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A 50-Day Heat Wave Forecast, and the Future of Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction

By: Bob Henson 6:50 PM GMT on March 29, 2016

For those of us interested in the future of long-range weather forecasting, two developments this week pair very nicely. A paper published on Monday online in the journal Nature Geoscience shows how heat waves across the midwestern and eastern U.S. may be predictable with some skill as far as 50 days out. On its heels is the Tuesday release of a report from the U.S. National Academies, Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. The report argues that there is great potential to improve the quality and value of forecasts in the two-week to 12-month range, if the necessary resources can be marshaled--and if researchers can develop and tailor products designed to fit the needs of users.

The Pacific Extreme Pattern: A prelude to big heat in the central and eastern U.S.
The paper in Nature Geoscience--led by Karen McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research--finds that a particular arrangement of sea surface temperature (SST) can take shape across the North Pacific weeks ahead of the advent of widespread summer heat over much of the central and eastern U.S. This oceanic configuration, dubbed the Pacific Extreme Pattern (PEP), features colder-than-usual SSTs along the west coast of North America, with a warmer-than-usual area north of Hawaii and another cold anomaly toward Japan (Figure 1).

The PEP bears some of the hallmarks of the negative (cold) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is known to raise the odds of drought and heat across parts of the United States. However, the PDO and PEP are separate beasts, according to McKinnon. “PEP has a smaller spatial scale and varies more within a season than the PDO,” said McKinnon in an email. “While in some cases SST anomalies may project similarly onto both patterns, we do not believe that they are generally the same phenomenon.”


Figure 1. Colored areas show anomalies (departures from average) in sea surface temperature associated with the Pacific Extreme Pattern (PEP) at the 40-day lead time, when it would suggest an enhanced risk of heat 40 days later over the central and eastern U.S. Overlaid in dashed and solid black contours are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). While a negative PDO is defined by a large warm anomaly that spans most of the North Pacific (solid contours), with a cold tongue near the western U.S. (dashed contours), the PEP has a large cold anomaly in the western part of the ocean basin (blue colors), a smaller warm anomaly in the middle part of the basin, and then a second cold anomaly in the eastern part of the basin. Image credit: Karen McKinnon, NCAR.


Figure 2. The five clusters of stations across the U.S. identified as tending to experience hot days at the same time. The cluster examined in this study (blue stations] covers much of the central and eastern U.S. Image credit: Fig. S1(a) from K.A. McKinnon et al., Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures, published online on March 28, 2016, in Nature Geoscience.


By exploring where unusually hot U.S. summer temperatures tend to cluster, the study team decided to focus on a large and important region extending from the Central Plains and encompassing most of the nation east of the Mississippi River and north of Florida (see Figure 2). As the PEP evolves in a sequence of steps identified by the authors, it tends to generate high pressure off the West Coast and, further downstream, dry, hot weather over the central and eastern U.S. On a regional basis, the paper defines a hot day as one where at least 5% of the study area (at least 80 of 1613 weather stations) experiences a high of at least 6.5°C (11.7°F) above average (one standard deviation). Using this yardstick, the evolution of the PEP provides significant skill at predicting the timing of hot days for the region as a whole up to 50 days in advance. Even at the individual-station level, the PEP demonstrates significant skill at about half of all locations out to 40 days, particularly across the Mississippi Valley.


Figure 3. SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean 50 days in advance of June 29, 2012. The pattern inside the green box best matches the early stage of the Pacific Extreme Pattern, indicating that there would be an increase in the odds of a heat wave in the eastern half of the United States at the end of June. Temperatures on June 29 (bottom) largely bore out the forecast, with readings above 100°F covering much of the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. Image credit: Karen McKinnon, NCAR.


Hints in May of heat in July
The authors make their case further through a retroactive “hindcast” of the scorching U.S. summer of 2012, which produced record heat and grinding drought across much of the study domain. The three biggest multi-day summer heat spikes of 2012 began on June 25, July 16, and 29 July. The state of the PEP on May 15 corresponded to a more-than-threefold increase in the likelihood of hot days 40 days later (June 24). At the end of May, the PEP indicated even stronger 40-day odds for a hot period around July 9.

Clearly, the PEP is not a perfect predictor, but it may serve as an useful new avenue toward probabilistic heat and drought forecasts over a key part of the U.S., with more specific timing than now offered by today’s leading techniques. “The Pacific Extreme Pattern appears to provide a cohesive framework for improving seasonal prediction of summer precipitation deficits and high temperature anomalies in the eastern U.S.” the paper asserts. “The identification of predictive skill at a seven-week lead time is an important advance over current seasonal forecast models that tend to under-predict the probability of extremes.” It’s possible that the PEP is associated with one or more factors that also influence eastern U.S. heat and dryness. The authors add that “it would be useful to better determine whether the ocean forces, feed backs on, or simply acts as a passive recorder of atmospheric anomalies in the months preceding hot weather.”

Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company, said: “These results confirm the importance of North Pacific SST patterns in modulating summer temperature patterns over the US on seasonal time scales, and for the first time suggest predictability of extreme heat events on sub-seasonal time scales.  There is now the potential for the addition of another useful statistical forecasting technique to accompany dynamical model output in the sub-seasonal forecaster's toolbox.” Crawford, whose TWC Energy group carries out seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction for a range of customers, told me he’s being “peppered with client questions/comments” about the paper.

Going operational (experimentally)
We’ll soon find out how well this new technique works in real time. Based on daily PEP calculations, McKinnon and colleagues are planning to make predictions for this summer, beginning in early May. These forecasts will be available through a link to be posted at McKinnon’s website. “Our hope is that these can be used directly by, e.g., city leaders to ensure that enough cooling rooms are available for those without air conditioning if there are increased odds of a heat wave, and utility companies who may want to make sure they have sufficient power to bring online in case of spikes in electricity demand,” McKinnon told me. “We also hope to interface with operational and seasonal forecasters to see if the information from PEP could complement that provided by the current dynamical models.”


Figure 4. Leniel Fields of K&K Maintenance wipes his face in the heat as he trims and maintains the grounds at the Franklin School Apartments near downtown St. Louis on July 23, 2012. The city hit 106°F that day, with temperatures remaining above 80°F at night for three consecutive days. Image credit: AP Photo/St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Erik M. Lunsford.

A comprehensive strategy for improving forecasts up to a year out
The PEP study is one step in a direction encouraged by the National Academies report released on Tuesday. This report serves as an update to a similarly themed 2010 study, Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, this time dropping the multi-year component and focusing on the interval from two weeks to 12 months in advance, a period dubbed S2S (seasonal to subseasonal). Another new tack is broadening the kinds of phenomena that might be predicted, encompassing extreme weather events such as the heat waves analyzed in the new paper above. The study examines recent progress in using such phenomena as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation as forecasting tools, along with such efforts as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. “However, an associated U.S. national research agenda aimed at strengthening the contributions of S2S forecasts to public and private activities has not yet emerged,” the report noted.

The study’s vision--that “S2S forecasts will be as widely used a decade from now as weather forecasts are today”--includes 16 recommendations to get us there, as well as four research strategies:

• Engage users in the process of developing S2S forecast products
• Increase S2S forecast skill
• Improve prediction of extreme and disruptive events and consequences of unanticipated forcing events
• Include more components of the Earth system in S2S forecast models

“It is easy to envision the potential value of high-quality predictions two weeks to 12 months ahead for any number of industries--for example, energy, water resource management, and agriculture,” noted committee chair Raymond Ban (Ban and Associates) in the report’s preface. “Even if such information never matches the level of confidence associated with tomorrow’s weather forecast, it could still be used by individuals, businesses, and governments to plan and make a large array of important decisions.”


Figure 5. Severe-weather risk areas for Wednesday (left) and Thursday (right), March 30 and 31, 2016, as designated by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center on Tuesday morning, March 29.

Tornadoes may spin up across Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday
We’ll be back with a new post by Thursday at the latest. We’re also keeping an eye on a fairly classic set-up for early-spring severe weather in the nation’s midsection, especially from around Kansas City to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. At midday Tuesday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center was calling for a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday over much of the southern and central Great Plains, shifting on Thursday into the central Gulf Coast area. The chance of a major tornado outbreak did not appear large, given the moderate amounts of instability expected and a tendency toward southwest winds at most levels, which would tend to reduce vertical wind shear. Early-morning storms on Wednesday may also cut back on daytime heating. Still, it’s late March, and all of the ingredients should be present for the full gamut of severe weather, including tornadoes in some areas. SPC noted in its Tuesday update that the risk for Wednesday could be upgraded in subsequent outlooks.

Bob Henson


Long-Range Forecasting Extreme Weather Heat Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!



Direct Hit! Sarasota and Charlotte Counties!
Im just watching and waiting for the complex of storms in the Gulf to A) dissipate just before it reaches me in Sanford or B) slide just to the south......This seems to be the MO of these systems lately
I'm finally getting some action in my area. During a news break NBC-2 showed their radar and it had two areas of rotation with the line just off shore.
Quoting 2. sanflee76:

Im just watching and waiting for the complex of storms in the Gulf to A) dissipate just before it reaches me in Sanford or B) slide just to the south......This seems to be the MO of these systems lately


I hate when that happens. Watching the rain, sitting there with fingers crossed wanting it to come down on you to only see it fall apart or skirt your location. Kind of the feeling I got watching Don a few years back ...wanting rain so badly only to see it get the life sucked out of it
Heavy rain and lots of lightning close by in Boca Raton. There was hail west of my location earlier.
Lets try and get the 3 day forecast better for hurricanes first, or maybe the daily forecast before we worry about 50 day forecast.
Nit Nit Nit

The standard deviation of summer maximum daily high temperatures east of the Rockies is MUCH MUCH less than 6C. It's order 3-5F
Quoting 10. justmehouston:



I hate when that happens. Watching the rain, sitting there with fingers crossed wanting it to come down on you to only see it fall apart or skirt your location. Kind of the feeling I got watching Don a few years back ...wanting rain so badly only to see it get the life sucked out of it


Cumulonimbus-missingus is one of the most common summer cloud formations
Quoting 12. NativeSun:

Lets try and get the 3 day forecast better for hurricanes first, or maybe the daily forecast before we worry about 50 day forecast.


Ignoring the fact that discoveries don't happen off of a priority list...... why? Heat waves are the deadliest weather events.... this seems like it would be a "priority".
62 mph wind gust was reported in Cape Coral with many reports of gusts in the 50 -60 mph range (source NBC-2 news).
Local news has been showing images of wind damage in the Cape.

