WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

99L a threat to Carolinas; Felix dies; Henriette does a double landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on September 05, 2007

Hurricane Felix is no more. The high mountains of Honduras have dissipated the storm, just 24 hours after Felix smashed ashore near the Nicaragua/Honduras border with 160 mph winds and an 18-foot storm surge. Puerto Cabezas, a Nicaraguan Caribbean coast town of 40,000 people, took the worst of Felix's wrath. The town sits just 10 miles south of where the eye hit, and preliminary reports indicate much of the town was heavily damaged, and three people were killed. The big fear from Felix continues to be the heavy rains it is spawning over the mountainous regions of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. So far, satellite estimates of rainfall show amount up to 125 mm (5 inches) have fallen, with up to another 5 inches expected by 8pm tonight (Figure 1). It is unlikely that rains of this magnitude can trigger the type of catastrophes suffered by the region during Hurricane Mitch and Hurricane Fifi. I am hopeful that Felix's major destruction will be confined to the small region near landfall in northeastern Nicaragua.


Figure 1. Forecast rain amounts for the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT Wednesday September 5 (00 GMT September 6). Maximum rain amounts of about 125 mm ( 5 inches) are predicted over the region where Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador meet, and also near the Belize/Guatemala border.

Carolinas at risk from tropical disturbance 99L
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary appears to have developed into a subtropical depression, and may grow into a tropical storm over the next day or two. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 15 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops of 99L show the classic appearance of a weak, sheared system--a nearly exposed low level circulation system, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed to one side by strong upper-level winds. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next two days, which should allow some slow development. A QuikSCAT pass from 6:52am EDT showed that 99L has a vigorous closed circulation with top winds of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph), so in my book this system is already a subtropical depression. The reason I call it subtropical is because there is still clear evidence of a frontal boundary attached to 99L, evident as long band of clouds extending from the south side of the storm (Figure 2). The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 2pm EDT, and NHC may wait until then to see if 99L can maintain its strength before naming it a subtropical depression.

The computer models are all unanimous in developing 99L into a tropical storm. The preferred tracks are into North Carolina or South Carolina by Sunday or Monday. The HWRF, SHIPS, and GFDL intensity models are calling for a weak tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and Category 2 hurricane, respectively, when 99L makes landfall Monday in the Carolinas. Residents of the east coast of the U.S., and the Carolinas in particular, should carefully watch the development of 99L.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of 99L showing the nearly exposed circulation center, and a front attached to the storm's south side. Image credit: NOAA.

African development?
The models unanimously forecast a tropical depression will develop near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa 2-4 days from now. The models showed a similar degree of unanimity for the development of Hurricane Dean in a similar situation, so the chances of another named storm off the coast of Africa early next week are considerable.

Henriette hits Baja, heads for mainland Mexico
Hurricane Henriette hit the southern tip of Mexico's Baja as a Category 1 hurricane yesterday, and is on its way to a second landfall in mainland Mexico later today. This would make Henriette Mexico's second double landfalling hurricane this season--Hurricane Dean made a double landfall along the Atlantic side of Mexico, hitting the Yucatan Peninsula and mainland Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. Guasave radar and satellite loops show that Henriette is not very well-organized, but the hurricane should be able to maintain its strength over the warm waters of the Sea of Cortez and come ashore as a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. Henriette killed one person due to high surf in Cabo San Lucas yesterday, and six people in landslides in Acapulco Saturday. The remains of Henriette could bring heavy rains to Arizona, New Mexico, and western Texas late this week.


Figure 3. Winds of Hurricane Henriette as measured by QuikSCAT at 8:57am EDT 9/4/07. Image credit: NASA/Brigham Young University.

I'll have an update later today in all probability, after the Hurricane Hunters investigate 99L.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Models only take initial conditions and model out from there. They do not know what errors they have committed. The only tweaking is done after analysis by the people programming the model. (At least from the best of my knowledge)
Grace dont forget to tie yourself down like in twister. This is the gwarming age. Be safe good night all.
mississippiwx23, I agree with you there! Lots of time to fester & we definatly don't need anything in the Gulf! I'm using 99L as a learning process. And again, thank you!!!!!!
cane - it takes the two of us less than 25 minutes to shutter up all 3 floors! Most of that is carrying the aluminum corrugated panels up to the 2 floor door (eastfacing - gotta get it right!)
99L is still being sheared, and the 33% chance for development mentioned earlier still holds. It's looking more likely that it will not affect the mainland. If the circulation center survives the night, and the shear relaxes the chances for development go up. But it appears now that even through most of tomorrow, that won't be the case.
Stormy, I live in military housing on the water. ALL I am required to do is pack up my animals, move my electronics to higher ground and run and pray the Chesapeake stays where it belongs and all will be well. I suspect if this thing does develop and run into NC that high will prevent it from curving back out to sea but doing something similar to Isabel and going in at an angle. Either way. NOT a nice thing to deal with.
No problem, glad I can help.
Oh well it's late and kids are up early. Will check back in on 99L tomorrow! Been a blast, glad I joined!!!! G'nite
1509. 7544
well sheer must be fading cause 99l is startng to get its nice round shape to it like last night and more convection forming to the south
I am actually looking ahead with trepidation to the week of the 17th - when I am supposed to be getting replacment windows - the hurricane shutters have to come down, windows replaced & hurricane shutters reinstalled - may end up getting delayed if GFS model is accurate...
New CMC keeps it going into South Carolina...no change.
GN Cane!
ECG,

When I say tweaking, I mean major tweaking to the code after an entire season, or something like that. I dont mean each model run. I guess I didnt state that too clearly.
1515. guygee
So the high is building in north and east of 99L, and all the models show some tropical system heading back generally west...seems to make sense, and how can you argue with the models?

I hope somebody will help me look beyond the black box models here and try to analyze the synoptic setup rationally.

I chose the IR2 view below because it shows the elongated center of 99L best tonight. What I see is that all of the upper-level moisture and the convection is being driven far away from the LLC to the NE. It looks as though the building high has finally slowed 99L's elongated naked LLC around 30N 70W, and should start driving it first SW and then west. But with the upper levels of 99L blowing away to the NE, the LLC can only move back under the very dry and stable air to the west. 99L is no longer a tropical system with a vertical organization, it is now just a naked swirl at the surface. So how can it possibly redevelop under all of that dry and stable air?

