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A Close-Up Look at Last Week’s Perplexing Colorado Twisters

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 8:41 PM GMT on June 12, 2015

Early June is the most common time for tornadoes in Colorado, and last week served up a dramatic example. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center logged 13 preliminary tornado reports in Colorado on June 4 - 6. The tornado-generating thunderstorms were spawned by weak upper-level impulses from the southwest, combined with generous low-level moisture feeding into the state from the Gulf of Mexico. Two widely photographed twisters that seemed to bend the rules of tornado formation, both on June 4, caught the attention of national press and the blogosphere.


Figure 1. This damaging tornado south of Berthoud, CO, on Thursday, June 4, was visible from a deck in Broomfield, about 20 miles to the south. Image credit: Vince Miller.


A westward-moving tornado strikes the Front Range
The strongest Colorado tornado in seven years moved from the adjacent plains toward the foothills between Boulder and Fort Collins on Thursday afternoon. Rated by the NWS Denver/Boulder office as an EF3, the tornado began about 3 miles south of the town of Berthoud, then tracked west-northwest for about 5 miles, dissipating as it approached higher terrain. Several homes were destroyed and about a dozen others damaged. The highly visible tornado was seen by many residents of Longmont and the far north suburbs of Denver.


Figure 2. A home severely damaged in the tornado near Berthoud, CO, on June 4. Image credit: NWS Denver/Boulder.


Although Colorado has recently been averaging about 60 tornadoes per year, they’re uncommon west of Interstate 25 in the populated corridor from Denver to Cheyenne, Wyoming. Moreover, westward-moving tornadoes are quite unusual anywhere in the country. Parent thunderstorms are typically steered by flow through the deep layer of the atmosphere in which the storms reside. Typically, this flow has a west-to-east component ahead of upper-level impulses, where storms are most likely to develop. A supercell thunderstorm will sometimes move to the right of the vertically averaged wind (e.g., toward the east rather than the northeast), which often increases its tornado-producing potential.


Figure 3. High-resolution data from the CSU/CHILL research radar shows the thunderstorm in Larimer County, CO, at 6:34 pm CDT on Thursday, June 5, as it was producing a tornado south of Berthoud. Top image is reflectivity (precipitation); bottom image is velocity (winds toward/away from the radar). The areas marked “reflectivity minimum” (top) and “radial velocity couplet” (bottom) coincide with the approximate location of the tornado. Image credit: Pat Kennedy, CSU/CHILL National Radar Facility. To see the westward development of the storm while the tornado was occurring, check out this loop of imagery from the NWS radar in Cheyenne, WY. The tornado developed near the Boulder/Larimer county line just north of Longmont (LMO on the radar loop). Image credit: NWS/CIRA.


Aside from last week’s tornado near Berthoud, the only other F3/EF3 tornado that moved west of I-25 in Colorado developed around noon on May 22, 2008--and it also had a westward component to its motion. This powerful twister, the most expensive in Colorado history, carved a wide, 39-mile-long path that extended to the north-northwest from near Platteville through the town of Windsor, damaging hundreds of homes there. A team led by Russ Schumacher and Dan Lindsey (Colorado State University) analyzed the event in 2010 in a paper for the journal Weather and Forecasting. Upper-level winds on that day were from the southeast, and instability was unusually strong for the region, which enabled the Windsor storm to develop as a fairly classic supercell, albeit with an unusual track and location. As for last week’s Berthoud storm, which had a much more pronounced westward motion, radar data indicates that it was in a “back-building” stage, growing quickly toward the west while the tornado itself was occurring (see Figure 3). “The westward motion appears to be driven by some combination of storm dynamics and low-level upslope flow,” says Schumacher. Lindsey summarizes the common thread between two events: “It seems to me that virtually the only way to get a real supercellular tornado west of I-25 is to have a storm moving with a component toward the west. And this one certainly qualifies.”

How can a tornado spin anticyclonically?
Social media has been abuzz over the last few days with spectacular images of an anticyclonic tornado near Simla, Colorado, northeast of Colorado Springs. Perhaps the most iconic photo was taken by accomplished photographer and storm chaser Kelly DeLay. Rather than going for a close-up, DeLay captured the entire storm in its full majesty--and the resulting image shows not just one but two twisters.


Figure 4. A supercell thunderstorm near Simla, Colorado, produced two tornadoes on June 4--one anticylonic (lower left) and one cyclonic (lower right). The thunderstorm itself was rotating cyclonically. Image credit: Kelly DeLay.


Anticyclonic tornadoes spin in a clockwise fashion, in contrast to most of their peers. Most supercells in the Northern Hemisphere rotate cyclonically (counterclockwise), as do the tornadoes they produce. This isn’t a direct result of the Coriolis force, a function of Earth’s rotation that causes hurricanes and other large low-pressure centers to spin cyclonically. Thunderstorms and tornadoes are too small to be dictated by the Coroilis force (and so are toilets!). Instead, the juxtaposition of winds at different heights tends to cause a supercell in the Northern Hemisphere to spin cyclonically, especially when it’s moving toward the right of the vertically averaged wind. Sometimes an anticyclonic tornado (usually fairly weak) will develop as a satellite twister on the fringe of a tornado-producing, cyclonically rotating supercell. This appears to be the process that drove the Simla tornado shown in Figure 4 above. There’s another way that an anticyclonic tornado can develop. If a supercell happens to move toward the left of the vertically averaged wind, rather than toward the right, it will spin in the other direction--anticyclonically--and it can thus produce an anticyclonic tornado. Several events like this have been documented in case studies, including a 1998 event in California and one in South Dakota in 2006.

For more background, including perspective from tornado researcher Josh Wurman, see this informative June 8 article by Angela Fritz at Capital Weather Gang.

Tropical Storm Carlos staying offshore of Mexico
Tropical Storm Carlos continues to churn in the Pacific Ocean, about 200 miles south of the Mexican coast. With very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) beneath it and wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Carlos appears destined to undergo slow intensification through Monday. Satellite loops and radar out of Acapulco shows that the outer spiral bands of Carlos have pushed onshore, but the storm's west-northwest motion, parallel to the coast, should keep the heaviest rains just offshore. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches will likely affect portions of the Mexican coast over the weekend, and if Carlos takes a path slightly closer to the coast than expected, dangerous flooding rains will occur. By Wednesday, Carlos may pose a threat to Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, but the cooler waters and more stable air the storm will encounter as it approaches Baja should cause Carlos to weaken below hurricane strength before a potential landfall there. We’ll have a full update on Carlos by Monday morning at the latest.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Video 1. The late Jim Leonard, a famed hurricane chaser, captured the first known video of a Northern Hemisphere anticyclonic tornado on June 6, 1975, near Freedom, Oklahoma. More details on this and other events can be found in Jim’s online biography. The embedded video above can also be viewed directly at YouTube.


Figure 5. A high-resolution GOES-14 image from around 6:00 pm CDT on Thursday, June 5, as intense supercells were raging across northeast Colorado. The Simla tornado emerged from the southernmost storm, while the Berthoud tornado was in the northermost storm in Colorado. In this animated satellite loop, crosshatch symbols show the approximate locations and occurrence times of the tornadoes. The images in the loop were collected every minute by GOES-14. Image/animation credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CSU/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

Severe Weather Tornado tropical cyclone

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dynamic Duo....
Thanks for the update.
Thank You for the update and stunning picture. Everyone have a safe weather weekend; I am going to try to stay inside or in the shade this weekend.....These highs in the 90's in June in the Florida Big Bend are killing me in terms of any PM yard work and fishing on the weekend; rising early at sunrise and getting both done on Sat or Sunday, and back inside with a cool drink, by Noon.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
456 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLC083-122130-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-150612T2130Z/
MARION FL-
456 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY...

AT 456 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FORT MCCOY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCALA...FORT MCCOY...CITRA...SALT SPRINGS...ORANGE SPRINGS...
ANTHONY...LAKE DELANCY...SPARR...HOG VALLEY AND BURBANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 8168 2915 8206 2942 8217 2944 8206
2947 8206 2949 8203 2951 8194 2950 8191
2952 8188 2950 8184 2949 8184 2947 8177
2943 8178 2943 8174 2937 8174 2937 8167
2935 8166 2933 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 154DEG 13KT 2930 8199

$$
Those crosshatch symbols for the tornadoes on the hi-res loop emerge on two separate spiraling "towers" at the top of those particular cells; reminds me of the hot towers we often see in the circulation of intensifying tropical storms.

Heading home; here is a great NASA video on hot towers and hurricanes:


http://pmm.nasa.gov/education/videos/towers-tempe st
Got some nasty looking storms coming into Pinellas county from the south right now
I'm getting a few popup thunderstorms in the area now although nothing at the house. It's less than yesterday and they seem to dissipate almost as fast as they pop up. 94 degrees with a dewpoint of 72 so the atmosphere has plenty of energy if I can just get one headed to me. As usual, the radar makes it look like a lot more is happening than what is apparent on the ground.

Speaking of more happening than is apparent, this is what climatology says about genesis in the tropical Atlantic, which also includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This is the mean probability of a TC forming at any time from June until November 30. The yellow circle on the NHC map now would be equal to the "TWTC" line, which means "Too Weak to Classify". I assume the number is higher during September and October and lower the rest of the season but nonetheless, the probability of TC formation with any kind of disturbance is still quite high based just on climatology.



These are the maps for TC genesis probability over the next five days by the three of the four major models we have easy access to, the ECMWF not included because it costs lots of money FSU doesn't have.

The first is the ever exciting CMC with whopping 43% -



Next we have the GFS, which shows no genesis -



Then the UKMET, which also shows no genesis -



Finally, we have the "consensus" model, which reduces the percentage to 32% because the consensus shows there's no consensus, so the probability is reduced. This is really the only thing that's scientifically important, since we've seen countless instances of a single model getting all feverish over a system that never develops.



I'd also remind those that prefer to use this model that it is experimental, and I can find no data for verification. I'd certainly be reluctant to tie my wagon to any single model, but the CMC would be the least likely I'd pick if I had to pick one.
The Half Moon Bay buoy SW of San Francisco has this hour popped over 60, now sitting at 60.4, well over the average for the date. Coastal currents remain erratic instead of the normal steady out of the northwest.
Siberia registers its warmest recorded spring sparking new fears for rapid climate change

Some parts of Siberia were warmer than usual by 6C, with a host of anecdotal examples of normal meteorological rules being turned on their head. For a few days in late April, for example, the city of Irkutsk boasted higher temperatures than Madrid.

