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98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Bay of Bengal Storm Could be Trouble for India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2013

A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a small area of heavy thunderstorms with a modest amount of spin. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. However, a few members of the European model's ensembles of forecasts do show 98L potentially impacting the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands early next week.

Off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop along a stalled cold front just offshore, bringing an extended period of strong on-shore winds that will bring high waves, tides 1 - 2 feet above normal, and beach erosion from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Virginia Beach, Virginia. The Surfchex live webcam site has some impressive views of the high surf today from various cameras along the coast.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Danas has weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, and is bringing sustained winds of 40 mph to the south coast of South Korea. The Western Pacific will stay very active this week, with the GFS and European models predicting that two new tropical storms will form east of the Philippines late in the week.

In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, a strong tropical disturbance with plenty of spin has developed off the west coast of Thailand, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The North Indian Ocean is much easier to predict the formation of Tropical Cyclones for then the Atlantic, so these forecasts are very likely to come true. The storm expected to track to the west-northwest and make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday. Conditions are ripe for this storm to intensify to hurricane strength and drive a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of tropical disturbance 90W over the eastern Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean, taken at approximately 08:30 UTC on October 8, 2013. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone that will affect Northeast India this weekend. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It's 55 beautiful degrees and a dew point of 52 degrees, of course a humidity of 90%.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: shrimp and spinach omelet, traditional omelet with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, Raspberry oatmeal breakfast cake, French breakfast puffs, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Good morning.

The San Juan NWS gives our friend CaribBoy some hope with 98L.

GFS AND THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY SHOW ONLY LIMITED AGREEMENT ON THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOGS
ITS PATH MOST OF THE TIME AND THEN SHUNTS IT TO THE NORTHEAST JUST
BEFORE ARRIVING AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS
SHOWS THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL
AREA ON THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WITH PATH AND TIMING STILL
UNCERTAIN THIS LOW WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...
Mornin'


505. VR46L
Quoting 504. GatorWX:
Mornin'




Morning Josh !

Yep thats where the weather is at...

506. VR46L
BTW everyone else Good Morning too!
Quoting 505. VR46L:


Morning Josh !

Yep thats where the weather is at...



Taking its time too!
509. VR46L
I find it interesting that the Navy Site is still tracking Ex Karen

we are in the age where tds are becoming rarer. difference is the classifiers.
Good morning everyone!

8 AM TWO for 98L.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
5 AM PDT TWO for 94E up to 40%.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
About to make the drive from Raleigh to the Outer Banks. Looks like ex Karen is waiting on me. Should mean making good time impossible but guess ill find out. No worse than driving straight into Sandy last year. Ill be sure to let everyone know what days I'm going next year so you can plan to avoid the area haha.
I think the wording of Doc's blog caption should be 98L no threat YET!


Euro tracks 98L into the NE Caribbean.

98 seems to be on the move not worried about the system making it to the conus but i fear this could be a bad one for the northern leewards and eastern windwards.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro tracks 98L into the NE Caribbean.



IMHO, no threat at all. Doc said so. Models have been horrendous this year. Just look at what you said about Karen turning and heading to FL as a strong TS or Cat 1, never happened though some models hinted. Cant believe everything you see :-) Just a bust season thats all.
Still not sold that we wont see a major this season as the MJO is about to move into our area at the end of the month.

GFS moves the MJO in mid month but I think it will be here more likely toward the end of the month as per the Euro

GFS


while most had cyclones dancing around euro has been steadfast with very little development.
Pretty cold in Asheville this morning... I think the low temperature reach 43 degrees overnight.
Quoting 522. Bluestorm5:
Pretty cold in Asheville this morning... I think the low temperature reach 43 degrees overnight.


Geesh! I can't wait for some of that to finally filter into FL come either December or January. It's 73 here in Orlando with a dewpoint of 70 right now however it does feel a little like fall this morning as there is a nice N breeze.
Quoting 516. StormTrackerScott:
I think the wording of Doc's blog caption should be 98L no threat YET!