We are not talking about Hurricane Jeanne here, to my eye we are looking at a dead invest. So why do all the models agree? Poor initialization? Maybe somebody can walk me through the process wherein 99L regenerates into a tropical cyclone as it heads back generally west, without resorting to the model output? Because, personally, I just cannot see it for myself.


Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
It appears to me that 99 is moving ENE again. My eyes are really out of focus now though, lol Has that movement resumed?
All or Any

The water vapor loop at this time (11.20 mdt) shows a pronounced cyclonic circulation over Mexico between the remnants of Henriette and those of Felix. What the heck IS that.

A trivia question: The same loop shows thunderstorm activity arising from Felix beginning to rekindle in the Eastern Pacific. If this activity should "seed" a tropical storm in the pacific, what would it be called?

Calvin
1519. guygee
Posted By: watchinwxnwpb at 5:19 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"It appears to me that 99 is moving ENE again. My eyes are really out of focus now though, lol Has that movement resumed?"

watchinwxnwpb - We are in the GOES 12 satellite eclipse now, we shouldn't be getting any new images until around 615-645Z. Where are you watching 99L from?
7544 I need to see what you are looking at because it must be a fun house mirror for invests in the Atlantic because if you look at rainbow imagery 99l is a naked swirl just barely holding on for life with no convection near or around it even close. Also there's no low shown on rainbow imagery anymore and there's a front to it's north here's the link Link

guygee, you are right! I forgot about the blackout.
Weaknesses: LBAR does not perform well whenever there is significant vertical wind shear, or when there are multiple, interacting storms.
1524. guygee
Thanks ECG - It is hard to argue with so much agreement in the models, so I am glad you are seeing the same problem. At some point the models are going to have to touch base with reality, IMHO.
said it all day today and tonight and will continue to as long as I see what I do. 99L is dead and won't become a TC or Sub. TC if it should effect the U.S. it won't be anything more then scattered rain/t-storms and/or some unsettled wx but I think it's going to be undeclared an invest then go out to sea as just an open wave.
At this point the system does look very weak. Will have to wait and see what it looks like in the morning. The wind shear is holding on strong, its just hard to believe it will stay like this with a high building in. My guess is the shear drops soon, before 99L is destroyed.
Responding to Guygee: Perhaps Dr. Masters might address the whole question of how a surface circulation can maintain itself UNLESS it is powered by the dynamics of convection. I have always thought of a tropical storm as an organization of thunderstorms. In general, thunderstorms require sheer for their best development. When thunderstorms organize their own sheer (rather than depend on exogenous sheer) we call that event a "hurricane." Thinking this way, I am hard pressed to see how a circulation can be maintained in the absence of thunderstorms.

Hoping that others can help me think this through.

calvin
A circulation can be maintained because of the lack of friction over the ocean. Normally, a low like this can live 2-3 days without convection directly overhead. After that, it normally dies out. We are approaching 2 days now without direct overhead convection.
before I'll say shear will hopefully drop soon I need to see a shear map and base a statement like that on fact rather then only opinion. So 99L held on for 2 days but a low pressure area was shown on the sat before and now it's gone and the LLC was partially exposed before now it's a naked swirl 99L is unevolving meaning going backwards instead of forward and a front's coming down this weekend so the sheared mess 99L will be then is going to get booted out to sea by the front. Models didn't count on shear being as high as it is and look how strong it is so keep that in mind while mentioning and using the models as a forecast basis.
1532. guygee
Posted By: CalvinSimonds at 5:31 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"Responding to Guygee: Perhaps Dr. Masters might address the whole question of how a surface circulation can maintain itself UNLESS it is powered by the dynamics of convection. I have always thought of a tropical storm as an organization of thunderstorms. In general, thunderstorms require sheer for their best development. When thunderstorms organize their own sheer (rather than depend on exogenous sheer) we call that event a "hurricane." Thinking this way, I am hard pressed to see how a circulation can be maintained in the absence of thunderstorms.

Hoping that others can help me think this through.
"

Calvin - Interesting way of thinking about a tropical cyclone...it generates it own shear by developing an ULH overhead to sustain the convection. A non-tropical low needs significant differences in temperature so that air density depends on both pressure and temperature. That situation does not arise in the tropics and usually not even in subtropics in early autumn, and it will not be a factor here. Without convection, the LLC of 99L will spin down...trapped under a layer of dry stable air.

How much it decays will determine if it is likely to redevelop once the high passes over to the east...right now the LLC looks very weak to me, and I just do not see how it can survive out past a couple of days.
ECG thats what I'm talking about the front has to seperate from the fron and then transition to a warm core system and build and wrap around convection becoming a closed low. I mean all this has to have time to happen and I don't think it will with a front coming through this weekend and no one really knows when shear will lessen. So far people have been saying when and if but thats not good enough! Even if shear lessened right now it still would need more time then it has to becom a true TC so thats why 99L will stay exactly what it is and how it looks now to me and IMHO.
How many times have I asked everyone to please not discount invests until all is said and done? And all is not said and done. 94L came back from practically nothing and became a Category 5... I don't understand why no one realizes this.

I know that conditions don't look good for 99L, but not much development was predicted by now anyway, and shear is forecast to drop tommorow. You cannot go by one flare up or die down of convection to determine if something is going to develop. You just cannot do it. Persistence of convection usually means development, and persistent lack of convection usually means no development. JMHO, but I think people here are being very unwise in giving up on 99L.
1535. guygee
Posted By: KoritheMan at 5:56 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"How many times have I asked everyone to please not discount invests until all is said and done?"

KoritheMan - an "invest" is just an area of interest and may be discounted by anyone at anytime. It is not like we are calling for a sunny day during a hurricane. This blog is for exchange of information and opinions...

Just curious, though, how many times have you asked everyone to please not discount invests until all is said and done?
befor i go to bed.

the system sustain its circulation cause its a low pressure system. right now its in transsition from a baroclinic to a warm cored heat engine system. the low is interacting with the a upper level trough. this is generating the power for the storm. shear has kept the convection from building over the system. once that happens it can finish its transisition. as we see tonight in the eroding of the weak frontal boundary extending from the system.

right now the shear is more of a hinderance than the dry air. we have seen convection try to wrap around all day and its blown ne. once this relaxes it will allow this wrapping to occur. casue the dry air is forcasted to moderate as well all models call for a system. not some but all. could it be a regualr baroclinic low instead of a tropical system? sure. but at this point all models conculude a low pressure system will form.

now the thing is many of you seem to have gotten impatient. the shear has not even had a chance to relax and many are writing it off. funny stuff. it has maintined convection. has shown no signs of weakening or degrading. this is a hostile enviroment the system is under. but improving. tomm and tomm ngiht are when this system is forcasted to start to get its act together. lets wait till the shear relaxes and see what happens. i for one am make arrangments to be either in va beach or the outerbanks. i feel confident a system will form. what it will impact is another story. i still think this could be a fish storm.

once again my 2 cents from lurking all night.

night all

1538. guygee
Posted By: ECG at 6:04 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.
The models never expected much before Friday. There is much agreement among all of them on that point.
So if RECON didn't find the real evidence on the first flight......there's always the next one.


