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A cautionary tale--the PETM

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on April 29, 2009

One frequently hears comments like, "Earth has had many periods of warmth far exceeding the warmth of today's climate, so we should not be surprised if the current warming of the globe is a natural phenomena". This view is especially prevalent among geologists, who take a very long view of history and are among the most skeptical scientists regarding the reality of human-caused climate change. It is true that Earth's past has had many episodes of natural global warming that we can learn from. But the greatest natural global warming episode of the past 65 million years, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) event of 55 million years ago, presents us with a cautionary tale of how massive releases of greenhouse gases--similar in scale to what humans are now producing--may cause extreme warming of the climate.

Earth's orbital variations--the most common form of natural global warming
The most common cause of natural global warming over time has been changes in Earth's orbit. Three oscillations in Earth's orbit with periods of 26,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years (called Milankovitch cycles) cause ice ages to be triggered when summer sunshine at 65°N reaches a minimum. The reduced sunlight over Canada, Siberia, and Scandinavia allows winter snowfall to persist through the summer, and thus accumulate and build Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. There isn't enough land in the Southern Hemisphere to allow large, land-based ice sheets to build there, so it is the growth and decay of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets that has controlled the timing of ice ages and warm inter-glacial periods over the past three million years. Earth's orbit is currently in a phase where the amount of sunlight falling at 65°N is changing very little. Thus, the primary mechanism for past natural global warming events is not to blame for the current warming. According to the "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the amount of sunlight falling at 65°N is expected to change little over the next 30,000 years, and "it is very unlikely that the Earth would naturally enter into another ice age for at least 30,000 years".

Pumping huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere coincided with extreme climate warming during the PETM
Natural global warming has also occurred in the past due to changes in solar brightness, and natural emissions of natural carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (methane is the primary component of the natural gas we use to heat our homes, is a potent greenhouse gas 20 - 25 more effective at heating the Earth than than CO2, with a lifetime of about 9 years in the atmosphere before reacting with the OH radical to form CO2). I discussed one example of natural global warming in my previous post--volcanoes have emitted enough CO2 over time to account for a large portion of Earth's natural greenhouse effect. However, volcanoes only put about 1 - 3% as much CO2 per year into the atmosphere as human activities do. What, then, does Earth's past tell us about what might happen if we dump 100 times more carbon than volcanoes do into the atmosphere, over a period of a few centuries?

The end of Earth's Paleocene era, 55 million years ago, was a time of great warmth on planet Earth. Subtropical vegetation grew in Greenland and Patagonia, and crocodiles swam off the coast of Greenland. Sea surface temperatures at the North Pole were a toasty 64°F (18°C). Tropical palm forests in northern Wyoming played host to early primates. Despite the fact that the sun put out 0.5% less energy than today (equivalent to a global temperature that would be 0.5°C cooler), there was no polar ice cap or Greenland Ice Sheet. The higher temperatures of that era were probably due to high carbon dioxide levels of 560 - 600 ppm. This is far higher than the 280 ppm seen in the 1800s, and the 383 ppm as of 2009. The continents had a different configuration due to continental drift, and this may have kept the world warmer as well.


Figure 1. Global temperature change (right scale) as inferred from oxygen-18 isotope measurements (left scale) from fossil ocean microorganisms (Zachos et al., 2001). Oxygen-18 levels in these fossils are proportional to the temperatures of the era when the fossils were formed. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (labeled PETM) shows a sharp upward spike in temperatures occurred. This spike is likely to be understated by a factor of 2 - 4 due to coarse sampling and averaging in this data set. For more detail, see the Wikipedia entry for the PETM.

Then, 55 million years ago, the fossil record shows that an extraordinary drop in the ratio of carbon-13 to carbon-12 occurred, indicating that a massive amount of "light" carbon with low levels of the carbon-13 isotope was emitted into the atmosphere in a very short amount of time--just 500 - 20,000 years. The most likely source of carbon-13 depleted carbon would have been methane from ocean sediments or land vegetation. If it was methane, about 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of carbon would have had to be injected into the atmosphere, in order to account for the observed fossil deposits. For comparison, the total amount of carbon in today's atmosphere, primarily as CO2, is a factor of two or three less--about 810 gigatons. The fossil record shows that extreme climatic warming occurred nearly simultaneously with this massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. Global average temperatures rose 9°F (5°C) in a geological instant--1,000 - 10,000 years (Sluijs et al., 2007). Average sea surface temperatures at the North Pole reached 74°F (23°C). The warmth lasted 120,000 - 220,000 years before weathering of silicate rocks was able to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere and return the climate to its former state. This was the largest global warming event since the time of the dinosaurs, 65 million year ago (Moran et al., 2006). The resulting impact on Earth's climate was so severe that a new geological era was born--the Eocene. The warming event has been dubbed the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), since it occurred at the boundary of these two eras. Ocean circulation patterns changed radically during the first 5,000 years of the PETM (Nunes and Norris, 2006), and the deep oceans became 11°F (6°C) warmer, severely depleted in oxygen, and more acidic. A mass extinction of deep ocean microorganisms resulted, though the exact reasons remain unclear. The PETM did not cause mass extinctions on land of plants and animals, but a major turnover in mammalian life occurred at that time. Many of today's major mammalian orders emerged in the wake of the PETM. The new geological era it ushered in, the Eocene, is named for the Greek goddess of the dawn (Eos), since this was the dawn of the era of large mammals.

It is extremely difficult to explain the warmth of the PETM without assuming that the huge amount of "light" carbon pumped into the atmosphere created intense warming due to the greenhouse effect. The controversial question is, how did this carbon get into the atmosphere? Did PETM happen because of the greenhouse effect from all the carbon added to the atmosphere, or did the carbon get released into the atmosphere in response to climatic warming from another cause (and boosting the warming that was already occurring?) The mystery is a difficult one to unravel, since our vision of what happened so long ago is very fuzzy. A recent high-resolution study of ocean sediments laid down in New Jersey during the PETM (Sluijs et al., 2007) argued that about half of the PETM warming occurred 1,000 - 1,500 years before the 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of "light" carbon got injected into the atmosphere. The authors theorize that global warming due to some other cause heated up the deep oceans enough to release methane stored in the form of methane hydrate, a form of methane 'ice' that forms in cold bottom water under great pressures and is widely distributed and plentiful in sediments on the outer edges of continental margins. The methane released was the huge pulse of "light" carbon seen in the fossil record, and this methane warmed the planet even further via the greenhouse effect. The authors argued that the warming that triggered the PETM could have been due to a variation in Earth's orbit, or due to a pulse of greenhouse gases that didn't happen to be enriched in light carbon. A wide variety of other theories abound. Dickens (2004) theorizes that a volcano in the North Atlantic erupted through a huge fossil fuel deposit in overlying ocean sediments, releasing massive amounts of the stored carbon into the atmosphere. Pancost et al. 2006 found evidence that the warming of the PETM significantly increased as carbon stored on land in wetlands was released in the form of methane. Huber (2008) argued that temperatures got so hot during the PETM that a huge die-off of tropical vegetation resulted, creating vast deserts and putting thousands of gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further increasing temperatures.


Figure 2. Photographs of methane hydrate as nodules, veins, and laminae in sediment. Intense warming of the deep oceans during the PETM may have released huge quantities of methane gas from ocean sediments with methane hydrates in them. Image credit: United States Geological Survey.

Computer climate models fail to reproduce the PETM
A big concern about the climate models that we are using to forecast climate for the coming century is that they do a poor job of reproducing the climate of the Eocene, and, in particular, the PETM. These models fail to reproduce the high temperatures observed in the polar regions relative to the tropics during the PETM. However, in the words of climate scientists Daniel Schrag and Richard Alley in a 2004 article in Nature, "It would be a grave mistake to take these lessons from ancient climates as a reason to disregard the projections from climate models." If the observations of the climate in this far-ago era are correct, the reason that the climate models fail to correctly simulate this past climate is because the climate is more sensitive to CO2 than believed. There is a missing "feedback" causing increased warming near the pole that the models are missing. Sluijs et al. (2006) theorize that the models may be missing how hurricanes transport heat to the poles, or how polar stratospheric clouds may act to trap heat over the poles. In short, the failure of the models to correctly simulate the PETM may mean that our current estimates of the amount of global warming likely over the coming century (1.1°C - 6.4°C) are far too low. The other possibility, mentioned by Huber (2008) is that the models are correct, but the temperatures inferred for the tropics from the fossil record are in error. This wouldn't be the first time that measurements were found to be in error and the models vindicated.

Comparison with today
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have pumped about 500 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere. There are about 5,000 gigatons in the planet's coal reserves, while oil and traditional natural gas deposits are hundreds of gigatons each (Rogner, 1997). Given that humans are now adding about 10 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere each year (Global Carbon Project, 2007), we will surpass the 1,000 gigaton mark 50 years from now at current emission rates. This is at the lower end of the 1,000 - 2,000 gigatons of carbon that are estimated to have been added to the atmosphere during the PETM--the most extreme natural global warming event of the past 65 million years. Though our view of events so long ago is very fuzzy, the PETM should serve as a cautionary tale. We cannot rule out the possibility that continuation of our current rates of fossil fuel burning will lead to an extreme climatic warming event like the PETM. In particular, we need to keep a careful eye on the huge reservoirs of methane hydrate stored in marine sediments (500 - 10,000 gigatons of carbon) and stored in permafrost (7.5 - 400 gigatons). Continued warming of the planet could trigger substantial releases of these massive reservoirs of greenhouse gases, leading to a repeat of the PETM event. However, a 2008 study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008) concludes that there is currently no evidence that a sudden catastrophic release of methane stored in ocean sediments or in permafrost will happen over the next century. It should take at least a century for global warming to penetrate the deep oceans and permafrost regions containing these significant reservoirs of methane hydrates. The study concludes, "Catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere appears very unlikely in the near term (e.g., this century)...Although the prospect of a catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic climate change over the next century appears very unlikely based on current knowledge, many of the processes involved are still poorly understood, and developing a better predictive capability requires further work. On a longer time scale, methane release from hydrate reservoir is likely to be a major influence in global warming over the next 1,000 to 100,000 years". So, the bottom line is: don't expect global warming to be able to cause huge releases of methane hydrates in the coming century, such as may have occurred during PETM. But it is wise to ponder that a release of greenhouse gases similar in magnitude to what we are doing now coincided with the most extreme global warming event of the last 65 million years. We should not be surprised if our human greenhouse gas emissions cause a similar massive climate perturbation over the next 1,000 years, leading the dawn of a new geological era--the Anthropocene.