The ice on vast Lake Baikal was too thin or non-existent even in February and March, forcing the cancellation of a number of events.

In the past, it was safe to drive cars across the frozen lake, the deepest in the world.


Link
Quoting 9. BayFog:

The Half Moon Bay buoy SW of San Francisco has this hour popped over 60, now sitting at 60.4, well over the average for the date. Coastal currents remain erratic instead of the normal steady out of the northwest.
See what that buoy reports after midnight. That particular buoy has had problems for years with daytime heating skewing the temperature.
With already three significant tropical systems off the Mexican Pacific coast in a relatively short period of time, it seems likely that a good fetch of warm water ought to be surging northward already, coinciding with the intensifying solar radiation as solstice approaches.
Quoting 11. sar2401:

See what that buoy reports after midnight. That particular buoy has had problems for years with daytime heating skewing the temperature.

It's credible given that nearby buoys are also showing rising temps. The Monterey buoy is 59 plus and may exceed 60 next hour. The coolest reading on the coast usually comes from Bodega, and it shows 55.4 and rising. Normally this buoy would be about 50 at this time of year.
Quoting 10. ColoradoBob1:

Siberia registers its warmest recorded spring sparking new fears for rapid climate change

Some parts of Siberia were warmer than usual by 6C, with a host of anecdotal examples of normal meteorological rules being turned on their head. For a few days in late April, for example, the city of Irkutsk boasted higher temperatures than Madrid.

The ice on vast Lake Baikal was too thin or non-existent even in February and March, forcing the cancellation of a number of events.

In the past, it was safe to drive cars across the frozen lake, the deepest in the world.


Link


3 days ago -

Alaska just had its hottest May in 91 years

We already knew Alaska was having some crazy weather lately. That included a record 91 degrees in Eagle in May, the “hottest temperature ever recorded so early in the calendar year in our 49th state,” per our own Capital Weather Gang.

And now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the state as a whole experienced its warmest May in the weather books. As the agency puts it:

The Alaska statewide average temperature for May was the warmest on record in 91 years of record keeping at 44.9°F, 7.1°F above average. The warmth in Alaska was widespread with several cities were record warm, including Barrow and Juneau.


Link

More proof that Siberia and Alaska don't listen to AM Talk Radio.
Thanks, Bob & Jeff, for the interesting post. As it happens, my dog also spins cyclonically when she's excited - a real NASCAR dog.
Quoting 13. BayFog:


It's credible given that nearby buoys are also showing rising temps. The Monterey buoy is 59 plus and may exceed 60 next hour. The coolest reading on the coast usually comes from Bodega, and it shows 55.4 and rising. Normally this buoy would be about 50 at this time of year.


Climate Change’s ‘Blob’ Heats Up In Northeast Pacific

They call it The Blob. No, it’s not some campy 1950s horror flick featuring a gelatinous monstrosity from space aimed at devouring all life in its path. This Blob is a pool of much hotter than normal water that has become increasingly entrenched in the North-East Pacific. A surface zone of record ocean warmth that has persisted and intensified in the same region for the better part of two years.

Though it’s not the sci-fi movie Blob, this particular climate change monstrosity could well be described as stranger than fiction. It’s an ocean feature of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which has warded storms off the North American West Coast over the past couple of years. A likely upshot of an ongoing Arctic heating — setting off weather conditions that sparked both this year’s massive Northwest Territory Wildfires and the worst drought the California region has seen in at least 1,000 years. And like the sci-fi movie space monster of yore, the Northeast Pacific heat Blob has a nasty penchant for devouring ocean life of all kinds.


Link
Saw a neighbors trash can go bouncing down the street about 10 min ago along with small tree debris during the height of this thunderstorm, yeah it's a good sign we are getting a pretty impressive thunderstorm! . This is despite that the sea breeze was pinned at the beach. This has lasted surprisingly long for activity that is moving so fast. I have to go back to work, so I won't have time to check my gauge right now, but I'm guessing we got quite a bit yet again as it is flooding again in my street for the 4th time this month.

I'm surprised there wasn't a severe thunderstorm warning issued, as we had gusts up to about 50 mph, and we weren't even in the worst part. There are reports of trees down further southwest of me in the worst part. Trees don't fall in non-severe winds here unless they are old and rotted out, or even 60-70 mph unless it's long duration.

Quoting 17. Jedkins01:

Saw a neighbors trash can go bouncing down the street about 10 min ago along with small tree debris during the height of this thunderstorm, yeah it's a good sign we are getting a pretty impressive thunderstorm! . This is despite that the sea breeze was pinned at the beach. I suspect that the Bay produced enough of a sea breeze for us to get a good thunderstorm here. Because the strong activity in Manatee rapidly spread northward just in time for us to get a really heavy thunderstorm. This has lasted surprisingly long for activity that is moving so fast. I have to go back to work, so I won't have time to check my gauge right now, but I'm guessing we got quite a bit yet again as it is flooding again in my street for the 4th time this month.

I'm surprised there wasn't a severe thunderstorm warning issued, as we had gusts up to about 50 mph, and we weren't even in the worst part. There are reports of trees down further southwest of me in the worst part. Trees don't fall in non-severe winds here unless they are old and rotted out, or even 60-70 mph unless it's long duration.

It seems there may have been severe level winds between radar scans, as large live oak trees don't fall unless they are rotten out here, they normally can take hurricane force winds if they are healthy.



Still raining steadily here right now. Whole event started for me an hour ago
Quoting 17. Jedkins01:

Saw a neighbors trash can go bouncing down the street about 10 min ago along with small tree debris during the height of this thunderstorm, yeah it's a good sign we are getting a pretty impressive thunderstorm! . This is despite that the sea breeze was pinned at the beach. I suspect that the Bay produced enough of a sea breeze for us to get a good thunderstorm here. Because the strong activity in Manatee rapidly spread northward just in time for us to get a really heavy thunderstorm. This has lasted surprisingly long for activity that is moving so fast. I have to go back to work, so I won't have time to check my gauge right now, but I'm guessing we got quite a bit yet again as it is flooding again in my street for the 4th time this month.

I'm surprised there wasn't a severe thunderstorm warning issued, as we had gusts up to about 50 mph, and we weren't even in the worst part. There are reports of trees down further southwest of me in the worst part. Trees don't fall in non-severe winds here unless they are old and rotted out, or even 60-70 mph unless it's long duration.

It seems there may have been severe level winds between radar scans, as large live oak trees don't fall unless they are rotten out here, they normally can take hurricane force winds if they are healthy.



Gee whiz! You guys on the west coast keep getting hammered while those near the east coast continue to bake and be dry for the most part. We did get 1.45" of rain from a nice storm on Wednesday but nothing today or yesterday and the next 4-5 days look precip free with temps in the mid to upper 90's. I don't remember a June this dry for where i live in Sanford by Lake Jesup. Only 2.88" so far for the month and coming off a dry May
Quoting 17. Jedkins01:

Saw a neighbors trash can go bouncing down the street about 10 min ago along with small tree debris during the height of this thunderstorm, yeah it's a good sign we are getting a pretty impressive thunderstorm! . This is despite that the sea breeze was pinned at the beach. I suspect that the Bay produced enough of a sea breeze for us to get a good thunderstorm here. Because the strong activity in Manatee rapidly spread northward just in time for us to get a really heavy thunderstorm. This has lasted surprisingly long for activity that is moving so fast. I have to go back to work, so I won't have time to check my gauge right now, but I'm guessing we got quite a bit yet again as it is flooding again in my street for the 4th time this month.

I'm surprised there wasn't a severe thunderstorm warning issued, as we had gusts up to about 50 mph, and we weren't even in the worst part. There are reports of trees down further southwest of me in the worst part. Trees don't fall in non-severe winds here unless they are old and rotted out, or even 60-70 mph unless it's long duration.

It seems there may have been severe level winds between radar scans, as large live oak trees don't fall unless they are rotten out here, they normally can take hurricane force winds if they are healthy.

yes its a bad storm, I got a huge oak tree branch that came crashing down in my backyard earlier whew..and more coming from inland..nws says it should be over 8-9 pm tonight...ALOT of Lightning too
Quoting 13. BayFog:


It's credible given that nearby buoys are also showing rising temps. The Monterey buoy is 59 plus and may exceed 60 next hour. The coolest reading on the coast usually comes from Bodega, and it shows 55.4 and rising. Normally this buoy would be about 50 at this time of year.
That;s pretty warm for Bodega Bay, no doubt. What happened last year? Didn't it get into the mid-60's for a while during July? I'm not sure about the idea these storms (of which Carlos still has some work to do) have really created any kind of warm water fetch. What they have done is turn NE as they weakened, and gave some shower and thunderstorm activity to the desert Southwest. Unfortunately, that also cuts you off for any significant impact in the Bay Area.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
533 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLZ050-151-251-122215-
PINELLAS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
533 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES...

AT 532 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND TAMPA BAY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAMPA...CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT
PETERSBURG...DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...LUTZ...ST. PETERSBURG...ST.
PETE BEACH...TIERRA VERDE...TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EGYPT
LAKE-LETO...EAST LAKE...GREATER NORTHDALE...BAY PINES...RIDGECREST...
PALM HARBOR...TOWN `N` COUNTRY AND MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 2815 8280 2817 8248 2784 8247 2782 8248
2786 8255 2796 8255 2797 8265 2804 8268
2794 8272 2782 8259 2758 8276 2758 8277
2773 8275 2773 8270 2775 8277 2783 8276
2779 8279 2786 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 123DEG 22KT 2781 8275
$$
18Z GFS
joins the CMC/GEM
and landfall on E Tex/W La coast
also stronger that previous run

Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

18Z GFS
joins the CMC/GEM
and landfall on E Tex/W La coast
also stronger that previous run


strange, the NHC doesn't think anything much will form out of it in the gulf due to very high winds aloft..we'll see what happens in a few days.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC019-031-122315-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0114.150612T2230Z-150612T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
630 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 629 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDDLEBURG...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. NICKEL
SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ORANGE PARK...MIDDLEBURG...DOCTORS INLET...CECIL
FIELD...ORTEGA...MAXVILLE...OAKLEAF PLANTATION...LAKESIDE...
BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK TERRACE...PENNEY FARMS...JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS
AND ASBURY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

anyway you can't say there is no model support

the models that do show this system are

GFS
CMC/GEM
EURO
NAVGEM
HWRF
Ensembles
FIM/NOAA
NAM
Quoting 21. sar2401:

That;s pretty warm for Bodega Bay, no doubt. What happened last year? Didn't it get into the mid-60's for a while during July? I'm not sure about the idea these storms (of which Carlos still has some work to do) have really created any kind of warm water fetch. What they have done is turn NE as they weakened, and gave some shower and thunderstorm activity to the desert Southwest. Unfortunately, that also cuts you off for any significant impact in the Bay Area.

