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A Christmas wish--more data!!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:48 PM GMT on December 25, 2008

Well, it's been another crazy weather year in 2008 here on planet Earth. As we look back on the year, I want to thank all of you for participating in the unique community we've built here at Weather Underground to help document, understand, mourn, and celebrate the ways weather impacts our lives. Special thanks go to all of you who helped out those affected by this year's destructive hurricanes. As we look ahead towards 2009, I'm sure you're wondering what's on my Christmas wish list for the coming year. Hmmm, let's see--let's start with money to fund improved hurricane intensity forecasts, a new QuikSCAT satellite...and more data!

More data, more data,
Right now and not later.
Our storms are distressing,
Our problems are pressing.
We can brook no delay
For theorists to play.
Let us repair
To the principle sublime:
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

For data are solid,
Though dull and though stolid;
Consider their aptness,
Their matter-of-factness.
Theory is confusion,
A snare and delusion,
A dastardly dare,
A culpable crime.
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

No need to be weary
Of the mysteries of theory.
We only must look
At the data we took.
Immediately inspired,
Grasp the answers required.
What are so rare,
As reason and rhyme?
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

More data, more data,
From pole to equator;
We'll gain our salvation
Through mass mensuration.
Thence flows our might,
Our sweetness, our light.
Our spirits full fair, our souls sublime:
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

It shall come to pass, even in our days,
That ignorance shall vanish and doubt disappear.
Then shall men survey with tranquil gaze
The ordered elements shorn of all fear.

Thus to omniscience shall we climb,
Measuring everything, everywhere, all the time.


Poem credit: A. Fleisher. Originally published in 1957 in the Proc. Sixth Weather Radar Conf., American Meteorology Society, Boston, MA, P. 59. Slightly modified by Peter Black, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Jeff Masters. Will hope for the best in 2009 and faster improvements.
Happy holidays to you, Jeff. Thanks for giving us the WU!
Holiday Shout Out:

Merry Christmas everyone! ;)

Happy Holidays to you all! ;)


Merry Christmas or Happy Hanukkah!

Hopefully the year 2009 will be a 'Weather non-event' for most of us.
Nice poem. :D

Merry Christmas, Dr. Masters, and to everyone else as well!
Merry Christmas...
Merry Christmas! Feliz Navidad!^_^
Merry Christmas Everyone!

For anyone who is going to the movies tonight...Marley and Me is not really a feel-good Christmas movie. Just saying...
Dr. Masters -- The word that comes to mind
is that YOU are DAKINE

Hey Mel -- checking in and out -- got a Rumbus in the house today -- Hoping your weather is as good as mine!!!!

note asap to you!!
Hey E - Merry Christmas to you!!! Things are awesome here with weather...almost 78 today. Beautiful day. No gnats either!
Merry Christmas everyone, I hope your day was as nice as mine.
happy christmas merry new year o i got that backwards anyway all the best for the year yet to come
Reporting a 5.8 magnitude Earthquake 10 miles below and a little West Vancouver Island today. Have seen no reports available as to damage or possible Tsunami generation. May be related to the swarms they have been having recently.
Greetings.
Just stopping in to say, I am Stuffed !! 'Tis the season for overindulgence.
Hope everyone had a great day. I certainly did. Whew.....
Merry Christmas and Happy Newf Year from the Carswell Family. Thank you to all the Wunder Photographers for sharing their photos. I LOVE Wunderground :)

Link

NEWFondly Yours,
Dorothy
In Remembrance
Barton Bay's Heart of Oak "Willow" - Daughter of Shipwheel's Twist of Fate and Angel Sings
1/24/92 - 10/10/03, 11 years, 8 months and 18 days
...'tip us Heart of Oak' Come cheer up my lads, 'tis to glory we steer',
Heart of Oak are our ships, Heart of Oak are our men, We always are ready,
Steady, boys, steady ...


Weather is going to be active in the midwest over the next couple of days
Look, a weather poem
Written fifty years ago
Yet, how true today.
Merry Christmas!

What a great caring family of people for the most part that have never even met...did you think it would be like this Dr?
Merry Chirstmas Every Won.
Merry Christmas to all the WU gang and all the members! Please drive safe thru the dense fog along the IH-10 corridor here in Orange,Tx & SW Louisiana. Lets have a great New Year and help stay above water!! RL, can't wait to try oue the new gadgets coming next year. Froggy on the TX/LA line,,,Seabreeze6
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year....from Catfuraplenty and the gang to all WU'ers and especially Dr. Masters. You all are the tops.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Hurricane Force Winds Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy
3:50 PM WDT December 26 2008
===============================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, CAT 3 [960 hPa] located 15.8S 114.3E or 610 km north northwest of Karratha and 680 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0

Hurricane-Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
=================================
12 HRS: 15.2S 113.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 15.4S 112.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.7S 110.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.2S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
Billy continues to move steadily to the northwest away from the mainland under the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Position based primarily on microwave fixes [eg 0240UTC TRMM 37GHz]. An eye is no longer apparent on IR imagery though Dvorak DT numbers remain at 5.0 based on embedded centre pattern [Black]. However, FT biased to MET/Pat. 4.5 given the known bias of embedded centre pattern. CI held at 5.0.

Some weakening is evident under moderate NE shear with microwave imagery showing a weakness in the convection on the NE side.

The current WNW to NW track is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so until a weakness in the ridge allows a more SW to WSW track. Some model guidance suggests a stronger recurvature to the SSW although this may depend on the system being more intense than what is forecast. Further gradual weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea temperatures, though it is likely that the system will retain TC intensity into next week over open waters.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for west of 160E, south of 10S
2:30pm AEST December 26 2008
================================

At the present time there is a tropical low near 11.0S 145.0E, east of Cape York Penisular, moving west slowly and is expected to crosses the northern part of Cape York Saturday morning with winds below 25 knots. The system will continue west into the SW Gulf for Sunday and develop further.
Morning All -- whew -- sipping my wake-up juice, (coffee) enjoying 67 degrees in SWFL/Gulf is 64, waiting for the dawn to light things up a bit - walk the dog and then head out east to the Polo Barns. Been nice weather for the horses track workouts... wish it was a wee bit cooler for when they have to play polo... but I'm never one that looks to welcome El Norte

Total flatspell in the Gulf - Good for the kayakers, sail boats, fishermen -- even the skim boards had a good bump yesterday -- but no waves for Christmas this year. 2006 provided groundswell, 2007 we had a coldfront -- kinda like the economy -- FLAT --

Hope you and your family had a wonderful Christmas, Dr. M, as well as everyone else here on WU.

Thanks again for all you do!
Good morning!

Some potentially severe weather may kick up today:


Photobucket


AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FOR SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM MISSOURI... NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY LATE SATURDAY.

Photobucket

In the picture: The pattern at 6 am CST on 12/27/2008. A cold front will slow down as it nears northwest Arkansas. A storm system aloft in the southern Rockies will shove the front to the east later in the day.


The arrival of the storm system aloft will push the front quickly through the state on the 27th. The front should reach the Mississippi River by evening.
A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely form along the front, and will have a fast forward movement. This usually increases the risk of damaging winds, and this will be the primary severe weather concern. There will be some turning of the winds with height. This could create rotation within a few storms, so isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Merry christmas on to everyone on this wonderful blog and here's wishing that in 2009 all the storms are interesting but ultimately recurve out to sea hurting neither homes nor any of God's creatures. It's christmas breezy
78degrees, with a rare passing shower in St. James Barbados.
Happy Boxing Day WUGers! Working & lurking, so, let's not burn that wrapping paper, OK?

18.
Another Haiku?
I said I wouldn't do it,
But did anyway.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Happy Boxing Day WUGers! Working & lurking, so, let's not burn that wrapping paper, OK?

18.
Another Haiku?
I said I wouldn't do it,
But I did anyway.


Boxing Day is almost like Thanksgiving and 'Black Friday' put together.

Lots of sport, day off from work, lots of eating (From the day before) and lots of shopping. And of course, seeing yet more relatives.


The amount of sales and early opening times (Not quite 5am, as it is still a bank holiday after all...) is the most of the year. Because a lot of retailers are struggling, today will be quite important to them - as will the next few days.

It's great. :)
I hope everyone had a great Christman and will enjoy a wonderful New Year. The weather in SWFL is wonderful today unless you want high surf. Had to change ski plans for the post Christmas break since it is so warm in Banner Elk. Hope 2009 brings cold and snow to the hills.
Hmm, it looks like instead of snow, we'll have two days of rain starting tomorrow, and warm weather, which could wash most of the snow away. Also, great poem, but since when does "data" rhyme with "later" or "equator"?
Thanks, Dr. M

a new QuikSCAT satellite

Amen!
The current one is what? 7 years beyond design life? Could fail completely at any time. Not to mention that if it continues to work, a second QuikSCAT would be in a slightly different orbit and our site revisit time would be smaller.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, Dr. M

a new QuikSCAT satellite

Amen!
The current one is what? 7 years beyond design life? Could fail completely at any time. Not to mention that if it continues to work, a second QuikSCAT would be in a slightly different orbit and our site revisit time would be smaller.


Suggestion: add boosters to Space Shuttle to make it able to reach altitude of QuickSCAT satellite. :D
Thanks DOC for creating this space
where we can gather to celebrate,
mourn, learn, understand both
human and mother nature.

Blessed 2009 to you and yours.

Dr Jeff,
A belated Merry Christmas / Happy Holiday greeting to you and family... and to all contributors in WUland!!!