At my location my peak gust was 42 mph at 3:49 pm. And I got whiplash to my back (it really hurts) from a lightning bolt that exploded right in front of the house while I was looking out the garaged door at the storm. I wanted to video tape the storm, but that lightning bolt stopped that.
Thanks Mr Henson for the interesting report, good to have a new teleconection in our forecasting arsenal.
Pretty cool image posted to NBC of the squall line moving into S.W. Florida a little earlier.
Quoting 19. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty cool image posted to NBC of the squall line moving into S.W. Florida a little earlier.

nice shot
Quoting 17. Grothar:


angry sky day and tomorrow s cen conus
On the topic of forecast, my forecast is that there's a 50% chance that Friday's blog article will relate to the new blog name, if there's a blog article posted on that day.
Quoting 23. DCSwithunderscores:

On the topic of forecast, my forecast is that there's a 50% chance that Friday's blog article will relate to the new blog name, if there's a blog article posted on that day.
always an april fools day double hitter blog we get the not so real blog then a real blog
nice setup for Thursday too march roars out

Quoting 15. OKsky:



Ignoring the fact that discoveries don't happen off of a priority list...... why? Heat waves are the deadliest weather events.... this seems like it would be a "priority".
I was being sarcastic, they can barely forecast on a daily basis, much less 50 days. The technology is not their and won't be their for a long time.
Quoting 12. NativeSun:

Lets try and get the 3 day forecast better for hurricanes first, or maybe the daily forecast before we worry about 50 day forecast.


These are not mutually exclusive goals. Do you think there is only 1 researcher / research team that must decide between a 3 day hurricane forecast and developing a method to predict heat waves up to 50 days in advance?
   Thanks for the Interesting Post Mr. Henson....
Quoting 27. NativeSun:

I was being sarcastic, they can barely forecast on a daily basis, much less 50 days. The technology is not their and won't be their for a long time.


Well Said and "Very True"

Taco :o)
raining buckets in Lauderdale by the sea
Quoting 19. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty cool image posted to NBC of the squall line moving into S.W. Florida a little earlier.



Turned out to be a bit of a dud for us in Northern Pinellas. I thought we might get some good storms today and all we got was less than .25".
A couple tornados confirmed in Grand Cayman
Quoting 34. wunderkidcayman:

A couple tornados confirmed in Grand Cayman


Land forming or start out as waterspouts?
Quoting 10. justmehouston:



I hate when that happens. Watching the rain, sitting there with fingers crossed wanting it to come down on you to only see it fall apart or skirt your location. Kind of the feeling I got watching Don a few years back ...wanting rain so badly only to see it get the life sucked out of it


That was a soul-sucking experience, given the searing heat and drought we Texans were experiencing at the time. I have shared that with others - there are some youtube videos out there with the time-lapse satellite views of Don's quick death. So sad. It's like millions of wretched dry Texans were excitedly and anxiously hoping for a drop, standing with their heads thrown back and mouths agape for some heavenly moisture, only to have all hope vanquished by high pressure and bone-dry air. I'll never forget it, as I was following it on this very site.
Anyone know of a historical model archive site that shows the 500mb(US) weather pattern like say Nov. 1997? I thought E Wall had one but I can't find it. Thanks.
Quoting 27. NativeSun:

I was being sarcastic, they can barely forecast on a daily basis, much less 50 days. The technology is not their and won't be their for a long time.


Do you have insight about the publication or are you just saying stuff? Dont get me wrong... I am all about skeptical minded people as long as there is a reason behind their skepticism. The impression I get from following this blog for the last few months with all the El Nino stuff is that sst oscillations do cause fairly predictable weather patterns at least in broad strokes... is this paper just not more of that?
The top attorneys from Massachusetts and the U.S. Virgin Islands said on Tuesday they will investigate whether Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) misled investors and the public about the risks of climate change.

Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey and Virgin Islands Attorney General Claude Earl Walker announced their probes at a news conference in New York, flanked by New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and top attorneys from other states.

They said their probes into Exxon will be similar to ones launched by New York and California.


Link
I heard someone say that the fixed CFS is still showing El Nino conditions in the fall. Is this correct?
Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:

I heard someone say that the fixed CFS is still showing El Nino conditions in the fall. Is this correct?


It indeed has been fixed but I don't think the new data has been filtered into the model yet
Quoting 35. Bucsboltsfan:



Land forming or start out as waterspouts?


That information is unavailable at this time
Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:

I heard someone say that the fixed CFS is still showing El Nino conditions in the fall. Is this correct?
The CFS showing a La nina by AS time.
Quoting 34. wunderkidcayman:

A couple tornados confirmed in Grand Cayman
Can you please link the report or pics? thanks.
Quoting 33. Bucsboltsfan:



Turned out to be a bit of a dud for us in Northern Pinellas. I thought we might get some good storms today and all we got was less than .25".


We officially received .47" here, but other locations in the area saw over 1.0" or so. The line was moving pretty fast so the rain totals weren't that high.

The heaviest rain totals came from individual cells that formed out a head of the main squall line. 3.77" reported in Coral Springs and 3.71" in Boca Raton on Florida's east coast.
Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:



That information is unavailable at this time


I checked the local news and weather reports and couldn't find anything. Got any links?
Checked the Cayman Island weather page...nothing about tornados on there.It says Sunny with over cast instead with a high of 84 currently.
Interesting, I read about using Pacific SST's to forecast heat waves yesterday, which was when it was published. Deja vu.
ok
Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:

I heard someone say that the fixed CFS is still showing El Nino conditions in the fall. Is this correct?

what ???
Quoting 46. Bucsboltsfan:



I checked the local news and weather reports and couldn't find anything. Got any links?


Local news no longer available
Newspaper website don't really do weather
Go on the WU Obs for Owen Robert Grand Cayman history
It's recorded
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

Checked the Cayman Island weather page...nothing about tornados on there.It says Sunny with over cast instead with a high of 84 currently.


Incorrect it's been mostly cloudy becoming cloudy since 10am today
3 times its been recorded first was at 12 the last was at 3pm
52. vis0

Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

always an april fools day double hitter blog we get the not so real blog then a real blog
there is one exception, if serious weather hits on the day/night before then wait till Sunday if its a calm day. If severe happens on Thursday, Friday we might see ~"Due to the seriousness of yesterdays weather today's blogbyte on an important topic will be posted on Sunday, WxPermitting." Lets hope there is noting serious in the next days BUT EQUALLY important that all are prepared for anything nature deals, have NOAA RADIO and your brain on alert.
hmm

hmm ----> MAY
The errors may have been fixed but the CFS still doesn't seem to be working right. It shows a warm North Atlantic by July, which I highly doubt will happen. It also shows a less than ideal SST profile for Atlantic hurricanes.
Quoting 55. HurricaneFan:

The errors may have been fixed but the CFS still doesn't seem to be working right. It shows a warm North Atlantic by July, which I highly doubt will happen. It also shows a less than ideal SST profile for Atlantic hurricanes.

Wow...this almost looks +AMO
Quoting 55. HurricaneFan:

The errors may have been fixed but the CFS still doesn't seem to be working right. It shows a warm North Atlantic by July, which I highly doubt will happen. It also shows a less than ideal SST profile for Atlantic hurricanes.

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits
I plotted only single CFS runs today due to bugfix - will go back to 12-run averages tonight. Will take 3 days to purge bad data entirely
Quoting 58. JRRP7:


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3 minHace 3 minutos Ver traducción
I plotted only single CFS runs today due to bugfix - will go back to 12-run averages tonight. Will take 3 days to purge bad data entirely

That makes sense. The CFS still seems to be malfunctioning, and that is why.
Quoting 54. Gearsts:

hmm ----> MAY



Yes I can see this happening

Quoting 57. HurricaneFan:


Wow...this almost looks +AMO


Yes that is +AMO

Quoting 54. Gearsts:

hmm ----> MAY


that is almost next month

ghostbusters!!!!!!
Can ya hear the Thunder, Ya better run, ya better take cover.... no rain yet....

Quoting 51. wunderkidcayman:



Local news no longer available
Newspaper website don't really do weather
Go on the WU Obs for Owen Robert Grand Cayman history
It's recorded


Incorrect it's been mostly cloudy becoming cloudy since 10am today
3 times its been recorded first was at 12 the last was at 3pm



Cayman news doesn't do weather? Two tornadoes is a news story, not just a weather story.
Well I am certainly no expert but Saturday looks to have some potential of a fast moving rain/snow squall along a strong cold front especially from the Southern Great Lakes into the northeast. Front seems to race through at 50+ mph. Of course I'm no expert but high winds definitely look like a decent threat if this verifies given the early April sun angle to steepen low level lapse rates, steep 850-700 mb lapse rates of 8C/km and winds in the 850-700 mb level of 60-75+ knots. Some of that wind energy may come down to the surface given the lapse rates.



Or I'm just becoming way too passionate over a system still 4 days out and probably making a fool of myself by not accounting for other factors. Oh well. 
Anyways here is Saturday:



Just realized that today is my three year anniversary here... Time sure does fly these days.
CFSv2 for September shows robust La Nina but not so warm MDR/Caribbean.

Quoting 51. wunderkidcayman:



Local news no longer available
Newspaper website don't really do weather
Go on the WU Obs for Owen Robert Grand Cayman history
It's recorded


Incorrect it's been mostly cloudy becoming cloudy since 10am today
3 times its been recorded first was at 12 the last was at 3pm

Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

Checked the Cayman Island weather page...nothing about tornados on there.It says Sunny with over cast instead with a high of 84 currently.


Lol, it says rain, tornado with max winds of 9mph. That's not strong enough to blow a dead leaf off a tree.
Quoting 67. Tropicsweatherpr:

CFSv2 for September shows robust La Nina but not so warm MDR/Caribbean.


Still showing cold south Africa.
Quoting 71. Gearsts:

Still showing cold south Africa.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
@TropicalTidbits fascinating that the shear differences aren't as dramatic as I would guessed-- maybe need more runs to make it clear

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
@EricBlake12 Yeah I wouldn't put much stock in one run aside from ENSO. The Indian monsoon onset is all weird on this run too.
Bonnie is that you?
Quoting 60. wunderkidcayman:



Yes I can see this happening



Yes that is +AMO




This La Nina, warm AMO setup could mean a quite active season...but I'm skeptical that that the north Atlantic will warm up that much by hurricane season. If a warm AMO setup starts to take hold again, it could mean that active Atlantic seasons could return.
Warm AMO more like this.
Quoting 49. JRRP7:

ok



Warm AMO ? Well... we will see..
Quoting 71. Gearsts:

Still showing cold south Africa.


Based in what I've seen until this moment ,this season will not be a super active season, but will not be quiet neither, I expect a slightly above average hurricane season. Let's see how the things evolve in the next two months.
And if La nina stays until late 2017, 2017 could be super active.

Quoting 64. Bucsboltsfan:



Cayman news doesn't do weather? Two tornadoes is a news story, not just a weather story.


The main news TV/Internet provider (Cayman 27) no longer has a website or Apple/Android App and is doing so poor with news since company was sold and bought

The main newspaper/internet provider (Cayman Compass) no longer carries their weather page however the old one still updates current conditions however no longer updates past conditions and weather news segment

Also wanna point point to WX obs for MWCR or Owen Roberts International Airport on weather.noaa.gov are also available and also captured the event

Anyway whatever happened has happened and gone left us that's behind us now

Let's get on to what's happening and what's gonna happen
Quoting 78. stormchaser19:



Based in what I've seen until this moment ,this season will not be a super active season, but will not be quiet neither, I expect a slightly above average hurricane season. Let's see how the things evolve in the next two months.
And if La nina stays until late 2017, 2017 could be super active.