Not only did we pop 60 by about July, but the warm SSTs lasted well into December. The fact that Bodega topped 60 was significant. I noticed that when the coastal temps began to dip in late December (as I recall), that it was the SF buoy that first showed the decline. I don't know why but maybe it has something to do with underwater topography or some other unknown subsurface dynamic. Incidentally, the dip in SSTs seemed to coincide with the onset of dryness after some early season downpours, the alleged "atmospheric river" event if you recall. :-) Maybe cold runoff had some effect at the SF buoy.
Quoting 25. LargoFl:

strange, the NHC doesn't think anything much will form out of it in the gulf due to very high winds aloft..we'll see what happens in a few days.


well I stated that NHC may change their view
I think they will

anyway lets wait and see

anyway I'll be back around 6:30 ish
Quoting 24. wunderkidcayman:

18Z GFS
joins the CMC/GEM
and landfall on E Tex/W La coast
also stronger that previous run


Did you notice that low goes down to 1000 mb over Ohio at hour 144 and and 994 mb low over upper NY state at hour 156 and all the way down to 983 mb over Labrador at hour 194? The last time the GFS did this was with the forecast crossover low that was also supposed to be developing in the Gulf right about now. What makes you think it will be different this time?
Every time I read of some really crazy denier claim . Like Inhofe this week , "We are winning".

Nature , as always is speaking truth to power.

Alaska just had its hottest May in 91 years

And

Siberia registers its warmest recorded spring sparking new fears for rapid climate change

Some one needs to take these people to the next methane hydrate bow out , and throw their sorry butts, into the " hoax hole ".

Well this looks like Bill from 2003. Anyone else agree.
At 2:50, Half Moon Bay buoy hit 61 F. Monterey 59.7 F. Bodega 56.1. SF just outside the Gate 59.9.
TORNADO WARNING
NYC001-057-093-095-122330-
/O.NEW.KALY.TO.W.0002.150612T2244Z-150612T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHWESTERN ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 643 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL BRIDGE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COBLESKILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CENTRAL BRIDGE AROUND 650 PM EDT.
SCHOHARIE AROUND 655 PM EDT.
DELANSON AROUND 705 PM EDT.
DUANESBURG AND BERNE AROUND 715 PM EDT.
ALTAMONT AROUND 725 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SLOANSVILLE...VROMAN CORNERS...GALLUPVILLE...SIDNEY CORNERS...
DUANE...KILMARTIN CORNERS...DUANE MANSION...BRAMAN CORNERS...SHUTTER
CORNERS AND EAST TOWNSHIP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSALBANY OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC135-122330-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0027.150612T2244Z-150612T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS
...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 540 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOLDSMITH...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WEST ODESSA AROUND 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 10230 3177 10250 3190 10273 3208 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 311DEG 17KT 3195 10263

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN
Interesting blog doc! Don't anticyclonic tornadoes usually form on the southern part of the RFD, like with el reno in 2013?
Tweets coming out of the NWS-Midland office at a pretty rapid pace.
Quoting 37. LAbonbon:




These storms are making baseball hail.
Quoting 38. LAbonbon:



I'm in the path of this cell headed towards Schenectady/Troy. I'm not in a Tornado warning (yet ?) But about to hit the basement.
Very cool information. As I posted on here rather excitedly that night the Berthoud tornado was about five miles north of my house. It was the first tornado I ever saw in person. Here is a photo from the end of my street.



Unfortunately I only had my phone. I need to remember to keep the good camera in the car when there is weather in the area. The westward motion did seem odd at the time, a few commentators on here also expressed surprise, but I did not realize how rare that is at the time. Overall a very cool first tornado experience and also good that no one was injured.

Here we go again....
The dew point at Lubbock today was 66F degrees . Jack rabbits carry canteens around Lubbock. Every one East of there, buckle your chin strap.
LAbonbon - that NY cell has been tornado warned for four hours now as it has been following RT 20 eastward for the last 150 miles.
Quoting 42. ndscott50:

Very cool information. As I posted on here rather excitedly that night the Berthoud tornado was about five miles north of my house. It was the first tornado I ever saw in person. Here is a photo from the end of my street.



Unfortunately I only had my phone. I need to remember to keep the good camera in the car when there is weather in the area. The westward motion did seem odd at the time, a few commentators on here also expressed surprise, but I did not realize how rare that is at the time. Overall a very cool first tornado experience and also good that no one was injured.


Is there some trick to getting a photo to post from Facebook? I can't seem to figure it out.

Quoting 23. LargoFl:




Wet season isn't a term just thrown up in the air, I was in Florida in November and February and it was dry as a bone.
waiting for the update at 8pm from the national hurricane center soon
Quoting 47. ndscott50:



Is there some trick to getting a photo to post from Facebook? I can't seem to figure it out.



You can upload to wu, or use photobucket or imgur. I use imgur.

I don't use FB, so I'm not sure what the issue would be.
Quoting 41. winter123:


I'm in the path of this cell headed towards Schenectady/Troy. I'm not in a Tornado warning (yet ?) But about to hit the basement.

Stay safe up there! Let us know when you emerge, if you don't mind?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico are primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This
activity is expected to move northwestward into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. Development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur due to marginal upper-level winds while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan
8pm TWO upped to 10%/20%

As I'd expected
Although I thought the numbers would be slightly bit higher
Eitherway upward trend we go
I think just maybe we could see an Invest tonight or tomorrow
Shear would have to drop considerably- it's ~40kts right now. But stranger things have happened than a disturbance like this organizing into a weak, sheared TD or TS. Probably won't develop at all, but worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.


Quoting 45. echucker:

LAbonbon - that NY cell has been tornado warned for four hours now as it has been following RT 20 eastward for the last 150 miles.

Yeah, I'm coming on a little late in the game.

Quoting 51. LAbonbon:


Stay safe up there! Let us know when you emerge, if you don't mind?

The storm finally fell apart. I'm a little let down but then I remembered I own a house and would have had to clean up the mess. From what I saw a tornado likely never formed but the storm had been rotating since south of Syracuse. And now onto the giant line of storms stretched across the state.
Quoting 57. MAweatherboy1:

Shear would have to drop considerably- it's ~40kts right now. But stranger things have happened than a disturbance like this organizing into a weak, sheared TD or TS. Probably won't develop at all, but worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.



Oh well if it's 40kts then it has been dropping

Overnight last night and this morning it was 50-60kts so it dropping down to 40 just shows that it is

Anyway the models show shear dropping over the system down to 5-20kts and that would be perfect for a sheared TD or TS

I would not say it won't develop
right now I'd put it more like 50/50 or 60/40 of development possibility

Depending on what I see later then it may go up
Quoting 59. winter123:


The storm finally fell apart. I'm a little let down but then I remembered I own a house and would have had to clean up the mess. From what I saw a tornado likely never formed but the storm had been rotating since south of Syracuse. And now onto the giant line of storms stretched across the state.

I'd call that a blessing :)

Looking at the storm reports, there are loads of wind damage reports up there.


Link
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico are primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This
activity is expected to move northwestward into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. Development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur due to marginal upper-level winds while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
From Texas A&M Today:
Record Flooding Could Mean Big Problems for Gulf of Mexico
Record rainfall totals in many parts of Texas the past few weeks means a record amount of freshwater pouring into the Gulf of Mexico – as high as 10 times the normal rate – and that could lead to huge problems for marine life and commercial fishermen very soon, warns a Texas A&M University oceanographer.

Steve DiMarco, professor of oceanography, says the huge rainfall amounts in the last month mean that such rivers as the Brazos, Trinity, Colorado and others currently are carrying record amounts of water flowing southward to the Gulf, similar to a situation that occurred in 2007 when rivers carried 10 to 20 times the normal seasonal rate of discharge into the Gulf.

“When this happens, the coastal waters become stratified, meaning that the lighter freshwater will stay at the surface and cap the saltier, and heavier, ocean water beneath,” he explains. “Because the salt water is isolated from the atmosphere, oxygen levels in that water will begin to drop.

(Read more here)

Oh boy, more rain. Forecast from KFDM Beaumont, TX
Where's Pedley and the CA crew? Just noticed the flash flood warnings issued for SoCal. But then again it is a Friday night...

Hmmm...maybe I should find something to do besides weather watching. On that note, you all have a wonderful (and safe) evening.

Good night, all.

Quoting 60. wunderkidcayman:


Oh well if it's 40kts then it has been dropping

Overnight last night and this morning it was 50-60kts so it dropping down to 40 just shows that it is

Anyway the models show shear dropping over the system down to 5-20kts and that would be perfect for a sheared TD or TS

I would not say it won't develop
right now I'd put it more like 50/50 or 60/40 of development possibility

Depending on what I see later then it may go up


OMG! This could turn into another storm like Hurricane Audrey in June 1957! Pray for Houston.
This next line doesn't look that bad but getting a lot of wind and lightning.
Quoting 54. hydrus:




ULL's can look so graceful
Quoting 64. LAbonbon:

Where's Pedley and the CA crew? Just noticed the flash flood warnings issued for SoCal. But then again it is a Friday night...

Hmmm...maybe I should find something to do besides weather watching. On that note, you all have a wonderful (and safe) evening.

Good night, all.




Those storms are out in the Antelope Valley. Nothing that will affect us in the LA basin/Inland Empire.
Quoting 60. wunderkidcayman:


Oh well if it's 40kts then it has been dropping

Overnight last night and this morning it was 50-60kts so it dropping down to 40 just shows that it is

Anyway the models show shear dropping over the system down to 5-20kts and that would be perfect for a sheared TD or TS

I would not say it won't develop
right now I'd put it more like 50/50 or 60/40 of development possibility

Depending on what I see later then it may go up
Yea, whatever.
Watch for the west wind by Roatan that's not some outlow from the ITCZ or natural flow due to topograhy.
When that happens...get back to us...until then, don't expect much, especially in the North central SW Caribbean.
Quoting 43. PedleyCA:


Here we go again....


