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99L a Potential Threat to Hispaniola, Bahamas, U.S. East Coast

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2016

The main Atlantic tropical weather threat to populated areas continues to be Invest 99L, a large tropical wave with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was located about 800 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands late Monday morning. This disturbance was moving west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to these islands beginning on Tuesday evening. Conditions for development will steadily improve in the coming days, and the storm could be trouble for the Bahama Islands late this week--and is a threat to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast early next week. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that 99L had finally managed to fire up a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, in defiance of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that had been interfering with development over the past few days. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that there continued to be a fair amount of dry air around the storm, though the amount of dry air had decreased since Sunday. Other conditions were generally favorable for development, with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27.5°C (82°F), which was close to average.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 99L.

Track forecast: 99L a potential threat to Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the U.S.
A strong ridge of high pressure will keep 99L headed north of due west over the next few days, and the storm should pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Tuesday night through Wednesday, track close to Puerto Rico on Wednesday night, and affect Hispaniola and the Southeastern Bahamas by Thursday. The uncertainty about the track increases greatly thereafter, due to a potential weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering the storm caused by a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 99L. The storm should slow its forward motion to 5 - 10 mph, in response to this trough, and may turn to the north near the central Bahamas. The track of 99L may also be affected by the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona, which could be a few hundred miles to the north or northeast. At this time, it appears that 90L near the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, which is expected to become Tropical Storm or Hurricane Gaston late this week, will be too far from 99L next week to exert a steering influence on it. The steering situation is too complex next week to say how great a threat the storm may pose to the U.S., but 99L is a legitimate threat to make landfall along the East Coast.


Figure 2. The dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as analyzed by satellite at 8 am EDT Sunday, August 21, 2016 (top) and Monday, August 22, 2016 (bottom). The amount of dry air from the SAL interfering with 99L has decreased since Sunday. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Intensity forecast for 99L: commentary by Jeff Masters
Heavy rains from 99L will be capable of causing flash flooding problems in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, but wind damage should not be an issue, since 99L will likely be, at worst, a moderate-strength tropical storm with 55 mph winds once it leaves the islands. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model showed moderately favorable conditions for development through Thursday. Wind shear will be in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, and SSTs will increase from 27.5°C (82°F) to 29°C (84°F), accompanied by an increase in the total heat content of the ocean. Working against development of 99L will be the large size of the storm, dry air of the SAL, potential interaction with the land areas of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and large-scale sinking air over the tropical Atlantic imparted by an unfavorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). None of the Sunday morning (00Z) operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the European, GFS and UKMET models--showed development of 99L into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next four days, though the UKMET model predicted it could be a tropical depression in the Bahamas in five days. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 50%, respectively. I think these odds are too low, and should be 30% and 60%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L on Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 3. Total oceanic heat content (called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, or TCHP) in kilojoules per square centimeter (kJ/cm^2), for August 21, 2016. TCHP was at near-record or record values in the waters surrounding the Bahamas. TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 (orange colors) is commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

I am concerned about the storm’s potential impacts on the Bahamas and the U.S. beyond five days, when the storm will likely be near or just north of the central Bahamas. The models are predicting a more favorable environment for development then, and the storm will be moving quite slowly, potentially allowing for some very high rainfall totals in the Bahamas, and to a lesser extent, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. While the 00Z Monday runs of the GFS and European model ensemble forecast had fewer than 10% of their members predicting that 99L would eventually become a hurricane, the storm will likely spend at least three days over a region of ocean with SSTs that are near record-warm: 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F). Warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in an unusually high total ocean heat content. With some models forecasting that wind shear will be in the light to moderate range early next week, we have the potential for 99L--which does have a large circulation--to rapidly intensify into a large hurricane. Hopefully, the unfavorable phase of the MJO will help to put the brakes on such a possibility.


Figure 4. MODIS visible satellite image of 90L to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, taken on Monday morning, August 22, 2016. Image credit: NASA.


90L in the Eastern Atlantic near tropical depression status
A large tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa (Invest 90L) is near tropical depression status. Satellite images on Monday morning showed a well-organized system with plenty of spin, low-level spiral bands, and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear was moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and SSTs were warm enough for development, 28°C (82°F). The Monday morning operational runs of the European, GFS and UKMET models all showed development of 90L into a tropical storm in 1 - 2 days. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 100%. The wave will head west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Tuesday, skirting the Cabo Verde Islands, then turn more to the northwest on a path similar to Fiona’s. The storm will be moving into a region of ocean where very few tropical cyclones ever make the long trek westwards to hit the United States or Bermuda. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Gaston.


Figure 5. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Fiona at 1515Z (11:15 am EDT) Monday, August 22, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Fiona hangs in for now
Weak but resilient, Tropical Depression Fiona continues to chug through the central Atlantic. Fiona’s convection has been pulsing and decaying every few hours, but it continues to be skewed toward the east side of the low-level center, prohibiting any further development. Fiona was downgraded to depression status by NHC at 11:00 pm EDT Sunday, but the change only involved a drop of 5 mph in Fiona’s top sustained winds. In its 11:00 am EDT update, NHC kept Fiona as a depression with top winds still at 35 mph. Strong vertical wind shear of about 30 knots is still plaguing Fiona, and dry Saharan air surrounds the circulation, with mid-level relative humidity at only around 40%.

Fiona continues to move west-northwest around the west end of the large upper-level ridge that’s also helping to steer 99L and 90L. Over the next day or so, shear will decrease, humidity will increase, and SSTs will remain in the very warm 29-30°C range along Fiona’s track. Most dynamical models project that Fiona will continue to slowly weaken over the next several days, and NHC predicts Fiona to be a remnant low by Tuesday evening. If Fiona manages to make it through Tuesday, a life extension isn’t out of the question, although shear will again increase by late in the week. A weakness in the ridge would allow Fiona to angle more northwestward later in the week, after which the track forecast would become much more complex, especially if there were any interaction with 99L. If Fiona becomes a remnant low, its moisture could well be entrained by 99L’s circulation toward the end of the week.

If Fiona loses its identity as a tropical cyclone before any landfall, as seems probable, it will break the Atlantic’s remarkable string of five consecutive landfalls from the first five named storms of 2016.


Figure 6. Infrared satellite image of Invest 98E as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Monday, August 22, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

East Pacific: Kay on its last legs as 98E begins cranking up
As expected, cooler waters along the path of Tropical Storm Kay are taking a toll. Kay is now a minimal tropical storm, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. Kay’s west-northwest path will soon take it over waters cooler than the 26°C (79°F) benchmark for tropical development. In its 11:00 am EDT Monday advisory, NHC projects Kay to be a depression by tonight and a remnant low by late Tuesday.

Even further offshore, Invest 98E--about 850 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico--has a decent shot at eventual development. 98E is now a large, poorly organized wave, but statistical and dynamical models agree on significant strengthening, especially toward the end of the week. The NHC gives 98E a 10% chance of development by Wednesday and a 50% chance by Saturday. On its consistent west-northwest track, 98E will remain far away from any land areas.


Figure 7. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Mindulle at 0009Z Monday, August 22, 2016 (9:09 pm Sunday EDT), several hours before Mindulle swept northward into Japan near Tokyo. Image credit: CIRA/RAMMB/CSU, courtesy wunderground member 1900hurricane.

West Pacific: Mindulle hammers Japan while Lionrock lurks to the south
At least one person has died and 29 have been injured by winds and rain associated with Tropical Storm Mindulle, according to the Japan Times. Mindulle made landfall on Japan’s Honshu island near Tateyama, about 50 miles south of Tokyo, around 12:30 pm Monday local time (11:30 pm Sunday EDT). After being briefly upgraded by the Japan Meteorological Agency to a minimal Category 1 typhoon, Mindulle passed just east of the Tokyo city center, with millions affected by cancelled or delayed flights and trains across the region. At 12Z Monday (8:00 am EDT), Mindulle was passing across northernmost Honshu, its top winds down to 40 mph. As it transitions to an extratropical cyclone, Mindulle will make its next landfall on eastern Hokkaido island, which was drenched over the weekend by torrential rain associated with Tropical Storm Kompasu. All of Hokkaido and northern Honshu islands were under warnings Monday for heavy rain and potential landslides.


Figure 8. Rainfall rates from 6:00 pm to midnight JST Monday night, August 22, 2016, averaged 30-50 mm/hr (1.2” to 2”/hr) over parts of northern Honshu island, Japan, in bands around the center of Tropical Storm Mindulle. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

The burst of tropical cyclones across the Northwest Pacific in recent days resulted in some odd interactive behavior, including the multil-day southwestward motion of Tropical Storm Lionrock. Located several hundred miles south of Honshu late Monday local time, Lionrock was drifting south-southeast at just 3 mph. Lionrock’s top sustained winds are just 40 mph, and little strengthening is expected over the next few days as the storm embarks on a leisurely clockwise loop. Further down the line, a weakness in the ridge blocking Lionrock will open up north of Japan, which should induce a northward or northeastward acceleration. Conditions by that point will favor strengthening: the GFS and ECMWF agree that Lionrock could be a significant typhoon by this weekend--possibly threatening Japan and/or the Korean peninsula, --but with a great deal of uncertainty on its eventual track. Wunderground member 1900hurricane posted a detailed analysis on Sunday of the West Pacific situation, including Lionrock’s potential future.

Baton Rouge has its wettest month in 174 years of recordkeeping
The astounding rains that led to catastrophic flooding in Louisiana led to a phenomenal monthly rainfall total in Baton Rouge, where formal weather observations began quite early, in 1843. As of Sunday, the August rainfall total in Baton Rouge was 26.97”, which crushes the previous record of 23.73” (May 1907), according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. This monthly total includes 0.76” on Sunday and a total of 6.08” since August 14, when the rains directly associated with the flood-making upper low had already ceased. For the summer since June 1, Baton Rouge has picked up an amazing 40.95”--more rain in three months than downtown Los Angeles has recorded over the last five years (38.79”)!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. beell
Quoting 1494. daddyjames:

Interestingly enough, the 6Z GFS is showing that the vortex that impacts Florida is the remnant low from Fiona, and not development of 99L. Same track as the 0Z ECMWF, but different source . . .


Saw that this morning, dj. Just when I thought this system's contribution to uncertainty was waning. Fiona does not look very well this morning. Worst presentation since the downgrade to TD. But still!

99 going to develop just a matter of when and where a mass of clouds like we see this morning is not going to poof easily
1503. beell

(click for larger image)

99L sheared. Fiona as well.
Quoting 1499. BahaHurican:

I'm not expecting it will do much before Wednesday night at earliest.... but we shall see. This area between 55 and 60 N sometimes aids vorticity.
LOL .... let's hope not!

Later, all ....



That's precisely the coined 'Lesser Antilles Rule' going into effect- that area roughly between 55 and 60 West.
Imminent cyclogenesis seems to be going into effect at this moment. We'll have to wait and see what the HH find on recon...Nevertheless, this will likely be a rough enough night ahead in some of the Lesser Antilles islands as the case may be. The core rotating center appears to be near 16-17N.
VERY close eyes on 99L this morning...

God Bless!
99L vorticity needs work at the 700 mb and 500mb. It will probably take another 48 hrs before we were enough improvement north of the Caribbean.
1506. java162
Quoting 1500. antoursweathercruise:

99L looks like another Erika for the Southern & Central Leewards. Look out folks, it's beginning to look more impressive by the hour. 99L hates to disappoint!


Just like Erika, 99L seems decoupled and sheared with a huge plume of moisture heading west. Hoping there is not another 18In of rain in less than 12hrs
LA has near record lows this week. Almost no AC this summer just the whole house fan in inland Orange County as long as we stay below 95 and the nights cool to the 60s. highs in the low 80s and a chance for lows in the 50s. wow PDO kicking in?
Quoting 1501. beell:



Saw that this morning, dj. Just when I thought this system's contribution to uncertainty was waning. Fiona does not look very well this morning. Worst presentation since the downgrade to TD. But still!






It certainly is not spinning up much of anything on the GFS at the moment. I hope that the GFS model does pan out intensity-wise, given the track for the Bahamas as well as Florida/Gulf Coast..
Interesting that we may be debating whether or not, if anything does develop, it will be Fiona or Hermine. The models do agree that the overall atmospheric pattern certainly favors something potentially impacting the US.
1509. LargoFl
Quoting 1500. antoursweathercruise:

99L looks like another Erika for the Southern & Central Leewards. Look out folks, it's beginning to look more impressive by the hour. 99L hates to disappoint!


Speak about the nemesis- Our memories here of 'evil Erika' are still so fresh... & in certain ways we also remain very vulnerable- almost a year since sustaining critical impacts in some flood prone areas of the island. So understandably anxieties are running high here as many persons are on the alert.
Naturally, on the heels of Erika most people are jittery, panicky and nerve racked...and on the other hand as a coping mechanism some are still complacent and demonstrate some version of storm preparedness amnesia. Nevertheless, collectively we are prepared, stronger and more resilient in many ways since evil Erika (27th August,2015)... Again that deja'vu feeling is ever-present admittedly though.
However, we hope and Pray that Nothing the likes of Erika ever visits our island or any other island for that matter in the foreseeable future.

Most importantly Let's all Keep safe this season!
God Bless!
Calling my meteorologist friend today to set up plans for a chase in south Florida. Katrina was a Category 1. I'd definitely go for that.
Quoting 1511. KoritheMan:

Calling my meteorologist friend today to set up plans for a chase in south Florida. Katrina was a Category 1. I'd definitely go for that.

Best case for you honestly is if it becomes strong and heads towards the straights. A TS/Cat 1 going into the gulf means probably a major somewhere in the eastern gulf.
Quoting 1511. KoritheMan:

Calling my meteorologist friend today to set up plans for a chase in south Florida. Katrina was a Category 1. I'd definitely go for that.


Katrina was a nasty Cat 1.
i was just about to comment that the track on the last GFS run was eerily familiar to the path Katrina ultimately took. And Katrina formed in a similar manner the merger of two areas of vorticity off the Florida coast/Bahamas.

