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A Brazilian tropical disturbance to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on March 05, 2010

An area of disturbed weather has formed off the coast of Brazil, near 18S 38W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian disturbance.

Several global models, such as the ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have been developing this system in recent runs. Phase space diagrams form Florida State University confirm that this storm is expected to primarily be a warm-cored system, meaning it will probably be classifiable as a subtropical or tropical storm if it attains surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system is capable of bringing heavy rains to the Brazilian coast while it is in its formative stages over the next few days, but I doubt that these rains would be heavy enough to cause flooding concerns. By Monday, the storm should be headed southwards or south-eastwards out to sea, and it appears unlikely that Brazil would see tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph from this system. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday.


Figure 2. The MODIS instrument on-board NASA's Aqua satellite captured this true-color image of a rare tropical cyclone in the South Atlantic ocean just off the coast of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost states. The National Hurricane Center in Miami estimated the storm was a full-fledged, Category I hurricane with central winds between 75 mph and 80 mph (121 kph to 129 kph), making it the first hurricane in the South Atlantic in recorded history.

Comparisons to Cyclone Catarina
Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms). Today's disturbance is located much closer to the Equator than where Catarina formed. Thus, it has warmer waters to work with, and potentially less wind shear.

I'll probably do a quick update this weekend.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

StormW FundRaiser for Hurricane Conference

StormW FundRaiser Forum

WoW!!!! You all did it. Just checked Google checkout and Paypal and we now have
donations of $520 less fees its just over $500!!!
Thank you all very much!!! I will get the $350 paid for Registration fees and give StormW the remaining amount for his travel expenses and needs. He is truly a tremendous asset with his knowledge!
Again Thank you all!
Thank You Dr.........Just when you think it's safe to go outside, another natural event surprise somewhere in the world......
Comparisons to Cyclone Catarina
Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength.


YOu all remember these 2004 storms...we might be facing a simialar pattern coming!
Hurricane Alex
Tropical Storm Bonnie
Hurricane Charley
Hurricane Danielle
Tropical Storm Earl
Hurricane Frances
Hurricane Gaston*
Tropical Storm Hermine
Hurricane Ivan
Tropical Depression Ten
Hurricane Jeanne
Hurricane Karl
Hurricane Lisa
Tropical Storm Matthew
Subtropical Storm Nicole
Tropical Storm Otto
Into the Fray goes 2010,,,the Atlantic already has a Lil sumthing to "offer" up .

May the Hurracan' God's spare the Basin,this go round.
ITS 2004 ALL OVER AGAIN i BET THAT Colin
AND Igor WILL AFFECT US BAD TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4. TampaSpin 10:30 AM EST on March 05, 2010
YOu all remember these 2004 storms...we might be facing a simialar pattern coming!


Interesting correlation to see what unfolds but lets hope not in is this difficult economic year.... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
4. TampaSpin 10:30 AM EST on March 05, 2010
YOu all remember these 2004 storms...we might be facing a simialar pattern coming!


Interesting correlation to see what unfolds but lets hope not in is this difficult economic year.... :)


Ya i went through Charley......i certainly don't want to see another Charley!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
4. TampaSpin 10:30 AM EST on March 05, 2010
YOu all remember these 2004 storms...we might be facing a simialar pattern coming!


Interesting correlation to see what unfolds but lets hope not in is this difficult economic year.... :)


We're guaranteed a year like 2004. I just moved back to Florida. I think Charley hung a right just because I moved to Cape Coral and had been told "We haven't had a major hurricane here since 1960something".
I hope the Indian Gods keep protecting Tampa! Not wishing anything on anyone else but, protect Tampa please!
The latest Euro is showing on heck of storm for the SOUTH next week. A major TORNADO OUTBREAK appears to be looming next week in Florida as heat and humidity will be in place for this next storm system. A key ingredient that has been missing so far this winter across Florida.
12. 789
NOAA and NASA officials announced a new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), launched last night, successfully reached its initial orbit, joining four other GOES spacecraft that help NOAA forecasters track life-threatening weather and solar activity.

“Our geostationary satellites are the nation’s weather sentinels in the sky,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator. “With more than 35 million Americans living in hurricane prone areas and more than 1,000 tornadoes touching down in the U.S. annually, we need the reliable, accurate data that these satellites provide.”

GOES-P is the final spacecraft in the latest series of NOAA geostationary satellites, capturing higher resolution images of weather patterns and atmospheric measurements than those provided by earlier satellites. The higher resolution allows forecasters to pinpoint the location of severe weather with greater accuracy.

GOES-P also provides better data for space and solar weather thanks to its Solar X-Ray Imager. The SXI imager is to space weather forecasting what satellite images are to hurricane forecasting. This data will improve forecasts and warnings for solar disturbances, protecting billions of dollars of commercial and government assets in space and on the ground. This vital information will also reduce the effect of power surges for the satellite-based electronics and communications industry.

On March 4, GOES-P will be placed in its final orbit and renamed GOES-15. Once it reaches geostationary orbit, GOES-P will undergo a series of tests for approximately six months before completing its “check-out” phase. After check out, GOES-P will be placed into orbital storage and remain ready for activation if one of the operational GOES fail.

Since the first GOES launch in 1974, these satellites have supplied the data critical for fast, accurate weather forecasts and warnings, detecting solar storm activity and relaying distress signals from emergency beacons. (NOAA, excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100304_satellite.html )

Take the Grace of Time now,to be prepared come June 1.

Preparation is the "Key" to being ready for whatever the 2010 Season Brings.

One has to have a Hurricane Plan to make sure your family is safe.

Have a Evacuation Destination as well.

A Lil Planning now along with solid Preps for protecting ones home is vital to being ready.



getagameplan.org






Quoting TampaSpin:
I hope the Indian Gods keep protecting Tampa! Not wishing anything on anyone else but, protect Tampa please!


I hate to say it, but Tampa and the west coast are due.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami estimated the storm was a full-fledged, Category I hurricane with central winds between 75 mph and 80 mph (121 kph to 129 kph), making it the first hurricane in the South Atlantic in recorded history.

Another one for the record books.
Our work in Haiti continues, as the need is so great. With your continued support we are able to make an important difference there.

Yet another shipment of durable medical equipment (our fourth) left our Atlanta warehouse for our University Quisqueya staging area Wednesday, February 17. Additionally, 7000lbs of rice is leaving today from New Orleans.

Today we are receiving a truckload of canned water into our Atlanta warehouse. Another truckload of canned water will arrive Tuesday. Also, we will receive 10,000lbs of instant rice late next week.

Our team in Haiti, led by Richard Lumarque, continues to make contact with un-served, under served and forgotten populations affected by the earthquake. Small NGO's like Portlight are truly the people getting things done.

Thursday our team hosted Bill Rancic, of 'Apprentice' fame. We facilitated distribution of food he delivered to Haiti and travelled with him as he surveyed the damage.

Richard has connected with Dr. Michael Paen, head of the Haitian Secretariat on Disability Issues. We are working with him to identify and fill needs.

Each 40ft container we ship costs approximately $5000.00. Please remember: we have opened an efficient delivery and distribution system. In fact, many of the large institutional organizations are coming to us for equipment needs.

Ours is a true grassroots effort. Everyone who has made a financial contribution, said a prayer...or wished us well...owns what we are doing in Haiti. Thousands of people are suffering there. Your support of our efforts eases that suffering for those we are serving.

Thank you for all you have done...and will continue to do.

www.portlight.org

Portlight Strategies, Inc.

2043 Maybank Hwy.

Charleston, SC 29412

(843)817-2651

Richard Lumarque

Blog is DEAD today




St. Petersburg, FL
Fair

57 %uFFFDF

Humidity: 40 %
Wind Speed: NE 3 MPH
Barometer: 30.19" (1022.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 30 %uFFFDF (-1 %uFFFDC)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Monday, February 22, 2010
A Frightening New Law of Hurricane Formation



A new mathematical model of hurricane formation finally solves one of the outstanding puzzles of climate change but also predicts dramatic increases in the number of storms as the world warms.




What factors determine how hurricanes form? Meteorologists have long known that two factors play crucial roles. First, the temperature of the sea determines the updraft of air that leads to a storm. Second, the latitude governs the strength of the Coriolis Force which triggers the initial vorticity of the storm (which is why hurricanes do not form at the equator and rotate in opposite senses in each hemisphere).

