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9th warmest February on record; La Niña conditions continue but weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:35 PM GMT on March 20, 2009

Global temperatures in February remained about where they've been the past year, with Earth recording its 9th warmest February on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. This past winter was the eighth warmest winter on record (December-February), and the January-February year-to-date period was also the eighth warmest. The most notable extreme February heat occurred February 7 in southern Australia. Many locations set new all-time hottest temperature records, including an all-time state record for Victoria when temperatures reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) in Hopetoun, shattering the previous record of 47.2°C (117.0°F) set in January 1939. The extreme heat was accompanied by very dry conditions that contributed to the development of deadly wildfires that killed 210 people. The most notable cold conditions for the winter of 2008/2009 occurred in the United Kingdom, which had its coldest winter since 1995/1996.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for the month of February 2009. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A dry and warm February for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., February temperatures were the 27th warmest in the 114-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The month was very dry, ranking as the 8th driest February. New Jersey and Delaware had their driest February ever recorded. The winter of 2008/2009 (December - February) ranked as the 5th driest winter on record, and the year-to-date January - February period was the driest ever such period. Texas recorded its driest winter. Thanks to all the dry weather, the U.S. has only seen about 50% of normal tornado activity in 2009, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. On March 19, 2009, 21% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is unchanged from January.

La Niña conditions continue
La Niña conditions continued in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in February, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is continuing their La Niña Advisory. They define La Niña conditions as occurring when the 1-month mean temperature anomaly in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") cools below -0.5°C and is expected to persist for three consecutive months. In addition, the atmospheric response typically associated with a La Niña must be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures anomalies peaked at -1.1°C below average in the Niña 3.4 region during early January. It appears that La Niña has peaked, as ocean temperatures in the Niña 3.4 region have warmed to -0.4°C below average as of March 15. Nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region show that La Niña will dissipate between May - July 2009, and neutral conditions are expected for the August - October peak of hurricane season. Only three out of 16 El Niño models are predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is typically reduced in an El Niño year, due to increased wind shear from strong high-level winds, but that doesn't look like it will happen this year.

Expected impacts of the current La Niña conditions during during March - May 2009 inlude above-average precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere winter, La Niña impacts over the United States are typically less pronounced. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include below-average precipitation across the southern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southwestern and south-central United States.

Sea ice extent
February 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and is currently near its annual maximum. The record February low was set in 2005. Since today is the Spring Equinox, the sun will rise at the North Pole, bringing 24-hour daylight and warming conditions that will begin melting Arctic sea ice.

Portlight Relief Walk this weekend
Saturday March 21 in New Orleans marks the inaugural event in a series of 18 fundraising Relief Walks sponsored by Portlight.org. A hearty thanks go to all the organizers and participants in this effort!



Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think La Nina will weaken in July and very weak El Nino will develop in September(the peak month of Hurricane Season).
Thanks Dr. Masters,
Hugo and (I think)Hazel were both in Neutral years. Gracie was La Nina (I may have Hazel and Gracie backwards).
Will be rooting for the outliers.
i would not be so sure about that cebas

thanks doc for update
happy first dat of spring
we got 71 days till cane season begins
I think we will have 11-13 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes. This could be right. Right???
we got 71 days to figure it out your guess is as good as anybody else's at this point
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we got 71 days to figure it out your guess is as good as anybody else's at this point


Isn't it 72?

11 more in March.
30 in April and 31 in May.

72 days.....
16 hours...
9 minutes and it starts........
thanks for the comment KEEPEROFTHEGATE
i use gmt for atlantic basin 72 71 close enough either way just over 70 days to go
I think this year could be similar to 1988, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2006, and 2007 because of the activity.
10. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i use gmt for atlantic basin 72 71 close enough either way just over 70 days to go


It's all good...KOTG....not too far away now.
- This Atlantic season will be less active than last year
- Intensity of storms will be higher further north than deep Tropics (see map below)
- A handful of hurricanes will still hit the U.S.
- Where they hit will be somewhat random
- Strong La Niña will turn into weak El Niño


Good Morning everyone :)
Zoo is happy to have puddles.. but it would appear she is back int he sunshine to stay for awhile




Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.
Even if El Nino conditions begin in September one must remember that the effects will not be felt in the Atlantic side until some 30-60 days later....Thats toward the end of the Hurricane Season.....Busy Season Coming!
Just transfered my weather station to a more reliable computer. Happy about that. Next item, adding a web cam. Then possibly a 2nd station in the area. Charlottefl weather network lol.. Been looking at the rate the GOM has been warming. That's one thing about the atlantic, it may take a while to cool down but it sure heats up quickly. Should be an interesting season coming up.
On March 20, 2009, at 1:00 p.m. EDT, join a panel of scientists for a live Sun-Earth Day Webcast on www.nasa.gov and NASA TV. During the webcast, scientists will share discoveries about the sun, while students monitor the sun and prepare their own space weather forecast. New and exciting images and animations will be shared during the program.


Charlotte FL, if you're still on here, where are you located? I'm in SRQ, but also Englewood. Seems like quite a few regulars from SWFL area.
Post #12 .....and Surfmom is living in a Dustbowl wannabe state right now.....

I'm a SRQ girl

The Goddess of Spring
has returned - may she bring us all fresh beginnings -- never have her gifts held more value..... they are all around us -- free-- we just have to look!
I just updated my Web Site and the Mirror WU Blog if anyone would like to view....Thanks!

TampaSpins Web Blog Link

TampaSpins WU Blog Link
I plan to wear my PORTLIGHT.ORG HURRICANE IKE T-shirt on the days of the Portlight walks..... as a gesture of solidarity with all my WU friends.

Wearing the shirt does invite questions... and questions can lead to donations!!!!
A handful of hurricanes will still hit the U.S.


oh boy i may need too get more of my taps so i can re cord them all


sorry could not help it
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just updated my Web Site and the Mirror WU Blog if anyone would like to view....Thanks!

TampaSpins Web Blog Link

TampaSpins WU Blog Link


Did you get that thing fixed Tampa?
Quoting Ossqss:


Did you get that thing fixed Tampa?


Yep i believe so....thanks!
23. P451
Had a dusting of snow this AM here in NJ. :D

Should be warming through the weekend.

As to February, for me, it was right around average to slightly below average.

March has probably been a bit warmer than average but has been a typical March --- Warm - Cold - Warm - Hot - Snow - Warm - Freezing - Warm - Snow, etc. Just typical as it gets.

Just waiting out that model predicted storm for the end of the month. That wouldn't surprise me nor would an early April burst of snow.