It won't be a threat at all. Whatever forms we will torn apart by 35 knots of shear in the central Atlantic.
Low getting itself more closed. But is still elongated.

Quoting 517. StormTrackerScott:
Euro tracks 98L into the NE Caribbean.



Only one model. But even that is enough to get CariBoy excited.
Where is everyone? This blog is more boring than the season!
Quoting 528. FunnelVortex:
Where is everyone? This blog is more boring than the season!




GFS giving me a snow potential next week, I am going to keep my fingers crossed.

Quoting 524. StormTrackerScott:


Geesh! I can't wait for some of that to finally filter into FL come either December or January. It's 73 here in Orlando with a dewpoint of 70 right now however it does feel a little like fall this morning as there is a nice N breeze.


Yeah it felt great when i took my son to school this AM. Can't wait till it cools off tonight.
Good Morning. The reason that the Sept 10th period is considered the peak of the Atlantic season is because that is when sheer is lowest in the MDR and SST's are the warmest.

Going into October, sheers starts to rise again and SST's start to cool again. SST's aside for the moment. sheer is starting to increase in earnest in the Central Atlantic again and around pockets in the Caribbean and Conus because of jet stream activity (Link).

I would not expect any tropical formation on the Atlantic anytime in the near future; pretty hostile sheer environment out there.
good morning!:)
Some interesting to-date 2013 facts:

Lowest Atlantic ACE-per-storm (1960-2013):

2-13

Lowest US tornado count (1954-2013):

2-13

However, last week's EF-4 tornado in Nebraska was only the fifth October F4/EF4 ever recorded in the US since 1950. The map below shows the location of the previous four. (Source: Tornado History Project)

2-13

Last week's Black Hills Blizzard was the most extreme winter storm on record for so early in any region of the United States. However, though a whopping 58" of snow fell just four days ago, it's all but gone now, with just a few small patches leftover as seen in the images below from (respectively) October 05 and today (and shown in this nice animation).

2-13

2-13

(Bonus factoid: two of the top three all-time heaviest snowfalls in Rapid City happened this year. Last week's is the second heaviest ever; third heaviest was just six months ago.)
Looking good......

Quoting 532. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. The reason that the Sept 10th period is considered the peak of the Atlantic season is because that is when sheer is lowest in the MDR and SST's are the warmest.

Going into October, sheers starts to rise again and SST's start to cool again. SST's aside for the moment. sheer is starting to increase in earnest in the Central Atlantic again and around pockets in the Caribbean and Conus because of jet stream activity (Link).

I would not expect any tropical formation on the Atlantic anytime in the near future; pretty hostile sheer environment out there.


Thats it. I'm done with hurricane season.

Now could someone bring me one of these?

Quoting 527. FunnelVortex:


Only one model. But even that is enough to get CariBoy excited.

the models have been trending S and Wward so it may be one model now but tomorrow or Friday half of the models could be putting it in the Caribbean
but I say what ever happens will happen it will take a few days before it threaten land if it does at all so sit back with a margarita and chill till about Sunday or Monday
24W

RE: Post#534
Thanks Nea for the interesting facts..
Tried the animation link but no worky.. :)

Edit: Link is all good now..
Quoting 534. Neapolitan:
Some interesting to-date 2013 facts:

Lowest Atlantic ACE-per-storm (1960-2013):

2-13

Lowest US tornado count (1954-2013):

2-13

However, last week's EF-4 tornado in Nebraska was only the fifth October F4/EF4 ever recorded in the US since 1950. The map below shows the location of the previous four. (Source: Tornado History Project)

2-13

Last week's Black Hills Blizzard was the most extreme winter storm on record for so early in any region of the United States. However, though a whopping 55" of snow fell just four days ago, it's all but gone now, with just a few small patches leftover as seen in the images below from (respectively) October 05 and yesterday (and shown in this nice animation).