Yes, I'll second that wish for more data!
Hoping that Santa delivers what was announced / promised over 3 years ago for the KHUM airport - an updated, real 24 hr AWOS / ASOS station built up to NWS standards for Houma LA... still no sign of it... LOL, the airport shut down everything 2 days before Gustav arrived, so no useful data was obtained from there... or 3 LUMCON stations in S Terrebonne either... Does no good to have 'em and not maintain / use 'em! Thankfully, we had a few USGS obs in the southern coastal sections and the LSU AgCenter (LAIS) station (Sugarcane HUML1) in N Terrebonne (NW of Houma) to provide some reliable obs... Otherwise, pathetically sparse data has always been the rule in coastal LA...
It's the day after Christmas "how to" problem. Received an indoor/outdoor basic weather gizmo. The problem is "How does one attach an anemometer 20 feet up? Thanks.
Dr.Masters,
Will you be writing a 2008 Year in Review? Any Predictions for 2009?

Thank you to turtlehurricane, Jp, stormw, Weather456 and so on for continuing the progress of WU.
Happy Holidays to all my WU Friends! I hope everyone has a great New Year ! :o) Now I gotta grab a shovel and dig out for the second day in a row. Vortfix, your heavy snow diagram definitely nailed me!!!


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1035 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1035 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. LATE TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL BEING POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH FIRE DANGER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES DROP TO BELOW 20 PERCENT WITH STRONG WEST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
Photobucket

Weather Synopsis...Deepening low pressure will maintain strong south winds today. Gusts over 40 mph will be common in western and central Oklahoma. It will feel like spring...with temperatures in the 70s...and dewpoints as high as 65 degrees in southeast Oklahoma. An upper level storm will arrive tonight...producing a good chance for rain and thunderstorms from Wichita Falls and Oklahoma City eastward. It appears some of the storms will be severe...with damaging winds and large hail. There is even a risk for tornadoes in southeast Oklahoma. The storms will move very fast...so plan ahead and stay close to weather information overnight.
Happy Holidays everyone!

Jeff, Devs & Admin~ Thank you for this weather playland you've created & maintained... Jeff your blog, time, teachings & musings here, we sensed it would be a force, but wow, this year really scratched the potental of what this gathering can do.

Here is one for the 2008 recods..
Mississippi Sets New Record for Tornadoes in 2008
December FLATS -- through the end of the year - SE under zonal flow - not allowing big lows to drop in the Gulf.. Eventually the high will break down and move away -- till then I am starving for waves.

Nice day East of I75 In SWFL - The polo club has come to life.... all the barns are full, every pasture filled with horses.... the trails are busy with grooms riding and working out sets of horses.... the track is filled with constant activity. Our horses were rather pokey and lazy -- so either they are feeling the incoming humidity and heat or they may have been up playing and causing a ruckus in the pasture. We thought they seemed a bit tired so we dropped a lap off the workout.

They have game tomorrow, and we decided better to play rested then tired.
Skye - great post #45 - you are always so GOOD at saying so MUCH in so few words -- whoo hooo WU!
Slummed the weather wire & updated my blog. Waves may be flat in the gulf but they are over 20' in CA. This was most interesting..
140mph winds damaged Reno's NWS radar


surfmom~ Thanks, that's a skill blogging taught me. As for the herd, mine seem a little lazy too. I think it's the heat. I hope my winter rye makes it through this coming spell.
I hope everyone had a Merry Xmas.
40. flslp

Verrry carefully.

Greetings to all.
Happy holidays. And with all due respect for stormchasers, I would wish for a VERY boring year for you. ;-) After surviving a Super Tuesday EF4 that took out our house, I am ready for a quiet weather year. Might not get it, though. I'm having a panic attack over the weather moving into Arkansas tomorrow...

Anyone want to trade a place where there are no tornadoes for a nice hobby acreage in tornado alley in Arkansas??? LOL.
With warm weather and rain moving into S. Ontario tomorrow, anyone know if we might be getting any thunderstorms? I wonder what it must be like to live in tornado alley...but maybe global warming will cause a shift of the alley to be right over us in the decades to come. The municipality (in other words, town, city, township, etc) that I live in has seen more than two tornadoes in the past decade, but they've all been fairly weak. We've had about 36 thunderstorm days this year, and I've seen about seven rainbows, both of which are way above average. We also had one late-October hailstorm, and another on Victoria Day that wasn't accompanied by a thunderstorm. A wild year, indeed! The same low that caused the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak spawned two days of temperatures higher than 15C (60F) in mid-January, melting my then-8-ft-tall snowman. We've also been hit by the remnants of Ike, and those of Fay and Gustav gave us drizzle. I've taken about 1000 pictures of clouds this year (no kidding!), and the clear night skies this summer and fall allowed me to find a great deal of deep-sky objects through my telescope. Cheers to an interesting (and hopefully not so destructive) 2009!
P.S. The "modify comment" and "quote" buttons suck. They don't even work about 60% of the time, and just result in a reloading of the whole page.
Happy and safe Holidays to all of the wunderground bloggers who have entertained and educated me over the last several years...

Blessings and Light,

Texas Sassy
Dr. Masters what an interesting poem ;) And skypeony what a shame about the radar, you would think they would have a few backups ready to install. Hope they replace it soon.
55. afj3
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Suggestion: add boosters to Space Shuttle to make it able to reach altitude of QuickSCAT satellite. :D

Wait. I thought they chased Proenza out because he really wanted a new QuickSCAT satellite and they said it wasn't necessary. Now a year later it is? Am I wrong?
A Look Back At Hurricane Ike

Caused 27 Billion dollars USD damage

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast For Area Between 125E-142E
2:15 PM ACST December 27 2008
================================

A Tropical Low, [1003 hPa] located over the Cape York Peninsula is moving westwards. This low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria overnight and is expected to continue on a west or southwest track, to be over land in the Roper-McArthur District on Monday. Some deepening may occur as the system moves through the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria and a northwest monsoonal burst develops to the north. However, the low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next three days.
wow that video post is widescreened, LOL
Quoting afj3:

Wait. I thought they chased Proenza out because he really wanted a new QuickSCAT satellite and they said it wasn't necessary. Now a year later it is? Am I wrong?


Just a little joke, the space shuttle is incapable of reaching that altitude. We do need a new QuickSCAT.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Storm Force Winds Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy
3:50 PM WDT December 27 2008
===============================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, CAT 2 [982 hPa] located 15.1S 112.9E or 770 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported moving west-northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in western quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
=================================
12 HRS: 15.2S 112.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.6S 111.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.5S 108.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.4S 106.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
Good morning!

There arre currently four tornado watch boxes in effect:

Current Convective Watches






SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
358 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 27 2008 - 00Z MON DEC 29 2008

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AS THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. FOLKS SEEING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY WILL SEE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY JUST
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DECLINE
AFTERWARD.

A FETCH OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS IS SENDING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND IN FACT... WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT ALL THE
WAY TO THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMTH... AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT REGIONS FROM THE ARKLATEX... NORTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN
TODAY IN THE FORM OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MISSOURI... DOWN INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA... EAST TEXAS AND
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH
AHEAD OF... AND STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. A
QUICK SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY INTO IOWA... WITH HEAVIER
WRAP AROUND SNOW FALLING INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.

THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ON
SUNDAY... HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
FALLS WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. COMPARED TO TODAYS EXPECTED RAINFALL... LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FRONT... WITH PERHAPS SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

LOOKING WEST... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL STEER
THE ACTION INTO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT A
FRONT TO CROSS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON TODAY BRINGING
PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW... FAVORING A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA... OREGON... AND WASHINGTON... INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF IDAHO... WESTERN MONTANA AND THE WYOMING TETONS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

OTTO


Photobucket



Coffee with Cinnamon -- December Flats/lake like conditions for the Gulf. Water temp is 64 degrees. Air is 65 - postcard weather for tourists..... great for kayaking, Stand Up Board paddling, skimmers, fishermen, boats -- but not surfers -- we just have to continue waiting for our turn. In the meantime, pick another sport and go play.
Beautiful Morning in SWFL - the fingers of dawn stretched across the dawn sky -- just love walking the dog in these early hours - listening to all the birds sing their wake-up songs -- the day still fresh with out too much imprint from humans.

The Barn & horses beckon me in just a few -- wishing it was just a tad bit cooler for the Polo Practice - will probably have to hose the horses back end legs & chest to help keep them cool.

Certainly would appreciate a good rainy day here -- it's been a long time -- Like Skyepony mentioned -- need some rain, a bit of cooler temp. for winter rye, and pasture grasses to re-seed and grow. I''m already bringing in huge Hay Bales to supplement.

Catch you all Later
Dallas/Ft. Worth NWS:




Norman, Oklahoma NWS:




I will post a severe weather analysis shortly...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
wow that video post is widescreened, LOL


yes, my videos are in HD format
Severe Weather Analysis By Futuremet

There will be a high threat for severe weather later today as a mesoscale cyclone develops along the baroclinic zone near northern Texas. Surface winds indicate that the lower level convergence is strong; and the upper level jet stream and an adjacent equatorial ridge should help provide better upper level diffluence.
There is sufficient energy for a severe weather outbreak today. The low pressure system along the frontal zone and the strong surface winds associated with it helps plenty of warm air advection throughout much of the Midwest. The current Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values are adequate for supercellular thunderstorm development. CAPE values are 2000 J/Kg , and LI values are -5.0 over much of eastern Oklahoma, and southeastern Kansas, which is favorable for severe weather. There is also an outside chance of that tornadogenesis may occur within some of the supercells this afternoon. There is an ample quantity of wind shear to help the drive the rotation within the supercellular storms. The jet stream winds are primarily from the west-southwest blowing about 120 MPH, and the surface winds are mostly from the south and southeast at times, blowing about 15-20 MPH. Thus, both directional and speed are quite substantial, and will therefore help increase vorticity values within the supercellular storns. In addition to the high shearing winds, the overall energy is favorable for a significant severe weather outbreak. The lifting mechanisms are vigorous, and will likely grow more favorable during this afternoon as day time heating enhances vertical motion, and the energy available for lifting.

The primary threat will be in eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas

OVERALL THREATS
Severe thunderstorms
Isolated tornadoes
Hail
Wind damage (i.e downburst and derechos)









MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK...WRN AND CNTRL AR...SERN TWO
THIRDS OF MO...PARTS OF W CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 957...959...960...