Today, Robert Ehrlich, a physicist at George Mason University in Washington DC, shows how these two variables alone can account for the probability density of a hurricane or tropical storm forming. No other factors need be taken into account.

Ehrlich's approach is a to create an elegant mathematical model of the system that relies on only two variables: the temperature of the sea above a threshold of 25.5 degrees C and the latitude of the ocean at that point.

He then fits the function to the data from real hurricanes ie sea surface temperatures and latitude data from satellite images from 1960 until 2007. This determines that the power law has an exponent of 3.5 for most parts of the globe.

Fitting the data to a curve by no means proves that a model is correct but Ehrlich is able to make some interesting observations using it. One problem that climatologists have puzzled over in recent years is that the number of hurricanes have increased in the north Atlantic but not in the Pacific, despite similar temperature increases. Many say that this is proof that other factors must influence hurricane formation.

However, there's an important difference between these regions: in the Atlantic, the water tends to be cooler to start with and the hurricanes tend to form at a slightly higher latitude.

When you take this into account, the difference in the number of hurricanes is exactly what Ehrlich's model predicts. He says the specific form of his mathematical model "yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures".

That could help to solve an important climate change puzzle but before greater reliance can be placed on Ehrlich's, it needs to show its colours by accurately forecasting the numbers of hurricanes in the next few years. Its predictions do not make for pleasant reading.

The exponent of 3.5 in Ehrlich's power law means that numbers of hurricanes should increase sharply as the world warms and much more dramatically than climatologists have been expecting. His prediction is that a 2 degree C increase in average temperature will lead to an 11-fold increase in the number of hurricanes.

And the increase in numbers of hurricanes is only part of the story, he says. "An eleven-fold increase in hurricanes at a particular location would just be one part of the story, which would include (1) a potentially larger increase in the total number of hurricanes given the increase in the size of the basin as temperatures rise, (2) an increase in the destructive potential of each hurricane, and (3) an increase in the height of the storm surge due to rising sea levels that would invariably occur in a warmer world."

Frightening stuff.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1002.3291: A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function



It turns out that the fucnt exactly matches the distribution his model predicts
This weeks of quakes.
The vancancy or lack of any earthquakes along the west coast of the ConUs i am not liking......gotta be some major buildup ready to be released coming soon.....this could be really bad when it happens!!!

Quoting TampaSpin:
The vancancy or lack of any earthquakes along the ConUs i am not liking......gotta be some major buildup ready to be released coming soon.....this could be really bad when it happens!!!


I use the USGS Source maps which show ALL the Shakers

Latest Earthquakes in the USA - Last 7 days


Good morning all.

Glad to see the Brazilian feature got the Dr.'s attention. I find it quite interesting. As he mentioned it is still quite disorganized this morning, more so than yesterday, with a less well-defined circulation. I should point out that none of the models were doing anything much with this system until tonight or tomorrow anyway, as they are sensing how long it may take for this to get its act together, if it can at all. The CMC is still the most bullish and is getting even more aggressive with each run.



Oh and I'm getting absolutely creamed up here by a major Alaskan winter storm. Sustained tropical storm force winds and 6+ inches of snow overnight (can't tell exactly how much because I've got 3-foot drifts outside the door!) have been battering us all night, and this will continue through tomorrow morning as the storm is a very slow mover. Could end up with a foot and a half of snow before this is over.

Quoting TampaSpin:
StormW FundRaiser for Hurricane Conference

StormW FundRaiser Forum

WoW!!!! You all did it. Just checked Google checkout and Paypal and we now have
donations of $520 less fees its just over $500!!!
Thank you all very much!!! I will get the $350 paid for Registration fees and give StormW the remaining amount for his travel expenses and needs. He is truly a tremendous asset with his knowledge!
Again Thank you all!

Oh, gosh, I just came in to read main blog after doing a little "bumping" and (maybe a little unintentional nagging) on other blogs!!

This is wonderful news; I have to go in and update other, and my own, blogs.

I'd like to add my own thanks to all who were able to help in these hard times, and TampaSpin for running with an idea; collecting funds and distributing receipts to donors.
Here's another one for the record books:
Statement as of 7:33 am EST on March 5, 2010
... Record low temperature set at Orlando international today...
A daily record low temperature of 37 degrees was set at Orlando international today... March 5 2010. This breaks the old record of 38
set in 2002.
I'm sure all of these abnormalities are normal despite what the scientists are saying about how the pollutants we emit are disrupting our atmosphere.
We just have to live another thousand years to prove it. That's a good scientific argument. Yeah, sure.



Oh and I'm getting absolutely creamed up here by a major Alaskan winter storm. Sustained tropical storm force winds and 6 inches of snow overnight (can't tell exactly how much because I've got 3-foot drifts outside the door!) have been battering us all night, and this will continue through tomorrow morning as the storm is a very slow mover. Could end up with a foot and a half of snow before this is over.

KOTG
nothing new be snowing there till end of may early june welcome to alaska
From HPC South America Forecast Discussion:

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1142 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

NOTE: MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF BRASIL. THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF SAO PAULO...TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BRASIL. BUT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...TOPOGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND THE SERRA DO MAR IS VERY
LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE COLD CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN A
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION
AND WATER SPOUTS.

"Most likely to develop off the coast of Sao Paulo"? Wow that's so funny....guess what....the only model that does that is the GFS, which handles the situation poorly and develops a subtropical low right under the cold-core upper low that will be moving off of Uruguay. The ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET all develop the current low up near Caravelas, Brazil, and bring it southward, which makes a lot of sense given the situation (again think of a stalled front off the Carolinas, which is essentially what this is).

Apparently these guys are another band of slaves to the GFS lol. The discussion goes on to describe radical changes to the forecast based on the GFS swinging to a completely different solution in the flow pattern across South America. Let's just trust the computer to the bitter end I guess.

Lol...anyway...point in posting this is that the HPC is still saying conditions are favorable for subtropical (or tropical) development off the coast of Brazil, but it will more than likely not be where they think, because the GFS is not always right.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Oh and I'm getting absolutely creamed up here by a major Alaskan winter storm. Sustained tropical storm force winds and 6 inches of snow overnight (can't tell exactly how much because I've got 3-foot drifts outside the door!) have been battering us all night, and this will continue through tomorrow morning as the storm is a very slow mover. Could end up with a foot and a half of snow before this is over.

KOTG
nothing new be snowing there till end of may early june welcome to alaska


KOTG....I live here remember. We haven't had a storm like this since November....we've been like Vancouver up here 15 degrees above normal all winter with mostly rain and no snow.

And no we don't get snow until June we get it through March with occasional surprise snows in April. The only thing that sometimes lasts through June is part of the snowpack that doesn't like to melt in the shade. The only time that we still had snow on the ground in June was back when I was 6, when we had a 10-foot snow pack that had to melt all spring. Since then our average snow pack has been 2-3 feet.

Last May we nearly busted 80 degrees here. Our spring comes at the same time as the lower 48.
Quoting Levi32:


KOTG....I live here remember. We haven't had a storm like this since November....we've been like Vancouver up here 15 degrees above normal all winter with mostly rain and no snow.

And no we don't get snow until June we get it through March with occasional surprise snows in April. The only thing that sometimes lasts through June is part of the snowpack that doesn't like to melt in the shade. The only time that we still had snow on the ground in June was back when I was 6, when we had a 10-foot snow pack that had to melt all spring. Since then our average snow pack has been 2-3 feet.

Last May we nearly busted 80 degrees here. Our spring comes at the same time as the lower 48.
i know you live there levi i also know ya all been gettig some nice weather but guess what nice weather don't last forever and by the way our little system over southern atlantic was a nice call if in fact it happens just proves that 2010 is about to get a whole lot more interesting yet
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know you live there levi i also know ya all been gettig some nice weather but guess what nice weather don't last forever and by the way our little system over southern atlantic was a nice call if in fact it happens just proves that 2010 is about to get a whole lot more interesting yet


Yes....I know nice weather doesn't last forever...

