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98L organizing; September temperatures in the U.S. return to normal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2011

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and excellent spin. An ASCAT pass from 7:47 pm EDT last night showed that 98L had a moderately well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 - 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system's northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical storm, but most of them do show some development. NHC gave the disturbance a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. 98L's westward motion of 5 - 10 mph should bring the storm into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, though the models are not in strong agreement about the forward speed of the storm. The GFDL model brings 98L into the islands on Friday, while the NOGAPS model keeps the storm east of the islands through Tuesday. If 98L takes a more west-northwesterly path through northern Lesser Antilles, which has been the preferred track for tropical systems this year, the disturbance should encounter high wind shear in excess of 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands. However, if 98L takes a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm will miss seeing the high shear area that lies over the northern islands, and the storm would have more opportunity to strengthen. The most likely scenario I see at this point is for 98L to be a weak tropical storm on Saturday as it moves through the Lesser Antilles--but there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast.

September temperatures return to normal over the U.S.
The summer of 2011 was the second hottest in U.S. history, but September of 2011 is so far shaping up to be an average one for temperature. A series of cold fronts and cold-cored low pressure systems have moved southwards out of Canada this month, bringing typical amounts of cool air to the country. If you want to select dates for the start and end of the U.S. heat wave of 2011, the dates to pick would be May 20 - September 4. During the period May 20 - September 4, 2011, the number of daily record high temperatures at the 515 major airports in the U.S. exceeded the number of daily low temperature records every day but one. That's an astonishing 107 out of 108 days! Only July 15 had more record daily lows than highs during that 108-day period. I doubt one could find a similar stretch of days anytime in U.S. weather history where such a lopsided ratio of high temperature to low temperature records existed. For the 3-month summer period of June, July, and August, 2703 daily high temperature records were set, compared to 300 daily low temperature records--a ratio of 9-to-1. Not surprisingly, the summer of 2011 wound up as the hottest summer in 75 years in the U.S., and was only 0.1°F cooler than the all-time record hottest summer, during the Dust Bowl year of 1936. But so far this September, the ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records has been close to 1-to-1. There were 283 daily high temperature records set during the first sixteen days of September, and 246 low temperature records. Eight of the first sixteen days of September have seen the lows outnumber the highs, and eight have seen the highs outnumber the lows. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows a continuation of pretty normal weather over the U.S. for the rest of the month, and September temperatures will end up close to average.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thx Dr. M! I prefer normal.
Thanks doc
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON ROKE (T1115)
21:50 PM JST September 20 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Roke (940 hPa) located at 30.3N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
280 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 36.5N 139.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 46.7N 147.1E - Extratropical



Roke is an INCREDIBLE looking storm...
Curious that the weather is mimicing the events of the 30's, coincident with the financial storm. Can history repeat itself?
We have started getting some much needed rain here in NE Fl. Not flooding just gentle rain with ALOT of lightshows
unusual weather in many aspects...
which model solution do u buy for 98L

A GFS
B ECMWF
C NOSAPS
D GFDL
E HWRF
F CMC
Speaking of lopsided: for June, 2,731 daily high temperature records were broken (not tied), compared to just 263 daily low temperature records, for a ratio of 10.38:1. July was a bit more balanced, at 1,618 to 260, or 6.22:1. The truly lopsided month, however, was August, when 3,168 daily high temperature records were broken, against just 144 daily low temperature records, an astounding ratio of exactly 22:1. For the three summer months, the tally was 7,517 to 667, or 11.26:1, and for the entire year (January 1 through yesterday), that is 14,819 to 5,376, or 2.75:1. (For September, the balance stands at just 1,067 to 932, or 1.14-to-1.) (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/)

Old Invest 99L is tiny and its about to get out of some of the dry air and move into a moisture environment. Gotta see if it hangs together long enough to survive that long tho. Still a tight little spinner tho.

Just went back 365 days on my weather calendar, I have received 9.50 inches of rain since last Sept. 20. I should have around 35 inches during that time frame. 7.3 inches this year and 2.2 from Sept 20, 2010 to end of the year. After Tropical Storm Hermine gave us good rains on Sept. 7, 2010 the rains just stopped.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON ROKE (T1115)
21:50 PM JST September 20 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Roke (940 hPa) located at 30.3N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
280 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 36.5N 139.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 46.7N 147.1E - Extratropical



When did Al Roke become a typhoon?
as long as ex 99 blowing smoke it still has a bit of a chance its struggling again as for 98 seems as if its moving very slow and latest image seems as if moving north a bit could be the camera up in space adjusting
Quoting ackee:
which model solution do u buy for 98L

A GFS
B ECMWF
C NOSAPS
D GFDL
E HWRF
F CMC
The GFS or the GFDL...straight to Jam' LOL


Need to watch the tailend of the front that is centered thru the GOM. Could be a spinner develop in that area very quickly.
Quoting wxmobilejim:

That is like comparing apples to oranges of course you will most likely see more high temp. records broken than low temp. records in the summer because it is supposed to be hot. WOW some people amaze me in their trying to twist data to form into their own agendas.


Ya think..........LOL
Quoting wxmobilejim:

That is like comparing apples to oranges of course you will most likely see more high temp. records broken than low temp. records in the summer because it is supposed to be hot. WOW some people amaze me in their trying to twist data to form into their own agendas.



That is also like saying this as an example is the 5th hottest month. So could it not be the 75th coolest month also. Just showing the spin one can do if you want too.
The models for 98L seem to be wandering all over the place - but St Lucia seems to be in the sights at the moment ...

Brian
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON ROKE (T1115)
21:50 PM JST September 20 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Roke (940 hPa) located at 30.3N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
280 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 36.5N 139.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 46.7N 147.1E - Extratropical



Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON ROKE (T1115)
21:50 PM JST September 20 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Roke (940 hPa) located at 30.3N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
280 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 36.5N 139.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 46.7N 147.1E - Extratropical





My nephew is stationed at Yokasuka NAval Base and they are battening down the hatches. Looks like a beautiful storm on satellite.
over 4 inches of rain for eastern NC..will be interesting to see if something develops off the east coast..

