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99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I say we have a TD at 11 tomorrow morning.
Quoting sunlinepr:


But the real is that Dry Air and shear are moving it somehow away from Yucatan...



That is actually the subtropical jet-stream.



Quoting JLPR2:
So is 99L shrinking?
Seems to be concentrating on a smaller area, maybe Paula's cousin? XD

it's consolidationg, shrinking, and will be able to intensify faster due to it's size, it will be a td at the 5 am or a special advisory will be issued in the next hour or two.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Given the time frame that is rather consistent.


I don't know how the models see things evolving. The Yuctan? What! This thing is screaming east-northeastward right now with a very obvious trough over the eastern US steering it. This is not going to go west anytime soon, looks more like eastern Cuba/Jamaica to me.
Nite all
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Good early morning here just after midnight,

Hot off the press, my full history of 99L from its birth till right now (so you can see its origins), followed by some predictions!


Excelent analysis
If you count Otto, we have had Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula form in the Caribbean region. If 99L pulls off this stunt, it'll be the FIFTH tropical cyclone in a row to form in the Caribbean region. Wow!
Quoting sunlinepr:


Excelent analysis


Thanks for the comment. Feeling good about that analysis.
Pinball! 99L is the Ball and the HP areas are the bumpers. The troth is that spot you keep trying to bump the ball into.

Need the rain in North Florida, but not wishing for a major.
Is that apparent eastward motion real or just the optical illusion created by shear?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nite all

G'night!
Two models now develop 99L
GFDL leaves it between Yucatan & Cuba




HWRF sends it to Yucatan


While CMC puts it as a Low in the Gom and presents 2 systems one S of PR and another in the CAT


Quoting scooster67:
Pinball! 99L is the Ball and the HP areas are the bumpers. The troth is that spot you keep trying to bump the ball into.

Need the rain in North Florida, but not wishing for a major.


But the trough is eroding away the ridge to 99L's northeast, so it doesn't look like it'll go that far north. Sorry, don't see this bringing much help with the lack of rain in FL. Yeah the ridge might help with some northward deflection in track, but not that far north.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I don't know how the models see things evolving. The Yuctan? What! This thing is screaming east-northeastward right now with a very obvious trough over the eastern US steering it. This is not going to go west anytime soon, looks more like eastern Cuba/Jamaica to me.


99L has room to move east until hitting the ridge to the east.

Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Is that apparent eastward motion real or just the optical illusion created by shear?


Its moving eastward. Check out this shortwave IR sat. loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

Notice that the black clouds are the low-level clouds, and the blueish clouds are the higher cloud tops. If this thing was stationary with shear giving the illusion of an eastward motion, you would see a distinct swirl of black clouds seperating from the blue clouds as the sheared-off blue clouds leave the black swirl behind.

But with 99L, both the black cloud spin and the blue cloud spin are moving in tandem to the east-northeast.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


99L has room to move east until hitting the ridge to the east.



The ridge has had some eastward displacement as the trough has knocked it somewhat. Yeah, 99L will go east, but it seems then it'll turn NE into E Cuba and then E Bahamas.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The ridge has had some eastward displacement as the trough has knocked it somewhat. Yeah, 99L will go east, but it seems then it'll turn NE into E Cuba and then E Bahamas.


To clarify, I mean that the ridge will turn the track from E to NE, which would then send it into E Cuba and E Bahamas. I don't see how those ridge countours suggest it'll go E, then turn NW or even W toward the Yucatan. This ridge is simply not shaped to turn this thing to the NW or W.
invest 99l looking better then the yankees are!!!!hahaha,.,
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The ridge has had some eastward displacement as the trough has knocked it somewhat. Yeah, 99L will go east, but it seems then it'll turn NE into E Cuba and then E Bahamas.


What trough?
Seems like when 99L gets trapped between those two converging DA masses, it will stall and develop.....

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


What trough?


Check out this water vapor loop of the entire North Atlantic Basin:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

During the loop, click on the HDW-H (upper-level wind vectors) check box and the Lat/Lon check boxes. There is a very massive upper trough across eastern North America between 100W and 70W longitude. This can be seen by the v-shape in the water vapor motions and the massive collection of HDW-H wind vectors. The massive trough is moving eastward.

Any standard upper trough in the westerlies has upper divergence on its east side, which reduces surface pressure below. As the upper trough's divergence overspreads the low-level ridge, the ridge will gradually weaken (erode). So, I am wondering how that low-level ridge will be strong enough to deflect 99L NW or WNW when the ridge is struggling due the massive trough over eastern N America.
you guy also need to know that 99L is getting shear at 5-10 kt
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
you guy also need to know that 99L is getting shear at 5-10 kt


What's the critical value of shear in kts when we say that tropical cyclone development is no longer possible. I do observe the shear, which I understand to be moderate, but not strong enough to prevent 99L from forming into a tropical cyclone (but no rapid intensification).
well, .....Not much convection, but some spin in this area...

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Check out this water vapor loop of the entire North Atlantic Basin:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

During the loop, click on the HDW-H (upper-level wind vectors) check box and the Lat/Lon check boxes. There is a very massive upper trough across eastern North America between 100W and 70W longitude. This can be seen by the v-shape in the water vapor motions and the massive collection of HDW-H wind vectors. The massive trough is moving eastward.

Any standard upper trough in the westerlies has upper divergence on its east side, which reduces surface pressure below. As the upper trough's divergence overspreads the low-level ridge, the ridge will gradually weaken (erode). So, I am wondering how that low-level ridge will be strong enough to deflect 99L NW or WNW when the ridge is struggling due the massive trough over eastern N America.


200HPA (SubTropical Jet)

Quoting sunlinepr:
well, .....Not much convection, but some spin in this area...



Yeah, watching that area of spin just for fun, this area was actually mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook a couple of days ago, and then was removed from the outlook when its storm activity did a disappearing act.

Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
invest 99l looking better then the yankees are!!!!hahaha,.,


You think 99L looks swank? Typhoon Megi looks swanker! Wow, God Bless the folks in the Philippines who got the brunt of that monster!
25N 40W Spin Area, Interesting Shape keeps on going....

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


200HPA (SubTropical Jet)



Isn't that jet generated by the temperature contrasts associated with the upper trough? There is cold air beneath the upper trough, with warmth over the tropics to the south of the upper trough. Surface contrasts in temperature lead to upper-level wind jets. So, isn't that subtropical jet due to the fact that the upper trough exists?
1032. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
well, .....Not much convection, but some spin in this area...



Not just spin but an elongated closed area of low pressure.

But lacking convection, but as you pointed out it is interesting to watch.
Quoting sunlinepr:
25N 40W Spin Area, Interesting Shape keeps on going....



Yep, 1009 mb low on TAFB surface analysis at the location:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Check out this water vapor loop of the entire North Atlantic Basin:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html


That's a good point of view; sometimes we concentrate in local satellite images (micro view), forgeting that the macro has also a very influencing effect and should be considered....
1035. JLPR2
Well 99L is starting to look TD-ish XD

Quoting sunlinepr:
25N 40W Spin Area, Interesting Shape keeps on going....



Yeah, neat little disturbance it is. I have been watching it for a few days. I am still a little confused as to whether it came from an African tropical wave or not. Right now, thinking this was not the case. My rough draft report on that system:

"An enhanced area of thunderstorms developed in the open tropical Atlantic Ocean, in the vicinity of 35 west longitude and 10 north latitude beginning on October 15. Although disturbed weather in this region is typically associated with tropical waves of African origin, it appears this activity was supported by a combination of surface convergence from the ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) coupled with divergence from a large mid-ocean upper trough. The storm activity weakened as the supportive divergence left the area while the upper trough lifted northeastward. However, a weak surface low was leftover from the storm activity, and the low began drifting westward while deep-layered subtropical ridging became established to the north."
Quoting JLPR2:
Well 99L is starting to look TD-ish XD



Yeah, a really small TD, LOL!
Interesting fact is that Puerto Rico, has never been more than 12 years without a direct Hurricane landfall..... Our last visit was Georges in 1998 and this year we are "supposed" to break that 12 year period statistic. Well, we will see.....