This is getting really weird. Deja vu? Please, no.
06z GFS appears to have dropped the out-to-sea solution and is forcing the storm back west (but without any significant development).
1515. GatorWX
Quoting 1511. KoritheMan:

Calling my meteorologist friend today to set up plans for a chase in south Florida. Katrina was a Category 1. I'd definitely go for that.


I'm game. Katrina was an impressive cat 1. Get it right! ;)
1516. ncstorm
Good Morning everyone..

Quick post this morning..anything the GFS puts out there in long range I take it as fantasy land...HOWEVER in looking at the Euro ensembles that go out to 15 days it also agrees with GFS...I wish you all the best this hurricane season..



Many unknowns remain for 99L. Going along with some earlier discussion, it's very possible Fiona could be the "X factor" in all this. Last night, it was in fact the ECMWF that took a major step towards the GFS in how it handled Fiona's remains. Instead of showing gradual dissipation out at sea, it tracked the vortex into northeast FL. The 6z GFS was even more bullish with Fiona, and had it going further south and basically consuming 99L before it strengthened slightly in the GOM. If Fiona gets towards Florida or the Bahamas as a well defined vorticity area, I don't think it bodes well for 99L. In other words, weaker Fiona= stronger 99L, and vice versa. There are more factors too, but the Fiona factor, or lack thereof, could be the biggest.
1518. GatorWX
Just have to convince my work to shut doors for a day. Most people I work with have never experienced anything tropical worth noting, so may be easy. They think I'm a meteorologist lol. Just gotta talk the talk. Otoh, it could possible be warranted.
1519. Siker

Quoting 1511. KoritheMan:

Calling my meteorologist friend today to set up plans for a chase in south Florida. Katrina was a Category 1. I'd definitely go for that.
I forget, did you say you wouldn't chase a major? Don't know if you have the time / budget / desire for two landfalls, but a stronger 2nd landfall in the Gulf is certainly possible.
I see the Savannah/JAX solution is back on the CMC this morning. ECMWF still in on a delayed Frances-type track.

99L looks better this morning than yesterday evening, and while Gaston may have taken in a little dry air, it's walling itself off from it. Should be a nifty number out there.

edit - clicked the wrong model runs :/
1521. GatorWX
Quoting 1513. daddyjames:



Katrina was a nasty Cat 1.
i was just about to comment that the track on the last GFS run was eerily familiar to the path Katrina ultimately took. And Katrina formed in a similar manner the merger of two areas of vorticity off the Florida coast/Bahamas.

This is getting really weird. Deja vu? Please, no.


It's a dynamic set up for sure. Will it or won't it? Least we have time.
1522. beell
Quoting 1495. BahaHurican:

I gotta run, but two things:

1. RE milling around in the Bahamas.... don't forget that while waters here are super-warm, much of the archipelago is built on banks, or shallow shelves [it's where the name comes from]. You may note that in some TCHP maps much of the western half of the Bahamas is represented as "land". Basically this means that storms lingering in the area will not automatically be able to deepen [rapidly, or even at all]. That has some implications, depending on whether 99L tracks directly over the islands or stays off to the east [where the TCHP is nearly off the charts].

2. I'm noting with interest that forecast maps are bringing Gaston well to the west. While early recurvature is to be expected, much depends on how resilient the ridge is around 45W. Let's hope that we won't be watching it for landfall potential this time next week ....


Unless the slow-down begins N of the DR/PR.
Quoting 1513. daddyjames:



Katrina was a nasty Cat 1.
i was just about to comment that the track on the last GFS run was eerily familiar to the path Katrina ultimately took. And Katrina formed in a similar manner the merger of two areas of vorticity off the Florida coast/Bahamas.

This is getting really weird. Deja vu? Please, no.


I prefer the GFS path to the Euro. I don't buy an immediate recurvature up the spine of Florida. I gave reasons for why earlier, but I'd be happy to repeat them again.
Morning. It's early. 99l had a decent night. Still looks lopsided tho. Coffee!
Dominica seems in for a rough one.. Considering the mountainous terrain of the island, residents should get prepared.
Quoting 1521. GatorWX:



It's a dynamic set up for sure. Will it or won't it? Least we have time.


let's just hope that if it does happen (essentially again - and I know it is very early in the game) the ultimate outcome is vastly different. I am not sure anyone would like to experience Katrina Deux.
Quoting 1444. KoritheMan:



North Florida? I don't buy that.


If that high sits a little more north than past runs have suggested (instead of being centered near west-central NC, southwestern VA), it's totally on the table.
Quoting 1523. KoritheMan:



I prefer the GFS path to the Euro. I don't buy an immediate recurvature up the spine of Florida. I gave reasons for why earlier, but I'd be happy to repeat them again.


No need, I can read back - but I think we would be in agreement. That ridge is pretty much built in with nothing reaching that far south to yank whatever may be there up north,.
1529. GatorWX
Quoting 1526. daddyjames:



let's just hope that if it does happen (essentially again - and I know it is very early in the game) the ultimate outcome is vastly different. I am not sure anyone would like to experience Katrina Deux.


No! I'll never forget the morning after the levees broke, turning on the news. Madness! I do worry about it stalling in the Bahamas before continuing west again. Such as what the hwrf hints at... :/
I just hope that all in the path of 99L just take it seriously the signs are there for trouble and what I am seeing are the models starting to come in agreement on track. Don't make excuses just be prepared.
1532. GatorWX
Hermine forgot to turn north.
Definitely a signature spin of the leading outer edge of the system is visible on the Martinique radar http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antille s-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
-With evident cyclonic rotation and counter clock-wise twist with the convection of 'pre Hermine'... Also, currently, not a leaf is stirring on the east coast...the calm before the storm for sure... My Deja' vu feeling is on max...
Keep safe this season...

God Bless!
Quoting 1529. GatorWX:



No! I'll never forget the morning after the levees broke, turning on the news. Madness! I do worry about it stalling in the Bahamas before continuing west again. Such as what the hwrf hints at... :/


Its fascinated me that the HWRF is very good at intensity, but lousy on track. You think that the two would correlate with one another given the atmospheric conditions at a certain location. I for one am hoping that it incorrect. This far out it tends to overestimate intensity. Let's hope that indeed is the case.
1536. GatorWX
Quoting 1535. daddyjames:



Its fascinated me that the HWRF is very good at intensity, but lousy on track. You think that the two would correlate with one another given the atmospheric conditions at a certain location. I for one am hoping that it incorrect. his far out it tends to overestimate intensity. Let's hope that indeed is the case.


It certainly would be bad if it was conservative.
99L 60/60 as of 2 a.m.
This is from 6:37am NHC Discussion
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located about 348 nm east-southeast of the Leeward Islands extending from 11N to 21N with axis near 55W.
The wave is associated with a 1009 mb low located near 16N55W and has been moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours.
Moisture has increased in the wave environment, which along with favorable deep layer wind shear and upper level diffluence support heavy showers nd isolated tstms from 13N to 20N between 53W and 58W.
Conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development late this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeastern and central Bahamas.
Quoting 1523. KoritheMan:



I prefer the GFS path to the Euro. I don't buy an immediate recurvature up the spine of Florida. I gave reasons for why earlier, but I'd be happy to repeat them again.


since I'm a "newbie" here, looking for all the info I can get, love all the generous info/knowledge people share. WE moved to Manatee County FL 2 years ago. I was here in Broward County in 1992 for college, I never ever want to see devastation like I saw w/Andrew. Also lived on Long Island for Hurricane Gloria in mid 80s, and was in CT for Superstorm Sandy so I'm no stranger to no power, wind, etc etc. Plus working on commercial fishing boats a good part of my life I think I understand the threat. So, you really don't think this thing can make landfall in lets say West Palm Beach, cross Florida then go right up the coast? If so that would mess a lot up. Or are you thinking cross florida, go out into gulf then hang a right and go back into florida well north of Tampa Bay? I just want this to go out to sea, don't want to see anyone ever get hurt
Quoting 1519. Siker:


I forget, did you say you wouldn't chase a major? Don't know if you have the time / budget / desire for two landfalls, but a stronger 2nd landfall in the Gulf is certainly possible.


I'd chase up to a Category 4, probably.

Money isn't the issue; time is. I'm only off until next Thursday. I took a random 10 day stretch off in anticipation for this.
Quoting 1532. GatorWX:



oh my...
Stewart is a rogue forecaster, lol. Every time he jacks up the percentage the next guy brings it down. The 60/60 idea made no sense to me to begin with (how could the 2 and 5 day odds be the same in a case like this?). Even at 50/60, the 2 day odds are still too high. 60% over 5 days is reasonable however given the uncertainty.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north of the
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 450
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for
development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern
Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas
regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult products
issued by your local meteorological offices for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Looking forward to getting a recon flight with 99L later today. I'm not expecting a tropical depression or anything but it would be nice to have that data in the models, especially with how uncertain the forecast is.
Wow that is a surprise, NHC dropped the odds 10% in 48 hours for 99L.
Quoting 1525. bupsin101:

Dominica seems in for a rough one.. Considering the mountainous terrain of the island, residents should get prepared.
Quoting 1530. sporteguy03:

I just hope that all in the path of 99L just take it seriously the signs are there for trouble and what I am seeing are the models starting to come in agreement on track. Don't make excuses just be prepared.


Indeed, most of the residents- though not under official warning are aware of the approaching system and are making some kind of preparations. We are Preparing for the 'worst' but trusting and hoping for the best outcome...However, a few persons do not have a good 'feel' about this system. Thank God for 6th sense and intuition also. Hopefully, it will not be too much of a powerful system given our recent vulnerabilities... Time will tell. 99L seems to want to give some challenge to the fearsome precedent left by Erika...we Sincerely hope not though. We are not looking forward to any surprise 'punches' from 'Pre Hermine.'

Later today will be quite 'interesting' I'm sure. We pray that we will be able to successfully mitigate whatever may come.

God Bless!
Quoting 1517. MAweatherboy1:

Many unknowns remain for 99L. Going along with some earlier discussion, it's very possible Fiona could be the "X factor" in all this. Last night, it was in fact the ECMWF that took a major step towards the GFS in how it handled Fiona's remains. Instead of showing gradual dissipation out at sea, it tracked the vortex into northeast FL. The 6z GFS was even more bullish with Fiona, and had it going further south and basically consuming 99L before it strengthened slightly in the GOM. If Fiona gets towards Florida or the Bahamas as a well defined vorticity area, I don't think it bodes well for 99L. In other words, weaker Fiona= stronger 99L, and vice versa. There are more factors too, but the Fiona factor, or lack thereof, could be the biggest.


It's definitely gonna be closer than originally thought. The separation of the two systems is decreasing. The latest NHC forecast actually places a 4-day Fiona not far east of the North Carolina coast. That's pretty insane.
Quoting 1536. GatorWX:



It certainly would be bad if it was conservative.


Shhh - no jinxes please ;)
Quoting 1540. Chicklit:


oh my...


HWRF has been consistent over the last several runs showing a significant hurricane off the E Florida coast and Bahamas. It's an outlier, but it has been sticking to its guns while the GFS has flip flopped all over the place.

1548. wpb
two has 99l liitle further east off florida at 8am write.
recon run should help model input.
guess that would b in a the cycle late tonight.
1549. reid221


50 percent through 48 hrs .. 60 percent next 5 days per 8am.
1550. ohzone
Hermine---((((( North Carolina)))))
Quoting 1547. SavannahStorm:



HWRF has been consistent over the last several runs showing a significant hurricane off the E Florida coast and Bahamas. It's an outlier, but it has been sticking to its guns while the GFS has flip flopped all over the place.





nop the GFS is the out liner the HWRF the European model and the UKM model i think its call all be showing a strong hurricane
Quoting 1542. CybrTeddy:

Looking forward to getting a recon flight with 99L later today. I'm not expecting a tropical depression or anything but it would be nice to have that data in the models, especially with how uncertain the forecast is.


I'm expecting to wake up to bad news. Somehow this will go badly for me. It always does. ;)
Quoting 1550. ohzone:

Hermine---((((( North Carolina)))))

What are you getting at?
Gaston is looking good

ok...so this morning...GFS (which I know seems to be the outlier) has Fiona now coming toward the east coast...maybe because it weakened...(weak storms move more west)...at the same speed as 99L...so...do they cancel each other out, absorb each other and become one massive storm (does that mean it will take longer for them to organize and spin up a combo storm)...I seriously don't like this season....someone on FB posted a graphic that the news stations had put out stating that Georgia and SC don't need to worry because our percentage of how often storms hits here is lower than in FL and NC.....COMPLACENCY!!!!!! ugh...I need some excedrin
So if Hermine/99L goes OTS, are we going to give up on forecast models?
Quoting 1552. KoritheMan:



I'm expecting to wake up to bad news. Somehow this will go badly for me. It always does. ;)


I hope it doesn't KM....
Quoting 1551. thetwilightzone:




nop the GFS is the out liner the HWRF the ECW and the UKM model i think its call all be showing a strong hurricane


I was referring to track as well as intensity. The Euro and UK take 99L across Florida into the GOM. The HWRF has it tracking up the East Coast of Florida.

Quoting 1543. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Wow that is a surprise, NHC dropped the odds 10% in 48 hours for 99L.

Not a surprise for me at all.
Quoting 1527. win1gamegiantsplease:



If that high sits a little more north than past runs have suggested (instead of being centered near west-central NC, southwestern VA), it's totally on the table.


The synoptic flow pattern over the US doesn't favor the ridge getting flattened like that. I mean Fiona might play a role, but I don't see any obvious continental entities that would. Short-term deepening is another possibility, which isn't really happening.
Good Morning Folks; certified mid-August Cape Verde storm cluster in progress............We normally don't see this until September....................



Quoting 1557. tiggeriffic:



I hope it doesn't KM....