I did get surprised by this storm though because the last one was nearly identical and didn't drop more than a few flakes. I just tried to go outside and you know what I think we got more on the order of 18 inches overnight. Everything is covered in almost 2 feet of snow so it's not just drifts. Homer airport was reporting snow rates of 2-3 inches per hour all night. And it's still coming down very hard. This could be a 3-footer for us. That's only happened 3 times here this decade.
yes a post with no reference to CC or AGW or GW,

thanks for the update Jeff!

Quoting tornadodude:
yes a post with no reference to CC or AGW or GW,

thanks for the update Jeff!



Oh it's coming....if this Brazilian system develops he'll post something about more frequent south Atlantic tropical cyclones in a warming world...
Quoting tornadodude:
yes a post with no reference to CC or AGW or GW,

thanks for the update Jeff!



Ahhhhhh, Life Is Good! As long as Alaska doesn't mind getting pounded by a snowstorm -- I have a feeling they can handle it, though!

Okay, I'm engaged in silly Friday morning procrastination project -- I can hardly find any songs associated with this year's Hurricane names -- getting "Rick-shawed" by Rick Astley was hilarious last year!

There's "Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean" (oh dear) for Bonnie, and I'll post the Oldie for Paula -- but is anybody else able and willing to help out?

Good afternoon, by the way! Friday cliff-hanger "All My Kids" time...
Quoting tornadodude:
yes a post with no reference to CC or AGW or GW,

thanks for the update Jeff!



Yea its about time! Who does he think he is trying to talk to us about GW by showing us facts and statistics. What does he think this is the Jeff Masters Blog... Oh Wait...
Quoting tornadodude:
yes a post with no reference to CC or AGW or GW,

thanks for the update Jeff!



SSSSHHHHHH! :)

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Ahhhhhh, Life Is Good! As long as Alaska doesn't mind getting pounded by a snowstorm -- I have a feeling they can handle it, though!


Well we can, but even Alaskan schools close for 2 feet of snow in 10 hours lol. It came down too fast for our sophisticated plow system to keep up. My town is shut down right now.
12z CMC is out. It's still aggressive on the Brazilian system, but is beginning to move it quite fast off to the south, bringing it over waters cooler than 26C in 60 hours, inducing extratropical transition. The model has the system at hurricane strength before that point, although not fully tropical based on the phase diagram.


Was it me, or did the morning anchors giggle like school girls at the mention of GOES-P this morning?
Ancient music history...
If this year's storms get up to "Paula" --


Paul & Paula - Hey Paula
Current SSTs:



Current Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Ancient music history...
If this year's storms get up to "Paula" --


Paul & Paula - Hey Paula
Uploaded by beatnickbandit. - See the latest featured music videos.


You couldn't possibly remember that song!!!!
Well I gotta go dig out....my poor dog is bunny hopping around because she can't see. Every time she hops she disappears in a hole, then leaps up again and vanishes again. She's pretty bummed out lol. She's a large Golden Retriever too...that's how deep the snow is. Later all.
Quoting Grothar:


You couldn't possibly remember that song!!!!


Sure could! Not long after Richie Valens "Oh, Donna", I think. Little record player and 45's ... oh, and I won a "Twist" contest in 5th grade.

Some reward for my poor Mom for the Modern Dance and Ballet lessons... trying to help her nerdy kid over the awkward phase (I think that phase lasted until about, oh, never mind...)
This is a Hurricane Kit item I tested recently.

These things work really well.

The Lithium Ion battery (no battery memory issues) and induction charging technology (no contacts used for charging) make this unit much better than the others I have used.

Although not mentioned in this link, the unit packaging states it is water resistant. Great nightlight also. It does not obstruct the other outlet on the duplex either if place on the top one.

Just a thought for ya as you think about preparation moving forward :)

http://www.samsclub.com/shopping/navigate.do?dest=5&item=418344
"Yea its about time! Who does he think he is trying to talk to us about GW by showing us facts and statistics. "

"Facts are meaningless. You can use facts to prove anything that's remotely true." -Homer Simpson
Levi32 needs to go hunt a moose.
.
... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 am akst
Saturday south of Ninilchik...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 am akst
Saturday.

A strong low near Kodiak moves over northern Cook Inlet this
evening. Cold air on the backside of this low will produce strong
westerly winds along with moderate snow showers south of
Ninilchik. The resultant snow and blowing snow will reduce
visibilities to one quarter mile or less at times beginning this
evening. Conditions will slowly improve Saturday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to white-out
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. All travel and
outdoor activity is strongly discouraged.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is actually pretty bad here. I just shoveled one of our walkways and we easily have 2 feet of snow average on the ground, with 5-foot drifts in places. It's still coming down hard and tonight it's only going to get worse as we get lake-effect enhancement from the cold air behind the storm.

Now that I look at it (been bored with Alaska weather lately so I haven't really looked yet), this is one of the worst possible storm tracks for snowfall in my area. This is the perfect storm right now. It can't get any better than this. The storm is riding right up Cook Inlet which makes for a seamless transition from overrunning snow to lake-effect snow on the back side of the storm. We could have 3-4 feet before it's all over.

Latest Satellite (Yellow dot represents Homer, where I live):



Latest Visible Image: (click image for loop)



Radar:

Quoting bappit:
Levi32 needs to go hunt a moose.


Only if he does it from a Helicopter.
51. Levi32 2:14 PM EST on March 05, 2010 Did not realize you presently lived in Alaska but you have very good knowledge on tropical systems.....Did you ever live in the SE CONUS or are you a Pro or trained Met?
Quoting Ossqss:
This is a Hurricane Kit item I tested recently.

These things work really well.

The Lithium Ion battery (no battery memory issues) and induction charging technology (no contacts used for charging) make this unit much better than the others I have used.

Although not mentioned in this link, the unit packaging states it is water resistant. Great nightlight also. It does not obstruct the other outlet on the duplex either if place on the top one.

Just a thought for ya as you think about preparation moving forward :)

http://www.samsclub.com/shopping/navigate.do?dest=5&item=418344


I prefer the hand-crank flashlights. Not as bright, but you never run out of batteries.

Another thing I bought and used is a backup power pack. This is the one I have, but there are others. It's come in very handy, both for camping and blackouts. It's not a generator, but we've attached it to a marine battery and we get about 17 hours of laptop time. It's also handy for jump starting cars and trucks.

For general household lighting in blackouts, we use these "flying saucer" looking LED lights. They're about six inches in diameter and have 24 LEDs around the edge. They use four AA's. They put out light equivalent to maybe a 25-watt light bulb, by my estimate. I can generally use them for at least two nights on one set of batteries, though after the first night the brightness lessens.

Birthmark = been through waaaay too many power failures.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
51. Levi32 2:14 PM EST on March 05, 2010 Did not realize you presently lived in Alaska but you have very good knowledge on tropical systems.....Did you ever live in the SE CONUS or are you a Pro or trained Met?


I was born here in Homer Alaska, never lived anywhere else. I know it's ironic that I love the tropics lol. That's where my blog name comes from, "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra". No I just graduated high school last month so I am not a professional. I hope to go to college this fall and become one lol.
Quoting Levi32:


I was born here in Homer Alaska, never lived anywhere else. I know it's ironic that I love the tropics lol. That's where my blog name comes from, "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra". No I just graduated high school last month so I am not a professional. I hope to go to college this fall and become one lol.


Good for You Bro......Your current Blog is outstanding and you are off to a great start...Stay safe and keep us posted...WW
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good for You Bro......Your current Blog is outstanding and you are off to a great start...Stay safe and keep us posted...WW


Thank you :)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Back to shoveling for a spell...this was my break to warm up lol.
Quoting Levi32:


I was born here in Homer Alaska, never lived anywhere else. I know it's ironic that I love the tropics lol. That's where my blog name comes from, "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra". No I just graduated high school last month so I am not a professional. I hope to go to college this fall and become one lol.


Wow never pegged you to be a recent graduee. But I'm glad that there's some of us young ones out there with the same mindset. How'd old were you when you started looking at the tropics?
Quoting TampaTom:
Hey, gang...

We just posted our March 2010 edition of the E-Lert Emergency Management newsletter.

Wouldn't mind if you gave it a peek...


Looks like a government publication. lol
Quoting StormChaser81:


Looks like a government publication. lol


Funny... that's what it is! :-)
Interesting article about the constant lightning storms in Venezuela that have disappeared due to el nino

link to story
Quoting Levi32:


I was born here in Homer Alaska, never lived anywhere else. I know it's ironic that I love the tropics lol. That's where my blog name comes from, "Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra". No I just graduated high school last month so I am not a professional. I hope to go to college this fall and become one lol.