I think all of the models were counting on a seed of tropical activity that most likely will not be there Friday. I'll be very interested to see the next couple of model runs.

I'll never make it past the eclipse, so g'nite all.
1539. guygee
Not really so much impatience, lefty, it is my observation that the convection is moving farther and farther away from the LLC, and the former upper level organization is completely decoupled now.

I guess we will know more tomorrow...
Personally, I am not ready to declare this one a goner yet. Twice the majority has done that & look what became of those 2 storms. "If" indeed it has started moving s-sw it should be in an environment where the the sheer decreases. These invests are like the little waves that could this year. Very persistant. look at 98l. It was declared dead, but, is still hanging by a thread. just mho.
Thanks, everybody for helpful responses to my query about circulations sustaining themselves in the absence of convection. The impression I get from adding up your answers is that even when the convection is swept eastward by exogenous sheer, there remains a shallow center of low pressure sufficient to maintain the circulation. OK, so far, so good.

At the risk of being a bonehead, Let me pursue this one step further. A center of low pressure implies rising air ... or at the very least, air that is sinking less than the air around it. So we have air streaming in (cyclonic circulation) and air rising.... Where the heck is that air GOING in the absence of convection? Or, to put it round the other way, why is the rising air in the center of this cyclonic circulation not producing thunderstorms given the airmass it is in?

Did anybody notice the center of cyclonic circulation between the two hurricane remnants in central america? Shifted westward, could this become the source for a third new hurricane off the coast of Mexico?

Calvin
Posted By: guygee at 6:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.
Not really so much impatience, lefty, it is my observation that the convection is moving farther and farther away from the LLC, and the former upper level organization is completely decoupled now.

I guess we will know more tomorrow...


there never was any upper orginisation. the warm core and tropical aspect of the system is the surface circulation. most of the convection is enhancement by the upper trough that was extending down and helping form the weak frontal boundary. the moving of the convection east is due to this trough starting to move off so the forcing casuing the convection if moving away. this will also lead to shear relaxing and the actual system itself will take over. unless the dry air kills it.


hope that makes sense lol

finally off to bed
1545. KRL
How come not much talk on west pacific storms?

Fitow is going right in on Tokyo.

F
1547. guygee
Posted By: leftyy420 at 6:38 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"there never was any upper orginisation. the warm core and tropical aspect of the system is the surface circulation. most of the convection is enhancement by the upper trough that was extending down and helping form the weak frontal boundary. the moving of the convection east is due to this trough starting to move off so the forcing casuing the convection if moving away. this will also lead to shear relaxing and the actual system itself will take over. unless the dry air kills it"

Lefty - Hard to imagine an invest that doesn't show at least some signs of favorable vertical organization. I have been watching this system for the past 5 days as it was sitting off of the FL coast nearby and within radar range. Here is a picture of "proto-99L" that clearly shows an organized upper-level high over the area of convection. Since that time the system has lost the upper-level high and become extra-tropical. (Can a warm core low even exist for long without some upper-level support?). Anyways have a look.
Link

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
1548. guygee
Latest 02/06 0600Z GFS and GFDL showing similar track but weaker system resulting from 99L...I expect this weakening forecast trend will continue with the 1200Z runs.

Post-eclipse imagery shows bulk of convection previously associated with 99l moving east of 65W. No new convection forming in the dry stable air south of building high.

It seems quite possible that it is the high south of 99L that will dominate steering of the remnants of 99L's moisture field.
Just curious, though, how many times have you asked everyone to please not discount invests until all is said and done?

Since 94L became Felix. Taught me a lesson.

I respect all opinions btw, unless they are the opinions of a troll. Obviously, you're not a troll, so I respect you.
Morning y'all

I see 99 has lost most of it's convection. Shear is getting to it pretty good, but imho, it has slid south just a little over night and the shear should begin to relax tonight allowing the system to become more and more tropical. I will be very interested to see the next QS pass as well as the visible images this morning.

guygee, I see you are in the doubters camp :~) Well my take is that last nights QS, to me, shows the system has a fairly strong circulation. This did not just fall apart in 8hrs. Although, after looking at some of the imagery, it may have become slightly more elongated.

Wait and see as always is with the tropics
1551. FitzRoy
Morning, please can someone explain ULH and QS to me? Thanks.
KRL "How come not much talk on west pacific storms? Fitow is going right in on Tokyo."
EGC "Fitow is less than 100mph. Granted it is formidable...but rather uneventful for them."

And a bit anticlimactic after entertaining Godzilla and friends.
Morning Fitz, got to work but....

Upper Level High...Basically a high in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

QS is QuicksSCAT. It is a satellite that is designed to measure winds over the ocean using a scatterometer.

You can find both of those links on the
Quick Links page. Lot's of other great stuff there as well.

See y'all later
1554. FitzRoy
Thanks. I actually found an article which simply explains a lot of stuff to novices like me. I'm going to try to put a link to it here for those who are similarly challenged by the images and terminology.
1555. IKE
From this mornings TWO.....

"A non-tropical area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda
has become less organized since yesterday. Upper-level winds are
not favorable for development at this time but environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for a subtropical
or tropical cyclone to form during the next day or two."..............

20-40 knots of shear..all of the convection near Bermuda...well west of the COC...99L is on life-support.
Yes IKE, but it is pretty much stationary, which means, that although its getting ripped apart now, the shear will start to decrease as the high builds and push this thing west into favorable conditions
1557. IKE
99L near 29.5N, 69.5W...pressure up to 1006 mb's.
pressure was never really down below 1006mb's IKE, I have no clue why the navy put that when the lowest the recon found was 1006mb
Getting ready to head to work, but right now NWS Wilmington [NC] isn't giving much hope for 99L. Forecast is for 30-40% chance of rain this weekend, only a Gale Warning up for the offshore waters, and they are usually prudent when it comes to storms.