It's been a very typical winter with slightly below normal temps overall here in Jersey. The only thing we missed, until March, was the coastal storms. Never got that conveyor belt going.

Every year warm or cold we normally have a six week period of coastal storm after coastal storm.

Not this year...
24. P451
As to the NOAA graphic in Dr. M's post? That seems to be as inaccurate as they come. It doesn't represent the temperatures I've had not in the least.

It's amusing to see a giant blue dot in north dakota surrounded by giant red ones. Same goes for just SE of James Bay in Canada.

Yeah....I would not trust that graphic as far as I could throw it. Judging from what it is trying to project I'd have to put on oven mits first.


The rain we got didn't even put a dent in the drought map. Even though some counties went to below the 700 mark still doesn't really mean anything
Post #20 -- I understand Taz...... I'm parched and I am waiting for waves
27. JRRP
Quoting KoritheMan:
390.

No, because SSTs in that area don't reach their peak until September.

thanks
Quoting hahaguy:


The rain we got didn't even put a dent in the drought map. Even though some counties went to below the 700 mark still doesn't really mean anything


No rain for the next 5-7 days at the very best outlook...LaNina is drying up Florida!
Quoting TampaSpin:


No rain for the next 5-7 days at the very best outlook...LaNina is drying up Florida!


Either that... or Nature hears, and she says 'You want rain? Ok.' and gives you Fay.

Guess you can't win.
What ever happened to the cloud seeding thing they used to do to promote rain and attempt to diminish hurricane intensity?
Some counties including my home county actually went up over the last couple of days. think we were at 676 last check
I don't think El Nino is going to develop this year, although we will definitely see the warm side of neutral conditions. Keep in mind that neutral conditions have been some of the nastier years in the Atlantic, and IIRC, if 1969 didn't have an El Nino, it certainly did have a warm sided neutral phase. Needless to say, 1969 will be long remembered by many, so don't let your guard down, even when/if La Nina dissipates.
Quoting Ossqss:
What ever happened to the cloud seeding thing they used to do to promote rain and attempt to diminish hurricane intensity?


When they learned how the so called "responses" hurricanes displayed when seeded were merely natural cycles, the government stopped funding their project (I assume you are referring to Project Stormfury).

The perfect example of how correlation does not necessarily imply causation.
Quoting Ossqss:
What ever happened to the cloud seeding thing they used to do to promote rain and attempt to diminish hurricane intensity?


Not a fan of messing with Mother Nature -- it's always best to let her run the show... there are always consequences for our actions... and if I don't know the consequence --- my choice is NO MESSIN' with the Lady in Charge.
33
34
Thanks for the feedback.

And Surfmom, I could not agree with you more. I don't mess with Mom Nature, or my wife and not in that particular order at any given moment in time.

Lessons learned have in most instances been lessons earned and that couch is not getting any more comfortable. (®¿®) Hail to the queen if you know what I mean!
They still cloud seed. There's regulations in like 2/3rds the states. There's a govt branch that has no online acsess that deals with it. There was alot going on the last few years out west. I really haven't seen what is going on with it lately. Though a friend said they are currently concentrating on CA & were in FL for the winter growing season. I think they're more of an avid chemtrail watcher within a network than inside info. There's some neat pics in that link. There's more info out on the web.
the folks in NOLA have done a tremendous job organizing tomorrow's event...it promises to be a lot of fun...live updates will appear throughout the WU Blogosphere.....
Quoting TampaSpin:


No rain for the next 5-7 days at the very best outlook...LaNina is drying up Florida!
next chance severe round west pan handle on 27 late with a disappating front as it sags across cen fla will generate mod steady rain until exit still 7 days out lots can change
Quoting P451:
Had a dusting of snow this AM here in NJ. :D

Should be warming through the weekend.

As to February, for me, it was right around average to slightly below average.

March has probably been a bit warmer than average but has been a typical March --- Warm - Cold - Warm - Hot - Snow - Warm - Freezing - Warm - Snow, etc. Just typical as it gets.

Just waiting out that model predicted storm for the end of the month. That wouldn't surprise me nor would an early April burst of snow.

It's been a very typical winter with slightly below normal temps overall here in Jersey. The only thing we missed, until March, was the coastal storms. Never got that conveyor belt going.

Every year warm or cold we normally have a six week period of coastal storm after coastal storm.

Not this year...
iam also eyeing the fact that our severe has not been as active so far and appears to be surpress for some reason this could in turn be an indication of a hopeful quiet cane season althought iam am leaning towards a possible record breaking outbreak of subtropical systems i beleive 5 in 74 is the most to ever occur
I actually live in Lehigh in Lee County. My weather station is at my mom's house in Port Charlotte.

Quoting GatorWX:
Charlotte FL, if you're still on here, where are you located? I'm in SRQ, but also Englewood. Seems like quite a few regulars from SWFL area.
As much as people don't like it hurricanes help to balance the atmosphere for lack of a better word or description, as well as all other storms. I'm sure there are ramifications to upsetting that balance.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I don't think El Nino is going to develop this year, although we will definitely see the warm side of neutral conditions. Keep in mind that neutral conditions have been some of the nastier years in the Atlantic, and IIRC, if 1969 didn't have an El Nino, it certainly did have a warm sided neutral phase. Needless to say, 1969 will be long remembered by many, so don't let your guard down, even when/if La Nina dissipates.


1969, 2005, 2008 were all sided with neutral phase. They tend to be more active than a La Nina or an El Nino, stronger hurricanes and more destruction.
It is 72 days, 5 hours, 10 minutes and 0 seconds until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time)...
Days to keep an eye on in the next few weeks:

March 20th: Spring Equinox.

April: Keeping an eye on tropical waves as around in this month, perhaps in May, they begin to roll off the West Coast of Africa.

April 7th: Klotzbach and Gray issue their first forecast in 2009.

April 20th: Tropical Storm Ana (Coincidentally, the first name of this year also) in 2003 formed on this date, one of the earliest starts ever, and the first ever April storm.

April 24-28th: The hurricane conference in Nassau, Bahamas. This is where we'll hear if any hurricanes from yesteryear are to join the retired list, along with their replacements for 2014.

Further afield, as the Southern Hemipshere's season winds down, the gaze turns to the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Remember, Cyclone Nargis (Estimate of 150,000 perished... though even that staggeringly tragic total may be an underestimate) was born on April 27th.

