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98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2012

A tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops and Barbados radar. The thunderstorms have shown more organization this morning, but there is no obvious surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. This morning's ASCAT pass showed top winds of 30 - 35 mph near 15°N, 55°W. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to diminish on Saturday to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, 98L may be able to develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend. The disturbance has a high amount of support for development among the reliable computer models. The NOGAPS model predicts 98L will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, about 400 hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. The GFS model predicts 98L will develop on Saturday, when the center will be very close to the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The ECMWF model predicts a more westerly path for 98L into the southeast Bahama Islands, with development delayed until Monday. The models are unified in forecasting that 98L will turn to the north by Monday and be drawn into a trough of low pressure. It does not appear that 98L will be a threat to the U.S. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit 98L on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Invest 97L east of the Bahamas
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

That doesn't necessarily imply a moderate risk though. That could be including more areas in a upgrade to 30%, which is still in the slight risk category. That could also mean upping the percentages for winds, hail, and tornado potentials on the subsequent SVR T-Storm/Tornado watches that may be issued as needed. That could also mean including a hatched area of winds greater that 65 knots or hail greater than 2" for any convective outlook issued that day. However, that does not necessarily mean upgrading to a moderate risk.

It could. However, considering Kerr wrote it, I wouldn't bet on it.

Forecaster Kerr = SPC's Forecast Stewart.
Good morning.

Getting the first showers from 98 this morning, with strong, noisy thunder just north and east of me.

Pressure 1010 steady right now, winds calm.
Going to be a wet day....
Thanks Doc

98L from RAMMB
Loop is embedded
Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters.


It could. However, considering Kerr wrote it, I wouldn't bet on it.

Forecaster Kerr = SPC's Forecast Stewart.

And you're right. It could. We'll see.

Up bright and early, huh Doc? Well thank you for an update on the tropics. I like these blogs. Climate is 30 years or more. Weather changes every second. Let's stick to weather. It's just much more exciting.
There is already a large 30% area, he is just saying he thinks some areas could be upgraded to a MDT risk. Friday could be the bigger day however, but we should be talking about a good severe weather event no matter what.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

And you're right. It could. We'll see.

Up bright and early, huh Doc? Well thank you for an update on the tropics. I like these blogs.

It all depends on the timing of everything whether we get a big or small event. I like these early blogs as I m still at home to read them.
97L is a little better organized than Tropical Storm Franklin, from last year, was when it was first declared a tropical storm. Also looks less-frontal.

97L:



Franklin at classification:

Thanks Doc! Looks like things are going to liven up on the board again. As a long time lurker, I appreciate reading yours and everyone else's interpretations here each day.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Looks like 97L is running out of time. 98L is looking good this morning
97L has been facing that same cold front for days now and it has hung on. News of its demise may still be premature.
Umm Doc A wide spread of the model tracks are calling for 97L to move south... where the front is to the North of it..



14. SLU
Man, the NHC wins the award for the world's most conservative meteorological organisation.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
I just finished a blog entry on 97L and 98L.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Quoting VR46L:
Umm Doc A wide spread of the model tracks are calling for 97L to move south... where the front is to the North of it..





Interesting, seems like the LBAR is the only saying out to sea. 97L is well organized, I see little reason why this won't be declared later today or tomorrow. They've been underestimating this blob for a long time, only because the models won't develop it. This is again, one of those times were you need to take your eyes off the models, and onto the situation. It has met most of the criteria to be a named storm. It is small, so the models aren't recognizing it. ASCAT showed a closed circulation with 30kt, perhaps some embedded 35kt winds. The human brain is always the best forecasting tool.



98L not looking bad either.
Quoting SLU:
Man, the NHC wins the award for the world's most conservative meteorological organisation.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Try the Japanese Forecasting Agency, they don't declare cyclones until they're halfway to hurricane status, and that's the norm.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Interesting, seems like the LBAR is the only saying out to sea. 97L is well organized, I see little reason why this won't be declared later today or tomorrow. They've been underestimating this blob for a long time, only because the models won't develop it. This is again, one of those times were you need to take your eyes off the models, and onto the situation. It has met most of the criteria to be a named storm. It is small, so the models aren't recognizing it. ASCAT showed a closed circulation with 30kt, perhaps some embedded 35kt winds. The human brain is always the best forecasting tool.



I totally agree with you !

I just am surprised at the reluctance to call it Patty
19. SLU
OMG

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 57.0W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
11/1145 UTC 25.6N 72.6W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic
20. SLU
Quoting SLU:
OMG

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 57.0W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
11/1145 UTC 25.6N 72.6W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic


I hope common sense prevails later this morning.
Quoting VR46L:


I totally agree with you !

I just am surprised at the reluctance to call it Patty

Relax. We'll get Patti one way or another. And I'm sure we'll all share our moments of glory with her. Patience is a virtue.
Thank you Dr. Masters
97 is a persistant fighter. strong as ever this morning surprised 98 only has a 1.0
Quoting SLU:


I hope common sense prevails later this morning.
97L is our Patty I know it will be dead soon but they need to declare it fast.
Quoting SLU:
OMG

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 57.0W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
11/1145 UTC 25.6N 72.6W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic

I hope so too.

That equates to a 50 mph tropical storm.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. We'll get Patti one way or another. And I'm sure we'll all share our moments of glory with her. Patience is a virtue.


My impatience is a flaw in my character lol..


anyways 97L from RAMMB ..loop embedded

Link
97L has it's center exposed on the sw side, barely, but I still believe the NHC could declare it anytime, if they wanted to.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope so too.

That equates to a 50 mph tropical storm.

It has kept convection, since yesterday at noon, and has continously been firing it, the NHC has to realize she isnt going to be pretty storm... But she is a storm.
Possible location of 98L center to be just west of convection.

30. DDR
Good morning
One can see the 98L's center here on the Barbados radarLink
Joneszin' for some Rainbow.



Whoa. That's a huge circle.