2-13

2-13

(Bonus: two of the top three all-time heaviest snowfalls in Rapid City happened this year. Last week's is the second heaviest ever; third heaviest was just six months ago.)


I think we are going to see many more heavy snow outbreaks as well as tornado outbreaks to end the year as nuetral to a slow trend toward El-Nino seems to be in the cards this winter.
With the appearance of such a strong sub tropical jet across the eastern seaboard, there is almost no possibility of a storm reaching the gulf of east coast of the CONUS. The jet stream extends westward into the Pacific, almost beyond Hawaii. Pineapple Express? I don't think the 'beloved' models take this factor into account, but I suspect that Mother Earth is trying to tell us that 2013 hurricane season is closed on the east coast. Just MHO.
Quoting 540. StormTrackerScott:


I think we are going to see many more heavy snow outbreaks as well as tornado outbreaks to end the year as nuetral to a slow trend toward El-Nino seems to be in the cards this winter.


I hope you're right, because I want a good winter storm.
Quoting 534. Neapolitan:
Some interesting to-date 2013 facts:

Lowest Atlantic ACE-per-storm (1960-2013):

2-13

Lowest US tornado count (1954-2013):

2-13

However, last week's EF-4 tornado in Nebraska was only the fifth October F4/EF4 ever recorded in the US since 1950. The map below shows the location of the previous four. (Source: Tornado History Project)

2-13

Last week's Black Hills Blizzard was the most extreme winter storm on record for so early in any region of the United States. However, though a whopping 55" of snow fell just four days ago, it's all but gone now, with just a few small patches leftover as seen in the images below from (respectively) October 05 and yesterday (and shown in this nice animation).

2-13

2-13

(Bonus: two of the top three all-time heaviest snowfalls in Rapid City happened this year. Last week's is the second heaviest ever; third heaviest was just six months ago.)

This year's tornado season has been weird. Relatively quiet until mid-May and then two EF5s -- one being the second-costliest on record, the other being the largest ever observed and arguably the strongest on record -- with many other violent tornadoes impacting population centers. Let's add the EF3 (was downgraded because radar can't be used to rate tornadoes...) that sat west of Bennington for an hour too. And now Wayne.
Quoting 511. FtMyersgal:
Good morning everyone!


LOL
Quoting 539. pcola57:
RE: Post#534
Thanks Nea for the interesting facts..
Tried the animation link but no worky.. :)
Thanks. Fixed...
546. VR46L
Quoting 536. FunnelVortex:


Thats it. I'm done with hurricane season.

Now could someone bring me one of these?



Thats a beautiful Image .
Quoting 530. FunnelVortex:
GFS giving me a snow potential next week, I am going to keep my fingers crossed.

More rain for me as temps will not be cold enough.
Quoting 548. washingtonian115:
More rain for me as temps will not be cold enough.


Well, I'm hoping we get our first winter storm before December 1st this year.
550. VR46L
Quoting 547. FunnelVortex:


You may want to bookmark this site, it has a lot of interesting stuff.


Love that blog, check the blog usually at the weekend , its usually has something cool in it !
Quoting 550. VR46L:


Love that blog, check the blog usually at the weekend , its usually has something cool in it !


I like looking at older entries as well.
Just updated
554. VR46L
Quoting 552. FunnelVortex:


I like looking at older entries as well.


Did you see the entry on the micro storm in the WPac , it was very cool
555. VR46L
556. vis0

CREDIT: erau.edu SUBJ: ExExEx Karen
(married to Tropics, GoMx (twice))

PERIOD: 201310-09'1245
UTC

IMG TYPE: Visible (only
used a bit of my 1994 Fractal  filter to enhance cloud heights)

FULL SIZE 4.7x larger (2x larger than NOAAs public)



 Free Image
Hosting by
imgbox.com

EP, 14, 2013100912, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1284W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting 551. StormTrackerScott:
We just need to reach 0.5 to be at the threshold for an El-Nino right?
The Atlantic is, um, warm. Obviously, warm waters aren't all we need for hurricanes, but they play a major role. It's just hard to believe we are in October and still sitting at 2 hurricanes with no majors. If these anomalies continue, we might can sneak out at least one more hurricane along the way.