Guess we shall see what happens later today.
also just something interesting...that wave has emerged from africa and has not "poofed"
1562. IKE
Apparently the low-level swirl is suppose to get caught under the building high...forced back to the west...skirt the OBX...then become a fish system.

A lot of the models keep 99L weaker than on previous runs...a TS...not much more. A stronger cold front is forecast to be approaching the east coast in 6 days. Whatever 99L is, will be shoved out to sea then.

The 06Z GFS is running now and shows a weaker system skirting the OBX and going east of the mid-Atlantic coast....then out to sea.
1563. IKE
If I'm wrong, so be it...I don't think 99L will become a major system. I see what is suppose to happen, but don't think it'll cause major east coast problems.
1564. IKE
Here's your long-range forecast discussion from the "BIG APPLE".....

"Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
no significant changes based on latest model data...with a general
low pressure track up the coast from the southeastern US Sunday into
Monday...then a pass to the southeast of the region by Tuesday.
This low does look to pass east of the region as ridge flattens
and westerlies sink southward steering the low south and east. A
stronger cold front approaches by middle week. The bottom line is the
region could be in for a period of wet weather depending on this
low track. Increasing southeast and east flow Sunday and Monday
will keep temperatures cool...and weather unsettled. Next upstream
front...which has stronger upper support...finally moves through
by Wednesday."


99L has been an under-achiever up till now.
1566. IKE
I see what's suppose to happen..I see the high building in over the Carolina's and just off of the coast. 99L should start to reverse course soon. Things going against it...dry-air to it's west. Twenty to 30+ knots of shear.
1567. IKE
Two more things...99L won't be intensifying today...not with these conditions...and 2....

this coffees good.....
1568. IKE
The ECMWF has backed way off on development w/99L....

Link
1569. IKE
NAM model run initializes 99L south and west of where it is. Throw that model run out....

Link
1570. CFL
06/0645 UTC 29.2N 69.4W EXTRATROPICAL 99L
99L....can you say "poof".....y'all have a great weekend...
1572. IKE
Posted By: CFL at 5:40 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
06/0645 UTC 29.2N 69.4W EXTRATROPICAL 99L


Is that the "T" number/Dvorak?
gsueagle you said 94L wouldnt develop no way...you were wrong...99L may or may not develop...today wil tell all
if the shear doesnt decrease today, then 99L is done...if the shear does decrease, then it wont be over
1575. CFL
yes ike
1576. IKE
Posted By: CFL at 5:48 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
yes ike


Looks like the life-support is being pulled on 99L.
I already knew it was nontropical...didnt need dvorak to tell me that...
1578. IKE
Memo to accuweather...please update your discussion on 99L...it's outdated.
1579. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 5:53 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
I already knew it was nontropical...didnt need dvorak to tell me that...


Well..it was at 2.0...now it's nothing.
despite what 99L looks like on infrared...it has a strong CoC, its going to get pushed west when the high builds....upper lvl winds will become more favorable...today is judgement day
1581. IKE
Updated 0900 CIMSS shear map....

Link

Shear is 20-30 knots and has increased the last 3 hours...

99.9% chance it's time for...NEXT!
hows the Africa wave ?
The trof will move out today...winds wil become more favorable...end up story....we will see later today
BBL, you know IKE, if your wrong I will have to come down on ya for it pretty hard lol
1585. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 6:00 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
BBL, you know IKE, if your wrong I will have to come down on ya for it pretty hard lol


It's okay 236. I can handle it. LOL.
lol IKE...


I think many will be surprised at what the morning QS and visible images show...

99 will not likely be a major storm, but I still think a moderate TS is by no means out of the question...
1587. Drakoen
99L is now extratropical. Not surprised.
1588. Drakoen
I think this depicts that.
1589. IKE
It got caught underneath that trough...guess it undercut it and ripped it apart(shear).
1590. Drakoen
yea Ike. You can see the LLC to the west of the frontal boundary.


1591. IKE
From Accuweather....

"An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of northern Florida is expected to develop into a tropical depression within the next day or so. Conditions in this part of the Atlantic Basin are favorable, and it seems likely that this tropical system will be given the next name on the list in the Atlantic season - Tropical Storm Gabrielle."....

Favorable????

right they will drop 99L today



now we turn too the Africa wave
1593. IKE
That's what is puzzling...computer models develop 99L into a storm.

Computer models didn't develop Felix...and it was a cat 5.

1594. Drakoen
Posted By: IKE at 11:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2007.

That's what is puzzling...computer models develop 99L into a storm.

Computer models didn't develop Felix...and it was a cat 5.


They're out to lunch.
1595. IKE
Agree...guess that's why they have that disclaimer at the bottom of the page on them. Jeez...lousy job they do lately.
1596. Drakoen
The wave of Africa looks like its holding up nicely.
ike i need your job lol you have a lot of time to post lol. on a srious note ike their are some definites today saints and colts cant wait plenty of grass cutting and chores this weekend. usm vs tennessee lsu va tech ne vs the jets those are defintes also on 1700 post continous scrutinized sheared 99l not definite also maybe if the shear lessens what develops off this trough is in the eastern gulf gfs nam and few others show something weak developing and moving to the north central gulf shear is supposed to lessen another not definite lol so try the definites and spend much less time on the not definites life is well rounded lol god bless
wow what a change overnight on 99L.
1599. Drakoen
The red flag on 99L has been raised.
good morning all. Ike whats the coordinates for the low pressure east of n fl?
99L looks dead... poof.

Even the the convection in the western GOM looks better than 99L.
BTW... interesting to see that convection from yesterdays FL westcoast seabreeze storms persist offshore overnight. It typically doesn't do that.
236
what image of 99 looks to be hanging on? link please...
1604. IKE
Posted By: SETXHchaser at 6:31 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
good morning all. Ike whats the coordinates for the low pressure east of n fl?


29.5N, 69.5W.
ike thats 99 isnt it?
1606. Drakoen
First morning visible of out Extratropical system.
Looks like toast to me...

Y'all have a great day. Off to work.
Ike?
what time was that report from accuweather? 99 looks all tied up ready to get blown away. But it has been persistant!
Ahem! All the models are still calling for development and shear is still expected to decrease. Give it time, and remember what happened with 94L (Felix).
:) Jp - you have a great day!