Things are not looking good for Japan... Most of the towns in the Sanriku coast lost their seawalls from the tsunami and the coast sunk from the earthquake in March so any little storm surge will flood large portions of those coastal towns fighting to recover since March.

I am surprised Dr. Masters have not commented much about Typhoon Roke.
Quoting Tango01:
Things are not looking good for Japan... Most of the towns in the Sanriku coast lost their seawalls from the tsunami and the coast sunk from the earthquake in March so any little storm surge will flood large portions of those coastal towns fighting to recover since March.

I am surprised Dr. Masters have not commented much about Typhoon Roke.


Looks like its gonna ride the Coast from South to North. If it stays just off shore the Storm Surge will be huge all the North.
Quoting wxmobilejim:

That is like comparing apples to oranges of course you will most likely see more high temp. records broken than low temp. records in the summer because it is supposed to be hot. WOW some people amaze me in their trying to twist data to form into their own agendas.

To set a high temperature record means the temperature has to get hot enough to surpass the previous high temperature record (while, of course, setting a low temperature record means the temperature has to get cold enough to drop below the previous low temperature record). That's the situation regardless of season or geographical location; reaching a higher or lower temperature than ever before at a given station is a noteworthy event in and of itself.
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is also like saying this as an example is the 5th hottest month. So could it not be the 75th coolest month also. Just showing the spin one can do if you want too.

Well, that's quite an analogy. That's like saying the Super Bowl is a matchup between the 31st worst and 32nd worst teams in the NFL. ;-)
Things have not changed much with 97L the last few hrs. the satelite pictures indicate that the system continues to organise at a limited pace. there seems to signs of banding about to place in both the nort and soutn semi circles. The system is moving very slowly over very warm waters as well as very low wind shear which will help it to strenghn also. although most of the global models are at sea with the direction and intesity of 98L before it reaches the islands, my take is that the disturbance will move slightly north of due west and take the system into the central windward islands on sat as a weak tropical storm. one just has to look at the continuing west track of 99L which is to the northwest of 98L and determine it's future track
Quoting Neapolitan:

To set a high temperature record means the temperature has to get hot enough to surpass the previous high temperature record (while, of course, setting a low temperature record means the temperature has to get cold enough to drop below the previous low temperature record). That's the situation regardless of season or geographical location; reaching a higher or lower temperature than ever before at a given station is a noteworthy event in and of itself.

But in reality we do not know if it is an all time record. Now do we? We don't have records from 400 years ago do we? I love it when someone says it is the hottest day in the last 40 years. Well what about the 1 million+ years before that are you really sure that day is the hottest all time?
biowizard
you could be right 98L has it's sights on St Lucia, but i think it will pass in the channel between St Lucia and M artinique.
120 years of data records
4,540,000,000 years of earth
Quoting Chucktown:


Except the record that you are breaking, hot or cold, is based on the past 120 years of data. For example, the record high here in Charleston, SC today is 98 degrees set in 1942. What if in 1345, it hit 102 here. Data set is too small to deduct what is going on when it comes to climate change.
finally a good point as to the terribly small data set that dr. Masters keeps hyping. The earth is 4 billion years old to use a set of data collected over 120 years is not scientific or reasonable. Also our ability to collect accurate data has increased greatly over the last fifty years before that much of that data may be suspect.
Quoting TampaSpin:
COMPLETE Tropical UPDATE
Thanks for the update
Quoting Jax82:
120 years of data records
4,540,000,000 years of earth


Even the 120yrs sampling is so inaccurate.......its a joke honestly!
This obsession with perfect datasets is... interesting. Tell me, when was the last time we stuck a thermometer into the sun?
Quoting Chucktown:


Except the record that you are breaking, hot or cold, is based on the past 120 years of data. For example, the record high here in Charleston, SC today is 98 degrees set in 1942. What if in 1345, it hit 102 here. Data set is too small to deduct what is going on when it comes to climate change.


What period of data would you find reasonable to use as an indicator of climate?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, 30yrs makes a climate normal. According to most climate scientists, roughly a decade makes a duration to average out noise from solar cycles and other natural variations (weather vs. climate). According to statistics, the current rate of warming is statistically significant after roughly 15 years of data.

Why do you believe that these periods are not reasonable, and why do you believe that your period would be more reasonable than the ones determined by active scientists in the climate field?
Quoting Chucktown:


Except the record that you are breaking, hot or cold, is based on the past 120 years of data. For example, the record high here in Charleston, SC today is 98 degrees set in 1942. What if in 1345, it hit 102 here. Data set is too small to deduct what is going on when it comes to climate change.

Before this goes into another slug fest about global warming or climate change, I think (my opinion) was that Neapolitan was just quoting some facts about high temps that have been broken. I did not read anything into his post about climate change. I feel he was making an interesting observation regarding factual information about temps. And, thanks for that post.

Please guys, let's not start bickering today. Japan is facing a really bad situation with Typhoon Roke and those of us in S Fl, the Carib and gulf coast are intensely monitoring 98L.

Let's all just have a friendly tropical watching day. OK?
Quoting floodzonenc:


LOL!!! Never stops being funny!
there is a bit of teleconnection to the w pac for a landfaller in that region dont count it out
Quoting ScottLincoln:


What period of data would you find reasonable to use as an indicator of climate?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, 30yrs makes a climate normal. According to most climate scientists, roughly a decade makes a duration to average out noise from solar cycles and other natural variations (weather vs. climate). According to statistics, the current rate of warming is statistically significant after roughly 15 years of data.

Why do you believe that these periods are not reasonable, and why do you believe that your period would be more reasonable than the ones determined by active scientists in the climate field?