(Georges made landfall on the island on September 22 1998 as a Category 3-hurricane. Georges caused $2 billion)

1039. JRRP
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Isn't that jet generated by the temperature contrasts associated with the upper trough? There is cold air beneath the upper trough, with warmth over the tropics to the south of the upper trough. Surface contrasts in temperature lead to upper-level wind jets. So, isn't that subtropical jet due to the fact that the upper trough exists?


Latest surface analysis.

Quoting sunlinepr:
Interesting fact is that Puerto Rico, has never been more than 12 years without a direct Hurricane landfall..... Our last visit was Georges in 1998 and this year we are "supposed" to break that 12 year period statistic. Well, we will see.....

(Georges made landfall on the island on September 22 1998 as a Category 3-hurricane. Georges caused $2 billion)



You guys came darn close to breaking that "quiet" period with Jeanne in 2004. It made landfall across Puerto Rico just below hurricane force, and then became a hurricnae right after leaving Puerto Rico.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Latest surface analysis.



Yeah, surface anlaysis also confirms the upper trough (LOL, I am probably annoying you know with this upper trough :) ). The divergence along the upper trough is supporting that 1011 mb low along NC, and that cold front (a cold front is a surface band of surface low pressure that features air mass contrasts).

South of the cold front is high air mass contrasts. The air mass contrast at the surface is leading to the subtropical jet you see. The subtropical jet that you highlighted is pretty much parallel to the cold front, right? And this jet wouldn't exist if it weren't for the upper trough and the surface cold front its supporting.
Good nite, thanks for your support,,, and keep the Watcher of the skies job....
Quoting sunlinepr:
Good nite, thanks for your support,,, and keep the Watcher of the skies job....


Good night
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Latest surface analysis.



Also, I do see the 1022 mb ridge, which looks like it'll impart some norhtward deflection in 99L's track. But look at the red arrow, which forecasts the 1022 mb ridge to shift NE in advance of the big E US upper trough.
Yawn, 5-minutes since anyone posted, looks like we're getting sleepy LOL.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Also, I do see the 1022 mb ridge, which looks like it'll impart some norhtward deflection in 99L's track. But look at the red arrow, which forecasts the 1022 mb ridge to shift NE in advance of the big E US upper trough.


This was a good discussion out of CS Maryland.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010 Link

FARTHER EAST...THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INITIALIZE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN/ GREATER ANTILLES. LIFTING OVER THIS AXIS...THE MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL THEN
SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 48-60
HRS...TO THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HRS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FLATTENING THIS AXIS WHILE DISPLACING IT
SOUTH. AT 500 HPA THE RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO CELLS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED ONE OVER MEXICO/WESTERN GULF AND A NEW ONE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FAVOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

AT LOW LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
CELLS BUILDING/TRAINING ACROSS JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLANDS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAKE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS SYSTEM...AS
THEY TRY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SO THIS REMAINS A
HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST. ALSO NOTE THAT THE NHC IS EVALUATING
THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND
THEY WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS IT WILL SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH MAXIMA TO SURGE TO
35-70MM/DAY BETWEEN 36-72 HRS. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH 36
HRS...TO DECREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY THROUGH 48-72 HRS. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CUBA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 24 HRS. BY 24-48 HRS THE MAXIMA
WILL INCREASE TO 35-70MM/DAY.
Yep, I see that discussion supporting the trough theory:

THE MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL THEN
SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 48-60
HRS...
TO THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HRS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
...

MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAKE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS SYSTEM...AS
THEY TRY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Yep, I see that discussion supporting the trough theory:

THE MODELS
SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHICH SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL THEN
SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 48-60
HRS...
TO THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HRS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
...

MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAKE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE CORRECTIONS TO THIS SYSTEM...AS
THEY TRY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
.


Yes, just pointing out your correctness. GFDL track is not looking too bad ATM.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Yes, just pointing out your correctness. GFDL track is not looking too bad ATM.


What's the GDFL showing? LOL, I keep losing my links to computer model sites. And when I do find such sites, they are crummy, LOL.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What's the GDFL showing? LOL, I keep losing my links to computer model sites. And when I do find such sites, they are crummy, LOL.


GFDL
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


GFDL


Thanks for that. Now I see what at least this model wants to say. In the short-term, it drags 99L ENE toward eastern Cuba thanks to the aftorementioned upper trough. But the upper convergence on the back side of the upper trough supports a new ridge popping up over the central US, with this ridge then turning 99L WNW just in the nick of time before it makes landfall in eastern Cuba. Then, the central US ridge steers 99L WNW parallel to the S coast of Cuba till it makes landfall in the western tip of Cuba.

In short, GFDL is saying that 99L will miss the current ridge weakness and turn back toward the WNW later after missing the weakness.
With that, I'll be signing off now understanding what some of the models do with 99L in the long range. Definetly something to keep us afoot here in the Atlantic basin,

Good night,
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
invest 99l looking better then the yankees are!!!!hahaha,.,

lol yup...go rangers!!!
1055. JLPR2
99L will probably gain a name tomorrow since I wont be home till 9pm, :\ LOL!

I'm going to a conference by Stephen Alvarez, a photographer of National Geographic at my university and that's till 9pm.
I'm looking forward to it but suffering about the time chosen for it 6-9pm. :(

Well, night all!
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
two same marginally favorable with 5-10 kts shear lol brown
Both Megi and 99L are entraining dry air.

""

""

989 DaaiTouLaam "I think the camel is trying to sneak its nose under the edge of the tent.
[map posted from] 256km radar for Hong Kong Observatory
and no official standby signal for a typhoon! (i.e. not even a hurricane watch posted yet)
"

Considering how unreliable forecasts of over 72hours are, posting a Watch now could easily be considered a bit premature.

Though the numbers should be updated soon (but since JTWC is unreliable on the when), using the coordinates supplied by the WeatherUnderground for 19Oct,12amGMT thru 19Oct,12amGMT
SuperTyphoonMegi

Copy&paste 16.3n119.0e-16.5n118.4e, 16.5n118.4e-16.7n117.9e, 16.7n117.9e-17.0n117.6e, 17.0n117.6e-17.2n117.3e, 17.2n117.3e-21.37n110.73e, zha, 17.2n117.3e-hkg into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances travelled over the last 24^hours.

^ Each of the 4 eastern line-segments individually spans 6hours of Megi's path.
The westernmost line-segment is a straightline projection of the speed&heading averaged
over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions extended to landfall:
~5days4hours from now to Wuchuan,Zhanjiang,Guangdong,China

And on a more northward path, ~4days2hours from now to HongKong
Admittedly that 4mph(6.4km/h) is a slow travel speed for a TropicalCyclone.
Invest 99L
18Oct 06amGMT - 13.7n81.4w - 20knots - 1010mb - ATCF*14.0n81.8w*14.3n81.8w*13.8n81.5w
18Oct 12pmGMT - 14.1n81.8w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.1n82.5w*15.0n82.4w*14.1n81.9w
18Oct 06pmGMT - 14.6n82.3w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.7n83.2w*14.5n82.2w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.3n82.8w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w*15.1n82.7w
19Oct 06amGMT - 16.0n83.1w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.7n83.0w*1008mb*15.8n82.9w
19Oct 12pmGMT - 16.7n83.3w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*16.5n83.3w*1008mb*16.5n83.0w
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w*1009mb
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.7n83.2w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.6n83.4w
20Oct 06amGMT - 17.8n82.9w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
20knots=~37km/h _ 25knots=46.3km/h _ 30knots=~55.6km/h

Copy&paste 13.7n81.4w, 14.1n81.8w, 14.6n82.3w, 15.3n82.8w, 16.0n83.1w-16.7n83.3w, 16.7n83.3w-17.4n83.4w, 17.4n83.4w-17.7n83.2w, 17.7n83.2w-17.8n82.9w, ctm, cyo into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours

Looking at the 20Oct,12amGMT coordinate revision, those here who detected a more eastward movement after 20Oct,06pmGMT were apparently correct.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, a really small TD, LOL!



doesn't look too small to me.