1614. Drakoen
Dry air continue to push southward.
99 sure did choke last night. Today is the day, now or never. I do think, however, that post-season anaylsis may find this system was briefly an STD.
TAZ
Good morning, think 99 will hold on until the shear gets off, or do you think it'll become part of the shear? models have it going a little farther n, when it hits conus, this morning than last night, but consenses is that it will hold together and take a ride to the w...
stoopid
there we go talking about stds again, this is supossed to be a weather blog not sex ed...
Henriette might turn out worse than expected. Watch for news out of Baja California.
Both the ECMWF/GFS have really backed off intensity of 99L now.
more rain in SETX rain, rain, rain for 9 months...
jp
if 99 turns into something, I WILL NOT let anyone forget you stayed with it when everyone else killed it!
I can't seem to find a blog for Fitow - can someone point me in the right direction ..... thanks
gotta go to work, check back later...
I can see that 99L's circulation has not moved at all lately. A possible stall and head back west is possible. It appears it is trying to separate from the front as the trough moves northeast away from the low. If this is successfully happening then we could see some development later today as the turn isn't suppose to happen until later today I believe. This could be the beginning for our little low. Circulation is still vigorous however and shear will start to decrease soon with the departure of the trough. With these type of low's it always take longer for them to separate from the troughs. Give this some time, and if it doesn't develop by Friday then we can say its done, but today is crucial for the disturbance.
Drak, where are you getting extra tropical?

Seriously y'all, 99 is not dead, is in the bad conditions that were expected. These conditions should change over the next 24hrs or so. If there is still a low level circulation when these conditions improve then it is likely that 99 will develop further.
jp, for a change we agree :~)

Also, that south movement was forecast by the models. It should only continue for a short while and then we should see the turn back to the west.
1631. Drakoen
Seems that the low is still riding along the frontal boundary. Dry air is still a problem.
I am getting extratropical from the SSD site. Also one would only have to look at the current organization and location of the system to determine that.
Slightly elongated, but by no means dead or extra tropical. Right around 29N 69W
troll so vain you probably think this blog is about you
Also one would only have to look at the current organization and location of the system to determine that.

Exactly Drak, try doing that...
lol 03, I love that monkey!
1636. Drakoen
update:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/1145 UTC 28.7N 69.3W EXTRATROPICAL 99L -- Atlantic Ocean
yes SJ that monkey is hilarious as good as the stuff Patrap has:)
We can't write off 99L yet.

Also, that African wave seems to be holding together nicely. I think it'll become a invest during the weekend. If it's still holding together then. Any thoughts on the Africa nwave?
Actually 03, I think I got that link from Pat...lol Could be mistaken though.
jp, the latest GFDL, not that any model is worth too much, shows a good period of almost due W motion prior to a sharp N to NNE turn.
99L's circulation appears to be making that turn, or beginning to make the turn. The high is to the north now and only time will tell when we see that westward turn, after the tunr happens everything will be going 99L's way. Gabrielle will come to us tomrrow most likely.
1643. Finnmet
I dont know if the LLC of Felix survive over the Central America mountains,but his remnants looks like trying to redevelop.Possible Ivo in the EPAC in the next 2-3 days.
Back to work for me, see y'all later
1646. guygee
Well 99L is still on the NRL page, but it doesn't look like much of anything tropical is there. What is left is a large cyclonic circulation...with OPC posting Gale Warnings for as early as tonight through Sat-Sun with backing winds 25-35 kts for the areas HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W and CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W.... from the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST, NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC, 430 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2007 forecast:

.SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...LOW PRES NEAR 30N 70W WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT W TODAY AND TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NW INTO THE S WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN PASS INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SAT. THE LOW WILL MOVE N TO NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY MON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY THROUGH SAT...THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA SUN AND MON.
Looks like scraps from Felix is still the most active system out there. Although not a closed circulation, it still has it's CCW "kick". If anything 99L looks to have gone anticyclonic.

1648. Drakoen
Could be a strong extratropical storm...
Also, that African wave seems to be holding together nicely. I think it'll become a invest during the weekend. If it's still holding together then. Any thoughts on the African wave?
I'm not totally counting 99 out, it still has a slim chance, but it doesn't look good. Today is, as already said, judgement day. If 99 doesn't get it together today as it enters more favorable conditions, then it's done.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-rb.html

Nice looking wave a spin as well...favorable shear...no dry air
Good Morning to all...99L still hanging in there

Remnants of Henriette moving into the Southwest US

Radar Image



Satellite Image

If the past and current model consensus for 99l turns out to be a bust, the blame may be laid on their failure to "see" the upper trof that has been a constant companion to this system.
If it was there at all in the models, the trof was oriented SW to NE digging SW over GA,FL instead of N/S west of FL.
Another feature not handled well is the strength and movement of low pressure now centered over Missouri. imo, this kept the trof semi-vigorous enough to provide shear and dry air while 99l is/was trying to transition from cold core to warm core.

For you rookies sometimes when you get torn up systems like 99 when they do get favorable conditions they can develop rapidly. Not sure what 99 has planned.
1658. IKE
Posted By: Stoopid1 at 7:24 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
I'm not totally counting 99 out, it still has a slim chance, but it doesn't look good. Today is, as already said, judgement day. If 99 doesn't get it together today as it enters more favorable conditions, then it's done.


There are no favorable conditions...shear is 20-30 knots....the air to it's west is dry.
1659. Drakoen
I don't think the recon needs to go out there today.
1660. IKE
...
1661. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:28 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
I don't think the recon needs to go out there today.


Nope.
1662. Drakoen
the trough is still digging and i am having a hard time saying 99L will develop with the dry air and 20-30kts of wind shear.
99L

does anyone think the AFRICAN WAVE has a chance.looks very healthy and conditions are good
Felix's death toll now stands at 39

Early reports suggest severe damage in Honduras and Nicaragua after Felix made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane. In Puerto Cabezas, nearly every structure sustained at least roof damage, and many buildings were destroyed.[47] Along the Mosquito Coast, flooding and mudslides were reported, destroying many houses (mostly humble dwellings) and blocking highways. The Government of Nicaragua declared the northern Caribbean coast a disaster area.[48]