I have a feeling 2017 could have 20 named storms. But 2016 will likely have somewhere around 15. I'm still thinking a season of around 16/7/3.
Quoting 78. stormchaser19:



Based in what I've seen until this moment ,this season will not be a super active season, but will not be quiet neither, I expect a slightly above average hurricane season. Let's see how the things evolve in the next two months.
And if La nina stays until late 2017, 2017 could be super active.




I mean look at the Euro march prediction last year

And this year march prediction


As you can see this year doesn't looks bad specially MRD, looks normal to slightly wet.
Quoting 62. JRRP7:


ghostbusters!!!!!!


It would be real nice to see a april TC moving over the N Leewards !!
Quoting 33. Bucsboltsfan:



Turned out to be a bit of a dud for us in Northern Pinellas. I thought we might get some good storms today and all we got was less than .25".


Yeah, it went from a complex dumping 2-4 inches estimates in the gulf, to very little by the time it reached most of the coast line. This comes as a surprise given upper support, but a closer look reveals the upper disturbance was moving fast, but the boundary layer steering flow was in phase at all. The combination of weak boundary layer steering flow and still relatively cool shelf waters allowed the convection to fall part before reaching the coast in most areas. Though a few strong cells came onshore south of the Tampa area.

Most of the strong activity ended up being inland yet again for that reason.

A southeast flow combined with full heating and cold air aloft could lead to a few sea breeze thunderstorms on west coast FL areas, and the ones that form could be very strong with hail and wind potential due to cold anomalies aloft.
It's looking increasingly likely that we will have a La Nina. I'd say there is at least a 70% chance.
Quoting 77. CaribBoy:



Warm AMO ? Well... we will see..

that forecast looks like 2007
La Nina could actually mean we get a cold winter up here. That would be a switch from the past few years of very warm (for here) winters.
Quoting 6. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Hey, I was just about to post that myself, KEEPEROFTHEGATE. Nice to see the worst strongest storms seem to be to the North and northeast of Houston. Or am I reading that thing right? Whatchoo think, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
  Lots of Thunder and Lightning and the end result was a Monster(sic) Storm and a whole .05 in of Rain, but it is SoCal...
To save you some time, he also recognizes KOTG for short.

Quoting 87. pureet1948:



Hey, I was just about to post that myself, KEEPEROFTHEGATE. Nice to see the worst strongest storms seem to be to the North and northeast of Houston. Or am I reading that thing right? Whatchoo think, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
Crisp 28° this morning in Acme Wa, turned into a beautiful sunny 65° today. Going to believe the sunny forcast for the next 2 days and call March's rain total at 6.15". Of course the last .85 of that fell on what was supposed to be my tree planting party, at least we had lots of good food to eat and spirits were high as Bernie crushed Hill in the caucus. He won my hippy filled precinct 75-5! Managed to get 15 trees planted when the clouds parted for a brief moment and another 30 the last couple days after work, just 35 to go.
New catalyst is three times better at splitting water

The research, published today in the journal Science, outlines a potential way to make a future generation of water-splitting catalysts from three abundant metals -- iron, cobalt and tungsten -- rather than the rare, costly metals that many of today's catalysts rely on.

"The good things about this catalyst are that it's easy to make, its production can be very easily scaled up without any super-advanced tools, it's consistent, and it's very robust," said Aleksandra Vojvodic, a SLAC staff scientist with the SUNCAT Center for Interface Science and Catalysis who led the theoretical side of the work.


Link
October's floods having impact on SC farms' production rate

Farmers lost nearly $375 million dollars in crops from the flooding; a big hit to one of South Carolina's top industries that has an estimated $41 billion impact in South Carolina each year.

Agriculture economists like Dr. Nathan Smith say nearly a third of the state's crops were lost last fall.


Link

Cities affected by flood often keep economic activity in the vulnerable areas

They may be locking in exposure to flood risk for a long time, writes a CEP team

The recent events in the British Isles are just one example of a major global problem. According to media reports collated by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, between 1985 and 2014, floods worldwide killed more than half a million people, displaced over 650 million people and caused damage in excess of $500 billion (Brakenridge, 2016).

Other datasets tell of even farther reaching impacts: according to the International Disaster Database, in 2010 alone, 178 million people were affected by floods and total losses exceeded $40 billion (Guha-Sapir et al, 2016). To these direct costs we should add longer-term costs of disruptions to schooling, increased health risks and reduced incentives to invest.

So it seems important to understand why so much is lost to floods. One might argue that the private risks of floods are balanced by the private gains from living in flood-prone areas. But in fact, flood plains tend to be overpopulated because the cost of building and maintaining flood defences is often borne by governments and not by private developers. This problem of an inadvertent subsidy to build on flood plains is made worse because the costs of flood recovery are also borne by governments and non-governmental organisations. This situation creates potential for misallocation of resources, and forces society to answer difficult distributional questions.


Link
Have to be kidding me

Extreme Weather Conditions effects U.S. cereal production – New Orleans Science Centre

The findings are based on an analysis of 2,800 weather events recorded between 1964 and 2007 in the Emergency Events Database and national production data on 16 cereal crops from 177 countries from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.
“Across the breadbaskets of North America, the crops and methods of farming are very uniform across huge areas, so if a drought hits in a way that is damaging to those crops, they will all suffer,” said lead author Corey Lesk, a recent graduate of McGill’s Department of Geography.
Farming in the developing world is more often a patchwork of different crops, grown with a variety of management practices. That way, when conditions are bad for one crop, they have others to fall back on.
“They are not putting all their eggs in one basket,” said Ramankutty.
In the West, access to crop insurance allows farmers to focus on maximizing profits, rather than diversifying for safety.
However, when drought or extreme heat hit more than one part of the western world, the results can be catastrophic, leading to shortages and instability.


Link
Good morning.

The drip,drip,drip of Nino 3.4 continues.

Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



We officially received .47" here, but other locations in the area saw over 1.0" or so. The line was moving pretty fast so the rain totals weren't that high.

The heaviest rain totals came from individual cells that formed out a head of the main squall line. 3.77" reported in Coral Springs and 3.71" in Boca Raton on Florida's east coast.
Naples received a deluge yesterday of 0.01". The big, red squall line faded away before reaching land--then restrenghtened once past us before making a run at the East Coast.

For the month, Naples has seen less than a quarter of normal rainfall...
I guess we are not completely done with our Canadian friend(the P.V.).
Should b fun to track Monday nights storm(maybe).
Im still putting my potatoes in the ground Saturday
Stay safe you guys in severe threat area today.
Dryline at I 35.
Tornadoes in the outlook... Look out ArkLaMiss?
We'll see. this can change as the day rolls on.
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A MODEST-WIDTH CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING E OF THE DRYLINE...SUGGEST THAT MID/LATE-AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT/RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONTINGENT ON THIS OCCURRING...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A PREFERRED DISCRETE MODE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DIURNAL SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR H85 FLOW TO VEER WITHIN THIS REGIME...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOCUSING EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED ALONG THE DRYLINE.

INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SVR CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL E OF THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE MASS RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WELL N OF THE REGION WILL ENCOURAGE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. AS A RESULT...EFFECTIVE SRH WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVER A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD TO THEINTERSTATE-20 CORRIDOR AND VICINITY. SUPERCELL CLUSTERS AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ALL SVR MODES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION AND VICINITY.

Tornado Outlook as issued by SPC at 0100 cdt.
Click image for complete Day 1 0100 cdt convective outlook text and graphics.
Link

Article on benefit of looong term forecasting. Wink at Scott.
The same areas that had the record rains in northern Louisiana and Arkansas just a few weeks ago is now UTG again. Looks like this is setting up to be an outbreak, with 30-60 tornadoes quite possible over the next two days. The story will be the rain, this area has been relentlessly hammered for a long time now. I worry attrition is going to lead to a national disaster of a proportion we're not really acknowledging yet. Over night may be the time we get a few strong tornadoes. This is potentially setting up to be a very dangerous next two days.
Wouldn't be shocked to see a low pressure develop northeast of the Bahamas. Looks interesting.
More rain for Louisiana and Arkansas. National disaster now aggravated big time. Rain's the story. Tornado outbreak likely over the next two days. 30-60 tornadoes likely. Some of the stronger could be tonight. Nation needs to wake up. We broke the jet stream. This record El-Nino has targeted Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi like never before.
looks as if a little piece of the front is spinning just offshore. maybe a shower coming off the ocean a bit later. e.cen.florida
the 30 day SOI value is now in neutral territory standing at -5.90
the latest updates from the aussies.......

Tropical Pacific Ocean continues towards ENSO-neutral
Issued on 29 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The decline of the 2015-16 El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Temperatures below the ocean surface have cooled steadily, with only the top 50 metres more than +1 °C warmer than normal. It is likely this is the coolest this top layer of ocean has been since January 2015. Atmospheric indicators reflect such changes in the ocean. For instance, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to weak El Niño levels. However, some indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line, have been slower to respond and still show a clear El Niño signal.
International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. For winter and spring, climate models suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely. However, the accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year is lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised.
Although the 2015–16 El Niño is weakening, it will continue to influence climate during the southern hemisphere autumn. In Australia, the breakdown of strong El Niño events has historically brought average to above average rainfall to many locations. However, northern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual.
Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.
only one of the models used by the aussie mets state la nina for june......

however august tells a much different story.....

‘Large quantities’ of plastic found in beached whales’ stomachs

Post-mortems of 13 sperm whales stranded on the North Sea coast this winter have found that their stomachs contained large quantities of plastic, including a 70 centimetre-long engine cover and the remains of a plastic bucket.

Link
Quoting 109. RobertWC:

‘Large quantities’ of plastic found in beached whales’ stomachs

Post-mortems of 13 sperm whales stranded on the North Sea coast this winter have found that their stomachs contained large quantities of plastic, including a 70 centimetre-long engine cover and the remains of a plastic bucket.

Link


I flew from Atlanta to Cancun for a wedding two years ago and was saddened by all the trash I saw in the Caribbean/Gulf from above. When we first descended below the clouds I thought the little white blips were boats, and then the amount of them grew and grew...
Thailand hit by its worst drought in decades

Thailand is in the grip of its worst drought for more than 20 years, with water levels in the country's biggest dams lower than 10 percent.

The current drought has hit the north hardest, with 22 of Thailand's 76 provinces affected.

Agriculture has been severely affected, and there are genuine fears that taps could run dry within a matter of weeks. Several major reservoirs in the country are below 50 percent of their water capacity.


Link
Vietnam hit by worst drought in nearly a century

Months of below-average rainfall have conspired to produce the worst drought in Vietnam in the best part of 100 years. It has been reported that the Mekong River is at its lowest level since 1926.

The ongoing El Nino weather pattern is thought to be the main cause of the lack of rainfall affecting the country.

Vietnam is not alone in suffering drought. Neighbouring Cambodia, and Laos, as well as Thailand and Myanmar, have been experiencing water shortages as a result of the weather phenomenon.


Link
Quoting 108. ricderr:

however august tells a much different story.....