CMC still calling for a potent storm out of 98L, now that is if it takes that track, believe it or not conditions are more favorable in the North Central Atlantic, then they are in the MDR, Caribbean, East Coast, and GOM.

Beautiful weather coming thu the end of this week..
Quoting 558. GTstormChaserCaleb:
We just need to reach 0.5 to be at the threshold for an El-Nino right?


Yeah .05. Still got a ways to go though.
Quoting 560. GTstormChaserCaleb:








Gulf of Hundorus may be the place to watch over the coming days as the tail end of a cold front is settling into that area.

Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:


Gulf of Hundorus may be the place to watch over the coming days as the tail end of a cold front is settling into that area.

Well you did post the MJO forecast which is showing some upward motion by the 2nd to last week of the month and we got to keep in mind that's around the time of the secondary peak.
The W-Pac needs to show the Atlantic how to develope tropical cyclones.

You really have to feel for those people in Luzon as they are always getting hammered by typhoons.
Quoting 569. StormTrackerScott:
The W-Pac needs to show the Atlantic how to develope tropical cyclones.




then once it dos the Atlantic will start takeing notes from the W PAC on how the storm can be come stronger
This storm caught my attention in the North Atlantic, a strong Non-tropical system.

Quoting MississippiWx:
The Atlantic is, um, warm. Obviously, warm waters aren't all we need for hurricanes, but they play a major role. It's just hard to believe we are in October and still sitting at 2 hurricanes with no majors. If these anomalies continue, we might can sneak out at least one more hurricane along the way.


Most of the Atlantic ranges from very slightly above normal to very slightly below normal. Since that's a temperature anomaly map, not an SST map, it makes the ocean look warmer than it is. Only the far north Atlantic has SST's significantly above normal, which has no effect on tropical storm formation. The only really significant place with temperatures below normal is the east central Atlantic, south of the CV Islands. That does have an effect on tropical storm formation.
wow i cannot believe..72 degree's in the daytime ..LOVE IT
Quoting 510. islander101010:
we are in the age where tds are becoming rarer. difference is the classifiers.


This is an interesting statement. Is there a list of number of tropical depressions by year for the Atlantic Basin?
Quoting 572. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This storm caught my attention in the North Atlantic, a strong Non-tropical system.



Ha I got one for you look at this on the Euro as it send a Superstorm into Alaska.

577. MahFL
Quoting 524. StormTrackerScott:


Geesh! I can't wait for some of that to finally filter into FL come either December or January. It's 73 here in Orlando with a dewpoint of 70 right now however it does feel a little like fall this morning as there is a nice N breeze.


It was a chilly 62F in Orange Park this am. We have mist and drizzle right now from the Northeaster.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
This storm caught my attention in the North Atlantic, a strong Non-tropical system.


Caleb, keep an eye on that area from now until spring. The North Atlantic in Fall and Winter develops storms that make most hurricanes look like a passing shower. More merchant shipping has been lost to weather in the North Atlantic than any other part of the world.
it not going to happern anyhow!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30
21:00 PM JST October 9 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 14.2N 148.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.7N 144.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM NARI (T1325)
21:00 PM JST October 9 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nari (998 hPa) located at 14.3N 129.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 126.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 15.7N 123.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 15.8N 119.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Quoting 553. StormTrackerScott:
Just updated
fish storm
first landfall

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2013
14:30 PM IST October 9 2013
======================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over North Andaman Sea moved west northwestwards and crossed Andaman Islands near Mayabandar between 7:00-8:00 AM UTC (1230-1330 PM IST) and lays center over east central Bay of Bengal near 13.5N 92.5E, and about 220 km north northwest of Port Blair (Andaman Island), 950 km southeast of Paradip (India), 1100 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam (India).