I rarely comment, but I'm back in Taiwan for a business trip. It is 8:35am and feels like 98. I'm already missing my low/no humidity LA weather...
The 850mb vort has increased a bit further southeast over Honduras

Shear is decreasing over the W/NW Caribbean and just NNW above the Yucatan

Conditions becoming slightly more favorable, still has a long way to go though
Quoting 64. LAbonbon:

Where's Pedley and the CA crew? Just noticed the flash flood warnings issued for SoCal. But then again it is a Friday night...

Hmmm...maybe I should find something to do besides weather watching. On that note, you all have a wonderful (and safe) evening.

Good night, all.


G,night.Bon..
Quoting 42. ndscott50:

Very cool information. As I posted on here rather excitedly that night the Berthoud tornado was about five miles north of my house. It was the first tornado I ever saw in person. Here is a photo from the end of my street.



Unfortunately I only had my phone. I need to remember to keep the good camera in the car when there is weather in the area. The westward motion did seem odd at the time, a few commentators on here also expressed surprise, but I did not realize how rare that is at the time. Overall a very cool first tornado experience and also good that no one was injured.




Figured it out

Thanks LAbonbon!
Quoting 66. winter123:

This next line doesn't look that bad but getting a lot of wind and lightning.


We just had hail for about a minute. Hail is quite unusual for upstate New York. Its been years since I witnessed it. Technically I only heard it on the metal porch roof since its quite dark.
I doubt it'll devolp at all but either way do you think it's possible that the surge of moisture could shift eastward toward the FL panhandle or Alabama?
Quoting 55. wunderkidcayman:

I think just maybe we could see an Invest tonight or tomorrow
Stranger things have hppend in the gulf...Don' ever underestimate that Area.Have we forgeten about Allison? Weak storm but the flooding was memorable..
Hey Colorado Bob,
I hear you regarding Senator Inhofe. He received about 1.8 million in campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry. Another 1.2 million went to Dr. Willie Soon. It could be 130 F in Oklahoma City and Senator Inhofe from his air conditioned office in Washington D.C. would call it global cooling. The oil industry owns Oklahoma's politicians. Don't expect change there anytime soon.

You want to talk about weird, it was 66 F and sunny in Seattle on December 9, 2014 (new all time max for December). Seattle set 9 new record maximums in 2014 and zero new record minimums. Last winter, Seattle had extended periods of mild partly sunny weather with occasional rainstorms (atmospheric rivers). Weird.

Sea Surface Temperatures in the eastern Pacific ocean are 2 to 4 F above normal, It's been dubbed the Warm Water Blob. The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge's (RRR) and it's buddy the Warm Water Blob are responsible for the weather in 2014 and 2015 on the West Coast to be similar to what climate models predict to be normal for 2070.

If a moderate El Nino and the warm water blob last through the winter of 2016, it will be a very interesting year.


Quoting 71. stormpetrol:

The 850mb vort has increased a bit further southeast over Honduras

Shear is decreasing over the W/NW Caribbean and just NNW above the Yucatan

Conditions becoming slightly more favorable, still has a long way to go though


Give it time should be more favoured

Quoting 75. TCweatherman:

I doubt it'll devolp at all but either way do you think it's possible that the surge of moisture could shift eastward toward the FL panhandle or Alabama?


It has a moderate Chance I say

It is possible the question that would be better asked is how probable is it
The probability of the surge of moisture (or the storm) shifting E towards those areas I would have to say low to moderate
At of now most of the models that show this system moves it N-NNW taking it towards Tx and at the farthest E would be W Louisiana now if the models start to trend more E like over E Louisiana Mississippi and Alabama then you might be on to something but at this time no I don't think the bulk of the moisture will impact those area
Those areas might get some isolated to scattered T-Storms on the outer edge
As this time
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:

Stranger things have hppend in the gulf...Don' ever underestimate that Area.Have we forgeten about Allison? Weak storm but the flooding was memorable..

Allison?

Remind me about Allison
People like to point out cases in which disturbances that looked like they wouldn't amount to much ended up becoming significant tropical cyclones, but at the end of the day, those cases are few and far between. Upper-level winds are forecast to deter significant development in the Gulf, and we're likely just to see a messy and disorganized tropical disturbance that delivers rain where it's unneeded. That isn't to say we shouldn't watch it anyways--we're weather enthusiasts. :)
Quoting 80. wunderkidcayman:


Allison?

Remind me about Allison

89 Allison
95 Allison
Or
01 Allison
Quoting 77. VashonIsland:

Hey Colorado Bob,
I hear you regarding Senator Inhofe. He received about 1.8 million in campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry. Another 1.2 million went to Dr. Willie Soon. It could be 130 F in Oklahoma City and Senator Inhofe from his air conditioned office in Washington D.C. would call it global cooling. The oil industry owns Oklahoma's politicians. Don't expect change there anytime soon.

You want to talk about weird, it was 66 F and sunny in Seattle on December 9, 2014 (new all time max for December). Seattle set 9 new record maximums in 2014 and zero new record minimums. Last winter, Seattle had extended periods of mild partly sunny weather with occasional rainstorms (atmospheric rivers). Weird.

Sea Surface Temperatures in the eastern Pacific ocean are 2 to 4 F above normal, It's been dubbed the Warm Water Blob. The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge's (RRR) and it's buddy the Warm Water Blob are responsible for the weather in 2014 and 2015 on the West Coast to be similar to what climate models predict to be normal for 2070.

If a moderate El Nino and the warm water blob last through the winter of 2016, it will be a very interesting year.



Since you're making assertions, why not source them to give more weight?
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:

Stranger things have hppend in the gulf...Don' ever underestimate that Area.Have we forgeten about Allison? Weak storm but the flooding was memorable..




Look at this advancing Army of lows on the South.
Quoting 81. TropicalAnalystwx13:

People like to point out cases in which disturbances that looked like they wouldn't amount to much ended up becoming significant tropical cyclones, but at the end of the day, those cases are few and far between. Upper-level winds are forecast to deter significant development in the Gulf, and we're likely just to see a messy and disorganized tropical disturbance that delivers rain where it's unneeded. That isn't to say we shouldn't watch it anyways--we're weather enthusiasts. :)


*geeks

Fixed it.
Quoting 81. TropicalAnalystwx13:

People like to point out cases in which disturbances that looked like they wouldn't amount to much ended up becoming significant tropical cyclones, but at the end of the day, those cases are few and far between. Upper-level winds are forecast to deter significant development in the Gulf, and we're likely just to see a messy and disorganized tropical disturbance that delivers rain where it's unneeded. That isn't to say we shouldn't watch it anyways--we're weather enthusiasts. :)
You missed the point.The point is that people look at winds but flooding can be just as bad if not worst.Allison was weak and disorganized and I'm sure if the blog existed back then people wouldn't give it a second glance because it was "weak" but the flooding it caused was bad enough to be memorable.
Yea, we are in desperate need of a TS well at least I am haha.
Quoting 79. wunderkidcayman:



It has a moderate Chance I say

It is possible the question that would be better asked is how probable is it
The probability of the surge of moisture (or the storm) shifting E towards those areas I would have to say low to moderate
At of now most of the models that show this system moves it N-NNW taking it towards Tx and at the farthest E would be W Louisiana now if the models start to trend more E like over E Louisiana Mississippi and Alabama then you might be on to something but at this time no I don't think the bulk of the moisture will impact those area
Those areas might get some isolated to scattered T-Storms on the outer edge
As this time
Quoting 81. TropicalAnalystwx13:

People like to point out cases in which disturbances that looked like they wouldn't amount to much ended up becoming significant tropical cyclones, but at the end of the day, those cases are few and far between. Upper-level winds are forecast to deter significant development in the Gulf, and we're likely just to see a messy and disorganized tropical disturbance that delivers rain where it's unneeded. That isn't to say we shouldn't watch it anyways--we're weather enthusiasts. :)
 



I know SE TX could do without that rain.
Quoting 87. washingtonian115:

You missed the point.The point is that people look at winds but flooding can be just as bad if not worst.Allison was weak and disorganized and I'm sure if the blog existed back then people wouldn't give it a second glance because it was "weak" but the flooding it caused was bad enough to be memorable.

It was more of a general statement--certainly not directed at you, as your point is valid.
EPAC: Carlos is having some problems as it looks like its weakening a bit with the wind shear increasing again. Now, future intensification is questionable and we should see how this plays out.

ATL: Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, there is a surface through that looks dragged but might be something to watch down the road. I'll be eyeing it closely.

Read more...
As an ‘acute’ wildfire season looms, White House sends $ 110 million to drought-stricken West

Link
Quoting 89. Grothar:




Yep

Quoting 90. Grothar:




Ooh wow that was quick early this morning it was 18% then 48% now 99%
Quoting 87. washingtonian115:

You missed the point.The point is that people look at winds but flooding can be just as bad if not worst.Allison was weak and disorganized and I'm sure if the blog existed back then people wouldn't give it a second glance because it was "weak" but the flooding it caused was bad enough to be memorable.


Interesting that whether or not this develops, the Houston area could see more extended rain fall from it. They're not very thirsty at the moment as most of us have heard.
Quoting 90. Grothar:




About that 99% TC probability, Grothar. Could SE TX be facing another storm like Audrey?
Quoting 96. win1gamegiantsplease:



Interesting that whether or not this develops, the Houston area could see more extended rain fall from it. They're not very thirsty at the moment as most of us have heard.
I'm sure most Texans would not be pleased to see more rain in the forecast.
Quoting 98. washingtonian115:

I'm sure most Texans would not be pleased to see more rain in the forecast.


The Gin is going.

Link
Quoting 65. pureet1948:



OMG! This could turn into another storm like Hurricane Audrey in June 1957! Pray for Houston.
Quoting 97. pureet1948:



About that 99% TC probability, Grothar. Could SE TX be facing another storm like Audrey?


Dude chill out its gonna be nothing at all like Audrey
Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:



The Gin is going.

Link


No, we would not be pleased to see more rain in our forecast. But we would be even less pleased to see a major hurricane barreling down on our area, as the GFS is advertising. That's why I keep mentioning 1957's Audrey. That one was a June storm, and it caused major death and destruction from SE TX to SW Louisiana.
Quoting 100. wunderkidcayman:



Dude chill out its gonna be nothing at all like Audrey


Alicia (1983), then?
Quoting 101. pureet1948:



No, we would not be pleased to see more rain in our forecast. But we would be even less pleased to see a major hurricane barreling down on our area, as the GFS is advertising. That's why I keep mentioning 1957's Audrey. That one was a June storm, and it caused major death and destruction from SE TX to SW Louisiana.