Quoting TomballTXPride:
Joneszin' for some Rainbow.



Whoa. That's a huge circle.



98L looks epic in rainbow LOL
T# up to 3.0/3.0? This needs an upgrade.
Thanks Jeff...
Good morning folks, Fantastic weather here today!!....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.1N 128.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 128.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.6N 128.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting VR46L:


98L looks epic in rainbow LOL

Indeed! T#'s just shot up, too. This could be a large system once she gets goin'.
Reunion Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET October 11 2012
======================================

Convective activity is moderate to strong, but fluctuating, and concentrated between 65.0E and 85.0E
north of 12.0S. In this area, multispectral satellite imagery suggests a broad clockwise circulation whose the center can be localized very approximately near 6.7S 74.5E at 0900 AM UTC. The central pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa (observation Diego-Garcia at 0900 AM UTC). 0355 AM UTC ASCAT pass shows winds at about 10-15 knots, reaching 20-25 kt in the southern semi-circle.

The low is currently well supplied poleward. Equatorward low level inflow is weaker, but should
improve within the next days. Upper level vertical wind shear is moderate on the western edge of
high pressures located in the east. Within the next 72 hours, available numerical weather prediction models forecast that this low will keep a fast enough movement west southwestward, and should slowly deepen with fairly good environmental conditions. Saturday and especially Sunday, it is expected that vertical wind shear will decrease and so the low should more clearly deepen.

For the next 36 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE, FORMER BOB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 11 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura moved northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over Tripura and adjoining Mizoram and Bangladesh.

The is the last bulletin for this system
GFS at 96 hours,97 died out and 98 headed northward.......
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Try the Japanese Forecasting Agency, they don't declare cyclones until they're halfway to hurricane status, and that's the norm.


no, no.. that is the India people that do that at times.
. the stalled out front dips all the way into the nw carib the next place of interest?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


no, no.. that is the India people that do that at times.

Right on, HGW.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


no, no.. that is the India people that do that at times.


Oh yea, they're pretty bad at declaring cyclones when they need to be one.
IMO 97L is likely to be declared a tropical cyclone at any time. T3.0 and separation from front has taken place. 98L should slowly develop into the following cyclone in 2 days time with current *relatively* favorable conditions
Quoting SLU:


I hope common sense prevails later this morning.


Seriously? Ok, they have to declare this thing at 11 am, else they look ridiculous.
12z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 1008, LO
today's date is

10-11-12..

too bad there isnt a pick 6..LOL
Quoting wxchaser97:

It all depends on the timing of everything whether we get a big or small event. I like these early blogs as I m still at home to read them.
Possibly depends more on what fires where in the next 48 hours. Already looks like moisture (therefore instability) may be exceeding expectations.

And to TA13, re: your comment comparing SPC and NHC forecasters. Can't do it. They are forecasting two different entities. SPC forecasts potential. NHC forecasts known entities. SPC deals with multiple unknowns and interactions that cannot be seen until they happen. They will always err on the side of caution. They have to.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Indeed! T#'s just shot up, too. This could be a large system once she gets goin'.


like an Isaac...too big for itself ?
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Joneszin' for some Rainbow.



Whoa. That's a huge circle.



So Dr Masters says 97L won't develop and 98L will develop yet the NHC gives both 50%. What gives?????
Quoting AussieStorm:


So Dr Masters says 97L won't develop and 98L will develop yet the NHC gives both 50%. What gives?????

At the time he wrote the blog 97L wasn't really impressive but it has really improved and let's say "exceeded" expectations
Edit: Wait I see he just wrote the blog...yes I see your question.
Morning all... Today feels like the first day of fall here... I actually saw a couple people with jackets on... lol

I gotta say, it's a welcome relief from the unrelenting heat of the last few days. Yesterday afternoon was about as intolerable as it gets heatwise.

I'm watching 97L now to see if it will hold together long enough to bring any unsettled weather to the Bahamas this weekend. It's looking better than I expected.
Quoting VR46L:


like an Isaac...too big for itself ?


My thinking exactly. Only this one won't have to be geo-engineered (seeded with silver iodine). :-]
Quoting AussieStorm:


So Dr Masters says 97L won't develop and 98L will develop yet the NHC gives both 50%. What gives?????

Time a flip a coin. I call heads it develops!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 1008, LO


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.
JMA model..

120 hours


144 hours
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Time a flip a coin. I call heads it develops!

Yeah, I agree. I mean it's not the 1st time Dr Masters and the NHC disagreeing but both are 50%.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


My thinking exactly. Only this one won't have to be geo-engineered (seeded with silver iodine). :-]


Having gone through it personally, I KNEW there was something odd about that storm. Now I know what it was. :)
Quoting TomballTXPride:


My thinking exactly. Only this one won't have to be geo-engineered (seeded with silver iodine). :-]

Isaac was geo-engineered?
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.


Good morning Kman. Do you see 98L being a TD/TS in the Eastern Caribbean,and how you see Puerto Rico being affected.
97l RGB looks rather cute ...reminds me of michael forming except Michael was a definite fish..

98L RGB ..Big and fat ..

Quoting AussieStorm:

Isaac was geo-engineered?



Big Bird did it.....
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.


Hello kman! I agree with you completely. I wish we had some recon to help with the model runs...
Quoting VR46L:
97l RGB looks rather cute ...reminds me of michael forming except Michael was a definite fish..

There is no doubt in my mind that that is Patty.

Hey I made a blog enrty.Do you mind checking it out?.
More optimistic than last night

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED.
NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.
Looks to be even a bit south west of best now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is no doubt in my mind that that is Patty.

Hey I made a blog enrty.Do you mind checking it out?.


If it aint Patty it will be classified post season that is a pretty TS in my mind

I would love to wash ...Zooming over now
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.
Good morning. Is there any chance 98L is too far south to feel the weakness and have there been any October TS or hurricanes that traversed through the entire Caribbean .TIA
Quoting yoboi:



Big Bird did it.....