The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and continue to move west northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind of 95-100 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
===========================
12 HRS: 14.5N 91.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 15.5N 89.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 16.5N 87.0E - 80-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 18.0N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting 571. Tazmanian:



then once it dos the Atlantic will start takeing notes from the W PAC on how the storm can be come stronger


atlantic can make em we just got to wait a while is all

what happens IF..each year the oceans heat up just a lil bit less,each year yes we do get hurricanes but..each year less and less...we all must remember..we are inbetween Ice ages..in earths terms we humans live a blip in tiime...it would be a good idea for scientists to keep track of the storms each year..and watch for the less heating of the oceans.
Quoting 569. StormTrackerScott:
The W-Pac needs to show the Atlantic how to develope tropical cyclones.



If the Atlantic Ocean was the same size as the Pacific Ocean, we'd be in trouble.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
WHOA!


Desperation is setting in all over the blog, as Caleb posts the GEM for 240 hours out and is amazed to find a giant hurricane in the mid-Atlantic. :-)
1st nor Ester of the season for the E cost today
Quoting 576. StormTrackerScott:


Ha I got one for you look at this on the Euro as it send a Superstorm into Alaska.

here is current sat shot

Quoting 585. Sfloridacat5:


If the Atlantic Ocean was the same size as the Pacific Ocean, we'd be in trouble.


In a few hundren million years it will be.
DOC...when the hurricane season ends...can you do a page on this one day?......................

BY GERALD E. MARSH


CHICAGO — Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age.

What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth’s surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don’t know.

Even if all the temperature increase over the last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of a little over one degree Fahrenheit — an increase well within natural variations over the last few thousand years.

While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the next century would cause humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be within our ability to adapt.

Entering a new ice age, however, would be catastrophic for the continuation of modern civilization.

One has only to look at maps showing the extent of the great ice sheets during the last Ice Age to understand what a return to ice age conditions would mean. Much of Europe and North-America were covered by thick ice, thousands of feet thick in many areas and the world as a whole was much colder.

The last “little” Ice Age started as early as the 14th century when the Baltic Sea froze over followed by unseasonable cold, storms, and a rise in the level of the Caspian Sea. That was followed by the extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland and the loss of grain cultivation in Iceland. Harvests were even severely reduced in Scandinavia And this was a mere foreshadowing of the miseries to come.

By the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, wiping out farms and entire villages. In England, the River Thames froze during the winter, and in 1780, New York Harbor froze. Had this continued, history would have been very different. Luckily, the decrease in solar activity that caused the Little Ice Age ended and the result was the continued flowering of modern civilization.

There were very few Ice Ages until about 2.75 million years ago when Earth’s climate entered an unusual period of instability. Starting about a million years ago cycles of ice ages lasting about 100,000 years, separated by relatively short interglacial perioods, like the one we are now living in became the rule. Before the onset of the Ice Ages, and for most of the Earth’s history, it was far warmer than it is today.

Indeed, the Sun has been getting brighter over the whole history of the Earth and large land plants have flourished. Both of these had the effect of dropping carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to the lowest level in Earth’s long history.

Five hundred million years ago, carbon dioxide concentrations were over 13 times current levels; and not until about 20 million years ago did carbon dioxide levels drop to a little less than twice what they are today.

It is possible that moderately increased carbon dioxide concentrations could extend the current interglacial period. But we have not reached the level required yet, nor do we know the optimum level to reach.

So, rather than call for arbitrary limits on carbon dioxide emissions, perhaps the best thing the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the climatology community in general could do is spend their efforts on determining the optimal range of carbon dioxide needed to extend the current interglacial period indefinitely.

NASA has predicted that the solar cycle peaking in 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries and should cause a very significant cooling of Earth’s climate. Will this be the trigger that initiates a new Ice Age?

We ought to carefully consider this possibility before we wipe out our current prosperity by spending trillions of dollars to combat a perceived global warming threat that may well prove to be only a will-o-the-wisp.