GFS is not forecasting anything close to Audrey
I would obviously dismiss claims that this is another Audrey or something ridiculous, but if a tropical depression or storm does impact Texas next week there could be problems. They're already waterlogged as it is.
Quoting 101. pureet1948:



No, we would not be pleased to see more rain in our forecast. But we would be even less pleased to see a major hurricane barreling down on our area, as the GFS is advertising. That's why I keep mentioning 1957's Audrey. That one was a June storm, and it caused major death and destruction from SE TX to SW Louisiana.


I missed the GFS with a major hitting Texas.
Quoting 102. pureet1948:



Alicia (1983), then?


Dude chill
It ain't gonna be a major hurricane
It would be very very large luck if it ever becomes a hurricane much less

Quoting 103. Hurricanes101:



GFS is not forecasting anything close to Audrey

Quoting 104. CybrTeddy:

I would obviously dismiss claims that this is another Audrey or something ridiculous, but if a tropical depression or storm does impact Texas next week there could be problems. They're already waterlogged as it is.


Yes it's quite ridiculous to claim this could be another Audrey or Alice

TD or TS a strong TS at best
Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:



The Gin is going.

Link


Holy freshman year of high school
Quoting 79. wunderkidcayman:



It has a moderate Chance I say

It is possible the question that would be better asked is how probable is it
The probability of the surge of moisture (or the storm) shifting E towards those areas I would have to say low to moderate
At of now most of the models that show this system moves it N-NNW taking it towards Tx and at the farthest E would be W Louisiana now if the models start to trend more E like over E Louisiana Mississippi and Alabama then you might be on to something but at this time no I don't think the bulk of the moisture will impact those area
Those areas might get some isolated to scattered T-Storms on the outer edge
As this time


At least the Caymans is not in line for this one - if it were to develop.
Quoting 101. pureet1948:



No, we would not be pleased to see more rain in our forecast. But we would be even less pleased to see a major hurricane barreling down on our area, as the GFS is advertising. That's why I keep mentioning 1957's Audrey. That one was a June storm, and it caused major death and destruction from SE TX to SW Louisiana.


Where in the world did you get the Idea that GFS a showed a Major Hurricane
It didn't even show a hurricane much less a Major hurricane
Quoting 109. Bucsboltsfan:



At least the Caymans is not in line for this one - if it were to develop.


Is there some reason your brought that up
Yes I'm seriously asking
Quoting 109. Bucsboltsfan:



At least the Caymans is not in line for this one - if it were to develop.


The only thing we are expected to get from it is rain and maybe some gusty winds 25-30 and that's it
Quoting 107. win1gamegiantsplease:



Holy freshman year of high school


2004 Senior in college. Year of Charley, Frances, & Jeanne.
Quoting 111. wunderkidcayman:



Is there some reason your brought that up
Yes I'm seriously asking


Not at all. I don't want the Caymans getting hit. I have friends down there. I'm safe too. No way do I want a storm.
Quoting 114. Bucsboltsfan:



Not at all. I don't want the Caymans getting hit. I have friends down there. I'm safe too. No way do I want a storm.


Really where about? In Cayman
Quoting 110. wunderkidcayman:



Where in the world did you get the Idea that GFS a showed a Major Hurricane
It didn't even show a hurricane much less a Major hurricane


I think the user is just comparing June 1957 to June 2015, both which were in El Nino (the 57 Atlantic hurricane season had fewer than 10 named storms) and the similar origin of both waves (Audrey and our possible invest going across the Yucatan and being influenced by upper level troughs). Does not mean any models are forecasting a major hurricane in June nor is anyone else expecting one.
Quoting 104. CybrTeddy:

I would obviously dismiss claims that this is another Audrey or something ridiculous, but if a tropical depression or storm does impact Texas next week there could be problems. They're already waterlogged as it is.

With our luck, it'll be a closer analog to Amelia of '78. Soopah-flooding, she stalled out over the Hill Country.
Quoting 115. wunderkidcayman:



Really where about? In Cayman


Georgetown
Quoting 97. pureet1948:



About that 99% TC probability, Grothar. Could SE TX be facing another storm like Audrey?


Not likely. No model has forecast any strong development at all. Hostile conditions all over the place. If anything, at this time, probably just some rain.
Tesla To Occupy Former Solyndra Plant In Fremont; Expected To Add Over 1,000 Jobs

Link
Quoting 97. pureet1948:



About that 99% TC probability, Grothar. Could SE TX be facing another storm like Audrey?


I looked at the THCP, even without shear, a really big storm is unlikely. The THCP is nothing like 2005 an 2008.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:



2004 Senior in college. Year of Charley, Frances, & Jeanne.


Ah, I was in the seventh grade that year, I guess I was late on that track lol. Makes sense though because freshman year TI's King album was pumping in everyone's car and the football locker room along with mixed CD's and that was 2006.
123. beell
I don't think many folks in Texas want catastrophic flooding-but with little to no rain over the last 7 days and hot sunny days typical of June, we could use some rain. We're far from being "waterlogged".

Quoting 86. Astrometeor:



*geeks

Fixed it.


To paraphrase Patrick Star, give or take a couple adjectives, you're not only correct but you're also right.
Gone up by quite a bit

Quoting 123. beell:

I don't think many folks in Texas want catastrophic flooding-but with little to no rain over the last 7 days and hot sunny days typical of June, we could use some rain. We're far from being "waterlogged".




Well considering many areas saw 5 times the normal May rainfall, and up to and even more than half their yearly average rain, I'd argue against that. Most places could probably still flood easy from oversaturation, and I think a week without rain in most of Texas is very good. Not to sat there may have been some regions that missed out on the deluge that this isn't goof for as well, but yeah.
Quoting 72. hydrus:

G,night.Bon..

I almost came on to mention it earlier. There was an outbreak of thunderstorms with heavy rains across the Mojave, and for a time this afternoon, a nasty gullywasher in the Carrizo Plain which is a weird piece of the Mojave shunted up by the San Andreas to inland northeast of Santa Barbara. All this was lingering moisture from Blanca. Looked kind of monsoon-like, but that really hasn't set up yet.
Quoting 121. Qazulight:



I looked at the THCP, even without shear, a really big storm is unlikely. The THCP is nothing like 2005 an 2008.

Cheers
Qazulight
Thanks! And a hearty "Qazulight" right back at ya!!!
Just did my daily blog update on the Atlantic tropics. Suddenly the computer models are picking up possible tropical cyclone formation in the western Gulf of Mexico by 72 hours. At the very least we could see enhanced rain moving into western Louisiana and eastern Texas by 5 days.
Quoting 74. winter123:


We just had hail for about a minute. Hail is quite unusual for upstate New York. Its been years since I witnessed it. Technically I only heard it on the metal porch roof since its quite dark.


I'm surprised, I would think it would be common in upstate New York given on average colder air aloft at that latitude.
Quoting 121. Qazulight:



I looked at the THCP, even without shear, a really big storm is unlikely. The THCP is nothing like 2005 an 2008.

Cheers
Qazulight
Right! If anyone thinks this will be a big storm, they need to see the light (or in this case, the "qazulight").
Quoting 131. Llamaluvr:

Right! If anyone thinks this will be a big storm, they need to see the light (or in this case, the "qazulight").


I hope you're right, FWIW.
btw
TS Carlos
now moving NE
before it was moving E

it been moving like that for just about all day
Is that a huge fish in the gulf stream? It's heading towards Texas! Fishcane? Closer look, sharkcane!

Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I think a low is forming in the GOH near 16N 87W
TWO 2am no change

It is possible that moisture from this disturbance could flow northwards into the southwest Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche early next week, boosting the chances of a tropical disturbance capable of forming into a tropical depression there.

To follow this year's action in the tropics, I recommend the Twitter feed of NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake.

Jeff Masters


Not bad Dr. Masters, not bad at all.
lil off on timing but, timing is near impossible to predict here
From Slate:

The Pope’s Climate Encyclical Now Has an Epic Hollywood Trailer

By Eric Holthaus

If you’re like me and eagerly anticipating Pope Francis’ encyclical on climate change—due out Thursday, June 18—stop what you’re doing and watch this:



What’s going on here is nothing short of amazing. It’s probably the best video I’ve ever seen, on any topic, of any length (and yes, that includes Game of Thrones).

Put together by the Observatório do Clima, a network of Brazilian nongovernmental organizations and advocates for action on climate change, the video pitches the forthcoming message—which has attracted heavenly levels of hype—as a silver bullet in an epic battle between the pope’s forces of climate justice and the evil fossil fuel industry.

The opening quote—“If we destroy creation, creation will destroy us”—is an actual line from one of the pope’s recent sermons on the environment. It is expected to form the heart of his argument in the forthcoming letter to the world’s Catholic churches.

It just gets better from there.

At one point, Jesus appears in the corner of a boxing ring as the pope prepares, saying, “The power of me compels you." You can’t make this stuff up—except apparently they did.

Seriously, just watch the video.
Quoting 133. wunderkidcayman:

btw
TS Carlos
now moving NE
before it was moving E

it been moving like that for just about all day
According to the NHC, Carlos, as of 0100 CDT, is stationary.
I don't know why I'm up but, looking at the NHC for 0100 -

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Central
America northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea are
primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This activity is
expected to spread into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Upper-level winds are only marginal for tropical cyclone formation
and development, if any, will be slow to occur while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 60. wunderkidcayman:


Oh well if it's 40kts then it has been dropping

Overnight last night and this morning it was 50-60kts so it dropping down to 40 just shows that it is

Anyway the models show shear dropping over the system down to 5-20kts and that would be perfect for a sheared TD or TS

I would not say it won't develop
right now I'd put it more like 50/50 or 60/40 of development possibility

Depending on what I see later then it may go up
Shear in the GOH is currently 50 knots. Shear in the rest of the Caribbean is between 40 and 50 knots. Those numbers have been about the same for several weeks. Wind shear in the BOC and the western Gulf is between 30 and 50 knots. There is an area of 20 knot wind shear right in the GOH, and that's the lowest shear anywhere in the area. Even if a low managed to develop in the GOH, it has to pass through some very hostile shear before it's able to develop into a tropical cyclone.
146. vis0
112/716
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: on mp4 (early AM hours)
Imagery Type::(not a public product, visX)

http://youtu.be/vFJnQqC_-ms(320x748)


I think at the next TWO, the 5 day chance will go up to 30-40 percent chance.
If (and that's a BIG IF) a TC were to form in the GOM, Then east Texans would have to be concerned. As it is there have been several days of hot temps and drying out from recent heavy rains. According to NWS in Houston , most of the area can handle 4 inches of rain without the need for flash flood warnings. Due to the moderate wind shear forecasted , I think the worst we can expect is moderate tropical rainfall, and not any organized TC.
conditions in the gulf aren't favorable for development at least today...............
The models backed off last night, but I'm not paying too much attention to them on this one. Shear has dropped quite a bit out ahead of our disturbance, as low as 20kts in spots now.