Truthfully, I don't care about records. Why even have records, just take what Mother Nature dishes out. Does it really matter? There is no "normal" when it comes to weather. Do you get dressed each morning based on what the temperature is supposed to be or what it is forecast to be that day?
Quoting Jax82:
120 years of data records
4,540,000,000 years of earth
ok.. let's just throw out every other form of data that scores upon scores of geologist, chemists, and field researchers have discovered about previous climate.. oh yeah, and that notion that we evoloved is truly preposterous as well. there's no human recorded data that i know of pre-dating ancient scriptures.. and they certainly didn't mention that!

i'd avoid sarcasm if i thought there was a line of communication open on the other end..
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Before this goes into another slug fest about global warming or climate change, I think (my opinion) was that Neapolitan was just quoting some facts about high temps that have been broken. I did not read anything into his post about climate change. I feel he was making an interesting observation regarding factual information about temps. And, thanks for that post.

Please guys, let's not start bickering today. Japan is facing a really bad situation with Typhoon Roke and those of us in S Fl, the Carib and gulf coast are intensely monitoring 98L.

Let's all just have a friendly tropical watching day. OK?


My sentiments exactly... only you said it better than I could!
Quoting Minnemike:
ok.. let's just throw out every other form of data that scores upon scores of geologist, chemists, and field researchers have discovered about previous climate.. oh yeah, and that notion that we evoloved is truly preposterous as well. there's no human recorded data that i know of pre-dating ancient scriptures.. and they certainly didn't mention that!

i'd avoid sarcasm if i thought there was a line of communication open on the other end..



exactly, there is no open line of communication on EITHER side of this. So why do you clowns keep bogging down the blog trying to convince the unconvinceable?


i wonder where the center is actually located well i think it is where they said last but is organising some the cloud pattern represents a bit of struggle in the upper air imo see how there are clouds loking as if they are tired but i think the key thing is for it to get of the monsoonal trof
Quoting cmahan:
This obsession with perfect datasets is... interesting. Tell me, when was the last time we stuck a thermometer into the sun?
its not the accuracy its the length . Does it not bother anyone that we talk about records over the last 120 years out of 4 billion?
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


i wonder where the center is actually located well i think it is where they said last but is organising some the cloud pattern represents a bit of struggle in the upper air imo see how there are clouds loking as if they are tired but i think the key thing is for it to get of the monsoonal trof
It seemed to have two centers there for a while...
Quoting BobinTampa:



exactly, there is no open line of communication on EITHER side of this. So why do you clowns keep bogging down the blog trying to convince the unconvinceable?



+1,000,000
This morning's ASCAT pass reveals that 98L has a large circulation and is gonna need to tighten up a bit before significant development can take place.
Obviously our weather records span a pretty laughable time frame when compared with the earth's geological time scale, but that isn't the point that is trying to be made here. If there is a run of records (# of cyclones, hot, cold, whatever) in the last 5 years of 120 years of data, that has a decent probability of indicating a trend. Not saying global warming is occurring, but you're just lying to yourself if you deny the importance of our weather records just because of the short time span.
Quoting Drakoen:
This morning's ASCAT pass reveals that 98L has a large circulation and is gonna need to tighten up a bit before significant development can take place.



yes that has been its problem all along
Quoting hydrus:
It seemed to have two centers there for a while...
possible it is kind of indicated on the vort maps
Quoting will40:



yes that has been its problem all along
And the longer it takes to pull together, the further into the Caribbbean Sea it will move.
Quoting Drakoen:
This morning's ASCAT pass reveals that 98L has a large circulation and is gonna need to tighten up a bit before significant development can take place.

Typical story of this season so far.
From Previous blog.

G'day all.
Well fire season has started with a bang. as of today, there is 47 bush fires burning in NSW.
2 are burning the Blue mountains west of Sydney. there is also a bush fire burning in the SW suburbs of Sydney that closed the main highway to Canberra and Melbourne. Today's weather conditions were very ugly and ripe for fire ignition. Sustained wind were 50km/h(31mph) gusting up to 80-100km/h(50-62mph). A almost completed sports Stadium in Woolongong south of Sydney has sustained damage and is on the verge of collapse.









This is what everyone in NSW was dreading, Last year there was only a few bush fires due to the inclement weather, and flooding. This has caused the undergrowth to become a cinder pot waiting to explode.

I will post more info when it comes to hand.


How is Texas and Florida going with there bush fires?
98L is trying to make up for it's predecessos and ramp up into a super storm watch out lol
.

More seriously, 98L please please please DONT ACT LIKE MARIA
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
possible it is kind of indicated on the vort maps


98L tried to eat up the vort of ex-97L but failed and now it seems to be leaving it behind and gaining a bit of latitude, trying to break away from the monsoonal trof and ITCZ where the remnants of 97L are trapped.

Once it finally breaks off it should be able to concentrate its convergence instead of getting the focus stolen by the ITCZ.
Here you go Aussie-sorry to hear you are in the same situation. Some of Texas has had rain this week but not any where near enough. 
By: Texas Forest Service
September 20, 2011 - Yesterday Texas Forest Service responded to 13 new fires for 174 acres.



· In the past seven days Texas Forest Service has responded to 91 fires for 15,405 acres.



· 250 of the 254 Texas counties are reporting burn bans.



· Daily detailed fire information can be found here or at inciweb.org.



New large fires from yesterday (more than 100 acres in timber, 300 acres in lighter fuels; or where homes were lost):



None.



Uncontained fires from previous days (more than 100 acres in timber, 300 acres in lighter fuels):



BASTROP COUNTY COMPLEX, Bastrop County. 34,068 acres, 95 percent
contained. A Type 3 organization took over management of the fire
yesterday afternoon. Crews and equipment continue to protect homes
within the perimeter. There is no fire burning outside the main
containment lines. An assessment team has confirmed 1,554 homes have
been destroyed on the large Bastrop fire and the Union Chapel Fire. Two
civilians were found dead as search crews went through the charred
subdivisions.