VALID 271403Z - 271600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
957...959...960...CONTINUES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING. BUT...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU/ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BY 17-18Z...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/EAST OF
QUINCY IL...COLUMBIA AND SPRINGFIELD MO...INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH SOUTHERLY 850
MB WINDS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN FROM 60 TO 70+ KTS. STRONG TO
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES WITH TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THE LINE...PARTICULARLY AS THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO WARM MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AND...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

..KERR.. 12/27/2008
Eventually, you will hear my voice in the videos.

I am planning on making weather forecasts and analyses using my voice. I believe it will have a greater impact on my audience.

Do you guys think its a good Idea?
Quoting futuremet:
Eventually, you will hear my voice in the videos.

I am planning on making weather forecasts and analyses using my voice. I believe it will have a greater impact on my audience.

Do you guys think its a good Idea?


It's an excellent idea.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's an excellent idea.


I agree and Happy Holidays to all!
So hot here in SWFL, hard to beleive how cold November was. Luckily the East wind was blowing very strong this morning -- so the horses did not get that hot -- but now - sheesh it's like summer -- NO complaints here mind you --
... well it might be nice to have a wave or two to surf...... spouse pulled down the kayak and even though domestics are shouting my name.... the song of the Ocean is calling me louder -- if I can't get Captn' Jack Sparrow -- I'll go find Kind Neptune..... I'm running away... for a little while
Quoting surfmom:
So hot here in SWFL, hard to beleive how cold November was. Luckily the East wind was blowing very strong this morning -- so the horses did not get that hot -- but now - sheesh it's like summer -- NO complaints here mind you --
... well it might be nice to have a wave or two to surf...... spouse pulled down the kayak and even though domestics are shouting my name.... the song of the Ocean is calling me louder -- if I can't get Captn' Jack Sparrow -- I'll go find Kind Neptune..... I'm running away... for a little while


I hated it november
Wow, it looks like a few thunderstorms passed near us earlier in the day. There's still about 5 inches of snow on the ground but it's melting rapidly! And to think that we were originally predicted to see 40 cm of snow today, LOL!
Having an interesting day in the midwest so far.

Today's SPC severe reports

Ranging from Utility poles blown over (30 of them!) to roofs lifted from homes. 60 and 70 mph gusts measured in multiple states. Shingles, and branches, and fireworks stands...oh my.

Hope those folks are paying attention to warnings from a WX radio or the like.
76. HTV
http://jacksonhole.com/JacksonAssets/gallery/Photo%20Of%20The%20Day/122508.jpg

Talk about a White Christmas! Teton Village, WY. Dec. 25, 2008
75 -- I'm in northeastern IL and while we haven't had any severe weather we're in the process of rapid meltoff of over a foot of snow and 1.5-2.0 inches of rain to go with it. Flash flood warnings are issued for much of NE IL.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
407 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-111-197-INC073-089-111-
127-280300-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-081228T0300Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCHENRY IL-BOONE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-KANE IL-DEKALB IL-DUPAGE IL-
GRUNDY IL-KANKAKEE IL-KENDALL IL-WILL IL-LA SALLE IL-NEWTON IN-
JASPER IN-LAKE IN-PORTER IN-
407 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR
PORTER...LAKE...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...EASTERN LA
SALLE...WILL...KENDALL...NORTHERN KANKAKEE...GRUNDY...DUPAGE...
DEKALB...KANE...COOK...LAKE...EASTERN BOONE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES...
AT 405 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. IN ADDITION...THE EQUIVALENT OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF SNOW AND ICE MELT HAS BEEN RELEASED. COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED MANY FLOODED ROADS...CREEKS AND
DRAINAGE DITCHES.
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH 600 PM.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE ENTIRE CHICAGO METRO AREA INCLUDING THE
CITY OF CHICAGO.
RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADS...VIADUCTS...
UNDERPASSES...CREEKS AND DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
AREAS AND KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOOD WATERS.
DO NOT GO INTO A FLOODED BASEMENT. THERE MAY BE AN ELECTRIC SHOCK
HAZARD IF FLOOD WATER COVERS ELECTRICAL OUTLETS OR APPLIANCES.

Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab.Link

The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. We specialize in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which we obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops. These data have many applications for re
earch, education, and state emergency response.

Unusual Weather "Blankets" Louisiana!! Link
Dish Antenna on roof Dec 11th Link

And also interrupted reception of the GOES-12 satellite!


Latest Image of the Month.
Snow cover West and n'west of Lake Pontchartrain Dec-12th Link
A little ice? Ho Hum.

After cleaning the mold off the dish spray it down good with silicone spray or even a couple good coats of car wax. Really helps as a release agent for ice. Works wonders on my snowblower in the slush and wet snow.


TVS(s) North of Memphis radar
WOW, who stretched the blog? And can you fix it and put it back?
Quoting ILwatcher:
75 -- I'm in northeastern IL and while we haven't had any severe weather we're in the process of rapid meltoff of over a foot of snow and 1.5-2.0 inches of rain to go with it. Flash flood warnings are issued for much of NE IL.


I had both severe weather and heavy rainfall here; the latter making an already record wet year even wetter:





TOP TEN WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD

1. 57.84 (2008)
2. 54.97 (1982)
3. 54.76 (1993)
4. 51.65 (1984)
5. 50.83 (1927)
6. 50.73 (1985)
7. 50.31 (1946)
8. 49.28 (1915)
9. 49.20 (1898)
10. 48.46 (1876)
Does anybody have info on what hit Hawaii?
Does anybody have info on what hit Hawaii?
merry christmas and a happy new year to everyone,my computers been down,I will be purchasing a new one before spring starts and will be checking in from time to time,happy new year everyone Talk to you next year!!!!!
I, for one, am glad it finally stopped snowing. We got nearly 3 ft here in northern NM. Fierce winds too. gusts up to 60mph the other day. Today it was clear and cold. supposed to get to -8 tonight. brrr...best leave the faucet dripping.
STillwaiting -- was wondering where you were... yea a new computer. WEather's been great for fishing -- flat for surf --- had a nice kayak for an hour and change today. I'm out
Meteorologists also need better science and for government to stop wasting money on worthless projections of what climate might be like many years in the future. A science that sometimes has trouble accurately predicting weather a day or two in advance cannot predict what climate might be in the distant future.

Instead of using computers as glorified crystal balls, government needs to use computer time to study the various cycles(particularly for North America the el Nino / la Nina Southern Oscillation) that affect climate. This cycle along with the the Atlantic Oscillation may affect hurricane development and severity.

Scientists have only recently learned that the sun's radiation output varies over short time periods in addition to the variation associated with the 11 year sunspot cycle. Over the long term earth's changing relationship with the sun through the Milankovitch cycles is responsible for major climate changes such as ice ages and periods when the earth was much warmer than today.

Astrophysicists who have examined past records of sunspot activity believe the sun may be entering a period of reduced activity as part of a long term (multi century) solar sunspot cycle. More research is needed in this area because the last quiet period was associated with significantly lower temperatures in the northern hemisphere.

More research is needed in the area of the biology of rainfall. Scientists have discovered that the bacteria that cause frost to form on plants may play a role in rainfall, possibly by causing water vapor to condense on dust particles.

Meteorologists need to abandon long disproved 19th Century beliefs. In the 19th Century scientists believed that atoms were the smallest particles of matter, "dark ray"[infrared radiation] from the ground heated the atmosphere (by air molecules absorbing the radiation and converting it to heat energy) and greenhouses stayed warm by trapping infrared radiation.

During the physics revolution Sir J.J. Thomson proved that atoms were actually composed of smaller charged particles when he discovered the electron in 1897. R.W. Wood proved that trapping IR didn't cause greenhouses to stay warm in 1909. Niels Bohr received a Nobel Prize for his research in 1913 indicated that absorbing specific wavelengths of light changed the energy state of a molecule's electrons rather than causing it to become hotter.

Meteorologists need to recognize that the 19th Century concept of a black body cannot apply to earth. The black body model is a simple linear model involving the case of a solid in a vacuum. The model cannot apply to a planet with a largely liquid surface surrounded by a gaseous envelope because such a system is extremely chaotic. In fact meteorologists played a primary role in establishing the math/science field of chaos theory which is the most important development in math science theory in the last 50 years.

Those who believe that earth is a simple radiation in radiation out system fail to understand that the sun is the sole source of energy for earth's biosphere.

89. IKE
Quoting RTLSNK:
WOW, who stretched the blog? And can you fix it and put it back?


futuremet did.

Can you please fix it futuremet?

Just click "hide" on his post and it will be fixed.

Wow...89 posts on here in 4 days.
Good morning -

Hi Ike - was noticing the same things about the posts - must be a new all time record.

Quoting IKE:


futuremet did.

Can you please fix it futuremet?

Just click "hide" on his post and it will be fixed.

Wow...89 posts on here in 4 days.


fixed...sorry
92. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:
Good morning -

Hi Ike - was noticing the same things about the posts - must be a new all time record.



Blog just completely dies in the off-season.

Thanks futuremet.
Good morning everyone, big game today.. win or walk for my Dolphins.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning everyone, big game today.. win or walk for my Dolphins.


Nice! good morning everyone.
Quoting kellnerp:
Does anybody have info on what hit Hawaii?


Obama.
2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved
Looking back over my columns of the past 12 months, one of their major themes was neatly encapsulated by two recent items from The Daily Telegraph.

By Christopher Booker
Last Updated: 10:59AM GMT 28 Dec 2008 AP
The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".

Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.

First, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.

Ever shriller and more frantic has become the insistence of the warmists, cheered on by their army of media groupies such as the BBC, that the last 10 years have been the "hottest in history" and that the North Pole would soon be ice-free – as the poles remain defiantly icebound and those polar bears fail to drown. All those hysterical predictions that we are seeing more droughts and hurricanes than ever before have infuriatingly failed to materialise.