I say transition will be a lot quicker and we will get La Niña a lot sooner
It does not take a La nina to cause havoc in the Atlantic..2004,2005,and 2008 all prove this.
Quoting 66. Tornado6042008X:

Just realized that today is my three year anniversary here... Time sure does fly these days.
Yea, will be coming up on my 3rd year here in September too.

The El Nino is no longer a strong one at this time, it is now a moderate one. Before long, it will be a weak one.
119. SLU
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 32m32 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

I love the Euro and think it will whip the "fixed" CFSV2!

Quoting 108. ricderr:

however august tells a much different story.....




But, but... The CFS suggests El Nino! Shut that down!
It's going to get really busy here again in couple days, a lot of things for me to watch. Another widespread rainfall event of 3-5 inches is expected on top of the last even of 3-5 inches less than a week ago! The combination of saturated soil and a shorter duration event could lead to flooding issues.

I picked up 4.72 from Thursday to Friday, and here in Tallahassee, this potential 3-5 inch event is expected to be mainly on just Friday, it could get ugly here...

BTW, there's also a severe threat, and trees have an easier chance of falling strong winds given the saturated soil too.
Quoting 119. SLU:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 32m32 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

I love the Euro and think it will whip the "fixed" CFSV2!


Good and informative post. ;)
123. SLU
Quoting 122. Gearsts:

Good and informative post. ;)


;)
Love?

LoL
Quoting 114. wunderkidcayman:



I say transition will be a lot quicker and we will get La Niña a lot sooner


Hey WKC, I saw the comment on weather underground reporting "tornado" and the max winds for the day were 9mph. Is there even a classification for that:)
0.18 rain over the last 72 hours at my abode in Soo Cal.
Quoting 120. Jedkins01:



But, but... The CFS suggests El Nino! Shut that down!
The CFS is fixed, it shows La Nina now.
Warm and humid day on Fort Myers Beach. Pretty decent crowd for a Wednesday (Spring Break in progress).
Quoting 129. Andrebrooks:

The CFS is fixed, it shows La Nina now.


Yes CFS is fixed but using bad data needs a few days if not weeks to filter through before proper data
Bad input bad output simple
Quoting 129. Andrebrooks:

The CFS is fixed, it shows La Nina now.
Quoting 132. wunderkidcayman:



Yes CFS is fixed but using bad data needs a few days if not weeks to filter through before proper data
Bad input bad output simple


I suspect when it's all filtered we should see a decent La Niña in the near future
134. bwi
Antarctic loss could double expected sea level rise by 2100, scientists say

By Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney March 30 at 1:44 PM

Landsat 8 natural-color mosaic of the ice cliff at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica on Jan. 9. (Knut Christianson/USGS)
This story has been updated.

Sea levels could rise nearly twice as much as previously predicted by the end of this century if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, an outcome that could devastate coastal communities around the globe, according to new research published Wednesday.

The startling findings, published in the journal Nature, paint a far grimmer picture than current consensus predictions, which have suggested that seas could rise by just under a meter at most by the year 2100. Those estimates relied on the notion that expanding ocean waters and the melting of relatively small glaciers would fuel the majority of sea level rise, rather than the massive ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
Quoting 129. Andrebrooks:

The CFS is fixed, it shows La Nina now.
He was being sarcastic.
A Class 3 (Enhanced Risk) tomorrow...






DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS MUCH OF
MS...FAR NE LA/SE AR...W TN/KY...SE IL AND SW IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO LAKE
MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO
THE MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH AND EAST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY. TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

MULTIFACETED THREAT WILL UNFOLD ON THURSDAY. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MID-MS/OH VALLEY
REGION. SPORADIC SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH BROADER AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MI S/SW TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH/SHIFT E/NE TO NEAR OH THROUGH THE
WESTERN TN VALLEY BY 18Z. AS A RESULT...RECOVERY ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR APPEARS LIKELY. A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
THEN EVOLVE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.

...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS REGION...

AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WILL LIKELY BE PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALL HAZARD TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS STORMS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ANY STORMS THAT ARE SURFACE BASED HOWEVER WILL
HAVE AN ACCOMPANYING STRONG WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING...WHILE
LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD POOL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND AT LEAST MODEST
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY BY THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE COULD BE POCKETS WHERE RECOVERY IS POOR IN
A RELATIVE SENSE...LEADING TO GAPS IN HIGHER PROBABILITY SEVERE.
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR WILL NEGATE ANY SEPARATION IN
ENHANCED PROBABILITY AREA. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
REGARDS TO STORM COVERAGE GIVEN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE MID-MS/OH VALLEY REGION.

MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE...SIG SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG TORNADO
OR TWO POSSIBLE. DURING THE NIGHT AS A SWLY LLJ INCREASES...STORMS
MAY CONCEAL INTO AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING BOW/MCS...IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF AL...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND INTO GA.

...MID-MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...

ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY.
GIVEN STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AS FAR NORTH AND NORTHERN IL/IND INTO FAR SW
LOWER MI. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
HIGHER CAPE VALUES...APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER NRN INTO CNTRL IL BY MID-AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT INTO
PARTS OF SE IL/SW IND/W KY/FAR SE MO. SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...SIG HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ ARE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL IND/KY INTO OH AND THE APPALACHIANS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

..LEITMAN.. 03/30/2016
OK, it's Officially Hot here.
And Dry.
And Smoking.
And Windy.
And Dread.

And it's still a long way to June.......
138. bwi
uh oh This is a big deal for the Washington Post to start reporting seriously on climate -- they've resisted in the past. I think they finally realized that all their beach houses on the Eastern shore are going to have to be moved, and we're gonna need a floodgate on the Potomac! Even really smart people can't digest the implications of science, but when it actually starts to affect you in your lifetime is when people start to notice I think :)

The alarming science behind projections of much higher seas in this century

By Chris Mooney March 30 at 1:09 PM

The calving front of Helheim Glacier in Greenland. (Knut Christianson)
This story has been updated.

For many scientists studying Antarctica, and particularly the vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet, a major new study significantly increasing expectations for sea-level rise is the culmination of a large body of prior research %u2014 combined with alarming recent observations.

The study, just published in Nature, is based on an improved understanding of past warm eras in Earth%u2019s history that featured much higher seas. By creating advanced computer simulations of how Antarctica%u2019s ice melts and flows %u2014 ones that can accurately capture sea level during these eras %u2014 the current study was also able to project considerable sea-level rise in the relatively near future.

In effect, it found that we%u2019re about to start repeating the past.

[Antarctic loss could double expected sea level rise by 2100, scientists say]

The research stated that for a very high-carbon-emissions scenario, melting ice from Antarctica alone could cause seas to rise 1.14 meters (3.74 feet), give or take 36 centimeters, by 2100 %u2014 and vastly more, more than 15 meters (over 50 feet), by 2500. The world has recently taken steps to try to avoid such a high-emissions pathway %u2014 steps whose effectiveness remains to be seen %u2014 but even in a more moderate emissions scenario, the study found the Antarctic contribution could be 58 centimeters (nearly two feet), give or take 28 centimeters, and close to six meters (nearly 20 feet) by 2500.
139. bwi
Even worse, the U.S. midatlantic east coast could see exaggerated sea level rise from Antarctic ice sheet collapse, due to gravitational effects. Even double worse, we could even more water pile up if the gulf stream continues to slow and warmer, taller water column backs up along the coast.
Link

On a lighter note, a nod to one Pensacola postman...
Predicting the weather is a lot like predicting the Lotto or reading the astrology signs.
Quoting 141. tonySFOYUL:

Predicting the weather is a lot like predicting the Lotto or reading the astrology signs.
In which way? Please do elucidate...
Click images to read full Mesoscale Convective Discussions at SPC.
Tornado Watch likely.


Already one Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for OK, NTX and KS, and one more coming for North Central TX.

Quoting 142. Neapolitan:

In which way? Please do elucidate...
Remember BullShoalsAR and Tomball, etc? Not saying the one you responded to is one, but I noticed a recent new round of the same-but-many-(saved up)handles sprung forward when spring sprang.
Slow weather day....Downtown Houston grey and misty, visibility about 8 miles from the 40th floor. We shall not be destroyed this round.
148. vis0
When i read that something is wrong as to TS not forming so symmetrically,  i think...of Grothar trying to spin like  Dorthy Hamill but also...

Maybe the new atmosphere v. CO2  is creating the following.

The following has been mentioned by others and myself*1*  but its worth repeating.

So called "Quiet years IN THE ATLANTIC maybe now create  "Hurricane smudges" *2* while busy years still create classic rotations (symmetrical looking).

Newer observers of nature (younger Humans) have not gone through REAL QUIET "TS season/years.

Remember sar2401, Grothar other veterans of life saying how they went through years with no TS or very few, ...that's YEARS IN A ROW.

Yet in younger humans not seeing true quiet years - IN A ROW - they think "what is wrong or why can't they form symmetrically" if we record/observe 8 TS smudges in the Atlantic.   Instead of looking at it as if there are obstacles to TS symmetry maybe its that aGW is adding a sort of vertical impulse(s) to create a TS without the "perfect" sheer.  In other words in reality what use to be 3-6 years of quiet years in the Atlantic now are 3-6 years TS Smudge(ing) years, with maybe 1 or 2 years of every TS cycle in where there really is no activity.  

If this is the new trend then when we see  years that have 4-6 symmetrical STRONG Hurricanes, add to that 3-5 Strong TS smudges and that will create flooding havoc.

You don't think a TS smudge can create havoc?

Look at what the lovely Islands went through with a Smudge of a TS  in the Antilles a ~year ago, imagine if a Joaquin followed or proceeded that.

In the Southern Atlantic the quiet years where known as their Tropical Storm Trend, as in no TS or VERY FEW happened every generation.

Now the quiet years experiences TS teases and the busy years might see 1 to 3 TS, even a Hurricane.

1 or 2?,  some might say is not much but compare that to 1 or 2 every 30 years.

Its a big difference, and i am not talking of TS out in the deep sea i'm only counting those that can be seen developing off shore near Brazil or their Navy can intercept to take readings or closer observations.

In the Pacific due to its size and atmospheric interactions, quiet years create and handful or a bit more of well formed TS / Hurricanes and many symmetrically perfect or as perfect as physics allows. Now their quiet years are busier and their busy years (as to TS) we loosely compare to the red spot on Saturn since they remain strong and symmetrical being this Atmosphere v.CO2 is adding so much more fuel to tap into and also causes TS to last longer and even  move on to affect the Southern Pacific.

 ------stinky foot notes---------------------

*1*:: Of course i state some majekeel-device i invented also has an influence but will become less and more aGW as we continue to go backwards to move forward (removing or changing laws already in the books meant to help make Earth cleaner, more as nature/chance/gawd made it..