101 RANCH, Palo Pinto County. 6,555 acres, 95 percent contained. Crews
and aircraft continue to monitor the fire. Thirty-nine homes and nine
RVs have been reported destroyed. Crews continue to mop up and aircraft
are monitoring.


Quoting jpsb:
Dr Master frequently posts on the subject of Global Warming. A discussion on that topic is entirely appropriate here.


no where in the blog did I read GW..only temperature?? you guys take stuff and run with it!! Ricky is waiting on you!
Quoting floodzonenc:


If you feel the need to debate AGW... here's where you go! Otherwise shut the ... up.


you would think right??
Quoting fireflymom:

Any chance you can send me the link for that info please.
Quoting ncstorm:


no where in the blog did I read GW..only temperature?? you guys take stuff and run with it!! Ricky is waiting on you!


The blog subjects are tropical weather and/or whatever is discussed in today's blog. There is no climate change mentioned in today's blog.
Quoting Chucktown:


Truthfully, I don't care about records. Why even have records, just take what Mother Nature dishes out. Does it really matter? There is no "normal" when it comes to weather. Do you get dressed each morning based on what the temperature is supposed to be or what it is forecast to be that day?
Truthfully,

You have your opinion, I have my opinion, Nea has his opinion. Nea just mad an observation and has every right to state that opinion. He did not try to connect it to CC. You or someone else did that.
12z GFS 69 Hours

link for the Texas wildfires article  http://yubanet.com/usa/Texas-Wildfire-Update---Sep t-20-2011.php#.Tni5pexwulQ
Quoting jpsb:
Dr Master frequently posts on the subject of Global Warming. A discussion on that topic is entirely appropriate here.


Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

AGW/CC is not part of this blog. It's not not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of this individual blog entry.
78 Hours GFS

Jeez...

It can end up anywhere from: 10N to 25N.
90 Hours GFS

Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez...

It can end up anywhere from: 10N to 25N.



Leaning towards the southern route portrayed by the GFDL myself, ATM.



Afternoon All.
Quoting jpsb:
Well if the little girls that some times post here can not stand an adult discussion on one of the most important issues of the day there is always the ignore button.

Funny how we can talk about web browsers, droughts, dancing with the stars, fires, earth quakes, Sarah Palin, etc and no bodies panties get bunched up. But if the topic is AGW or really the lack of it, then it's THIS IS A TROPICAL WEATHER FORUM! Hypocrites.

The main reason, AGW causes so many problems in here it's not funny.
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez...

It can end up anywhere from: 10N to 25N.


Sorry for the caribbean-casters, it's more likely to go north than south..
Quoting jpsb:
Well if the little girls that some times post here can not stand an adult discussion on one of the most important issues of the day there is always the ignore button.

Funny how we can talk about web browsers, droughts, dancing with the stars, fires, earth quakes, Sarah Palin, etc and no bodies panties get bunched up. But if the topic is AGW or really the lack of it, then it's THIS IS A TROPICAL WEATHER FORUM! Hypocrites.


why would you want to discuss a topic that everyone dosent share your interest of GW..why not go to a blog where the topic is being discussed freely and openly? there are at least two feature blogs on the WU site that discuss climate change and GW but yet, you choose to post in here?? Why is that? Can you not hang in the other blogs?
Quoting TampaSpin:



I am certainly not advocating any discussion about Global Warming but, it is Weather and it is open for discussion in this blog i would think. This is a Weather Blog and i believe Global Warming is Weather i guess.......LOL......JMO



look if the chief himself writes about it in his personal blog i would think its open for discussion in here...whoever does not approve im sure you can find another blog..
Quoting jpsb:
And what do fires in Australia have to do with the topic of the day?

Nothing, I was just bringing info to ya'll.

why are people commenting on TYPHOON ROKE? It's not part of this blog but it is tropical. should it be banned?
Quoting CaribBoy:


Sorry for the caribbean-casters, it's more likely to go north than south..


I'm going to stay neutral and go with the TVCN, NHC style. xD

GFS changed quite a bit from yesterday.
GFS 111 Hours
Aussie, what is your take on Roke? I'm concerned about prior flood areas, and about passage over Fukushima Daiichi. Do you have a sense as to how reliable the current intensity forecast might be? Info is limited on WU.

98 looks like it may become an impressive storm over the next few days.

Thanks,
WTO
12Z GFS SHIFTED NORTHWARD....... LOL WHAT A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY



Very large spread in the BAMS and the BAMD
Quoting CaribBoy:
12Z GFS SHIFTER NORTHWARD....... LOL WHAT A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY


Yep North and probably out to sea...here we go...
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm going to stay neutral and go with the TVCN, NHC style. xD

GFS changed quite a bit from yesterday.


SURE
The 12z GFS model shows a track north of Puerto Rico for 98L "Ophelia"
Still sticking with my idea of a hard winter for the Eastern U.S. and that no African-Born storm will make it all the way across this year
i could go to the GW blog but would likely be talking to myself because they all are prolly in my iggy list
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Aussie, what is your take on Roke? I'm concerned about prior flood areas, and about passage over Fukushima Daiichi. Do you have a sense as to how reliable the current intensity forecast might be? Info is limited on WU.

98 looks like it may become an impressive storm over the next few days.

Thanks,
WTO

well i could see a EWRC taking place which will bump down Roke's wind speed but will allow it to grow larger.
126 Hours


135 hours
Hi, everyone Good afternoon, or morning, or night wherever you are from. What's the latest on 98L? Anyone think it will become a TD today?
NC coast 138 Hours


moves north 144 hours
111. jpsb
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nothing, I was just bringing info to ya'll.

why are people commenting on TYPHOON ROKE? It's not part of this blog but it is tropical. should it be banned?
I enjoy reading your posts about things going on down under. Please continue to do so. I was just saying .... ;)
Hi, everybody.... 2 second look in.... gotta give a whistle and a wow to Roke.... now THAT's a cyclone.....