For more information
The best resource I found while researching this was a December 2008 report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), titled, Abrupt Climate Change. Chapter 5, "Potential for Abrupt Changes in Atmospheric Methane" [1.3 Mb] was the relevant chapter.

References
Archer, D., 2007, "Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change", Biogeosciences, 4, 521544,.

Dickens, G.R., 2004, "Hydrocarbon-driven warming", Nature 42, 429, pp513-515, 3 June 2004.

Huber, M., 2008, "A Hotter Greenhouse?", Science 321, no. 5887, pp. 353-354, DOI: 10.1126/science.1161170

Moran, et al., 2006, "The Cenozoic palaeoenvironment of the Arctic Ocean", Nature 441, 601-605 (1 June 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04800.

Nunes, F. and R.D. Norris, 2006, "Abrupt reversal in ocean overturning during the Paleocene/Eocene warm period", Nature 439 (7072): 603. doi:10.1038/nature04386

Pancost, R.D., et al., 2006, "Increased terrestrial methane cycling at the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum", Nature 449, 332-335 (20 September 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06012

Rogner, H.-H, 1997, "An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources", Annu. Rev. Energy Environ., 22, 217-262.

Sluijs, A., et al., 2006, "Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum", Nature 441, 610-613 (1 June 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04668

U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.

Zachos, J. C., U. Rohl, S.A. Schellenberg, A. Sluijs, D.A. Hodell, D.C. Kelly, E. Thomas, M. Nicolo, I. Raffi, L.J. Lourens, H. McCarren, and D. Kroon, 2005, "Rapid Acidification of the Ocean During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum", Science, 308, 1611-1615

Portlight.org relief walk in Destin, FL a big success
Over the weekend, the portlight.org disaster relief charity ran a highly successful relief walk in Destin, FL, to raise money for the disaster relief. The theme of this walk was to raise relief money not only for people, but for pets as well, with 25% of the money raised intended for taking care of pets injured or abandoned during disasters. As detailed in the portlight.org blog, the pet theme was a great way to raise money, and about $5000 was raised. The other relief walks this year raised $1500 in New Orleans and $542 in Kissimmee. Many more walks are planned this year, with the next one being this weekend (May 2) in Summerville, SC. Portlight also helped out with disaster relief operations for the South Carolina fires yesterday.



Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

dr m you can talk about what evere you like to talk about in fac i find dr m climate change blog some in a way of news that keeps us all update in fac we larn some in new about it evere day and time dr m post a climate change blog



so keep going dr m
searcher14

your about to be replaced with empty space
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
searcher14

your about to be replaced with empty space
Been there, done that.
.


The new 3-5 day forecast map from JMA
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


The new 3-5 day forecast map from JMA



cool
Put him on ignore Taz.. everyone else has.
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge


That DAI almost looks like it has rotation.
Quoting searcher14:
Jeff - Do us all a favor -- keep this board for WEATHER topics - not your climate change propaganda


Your lack of respect reveals your ignorance.
'Nuf said.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Put him on ignore Taz.. everyone else has.




now why did i not think of them
man this new firefoxs is fast
Futuremet~ so a little over 12hrs after you realize the greenhouse gas effect is real your going to explain all about our gasious world to me with a hard to read, tiny text, pie chart with no link for source?

For starters lets look at how much CO2 humans have added to the system. We understand this because we know how much natural resources we consume & how much gas is released by each ton. (Yeah lesson brought by Clemson)

On to Water Vapor...
In an article published in Science today (DOI: 10.1126/science.1171264), Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M University and Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales in Australia say there is now enough evidence on the table to say that for every degree of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, water vapour probably adds another degree.

We know as air warms it can hold more water vapor & under most conditions it forms to fill the void when conditions are right & the warmth is there. We are closing in on how much our warming from CO2 & things like a new termite killer recently banned because it showed up on other countries greenhouse effect monitering satellites as such a potenent greenhouse gas~ we are beginning to see these things affects on the rest of the system..bigger parts like water vapor that in turn respond in greater numbers in feedbacks. CO2, methane, the banned termite killer & etc are little keys that control bigger feedbacks that we can control if we choose too. Plus the air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills something like 90,000 in the US alone each year.. What if swine flu killed that many? or a hurricane? I know gas/chem is boring & we mostly can't see it. Ranked way below a heay wave event even..

Your original post also went on about not being able to correctly come up with a global temp average & how all the math was tanted as well... He basically says climate change isn't occuring, it's not gettting warmer. You can probibly find some great sat shots of huge parts of western Antartica falling into the sea over the last month on your own. Where a few years ago we didn't expect ice free summer in the artic til 2050, it's expected by 2013 now. We will be lucky if WW3 isn't over who has drilling rights if we don't start using the keys for something else.
Excellent response Skyepony!
Skyepony

Let us take this battle to the streets (outside the blog)

I'll send you a message later today
Who cares lets focus on hurricanes
Whenever science gets mixed up with religion or politics, the results are likely to be skewed.
Canada says pigs found with new swine flu virus
Alberta, Canada, 03.05.2009 03:20:29
Canadian officials say pigs in the province of Alberta have been infected with the new swine flu virus and are under quarantine. It is the first known reported case of the new virus infecting pigs.
Swine flu regularly causes outbreaks in pigs, and the officials stressed that the pigs do not pose a food safety risk. The officials told a press conference Saturday that the pigs were thought to be infected by a Canadian farm worker who recently visited Mexico and got sick after returning to Canada. Officials said the traveler has recovered and that the pigs are "well on their way to recovery." They did not say how many pigs were affected.

RSOE EDIS Code: BH-20090503-21526-CAN
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge


That DAI almost looks like it has rotation.
I was thinking the same thing.
Happy Sunday. Have a nice day everyone.
FYI here's a handy world map for the H1N1 Virus spread.Link
Hi everyone,
Does anyone know what happened to Conchy Girl?I don't see here posting anymore .
Nice ghost storm

GFS 12Z

Quoting futuremet:
Nice ghost storm

GFS 12Z



Seems the GFS model has been getting back to developing yet another ghost storm in the SW Caribbean the past few runs. Not going to take it seriously since its in the long range and we've already seen the GFS do this a week ago. Just something fun to watch for now.
Skyepony

I did not say that the earth is not warming, but rather, anthropogenic global warming is a vicious fraud.

The sun is the primary cause of global warming

First of all, greenhouse effect is not a bad thing. Without it, our planet would not support life as we know it, as the average temperature would be too cold to support liquid water.

Water vapor is the single most potent greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, trapping more heat than carbon dioxide and methane put together. Estimates of the impact of water vapor on global warming vary widely from a minimum of 60% of all greenhouse effect to 98% of all greenhouse effect, but even at the minimum of 60%, that leaves 40% of greenhouse effect to be shared by all other chemicals combined, including carbon dioxide and methane (which has ten times the greenhouse capacity pound for pound as carbon dioxide). Now then, looking at Carbon Dioxide, we find that only .117% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is directly attributable to human technology such as automobiles. .117% is a rather small amount. If we were to measure out .117% of a football field, it comes out to 4.212 inches, barely long enough to get off the touchdown line.

So, if humans ceased all technological activity, we would still see 99.883% of the carbon dioxide remain in the atmosphere, assuming all other factors remain stable (which is, of course, silly.)

Over the last few years, there have been very careful studies in Antarctica which clearly show global temperatures rising together with atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global warmers have sent me several of these research papers with the usual "Ah HA!" type comment, but on reading the papers it is clear that the global warmers stopped at the abstract, because what these recent studies show is that Carbon Dioxide levels increased AFTER the rise in global temperature. Let me re-state that. Studies of Antarctic ice show that the Earth would get warmer, and THEN Carbon Dioxide levels would increase. And there is nothing at all mysterious about this. Carbon dioxide is a very unique chemical in that it is more effectively dissolved in liquids in lower temperatures. Normally, air will hold more water when warm, sugar will dissolve in water more quickly when warm, but carbon dioxide will escape from solution as the temperature rises, which is why your beer will soak your shirt if it is too warm when you open it.

So, as the sun warms the Earth (as recorded in the ice) carbon dioxide dissolved in the oceans and lakes bubbles into the sky like too-warm soda pop fizzing over the top of the glass, and as the Antarctic ice reveals, winds up in the atmosphere.

Now, this is not to say that I think we should waste our planet's resources. Quite the contrary, I think we need to be very careful of what we have, because we are not likely to get a replacement planet any time soon. But the global warming "hype" is exactly that, hype to sell products and policies. If you want to do something about the damage to the planet caused by oil, STOP THE WARS BEING FOUGHT OVER IT!
1024. Ossqss
It was interesting to find that GFS makes a 2 part run, high res to 180 and low res the rest of the way. Sorry to bore some, but I found it interesting.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA. This mathematical model is run four times a day and produces forecasts up to 16 days in advance, but with decreasing spatial and temporal resolution over time (it is widely accepted that beyond 7 days the forecast is little better than guesswork).

The model is run in two parts: the first part has a higher resolution and goes out to 180 hours (7 days) in the future, the second part runs from 180 to 384 hours (16 days) at a lower resolution. The resolution of the model varies in each part of the model: horizontally, it divides the surface of the earth into 35 or 70 kilometre grid squares; vertically, it divides the atmosphere into 64 layers and temporally, it produces a forecast for every 3rd hour for the first 180 hours, after that they are produced for every 12th hour.