Didn't have you pegged as a young adult. You have a lot of knowledge and passion for the weather. Keep up your education. Maybe we can see you one day on The Weather Channel's topical segment. I think you can bring them some respectability back.
Not changing the subject of winter or anything, but has anyone seen a 30 day outlook on what the weather is going to be for March in the South East? I am about tired of weather in the upper 20's for a low and mid 50's for a high. I am on the Gulf coast and ready for Spring. I like the temps in mid 40's and upper 70's....
54 Birthmark,

It is important to know that most of those hand crank lights/radios utilize NiCd batteries and cycling them is critical to their long term viability. If you crank them in the midst of a high end discharge, you can effectively and permanently reduce their capacity resulting in a higher crank rate for the same output.

The battery memory problem referenced earlier ( also applicable to a lesser degree with NiMH batteries)

Now the Faraday style shake lights don't have that issue. Just a whole lotta shakin goin on (cue song?) :)

BTW, the power packs are great items also. I maintain one (18 Ah battery) that is a 6 in 1 with jump start and air compressor capabilities and a built in extension light etc. Gotta keep those Lead Acid batteries charged fully all the time for best performance. I use it regularly along with an inverter for AC powered items.

Note, some devices and chargers don't like the square wave output of most inverters, be careful. L8R

54. Birthmark, thank you, this backup power pack looks like something I could really use. BTW, the model you linked to is discontinued, but I see it's still available for $180 at Northern... anyone know if that's a good price?
65. Oss - just saw your post, I shudda' read further. Would you be so kind, if you have a link available, to the kind of power-pack model you mean?
TIA.
we sure saw a bunch of wannabes last atlantic season but no chabang
Quoting Skepticall:


Wow never pegged you to be a recent graduee. But I'm glad that there's some of us young ones out there with the same mindset. How'd old were you when you started looking at the tropics?


Well I wasn't introduced to the internet until I was 10 years old, in 2002. Hurricane Lili was the first storm I really tracked, during the 2002 hurricane season. I remember watching Joe Bastardi talking about why Isidore wasn't able to re-strengthen over the GOM and why Lili weakened in the cold SST wake behind Isidore before hitting Louisiana.

Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was so intriguing to me. I must have saved hundreds of loops of her. I kept tracking until 2005 when I found this site. My stupid internet wouldn't let me join until November, 2005 when I first started writing blogs, but I was a full-time lurker here during Katrina and all the rest, watching Lefty and Stormtop argue about the storms.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
65. Oss - just saw your post, I shudda' read further. Would you be so kind, if you have a link available, to the kind of power-pack model you mean?
TIA.


AIM, this is the exact one I purchased a couple years ago. I paid $59 with a $10 rebate at BJ's wholesale. Seems the price has gone way up on them. They do have several at the wholesale clubs like Sams. Note, you can change the batteries in these if they go bad. Just like most APC power conditioners that folks use on their PC's. Most folks buy new ones instead of just replacing the battery :)


Unit I purchased

One from Sam's, but not sure if it has a DC socket. Good luck :)

http://www.samsclub.com/shopping/navigate.do?dest=5&item=429493

Note, the difference in the other style is a built in inverter for AC power. I use an external inverter unit with mine that can also be plugged into my vehicle or other DC source to provide the same AC power.
Quoting StormW:


Ya...known Levi for about 5 years now...and I must say, I'm extremely impressed with how much he has learned and furthered his knowledge. Definitely another asset for hurricane season.


Thanks for the compliment Storm :) That means a lot coming from you. I've learned a ton from you and others on this site. It's been an invaluable experience getting to be on here in this community.
Silver Springs Shores

Conditions=Sunny

Temperature=61 Degrees F

Humidity=20%

Dewpoint=19 Degrees F

What lovely weather we are having!
71. Ossgss, thank you; you're always so helpful

BTW, I think you recommended the Boss Eureka upright vacuum to me (was that you?) Anyway, it indeed had excellent expert and consumer reviews.

I went ahead and splurged a little on a Panasonic for $113, free shipping inc., also had good reviews, lots of features, on Amazon.com.

As it's a weather blog I'll stop there (I'll post more when I update my own blog this weekend), I just wanted to say I appreciate your help.
Quoting weatherbro:
Silver Springs Shores

Conditions=Sunny

Temperature=61 Degrees F

Humidity=20%

Dewpoint=19 Degrees F

What lovely weather we are having!


Dang, thought that was Silver SPRING for a second. Oh well, not so bad here either. Whoo Hoo, it's clear, sunny and 52F ... finally broke 50... we'll take it.
Wow the arctic airmass wrapping into this snowstorm is incredible. St. George Island, Alaska has broken its all-time record daily low temperature by a margin of 20 degrees F for the last 8 days in a row! The Aleutian Islands are experiencing temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal on the back side of the storm. When this air hits Cook Inlet tonight it's gonna spark one heck of a lake-effect event, which could double the amount of snow that's already fallen in front of the storm. Could end up being the worst storm we've had since the Great Valentines Day Storm of 1999, when we got 8 feet of snow in 3 days.

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
54. Birthmark, thank you, this backup power pack looks like something I could really use. BTW, the model you linked to is discontinued, but I see it's still available for $180 at Northern... anyone know if that's a good price?


We paid around $120. I think that was at Amazon.

Ossqss: Agree on all counts, of course. I had one problem due the inverter. I don't remember what exactly. I just remember that I unplugged one thing. (It wasn't the laptop. I watched that *real* carefully. LOL)




Blizzard and High Wind Warnings in red:

I see GW is taking vengeance on you Levi! That massive snowstorm will teach you to go against the doctrine. :)
Lotta screams about this being 2004 part 2. Hope not, after Charley and friends... :(
Really impressing, Levi! Good luck.
Webcam Homer:

Quoting tornadofan:
I see GW is taking vengeance on you Levi! That massive snowstorm will teach you to go against the doctrine. :)


Haha well storms like this were more common back in the '50s, '60s, and '70s....back when Alaska earned its reputation as the most hostile place in North America. It has since become much nicer during the warm PDO, but with the PDO going back cold Alaska will become very harsh once again. The difference really is incredible....the coldest temperature recorded in the United States, -80F, occured here in Alaska in 1971 during the cold PDO. Average winter snow-pack here on the north side of Homer averages 6-8 feet during a cold PDO, but 2-3 feet in a warm one.
Quoting barbamz:
Really impressing, Levi! Good luck.



:O I forgot about the volcano cams, thanks! All the old Homer webcams disappeared over the last year.
Quoting Levi32:


:O I forgot about the volcano cams, thanks! All the old Homer webcams disappeared over the last year.


Well, I'm still watching ol' Redoubt from time to time. In some way I fell in love with him/her last year ...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Comparisons to Cyclone Catarina
Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength.


YOu all remember these 2004 storms...we might be facing a simialar pattern coming!
Hurricane Alex
Tropical Storm Bonnie
Hurricane Charley
Hurricane Danielle
Tropical Storm Earl
Hurricane Frances
Hurricane Gaston*
Tropical Storm Hermine
Hurricane Ivan
Tropical Depression Ten
Hurricane Jeanne
Hurricane Karl
Hurricane Lisa
Tropical Storm Matthew
Subtropical Storm Nicole
Tropical Storm Otto


With the exception of Charley, Frances Ivan and Jeanne.. this list is the same exact one as that year too.
Now only 87 days to the Season begins.
Seemed like yesterday it was 170 something.
Red weather alert in Germany again. Little (!) blizzard just coming in. Hopefully the last gift of this winter.

POES (Polar-orbiting) Satellite pass of southcentral Alaska from 2 hours ago. The center of the low is over northern Kodiak Island, the large island just to the right of the center of the image.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Now only 87 days to the Season begins.
Seemed like yesterday it was 170 something.
time passes quickly now sun racing north
Quoting Levi32:
This is actually pretty bad here. I just shoveled one of our walkways and we easily have 2 feet of snow average on the ground, with 5-foot drifts in places. It's still coming down hard and tonight it's only going to get worse as we get lake-effect enhancement from the cold air behind the storm.