Back later if time permits.

Quoting ncstorm:


yall cant have it both ways..when we object to GW talk when Dr. Masters post it, then you scream its the topic of the blog but when he clearly didnt state GW in the blog topic today, you want to twist it and say its related to weather..


Dude, who brought it up? Dr. Masters posted about temperature records. Neapolitan added more data about temperature records.

Then hysterics descended across the blog...
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
The 12z GFS model shows a track north of Puerto Rico for 98L "Ophelia"


I would think if 98L does not become Tropical Storm before reaching the Islands then it heads South into the Caribbean. Just my take tho.
For the record, I didn't "drag AGW" into this. In the final paragraph of today's blog entry, Dr. Masters commented on the "...lopsided ratio of high temperature to low temperature records..." in the United States this past summer, and I expanded on that comment by posting some accurate temperature data from a valid source. Period. I mentioned neither agendas, nor AGW, nor climate change, nor Al Gore, nor some government takeover of everything. Just temperature statistics. That's all. 'Twas others who picked up the non-existent football and ran wild with it.

Seriously, methinks some doth protest too much... ;-)
Quoting jpsb:
I enjoy reading your posts about things going on down under. Please continue to do so. I was just saying .... ;)

well. preliminary obs are pointing to another active cyclone season for Qld, and very active fire season for NSW. Today we got a taste of that. Sadly, 3 fires have been confirmed to of been lit deliberately. Btw, thanks.
Quoting wxmobilejim:

That is like comparing apples to oranges of course you will most likely see more high temp. records broken than low temp. records in the summer because it is supposed to be hot. WOW some people amaze me in their trying to twist data to form into their own agendas.
This is a very wrong assumption, but a few others have already explained that. Surpassing previous records (high or low) can happen in all seasons and usually cancel each other out if there are no significant deviations over a long period of time.
Quoting cmahan:


Dude, who brought it up? Dr. Masters posted about temperature records. Neapolitan added more data about temperature records.

Then hysterics descended across the blog...


The nastiness started with Post 17.
You guys just can't get a break

Link
Quoting Tango01:
Things are not looking good for Japan... Most of the towns in the Sanriku coast lost their seawalls from the tsunami and the coast sunk from the earthquake in March so any little storm surge will flood large portions of those coastal towns fighting to recover since March.

I am surprised Dr. Masters have not commented much about Typhoon Roke.

agree. it's going to be a mess. although, it is forecast to weaken as it interacts with land and moves north, am wondering about how much nuclear material will get dispersed as it travels past fukushima.
its funny that the lost post in ricky rood's blog is over 22 minutes ago..go figure??..maybe we should just post tropical weather discussion in that blog since nobody is in there posting..

236. PurpleDrank 4:07 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
For the record, I didn't "drag AGW" into this. In the final paragraph of today's blog entry, Dr. Masters commented on the "...lopsided ratio of high temperature to low temperature records..." in the United States this past summer, and I expanded on that comment by posting some accurate temperature data from a valid source. Period. I mentioned neither agendas, nor AGW, nor climate change, nor Al Gore, nor some government takeover of everything. Just temperature statistics. That's all. 'Twas others who picked up the non-existent football and ran wild with it.

Seriously, methinks some doth protest too much... ;-)


Totally agree with you Nea. The statements posted regarding any causation inferred from the information you and Dr. JM's provided were completely unwarranted (see #94) and uncalled for.
Dry air??? That will inhibit Roke. which is what I am wishing for.

Quoting daddyjames:


Totally agree with you Nea. The statements posted regarding any causation inferred from the information you and Dr. JM's provided were completely unwarranted (see #94) and uncalled for.


Nobody said Nea started anything..I myself was talking about the GW discussion period..its not the topic of the blog today..I specifically said Dr. Masters posted about temperature and then here come people who run with it and posts about climate change and whatever..did Nea posts about climate change or GW..no he didnt but his fellow bloggers did and thats who I was pointing at.
The most likely scenario I see at this point is for 98L to be a weak tropical storm on Saturday as it moves through the Lesser Antilles--but there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast.

uncertainty is a recipe for blog angst.
will check back at 2.
regarding people who annoy you, just iggy and move on. you can only control yourself.
129. rkay1
Why would you ever think otherwise?  This has been the pattern for the entire Atlantic Hurricane season.  This will be the pattern for the remainder of the season as well.  It will take perfect timing for a storm to get far enough West to affect CONUS (i.e.: Irene).  The Atlantic Hurricane season may not be official over as far as storm development but as far as direct hits on CONUS? -- It's over.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Yep North and probably out to sea...here we go...

if i remember correctly Maria was very shallow when approaching the islands but got picked up by a weakness when she was N of the Bahamas
Good morning

Just a post or two for now.

The models are little or no guidance now as to where 98L may go, assuming it develops which it appears to be doing. It has been essentially sitting in one area for over 24 hours and while quasi stationary or just crawling the rest of the upper air dynamics have been changing to its North and West which affect steering and intensity down the road. For that reason, every time the models run with an initializng position at or close to the same coordinates the extrapolated position out in time will change, sometimes dramatically, from run to run. We see this even when systems are on the move but it is more pronounced when one is going nowehere and everything else is changing around it.

For now the steering is West to just North of West, assuming it starts to head off at an appreciable speed if it is classified later today which seems to be a distinct possibility.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Nothing, I was just bringing info to ya'll.

why are people commenting on TYPHOON ROKE? It's not part of this blog but it is tropical. should it be banned?