Even the more cautious scientific acolytes of the official orthodoxy now admit that, thanks to "natural factors" such as ocean currents, temperatures have failed to rise as predicted (although they plaintively assure us that this cooling effect is merely "masking the underlying warming trend", and that the temperature rise will resume worse than ever by the middle of the next decade).
I was at can Gustov and Ike, the damage at Ike was wide spread, and old Galveston, the damage was minimal, compared to Katrina, which I was there too. the barrier islands had most of the damage in Galveston county, my GPS showed that I was at 38ft above sea level in parts of old Galveston. katrina was much much worse than this storm by far. I was suprised by the lack of damage to the old homes and business structures in Galveston. Most of the homes in the bay were damage due to the fact they had glass as a major part of their construction, the homes that had less glass had the less damage. Next time they build maybe they should use the lesser glass aproach in a hurricane prone area.
Quoting presslord:
2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved


LOL... The Telegraph is one of the biggest denialist/disinformation sites there is... that is all a load of garbage... especially to say that one year that is cooler proves that global warming isn't real... LOL (they have no clue as to why it is called a trend or why temperatures do not simply increase every year in a linear fashion)... see here for what the scientists say about this year - no media bias either. Also, scientists actually did predict that this year would be cooler because of La Nina - nothing unusual there (unlike what that trashy biased denialist article suggests):

2008 Likely To Be One Of The Top-ten Warmest Years

ScienceDaily (Jan. 8, 2008) — 2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to be one of the top-ten warmest years.

Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects and natural variations of the oceans.

Global temperature for 2008 is expected to be 0.37 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, the coolest year since 2000, when the value was 0.24 °C.

For 2008, the development of a strong La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean will limit the warming trend of the global climate. During La Niña, cold waters upwell to cool large areas of the ocean and land surface temperatures. The forecast includes for the first time a new decadal forecast using a climate model. This indicates that the current La Niña event will weaken only slowly through 2008, disappearing by the end of the year.

Prof. Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Niña will act to limit temperatures in 2008. However, mean temperature is still expected to be significantly warmer than in 2000, when a similar strength La Niña pegged temperatures to 0.24 °C above the 1961-90 average. Sharply renewed warming is likely once La Niña declines."


Notice the second graph in particular and the bottommost graph in it, and which areas were cooler this year compared to recent years - and which areas were warmer:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
(Jan-Dec anomalies except for 2008 which is through November)



Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

(from here, another scientific analysis without any media bias)

So why don't you stop looking at denialist media sites and look at the real science? The world would be a lot better place if everybody did so.
Very warm 2008 makes this the hottest decade in recorded history by far*

The climate story of the decade is that the 2000s are on track to be nearly 0.2°C warmer than the 1990s. And that temperature jump is especially worrisome since the 1990s were only 0.14°C warmer than the 1980s (see datasets here). Global warming is accelerating, as predicted.

The UK’s Guardian, on the other hand, believes the big climate story is “2008 will be coolest year of the decade*.” The deniers have begun pushing this meme, as Greenfyre notes here. [Even that meme assumes the decade began in 2001 — since 2000 was quite cool — a view mostly shared be the few dozen people who didn’t celebrate at a millennial New Year’s party December 31, 1999.]

Climate is about long-term trends. Perhaps the most interesting fact is that 2008 is on track to be almost 0.1°C warmer than the decade of the 1990s as a whole – and warmer than any year of last century beside (the El-Niño-enhanced) 1998.
101. IKE
I think STL sits by his computer all day and night long just waiting to cut-down those that don't believe in GW.

Just amazing.

So why don't you stop looking at denialist media sites and look at the real science? The world would be a lot better place if everybody did so.
Action: Quote | Ignore User

and...Why don't you develop a sense of humor? I posted it because I found it amusing...for exactly the reasons you state...
Quoting presslord:
Why don't you develop a sense of humor? I posted it because I found it amusing...for exactly the reasons you state...


You know how annoyed I get when stuff like that is posted, especially when a lot of the stuff isn't true, like the "global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century." part. Also, the stuff about record snowfalls - this analysis shows that winter snowcover has not changed in any significant way over the last 40 years, but spring and summer snowfall have (because even with warmer temperatures more precipitation means more chances of snow (also the possibility of heavier snowfalls); also of note for places like New Orleans which don't normally see snow do get cold enough several times a winter but usually don't have any precipitation when it does, similar to how the average first frost occurs about a month before the first snowfall here).



...and you know how amused I get by simplistic answers to complex questions...
I honestly could care less about Global warming...

Us synopticians despise perfection....Perfection in atmospheric dynamics makes it boring. If the atmosphere were to be perfect, there would be no need to research and gather data, and thus no need for meteorologists. It is a paradox really, we forecasters strive for better accuracy in forecasts, yet despises perfection.
I really hope that someone here is "leading" by example.

Living in a 400 sq foot flat very near to their job (regardless of downtown crime, or wherever)...owns no car (having sold the Ford Inexcusable to buy enough solar panels to run their computer for an hour)...freezes in the winter...sweats in the summer...goes to sleep at dusk, rather than "kill the planet" with artificial lighting that consumes energy backed by fossil fuels...visits no one outside of walking distance (no, a bike is not acceptable, as fossil fuels would be consumed during it's manufacture and transport).

Any AGW fans here actually living like they want to tell everyone else to?
I'll go out on a limb and guess no.
Wow, CRAZY weather last night and today. Unreal. That's all I can say. Last night, just before midnight, I was still awake and looked out my window. The sky was clear! I saw Sirius, Procyon, and Regulus. Then, at three minutes past midnight, Sirius suddenly vanished. Yeah, one second the star would be shining with no clouds near it, and like five seconds later a cloud would cover it. The wind was blowing the clouds around at, probably 100 km/h (60 mph)! I looked at my thermometer (I have an indoor/outdoor thermometer at my bedroom window) under the dim light pollution from outside, and it read 11C. The wind at that point gusted to 50 km/h (30 mph). By the time I woke up in the morning, I discovered that we had reached our daytime high overnight. It was 13C (56F)! That's 20C (45F) higher than our normal nighttime temperature for this time of year! Of course, I'm not going to blame this on global warming, but we could expect more events like this with more GW. I kept hearing some low rumblings, and couldn't tell if they were the wind howling, thunder, airplanes, or cars driving through water. It was so warm that indoor heating was temporarily unnesecary. By the time I woke up in the morning, the wind was noticeably blowing around the stratus clouds. The cold front was over us, and quickly moved past at the speed of 100 km/h. As the cold front passed, the windblown clouds and the snow which had melted caused me to take twenty-five pictures with my camera. Anyway, There were stratocumulus, cumulus, and fractus clouds blowing around. Yes, CUMULUS, in the middle of winter! There are even some leaves still on a few of the trees! There are hundreds of leaves blowing around! I also saw some clouds iridescence and a sundog. I could also visibly see the cold front clouds retreating into the distance. As we speak (or rather, type), winds are gusting to 80 km/h (50 mph), and the temperature is quickly falling, and will drop below freezing tonight. We are under a wind warning! In fact, as I opened my window this morning, it felt--and smelled--like early fall, not early winter! Now, remember that we did have an occurence similar, but stronger than this, last winter, in mid-January. It was, after all, predicted to have above-average temperatures and precipitation this winter. Anyway, remember the base snowball I'd built for a snowman? It hadn't completely melted, in fact it's still standing about 2 feet tall, but it's been reduced to about 3% its former size. Also, speaking about global warming, I too cannot stand the often-invalid arguments made by the so-called "skeptics". Snow in NOLA is weather, not climate. Anyway, have a happy new year, everyone!
Caffinated morning discussion!
Quoting futuremet:
I honestly could care less about Global warming...

Us synopticians despise perfection....Perfection in atmospheric dynamics makes it boring. If the atmosphere were to be perfect, there would be no need to research and gather data, and thus no need for meteorologists. It is a paradox really, we forecasters strive for better accuracy in forecasts, yet despises perfection.


As long a calculus lives by it's current rules, perfection will not happen anyway.

Synoptic Forecasting: The time derivative of atmospheric motion literally "has no real solution", thanks to the compressibility of that particular fluid.

Climate Forecasting: The proof of any wave dynamics (read shortwave and longwave flux) starts with "let us assume the sin of theta equals theta", which is never actually true, but allows for integration. So, error is also in the proof itself.
atmo....you pretty accurately described my lifestyle in college.....though not so much today....
Quoting futuremet:
I honestly could care less about Global warming...

Don't you live in Key West?? Given your altitude, global warming is not your friend.

http://www.keywestcity.com/egov/docs/1179941507_255767.pdf

atmo~ I try to live by example. Not your example of a deprived, uncomfortable activist but I impact less than most. I grow (check out my carrot) or make as much of my own as I can, buy local what I can't, if I can. I've been selling my extra lemons. There's the highly effecient little car for commuting, try to bike, hike or take a pony when we can. I'm saving the savings from calking the house, changing the lightbulbs to efficent, new appliances, the last..a new ac is saving a killing..next will be a solar hot water heater. I've let each little efficent savings build til I can get another..it's snowballing now. In a few more years I hope to add panels to tie into the grid.

There's a strand of LED Christmas bulbs out there with 100 good sized lights on it that use so little electricity you can safely plug 87 strands back to back into one outlet. Yeah I said 87... Times are changing people:)
Afternoon all.

Just checking in for a minute or two. Any word on the tropical low that was working its way across the York Peninsula in Oz?
Sky - didn't realize the led christmas lights were that good - will have to invest in them as the old ones go.

We do the same as you - have replaced light bulbs, monitor the ac - put new ones in, changed out old freezer for new. Always looking for energy efficiency.

Would love to find workable solar program that isn't 30,000 to start. At that rate, you do not even recognize a savings over the life of the home.