In 2007, a Cat 3 Typhoon Kong-rey was in the West Pacific as early as March.
Gotta love typos

IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SHORTER WAVELENGTH VERSION OF THAT TELECONNECTION.
ALL OF THE MAJOR 12Z/20 MODELS HAVE COME ON BOARD A SOLUTION WHICH
SPLITS A VORTEX OVER FAR SW ALASKA INTO TWO FARTS.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Gotta love typos

IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SHORTER WAVELENGTH VERSION OF THAT TELECONNECTION.
ALL OF THE MAJOR 12Z/20 MODELS HAVE COME ON BOARD A SOLUTION WHICH
SPLITS A VORTEX OVER FAR SW ALASKA INTO TWO FARTS.


Is that really a typo? The F is so far away from the P on the key board.
Quoting Drakoen:


Is that really a typo? The F is so far away from the P on the key board.


Or someones attempt at humor
Drak that is a strange typo,but I found it in the NWS extended forcast
Quoting NEwxguy:


Or someones attempt at humor


April 1st is close...
Quoting Skyepony:
They still cloud seed. There's regulations in like 2/3rds the states. There's a govt branch that has no online acsess that deals with it. There was alot going on the last few years out west. I really haven't seen what is going on with it lately. Though a friend said they are currently concentrating on CA & were in FL for the winter growing season. I think they're more of an avid chemtrail watcher within a network than inside info. There's some neat pics in that link. There's more info out on the web.
Your right on target Skyepony. I had a chance to do a search and cloud seeding is not extinct and exactly the opposite exists. Everything from the Olympics last year to making snow in Nevada. Tib bit for anyone interested.
Link


search results Link
45

Fragmented Alaskan Regional Transverse Sector --a very well known acronym %u266B%u266B
another year with a named storm in May?
Quoting CeBas:
another year with a named storm in May?


It's very likely.

I mean, the Indian Ocean, West Pac and East Pac seasons are all going on during May...

Awkwardness out the way, it's always possible. I don't know though, my initial instinct - for some reason - is that this season will start later. Perhaps the latest since 2004.

But that's just gut feeling.
Quoting NEwxguy:


Or someones attempt at humor


Bad and obvious attempt.
La Nina results are heavily showing in West Central Florida, we havent had measurable rain since March 1st...20 days!! >.<.

Drought continues in Florida.
46, 47
Somebody playing a practical joke with the Auto-correct. LOL
Us in central georgia are dry, too. We haven't had any precipitation since the snow of March 1st, which was a blessing :)

We were supposed to get a full weekend of rain
last week, with several days that said 100% chance of rain, but every rain blob dodged smoothly around us, and we never got any rain.
its funny i just looked and were only under
a moderate drought, yet there is no green grass
anywhere near here. Eh.
2010 hurricane season will be in El Nino conditions likely
has any one tryed the new Internet Explorer 8 yet????
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one tryed the new Internet Explorer 8 yet????


Who uses internet explorer lol j/k
8 is great! 7 was a nonfuctional joke.
But, I am already testing next beta.
But, I am already testing next beta.



For Directions into the Peace Quad its easy.

Looking at the Front Of Loyola from St. Charles Ave..one can access and drop off folks to the Peace Quad thru the Front of the Main Doors at the Top of the Horseshoe Driveway.

Go thru the doors into the First Quad area with the Sculptures,then continue straight thru the Next Building into the Peace Quad.


To park,coming down St Charles Ave,2 Blocks BEFORE Loyola's Front Building,turn right onto Palmer Ave.

Go down 2 Blocks then turn Left onto Loyola St...continue on and you will run into Calhoun St. and into the Peace Quad.
Park anywhere in the area.
There are 3 Handicap Marked Spots in the circle that leads into the Quad area.

Map
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one tryed the new Internet Explorer 8 yet????


I heard about it, but I use Google Chrome.
63. GBlet 5:37 PM PDT on March 20, 2009
But, I am already testing next beta



you are??? what Internet Explorer beta are you testing
The triple tone beta
the NOLA walk is gonna be the start of something huge....you guys and gals simply rock....
On the east central coast of FL weather is getting interesting. NE winds are about to kick up. This may help the fire along I-4 to jump it. The waves are expected to rise to 8-10' over the weekend with killer rip currents, just in time for spring break.
Hey Taz, been messing around with 9+. 7 is crap, locks up too much and has conflicts with windows lastxp.
Merry Spring Pre-Season, WU!
Just passing through...
The American Robin - Turdus migratorious
Photobucket
Good Morning from SWFL - 7:12am - sun just breaking through. 61 degrees, Cardinals are rocking with their morning songs -- Lots of courtship going on!! Love this Spring Fever!
SWFL - Surf - NOT
Dry front to our North will pass by unnoticed except for a slight drop in temps and humidity. Winds to today to pick up from the North in the afternoon providing some action for the kiters. Chunky surf continues Eastside through the weekend as we will remain completely FLAT. Easterly flow will be around well into next week so I just do not see any reprieve for the GC. Hopefully the East wind doesn't blow our upper warm water away, the water feels great right now. Gulf Temp 73 round here......
New Orleans kicks off the first walk for
www.Portlight.org
SHINE ON - SHINE ON

Today I'll be wearing my Portlight Walk shirt w/Hurricane Ike's Picture in solidarity of those walking and raising funds to support this grassroots Hurricane Relief group.....created on this very blog.

Check the Portlight blog out and learn what happens when people get motivated to make a difference in the lives of people affected by the devastation of Hurricanes.
Surfmon: I remember last year you were interested in a lightning tracker for the SRQ area. You may already have this, but am sending it just in case you don't.Link
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Including our newest game... which is easy today... where is Zoo... no clouds or rain covering her today

It's getting kind of nasty here skies have been dark since 7am and a cluster of storms are passing by right now.
hit and miss showers is all I can say hahaguy
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
hit and miss showers is all I can say hahaguy


Ya that's what i meant by passing by lol
it is pouring here in PSL =]
Quoting futuremet:
it is pouring here in PSL =]

Ya just started pouring here by st lucie west
Is this the supposed cold front that was coming through south florida?
Quoting hahaguy:
It's getting kind of nasty here skies have been dark since 7am and a cluster of storms are passing by right now.


Nothing to crazy scattered showers should make there southwesterly into southeast florida as the afternoon progresses due to a wind surge.

Adrian
boy i sure TX and FL are wishing up a Allison right now
Quoting Tazmanian:
boy i sure TX and FL and wishing up a Allison right now


I'd rather have a fay
Sun spots and the solar wind are major contributors to global temp changes less sun spots = a cooler sun hence cooler Mars & Earth

How they effects the Earth is often a matter of what is coming from the sun and how it is absorbed/reflected by the changing albedo of the Earth.

In the present case, I believe the slowing of the solar wind and the 100 year record of number of days with of no sun spots is a primary factor in the cooling trend.