Link


jsl shows considerable strengthening is occurring. also keep in mind this storm started with a very broad low pressure area. within that large circumference there were a number of low pressure pockets. it has taken time to organize the different pockets but now that it has low level closed circulation all of those pockets have ceased combating each other for superiority and this appears to now be growing in intensity. the fact that is is creeping due east is also a sign of potential development. it will buy it time to strengthen and avoid land.

don't underestimate this storm. it has a long time to grow before being pulled north by a trough. i agree with the models calling this thing a loop-de-loop for the next 24-36 hrs. however, like i say don't up-cast this but also be careful with it. it has a broad low pressure zone so it's potential to grow into a large hurricane is substantially greater than say a gustav or paula.
in addition look at the wind shear tendency.



Link

it shows an increase of wind shear to the north over the yucatan. beyond that north of the small weak pocket there is a considerable decrease in wind shear across the GOM. the wind shear moving west is not necessarily as strong as the wind shear that has been in the GOM for the past 2 weeks.


This may mean that the storm will have an increased period of time to strengthen before it makes its move north. the wind shear isn't so strong it will interfere with development yet it is strong enough to keep it in the caribbean for a while.
99L isn't looking too good at the moment. You can see the center exposed to the W of the convection. That pocket of increasing shear to the N is making it rough on this invest. Going to be a while before this becomes a named storm imo. Shows you why the GFS and ECMWF are not doing much with this system. Link
1064. ackee
ITS raining here in jamaica looks like SOON TO TD#19 ? or R might rhiard might take us like suprise not met serice had issue flash flood warning hope starts to move by west soon
Megi is leaving:
This is a TD


While yes, dry air is inhibiting further development. We all can't forget what Paula did when she was surrounded by dry air, she strengthened into a Category 2 storm. This should be designated by later this morning if trends continue. You see some small, but nice banding northeast of the LLC.
A very good reason why the center is exposed, shear of 20-30 knots hammering the western side. The anticyclone is not really on top of this yet, could be in a few days. Stuff like this can grow fast in warm waters and ideal conditions, which could be in place for 99L soon. Right now, shear is impacting the system. Dry air is not much of an issue, I disagree with some on here. Shear is the main issue.
I'm not so sure I buy the GFDL track, but it will be very interesting to see what happens with 99L, and when. Too, while I can understand what GFDL is seeing--and what was explained very nicely by NCHurricane2009--it's difficult to look at the LSU WV loop in #1021 and not see the squeeze play being put on. Finally, if it keeps moving east at this latitude, it's going to run into the Jamaican Alps later, and at its slow speed and compact size, that would probably signal its doom.

Having said all, that, however: 99L does look pretty good this morning. Dense and consolidated convection, quickening spin, great inflow on the south and east. I wouuld guess this is aready a TD, if not a TS, and as such may be designated as one or the other at the 8AM TWO.
agreed Neapolitan
1072. ackee
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not so sure I buy the GFDL track, but it will be very interesting to see what happens with 99L, and when. Too, while I can understand what GFDL is seeing--and what was explained very nicely by NCHurricane2009--it's difficult to look at the LSU WV loop in #1021 and not see the squeeze play being put on. Finally, if it keeps moving east at this latitude, it's going to run into the Jamaican Alps later, and at its slow speed and compact size, that would probably signal its doom.

Having said all, that, however: 99L does look pretty good this morning. Dense and consolidated convection, quickening spin, great inflow on the south and east. I wouuld guess this is aready a TD, if not a TS, and as such may be designated as one or the other at the 8AM TWO.
agress think this is already a I guessing watch or warning will be posted for jamaica or caymans
1073. shikori


Now thats it.
I do think that this is trending a bit north still to go directly over Jamaica, so not sure if land interaction will weaken the system. He'd have to begin moving more east to feel the effects of those higher elevations. Anything can happen, but a named storm should be coming any moment as the convection has finally blown up and that was probably the only factor missing for the NHC....
1076. shikori
GFDL is saying this already has TS winds, and since it has been right track wise and it might also seem intensity wise it will continue to move ne towards Jamaica while strengthening, before turning north then wnw spelling doom for Cayman if the intensity follows.
99L's rather small. That would explain why the models have done so poor on this system.
I don't know how this hasn't been named yet I expect Richard at 11 am
1079. ackee
I think 99L will be upgraded at 11am to TD #19 the GFDL seem to be only model on taget with 99L
Quoting shikori:
GFDL is saying this already has TS winds, and since it has been right track wise and it might also seem intensity wise it will continue to move ne towards Jamaica while strengthening, before turning north then wnw spelling doom for Cayman if the intensity follows.


It seems to me that where this system is positioning itself it could do a lot of damage to the North Coast here in Jamaica before it turns wnw. It does not seem that the mountains here will hinder the development of Richard.
1081. shikori
The good news is, if it becomes a cat4 and squeezes between Cuba and the Yucatan, sheer and dry air are likely to take him down a notch.
1083. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 18N83W WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN DRIFT SW AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA OVER THE
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
.............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE N GULF. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE U.S. FRI COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE S WINDS OVER THE NW GULF FRI
THRUGH SUN.
GFDL went nuts with 99L.. makes it a borderline Category 5 going into the Gulf.
Where is Pre-Richard's center? Could someone put a circle over it?
GFDL is interesting Eastward movement predicted and currently happening. we will see if the exposed center slides back under the expanding convection. next 24hrs will be very very ket to the intensity or lack thereof
1087. IKE
Center of 99L is completely exposed. Looks near 18N and 83W.

NHC is not going to upgrade a naked swirl.
Finally someone else sees the OBVIOUS shear Ive meen mentioning since yesterday morning
Good Morning

A nice little tropical storm (not Hurricane) would be great for us here in NE Fl. That coud bring some rain even to the east fl coast, becoming a very dry place here. Dry = fires
1090. shikori
They will be forced to. After all, they said that if 99l gains a good burst of convection it would make it a TD. They mentioned nothing of convection wrapping around.
How far north can 99 go. Been looking at the models one a day for a while. Bottom line. The models have nfi where 99 is going!
Quoting IKE:
Center of 99L is completely exposed. Looks near 18N and 83W.

NHC is not going to upgrade a naked swirl.

ATCF placed the center at 17.8N/82.9W at 2:30 EDT; in the four hours since then, the center has moved even farther east. I think shear is getting close to exposing the CoC, but that hasn't actually happened yet, although visible images in the next hour will really tell the tale.
If GFDL is correct I find this to be very interesting.

GFDL
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:
If GFDL is correct I find this to be very interesting.

GFDL


That shows it hitting the "clear shot chanel" into the gulf?
1095. ackee
I am noticeing the last few frames where 99L centre was located does seem like trying to relocate under the convection guess we see when when hurricane hunter go out there this may be another Gustav in the making
Quoting Autistic2:


That shows it hitting the "clear shot chanel" into the gulf?
As a Cat 5.
1097. shikori
Quoting ackee:
I am noticeing the last few frames where 99L centre was located does seem like trying to relocate under the convection guess we see when when hurricane hunter go out there this may be another Gustav in the making


The GFDL also predicted that

notice the center divides and one moves on.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
As a Cat 5.