I thought it was Skippy. lol
Quoting VR46L:
98L RGB ..Big and fat ..



Turning becoming increasingly evident on the last few frames. We're going to have to watch this one, conditions right now are unfavorable, but *if* the models are wrong, and 98L manages to get into the Caribbean, once it reaches Puerto Rico's longitude, conditions are favorable for development per the latest shear charts. CMC has shifted into the Eastern Caribbean. That's 97L making landfall in Cuba as well. The CMC shows 98L really takes off by the time it is approaching Puerto Rico.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Is there any chance 98L is too far south to feel the weakness and have there been any October TS or hurricanes that traversed through the entire Caribbean .TIA


I was thinking the same thing myself.. It is pretty far south of the weakness..

Quoting yoboi:



Big Bird did it.....
no that stuff is not true its abunch of people with theorys that are just guessing.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.

Hey kman yeah I totaly agree with you
Another thing I don't buy the NW track at all gut feeling tells me that 98L will track through the E Carib and recurve somewhere between Haiti and W-central Cuba if anything I'm going with the CLP5 model plus you can fight with Climo which is what the CLP5 model is based
Well its a good thing 98L won't continue to head into the caribbean waters as the TCHP only gets higher as you head toward the N.W part.Not to sure what shear would be at that time even if it were to take that path.
97L has made the jump, according to the ATCF:

invest_RENUMBER_al972012_al162012.ren

AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD,
Quoting WatcherCI:
Looks to be even a bit south west of best now.


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Is there any chance 98L is too far south to feel the weakness and have there been any October TS or hurricanes that traversed through the entire Caribbean .TIA


Quoting VR46L:


I was thinking the same thing myself.. It is pretty far south of the weekness..



Hey well at least we are all working on the same page
Quoting Neapolitan:
97L has made the jump, according to the ATCF:

invest_RENUMBER_al972012_al162012.ren

AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,

Can always rely on you Neapolitan to pound away at the F5 key and try to be the first one to bring us the most up-to-date info on our tropical entities.

Thanks. :-]
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Hey kman yeah I totaly agree with you
Another thing I don't buy the NW track at all gut feeling tells me that 98L will track through the E Carib and recurve somewhere between Haiti and W-central Cuba if anything I'm going with the CLP5 model plus you can fight with Climo which is what the CLP5 model is based


So where do you think it will end up?
Quoting Neapolitan:
97L has made the jump, according to the ATCF:

invest_RENUMBER_al972012_al162012.ren

AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,


Ok then 97L is TD16 and 98L will be TD 17 boy we are going up the list quick

Normaly we would have our 17th storm by late Oct- early Nov
Good Morning. TD16 is trying real hard to stay alive but going head first into a wall of sheer.....Never give up until the fight is over.
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD,




yep
Quoting VR46L:


So where do you think it will end up?


Well can't say right now but this time of year NW Carib tends to get hit
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. 97L is trying real hard to stay alive but going head first into a wall of sheer.....Never give up until the fight is over.


You mean TD16
Finally..97L has been determined and has now earned its resepect from the NHC.
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD,
Good mornng everyone, so I see we have TD 16. It will be interesting to see what the cone looks like, as most of the models have this tracking southwestwards towards Cuba and entering the Western Caribbean.
Quoting Neapolitan:
97L has made the jump, according to the ATCF:

invest_RENUMBER_al972012_al162012.ren

AL, 16, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 255N, 726W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,

I'll wait for the NHC to call it TD-16 :-)
Interesting the NHC had it only at 50% and now the ATCF has it as a TD.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well can't say right now but this time of year NW Carib tends to get hit
Not from there though. We usually may get something forming in the SW Caribbean. I just looked it up and it says there have only been two hurricanes which formed in the area 98L is in that travelled through the entire Caribbean. One being Joan which crossed over into the Pacific and became Miriam. Joan has been retired.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


You mean TD16


Noted and corrected.
say good bye too EL nino

here are this weeks #

Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC
The T numbers did support a 50mph t.S if I read that correctly on the last page.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll wait for the NHC to call it TD-16 :-)


Thats a very good point!! There has been a few false alarms on here this season....
Quoting VR46L:


Thats a very good point here has been a few false alarms on here this season....

Nah, when the NHC updates the ATCF at a late time like this, it's almost certain the upgrade is true.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Nah, when the NHC updates the ATCF at a late time like this, it's almost certain the upgrade is true.

But it's best to wait till it's officially named.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll wait for the NHC to call it TD-16 :-)
You do that if you wish; you'll only have to wait another 20 minutes or so. In the meantime, I'll go with both the NHC's ATCF and the Navy...

TD16
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Is there any chance 98L is too far south to feel the weakness and have there been any October TS or hurricanes that traversed through the entire Caribbean .TIA


Sorry for the late reply, I left home and now at the office.

October systems are notoriously difficult to forecast, particularly with track. A lot will depend on how quickly 98L can get its act together, or deepen which is the technical term, as the weaker it remains the greater the potential to track on a more Southerly route with the low level easterly flow.

As long as that steering weakness remains though the natural inclination of a low pressure to the South of it is to pull to the North.
Quoting AussieStorm:

But it's best to wait till it's officially named.

Yes, yes it is. F5 F5 F5 ...
105. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Nah, when the NHC updates the ATCF at a late time like this, it's almost certain the upgrade is true.


But no guarantee until they release an advisory ..I have seen ones put on the navy site that simply did not exist
2012 belongs to the frontal systems this year as that is how most of them orginated/formed from.It all started with Alberto..
97L models which is now TD 16, split from southwest to northeast.

108. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
say good bye too EL nino

here are this weeks #

Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC


last week data ????
Quoting VR46L:


But no guarantee until they release an advisory ..I have seen ones put on the navy site that simply did not exist

Well, this year it was always true. Not sure for any other years.
Quoting yoboi:


last week data ????




plzs read my commet i said this week



This looks highly unusual. How often do the low deserts adjacent to the Western Colorado River experience hail?