Cosmic rays are less inhibited from our atmosphere and with their cloud forming ability have changed the albedo of the Earth with an increase in low level clouds reported by several sources.

Increased cloud levels of 2% can lower the overall temperature of the Earth nearly .5 C according to some research.
Quoting hahaguy:


I'd rather have a fay


Id rather have an other Isadore again.
Well the showers are none to organized though those red areas could be haboring somthing nasty. Hopefully not.
God it is loud rain sounds like a cane out there.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Id rather have an other Isadore again.


Isidore was actually kind of fun... lol


Wow

I definitely can't wait for the upcoming week
Fay?
Don't go there.
Folk's house is at 8.5'.
St. Johns River Stage for Fay
Knew my ignore instincts were good.
Hello Everyone,

Here's a bit a good news. I've just released Experience Hurricane Ike in HD! It has been re-edited and includes never-before-seen footage...all in spectacular HD.

Had Ike been a day storm, I would've had some amazing video of the piers being destroyed, but I was able to get a part of one of the piers giving up its ghost.

I hope you find the video interesting and worthy of the time it will take to download the HD version for viewing.

Please pause the video in HD at the beginning because it plays sporadically until fully loaded.

Peace, out!
CycloneOz
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Fay?
Don't go there.
Folk's house is at 8.5'.
St. Johns River Stage for Fay
Knew my ignore instincts were good.

Excuse me!!, I got 12in from fay and flooded my whole neighborhood. The only reason why I said Fay was because she snapped us out of our drought. So don't give me that don't got here.
From the spring outlook.

Forecasters say flooding will begin next week and that the Red River of the North in Fargo and Grand Forks, N.D., will ultimately reach major flood stage and has a strong likelihood of a crest measuring among the top five highest on record. Away from rivers, widespread over-land flooding is expected due to the flat terrain and frozen drainage networks in the Red River Basin. The threat in this area is so great that the National Weather Service created a new category – “High Risk” – to distinguish it from the existing “Above Average” category for flooding potential.

Quoting Skyepony:
From the spring outlook.

Forecasters say flooding will begin next week and that the Red River of the North in Fargo and Grand Forks, N.D., will ultimately reach major flood stage and has a strong likelihood of a crest measuring among the top five highest on record. Away from rivers, widespread over-land flooding is expected due to the flat terrain and frozen drainage networks in the Red River Basin. The threat in this area is so great that the National Weather Service created a new category – “High Risk” – to distinguish it from the existing “Above Average” category for flooding potential.



Is that snow melt induced, above the clogged drain?
The triple tone beta storm would be a good one
Thanx to all who came out and supported the NOLA Portlight Relief Walk...and those online here.




It was a Wunderful day.





I'm not sure if anyone can help but maybe so...went on a regatta today and it was BLOWING STINK out there...we live in Savannah and are sailing on the wilmington river and out into the sound...can anyone point me in the rihgt direction to look for wind speed tomorrow? I don't think I can stand another day of 20 with gusts of 30. At one point was hanging from the shrouds by my hands with my feet not touching the deck because we were heeled over so hard...I wasn't ready for the tack. Is there a place to look for specific areas?
99. Mel
Here's a good graphic generated from the NAM model, but Savannah is right on the edge. The Florida map doesn't quite catch it either. Dont like the WU page?
Then there's the marine forecast.
the NOLA walk was a raving success....a great start to these efforts....major applause to all involved.....
We sure had a fine day presslord.

Thanks for your's and stormjunkies and all ya'lls effort for us here as well..!

Quoting melwerle:
I'm not sure if anyone can help but maybe so...went on a regatta today and it was BLOWING STINK out there...we live in Savannah and are sailing on the wilmington river and out into the sound...can anyone point me in the rihgt direction to look for wind speed tomorrow? I don't think I can stand another day of 20 with gusts of 30. At one point was hanging from the shrouds by my hands with my feet not touching the deck because we were heeled over so hard...I wasn't ready for the tack. Is there a place to look for specific areas?


Melissa check my Web site out.....Boat, beach and tide section
Ossqss~ + they've got 2 storms coming this week, the 2nd a doosey.
We got some nice rain today. Started raining a little during my fantasy baseball draft lol
Re: Post 98

So...

How many people actually were in attendance?

I counted four including the speaker.
Good Morning - Temp in SRQ is 60 degrees , Sun is shining bright....... last post b/4 I hit the road for a long run. Got perfect weather for POLO here this afternoon -- totally perfect temp. for the two and four leggeds. Nice since I won't have to worry about keeping the horses cool b/4 they play.

Congrats to the first PORTLIGHT.ORG walk in New Orleans....... when I checked the Portlight blog -- I spied the nicest T-shirts...... w/ a 'cane, a WU LOGO!!!
Quoting calusakat:
Re: Post 98

So...

How many people actually were in attendance?

I counted four including the speaker.


Sometimes it's quality, not quantity, that's important.

Behave yourself- Wunderground (yeah, the site you're visiting right now) is a sponsor.
107 - negativity has way of being reflected back to the source from whence it came.

Question, Dr. Masters:

What happens if you change the base period to, say '71 to 2000? Or even better, '78 to 2007? Where are the places to find current anomalies relative to the most current 30 year period, which is usually the definition of climate?

I suppose that if I were able to choose the base period, I could make the current temps look either warmer or colder than the chosen base period.
Exhibit pieces together remnants of Katrina


COPENHAGEN -- Scientists are gloomy; economists are more upbeat. Such was the bottom line of an epic, three-day international congress of climate change experts that ended here yesterday.


NEW ORLEANS %u2013 A lawsuit blaming the Army Corps of Engineers for flooding from Hurricane Katrina can proceed to trial, a judge ruled Friday...

Welcome to accountability. We use it a lot, but it tends to come on a lot quicker.

They've got our canal messed up too - Can't get boats in & out half the year, but the floods don't have any problem getting to us.
Good Morning.
Hi Mom !
Great weather here, with the dry season looking to be finally established. But the winds are still north of east, and the Island is cool.
Went to the beach yesterday and never went into the water. It was too cold LOL. Strong wind coming into Maracas Bay almost due north was really cold.
For the first time in my life, I saw Maracas had been changed big-time by recent heavy seas. Lots of erosion, and the beach is "scalloped" rather than being a perfect curve of sand. Now, it is a series of small bays, with a 4 foot drop of eroded sand, exposing a lot of coconut roots and some rock.
Talked to the lifeguards on duty, they say that since Jan. the sea has been big, and they have been busy !
There were 3 days in Feb. when the inter-island ferry could not sail, due to the conditions. And those are big ferries.
Hope everyone is having a good Sunday.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Looks like the weather has finally cleared up for Zoo and she is easy to find today :)

Beautiful, windy and cool here this morning. This is the weather we all live here for - wish we could can it & bring back in August.