The chanel, maybee, cat 5 me no think so! Everything has to be just WRONG for cat 5. 1 or 2 yea maybee,
Quoting ackee:
I am noticeing the last few frames where 99L centre was located does seem like trying to relocate under the convection guess we see when when hurricane hunter go out there this may be another Gustav in the making


Yes, Gustav was not very nice to us.
1100. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Yes, Gustav was not very nice to us.


News just in...a little boy washed away in a river in St. Cathering, Jamaica. Seems to be casualty number 1. The skies in Kingston looking ominous.
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Yes, Gustav was not very nice to us.
Us either but I am thinking Paloma.
1103. scott39
Goodmorning, Tropical Atlantic has 99L moving ENE. GFS and Euro are out to lunch and dinner on 99L! GFDL is looking more and more like the one to follow.
1104. IKE
Looks like 20+ knots of WSW shear affecting 99L....at the coordinates of 18N and 83W...

1105. shikori
Stormwatcher what are the winds like outside. I cant depend on caymanchillin's weather station. It seems something is wrong with it's wind vane winds are 0mph and its saying the direction is NNW stil. How can you tall wind direction if there is no wind?
1106. shikori
Quoting IKE:
Looks like 20+ knots of WSW shear affecting 99L....at the coordinates of 18N and 83W...



Doesn't stop development on the east side.
Quoting shikori:
Stormwatcher what are the winds like outside. I cant depend on caymanchillin's weather station. It seems something is wrong with it's wind vane winds are 0mph and its saying the direction is NNW stil. How can you tall wind direction if there is no wind?
Gusts every once in a while maybe 15-20 mph but pretty calm right now. Heavy rain though.
1108. ackee
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


News just in...a little boy washed away in a river in St. Cathering, Jamaica. Seems to be casualty number 1. The skies in Kingston looking ominous.
the sky look the here in ST.catherine
1109. ackee
it will be intresting to see what NHC say at 8am
Quoting ackee:
it will be intresting to see what NHC say at 8am
I am wondering what the update here is going to say. All the schools have flooding issues but the next update is at 7 am local time and the school bus picks up the kids in the Eastern districts around 6:30 so I guess they will go for the trip to be sent back home. LOL
1111. shikori
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am wondering what the update here is going to say. All the schools have flooding issues but the next update is at 7 am local time and the school bus picks up the kids in the Eastern districts around 6:30 so I guess they will go for the trip to be sent back home. LOL


Like last time. This is why I am calling my buddy to bring back my game to school today.
1112. scott39
99L is moving ENE in the short term just like the GFDL and HWRF are forecasting. It will then be pushed back to the WNW and NW later.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like 20+ knots of WSW shear affecting 99L....at the coordinates of 18N and 83W...



And 99L continues to slowly organize.
Quoting shikori:


Like last time. This is why I am calling my buddy to bring back my game to school today.
Where do you go to school ?
1115. scott39
99L is not at 82.9W anymore. Its farther E IMO.
1116. shikori
JGHS
Quoting shikori:
JGHS
My grandson is at CHHS and both of them flood bad.
ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 101019180000
2010101918
17.4 276.6
20.7 276.0
100
17.4 276.6
200000
1010200000
1
WTNT21 KNGU 200000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5N 83.5W TO 20.8N 84.0W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OF A LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 9 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 90 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 210000Z.//

Quoting scott39:
99L is moving ENE in the short term just like the GFDL and HWRF are forecasting. It will then be pushed back to the WNW and NW later.


Very interesting that the GFDL has been right on with track so far. Some folks on here had this fizzling over Panama, the Nicaragua, then Honduras and look where it is at now. I do believe it will begin some sort of a west to northwest movement but the long term track is very much in doubt.
1123. shikori
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
My grandson is at CHHS and both of them flood bad.


Not to mention JGHS if rains are torrential for an hour water almost overtakes all the corridors.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like 20+ knots of WSW shear affecting 99L....at the coordinates of 18N and 83W...

lets hope it continues
Quoting ackee:
it will be intresting to see what NHC say at 8am


If this is not at least TD then I have not learned anything after watching this blog for such a long time - LOL.
Quoting shikori:


Not to mention JGHS if rains are torrential for an hour water almost overtakes all the corridors.
CHHS too.
Good morning,
Dry air digging in deeper from the NW and getting closer from the SE as well. Wind shear 20 to 30 kts to the north and west and most convection to the NE of the low. Do not see RI anytime soon?
1128. ackee
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


If this is not at least TD then I have not learned anything after watching this blog for such a long time - LOL.
I am think the NHC will wait until recon go out theirs they will however up the number to 80 or higher
Quoting islander101010:
lets hope it continues


>
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 101019180000
2010101918
17.4 276.6
20.7 276.0
100
17.4 276.6
200000
1010200000
1
WTNT21 KNGU 200000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5N 83.5W TO 20.8N 84.0W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OF A LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 9 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 90 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 210000Z.//



This alert appears to be from yesterday afternoon; are there any newer ones?
ABNT20 KNHC 201136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN IS DRIFTING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
Quoting clwstmchasr:



>



Upper level winds are strong but according to the NHC they are expected to relax and give 99L a chance to develop. Also, moving east just like the GFDL forecasted.
1133. scott39
99L will meander possibly until Friday. TD is not likely at 8am.
1134. shikori
I think the sheer might be decreasing a little.
1135. scott39
Wind shear is a short term problem for 99L.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


From post #1119

2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OF A LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 9 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 90 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
look like conditions are expected to become more favorable shortly
Good Morning, as far as I'm concerned, the NHC is postponing the inevitable on this one, I've seen sheared systems upgraded before, first it was lack of convection, now shear, IMO watches and warnings need to be issued, but that is my opinion only!
Quoting shikori:
I think the sheer might be decreasing a little.
Link
1139. shikori
The thing says winds are 35MPH and pressure is 1008 Mb at the 8:00am advisory ,but yet its no depression? This is a repeat of nicole and paula I am gonna end up leaving school early.
1140. scott39
NHC says 99L is drifting Eastward. COC is moving farther E for now.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning, as far as I'm concerned, the NHC is postponing the inevitable on this one, I've seen sheared systems upgraded before, first it was lack of convection, now shear, IMO watches and warnings need to be issued, but that is my opinion only!
Are you getting a lot of rain down there ? BTW, good morning.
1142. shikori
give me a link to what u r showing stormwatcher
Quoting shikori:
give me a link to what u r showing stormwatcher
I posted the link for the shear tendencies. It shows decreasing shear to the NW of the system.
I got called a troll yesterday by saying this was going to happen. Well what i can i say I shouldn't listen to people who have no clue on forecasting. People don't seem to get the fact the FL is in a perfect setup to get hit by a cat 1 hurricane and maybe even a strong cat 2 by next Tuesday or Wednesday. I think landfall could be near Sarasota based on steering at that time.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest99l.2010102006/invest99l.2010102006_anim.html
1145. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning, as far as I'm concerned, the NHC is postponing the inevitable on this one, I've seen sheared systems upgraded before, first it was lack of convection, now shear, IMO watches and warnings need to be issued, but that is my opinion only!
I think NHC waiting for more info when Recon go out there we have better IDEA still think we see a TD#19 later today


A tiny bit of convection beginning to fire over the coc now and even less to the west.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Are you getting a lot of rain down there ? BTW, good morning.

Just a drizzle now, but i think its going to be one nasty day!
IKE GOM door has opened up early next week. How can you downcast now? Models are clearly painting a ugly scenario for the west coast of FL.
Quoting ackee:
I think NHC waiting for more info when Recon go out there we have better IDEA still think we see a TD#19 later today
I agree.
Quoting ackee:
I am think the NHC will wait until recon go out theirs they will however up the number to 80 or higher


Do you know when recon will go in? Seems to me that ppl will not really take this seriously until TD is declared but then NHC knows best...maybe it will just go away...I pray for that anyway.
1151. IKE
Key West...