One of our bigger areas is water conservation - looking into a rain barrel with drip hose for gardens. Simple investment, natural, and good for environment.
Hi Baha - how was your holiday?

Just hanging out for a few minutes - going to lunch but baby is still napping. First rule of life - don't wake a sleeping baby.
MMGW is not a fore-gone conclusion no matter what some alarmist say.
117. DDR
Is it just me or does anyone here think the itcz is over active for this time f the year?
Absolutely STUNNING day today here - 82 degrees right now. I even got motivated to do yardwork - just wish the grass was green instead of dormant brown. Really hard to believe it's almost January.

Hope everyone had a happy holiday and have a safe New Years.

Mel
Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~ I try to live by example. Not your example of a deprived, uncomfortable activist but I impact less than most. I grow (check out my carrot) or make as much of my own as I can, buy local what I can't, if I can. I've been selling my extra lemons. There's the highly effecient little car for commuting, try to bike, hike or take a pony when we can. I'm saving the savings from calking the house, changing the lightbulbs to efficent, new appliances, the last..a new ac is saving a killing..next will be a solar hot water heater. I've let each little efficent savings build til I can get another..it's snowballing now. In a few more years I hope to add panels to tie into the grid.

There's a strand of LED Christmas bulbs out there with 100 good sized lights on it that use so little electricity you can safely plug 87 strands back to back into one outlet. Yeah I said 87... Times are changing people:)
Quoting zoomiami:
Sky - didn't realize the led christmas lights were that good - will have to invest in them as the old ones go.

We do the same as you - have replaced light bulbs, monitor the ac - put new ones in, changed out old freezer for new. Always looking for energy efficiency.

Would love to find workable solar program that isn't 30,000 to start. At that rate, you do not even recognize a savings over the life of the home.

One of our bigger areas is water conservation - looking into a rain barrel with drip hose for gardens. Simple investment, natural, and good for environment.


Great! I am glad you are saving a little money. But to be honest, these measures will not have any detectable impact on total CO2, even if everyone went out today and replaced their appliances with some more efficient model. (Not to mention the wasted resources in doing so).

The zealots want your power bill to double, even with more efficient appliances. The heat in your freezer is still moved to your house and then (in the summer) moved to the outside and that relocation of heat requires energy. The zealots would much rather you got rid of your freezer, car, AC, clothes dryer, etc. And the zealots are right! (at least in what it would take)

Do you realize the measures it would actually take to achieve some goal of really reducing CO2 emissions? We would all have to live like the Amish permanently...something I am not interested in doing based on flakey historical data, incomplete satellite measurements (not historical enough), and the assumption that we know all there is to know about natural forcings, the changes in amplitude of those forcings, and all of the teleconnections of those forcings.

Not trying to berate anyone here, just pointing out what lifestyle changes would have a real effect and how weak the so-called evidence is to do so.
WARMING, OR HOT AIR?


Posted at 10:09 a.m. ET

Frank Tipler, the distinguished mathematical physicist at Tulane University, is an Urgent Agenda reader. We recently asked him for his view of the global-warming controversy, and he was kind enough to send us this thoughtful reply. We reprint it in full. Recommended reading:

As regards global warming, my view is essentially the same as yours: Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is a scam, with no basis in science.

A few comments on my own particular view of global warming:

(1) I am particularly annoyed by the claims that the "the debate is over," because this was exactly the claim originally made against the Copernican theory of the Solar System. Copernicus' opponents said the idea that the Earth was the third planet from the Sun was advanced by Aristrachus in 300 B.C. (true), and had been definitely refuted by 100 A.D. The debate is over! Sorry, it wasn't: the Earth IS the third planet.

(2) It is obvious that anthropogenic global warming is not science at all, because a scientific theory makes non-obvious predictions which are then compared with observations that the average person can check for himself. As we both know from our own observations, AGW theory has spectacularly failed to do this. The theory has predicted steadily increasing global temperatures, and this has been refuted by experience. NOW the global warmers claim that the Earth will enter a cooling period. In other words, whether the ice caps melt, or expand --- whatever happens --- the AGW theorists claim it confirms their theory. A perfect example of a pseudo-science like astrology.

(3) In contrast, the alternative theory, that the increase and decrease of the Earth's average temperature in the near term follows the sunspot number, agrees (roughly) with observation. And the observations were predicted before they occurred. This is good science.

(4) I emphasized in point (2) that the average person has to be able to check the observations. I emphasize this because I no longer trust "scientists" to report observations correctly. I think the data is adjusted to confirm, as far as possible, AGW. We've seen many recent cases where the data was cooked in climate studies. In one case, Hanson and company claimed that October 2008 was the warmest October on record. Watts looked at the data, and discovered that Hanson and company had used September's temperatures for Russia rather than October's. I'm not surprised to learn that September is hotter than October in the Northern hemisphere.

It snowed here in New Orleans last week and it was the second heaviest snowfall I've seen in the 25 years I've lived in New Orleans. According to the local newspaper, it was the earliest snow had fallen in New Orleans since records were kept, beginning in 1850. I myself have looked at the relative predictive power of Copernicus's theory and the then rival Ptolemaic theory. Copernicus was on the average twice as accurate, and the average person of the time could tell. Similarly, anybody today can check the number of sunspots. Or rather the lack of them. When I first starting teaching astronomy at Tulane in the early 1980's, I would show sunspots to my students by pointing a small $25 reflecting telescope at the Sun, and focusing the Sun's image on the wall of the classroom. Sunspots were obviously in the image on the wall. I can't do this experiment today, because there are no sunspots.

(5) Another shocking thing about the AGW theory is that it is generating a loss of true scientific knowledge. The great astronomer William Herschel, the discoverer of the planet Uranus, observed in the early 1800's that warm weather was correlated with sunspot number. Herschel noticed that warmer weather meant better crops, and thus fewer sunspots meant higher grain prices. The AGW people are trying to do a disappearing act on these observations. Some are trying to deny the existence of the Maunder Minimum.

(6) AGW supporters are also bringing back the Inquisition, where the power of the state is used to silence one's scientific opponents. The case of Bjorn Lomborg is illustrative. Lomborg is a tenured professor of mathematics in Denmark. Shortly after his book, "The Skeptical Environmentalist," was published by Cambridge University Press, Lomborg was charged and convicted (later reversed) of scientific fraud for being critical of the "consensus" view on AGW and other environmental questions. Had the conviction been upheld, Lomborg would have been fired. Stillman Drake, the world's leading Galileo scholar, demonstrates in his book "Galileo: A Very Short Introduction" (Oxford University Press, 2001) that it was not theologians, but rather his fellow physicists (then called "natural philosophers"), who manipulated the Inquisition into trying and convicting Galileo. The "out-of-the-mainsteam" Galileo had the gall to prove the consensus view, the Aristotlean theory, wrong by devising simple experiments that anyone could do. Galileo's fellow scientists first tried to refute him by argument from authority. They failed. Then these "scientists" tried calling Galileo names, but this made no impression on the average person, who could see with his own eyes that Galileo was right. Finally, Galileo's fellow "scientists" called in the Inquisition to silence him.

I find it very disturbing that part of the Danish Inquisition's case against Lomborg was written by John Holdren, Obama's new science advisor. Holdren has recently written that people like Lomborg are "dangerous." I think it is people like Holdren who are dangerous, because they are willing to use state power to silence their scientific opponents.

(7) I agree with Dick Lindzen that the AGW nonsense is generated by government funding of science. If a guy agrees with AGW, then he can get a government contract. If he is a skeptic, then no contract. There is a professor at Tulane, with a Ph.D in paleoclimatology, who is as skeptical as I am about AGW, but he'd never be considered for tenure at Tulane because of his professional opinion. No government contracts, no tenure.

(8) This is why I am astounded that people who should know better, like Newt Gingrich, advocate increased government funding for scientific research. We had better science, and a more rapid advance of science, in the early part of the 20th century when there was no centralized government funding for science. Einstein discovered relativity on his own time, while he was employed as a patent clerk. Where are the Einsteins of today? They would never be able to get a university job --- Einstein's idea that time duration depended on the observer was very much opposed to the "consensus" view of the time. Einstein's idea that light was composed of particles (now called "photons") was also considered crazy by all physicists when he first published the idea. At least then he could publish the idea. Now a refereed journal would never even consider a paper written by a patent clerk, and all 1905 physics referees would agree that relativity and quantum mechanics were nonsense, definitely against the overwhelming consensus view. So journals would reject Einstein's papers if he were to write them today.

Science is an economic good like everything else, and it is very bad for production of high quality goods for the government to control the means of production. Why can't Newt Gingrich understand this? Milton Friedman understood it, and advocated cutting off government funding for science.

We should add that President Dwight D. Eisenhower, in his famous farewell address as president - the "industrial-military complex" speech - also warned of the intersection between science and government. This is what he said:

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

We thank Professor Tipler for his contribution.

December 22, 2008.
Link
The debate is healthy...regardless of perspective...
I believe that each of us need to do what's reasonable under the circumstances, including using the technology as it continues to evolve. Conservation is something that all of us can practice.

The CO2 emissions are another debate entirely.
Quoting presslord:
The debate is healthy...regardless of perspective...


Agreed...so long as it is allowed to happen, unlike the examples from vort's post. When the state and "consensus" indirectly forbid quality work that might show a different possibility is when we have metaphorically decided that the Earth is not the third planet.
If the US and other independant state governments are now so concerned about potential catastrophic climate change due to mankind, why haven't they funded a Manhattan type project involving solar power as an example?

When I see the upcoming trading in carbon credits and the cap and trade schemes being advanced by these governments it makes me pause and realize this is just another convenient avenue for generating more tax dollars to continue funding entitlement programs which mostly don't work anyway.

Why was funding for the research solutions not provided if the government is so concerned for all of us?