I have not found any upgrades to is since 2007.

I have my first Blog entry of the 2009 season its about this,look SW of nicaragua!!!:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Seems the GFS model has been getting back to developing yet another ghost storm in the SW Caribbean the past few runs. Not going to take it seriously since its in the long range and we've already seen the GFS do this a week ago. Just something fun to watch for now.
but yet again this could be the one
1027. Ossqss
Quoting stillwaiting:
I have my first Blog entry of the 2009 season its about this,look SW of nicaragua!!!:


Is that not the same one that has been hanging around there for a few days?
Please folks, there's enough blogs and discussion forums around on global warming/climate change/catch-phrase-of-the-day. I come here to learn about weather not be lectured to about what you believe vs what I believe.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but yet again this could be the one


Only time will tell. If the GFS continues to suggest tropical development consistently with each run over the next five days, then I'll give it some consideration. But until then, nothing to worry about. Just gives those who love to hype something to feast on. And I admittedly used to jump on models, but as I've progressed through my weather career, I've learned to remain objective and realistic.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 5N110W 6N105W 4N115W 07N125W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM
96W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH 60 NM
RADIUS OF 9N131W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 19N132W WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO 12N140W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS S OF 25N W OF THE TROUGH. A
40-50 KT WIND MAX IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N135W TO
23N128W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AREA WITHIN
300 NM SE OF THE WIND MAX. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS E OF THE TROUGH NEAR 19N119N...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA INTO NW
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ACROSS MEXICO TO 20N117W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
TROUGH.

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 10N104W...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CIRCULATION S TO THE EQUATOR AT 105W. SW FLOW E OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N86W. DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N129W WITH RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE HIGH IS BLOCKING A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF 30N...HOWEVER NW SWELLS TO 10 FT
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. ALSO THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE 20 KT NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE ITCZ
NEAR 7N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW SEMICIRCLE.
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 10N124W TO 3N125W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.

$$
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 04N01W
TO 03N10W TO THE EQUATOR AT 23W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 01N TO 05N E OF 05W AND ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 06S TO 01S W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW AND N
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0318
UTC SHOWS SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO 25 KT. THIS STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETREAT TO THE
E SOMEWHAT...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS
OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS TRANSPORTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 76W TO 78W. THE 2312
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE ATLC PASSAGES. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM BERMUDA THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND TROUGHING BOTH TO THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. THE
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE THE TROUGHING
TO THE EAST IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES DUE TO THE TROUGH. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN
ON THE GUADALOUPE RADAR...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BAND TO THE SE
OF BARBADOS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC. THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SHIFTING THE
MOISTURE POOL AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
WESTWARD WITH IT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES FROM BERMUDA JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS INTO FLORIDA...CORRESPONDING WITH THE SAME POSITION
AS THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE SURFACE. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IN THIS
REGION HAS BROUGHT FAIR WEATHER HERE. THERE IS NO NOTABLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON BAHAMIAN OR U.S. RADARS IN THIS REGION AT THE
MOMENT. THE 0136 ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
ATLC CAN BE FOUND ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 62W TO 52W FROM 22N TO 27N...WITH EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GREATEST HERE IN THE REGION BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TURKS AND
CAICOS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH IT.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG THE COAST OF
BRAZIL FROM 06S TO 01S W OF 30W...COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE ITCZ NEAR THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 01N TO 05N E OF
05W. THIS AREA LIES UNDER A WEAK ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO LIFT THE MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE 2352 AND 2112 ASCAT PASSES SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL E ATLC NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 15N AND
25N E OF 35W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS BEEN TIGHTENED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DUE TO A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED N OF THE AREA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N37W TO
23N43W. THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
HERE...ALONG WITH THE WINDS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
Afternoon all.
1033. DDR
Good afternoon all,from Trinidad. It started yesterday with an isolated thunderstorm,now its raining cats and dogs,close to 3 inches aready and still coming.Quiet an early start thanks to alot of heat and a little moisture,still pretty weird for early may.
1034. pottery
Hi DDR.
An inch and a half here in Central. Very welcomed.
Afternoon all,

Checking in from SELA for the season, just wanted to stop in and say hello to everyone, and thanks to Dr. Masters. Looks like I'm about to get part of that DAI too, to boot.
1024. Ossqss

You can track changes to GFS and other models on this webpage.
1038. Drakoen
GFS forecasting systems in la-la land...
1039. hahaguy
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS forecasting systems in la-la land...


What's new ..LOL
Drakster sir, where in la la land it will hit?
1041. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:
Drakster sir, where in la la land it will hit?


Your house only.
1042. Drakoen
Quoting hahaguy:


What's new ..LOL


It keeps trying to draw up these storms from the EPAC's ITCZ. Does not have a clue.
1043. hahaguy
Quoting Drakoen:


It keeps trying to draw up these storms from the EPAC's ITCZ. Does not have a clue.


I guess it's practicing.
1044. Drakoen
I'd probably pay more attention to the ECMWF when it is forecasting something.
Quoting Drakoen:


Your house only.


lol
1047. Ossqss
Create your own Animation
1046
lol

Don't be mad if his meteorological jargon is more advanced than yours...



1050. Drakoen
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I've read your post for years now, and you lack any forecasting skills as you depend or put all your faith in computer models. You will not last 1 day without computer models but heck, I guess you get the job done by throwing around some fancy words or stolen information to make yourself look smart. This wonderful blog deserves better.


Taken from Lixion Avila: "I highly value the numerical computer forecast models."

Forecasting depends on the computer model guidance. I don't have time to waste searching for information. I know how to read computer models, knowing their strength and weakness, and their climatological actions. Also I know how to apply the terminology to it.
1051. hahaguy
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I've read your post for years now, and you lack any forecasting skills as you depend or put all your faith in computer models. You will not last 1 day without computer models but heck, I guess you get the job done by throwing around some fancy words or stolen information to make yourself look smart. This wonderful blog deserves better.


This is why the ignore button is here.
1052. Drakoen
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
In addition, you were wrong about development from the GFS this week.


When did I say that I believed what the GFS was forecasting? I was asked last week if I bought the GFS forecast and I said "No." because of the lack of computer model guidance. I did qualify the situation by providing reasons why development was possible as well as why development was not possible.
As the hurricane season nears more information is becoming available and we get a better idea of what to expect. One thing that is changing and may eventually have some implications on the expected season is the NAO is expected to be positive as predicted during June and July but now is predicted to shift negative during the months of August and September. While it was suspected to do so, not to the extent to cause below normal MSLP across parts the MDR. This pattern is becoming more similar to 2004.
1054. Ossqss
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
In addition, you were wrong about development from the GFS this week.


So, your point in dissin someone is that you can provide a better informed view than they? If so, lets have your take without the flake.
I was quite unimpressed with the ECMWF last year--kept generating Typhoon Tip type storms off the SE USA coast and bringing them in.
Quoting Drakoen:


Taken from Lixion Avila: "I highly value the numerical computer forecast models."

Forecasting depends on the computer model guidance. I don't have time to waste searching for information. I know how to read computer models, knowing their strength and weakness, and their climatological actions. Also I know how to apply the terminology to it.


And what has a punk that most have on ignore for good reasons done for us? Nothing useful. Momma must be proud.

I have seen GFS plop in a cat3, erase it for 12 hours, and bring it back 1000 miles away... in February. Worm hole fortran is what I call it (all of them are written in fortran). But, GFS has some track skill 3 days out once a system is initialized. All about knowing strengths and weaknesses. For GFS, cyclogenesis is not a strength.
Understanding meteorological jargon is necessitous to make an efficacious forecast. It is essential forecaster must capable of effectively decipher Numerical model data, and current conditions. What is more, the meteorological (every scientific field) uses certain vocabulary words to describe various weather fundamentals. Thus, it is momentous for a forecaster to know these words and efficiently apply them. For example, a typical chemist must be familiar with the words stoichiometry, titration, base, acid, molarity, neutralization, phenolphthalein...etc.

why say "a tropical cyclone is forming in the SW Caribbean"

When you can say "Cyclogenesis is occuring in the SW Caribbean"

It just saves more time--a very precious item for a forecaster.
1060. hahaguy
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Like Drakoen, I'm not a meteorologist.
Like Drakoen, I'm not trained in this field.
Unlike Drakoen, I'm humble with it and not try to force people to think I'm one.


Then shut your mouth.
Quoting atmoaggie:
For GFS, cyclogenesis is not a strength.

Actually, it is a strength. The GFS does cyclogenesis constantly, even when it is the middle of winter.
Drak:I think searcher14 has morphed into a couple other handles and needs a IP ban.You NEVER said you expected anything to form due to climatology and lack of other model support!!!!!,this person has ZERO clue who there messn with(all the regulars repect your opinion 100%,I'm sure of it)...flag'em and report'em......
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, it is a strength. The GFS does cyclogenesis constantly, even when it is the middle of winter.


Right. I suppose I should have said "accurate cyclogenesis". ;-)
On a serious note, I really, really hope that the rest of this season does not carry on like this. (on the blog, that is)

There is a lot of intelligent opinions out there (and some non-intelligent ones, too), and quite a bit of experience posting on this blog. Instead of debating your e-peen, and saying who is or is not a meteorologist... why not take everyone's view on the current tropical weather, and understand that forecasting weather (especially tropical cyclones) is far from an exact science. There will be differing opinions, and there will be about 11 billion ways to look at a single model run, or a single satellite photo. There is no need to get your panties in a bunch, and get all kinds of bent out of shape.

[edited for clarity]
1065. Ossqss
Quoting futuremet:
Understanding meteorological jargon is necessitous to make an efficacious forecast. It is essential forecaster must capable of effectively decipher Numerical model data, and current conditions. What is more, the meteorological (every scientific field) uses certain vocabulary words to describe various weather fundamentals. Thus, it is momentous for a forecaster to know these words and efficiently apply them. For example, a typical chemist must be familiar with the words stoichiometry, titration, base, acid, molarity, neutralization, phenolphthalein...etc.