At least 39 people have been reported dead. 38 of them have been in Nicaragua[49] (including a drowning death on a boat, impact from a fallen tree and at least one indirect death caused by medical complications after birth[50]) and one in Honduras (in a motor vehicle accident caused by heavy rain and landslides). However, at least 200 others are missing (mostly at sea), and communications are difficult, to impossible in many areas. According to official information, at least 40,000 people have been affected and 9,000 houses destroyed, most of them in the Nicaraguan city of Bilwi (Puerto Cabezas), where "State of Disaster" has been decreted by the government. A total lack of supplies and services has been also reported in the area. The response has been almost immediate: Help from Venezuela, Cuba, the US and Honduras has been received, and a lot of organizations, such as the Nicaraguan Red Cross, the media and universities have organized collections all over the country. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has visited Bilwi on the day after the catastrophe, promising the reconstruction of houses to the people affected. [51][52]
1668. Drakoen
Looks like another 96L or 97L for now...
Mornin all. I also was looking at the GOM as well as what I believe is the old 98L. Does the radar above show 98L firing up alittle. Is the system in the gulf just too close to land to develop? Preciate the info. Thanks.
1670. GetReal
IMHO it appears to me that you can stick a fork into 99L, it appears to be done for. 20 to 30 knots of windshear as Drak has already noted, and enough dry air over the system to prevent a comeback. The current LLC swirl should fall apart by this evening.
1671. Drakoen
JP
Apparantly my cousin was playing on my lap top the other day while I was on vacation. Something about economics, whatever? he was cracking up at me after he told me he signed onto this blog and caused some kind of up roar. For the record, I am in here to find out knowledge and information regarding tropical cyclones. I slapped the teen around a bit for everyone.
1674. Drakoen
99L center looks very elongated.
Here's what the Mets are saying now about ex-99L:

that upper low, which was poorly foreseen and highly underestimated in just about all the modeling, laid 99L flat. the system is finally 'blocked', i.e. track is bending south and should turn west shortly. at the same time that upper low hasn't cut off, or moved west of the system, or done any of the things that would have lessened shear. 99L behaved more like a frontal low, clinging to the western side of the upper low, and has now lost much of its definition and convective activity as the induced baroclinic conditions subsided.
all of the models are out to lunch. if anything survives this (which has longer odds now, with all the subsidence to fight and so little definition) the near unanimous contention that it will latch onto the first shortwave and recurve near north carolina is probably also out to lunch. for whatever remains, i'd expect it to sort of jerk and bob around in weak steering, working slowly westward under the ridge while it lasts. otherwise, the near tropcial cyclone we had the other day is a wash.
Posted By: VaSurfer at 12:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.
JP
Apparantly my cousin was playing on my lap top the other day while I was on vacation. Something about economics, whatever? he was cracking up at me after he told me he signed onto this blog and caused some kind of up roar. For the record, I am in here to find out knowledge and information regarding tropical cyclones. I slapped the teen around a bit for everyone.

Ya gotta love relatives....really ya have to:)
1679. IKE
JP...it shows it at 29.5N, 69.7W.

There's 20-30 knots of shear there. It won't develop with that.
Posted By: cheeweez at 12:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.
Is something trying to develop in the GOM??

Now that ya mention it, it does look kinda creepy out the backdoor...

Is that anything to worry about since it's been hanging since late yesterday afternoon?

Thanks!
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

99L center looks very elongated.


I would tend to agree with my esteemed colleague.
vis and qs would agree also. :)
1684. Drakoen
Nude swirl
Posted By: VaSurfer at 12:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

JP
Apparantly my cousin was playing on my lap top the other day while I was on vacation. Something about economics, whatever? he was cracking up at me after he told me he signed onto this blog and caused some kind of up roar. For the record, I am in here to find out knowledge and information regarding tropical cyclones. I slapped the teen around a bit for everyone


Thats your story and you're stickin' to it...
1688. IKE
Posted By: boobless at 7:52 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

99L center looks very elongated.

I would tend to agree with my esteemed coleague.
vis and qs would agree also. :)


It is becoming elongated...it may have dropped slightly south...ain't much left of this.
1689. Drakoen
Jp read bob's blog...
Center is under 15-20kt shear... thats not horrible. Rest of system under 20-30kt.

Shear
Good morning...

We'll you can say good bye to the magnet that has been pulling everything into the caribbean.A pattern change in the making.

MID ATLC UPPER TROF FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND EXTEND
INTO LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND AFFECT
THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO DRAW APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVES IN A MORE WNW TO NW TRAJECTORY AS THEY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
ATLC TOWARDS THE E/NE CARIB...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RECENT
PATTERN THAT FORCED DEAN AND FELIX ALMOST DUE W. GLOBAL MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE W AFRICAN COAST...BUT THIS
FORECAST STEERING FLOW...IF CORRECT...WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM W
THEN NW AND INTO W CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...TIS THE PEAK OF THE
SEASON...SO EVERY TROPICAL WAVE BEARS WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL
REGION...REGARDLESS OF INITIAL MODEL IMPRESSIONS
1692. guygee
Posted By: Drakoen at 12:28 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"I don't think the recon needs to go out there today."

Is that tongue-in-cheek Drak, or are you serious?
1694. Jedkins
This system never was a threat to the corlinas, its been a joke all along, lol I could see this comin a mile away.
1695. Drakoen
Anyways i'm of. I'll be back later.
1697. Drakoen
Yea Jedkins another 96L and 97L LOL.
so is there a new area of interest out there yet?
Posted By: Jedkins at 12:58 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

This system never was a threat to the corlinas, its been a joke all along, lol I could see this comin a mile away.


too bad the rest of us had to look at it from a 1,000 miles away..
MID ATLC UPPER TROF FORECAST TO SHIFT SW AND EXTEND
INTO LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND AFFECT
THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TO DRAW APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVES IN A MORE WNW TO NW TRAJECTORY AS THEY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
ATLC TOWARDS THE E/NE CARIB...INDICATING A CHANGE FROM RECENT
PATTERN THAT FORCED DEAN AND FELIX ALMOST DUE W. GLOBAL MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE W AFRICAN COAST...BUT THIS
FORECAST STEERING FLOW...IF CORRECT...WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM W
THEN NW AND INTO W CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...TIS THE PEAK OF THE
SEASON...SO EVERY TROPICAL WAVE BEARS WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL
REGION...REGARDLESS OF INITIAL MODEL IMPRESSIONS


Hmm... doesn't sound good... but that is indicating the fish pattern may be coming.
1701. IKE
From weatherguy03....

"Thursday September 6th. Update:
Well it looks like the patience of the NHC payed off yesterday as invest 99L looks less organized this morning. An Upper Trough located just to the West of this system has not lifted North as quickly as the models forecasted a few days ago, thus Westerly shear of near 20kts. continues to plague this system. The models are still very stubborn on lifting this trough Northward the next 24 to 36 hours giving 99L an opportunity to develop. You can see on the QuikScat this morning a very elongated center indicative of a weak system.".....