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MID LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING A MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
LEADING TO INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS. THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH PWATS HOVERING AROUND 1.2 INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEATHER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF APRIL SEEMS LIKELY FOR
THE KEYS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN BRISK EASTERLY FLOW. WOULD EXPECT
JUST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SUCH A PATTERN...AND WILL MAINTAIN DIME POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

C and S FL really need to watch this one as past 5 days Richard could speed up it's forward motion as the trough digs in. We could be looking at this thing moving NE at 20 mph.
1153. IKE
Quoting FLstormwarning:
IKE GOM door has opened up early next week. How can you downcast now? Models are clearly painting a ugly scenario for the west coast of FL.


See post 1151. This isn't coming near Florida. Not in the next 5-7 days.
1154. WxLogic
If 99L is able to survive the bit of shear is currently and will be on for the next 2 to 3 days then it could have a chance as a High pressure builds across the E CONUS and W ATL region forcing it to stall and acquire a W displacement.

Current NAO still call for a little dip before attempting to establish a bit more TROF(s) across E CONUS:



HWRF is starting to lean some towards GDFL as not slamming it directly into Honduras/Nicaragua region like before. If 99L stalls in the region is currently on at this time it might unfortunately have a chance.
Quoting FLstormwarning:
IKE GOM door has opened up early next week. How can you downcast now? Models are clearly painting a ugly scenario for the west coast of FL.
what you posted closest to florida i see is just north of cuba
99L is not as small of a system as it might appear, in fact the circulation though not strong covers quite a large area, JMO
Quoting IKE:


See post 1151. This isn't coming near Florida. Not in the next 5-7 days.


What? Man you are lost! So I guess the HWRF and GFDL are wrong right?

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest99l.2010102006_nest3.png


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest99l.2010102006_wind.png
Quoting shikori:
JGHS


As a person who is involved with the Ed system in the Cayman's, it pleases me no end to find students getting involved in learning from blogs like this. Looking forward to reading your comments!!
1159. IKE
Quoting FLstormwarning:
I got called a troll yesterday by saying this was going to happen. Well what i can i say I shouldn't listen to people who have no clue on forecasting. People don't seem to get the fact the FL is in a perfect setup to get hit by a cat 1 hurricane and maybe even a strong cat 2 by next Tuesday or Wednesday. I think landfall could be near Sarasota based on steering at that time.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest99l.2010102006/invest99l.2010102006_anim.html
I pray this does not occur as it would be very bad for Cayman.
Recon on the runway should be on their way shortly.


Experimental FIMZ




Loop
Quoting islander101010:
what you posted closest to florida i see is just north of cuba


With this trough in place you tell me where this will head. I can tell this one way and that's NE my friend

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_174.shtml
1163. scott39
The convection of 99L is displaced from the COC. This is the only factor keeping it from becoming a TD. This will change.
morning all, like i have been saying the GFDL has this 99L nailed, going out this morning to buy another generator.
The Tampa Shield maybe running out. This could very well hit Tampa head on.
A mid level ridge over FL not exactly the most likely scenario for a storm hitting there.
Quoting IKE:


See post 1151. This isn't coming near Florida. Not in the next 5-7 days.

I agree. A mid level ridge over FL not exactly the most likely scenario for a storm hitting there. GFDL & HWRF might pick up on this later today I think.
hey guys I was just looking at the shortwave loop and I can see that the COC is completely naked 99L location at 18.5N 82.5W moving westbound
Quoting FLstormwarning:


What? Man you are lost! So I guess the HWRF and GFDL are wrong right?

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest99l.2010102006_nest3.png


http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest99l.2010102006_wind.png

What's the GFS saying these days?
HWRF and GFDL are similar in track. NOT GOOD! These 2 models nailed Wilma 5 years ago how ironic.
Mornin' Ike.
1171. IKE
Tampa,FL forecast...

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Northeast wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East northeast wind around 6 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. East wind around 6 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
1172. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin' Ike.


Morning.
Quoting IKE:
Tampa,FL forecast...

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Northeast wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East northeast wind around 6 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 67. East wind around 6 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.


It will most likely change as the GFS and Euro are the only models not developing this thing.
GFS & Euro didn't develope Wilma only the GFDL and HWRF.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I was just looking at the shortwave loop and I can see that the COC is completely naked 99L location at 18.5N 82.5W moving westbound
???????Where u get west from ?
Vorticity looking pretty good, and shear expected to ease a bit allowing more conducive conditions aloft.

850mb Vort



06Z GFS (250mb plot) up to 48 hours out

Quoting FLstormwarning:
HWRF and GFDL are similar in track. NOT GOOD! These 2 models nailed Wilma 5 years ago how ironic.



Get a grip. Way to early to start sending out warnings. You don't know "Dick".
06z Early Cycle NHC Dynamic Model Tracks

i think he ment east
1180. scott39
Developing Caribbean TCs are complex and difficult to forecast.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I pray this does not occur as it would be very bad for Cayman.
Morning everyone.Looks like more slow development on 99L in store.I hope that HWRF model run doesn't eventuate Stormwatcher... (needless to say)
Quoting FLstormwarning:
HWRF and GFDL are similar in track. NOT GOOD! These 2 models nailed Wilma 5 years ago how ironic.


that's actually not an example of irony at all.
1183. IKE
From Miami discussion....

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AND BRING IN DRY AIR IN ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE CWA. SO WILL REMOVE THE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO SWING FROM A EASTERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...AND BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE INTRODUCING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting FLstormwarning:
GFS & Euro didn't develope Wilma only the GFDL and HWRF.

GFS has been relatively great with cyclogenesis this year and I'm less inclined to jump aboard with a model that explodes this to a major cane. Not too mention a mid level ridge is expected to build over FL which should provide some steering to a meandering system.
1186. ackee
check out the 06oz HWRF AND the GFDL both devlop 99L very close to west of jamaica then move almost right over caymans as cane the track by both models seem identical to how 99L is moving Eastward now I do buy into both idea shorterm both of models tacks not sure about there intensity thow
1187. IKE
1185...reported.

Back away from the computer. Go mow the yard...or go for a walk. It will relieve stress.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

GFS has been relatively great with cyclogenesis this year and I'm less inclined to jump aboard with a model that explodes this to a major cane. Not too mention a mid level ridge is expected to build over FL which should provide some steering to a meandering system.


with a trough moving in? I would question that forecast. Richard will have to go NE once passing the Tip of cuba and this could hit as far north as Cedar Key.
Quoting IKE:
1185...reported.

Back away from the computer. Go mow the yard...or go for a walk. It will relieve stress.


Then you should also report 1177 let me guess the buddy system so what he says is fine.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
???????Where u get west from ?


Good morning

Good question, no West there at all. The drift to the East and the shear we were talking about
last night have both been confirmed by the NHC update.

99L is on the verge of being classified as a TD. The system looks better today to me than ever before notwithstanding that shear has displaced the convection to the East of the center. The shear tendency map shows that 99L has drifted into an area of relatively low shear and we will likely see the convection begin to close in over the center during the course of the morning.

Here is the real concern for the NW Caribbean that I have been posting about for the past couple of days. Very weak steering.

99L is not going anywhere any time soon and the danger of it sitting and organizing on our door step is quite high. A tense couple of days ahead I think.