Dang Futuremet, I just put away my TyranoThesaurusRex in the attic and now I need it again.

Fight nice all and remember, if you don't someone else will.
I've remove my comments and apologize not to Drakoen but the blog. Don't want to cause conflicts.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Like Drakoen, I'm not a meteorologist.
Like Drakoen, I'm not trained in this field.
Unlike Drakoen, I'm humble with it and not try to force people to think I'm one.


Hes never tried to force anyone into thinking hes a meteorologist.
My Ignore list has 8 slots and is already half full. Will I get more slots if I fill the 8 or will I have to decide which trolls are the most annoying?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
My Ignore list has 8 slots and is already half full. Will I get more slots if I fill the 8 or will I have to decide which trolls are the most annoying?


You get more. Alot more.....
1070. hahaguy
Quoting KEHCharleston:
My Ignore list has 8 slots and is already half full. Will I get more slots if I fill the 8 or will I have to decide which trolls are the most annoying?

You get more once you fill them up
I don't want to upset anyone or get ban but I was expressing my opinion.
Right now I just checked and I have 71 people on ignore. Most of them the come and go trolls who get banned from the site but I've been to lazy to delete from my ignore.
I rarely ignore people (you never know when they might have something intelligent to say), but I've already filled up my first 8 slots in a single season (well, I got the 8th today).
Excellent - Then carry on folks!
: )
1075. hahaguy
Quoting jeffs713:
I rarely ignore people (you never know when they might have something intelligent to say), but I've already filled up my first 8 slots in a single season (well, I got the 8th today).


I got 7 and not even june 1st lol.
1076. Drakoen
Quoting hahaguy:


I got 7 and not even june 1st lol.


I have 40 lol
1077. hahaguy
LOL.. I'm sure to have a lot more in the next few months.
SEVERE TROLL STATEMENT
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLL LAND
123 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

A TROLL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED

TAKE COVER NOW CLICK ON IGNORE BUTTON AND HIT UPDATE TO HAVE A SAFE PLACE FROM THIS ADVANCING TROLL
Do any of the rest of you wonder how many Ignore Lists you have made? Dubious honor, to be sure. I know that I have made at least one.
Oh.. I'm probably going to regret asking this... but what are a few good satellite and model sites that I can access during the season? (I prefer to go directly to the sites, since I will be accessing some of these from work, and who knows what they may block... .edu sites and government sites are rarely blocked)

I ask as I plan on posting a blog somewhat frequently for the Houston, TX area in relation to the tropics this year.
1081. hahaguy
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Do any of the rest of you wonder how many Ignore Lists you have made? Dubious honor, to be sure.


Over the past three years too many lol.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
SEVERE TROLL STATEMENT
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLLLAND
123 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

A TROLL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED

TAKE COVER NOW CLICK ON IGNORE BUTTON AND HIT UPDATE TO HAVE A SAFE PLACE FROM THIS ADVANCING TROLL

Very nice, Keeper. :)
The best way to ignore a person is by reading their comments and dismissing them without even replying. Another way is to not spend so much time on this blog particularly, because, you may have the user on your ignore list but someone that doesn't quotes them and you end up seeing everything they post, which defeats the whole purpose.

Dr. Masters blog is alright but I tend to spend less time here and focus more on my blog because I know I will have less confusion there and more order.
1084. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:
Understanding meteorological jargon is necessitous to make an efficacious forecast. It is essential forecaster must capable of effectively decipher Numerical model data, and current conditions. What is more, the meteorological (every scientific field) uses certain vocabulary words to describe various weather fundamentals. Thus, it is momentous for a forecaster to know these words and efficiently apply them. For example, a typical chemist must be familiar with the words stoichiometry, titration, base, acid, molarity, neutralization, phenolphthalein...etc.

why say "a tropical cyclone is forming in the SW Caribbean"

When you can say "Cyclogenesis is occuring in the SW Caribbean"

It just saves more time--a very precious item for a forecaster.


That's true, but you need to use understandable terms sometimes. Not everyone knows what a theta-e ridge, a lapse rate, an isodrosotherm, geostrophic flow, etc is.
yeah 456 i use docs blog as a gathering point and by seeing the trolls act out here gives me the chance to block them from my blog
1086. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


That's true, but you need to use understandable terms sometimes. Not everyone knows what a theta-e ridge, an isodrosotherm, geostrophic flow, etc is.


Absolutely correct.

PeptoBizmo does work on that last item however.

I only have 4 on the list

I usually ignore due to profanity
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Do any of the rest of you wonder how many Ignore Lists you have made? Dubious honor, to be sure. I know that I have made at least one.


I get along with most everyone so probably not many.
Quoting jeffs713:
Oh.. I'm probably going to regret asking this... but what are a few good satellite and model sites that I can access during the season? (I prefer to go directly to the sites, since I will be accessing some of these from work, and who knows what they may block... .edu sites and government sites are rarely blocked)

I ask as I plan on posting a blog somewhat frequently for the Houston, TX area in relation to the tropics this year.
You will probably have most of these. I have been bookmarking sites as well. A couple of edu/gov sites



PSU E wall - lots of model info

FNMOC WXMAP (Navy) - Imagery

NOAA - Monitoring Atlantic Hurricane Potential
1090. Brallan
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
SEVERE TROLL STATEMENT
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLL LAND
123 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

A TROLL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED

TAKE COVER NOW CLICK ON IGNORE BUTTON AND HIT UPDATE TO HAVE A SAFE PLACE FROM THIS ADVANCING TROLL


ROFLMAO...

Soon we may even have an Category 5 Troll Strom :P
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Do any of the rest of you wonder how many Ignore Lists you have made? Dubious honor, to be sure. I know that I have made at least one.


Don't have one. Don't need one. It is very easy to ignore someone when your focus and passionate about the matter on the table, that is, the tropics.
TROLL STATEMENT
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLL LAND
239 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

TROLL WARNING ENDED

TROLL WATCH IN EFFECT

TROLLS MAY POP UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS THESE EVENTS OCCUR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WITH FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS

&&
Good Afternoon Everyone. Does anyone have any predictions on the upcoming season. I'll take my first shot at it by predicting 14-7-4.
Quoting Weather456:
Don't have one. Don't need one. It is very easy to ignore someone when your focus and passionate about the matter on the table, that is, the tropics.
Indeed Weather, you are right. Unfortunately, I sometimes find myself getting sucked in. (Probably a sign that I do spend too much time on this board).
I have learned so much here on Dr. Master's blog, and many of the other WU blogs. I appreciate those of you who share your knowledge and your enthusiasm for the subject of tropical weather.
Subject: Category Two Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (980 hPa) located at 15.0N 126.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.4N 130.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.9N 134.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 22.3N 139.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (CAT 1)
3:00 AM JST May 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category One Cyclone In The South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (996 hPa) located at 10.1N 111.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.5N 112.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 12.8N 114.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 13.8N 117.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
FKPQ30 RJTD 031800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090503/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: KUJIRA
NR: 5
PSN: N1500 E12625
MOV: ENE 08KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/0000Z N1525 E12710
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/0600Z N1540 E12805
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/1200Z N1605 E12905
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT

FCST PSN +24HR: 04/1800Z N1625 E13005
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090504/0000Z =

-------------------------------------

FKPQ31 RJTD 031800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090503/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: CHAN-HOM
NR: 3
PSN: N1005 E11140
MOV: SLW
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/0000Z N1025 E11150
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/0600Z N1040 E11200
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/1200Z N1105 E11225
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 04/1800Z N1130 E11250
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090504/0000Z =
futuremet~ You may not have said climate change isn't happening in your own words but you quoted words that did & was using the argument that the world isn't warming as part of his proof this is a fraud. You don't sound like your believing the words you quoted as proof anymore...

You have to source in a decent debate & once again you have not. My point that even though CO2 is a sliver, a small amount more can raise the temp as well as other greenhouse gasses such as water vapor that inturn raise temps higher. Such is the nature of Chemistry & feedback loops. College chem for science majors is enlightning if you've never had it. Atleast we agree we should stop burning natural resources, starting with the dirtier ones.

Grow your own:)
Tell me Skyepony, is Earth the only planet in our solar system that is warming?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Afternoon Everyone. Does anyone have any predictions on the upcoming season. I'll take my first shot at it by predicting 14-7-4.
Hey, petrol. Good to see u in the blog. I'm waiting to see what the doc will say as we get closer to the season, but I don't think we'll be as active as last year. OTOH, I don't think we'll fall into the average range either.
Wow, the server just ate my last post.

Well, I just wanted to remind people to

1. use the [-] and [!] buttons rather than getting into arguments with obvious "haters"

2. remember to keep the posting of non-weather pics to a minimum once the season gets going. Remember some people got banned for excessive fish-picture-posting last July or August? Some of the newer people might not realize that some activities that are OK during the off season for the ATL/EPAC will get them ejected once the season starts.
Keeper-


You heading up the Troll Prediction Center this season? ;) Like those warnings.lol.
I find this year's huge departure from recent warming in the Arctic amazing in that it could show us just how insignificant the CO2 chemistry really is. Admittedly, correlation is not causation and it is only one season, but the CO2 is still there without the lowered sea ice extent. We might actually have a higher than "normal" ice area (considering that we have no way to know if 1979-2000 is anything like a normal). Something far more important than CO2 is obviously flexing it's muscles.



Wonder if we will see that ice-free Arctic anytime soon...surrounded by palm trees full of polar bears harvesting coconuts.
Good afternoon everyone...Nice to see that almost all the regulars are back. How are ya Baha?

Also..I will try to finally post my Hurricane Season forecast later tonight.
CO2 is the source of life, it is just as important as oxygen
1106. beell

SPC Storm Reports

63 High wind reports and one confirmed fatality from this on-going Derecho event.
Quoting futuremet:
CO2 is the source of life, it is just as important as oxygen


And at it's current concentration, the limiting factor in some natural chemistry processes.
1108. Ossqss
1098 - Respectfully Skyepony, the posts and information like 632 are part of the problem !