Doesn't what? Go badly for me? I do, too, but I suspect we're not on the same page since I'm rooting for a chase. I doubt YOU are. :)
Quoting 1509. LargoFl:



99L is refiring some convection as the one from last night wanes once it gets on the other side of the dry air to it's west then we should see more sustained organized thunderstorms.
Quoting 1558. SavannahStorm:



I was referring to track as well as intensity. The Euro and UK take 99L across Florida into the GOM. The HWRF has it tracking up the East Coast of Florida.



oh ok



cant wait for recon flight this AM it will help us find where the ture center is i put it at 15N
And it look likes the Bahamas might be the sweet spot for 99L downstream; a dangerous place for the Bahamas and potentially the US next week if current conditions continue:




Recon sampling the atmosphere is the most important thing right now to help the models better understand the setup now and potentially in the days to come. There are so many factors in play that decides if this is weak or strong.
23/1145 UTC 13.5N 33.3W T4.0/4.0 GASTON -- Atlantic
Quoting 1562. KoritheMan:



Doesn't what? Go badly for me? I do, too, but I suspect we're not on the same page since I'm rooting for a chase. I doubt YOU are. :)


Hubby is an Electrician....when storms hit here....well....you know the deal lol...plus now I have my senior aged aunt and uncle's place to keep up with on top of ours (they winter down here and it is a camper soooooooooo) ... always ready (cept I always go pick up a few extra cases of water JIC) thankfully we have a hi-lo camper that can be completely run off of a 30 amp generator....and it has a/c so we at least wouldn't be miserable sleeping...and it seems this year the water here in Charleston is almost shower temp coming straight from the cold tap....it is nuts...so it would be tolerable...just don't want to see the destruction...people here still have not recovered from the damage from the flood last October
1569. Grothar
i this hop we dont get a recon with any issue
Just got an update from my Emergency Management office (I'm on the EM Response Team). They are leaning toward a stronger ridge, with 99L going into south Florida anywhere from the Keys to north of Miami, then exiting into the Gulf. They give it a 60 percent chance of becoming a TD or TS over the Bahamas.
A few similarities with this one; high over the east coast and a wave/TD that needed better conditions to tap into

Link

Lesser Antilles radar composite
1574. MahFL
Quoting 1567. thetwilightzone:

23/1145 UTC 13.5N 33.3W T4.0/4.0 GASTON -- Atlantic

T4.0? Clearly RI. Around 6 hours ago it was only T2.5. by this rate it should be in 24 hours a 190 mph C5. Amazing!
1576. FOREX
Quoting 1524. muddertracker:

Morning. It's early. 99l had a decent night. Still looks lopsided tho. Coffee!
Visits to Tropical Blog 479,papers graded 4.Papers graded with feedback 0.
1577. wpb
Quoting 1571. flbeachgirl:

Just got an update from my Emergency Management office (I'm on the EM Response Team). They are leaning toward a stronger ridge, with 99L going into south Florida anywhere from the Keys to north of Miami, then exiting into the Gulf. They give it a 60 percent chance of becoming a TD or TS over the Bahamas.
if so why did nhc two box shift east a little away from fla?
Quoting 1560. KoritheMan:



The synoptic flow pattern over the US doesn't favor the ridge getting flattened like that. I mean Fiona might play a role, but I don't see any obvious continental entities that would. Short-term deepening is another possibility, which isn't really happening.


Probably why the HWRF is taking it north, deepest of the main models right now
Quoting 1576. FOREX:

Visits to Tropical Blog 479,papers graded 4.Papers graded with feedback 0.


I was up at 4 revising...lol
Good morning

99L looks to be Caribbean bound this morning. Heading appears to be more W than WNW since last night when I pegged the center closer to 16 than the 16.6 official position at that time. Now it could be slightly below based on satellite imagery but recon will sort that out.

The next 18 hours will be key for what ultimately happens with track as an entry into the Caribbean near 16/17 could have material long range consequences for both track and intensity

1581. Grothar
99L close to TD status.
1582. GatorWX
I'm pretty sure whoever said this was a dead season jinxed us. The Atlantic saw that comment and went "Bwahahahaha!"
1584. FOREX
Quoting 1571. flbeachgirl:

Just got an update from my Emergency Management office (I'm on the EM Response Team). They are leaning toward a stronger ridge, with 99L going into south Florida anywhere from the Keys to north of Miami, then exiting into the Gulf. They give it a 60 percent chance of becoming a TD or TS over the Bahamas.
Ask to speak to the OLD WISE MAN at the office, and ask where in the Gulf does he expect an unwelcomed landfall?
Experimental tropical cyclone genesis product

1586. LargoFl
Quoting 1571. flbeachgirl:

Just got an update from my Emergency Management office (I'm on the EM Response Team). They are leaning toward a stronger ridge, with 99L going into south Florida anywhere from the Keys to north of Miami, then exiting into the Gulf. They give it a 60 percent chance of becoming a TD or TS over the Bahamas.
thanks, let us know if their thinking changes thru this week ok.
Quoting 1577. wpb:

if so why did nhc two box shift east a little away from fla?


Our EM info comes from StormGeo, but I haven't looked yet this morning to see how it compares to NHC. I think until we get Recon data there's just too much uncertainty, so there's going to be differences in interpretation until we have something better to go on.
With all the flooding we have been having in South Louisiana the storm surge of even a weak tropical system heading this way would be too much to handle. The fema trailer's have not even arrived yet. Many still have water in their homes. Let's all pray these storms dissipate!
1589. LargoFl
when do you think we'll hear what the HH's find with 99??
Basin Scale HWRF develops another low rider after 99L



The current moderate to high shear over 99L is preventing it from organizing in the short-term giving that lopsided look.  But convection is good and the lower level  circulation remains vigorous.  It could be one of those storms that ramps up quickly once it clears the shear when it gets to the lower Bahamas.  You can see the shear across it around 20N in this loop.

1592. LargoFl
well I don't see any mention of 99 from the NWS discussions for a florida strike yet,this morning walking my dogs I asked a few neighbors about it..their reply.."what storm"??....
1593. GatorWX
Quoting 1581. Grothar:

99L close to TD status.


Embiggening, is it?
1594. Grothar


Quoting 1591. weathermanwannabe:

The current moderate to high shear over 99L is preventing it from organizing in the short-term giving that lopsided look.  But convection is good and the lower level  circulation remains vigorous.  It could be one of those storms that ramps up quickly once it clears the shear when it gets to the lower Bahamas.  You can see the shear across it around 20N in this loop.




Shear is only affecting the extreme NE quad of the circulation. Other than that there are favorable conditions aloft due to the anticyclone overhead.
1596. FOREX
Quoting 1579. muddertracker:



I was up at 4 revising...lol
I saw what time you signed off the blog last night.lol. You better get some papers graded.Th is blog is about to light up in a couple of days. I'm not an English major,but if I lived closer to you I would help.lol.
1598. FOREX
Quoting 1592. LargoFl:

well I don't see any mention of 99 from the NWS discussions for a florida strike yet,this morning walking my dogs I asked a few neighbors about it..their reply.."what storm"??....
I bet they know the latest on the Rio swimmer dude though.
Quoting 1581. Grothar:

99L close to TD status.


I believe it, convection continues to fire up, recon would be helpful this morning.
Quoting 1554. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Gaston is looking good






Gaston must've ate 4 dozen eggs this morning to help him get strong
AL, 07, 2016082312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 337W, 55, 1002, TS
Quoting 1596. FOREX:

I saw what time you signed off the blog last night.lol. You better get some papers graded.Th is blog is about to light up in a couple of days. I'm not an English major,but if I lived closer to you I would help.lol.

Yeah..and beginning comp students actually turn things in on paper. Madness. A few can draft electronically, but a lot of my students are bi/tri lingual. It's cool, but their grammar is "developing."
I'm going to celebrate. Models are a great tool within 5 days and after initialization. Anything outside that and they are simply "what if" scenarios. Useful "what if" scenarios.

Quoting 1556. Sharkicane:

So if Hermine/99L goes OTS, are we going to give up on forecast models?
Yikes to wake up and see this right over my location in S.W. Florida. Euro strengthens the system as it crosses Florida and moves into the GOM.
Quoting 1581. Grothar:
99L close to TD status.


Yep, good to see Recon scheduled to check it out too!
1606. LargoFl
Quoting 1592. LargoFl:
well I don't see any mention of 99 from the NWS discussions for a florida strike yet,this morning walking my dogs I asked a few neighbors about it..their reply.."what storm"??....


These people are obviously impervious to the weather in general. This was all over TWC this morning with Jim Cantore talking about how this could be a risk for anyone from the Gulf all the way up the East Coast! Had lots of cool graphics with lines drawn pointing right at Florida!
Quoting 1597. GeoffreyWPB:




16.2N, 56.6W
1609. LargoFl
0z Euro keeps it a TS crossing florida,doesnt go to hurricane till just off tampa bay then northward..
1610. LargoFl
Quoting 1607. 69Viking:



These people are obviously impervious to the weather in general. This was all over TWC this morning with Jim Cantore talking about how this could be a risk for anyone from the Gulf all the way up the East Coast! Had lots of cool graphics with lines drawn pointing right at Florida!
I hope folks in florida pay attention and get ready, just in case.
Quoting 1601. thetwilightzone:

AL, 07, 2016082312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 337W, 55, 1002, TS


Quickly strengthening, Gaston likely to be Hurricane in less than 24 hours
Does anyone else get the feeling that all Fiona and 99l are doing is just "plowing the road" for what comes next?
Heading now W for 99L
Quoting 1608. nocanesplease:



16.2N, 56.6W


Yep. Maybe we'll get more clear data later today.
Quoting 1604. Sfloridacat5:

Yikes to wake up and see this right over my location in S.W. Florida. Euro strengthens the system as it crosses Florida and moves into the GOM.



Yikes is right I am going to prepare and get some stuff in order this afternoon in terms of supplies, etc. I'm in Manatee County, but east of 75 so should be ok but wow doesn't look good.
Quoting 1581. Grothar:

99L close to TD status.

What makes you think that. Looks like it has work to do with its low level structure and mid level vort.
1617. LargoFl
one thing I'm worried about..IF the Euro pans out track wise and it moves up the west coast of Florida in the gulf...storm surge could be quite high,and coming Up the gulf side..could push a lot of water into tampa bay itself,im hoping if Euro verifies..it stay off the coast aways..lessening the storm surge for us.
1618. luigi18
Quoting 1595. kmanislander:



Shear is only affecting the extreme NE quad of the circulation. Other than that there are favorable conditions aloft due to the anticyclone overhead.
the shear is making her look like a small rabbit in the last frame.....
1619. FOREX
Quoting 1612. muddertracker:

Does anyone else get the feeling that all Fiona and 99l are doing is just "plowing the road" for what comes next?
I've been thinking that too. Telling my friend the other day that September and October could be ugly.
Quoting 1598. FOREX:

I bet they know the latest on the Rio swimmer dude though.


or who's winning Dancing with the Stars or America's got Talent.

I'm going to buy extra propane etc. Appears to be headed right over my house

Quoting 1595. kmanislander:



Shear is only affecting the extreme NE quad of the circulation. Other than that there are favorable conditions aloft due to the anticyclone overhead.
As usual, you are correct Sir and nice to see you.  It may clear the shear just at the Antilles and here is the vort from lower to mid: great at the surface but very little (almost nothing)  at the mid level.  That will change once it clears the shear and aligns with the anti-cyclone.


Lower:


Mid:
Quoting 1611. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Quickly strengthening, Gaston likely to be Hurricane in less than 24 hours

A report shows 75 mph winds already.
Good morning from St. Thomas

It's already 80, feeling like 83, looking to be another really hot day on the island today.

Our warning this morning:

"... Flash Flood Watch in effect from early Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands

* from early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.

* A strong tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on
Wednesday... increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. All interests should
monitor the progress of the evolution of this weather scenario.

* The potential of flooding rains is high for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches with
locally higher amounts are possible with this strong tropical
wave. Localized flash flooding... landslides and Rockfall in
areas of steep terrain are likely in areas of heavy rainfall. At
this time... the areas more prone to flash flooding are the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico."

So today is usually my day off but decided to switch days so that I'm not on the roads tomorrow.

I bumped the first cam up so that anyone who is interested in looking at more weather than cruise ships will be able to see what is going on on this, the south side of the island. (For your info, on a clear day you would be able to see St. Croix off in the distance.)

Link

Needless to say, many eyes are watching this system. Hoping for a cistern filler and nothing else!

Lindy
1624. LemieT
Quoting 1590. nrtiwlnvragn:

Basin Scale HWRF develops another low rider after 99L






Good morning folks. That is more than a low-rider, that is totalled slammed.
1625. FOREX
Quoting 1609. LargoFl:

0z Euro keeps it a TS crossing florida,doesnt go to hurricane till just off tampa bay then northward..
You think the Euro might be underestimating intensity?
Quoting 1601. thetwilightzone:

AL, 07, 2016082312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 337W, 55, 1002, TS


Gearing up quickly:

Wow, Gaston is quickly strengthening.
30 kt at the first advisory, 35 kt at second, 45 kt at third, and likely 55 kt at fourth. At this rate, Gaston may be a hurricane by 5pm.

By the way, SAB has Gaston at T4.0, indicating a borderline hurricane, and ADT estimates from CIMSS are at T3.4/53 kt.
1628. Grothar
Quoting 1616. Ricki13th:


What makes you think that. Looks like it has work to do with its low structure and mid level vort.



I think recon will find a depression. If they do, this will change things a little. This would indicate that we might be dealing with a much stronger system as it enters the Bahamas late this weekend. With the ridge of high pressure expected over the east central US, this would steer a very strong system into Florida. Since the ridge is expected to extend west, the steering might move the system into the Gulf before turning North as a very strong system.

It is often easy to be mislead by appearance of a system. While it may not be a depression now, it appears it will be shortly.

From the Puerto Rico NWS...