Posted By: Jedkins at 12:58 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

This system never was a threat to the corlinas, its been a joke all along, lol I could see this comin a mile away
.

Wish we could all be as talented as you.
1703. GetReal
JP 99L will have to drop due south to near 25N, in order to get anywhere near favorable UL conditions. I do not see 99L making it that far south.
Folks development looks unlikely to me now...After looking at WV loops last night it looked like on its last legs.Its unlikely this thing will turn all the way back towards the U.S.
I do see that the COC is not elongated, just the clouds the the N appear to be elongated along that boundry but there is definately a clear naked COC (with accompanying low according the the NHC). All this is moving S into some more favorable conditions. I see further dev. of this today if, in fact, the shear is what is say it is south of COC.
Posted By: saveabeagle at 12:51 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.

Is that anything to worry about since it's been hanging since late yesterday afternoon?

Thanks!


SaveACenter, er I mean SaveABeagle...

It would probably go away if you would quit curing meat by hanging it from the eaves of your back porch...

Seriously - nothing to see in the GOM at the moment - conditions aren't even remotely favorable, except in the BOC (and then only marginally there)...

From Cnn.com:

PUERTO CABEZAS, Nicaragua (AP) -- Desperate families searched through the early morning hours Thursday for scores of missing Nicaraguans on the Caribbean coast where Hurricane Felix blew away villages, flooded rivers and killed at least 18 people.
Some 150 Miskito Indians who were adrift on the ocean clinging to buoys, canoes and slabs of wood were rescued by authorities, said Honduran federal Congresswoman Carolina Echeverria, who represents the northeastern province of Gracias a Dios, on the Nicaraguan border.

Nine of those rescued were in serious condition and were being attended by five Honduran doctors, Echeverria said.

"We believe there are many others out there floating on the sea," she said.

Far to the northwest, meanwhile, Henriette plowed into Mexico for the second time in two days, making landfall shortly before 9 p.m. EDT near the port city of Guaymas with top sustained winds of 75 mph. Seven deaths were reported from the Pacific storm, which hit Baja California on Tuesday.

Felix came ashore Tuesday in Nicaragua as a Category 5 hurricane packing 160 mph winds and heavy rains that caused mudslides, destroyed homes, uprooted trees and devastated villages. Watch how Felix has raised fears about deadly mudslides in Honduras

Wednesday night, Nicaraguan Civil Defense Department spokesman Alvaro Rivas said the confirmed death toll had doubled to 18. Defense officials said President Daniel Ortega had put the toll at 21. There was no immediate explanation for the discrepancy.

Rivas also said at least 60 people were missing: more than 50 in the Matagalpa province in the north and another 10 around hard-hit city of Puerto Cabezas.

The dead included a man who drowned when his boat capsized, a woman killed when a tree fell on her house and a newborn who died shortly after birth because her mother couldn't get medical attention

Among the missing were four fishermen whose small sailboat sank as Felix's center passed overhead. A survivor, Fernando Pereira, 24, said he clung to a piece of wood for 12 hours, despite a dislocated shoulder, and washed ashore at the village of Sandy Bay only hours after Felix made landfall there. He hadn't seen his friends since.

"I felt horrible," he said. "I was drinking salt water, and I thought I was going to die."

Others were caught in the sea as well. Jelivaro Climax, 22, said he had to swim through enormous waves to reach shore.

"Lightning flashed through a pitch black sky," he said. "I don't know how I survived. I swam with everything I had, and I was sure the sea would take me."

Felix swept over the Miskito Coast, an impoverished region where about 150,000 people live in jungle settlements. Their hamlets of wooden shacks and coconut groves are remote even in good weather, reachable only by air or flat-bottom boats.

The Miskitos, descendants of Indians, European settlers and African slaves, live semiautonomously, much like people on Indian reservations in the U.S.

There wasn't enough fuel after the storm for boats to make long trips, and Felix snapped steel cables that guided a small ferry carrying people and cars from Puerto Cabezas to the village of Wawahum.

Felix also wiped out crops and damaged most of the 70 tons of food and emergency goods that had been flown in before the storm.

On Wednesday, it was hard to find a building that wasn't damaged. Puerto Cabezas' hospital was filled with water, and doctors attended to the injured at an improvised clinic.

The remains of Felix were still dumping rain Wednesday on Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and thousands of evacuees anxiously stayed away from shaky hillside slums and swollen rivers.

In San Pedro Sula, in northern Honduras, one shantytown filled with water after a river burst its bank. Police rode bulldozers to evacuate slum dwellers from water that was waist-deep and rising, but many refused to leave, fearing their remaining possessions would be stolen.

David Serato, 42, left. "Life is more important than personal belongings," he said. "If I stayed, I would die."

Many had feared a repeat of the 1998 nightmare of Hurricane Mitch, which stalled over Central America for days, causing floods and mudslides that killed nearly 11,000 people and left more than 8,000 missing.

On Mexico's western coast, Henriette moved across the Gulf of California, and at 5 a.m. EDT, its center was located over the state of Sonora in Mexico, about 400 miles southwest of El Paso, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Its center later made its second landfall near the Mexican city of Guaymas in Sonora, said Jack Beven, a specialist with the Miami-based center. Hours later the Henriette was downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved inland and its sustained winds dropped to 35 mph.

Schools and ports were closed and people evacuated from low-lying areas, but the storm was expected to weaken quickly over the desert before dumping a few inches of rain Thursday on New Mexico.

Any thoughts on the wave that just came off africa....looks very good w/ nice conditions ahead
It seems alot of people are trying to hold on for dear life to 99L it's dead and won't amount to anything subtropical or tropical lets just move on if you all need closure then fine. I keep hearing if it moves in this direction and if it survives through the day and if it wraps convection thats alot of if's. Only thing that seems certain is 99L is being sheared heavily and has to fight dry air and is being effected by an ULL. Can you that still think 99L is alive tell me why without using if's or maybe's or possibly?
The upper level low that really is still there and has not backed off as predicted continues rip up 99L...Looks more like a cold front then anything tropical.
Repost by boobless.

Posted By: boobless at 1:41 AM GMT on September 04, 2007.

Just for the record, basing 99's premature demise on a fairly strong southern branch jet to dig down over TN,GA, and link up w/its northern branch putting 99 out to sea.
If I am ever on life support, I want to make sure ya'll on't have power of attorney, ya'll would pull the plug in a skinny minute! LOL

Conditions are certainly not favorable today, and I agree 99L is on life support.... but still has a good circulation..... and as long as it does, it still deserves scrutiny. It ain't over till the fat lady sings!