The intent of the letter was to tell us that warming is not natural.

It imploded itself with the last quote.

"The biggest shortcoming in climate models so far seems to be how to deal with clouds and this is why we are concentrating on them," he said.

To say the Sun's effect on our planet is <14% of the warming and then shoot yourself in the foot with a statement like that is not smart.

I did find this an interesting quote considering our current solar senario.

One model suggests that the magnetic activity associated with sunspots modulates the flux of cosmic rays that hits the atmosphere, and that this cosmic ray flux is significant in the nucleation events that promote low level cloud formation. If so, then decreased cosmic ray flux implies fewer clouds and therefore higher surface temperature.

I consider that natural and logical.

The only real fact is we have no adequete sample of empirical data to drive to any conclusion. Nor, and more importantly, any sufficient integration or capable modeling of the existing data sets to engage all possible causes effectively. Certainly not simultaneously as that which occurs in nature.

Hence why things remain theories.

Just my take as I sit on the GW fence.

Link
Quoting Drakoen:


I have 40 lol




i have 212
Starting to sound and read so much like the blogs last hurricane season. All I have to say is thank goodness for the "Ignore User" function as that has made it so much easier to read through the blogs.
yup i love it soo march
wow i be came post 1,111 for the 1st time heh heh heh
Quoting beell:

SPC Storm Reports

63 High wind reports and one confirmed fatality from this on-going Derecho event.


Report you links showed "thousands of trees down" in Perry county Alabama.
Like 456 said..if your mature enough you should not have to use the ignore user function....I have no one on my list. I just ignore them and overlook their comments.
Quoting CaneAddict:
Like 456 said..if your mature enough you should not have to use the ignore user function....I have no one on my list. I just ignore them and overlook their comments.


You make a good point.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You make a good point.


Yeahh just a point I had to make..How are you man?
1118. Ossqss
I offer an open appology if any of my posts have offended anyone in any way. This is all very new to me, blogging. It is my understanding to follow the topic, but that does not last forever.

I understand during season things should be different.

Do only certain individuals get to provide their take ?

Again, I would ask - tell me if I am out of line, I certainly don't want to be an impediment to anyone. I am an admitted rookie :)
Nice update 456.
1120. beell
Quoting tornadofan:


Report you links showed "thousands of trees down" in Perry county Alabama.


Is that more than eleventy?
Quoting CaneAddict:


Yeahh just a point I had to make..How are you man?


Been doing pretty well. About to end yet another semester at college. Just one more semester until I earn my AA. Also been starting work on making big changes to my CCHS Weather Center website and getting prepared for hurricane season. Can't wait to work with you during the coming hurricane season and hope all has been well with you.
No...everybody, regardless of how knowledgeable they are on the subject, everyone is entitled to express their own opinion.
Same here...I am ready, maybe we can get some sort of preseason development this month something to get us warmed-up.
I myself plan on updating my website and doing some re-designing to it...I am hoping to come out with my forecast for the hurricane season some time tonight.
I am becoming increasingly confident it's a tropical wave...Let's see what the coming days prove.
1127. hahaguy
From what I'm seeing it might be a tropical wave.
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge

It sure looks like the weather has is out for RTLSNK
Quoting Ossqss:
I offer an open appology if any of my posts have offended anyone in any way. This is all very new to me, blogging. It is my understanding to follow the topic, but that does not last forever.

I understand during season things should be different.

Do only certain individuals get to provide their take ?

Again, I would ask - tell me if I am out of line, I certainly don't want to be an impediment to anyone. I am an admitted rookie :)
Look at the community standards policy and the rules of the road. They tend to be more "in effect" during the busy part of the season than they are now. The thing about the OT posting is that it can cause u to be banned, which is no fun when a storm is on the move. Other than that I don't suppose u've been any more offensive than the next person . . . lol
1130. Ossqss
Have they actually called that a Derecho event formally ?
1131. bappit
Bad news about the derecho.

While on the subject of natural disasters (hmmm, actually I think that is always the subject) here's a little variety about a tsunami in New York City in 300 BC. Of course, it wasn't New York City then. I found the associated comments on the SlashDot blog an interesting parallel of ones made on various topics on here. SlashDot has different ways of treating general smartass-ness than Wunderground. Anyway, the article referenced mentions a New Foundland tsunami that killed some people, too.
Quoting CaneAddict:
Like 456 said..if your mature enough you should not have to use the ignore user function....I have no one on my list. I just ignore them and overlook their comments.
During the season last year, I had a hard time keeping up with the blog, and I was not using ignore. I think it will be much easier, cleaner reading with ignore. Will probably only use it for the obvious trolls. Differing opinions do not bother me, but sometimes there are folks who purposely clog the blog. The ignore feature allows me to use SHOW ALL, without the blog becoming frustratingly tedious to read.

ADDED :1118. Ossqss - Not talking about the type of comments you post. Talking about someone who makes a hateful remark and repeats it every other post.
From the Storm Prediction Center:

WITH A WARM/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...WELL-ORGANIZED
FAST MOVING DERECHO /WITH A LONG LIVED HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE/
SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AL INTO WESTERN/NORTH GA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SEE LATEST WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THE MOST
CONTEMPORARY SHORT TERM DETAILS. ASIDE FROM WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD
REMAIN WITH LEADING QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE BOW ECHO AND A MODIFYING/NORTHWARD LIFTING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL AL INTO
WEST CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA. BUT...RELATIVELY MODEST 0-1 KM SRH PER
BIRMINGHAM WSR-88D VWP/18Z SPECIAL OBSERVED RAOB...AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT PER 18Z BMX RAOB...AND AN OBSERVED TREND OF A GRADUALLY DRYING
BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
Quoting Ossqss:
Have they actually called that a Derecho event formally ?


Ossgss... Side note... go see post 204 in my blog :)
1135. beell
Quoting Ossqss:
Have they actually called that a Derecho event formally ?


Forward speed down to around 40 knots at present.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...AL...GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...

VALID 031556Z - 031700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232
CONTINUES.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS MUCH OF AL
AND GA...INCLUDING A SMALL PORTION OF SERN MS...

VERY WELL ORGANIZED DERECHO CONTINUES ITS EWD MOVEMENT ACROSS WW232
AT ROUGHLY 60KT
. AT THIS RATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APEX OF THE
BOW WILL BE IN WRN AL BY 20Z. WITH A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY DRAPED
FROM WRN AL INTO ECNTRL MS THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
1136. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
Dont know if it's a tropical wave yet.


Looks at the satellite animation, there is very little evidence of cyclonic turning turning. I think the upper level high is enhancing the area within the ITCZ.
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks at the satellite animation, there is very little evidence of cyclonic turning turning. I think the upper level high is enhancing the area within the ITCZ.


Not all waves have cyclonic turning. The first wave of 2008 was identify by the use of an inverted V pattern within the cloud patterns. Mid-level cyclonic turning is a feature of well define, high amplitude tropical waves. This feature maynot be a wave but not becuz of the lack of cyclonic turning. It's not present in all waves.
1138. bappit
I hereby formally call it a derecho, The May 3rd Texas to Alabama Derecho Event. (I'm not sure that text in an SPC message qualifies as a formal declaration.)

This seems to be derecho season for the Gulf States. I remember a derecho starting near Lake Livingston, Texas May 17, 1986.

Derecho info
1139. beell
I'm not sure that text in an SPC message qualifies as a formal declaration

I am!
Wow it is a small one in witdh but judging it with the super storms one might be unfair.
Quoting bappit:
I hereby formally call it a derecho, The May 3rd Texas to Alabama Derecho Event. (I'm not sure that text in an SPC message qualifies as a formal declaration.)

This seems to be derecho season for the Gulf States. I remember a derecho starting near Lake Livingston, Texas May 17, 1986.

Derecho info


thanks for posting that, was wondering what a derecho is........and TWC will be talking about it in a few minutes
1142. bappit
The following comment from the SPC page about derechos is worth emphasizing.

Another reason that derechos can be very risky to people involved in outdoor activities is their very rapid movement. Typically, derecho producing bow echo systems move at a speed of 50 mph or greater and a few have been clocked at 70 mph! For someone involved in outdoor activities the rapid movement means that the darkening of the sky and other visual clues that would alert them to the approaching danger occur extremely fast. Therefore, the visual clues of the approaching derecho gust front typically don't offer much time to take protective action.

I was out playing golf when the Lake Livingston derecho went through. Visibility was poor. People were caught by surprise. One foursome putting ona green reported a small tornado over their heads. There were a lot of comments made in the press afterwards that people should have taken cover. In fact, they did not have time, and there was no warning.
1143. beell
Not too small, not too slow if you live in AL.

A single well-defined bow echo traveling at 60 knots that is a couple of hundred miles long would be a Derecho-Yes?

1144. Ossqss
The traditional criteria that distinguish a derecho from a severe thunderstorm are sustained winds of 58 mph/92 km/h during the storm as opposed to gusts, high and/or rapidly increasing forward speed, and geographic extent (typically 250 nautical miles (460 km) in length. [1]) In addition, they have a distinctive appearance on radar (bow echo); several unique features, such as the rear inflow notch and bookend vortex, and usually manifest two or more downbursts.

From Wiki

1145. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


Not all waves have cyclonic turning. The first wave of 2008 was identify by the use of an inverted V pattern within the cloud patterns. Mid-level cyclonic turning is a feature of well define, high amplitude tropical waves. This feature maynot be a wave but not becuz of the lack of cyclonic turning. It's not present in all waves.