Convection has also flared up a bit this morning, thanks to good lower convergence and divergence aloft, although it has little organization.



It has a long way to go, and I'd still bet on no development, but it's something at least. Next thing is it has to cross the Yucatan.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Central
America northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea are
primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This activity is
expected to spread into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Upper-level winds are only marginal for tropical cyclone formation
and development, if any, will be slow to occur while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
tornadoes.are.dangerous


doom!!
162. FOREX
Quoting 158. LargoFl:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Central
America northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea are
primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This activity is
expected to spread into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Upper-level winds are only marginal for tropical cyclone formation
and development, if any, will be slow to occur while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila



Marginal was added. That's an improvement.
NHC is a little more bullish.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

went up again watch out



maybe a invest soon!
Good morning, seems to me anything that forms this season the gulf coast states have the better chance of getting something. High pressure off the east coast into the atlantic is pretty strong. That ridge has been keeping us dry here on the space coast. We have had a few storms here in there. But the rainy season just never got started. Only 20% to 30% for up coming week in which we probably won't see a drop unless we get a coastal shower some how in the morning :(
We have invest 91L:

91L INVEST 150613 1200 17.0N 88.4W ATL 25 1009
Quoting 169. GeoffreyWPB:






The intensity models don't even bring 91L to TS status with the exception of one. Pretty telling.
disbelievers.yesterday.
I bet this is the first time three hurricanes have formed in E pac before June 15. Is this gonna be the theme of our next entry?
Quoting 167. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, seems to me anything that forms this season the gulf coast states have the better chance of getting something. High pressure off the east coast into the atlantic is pretty strong. That ridge has been keeping us dry here on the space coast. We have had a few storms here in there. But the rainy season just never got started. Only 20% to 30% for up coming week in which we probably won't see a drop unless we get a coastal shower some how in the morning :(
Yes, the "rain season" never started this year. If we don't see it start by early July, I'm hoarding canned goods!
Quoting 167. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, seems to me anything that forms this season the gulf coast states have the better chance of getting something. High pressure off the east coast into the atlantic is pretty strong. That ridge has been keeping us dry here on the space coast. We have had a few storms here in there. But the rainy season just never got started. Only 20% to 30% for up coming week in which we probably won't see a drop unless we get a coastal shower some how in the morning :(
Yes, the "rain season" never started this year. If we don't see it start by early July, I'm hoarding canned goods!
141. Xandra
6:29 AM GMT on June 13, 2015



The Popes Climate Encyclical Now Has an Epic Hollywood Trailer



Yeah buddy...Tha Pope threw down hard....B. Lee would be proud...These things will happen when the power of the Universe is on your side
invest 91L northwestern Caribbean Sea
INVEST 91L

Hey, at least we have something to watch!

Would not be surprised if it develops a little more, after moving into the GOM.

Big question is future location. Middle, SW Gulf, far western Gulf? We will see ....

It might be a big sloppy mess!

Quoting 176. hurricanes2018:

invest 91L northwestern Caribbean Sea
it's looking very good. I expect designation by tomorrow afternoon.
New invest looks healthy for being so close to land,,

Models are good at predicting path not so good on strength,
too much shear



BOB will have a new blog up soon about invest 91L SOON
MY NEW BLOG IS UP ABOUT INVEST 91l Link
186. yoboi
Wow looks like it's already devolped a rotation, this hurricane season may be a surprise. Cancun, Mexico is getting some decent rain and winds off of it.
Quoting 180. hydrus:

New invest looks healthy for being so close to land,,


link to 3 day shear forecast........no way this can form in that time period........

Link
Quoting 187. TCweatherman:

Wow looks like it's already devolped a rotation, this hurricane season may be a surprise. Cancun, Mexico is getting some decent rain and winds off of it.
well I was at cancun in the 80's..there is nothing tall going to affect it developing..whole area is flat
way early yet and we just may..get a TS out of this if all things can come together....
193. yoboi
Coastal Flood Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM CDT SUNDAY...

.MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LONG
FETCH OVER THE GULF WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS AND
SWELLS...RESULTING IN COASTAL TIDES RUNNING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET MLLW ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES APPROACHING 2 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ADDITIONAL PILING
OF WATER WILL CAUSE ACTUAL TIDES TO REACH 3.0 TO 3.6 FEET.

LAZ052>054-073-074-TXZ215-131700-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150614T2100Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
335 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDE LEVELS OF 3.0 TO 3.6 FT MLLW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...LOW PORTIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN HOLLY BEACH
AND CONSTANCE BEACH MAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SECONDARY PARISH
ROADS ACROSS COASTAL CAMERON PARISH MAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MAIN STREET IN CAMERON. ACROSS COASTAL
JEFFERSON COUNTY...PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN SEA RIM
STATE PARK AND SABINE PASS MAY HAVE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward....nhc
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

well looking at this..you can tell where its going to go...........................
Guess the High sitting off the SE ATL coast is going to stop it going thru florida..
ok this has changed since early this morning......................................
Good morning all. The rainy season on the East Coast of South Florida is a joke right now. Statistically June is the wettest month in South Florida and other than 2 severe thunderstorms a few days ago that brought decent rains we have had nothing at all. I can't figure this climate out the last several years the driest months have been the rainiest and the rainiest moths have been the driest. April statistically the driest month in Palm Beach County was pretty wet with a rainy season type set up with well above average temps. This month I can't pray a raindrop to come and its supposed to rain everyday. We need a tropical storm for excitement and precipitation to boot.
so guys I guess I was right about 91L

he National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...

* until 1115 am CDT

* at 918 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory
area. Overall 1 to 2 inches of rain have fallen in an hour over
much of the advisory area. Storms continue to move over the area
and increase rainfall amounts causing street flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena... eastern Pearland... League City... Baytown...
Friendswood... La Porte... Deer Park... Alvin... Dickinson... Santa
Fe... Seabrook... Webster... Beach City... Kemah... Clear Lake... south
belt / Ellington... Highlands... Channelview... Barrett and Nassau
Bay.
---------------

Looks to be some interesting days along the Texas Coast. Looking at radar, there looks to be a long plume of rain that will be affecting the Houston Metro Area pretty quick. 91L took me completely by surprise this morning. Teaches me for not checking in here more often.
Despite having been stationary for several days now, TS Carlos has not apparently churned up any colder water, signifying it lies over a particularly deep pool of very warm water. In fact it's strengthened this AM. It's winds must be driving the upwelled warm pool out in all directions, effectively stretching it out over the surface and extending the area of warmer SSTs in the region, thus aiding the development of even more tropical systems following Carlos. Also evident from the satellite views is its outflow impinging on the development of 91L east of Yucatan.
Quoting 204. wunderkidcayman:

so guys I guess I was right about 91L





Yes but its unbecoming to toot your own horn obsessively so be careful
another sign that this is a strange el nino event.....where's that southern jet stream?????

so guys I guess I was right about 91L


you or the model?
I see we have 91L. This looks destined for the Western half of the Gulf in the long run, but I wonder if any of the moisture will spread into the eastern half of the Gulf while it is trying to develop. This system will be lopsided to the East
Quoting 204. wunderkidcayman:

so guys I guess I was right about 91L


You sure are, you have been calling it for quite some time now. Persistent troughiness in the NW Caribbean as been mentioned by Islanders101010 as well. Good Job guys. How's it going in the Cayman Islands?
Quoting 210. Hurricanes101:

I see we have 91L. This looks destined for the Western half of the Gulf in the long run, but I wonder if any of the moisture will spread into the eastern half of the Gulf while it is trying to develop. This system will be lopsided to the East
that means no hurricane maybe a tropical storm
91L

Quoting 208. ricderr:

another sign that this is a strange el nino event.....where's that southern jet stream?????




lol
maybe not in the South

anyway yeah this yeah might be very interesting
Tropical Storm Carlos Strengthening Off the Mexican Pacific Coast; Forecast to Become a Hurricane
91L Rainbow Loop dee Loop



invest 91L
Quoting 207. K8eCane:




Yes but its unbecoming to toot your own horn obsessively so be careful


It sure is. Even though I was the first one who posted it 3 days ago, you don't hear me saying anything :):)
Bill is a brewin'.
Quoting 219. slavicthunder:

Bill is a brewin'.



no it is not
Quoting 202:

Let's just forget the separation of church and state...[referring to Pope Francis]
American Exceptionalism rears its ugly head yet again - and again, you seem to be not aware of reality. As with weather and climate, the the United States is not the world. (I am not a Catholic, but have many friends and some extended family members, who are.)

Pope Francis lives in the Vatican, which is actually a country, and is not in the U.S. He is the head of state in the Vatican, which is the world headquarters of the Catholic Church, in the Vatican, the church is the state.

Some trivia:

At 109 acres, the Vatican is the smallest country in the world - it is so small that it can rely on regional Italian weather and climate information - I don't think it has a meteorology department.

However, the Vatican does have a respectable astronomical observatory. It was there that our currently used Gregorian Calendar was developed in 1582.

Early cloud photography done by the Vatican observatory was featured at the Royal Meteorological Society's Exhibition, London in 1890, and was an excellent contribution to the use of photography for the study of meteorology.