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111406Z - 111600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY NARROW N/S CORRIDOR ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS HAS
INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HOUR CENTERED FROM NEAR EED TO BLH. THIS
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH GENERALLY 60S SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE HAVASU AREA PER MESONET
OBSERVATIONS. 12Z LAS VEGAS AND YUMA RAOBS SAMPLED MUCAPE AROUND
700-1000 J/KG...GREATER THAN DEPICTED IN SPC OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS.
WITHIN THE EXIT OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA AND
GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SPEED SHEAR NOTED ABOVE 1 KM AGL IN THE YUMA
RAOB...SETUP SHOULD FAVOR TRANSIENT SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 10/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 34941508 35321531 35661521 35781460 35511416 34871396
34111395 33451413 33341443 33731474 34941508
NHC issuing advisories on TD SIXTEEN
113. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
2012 belongs to the frontal systems this year as that is how most of them orginated/formed from.It all started with Alberto..


Definitely true the ugly lookers were the tropical ones in origin ...
Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry for the late reply, I left home and now at the office.

October systems are notoriously difficult to forecast, particularly with track. A lot will depend on how quickly 98L can get its act together, or deepen which is the technical term, as the weaker it remains the greater the potential to track on a more Southerly route with the low level easterly flow.

As long as that steering weakness remains though the natural inclination of a low pressure to the South of it is to pull to the North.
Thank you. I did look it up and found that there were at least two that did.
Quoting Grothar:


This one strikes me as a tropical cyclone, looking at the various satellite loops.

We are finally starting to get some cooler temps in Central Florida! What a relief. I was looking at the extreme state lows for this morning and most were in the FL Panhandle, with readings in the mid to upper 50s - except Tampa Executive which reached a low of 50F (much lower than anywhere else in the state). Is Tampa Exec. a suburb of Atlanta or what? Further, I had noticed this summer on many days, this location had lows from 66-69 F, a true anomaly for Florida if you ask me.
Bleak future for TD16, dissipated by 48 hours.
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 11
Location: 25.4°N 72.6°W
Moving: S at 1 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
This looks like a potent system, and almost all the models are pickin it up.
NHC cone takes TD16 SW
Quoting hydrus:
This looks like a potent system, and almost all the models are pickin it up.

We have this weeks potential severe weather event to be concerned about first, Hydrus.
NHC only took into account the TAFB estimates. They excluded the SAB's T3.0. Wonder why... maybe they thought it was just an error.
Quoting VR46L:


Definitely true the ugly lookers were the tropical ones in origin ...
That is so true..Like Oscar for a example.Poor fella couldn't even get Helene to look at him twice.
123. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Well, this year it was always true. Not sure for any other years.


No it has not I saw was it Nadine? called on here and navy 24 hrs too early
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bleak future for TD16, dissipated by 48 hours.

I'm afraid she'll be sheared to death fresh out of the gate.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not from there though. We usually may get something forming in the SW Caribbean. I just looked it up and it says there have only been two hurricanes which formed in the area 98L is in that travelled through the entire Caribbean. One being Joan which crossed over into the Pacific and became Miriam. Joan has been retired.


Sorry for this slightly late reply

That is true but it's not uncommon for that type of track to happen
Quoting washingtonian115:
That is so true..Like Oscar for a example.Poor fella couldn't even get Helene to look at him twice.

LOL!
Quoting hydrus:
This looks like a potent system, and almost all the models are pickin it up.
This looks exciting :).
If TD 16 survives somehow, will it go near my area (West Palm Beach, Florida)?
Quoting VR46L:


No it has not I saw was it Nadine? called on here and navy 24 hrs too early

But they cancelled the upgrade before advisory time, so that wouldn't count.

invest_RENUMBER_al142012_al912012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209101416

Maybe you're misunderstanding my point. I said 'at a late time'. What I think you meant is 'at any time'. I think that's the reason for the confusion.
Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

That cold front is pretty strong so I am siding with the NE solution at the moment..........We should know by tomorrow how TD 16 reacts to it. That jet stream along with 40 knots of sheer is a lot to overcome.

Link

Link
Interesting language from the discussion on TD 16. This system may not dissipate as quickly as forecasted

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...180/01.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME.

SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH DISSIPATION...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOT NEEDED FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

Good Morning... TD#16.
Well, have a good rest of the day! I'm going to sleep; it's almost midnight here.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This looks highly unusual. How often do the low deserts adjacent to the Western Colorado River experience hail?
A trained spotter In Mohave, AZ, just reported quarter-size (1") hail.

FWIW, I've lived along the Front Range of the Rockies in Colorado, and have spent many months in the Great Plains, but the two heaviest hail events I've ever experienced were in Southern California, one in August and the other in January
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I'm afraid she'll be sheared to death fresh out of the gate.


Have to agree with you Tomball. She is running out of time IMO
Quoting 12george1:
If TD 16 survives somehow, will it go near my area (West Palm Beach, Florida)?


It would take a miracle for that to happen this time of year (October, from that angle of approach). I would bet it happens once or twice a century, maybe. I would not mind the rain though.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Have to agree with you Tomball. She is running out of time IMO

She sure isn't build for stamina. Trough are diggin' deep rather early. Hostile upper-level dynamics are these things worst nemesis.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This looks exciting :).
I am interested to see the new GFS run. It appears that the next two systems will produce significant severe weather events, the second one being larger and more potent.
the recon will be vary help full for TD 16


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.
Quoting kmanislander:
Interesting language from the discussion on TD 16. This system may not dissipate as quickly as forecasted

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...180/01.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME.

SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH DISSIPATION...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOT NEEDED FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

If there is a low-level ridge building north of TD 16 wouldn't that close the weakness or something ? Not really sure how to put that but trust you know what I mean.
Quoting hydrus:
I am interested to see the new GFS run. It appears that the next two systems will produce significant severe weather events, the second one being larger and more potent.


the second one will be more east..
98L may have a couple low centers.
Quoting ncstorm:


the second one will be more east..
I think so too.
First mission for 98L will be on Friday afternoon and TD 16 will get a visit also on Friday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 11 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Well, have a good rest of the day! I'm going to sleep; it's almost midnight here.

Well if it's almost midnight there that means it's 2am here.

Ulladulla on the South Coast of NSW has had 213.4mm of rain since 9am Thursday morning. That's 8.4inches, and much more is to come until 9am, could see 300mm/11.8in.

Latest Weather Observations for Ulladulla
I just got to quote doc from a few hrs ago "98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat" this just shows how unreliable weather can really be .
Quoting belizeit:
I just got to quote doc from a few hrs ago "98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat" this just shows how unreliable weather can really be .

Yeah, I questioned that as the NHC had both at 50%, both could develop or both could not develop. The NHC has now said 97L is TD16 but will dissipate in 48hrs, and have issued no watches or warning, so what's the point of upgrading it.
Goodnight all, Stay well, stay safe, Enjoy your weather, cause that's the only weather you have :-)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If there is a low-level ridge building north of TD 16 wouldn't that close the weakness or something ? Not really sure how to put that but trust you know what I mean.
Quoting SLU:
Man, the NHC wins the award for the world's most conservative meteorological organisation.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Maybe they are just sensitive to the reaction the locals in South Florida would have to any more hype. I believe Andrew was weak and in the same area before it blew up to the montster it became. The idea of weather forecasts is to make people aware without frightening them. And I think any forecast should leave the window open for change. After all, the meteorologists don't have a crystal ball to tell them that a certain event is definitely going to happen. It's weather which changes very rapidly. Good morning everyone.:)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If there is a low-level ridge building north of TD 16 wouldn't that close the weakness or something ? Not really sure how to put that but trust you know what I mean.

yes I think so
Quoting washingtonian115:
2012 belongs to the frontal systems this year as that is how most of them orginated/formed from.It all started with Alberto..


I disagree. Whilst there have been a number of frontal systems, the majority have been truly tropical in nature. By my counts:

5 frontal: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Michael, 16.

9 tropical: Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Gordon, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Nadine.

And I'll leave Oscar up for debate.

156. VR46L
TD 16 in rainbow...

Quoting RitaEvac:
Got about an inch of rain here in less than 15 minutes this morning southeast of Buda Tx. Not much was in the forecast so it surprised everyone
This looks nasty..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all, Stay well, stay safe, Enjoy your weather, cause that's the only weather you have :-)
Good night Aussie.
12z Surface Analysis. As Kman said,it will pass South of Barbados.

161. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
NHC cone takes TD16 SW
yep

yep looks like it wants to go s ssw today the ? is could it also turn to the west ? be fun if it does to completee the loop the loop lol

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Got about an inch of rain here in less than 15 minutes this morning southeast of Buda Tx. Not much was in the forecast so it surprised everyone


You needed that! radar estimates not showing hardly anything though.
Quoting 7544:
yep

yep looks like it wants to go s ssw today the ? is could it also turn to the west ? be fun if it does to completee the loop the loop lol





Quoting SFLWeatherman:

If you noticed, the "L" is more west from where the models started. They need to update those models and readjust them. JMO
Quoting Neapolitan:
A trained spotter In Mohave, AZ, just reported quarter-size (1") hail.

FWIW, I've lived along the Front Range of the Rockies in Colorado, and have spent many months in the Great Plains, but the two heaviest hail events I've ever experienced were in Southern California, one in August and the other in January


Severe thunderstorms are quite rare in Southern California, particularly in the coastal regions.

But I recall a storm that happened in Orange County, CA in August of 1979 when I was there that was as bad as anything I have ever seen in Florida. This storm had intense cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail, straight-line wind gusts over 75 mph. and about 1.50 inches of rain. An inch and a half of rain is a monstrous total in that area for a single event that lasts only an hour or less.

On rare occasions during the monsoon season the tongue of moisture from the tropical Pacific and the Gulf of California which causes the monsoon effect further to the east over AZ and NM can reach as far west as the L.A. basin. When it gets there if it clashes with the more common and cooler maritime flow from the west, this can cause a gust front to form, allowing for the development of unusually powerful thunderstorms. The orographic effect produced by the various coastal mountain ranges can further enhance this effect. Nevertheless, all of this rarely happens.

Later in the year, jet stream aberrations in combination with some Pacific moisture flowing up from the south can also allow for localized severe wx development. Either way, it is an anomaly when it happens in that region because the normal weather patterns there feature much more stable air at all levels in the atmosphere.
16L/TC/D/NO NAME
A bit off-topic, but what a blessing this would be for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region if this pans out, as suggested by the 12Z NAM. Just hope this rain event comes without the severe weather and high winds, but I'm having my doubts about that...





Current 60-Day Departure From Normal Precipitation:

171. VR46L


GFS 12Z 60 HRS IN

clearing the Islands and out to sea for 98L...



POSS T.C.F.A.
98L/INV/XX/XX
lots going on today and the days to come seems

just stopping in on lunch break
111500Z OCT 12
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/OCT
OVLY/ATL STORM 16L/111200Z5/OCT/1OF1/TROP DEPRESSION 16L(SIXTEEN)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/253000N0/0723600W8/D
TEXT/12//G/245400N5/0734200W6/D
LINE/2//G/253000N0/0723600W8/245400N5/0734200W6
TEXT/12//G/233000N8/0700600W3/TROP DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
TEXT/12//G/223000N7/0700600W3/11 OCT 1200Z
TEXT/12//G/213000N6/0700600W3/MAX 30 KT
TEXT/12//G/203000N5/0700600W3/180 AT 01 KT
TEXT/12//G/193000N3/0750600W8/1212Z COMMENT:
TEXT/12//G/183000N2/0750600W8/DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TEXT/12//G/173000N1/0750600W8/TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
TEXT/12//G/263000N1/0694200W1/1212Z MAX 30
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