I know that, but it is within the ITCZ which subsequently makes it more difficult to gain a wave-like signature. Cyclonic turning is what the NHC look for with these areas of convection off the African coast. I don't see much suggestive indentation in the 700mb isohypse or a wind shift.
1146. bappit
Thanks for the radar image beell. Interesting how the northern end of the squall line seems to move faster than the rest. My guess is that some of the worst winds might be in that area.
Quoting Drakoen:


I know that, but it is within the ITCZ which subsequently makes it more difficult to gain a wave-like signature. Cyclonic turning is what the NHC look for with these areas of convection off the African coast. I don't see much suggestive indentation in the 700mb isohypse or a wind shift.


African easterly waves can be tracked even before they reach the coast or Atlantic and that is where the NHC normally designate them.

African easterly waves normally reach their peak amplitiude around this region and thus are difficult to track east thereof. So cyclonic turning is not one of the uself signs to use to track a tropical prior to emergence.

Last, tropical waves are found in the ITCZ also.
1148. bappit
Saw an interesting post on LiveScience about AGW.

Global Warming's Big Image Problem

Quoting:

"When someone thinks of global warming, they think of a politicized, polarized argument," says Robert M. Perkowitz, founder and president of EcoAmerica. "When you say 'global warming,' a certain group of Americans think that's a code word for progressive liberals, gay marriage and other such issues."

EcoAmerica conducted polls and focus groups to arrive at this.


I'm not sure what the EcoAmerica group is, but the cynical assumption will be that it itself is a bunch of "progressive liberals [for] gay marriage and other such issues." Even if that is true, I suspect that the results of their polling and focus groups is pretty much on the mark.

LULZ
1149. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


African easterly waves can be tracked even before they reach the coast or Atlantic and that is where the NHC normally designate them.

African easterly waves normally reach their peak amplitiude around this region and thus are difficult to track east thereof. So cyclonic turning is not one of the uself signs to use to track a tropical prior to emergence.

Last, tropical waves are found in the ITCZ also.


I already know all of that. They use the Hovmoller Diagram. They need enough evidence that suggests a tropical wave. Never said they couldn't be found in the ITCZ. The signature does not have as great a definition. Most of the area of convection is already over water. The NHC discussion and SFC map links to area to the ITCZ.

I value cyclonic turning and relative vorticity analysis for determining tropical waves.
CCH the graphic solution is on my blog.
Quoting Drakoen:


I already know all of that. They use the Hovmoller Diagram. They need enough evidence that suggests a tropical wave. Never said they couldn't be found in the ITCZ. The signature does not have as great a definition. Most of the area of convection is already over water. The NHC discussion and SFC map links to area to the ITCZ.

I value cyclonic turning and relative vorticity analysis for determining tropical waves.


ok
1152. beell
Oh, for sure, bappit-my pleasure.

And there are several rear-inflow notches with this system. One well defined notch moving right over Montgomery. A couple more to the south. Indicated by the absence of reflectivity in a v shape just behind the line. The apex of the v pointing east. Where in this case, the mid-level winds out of the west are caught in the downdraft and smack into the ground. Inflow notches are common to many bow echos-not just Derechos.

I would admit that the duration of any strong, sustained winds may have been shorter than some Derecho events.
Futuremet~ I don't know. & I doubt you can prove beyond a doubt that if they were it would still justify burning oil.

Atmos~ I would agree if we didn't just have a La Niña winter with very little solar activity & we were more near average for more than a few months.

Oss~ I see you on the fence with a microscope looking at finite details... Looking at actual conditons have been a huge sway for me (well school put these ideas in my head) & the other ways as humans we have changed the temp.. We know we've added 5º to the Artic from the black soot from our industries & cars that gets swept up in the atmosphere & deposited with the snow. Also we know we could change the temp in our favor if the farmers planted certain types of crops..like certain types of corn has more reflective leaves. Some of these things are in the beginning stages of being impleminted.. the on going argument with misinformation abound about how the gasses we spew affect this has slowed it all down. People stand on the human can't warm with CO2 & not a thought is payed to the same natural resources being burned are making the snow up their darker & more prone to melt.
1154. beell
Ok, my last post on this-promise!

from the SPC Storm Reports:
20:01Z UNK MAPLESVILLE COUNTY
CHILTON AL
32.79 86.88
CATTLE AND DEER LIFTED OFF GROUND,
JEMISON THORSBY AREA. ALONG WITH 1 INCH HAIL. (BMX)
derechoBlog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
fwiw, SPC first dubbed this event "derecho" at 9:54 CDT MCD 0686 ...AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS...NWRN AL...SERN TX... NEEDLESS TO SAY THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF BOW APEX ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW.

My feeble attempt at a graphic early today. Well, early for me on a Sunday PDT.

Outflow boundary from earlier storms/leading edge of derecho. (I think. LOL)
0503o9 1430z Image NRL NexSat. My painted lines: pink=leading edge, blue=outflow boundary.


Please correct me if I'm wrong!
:)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
===========================
Tropical Storm "DANTE" has intensified and slightly accelerated as it continues to move away from the country.

At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Dante (Kujira) located at 15.0ºN 126.8ºE or 180 290 kms northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots (105 km/h) with gusts of 70 knots (135 km/h). The storm is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

All Public Storm Warning Signal now lowered.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.
1158. beell
Aw, heck, bf-I promised!
(looks good!) Cali weather kinda slow lol?
On an only marginally related topic,

the Bahamas National Trust is a conservation organization that works to preserve Bahamian natural and historical resources. I think they do better with the natural than the historical, but that's my opinion. I assume there are similar bodies throughout the Caribbean. . .
1160. Ossqss
1053, That is correct. It is my job, as a resident on this planet, to ensure what I believe is indeed fact. The mircoscope proides a great tool to make that happen. I assume nothing, until I exhaust the information base available and then some. I do know one thing, the truth lies between opposing views. That I cannot dispute.

Happy Sunday, fishin time.

Anything coming for Florida yet? :p)
1162. Ossqss
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Anything coming for Florida yet? :p)



Hot - dark - hot - dark - hot then maybe rain in a week or so. Lets hope for the best :)



3 schools closed in Tampa for a week on the flu thing.
1163. hahaguy
Quoting Ossqss:



Hot - dark - hot - dark - hot then maybe rain in a week or so. Lets hope for the best :)



3 schools closed in Tampa for a week on the flu thing.


I find it funny no one is talking about the flu anymore. It was all mostly hype.
3 Schools closing in Tampa because of Swine.
1165. Ossqss
Quoting hahaguy:


I find it funny no one is talking about the flu anymore. It was all mostly hype.


Lets hope so and it does not morph. A base gene is missing as compared to the early 1900's. Don't let your guard down just yet. Be safe.
1166. Ossqss
Freedom, Wilson, and another I cannot remember.
1167. hahaguy
Quoting Ossqss:


Lets hope so and it does not morph. A base gene is missing as compared to the early 1900's. Don't let your guard down just yet. Be safe.


I'm not letting my guard down , I'm just saying the news hyped it up so much.
1168. Ossqss
Quoting hahaguy:


I'm not letting my guard down , I'm just saying the news hyped it up so much.


Indeed Haha, probably for all the right reasons :)
It this thing Mutates as expected then, big problems could be looming.
1170. hahaguy
Quoting TampaSpin:
It this thing Mutates as expected then, big problems could be looming.

That would be scary. =O
The problem is not what the current Virus has to offer but, what its mutated birth of a new baby may bring.
1172. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:
It this thing Mutates as expected then, big problems could be looming.


After the Mexican incident, things appear to be slacking off, aside from the spread as expected in the high population areas in Asia. The real concern, albeit not immeadiate, is next flu season. Warm weather helps prevent the spread vs. cold, when flu season occurs. Being informed and aware have helped tremedously over what would have happened 10 years ago. Let alone the gov preparedness from lessons learned.
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-05-03 14:55:11

Redoubt's 2009 eruption continues and appears to be gaining intensity. Seismic activity has increased markedly in the last 24 hours, showing stronger volcanic tremor and more frequent rockfall events. Minor emissions of ash have also been visible in webcam views during this time period. Steam emissions in particular have become more vigorous over the last 30 minutes, with a steam plume now reaching approximately 18,000 feet above sea level.
Atmos~ I would agree if we didn't just have a La Niña winter with very little solar activity & we were more near average for more than a few months.

Exactly the point; I hear ya on the natural variations. Whatever contribution CO2 has was clearly and easily overpowered by them. But for the CO2 warming contribution to be so thoroughly bested, leads to a tough question: How much of the correlated "warming signal" being trumpeted as causation was simply the converse? (We did have a long multidecadal period of +PDO, thus more El Ninos, and more solar activity)

No one honest can sit here and say that they have a real quantifiable answer to that question. We had a phase alignment on positive signal generators for quite a while. Now we have negative signal phases. We are learning more about climate forcings all the time and I find this last 6 months to be educational. I just hope everyone is paying attention.
Quoting Ossqss:
Freedom, Wilson, and another I cannot remember.


Liberty Middle School
1176. Ossqss
Quoting atmoaggie:
Atmos~ I would agree if we didn't just have a La Niña winter with very little solar activity & we were more near average for more than a few months.

Exactly the point; I hear ya on the natural variations. Whatever contribution CO2 has was clearly and easily overpowered by them. But for the CO2 warming contribution to be so thoroughly bested, leads to a tough question: How much of the correlated "warming signal" being trumpeted as causation was simply the converse? (We did have a long multidecadal period of +PDO, thus more El Ninos, and more solar activity)

No one honest can sit here and say that they have a real quantifiable answer to that question. We had a phase alignment on positive signal generators for quite a while. Now we have negative signal phases. We are learning more about climate forcings all the time and I find this last 6 months to be educational. I just hope everyone is paying attention.


Hence the fence along with some other dissonance. If it were easy, anyone could do it. Just my take.
Hi Ninja had the bike out!
Quoting hahaguy:


I'm not letting my guard down , I'm just saying the news hyped it up so much.
I don't know if I'd call this hyping. This is one of those situations where widespread knowledge of the flu and its possible effects could prevent widespread flu and its certain effects.