I enjoy hearing about weather events from around the world. thanks Aussie, although I am sad about fires.
Quoting will40:
if i remember correctly Maria was very shallow when approaching the islands but got picked up by a weakness when she was N of the Bahamas
That's true, if it's a deep layer trough then it will be picked up. We'll have to see if the GFDL picks up on this scenario.
last frame 384 hours

I'd say that this gets a 90% at 2pm, and becomes a TD at 5pm.

Impressive Invest:


Also, the center is much farther north than the NHC thinks.
Obvious that the center is exposed.

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 20th, with Video



thanks Levi very imformative as always
144. DVG
Quoting ColdInFL:
You guys just can't get a break

Link


Amen.
Quoting wxmobilejim:

But in reality we do not know if it is an all time record. Now do we? We don't have records from 400 years ago do we? I love it when someone says it is the hottest day in the last 40 years. Well what about the 1 million+ years before that are you really sure that day is the hottest all time?


We also have to determine just how accurate the old LIG (liquid-in-glass) thermometers were 120 years ago, compared to today's solid state thermistors (which can display in fractions of a degree).
Look at the system south of Newfoundland, it has an eye like feature.

Quoting ackee:
which model solution do u buy for 98L

A GFS
B ECMWF
C NOSAPS
D GFDL
E HWRF
F CMC


D
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Look at the system south of Newfoundland, it has an eye like feature.


Isn't that Maria???


Very extended CFS loop.

3am here, I'm out. Goodnight all.
152. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't that Maria???


Very extended CFS loop.


Maria is long gone, that's a nontropical system that looks incredibly interesting.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't that Maria???


Very extended CFS loop.
IDK, unless I'm having a nostalgic moment, I thought Maria was gone since last week. Btw nice link.
Quoting JLPR2:


Maria is long gone, that's a nontropical system that looks incredibly interesting.
Thanks for the image, a cold-core, non-tropical low, probably too far north to be classified as a sub-tropical system.
156. JLPR2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for the image, a cold-core, non-tropical low, probably too far north, to be classified as a sub-tropical system.


Yeah, no deep convection, so cold core.
But it's eye candy. :)
Good afternoon, everyone. Just checking in to see what's up for this weekend. I can tell you that we are getting sick and tired of all the rain we've had for what seems like weeks now!

Also wanted to thank those of you who post here for the information you give us. We honestly do pay attention!

Thanks again....J&L
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, no deep convection, so cold core.
But it's eye candy. :)
lol Facepalm
159. JLPR2
98L seems very close to TD status and if the exposed circulation is actually the main one then it is moving NW/WNW.

A little more distance from the ITCZ is what this system needs.

*The more I look at Visible Sat loops, the more I get convinced that the exposed swirl is not the main LLC and is probably spinning around it. With the main LLC to the SW of it.
Comment re: Southern Plains heat/drought/rainfall removed.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 20th, with Video
Good afternoon to everyone, Levi, I think 98L is moving slower than any other CV storm this season, where its located now. I also have seen a further Southern trend in the GFS and Euro, with 98L over the last few days. They do curve it, but the trend seems to be further S. Now I see the GFDL has 98L in the central Caribbean. Can we look for more of this?
Quoting hulazigzag:
would it be reasonable to take temp readings over ten seconds out of a yearand come up with a trend? And if 10 to 15 years is the sample that is reasonable any changes to the climate in those periods would be insignificant because in the next cycle they could do a complete 180.


You are confusing two things... whether a trend is statistically significant and whether or not a trend will continue.
the NHC is sick...wtf they say no defined LLC? ok Jeff masters said there is one, ASCAT says there is one....they are taking independence too far!
I have a general blog question, home come some posts are hidden and I have click on the show button to view them while others are shown?

Thanks.
my forecast is north of the greater antillias
Are we entering a La Nina, El Nino or neutral period? Where do you find that forecast?
Quoting carcar1967:
I have a general blog question, home come some posts are hidden and I have click on the show button to view them while others are shown?

Thanks.



look at the filter right under show comments and pick show all
Quoting will40:



look at the filter right under show comments and pick show all


I pick "Show All" and after the refresh it back to "Show Average". ????
Quoting carcar1967:


I pick "Show All" and after the refresh it back to "Show Average". ????


pick show all then log out and then log back in
Quoting carcar1967:


I pick "Show All" and after the refresh it back to "Show Average". ????


Thanks, That worked.
The National Weather Service's Central Region just released a lengthy report (PDF) on the Joplin tornado of May 22. Particularly disturbing are the notes about how many people ignored the warnings and likely paid for that ignorance with their lives. The words sound much like those of people in hurricane-prone areas who haven't been hit in a while:

"...familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to storms always blowing over and missing Joplin, or that there seemed like there was a protective bubble around Joplin, or there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin. One city employee stated, "don‘t think it can‘t happen in your community, because that‘s what I thought." This sense in which people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others is referred to as optimism bias and can lead to diminished perceptions of threat and influence response."

Anyway, it's a very informational report for those interested in such things.
Quoting carcar1967:


Thanks, That worked.



welcome
173. SLU
98L has 2 centers of circulation. One near 11n 39.5w and the other at 12.5n 38w so the NHC is right in saying that it is not well defined. It appears that the south-western low is becoming more dominant with the north-eastern one starting to rotate around it in a cyclonic fashion.
174. JLPR2
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY
OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

That is rather contradictory.
Quoting carcar1967:
I have a general blog question, home come some posts are hidden and I have click on the show button to view them while others are shown?

Thanks.


This is where the +/- system located on the top right portion of each post comes into play. The filter "hides" posts by individuals who have had a poor reception (more minuses) from other posters (regardless of why that may be). You can set the level at which people are displayed as indicated by post 167: will40.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The National Weather Service's Central Region just released a lengthy report (PDF) on the Joplin tornado of May 22. Particularly disturbing are the notes about how many people ignored the warnings and likely paid for that ignorance with their lives. The words sound much like those of people in hurricane-prone areas who haven't been hit in a while:

"...familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to storms always blowing over and missing Joplin, or that there seemed like there was a protective bubble around Joplin, or there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin. One city employee stated, "don‘t think it can‘t happen in your community, because that‘s what I thought." This sense in which people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others is referred to as optimism bias and can lead to diminished perceptions of threat and influence response."