Quoting 167. hurricanewatcher61:

Good morning, seems to me anything that forms this season the gulf coast states have the better chance of getting something. High pressure off the east coast into the atlantic is pretty strong. That ridge has been keeping us dry here on the space coast. We have had a few storms here in there. But the rainy season just never got started. Only 20% to 30% for up coming week in which we probably won't see a drop unless we get a coastal shower some how in the morning :(
Same thing down here in the Greater Miami/Ft.Lauderdale area. The number of times it's rained since early May I can count on one hand. This is the most inactive rainy season's I can remember. And the bad thing is there's hardly any rain in sight for the next several day's. No more then a 20% chance at best. UGH! Dam you High Pressure. I wish you would just go away.
91L is nothing more then a miss of clouds nothing more nothing less 91L will bring nothing more then hvy rains for TXS wish they dont need
Quoting 218. Grothar:



It sure is. Even though I was the first one who posted it 3 days ago, you don't hear me saying anything :):)
I beat you to it. Last November, I posted right here in this forum that there'd likely be an invest in the GoM sometime between May and October. And now look! So if I may:

Quoting 211. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You sure are, you have been calling it for quite some time now. Persistent troughiness in the NW Caribbean as been mentioned by Islanders101010 as well. Good Job guys. How's it going in the Cayman Islands?

thanks
so far so good I know we could see some more rain out of this
as of now in Grand Cayman its mostly cloudy but sun is passing through some of the clouds
the NW, W and SW side of Grand Cayman is more cloudy and thicker darker clouds and over the E and SE side lighter clouds and less dense on the NE and N side its more of in between the two states
Quoting 225. Neapolitan:

I beat you to it. Last November, I posted right here in this forum that there'd likely be an invest in the GoM sometime between May and October. And now look! So if I may:




November, what?? lol
Just about stronger than the 2014 Warm Pool. Insane how this has developed the last few weeks.

Quoting 218. Grothar:



It sure is. Even though I was the first one who posted it 3 days ago, you don't hear me saying anything :):)


No I was
About 5 days ago
Quoting 214. wunderkidcayman:



lol
maybe not in the South

anyway yeah this yeah might be very interesting

If it shows up, it won't be until we approach winter.
236. yoboi
Quoting 221. Xulonn:

American Exceptionalism rears its ugly head yet again - and again, you seem to be not aware of reality. As with weather and climate, the the United States is not the world. (I am not a Catholic, but have many friends and some extended family members, who are.)

Pope Francis lives in the Vatican, which is actually a country, and is not in the U.S. He is the head of state in the Vatican, which is the world headquarters of the Catholic Church, in the Vatican, the church is the state.

Some trivia:

At 109 acres, the Vatican is the smallest country in the world - it is so small that it can rely on regional Italian weather and climate information - I don't think it has a meteorology department.

However, the Vatican does have a respectable astronomical observatory. It was there that our currently used Gregorian Calendar was developed in 1582.

Early cloud photography done by the Vatican observatory was featured at the Royal Meteorological Society's Exhibition, London in 1890, and was an excellent contribution to the use of photography for the study of meteorology.





Well he is scheduled to meet & address Congress in September about climate change...
Quoting 234. wunderkidcayman:



No I was
About 5 days ago


Who cares who called it first? lol

We have invest 91L that has some potential to become either a TD or weak TS.
And we have Hurricane Carlos.
240. yoboi
Quoting 225. Neapolitan:

I beat you to it. Last November, I posted right here in this forum that there'd likely be an invest in the GoM sometime between May and October. And now look! So if I may:




Great job Neap you nailed it...
anyone have the radar links for Mexico, Belize and Barbados?

Trying to re-establish my bookmarks
No I was
About 5 days ago


just to clarify.....
5 days ago...you were quoting models showing formation in a different location......

and as we start this hurricane season....these are my queries.......

is a person "right"...or "nailed it".....on showing a model...or do we give credit to the model.......

if a model picks up a disturbance......on the correct time frame...but puts it in the wrong location....is the model right?

if a model picks up a disturbance.....but gets the date wrong...was it right?

has anyone on here.....called for a disturbance to form...without the aide of a model?

Any "first" or other nod to being "superior" in obs or investing',..is a ego stroke, not a nod to intelligence.

Carry on'..

Diet Fresca sucks too.

: P
Quoting 225. Neapolitan:

I beat you to it. Last November, I posted right here in this forum that there'd likely be an invest in the GoM sometime between May and October. And now look! So if I may:




Okay I'll go right out on a limb and warn everybody that next January is going to be much colder than this July in most of North America and that somewhere in the lower 48 states there will be accumulating snow that actually covers the ground.. There I said it!
Quoting 241. Hurricanes101:

anyone have the radar links for Mexico, Belize and Barbados?

Trying to re-establish my bookmarks


Ok I only need the one for Mexico, I found the others
Quoting 243. Patrap:

Any "first" or other nod to being "superior" in obs or investing',..is a ego stroke, not a nod to intelligence.

Carry on'..

Diet Fresca sucks too.

: P


Is there diet (or lite) anything that is better than the original?
Quoting 239. Grothar:




We're gonna need a Bigger blog'...



SSTs continue to creep upward along the California coast, barely cooling at all last night. Half Moon Bay for instance stood at 61 F around midnight. Currents remain erratic, but are trending to increasingly southerly vectors.

Link
Quoting 246. georgevandenberghe:



Is there diet (or lite) anything that is better than the original?


Not in this Universe dats fo sho' george.
Quoting 246. georgevandenberghe:



Is there diet (or lite) anything that is better than the original?



No, but diet Dr Pepper isn't too bad
Quoting 248. BayFog:

SSTs continue to creep upward along the California coast, barely cooling at all last night. Half Moon Bay for instance stood at 61 F around midnight. Currents remain erratic, but are trending to increasingly southerly vectors.

Link


I for one enjoy your SST posts from there as it is a great indicator of the overall Pacific situ, near CONUS.

So thanks again.
252. beell
Quoting 245. Hurricanes101:



Ok I only need the one for Mexico, I found the others
This gives you all the Mexican radar plus that of surrounding countries.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_conten t&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84
GOM Sea Height Anomalies

maybe looking more like a Mexico landfall.......................................... .........................HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged
eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery. In addition,
radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become
established, although it is still open on the north side. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial
intensity.

After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one. It is worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.

With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on
record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern
Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 252. beell:




The dry air is like my Harley Deuce Carb intake, just nuff to purr at idle.
Sfc obs wind data and vort charts show the developing low or the center of this system is located offshore near Rotan
estimated near 17N 87W
Quoting 211. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You sure are, you have been calling it for quite some time now. Persistent troughiness in the NW Caribbean as been mentioned by Islanders101010 as well. Good Job guys. How's it going in the Cayman Islands?
Indeed. Sometime since about May 10, so it would have come true sometime...assuming it comes true.
shear

Quoting 246. georgevandenberghe:



Is there diet (or lite) anything that is better than the original?


That's a big N-O
If we all werk together, we can get thru this event'

...Roger?

Quoting 204. wunderkidcayman:

so guys I guess I was right about 91L


THe CMC may have been right if this invest actually becomes a TD. Unless you have been manufacturing your own models, none of us would be right about a system. There's a difference between posting each and every model, most of which have been wrong, and being "right" because one finally turned into an invest.
xx/xx/xx
WKC remember that micro purple dot off of Belize you pointed out 5-6 days ago? You, comically to some, said was filling in. Then each day afterwards it did just that. Good job on that. Let others praise you in life, when you praise yourself it comes across all kinds of wrong. When most do it here with "I saw it first!", it's jokingly done. Shear has really fallen off and the flat Yucatan shouldn't hinder development. Looking like NHC may be upping the percentages in a big way if this persists and consolidates through Sunday. TS starting to look like a real possibility.
91L/INV/XX/XX
BY 2PM we still see 20% in 48 hours and 30% in five days at 2pm
Depth of the 26C Thermocline

Sfc obs wind data and vort charts show the developing low or the center of this system is located offshore near Rotan
estimated near 17N 87W
ATL: 91L is looking very large with lots of deep convection and looks like an LLC is developing and has the potential to form into a tropical cyclone later this week.



EPAC: Carlos is now a Hurricane and will start to impact Mexico later tonight with winds, heavy rain, and high surfs. Satellite imagery is showing an eye is popping out.



Read more...
Quoting 236. yoboi:



Well he is scheduled to meet & address Congress in September about climate change...

Maybe he can talk some sense into a few of them.

Weather-related, looks like SE TX/SW LA are getting some rain this morning



And for the next 5 days (per individual QPFs), that region is going to get a soaking

Not being highly conversant with weather phenomena (compared to those who post here), I noticed that in the video loop of figure 5, [" A high-resolution GOES-14 image from around 6:00 pm CDT on Thursday, June 5,..."] that where the tornadoes form the clouds seem to be streaming around an 'obstruction' and forming a wake similar to the water in a stream rushing around a rock. Can anyone comment on this observation and its significance? I made an annotated image of the phenomenon but can't see how to upload it directly from my computer.
A wunderblogger near NASA 1 in Galveston has gotten 6 plus inches of rainfall since midnight.

275. yoboi
Quoting 271. LAbonbon:


Maybe he can talk some sense into a few of them.

Weather-related, looks like SE TX/SW LA are getting some rain this morning



And for the next 5 days (per individual QPFs), that region is going to get a soaking




Picked up 1.37 inches since midnight...And more on the way..
Quoting 263. sar2401:

THe CMC may have been right if this invest actually becomes a TD. Unless you have been manufacturing your own models, none of us would be right about a system. There's a difference between posting each and every model, most of which have been wrong, and being "right" because one finally turned into an invest.


other than the models Ive stated this system would happen
yesterday I stateded that we will see invest 91L this morning
and yes I do run my own models
you and the rest of the guys would be wrong
I would be right
most of you were sayin one thing and I said this
and y'all shouted NO it AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN in my face
and well so far I've been right
and the models that had picked up on it was right so far

lets leave it at that
Quoting 265. DeepSeaRising:

WKC remember that micro purple dot off of Belize you pointed out 5-6 days ago? You, comically to some, said was filling in. Then each day afterwards it did just that. Good job on that. Let others praise you in life, when you praise yourself it comes across all kinds of wrong. When most do it here with "I saw it first!", it's jokingly done. Shear has really fallen off and the flat Yucatan shouldn't hinder development. Looking like NHC may be upping the percentages in a big way if this persists and consolidates through Sunday. TS starting to look like a real possibility.


agreed
Invest 91L - looking a little more organized this morning.

Just a little weather history:

Hurricane Bonnie made landfall near High Island, Texas, on June 26, 1986.
That was a "slow" year, with only 6 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin.

At the very least, the system might bring lots of rain to areas of the Gulf Coast.