I think I prefer "The sky is falling!" even though it might only be three-inch diameter hail instead of the whole sky.
Hey Tampa!! No, I sold the bike a while back. Hopefully will be getting another one soon!
Also hope whatever flu etc. is under control before we get a serious N hemisphere strike. A bad hurricane or typhoon in a flu-contaminated area could spell double disaster, or even triple if one considers the difficulties of getting relief to the flu stricken area afterwards.
1181. hahaguy
Quoting BahaHurican:
Also hope whatever flu etc. is under control before we get a serious N hemisphere strike. A bad hurricane or typhoon in a flu-contaminated area could spell double disaster, or even triple if one considers the difficulties of getting relief to the flu stricken area afterwards.


Ya, that would be a major problem.
Quoting Littleninjagrl:
Hey Tampa!! No, I sold the bike a while back. Hopefully will be getting another one soon!


Can you believe Josh got a job......OMG!...LOL
Quoting hahaguy:


Ya, that would be a major problem.


Think about Shelters as a breeding ground....WOW!
1184. Drakoen
CFS is forecasting for an El nino:Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


Can you believe Josh got a job......OMG!...LOL
No. . . . really???

LOL

Quoting Drakoen:
CFS is forecasting for an El nino:Link
Last month they were suggesting no appreciable shift until OND. This is the first I've seen of a shift near the height of the season.

Should be interesting if it pans out, since that might do a lot to shorten the season, especially for strong storms.
Quoting Drakoen:
CFS is forecasting for an El nino:Link


Thats a weak or Moderate El Nino?
1188. Drakoen
The Glosea ensemble forecast is update. The 500mb anomaly for the July-September period is analogous to 2004 with higher than normal heights over the Canadian meritmes favoring less troughiness off the east coast.
Glosea forecast
Photobucket
I have some good news for once for us Florida folks.
Space Shuttle Atlantis is going up in 8 days, next tuesday at 2:01 PM.
1190. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thats a weak or Moderate El Nino?


Moderate-Strong El Nino.
Tampa.....you have WU mail.
1192. Drakoen
Glosea ensemble rainfall forecast July-September:
Photobucket
1193. hahaguy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have some good news for once for us Florida folks.
Space Shuttle Atlantis is going up in 8 days, next tuesday at 2:01 PM.


Very good news.
That precip. anomaly map has some interesting implications re. storm track. . .
1195. Drakoen
Quoting BahaHurican:
That precip. anomaly map has some interesting implications re. storm track. . .


Yes it does. Glad you noticed.
...just went for a walk on the beach with What'sherface....my God it's a beautiful evening here....
1198. Patrap
Last week Destin,this week Jazz Fest.
Im tired...smiling,..but worn out.
Can someone PLEASE tell me if rain is ever going to hit here in the next week or so? My goodness - I am trying to sell our house and our lawn is almost CRISPY and I think we have some kind of weird bug thing that is eating what is left. Three weeks ago I was complaining that we had so much rain that we couldn't do laundry since our drain field was soaked...now NOTHING.

I am almost ready for Faye to come back.
Drakoen that forecast map looks very ripe for a FL/Gulf Coast hit.
Looks more like a Georgia hit to me. But realistically, let's call it south carolina.
Quoting Patrap:
Last week Destin,this week Jazz Fest.
Im tired...smiling,..but worn out.


Hey Pat. We caught the Blue Angels' portion of the air show yesterday. Cool! Actually, I somehow timed our departure such that we watched to end of their show from the car (big sunroof) and saw them going in to land from the middle of the river on the Belle Chasse ferry.

4-year-old couldn't decide what was cooler, being out in the middle of the Mississippi river on the ferry, or watching the planes from there.

On top of that, he spent 2 hours playing on Monkey Hill earlier that day. (we were tired, but smiling, too!)
Quoting melwerle:
Can someone PLEASE tell me if rain is ever going to hit here in the next week or so? My goodness - I am trying to sell our house and our lawn is almost CRISPY and I think we have some kind of weird bug thing that is eating what is left. Three weeks ago I was complaining that we had so much rain that we couldn't do laundry since our drain field was soaked...now NOTHING.

I am almost ready for Faye to come back.


Maybe some.....tomorrow.


Better chance on Tuesday.
Quoting hurricane23:
Drakoen that forecast map looks very ripe for a FL/Gulf Coast hit.
Even GA.
01W Kujira..sun is up..


Quoting Skyepony:
01W Kujira..sun is up..


Glad that is heading AWAY from land. . .
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA (CAT 2)
9:00 AM JST May 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Two Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kujira (975 hPa) located at 15.7N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.1N 131.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.6N 135.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.0N 141.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Baha heading towards Iwo To though..
Quoting Drakoen:
The Glosea ensemble forecast is update. The 500mb anomaly for the July-September period is analogous to 2004 with higher than normal heights over the Canadian meritmes favoring less troughiness off the east coast.
Glosea forecast
Photobucket


Ohh Boy!
That means im under the gun...
1210. Well for now yes but analogies are meant to be broken :P... I hope.
Going...going....gone.

1213. hahaguy
Quoting Vortex95:
1210. Well for now yes but analogies are meant to be broken :P... I hope.


You and me both =)
1214. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
Drakoen that forecast map looks very ripe for a FL/Gulf Coast hit.


We'll see how everything pans out.
1215. hahaguy
Quoting Drakoen:


We'll see how everything pans out.

Going to be interesting.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (CAT 1)
9:00 AM JST May 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category One Cyclone In The South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (996 hPa) located at 10.7N 112.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.3N 113.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 13.8N 115.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 14.1N 117.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
If the forecast for a moderate-strong El Nino pans out..the season may be squashed!
1218. Drakoen
Here's another thing to consider from 2004. The PWAT values were anomalously lower near the African coast. Higher along the eastern seaboard. Obviously it was higher for Florida.

Hey everyone.
I had a question.
This up coming week the "Noaa Hurricane Hunter team" is doing their atlantic coast awareness tour. Does anyone know if it is a yearly thing? I went last year or the year before in rhode island and i had read that they alternate between the atlantic and the gulf, but havent been able to find anything on it this year, does anyone know where they'll be next year?
1220. Drakoen
What is dissimilar, currently is the pressure forecast. The set up of a 500mb anticyclone over the southern Plains results in increased pressure. MSLP was lower over the SE for 2004.
FKPQ30 RJTD 040000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090504/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: KUJIRA
NR: 6
PSN: N1540 E12725
MOV: NE 11KT
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/0600Z N1610 E12820
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 04/1200Z N1635 E12925
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/1800Z N1650 E13025
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 05/0000Z N1705 E13125
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090504/0600Z =
Good point Drak.
Quoting CaneAddict:
If the forecast for a moderate-strong El Nino pans out..the season may be squashed!


I highly doubt we will see a Moderate/Strong El Nino during the Climax Season.
The majority Statistical and Dynamical Models certainly agree with my statement.
Photobucket
1224. Drakoen
I think a weak El Nino is a real possibility but i don't see it being a season-squasher.
Quoting Drakoen:
I think a weak El Nino is a real possibility but i don't see it being a season-squasher.


I just don't see that happeneing either.
Quoting Drakoen:
I think a weak El Nino is a real possibility but i don't see it being a season-squasher.


2004 had a weak El Nino.
1228. hahaguy
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2004 had a weak El Nino.


Yep.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2004 had a weak El Nino.

So are you saying there is a posiblity of action similiar to 2004? Sure hope not!
1230. Drakoen
2004 crossed the +.5 threshold in July. I like this graph as it shows the Nino 3.4 region conditions over the past 4-5 years.

Quoting CaneAddict:
Like 456 said..if your mature enough you should not have to use the ignore user function....I have no one on my list. I just ignore them and overlook their comments.


as well do I,Zero people on ignore and I've been on for 2yrs....If I did I'd miss To much funny stuff!!!!
I have zero bloggers on ignore...I just wish the hide function would carryover when you refresh the page. Sometimes I am just not in the mood to read some blogger's posts.
Quoting Weather456:
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Do any of the rest of you wonder how many Ignore Lists you have made? Dubious honor, to be sure. I know that I have made at least one.


Don't have one. Don't need one. It is very easy to ignore someone when your focus and passionate about the matter on the table, that is, the tropics.



Definately words of wisdom to all on this blog, I feel exactly the same way!!!,very well put 456.....
1234. Drakoen
I like the ignore list. There are some bloggers' post I don't want to see ever.
Without even looking at an MJO graph, and just looking at the map on the Tropical Weather page on WU, I have a feeling I know where the MJO is...
1236. Drakoen
The MJO is in our basin believe it or not lol.
1237. JRRP
1238. Drakoen
MJO forecast to be in our basin for the next 2 weeks or so, then returning back again at the official start of the season.
1239. hahaguy
Nice cluster of storms.
1240. Drakoen
Our upper level winds are unfavorable for development and are forecasted to remain unfavorable for the next 7 days.

Not march logger...
starting may 10/11 I'll be able to view the ISS twice a day!!!!!, in the early morning and evening.......though it only happens for a few days.....
1242. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:
starting may 10/11 I'll be able to view twice a day!!!!!, in the early morning and evening.......though it only happens for a few days.....


what view?
Here is the SOI index,now dropping after reaching 10 last week.

img
1244. JRRP
i don´t like the ignore list.... i just don´t read the things in that i am not interested
Appears time for the early morning crew to get ready to take over!
1246. hahaguy
Shift change.
Quoting Drakoen:


what view?


fixed it,the ISS!!
Hades....have the coffee ready? I can't believe you stay up so long! Talk about dedicated!!!
1249. cdo
El Nino over hyped just like La Nina is....
Quoting searcher14:
JEFF ** MUST READ ** NEW INSTRUCTIONS HAVE JUST COME IN ***


Environmental issues consistently rate near the bottom of public worry, according to many public opinion polls. A Pew Research Center poll released in January found global warming last among 20 voter concerns; it trailed issues like addressing moral decline and decreasing the influence of lobbyists. %u201CWe know why it%u2019s lowest,%u201D said Mr. Perkowitz, a marketer of outdoor clothing and home furnishings before he started ecoAmerica, whose activities are financed by corporations, foundations and individuals. %u201CWhen someone thinks of global warming, they think of a politicized, polarized argument. When you say %u2018global warming,%u2019 a certain group of Americans think that%u2019s a code word for progressive liberals, gay marriage and other such issues.%u201D

The answer, Mr. Perkowitz said in his presentation at the briefing, is to reframe the issue using different language. %u201CEnergy efficiency%u201D makes people think of shivering in the dark. Instead, it is more effective to speak of %u201Csaving money for a more prosperous future.%u201D In fact, the group%u2019s surveys and focus groups found, it is time to drop the term %u201Cthe environment%u201D and talk about %u201Cthe air we breathe, the water our children drink.%u201D

%u201CAnother key finding: remember to speak in TALKING POINTS aspirational language about shared American ideals, like freedom, prosperity, independence and self-sufficiency while avoiding jargon and details about policy, science, economics or technology,%u201D said the e-mail account of the group%u2019s study.