*2*::The Phrase "Hurricane Smudge" or "TS Smudge"  i give copyright to Grothar not the Keebler elves.

or i could be 99.9% wrong...i also can hear Grothar saying i have spun around very fast...oh wait that was the room spinning after the New Years Eve party....
150. bwi
151. vis0

Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:

The same areas that had the record rains in northern Louisiana and Arkansas just a few weeks ago is now UTG again. Looks like this is setting up to be an outbreak, with 30-60 tornadoes quite possible over the next two days. The story will be the rain, this area has been relentlessly hammered for a long time now. I worry attrition is going to lead to a national disaster of a proportion we're not really acknowledging yet. Over night may be the time we get a few strong tornadoes. This is potentially setting up to be a very dangerous next two days.
Agree, though  if not immediately sooner than most think (most as in the general uninformed or misinformed public) PLUS IMHO you forget the "s" after disaster.

For those that say or think this has happened before. Notice already in the past few years the USofA has broken 3-5 weather extremes and when one notices the records that where broken none are over a year or even 5 year period (except the dust bowl).
Read wxu members as barbamz, plazared, pablosyn (Pablosyn still here??? after barbamz report of a serious storm in pablosyn's area) reports/links for similar examples throughout the world.  

These are records that are spread over 20-40 years being broken in a span of ~5-10 years. Remember part of the reason for the spread of the dust bowl was crop mismanagement when now we know better management so if we see half a dust bowl THAT means that with the better management of crops/soil something still has influenced nature to create such an extreme.  

That something might start with an "a" and Ends with a "W", gee i wonder if readers can guess the missing letter? ...Taz don't even think of posting that.

BACK TO OBSERVING what could become serious weather. Remember do not drive through water where you cannot see the asphalt, don't think because the road has been there for your entire life, that its still there when its covered by water. If the road has been washed away or crumbling it then becomes a fools road, and i'm sure you are not a fool so be safe turn around and warn others.
152. JRRP7
Quoting 105. ricderr:

the 30 day SOI value is now in neutral territory standing at -5.90

and will continue to rise

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302053Z - 302230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH CNTRL LA MIGHT UNDERGO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION AND POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
TORNADO THREAT. WW 60 IN SHREVEPORT CWA CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED SWD
IF NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AN ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE FOR THE NRN
PORTION OF LAKE CHARLES CWA WHICH WOULD ALSO INCLUDE THE SRN PORTION
OF SHREVEPORT CWA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITHIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO CLOUDS. TENDENCY
WILL BE FOR THE LLJ AND MID-LEVEL WINDS TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A PROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET. A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND SOME SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING IN THIS
REGION. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST INVERSION PERSISTING.
WITH DEEPER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THIS REGION IN ADDITION TO
ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT A WW WILL BE NEEDED.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
Quoting 141. tonySFOYUL:

Predicting the weather is a lot like predicting the Lotto or reading the astrology signs.


Comment #2 and I already know where you are going. "Welcome to the party!"
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 60
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES...ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Quoting 154. Gearsts:



College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 455 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 447 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 446 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 445 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 443 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 433 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 420 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 417 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 413 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 413 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 413 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 413 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016



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SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 503 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 457 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
Vis0. Are you sure we didn't meet at a college party in the 1960's?? :):)

Pressures might drop in the Gulf next week. Beware the blob!

South Florida hadn't had a significant hurricane from 1966 until Andres in 1992, which why is came as such a shock. During that period, Florida had a significant increase in population which had never experienced a hurricane.
Quoting 141. tonySFOYUL:

Predicting the weather is a lot like predicting the Lotto or reading the astrology signs.


Yeah, just like how planes can fly because magical pixies spread fairy dust on the wings before take off. Usually with peanut butter so it's extra sticky. If you ask nicely after you land, sometimes they'll let you go and lick it off the wings.

Mmmm....tasty. Nothing like a delicious mixture of peanut butter, pixie dust, and jet fuel to get you going. Or as I like to call it, "Red Bull".
Bad news out of California, where the El Nino doesn't seem to have helped the populated southern part of the state one bit.

" Unimpressive El Niño leaves California in water limbo

"The rain storms and blizzards that were supposed to come with El Niño were conspicuously non-biblical in California this winter, leaving the state in an ecological limbo that has regulators thinking about easing water-use restrictions in some places but not in others.

"While the weather cheered ski resorts hit hard by the historic drought and brought some reservoirs to their highest points in years, in the end it dropped less snow than average in the Sierra, where more than a third of the state’s water comes from.

...

"What’s clear is that one mediocre winter is not likely to revive the 58 million trees statewide suffering severe water loss and bark beetle infestations. Salmon, sea lions and aquatic birds — and farmers — will continue to struggle as atmospheric irregularities continue, climate experts say.

...

"While the water situation improved relative to the past few years, the El Niño did not live up to expectations. The event, marked by warm water in the equatorial Pacific feeding moisture into the atmosphere, was indeed strong — among the top three most robust on record. But it behaved differently than El Niños of the past.

“The storm track was enhanced over the Pacific as anticipated, but it was farther north than anticipated,” said Daniel Swain, a climate researcher at Stanford University. “Places other than California got our water, like Washington and Oregon.”

Southern California, which bore the brunt of the big El Niños in 1997-98 and 1982-83, saw just half of average rainfall in many places this winter, including Los Angeles.

...

In general, the recent weather may be an anomaly in California, said Francisco Chavez, a biological oceanographer for the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. He warned that a long-term trend of drier weather may return this year.

“My forecast,” Chavez said, “is that we will have continued drought — I don’t know how severe that will be — for several years to come.”


Source: San Francisco Chronicle

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SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 621 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 618 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 615 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 614 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself."

A lot of people don't read that statement. This is not a blog about politics.
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TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 646 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
East coast snow storm maybe...

  • College of DuPage Meteorology
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    SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 705 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
    TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - AMMC 700 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
    TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 700 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
Quoting 178. HurricaneFan:

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself."

A lot of people don't read that statement. This is not a blog about politics.


You just did it.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
710 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT  
 
* AT 709 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER EMERSON...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MAGNOLIA...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
MAGNOLIA AROUND 725 PM CDT.  
VILLAGE AROUND 730 PM CDT.  
MOUNT HOLLY AROUND 740 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
MEDLOCK...NOXOBE...LAUGHLIN...SPOTVILLE...CALHOUN AND EBENEZER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
GFS 96 hours...

Damaging, multi-vortex tornado moving through the northeastern suburbs of Tulsa, OK:

TOR  BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
813 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT  
 
* AT 813 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF WELCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...  
WELCH... BLUEJACKET...  
PYRAMID CORNERS... HOLLOW...  
CENTRAILIA...  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 813 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 812 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 808 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 807 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 807 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 800 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 756 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     TULSA OK - KTSA 751 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
More Nonsense from the Fossil Fuel Industry
03/28/2016 02:41 pm ET | Updated 2 days ago



DAN MøLLER VIA GETTY IMAGES

It’s hard to know where to begin with the nonsense from the fossil fuel industry’s front men. For raising questions about potentially fraudulent and illegal activity by fossil energy producers, David B. Rivkin, Jr., and Andrew M. Grossman of the industry’s PR network took to the Wall Street Journal opinions page to label me a Spanish Inquisitor. The authors are both frequent Republican witnesses in congressional hearings, with seemingly vast expertise. Between them, they have testified on separation of powers, international treaties, bankruptcy law, the Americans with Disabilities Act, and detention of enemy combatants. But this week it’s climate change—and I’m the modern-day Torquemada.

Let’s start with the fact they refuse to acknowledge that the Department of Justice brought and won a civil racketeering case against Big Tobacco based on conduct that matches closely what academic reports are saying about the climate denial operation they defend. Many of the studies, from individual academics at multiple universities and even from the Union of Concerned Scientists, volunteer that tobacco comparison.
Then let’s move on to their complaint that calls to hold the industry accountable for spreading potentially fraudulent misinformation amounts to stifling free speech rights. Never mind the fact that fraud is not protected by the First Amendment, and fraud is the gravamen of a civil RICO complaint. The writers’ whipped-up froth about the First Amendment overlooks that little fact.

Then let’s consider the “science” they are defending, which virtually never manages to turn up in peer-reviewed scientific journals, but instead usually inhabits blogs, FOX News, and congressional hearings, and frequently can be traced back to industry money (just like the tobacco scheme). One researcher was paid over a million dollars, and vetted his “science” with his industry funders.

The larger point is that the Republican Party is torn between its fossil fuel funders and their denial apparatus on the one hand, and reality and science on the other. Sadly, the Party has chosen to follow the money. But from NASA and the Navy to every national lab and major state university, the verdict is clear about carbon pollution and climate change, and people know it—particularly young people. This sickening kowtowing to fossil fuel denial may help explain the recent news that young voters choose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump 52-19, consistent with the view in polls among young Republican voters (age 35 and under) that a climate-denying politician is “ignorant,” “out of touch” or “crazy.”

The fossil fuel industry’s denial apparatus is in an anxious state that it may be exposed, but sunlight into the vile machine cannot come too soon. As Pope Francis has reminded us, Nature does not forgive.

Follow Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse on Twitter: www.twitter.com/SenWhitehouse
Quoting 181. Patrap:






I really wish it would clear up. Hoping to check out Mars/Saturn soon with my telescope.
Don't you have a Dobsonian scope if I recall correct CT?
Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:



I really wish it would clear up. Hoping to check out Mars/Saturn soon with my telescope.
Did you see the video an amateur astronomer just caught of an asteroid striking Jupiter? Very cool.
The Jupiter Edge strike was a good catch. Many caught it simultaneously, but the one where He was doing the time lapse is the one circulating the most.





Quoting 199. Patrap:

Don't you have a Dobsonian scope if I recall correct CT?


Yessir, 8" dob, 1200mm, f/5.9. Good planetary scope!

Quoting 200. Llamaluvr:

Did you see the video an amateur astronomer just caught of an asteroid striking Jupiter? Very cool.


I did. I would have been observing Jupiter the night that happened if it weren't for the clouds...
TOR
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
904 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT  
 
* AT 904 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF TREECE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF  
CHETOPA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BAXTER SPRINGS... COLUMBUS...  
GALENA... LOWELL...  
TREECE... LAWTON...  
FAULKNER... NEUTRAL...  
CRESTLINE... RIVERTON...  
MELROSE...  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
TOR
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
911 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST CENTRAL UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT  
 
* AT 910 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN  
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED  
AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE  
DANGERS OF FLOODING.  
 
   Got sprinkled on here today , went outside, heard thunder and it started to sprinkle. Airport got .03", Indian Hills got nothing.
207. MahFL
It's pouring here in Orange Park :

208. JRRP7
lol... some forecast members are showing godzilla niña or super duper la niña
209. JRRP7
before

now

210. vis0
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1025 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1024 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1018 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1011 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 1010 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1007 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 958 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 957 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 955 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 947 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 944 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 926 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 921 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 921 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
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TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1109 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1108 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
000
FXUS62 KTAE 310055
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
855 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

.Update...

No updates to the forecast were necessary this evening.
Discussions below remain valid.

&&

.Prev Discussion [744 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Weak ridging across the CWA weakens even further as a shortwave
pushes into the central Plains. This will bring more of a
southwesterly upper level flow to the southeast and this combined
with the associated cold front will provide increased moisture
across the CWA tonight. The precip associated with this system
should remain west of the CWA through tonight.