175. wxmod
Prapiroon and China smog. MODIS today
My experience with the NAM model is not to use it with track of systems but more with precipitation amount associated with frontal lows and/or tropical entities. It has done pretty well with nailing precipitation amounts. And I'm pretty sure the NAM is incorporated (amount a host of others) into the HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 73.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY.
LOCAL BEACH PATROL IS ALSO REPORTING A STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENT AT
MANY BEACHES. CHECK WITH THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL WHEN ARRIVING AT
THE BEACH FOR THE LATEST OCEAN HAZARDS. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT
OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY CHOPPY AND SHORT
PERIOD WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM AS SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET. THE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT TO USE CAUTION IF VENTURING WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF
STREAM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
FRESHENING NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bleak future for TD16, dissipated by 48 hours.

I haven't had time to follow the systems lately, but Dr. Masters usually is right.
180. wxmod
Deathly smog over China, not just over one city or here and there. It's suffocating the whole country and polluting the world. MODIS satellite photo

Quoting wxmod:
Deathly smog over China, not just over one city or here and there. It's suffocating the whole country and polluting the world. MODIS satellite photo

in years to come THEY will learn just like we did in OUR industrial age, just how deadly that industrial smog is, and hopefully their leaders will care and make the laws just like we did, to ensure the companies stop and change their ways pollution wise.
.........................hmmm more to cuba than those going northward
183. VR46L
Bermuda needs to keep an eye out... 153hrs

Quoting VR46L:
Bermuda needs to keep an eye out... 153hrs

yes and there was a model that put it close to the northeast coast, something to watch this week for sure
I hope TD 16 becomes a hurricane, just so the NHC can feel shame for having so little faith in the system. It's lasted this long, and I think it has a decent chance at lasting longer. Plus, I thought the T numbers were something like 3.0? Is that not mid-TS status? The NHC isn't just being conservative with this system, they're being republican. Haha.
189. 7544
td 16 is barely moving even stalled right now doing whatever it wants very unpredictable system so far id keep one eye on it anyway


eve seems to be picking up some interference
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If there is a low-level ridge building north of TD 16 wouldn't that close the weakness or something ? Not really sure how to put that but trust you know what I mean.


The ridge that is steering TD16 is one of two highs in the Atlantic. The weakness is to the East of this ridge between the two. Forecasts for the evolution of these two ridges do not see them bridging but has 98L going around the Western flank of the ridge currently anchored in the Eastern Atl.

Of course, you will have seen that the recent surface map has adjusted the track of 98L to enter the Caribbean much farther South than previously thought ( which is in keeping with my post on this earlier today ) and it remains to be seen whether further track adjustments are called for depending on how quickly 98L can deepen.

Recon now scheduled to visit 98L near 17N and 64 W which is significantly further West and South than previous track forecasts from the models but is a reflection of the fact that the system has so far not made the move to the NW that was expected.
wet snow to my nw

Quoting kmanislander:


The ridge that is steering TD16 is one of two highs in the Atlantic. The weakness is to the East of this ridge between the two. Forecasts for the evolution of these two ridges do not see them bridging but has 98L going around the Western flank of the ridge currently anchored in the Eastern Atl.

Of course, you will have seen that the recent surface map has adjusted the track of 98L to enter the Caribbean much farther South than previously thought ( which is in keeping with my post on this earlier today ) and it remains to be seen whether further track adjustments are called for depending on how quickly 98L can deepen.

Recon now scheduled to visit 98L near 17N and 64 W which is significantly further West and South than previous track forecasts from the models but is a reflection of the fact that the system has so far not made the move to the NW that was expected.
Thank you. I keep seeing NHC saying it is moving wnw for the past couple days and if it was (IMO) it should be further north than what it is.
Quoting kmanislander:


The ridge that is steering TD16 is one of two highs in the Atlantic. The weakness is to the East of this ridge between the two. Forecasts for the evolution of these two ridges do not see them bridging but has 98L going around the Western flank of the ridge currently anchored in the Eastern Atl.

Of course, you will have seen that the recent surface map has adjusted the track of 98L to enter the Caribbean much farther South than previously thought ( which is in keeping with my post on this earlier today ) and it remains to be seen whether further track adjustments are called for depending on how quickly 98L can deepen.

Recon now scheduled to visit 98L near 17N and 64 W which is significantly further West and South than previous track forecasts from the models but is a reflection of the fact that the system has so far not made the move to the NW that was expected.


The GFS though is stubborn with its N track leaving the islands "insanely" dry.
98L barely moving... hope it won't eject northward.
196. SLU
30 - 40mph winds and 3/4 of a closed low.

Quoting Chicklit:

I haven't had time to follow the systems lately, but Dr. Masters usually is right.
Good morning. May be usually right as I am certain he is but not so this time. The headline for this blog says 97L no threat lol.
at Barbados
Quoting CaribBoy:


The GFS though is stubborn with its N track leaving the islands "insanely" dry.


It should come West some in the next run
Quoting VR46L:
TD 16 in rainbow...



Looks like some kind of phoenix swooping down to eat the islands in rainbow LOL
201. wxmod
Quoting LargoFl:
in years to come THEY will learn just like we did in OUR industrial age, just how deadly that industrial smog is, and hopefully their leaders will care and make the laws just like we did, to ensure the companies stop and change their ways pollution wise.


I'm not sure if that can happen in China. Right now, there are a BILLION people living in unthinkable pollution, and most of those people have never rebelled against anything in their whole lives.
At the time of our industrial revolution, there were hardly any people in the USA, comparatively. So I think the free world will have to solve this problem, by not buying Chinese products.
Quoting SLU:
30 - 40mph winds and 3/4 of a closed low.