Gerald Marsh is a retired physicist from the Argonne National Laboratory and a former consultant to the Department of Defense on strategic nuclear technology and policy in the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton Administration. Readers may e-mail him at gemarsh@uchicago.edu


Quoting 591. hydrus:
its pretty bleak hydrus so much so that I've started to scale back back the cane section on my blog and by oct 15 will have a full winter blog up and running
Now this is more like it!

Quoting LargoFl:
what happens IF..each year the oceans heat up just a lil bit less,each year yes we do get hurricanes but..each year less and less...we all must remember..we are inbetween Ice ages..in earths terms we humans live a blip in tiime...it would be a good idea for scientists to keep track of the storms each year..and watch for the less heating of the oceans.

It's not clear to me that the oceans are heating or cooling, but we have very little comprehensive history of ocean temperatures. Until the 70's, when temperature sensing satellites were developed, all our knowledge of ocean temperatures came from shipping reports, which is like saying a comprehensive record of temperatures along major freeways gives us a good record of temperatures in an entire state. Most AGW advocates, as I understand it, would say that oceans are warming, but the question in terms of tropical storms is where the most warming is taking place. If it's in the Arctic and North Atlantic, the effect on tropical storms, if any, would take a long time to recognize. SST's are only part of the puzzle when it comes to tropical storms, as we've seen this year, with at least average SST's and far below average tropical storm formation.
Quoting 590. FunnelVortex:


In a few hundren million years it will be.


I can't wait that long.

Nice info from Wiki
The Pacific Ocean is the largest of the Earth's oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic in the north to the Southern Ocean (or, depending on definition, to Antarctica) in the south, bounded by Asia and Australia in the west, and the Americas in the east.

At 165.25 million square kilometres (63.8 million square miles) in area, this largest division of the World Ocean – and, in turn, the hydrosphere – covers about 46% of the Earth's water surface and about one-third of its total surface area, making it larger than all of the Earth's land area combined.[1] The equator subdivides it into the North Pacific Ocean and South Pacific Ocean, with two exceptions: the Galápagos and Gilbert Islands, while straddling the equator, are deemed wholly within the South Pacific.[2] The Mariana Trench in the western North Pacific is the deepest point in the world, reaching a depth of 10,911 metres (35,797 ft).[3]
What's the word on el nino/ la nina status?
Quoting 597. Gatorstorm:
What's the word on el nino/ la nina status?



here you go


Link
Quoting LargoFl:
DOC...when the hurricane season ends...can you do a page on this one day?......................

Uh-oh....Anti-AGW post e-mail alerts are being send to all the usual bloggers...expect incoming barrage soon. :-)
Quoting 573. sar2401:

Most of the Atlantic ranges from very slightly above normal to very slightly below normal. Since that's a temperature anomaly map, not an SST map, it makes the ocean look warmer than it is. Only the far north Atlantic has SST's significantly above normal, which has no effect on tropical storm formation. The only really significant place with temperatures below normal is the east central Atlantic, south of the CV Islands. That does have an effect on tropical storm formation.
Incorrect statement. Judging by that map--reproduced below--most of the Atlantic ranges from slightly above normal to significantly above normal, with just a few scattered spots at or below normal.

sst

fall time my friends!!!
Quoting 600. sar2401:

Uh-oh....Anti-AGW post e-mail alerts are being send to all the usual bloggers...expect incoming barrage soon. :-)
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...
Quoting 516. StormTrackerScott:
I think the wording of Doc's blog caption should be 98L no threat YET!
Basking in the glory of your incredibly accurate predictions for Karen, I see!
Quoting 601. Neapolitan:
Incorrect statement. Judging by that map--reproduced below--most of the Atlantic ranges from slightly above normal to significantly above normal, with just a few scattered spots at or below normal.

sst


I like this map myself

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Just updated

There you go, complete model agreement on 98L...

I wonder if the same spaghetti tracks are used on every invest?
Quoting 605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I like this map myself



Still see La Ninia
Quoting 603. LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...