No...I'm just seeing another taxing opportunity...not the technological development program we desperately need with or without a climate change threat.





vort~ He definately has good points about the whole political way this discussion is going down. I kinda don't see where the sunspots play as they are already factored in as natural forcing. What a bub about the GISS goof, they caught it, they are human, to error now & then is expected. He's a mathematical physicist.. not the type that takes alotta chemistry & biochemistry. There are experiments that prove greenhouse gases trap heat. Granted they aren't simple like proving sunspots. I studied to be a physicists, my chem & bio teachers convinced me long ago.

atmo~ I didn't say I've saved a little money..I've saved alot. I've cut my electric bill 2/3rds & I'm not done. What if everyone did that? Maybe cut the country's home electric use by 1/2? What if building green & substanably became standard? The little car has payed for itself & continues to save us atleast $2400 a year in gas compared to old gusler. & the CO2 output caused by everyone eating banannas or stuff that is grown 1/2 way around the world is huge. It's excellerating deforstation & isn't substainable. Just to eat local is a large impact..especially if we all did it. & grow your own the mostly free substanable way, with compost...saves near $300 a month. For driving on short errands I should have a little electric car that plugs into a solar panel at home by now. I know~ it's not the amish way. Living green & substainable is less money out of pocket without a lower standard of living. I'm sick of CEOs milking me & saying depleating resourses is the only way.

zoo~ The logical order for here since it's not new was to cut my bill & power needs as much as I could. Then I'll grid tie a smaller package til I realize some actual cash savings to afford more. With the smaller package, it's full utilized as savings every time the sun shines so it gives it's full worth right away. Water heaters tend to use alot generally 1/4 of the total. A solar one is only a few grand & pay back in like 4 to 6 years. Some states rebate too. Can't say enough about caulking either.
vort~ after the big gas crisis of the 70s all sorts of govt solar projects began. When the next president came in they all ended~ Even the solar panels were removed from the white house.

I do think your right~ this argument either way is going to be used for greed & aquiring money someway. Biofuels for the most part is about the worst, unsubstaniable idea (in most instances) I've seen yet as being pro enviroment.
Even the UN is promoting the cap and trade scheme Skye. There is no coordinated concentrated effort to find a way out of fossil fuel dependance.

I remember the old short-lived programs too.
But oil still dominates and it will continue to do so until the people demand something else.

Quoting IKE:
I think STL sits by his computer all day and night long just waiting to cut-down those that don't believe in GW.

Just amazing.




Its a lil "wearing and tearing" to say the least IKE...wink,wink Link
129. beell
Stumbled across this today. A Power Point for everybody if you have the time to wade through it! A good review of the HWRF performance found in the "Hurricane Modeling" presentation.
2008 Review of the NCEP Production Suite:
"But oil still dominates and it will continue to do so until the people demand something else."

Hate to break it to you, but they have. Or maybe you haven't heard about the results of that election back in November?

112.
Ditto
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
112.
Ditto


A Rush-ism in response to conservation? Love it! LOL
Congrats Dolphins!!!! Now...where is my cold weather????
I believe humans are changing the climate.

I am a vegetarian
I use pretty much no packaging
I walk and take the bus
I try to build community and make new friends every day
I grow food
I try to help others
I eat 95% organic food that is grown within 100 miles of my house
I don't have fires or turn on the heater in the winter

We all can do more, so let's keep doing it. Whether for climate change, or the 1000 other reasons to reduce our impact on our World and make peace.

Peace
Patrick
154 days to go
133 -Geoffrey _ LOL "where is my cold weather"

heh, heh, heh -- I booted YOUR cold weather away with my flip flop
Whoooo HOOO Keeperofthegate!!! Been waiting to bump into you.... actually I see a lot of you these days.... I may have told you this -- there is a gorgeous, HUGE, Osprey that hangs out very often on the drawbridge I must run over to get to the key where I love to run.... when I see him -- I know it's means a great run run or an affirmation of something I have thought of or prayed about .... I named him KEEPEROFTHEGATE. I know he recognizes me at this point and we have often made eye contact -- he's just amazing and he loves the new name
SWFL Gomex Surfers --End of the year with no last licks of surfing for the memory box...and it looks like a slow start for 09. Patterns have not switched to a consistent winter set-up. Gulf temp is 64 degrees.....The fishing has been rocking.... but i am yearning to ride a wave
Good Evening to all.
I am glad to see that there is a healthy debate, on-going, on the GW issue.
I long ago became aware of the almost futile steps that I, the Individual, can take, to make any difference.
But then it occured to me, that one thing that I could do, is to PLANT TREES. In 15 years, I have planted some 1000 trees.
I am lucky. I live in a place where it is very easy to do that.
I also support a "Do Not Burn" campaign (started by me) in my area.

It has amazed me, how little the Plant-a-Tree thing gets mentioned.
Everyone can do it. Some places easier than others. But trees grow everywhere. Mostly, we complain about forest being destroyed.
Well, tomorrow, or in the summer, or whenever, gather some kids, and go plant a tree. Encourage the children to do it themselves. You will be amazed at their eagerness, and the sense of pride and wellbeing it creates.
My children remember every tree they have planted, and will always remember. "This is my tree, planted for everyone"
It has been shown, that each individual needs to plant 80 trees in their lifetime, to counter their personal footprint.
Try it.......
Great thing, Pottery! I have planted a few here in the sandy soil, as well. Surfmom, the NWFL GOM is rolling. Lotsa surfers out today. Watched them for awhile while "working" at the beach house. Trouper 415, sounds good. I eat Organic (maybe not 95%, but close) as well.
Good to "see" you Sugar. LOL.
Winds here have been strong and constant, N/E for over a week. Seas are rough, but not for surfers. Blown, 8 ft chop. Even the fishing boats are complaining.
Also, the ITCZ is very active. From here to the Sahara is cloud and showers. Not usual for this late in the year. We are still getting rain and cool conditions. Nice.....
12/28 and the ITCZ is active. WOW! We have some storms moving in. Radar shows a big blob in the Gulf moving this way. Rain in the evening is good. I play tennis in the morning so it needs to be gone.
Ahh yes Pottery, when I first came to my present home not single tree -- just scratchy yucky useless Florida grass. I would not fertilize (chemical) and I would not spray pesticides..... but plant we did. We have the Earth Day Elm, Gabriel's Mango Tree, Raphael's Mango tree (each tree planted and nurtured to maturity as the boys grew) We have Rita's Orange tree, Ikebo's Macadamia nut tree and other assorted fruit/food bearing trees that now provide food and SHADE!! Several different varieties of palm trees, several southern oaks etc. The next benefit was that as these trees matured the wild life came to visit. My back door neighbor picked up on what was happening as well as the right side neighbor and the neighbor on my left side across the street. We all kept planting trees, some food for us -- some food for the critters... What grew from this is an incredible mini corridor of a wildlife sanctuary. Once there was a Canopy -- the birds really moved in. The morning singing is so reassuring -- especially when the world is not being kind. We then added the butterfly plants and bingo .... Eden appears.

I can't imagine being the parent of 1000 trees -- but to breath their breath -- heavenly
Good to hear someone is getting waves.... the East coast is rolling, but too many responsibilities here on my home front. Even if I did get waves -- I don't think I'd manage to get out. Seems like that Jet stream isn't dipping low enough to give me anything here. Not complaining though -- the warmer temps are nice -- for me......
Rain -- geeze it seems like forever since we've really had a good soaking. Rain barrels are empty
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening to all.
I am glad to see that there is a healthy debate, on-going, on the GW issue.
I long ago became aware of the almost futile steps that I, the Individual, can take, to make any difference.
But then it occured to me, that one thing that I could do, is to PLANT TREES. In 15 years, I have planted some 1000 trees.
I am lucky. I live in a place where it is very easy to do that.
I also support a "Do Not Burn" campaign (started by me) in my area.

It has amazed me, how little the Plant-a-Tree thing gets mentioned.
Everyone can do it. Some places easier than others. But trees grow everywhere. Mostly, we complain about forest being destroyed.
Well, tomorrow, or in the summer, or whenever, gather some kids, and go plant a tree. Encourage the children to do it themselves. You will be amazed at their eagerness, and the sense of pride and wellbeing it creates.
My children remember every tree they have planted, and will always remember. "This is my tree, planted for everyone"
It has been shown, that each individual needs to plant 80 trees in their lifetime, to counter their personal footprint.
Try it.......


Now we're talking. A lasting, reasonable, and effective effect, too. All upside to this idea...no socialistic control of energy needed.

No reason for the natural cycle crowd to be against this, either.

What about refusing to be a part of wholesale clearing on an acre? Drive through any relatively young builderhood in the US and you will see that EVERY native tree that once existed on a home's lot was removed before construction. Why? Some of them, I can understand, such as towering pines hanging over a house on the Gulf coast, but oaks?

I swore to never move into a builderhood where that has transpired. Having a corner of a larger lot remain wild and wooded is not difficult and will only aid in road noise reduction in the burbs. I have a 1/3 acre of woods on my lot and about 1/2 acre cleared. If I had to guess, I would put the number of trees at somewhere in the 300 range. Thick canopy.

You are correct that this isn't mentioned often. It seems that such a simple strategy gets lost with the name calling and unabashed BS presented by both sides of the AGW issue. Could be that no one can calm down enough to use a little reason and no one is in the habit of listening to anyone else when that someone else has burned what credibility they may have had by employing the above behaviors.
Pottery - I LOVE the formula 80 trees in my life time --- I am going to sing this out to everyone I know -- 80 trees!!!! I have a new mission -- Holy Moley -- I just found my New Year's resolution!! (meaning,,,, I can now keep all my naughty habits) Taking the journey of planting 80 trees..... this makes me VERY HAPPY....hummm I wonder how many I've planted thus far
I will agree w/Pottery -- kids do love to plant trees -- never met one that didn't and I still see how fond my kids are of their personal trees.
For all those in the "freezer" and would like a blast from the 70's....here's a cool one to warm you up..