Anyway, it's a very informational report for those interested in such things.

Thanks Nea. Intersting, though too common.
Quoting JLPR2:
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY
OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

That is rather contradictory.


LOL
Quoting daddyjames:


This is where the +/- system located on the top right portion of each post comes into play. The filter "hides" posts by individuals who have had a poor reception (more minuses) from other posters (regardless of why that may be). You can set the level at which people are displayed as indicated by post 167: will40.


Thanks, by the way my son is named James. He turned 5 yesterday.
Quoting ncstorm:
last frame 384 hours


ewe - that's just not nice
Quoting carcar1967:


Thanks, by the way my son is named James. He turned 5 yesterday.


Got the nom-de-blog from my little one, who coincidently also just turned 5, when asked what my name was (a few years back) and responded confidently "DaddyJames, silly". :D

Happy birthday to your son!

Edited to correct misspelling: confidently
Quoting Neapolitan:
The National Weather Service's Central Region just released a lengthy report (PDF) on the Joplin tornado of May 22. Particularly disturbing are the notes about how many people ignored the warnings and likely paid for that ignorance with their lives. The words sound much like those of people in hurricane-prone areas who haven't been hit in a while:

"...familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to storms always blowing over and missing Joplin, or that there seemed like there was a protective bubble around Joplin, or there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin. One city employee stated, "don‘t think it can‘t happen in your community, because that‘s what I thought." This sense in which people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others is referred to as optimism bias and can lead to diminished perceptions of threat and influence response."

Anyway, it's a very informational report for those interested in such things.


It is sad but true. Many people believe that there is a reason for their area to never have taken a direct hit. Whether it be for geographic reasons or something else. Truth is that it is just a matter of time, and we must always take the warnings serious. After covering an F5 in Hackleberg, AL this year, I heard many who live there say they thought that area would never get a direct hit because the tornadoes always go through a little valley there, and not hit the town. 18 were killed there.
Quoting daddyjames:


Got the nom-de-blog from my little one, who coincidently also just turned 5, when asked what my name was (a few years back) and responded confidently "DaddyJames, silly". :D

Happy birthday to your son!

Edited to correct misspelling: confidently


I wonder if your little one is as much a handful as mine is. LOL
184. JLPR2
A stronger 98L, up 5mph, down one millibar.

AL, 98, 2011092018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 383W, 30, 1007, LO
185. JLPR2
Also, 18z SHIPS is more optimistic with 98L, has a 57mph TS in 48hrs, at the end of the runs weakens it to 48mph.
I pointed out last night that 98L was having issues with competing vort centers, and I still believing it's having that issue today. However, I do believe it is much less of an issue this afternoon. The circulation that was exposed on the northern side is not the main center. There appears to be a couple of different vort maxes rotating around a common center. Once they consolidate, we'll have a TD. This is a common occurrence with monsoonal type systems.
187. JLPR2
Models don't know what to make of 98L.
Thanks for the info JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:
Models don't know what to make of 98L.


Obviously.
Quoting bird72:
Dr. Master mention Africa, so I going to talk about Africa.....

Africais the world's second largest and second most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.2 million km² (11.7 million sq mi) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth's total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area.[2] With 1.0 billion people (as of 2009, see table) in 61 territories, it accounts for about 14.72% of the world's human population.

The continent is surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, both the Suez Canal and the Red Sea along the Sinai Peninsula to the northeast, the Indian Ocean to the southeast, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west. The continent has 54 sovereign states, including Madagascar and various island groups.

Africa, particularly central Eastern Africa, is widely regarded within the scientific community to be the origin of humans and the Hominidae clade (great apes), as evidenced by the discovery of the earliest hominids and their ancestors, as well as later ones that have been dated to around seven million years ago – including Sahelanthropus tchadensis, Australopithecus africanus, A. afarensis, Homo erectus, H. habilis and H. ergaster – with the earliest Homo sapiens (modern human) found in Ethiopia being dated to circa 200,000 years ago.[3]

Africa straddles the equator and encompasses numerous climate areas; it is the only continent to stretch from the northern temperate to southern temperate zones.[4] The African expected economic growth rate is at about 5.0% for 2010 and 5.5% in 2011.[5]



The history of Africa begins with the prehistory of Africa and the emergence of Homo sapiens in East Africa, continuing into the present as a patchwork of diverse and politically developing nation states. Agriculture began about 10,000 BCE and metallurgy in about 4000 BCE. The history of early civilization arose in Egypt and later in the Maghreb and the Horn of Africa. During the Middle Ages, Islam spread through the regions. Crossing the Maghreb and the Sahel, a major centre of Muslim culture was at Timbuktu. States and polities subsequently formed throughout the continent.

From the late 15th century, Europeans and Arabs took slaves from West, Central and Southeast Africa overseas in the African slave trade. European colonization of Africa developed rapidly in the Scramble for Africa of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Following independence and struggles in many parts of the continent, decolonization took place after the Second World War.

Africa's history has been a challenge for researchers in the field of African studies because of the scarcity of written sources in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Scholarly techniques such as the recording of oral history, historical linguistics, archaeology and genetics have been crucial.



Maybe the "biblical" flooding wiped out all of the records at the end of Ice Age about 10,000-12,000 years ago? There are some clues in the bible but it's all about interpretation... Ask 100 people and you get 100 different interpretation. Seems that a lot of things came directly from Sumerians, the oldest civilization that we could find with extensive writings. I suspect that the pyramids and similar buildings all over the world may have much older than 5000 years old but who really knows for sure? Look at Sphinx, the base showed water erosion. When's the last time that region saw that much water? Was that biblical flooding?

