kilometres [south] from where the eye of the cyclone landed. There are very strong winds, infrastructure has been damaged, bridges have been flooded and we cannot pass. Electric cables are broken, roofs have been ripped off, one out of every five electricity poles is down." He said schools and hospitals had also been severely damaged.

Libeau estimated that over two million Malagasy lived in the towns, cities and villages that had been in the path of the storm, though he expected fewer would have been directly affected.

According to the BNGRC's Soa, "Ivan passed though highly populated areas and there was lots of rain. Almost all the towns where Ivan has passed are flooded now. The level of rivers and the sea is rising, and in the capital there is also risk of floods."

A BNGRC team and helicopter were deployed to assess the situation on Monday. "Assessment is the priority now, to know exactly the extent of the damage. We know there is a need for food, for shelter, but we don't know for how many people," Soa said.

I'm also noticing that Ivan's centre of circulation seems to have crossed the centre of the island without being seriously disrupted. Is there a chance for regeneration, bringing much unwanted rains to the Mozambique coast?
133. ShenValleyFlyFish 7:48 PM PST on February 18, 2008

Fitness has nothing to do with survival in the face of nature's fury, its mostly about luck. Anyone who asserts otherwise is an arrogant fool who has never had to try.


Reminds me of something I just read.
To Build a Fire, by Jack London
To Build a Fire was a great book.

I enjoyed it and recommend it.
Book? It's a lot shorter than you remember Sully. ;^) Check the link, bro. Read it again, I know you'll enjoy it. :^)
Well...short story...haha

Either way, it was good.
Hey Folks.
The Climate Prediction Center's New Feb 18th Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation is out in either PDF or PPT. Includes detailed analysis of the ongoing and evolving La Nina and its effects on atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation over the U.S., interactions with MJO events, and other interesting discussions. Also contains a list of historical reclassified La Nina and El Nino events since 1950 based on the ERSST.v3 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region calculated with respect to the 1971-2000 base period.

Most of the models now call for a continuation of La Nina at least well into the summer, and the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model ensemble predicts the La Nina will persist into the Fall, right through the heart of the Atlantic hurricane Season.

I had been reading the old monthly text 90 day forecast discussions that contained the ENSO update, but it seems these were discontinued. These weekly reports are very informative and are worth the larger download as they contain all of the related graphical products along with discussion.

\
Has anyone seen this in the long range GFS? Looks fun for Fl...This is Thursday the 28th.

143. LowerCal

That story is so well written I can barely stand to read it. What a genius.
GM all,interesting weather pattern developing for the east toward the end of the week.
Hey All..........Too early to tell (as discussed by Tallahassee NWS below this morning) but the warmer the SE gets over the next several days, the better the chances of another round of potentially severe weather going into the weekend/next week.....

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH UESDAY)...AFTER THE PROTECTING SFC RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A CLASSIC BATTLEGROUND SETS UP BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NW AND THE BUILDING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SE. WHERE THE CWA ENDS UP POSITIONED IN THIS BATTLEGROUND IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAR TO THE NW THE SUB TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT DOMINANT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT FROM THE DESERT SW. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S 00 UTC MODEL RUNS...THE PROJECTED CONFLUENCE ZONE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWARD WHICH WOULD PUT MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THU AND FRI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AS SFC WAVES RIDE EASTWARD ALONG STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...BEFORE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IT`S A BIT EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE SEVERE WX PROSPECTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A CURSORY LOOK WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN.


We shall see what happens but enjoy the nice weather for the rest of the week..........Spring is almost here.....
Good Morning Storm.........Another potential round of severe weather for the SE going into next week?

405
fxus64 klix 190929
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
329 am CST Tuesday Feb 19 2008


Short term...
Arctic cold front moving southward through central Arkansas this
morning. Return flow and moisture will begin today over the deep south.
The first signs of this will be the large area of low level clouds
over NE Mexico and adjacent Gulf waters moving north then NE toward
our area. This will also be the moisture that funnels along the
cold frontal axis while short wave ripples move along the slowly
advancing cold front providing extra lift to the moisture. This coupled
with the upper trough jet will begin to promote rainfall which
will invade the area from the SW by Wednesday. The cold front finally
sneaks its way to near the mcb area by Friday before stalling. A surface
low then forms along the front in south Texas and quickly moves NE
bringing the rain to an end during the day Sat. Location of the
boundary and distance away will determine our rain chances and
severe probabilities. Local model(ros) solutions are still
showing severe weather is a good probability and so no changes to
ongoing package have been made as things still look very good the
way they are displayed. Will mention severe weather possible in severe weather potential statement.
Well; I'll get back to work this morning but have a great day (especially Storm and Patrap).....I'm sure we will be back on here in force over the next few weeks as some typical severe weather develops going into March....(To my eyes, that damn El Nina seems to be "enhancing" chances for severe weather outbreaks accross the SE.................)...Take Care All
El Nino with earlier clashes of GOM Moisture and Cold pushes south, equals more Severe Outbreaks.

Encourage friends and relatives to invest in a Quality NOAA Ready Alert Radio.

Have a good day weathermanwannabe.
NOAA Weather Alert Radio info: Link
To Build a Fire illustrates the basic attitude of man to his environment. That's why everything is getting so messed up.
Heavy snow brings Greece to standstill

A raging snow storm that blanketed most of Greece over the weekend also continued into the early morning hours on Monday, plunging the country into sub-zero temperatures. Public transport buses were at a standstill on Monday in the wider Athens area, while ships remained in ports, public services remained closed, and schools and courthouses in the more severely-stricken prefectures were also closed. Scores of villages, mainly on the island of Crete, and in the prefectures of Evia, Argolida, Arcadia, Lakonia, Viotia, and the Cyclades islands were snowed in.