Hi Pottery, nice to see you. Orca - your fin must be a little better - see you are typing this morning.
Quoting Skyepony:
Exhibit pieces together remnants of Katrina


COPENHAGEN -- Scientists are gloomy; economists are more upbeat. Such was the bottom line of an epic, three-day international congress of climate change experts that ended here yesterday.




Quite the interesting excerpt from the above link. I think someone needs to tell them, we have run out of ink printing money already this year in the USA. Interesting concept on migration, but I don't actually get the premise as to why they would want to come here. It would not be different than any other place under this hypothetical climate change senario. I guess I am glad they are just having protocol negotiations in Dec. and not really imposing real policy.
En guard !!

'Major migrations' will be part of social disruptions

As the congress wound down, members produced a list of six key conclusions that will be included in a report to U.N. decision-makers prior to December's climate change protocol negotiations in Copenhagen.

On climate trends, the conference noted: "Given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are becoming a reality. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts."

On social disruption, it said: "Societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2° C will be very difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and will increase the level of climate disruption for the remainder of the century."

Major migrations will be part of these potential social disruptions. On this topic, one of the conference's key speakers, John Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact and Research, proposed that rich countries accommodate future climate refugees on their soil according to their historical share of greenhouse gas emissions.

"So, if the USA produces 25 percent of emissions, it would have to accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees," he said, to hearty applause from some conference participants.
Quoting zoomiami:
Beautiful, windy and cool here this morning. This is the weather we all live here for - wish we could can it & bring back in August.

Hi Pottery, nice to see you. Orca - your fin must be a little better - see you are typing this morning.


Cheap pharmaceuticals always help :)
Chinese Sheetrock Poses Health Risk

Americas Watchdog's Homeowners Consumer Center is leading a national investigation into what could be toxic imported Chinese dry wall that began showing up in the United States in 2001. Aside from Florida, and the eastern half of the U.S., the group has now found the imported Chinese dry wall in New Orleans & Southeast Louisiana.


Investigation into Toxic Chinese Sheetrock Drywall Goes National
Quoting Ossqss:




"So, if the USA produces 25 percent of emissions, it would have to accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees," he said, to hearty applause from some conference participants.


Seems fair, if you create 25% of the problem, then you should be ready to assume 25% of the result.
Hi Pat - congratulations on yesterday's event.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Cheap pharmaceuticals always help :)


Score Card
Canada 1
USA 0

(x¿x)
Thanx zoomiami..we had a great time and enjoyed the day.
Quoting zoomiami:
Beautiful, windy and cool here this morning. This is the weather we all live here for - wish we could can it & bring back in August.

Hi Pottery, nice to see you. Orca - your fin must be a little better - see you are typing this morning.

I hear ya its not to hot it's perfect lol
Quoting Ossqss:


Score Card
Canada 1
USA 0

(x¿x)


Oh oh.. not sure thats a game I should be playing while I am on drugs.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh oh.. not sure thats a game I should be playing while I am on drugs.


LMAO
Quoting Orcasystems:


Seems fair, if you create 25% of the problem, then you should be ready to assume 25% of the result.



accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees

Perhaps a billion or so?
Quoting Ossqss:



accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees

Perhaps a billion or so?


You get what you pay for :)
If you created 25%, then you get 25%. How could you possibly argue with that?
Quoting Orcasystems:


You get what you pay for :)
If you created 25%, then you get 25%. How could you possibly argue with that?


Score Card
Canada 2
USA 0
is anyone with me that this will be a very quiet hurricane season like 2006?
Quoting Ossqss:


Score Card
Canada 2
USA 0


Hmmm your really trying to get me in trouble aren't you. Give KEH back his stir stick :)
Quoting hurricanelover236:
is anyone with me that this will be a very quiet hurricane season like 2006?


I think it will be a quiet one...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think it will be a quiet one...


Based on what?
I have the fear of Katrina in me as I face every hurricane season with gloom and doom...
Quoting Ossqss:
"So, if the USA produces 25 percent of emissions, it would have to accommodate 25 percent of the world's climate refugees," he said, to hearty applause from some conference participants.
I have learned on this blog that not all emissions are alike. The 25% emissions belched out by the USA, may not be as toxic as 2.5% of the emissions belched out by China. Or not... who knows. As for taking immigrants, the US has been doing that since the founding of our country.
There are enough questions as to the biases (both scientific and political) of the IPCC. Comments such as those and 'hearty applause' give the appearance of smug, self serving folks whose care for the environment is only exceed by their enjoyment in bashing the US. Not good for the cause.

119. Patrap Not surprised. What folks building/remodeling/restoring a house need now, is a list of companies where they can buy drywall NOT made in China.
China's a huge contributor to global pollution and pretty soon they'll be richer than the U.S., especially if we keep importing their toxic products. How many climate change refugees want to relocate to China? Doesn't sound like a good alternative to me.
Quoting hurricane23:


Based on what?


Based on what has happened so far this year... NADA. BY this time in that last 2 years we had already had some action.. so far this year.. nothing.

We have had unusually cold weather in the GOM, and Surfmom even came close to snow.

I know, I can't back it up with fancy diagrams and charts, but thats the feeling I have.
I think this may be the quietest season yet that we have had in a long time due to increased wind shear, coller water temperatures, and a lot of african dust. I predict maybe 10 storms if that. Probably 3 hurricanes.
Quoting hurricanelover236:
I think this may be the quietest season yet that we have had in a long time due to increased wind shear, coller water temperatures, and a lot of african dust. I predict maybe 10 storms if that. Probably 3 hurricanes.
From your keyboard to God's eyes.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
From your keyboard to God's eyes.


Ossqss, borrowed your stir stick, get it back please... he seems intent on getting me in trouble.... we are suppose to use it on others... hehe not us
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ossqss, borrowed your stir stick, get it back please... he seems intent on getting me in trouble.... we are suppose to use it on others... hehe not us
I took it back. How's your fin?
The GOM heats up very rapidly
Quoting KEHCharleston:
I took it back. How's your fin?


Not to bad.. the drugs they gave me that are shaped like a house, are very good :)
CYCLOBENZAPRINE, take one at bedtime..and have a great sleep.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Based on what has happened so far this year... NADA. BY this time in that last 2 years we had already had some action.. so far this year.. nothing.

We have had unusually cold weather in the GOM, and Surfmom even came close to snow.