I'm sure one day we will, but that will most likely be way beyond our lifetimes. :)
Quoting 595. sar2401:

It's not clear to me that the oceans are heating or cooling, but we have very little comprehensive history of ocean temperatures. Until the 70's, when temperature sensing satellites were developed, all our knowledge of ocean temperatures came from shipping reports, which is like saying a comprehensive record of temperatures along major freeways gives us a good record of temperatures in an entire state. Most AGW advocates, as I understand it, would say that oceans are warming, but the question in terms of tropical storms is where the most warming is taking place. If it's in the Arctic and North Atlantic, the effect on tropical storms, if any, would take a long time to recognize. SST's are only part of the puzzle when it comes to tropical storms, as we've seen this year, with at least average SST's and far below average tropical storm formation.
It may not be clear to you, but thousands of oceanographers and climate scientists are pretty darn convinced:

ocean

(For the record, it occurs to me that an "AGW advocate" would be, by definition, someone promoting the continued heating of the planet by man's actions. As such, wouldn't that term best be used to describe folks denying both that the planet is warming and that man has a role in that warming?)
Quoting 603. LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...


Ice ages ?

Your serious,, with C02 @ 400 ppm?

Okay.


How does a Ice Age relate to our current terra-forming of the Planet Via burning sequestered Carbon in fossil Fuels ?





What ocean heating reveals about global warming

Filed under: Climate modelling Climate Science El Nino Instrumental Record Oceans skeptics — stefan @ 25 September 2013

The heat content of the oceans is growing and growing. That means that the greenhouse effect has not taken a pause and the cold sun is not noticeably slowing global warming.

NOAA posts regularly updated measurements of the amount of heat stored in the bulk of the oceans. For the upper 2000 m (deeper than that not much happens) it looks like this:

Quoting 609. Naga5000:


I'm sure one day we will, but that will most likely be way beyond our lifetimes. :)
maybe sometimes things happen in but a blink of a eye

wooly mammoths of Siberian knows how quick climate can change they have been found frozen with buttercups still in there mouths and bellies like they were grazing when it happened
Narda hanging on barely.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.

NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

616. VR46L
Personally I prefer this Map ... Instead of the illusion of warmer looking SST Near me than the GOM ....







Quoting LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...

LOL. Seriously, though, since I'm no paleontologist, has the earth, on average, been cooler longer or warmer longer? The ice ages leave behind a lot of visible evidence, like a relatively flat northern Ohio, where the southern extent of the ice sheet bulldozed the land and left a lot of big rocks behind when it retreated, compared to southern Ohio, which is still hilly because the ice sheet never got there. Warm periods leave mostly tree ring and fossil evidence, something the average person isn't going to see every day. In particular, since man has been around, have we been average colder or average warmer? I have no clue about the answer, but I'm sure someone here does.

fall picture!!
Quoting 617. sar2401:

LOL. Seriously, though, since I'm no paleontologist, has the earth, on average, been cooler longer or warmer longer? The ice ages leave behind a lot of visible evidence, like a relatively flat northern Ohio, where the southern extent of the ice sheet bulldozed the land and left a lot of big rocks behind when it retreated, compared to southern Ohio, which is still hilly because the ice sheet never got there. Warm periods leave mostly tree ring and fossil evidence, something the average person isn't going to see every day. In particular, since man has been around, have we been average colder or average warmer? I have no clue about the answer, but I'm sure someone here does.
well im not continuing this today..I asked doc if he could, make this a day topic after the season ends and the blog slows down..I know he belives in todays global warming and thats ok, but there also is the very real looming ice age as well and with the present algae blooms and expanding plant life which eat co2..its a valid discussion topic for after the season ends...because co2 in itself is what keeps us from going into another ice age among other things like the earths orbit etc..but enough..tropical season is still here..and this topic is off topic today..
Lawdy,...



based on isotopes in ice.
90W Rainbow Loop

Quoting 619. LargoFl:
well im not continuing this today..I asked doc if he could, make this a day topic after the season ends and the blog slows down..I know he belives in todays global warming and thats ok, but there also is the very real looming ice age as well and with the present algae blooms and expanding plant life which eat co2..its a valid discussion topic for after the season ends...because co2 in itself is what keeps us from going into another ice age among other things like the earths orbit etc..but enough..tropical season is still here..and this topic is off topic today..