Quoting 276. wunderkidcayman:



other than the models Ive stated this system would happen
yesterday I stateded that we will see invest 91L this morning
and yes I do run my own models
you and the rest of the guys would be wrong
I would be right
most of you were sayin one thing and I said this
and y'all shouted NO it AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN in my face
and well so far I've been right
and the models that had picked up on it was right so far

lets leave it at that
You run your own models? Got a supercomputer in the basement? I don't recall anyone shouting in your face about if this would or wouldn't be an invest. Seriously, just follow along now and see what happens rather than needing to be "right" because you're persecuted.
Quoting 253. sar2401:

This gives you all the Mexican radar plus that of surrounding countries.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_conten t&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84


Thanks Sar!!
Quoting 276. wunderkidcayman:



other than the models Ive stated this system would happen
yesterday I stateded that we will see invest 91L this morning
and yes I do run my own models
you and the rest of the guys would be wrong
I would be right
most of you were sayin one thing and I said this
and y'all shouted NO it AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN in my face
and well so far I've been right
and the models that had picked up on it was right so far

lets leave it at that


Facepalms. It's one thing to have made a right "prediction" and have others praise you for it. It's another completely to, with no humility, use that right "prediction" to triumph yourself and shove it in the faces of those who disagreed.
Quoting 267. hurricanes2018:

BY 2PM we still see 20% in 48 hours and 30% in five days at 2pm


well to how it looks now compared to how it looked this morning and last night
I would say % will go up at 2
WKC, many on the blog, me included, who would have pointed out what you said, predicted, and given you credit for this coming to fruition.

The area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean continues to grow in size by the hour. Residents along the Gulf Coast need to monitor this systems progress very closely.
If we get "Bill", then another by July 6th..we will be on pace with 2005, as Cindy formed and made landfall as a Hurricane July 6th in Se Louisiana,

Ponder dat.



you right I need to chill

sorry I just had to release
Sar has been p**sing me off for about a week

and I apologies Sar for the out burst
sorry guys
288. yoboi
Quoting 276. wunderkidcayman:



other than the models Ive stated this system would happen
yesterday I stateded that we will see invest 91L this morning
and yes I do run my own models
you and the rest of the guys would be wrong
I would be right
most of you were sayin one thing and I said this
and y'all shouted NO it AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN in my face
and well so far I've been right
and the models that had picked up on it was right so far

lets leave it at that


Keep up the good work...Can you please share your model since it's doing so good...Thanks
Cindy went inland and wrecked havoc in many states as one Tornado ripped the roof off the Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Note how well formed the cyclone remnants were inland too.



Somewhere a UK Marine weeps eh, wkc?

: P
Quoting 287. wunderkidcayman:

you right I need to chill

sorry I just had to release
Sar has been p**sing me off for about a week

and I apologies Sar for the out burst
sorry guys



Sar's been known to occasionally have that affect on people. :)


I SEE A SPIN TO INVEST 91L
Look I don't care if nothing comes of 91L.....I'm just glad we have something to at least track.
n.yucatan.tumbling
Quoting 271. LAbonbon:


Maybe he can talk some sense into a few of them.

Weather-related, looks like SE TX/SW LA are getting some rain this morning



And for the next 5 days (per individual QPFs), that region is going to get a soaking


I don't think the WPC as the data for 91L yet. The 12z GFS, the base of the WPC QPF, has a 1007 low at hour 54 right off the south-central TX coast. At hour 60, a 1004 low leaps down into the middle of Mexico. THe 1007 low comes back to the coast and makes landfall near Corpus Christi. By hour 120 the low is in Ohio, and by hour 144, it's a 1011 low in South Carolina heading into the Atlantic. My guess is the models have a bit of cleaning up to do before we get a clue about where the rain goes. The only thing I can say with absolute certainty is it won't be SE Alabama. :-)
Quoting 287. wunderkidcayman:

you right I need to chill

sorry I just had to release
Sar has been p**sing me off for about a week

and I apologies Sar for the out burst
sorry guys

It's OK. Getting people p**sed off sometimes happens, but I have never posted anything except what the models or the NHC said - exactly. I don't consider myself a forecaster, just an observer.
Is there a way to add a widget from here to my Facebook page? Also is there a way to make a particular weather station my default one that I can see when I type in my city?
Quoting 281. Hurricanes101:



Thanks Sar!!

You're welcome. Acapulco is pretty reliable. All the other Mexican radars are subject to outages, especially weather related. It's too bad a radar was never established on Isla Socorro, south of Baja, since that's the one real blind spot we have with EPAC storms.
Quoting 272. Marshalldoc:

Not being highly conversant with weather phenomena (compared to those who post here), I noticed that in the video loop of figure 5, [" A high-resolution GOES-14 image from around 6:00 pm CDT on Thursday, June 5,..."] that where the tornadoes form the clouds seem to be streaming around an 'obstruction' and forming a wake similar to the water in a stream rushing around a rock. Can anyone comment on this observation and its significance? I made an annotated image of the phenomenon but can't see how to upload it directly from my computer.


I really love imagery like this. I am a casual weather observer with probably an above average ability to comprehend the science behind it.

This was the first thing I noticed too in this high res high frequency loop. I think it stood out so quickly to me because I am not used to seeing this kind of imagery. I have looked for these types of loops for a while and have considered building a computer program to do that for me. After all, it's just a series of images strewn together like one of those picture book flippers (that's all any animation is really).

Back to the observation, it looks to me like there are low level and high level winds colliding at those boundaries. I imagine this is some kind of fluid dynamic effect taking place here. It reminds me of an outgoing tide as the waves continue to wash ashore.

Edit: I always thought cloud bursts like that looked live stove pipes billowing steam or smoke. :)

Really amazing to look at and attempt to comprehend the forces at play. Great look!
Quoting 297. Hurricanes101:

Is there a way to add a widget from here to my Facebook page? Also is there a way to make a particular weather station my default one that I can see when I type in my city?


I figured out the default station on here part, but not the Facebook part
Quoting 288. yoboi:



Keep up the good work...Can you please share your model since it's doing so good...Thanks
I'm sure he will - just about the time you get your PhD.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 301. sar2401:

I'm sure he will - just about the time you get your PhD.
Is there a way he can prove he is receiving his PHD on the blog. If he is not bluffing, it would be something else.
Quoting 283. wunderkidcayman:



well to how it looks now compared to how it looked this morning and last night
I would say % will go up at 2
Seems to be making a good effort to organize and looks way better than it did earlier this morning.
Quoting 301. sar2401:

I'm sure he will - just about the time you get your PhD.


His pretty hilarious deniability degree? Must be carrying a 4.0. I don't dislike Yoboi though, let's call him a conversation starter here, lots of good information gets out there here by those who refute him so well. AGW on the backburner for a few though as we have an invest to track. Many here need a break from that conversation. Hope your well Yoboi.
Quoting 299. TBayEyes:



I really love imagery like this. I am a casual weather observer with probably an above average ability to comprehend the science behind it.

This was the first thing I noticed too in this high res high frequency loop. I think it stood out so quickly to me because I am not used to seeing this kind of imagery. I have looked for these types of loops for a while and have considered building a computer program to do that for me. After all, it's just a series of images strewn together like one of those picture book flippers (that's all any animation is really).

Back to the observation, it looks to me like there are low level and high level winds colliding at those boundaries. I imagine this is some kind of fluid dynamic effect taking place here. It reminds me of an outgoing tide as the waves continue to wash ashore.

Really amazing to look at and attempt to comprehend the forces at play. Great look!
I'm not sure exactly what it is either but there are two sets of mountain ranges there, the main Rockies and then the Front Range west of Denver down to about Colorado Springs. The moist air comes upstream from the south to the Front Range and the thunderstorms form and then keep reforming as the moist air continues to flow in. The area east of Denver is flat plain with no mountains, so the flow is smooth out there compared to the turbulent flow around the mountains. I'd compare it to the flow over an airplane wing, but I have no idea if I'm right.
Quoting 48. win1gamegiantsplease:



Wet season isn't a term just thrown up in the air, I was in Florida in November and February and it was dry as a bone.


Depends on the year, monthly average precip is a few inches in those months, which is about the same as most temperate areas in November and December, but it's a lot lower than the average during the rainy season, and drought is more likely. A lot of tropical growth dies after cooler weather and shorter days, and don't hold up well unless it always raining heavy. We can and do get heavy rain in the dry season too.

We had more than 6 inches in this past November and February here at my location in Central Florida for example, and we had a day with more than 3 inches in February. Even if it rains a good amount in the dry season, the cooler weather and shorter days still leaves a lot of tropical overgrowth stuff dies and turns brown during that time of year.

Quoting 84. PensacolaDoug:

Since you're making assertions, why not source them to give more weight?


Hi Pensacola Doug,
Your correct Doug. I would be happy to quote my sources:

Senator Inhofe campaign contributions
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/industries .php?cycle=Career&cid=N00005582

Facts about Oklahoma's oil and gas economy
http://www.okstatechamber.com/sites/www.okstatech amber.com/files/MS_OilGasFacts.pdf

Dr. Willie Soon
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/1 1/cclimate-sceptic-researcher-willie-soon-investig ated-funding-fossil-fuel-firms

Warm Water Blob
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_low_res/global _anomaly_oper0.png
Also Dr. Cliff Mass, UW

The June 12, 2015 map now shows the core of the NE Pacific warm water blob anomaly at +4 to +8 C.

Note the narrow strip of cool water immediately off the Pacific Northwest Coast. This is a summer-time seasonal phenomenon where the wind blows off-shore causing cold water upwelling near the coast. It reverses during the winter months.

Seattle climate summary 2014
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/2014- weather-review-for-Seattle-Rain-Warmth-Sounds-like -a-broken-record--287132471.html
There are numerous other sources for Seattle Climate 2014. This one has a nice little summary at the bottom.

2014 Year End Statistics For Seattle

Annual Rain: 48.50" (5th wettest. Average: 37.49")
Number of days with measurable rain: 150 (average: 154)
Number of sunny days (0-30% cloud cover): 50 (average: 58)
Number of partly cloudy days (30-70% cover): 180 (average: 81)
Number of overcast days (>70% cloud cover): 135 (average: 226)
Number of days 80 degrees or hotter: 45 (Average: 25)
Number of days at 85 or hotter: 22 (Average: 10)
Number of days at 90 or hotter: 5 (Average: 3)

Annual average temperature for 2014 was +2.7 F.

2015 has been a tad warmer and significantly drier. I recorded only 0.64 inches of rain in May and so far this June only 0.12 with no rain in the forecast.
http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KWAVASHO4