1191. shawn26
GFDL and HWRF look really ugly. I hope that does not pan out.
Quoting superpete:
Morning everyone.Looks like more slow development on 99L in store.I hope that HWRF model run doesn't eventuate Stormwatcher... (needless to say)
I hope not.
ATCF says another one millibar pressure drop; winds still at 30 knots. 17.7N/82.5W

AL, 99, 2010102012, , BEST, 0, 177N, 825W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 190, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Morning IKE and PCDoug. Cranked out morning PT this AM an hour before dawn, before I had to do the morning reports. I'm so glad to have some of the moisture back. So are my lungs. Thought I'd pop in here before work to see if you all survived the weekend out there. I see the blog is still having it's rocky moments.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Then you should also report 1177 let me guess the buddy system so what he says is fine.
It's not the buddy system. He used Dick which is a nickname for Richard. NOT the way you used it.
1196. scott39
Could 99L be picked up by a trough, if it tracks into the Yucatan channel?
Quoting FLstormwarning:
The Tampa Shield maybe running out. This could very well hit Tampa head on.
no nature is saving that for 2012
wow none of those models look good for me HWRF & GFDL the two models that plan to kill us here in Grand Cayman via Richard
2008 nobody except me expected the disturbance to the south to develop and look what it did Paloma missed grand cayman by 40 miles and ran smack dab into Cayman brac and little Cayman devastating the island, so to all the nay sayers out there about way too early to call any development "go fly a kite" this is my niegborhood and all my islanders know what i am saying the carribean especially in these part of the woods unexpected things happen with weather. GFDL very reliable at this time of year for some reason , in the early part of the season i dont trust it only maybe GFS & HWRF,.
To my fellow cayman bloggers we are gonna get somthing out of this not sure ... maybe more rain and tropical force winds , Cayman brac mmmmmm possible cat 1 .(TIMOHO)
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Good question, no West there at all. The drift to the East and the shear we were talking about
last night have both been confirmed by the NHC update.

99L is on the verge of being classified as a TD. The system looks better today to me than ever before notwithstanding that shear has displaced the convection to the East of the center. The shear tendency map shows that 99L has drifted into an area of relatively low shear and we will likely see the convection begin to close in over the center during the course of the morning.

Here is the real concern for the NW Caribbean that I have been posting about for the past couple of days. Very weak steering.

99L is not going anywhere any time soon and the danger of it sitting and organizing on our door step is quite high. A tense couple of days ahead I think.

I really appreciate your input since I don't know the first thing about it but I do agree we really need to keep a very close eye on it.
1201. pottery
Good Morning..
99L looks a lot better than it did last night.
Would be surprised if it moves much today, but it could sit there and get better organized by tonight.
Interesting one....

Raining here. A damp, blustery, grey morning. Nice!
If anyone should get reported it's P'Doug. Funny JB and most forecasted aree saying the samething the FL could get nailed and people on here for whatever reason can't seem to think that once Richard passes the Tip of Cuba that it would get pulled NE by the trough moving in so I propose a question IF it passes the Tip of Cuba and gets into the Gulf as the models are saying then where do you think it will go? Well climo even says NE from that point. with a trough that deep moving SE then this would get scooped up to the NE.
Looks like recon has just left. Should have some better info a little later this morning.
1204. 7544
hwrf agrees with the gfdl now and takes it est of the yucatan look at the end of the run looks like it tries to turn ne at that time sorta like wilma did so we have to wait for the new run latter today could that happen as the high moves east and the trof kicks in to push it ne ? also the clip model has been showing that track for days now and now it shows closer to so fla . tia
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It's not the buddy system. He used Dick which is a nickname for Richard. NOT the way you used it.


He used Dick to say I don't know Dick and that was not cool. I said the samething JB said and he has the gall to tell me I know nothing. WELL!
Quoting 7544:
hwrf agrees with the gfdl now and takes it est of the yucatan look at the end of the run looks like it tries to turn ne at that time sorta like wilma did so we have to wait for the new run latter today could that happen as the high moves east and the trof kicks in to push it ne ? also the clip model has been showing that track for days now and now it shows closer to so fla . tia


The models will get a grip soon.


Quoting 7544:
hwrf agrees with the gfdl now and takes it est of the yucatan look at the end of the run looks like it tries to turn ne at that time sorta like wilma did so we have to wait for the new run latter today could that happen as the high moves east and the trof kicks in to push it ne ? also the clip model has been showing that track for days now and now it shows closer to so fla . tia


No question this moves NE and when it happens a lot of people on here will be ashamed for bashing me because of the pattern I see. Once in the Gulf it have to go NE no other motion is supportive to the wx pattern early next week and FL better beware.
Quoting FLstormwarning:
If anyone should get reported it's P'Doug. Funny JB and most forecasted aree saying the samething the FL could get nailed and people on here for whatever reason can't seem to think that once Richard passes the Tip of Cuba that it would get pulled NE by the trough moving in so I propose a question IF it passes the Tip of Cuba and gets into the Gulf as the models are saying then where do you think it will go? Well climo even says NE from that point. with a trough that deep moving SE then this would get scooped up to the NE.



Mid-October storms in the NW Caribbean should have all Floridians on guard. It's nearly a no-brainer.
1211. scott39
Quoting FLstormwarning:


No question this moves NE and when it happens a lot of people on here will be ashamed for bashing me because of the pattern I see. Once in the Gulf it have to go NE no other motion is supportive to the wx pattern early next week and FL better beware.
Wont it be ripped to shreads by the wind shear in the GOM?
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning..
99L looks a lot better than it did last night.
Would be surprised if it moves much today, but it could sit there and get better organized by tonight.
Interesting one....

Raining here. A damp, blustery, grey morning. Nice!


Good morning to you as well

Very interesting day on tap today. 99L now much closer to us and continuing to drift this way. I expect we will see this classified as a TD very soon nothwithstanding the sheared appearance.

expect 99l to move more westward at the end of 48hr period imo
Recon

12:23:30Z 27.500N 88.833W 392.5 mb
(~ 11.59 inHg) 7,633 meters
(~ 25,043 feet)

Flight level winds are screaming up there. 64+mph.
1216. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning to you as well

Very interesting day on tap today. 99L now much closer to us and continuing to drift this way. I expect we will see this classified as a TD very soon nothwithstanding the sheared appearance.


True.
And the image at post 1212 sums it up pretty well.
Looks to me like it will eventually end up over central/eastern Cuba.
You should be getting some heavy rains....
1217. 7544

agree with fla has to keep two eyes open looks like at this hour and the plane might find a ts and not a td . and could take a wilma path imo . but is really looking like ts richard at this hour . any one agree ?
Looking forward to Bob and Levi's forecast video posts.
Quoting 7544:

agree with fla has to keep two eyes open looks like at this hour and the plane might find a ts and not a td . and could take a wilma path imo . but is really looking like ts richard at this hour . any one agree ?

I think we'll see a TD by 11am EDT.
*peeks head in doorway, sees arguing, and leaves*

-Credit to IKE-
I will be back once data from the HH starts coming in
Quoting 7544:

agree with fla has to keep two eyes open looks like at this hour and the plane might find a ts and not a td . and could take a wilma path imo . but is really looking like ts richard at this hour . any one agree ?


Recon was finding TS winds yesterday. If the core has indeed tightened up I would expect to see a jump straight to Richard. Pressure is down to 1007 from yesterdays 1009 so, one would assume winds have gone up. Convection has been sustained, albeit sheared. Shear shouldn't keep them from classifying, Nicole proved that.
Quoting scott39:
Wont it be ripped to shreads by the wind shear in the GOM?

Yes, exactly. Also have to intialize the freaking models. That dude doesnt even notice that the Low is farther west than its actually location on the GFDL. Another reason why it is out to lunch.
Quoting scott39:
Wont it be ripped to shreads by the wind shear in the GOM?


Not really because it will be moving with the shear which is high now but will less once Richard reaches the gulf. The trough axis will be in mid south at that point so shear wont be too bad then. FL really has to watch this because the GFDL seems to be nailing the track right now whether some on here like it or not.
1226. ackee
when will 99L be upgraged TO TD or TS

A 5PM
B 11PM
C NEXT 24 HOURS
D NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS
E remain an Invest
1227. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
I will be back once data from the HH starts coming in

OK.
But in the meantime, the forecasts for Grand Cayman dont look too bad for today and beyond.
I believe this system will get designated later today as Shear begins to let up.

I then believe once strengthening a bit, it will undergo Rapid Intensification, becoming the season's 10th hurricane.

Not even forecasting for anything after that.
Also if any of you look at the 72 hour forecast on NHC they still have it as a low 72 hours from now and not a TS.
1230. afj3
Morning all!
Novice needs advice. Why do the models show 99L heading to Central America while the satellite has it racing eastward? Please help this novice out. Thanks!
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Also if any of you look at the 72 hour forecast on NHC they still have it as a low 72 hours from now and not a TS.


Yeah and you can take that to the bank and watch that check bounce.
1232. 7544
gfdl 140 k wow CAT 5 ?

Link
1233. afj3
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Also if any of you look at the 72 hour forecast on NHC they still have it as a low 72 hours from now and not a TS.

Gotta link??? Thanks!
1234. IKE
POLL TIME!

Q: When will 99L be designated a Tropical Depression?

A. This morning (11AM)
B. This afternoon (2PM, 5PM)
C. Tonight (8PM, 11PM, 2AM)
D. Tomorrow Morning (5AM, 8AM, 11AM)
E. OTHER/LATER

Q: When will Invest 99L become a Tropical Storm?

A. This morning (11AM)
B. This afternoon (2PM, 5PM)
C. Tonight (8PM, 11PM, 2AM)
D. Tomorrow Morning (5AM, 8AM, 11AM)
E. OTHER/LATER

*I highlighted my answers in bold*
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Not really because it will be moving with the shear which is high now but will less once Richard reaches the gulf. The trough axis will be in mid south at that point so shear wont be too bad then. FL really has to watch this because the GFDL seems to be nailing the track right now whether some on here like it or not.

I thought the was the same trough that was going to dip far enough down into the GOM to turn him NE though...?
1237. pottery
Quoting afj3:
Morning all!
Novice needs advice. Why do the models show 99L heading to Central America while the satellite has it racing eastward? Please help this novice out. Thanks!

The satellite images show the TOP of the system being blown to the east, by wind-shear.
The main body of the storm is pretty stationary right now.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Also if any of you look at the 72 hour forecast on NHC they still have it as a low 72 hours from now and not a TS.


They actually won't change that until it's actually classified as a tropical system. However, they indicate the possibility.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POLL TIME!

Q: When will 99L be designated a Tropical Depression?

A. This morning (11AM)
B. This afternoon (2PM, 5PM)
C. Tonight (8PM, 11PM, 2AM)
D. Tomorrow Morning (5AM, 8AM, 11AM)
E. OTHER/LATER

Q: When will Invest 99L become a Tropical Storm?

A. This morning (11AM)
B. This afternoon (2PM, 5PM)
C. Tonight (8PM, 11PM, 2AM)
D. Tomorrow Morning (5AM, 8AM, 11AM)
E. OTHER/LATER

*I highlighted my answers in bold*

A, then D
i dont think recon is going to find a closed off low it needs to break off the mid level trough and become more circular in structure
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I thought the was the same trough that was going to dip far enough down into the GOM to turn him NE though...?

Exactly again increase shear but he doesnt seem to understand that.
1242. afj3
Quoting pottery:

The satellite images show the TOP of the system being blown to the east, by wind-shear.
The main body of the storm is pretty stationary right now.

Cool. Thanks! I wish I had some links to educate me so I can comment intelligently in here...
Quoting islander101010:
i dont think recon is going to find a closed off low it needs to break off the mid level trough and become more circular in structure


They found one yesterday, and its strengthened since yesterday, so I would assume that there is a closed low still....That has strengthened.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Exactly again increase shear but he doesnt seem to understand that.

Much increased shear. The GOM is a death trap for anything.
Oh, where for art thou LEVI?
L -- Long-sufferingly
E -- Expecting
V -- Vortex
I -- Information
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I thought the was the same trough that was going to dip far enough down into the GOM to turn him NE though...?


Yes but as a result of the trough moving east at a good rate most of the gulf will have NE steering winds. I know it's hard to believe a hurricane hitting FL this late in the year but it can happen and they can at times be majors.
Good llc with 99L. Need to wait 24hrs for the shear to relax allowing the thunderstorms to fire up over the center - then I believe a TD will form.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Much increased shear. The GOM is a death trap for anything.


A storm moving with the shear will not be affected as much as a storm butting into the shear. Yes it will weaken slightly but that maybe it. I would say this could be a cat 1 or 2 at landfall anywhere from Cedar Key to fort Myers.
Now that was downright unfriendly!
Report mine if you like. It's a play on the name "Richard". And JB hasn't said Florida is safe. Neither have I. It's just not as nearly imminent as your immature self would obviously like it to be. Grow up and develope a little thicker layer of skin. It'll serve well here and everywhere else in the long run.
Quoting 7544:
hwrf agrees with the gfdl now and takes it est of the yucatan look at the end of the run looks like it tries to turn ne at that time sorta like wilma did so we have to wait for the new run latter today could that happen as the high moves east and the trof kicks in to push it ne ? also the clip model has been showing that track for days now and now it shows closer to so fla . tia


OK - 3 tv stations in the Miami area this morning say NOTHING about this affecting Florida - according to all of them this is going to CA - They are all blowing it off as if its nothing for us to be concerned with. Am I missing something?
1252. pottery
Quoting afj3:

Cool. Thanks! I wish I had some links to educate me so I can comment intelligently in here...

Go to the main WU page, and spend some time looking through the links there.
Some are easily understood.
Also, check Poster LEVI's update in a while, right here.
1254. ackee
99L SURE Looks better than nicole did when the NHC had upgraded it
Quoting kitkat954:


OK - 3 tv stations in the Miami area this morning say NOTHING about this affecting Florida - according to all of them this is going to CA - They are all blowing it off as if its nothing for us to be concerned with. Am I missing something?

No. It's probably because the local Mets there are talking about the nice mid-level ridge that's expected to build over FL.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


He used Dick to say I don't know Dick and that was not cool. I said the samething JB said and he has the gall to tell me I know nothing. WELL!

Storm is that you?
Megi
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

A Cat 5... WTF



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Wow. One of the predicted models is a WTF bomb.
Model spread is everywhere. Where are the FL casters now? LOL
Invest 99L now:



Nicole as a Tropical Depression:



Nicole lacked the structure that 99L has, and 99L is lacking the convection Nicole had.
Rough in here today!
1263. 7544
looks like the may have to relocate the coc under the heavy conv. thats now forming and blowing up on the west side? so i would look for the plane to be doing that latter today its looking good now .
Quoting kitkat954:


OK - 3 tv stations in the Miami area this morning say NOTHING about this affecting Florida - according to all of them this is going to CA - They are all blowing it off as if its nothing for us to be concerned with. Am I missing something?


Because it's all speculation at this point and it's not even classified as a tropical entity yet.


typhoonfury:
Raw footage I shot in HD of typhoon #Juan #Megi slamming Philippines as well as aftermath shots - http://youtu.be/R9tckfJrTnI
about 2 hours ago from TweetDeck


typhoonfury:
Back home safely in Hong Kong. In need of a massive meal & lot of rest. Chill out day tmrw before probably venturing into China for #Megi
about 3 hours ago from TweetDeck
Link
Crown Weather TWD for this morning. Very interesting synopsis.
1267. scott39
If a ridge builds over FL. wouldnt this put the Gulf Coast at risk?
I have to say 99L is definitely taking the shape of a Tropical Depression. Still, I don't expect an upgrade until this afternoon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 99L now:



Nicole as a Tropical Depression:



Nicole lacked the structure that 99L has, and 99L is lacking the convection Nicole had.