The tropical wave around 400 miles to the east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph. At this translation speed the wave will reach the
Eastern Caribbean Wednesday morning and Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
likely affect the islands. Flooding in low lying areas and small
streams are also likely with this wave. Accordingly to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC), this wave has a tropical cyclone
formation potential of 60 percent through the next 48 hours.
Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.



Link
1630. FOREX
Quoting 1620. Ctwhitechin:



or who's winning Dancing with the Stars or America's got Talent.

I'm going to buy extra propane etc. Appears to be headed right over my house
Great idea to be prepared.I know models could change,but the season is long from over.I live in the Panhandle,so we are watching it closely also.
Quoting 1581. Grothar:

99L close to TD status.
yeap, strong storms near the center, it looks better than fiona
1632. beell
Make that one rejected surface low for Fiona this morning.

clouds are beginning to wrap around what appears to be the centre 0f 98lL near 16.3 N 56W. Winds are about 35 mph and i would not be too surprise that recon finds the system to be TD 8.
Quoting 1622. NunoLava1998:


A report shows 75 mph winds already.


Where did you see that? Not sure it is there yet but will be probably sometime today
Quoting 1627. Bobbyweather:

Wow, Gaston is quickly strengthening.
30 kt at the first advisory, 35 kt at second, 45 kt at third, and likely 55 kt at fourth. At this rate, Gaston may be a hurricane by 5pm.

By the way, SAB has Gaston at T4.0, indicating a borderline hurricane, and ADT estimates from CIMSS are at T3.4/53 kt.


4.0 is a hurricane,
1637. FOREX
Quoting 1633. stoormfury:

clouds are beginning to wrap around what appears to be the centre 0f 98lL near 16.3 N 56W. Winds are about 35 mph and i would not be too surprise that recon finds the system to be TD 8.
there is no 98L there is only a 99L!!! taz
Once 99L gets designated, it is leaning towards being a rather large storm that will impact a very large area.........All folks in the Bahamas and South and Central Florida need to eye and purchase their potential hurricane needs this weekend to avoid last minute rushes and lines next week if you are anywhere within the cone; those ridging issues often produce some last minute adjustments and jogs that can make a 200 mile difference in potential landfall:

 
This is sort of OT; but I need help.

I have lost the IR satellite on the wundermap & the site in general.
I'm in the BVI,so would really like to see what we're in for...all I see on all WU sattelite pages is the visible; fluffy, pretty white clouds.
Anyone know what I can do to access the IR sat?



Quoting 1633. stoormfury:

clouds are beginning to wrap around what appears to be the centre 0f 98lL near 16.3 N 56W. Winds are about 35 mph and i would not be too surprise that recon finds the system to be TD 8.


You mean 99L?
1641. nash36
Looks like the HWRF is going ape-caca with the intensity this morning.
Quoting 1621. weathermanwannabe:


As usual, you are correct Sir and nice to see you. It may clear the shear just at the Antilles and here is the vort from lower to mid: great at the surface but very little (almost nothing) at the mid level. That will change once it clears the shear and aligns with the anti-cyclone.


Lower:


Mid:


Good to see you too. With the motion now W, 99L should have favourable conditions continuing overhead. The next set of model runs may come to the left given the heading change from last night that is being maintained for the time being.
1643. FOREX
Quoting 1636. GeoffreyWPB:




Crazy how one model wants a Cat 5 and the Euro wants a tropical storm crossing Florida then maybe a Hurricane of undetermined strength in the Gulf. Man oh Man.
1645. GatorWX
Quoting 1639. BettinaGH:

This is sort of OT; but I need help.

I have lost the IR satellite on the wundermap & the site in general.
I'm in the BVI,so would really like to see what we're in for...all I see on all WU sattelite pages is the visible; fluffy, pretty white clouds.
Anyone know what I can do to access the IR sat?






Probably already got a reply, but here ya go...

Link
Quoting 1531. JrWeathermanFL:


Hmmm... new clouds near centre ...
Quoting 1561. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; certified mid-August Cape Verde storm cluster in progress............We normally don't see this until September....................




Wouldn't be surprised to see another x on there for the Twave following Gaston ....
Quoting 1573. Saltydogbwi1:

Link

Lesser Antilles radar composite
Thanks, salty .... this will be handy during the next 24 ....
Quoting 1580. kmanislander:

Good morning

99L looks to be Caribbean bound this morning. Heading appears to be more W than WNW since last night when I pegged the center closer to 16 than the 16.6 official position at that time. Now it could be slightly below based on satellite imagery but recon will sort that out.

The next 18 hours will be key for what ultimately happens with track as an entry into the Caribbean near 16/17 could have material long range consequences for both track and intensity


NHC TAFB was putting 99L southwest of PR in their 48 hr forecast, still as a low. That has implications for structure, as well as for how well it avoids potential impediments...
Current westward movement is keeping it out of the worst of the shear, while a crossing near the western end of PR keeps it off the heights of Hispaniola .... while taking it into a low shear environment with plenty of TCHP.
1647. Grothar
The UKMET has 99L approaching very high SST's in the Bahamas.

Yeah, worried about this guy on the east coast. Looking good to be a fish, but nothing set in stone. Hopefully just a wave maker.

We are getting close to a 5 day window for 99L. My thoughts are that it crosses FL Everglades as a Cat 1 and comes out the other side with minimal (if any) weakening. From there I just hope it doesn't get too far out and spend too much time in the Gulf.

I really hope it is OTS, but that would be true wishcasting at this point.

Quoting 1626. CybrTeddy:



Gearing up quickly:


Gaston looks so nice and is thankfully headed OTS! Almost hard to believe a storm this nice looking is in the Atlantic
Quoting 1634. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Where did you see that?

whAT ???
Quoting 1612. muddertracker:

Does anyone else get the feeling that all Fiona and 99l are doing is just "plowing the road" for what comes next?
Ayup. I need 4 eyes right now ....
lol ...
1652. FOREX
Quoting 1641. nash36:

Looks like the HWRF is going ape-caca with the intensity this morning.
You are so funny. I know I've made you angry a couple of times over the years and I apologize for that.
Andrew was a very small and compact storm but this one may not reduce down to that size and looking at the latest models being posted below, all of Florida needs to be on alert with this one. Gonna be a very windy and and rain-soaked period for the Bahamas and all of Florida next week, regardless of intensity issues, it seems in addition to the threat of tornadoes further to the North of the core if it does make a second landfall (assuming passage over the Bahamas) in Florida..............And unfortunately, another dump of dirty water from Lake O into the estuaries after the storm passes.
1654. Loduck
Quoting 1623. LindyVirginIslander:

Good morning from St. Thomas

It's already 80, feeling like 83, looking to be another really hot day on the island today.

Our warning this morning:

"... Flash Flood Watch in effect from early Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands

* from early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.

* A strong tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on
Wednesday... increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. All interests should
monitor the progress of the evolution of this weather scenario.

* The potential of flooding rains is high for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches with
locally higher amounts are possible with this strong tropical
wave. Localized flash flooding... landslides and Rockfall in
areas of steep terrain are likely in areas of heavy rainfall. At
this time... the areas more prone to flash flooding are the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico."

So today is usually my day off but decided to switch days so that I'm not on the roads tomorrow.

I bumped the first cam up so that anyone who is interested in looking at more weather than cruise ships will be able to see what is going on on this, the south side of the island. (For your info, on a clear day you would be able to see St. Croix off in the distance.)

Link

Needless to say, many eyes are watching this system. Hoping for a cistern filler and nothing else!

Lindy
Thanks for the link to the webcam...lookin beautiful right now!
Quoting 1647. Grothar:

The UKMET has 99L approaching very high SST's in the Bahamas.



Gro! do you know what time the hurricane hunter leavers st.croix?
Quoting 1635. TheDawnAwakening:



4.0 is a hurricane,

Yes. I believe T4.0=65 kt...?
Link
Quoting 1623. LindyVirginIslander:

Good morning from St. Thomas

It's already 80, feeling like 83, looking to be another really hot day on the island today.

Our warning this morning:

"... Flash Flood Watch in effect from early Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for all Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands

* from early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night.

* A strong tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on
Wednesday... increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. All interests should
monitor the progress of the evolution of this weather scenario.

* The potential of flooding rains is high for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches with
locally higher amounts are possible with this strong tropical
wave. Localized flash flooding... landslides and Rockfall in
areas of steep terrain are likely in areas of heavy rainfall. At
this time... the areas more prone to flash flooding are the U.S.
Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico."

So today is usually my day off but decided to switch days so that I'm not on the roads tomorrow.

I bumped the first cam up so that anyone who is interested in looking at more weather than cruise ships will be able to see what is going on on this, the south side of the island. (For your info, on a clear day you would be able to see St. Croix off in the distance.)

Link

Needless to say, many eyes are watching this system. Hoping for a cistern filler and nothing else!

Lindy
Hey, Lindy, was hoping to hear from you.... Looks like the rain is coming .... hope you don't get too much wind.

Looks fairly overcast to the SE already ...
Personally I believe it will take a more westerly angle across south FL and end up further over the GOM before turning NW. I think the models are underestimating the ridge. Lots of variables though. Could be a stronger storm on initial FL landfall. Ridge could be weaker or not nose as far west. By Thursday the picture should be more clear as the models get fed more actual data.

Quoting 1644. GeoffreyWPB:


1659. Loduck
Quoting 1653. weathermanwannabe:

Andrew was a very small and compact storm but this one may not reduce down to that size and looking at the latest models being posted below, all of Florida needs to be on alert with this one. Gonna be a very windy and and rain-soaked period for the Bahamas and all of Florida next week, regardless of intensity issues, it seems in addition to the threat of tornadoes further to the North of the core if it does make a second landfall (assuming passage over the Bahamas)..............And unfortunately, another dump of dirty water from Lake O into the estuaries after the storm passes.
In NE Fl we're hopin that this storm doesn't get too strong but we really, really need some good soaking rain! < 3 inches since June :(
Alright, I need your opinions! My hubby lives up in Indianapolis. Should he fly home this weekend? I live in palm Beach County. I would need someone to put up shutters. My worry is this thing is going to RI in the Bahamas. What if it cat 2 or 3 ends up being off of the coast?
Looks like some of the are trending a little north then curve back towards the coast of Florida and bypassing the Bahamas. This is getting tricky.
99L taking advantage of the increasing TCHP along its path

Quoting 1634. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Where did you see that?


His private drone told him.
Corrected-models.
Quoting 1661. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like some of the are trending a little north then curve back towards the coast of Florida and bypassing the Bahamas. This is getting tricky.
Anyone know what time recon takes off for 99L?
Quoting 1660. SecretStormNerd:

Alright, I need your opinions! My hubby lives up in Indianapolis. Should he fly home this weekend? I live in palm Beach County. I would need someone to put up shutters. My worry is this thing is going to RI in the Bahamas. What if it cat 2 or 3 ends up being off of the coast?


You should fly there, not the other way around if this forms lol
Quoting 1629. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Puerto Rico NWS...

The tropical wave around 400 miles to the east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph. At this translation speed the wave will reach the
Eastern Caribbean Wednesday morning and Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
likely affect the islands. Flooding in low lying areas and small
streams are also likely with this wave. Accordingly to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC), this wave has a tropical cyclone
formation potential of 60 percent through the next 48 hours.
Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.



Link
I like the format of this advisory. Something like this for non-named systems would be quite useful.
Quoting 1638. weathermanwannabe:

Once 99L gets designated, it is leaning towards being a rather large storm that will impact a very large area.........All folks in the Bahamas and South and Central Florida need to eye and purchase their potential hurricane needs this weekend to avoid last minute rushes and lines next week if you are anywhere within the cone; those ridging issues often produce some last minute adjustments and jogs that can make a 200 mile difference in potential landfall:

 
Unless this slows considerably, 99L in whatever form will likely be impacting some part of the Bahamas / TCI by Friday.

Potential / Projected 99L timeline:
Tonight: Leeward Antilles
Tomorrow: Virgin Islands
Thursday morning: Puerto Rico
Thursday evening: Hispaniola
Friday evening: TCI / SE Bahamas
NOTE: not an official forecast!
Quoting 1660. SecretStormNerd:

Alright, I need your opinions! My hubby lives up in Indianapolis. Should he fly home this weekend? I live in palm Beach County. I would need someone to put up shutters. My worry is this thing is going to RI in the Bahamas. What if it cat 2 or 3 ends up being off of the coast?


My opinion is that you should learn to put up hurricane shutters. Anything he can do, you can also learn to do if you have the right tools, information and perhaps an extra hand. Don't fly him across country just to use a drill. That being said, he's your partner in life, and it's understandable that you want him by your side when facing an unnerving challenge like a hurricane.
On the other hand, depending on your personal situation and responsibilities, if you can batten down your own hatches and leave your interests comfortably, maybe you could visit Indianapolis?
1669. wpb
Quoting 1647. Grothar:

The UKMET has 99L approaching very high SST's in the Bahamas.


keep posting further runs thanks
Quoting 1639. BettinaGH:

This is sort of OT; but I need help.

I have lost the IR satellite on the wundermap & the site in general.
I'm in the BVI,so would really like to see what we're in for...all I see on all WU sattelite pages is the visible; fluffy, pretty white clouds.
Anyone know what I can do to access the IR sat?




Hi Bettina.... dunno what happened .... maybe you have the Satellite button / setting turned off?
1671. Grothar
Quoting 1655. TheDeathStar:


Gro! do you know what time the hurricane hunter leavers st.croix?


Here is the schedule

Link
1672. wpb
Quoting 1665. RockinghamRob:

Anyone know what time recon takes off for 99L?
there flying now
1673. nash36
Quoting 1652. FOREX:

You are so funny. I know I've made you angry a couple of times over the years and I apologize for that.


Eh, no worries. All is good.

This is a very tricky system to pin down. It's an either/or situation. It's either going to tease, but never get over the hump; or, it's going to make everyone swallow hard.
Recon is wheels up
Quoting 1668. mojofearless:



My opinion is that you should learn to put up hurricane shutters. Anything he can do, you can also learn to do if you have the right tools, information and perhaps an extra hand. Don't fly him across country just to use a drill. That being said, he's your partner in life, and it's understandable that you want him by your side when facing an unnerving challenge like a hurricane. So sure, have him come home if you want, but go on and start doing the needful things before he even gets here.

I have a two story house with heavy metal shutters. I also have 4 kids ten and under so I think it's ok if I am a little nervous. I think no matter what I say he will come home anyway. I've also been through many storms. Just never with kids. I think it's more so we just are trying to figure out if it's going be to be worth flying home a week early to deal with.
Quoting 1657. BahaHurican:

Hey, Lindy, was hoping to hear from you.... Looks like the rain is coming .... hope you don't get too much wind.

Looks fairly overcast to the SE already ...


Hiya, Baha!

I'm feeling you'll see a lot more of me in the next 48 hours! I wouldn't say I'm obsessing over weather at the moment but getting close! ;-{
Quoting 1658. HaoleboySurfEC:

Personally I believe it will take a more westerly angle across south FL and end up further over the GOM before turning NW. I think the models are underestimating the ridge. Lots of variables though. Could be a stronger storm on initial FL landfall. Ridge could be weaker or not nose as far west. By Thursday the picture should be more clear as the models get fed more actual data.


If you are going by the GFS model, it is definitely underestimating the ridge. The GFS model is garbage, and needs a total overhaul from the ground up.
1678. fmbill

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221411
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 22 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 23/1500Z A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 23/1300Z C. 23/2200Z
D. 16.0N 56.5W D. 16.5N 59.0W
E. 23/1445Z TO 23/1800Z E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72
A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 24/1030Z
D. 17.5N 62.0W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
Quoting 1675. SecretStormNerd:


I have a two story house with heavy metal shutters. I also have 4 kids ten and under so I think it's ok if I am a little nervous. I think no matter what I say he will come home anyway.


If you have 4 kids under ten, you have no business being there if its a cat 2 or higher making landfall. Get out, go on a vacation to Indianapolis.
AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 13:29 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 17.57°N 63.93°W
Bearing: 90° at 229 kt
Altitude: 5940 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 18 kt at 75°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A
Last time we were down in FL we made sure our home was hurricane ready with all the supplies we needed.We got in contact with one of our neighbors who is thankfully a native of the state so they have been through hurricanes before.This sucks being first time home owners in the state with a potential threat like what the Euro is showing looming around.99L please go else where.
1682. Ed22
Quoting 1627. Bobbyweather:

Wow, Gaston is quickly strengthening.
30 kt at the first advisory, 35 kt at second, 45 kt at third, and likely 55 kt at fourth. At this rate, Gaston may be a hurricane by 5pm.

By the way, SAB has Gaston at T4.0, indicating a borderline hurricane, and ADT estimates from CIMSS are at T3.4/53 kt.
Could be the third hurricane by this evening.
Quoting 1678. fmbill:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 221411
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 22 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 23/1500Z A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 23/1300Z C. 23/2200Z
D. 16.0N 56.5W D. 16.5N 59.0W
E. 23/1445Z TO 23/1800Z E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72
A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE
C. 24/1030Z
D. 17.5N 62.0W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
They are currently en route,
1684. IKE
Quoting 1674. VAbeachhurricanes:

Recon is wheels up

It's needed from what 99L looks like this morning and I think it looks to be moving west. Should be in the islands tonight/tomorrow.
Finally the Hurricane hunters are flying into a disturbance that appears to be organizing instead of organizing when they are done with the mission. lol
Per Kelly Cass The Weather Channel, Hurricane Hunter Aircraft just departed from Puerto Rico around 10 minutes ago
Quoting 1644. GeoffreyWPB:


Pretty much FL and the Bahamas are screwed, per this ....
:o(
I'm out for a while, with hopes I can look in during/after HHers flight. I'm mighty interested in what they find ....
vis. vis. almost as if a light switch turned on and 99 got serious
Quoting 1675. SecretStormNerd:


I have a two story house with heavy metal shutters. I also have 4 kids ten and under so I think it's ok if I am a little nervous. I think no matter what I say he will come home anyway. Of course I will handle everything else.


Looks like you answered your question on your own.


East
NHC ready with a track for 99L if recon finds a depression

LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI

Along that track shear is low towards the end, and heat content is high

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 15 18 12 15 2 7 6 4 4 4

HEAT CONTENT 32 56 63 44 50 84 49 60 80 54 55 84 105

Link
1694. FOREX
Quoting 1679. VAbeachhurricanes:



If you have 4 kids under ten, you have no business being there if its a cat 2 or higher making landfall. Get out, go on a vacation to Indianapolis.
Great advice.Could be a dangerous n deadly situation the way it is starting to organize now n headed into "good" conditions. Don't get caught off guard by a storm that is not in the headlines now.
Quoting 1679. VAbeachhurricanes:



If you have 4 kids under ten, you have no business being there if its a cat 2 or higher making landfall. Get out, go on a vacation to Indianapolis.

5 year old town home. We are sealed shut! You are right, though. Something to think about.
1696. FOREX
Quoting 1689. islander101010:

vis. vis. almost as if a light switch turned on and 99 got serious
Yep. Overnight should be interesting.
1697. fmbill
HWRF 06z
116kt on the 28th???? Gad!!!!



Quoting 1694. FOREX:

Great advice.Could be a dangerous n deadly situation the way it is starting to organize now n headed into "good" conditions. Don't get caught off guard by a storm that is not in the headlines now.

I live on this blog during the season. I love everything everyone contributes. I have learned a lot over the years! Keeping everyone I know updated.
99L appears to be organizing this morning.

Still has a decoupled center, but its making baby steps.

Quoting 1692. nrtiwlnvragn:

NHC ready with a track for 99L if recon finds a depression

LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI

Along that track shear is low towards the end, and heat content is high

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 15 18 12 15 2 7 6 4 4 4

HEAT CONTENT 32 56 63 44 50 84 49 60 80 54 55 84 105

Link


Those shear and THCP numbers at the end are just stupid.
1701. IKE
Quoting 1697. fmbill:

HWRF 06z
116kt on the 28th???? Gad!!!!





Looks like it's starting to curve back at the end of the run.
1702. FOREX
Quoting 1695. SecretStormNerd:


5 year old town home. We are sealed shut! You are right, though. Something to think about.
Keep in mind that if, yes if, the intensifies rapidly,your roof could be blown off by the Hurricane winds or Tornado winds.Don't forget that tornados will accompany this storm.
-1,000,000

Quoting 1690. CCSoFLA79:



Looks like you answered your question on your own. So why ask for advice.
1705. barbamz
Quoting 1672. wpb:

there flying now

Ideed, they do. Time is in UTC.

Links for newbies:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/


or

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin =al&mapping=cesium
Quoting 1643. FOREX:

Crazy how one model wants a Cat 5 and the Euro wants a tropical storm crossing Florida then maybe a Hurricane of undetermined strength in the Gulf. Man oh Man.


Gotta say, unlike the GFS and some other models, the HWRF has been consistent. Take a look at the last 6 runs.
Pronunciation of Hermine
Pronunciation: the german pronounciation
Her-Mi-ne
Her: like the German word: Herr
and then Mie: like the emglish word "me"
and then Ne: like: ne

"Hurricane Hermine", "Hurricane Hermean" kind of has that memorable tone. We could be hearing this "Hurricane Hermine" many times in the coming days.
To my extremely untrained eye, it sure seems like it's heading W and not WNW. But we shall know for sure very soon.....
Quoting 1701. IKE:


Looks like it's starting to curve back at the end of the run.


Yea, definitely looks like it wants to follow the weakness OTS but the intensity is (IMO) way overdone. 99L would be lucky to be a TS in 120 hours.
NSFW

12z will apparently be stronger when it comes in since the raw text has it reaching solid C4 status

Happy days on the blog, things are looking up. Does this set up look like 2005? With the Bermuda high in place?
1712. FOREX
Quoting 1698. SecretStormNerd:


I live on this blog during the season. I love everything everyone contributes. I have learned a lot over the years! Keeping everyone I know updated.
Oh I know who you are. I've spoken with you several times. I hope you didn't take me the wrong way,just worried about you.I've never been in a Hurricane and am very scared since I live in the Panhandle and have been lucky in the 8 years I've been here.
LOL, HWRF needs to calm down.

Quoting 1704. mojofearless:



Sweet baby Jesus, then you should definitely leave. Forget surviving the hurricane! You're gonna want to kill those kids during the aftermath when they've whined for three straight days about the sweltering heat, lack of power and general boredom.

Lol that's one of issues!
Am I seeing the models correctly? 99L could be possible treat to central Gulf next week? But only at tropical storm strength right?
1716. FOREX
Quoting 1709. CybrTeddy:



Yea, definitely looks like it wants to follow the weakness OTS but the intensity is (IMO) way overdone. 99L would be lucky to be a TS in 120 hours.
I don't know about that.But you could be right.
Call hubby. You guys need to set a time by which you are going to make a decision. Let's say Wednesday night 10PM. In the meantime gather as much info as possible on the storm, flights, flight cost, can you hire someone to do the shutters, etc. Have call 10PM Wednesday night. Make decision based on available intel. Live with decision. Have a Plan B to get out of Dodge if the kaka really hits the fan. Be ready to go. Be gassed up. Have supplies already packed. Have a destination already picked out. Try to get out before everyone else to avoid gridlock. Good luck.

Quoting 1660. SecretStormNerd:

Alright, I need your opinions! My hubby lives up in Indianapolis. Should he fly home this weekend? I live in palm Beach County. I would need someone to put up shutters. My worry is this thing is going to RI in the Bahamas. What if it cat 2 or 3 ends up being off of the coast?
Quoting 1707. frank727:

Pronunciation of Hermine
Pronunciation: the german pronounciation
Her-Mi-ne
Her: like the German word: Herr
and then Mie: like the emglish word "me"
and then Ne: like: ne

"Hurricane Hermine", "Hurricane Hermean" kind of has that memorable tone. We could be hearing this "Hurricane Hermine" many times in the coming days.



NHC Pronunciations

Hermine her-MEEN
Quoting 1675. SecretStormNerd:


I have a two story house with heavy metal shutters. I also have 4 kids ten and under so I think it's ok if I am a little nervous. I think no matter what I say he will come home anyway. Of course I will handle everything else.
On a serious note: You can learn to do this. Even with heavy metal shutters, there are ways and means for it to get done. I'm not saying your husband shouldn't come home. I'm saying when he does, let him show you how the shutters go up. Also, arrange a backup person to deal with the second floor if you really can't lift them.

All I'm saying is, in real life, crazy things can happen. If you have four kids to protect, you have to prepare for worst case scenarios.

Here's hoping you don't actually need the shutters [or me either, for that matter].
Quoting 1676. LindyVirginIslander:



Hiya, Baha!

I'm feeling you'll see a lot more of me in the next 48 hours! I wouldn't say I'm obsessing over weather at the moment but getting close! ;-{
I freely admit I'm obsessing .... :o)
Quoting 1681. washingtonian115:

Last time we were down in FL we made sure our home was hurricane ready with all the supplies we needed.We got in contact with one of our neighbors who is thankfully a native of the state so they have been through hurricanes before.This sucks being first time home owners in the state with a potential threat like what the Euro is showing looming around.99L please go else where.
Like the forward planning. Unfortunately not everyone is this proactive.
Quoting 1686. SaladTosser:

Per Kelly Cass The Weather Channel, Hurricane Hunter Aircraft just departed from Puerto Rico around 10 minutes ago
Hmm.... not in St Croix, I note....
1720. IKE
Quoting 1709. CybrTeddy:



Yea, definitely looks like it wants to follow the weakness OTS but the intensity is (IMO) way overdone. 99L would be lucky to be a TS in 120 hours.


I meant it was curving back some to the west at the end of the run:(
Quoting 1710. Stormchaser2007:

NSFW

12z will apparently be stronger when it comes in since the raw text has it reaching solid C4 status




I mean if shear is under 5 knts and SST's are like 85-88....
Quoting 1693. Climate175:




Right around 15N looks interesting, nice curvature developing
Quoting 1719. BahaHurican:

On a serious note: You can learn to do this. Even with heavy metal shutters, there are ways and means for it to get done. I'm not saying your husband shouldn't come home. I'm saying when he does, let him show you how the shutters go up. Also, arrange a backup person to deal with the second floor if you really can't lift them.

All I'm saying is, in real life, crazy things can happen. If you have four kids to protect, you have to prepare for worst case scenarios.

Here's hoping you don't actually need the shutters [or me either, for that matter].
I freely admit I'm obsessing .... :o)
Like the forward planning. Unfortunately not everyone is this proactive.
Hmm.... not in St Croix, I note....


HH definitely took off from St. Croix
Quoting 1721. VAbeachhurricanes:



I mean if shear is under 5 knts and shear will be like 85-88....


Water round here has been in the mid 80s since July....not sure what the SSTs will be when it gets closer...but the water temps are outrageous
I mean, 99L will definitely have the potential to rapidly intensify in the Bahamas if it can enter the region with a decent structure. Major hurricane seems like a stretch, but don't doubt the power of exceptional conditions aloft coupled with warm surface temps below.
Quoting 1715. lurkersince2008:

Am I seeing the models correctly? 99L could be possible treat to central Gulf next week? But only at tropical storm strength right?


I would say at this point, everyone on the Gulf Coast needs to watch this carefully. The proposed set-up right now is not a good one for anyone from the East coast of Fl to the Gulf Coast. Recon will have some good data shortly....
Quoting 1717. HaoleboySurfEC:

Call hubby. You guys need to set a time by which you are going to make a decision. Let's say Wednesday night 10PM. In the meantime gather as much info as possible on the storm, flights, flight cost, can you hire someone to do the shutters, etc. Have call 10PM Wednesday night. Make decision based on available intel. Live with decision. Have a Plan B to get out of Dodge if the kaka really hits the fan. Be ready to go. Be gassed up. Have supplies already packed. Have a destination already picked out. Try to get out before everyone else to avoid gridlock. Good luck.




I have my plan here in SE TX....let all the non locals panic and run for the hills. While I calmly ride it out. Locals aren't leaving anymore, been around the block long enough to know how it works.
1728. FOREX
Quoting 1721. VAbeachhurricanes:



I mean if shear is under 5 knts and SST's are like 85-88....
Way out in time, but here in Panama City Beach our water temp was 89 this morning.It had dipped down to 83 when the low that battered Louisiana came through here,but it jumped back up since.
99L is developing a good moisture field, dry air backing off a little and should allow more organization.
RECON is up let really see what 99L is doing
1731. A4Guy
Looking at current model plots...looks like a more northerly component expected and more of a Central FL event. What is the Euro showing?
Oh, and call Rick Grimes.

Quoting 1717. HaoleboySurfEC:

Call hubby. You guys need to set a time by which you are going to make a decision. Let's say Wednesday night 10PM. In the meantime gather as much info as possible on the storm, flights, flight cost, can you hire someone to do the shutters, etc. Have call 10PM Wednesday night. Make decision based on available intel. Live with decision. Have a Plan B to get out of Dodge if the kaka really hits the fan. Be ready to go. Be gassed up. Have supplies already packed. Have a destination already picked out. Try to get out before everyone else to avoid gridlock. Good luck.


Quoting 1727. RitaEvac:



I have my plan here in SE TX....let all the non locals panic and run for the hills. While I calmly ride it out. Locals aren't leaving anymore, been around the block long enough to know how it works.


Unless you live in a flood prone area (storm surge affected) then it is recommended that you stay in place and not evacuate.
Too many people evacuate when they don't need to. That causes more problems than needed.
1735. fmbill
It's starting to get that "look"

You do what you have to do to protect your property and family but you have to plan ahead. In my case, the only close family I have left in Miami are my elderly parents in the home they bought in Miami Shores (where I grew up) in 1966. If a big storm is headed towards them next week, I go down, secure their home, and bring them up to North Florida for the duration of the event. With the recent heat in South Florida, I don't need elderly parents in a hot house with no power for 8-10 days which was the case after Andrew even though they were well North of ground zero.

I shudder to think what it will be like in South Florida if a significant storm does threaten them this year with a few million more people down there than when Andrew hit in 92.
Quoting 1690. CCSoFLA79:



Looks like you answered your question on your own.

Being paranoid and asking my fellow weather enthusiasts what they would do. They have a lot more expirience and knowledge than myself.
Quoting 1720. IKE:



I meant it was curving back some to the west at the end of the run:(


Ah, gotcha. I'm at work right now and really can't view the run.
Quoting 1681. washingtonian115:

Last time we were down in FL we made sure our home was hurricane ready with all the supplies we needed.We got in contact with one of our neighbors who is thankfully a native of the state so they have been through hurricanes before.This sucks being first time home owners in the state with a potential threat like what the Euro is showing looming around.99L please go else where.


I am a old timer and have been through many storms in Florida and the Gulf coast. When I see a possible scenario like with 99L I still get flashbacks and remember those sleepless nights just waiting. All I can say is until you experience a Hurricane you will never know. By the way I no longer live in Florida or anywhere near the coast.
Quoting 1717. HaoleboySurfEC:

Call hubby. You guys need to set a time by which you are going to make a decision. Let's say Wednesday night 10PM. In the meantime gather as much info as possible on the storm, flights, flight cost, can you hire someone to do the shutters, etc. Have call 10PM Wednesday night. Make decision based on available intel. Live with decision. Have a Plan B to get out of Dodge if the kaka really hits the fan. Be ready to go. Be gassed up. Have supplies already packed. Have a destination already picked out. Try to get out before everyone else to avoid gridlock. Good luck.




You can hire someone to do the shutters, but speaking from experience they may not necessarily be reliable especially if the storm forms close to shore and intensifies rapidly. It simply would be a factor of time, and where you would be on the list.
1741. Thrawst
Quoting 1713. MiamiHurricanes09:

LOL, HWRF needs to calm down.




That's a lot of MPH! Lol.
1742. fmbill
Dry air retreating nicely.

Sorry with the double post but here is good sub: nice looking storm. Recon might find very high gusts but no closed circulation yet:



Quoting 1718. nrtiwlnvragn:




NHC Pronunciations

Hermine her-MEEN
Prefer the other version.
Her-mee-nee.
But this is a French speaking contribution, I assume, so I guess it would come out like ermine .... you know, the fur pelt animal .... [mink?].



Where is the HH flying out of.....I have the link to the NASA site and one is up from looks like Shreveport....
Native Floridian here and I've been through my fair share of storms, near misses and turned at the last seconds, so I realize we are still way out and there is a huge margin of error as far as any potential landfall but I am just trying to get an idea of the timing of any potential weather impacts from 99L to SE Florida? I leave Thursday afternoon to fly to New Orleans and my flight gets back to PBI (hopefully) on Sunday at 5pm. I am wondering if I should try to move my return flight up to Saturday night.
so if this does go across dade/broward county into collier county then out into Gulf of Mexico, then what. A sharp turn to the north, up the west coast, an 2nd land fall north of tampa then across state again back into Atlantic? Or up into TX/LA/AL area? I'm not liking this at all.
1748. Ed22
Quoting 1722. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Right around 15N looks interesting, nice curvature developing
It not definitive right now where the centre but could become more significant throughout the day.
Quoting 1728. FOREX:

Way out in time, but here in Panama City Beach our water temp was 89 this morning.It had dipped down to 83 when the low that battered Louisiana came through here,but it jumped back up since.

I live just north of Panama City.....for the last few weeks we have gotten tons of rain...we don't need anything tropical coming this way!
Not crazy about those latest tracks for 99L
But still its a threat to be a threat.......still preseason.
Quoting 1737. SecretStormNerd:


Being paranoid and asking my fellow weather enthusiasts what they would do. They have a lot more expirience and knowledge than myself.


Best would be advice you received before. Call your partner and decide what and when you will do something, regardless of what the forecast may be. Unfortunately, it is still a flip of the coin about what may potentially happen.
Intensity is the trickiest thing to forecast, and although everyone is focusing on the HWRF - at this time frame it typically overestimates what the intensity of a storm will be.
Lets not get too ahead of ourselves here. Yes, 99L is organizing more and could be a TD sooner, but then there is also Haiti, the Hurricane killer. Remember, Erika was supposed to move north of the islands as well, but was too weak and stayed just south of them and crashed into Haiti. Next 24 hours are crucial.
1753. Drakoen
ECMWF getting consistent with the track of 99L. As far as intensity is concerned, neglecting the GFS model, conditions appear conducive for a hurricane to form in the Bahamas should 99L organize its circulation and convection.
Quoting 1745. tiggeriffic:

Where is the HH flying out of.....I have the link to the NASA site and one is up from looks like Shreveport....
I believe they flew out of St. Croix
Quoting 1747. Ctwhitechin:

so if this does go across dade/broward county into collier county then out into Gulf of Mexico, then what. A sharp turn to the north, up the west coast, an 2nd land fall north of tampa then across state again back into Atlantic? Or up into TX/LA/AL area? I'm not liking this at all.


Way too early to get an exact path.....accept as a fantasy. It could also fall apart.
HH just passed over Antigua. Getting closer....
Quoting 1724. tiggeriffic:



Water round here has been in the mid 80s since July....not sure what the SSTs will be when it gets closer...but the water temps are outrageous


Yup, they've been hovering around 87-88F here since June. The heat potential in the GulfStream has to be off the charts.

Quoting 1744. BahaHurican:
Prefer the other version.
Her-mee-nee.
But this is a French speaking contribution, I assume, so I guess it would come out like ermine .... you know, the fur pelt animal .... [mink?].
Indeed it is.(Mustela erminea)
Quoting 1745. tiggeriffic:

Where is the HH flying out of.....I have the link to the NASA site and one is up from looks like Shreveport....


PR
And what is the HWRF doing with Fiona in this run? Looks like possible dual landfalls - has that ever happened? (of course I realize this is only one possibility of many)
Link to HWRF model
HH has dropped to 1,000 feet, lets see what we learn.


Time: 14:09:00Z
Coordinates: 17.017N 61.017W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 317 m (1,040 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.7 mb (29.91 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 338° at 11 kts (From the NNW at 12.7 mph)
Air Temp: 24.5°C (76.1°F)
Dew Pt: 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 11 kts (12.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 kts (15.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr
I saw that some forecast models show Fiona and 99L/Hermine meeting up in the Caribbean and having a showdown. If this were to happen would Fiona be absorbed into Hermine's circulation, would they do the fujiwhara effect and meander around each other, or would she simply weaken Hermine?
Quoting 1722. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Right around 15N looks interesting, nice curvature developing
Talk about a nicely developing storm.
1764. 62901IL


Does Fiona even have a closed circulation?
Once/if 99L becomes a depression, the models would be more reliable even then the tracks go through a few changes before we are able to see consistency.
Yeah, agree 100%. Went through that with a multitude of roofers. "I'll be there 8 AM." She may have a good friend that can do it.

Quoting 1740. daddyjames:



You can hire someone to do the shutters, but speaking from experience they may not necessarily be reliable especially if the storm forms close to shore and intensifies rapidly. It simply would be a factor of time, and where you would be on the list.

The buoy on Barbados has light winds out of the N-NE but indicative of the broad surface circulation:

NOS
Location: 17.591N 61.821W
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 13:48:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (30°) at 5.1 kt gusting to 9.9 kt

Quoting 1760. carolinabelle:

And what is the HWRF doing with Fiona in this run? Looks like possible dual landfalls - has that ever happened? (of course I realize this is only one possibility of many)
Link to HWRF model


Fiona is a thorn
Quoting 1616. Ricki13th:


What makes you think that. Looks like it has work to do with its low level structure and mid level vort.


Don't question the master......
1770. wpb
flying at 1000 feet should be gathering good model figures.
And for that she is headed right up the Cape Fear River (and she'd probably fit).

Quoting 1768. win1gamegiantsplease:



Fiona is a thorn
1772. FOREX
Quoting 1769. SELAliveforthetropic:



Don't question the master......
LOL, that's the first thing that came to my mind. I was like, "what?????"
Quoting 1766. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yeah, agree 100%. Went through that with a multitude of roofers. "I'll be there 8 AM." She may have a good friend that can do it.




At this point in time, I could imagine that you very well could be on the bottom of the list. That would have to be a very good friend to do a 2-story house with heavy metal shutters. Would require a 2-person team I imagine.
Quoting 1764. 62901IL:



Does Fiona even have a closed circulation?

It seems so, according to earth.nullschool.net
But it certainly needs more convection to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 1710. Stormchaser2007:

NSFW

12z will apparently be stronger when it comes in since the raw text has it reaching solid C4 status




Been a while since anything like that headed towards the US. Joaquin didn't get that look until it was evident it was eastward bound.
Quoting 1764. 62901IL:



Does Fiona even have a closed circulation?


Fiona looks like a good day at the park to fly a kite.
1777. 62901IL
Quoting 1774. Bobbyweather:


It seems so, according to earth.nullschool.net

Satellite says no.



Nullschool says yes. Which to trust?
Updated (8:00 am est) mid-level vort chart.............Still nothing working up from the surface yet:




1779. ricderr
Just a note, we've been having La Nina conditions for over two months now and as some has said, it's about a two month lag time between the start of a Nino/Nina event and the effects. Could this bold for a second half active season. It would appear that was at the moment...........


Link

Still very elongated, and the center may be further south than we think
Quoting 1771. HaoleboySurfEC:

And for that she is headed right up the Cape Fear River (and she'd probably fit).




Honestly, I'd laugh if it strengthened and hit me. I've been calling her names lately, taunting her. Princess being the usual title, maybe she pays Princess Street a visit lol
Quoting 1778. weathermanwannabe:

Updated (8:00 am est) mid-level vort chart.............Still nothing working up from the surface yet:







99L remains a very shallow storm
Quoting 1778. weathermanwannabe:
Updated (8:00 am est) mid-level vort chart.............Still nothing working up from the surface yet:






Looks like an old chart, 99L is much closer to the islands based on satellite data!


Gorgeous, this thing is going to be a real beauty.
1785. ricderr
another spaghetti model........if i had to venture a reasonable guess I would think the treasure Coast is in for another....however...i always say trust the XTRAP model...it's always right at inception.......


Quoting 110. rmbjoe1954:

Current solutions for GFDL,Navgem, HWRF, and CMC all show 99L over or near Florida by Saturday. Hmmmm.


ECMWF shows 99L over Florida on Monday.
Quoting 1780. Articuno:

Link

Still very elongated, and the center may be further south than we think


That analysis is completely based on the GFS 00 hour
Quoting 1785. ricderr:

another spaghetti model........if i had to venture a reasonable guess I would think the treasure Coast is in for another....however...i always say trust the XTRAP model...it's always right at inception.......





Hi Ric-
I guess that's why we are known as the Treasure Coast.

I am sure the models will shift again..and again...and again....
Quoting 1783. 69Viking:



Looks like an old chart, 99L is much closer to the islands based on satellite data!


That other one to the right is Gaston. 99L is not even showing up at that height.
1790. Grothar
Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.

1791. ricderr
Quoting 1788. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Ric-
I guess that's why we are known as the Treasure Coast.

I am sure the models will shift again..and again...and again....



Aye they will......however most really don't do much with 99L as I was checking out FSU's site
Quoting 1777. 62901IL:


Satellite says no.



Nullschool says yes. Which to trust?

.. Edit:NHC issued last advisory.
S. Florida is trying to get this Zika situation under control before we have a full scale outbreak. A hurricane would be the last thing we need at this moment.
Quoting 1787. Stormchaser2007:



That analysis is completely based on the GFS 00 hour


Did not know that, thanks
99L is developing a CU field that is moving from NW to SE on the western side of the circulation center, this is indicative that there is a surface circulation present, but it hasn't grown upwards to 500mb yet.
Quoting 1790. Grothar:

Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.




We'll technically you just did.
So if the pattern holds up we could expect to see a new blog any time now.
Quoting 1790. Grothar:

Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.




They are at your bidding? Man, I knew you had sway, but that is pretty impressive! (Wait, does this mean you ARE DOC AND MR. HENSEN?!).
What do you mean Gro?
ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 160823120000
2016082312
16.2 303.4
20.4 298.7
100
16.0 305.0
231400
1608231400
1
WTNT21 KNGU 231400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHING 100NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 56.5W TO 20.2N 61.3W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 348NM EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE FORMING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KT IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241400Z.
BT
#0001
NNNN9916081718 125N 194W 20
9916081800 121N 211W 20
9916081806 117N 227W 20
9916081812 113N 242W 20
9916081818 110N 256W 25
9916081900 107N 271W 25
9916081906 105N 291W 25
9916081912 105N 308W 25
9916081918 106N 324W 25
9916082000 109N 337W 25
9916082006 112N 350W 25
9916082012 115N 364W 25
9916082018 120N 380W 25
9916082100 126N 396W 25
9916082106 131N 414W 25
9916082112 136N 431W 20
9916082118 140N 446W 20
9916082200 143N 462W 20
9916082206 148N 480W 20
9916082212 152N 499W 25
9916082218 155N 518W 25
9916082300 159N 535W 25
9916082306 162N 552W 30
9916082312 164N 565W 30
1800. FOREX
99L is still looking very flat on it's entire Western side.Is this just a normal occurrence in development or is shear an issue?
Quoting 1790. Grothar:

Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.


once the plane is done
Fiona still has a closed circulation, but remains devoid of any convection, so she remains a remnant low.
1803. FOREX
Quoting 1790. Grothar:

Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.


2pm Eastern please.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 231432
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

...FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 64.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES
Quoting 1794. Articuno:



Did not know that, thanks

Articuno !!!!!!!
Please stop downcast 99L lol
1808. IKE
..FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
lag in comments again wth
1810. Grothar
Putting up shutters, moving the patio furniture in, preparing the food, removing debris. Poor Mrs. G. is going to be exhausted.

Gaston is putting on a nice strengthening show in the MDR. 65 mph wow!
Showing 85 knots at 850 mb
Quoting 1728. FOREX:

Way out in time, but here in Panama City Beach our water temp was 89 this morning.It had dipped down to 83 when the low that battered Louisiana came through here,but it jumped back up since.
Will be interesting to see how the new hwy 331 bridge fairs in a TS. My kids just got into surfing this summer and they are very excited at the potential for some good waves with a gulf storm!
test
1815. IKE
On Fiona.....

The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

Strengthening ridge for 99L.
1816. IKE
Blog is stuck. Overload time.
1817. IKE
An eye popping on Gaston.
Where are my posts?
Is the blog not updating for anyone else?
Looks as if 99 just took in a bit of dry air, disrupting the convection that formed.



Looks as if the blog is suffering from a hiccup as well.
Hurricane Hunters are taking a dive south into what could be the COC. Should be in the disturbance within the hour.
1822. Drakoen
ECMWF EPS 00z showing a solid ridge over the eastern CONUS. #noescape

Quoting 1789. daddyjames:


That other one to the right is Gaston. 99L is not even showing up at that height.


Gaston is at 34.6W, he wouldn't even show on that chart.
Louisiana is under water, mosquitoes are bound to be present and increasing, with a tropical system heading westbound and getting trapped by a ridge, things could get outta control even more with an organized tropical system impacting LA with the entire state going under water and then a widespread Zika event.
Is there an UPLAC over 99L?
Quoting 1790. Grothar:
Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.



I'm pretty sure we'll get an update once the data from Recon comes in!
"Fiona is Finished"

Lol, goodbye princess
Quoting 1785. ricderr:

another spaghetti model........if i had to venture a reasonable guess I would think the treasure Coast is in for another....however...i always say trust the XTRAP model...it's always right at inception.......





Haaa! Yes, it has its faults, but at least it gives you a straight answer...
Quoting 1810. Grothar:

Putting up shutters, moving the patio furniture in, preparing the food, removing debris. Poor Mrs. G. is going to be exhausted.




please send her my condolences, and regards!
Quoting 1805. Articuno:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 231432
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

...FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 64.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES



LOL, the discussion says Forecaster Blake but this has Avila written all over it.
Quoting 1808. IKE:

..FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


Sure has seen better days.
Quoting 1807. CaribBoy:

Please stop downcast 99L lol

It's gonna hit the northern islands including st.barts
@TropicalTidbits: Invest 99L is now decoupled, w/ sfc center NW of the mid-level center/convection. This was well forecast by models. https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/7680647 53570832385/photo/1
Impressive pre-storm and the dry air to the West/Tutt cell is also retrograding along with it; could have a TD or storm by tomorrow afternoon at this rate:




1835. Drakoen
Site is getting too many requests and WU still hasn't scaled for that.
Quoting 1815. IKE:

On Fiona.....

The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

Strengthening ridge for 99L.



A strengthening ridge will mean a Florida strike then to the GOM.
1837. JRRP
@TropicalTidbits: Invest 99L is now decoupled, w/ sfc center NW of the mid-level center/convection. This was well forecast by models. https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/7680647 53570832385/photo/1
Does the blog have bandwidth issues?
1840. Patrap
AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 14:49 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.63°N 58.85°W
Bearing: 135° at 166 kt
Altitude: 312 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 12 kt at 43°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1012.1 mb

Aircraft Data TimAF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 14:49 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.63°N 58.85°W
Bearing: 135° at 166 kt
Altitude: 312 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 12 kt at 43°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1012.1 mb




Quoting 1821. reedzone:

Hurricane Hunters are taking a dive south into what could be the COC. Should be in the disturbance within the hour.


Looks to have northwesterly surface winds according to the movement of cu field.
Quoting 1822. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 00z showing a solid ridge over the eastern CONUS. #noescape




so, will this ridge eat Fiona or will it just cause her to move toward 99 and merge
What about Gaston...

Quoting 1822. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 00z showing a solid ridge over the eastern CONUS. #noescape


Quoting 1822. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 00z showing a solid ridge over the eastern CONUS. #noescape






If she gets strong enough she'll have a chance however.
1845. Patrap
Quoting 1815. IKE:

On Fiona.....

The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

Strengthening ridge for 99L.


Well that's no fun.
1847. Michfan
Quoting 1822. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 00z showing a solid ridge over the eastern CONUS. #noescape




Yup there isn't going to be any busting of that ridge.
we seem to be lagging behind on comments its blog wide all blogs
Quoting 1822. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 00z showing a solid ridge over the eastern CONUS. #noescape




This will undoubtedly cause the blog to implode....
Quoting 1823. 69Viking:



Gaston is at 34.6W, he wouldn't even show on that chart.


And that is what the chart shows - numbers are hard to see, but it does extend to 20W on the righthand side.
99L is about to explode.
Per Carl Parker, The Weather Channel. Invest 99l, , according to him.........so don't quote me on this. PROBABLY has a closed circulation. Because! It just went by a bouy that detailed this. We will WAIT and see???
Quoting 1821. reedzone:

Hurricane Hunters are taking a dive south into what could be the COC. Should be in the disturbance within the hour.


RECON is currently at 16.3N 58.3W heading ESE
Quoting 1825. bballerf50:

Is there an UPLAC over 99L?


Yes there is an ULAC above 99L.
Quoting 1824. RitaEvac:

Louisiana is under water, mosquitoes are bound to be present and increasing, with a tropical system heading westbound and getting trapped by a ridge, things could get outta control even more with an organized tropical system impacting LA with the entire state going under water and then a widespread Zika event.
it will be ok as long as all pro creation stops too be direct about it
Brand new ASCAT

Looks...interesting

I think we are close to acquiring a closed surface circulation with 99L, even decoupled I have seen them issue advisories on depressions even without the 500mb circulation stacked over the surface circulation, as long as the surface circulation is well defined and present they give it depression status.
Looks like the elongated center of 99L is way south of the official center, unless a new center forms this thing is going to be south of PR/Hispaniola. This is not a very organized storm at the moment regardless, it'll be a few days before we get a TS IMO.
1859. Patrap
Quoting 1855. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will be ok as long as all pro creation stops too be direct about it


?

You makes zero sense.
1860. nash36
Quoting 1857. TheDawnAwakening:

I think we are close to acquiring a closed surface circulation with 99L, even decoupled I have seen them issue advisories on depressions even without the 500mb circulation stacked over the surface circulation, as long as the surface circulation is well defined and present they give it depression status.


And if not, this blog will be in a "depression status."

Sorry; couldn't resist. :-)
Quoting 1856. Stormchaser2007:

Brand new ASCAT

Looks...interesting




30-40 mph winds if I'm reading this right??
Quoting 1850. daddyjames:


And that is what the chart shows - numbers are hard to see, but it does extend to 20W on the righthand side.


I wish you could expand the charts and make them bigger, doesn't look like it goes past 40 West but if you say so I'll believe you.
1863. Patrap
Quoting 1851. CaribBoy:

99L is about to explode.


My anxiety is about to explode.

Two cruise ships cancelled out: one today and the other tomorrow. They aren't taking any chances with this one.

-L
Quoting 1810. Grothar:

Putting up shutters, moving the patio furniture in, preparing the food, removing debris. Poor Mrs. G. is going to be exhausted.




On a side note- what is up with the GFDL? It used to be a fairly reliable model, but it has been terrible for the last few years. It can't seem to keep track of pressure centers on anything less organized than a strong tropical storm, and has all kinds of forecast grid issues.
1866. Drakoen
Quoting 1856. Stormchaser2007:

Brand new ASCAT

Looks...interesting




Looks like it's just a wave axis with a hint of the system attempting to close of its circulation.
There are a lot of different wind directions showing that a circulation is developing, but satellite suggests its further west than that ASCAT image above and that it has northwesterly winds.
Unlike yesterday, new convection is starting to refire near the supposed COC right after the current one is fading. Could be a sign that this is organizing.
1st time poster! Are the Carolina's out of the woods with 99L yet? Ridge seems to be strong???

Awesome info on here!
Quoting 1859. Patrap:



?

You makes zero sense.


I know I did not understand it that's for sure....

Taco :o)
Quoting 1851. CaribBoy:

99L is about to explode.

Waiting to see what the HH find. Still looks disorganized to me.
Quoting 1858. pipelines:

Looks like the elongated center of 99L is way south of the official center, unless a new center forms this thing is going to be south of PR/Hispaniola. This is not a very organized storm at the moment regardless, it'll be a few days before we get a TS IMO.


This is not that far south, it is not going south of PR or Hispaniola sorry.
Quoting 1862. 69Viking:



I wish you could expand the charts and make them bigger, doesn't look like it goes past 40 West but if you say so I'll believe you.


Because my eyes are failing as I age, I have to zoom in on the browser just to be able to even discern the numbers (usually around 150%)
1874. Drakoen
Quoting 1842. tiggeriffic:



so, will this ridge eat Fiona or will it just cause her to move toward 99 and merge


ECMWF shows the ridge moving Fiona to the west but not merging with 99L.
Looks like the elongated center of 99L is way south of the official center, unless a new center forms this thing is going to be south of PR/Hispaniola. This is not a very organized storm at the moment regardless, it'll be a few days before we get a TS IMO.
Quoting 1847. Michfan:



Yup there isn't going to be any busting of that ridge.


no busting but what about....pumping? lol
Quoting 1869. joseph1010:

1st time poster! Are the Carolina's out of the woods with 99L yet? Ridge seems to be strong???

Awesome info on here!


Not out of the woods yet. Stay posted- we should have a better grip on this once we start to get some recon data into the models.
Quoting 1871. JParsons:


Waiting to see what the HH find. Still looks disorganized to me.


99L will most likely remain 'unstacked' until it gets to the southeastern Bahamas. Then it will power up.
Hurricane Hunters are now inside the storm, finding light winds for now. There look to be sampling the north side first as the track of the plane is going ENE/NE
Quoting 1869. joseph1010:

1st time poster! Are the Carolina's out of the woods with 99L yet? Ridge seems to be strong???

Awesome info on here!


I would say currently yes, unless something like the 00z EURO is correct.
And now several pages of debates on where the center might be and where the storm might go.................Thank God we was actual recon to feed into the models for the new model runs later today and tomorrow..........................................
Quoting 1869. joseph1010:

1st time poster! Are the Carolina's out of the woods with 99L yet? Ridge seems to be strong???

Awesome info on here!


Welcome to the Blog...
and to answer your question I would say "Not Yet" ....
Still has a lot of time before it gets up that way....

Taco :o)
1882. Patrap
Quoting 1859. Patrap:



?

You makes zero sense.


Although there is a big hub-a-bub about Zika, the vast majority of people that do acquire it do not even realize they have it, beyond feeling miserable for a few days. The most significant impacts of the virus are on developing fetuses, and on immuno-challenged [= older) people.
So he was addressing the developing fetus part of the issue.
1884. Patrap
Quoting 1879. TheDawnAwakening:



I would say currently yes, unless something like the 00z EURO is correct.


No one is out of the woods yet, from Brownsville Texas to Lubec Maine.
Quoting 1859. Patrap:



?

You makes zero sense.
well pat u get a little sick and as long as no one gets fixed up in a family way its likely curable later but it deforms the fetus if it becomes infected rendering the life form altered from a normal state of brain development mainly a neurological standpoint anyway therefore stopping normal reproduction in the human species
Remember it isn't supposed to form until the Bahamas so if the ASCAT or HH had found a TD, that would have been more surprising.

Is that a pinhole eye I see in Gaston?
Good morning everyone: breakfast's on the sideboard- sausage links with hash browns, eggs Benedict with a Hollandaise sauce, assorted breakfast pastries, fresh fruit, New Orleans bignettes, orange juice. Enjoy! :-)
1890. OKsky
edit: zap! nm :)
Quoting 1880. weathermanwannabe:

And now several pages of debates on where the center might be and where the storm might go.................Thank God we was actual recon to feed into the models for the new model runs later today and tomorrow..........................................
tonight's 00z run will be the set too tell the tale
Quoting 1887. VAbeachhurricanes:

Remember it isn't supposed to form until the Bahamas so if the ASCAT or HH had found a TD, that would have been more surprising.


HHs aren't done yet.
1893. JRRP
Quoting 1882. Patrap:



The center could be SE of HH
who knows
The Tropical WRF Model shows that 99L's convection is only gonna get better by over the next 12-24 hours.
Quoting 1885. pipelines:



No one is out of the woods yet, from Brownsville Texas to Lubec Maine.


Or the fish in the middle of the ocean
I know all eyes are on 99l right now, but I'd like to give a shout out to whatever model sends Gaston OTS.
1898. Grothar
Quoting 1865. SavannahStorm:



On a side note- what is up with the GFDL? It used to be a fairly reliable model, but it has been terrible for the last few years. It can't seem to keep track of pressure centers on anything less organized than a strong tropical storm, and has all kinds of forecast grid issues.


It has been slipping badly. The GFS doesn't appear to have a full handle on Fiona or 99L.
Quoting 1888. HurricaneFan:


Is that a pinhole eye I see in Gaston?
Possibly, could be the start, but who knows then again.
1900. Loduck
Quoting 1790. Grothar:

Boys and girls, let me know when you want the Doc and Mr. Henson to come on. I will make a post.


12 noon please...Need a good lunch time read!
1901. FOREX
Quoting 1887. VAbeachhurricanes:

Remember it isn't supposed to form until the Bahamas so if the ASCAT or HH had found a TD, that would have been more surprising.
someone mentioned in earlier post it is decoupled, so maybe no depression yet.
Quoting 1893. JRRP:


The center could be SE of HH
who knows


That's where the satellite imagery shows it is, just southeast of their track, likely in the strongest convection.
1903. Grothar
Quoting 1897. Climate175:




Have you checked your mail?
Quoting 1888. HurricaneFan:


Is that a pinhole eye I see in Gaston?


Lol, we'll go with "eye-like feature" for now. Definitely appears to be building an eye wall and could make a run at hurricane status before the day is through.
HH has found west winds at 16.483N 57.367W
Quoting 1904. SavannahStorm:



Lol, we'll go with "eye-like feature" for now. Definitely appears to be building an eye wall and could make a run at hurricane status before the day is through.

Actually, it is an eye. And it's shrinking. fast. It's not an eye-like, it's an actual eye.
1907. Patrap
Zika, we r well aware of it in Louisiana.

Thanx
1908. Ed22
Quoting 1888. HurricaneFan:


Is that a pinhole eye I see in Gaston?
Could be Hurricane by this afternoon, very impressive storm.
1909. BayFog
Quoting 1888. HurricaneFan:


Is that a pinhole eye I see in Gaston?

Yep. It's a hurricane now.
1910. Patrap
AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:19 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.48°N 57.37°W
Bearing: 90° at 230 kt
Altitude: 249 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 2 kt at 267°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

1911. Loduck
Quoting 1896. muddertracker:

I know all eyes are on 99l right now, but I'd like to give a shout out to whatever model sends Gaston OTS.
I'm pretty sure it's all of em
centre of 99L is at 15.1N 57W. The mid level circulation is at 16.2N 56.8 W
1913. RayT
Looks like 99L is finally starting to organize.

it may already be a depression. With any luck, it will come in on the south side of Puerto Rico and Hispanola and get disrupted by the land interaction before it can get too strong.
1914. Grothar
Quoting 1890. OKsky:



The worst effects of zika affect pregnant women (well their fetuses actually).... so i think he was saying "don't breed" and you will be fine? Of course that doesn't help people that already did. :)
pretty much ironic to be honest its almost like nature is gonna fix its problems on the planet by removing the ability to mass produce therefore in about hundred years if it lasted that long and goes global well that would be it for humans minus those grew in test tubes maybe as a last ditch effort to save the race

question is

is that natures plan
Quoting 1888. HurricaneFan:


Is that a pinhole eye I see in Gaston?

yes.
1917. nash36
12z GFS running now.....

Quoting 1903. Grothar:



Have you checked your mail?
Yes, I just replied.
1919. Patrap
Quoting 1855. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will be ok as long as all pro creation stops too be direct about it


Ha ha, I see what you did there. That would stop one vector of transmission.
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Downpours will persist over flood-ravaged areas of Louisiana through the middle of the week: http://ow.ly/cIJt303vpjl
1922. luigi18
1923. Houdude


Looks like Gaston has opened a pinhole eye.
1924. Gearsts
HH found West winds???
1925. JRRP
Quoting 1910. Patrap:

AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:19 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.48°N 57.37°W
Bearing: 90° at 230 kt
Altitude: 249 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 2 kt at 267°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A



ok now that is the center
1926. Patrap
RECON finds center at about 16.4N 57.3W
1928. Ed22
Quoting 1904. SavannahStorm:



Lol, we'll go with "eye-like feature" for now. Definitely appears to be building an eye wall and could make a run at hurricane status before the day is through.
Don't be too surprised if we Gaston strengthen into a major Hurricane by Wednesday.
1929. nash36
Quoting 1924. Gearsts:

HH found West winds???


Need an official vortex msg.
1931. Patrap
Observations last 10 minutes

1932. Gearsts
Quoting 1927. wunderkidcayman:

RECON finds center at about 16.4N 57.3W
So the system has move due west since yesterday?
Recon is finding winds of 30 mph. so far, nothing higher yet. They are in the current convection that started to wane a hour ago. New convection popping to the south though. Should be interesting today, we may or may not get a TD.
Recon found the blogs now a cat 4!!
1935. Michfan
Quoting 1875. pipelines:

Looks like the elongated center of 99L is way south of the official center, unless a new center forms this thing is going to be south of PR/Hispaniola. This is not a very organized storm at the moment regardless, it'll be a few days before we get a TS IMO.

no busting but what about....pumping? lol


LOL I tried not to go there.
Quoting 1925. JRRP:


ok now that is the center


If so then no decoupling of low and mid centers ?
Quoting 1931. Patrap:

Observations last 10 minutes




Next one looks interesting.

How nice to wake up to a recon flight to go with my coffee!
Quoting 1932. Gearsts:

So the system has move due west since yesterday?


It was doing that from about 12 last night.
1939. Gearsts
1940. Patrap
Recon has sent no vortex msg,as of 15:29



Could anyone help out and let me know what the 0z Euro said? The blog moved way to fast since last night and I can't seem to find what page it's on, plus I currently can't look up the euro myself. Thanks in advance!
Quoting 1923. Houdude:



Looks like Gaston has opened a pinhole eye.

I dont think tropical storms can have "pinhole" eyes ... i could be wrong tho. Lets stick with "eye-like" feature. Give Gaston some time and he will be eyeing us shortly :)
RE NUMBER FLAGGED
T.C.F.A.
99L/08L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
16N/57W
1944. GatorWX
Quoting 1919. Patrap:




I think we may have ourselves a cane. Probably by 5, earliest. Looking good though! 99 looks like a depression, but we'll see what their analysis uncovers. If I were on the ec of FL, I'd be getting things in order just in case. To me, seems like the biggest threat we've had in awhile. Synoptics seem to favor a fairly strong system, assuming one develops at all, to affect the region. My two cents. Oh, and Fiona is not looking too good. May finally have bitten the dust, for now.
Quoting 1940. Patrap:

Recon has sent no vortex msg,as of 15:29






Still very early in the run. Waiting to see what a sonde has to say.
Quoting 1942. hurricaneryan87:


I dont think tropical storms can have "pinhole" eyes ... i could be wrong tho. Lets stick with "eye-like" feature. Give Gaston some time and he will be eyeing us shortly :)

No. NHC just being conservative and it only gained one now, after the advisories. NHC will likely classify it as a hurricane when they see the image.
Quoting 1912. stoormfury:

centre of 99L is at 15.1N 57W. The mid level circulation is at 16.2N 56.8 W


not the case at this time but who knows RECON may just fly down there and find a relocating LLC
1948. Gearsts
Quoting 1943. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

RE NUMBER FLAGGED
T.C.F.A.
99L/08L/INV/XX/XX

TD what who when???
1949. Grothar
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1951. Michfan
Quoting 1936. kmanislander:



If so then no decoupling of low and mid centers ?


Doesn't seem like it. This may be more organized than we originally thought. The data input from this flight is going to be crucial for the models. The models will be much more accurate once they do.
Navy removed Invest 99L from their page. Is something up?
Quoting 1943. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

RE NUMBER FLAGGED
T.C.F.A.
99L/08L/INV/XX/XX



I believe recon has found a Tropical Depression.. Stronger and organizing further then all the models predicted. GFS needs to step up now.
Quoting 1928. Ed22:

Don't be too surprised if we Gaston strengthen into a major Hurricane by Wednesday.

If it does (and i kinda agree with you although major by tomorrow might be a little fast) then it goes from prolly 85 to 90% chance OTS to 100% OTS. A major fish storm would do this blog wonders lol we need it ... especially if it long tracks as well.
Quoting 1952. HurricaneFan:

Navy removed Invest 99L from their page. Is something up?
08L likely
1956. nash36
One again, the GFS is lost after 48hrs.
1957. Grothar



Change in status of 99L coming any minute.


Quoting 1953. reedzone:



I believe recon has found a Tropical Depression.. Stronger and organizing further then all the models predicted. GFS needs to step up now.


Now if it is a depression that will impact model calculations.
New Blog
Gaston is a fish storm for sure, but what a coincidence of ONE LONE GOM storm that blew away SE TX from this location within 2 degrees of Gaston right now.

1961. wpb
global hawk will be doing research mission over gaston 8/24
24 hours 86 drops
1962. Patrap


AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:39 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.18°N 56.63°W
Bearing: 90° at 231 kt
Altitude: 254 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 11 kt at 139°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1013.0 mb

Quoting 1932. Gearsts:

So the system has move due west since yesterday?


yeah pretty much

Quoting 1938. kmanislander:



It was doing that from about 12 last night.


yeah pretty much

interesting UN admitted it was one of their peace keepers from Nepal that brought in cholera to Haiti a few yrs back. good luck all
1965. Loduck
Do the HH's fly storms that are forecast to go OTS like Gaston?
1966. Patrap
Standby for vortex msg
Quoting 1926. Patrap:






Gaston's still quite the show off
Quoting 1955. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

08L likely

What i see from recon looks more like they removed it beacuse they found it is upper level and not low level
Quoting 1943. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

RE NUMBER FLAGGED
T.C.F.A.
99L/08L/INV/XX/XX

depression 8 ?
1970. Patrap
1971. wpb
REMARKS: THE GLOBAL HAWK (NASA 872) IS PLANNING A 24 HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. DEPARTURE
24/1000Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 86 DROPS.
1972. Patrap
Quoting 1965. Loduck:

Do the HH's fly storms that are forecast to go OTS like Gaston?


Not where Gaston is currently.


The 2 nhc recon aircraft have a limited range,....and those specifics can b found easily.
1973. Patrap
1974. Patrap
I believe Guadeloupe has a radar if someone can hunt down the link..I'm traveling and on my kindle.
1975. wpb
Quoting 1972. Patrap:



Not where Gaston is currently.


The 2 nhc recon aircraft have a limited range,....and those specifics can b found easily.
REMARKS: THE GLOBAL HAWK (NASA 872) IS PLANNING A 24 HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. DEPARTURE
24/1000Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 86 DROPS.
1976. Patrap
99L is fluffy.




visible appears to show multiple centers of circulation at the surface...the coc appears to be near 16.5 & 57.7...
1978. wpb
Quoting 1966. Patrap:

Standby for vortex msg
maybe wednesday pm or thursday need a soild west wind. not there yet
Guadalupe Radar Link
1980. wpb
Quoting 1969. TheDeathStar:

depression 8 ?
Quoting 1955. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

08L likely
dont even have a west wind no reason to go with 8l yet.
Tropical Atlantic Radars Link
1982. Patrap
Global hawk is a unmanned drone that fly's above the storm.





It is a asset,jus like the coyote flying dropsonde.



1983. Patrap

AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:59 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.13°N 55.87°W
Bearing: 243° at 260 kt
Altitude: 252 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 110°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1012.7 mb


Quoting 1978. wpb:

maybe wednesday pm or thursday need a soild west wind. not there yet


There has to be a west wind, otherwise they wouldn't renumber the invest.
1985. wpb
navy site 99l
anybody wants to know. We have a NEW BLOG! I know its going too fast but jeff has it posted at #1950
1987. Patrap
Quoting 1983. Patrap:


AF309 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:59 UTC Aug 23, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.13°N 55.87°W
Bearing: 243° at 260 kt
Altitude: 252 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 110°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1012.7 mb





There are barbs that show there is a southwest wind, so the west winds are probably not sampled yet, give it time geesh.
1989. Patrap
TS Gaston



1990. fmbill
Here we go!

Quoting 1938. kmanislander:



It was doing that from about 12 last night.
For almost 24 hours, now.
Quoting 1581. Grothar:

99L close to TD status.


Think it may have been just on the verge - then ingestion of dry air (and any decoupling that may have occurred) may have temporarily put an end to it.

Renumber is imminent.
1994. RayT
did 99L wobble to the south a bit? It sure looks like it did.
1995. Crucian
99L Carbon Copy of Erika. (although weaker). A blob of convection separated from the LLC and dropped in on St. Croix with Erika with gusts near 80kts. Blob of 99L dropped in same way as LLC passes N.

17,44.19N 64,41,49W Moderate to Heavy rainfall, 1.37" current total, 1.06 per hour rate. Barometer steady at 29.86, 600ft ASL. No lightening, no audible thunder since storm approached. Wind less than 15kts out of WSW.
1996. Crucian
17.44.19N 64.41.49W St Croix Rain paused, wind light and variable, Barometer 29.86 and steady, 1.64" rainfall accumulation.