Temperature guidance for tonight was a little lower than previously
given. Have trended downward with overnight low temperatures
tonight, but remain on the warmer side of guidance given lower
clouds expected late tonight. This will result in lows tonight
mainly in the 60s.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A broad positively tilted long wave trough will cover most of the
CONUS through the period. This will place the local region in deep
moist southwest flow aloft with an active sub-tropical jet overhead.
At the surface, a cold front will approach from the northwest
Thursday and will be a slow mover as it pushes into the Tri-state
region Thursday night through Friday night. By 12z Sat., the front
should be roughly on a VLD-TLH-AAF line. This will bring the
potential for heavy rains and flash flooding especially from late
Thursday through Friday night. Global model guidance and CAM
guidance shows QPF amounts in the 3 to 4 inch range with isolated
amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible.
A flash flood watch will most
likely be issued for all or a portion of our CWA but since the
heaviest rains are not expected until at least late Thursday, we
will hold off for now.

This system will also bring with it the threat for severe weather
for our far western zones Thursday night. However, the greatest
threat for our region will be Friday/Friday night where SPC
currently has all but our SE Big Bend zones highlighted with a
slight risk. The following are some parameters that will be coming
together: dew points around 70 degrees, surface based CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG and deep layer shear 50+. However, low level shear
doesn`t appear overly impressive at this time (<25 KTS) and
forecast mid level lapse rates are not as favorable for large hail
(5-6 C/KM). Thus, the main severe weather threat with this system
will be damaging thunderstorm winds but isolated tornadoes will
be possible.



It's going to be a busy day for me on Friday, I just got 4.72 here from Thursday into Sunday, and the fact we could match that just on Friday is crazy, the mosquitoes are going to get bad around here!

It's great for wild life and the new spring growth though, I love the green, rain = more green.
215. JRRP7

?????????
Quoting 215. JRRP7:


?????????
DOOM  I think this needs more work...lol
Quoting 202. CybrTeddy:



Yessir, 8" dob, 1200mm, f/5.9. Good planetary scope!



I did. I would have been observing Jupiter the night that happened if it weren't for the clouds...


I've got serveral scopes, including a 6" refractor (Canon), a 10" Schmidt Cassegrain (Eyeball), and a 4" Maksutov (Nub). Thanks to all the development that has happened in my area, they're all about as useful as cataracts when it comes to observing the night sky. Even straight up the sky is almost completely washed out from light pollution (combined with regular pollution, contrails, etc.) Only the brightest objects can penetrate the orange mush we call a sky here at night. Hooray for the DC/Baltimore metroplex. :P

I got the scopes many years ago when I lived in rural NE, where the only thing I had to worry about impeding the night sky were trees, clouds, mosquitoes, and the occasional moose.
I see I must have been quoting a troll, sorry on my part :)
Quoting 215. JRRP7:


?????????
Quoting 209. JRRP7:

before

now


Quoting 208. JRRP7:

lol... some forecast members are showing godzilla niña or super duper la niña



Well as I said earlier

Quoting 132. wunderkidcayman:



Yes CFS is fixed but using bad data needs a few days if not weeks to filter through before proper data
Bad input bad output simple
Quoting 133. wunderkidcayman:



I suspect when it's all filtered we should see a decent La Niña in the near future
Current SOI value is at -4.7 and rising
6 days late, but I've been on wunderground for 3 years. I want to thank God for placing me here and for sllowing me to become the man and weather forecaster I am today.I want to thank Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson for all of their wonderful blogs, knowledge, and website. I want to thank all of you for giving me knowledge, advice, and for being such good aquantiences and friends. :) :)
Quoting 218. Xyrus2000:



I've got serveral scopes, including a 6" refractor (Canon), a 10" Schmidt Cassegrain (Eyeball), and a 4" Maksutov (Nub). Thanks to all the development that has happened in my area, they're all about as useful as cataracts when it comes to observing the night sky. Even straight up the sky is almost completely washed out from light pollution (combined with regular pollution, contrails, etc.) Only the brightest objects can penetrate the orange mush we call a sky here at night. Hooray for the DC/Baltimore metroplex. :P

I got the scopes many years ago when I lived in rural NE, where the only thing I had to worry about impeding the night sky were trees, clouds, mosquitoes, and the occasional moose.



Yeah light pollution is a major concern for me too. I live about 80 miles North of Cleveland and 90 or so N/E of Detroit and about 30 S/W of London Ontario and while my overhead view is still able to show the milky way, it is washed out about 35 degrees down from the zenith. The light pollution is still limited to domes of light on the horizon, the light signature of London is by far the worst comprising, most of my N/E view.

I bought a Skyshed pod and placed it on a deck behind my barn, well away from the lights from the busy rural highway in front of my place.

As for scopes, I am limited to a 9.25" Celestron and a small refractor plus binos, of course. I sold my 5 inch APO refractor a couple of years back, as it's a tight fit in the pod, besides the C 9.25 is a pretty awesome scope, it does double duty as a deep sky scope plus it is a wonderful planetary instrument as well.


224. vis0
~6 rotations that could've been tornadoes AR::1, OK::4, KS::1. Injuries did happen.

Not posting much as had a gas leak via stove had to closed gas pipe, repairing today. Might've been caused by neighbors on the gas line banging on it as if it where a steam pipe.

Back to observing nature, be cautious, respectful while observing so one can continue to observe more of natures wonders.
226. vis0
SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 66
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF PINE BELT
MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MC COMB MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 65...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...GOSS
227. vis0
Do not drive through water covered roads.



FLASH FLOOD WARNING



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
459 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT

* AT 459 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE...GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK...TUTWILER...MARKS...
LAMBERT...CROWDER...WEBB...SUMNER...POPE...ENID... VANCE...
COURTLAND...LOCKE STATION...SABINO...EUREKA SPRINGS...DENTON...WEST
MARKS...LONGSTREET...WAVERLY AND SHUFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 9044 3424 9044 3437 8972 3411 8973

$$
Rivers turn to dust as drought bites Somalia

Somalia's bread basket has become a dust bowl as the life-giving waters of the mighty Shabelle river run dry amid intense drought in the war-torn country.

River-fed farmlands have become parched playgrounds for children who kick footballs beneath a cloudless sky, as one sign among many of the failed rains that the United Nations warns has put more than a million people at risk.

Elders in the Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, where most people rely on farming for survival, said it is the first time in decades they have seen such water shortages in the river.

"I have never dreamt of finding myself walking inside the river," said Adow Amin, a resident in Afgoye town, just outside the capital Mogadishu, an area famous for its banana production.



Read more at: Link
If forecasts bear out and we get La Nina conditions by July we may see an uptick in hurricane formations close to USA waters. I say that on account of extremely warm SST in the area now.
The next time one hears the old greedy science grant writing scammer claim -

UNAOIL: THE COMPANY THAT BRIBED THE WORLD

“A massive leak of confidential documents has for the first time exposed the true extent of corruption within the oil industry, implicating dozens of leading companies, bureaucrats and politicians in a sophisticated global web of bribery and graft.”

“The investigation centres on a Monaco company called Unaoil, run by the jet-setting Ahsani clan. Following a coded ad in a French newspaper, a series of clandestine meetings and midnight phone calls led to our reporters obtaining hundreds of thousands of the Ahsanis’ leaked emails and documents.

The trove reveals how they rub shoulders with royalty, party in style, mock anti-corruption agencies and operate a secret network of fixers and middlemen throughout the world’s oil producing nations.”


Link
Hi there!

It's a pleasant 81, feeling like 84, and partly cloudy kind of morning on the island today. Looks like an afternoon of showers on their way.

Had a wonderful 5-day camping trip which went way too quickly and am already planning our next get away!

Latest update on Zika:

"Weekly Update: No New Zika Cases, Four More Cases of Dengue

The Virgin Islands Department of Health reported no new cases of Zika this week, though it did confirm four case of dengue.
The total count for Zika cases remains at 12, with 11 on St. Croix and one on St. Thomas. The new dengue cases were reported on St. Croix and St. Thomas."

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy


Quoting 223. gr8lakebreeze:



Yeah light pollution is a major concern for me too. I live about 80 miles North of Cleveland and 90 or so N/E of Detroit and about 30 S/W of London Ontario and while my overhead view is still able to show the milky way, it is washed out about 35 degrees down from the zenith. The light pollution is still limited to domes of light on the horizon, the light signature of London is by far the worst comprising, most of my N/E view.

I bought a Skyshed pod and placed it on a deck behind my barn, well away from the lights from the busy rural highway in front of my place.

As for scopes, I am limited to a 9.25" Celestron and a small refractor plus binos, of course. I sold my 5 inch APO refractor a couple of years back, as it's a tight fit in the pod, besides the C 9.25 is a pretty awesome scope, it does double duty as a deep sky scope plus it is a wonderful planetary instrument as well.





The 9.25" Clestron's are pretty popular. Big enough to be serious, yet still small enough that most people won't blow their backs out moving it around.

Where I am, the light pollution is bad enough that I can almost read outside at night. :P
No change to the drought areas from last week in Puerto Rico.

Quoting 233. Tropicsweatherpr:

No change to the drought areas from last week in Puerto Rico.


Dry month.
Scientists say Antarctic melting could double sea level rise. Here’s what that looks like.

Instead, this study published in the journal Nature suggests that we should actually double that forecast when we include melting in Antarctica: approximately six feet of sea level rise by 2100. Just as alarming is the projection that Antarctica by itself could add 50 feet of sea level rise by 2500.

What does that even look like?


Link
Greenland ice sheet today........................................Link
Quoting 151. vis0:


Agree, though  if not immediately sooner than most think (most as in the general uninformed or misinformed public) PLUS IMHO you forget the "s" after disaster.

For those that say or think this has happened before. Notice already in the past few years the USofA has broken 3-5 weather extremes and when one notices the records that where broken none are over a year or even 5 year period (except the dust bowl).
Read wxu members as barbamz, plazared, pablosyn (Pablosyn still here??? after barbamz report of a serious storm in pablosyn's area) reports/links for similar examples throughout the world.  

These are records that are spread over 20-40 years being broken in a span of ~5-10 years. Remember part of the reason for the spread of the dust bowl was crop mismanagement when now we know better management so if we see half a dust bowl THAT means that with the better management of crops/soil something still has influenced nature to create such an extreme.  

That something might start with an "a" and Ends with a "W", gee i wonder if readers can guess the missing letter? ...Taz don't even think of posting that.

BACK TO OBSERVING what could become serious weather. Remember do not drive through water where you cannot see the asphalt, don't think because the road has been there for your entire life, that its still there when its covered by water. If the road has been washed away or crumbling it then becomes a fools road, and i'm sure you are not a fool so be safe turn around and warn others.



I often remind people that six of the past twelve record warm months (Oct 2007, June 2010, July 2011, March 2012, May 2015 and Dec 2015) in Washington DC have occurred in the past nine years. Our period of record is 140 years.
Quoting 229. rmbjoe1954:

If forecasts bear out and we get La Nina conditions by July we may see an uptick in hurricane formations close to USA waters. I say that on account of extremely warm SST in the area now.

I say we may get La Niña before July ... may even be before June
Tracking 'marine heatwaves' since 1950: How the 'blob' stacks up

Date:
March 30, 2016
Source:
University of Washington
Summary:
A tally of Northern Hemisphere marine heatwaves since 1950 shows that prolonged warm periods have recurred regularly in the past, but are being pushed into new territory by climate change.

Link
Wow.. over 4" precip. forecast (total) today through Saturday here in the panhandle. My office window faces NW (looking toward Mobile?)

So as I sit here updating clients' WordPress Plugins I find it hard to imagine how such a beautiful spring morning is going to morph into a dark and soggy couple of days.... I think I may have to go for a walk very soon!
1.1" in gauge this morning in S C IL, enhanced area just E of me this p.m. StL 10 o'clock precast showed it pop up over us at about 1, then move E and get nastier, we'll see. Pressure continues to drop, 29.45". Was around 30.3 Tues, 29.7 yesterday. Wind gusts still around 30 from S, dew pt at 57 currently. Stay alert S & E!

Looks like it's going to be a chilly opener in Pittsburgh Sun. afternoon. Snow out?

Edit: See I forgot temp - think 59 then, but now 61 & dew pt up to 59, fuel is there & S winds blowing more up into partly sunny area.
Looks like a top 4 or 5   warmest March in DC with likely three or four being ahead   Think we'll beat 53.0 in 1946.. current #4

1981 33.0 43.7 47.6 62.1 66.2 78.7 80.2 77.0 71.0 58.3 51.4 38.5 59.0 38.8 58.6 78.6 60.2 55.2 62.7
2007 40.7 30.9 47.7 53.6 67.8 76.1 79.3 79.7 72.9 67.1 49.8 41.8 59.0 38.6 56.4 78.4 63.3 52.8 65.1
1987 34.7 37.0 47.7 54.8 67.2 76.4 82.6 78.7 72.1 54.4 49.9 41.5 58.1 37.2 56.6 79.2 58.8 53.0 63.2
2002 41.6 42.6 47.7 60.0 65.2 76.1 80.9 81.1 73.0 58.7 47.1 37.2 59.3 43.2 57.6 79.4 59.6 55.5 63.0
1985 30.8 37.8 47.7 61.6 68.1 72.3 79.0 76.7 71.9 61.2 54.3 36.4 58.2 38.1 59.1 76.0 62.5 53.1 63.3
2006 43.1 38.6 47.9 59.5 65.1 74.5 80.4 80.6 67.8 57.3 50.7 44.2 59.1 39.4 57.5 78.5 58.6 54.8 63.5
1948 28.8 36.8 48.0 55.9 64.6 74.0 78.0 75.8 69.4 56.2 51.4 40.2 56.6 34.1 56.2 75.9 59.0 51.4 61.8
1871 32.6 35.9 48.0 58.2 63.9 73.2 74.0 76.8 62.3 58.1 42.3 32.1 54.8 M 56.7 74.7 54.2 52.0 57.6
1918 23.7 36.8 48.4 53.2 69.6 70.8 74.4 77.6 64.2 60.6 46.3 41.6 55.6 29.5 57.1 74.3 57.0 50.4 60.8
1894 37.8 35.2 48.5 53.2 65.9 73.6 77.9 74.0 71.4 57.9 44.0 37.4 56.4 37.1 55.9 75.2 57.8 52.4 60.4
1963 31.4 31.0 48.5 57.8 64.9 73.7 77.6 75.4 66.5 61.2 49.8 31.1 55.7 31.9 57.1 75.6 59.2 51.2 60.3
1997 37.0 44.7 48.7 54.0 62.9 73.1 80.4 77.6 70.5 59.6 46.2 41.0 58.0 41.6 55.2 77.0 58.8 53.4 62.6
1907 37.2 30.2 48.8 48.4 59.2 65.9 75.8 72.4 69.4 52.0 44.5 38.1 53.5 34.8 52.1 71.4 55.3 48.3 58.7
1898 36.6 35.0 48.8 50.9 64.4 73.5 78.8 76.9 71.0 57.8 44.0 35.6 56.1 36.6 54.7 76.4 57.6 51.5 60.7
1983 38.1 38.7 48.8 53.3 64.9 75.0 81.2 81.0 72.6 60.5 50.3 36.0 58.4 40.8 55.7 79.1 61.1 53.1 63.6
2004 30.6 38.2 48.8 57.4 71.8 73.4 78.6 75.9 71.6 58.3 51.0 40.1 58.0 36.0 59.3 76.0 60.3 53.4 62.6
1991 38.6 43.0 48.8 58.2 73.0 76.8 81.4 80.0 71.0 60.4 48.8 42.3 60.2 42.0 60.0 79.4 60.1 56.4 64.0
1913 43.6 36.6 49.0 55.5 64.4 72.8 77.6 74.2 67.4 58.8 47.8 40.4 57.3 40.1 56.3 74.9 58.0 53.7 61.0
2008 40.0 41.0 49.0 58.9 64.7 77.9 80.8 77.9 74.0 58.9 46.6 40.3 59.2 40.9 57.5 78.9 59.8 55.3 63.1
1995 39.6 34.3 49.2 56.3 65.8 74.6 81.5 81.3 70.9 62.3 43.1 35.6 57.9 39.4 57.1 79.1 58.8 53.3 62.5
1974 42.9 39.2 49.2 58.3 65.1 71.5 79.0 78.4 70.2 57.3 50.9 43.1 58.8 41.3 57.5 76.3 59.5 54.4 63.2
1878 33.5 39.8 49.4 58.3 62.5 69.1 80.2 75.0 68.9 57.0 45.4 33.3 56.0 38.4 56.7 74.8 57.1 52.1 60.0
1968 31.4 34.3 49.7 58.0 63.7 74.1 79.9 79.2 72.0 61.3 50.0 36.6 57.5 35.2 57.1 77.7 61.1 51.9 63.2
1938 35.7 40.9 49.8 57.1 63.4 72.8 78.4 78.6 67.4 58.8 49.8 38.4 57.6 37.9 56.8 76.6 58.7 53.3 61.9
1903 33.4 37.4 50.0 54.0 64.4 67.0 76.0 71.8 67.2 56.8 41.6 32.2 54.3 35.1 56.1 71.6 55.2 51.0 57.6
1935 33.3 35.4 50.2 51.9 61.8 73.4 79.4 76.8 67.0 58.2 50.2 32.1 55.8 35.3 54.6 76.5 58.5 51.0 60.6
1990 43.6 45.2 50.2 56.8 64.3 75.0 79.4 76.5 69.6 62.8 52.0 44.5 60.0 38.9 57.1 77.0 61.5 55.9 64.1
1929 34.9 35.0 50.2 57.6 64.5 72.9 76.9 74.4 70.2 55.6 47.6 38.4 56.5 36.4 57.4 74.7 57.8 52.5 60.5
1936 30.6 29.6 50.3 52.2 67.4 72.8 78.4 77.9 71.4 59.7 45.0 39.8 56.3 30.8 56.6 76.4 58.7 50.5 62.0
1973 37.6 37.0 51.1 56.0 62.8 77.1 79.2 79.9 74.3 63.3 51.6 41.9 59.3 39.4 56.6 78.7 63.1 53.6 65.0
1910 33.6 34.6 51.2 57.9 61.4 69.7 77.6 73.8 71.0 60.2 41.4 30.5 55.2 33.3 56.8 73.7 57.5 51.4 59.1
2010 35.3 34.2 51.2 60.9 69.4 80.6 83.1 80.2 75.5 61.6 50.5 34.6 59.8 35.8 60.5 81.3 62.5 55.3 64.3
1976 33.9 46.9 51.3 59.9 65.0 77.6 78.4 76.7 70.4 55.4 43.0 35.5 57.9 40.4 58.7 77.6 56.3 55.8 59.9
1979 35.1 28.4 51.5 56.0 67.7 72.4 78.6 78.5 71.6 58.6 54.4 43.7 58.1 35.5 58.4 76.5 61.5 51.9 64.2
2000 35.9 42.5 51.7 55.6 67.8 74.7 74.7 75.1 67.6 60.2 46.7 31.8 57.0 40.1 58.4 74.8 58.2 54.7 59.4
1977 25.4 38.8 52.7 60.1 69.4 74.3 80.9 78.8 73.9 59.0 51.8 38.1 58.6 33.2 60.7 78.0 61.6 53.5 63.8
1946 36.8 39.2 53.0 56.0 65.2 72.4 76.2 72.6 70.0 61.4 51.8 41.4 58.0 36.3 58.1 73.7 61.1 53.8 62.2


2016 so far 53.2

1921 36.6 39.0 55.5 59.2 62.3 74.2 79.3 72.8 74.4 57.0 47.5 37.9 58.0 38.3 59.0 75.4 59.6 54.5 61.5
1945 30.8 38.4 56.2 59.5 62.8 74.5 76.4 74.8 72.8 57.6 49.3 32.9 57.1 34.5 59.5 75.2 59.9 53.7 60.6
2012 40.8 44.4 56.8 58.3 71.4 76.3 84.0 81.0 72.2 61.0 46.6 45.4 61.5 43.4 62.2 80.4 59.9 58.0 65.0
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN 1ST HALF 2ND HALF

245. JRRP7
Quoting 240. wunderkidcayman:


I say we may get La Niña before July ... may even be before June

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
2016 has surprisingly (to me) moved ahead of '98 in a possible #LaNina transition w/much less warm water in the east
Quoting 242. JNFlori30A:

Wow.. over 4" precip. forecast (total) today through Saturday here in the panhandle. My office window faces NW (looking toward Mobile?)

So as I sit here updating clients' WordPress Plugins I find it hard to imagine how such a beautiful spring morning is going to morph into a dark and soggy couple of days.... I think I may have to go for a walk very soon!


Now is definitely the time to do it, by late afternoon I think we'll be dodging storms as there are plenty to our North and West right now!
I wonder what the TSR will say next Tuesday. They probably will leave their forecast close to their original one.
Looks like we're safe along the coast for now, we'll have to wait and see what this afternoon brings.



roll,severe/patrap/wu-icons/beta


Orleans Parish Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsFlash Flood WatchIssued: 3:53 AM CDT Mar. 31, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
Friday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi... including
the following areas... in southeast Louisiana... Assumption...
lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... Lower Plaquemines... lower
  St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St. 
James... St. John The Baptist... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper
Terrebonne. In Mississippi... Hancock... Harrison and Jackson.

* From tonight through Friday evening

* hourly rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches.

* Rainfall amounts of 2 inches in an hour could quickly lead to
localized flash flooding concerns... especially in urban areas
where runoff will be very quick.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
909 am CDT Thursday Mar 31 2016

Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CDT Thursday Mar 31 2016/ 

Synopsis... 

latest surface analysis revealed an exiting 1022mb high over the
Middle Atlantic States and a 995mb low over eastern Iowa. A frontal
zone extended south from the low to eastern Oklahoma to north
central Texas to Texas Big Bend. Tight pressure gradient of 5mb
was present from btr to mob. As a result...southeast to south
winds of 10 to 20 knots with occasional gusts up to 30 knots were
occurring. Isotach analysis showed the nose of 140 knot sub-
tropical jet from Texas Big Bend to west Louisiana...forecast area
in right front quadrant for now. Isotach analysis at 850mb showed
a low level jet of 50 to 60 knots southwest Louisiana to middle Mississippi
Valley...40 knots over our area. 

Precipitable water plots at 00z 
showed a swath of moisture with values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches from
northwest Gulf to west Louisiana to southeastern Arkansas. Finally...the latest upper air analysis the main trough axis from
Iowa to Arizona with disturbances over Missouri/Arkansas and
over Arizona. 18

Short term... 
moisture axis and low level jet will migrate east and yielding 0-3 km
helicity values over 400 to 500 M/S over southwest Mississippi and
Florida parishes of Louisiana this morning before sunrise. Cape
values around 1000 j/kg will increase to 1800 j/kg by sunrise with
a slight lag behind the current convection. Could see some spin
ups through this morning. Ergo...agree with tornados watch through 9
am for north half zones excluding MS coast. Worked over atmosphere may
yield a lull in activity from middle morning to afternoon. Moisture
axis will slide east to the east through the day.
However...surface heating and instability will yield scattered
south to more numerous activity for north zones.

Wind profile becomes southwest from surf to 500mb and slightly
decreasing ll shear this afternoon through Friday. The surface
front will finally approach the north zones late this afternoon
and enter into the forecast area tonight. The focus of the front
and several upper disturbances will yield convection across the
south half of the forecast toward midnight tonight and persisting
through Friday.
$50 Trillion Global Electricity Network proposed by China

Link
254. wpb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Iz0YrSZ7iA
A six foot sea rise would turn the Bayou City of Houston into a bay city, with tides pushing up the bayous. The Ship Channel industries would be inundated regularly, and Galveston would probably be reduced to a string of sand atolls. Pretty hard to imagine.
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

Ochlockonee River near Concord (CR 12) affecting Gadsden and Leon
Counties
Ochlockonee River near Havana (US 27) affecting Gadsden and Leon
Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you
see flood waters: Turn around. Don`t drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC039-073-011445-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CONF1.1.ER.160329T0930Z.160331T0400Z.000000T0000Z .NO/
1045 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning
continues for
the Ochlockonee River near Concord (CR 12).
* Until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 37.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 36.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 37.3 feet by this
afternoon. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact: At 38.5 feet: County highway 12 may become closed to
vehicular traffic.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8432 3064 8433 3058 8439 3056 8436 3068 8422

STORMS MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD/INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING. CONVECTION/SOME SEVERE RISK MAY
EXPAND AS FAR E AS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND VICINITY OVERNIGHT.

FINALLY...MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK VORT MAX CROSSING THE N CENTRAL
GULF OVERNIGHT MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE MS RIVER/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE ISOLATED RISK FOR
HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY EXIST.

..GOSS/COOK.. 03/31/2016
Quoting 255. Houdude:

A six foot sea rise would turn the Bayou City of Houston into a bay city, with tides pushing up the bayous. The Ship Channel industries would be inundated regularly, and Galveston would probably be reduced to a string of sand atolls. Pretty hard to imagine.


It will happen sooner than that.

First, the scientists have been less accurate than room full of dart throwing monkeys. They have dramatically underestimated the speed and scope of the warming and the sea level rise. Additionally, they have been less accurate than the monkeys on how it will effect the weather. The only thing they have gotten right was, yes, the ice is melting and yes the sea level is rising. How much, how fast, how it will effect the weather. All wrong.

What people don't tell you is that long before the sea level becomes a problem, the people will be gone, except for a few homeless people wandering among the ruins. The people who run businesses, understand probability, and they will quit investing long before the sea level rises.

You will see less development of the petro chemical complex. Today the gulf coast is far and away the most efficient complex to turn crude oil and natural gas into useful things. But even that advantage will be overcome as the weather breaks it down.

Expect the Gulf Coast will look a lot like Detroit in 30 years or less, probably less.

Cheers
Qazulight
Don't forget..most of the Miami metro area is 4 feet or less above sea level,there's going to be a lot, of High rise buildings down there becoming metal islands,till the storms level them.
Alabama is under the gun right, a lot of big storms over a good portion of the state.

Can someone post an image of the Alabama radar, I tried but it didn't show up. Not sure what I'm doing wrong.
Remove the s from the https and it will post.

IBM did that...and wu cant even fix the wu mail red light icon.

We are fading fast, like real fast.

with a 10ft sea level rise,kiss most of the gulf and east coast cities goodbye..................
-NAO coming.
@MJVentrice So... what's the most striking feature you see here via the 11-15d period GFS op forecast from 12Z?
Link
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 67
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ALC003-025-035-039-053-097-099-129-FLC033-113-311 900-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.A.0067.000000T0000Z-160331T1900Z/

TORNADO WATCH 67 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA

CONECUH COVINGTON ESCAMBIA
MONROE

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA

BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE
WASHINGTON

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA

ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...ATMORE...BAY MINETTE...
BELLVIEW...BRENT...BREWTON...CHATOM...DAPHNE...EN SLEY...
EVERGREEN...FERRY PASS...FLOMATON...GROVE HILL...GULF BREEZE...
GULF SHORES...HOMEWOOD...JACKSON...MILLRY...MILTON...MO BILE...
MONROEVILLE...MYRTLE GROVE...OPP...PACE...PENSACOLA...PRICHARD...
SARALAND...THOMASVILLE AND TILLMANS CORNER.

With strong winds.
Quoting 264. tiggerhurricanes2001:

-NAO coming.
@MJVentrice So... what's the most striking feature you see here via the 11-15d period GFS op forecast from 12Z?
Link
GFS being doing that for the last 4 runs. Showing -NAO and then flips to positive NAO on the next -_-
Quoting 258. Qazulight:



It will happen sooner than that.

First, the scientists have been less accurate than room full of dart throwing monkeys. They have dramatically underestimated the speed and scope of the warming and the sea level rise. Additionally, they have been less accurate than the monkeys on how it will effect the weather. The only thing they have gotten right was, yes, the ice is melting and yes the sea level is rising. How much, how fast, how it will effect the weather. All wrong.

What people don't tell you is that long before the sea level becomes a problem, the people will be gone, except for a few homeless people wandering among the ruins. The people who run businesses, understand probability, and they will quit investing long before the sea level rises.

You will see less development of the petro chemical complex. Today the gulf coast is far and away the most efficient complex to turn crude oil and natural gas into useful things. But even that advantage will be overcome as the weather breaks it down.

Expect the Gulf Coast will look a lot like Detroit in 30 years or less, probably less.

Cheers
Qazulight


It'll be the end of the world for man, where cities will be inhabitable, it'll be chaos that Hollywood hasn't even thought up yet.
Quoting 269. RitaEvac:



It'll be the end of the world for man, where cities will be inhabitable, it'll be chaos that Hollywood hasn't even thought up yet.


It will not be that fun. Just depressing. The economics will drive the ruin, not anything interesting like storms or floods are even wars, although they will happen.

On a happier note. A least in South East Texas, when you get to the north side of Houston and up, the terrain becomes more hilly and the water lapping up against that area should make a very beautiful place of the place.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 255. Houdude:

A six foot sea rise would turn the Bayou City of Houston into a bay city, with tides pushing up the bayous. The Ship Channel industries would be inundated regularly, and Galveston would probably be reduced to a string of sand atolls. Pretty hard to imagine.


I think massive changes are coming for America, Oil and Gas is going to be phased out SLOWLY rather we like it or not, and if water levels rise that much, economically it's going to be scary. Unless we phase everything into new industries and people still have jobs. Infrastructure rebuilding is going to be Paramount and to me that's where to invest. I do GIS/mapping and my hope is it will increase into the new industries where infrastructure is key, mapping out everything to the "T"

Geodesign
Quoting 262. Patrap:

Remove the s from the https and it will post.

IBM did that...and wu cant even fix the wu mail red light icon.

We are fading fast, like real fast.




Thanks!
Well they had initiation timing right, just not cells on top of us. A line forming just to our S & E, more discreet cells appear to be even more S & E near Wabash / Ohio River confluence. Dropped a few more hundreths to 29.42", still says 59 dew pt, but feels stickier as temp now up to 68 in S C IL. Still have to watch for cell forming behind this and ahead of front, but think the action will be mostly in the enhanced area as forecast. Heads up!
Quoting 263. LargoFl:

with a 10ft sea level rise,kiss most of the gulf and east coast cities goodbye..................


So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Well, guess my post is lost in the ether, so apologies if it all of a sudden appears. Was getting ready to edit it, as downpour let loose at 1 just after I hit post. Anyway, line formed to our E & S instead of moving over us in cells as 10 news forecast showed. Looks like more discreet cells are even farther S & E near Wabash / Ohio confluence. Will need to keep an eye open for more development ahead of front passage, but doubt any severe here in S C IL, but enhanced area def needs to keep an eye out.

Press dropped a tad to 29.42", temp up to 68 (at least b4 downpour, which is over now), says dew pt still 59, though felt stickier. Will be interested to see how much came down in that 8 mins. A few little rumbles from it too, were louder yesterday.
Quoting 238. georgevandenberghe:




I often remind people that six of the past twelve record warm months (Oct 2007, June 2010, July 2011, March 2012, May 2015 and Dec 2015) in Washington DC have occurred in the past nine years. Our period of record is 140 years.

And 140 yrs. is a blink of the eye, in Earths history.
Quoting 277. NativeSun:

And 140 yrs. is a blink of the eye, in Earths history.

When a person is shot by a high-powered rifle, that single bullet is in contact with their body for only a tiny fraction of a second as it passes through--that is, just "a blink of the eye" in that person's total time on earth. Yet that person is most assuredly dead. Which is to say, your statement has no relevance to or bearing on georgevandenberghe's comment, so please use another response.

Next--
Quoting 274. 69Viking:



So how does a map that shows a 10' sea level rise show it covering areas of NW Florida that are 50' to 300' above sea level?
It doesn't. Suggest you consult a topographgioc map.
280. vis0
  Quoting 277. NativeSun:

      And 140 yrs. is a blink of the eye, in Earths history.



In 140 years that gives us 2 generations, that from childhood - teen years - young adults and adults will (goodness permit) live till lets say 80.

Each of those 2 generations will blink ~730,000,000 (Seven Hundred Thirty million) times and maybe some of the blinking will be purposely slow in the hopes that after they blink that all this havoc is a bad dream that no human could allow this to build to such a level that a child already has 2 strikes against them when they try to take their first breath.


Definition of a generation varies by source. The Census Bureau defines only a single generation - the "babyboomer" generation: 1946-1964. And only that single generation because the Census Bureau believes they share a common set of characteristics. Some social scientists and the media identify other "generations", all of which last a period of 18-22 years. No one defines a generation by the length of the average human lifespan, but rather in segments of around 20 years.

So 140 years would represent around 70 generations rather than 2. I'm not sure that affects the dour conclusion of vis0 but the revised definition means that blink volume by generation decreases significantly.