Good analogy. I'd say that's about right.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Because it's all speculation at this point and it's not even classified as a tropical entity yet.



I look at this and wonder why anyone says its coming to FL. It could back to the pacific for all we know!
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Sorry I was out of line and lashed out. I am sorry for being an ASS and calling names. I really thought you were attacking me and I deeply apologize for my actions. I am sorry for being a "Dick".



No doubt I was needleing you a little. No harm done. Apology accepted.
Quoting scott39:
If a ridge builds over FL. wouldnt this put the Gulf Coast at risk?


There is deep trough moving east so I would say anything in the gulf hit FL as they all do this late in the year when a storm gets in the gulf.
Quoting scott39:
If a ridge builds over FL. wouldnt this put the Gulf Coast at risk?

For some showers & maybe a clap of thunder.
Quoting pioggiasuper:


I look at this and wonder why anyone says its coming to FL. It could back to the pacific for all we know!

Yep exactly
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Because it's all speculation at this point and it's not even classified as a tropical entity yet.



Thanks - I guess they pick and choose which models to show us because these are not the ones I saw this morning.
richard richard richard!!!!!!
1277. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:

For some showers & maybe a clap of thunder.
what about some lightning?
1278. BanTech
Quoting niederwaldboy:
richard richard richard!!!!!!


What?
Quoting scott39:
what about some lightning?

Ahhh what the heck. We'll throw that in too.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Wow. One of the predicted models is a WTF bomb.


Actually... 1 has a Cat 5, four more of them have a Cat 4
1281. whadat
1282. scott39
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually... 1 has a Cat 5, four more of them have a Cat 4
:O :O :O :O !!!!
1283. 7544
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually... 1 has a Cat 5, four more of them have a Cat 4


gfdl 139k

Link
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
???????Where u get west from ?


His Pants
1286. scott39
DOOM!!!!
250mb plot 06Z GFS up to 36 hours
Quoting pioggiasuper:


I look at this and wonder why anyone says its coming to FL. It could back to the pacific for all we know!


My guess is that it's because that is the prevailing track for cyclones in it's current location. Your talking a 5+ day forecast which is HIGHLY speculative, IMO. Anyone who definitively says it's going here is out to lunch, IMO.

Quoting ackee:
99L SURE Looks better than nicole did when the NHC had upgraded it



Wrong... 99L is a very badly exposed LLC to the SW of the convection
20/1145 UTC 17.8N 82.4W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic
1291. scott39
Quoting scottsvb:



Wrong... 99L is a very badly exposed LLC to the SW of the convection
What do you think in the short and long term for 99L?
Quoting pioggiasuper:
Model spread is everywhere. Where are the FL casters now? LOL


Why do you insist on making comments like that?
Quoting scottsvb:



Wrong... 99L is a very badly exposed LLC to the SW of the convection



Badly sheared system but the circulation at the lower levels is as defined as it's ever been. Shear is forecast to relax a little today tho isn't it?
1294. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

typhoonfury:
Raw footage I shot in HD of typhoon #Juan #Megi slamming Philippines as well as aftermath shots - http://youtu.be/R9tckfJrTnI
about 2 hours ago from TweetDeck


typhoonfury:
Back home safely in Hong Kong. In need of a massive meal & lot of rest. Chill out day tmrw before probably venturing into China for #Megi
about 3 hours ago from TweetDeck

Thanks for that, CRS.
1295. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
20/1145 UTC 17.8N 82.4W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic


Easy to see now with visible on it. It's exposed.
1296. 7544
when then does this nnw turn come in ?
Quoting scottsvb:



Wrong... 99L is a very badly exposed LLC to the SW of the convection

99L does currently have an exposed LLC...but the OP stated that it looks better than Nicole did as a depression, and no one can honestly deny that.
Quoting IKE:


Easy to see now with visible on it. It's exposed.

...and pretty badly. Conditions aloft handled it alright.
1299. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Easy to see now with visible on it. It's exposed.
Will that change?
Quoting IKE:


Easy to see now with visible on it. It's exposed.


No argument here.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Badly sheared system but the circulation at the lower levels is as defined as it's ever been. Shear is forecast to relax a little today tho isn't it?

Shear is expected to ease some, yes
Quoting scott39:
Will that change?

Unless something occurs that is completely against the laws of physics, fluid dynamics, climatology, and meterology, yes, it will change.
1303. 7544
they will relocate the center latter on today maybe further east imo watch
1304. IKE
Water vapor....

Visible reveals a rather weak circulation a good deal away from the convection.




At 13:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 334 miles (538 km) to the WSW (255°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Quoting 7544:
they will relocate the center latter on today maybe further east imo watch

I think instead as the shear begins to relax the convection should re-align back over the LLC.
1308. pottery
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No argument here.

Shucks!!
I was looking for some action...
Well, I have things to do, and if you guys are going to keep agreeing with each other, I may as well leave.....

heheheheh
1310. scott39
Didnt the NHC say earlier that wind shear for 99l will become favorable soon?
Quoting scott39:
DOOM!!!!


LOL hadn't see this since August I think

WE ARE ALL DOOM!!! LOL
Quoting scott39:
Didnt the NHC say earlier that wind shear for 99l will become favorable soon?


Yes. tomorrow
LLC has been well defined for the past 24hrs..

I dont think it looks better than Nicole. Not until T-Storms fire closer to the center.. infact 99L looked better 12hrs ago than right now.

Still this system has 2 possibilities. 1, the shear lessons over the next 12-24hrs and T-Storms fire over the center.. if this happens.. This will be upgraded to probably a Tropical Storm by Thurs. If it takes until Sat-Sun.. the LLC will move with the LLFlow SSW into Honduras and Belize by Sunday. If it gets its act together though again in the next day or so.. a stronger system will keep it stationary and then move it more W and WNW with the midlevel flow around a strong ridge over Florida and the Bahamas. Next 24-36hrs may determine this track thru the weekend.
Quoting pottery:

Shucks!!
I was looking for some action...
Well, I have things to do, and if you guys are going to keep agreeing with each other, I may as well leave.....

heheheheh


31 years today Pottery... I am starting to get old like you.
Quoting pottery:

Shucks!!
I was looking for some action...
Well, I have things to do, and if you guys are going to keep agreeing with each other, I may as well leave.....

heheheheh

It won't last Pottery. lol
1316. IKE
Water vapor in a loop...boxing itself in a corner?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I think instead as the shear begins to relax the convection should re-align back over the LLC.


06Z GFDL is not forecasting any significant development until 24-48 hrs. Analysis is pretty good and I think it's handling the current tracking well.

1318. scott39
A naked LLC does not make a dead 99L! Dangit Jim Give it time! LOL
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


06Z GFDL is not forecasting any significant development until 24-48 hrs. Analysis is pretty good and I think it's handling the current tracking well.


We'll see by then. It sure has time and conditions aloft on it's side to develop into something.
1321. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Water vapor in a loop...boxing itself in a corner?
Move like a butterfly sting like a bee!
Quoting aprinz1979:


LOL hadn't see this since August I think

WE ARE ALL DOOM!!! LOL
Here in Houston we have been DOMED since the early '60's LOL
1323. hcubed
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Mid-October storms in the NW Caribbean should have all Floridians on guard. It's nearly a no-brainer.


Can we use the words "FLstormwarning" and "no-brainer" in the same posting?
Latest RGB loop shows a southward motion could be underway.
ok...I was watching the weather channel tropical update last night at 9:50 PM EST he stated that there's no chance of 99L coming near CONUS SFL...any responses...from you guys...they seemed pretty confident that this storm will not affect SFL...period the end...