We could only trace homo sapien's MtDNA to south Africa as the earliest point (200,000 years).

How did homo species end up with 46 chromosomes while the higher primates have 48 chromosomes but they all look remarkable similar even with 2nd and 3rd pair from higher primates being fused together in homo sapiens.

I suspect genetic testing will clear up a lot of questions. What's strange is that there is 900 years old skull with no deformity at all and the genetic testing showed it to be entirely different species. I mean 900 years old? They are going to test those famous conehead skulls from Peru. Results are expected later this year or early next year. That should be very interesting to see if they are indeed a different species that is very recent. Remember queens and kings of ancient Egypt also had similar conehead skull... Sometimes I wonder those Egypt archaeologist (Hawass?) hid something from everybody...
Lol at the HWRF and BAMS
Quoting carcar1967:


I wonder if your little one is as much a handful as mine is. LOL


Blessed with an intelligent, confident, and all-around happy kid! An absolute joy to parent - challenging at times, but a load of fun!

(humor flag) [Know that this is "off topic" and there is obvious bias, please forgive one proud papa . . .]
193. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:
Thanks for the info JLPR2


Glad to bring some in. I'm still watching the TVCN closely since it is the consensus of the models.

Also, in visible imagery 98L has the appearance or I should say structure of a TS already.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Dry air??? That will inhibit Roke. which is what I am wishing for.



I could be wrong, but I think that it's less of a dry air issue, than it is of a secondary eye wall developing, and that is the drier area in between the two. At least, that's what it looks like using the other TRMM images.

(That and I remember someone pointing out the same thing in and archive of Hurricane Wilma's sat. loop a couple of days ago.)

...never-the-less, either could suggest some near term weakening or inhibit intensification.
Quoting JLPR2:


Glad to bring some in. I'm still watching the TVCN closely since it is the consensus of the models.

Also, in visible imagery 98L has the appearance of a TS already.


Yes 98L looks good right now and TVCN is actually showing a dangerous track for the Leewards, VI and PR as the worst conditions are often confined in the N and NE semicircles (Maria, Irene).
171. Neapolitan

Interesting Report and outcome not too surprising. Individual responses listed in the report keep emergency manager and staff hoping their warnings are getting through to the masses.
My apologies to everyone for asking again but if one does not ask, one does not learn. Stormpulse shows 98 at 10.8 and 40 while WU shows 12 and 38. I thought info was obtained from same location ie NHC so don't understand why the difference. As I am in Grenada ( 12N), this variance means a great deal to me. Having survived IVAN, although losing home and possessions, I don't wish to jump the gun and start packing away everything but do wish to be prepared. I have all my emergency supplies but to board up windows, pack away treasured items, etc is a very big task for me. If it is indeed at 12 and still some 1400 miles away, there is a good chance it will pass us by. On the other hand............. I rely a great deal on the comments posted here so any info would be appreciated.
198. JLPR2
Quoting leicesterlass:
My apologies to everyone for asking again but if one does not ask, one does not learn. Stormpulse shows 98 at 10.8 and 40 while WU shows 12 and 38. I thought info was obtained from same location ie NHC so don't understand why the difference. As I am in Grenada ( 12N), this variance means a great deal to me. Having survived IVAN, although losing home and possessions, I don't wish to jump the gun and start packing away everything but do wish to be prepared. I have all my emergency supplies but to board up windows, pack away treasured items, etc is a very big task for me. If it is indeed at 12 and still some 1400 miles away, there is a good chance it will pass us by. On the other hand............. I rely a great deal on the comments posted here so any info would be appreciated.


12N 38W are the official coordinates.
199. SLU
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic
200. JLPR2
Meanwhile ex-99L is moving closer to the islands, even though its chances are slim to none, it is entering my area so I'm keeping a very close eye on it.

Good Afternoon...
Quoting SLU:
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic


Renumbering coming soon... may be by 8PM today
203. Jax82
Gulf SSTs on the decrease now.

Quoting leicesterlass:
My apologies to everyone for asking again but if one does not ask, one does not learn. Stormpulse shows 98 at 10.8 and 40 while WU shows 12 and 38. I thought info was obtained from same location ie NHC so don't understand why the difference. As I am in Grenada ( 12N), this variance means a great deal to me. Having survived IVAN, although losing home and possessions, I don't wish to jump the gun and start packing away everything but do wish to be prepared. I have all my emergency supplies but to board up windows, pack away treasured items, etc is a very big task for me. If it is indeed at 12 and still some 1400 miles away, there is a good chance it will pass us by. On the other hand............. I rely a great deal on the comments posted here so any info would be appreciated.


well in the first place the system has not formed as yet and once it does all the sources will and should have the same cordinates however its just timing and i cannot agree with you to say once its above 12n it should pass us by i am also in greenz and i have watched weather since 2002 so i know alot of storm history but no 2 seasons are alike,2011 is the most difficult i have seen
Quoting daddyjames:


Blessed with an intelligent, confident, and all-around happy kid! An absolute joy to parent - challenging at times, but a load of fun!

(humor flag) [Know that this is "off topic" and there is obvious bias, please forgive one proud papa . . .]


I can say the same about mine with the added elevated energy. He love this site when I get on at home. He loves the satellite loops and always has a lot of questions.

Trying to get him interested in everything that has to do about weather. When I was younger and single, I almost wanted to be a storm chaser. Thought it was cool.
Quoting JLPR2:
Meanwhile ex-99L is moving closer to the islands, even though its chances are slim to none, it is entering my area so I'm keeping a very close eye on it.



I'm sure it'll blow up tonight!
OMG THE BLOG IS DEAD!!! I'm wondering what is going on;;;;
Looks like february lol activity-wise!!
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG THE BLOG IS DEAD!!! I'm wondering what is going on;;;;


Everybody is in awe of the SUPERDOOMHYPERCANE OMEGA!
New Blog



Hmmmmmmmmmmmm