I know, I can't back it up with fancy diagrams and charts, but thats the feeling I have.


Well for starters your correct about the cold air intrusions this winter season in the gulf but those waters have plenty of time to heat up before we get into cane season.The caribbean for example has got the head start this season as sea surface temps are already on the rise down there and the MDR region is also slightly warmer.Iam not one of seasonal predictions but the way iam seeing things shape up i think were going to be in for a pretty active season with neutral conditions around come the heart of the season.

Remember numbers predicted are not of any importance as the ones that hit land have the greatest impact.

Adrian
Quoting Orcasystems:


You get what you pay for :)
If you created 25%, then you get 25%. How could you possibly argue with that?


Orca, my question was two fold.
How do you get to be a refugee, and how many of them will there be? Do we get 25% of 100 or 1 billion? Then lets look at the motivation side of the house. The free lunch senario.

OK, no more stirring from me. Its time to fish and watch hockey simultaneously. ( the only multi-tasking I can actually do aside from Beer and pretzels) Go Pens !
144...well said Adrian
Yikes!
Check it out at AKSnowLvr's blog
Quoting Ossqss:


Orca, my question was two fold.
How do you get to be a refugee, and how many of them will there be? Do we get 25% of 100 or 1 billion? Then lets look at the motivation side of the house. The free lunch senario.

OK, no more stirring from me. Its time to fish and watch hockey simultaneously. ( the only multi-tasking I can actually do aside from Beer and pretzels) Go Pens !


Hockey? who/where/when??
Quoting Ossqss:


Orca, my question was two fold.
How do you get to be a refugee, and how many of them will there be? Do we get 25% of 100 or 1 billion? Then lets look at the motivation side of the house. The free lunch senario.

OK, no more stirring from me. Its time to fish and watch hockey simultaneously. ( the only multi-tasking I can actually do aside from Beer and pretzels) Go Pens !


Yep pens vs flyers 12:30 lol
Quoting hahaguy:


Yep pens vs flyers 12:30 lol


Dock side TV awaits. Wind chill problem here however. Current wind chill is 78, might need a sweater. (º¿ª) §
Quoting Ossqss:


Dock side TV awaits. Wind chill problem here however. Current wind chill is 78, might need a sweater. (º¿ª) §


Lol gotta get the beer ready
Quoting Ossqss:


Dock side TV awaits. Wind chill problem here however. Current wind chill is 78, might need a sweater. ()


Wind chill?? 78??
No wind here and its 4.1 Celsius..

Here is the live cam feed from my ahhhhh Dock :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Wind chill?? 78??
No wind here and its 4.1 Celsius..



You get the meds and we get the threads.

Canada 2
USA 1
Quoting Orcasystems:
Here is the live cam feed from my ahhhhh Dock :)


Sweet, watch out for that Gator !


FISH ON!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
High Seas Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ILSA (CAT 3)
9:50 PM WDT March 22 2009
===========================

At 9:00 PM WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa, Category Three [981 hPa] located at 16.9S 98.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.2S 095.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.9S 093.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.3S 088.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/"Moderate Tropical Storm")

Remarks:
============
Ilsa persists as a severe TC with microwave imagery maintaintaining a reasonably well defined inner core of deep convection. Continuing good upper level outflow especially
poleward, and reasonably light shear is assisting the intensity of the system.

However, microwave imagery shows the overall extent of very cold cloud is decreasing though the size of the CDO in the VIS imagery still remained at about 1.75 degrees through the afternoon. TPW shows the system is becoming more isolated from deep tropical moisture and system is tracking towards cooler SSTs.

Dvorak: DT=4.5 based on Embedded Centre pattern [LG surround] and Vis CDO pattern, but MET/PT=4.0 which is FT. CI held higher at 4.5.

More consistent weakening should now become apparent over the next 12 hours as the inner core weakens and the system tracks over increasingly unfavourable waters, and as the upper level flow becomes less favourable. The system may retain gale-force intensity beyond 48 hours as motion [-13 knots] may assist in
keeping gales in southern quadrants.

A general west southwest track is expected in the next 72 hours under the influence of a persisting mid-level ridge to the south.
Quoting Ossqss:


Sweet, watch out for that Gator !


FISH ON!

I setup the the two cameras, its a lot of fun to be able to log into them from work and see whats going on..... SWMBO'ed has one aimed at the Front house area.. you can see the birds playing in the garden...I will aim it and the humming bird feeder later in the spring.
Quoting Ossqss:


Sweet, watch out for that Gator !


FISH ON!


I have some Koi in that pond that would run close to 5 lbs.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have some Koi in that pond that would run close to 5 lbs.


Please forgive me, I just could not resist.

That song just sticks in the head. ARG. Link
Quoting Ossqss:


Please forgive me, I just could not resist.



Ohhhhhh your in trouble... I'm telling on you.
SWMBO'ed may have a comment for you later :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Based on what has happened so far this year... NADA. BY this time in that last 2 years we had already had some action.. so far this year.. nothing.

We have had unusually cold weather in the GOM, and Surfmom even came close to snow.

I know, I can't back it up with fancy diagrams and charts, but thats the feeling I have.


It was 86 Degrees in Florida in the early part of February were I lived. Action isn't suppose to happen in Jan-March.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Based on what has happened so far this year... NADA. BY this time in that last 2 years we had already had some action.. so far this year.. nothing.

We have had unusually cold weather in the GOM, and Surfmom even came close to snow.

I know, I can't back it up with fancy diagrams and charts, but thats the feeling I have.


Cold air during the winter has no correlation to the season as a whole.

I've reiterated this statement numerous times on here, and I will do so again, because apparently it is required: SSTs have plenty of time to heat up once warmer air begins to move in -- at least consistent bouts of warm air. Incidentally, this has been the pattern for a few weeks now, and with winter officially over, I see no reason for this to change. Sure, occasional bursts of upper 30 nights may occur, but even that's iffy. If they do occur, they will likely be few and far between, since it is almost April.

Also, it's a known fact that SSTs heat up faster than they cool down.
Furthermore, SSTs don't matter as much as atmospheric conditions do. As long as El Nino remains absent, an active season is almost a certainty, given that we have been in an active phase since 1995.
Redoubt

2009-03-22 11:08:29
Seismicity rates have increased dramatically over the last 48 hours. Currently, the earthquake rate is about 40 to 50 events per hour. Many of these events are large enough to be recorded at the more distal stations of the Redoubt network, including NCT and DFR.

At present, much of the volcano is in view in the hut web camera and small steam/gas plume is visible.