I still expect 99L to "approach" the east coast as a STS or TS...... expect little change in 99L today..... if it can survive until tomorrow, it has a good chance to still be a named storm....
Thanks JP and I understand what you are saying but the models didn't forecast that ULL and 99L in response to it didn't act like a tropical entity and move away from it. The models didn't count on 99L moving as far east as it did so it has to make a journey(not a trip) back to effect the coast and then it has until what Sunday before the next front comes down and shunts it off to the North maybe NE or NNE
If I am ever on life support, I want to make sure ya'll on't have power of attorney, ya'll would pull the plug in a skinny minute! LOL


Priceless!
amazin. That is the shear beauty of weather. It is nothing but what ifs and if this then that. Get used to it. There are no absolutes or positives in weather except for that it is unpredictable and it does "happen" that's it. Have fun LOL..
F1or1d1an thanks...

And just for the record I cure all my meat in a dehydrator..not on the backporch anymore..it kept falling into the pool:p

It does look kind of creepy out over the water though still....
Well 99l looks alot better than 98l ever did at this point in time when everyone was questioning it's ability to develope, and look how long people went on and on about holding on hope of development. I am still waiting on the westward shift of 99l before i start making assumptions as to what this system is going to do.
wx 4me if it was all about what if's and such then there would be no def. rules and mechanics why should there be with it all about if's but I got the gist of what you're trying to say.
JP that ULL has to back off in order for 99l to have a chance.We'll see what happens in the coming days but this thing is almost about to pass bermuda lol.This will have to be a monster ridge to it bring back all the way to the coast.
jp, that is what I have been looking at, as much as watching 99L.....

The high is the key to this puzzle....... I "think" the high will build in a little stronger than the models have been indicating.... I think the last GFDL run is possible picking up on this a bit, as it and the CMC are the left outlying models.....

as I stated previously, I would not expect much change in 99L during the day, but reports of 99L's demise are a bit premature I believe.

BBL, gotta get some work done! :)

also, I do agree at this point, that recon would be a waste of gas money! ;)
If I am ever on life support, I want to make sure ya'll on't have power of attorney, ya'll would pull the plug in a skinny minute! LOL

aww come on you're wrong about me! I'd pull the cord in a (too) skinny second LOL.
well done as always storm! :)

call it like you see it, and let the chips fall! :)
1733. Squid28
Last night, some body put a link up to a NAM run, that had something turning on in the gulf on the 8th (?) if I read it right. It looked like it cranked up over by that frontal boundary off the west side of florida then went w-wnw then nw and the animation stopped with it looking at the upper Texas coast.

I still think something could come from the former 98L mess and the other little blob hanging around due north of it.....
StormW,
Can't argue with that. As you quickly mentioned last night, if the trof can lose some of its influence, the models begin to make some sense. The poof scenario and the models scenario are both valid. A pound of caution would do us all good.
Thanks
Now I am not so sure. I remember myself writing on this forum about possibly Felix might make landfall on a undeveloped low population area and spare the world the grieve. Well after reading the recent post it might of been better for this to slam ashore the Yucatan area at least these people would of been ready. Shows how backwoods this part of the world underdeveloped infastructure poverty ext ext. No wonder there are so many illegals in the us from that area.
1736. K8eCane
its amazing how many of you get silently ENRAGED when you think there may be an east coast system. Ike, Drakoen, etc
i find it humorous YAWN
1738. guygee
I think I see the cloud pattern that jp is referring to, so I tried to match up a visible image overlay onto an image already overlayed with the PWs, geodetic grid, etc...looking at it from both sides, it has to be acknowledged that the conditions to the west of 99L are dry and stable, not looking conducive for any further development attm...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

bbl.
1739. Squid28
Here is that NAM run, if I am linking right....

Link
1740. Chigz
Lets forget about 99L for now, and cast our eyes on the spectacular African wave that just emerged off the coast and according to Dr M most of the develop this...rotation with this wave is pretty evident and I would like to have some inputs from knowledgeable bloggers like JP on this feature....etc
squid
NAM looks like Houston/Galveston hit and VERY STRONG on 99
boobless
Have you seen the 00 NAM pcp image loop?
1744. Squid28
How often do they run the NAM? Also, I know it's just a model, but given what it does with 99L I have to wonder if it's on crack......

(not hat 99L couldn't develop, but it looks pretty ill right now)
SETX,
I think you crashed their server-trying...
1746. guygee
NAM is not reliable for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis and intensity. It has well-known convective feedback problems, so it has a tendency to generate hurricanes out of thunderstorms.
Is it showing 99l turning south and west into the GOM?
1749. Squid28
I'm not putting a whole lot of faith in it, but it is material for fodder if nothing else. It does spin up non events, but their is a line of showers hanging out off the coast....

neverless, I will occassionally cast an eye in that direction given the time of year....
1750. guygee
Right jp, NAM is good for mid-latitudes over land, and TCs do sometimes go overland into the mid-latitudes to die.

Anyways, I'm half-past late...hard to pull away from this blog...I am gone.
boobless
No its showing two different TC, one 99l getting very strong and drilling SC/NC and it make another out of the blob off the sw coast of fla. the one it shows heading our way is not fully developed, quits frames in 84 hours, still offshore...
1752. IKE
Posted By: K8eCane at 8:33 AM CDT on September 06, 2007.
its amazing how many of you get silently ENRAGED when you think there may be an east coast system. Ike, Drakoen, etc
i find it humorous YAWN


Silently enraged? I don't even live on the east coast.
SETX, guygee,
OK. Looks wet. No wave per sfc analysis in vicinity.
Maybe that pesky trof finally cuts off into a low and drifts west.
whadda ya'll see?
1754. IKE
NEW BLOG!
gg, sorry you gotta go. twisted the crap out of my knee day b4 yesterday-nuttin to do but sit and spit.
see ya.
1756. guygee
Posted By: boobless at 2:05 PM GMT on September 06, 2007.
"SETX, guygee,
OK. Looks wet. No wave per sfc analysis in vicinity.
Maybe that pesky trof finally cuts off into a low and drifts west.
whadda ya'll see?
"

Exratropical gale for SE coast with winds enhanced due to strong gradient between low pressure and high o he north.
1757. guygee
Yeah, gotta go, take care of the knee though!
SETX, from the TWD:
...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF COUPLED WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES MOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA...