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99L a heavy rainfall threat for Jamaica, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on October 21, 2012

A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that have a good degree of spin. These thunderstorms are beginning to organize into spiral bands, as seen on visible satellite loops. However, the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is about the same as yesterday, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L this afternoon, but I expect this flight will be rescheduled for later.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure to the north of 99L is expected to turn the storm to the north or north-northeast, which should put 99L in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. By Friday, 99L should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling 99L to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a narrow ridge of high pressure has the potential to build in over 99L late this week and force the storm west-northwest, with a potential threat to the western Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by next weekend. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday morning. 99L will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches in mountainous areas, to Jamaica and Haiti, Monday through Wednesday. Heavy rains will begin on Tuesday in Eastern Cuba, and spread northwards into the Central and Eastern Bahamas by Wednesday.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 830 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a small amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is providing 90L the spin it needs to become a tropical cyclone, but is also pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Tuesday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots on Tuesday night through Thursday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone, and it's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday morning.

The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for 2012 is Sandy.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Speeky:
I live in New York. Should I be afraid of 99L?

be afraid....very afraid...............not

Quoting wxchaser97:

I wouldn't be afraid of 99L, at least not right now. There are too many variables so we don't know where it will go and how strong when/if it gets that far north. Just monitor the progress of 99L and continue on with your daily life.


Thats what I also do :)
I expect to see post like this over the week.

"I'm visiting Deleware.Would I need to take any caution?"

or

"My family lives in New Jersey what should they expect"

I just know it.It's going to be classic.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I expect to see post like this over the week.

"I'm visiting Deleware.Would I need to take any caution?"

or

"My family lives in New Jersey what should they expect"

I just know it.It's going to be classic.


Also there could be "I got family in Maryland so will they be ok?"
I seriously though do have family in Maryland but I know they should be fine.
Quoting beell:
I keep hearing about this trough that will pull 99L out of the Caribbean. It's modeled effects are apparent over the Bahamas later in the week but something else must be in play to get it headed that direction in the short term.

There is no trough anywhere near as 99L crosses Cuba-still off to the west. Nothing but ridging over the Gulf. All I see is the possibility for the ridge to begin lifting N and allowing 99L to begin a more northward track.

Comments, corrections?
Good question, I was asking myself this last night.

Looking at the low levels there are no obvious features that would pull this storm out of the Caribbean. However, if we compare the surface level to the mid level it is clear that this system is not only heavily weighted to the NE in terms of convection and precipitation, but also severely vertically tilted -- if you can even call it that. The center of the mid level circulation is a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low. The displacement of the mid level circulation is a direct result of the shear and strong divergence caused by an upper level trough to the west of the system. As this trough amplifies, it is pushing convection off to the eastern half of the storm by inflicting westerly shear. Furthermore, the amplification of the subtropical jet produces a strong outflow jet to the NE of the storm, providing divergence and allowing convection to flourish in that area. As a result, we get a lopsided storm with the strongest convection in the NE quad. Since the convection is so much stronger to the NE, the surface low is naturally favored under the area, which causes it to follow the convection.

18z 250 mb Winds and Heights @39hrs




Upper level trough feature is traced out in purple. Notice the subtropical jet providing an outflow channel/jet out to the NE.

18z Surface Analysis @39hrs




18z 500mb Vorticity and Heights @39hrs



Notice the center of the mid level circulation is just south of Jamaica here, a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low. Also notice how the 582mb line of the storm extends very closely to the 582mb line of the mid-Atlantic trough just to the N of the lesser Antilles. In fact, in between these 582mb lines we can make out a weak trough feature in the wind barbs (looking just north of PR). This is likely helping pull the storm out of the Caribbean.

So it is the shear and upper divergence weighting the storm to the NE forcing the surface low to follow the mid level circulation out to the NE. Furthermore, the relatively strong mid level circulation produced as a result of the massive area of convection is feeling a bit of the weakness left behind by a passing trough in the Atlantic. These two features appear to be what is initially drawing the storm out of the Caribbean.


One last image to drive the point home...

18z GFS 500mb Heights and Humidity 12hrs later @51hrs




Looking at the humidity signature, it is clear this storm will be very strongly weighted to the north and east of the surface low. The displaced convection will force the surface low to follow as the convection naturally produces the area of lowest pressures. Furthermore, we can see the weakness in the mid levels is still left behind by the mid-Atlantic trough which is helping pull on the system.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I expect to see post like this over the week.

"I'm visiting Deleware.Would I need to take any caution?"

or

"My family lives in New Jersey what should they expect"

I just know it.It's going to be classic.



Hey who wants to send me on an all expense paid trip to NE and the Mid-Atlantic for Halloween?
I'll send back video :) jk
But this could be a fun experience for those living there, depending on how this pans out.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Hey who wants to send me on an all expense paid trip to NE and the Mid-Atlantic for Halloween?
I'll send back video :) jk

How was your swim meet today, sorry but I had to ask?
I volunteer to not send you to the NE. I'll just go myself and bring back video.
Well I'm not visiting Delaware..and no family in Maryland..but I DO have a "ghost hunting" tour booked for my granddaughters 14th birthday for the 27th in St.Augustine Fla....lol..my only hope is it is bad enough for them to reschedule the tours as the tickets had to be paid in advance and are non refundable..oh and good eve all..
Very nice Tropical Tidbit Levi...

Levi's Tropical Tidbit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we wait and see the next run i reckon
things will kick into high gear
by tomorrow afternoon and build from there


This is a TX storm.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Good question, I was asking myself this last night.

Looking at the low levels there are no obvious features that would pull this storm out of the Caribbean. However, if we compare the surface level to the mid level it is clear that this system is not only heavily weighted to the NE in terms of convection and precipitation, but also severely vertically tilted -- if you can even call it that. The center of the mid level circulation is a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low. The displacement of the mid level circulation is a direct result of the shear and strong divergence caused by an upper level trough to the west of the system. As this trough amplifies, it is pushing convection off to the eastern half of the storm by inflicting westerly shear. Furthermore, the amplification of the subtropical jet produces a strong outflow jet to the NE of the storm, providing divergence and allowing convection to flourish in that area. As a result, we get a lopsided storm with the strongest convection in the NE quad. Since the convection is so much stronger to the NE, the surface low is naturally favored under the area, which causes it to follow the convection.

18z 250 mb Winds and Heights @39hrs




Upper level trough feature is traced out in purple. Notice the subtropical jet providing an outflow channel/jet out to the NE.

18z Surface Analysis @39hrs




18z 500mb Vorticity and Heights @39hrs



Notice the center of the mid level circulation is just south of Jamaica here, a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low. Also notice how the 582mb line of the storm extends very closely to the 582mb line of the mid-Atlantic trough just to the N of the lesser Antilles. In fact, in between these 582mb lines we can make out a weak trough feature in the wind barbs (looking just north of PR). This is likely helping pull the storm out of the Caribbean.

So it is the shear and upper divergence weighting the storm to the NE forcing the surface low to follow the mid level circulation out to the NE. Furthermore, the relatively strong mid level circulation produced as a result of the massive area of convection is feeling a bit of the weakness left behind by a passing trough in the Atlantic. These two features appear to be what is initially drawing the storm out of the Caribbean.


One last image to drive the point home...

18z GFS 500mb Heights and Humidity 12hrs later @51hrs




Looking at the humidity signature, it is clear this storm will be very strongly weighted to the north and east of the surface low. The displaced convection will force the surface low to follow as the convection naturally produces the area of lowest pressures. Furthermore, we can see the weakness in the mid levels is still left behind by the mid-Atlantic trough which is helping pull on the system.


Good analysis there. But why NHC keeps saying that enviromental conditions will be favorable?
512. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
Good question, I was asking myself this last night.

Looking at the low levels there are no obvious features that would pull this storm out of the Caribbean. However, if we compare the surface level to the mid level it is clear that this system is not only heavily weighted to the NE in terms of convection and precipitation, but also severely vertically tilted -- if you can even call it that. The center of the mid level circulation is a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low. The displacement of the mid level circulation is a direct result of the shear and strong divergence caused by an upper level trough to the west of the system. As this trough amplifies, it is pushing convection off to the eastern half of the storm by inflicting westerly shear. Furthermore, the amplification of the subtropical jet produces a strong outflow jet to the NE of the storm, providing divergence and allowing convection to flourish in that area. As a result, we get a lopsided storm with the strongest convection in the NE quad. Since the convection is so much stronger to the NE, the surface low is naturally favored under the area, which causes it to follow the convection.

18z 250 mb Winds and Heights @39hrs




Upper level trough feature is traced out in purple. Notice the subtropical jet providing an outflow channel/jet out to the NE.

18z Surface Analysis @39hrs




18z 500mb Vorticity and Heights @39hrs



Notice the center of the mid level circulation is just south of Jamaica here, a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low. Also notice how the 582mb line of the storm extends very closely to the 582mb line of the mid-Atlantic trough just to the N of the lesser Antilles. In fact, in between these 582mb lines we can make out a weak trough feature in the wind barbs (looking just north of PR). This is likely helping pull the storm out of the Caribbean.

So it is the shear and upper divergence weighting the storm to the NE forcing the surface low to follow the mid level circulation out to the NE. Furthermore, the relatively strong mid level circulation produced as a result of the massive area of convection is feeling a bit of the weakness left behind by a passing trough in the Atlantic. These two features appear to be what is initially drawing the storm out of the Caribbean.


One last image to drive the point home...

18z GFS 500mb Heights and Humidity 12hrs later @51hrs




Looking at the humidity signature, it is clear this storm will be very strongly weighted to the north and east of the surface low. The displaced convection will force the surface low to follow as the convection naturally produces the area of lowest pressures. Furthermore, we can see the weakness in the mid levels is still left behind by the mid-Atlantic trough which is helping pull on the system.


Having a little trouble finding an actual mid-level center a few hundred miles to the NE of any surface center at the present time.

Your explanation is similar to Levi's and is a workable mechanism at some point. I'll take my monsoon depression scenario and go home now, lol.
(j/k)

And thank you for the detailed response.
First dry air out of the north here in Key West that we have had so far this year. Before today I was going through 3 shirts a day it was so humid. Maybe this does have enough juice to take 99l NE. We will see.
Quoting wxchaser97:

How was your swim meet today, sorry but I had to ask?
I volunteer to not send you to the NE. I'll just go myself and bring back video.


Take me with you!

My swim meet was fine, just an early season foray back into competition. I didnt do too well or too poorly but I can judge where I'm at.
It is down right pleasant outside right now... Low(er) humidity and feels like it is under 80F.

What happened?
It was very hot in parts of the nation's midsection today, primarily Oklahoma, which saw a number of record high temps in the mid 90s. That'll be short-lived, however, as the CPC is now calling for some pretty cold weather for a huge chunk of the U.S. centered around the lower Mississippi Valley in the 6-10 day period. The West Coast and the extreme Northeast will remain toasty, but, still, next week's setup looks very fall-like...

cold
18z HWRF imitates GFS and also shifts east.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Take me with you!

My swim meet was fine, just an early season foray back into competition. I didnt do too well or too poorly but I can judge where I'm at.

Nah, I'm good going by myself.
So in short you didn't do good and you are trying to make yourself feel better.

Quoting Dakster:
It is down right pleasant outside right now... Low(er) humidity and feels like it is under 80F.

What happened?

I had perfect weather today where I'm at. There were no clouds in the sky and temps were in the 50s to 60s for the day. Maybe today was good weather day?
both gfdl and hwrf shift eastward..
I like that model, but it appears that they are in windshield wiper mode...

WxChaer97 - I guess we are entitled to a good weather day every once in a while. Although I really, really like the winters down here. Not a lot of rain, humidity, and usually the temperature is nice. (Never gets too cold for me, but sometimes we still get hot days)
Quoting Neapolitan:
It was very hot in parts of the nation's midsection today, primarily Oklahoma, which saw a number of record high temps in the mid 90s. That'll be short-lived, however, as the CPC is now calling for some pretty cold weather for a huge chunk of the U.S. centered around the lower Mississippi Valley in the 6-10 day period. The West Coast and the extreme Northeast will remain toasty, but, still, next week's setup looks very fall-like...

cold

The 8-14 day outlook shifts the cold weather to the east some while the warm temps come further east too. Half the country would still remain in a welcomed fall pattern while others are pretty warm. The eastern 1/3 of the country would remain wet while the other 2/3 are average to below average, besides the Pacific NW.
Quoting beell:


Having a little trouble finding an actual mid-level center a few hundred miles to the NE of any surface center at the present time.

Your explanation is similar to Levi's and is a workable mechanism at some point. I'll take my monsoon depression scenario and go home now, lol.
(j/k)

And thank you for the detailed response.
Well that is expected, the system hasn't really had a chance to develop yet. Mid level circulation has been lagging behind the surface circulation off to the east. This can be seen on CIMSS imagery and satellite imagery.

I'm fine with the classification as a monsoon depression. I don't understand how that directly relates to the storm being pulled out of the Caribbean, however.
Good evening fellow bloggers!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good analysis there. But why NHC keeps saying that enviromental conditions will be favorable?
Conditions will be favorable for gradual development. The storm wont have a chance for more significant development until it exits the Caribbean, however.
I've been reading about the possible scenarios today - what are the chances that 99L follows a path similar to Wilma? Is that possibility even in the cards?
Quoting TropicsGirl:
I've been reading about the possible scenarios today - what are the chances that 99L follows a path similar to Wilma? Is that possibility even in the cards?


No.
Convection continues to fire with 90L although it is not particularly deep in nature.

Quoting TropicsGirl:
I've been reading about the possible scenarios today - what are the chances that 99L follows a path similar to Wilma? Is that possibility even in the cards?

No.
Quoting TropicsGirl:
I've been reading about the possible scenarios today - what are the chances that 99L follows a path similar to Wilma? Is that possibility even in the cards?

No because the environment won't allow 99L to get too far west.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good analysis there. But why NHC keeps saying that enviromental conditions will be favorable?
Same thing happens when Rafael was developing,was moving NNW, approaching the island of Vieques but al the thunder storms were to its NE, in a few hours the center relocated under the thunders storms 80miles to the NE, by St. Martin, ending the threat to Vieques, PUerto Rico, and all the warnings as well...
WTNT21 KNGU 211530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 76.0W TO 14.8N 78.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 75.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 211200Z,
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 221530Z.//
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Very nice Tropical Tidbit Levi...

Levi's Tropical Tidbit

Thanks for sharing, Geoffrey! :)
I would be getting my stuff in order if I lived in the Cayman Islands...

While I don't think it will be a major Hurricane event, it could get a little nasty for them.
Hi nigel. Are the authorities there talking about this system and about preparations?
99L
537. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection continues to fire with 90L although it is not particularly deep in nature.



Probably due to the weak ULL just to the NE of it.

But D-max could give it a push, come on 90L!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah, I'm good going by myself.
So in short you didn't do good and you are trying to make yourself feel better.


?


No I wasn't going to do much better anyway, we arent trained for that right now, its more for evaluation at this point. :)
539. 7544
Quoting TropicsGirl:
I've been reading about the possible scenarios today - what are the chances that 99L follows a path similar to Wilma? Is that possibility even in the cards?


normally this time of the year they do but this ones going to head north maybe more like a fay track imo or make a left turn briefly just off of se fla imho
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi nigel. Are the authorities there talking about this system there and about preparations?

Hey Tropics! Yes they are, this statement was released earlier today...

October 21, 2012 at 5 p.m.

*** INCREASED RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK……WITH POSSIBLE STORM CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK
***


An Area of Low Pressure, with an associated Tropical Wave, is currently southeast of Jamaica and is generating unstable weather conditions over the island and its territorial waters. The System which is expected to be southwest of Jamaica on Tuesday, and move over the island on Wednesday, currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours The forecast is for occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms to impact the island particularly during the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday through Thursday expect an increase in rainfall with possible stormy weather conditions developing by Wednesday

Fishers and other marine interests, especially those on the cays and banks, are strongly advised to exercise caution as the system remains over the area. All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service

rlb
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No I wasn't going to do much better anyway, we arent trained for that right now, its more for evaluation at this point. :)

Yeah... sure... right...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection continues to fire with 90L although it is not particularly deep in nature.


It is an improvement and 90L is looking better. I believe this has a decent chance to develop into Sandy or Tony.
542. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well that is expected, the system hasn't really had a chance to develop yet. Mid level circulation has been lagging behind the surface circulation off to the east. This can be seen on CIMSS imagery and satellite imagery.

I'm fine with the classification as a monsoon depression. I don't understand how that directly relates to the storm being pulled out of the Caribbean, however.


Top to bottom.
850, 700, 500mb relative vorticity.





Seems somewhat "stacked" on the CIMSS products.

And in my fantasy world, a surface center would make a cylonic loop around the larger low covering the entire Caribbean and begin a northward track-with the monsoon-like depression lifting out to the NE-still trying to coalesce a well defined surface center somewhere in the middle of the broader low. The broad low following the path of least resistance as you have described after 72-96 hrs.
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 012 hr 84
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 024 hr 84
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics! Yes they are, this statement was released earlier today...

October 21, 2012 at 5 p.m.

*** INCREASED RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK……WITH POSSIBLE STORM CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK
***


An Area of Low Pressure, with an associated Tropical Wave, is currently southeast of Jamaica and is generating unstable weather conditions over the island and its territorial waters. The System which is expected to be southwest of Jamaica on Tuesday, and move over the island on Wednesday, currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours The forecast is for occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms to impact the island particularly during the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday through Thursday expect an increase in rainfall with possible stormy weather conditions developing by Wednesday

Fishers and other marine interests, especially those on the cays and banks, are strongly advised to exercise caution as the system remains over the area. All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service

rlb

intresting
well,models are putting 99l to our east
YAY:)
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 036 hr 84
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 024 hr 144

sandy does not show up on the map
oh,and i think ill be makin some tcrs till we have an actual storm to track
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 048 hr 144
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 060 hr 144
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 072 hr 84
just updated

552. Gorty
Can't wait to see the 00z GFS run.
18Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 084 hr 84
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics! Yes they are, this statement was released earlier today...

October 21, 2012 at 5 p.m.

*** INCREASED RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK……WITH POSSIBLE STORM CONDITIONS BY MID-WEEK
***


An Area of Low Pressure, with an associated Tropical Wave, is currently southeast of Jamaica and is generating unstable weather conditions over the island and its territorial waters. The System which is expected to be southwest of Jamaica on Tuesday, and move over the island on Wednesday, currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours The forecast is for occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms to impact the island particularly during the afternoon on Monday. On Tuesday through Thursday expect an increase in rainfall with possible stormy weather conditions developing by Wednesday

Fishers and other marine interests, especially those on the cays and banks, are strongly advised to exercise caution as the system remains over the area. All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service

rlb


That is good that they are on top of things. Keep us informed my friend.
99L's pressure is down a millibar...

AL, 99, 2012102200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 777W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Nice AC with 99L
Mid-Atlantic/NorthEast hurricanes tend to hit in bunches over a course of a few years going back in history...We got one last year maybe we are entering a pattern where the Mid-Atlantic gets its share of tropical systemsfor the next decade or so/
558. JRRP

Grecia y Turkia deberia tener cuidado con 90L
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is good that they are on top of things. Keep us informed my friend.

Yeah, no problem.
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Mid-Atlantic/NorthEast hurricanes tend to hit in bunches over a course of a few years going back in history...We got one last year maybe we are entering a pattern where the Mid-Atlantic gets its share of tropical systemsfor the next decade or so/


With all the troughing we keep seeing, I wouldn't be surprised.
Talk about a model spread on 90l.

I'm on Grand Cayman Island right now, and it has gotten breezy but nothing too bad. 
Quoting TomTaylor:
%uFFFDHowever, if we compare the surface level to the mid level it is clear that this system is not only heavily weighted to the NE in terms of convection and precipitation, but also severely vertically tilted -- if you can even call it that. The center of the mid level circulation is a few hundred miles to the NE of the surface low.

Doesn't look like a decoupling to me:




That's a side by side comparison of the lower troposphere (top image) and the upper troposphere (bottom image). It's very obvious where the circulation center is, and there is no apparent displacement. I don't see anything akin on satellite pictures either.

Now I'm not trying to downplay your analysis or anything. You are an excellent poster. I'm just not seeing your point this time.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I'm on Grand Cayman Island right now, and it has gotten breezy but nothing too bad. 

Hopefully it will stay that way!
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Mid-Atlantic/NorthEast hurricanes tend to hit in bunches over a course of a few years going back in history...We got one last year maybe we are entering a pattern where the Mid-Atlantic gets its share of tropical systemsfor the next decade or so/
This is what I've always thought as well. Good thing I kept all my hurricane prep supplies on hand!!
Off topic: So I was fortunate enough to see Jerry Springer hosting the Price Is Right live then to see a Jerry Seinfeld stand up show both for free these past two days and it was awesome...They were both in Atlantic city NJ..My point being if you like either of them and they come around go. They are funnier then you can imagaine in person. would have been well worth the price of admission..ok rant over haha
Quoting wxchaser97:

How was your swim meet today, sorry but I had to ask?
I volunteer to not send you to the NE. I'll just go myself and bring back video.

Or since I live in the NE i could do it for u..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
9:00 AM JST October 22 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.2N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.2N 131.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Honestly I'm not that impressed with 99L right now. It's struggling for convection (probably at least in part due to DMIN though) and the overall structure looks the same as or worse than last night, much more like a t-wave than an organizing cyclone.



I also see the 18z GFS shifted east some. That seems like a pretty reasonable track to me, I think a grazing hit on S FL is possible but I'm not buying the idea of it coming up the East Coast yet, I say it gets pushed out to sea.
I'm betting the graphic design team is busy over at the Weather Channel with the possible NE set up..Im sure brown and orange with be the color schemes in the DOOM captions to keep with Fall..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Honestly I'm not that impressed with 99L right now. It's struggling for convection (probably at least in part due to DMIN though) and the overall structure looks the same as or worse than last night, much more like a t-wave than an organizing cyclone.



I also see the 18z GFS shifted east some. That seems like a pretty reasonable track to me, I think a grazing hit on S FL is possible but I'm not buying the idea of it coming up the East Coast yet, I say it gets pushed out to sea.


Without even looking at anything, I'm going to bet $20 on a tendency toward recurvature. This pattern has been extremely persistent to the point where I can almost track these things with a blindfold.
Last year on halloween if you can will remember it snowed in the Mid-atlantic all the way down to the jersey coast..Had some light snow for a time in Atlantic city later in the night last halloween. Now a storm may possible hit again during the same time.
A beautiful CME left the Sun just a little while ago in association with a moderate solar flare... early indications are it won't be a big deal for Earth, a grazing blow if anything. That could change as 1598 rotates closer in the days ahead.



Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Honestly I'm not that impressed with 99L right now. It's struggling for convection (probably at least in part due to DMIN though) and the overall structure looks the same as or worse than last night, much more like a t-wave than an organizing cyclone.



I also see the 18z GFS shifted east some. That seems like a pretty reasonable track to me, I think a grazing hit on S FL is possible but I'm not buying the idea of it coming up the East Coast yet, I say it gets pushed out to sea.
I think (hope?) you are right and the tropical season is over for the conus. Please.
As complicated as the overall situation is, the models are actually in excellent agreement right now. They could easily shift or lose agreement but right I think it'd be foolish to bet against something like this:

577. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:


Without even looking at anything, I'm going to bet $20 on a tendency toward recurvature. This pattern has been extremely persistent to the point where I can almost track these things with a blindfold.


Let's wait for the 00z and the 12z runs of the GFS.
Quoting Gorty:


Let's wait for the 00z and the 12z runs of the GFS.


I'm serious. I'll make a wager with whoever wants to. Winner gets 20 bucks. I'm that confident this thing will recurve.
579. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm serious. I'll make a wager with whoever wants to. Winner gets 20 bucks. I'm that confident this thing will recurve.


The NAO begs to differ :p
I hope it doesn't rain Halloween weekend. My other dog worked so hard on her costume. I'm afraid it might rust...

Quoting Gorty:


The NAO begs to differ :p


NAO, ENSO, MJO, it doesn't matter. Until I see concrete proof suggesting otherwise, the US is protected by a magical hurricane barrier.

Any takers? Offer still stands. :P
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I hope it doesn't rain Halloween weekend. My other dog worked so hard on her costume. I'm afraid it might rust...



I wanted to say "I love you" in the voice of Han Solo, but realized it'd be too... disgusting. How about I just call it sexy instead? Will that work?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
843 PM AST SUN OCT 21 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE OFFSHORE IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN. A FEW WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED FOR
THE NIGHT DEEPER INTO PUERTO RICO. SOUNDING REVEALED DRIER AIR
ABOVE 500 MB BUT STILL MOIST WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.13
INCHES. EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. DISCUSSION BELOW STANDS. NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS...GFS HOLDS STEADY ON DEVELOPMENT BUT CONTINUES TO FLIP
FLOP ON MOVEMENT OF WAVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...NEVERTHELESS ALL SOLUTIONS BRING INCREASED SHOWERS LATER
THIS WEEK. WILL NOT RE-ISSUE ZONES.
Quoting KoritheMan:


NAO, ENSO, MJO, it doesn't matter. Until I see concrete proof suggesting otherwise, the US is protected by a magical hurricane barrier.

Any takers? Offer still stands. :P

Hey I'll take $20, but I am kinda on the recurve bandwagon but I am definitely keeping an eye on a hurricane to nor'easter scenario.
if we get S and T storm from 90 and 99L i wounder if the gfs show any storms fourming for nov? i think we olny need two more name storms
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
As complicated as the overall situation is, the models are actually in excellent agreement right now. They could easily shift or lose agreement but right I think it'd be foolish to bet against something like this:


They even show a northward/north-northwestward bend towards the end, which is to be expected given the pattern.

I see this avoiding a landfall for North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, but it will definitely be hard-pressed to get the storm to miss the Northeast states if it takes the trajectory it should following the pattern. However, as always, timing will be the final determinant.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey I'll take $20, but I am mostly on the recurve bandwagon but keeping an eye on a hurricane to nor'easter scenario.


I'm serious. If you promise to give me $20 if I win, I will promise in the same vein to give you $20 if you win.

From the sound of things though, you're in the recurvature camp also, which makes any sort of wager between us impossible.

Offer still stands.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wanted to say "I love you" in the voice of Han Solo, but realized it'd be too... disgusting. How about I just call it sexy instead? Will that work?


Kori...You are way too cool.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm serious. If you promise to give me $20 if I win, I will promise in the same vein to give you $20 if you win.

From the sound of things though, you're in the recurvature camp also, which makes any sort of wager between us impossible.

Offer still stands.


Loser sends the money to Portlight.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm serious. If you promise to give me $20 if I win, I will promise in the same vein to give you $20 if you win.

From the sound of things though, you're in the recurvature camp also, which makes any sort of wager between us impossible.

Offer still stands.

You know what, I'll go on the other side just for the sake of a bet. I can seriously make $20 back in a heartbeat if I lose. So I guess I'm in and I promise.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Loser sends the money to Portlight.


Deal.
Small blob in the Bahamas.

Always keep an eye on the ensembles..

Meh...

Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I'm on Grand Cayman Island right now, and it has gotten breezy but nothing too bad. 


Nice breezy night here for sure, I'm enjoying the cool down.


Intensity models down quite a bit.

599. beell
Quoting Grothar:
Small blob in the Bahamas.



Can you drag that over to 99L?

Anyone else watching this weather modification segment on Discovery?
Quoting Slamguitar:
Anyone else watching this weather modification segment on Discovery?


I don't have cable in my room, so no. Anything interesting (read: scientifically sound) to report?
Quoting Grothar:
Small blob in the Bahamas.



The way it's heading East, looks like I may get Kablobered...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't have cable in my room, so no. Anything interesting (read: scientifically sound) to report?


Very weak science, it's mostly for entertainment, so I don't expect them to go over all the research and journals, lol.
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for Invest99L @ 22Oct.12am
14.6n76.9w was reevaluated &altered
14.6n76.8w-14.6n77.7w are now the most recent positions

CDD-PuertoLempira :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: KIN-Kingston

The longest line is a straightline projection through 99L's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline.
99L's center was headed toward passage over the second largest island in the MiskitoCays
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't have cable in my room, so no. Anything interesting (read: scientifically sound) to report?

I am in for the bet thing you mentioned, just if you didn't see. I'll go to the other side for the sake of the bet, even though I am more in the middle with a slight lean to a recurve for now.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am in for the bet thing you mentioned, just if you didn't see. I'll go to the other side for the sake of the bet, even though I am more in the middle with a slight lean to a recurve for now.


I didn't see it. So it's a done deal then.

I also thought about doing a deal for next year's hurricane season and say that 80% of all named storms avoid the United States mainland once again, but I'm not quite so confident of that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't see it. So it's a done deal then.

I also thought about doing a deal for next year's hurricane season and say that 80% of all named storms avoid the United States mainland once again, but I'm not quite so confident of that.

'Cause you know you'd be proven wrong...again.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

'Cause you know you'd be proven wrong...again.


I never lose.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't see it. So it's a done deal then.

I also thought about doing a deal for next year's hurricane season and say that 80% of all named storms avoid the United States mainland once again, but I'm not quite so confident of that.

I wouldn't go that far as we aren't even done with this hurricane season. But I am all in and ready for this bet.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I never lose.

So when you lose this bet then what happens, I never lose.
Quoting wxchaser97:

So when you lose this bet then what happens, I never lose.


Well I won't lose, so...

Weather Channel’s Parent Company Is Renamed

via nytimes.com

The Weather Channel Companies became the Weather Company, signifying a shift to media outside television.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


The way it's heading East, looks like I may get Kablobered...



I liked this not because you may have a storm, but due to the use of "Kablobered" :)

I do like that word.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I won't lose, so...

Oh but that is where you are wrong. We will see who wins when 99L gets north. Chat?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Oh but that is where you are wrong. We will see who wins when 99L gets north. Chat?


Cody longing to be insulted already, eh? Sad.

Be there after I blog. Done shortly.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Cody longing to be insulted already, eh? Sad.

Be there after I blog. Done shortly.

Lol, MSWX is in too so Cody is getting it tonight. I finished one blog, Link, and I'm working on another. You will realize why two are coming out in such a short time once you read it.
612 CaicosRetiredSailor Weather Channel's Parent Company Is Renamed -- via nytimes.com
The Weather Channel Companies became the Weather Company, signifying a shift to media outside television.


Should rename it the Weather Canal... to reflect the evergrowing Anthropogenic influence.
618. JLPR2
90L is tiny.

Quoting JLPR2:
90L is tiny.



Remember Michael?
620. JRRP
90L could be a surprise
Quoting JRRP:
90L could be a surprise

It's not a surprise if you're thinking about it.
00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 012 hr 084
00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 024 hr 084
00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 036 hr 084
00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 048 hr 084
00z Surface Analysis.

00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 060 hr 084
00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 072 hr 084
00Z NAM (non-tropical model) hr 084 hr 084 final
Interesting Precipitation plot over the next 84hrs.

One thing is clear you'll need a WU secret decoder ring to figure out where and what 99L is up to tonight. That being said, I wish all a goodnight. Tomorrow is a another day.
Quoting gordydunnot:
One thing is clear you'll need a WU secret decoder ring to figure out where and what 99L is up to tonight. That being said, I wish all a goodnight. Tomorrow is a another day.


just got to wait till tomorrow afternoon
if its not a go by then

well

i would become apprehensive
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


just got to wait till tomorrow afternoon
if its not a go by then

well

i would become apprehensive


It's possible it doesn't significantly develop until reaching the western Atlantic in a few days.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I won't lose, so...

Hey Kori, what's up with the new icon you have? It's cool, but who is it supposed to be?
00z gfs is up next
638. JLPR2
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Remember Michael?


Yep. Little ones under the right conditions could explode.

Didn't mean "little" as a bad thing.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Doesn't look like a decoupling to me:




That's a side by side comparison of the lower troposphere (top image) and the upper troposphere (bottom image). It's very obvious where the circulation center is, and there is no apparent displacement. I don't see anything akin on satellite pictures either.

Now I'm not trying to downplay your analysis or anything. You are an excellent poster. I'm just not seeing your point this time.
My post was referring to the GFS model at 39hrs, it had absolutely nothing to do with current analysis lol

beell had asked what was it that the models were seeing that dragged the storm out of the Caribbean. So that post was explaining the model evolution and what allowed the storm to be pulled out of the Caribbean. I thought it was pretty clear what I was responding to, but maybe I lost you with the length of my post lol
Quoting JLPR2:
90L is tiny.


Just did my daily & very detailed Atlantic tropical update. I think it is extremely likely that 90-L becomes Sandy in the next 24 hrs...and I also explain how 99-L became less organized today....
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's possible it doesn't significantly develop until reaching the western Atlantic in a few days.
true enough but we should begin to see some significant convective feedback by tomorrow in the mid to late afternoon maybe in by late am

i like the new avatar by the way
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm serious. I'll make a wager with whoever wants to. Winner gets 20 bucks. I'm that confident this thing will recurve.

I bet 20 bucks that next year we get an above average chance of a major hurricane strike on the United States (if not this, then at least a threat or two of this happening). And i will bet one million bucks that if nothing happens next year, that with a certainty of 100%, 2014 will see a major hurricane on the US coast. I say this because in history's past, the midpoints in every decade going back a century have seen major hits on the United States.
00Z GFS hr 000 hr 144
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
true enough but we should begin to see some significant convective feedback by tomorrow in the mid to late afternoon maybe in by late am

i like the new avatar by the way


What makes you believe so?
00Z GFS hr 012 hr 144
646. JRRP
JA
00Z GFS hr 024 hr 144
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What makes you believe so?
its to stop moving and sit a bit then drift backbuilding off the heat of the water
00Z GFS hr 036 hr 144
00Z GFS hr 048 hr 144
99L is on the up again.

00Z GFS hr 057 hr 144
00Z GFS hr 066 hr 144
Quoting Slamguitar:
99L is on the up again.



Big flareup of convection in the SW.

00Z GFS hr 075 hr 144
Good night blog, 99L reminds me of Ernesto, who kept taking FOREVER to decide whether or not he wanted to be a hurricane.
00Z GFS hr 084 hr 144
00Z GFS hr 093 hr 144
00Z GFS hr 102 hr 144
00Z GFS hr 111 hr 144
00Z GFS hr 120 hr 144
114 hours

00Z GFS hr 132 hr 144
Quoting sunlinepr:

Looking at your loop, 99L looks to be breaking up. Could it happen?
Doesn't look like it wants to move much KEEP.
not as strong this run
Quoting Grothar:
Doesn't look like it wants to move much KEEP.
i hope this is not another 2012 zombie storm
00Z final GFS hr 144 hr 144
Looks to me to be heading for Bermuda based on 0-150hrs
I finished my Berkley Blog, here it is. It is a forecast for my local area based on models and official forecasts, this is my 50th blog.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i hope this is not another 2012 zombie storm


Well I posted the 114 hours, look at the 144



00Z GFS hr 171 extended
00Z GFS hr 180 extended
Quoting AussieStorm:

Looking at your loop, 99L looks to be breaking up. Could it happen?


It went to sleep, will keep on going tomorrow,
looks like all i have is cold air thats fine by me

as it moves out to sea
Latest coordinates

14.6N 77.7W OZ
00Z GFS hr 192 extended
00Z GFS hr 204 extended


and then its gone
iam gone see ya after 8 am
could be a east coaster
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 22 2012
=====================================

A low pressure area has developed over southeast Arabian Sea. It may concentrate into a depression
during next 48 hours.
Fresh OSCAT maybe a little south of where 90L is marked on surface map..


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220555
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
99L up to 80%
687. TXCWC
EURO a lot further west than 0z GFS tonight:



688. 7544
now 99 is starting to get lots more convection
689. TXCWC
ummmm...0Z EURO looks alot like GFS DID EARLIER IN IT'S 12Z RUN



here was the 12Z GFS

690. TXCWC
and NOT OUT TO SEA...again very similar to GFS 12Z:



and once again the 12Z GFS


691. TXCWC
needless to say 0z EURO would be a tri-city disaster...THANKFULLY THIS IS ONLY 1 RUN AND STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT...however is a little bit concerning as GFS was showing a similar scenario earlier
OK, here are my guesses as to what will happen with 99L:

1. The push of dry air from the north will keep the system disorganized and push it into Central America as a tropical wave.

2. 99L becomes a tropical depression as it moves over Cuba. It will exit over far eastern Cuba and then develop into a tropical storm as it moves at least 100 miles to the east of the Bahamas

3. It will finally become a hurricane north of 30N, just as all the other major hurricanes have this year.

This is not going to become an east coast storm. All the models are still moving around with each run because we still don't have a closed low and a real COC. I'll start believing anything other than my three scenarios when the models really have something to work with. The major convection is still mostly land based in Venezuala and Columbia, moving into the Caribbean from there. Until 99L can pull away from South America and develop a closed circulation, I'm not buying the East Coast doomcasting.
693. TXCWC
Quoting sar2401:
OK, here are my guesses as to what will happen with 99L:

1. The push of dry air from the north will keep the system disorganized and push it into Central America as a tropical wave.

2. 99L becomes a tropical depression as it moves over Cuba. It will exit over far eastern Cuba and then develop into a tropical storm as it moves at least 100 miles to the east of the Bahamas

3. It will finally become a hurricane north of 30N, just as all the other major hurricanes have this year.

This is not going to become an east coast storm. All the models are still moving around with each run because we still don't have a closed low and a real COC. I'll start believing anything other than my three scenarios when the models really have something to work with. The major convection is still mostly land based in Venezuala and Columbia, moving into the Caribbean from there. Until 99L can pull away from South America and develop a closed circulation, I'm not buying the East Coast doomcasting.


I agree in so far as we are talking about an undeveloped system and still a week out from any east coast hit...problem is CMC, EURO, AND GFS (at least the 12Z run) SHOW VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO OF SANDY GETTING CAUGHT UNDER A BLOCKING HIGH...so to say that this will not be an east coast storm is just as rash a thing to say RIGHT NOW as saying it will be...RIGHT NOW BOTH scenarios (east coast hit/no east coast hit) are on the board as viable options
Unless I'm seeing things ...





695. TXCWC
Where would this SNOWSTORM rank all time??



Quoting TXCWC:
Where would this SNOWSTORM rank all time??





Worst ever by a long shot?
Quoting TXCWC:
Where would this SNOWSTORM rank all time??





Is that snow, in extreme Northern Florida? In October...

Welp, models looking good for Florida, Bad for the NE CONUS at the moment. See how they flip-flop today.
Good morning/evening, all. If I hadn't been following 99L I would have known something was up due to the number of comments since yesterday.
GOOD MORNING FOLKS!.......................
GFS has not moved from this solution/track for 99...................................GFS at 72 hours
Good morning. Looks like 99L is continuing to gradually organize:



Also looks like we could see a classic Euro/GFS showdown with this after the Euro brought it to the US in its 0z run while the GFS continues to shift further east. I'm heavily inclined to believe the GFS at this point as the Euro has been inconsistent and the overall pattern does not favor significant US impacts right now.
Another day of "model roulette"!

This may end up epic! Time will tell.
Good morning everyone, I see 99L and 90L are looking better. It should still take a day or so for 99L to become a depression but the chance was raised by the NHC to 80%.
Umm seeing some of the model runs from the last page.... I'd rather not have a strong hurricane at my doorstep in the NE at the moment.......
Speaking of the GFS, the 06z run develops a hurricane but, yet again, sends it out to sea after a brush with Florida. It also doesn't do as much with 90L as it previously has.
Everyone have a great Monday! Be interesting to see what the models say this afternoon when I get home.
Quoting Doppler22:
Umm seeing some of the model runs from the last page.... I'd rather not have a strong hurricane at my doorstep in the NE at the moment.......


I want snow! But I do think that this situation is gonna be interesting to follow.
The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF all make 99L into a hurricane north of the Caribbean islands. They are generally to the east of Fl and just to the east of the Bahamas. After that they either send it out to sea, take it to the NE or even farther inland, or the run stops.
713. MahFL
Quoting wxchaser97:
The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF all make 99L into a hurricane north of the Caribbean islands. They are generally to the west of Fl and just to the west of the Bahamas. After that they either send it out to sea, take it to the NE or even farther inland, or the run stops.


You mean east of Florida ?
714. MahFL
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">


That image is curently only updating every 3 hours.
Convection has finally fired over 99L's low-level center. If it can persist and build, we may have a tropical depression later today.

Quoting MahFL:


You mean east of Florida ?

I meant east, sorry I'll fix that.
Area in the EPAC remains at 20%.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
The 4 to 5 day rain on HPC
I'm going to school, be everyone. It will be interesting to see how 99L handled the day when I get back.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Florida needs to brace for this one! History vs the models. Its on!
Quoting wxchaser97:
The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF all make 99L into a hurricane north of the Caribbean islands. They are generally to the east of Fl and just to the east of the Bahamas. After that they either send it out to sea, take it to the NE or even farther inland, or the run stops.


Yeah, latest GFS has 99L staying way off shore the U.S.
ECMWF 00z run is insane, it's showing 99L becoming a nor'easter with a pressure of 954 mb. To give an example, though it wasn't a nor'easter, the 1993 Storm of the Century only had a pressure of 960mb.


Pepto Bismol..$5.95..Ibuprofen..$6.10..CMC killing Halloween..priceless





Models are showing quite the major coldfront moving through Florida by 216 hours.


Just because the 06z GFS operational is out to the NE, the ensembles arent..expect a shift back west with them







99L - Perhaps it would confuse modelers more, if I split in half and sent one side to the SW and the other to the NE! Yeah, lets do that!
Close shave for Florida in this image from the Euro, right off our coast.
When South Meets North - The Evolving Scenarios
Posted by: bnorcross, 12:13 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is getting better organized... and is close to tropical depression status. The upper-air pattern is conducive for it to develop into a tropical storm and perhaps even a Cat 1 hurricane this week. It will likely be "Sandy", though there is a disturbance some 700 miles northeast of the Leewards that has a slight chance of beating it out. The next name would be "Tony".

The best computer forecast models - the American (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) - tell the same story for the next few days... the tropical storm brings extremely heavy rainfall to the northern Caribbean islands midweek. The strengthening storm - either a strong tropical storm or a hurricane - then moves through the Bahamas Wednesday through Friday.

The main effect in the U.S. in this scenario is an extended stretch of windy weather along the Florida east coast causing high surf, beach erosion, and some high-tide flooding.

Beyond that, the models are telling a different story. The GFS takes the tropical system out to sea, like tropical systems are supposed to do in October, and a strong kink in the northern jet stream spins up an separate nor'easter-like system off Long Island a week from now.

The European mixes the tropical system with the northern jet-stream energy and creates a mega winter storm across parts of the northeast back to the Great Lakes.

It's a crazy pattern, but these very sharp kinks in the jet stream caused when a big blocking high develops in the Atlantic are how oddball scenarios develop. For now we stay tuned. No doubt it will change again a number of times. Our main immediate focus is on the Caribbean and the potential for life-threatening rainfall across the northern islands.
Let me know when fall starts, lows in mid 70s and highs in low 90s here with very high humidity, havent turned my ac off since March. October has also been very dry here in Texas.
Probably a really dumb question, but how are invests numbered?
Quoting Eng1n3rd:
Probably a really dumb question, but how are invests numbered?
From 90L to 99L. It repeats every season.
Quoting Eng1n3rd:
Probably a really dumb question, but how are invests numbered?

Starts with the number 90, goes to 99, and then repeats. The "L at the end is for Atlantic, the "E" is for East Pacific, and "C" is for Central Pacific.


This is 7+ hours old, but shows where circulation was last night.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Starts with the number 90, goes to 99, and then repeats. The "L at the end is for Atlantic, the "E" is for East Pacific, and "C" is for Central Pacific.


why L is for the Atlantic..?.shouldn't be A. E for Epac and C for Cpac and W for Wpac
AL, 99, 2012102212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 779W, 25, 1003, LO

AL, 90, 2012102212, , BEST, 0, 213N, 515W, 30, 1009, DB,
You are right of course, Tropicalanalystwx13, but would it make more sense to start with # 1 and proceed from there? It would allow easily for one to see out of all the invests, how many got named. That would be interesting.--What percentage got named.
The Euro and CMC want to phase a Mega trough( one that was negatively tilted and had a 100+ kt jet streak) with a cat 2 hurricane and plow it into the NE.
Gulp.

I'm tending to lean toward their representation of the trough too because the Euro, while not picking up on everything as soon as the GFS has following its update, still has been far better at forecasting trough timing and amplitude within 200hrs or so.

I also would like to see a super storm but thats another story.



6Z GFS takes the storm outta sea....curious.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The Euro and CMC want to phase a Mega trough( one that was negatively tilted and had a 100+ kt jet streak) with a cat 2 hurricane and plow it into the NE.
Gulp.

I'm tending to lean toward their representation of the trough too because the Euro, while not picking up on everything as soon as the GFS has following its update, still has been far better at forecasting trough timing and amplitude within 200hrs or so.

I also would like to see a super storm but thats another story.



that would get rid of all the leaves and the nice fall colors even the trees themselves...lol
Still very uncertain at this time frame:

AT THIS TIME RANGE WE MUST EXPECT THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN PHASED AND UNPHASED SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
POLAR JET /ITS AMPLITUDE AND TILT/ AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY COMPLEX AND OFFERS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE. THUS
MODELS WILL UNLIKELY RESOLVE THESE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS UNTIL
SOMETIME FRI OR SAT.
Good morning

Only time for one post for now. The repositioning of 99L down to 13.7 ( see Oscat pass which confirms this ) raises an interesting question as to how, if at all, this affects the next set of model runs. The farther South 99L gets to the stronger the trough would need to be to pull it up and out to the NE.

This may also affect both the track and intensity forecasts.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Only time for one post for now. The repositioning of 99L down to 13.7 ( see Oscat pass which confirms this )raises an interesting question as to how, if at all, this affects the next set of model runs. The farther South 99L gets to the stronger the trough would need to be to pull it up and out to the NE.

This may also affect both the track and intensity forecasts.
Location is reminding me of Paloma. BTW, good morning.
I'm in Grand Cayman and the breezes have picked up for sure...nothing too intense or out of the ordinary but I think we will see some rain and breezy conditions next 24-48 hrs.
HPC 5 day precip map
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Still very uncertain at this time frame:

AT THIS TIME RANGE WE MUST EXPECT THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN PHASED AND UNPHASED SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
POLAR JET /ITS AMPLITUDE AND TILT/ AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY COMPLEX AND OFFERS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE. THUS
MODELS WILL UNLIKELY RESOLVE THESE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS UNTIL
SOMETIME FRI OR SAT.


fri or sat? thats cutting it close..
733 ncstorm: When South Meets North - The Evolving Scenarios
Posted by:
[Bryan Norcross]...on October 22, 2012

On the one hand, THANKS for bringing his newest blog to my attention. On the other hand...
...couldn't plus ya cuz it's really BAD netiquette to repost someone else's blog in its entirety (and a copyright violation to post more than snippets*)

* But intellectual property law is written mostly by crooks mostly for the benefit of crooks, so the non-compliance with standards of politeness bothers me in a way that piracy doesn't.
Quoting ncstorm:


Pepto Bismol..$5.95..Ibuprofen..$6.10..CMC killing Halloween..priceless







thats a super negatively tilted trough it phases into, lol at the 540 line.
If only some of that precip could get to GA and it could be january.
We are supposed to get our first frost(and first 30s) possibly following this next cold front in 7-10 days.
Quoting aspectre:
733 ncstorm: When South Meets North - The Evolving Scenarios Posted by: [Bryan Norcross]...on October 22, 2012

On the one hand, THANKS for bringing his newest blog to my attention.
On the other hand, couldn't plus ya cuz it's really BAD netiquette to repost someone else's blog in its entirety (and a copyright violation to post more than snippets... but intellectual property law is written mostly by crooks mostly for the benefit of crooks, so the non-compliance with standards of politeness bothers me in a way that piracy doesn't)


I got that from FACEBOOK..as it was written on facebook..not from WU..he does posts elsewhere besides WU..
Quoting ncstorm:


fri or sat? thats cutting it close..


Models typically dont resolve a very fluid situation till very close. Sat should still be 2-3 days.
This could become like Debby, a hair away from going to sea or phasing into a big storm for the NE.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Models typically dont resolve a very fluid situation till very close. Sat should still be 2-3 days.
This could become like Debby, a hair away from going to sea or phasing into a big storm for the NE.


Interesting week indeed..

Okay guys will be back later..have fun
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Only time for one post for now. The repositioning of 99L down to 13.7 ( see Oscat pass which confirms this ) raises an interesting question as to how, if at all, this affects the next set of model runs. The farther South 99L gets to the stronger the trough would need to be to pull it up and out to the NE.

This may also affect both the track and intensity forecasts.


That may be, or possibly to hit the E US it needs to get as far north as possible before the trough gets there, so as to be too far up to get turned away, but im not sure.

So either going south puts the US in more or less danger.
Bold statement I made, I know.
AL, 99, 2012102212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 779W, 25, 1003, LO

no renumbering yet???
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AL, 99, 2012102212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 779W, 25, 1003, LO

no renumbering yet???


not yet but looking at the visible this is real close to a TD.
Good morning everyone. Well I see by the satelitte map the two storms the models predicted are showing up! I see that the models are predicting a northern movement, perhaps drawn by that front that has moved through the East coast. I just hope they are correct! We don't need another Wilma!
Are the models still showing an east coast brush or landfall? or have they changed?
Quoting AztecCe:
Are the models still showing an east coast brush or landfall? or have they changed?
They have moved more east now.Hopefully it keeps moving more east..
The thing looks like its gaining convection in its center.

I think it will be classed as a TD by later today.

Good morning all!

MET SERVICE OF JAMAICA

NEWS RELEASE

October 22, 2012 at 6 a.m..

*** SEVERE WEATHER ALERT***

***LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMAICA LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW***


The Meteorological Service has issued a severe weather alert, effective until 5 a.m. tomorrow.

The area of Low Pressure is southeast of Jamaica and drifts slowly toward the west today and tonight. It is expected to develop into a Tropical Storm over the next day or so as it remains southwest of Jamaica. The system passes over the island Tuesday night as it moves toward the north northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the island which may be heavy at times while strong gusty winds are also likely over Jamaica, beginning tomorrow morning.

In view of this projection, it may be necessary to issue an evacuation notice for marine areas later today. All fishers on the cays and banks are, therefore, urged to hasten preparations with a view to evacuate at short notice, if required.

With weather conditions expected to deteriorate due to the passage of the developing system, marine operators are urged not to venture far from the mainland.

All interests are urged to pay special attention to subsequent news releases from the Meteorological Service.

rar
Quoting ncstorm:


Pepto Bismol..$5.95..Ibuprofen..$6.10..CMC killing Halloween..priceless






I don't think I've ever seen a low bomb out that quickly in reality. 995-959mb in one day? (I've seen some rare hurricanes do it, but never a baroclinic low)
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The thing looks like its gaining convection in its center.

I think it will be classed as a TD by later today.



It will be.
I personally don't want to be affected by a storm named...Sandy..I can see the Spongebob jokes now!.But 99L appears to be no laughing matter according to the models.
Timing Timing Timing

This system 99L would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK EARLIER.

This system 99L would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK LATER.

Timing Timing Timing

Some deep digging trough action going on here, as the CPC takes excerpts from all seven major models and suggests strong trough action going on here. How in the world can this system (if it even develops; but most likely will) affect Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard? Answer: It can't.



This system will only be a threat to Jamaica, Cayman, Cuba, and the Bahamas where is could be destructive with winds and heavy rain, and even possibly hurricane conditions. CONUS--I think you are out of the woods with this one.

Timing Timing Timing

Disclaimer: This is from an amatuer bloggers opinion. Please heed NWS and NHC warnings and outlooks.
Does 99L going more south or north currently, and therefore turning to go north sooner or later respectivley, increase or decrease the chance that this hits the US?
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Timing Timing Timing

This system 99L would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK EARLIER.

This system 99L would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK LATER.

Timing Timing Timing

Some deep digging trough action going on here, as the CPC takes excerpts from all seven major models and suggests strong trough action going on here. How in the world can this system (if it even develops; but most likely will) affect Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard? Answer: It can't.



This system will only be a threat to Jamaica, Cayman, Cuba, and the Bahamas where is could be destructive with winds and heavy rain, and even possibly hurricane conditions. CONUS--I think you are out of the woods with this one.

Timing Timing Timing

Disclaimer: This is from an amatuer bloggers opinion. Please heed NWS and NHC warnings and outlooks.

It's definitely possible this system hits the United States, it's not as impossible as you think. If the storm makes it off the SE coastline while the trough is entering the Great Lakes, it will cause the storm to track northward and then bend to the northwest as it is absorbed into the circulation. It has happened before, don't think it can't now.

I'm not saying it will, but it definitely CAN happen.
Future Sandy is giving me the shady eye over here...
Both systems are close to tropical depression status.



Quoting TomballTXPride:
Timing Timing Timing

This system 99L would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK EARLIER.

This system 99L would have been a threat to either Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard if this was A WEEK LATER.

Timing Timing Timing

Some deep digging trough action going on here, as the CPC takes excerpts from all seven major models and suggests strong trough action going on here. How in the world can this system (if it even develops; but most likely will) affect Florida or anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard? Answer: It can't.



This system will only be a threat to Jamaica, Cayman, Cuba, and the Bahamas where is could be destructive with winds and heavy rain, and even possibly hurricane conditions. CONUS--I think you are out of the woods with this one.

Timing Timing Timing

Disclaimer: This is from an amatuer bloggers opinion. Please heed NWS and NHC warnings and outlooks.


Actually for late season storms such as this one to cause an impact on the eastern united states the trough is normally to blame. Th same mechanisims that cause a nor' easter to retrograte back into the coast are what causes the storm to be pulled north and west. Which is quite simple, storms go up ahead of the trough axis and if the axis is tilted from north west to southeast (negative tilt) the storm will go up and in. Not saying it will happen with this one just saying it can happen. Hugo(to some extent), Hazel, etc.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Both systems are close to tropical depression status.



I would like to see us make the run of 19 named storms again.So that would be 57 named storms in total over a three year run.Epic!.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's definitely possible this system hits the United States, it's not as impossible as you think. If the storm makes it off the SE coastline while the trough is entering the Great Lakes, it will cause the storm to track northward and then bend to the northwest as it is absorbed into the circulation. It has happened before, don't think it can't now.

I'm not saying it will, but it definitely CAN happen.


Hazel..

oops..I meant this one
Quoting washingtonian115:
I personally don't want to be affected by a storm named...Sandy..I can see the Spongebob jokes now!.But 99L appears to be no laughing matter according to the models.


Are you ready kids..

Im sorry I couldnt resist..LOL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Location is reminding me of Paloma. BTW, good morning.


Ugh. Let's hope not.
Quoting ncstorm:


Are you ready kids..

Im sorry I couldnt resist..LOL
Ah man!.Lol.I don't think the kids are ready to have their holloween taken away from them.
Looks like a TD.
I think the NHC is going to wait till recon goes in before its classified but its currently at TD status , to me looks like the models are going to shift to the left some
i think 94L may be a unname storm that will be added too the list at post season i think it was vary close
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Only time for one post for now. The repositioning of 99L down to 13.7 ( see Oscat pass which confirms this ) raises an interesting question as to how, if at all, this affects the next set of model runs. The farther South 99L gets to the stronger the trough would need to be to pull it up and out to the NE.

This may also affect both the track and intensity forecasts.


Thank you for posting this.

This is why it is important to realize that the computer models are very susceptible to change when there is a lack of a well defined surface circulation. The Euro may be onto something since it has a little slower movement out of the Caribbean vs the GFS. As a result the Euro allows the ridge to the NE of 99L to build in a little more and scoot 99L a little closer to Florida.

People need to remember that the computer models can and will change. Unfortunately, it looks like Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas have a very good chance of experiencing at least tropical storm conditions over the next few days. Residents in those areas need to keep a close eye on 99L.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like a TD.


I agree. The NHC likes to wait for recon to confirm, but I don't see why this shouldn't be named at 11 other than that. Recon may find TS winds in the squalls. Who knows?
"Aye Aye Captin"
I can't hear you "AYE,AYE Captin"
Ohhhh
Who lives in a Pineapple under the sea
"SpongeBob,Squarepants"
Absorbant and yellow and porous is he
"SpongeBob Squarepants"
If nautical nonsense be something you wish
"SpongeBob Squarepants"
The drop on the deck and flop like a fish
"SpongeBob Squarepants"
READY!
SpongeBob Squarepants
SpongeBob Squarepants
Spongebob Squarepants

Spongebob Sqaurepants

Ah Ahhh Ahahahahahah

(Flute noise).
Quoting watercayman:


Ugh. Let's hope not.


Winds gusty here today, started to pick up last night from the east.Will be interesting to see what the recon' flights reveal for an upgrade to TD status.
The FIM9 moves 99L over Jamaica and is a little more to the west than the other models. Looks like a slow mover too.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
I think the NHC is going to wait till recon goes in before its classified but its currently at TD status , to me looks like the models are going to shift to the left some
Don't say left please...I have never liked the left..
from my local NWS in Wilmington, NC

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WHILE THU/FRI WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
DRY...ALL EYES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN AND HOW IT EVOLVES UP THE EAST COAST. NHC
HAS PUT A 80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ON A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF
CUBA...AND THE MAJOR GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS FAR OUT THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN NEAR CUBA BY THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC SHOW SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AS WEAK
STEERING FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS. AT THE SAME
TIME...LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND DROP ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOW THESE TWO FEATURES
INTERACT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND HENCE WHAT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT IN THE CAROLINAS. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH (OF WHICH WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL ALREADY THIS SEASON) WOULD
SUPPORT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
..IF FEATURES DEVELOP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...AND HENCE THE INHERITED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS/POP FOR THE
WKND SEEM PLAUSIBLE. TEMPS FOR THE WKND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDS/PRECIP AS WELL...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS WITH WARMER MINS
ARE SHOWN AT PRESENT...AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THESE ATTM.

AT THE SAME TIME...CANNOT NEGATE THE MENTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
BENEATH THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WHICH WILL TRY TO WORK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE RELEVANT
THAN THE FRONT...BUT IF IT STAYS WELL OUT TO SEA THEN THE COLD FRONT
WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LATER
IF IT BECOMES HUNG UP DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE.
22/1145 UTC 20.5N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic
22/1145 UTC 14.8N 77.7W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic




90L is up too 2.0 i think we may see TD 19 today has well
797. afj3
Greetings! Question for the group: Which model is more reliable in this case with 99L, the GFS or the ECMWF? Or are they both good?
Here is what my local forecast by Capital weather Gang calls for next Sunday..

"We may start to feel the squeeze between a tropical system near or just of the east coast and a cold front approching from the west.I'll call for increasing clouds,a small chance of showers and highs near 70.But this outlook is highly subjective to change confidence--Low.

Post 799:CyberTed I would rather have a storm named Tony impacting me than Sandy.
Quoting Tazmanian:
22/1145 UTC 20.5N 51.8W T2.0/2.0 90L -- Atlantic
22/1145 UTC 14.8N 77.7W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic




90L is up too 2.0 i think we may see TD 19 today has well


I agree, watch for a renumber with 90L. That could very well beat 99L to TD status today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree, watch for a renumber with 90L. That could very well beat 99L to TD status today.



wont it be funny if 90L gets too sandy 1st and 99L takes tony
LOL!!!!

Has anyone seen this???

Quoting afj3:
Greetings! Question for the group: Which model is more reliable in this case with 99L, the GFS or the ECMWF? Or are they both good?

They are nearly equal in performance, although, the ECMWF holds the title for most reliable.
Quoting afj3:
Greetings! Question for the group: Which model is more reliable in this case with 99L, the GFS or the ECMWF? Or are they both good?
They are two best models and should always be considered. The GFS has performed very well this year though.
Quoting ncstorm:
LOL!!!!

Has anyone seen this???

Looks like 90L will make a 9 for us!.
Oh the westcasters will be in full force today. This is not going to be a southeast US event. As the trough digs later this week, it will keep the system either moving north or even northeast for a while. It won't be until the trough itself goes negative this weekend and the trough axis becomes NW - SE oriented over the SE US. It is thereafter that if the system is still "within reach" and hasn't already moved too far NE, then there is a chance that it could be pulled back NW towards the Mid - Atlantic and NE US. Way too many variables and most likely if there is some sort of NE US impact, it will be transitioning from tropical to more of a nor'easter type storm.
T.C.F.A
99L/INV/D/XX
MARK
13.89N/77.59W
807. afj3

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They are nearly equal in performance, although, the ECMWF holds the title for most reliable.
Thank you! Well I guess we can get used to some high surf here on Florida's East Coast if nothing else. Good for the surfers though hopefully erosion won't be too bad
Quoting afj3:

Thank you! Well I guess we can get used to some high surf here on Florida's East Coast if nothing else. Good for the surfers though hopefully erosion won't be too bad
But those rip currents will be such a pain as well.I suspect we'll see lots and lots of rescues if such an event was going to happen.
Quoting ncstorm:
LOL!!!!

Has anyone seen this???


We are NOT going through this again. :|
Quoting Chucktown:
Oh the westcasters will be in full force today. This is not going to be a southeast US event. As the trough digs later this week, it will keep the system either moving north or even northeast for a while. It won't be until the trough itself goes negative this weekend and the trough axis becomes NW - SE oriented over the SE US. It is thereafter that if the system is still "within reach" and hasn't already moved too far NE, then there is a chance that it could be pulled back NW towards the Mid - Atlantic and NE US. Way too many variables and most likely if there is some sort of NE US impact, it will be transitioning from tropical to more of a nor'easter type storm.



sometimes things can just happen

its to do what ever it wants

we are to show possible outcomes
breaks over bb at lunch
99L should be classified later this afternoon and should become Tropical Storm Sandy by tomorrow morning or perhaps sooner. Rapid Intensification cannot be ruled out based on high TCHP and decreasing shear. Based on this forecast, I expect 99L to be a Category 2 Hurricane prior to moving past Jamaica and Cuba.
90L should become TD 19 and Tropical Storm Tony by tomorrow afternoon and move NW-ward. 
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We are NOT going through this again. :|
Don't worry we'll have another storm to track at least so no "N" storm repeat again.She just wouldn't go away and made a strange track I tell ya she did...
We now have TD 18 according to the ATCF database (advisories likely to be initiated at 11AM)

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210221416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210221416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Nooo looks like 99L will become Sandy..kinda root'in for it to at least be Tony..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210221416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

90L should get the same treatment.
Quoting afj3:
Greetings! Question for the group: Which model is more reliable in this case with 99L, the GFS or the ECMWF? Or are they both good?


Here's model error for 99L so far. It has all the models just about except the ECMWF. AEMN (gfs), FIM9 (except the last run initialized way off), MRFO & Models starting with the letter T seem to be getting this one so far. You can plot these out on Google map through a link off that page too. They all take it right to Jamaica..
Hurricane Sandy,

RGB Loop