Now that I look at it (been bored with Alaska weather lately so I haven't really looked yet), this is one of the worst possible storm tracks for snowfall in my area. This is the perfect storm right now. It can't get any better than this. The storm is riding right up Cook Inlet which makes for a seamless transition from overrunning snow to lake-effect snow on the back side of the storm. We could have 3-4 feet before it's all over.


Couldn't this be kinda bad for the Iditarod mushers with the bulk of the race starting tomorrow?
Quoting Levi32:
Wow the arctic airmass wrapping into this snowstorm is incredible. St. George Island, Alaska has broken its all-time record daily low temperature by a margin of 20 degrees F for the last 8 days in a row! The Aleutian Islands are experiencing temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal on the back side of the storm. When this air hits Cook Inlet tonight it's gonna spark one heck of a lake-effect event, which could double the amount of snow that's already fallen in front of the storm. Could end up being the worst storm we've had since the Great Valentines Day Storm of 1999, when we got 8 feet of snow in 3 days.



You set to keep power through this?
Quoting Greyelf:


Couldn't this be kinda bad for the Iditarod mushers with the bulk of the race starting tomorrow?


It's actually not that bad inland. Anchorage only got a dusting of snow overnight. The below image shows warnings (red) and advisories (yellow). Notice the red is all confined to the southern coastal zones, where the blizzard warnings are. Further inland where the Iditarod Trail is there are a couple wind advisories and winter weather advisories for a few inches of snow, but nothing really bad for the mushers.

Quoting Skyepony:


You set to keep power through this?


We usually do ok if the wind doesn't hit hurricane-force gusts, but the snow is going to get heavy this afternoon with the last of the warm sector so falling trees and power lines could be a problem. Tonight it will get very cold very fast on the back side of the storm which is when the lake-effect will start. That's when it could get very windy with 55mph gusts expected to funnel right up the bay. Hopefully this won't knock down the heavy trees, but I bet some will.
Quoting Levi32:


It's actually not that bad inland. Anchorage only got a dusting of snow overnight. The below image shows warnings (red) and advisories (yellow). Notice the red is all confined to the southern coastal zones, where the blizzard warnings are. Further inland where the Iditarod Trail is there are a couple wind advisories and winter weather advisories for a few inches of snow, but nothing really bad for the mushers.






another is forming right behind it looks like a double hitter
Hey Levi 32 during the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season..which hurricane do you think caused more damage to the East Coast of Florida: Frances or Jeanne?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





another is forming right behind it looks like a double hitter


That's actually just a small vertically-stacked polar low under the intense 500mb low moving east across the Bering Sea. This itself won't affect us much, but the upper low will be hanging around over SW Alaska over the weekend, and another storm, though weaker than this one, will be moving along the jetstream into the Gulf of Alaska on Monday.
Quoting troy1993:
Hey Levi 32 during the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season..which hurricane do you think caused more damage to the East Coast of Florida: Frances or Jeanne?


Pop-quiz? Lol.

Jeanne was stronger at landfall but I'm going to say Frances because the eye was massive at landfall and he was moving very slowly, spending much more time over Florida than Jeanne.
Here is the Great Valentines Day Storm of 1999. You won't find anything about it easily on the internet because nobody cares about Alaska lol. This is the best archived satellite image I can find. Today's storm won't even come close to topping this one but may very well be the worst since then. This storm to my knowledge was the worst storm in Homer's recorded history as a town.

Phase Diagram of today's storm:





100. xcool
i hear Alaska bored
101. N3EG
Just a note about crank flashlights...they do have batteries in them to store energy from cranking. One had a "computer backup" style nickel metal hydride battery, and another had a lithium rechargeable coin cell. When they short from being left on and run flat, you can crank all you want and nothing happens.
Quoting xcool:
i hear Alaska bored


It usually is boring....at least if you've lived here a long time, especially the last few years. I don't generally pay much attention to the weather here unless something like today happens. We're used to snow here, and that's the only form of severe weather we ever get. Some of the last few summers have seen some scary stuff though. 2005 (a freaky year in every way) was the hottest summer I can remember, and we had a tornado 60 miles to the north of me. To put that in perspective, there was only 1 tornado reported in Alaska before that in recorded history, and that was in the interior where convection generally forms. We only get 1 or 2 thunderstorms per year here because we're close to the water.

In 2005 we had cloud-to-ground lighting during the night but I didn't get to see it (I still have never seen lightning in my life), and more thunderstorms than any other summer. The National Weather Service had to issue a severe thunderstorm warning for my county for the first time ever.
Quoting xcool:
i hear Alaska bored


LOL! I don't think SO, at least not today!

Your baby boy's first spring is coming, xcool!
You should take a trip just to see a good lightning storm. Can be amazing stuff.
Quoting bappit:
You should take a trip just to see a good lightning storm. Can be amazing stuff.


I bet. The downpours must be insane too. The maximum dBZ I've seen here was like 40 (light orange on WU radar). My brother has been on one trip to Wisconsin in the summertime and said the thunderstorms are like taking a shower, like literally pouring water, when you step outside.
Quoting bappit:
You should take a trip just to see a good lightning storm. Can be amazing stuff.
proably scare the hell right outta him
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
proably scare the hell right outta him


Lol
Oh my Levi, Lightning is pretty much the greatest thing ever. I haven't seen one in a couple months glad I'm going to get some severe weather here monday!
LOL Wisconsin? Thunderstorm?

A Gulf coast summer thunderstorm rain is painful, like bb's.
I haven't been stupid enough to sit out in one for a long time though. :)
Quoting bappit:
LOL Wisconsin? Thunderstorm?

A Gulf coast summer thunderstorm rain is painful, like bb's.


Lol wow...
Meh, I doubt it's going to be like 2004...2004 was an El Nino and had above average shear...true it was a bad hurricane season, though all condensed into a span of less than two months.

2004's not an analog year however. I doubt this S. Atlantic disturbance even develops into anything.
Anyone on the list in Haiti or the DR? I need to get updates on the progession of the rainy season in Haiti which should be beginning shortly....just got back from Haiti myself.
115. xcool
oh
Appears NHC has started tracking the Brazil storm as a "test", designated sl80. Appears they have designated it a TD, not sure why.


SL 80 2010030500 BEST 0 181S 253W 20 1007 TD
SL 80 2010030506 BEST 0 187S 270W 20 1007 TD
SL 80 2010030512 BEST 0 194S 284W 20 1007 TD
SL 80 2010030518 BEST 0 200S 300W 20 1009 TD
okay so we have a supposed sub tropical system. what does bely for the atlantic season, an early ramp up or building season
According to wiki the six cyclones occurred in
1974 (Sub Tropical)
1991
2004 (2 storms Catarina and a TD)
2006
2009 (Subtropical)
Those seasons look like this





so really there is no correlation between South Atlantic and North Atlantic hurricanes
Webcam still showing no visibility whatsoever across Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay. Heavy snow bands are rotating in once every 15 minutes or so with 5-10 minute breaks in between each band. This is calm compared to what we had last night and will probably have again tonight in another form.

The posts have no snow on top of them because the temperature has actually risen a little bit above freezing at sea level because we are now in the warmest quadrant of the storm, but tonight the temperature will crash into the teens and lake-effect could dump another foot on us overnight.

Link

CAN.GEM.MODEL
quiet in here
Good Evening!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
quiet in here


I didn't know you could do that with html lol.
just learning
Everybody's waiting for a TD to develop in the S. Atlantic. lol
This is weird...I can't get the code you used to work in Chrome so I opened Firefox but I don't even see your text moving in Firefox, only Chrome shows it. This must be a new html thing or something.
So how goes the south american disturbance? I see some convection on Goes East, but im not sure if im looking at the right thing.
Why won't this work
I predict we will have our first tropical system before June 1st this year.
Quoting MrstormX:
So how goes the south american disturbance? I see some convection on Goes East, but im not sure if im looking at the right thing.


This is the site to go to for most up-to-date imagery (every hour). The disturbance is more disorganized than yesterday and is currently just an open surface trough of low pressure with scattered moderate convection. I'm not nearly as impressed with it, but it still has time to play around, and there is still a small chance for tropical development. It's starting to look like this system can't handle 20 knots of westerly shear though.
Quoting Jackone:
Everybody's waiting for a TD to develop in the S. Atlantic. lol

Were not even sure it will develop
nice to get a taste of hurricane season again though
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
quiet in here



how are you able to do that?
The low is showing up on radar spinning northward up Cook Inlet:

Quoting Levi32:


This is the site to go to for most up-to-date imagery (every hour). The disturbance is more disorganized than yesterday and is currently just an open surface trough of low pressure with scattered moderate convection. I'm not nearly as impressed with it, but it still has time to play around, and there is still a small chance for tropical development. It's starting to look like this system can't handle 20 knots of westerly shear though.