Quoting MissNadia:
Redoubt

2009-03-22 11:08:29
Seismicity rates have increased dramatically over the last 48 hours. Currently, the earthquake rate is about 40 to 50 events per hour. Many of these events are large enough to be recorded at the more distal stations of the Redoubt network, including NCT and DFR.

At present, much of the volcano is in view in the hut web camera and small steam/gas plume is visible.

It is amazing that a mountain that looks so cold and formidable, can be so hot at it's core.
Blast from the Past...

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.



Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Blast from the Past...

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.





Wow lol
Quoting Ossqss:


Sweet, watch out for that Gator !


FISH ON!


ROTHFLMBO!!!!!!!! I wonder if I could Fedex one up, w/glitter!! along with the shark you sent down here.
Redoubt is looking a lot more active......

REDOUBT VOLCANO (CAVW #1103-03-)
6029'7" N 15244'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

AVO raised the aviation color code to Orange and the alert level to Watch last night at 10:09PM AKDT (March 21) based on an increase in the rate of discrete seismic events. Shallow earthquake activity under the volcano has been as high as 26 events per 10-minute period. Activity is primarily seen on the stations nearest the summit, though some events are also recorded at farther-out stations. This activity likely represents either the upward movement of magma or pressurization of the system. No eruption has occurred.

It is possible for unrest at the volcano to change rapidly, and seismic activity or other signs of unrest could escalate culminating in an eruption within days to weeks.
Redoubt Summit Glacier Melting....
A Severe Weather Threat seems very likely starting early tomorrow for Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas first. Followed by late evening in the Northern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama! These areas need to monitor this developing Threat! Turn your Weather Radios on tonite before going to Bed!
Hey everyone its not often i post out of season but i just wanted to see how everyone was doing....hope we have a fun but not too dangerous season coming up....After feeling the effects of Gustav and Ike i hope it is a quiet year here in south Louisiana
I just updated my Web site if anyone would like to view! Severe Weather in the forecast!

TampaSpins Wed Link
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-22 19:45:39

Over the last hour, the rate of seismic events has increased to the highest levels seen within the last 48 hours. We are watching the events closely and continue to staff the observatory 24 hours per day. The webcam view is still obscured by clouds.
Bad news for Anchorage if Redoubt erupts now.....

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-22 21:32:08

Over the last two hours, seismicity at Redoubt has increased significantly.
No eruption has yet occurred, however at these heightened levels of seismicity, there could be a quick escalation to eruptive activity.
I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest that something has happened or about to happen on Redoubt! Nothing confirmed from AVO but, wow the above is very impressive.
Definitely looks like harmonic tremor to me. I'm no expert or novice at analyzing a seismograph but it looks like that volcano is ready to erupt.
Maybe I'll get some good pics at sunset, like I did for Kasatochi.
Sulli every webicoder is nearly a solid bar of Blue.....I would love to go to bed.....but i don't want to miss if something is happening as it appears.
Why do I get a feeling that global warming is not occurring in my area--the Pacific Northwest. We are on our 20th day of being below seasonal norms for temperature.

Snow just last Monday-a week ago and no extension for getting studded tires off! Go figure! Early am temp was below freezing!

Still keeping the fires going...

Puddled in the pnw
Nature has a funny way of toying around.

The last time they dropped Redoubt to yellow, it was increased the very next day because of increased unrest. Now this happens:


Tremor amplitude has increased over the last several hours.

2009-03-19 11:08:29
The large seismic event seen on the Redoubt Webicorder plots shortly after 19 March at 10:30 AM AKDT is from a distant M7.7 earthquake near Tonga. The event is seen on stations throughout Alaska and is not related to activity at Redoubt Volcano.

2009-03-18 10:33:49

The Alaska Volcano Observatory has lowered the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Alert Level to Advisory for Mount Redoubt.

AVO will continue to monitor Redoubt closely, but will no longer be formally staffed 24 hours per day.

This will be the last hourly (or bi-hourly) update until further notice.



Right after that Tonga quake the volcano woke back up.
alaska_avoNo eruption has yet occurred, however at these heightened levels of seismicity, there could be a quick escalation to eruptive activity.
2 minutes ago from TwitterMail
I would suggest that Lava is on its way up.....

Hmmmm...

Redoubt Activity - Color Code RED : Alert Level WARNING
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-22 23:02:22

An eruption of Mt. Redoubt began at approximately 22:38 AKDT, March 22, 2009 (0638 UTC). AVO is raising the aviation color code to Red and the alert level to Warning. Initial height of the eruption cloud is estimated at less than 20,000 ft above sea level at present. Further reports will be issued as more information becomes available.
Wow look at this.....

IT's on....
Sulli that is some explosion....and at the worst time for Anchorage.....its heading straight at them.....BAD, BAD!
Looks like a sizeable puff, but nothing huge...yet.
This is a Major eruption......WOW!

2009-03-22 23:20:21

Current estimate for eruption cloud height are 50,000 ft above sea level.
Wow!!

That's pretty crazy. I would think something that big would have looked bigger on radar (though I never really watched an eruption on radar before).
Wouldn't the NWS have issued an ashfall advisory by now?
Hey MPerfect......this will change Weather Patterns big time......
Good evening, MP.

It appears we're having an eruption. I wonder if it'll be anything close to Kasatochi.
Quoting sullivanweather:
Wouldn't the NWS have issued an ashfall advisory by now?


One would think so, but i can do it look at post 177! Anchorge is in Trouble, Big Time!
Evening Everyone!! WOW news flash huh?
Hey Fish!!

Pretty crazy, huh?

I checked AKsnowlover's blog when I got home earlier and said to myself, something's happening. Left a comment there and been watching this ever since.
Follow these updates on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/alaska_avo
Sully I popped in your blog real quick earlier this afternoon. Did not see the details but, my condolences my friend, for whoever the family member it was u lost....:(
Projected path......

AVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice

Volcano: Redoubt (CAVW #1103-03-)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING

Current Aviation Color Code: RED

Issued: Sunday, March 22, 2009, 11:26 PM AKDT (20090322/0726Z)
Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2009/A12
Location: N 60 deg 29 min W 152 deg 44 min
Elevation: 10197 ft (3108 m)
Area: Cook Inlet-South Central Alaska

Volcanic Activity Summary: The eruption of Mt. Redoubt continues. The height of the eruption cloud is estimated to be 50,000 ft above sea level. Further reports will be issued as more information becomes available.

Recent Observations:
[Volcanic cloud height] The height of the eruption cloud is estimated to be 50,000 ft above sea level. Further reports will be issued as more information becomes available.
[Other volcanic cloud information] Nil
[Mudflow] Mudflows are possible on Drift and Crescent Rivers.
[Ash fall] Ashfall likely in the vicinity of and downwind from the volcano.
...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED AN ASHFALL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY.