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if everyone did a little it would be a lot
Yeah, it is all good. And really, 80 trees is easily do-able.
There is a very good incentive scheme here, run by the forestry dept. of the Ministry of the Environment.
They are trying to get people with land (old estates of cocoa, citrus, whatever, to replant with mixed tropical forest. It is working very well.
The incentives include, tax-free equipment (brush cutters etc), tax-back on vehicle, tractor, etc. Payment for every seedling planted. Payment for fire-traces. Very cheap seedlings. Excellent advice. Etc etc.
There are over 500 estates that have participated, and I have visited some of them. The farmers are planting short and medium term crops while the trees are being planted, and tree crops are encouraged. Mango, avocado, etc.

So, things are happening....






surfmom...you might enjoy this one-hit wonder..(I use to be a DJ)..

OMG --Soap Factory!!! and the "one hit due" -- transport back to NYC - The Roxy & Metropolis Roller Skate Club -- slow dance on skates -- that was my life b/4 spouse, kids..... a blast from my past.... **sigh*** I was once wild

I'll let that take me off to sleep land - thanks

G'nite ALL
Flashing through the decades..I wish everyone a very Happy, Healthy and Safe New Year...

We all love you surfmom...good night
post 155. True.
Quoting Skyepony:
Biofuels for the most part is about the worst, unsubstaniable idea (in most instances) I've seen yet as being pro enviroment.


Yep - you really have to watch out for greenwashing.

Greenwash (a portmanteau of green and whitewash) is a term used to describe the perception of consumers that they are being misled by a company regarding the environmental practices of the company or the environmental benefits of a product or service.[1] It is a deceptive use of green PR or green marketing. The term green sheen has similarly been used to describe organizations which attempt to appear that they are adopting practices beneficial to the environment.


Clean coal is another example.
i have noticed that the seasurface temps are very warm around africa wats yall take on this is this another year like 05?
Good Morning -- quiet dawn this morning here in SWFL- feels a bit humid already.November we freeze and December we sweat. At least it's nice for all the tourista's.

If you got a new surfboard or wetsuit for Christmas -- fill the tank and head East 'cause the Gulf is good for Stand-up boards, kayaks, boats and fishermen...... there's nothing for surfing
160. IKE
Quoting Patrap:



Its a lil "wearing and tearing" to say the least IKE...wink,wink Link


Yeah it is......GW***yawn***
GM,to all,if anyone is here,hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas,and hoping for a Happy New Year,looks to be an active week here in the Northeast,but then again,its winter,so what else should we expect.
Goes east looks to still be goes 13 & it's smear amplifing that blob in the central atlantic. Here's the more realistic met 9 view..




"clean coal"~ lol.. Good one MIchael:)
A comment in defense of biofuels: IF we can make cellulosic work we have the potential of using waste products as feedstock for ethanol. Another intriguing idea to me is using animal by-products (e.g turkey guts, fallen livestock, etc) as feedstock for bio-deisel.

The key is to find ways to turn garbage into fuel; not food into fuel.


Green Light New Orleans - helping all of New Orleans with free CFL light bulbs
Global warming is the most significant environmental challenge of cfl compact fluorescent light bulbs are available for free from green light New Orlens the day, and New Orleans is one of the most at risk cities.Wasteful energy consumption is perhaps the largest contributor to Global Warming. One of the easiest effective steps to reduce energy consumption is to change the lighting in your home from old style incandescent bulbs to modern compact fluorescent lighting. If every household in the United States replaced one light bulb with a compact fluorescent light (CFL), it would prevent enough pollution to equal removing 800,000 cars from the road. In addition to the environmental benefits, a CFL uses 75% less energy than an incandescent bulb and lasts 10 times longer, thereby saving money on a homes energy bills. Each CFL will save the user more than $45 over the life of the bulb.
Green Light New Orleans is working to reverse global warming by helping New Orleans low- and middle-income families and individuals make the switch from incandescent bulbs to energy efficient compact fluorescent lights , one house at a time. Our strategy is to actually go to the homes of New Orleans residents and install the CFLs ourselves, so the savings are immediately felt. The installation is done by volunteers from the community and the program is free.

Green Light New Orleans helps thousands of families to lower their energy bills AND gives them an opportunity to actively contribute to global warming solutions.

READ MORE ABOUT IT HERE Link

Calculations for Energy savings based on an average of different sources:

- Energy cost per KWH (March 2006, Entergy New Orleans) $0.118
- one 15w light bulb used 24hrs/day for one year (8760 hrs) saves $46 (394.2 KWH)(source: Entergy New Orleans lighting calculator

- Most 15w light bulb last 10'000 hrs. (savings: $53 = 450 KWH )

Calculations for CO2 emission reduction:

EPA recommends to use the value for the subgrid from the eGRID database. The value for the SERC Mississippi Valley subregion (our region) from the latest eGRID data (for the year 2004) is 1135 lb/MWh (1 MW = 1000 kW), which is equivalent to 0.515 kg CO2/kWh, the most widely used measure.

394 KWH = 447lb CO2

Our main focus is environmental. The savings posted on sections of this web site are on purpose a low estimate. The savings might be higher than stated on the web site. Thank you for your support!

1 CFL = savings of KWH394 = $46 = 447 lb of CO2
Wow, our local Clear Sky Chart is again predicting strong winds, from what I estimate our peak gust will occur around 1:30 am tonight, gusting to what I estimate is 90 km/h (55 mph), so a repeat of yesterday, but at night. Strong wintertime baroclinic zones and temperature gradients...a sign of things to come??
A slightly different spin on the GW discussion....

Whether or not you like the results of the election...one consequence is clear:

There will be a ton of Federal money invested alternative energy over the next few years...

...and this affords a wonderful investment opportunity...

What a treat to know I have the power to stop the conversation dead cold,,,,,
New blog entry and new blog contest!
What a treat to know I have the power to stop the conversation dead cold,,,,,


Some people are just gifted.


Oh I was just out on errands:) 8 years ago I invested in war. Look at this hot off the wire..

'Huge year for natural disasters'

The Sichuan quake was one of several disasters to strike Asia in 2008
The past year has been one of the most devastating ever in terms of natural disasters, one of the world's biggest re-insurance companies has said.

Munich Re said the impact of the disasters was greater than in 2007 in both human and economic terms.

The company suggested climate change was boosting the destructive power of disasters like hurricanes and flooding.

It has called for stricter curbs on emissions to prevent further uncontrollable weather scenarios.

Although there were fewer "loss-producing events" in 2008 than in the previous year, the impact of natural disasters was higher, said Munich Re in its annual assessment.

More than 220,000 people died in events like cyclones, earthquakes and flooding, the most since 2004, the year of the Asian tsunami.

Meanwhile, overall global losses totalled about $200bn (£137bn), with uninsured losses totalling $45bn, about 50% more than in 2007.

"Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes," he said.

Asia was the continent worst hit by natural disasters in 2008, Munich Re reported.


The year saw five major hurricanes in the North Atlantic
Cyclone Nargis in Burma killed an estimated 130,000 people and devastated much of the low-lying Irrawaddy Delta region, while the earthquake which struck China's Sichuan province in May left an estimated 70,000 dead and millions homeless.

The most expensive single event in 2008 was Hurricane Ike, which brought $30bn in losses. It was one of five major hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the year, which saw a total of 16 tropical storms.

In addition, roughly 1,700 tornadoes across the US caused several billion dollars of damage, as did periods of low pressure weather activity in Europe.

Munich Re quoted World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) figures showing that 2008 was the 10th warmest year since reliable records began, meaning that the 10 warmest years on record all occurred in the past 12 years.

"It is now very probable that the progressive warming of the atmosphere is due to the greenhouse gases emitted by human activity," said Prof Peter Hoppe, head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research.

"The logic is clear: when temperatures increase there is more evaporation and the atmosphere has a greater capacity to absorb water vapour, with the result that its energy content is higher.

"The weather machine runs into top gear, bringing more intense severe weather events with corresponding effects in terms of losses."

The company said world leaders must put in place "effective and binding rules on CO2 emissions" to curb climate change and ensure that "future generations do not have to live with weather scenarios that are difficult to control".

"If we delay too long, it will be very costly for future generations," said Mr Jeworrek.

It happens a lot when I walk into a room....

Just because you're paranoid....it doesn't mean they aren't out to get you....
why has the blog been so quiet? even during the severe weather event last weekend


By the way, the models are expecting cyclogenesis to occur near Northeastern Texas about 6 days from now. This system apparently will be a lot more vigorous than the one we saw this weekend.

I'll keep a close eye on it
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
New blog entry and new blog contest!


What is the contest?
afternoon -- are you as HOT in SC as we are in SWFL?
80 degrees temperatures made it wash day.....
Got the pleasure of washing eight horses today -- figure eight cars that move, and have thoughts and opinions about what's happening.

and.... I have a Mango tree that's deciding to bloom..... this is not good
Look A Kidcaster

this a quintessence of myself when I was his age.....nostalgic video


Quoting surfmom:
afternoon -- are you as HOT in SC as we are in SWFL?
80 degrees temperatures made it wash day.....
Got the pleasure of washing eight horses today -- figure eight cars that move, and have thoughts and opinions about what's happening.

and.... I have a Mango tree that's deciding to bloom..... this is not good


Horses are scary.

I saw them for the first time a couple of days ago...they are huge.

Much bigger than what you see on TV
Quoting futuremet:
why has the blog been so quiet?


Well, it isn't hurricane season anymore...
Anyone here know anything about this?--"

By Heather Olinger

Published: December 29, 2008

All afternoon, our newsroom has been flooded with calls, emails and twitter messages, about a loud boom heard in, and around, Mt. Pleasant.

We’ve gotten emails from Dunes West, Rivertowne Country club, Seaside farms, Hamlin Plantation, Brickyard, and even as far as Isle of Palms.

People who heard the sound described it as a loud explosion that started around 1:45pm, and only lasted for about 30 to 45 seconds. And many of you said your homes shook…

According the US Geological Survey, there have been no signs of an earthquake, and the Air Force said their planes weren’t responsible. And we spoke to the Wando Port terminal, and they haven’t experienced anything out of the ordinary.