Thanks for the link, I hope it does develop! It would be fun to watch a South Atlantic Cyclone.
Quoting WaterWitch11:



how are you able to do that?


HTML tag but I have a problem with WU, and I have no idea why. Everyone else seems to be able to use tags in here like font and marquee but I never have been able to. Whenever I enter the correct code it just shows normal text as if I had not entered any html. It drives me nuts.
Quoting Levi32:


HTML tag but I have a problem with WU, and I have no idea why. Everyone else seems to be able to use tags in here like font and marquee but I never have been able to. Whenever I enter the correct code it just shows normal text as if I had not entered any html. It drives me nuts.


Do you use Firefox, IE?
Quoting MrstormX:
Scrolling text part goes in here

Do you use Firefox, IE?


Chrome....in Firefox I can't even see Keeper's text scrolling, but in Chrome I can. Even the font tag doesn't work for me watch:

this text should be big and red
Quoting Levi32:


Chrome....in Firefox I can't even see Keeper's text scrolling, but in Chrome I can. Even the font tag doesn't work for me watch:

this text should be big and red


hmm thats odd...
Quoting Levi32:


Chrome....in Firefox I can't even see Keeper's text scrolling, but in Chrome I can. Even the font tag doesn't work for me watch:

this text should be big and red


Now I'll try the same thing in Firefox and see if it works:

this text should be big and red

Edit: nope....sigh
JavaScript issues?
Quoting MrstormX:
JavaScript issues?


Don't think so. I type up basic HTML all the time in here (Chrome doesn't have the buttons for images and links on top of the comment box so I have to do the code manually). But outside of the very basic tags none of them will work....right down to the simple font tag that works everywhere and is used in here all the time by other people. It's frustrating...
Quoting Levi32:


Now I'll try the same thing in Firefox and see if it works:

this text should be big and red

Edit: nope....sigh


Quote him and look at the format of the code in your active typing box. It's there, just be careful with the reproduction of it. Right, KOG? :)
Quoting Ossqss:


Quote him and look at the format of the code in your active typing box. It's there, just be careful with the reproduction of it. Right, KOG? :)


I did...it's a simple code and it doesn't work. I did the same thing when tampaspin uses the font tag and it's all correct but it doesn't work.
Quoting Levi32:


I did...it's a simple code and it doesn't work. I did the same thing when tampaspin uses the font tag and it's all correct but it doesn't work.


The question is, what's different? You are not bound by your browser. It's in the format. Good luck ! Gotta go >>> L8R
Alaska, Snow Anyone


I can see the eye, lol
Quoting StormChaser81:
Alaska, Snow Anyone


I can see the eye, lol


LOL...yeah well the low center isn't quite where the eye is :P

HPC got the low's position a little off. They based it off of satellite imagery instead of radar.

Quoting Levi32:


LOL...yeah well the low center isn't quite where the eye is :P

Quoting Levi32:


LOL...yeah well the low center isn't quite where the eye is :P



Yeah you can see it very visible just northeast of Homer, Alaska on the radar.

The back side seems to have less moisture, but probably more windy, with the straight line winds coming off the band going over homer.
Is there a naming list for the south Atlantic?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Is there a naming list for the south Atlantic?

No, in fact local meteorologists didn't even consider Catrina a cyclone at first.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Is there a naming list for the south Atlantic?


Nope none for the South Atlantic...

NHC name regions
Quoting StormChaser81:


Yeah you can see it very visible just northeast of Homer, Alaska on the radar.

The back side seems to have less moisture, but probably more windy, with the straight line winds coming off the band going over homer.


Yeah, I think you meant northwest of Homer. There is always less moisture on the back side of our lows but the airmass on the back side is very cold. Once we get into the strong westerly winds on the south side they will be blowing arctic air over Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay that will spark up lake-effect snow showers. These can get quite heavy and may dump up to another foot on us overnight. They are generally shallow and not visible on radar. They can deliver a 1-2 punch with storm systems that would usually shut off the snow on the back side for most areas. And yes it will be very windy with this. We're expecting gusts near 50 mph.
No. Cyclone Catarina was named for the Brazilian state most affected by the storm. It turned out later with post storm analysis that the hurricane made landfall in the northernmost coast of Rio Grande do Sul. Pressure was 972 mb and winds were 100 mph at landfall, close to peak intensity.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, I think you meant northwest of Homer. There is always less moisture on the back side of our lows but the airmass on the back side is very cold. Once we get into the strong westerly winds on the south side they will be blowing arctic air over Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay that will spark up lake-effect snow showers. These can get quite heavy and may dump up to another foot on us overnight. They are generally shallow and not visible on radar. And yes it will be very windy with this. We're expecting gusts near 50 mph.


Yeah Oops, northwest was what I was getting at...Crown Royal is starting to speak for me...lol
Quoting MrstormX:

No, in fact local meteorologists didn't even consider Catrina a cyclone at first.


Yeah that was the most ridiculous thing I had ever heard of at the time.
The system over Nebraska, is that a thunderstorm in the northern portion or just a heavy rain core?
Quoting MrstormX:
The system over Nebraska, is that a thunderstorm in the northern portion or just a heavy rain core?



I'd say a heavy rain/light snow, no lightning. 40-50 dbz.
hi guys just came back from fishing so what with our south atlantic Pre-invest/invest
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys just came back from fishing so what with our south atlantic Pre-invest/invest


Nothing exciting, limited development...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys just came back from fishing so what with our south atlantic Pre-invest/invest


The disturbance is more disorganized than yesterday and is currently just an open surface trough of low pressure with scattered moderate convection. I'm not nearly as impressed with it, but it still has time to play around, and there is still a small chance for tropical development. It's starting to look like this system can't handle 20 knots of westerly shear though.
I just can't wait for a North Atlantic System, there is nothing more exciting then watching a hurricane, or even a good tropical storm.
i have updated my blog

all so if your still uesing window XP
Please Upgrade too window 7 its time too move up too the next level of window you cant keep uesing window XP for evere

Link
They should have a list for the South Atlantic just say ten names and you're set for 50 years





Quoting MrstormX:
I just can't wait for a North Atlantic System, there is nothing more exciting then watching a hurricane, or even a good tropical storm.


I can't wait either wish we could see it within the next 2-3 weeks
We are officially in lake-effect mode here. The radar loop shows Homer in the clear now but the snow is still coming down and the temperature has begun to drop steeply. This is the classic signal of our local lake-effect process, and steady moderate to heavy snow showers should continue with gusty SW winds all night. We'll see how much piles up by morning.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I can't wait either wish we could see it within the next 2-3 weeks

it's all well and good to have a hurricane in the ATL but if i causes destruction and kills, that isn't something i would wish on anyone.
The light is about gone here but the visibility just took a nose-dive under 1 mile and the temperature has dropped 3 degrees in the last 30 minutes. Snow is still light but should steadily intensify throughout the night. From now on the snow will be mostly undetectable by radar.
Our little disturbance off Brazil.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Our little disturbance off Brazil.

bottom left or in the middle. Both don't look like much more than heavy rain.
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's all well and good to have a hurricane in the ATL but if i causes destruction and kills, that isn't something i would wish on anyone.


true I don't wish for the second part of your statement but yes it is all well and good to have in the Atl
Wow is this blog dead!

dead in here!

lol I attempted the scrolling text... Failed miserably lol
St George, QLD braces for flood peak

Emergency crews remain on standby at St George ahead of tonight's expected flood peak in the southern inland Queensland town.

Authorities estimate 1,600 St George residents could be affected by the flood-swollen Balonne River, with about 300 of them maybe spending tonight at an evacuation centre.

Crews are working to minimise further damage from the rising floodwaters in the town.

Council workers are trying to create a temporary levee by blocking streets near irrigation channels to prevent a second flood front on the southern side of town.

The Balonne River has risen 15 centimetres in the last six hours but authorities are still expecting a peak of 14 metres sometime tonight.