REDOUBT VOLCANO AT 60.5N 152.7W HAS ERUPTED AT AROUND 1040 PM
AKDT. VOLCANIC ASH IS FALLING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ASHFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ASHFALL ADVISORY MEANS THAT ASH WILL BE DEPOSITED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN AREAS OF ASHFALL SHOULD SEAL WINDOWS AND
DOORS. PROTECT ELECTRONICS AND COVER AIR INTAKES AND OPEN WATER
SUPPLIES. MINIMIZE DRIVING. LISTEN TO YOUR RADIO STATION FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 1.5
Date-Time Monday, March 23, 2009 at 07:19:00 UTC
Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 11:19:00 PM at epicenter

Location 61.035°N, 150.617°W
Depth 28 km (17.4 miles)
Thanks, bro.

I lost my uncle John yesterday. I'm not taking it too well. I spent a pretty good chunk of my childhood with him and my grandmother.

When a family member dies and you sit back and take that time to reflect on the impact they've had on your life growing up and what your interests are in the present, I must say he played a significant part. He very much supported my interest in weather and astronomy. Being involved with computers at an early age I can thank him for. I can say without a doubt I would of never had a computer if not for him. My parents couldn't afford anything such as that. Getting out and playing golf every once and awhile I can thank him for.

After high school we'd only see each other during holidays are when the family would get together for dinner, so not very often. But I swear, on all those occasions I can recall what we did because he was that vibrant of a person. Always doing something. Playing golf in the snow. Taking Kate and I for flying lessons. Outside having a cigarette on Christmas Eve in the freezing cold naming constellations.

He also served in two branches of the military. A very distinguished man and extremely intelligent but was always calm and reserved.

This is for an Eruption of 50,000ft........

Nice. I check in tonight to see whatz up with the blog and you guys are triggering a volcano up North.
Once again so sorry for your loss sull! I know it does not make it any better but, just the same. Speaking of astronomy, I am getting the bug too. Been speaking with Cal quite a bit lately & ordered a telescope. Had to return 1st one & got the new one yesterday. Figures freakin clouds ever since...LOL
I should get a new scope. It's always dark dark DARK where I live. I could see some pretty dim stars here. Not outback dark but dark enough.
LOL Well you know I live in the land of the pink suns but, I did get to look through the 1st scope a little before I returned it. Saw the moon super super clear, saturn(rather small, wrong eyepiece) & a freakin awesome cluster of stars I cant WAIT to go looking for again....
I'd love to get one of those night sky cameras that you set out in the yard and record the sky for shooting stars.
Meade ETX-80AT-TC Astro Telescope with AutoStar

This is the one I got. Good beginners scope & should be good to learn on..
That's nice!!!

I think I want me one of thems...
Another burst coming out of Redoubt!
WOW

500 dollars -_-'
Yea I gotta say not "too" bad on the price & I did run it by Cal 1st & he said it was a good choice to get my feet wet. Telling u even with all the light pollution here, I did see quite a bit so far. Thats only with 2 eyepieces also..
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
WOW

500 dollars -_-'


the scope??
Fsh ya, from that link you gave
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-23 00:30:12
As of 12:27AM March 23, 2009, AVO has recorded three large explosions at Redoubt volcano at the following times:
March 22 10:38PM
March 22 11:02PM
March 23 00:14AM


*edit - LOL OOPS
Ummmm Hades, its $249.99??? lol
Allrighty everyone. I think I'ma head out for the night.

PEACE!
PEACE SULLY!
oh the sale's price online. Wasn't sure if you bought it online.
Well ordered it over the phone but, through the site..
Good morning!

It is going to be an active severe weather week with the first episode beginning later this afternoon in Kansas and Oklahoma:



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PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA...MISSOURI...IOWA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120
MPH...WILL SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG SURFACE LOW NOW IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
COMPARED TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED...ROTATING STORMS CALLED SUPERCELLS.
SHOULD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS FORM...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE TUESDAY IN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION...THE BULK OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

..CORFIDI.. 03/23/2009

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If this tells me anything, that La Nina conditions have drastically appeared in the last few weeks starting in early march.
232. CeBas
La Nina is trying to make a comebake. It's trying to hold its strength.
Sorry to hear about Sullivan's uncle.
The volcano is exciting. Is the ash plume hiting or headed toward any populous areas? I don't even know that those time zones stand for except Alaska.
Northeast Florida is getting a bit of a drought break thanks to some slow creeping rain from the southeast. I can't think of the last time we got rain from the south east, that wasn't a part of a tropical cyclone rotation. It might be just my observations but I am greatful for any rain we can get. A welcome surprise.
P.S. Does all that upwelling, bringing the cold water to the surface for La Nina, help fishing in Costa Rica?
235. CeBas
The La Nina will still weaken, but we will be on the very warm side of the neutral phase by September. We will have very weak El Nino conditions by late November/early December. The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be a very active one. Get ready and brace yourselves! Forget 2010 because the El Nino will strengthen during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
240 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2009

AKZ145-231600-
/X.EXT.PAFC.AF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090323T1600Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
240 AM AKDT MON MAR 23 2009

...ASHFALL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

THE ASHFALL ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING.

REDOUBT VOLCANO AT 60.5N 152.7W HAS ERUPTED SEVERAL TIMES DURING
THE NIGHT. LIGHT ASHFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT SKWENTNA.
LIGHT ASHFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ASHFALL ADVISORY MEANS THAT ASH WILL BE DEPOSITED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN AREAS OF ASHFALL SHOULD SEAL WINDOWS AND
DOORS. PROTECT ELECTRONICS AND COVER AIR INTAKES AND OPEN WATER
SUPPLIES. MINIMIZE DRIVING. LISTEN TO YOUR RADIO STATION FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
237. CeBas
I just notice that if a cyclone forms near Australia, they move away from land out to sea. Is the La Nina effecting the steering currents of the cyclones?
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Florida is finally getting some much needed rain :)

239. GBlet
BOY, it's a good thing that I am chunky, otherwise I would be a resident of Nebraska this morning! Gee, they say the wind is gonna pick up as the front moves in. YIPPY!
Did Tonga and Indonesia's recent activity play a role in nudging Redoubt to erupt? Call it a tectonic frontal system ?


Posted this on the last blog,
over the past few weeks the La Nina hasn't weekend it has infact drastically re-appeared, you can see by the anomoly chart it shows how it warmed, then starting around the 9th the anomolys have chilled, and this can also be visible on the SST maps.