Mr. Perkowitz and allies in the environmental movement have been briefing officials in Congress and the administration in the hope of using the findings to change the terms of the debate now under way in Washington.


SEARCHER14**MUST READ**:When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
will be an interesting season nonetheless
cool pic.

Quoting futuremet:
will be an interesting season nonetheless


I Concur!
The SST's look similar to last year but The Set-Up upstairs looks familiar to 2004.Im thinking we will see an active season.
TS: what a difference between where we live and that picture......not many beaches there,lol...
1257. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:
TS: what a difference between where we live and that picture......not many beaches there,lol...


Hard to find beaches in the mountains.
Quoting Drakoen:
I think a weak El Nino is a real possibility but i don't see it being a season-squasher.


The Pacific is warming steadily. Could see 12-14 NS and 6-8 hurricanes but anymore than that would surprise me. The key is early season development. If we have several frontal lows develop and become NS then the season is likely to be less active than last. If we see tropical waves develop out of the deep tropics then we could have some issues.
Quoting Drakoen:


Hard to find beaches in the mountains.


Actually Drak,that volcano is not that far from the coast....bro!!!
1260. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:


Actually Drak,that volcano is not that far from the coast....bro!!!


Who doesn't love to swim in -2 degree Celsius waters...
Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
As are most of the volcano's in alaska(located along the coast)...so?????
1263. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:
As are most of the volcano's in alaska(located along the coast)...so?????


I'll put my my emphasis back on in the mountains.
Quoting Drakoen:


Who doesn't love to swim in -2 degree Celsius waters...



hmmmm......polar bears and eskimo's....lol
1265. Drakoen
Quoting stillwaiting:



hmmmm......polar bears and eskimo's....lol


Great way to go into hypothermic shock...
you should put your emphisis in a map!!!..lol
Quoting Drakoen:


Hard to find beaches in the mountains.


Its not hard to find that in Hati...
Photobucket
1268. Drakoen
.
Though weak warm anomalies in the Pacific may develop the effects will lag months behind. 2004 had a pattern similar to the 2009 upcoming season with strong pressures early in the season transition to weak pressures during the peak months. The ENSO pattern may also be similar. I do not think this year's cape verde season will be as strong as last year with activity concentrated west of 50W due to below average rainfall across Sahel among other factors. There is a strong correlation between western Sahel rainfall patterns and cape verde hurricanes.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Remove your comment quick, remember this is Drakoen blog's and you cannot post without his permission and how dare post that information. Remember Drakoen is the only one permitted to do so.




WHAT???
If you consider the cape verde-locust connection, then expect more cape verdes than tail of a front born storms this year. Last year the locust swarms were bad. With spring well under way the locust this year are expected to be worse.
Quoting Weather456:
Though weak warm anomalies in the Pacific may develop the effects will lag months behind. 2004 had a pattern similar to the 2009 upcoming season with strong pressures early in the season transition to weak pressures during the peak months. The ENSO pattern may also be similar. I do not think this year's cape verde season will be as strong as last year with activity concentrated west of 50W due to below average rainfall across Sahel among other factors. There is a strong correlation between western Sahel rainfall patterns and cape verde hurricanes.


Yeah, I agree with you. Last season had much more impressive waves up to this point than we have so far this year. Also, last year had above average SST's off of Africa and this year they are somewhat below average. I do expect this year to be active but because of those factors, we will likely not have a Bertha in early July like last year.

The main development region, however, looks to have above average SST's (compared to last year's average), so I could expect tropical waves could take a while to develop and then blow up near the antilles.

In case people have forgotten, 2005 had only one or two cape verde storms and it was the most active season in record (and the most destructive).
i smell other troll too add to my Ignore
1273. weatherblog 12:39 AM AST on May 04, 2009

Yea....In 2008 all factors were clear-cut and point to an active cape verde season but not so much the case this year. I don't see this as much of an hindrance to overall activity as in almost every hurricane season, tropical cyclogenesis west of 50W accounts for a majority of a season overall activity.

1276. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
1273. weatherblog 12:39 AM AST on May 04, 2009

Yea....In 2008 all factors were clear-cut and point to an active cape verde season but not so much the case this year. I don't see this as much of an hindrance to overall activity as in almost every hurricane season, tropical cyclogenesis west of 50W accounts for a majority of a season overall activity.


so.... could be dangerous for the antilles
1277. peejodo
Quoting TampaSpin:
Whats wrong with this picture? There is a major void of quakes along the Pacific ConUS and Canada Coastline all the way to Alaska. Something big will be coming in my opinion.



I know I'm 2days late getting to you about your observation. But that nasty old word "work" had me busy. (sure not complaining with the economy the way it is)
My question is, Does anyone know where to look to compare this lack of activity to 1964 when Anchorage, as well as other areas in Alaska, were blasted with their earthquake?
I was working in CA at that time and if memory serves me right, the newscasters of the day were mentioning a "calm period" for earthquake activity.
142
TCNA21 RJTD 040600
CCAA 04060 47644 KUJIRA(0901) 01164 11285 12244 245// 90612=
CHAN-HOM(0902) 03109 11124 13144 230// 90304=

6:00 AM UTC May 4
TY KUJIRA (0901)
16.4N 128.5E
Dvorak Intensity T4.5

TS CHAN-HOM (0902)
10.9N 112.4E
Dvorak Intensity T3.0

---
Well looks like a typhoon watch/warning will issued for Japan's southeastern islands.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TYPHOON KUJIRA (CAT 3)
15:00 PM JST May 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Kujira (970 hPa) located at 16.4N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving east-northeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.9N 132.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 19.2N 136.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.2N 141.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
FKPQ30 RJTD 040600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090504/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: KUJIRA
NR: 7
PSN: N1625 E12830
MOV: ENE 12KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 04/1200Z N1640 E12930
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/1800Z N1650 E13030
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 05/0000Z N1650 E13135
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 05/0600Z N1655 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090504/1200Z =
was in


hittin it


hittin it!




Lets get us a storm! lol


(hope not)

The pattern shows a mai hurricane.
Going to be a very busy saison.
That WU map is highly glitchy.
1284. RTLSNK
65*F in Macon Georgia this morning
94% humidity, partly cloudy sky
Chance of precipitation this morning - 100%

Almost 8am and 76.1F, 93% humidity.

I see the rain on radar at the Midland GA-SC border. Will this make it to coast? WU gives us a 30% chance of precipitation.

Weather has been great for visitors to Charleston.
Sounds of the City:

(clop, clop, clop) 'Behind us are the S.O.B.'s. People who live South of Broad. We are now where the S.N.O.B.'s live, Slightly North of Broad' (clop, clop, clop)

(woman on a cell phone) 'The kids are going to do a ghost tour. We're going drinking.'

(couple with camera) 'Umpph.... !@#$%, You would think they could have fixed these !@#$% sidewalks. Same !@#$% ones Scarlett and Rhett walked on. Oh...look, Sarah .... Umpph... !@#$%'
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Statements have been issued from the following NWS Service Weather Stations:
NEW ORLEANS LA
MOBILE AL
JACKSON MS
1288. vortfix
Good morning!

It's been a sloppy commute this morning for a lot of folks along the upper Gulf coast.
Several tornado warnings and thunderstorms in the rainy mix as well:



Photobucket


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
510 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-041700-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM
CDT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI FOR THE POTENTIAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE HIGH WINDS WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SOME
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.



1289. vortfix
The severe weather threat continues.....



Photobucket


Current Convective Watches



This article is almost amusing--you mean we are supposed to worry about global warming based on events you conjecture happened 55 million years ago? Where and what is the evidence that proves the assertions you make about what occurred 55 million years ago? I love your use of the word that the warming then was "probably" due to higher carbon dioxide levels--that is a hole in your argument that is big enough to drive the proverbial truck through. Please enlighten us as to what you base your statement upon that such warming was "probably" caused by high carbon dioxide levels? Is it because the temperatures were higher (or in other words, circular reasoning)?. If you expect us to drastically alter our lives and standard of living because of global warming today, you will need more than the bald assertion that global warming 55 million years ago was "probably" caused by increased CO2. If the case is so strong, you should have powerful evidence of what transpired 55 million years ago--but you obviously don't. You'd rather engage in speculation and claims about "probable" causes of what may have transpired eons ago. If you can't do better than this, you should keep this drivel to yourself. We know from the relatively recent past (13th century AD) that the climate was much warmer than it is today. We also know that this warming was not caused by human production of CO2. So pray tell, what caused this warming?--please enlighten us with your speculation on this period.
Good morning

I posted about this feature just last week and today it is still there and looking much better.

Shear has dropped to a low 10 to 20 knots in this area and the 850 mb vort signature is still present. Quikscat missed it this morning.

Something to watch over the next couple of days

New Blog
1294. Lancia
There are so many comments that my appreciation for the PETM discussion may get lost in the shuffle. Anyway, it can be taken in context of the Triad arguments.