The river was just over 13.1 metres at noon AEST, surpassing the town's previous flood record set in 1890.

Extra State Emergency Service (SES) crews have headed to southern and south-west Queensland to help with the flood relief effort.

Residents have been warned about the possibility of record flooding that could have an impact on up to 80 per cent of St George.

Drains are being sandbagged to prevent water coming up through storm water pipes.

Water has entered several homes along the riverbank and several streets are flooded.

Power supplies are progressively being turned off in parts of the town that are flooded.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says the Federal Government has extended financial assistance to more flood-affected residents and says the Government will do whatever is necessary to help those affected.

"All Australians are with the good people of south-west Queensland as they tackle these extraordinary floods," he said.

"I'll be speaking to local mayors again today to see what if any assistance further can be provided.

"As with all these sorts of natural disasters and floods, the Australian Army stands ready to assist."

There have been plenty of curious onlookers this morning eager to see what parts of St George are under water.

In the 1990 floods, the river reached the handrails of the the town's Jack Taylor weir.

This morning it was well over the crossing and more streets were inundated.

The town's nursing home was evacuated yesterday and today the building was isolated by floodwaters.

Forty people stayed at the relief centre at the showgrounds overnight and the council is asking for volunteers to fill sandbags.

Members of the public wanting to check on victims of the St George floods can ring 1800 100 188.

Upstream, an unprecedented 320,000 megalitres a day is being released to try to ease the pressure on the nearby Beardmore Dam.

That is expected to push the Balonne River to a record peak of 14 metres tonight.

Weather bureau spokesman Geoff Doueal says there will not be a rapid surge of water when the flood peak moves down the Balonne River towards St George tonight.

"It's not a big rush of water - it just gradually rises and floats, but being a flat peak also means it takes a long time for the water to go away," he said.

"They were talking about some of these rivers in Queensland are still going to be in flood for the week coming and perhaps the week after as well."

The Balonne Council is urging residents to drive cautiously through flooded streets to try to limit the water damage to homes.

Balonne Mayor Donna Stewart says they have a battle plan.

"There is also indications it will come back round from the back of the town," she said.

"Ironically most of the homes that are sitting along the frontage of the river will be high and dry."

Most shops did not open today but hardware store manger Helen Wippel says people are still keen to get emergency supplies.

"A lot of supplies of torches, torch batteries, kerosene, lamps, a lot of people wanted swags," she said.

Meanwhile outside Charleville in the south-west, the Warrego River is continuing to fall but the floodwaters are moving downstream towards Cunnamulla and are expected to reach 10 metres early next week, slightly higher than the 2008 flood.

Authorities will carry out food drops today to several regional centres, including Charleville, Quilpie and Cunnamulla.

Floodwaters at nearby Bollon should be starting to ease, but Dirranbandi residents can expect major flooding early next week.

Supplies are running low in the south-west border town of Hungerford, which has been cut off since heavy rain in January.

Hungerford publican Peter Young says the seven residents in town have been sandbagging their houses and moving livestock to higher ground.

"Properties on the river are all organised - they've got their stock away, they're all prepared," he said.

"But there's only a couple of houses with levee banks around them and it all depends how high and if you get any more rain when the peaks there - that's when there could be trouble."

The clean-up is gathering pace at Charleville, where Mayor Mark O'Brien says everyone is helping out.

"We've got lots of agencies here - SES, Red Cross, I think the Salvos arrived in the morning - so all those agencies have kicked in now," he said.

Bradley's Gully, which runs through the centre of Charleville, dropped about half-a-metre overnight.

After remaining steady for most of yesterday, Bradley's Gully fell to about 1.2 metres, revealing more debris from the flood.

Wheelie bins, toys and logs are lying along the side of the gully and fences are choked with grass.

Water and mud still surrounds many of the damaged homes.

The SES, fire crews and council workers are helping residents with the mammoth task of hosing out the mud and debris from their homes.

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) spokesman Bob Bundy says 65 extra SES workers from Ipswich and the Gold Coast arrived late last night.

"We had to get them to drive because they needed the vehicles here as much as anything - there's a shortage of vehicles around the place," he said.

A unit block was inundated twice this week.

It houses about 100 Vietnamese people, many of whom work at a local abattoir.

Mayor Mark O'Brien says an interpreter has been flown in to help.

"I want him to work directly with the Vietnamese community so that they understand what services are available to them in the repair," he said.

There is also concern about rising flood waters in central Queensland.

The weather bureau says there has been heavy rain in the Wide Bay and South Burnett regions in central Queensland overnight.

Up to 70 residents in the town of Theodore on the Dawson River and in Taroom, west of Bundaberg, may have to be evacuated over the next 24 hours.

Queensland Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts says authorities are also monitoring the emerging flood threat in central regions.

"There's more on the horizon in the next couple of days in other parts of Queensland," he said.
The clean-up is also continuing at Roma in southern inland Queensland .

A heavy downpour overnight contributed to more localised flooding in Roma.

Some roads, pathways and parks in the southern inland town were once again under water this morning but no homes appear to be threatened at this stage.

- Reporting by Kerrin Binnie, Fidelis Rego, Tom Forbes and Emma Pollard

- ABC
Massive hailstones pound Melbourne
Saturday March 6, 2010 - 15:34 EDT

Severe thunderstorms have hit Melbourne as parts of Victoria are lashed by strong winds and large hail stones.

Hailstones the size of golf balls have hit the suburb of Melton, in Melbourne's west, as a line of storms moved through western Victoria.

Winds of more 100 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Melbourne Airport while nearly 40 millimetres of rain fell at Rockbank, west of Melbourne.

A warning has been issued for flash flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology says the storms will continue through to the evening and heavy rain is likely.

- ABC
Monsoon wavering

The tropics are sitting high and mainly dry, as another dry patch looms, soon after long break in February.

During February, the monsoon weakened and left the Top End and the rest of the tropics sitting with an average 20-30% deficit from the monthly mean. However, some places, including Darwin, did manage to creep above average (436mm) as the monsoon rallied at the end of the month.

As is typical, the wet season has seen its ups and downs as fluctuations in the monsoon have ebbed and flowed. Although, with only a month or two left, this one is looking on the drier side of the norm.

Of particular note is the thankful lack of cyclones, helped in part by the large break in the monsoon during February (2006 - the last cyclone-free February). There have also been links with lower cyclone activity and this summer's El Nino event.

Over the next few days the monsoon is showing more signs of weakness. The Inter Tropical Conversion Zone (monsoonal trough) has moved north and storm and shower activity over our tropics will become limited during the weekend.

With a couple of months left of the wet season though, there is still plenty of time for the heavens to make amends.

- Weatherzone
if this is right still a long long long way a way but i have been noteding for the past few mode runs that may be this may be the snow season is ending for the USA and the rainy season is on its way all so it looks like vary warm air

Link
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Inner, South East, Eastern, Northern, Outer East and parts of the Western, Mornington Peninsula, Port Phillip and Western Port Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 3:34 pm Saturday, 6 March 2010.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:35 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Dandenong, Glen Waverley, Pakenham and Ringwood. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect South Pakenham, the area east of Mt Dandenong, the area east of Pakenham and the area northeast of Pakenham by 4:05 pm.

Other severe thunderstorms were located near Hurstbridge, the area north of Mt Macedon, the area northeast of Gisborne and the area west of Kilmore. They are forecast to affect Lilydale, Yarra Glen, the area east of Sunbury and the area west of Whittlesea by 4:05 pm and Craigieburn, Greensborough, Preston and Whittlesea by 4:35 pm.

Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.

Reports of hail between 2cm and 5cm have reported from these thunderstorms in several suburbs including North Melbourne, Ascot Vale, Heathmont and Melton. Hail as big as 10cm has recently been reported in Ferntree Gully.
Wind gusts to around 100 km/hr have been recorded at Melbourne Airport.
Significant rainfall totals have been recorded in 15 to 30 minutes periods, including;
46mm at Maribyrnong
43mm at Rockbank,
40mm at Melton
33mm at Deer Park
32mm at Keilor

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.



Melbourne RADAR
183. xcool
buzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT
... Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 5 am akst Saturday for
south of Ninilchik...

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 5 am akst Saturday.