I just posted that but it did not show :-)

98L well to the SE of Barbados and the surface low open on the SW side.
203. 7544
if 97l td 16 could try to head west soon we can say it did a loop de loop still could happen imo
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you. I keep seeing NHC saying it is moving wnw for the past couple days and if it was (IMO) it should be further north than what it is.


Quite often when the NHC says the motion is a particular direction that appears to include the "forecasted" direction from the models. The track for 98l as observed has really been W for a long time now
all it has to do is closed off the soutwest,and we have TS Patty
Another perfect storm scenario :Hurricane heading north of Bermuda and a large high coming down from Newfoundland with a low from the Great lakes in about 9 to 10 days out. That is only my prediction before anybody wants a link. lol
207. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
yes and there was a model that put it close to the northeast coast, something to watch this week for sure


Yes ! Its something but as the storm hasnt even formed there is no guarantee really as to where its going ..
208. VR46L
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Looks like some kind of phoenix swooping down to eat the islands in rainbow LOL


Aye its rather Big at the moment..
98L LOOP

Link


nearly there!
Quoting wxmod:


I'm not sure if that can happen in China. Right now, there are a BILLION people living in unthinkable pollution, and most of those people have never rebelled against anything in their whole lives.
At the time of our industrial revolution, there were hardly any people in the USA, comparatively. So I think the free world will have to solve this problem, by not buying Chinese products.
..yes true but, with cheap prices for their goods, no one will stop buying the goods untill a worldwide cry goes out for them to stop their pollution..and we all know That wont happen anytime soon.
mainstream media is ignoring all the models that put TD16 into cuba and beyond............A tropical depression has formed Thursday morning east-northeast of the central Bahamas. It is not expected to affect Florida.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The center of TD 16 is located near latitude 25.4 north, longitude 72.6 west.
The depression is drifting toward the south near 1 mph. A turn toward the southwest and a slight increase in forward speed are expected later today.

On the forecast track the center of the depression is expected to remain northeast of the central Bahamas until dissipation occurs.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so and the depression is expected to dissipate by Friday night.
Quoting wxmod:


I'm not sure if that can happen in China. Right now, there are a BILLION people living in unthinkable pollution, and most of those people have never rebelled against anything in their whole lives.
At the time of our industrial revolution, there were hardly any people in the USA, comparatively. So I think the free world will have to solve this problem, by not buying Chinese products.


This is why I don't understand the whole anti-global warming crowd (of your regular person, not someone profiteering off things causing immense pollution obvs)

But why does it matter if we are changing the planet temp wise or not....surely NOT poisoning and polluting our planet is VERY important and the most important thing?! I'm not for renewables cause I'm a pro-climate change gal, I'm for them for cleaner air/water/land...and not paying vast amounts to these huge profiting, tax-relief receiving/benefit receiving, energy companies just so I don't freeze in winter while they have their massive profits(or roast in summer, depending where you live). i just don't understand why people are pro-pollution LOL

But anyway, I totally agree with you thoughts about China, many also probably don't even realise that it doesn't have to be that way and there are those with the power to lessen it
Arctic summer wind shift could affect sea ice loss and U.S./European weather, says NOAA-led study
October 10, 2012


Image from the North Pole webcam shows (July 27, 2010) ponds created by the summer sea ice melt.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Changes in summer Arctic wind patterns contribute not only to an unprecedented loss of Arctic sea ice, but could also bring about shifts in North American and European weather, according to a new NOAA-led study published today in Geophysical Research Letters.

A research team led by James Overland, Ph.D., of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Wash., examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern. This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south, and may influence the likelihood of persistent weather conditions in the mid-latitudes.

“Our research reveals a change in the summer Arctic wind pattern over the past six years. This shift demonstrates a physical connection between reduced Arctic sea ice in the summer, loss of Greenland ice, and potentially, weather in North American and Europe,” said Overland, a NOAA research oceanographer.  

...
.............7 day for the Tampa Bay area
Kinda early in the season for freeze warnings isnt it?..might turn out to be a very cold winter............................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-112200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.A.0007.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
346 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1156 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

MAZ002>005-008>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-120000-
/O.CON.KBOX.FZ.A.0005.121013T0400Z-121013T1400Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTER FIELD...
BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD.. .MILFORD...
WORCESTER...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER.. .NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1156 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* TIMING...AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Quoting kmanislander:


Quite often when the NHC says the motion is a particular direction that appears to include the "forecasted" direction from the models. The track for 98l as observed has really been W for a long time now
Once again, thank you. I thought it was strange that they keep saying wnw.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-121515-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1101 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FREEZE WATCH.

WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
228. 7544
ha look what the cmc does with td 16 interesting

Link
229. SLU
I wonder what the NHC will do at 5pm if the T numbers for TD 16 increase to T3.5.

And 98L should be upgraded to code red at about 70% with mention made about the possible formation of a TD within 48 hrs.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO WISCONSIN SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER
NORTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP AREAS A LITTLE
WARMER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

WIZ060-066-071-072-120000-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.121012T0600Z-121012T1200Z/
OZAUKEE-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT WASHINGTON...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...
KENOSHA
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN MAY STAY FROST FREE.

* TEMPERATURE...SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION WILL BE AT RISK. TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$




With all the winds blowing to the southeast i wonder why..98 will go northward?.................
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
112 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

PRC003-011-081-083-093-099-131-112015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0377.121011T1712Z-121011T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
AGUADA PR-
112 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND
AGUADA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 110 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 415 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6715 1839 6714 1840 6712 1830 6683
1816 6694 1837 6724 1840 6719 1841 6716

$$

23
gee if this was July I'd be checking my supplies........
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
REPORTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED
EVENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

$$
237. JLPR2
Hmm, 16 has the looks of a tropical storm, c'mon 16!



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wet snow to my nw

Is there such a thing as dry snow? I know some snows are heavier than others, but I would classify it as all wet. Though I have lived my life in the tropics, I think I have seen snow 4 times in my life in person.
Up to 40% for 97E.

TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

if recon had gone into td 16 ,they would have found a ts
242. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

243. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
if recon had gone into td 16 ,they would have found a ts


Yes, provided they close off the center but the NHC keeps it at 50% like they did with Tomas when it was obviously strenghening ....
Quoting kwgirl:
Is there such a thing as dry snow? I know some snows are heavier than others, but I would classify it as all wet. Though I have lived my life in the tropics, I think I have seen snow 4 times in my life in person.
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)
Quoting SLU:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



The NHC still waiting for 98L to " follow the models "
Quoting Neapolitan:
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)
yes most times if the upper air is warmer the snow will come down hard and heavy, melting quickly, slushy almost, real cold upstairs and it comes down hard and fluffy..kinda early for a snow storm though, a hard winter might be coming for you northern folks huh..............i remember..a very Hot summer..comes a real cold winter most times.
Quoting LargoFl:
With all the winds blowing to the southeast i wonder why..98 will go northward?.................


Good question Largo. I think 98L will be traveling further west for a while. It's too far south to get picked up and head north... for now
ask me why i moved to florida LOL.................
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good question Largo. I think 98L will be traveling further west for a while. It's too far south to get picked up and head north... for now
..yes we must keep a good eye on 98
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Arctic summer wind shift could affect sea ice loss and U.S./European weather, says NOAA-led study
October 10, 2012


Image from the North Pole webcam shows (July 27, 2010) ponds created by the summer sea ice melt.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Changes in summer Arctic wind patterns contribute not only to an unprecedented loss of Arctic sea ice, but could also bring about shifts in North American and European weather, according to a new NOAA-led study published today in Geophysical Research Letters.

A research team led by James Overland, Ph.D., of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Wash., examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern. This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south, and may influence the likelihood of persistent weather conditions in the mid-latitudes.

“Our research reveals a change in the summer Arctic wind pattern over the past six years. This shift demonstrates a physical connection between reduced Arctic sea ice in the summer, loss of Greenland ice, and potentially, weather in North American and Europe,” said Overland, a NOAA research oceanographer.  

...
The Washington Post had a nice write-up about the NOAA report today. The bottom line, as both scientists and a growing number of laypeople are realizing: the overall increasing warming of the past decades is having a detrimental effect on our weather--and it's likely going to get far worse.
Interesting: the ATCF just deleted the file for 98L, then placed it back up less than a minute later with only a single line. It could mean a sloppy renumber is imminent, or the system is just suffering another facet of sometimes-glitchy 2012:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111755
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012101112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Washington Post had a nice write-up about the NOAA report today. The bottom line, as both scientists and a growing number of laypeople are realizing: the overall increasing warming of the past decades is having a detrimental effect on our weather--and it's likely going to get far worse.
I am watching each year, how the tropical systems react to the warming globe,wondering IF..the hurricanes will get stronger and meaner as the temps go up..i sure hope not
256. JLPR2
Looks like the chances of 98L entering the Eastern Caribbean are increasing.

The way the NHC is handling 97L/TD16 is making me oddly angry. The numbers are there, and have been since before they even classified the low a TD, for it to be identified as Patty. It seems they deliberately don't want any more named storms to form or something absurd like that.

If you can name Jose or Helene, you can name this one.
Afternoon all... breezes are freshening here in Nassau this afternoon, which to me suggests 97L may be deepening.

It seems a lot more likely to me now than it did a couple days ago that we'll get a TC out of 97L, and that's mainly because I'm thinking it will drift far enough south to get into the "zone" for increased development potential. The models mostly seem to be forecasting a pretty logical outcome, especially in the short term.

E NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 73.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like the chances of 98L entering the Eastern Caribbean are increasing.


Short version of Iris 95?
Quoting 7544:
ha look what the cmc does with td 16 interesting

Link
did youu see how huge 98L got before being picked up?
Quoting LargoFl:
I am watching each year, how the tropical systems react to the warming globe,wondering IF..the hurricanes will get stronger and meaner as the temps go up..i sure hope not


Nah, it's hrder for them to get stronger because everything else is too... not only the environmental ingredients that combine to promote strengthening of a storm, but also those that destroy it. That's why storms aren't getting as strong as they used to be, but they are getting more intense. That's why that IKE scale is much more forward thinking than this aged Saffir-Simpson one. Usually a storm can't mix its winds to the surface before something from the environment gets to it, but it can maintain and further solidify its structure in the meantime; plump itself up. Such was the case with Isaac, and with Irene.

I don't know, really, but that is my thought. We'll be seeing less categor 4/5 storms, and more intense monsoonal types. Even Debby had the rains characteristic of a storm stronger than a moderate TS.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
264. JLPR2
Quoting 12george1:

Short version of Iris 95?


Looks possible, tough Iris moved almost completely north and only brushed the waters of the Caribbean, I don't think 98L will move completely north, it should retain some westward motion.
cmcc does look interesting 7544
Quoting Neapolitan:
Interesting: the ATCF just deleted the file for 98L, then placed it back up less than a minute later with only a single line. It could mean a sloppy renumber is imminent, or the system is just suffering another facet of sometimes-glitchy 2012:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111755
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012101112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


I go with the glitch, although 98L has been growing more and more organized throughout the past 36 hours. A renumber tonight is plausible, but this year is just full of glitchiness and poor calls.
Quoting LargoFl:
ask me why i moved to florida LOL.................


That's my reason too Largo. Used to live in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Best brats in the world, but that never made up for the snow and cold :)
Sorry if this has been posted already...
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 11 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.


EURO 48HR
Quoting Neapolitan:
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)
Interesting! How does this happen? Does the relative humidity in the air along with air temperature create the different types of snow?
271. wxmod
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes true but, with cheap prices for their goods, no one will stop buying the goods untill a worldwide cry goes out for them to stop their pollution..and we all know That wont happen anytime soon.


Then we're all going to die pretty soon, and not of ripe old age. Quit buying from China, or we're dead. It's just that simple.