Attica, Evia, the Cyclades islands and Crete were the most hard hit by the continuing snow storm on Monday, while snow chains were required throughout most of the National Highway network and in most parts of Attica prefecture. Problems were also caused by a blanket of ice that has formed from partially-melted snow beneath the new snowfall.

In Attica, the "blue" (urban) buses, trolley buses and the tram lines were not operating.

The Athens Metro was running normally up to the Doukissis Plakentias terminal, and from there by suburban railway (Proastiakos) to Athens' Eleftherios Venizelos International Airport with some difficulties, while the ISAP railway announced early in the morning that was running from the Piraeus terminal only up to the Attikis Square station.

Although the airport reopened at 3:00 a.m., and snow plows were working continuously to keep runways open, scores of flights were cancelled due to low visibility and hazardous conditions at other domestic destination airports. According to the AIA, 461 flights (incoming and outgoing) are scheduled for Monday, but airlines had already cancelled 64 flights as of 10:00 a.m., and passengers are advised to contact their airline.

The state machine kicked into action immediately on Saturday at the outset of the storm, working round-the-clock to keep highways and central streets snow-free, and remained on alert on Monday.

According to the Civil Protection General Secretariat, assistance for citizens was required in only a few isolated instances, while citizens were requested to refrain from commuting if not necessary.

Meanwhile, more than 100 villages were snowed-in on the island of Crete -- 54 in Chania prefecture, 26 in Iraklion prefecture, 19 in Lasithi prefecture, and 5 in Rethymno prefecture -- as wel as 25 villages in Evia, 15 in Argolida, 3 in Arcadia, 9 in Lakonia, 2 in Viotia, and 4 in the Cyclades prefecture.

Temperatures in Athens dropped to -6C before dawn, while the coldest temperatures were recorded in Kozani, Grevena, Kastoria and Florina, where they plunged to -12C.
booya afternoon to all
121. atmoaggie 12:37 AM GMT on February 19, 2008
Just wanted to share an experience many of you would probably appreciate:

Last night at almost midnight EST, I was flying from Miami to New Orleans. The route took us right past the southern end of our latest neighborhood cold front and I happened to have a window seat on the right side of the plane, a 737.

We were cruising at 35000 feet, well above some low clouds. About 10 miles outside my window were the cumulus towers along the frontal boundary all of which was well illuminated by moonlight from above. The towers were very well defined with sheer cliff-like sides, at least on the south side. This went on for about an hour of the flight over the Gulf. An absolutely awesome view. The cloud tops were well above our flight level and overshooting tops evident. We all know they are there. We have seen pictures, the effects, and in some cases studied the thoery behind it all in college. But to cleary see the towers at eye level and follow the edge of the front for an hour...awesome. I have to guess that only pilots are afforded such a neat , in person, view on a regular basis.

To cap that off was the cloud-to-cloud lightning every 5 seconds or so which was also clearly visible. What a spectacle! I wish I had my camera and AA had killed the D@MN#D cabin lights!

To be honest, that hour was far more entertaining than anything else I saw in Miami including my 30 minute, one-on-one discussion with Bill Read (more on that later)!


Baha, the Bill Read discussion, oddly enough, was very little about tropical at all. Most of it was about gridded products NHC/NWS could make available to the marine weather community...data like currents, SST, wind analyses, wave analyses, etc.
We did talk a little about a few of the HRD researchers we both know, like Landsea, Powell and we also talked about the eventual replacement of QuikScat with HIRAD, or something like it.

HIRAD is the proposed space-based SFMR with a wide enough field of view to capture an entire storm's wind field.
Greetings earthling 456.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Where to start? First, a moist shallow layer of low clouds is seen along the coastal slopes of the Sierra Madre and the Gulf of Mexico west of 93W and north of 20N. This layer is tied to leftover moisture from the previous frontal boundary enhanced by the calm conditions associated with upper confluence and a weak surface ridge. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is dying across the Southern Gulf of Mexico from the Bay of Campeche to the Florida Straits. Weak surface high pressure over Louisiana producing fair weather across the Southeast United States and 10-20 knot easterly winds and 6-7 ft swells across the Gulf waters. These conditions are expected to remain relatively unchanged for the next 24 hrs.

A cold front is pushing its way across the Western Atlantic from the Florida Straits, across the Northern Bahamas to beyond 32N/65W, accompanied by a 120 nmi swath of cloudiness and showers. A surface ridge centered on a 1029 mb high near 34N/50W protrudes across the Atlantic ahead of the front providing 20 knot anticyclonic flow with fair weather and widely scattered patches of cloudiness.

by W456
hello atm
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper ridging and very dry stable flow covers most of the Caribbean Basin this evening thereby hindering shower activity and allowing fair conditions to exist at the surface. Meanwhile, scattered cloudiness and showers is seen along the southern Central American Isthmus in association with the ITCZ enhanced by the outflow (divergence aloft) accompanied by the upper ridge. Trades and swells are easterly at 10-20 knots and 6-7 ft, respectively. These conditions relaxed somewhat due to the passage of the frontal trough that broke down the ridge to the north of the region.

by W456