A strong low will move up Cook Inlet tonight. Cold air on the backside of
this low will produce strong westerly winds along with moderate
snow showers south of Ninilchik. The resultant snow and blowing
snow will reduce visibilities to one quarter mile or less at times
beginning this evening. Conditions will slowly improve Saturday
morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to white-out
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. All travel and
outdoor activity is strongly discouraged.
Levi -- Look what you did while hunkering down during a blizzard... New color and visual effects! :)
Hailstorm blankets Melbourne like snow

HAIL has blanketed Melbourne like snow as a severe thunderstorm ripped through the city, forcing the cancellation of horse racing and sporting events.

Nineteen millimetres(0.74") of rain bucketed down over the city in less than 18 minutes this afternoon, the weather bureau said.

The huge storm cell, which hit about 2.40pm (AEDT), resulted in a total of 26 millimetres(1.02") of rain in Melbourne in less an hour, bringing emergency services to a grinding halt as reports of flooding came in from across the city.

"It was a very dangerous thunderstorm," said the bureau's senior forecaster Richard Carlyon.

"We don't often see storm cells like that."

Hail pummelled city streets and brought traffic to a standstill, with some residents reporting hail stones as big as 5cm/2 inches.

The storm forced the cancellation of the NAB Cup footy game between Brisbane and Geelong.

Flemington's Super Saturday races were also postponed as rain poured down the stairs at the grandstand like a waterfall.

"It was very dark and all of a sudden it was like a hurricane or a howling wind came through," said Josh Bell, who was in the member's grandstand when the storm hit.

"Marble sized hail stones came down for about 10 minutes.

"The track was covered in hail. It was all white. It looked like it had snowed."

The rain continued for about 30 minutes, overpowering the sewerage system and forcing the water down the grandstand's public stairs.

"One of our concerns is there's another one (storm) on the way and at the moment the track's just not up to safe racing," Racing Victoria's chief steward Terry Bailey told Channel 7 after the race was rescheduled to next weekend.

The weather bureau is forecasting further storms to strike the city in the coming hours.

The State Emergency Service has been swamped with calls, primarily from the city's western suburbs.


These pics are all from Melbourne CBD.
















Perth records longest heatwave since 1999
Perth's scorching summer is continuing to rewrite the record books, with the city today posting its longest heatwave in 10 years.

The official temperature in Perth topped 35C shortly after 11am, taking the number of consecutive days in which the maximum has reached at least 35C to seven.

It is the longest run of 35C-plus days since a heatwave struck the city between December 31, 1999 and January 6, 2000.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, a heatwave in Perth is defined as three consecutive days of maximum temperatures of 35C or higher.

Since February 24, Perth has recorded maximum temperatures of 38.7C, 41.5C, 37.6C, 37.9C, 36.4C, 39.1C and 35.3C.

The heatwave coincides with a near-record dry start to the calendar year, during which only 0.2mm of rain has fallen in the official gauge at Mt Lawley on one day.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/6875641/perth-records-longest-heatwave-since-1999/

Odd weather in australia ...
186 Aussie...
last photo


one of my standard lines is:
"The only place ice belongs, is in your drink!"

...I guess I could amend that to say "...in your drink, or chilling yer beer!"

Good on ya AussieStorm,
a fine example of what to do when ice falls from the sky.

CRS
Good evening Aussie. Good example of recycling.lol
The temperature in the U.S. and Florida, March 6, 2010 at 6 am (3 maps)
Link


this is crazy yesterdays low was 27.3 and today was 28.2.wheres all the warm air w c fl.
Ike send me one of those lakes. lol
Morning Aussie, I heard awhile back you were saying how dry it was.careful what you wish for. great pics.
...history, the temperature in the United States on Jan. 9, 2010 at 8 am (2 maps)
Link
Notes from the latest NCEP Synergy Meeting:

Hurricane Runs
A fifth computer slot has been allotted for HWRF/GFDL runs.

GFS
RFCs are in place for the next major GFS implementation. This implementation is planned for May 2010 and includes:

-improvements to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations.
-increase in resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).
-replacement of shortwave radiation from NASA based version with random cloud overlap to AER based RRTM with maximum/random cloud overlap.
-inclusion of vertical advection of moisture, ozone and cloud condensate based on positive definite advection scheme.
-changes are also made to boundary layer scheme and gravity wave drag.
-3 hourly data will extend to F192
-High resolution data will extend from F180 to F192.
-Maximum wind gusts variable added.

Testing shows a dramatic reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as “precip bombs” or “grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS. Tropical cyclone tracks and intensity have also shown improvement.
Hey people! Is anyone else on? Is this supposed to be a South Atlantic or a North Atlantic thing?
Quoting cg2916:
Hey people! Is anyone else on? Is this supposed to be a South Atlantic or a North Atlantic thing?


South Atlantic, off the East coast of Brazil, near 18N latitude. On the satellite picture, it really doesn't look like very much at the moment!
Interesting item up for discussion at next weeks WMO Region IV Hurricane Conference:


Item 4 RSMC Miami
Title: Replace backup Tropical Cyclone “Greek Alphabet” Name List with Secondary Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Name List

DISCUSSION: Since 1953, RSMC Miami has utilized a naming protocol for Atlantic tropical cyclones that use commonly known, short, distinctive names understood by the general public and media. The name lists, which have been agreed upon at international meetings of the WMO, have a French, Spanish, Dutch and English due to the geographical coverage of the storms throughout the Atlantic and Caribbean.

If a name is retired, it can be easily replaced with another common name that is understood and well known throughout the tropical basin.

However, if the primary name list is exhausted, as it was in 2005, NHC ceases the simple and well understood naming protocol and resorts to use of the less understood and inconsistent Greek Alphabet as the backup list. Feedback received from the general public, media and EM community about the practice of using the Greek Alphabet for naming tropical cyclones was generally unfavorable with comments such as “ludicrous,” “idiotic” to “ridiculous.”

The use of the Greek Alphabet as a backup list to the primary list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names has several disadvantages:

● Generally unknown and confusing to the public.
● Inconsistent with the standard naming convention used for tropical cyclones.
● If a Greek letter has to be retired, it cannot be replaced.
● Defeats the purpose of using commonly known, short distinctive names understood by
the public and media (ex: The Greek Alphabet jumps from a “B” storm to a “G” storm
then back to a “D” storm. If you expect an “F” storm instead you will jump to “Z”).



RECOMMENDATION: A logical solution to this dilemma is to develop a secondary name list, utilizing conventions of the primary name list, that could be placed into service if the primary Atlantic Cyclone name list is exhausted. Named storms from the secondary or alternate list that require retirement could easily be replenished based on recommendations from the WMO.

ACTION: NHC did not accepted but will bring forward to IHC and WMO RA-IV meeting.


SOME TIMES i WISH THAT IT WOULD BE A STRONDER WARM CORE
hello anyone here this morning
Morning Keeper..

This poor, poor buoy.



Rescue is near for the 18,000 pound buoy blown ashore on Carolina Beach more than a month ago.
Quoting Skyepony:
Morning Keeper..

This poor, poor buoy.



Rescue is near for the 18,000 pound buoy blown ashore on Carolina Beach more than a month ago.


somebody better not be wating on info from that one
just messin around with this html code there is lots ya can do
This is so unusual.. A winter with hardly no polar vortex..

The daily geopotential height anomalies at 17 pressure levels are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated, and they are normalized by standard deviation using 1979-2000 base period. The anomalies are calculated by subtracting 1979-2000 daily climatology, and then averaged over the polar cap poleward of 65N.

The blue (red) colors represent a strong (weak) polar vortex. The black solid lines show the zero anomalies.
Dr Masters put up a new blog thread.
Keeper~ I was amazed how quick they got the one off Kennedy Space Center fixed, like a week or so.
I don't know if anybody seen this

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_sl802010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201003052133
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TEST, SL, Q, , , , , 80, 2010, TD, O, 2010030518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , SL802010
SL, 80, 2010030500, , BEST, 0, 181S, 253W, 20, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SL, 80, 2010030506, , BEST, 0, 187S, 270W, 20, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SL, 80, 2010030512, , BEST, 0, 194S, 284W, 20, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
SL, 80, 2010030518, , BEST, 0, 200S, 300W, 20, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, Q, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,

SL STANDS FOR SOUTH ATLANTIC
What's up with the blog?