Listening to the reports, the sound doesn’t seem to be a Seneca gun or a sonic boom. News 2 will continue to investigate… and will update this story on News 2 at 5:00pm."
MichaelSTL

This is one of the reason why I am skeptical about Global warming. Now after I saw that Dr Gray shared the same views as I, I am definitly skeptical about Global Warming.

The atmospheric dynamics are just to complex to make biased assumptions.

I agree the Earth is warming, I just don't see how can we relate that to increase tropical cyclone activity.



Watch both videos...






NOTE: I do not support all of Dr Gray's claim's. I do not believe the earth will get cooler during the next 5-10 years
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Well, it isn't hurricane season anymore...


I guess...


But I still visit this blog more than 200 times a day lol

I'm addicted to it
Future Met -- Yes -- the horses presence in real life is much larger then the TV -- 1000lbs is always to be considered. They're quite intelligent (about a 3 year old)and have long memories...... they are not as forgiving as dogs...but they can love as strongly. The dog is a pack animal and is the predator. The horse is a prey animal and has the herd. Because they are PREY -- their Think is -- It's going to EAT Me! Politics in the pack and herd are more or less the same.
fireflymom --- nothing showing up here -- trying to check the Global Incident Map
Guess we lost presslord
NEW YEARS OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StromWatch
Quoting futuremet:
NOTE: I do not support all of Dr Gray's claim's. I do not believe the earth will get cooler during the next 5-10 years


He says that is supposed to be due to the AMO, but the very definition of the AMO is that the global SST anomaly is first removed to get the residual signal (the impact on global temperatures between extreme phases is only around 0.1*C). The following suggests that the AMO is more of a regional pattern - notice all of the warming in the South Atlantic over the past month while cooling has occurred in the North Atlantic (the AMO reading for November was near zero even though SSTs are still well above normal, and it may be negative this month, also, note the reading for July 2005; the South Atlantic was very cold at that time):



(also, you may notice that there is a lot of warming everywhere, even with a developing La Nina; last year the opposite occurred, perhaps because it was much stronger)



A Christmas wish--more data!!

You got it!

:)
186 - NRAamy --- ROTFLMAO tHAT HAS GOT TO BE THE FUNNIEST POST IN WEEKS -- oh my gosh did that make me laugh --- Huge big smiles
Quoting MichaelSTL:


He says that is supposed to be due to the AMO, but the very definition of the AMO is that the global SST anomaly is first removed to get the residual signal (the impact on global temperatures between extreme phases is only around 0.1*C). The following suggests that the AMO is more of a regional pattern - notice all of the warming in the South Atlantic over the past month while cooling has occurred in the North Atlantic (the AMO reading for November was near zero even though SSTs are still well above normal, and it may be negative this month, also, note the reading for July 2005; the South Atlantic was very cold at that time):



(also, you may notice that there is a lot of warming everywhere, even with a developing La Nina; last year the opposite occurred, perhaps because it was much stronger)


I agree with you

I just believe that everyone is over-hyped about this.
Also, as far as tropical cyclone activity is concerned, I always tell people that it isn't the number of storms but the intensity of the strongest storms that is expected to increase (a rise in SST will directly affect the maximum potential intensity, though only storms in near-perfect conditions will reach their MPI). A recent study did just that and found a correlation between changes in MPI due to warming and intensity (excluding weaker storms because those don't attain or approach their MPI); note that their results also support the heat-engine theory of how tropical cyclones function.
glad I could help, surfmom...

:)
The fact that atmospheric dynamics are severely complicated means we should act more on GW, not less. Besides, you shouldn't wait for certainty to act, for then it will be far too late. We rarely act solely based on certainty in our lives, anyway. Also, whoever's doing it, please stop flagging futuremet's comments. I keep seeing them flagged and it's getting annoying.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The fact that atmospheric dynamics are severely complicated means we should act more on GW, not less. Besides, you shouldn't wait for certainty to act, for then it will be far too late. We rarely act solely based on certainty in our lives, anyway. Also, whoever's doing it, please stop flagging futuremet's comments. I keep seeing them flagged and it's getting annoying.


really?

I do not know why would that person do this, I did not offend anyone
191 --ewww, I'm not even going there -- Let's keep looking to the Future.... and let the past evaporate.....not even a second to waste on a slug.

Future met -- what I am curious about is cold front -- in about 12 days what do you think? Lack of waves is starting to get me depressed. I am damned if I get waves... cause it means it get's cold again (coldfront) and if I get to stay nice and happy hot -- it's as flat as a lake
Quoting futuremet:
MichaelSTL

This is one of the reason why I am skeptical about Global warming. Now after I saw that Dr Gray shared the same views as I, I am definitly skeptical about Global Warming.

The atmospheric dynamics are just to complex to make biased assumptions.

I agree the Earth is warming, I just don't see how can we relate that to increase tropical cyclone activity.



Watch both videos...






NOTE: I do not support all of Dr Gray's claim's. I do not believe the earth will get cooler during the next 5-10 years


Satellite altimetry data indicates that the rate at which the world's oceans are rising has slowed significantly since 2005. Before the decrease, sea level had been rising by more than 3mm/year, which corresponds to an increase of about one foot per century. Since 2005, however, the rate has been closer to 2mm/year.

This right here shows a flaw with GW and what the Pro-GW on the video points out as an ever increasing rate of sea level rise. When you move from theory to reality GW fails. The biggest problem is the funding and the money. Just as the doc points out. You find what you're looking for. If you want to find GW you will. And with my case I will find data to disprove it. Everyone has biases. Everyone.

I also believe when the doc was talking about ocean currents he was talking about decade changes not short term one month and one year events. One thing everyone should know is a wobble can just be a wobble. In geologic time 30 years is just a wobble. Just as the sea level rise slow is short term and may again increase to over 3mm a year or higher. Again I believe the models are seriously flawed in determining sea level rise which is the most pressing issue of GW to lots of people.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The fact that atmospheric dynamics are severely complicated means we should act more on GW, not less. Besides, you shouldn't wait for certainty to act, for then it will be far too late. We rarely act solely based on certainty in our lives, anyway. Also, whoever's doing it, please stop flagging futuremet's comments. I keep seeing them flagged and it's getting annoying.


Just wondering, what setting do you have your filter (at the top of the comments on the right side) set to? I keep it on "Show Bad" so that only true trolls are hidden (mostly; if not, I give the comments a plus until they are no longer hidden); none of futuremet's comments are hidden for me.
Maybe the east coast interests you Surfmom:


COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDANATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
423 PM EST MON DEC 29 2008
The first time I went through the blog I could see futurement's. Now his is hidden until I select show. I have never flagged or ignored anyone yet. Some do give me a good laugh.
Quoting surfmom:
191 --ewww, I'm not even going there -- Let's keep looking to the Future.... and let the past evaporate.....not even a second to waste on a slug.

Future met -- what I am curious about is cold front -- in about 12 days what do you think? Lack of waves is starting to get me depressed. I am damned if I get waves... cause it means it get's cold again (coldfront) and if I get to stay nice and happy hot -- it's as flat as a lake


lol

12 days away is tough surfmom.

The weather will be relatively warm and mild over the next couple of days. The upper level jet is expected to remain far northward with few dips south. Substantial Cyclogenesis along the upper level trough is expected near Northeastern texas about 6-7 days. This system will be flanked by a upper level high to its north, and a subequtorial ridge to its east, Strong jet streak winds will enhance the divergent winds of this system. This is why the models, such as the GFS, are expecting this system to deepen rapidly. A synoptic low with such immense convective potential likely bring severe weather throughout much of the great plains. Now, what does this mean for us?



It means there is a good chance of rain next week, as the front associated with low provides sufficient lifting mechanisms for convective storms. Now subsequent to the front's arrival, how cold will it get? I don't know lol, perhaps highs in the low 70s or lower.

All-in-all, the weather will stay warm and mild this week, and there will be a chance of rain next week. Temperatures will go down subsequent to the front, and will likely stay below average for a while.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Just wondering, what setting do you have your filter (at the top of the comments on the right side) set to? I keep it on "Show Bad" so that only true trolls are hidden (mostly; if not, I give the comments a plus until they are no longer hidden); none of futuremet's comments are hidden for me.

I have it set to "show average". Is it possible for someone's comment to be hidden if nobody flagged it in the first place? Sorry I'm new to this.
RE: CFL Lights

I've replaced a lot of incandescent lamps with them. My only beef is that they don't seem to last as long as advertised. I just replaced the second that failed within 3 months, so the lifespan issue is not a given as far as I am concerned. Will continue to use them in fixtures that are "on" a lot though just for the energy savings. Also, the base on the ones I have tried is too fat to fit some of the fixtures.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I have it set to "show average". Is it possible for someone's comment to be hidden if nobody flagged it in the first place? Sorry I'm new to this.


I have mines set to "show all"

I have never flagged anyone except for trolls who post hateful content.

If set mines to "show average" Whatwhat1's posts are hidden
The night sky in SWFL is extraordinary tonight -- just so beautiful. The planets and the moon are sparkling -- Check it out LowerCal's Blog to know what you're looking out!!
Dinner BBL
Quoting surfmom:
The night sky in SWFL is extraordinary tonight -- just so beautiful. The planets and the moon are sparkling -- Check it out LowerCal's Blog to know what you're looking out!!

Aww...too bad we have a cloudy (and very windy!) sky here right now in S. Ontario. By the way, 2009 is the International Year of Astronomy. Happy New Year!
Oh well, maybe tomorrow - early evening was the best for me -- just the way everything lined up.

Got an early day tomorrow - adios
What happened to StormW?
Quoting futuremet:
What happened to StormW?


I heard he doesn't drop by much during the off season.
The models are forecasting mid-January to be brutally cold for the east posibly like 1985...