Algae, like most plants have limiting agents in energy production. CO2 is important, but without Phosphorus, Nitrogen, Potassium, Iron (in the case of many Alage species), etc (many others), added CO2 does nothing as energy production is limited by the availability of other elements.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Going down into the 60's at night all week and 83 to 86 all week good bye! 90'S!!:)
Quoting 625. SFLWeatherman:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
Going down into the 60's at night all week and 83 to 86 all week good bye! 90'S!!:)
yessss..its in the 70's here by me..feels wonderful!
I see an AGW vs. Ice Age debate has started...
No debate there, save for in some thought process, far removed from Science,..
Quoting 602. hurricanes2018:

fall time my friends!!!


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
Quoting 603. LargoFl:
no not at all, im asking doc if once the hurricane season is over and the blog slows down..if we could one day discuss ice ages..NOT global warming..dont get me started sar...


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
Quoting 604. Xulonn:
Basking in the glory of your incredibly accurate predictions for Karen, I see!


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
Quoting 627. LargoFl:
yessss..its in the 70's here by me..feels wonderful!


It's 79° in Fort Myers Largo. Cool front should reach her real soon. Lows here the rest of the week low 70's to upper 60's. Can't wait!
Quoting 609. Naga5000:


I'm sure one day we will, but that will most likely be way beyond our lifetimes. :)


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
Quoting 611. Neapolitan:
It may not be clear to you, but thousands of oceanographers and climate scientists are pretty darn convinced:

ocean

(For the record, it occurs to me that an "AGW advocate" would be, by definition, someone promoting the continued heating of the planet by man's actions. As such, wouldn't that term best be used to describe folks denying both that the planet is warming and that man has a role in that warming?)


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
Quoting 633. FtMyersgal:


It's 79° in Fort Myers Largo. Cool front should reach her real soon. Lows here the rest of the week low 70's to upper 60's. Can't wait!
oh yes feels great huh..
Quoting 634. HeinrichFrogswatter:


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself


Please refrain from acting like a mod.
Quoting 612. Patrap:


Ice ages ?

Your serious,, with C02 @ 400 ppm?

Okay.


How does a Ice Age relate to our current terra-forming of the Planet Via burning sequestered Carbon in fossil Fuels ?







please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 613. Patrap:
What ocean heating reveals about global warming

Filed under: Climate modelling Climate Science El Nino Instrumental Record Oceans skeptics — stefan @ 25 September 2013

The heat content of the oceans is growing and growing. That means that the greenhouse effect has not taken a pause and the cold sun is not noticeably slowing global warming.

NOAA posts regularly updated measurements of the amount of heat stored in the bulk of the oceans. For the upper 2000 m (deeper than that not much happens) it looks like this:



please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
A good way to learn about Carbon being released into the atmosphere via fossil fuel burning, is learning the Types of Carbon Present and how it got there,as it matters greatly to understand this basic fact.

Overview of Greenhouse Gases
Quoting 614. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe sometimes things happen in but a blink of a eye

wooly mammoths of Siberian knows how quick climate can change they have been found frozen with buttercups still in there mouths and bellies like they were grazing when it happened


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself
Just because fertilizer from people upstream is causing toxic algae blooms in your local lakes and rivers doesn't mean the ocean is blooming with algae.

As NAGA mentioned there are limiting factors to growth in the deep ocean. Iron is one major limiting factor far off shore, but spraying iron filings from a plane had very disappointing results, in terms of increased carbon capture (marine snow) on the bottom of the ocean.

Even worse, when fertilizers and blooms flow into the Gulf from the Mississippi, they die, sink to the bottom, rot and eat up all the oxygen, and create huge dead zones that kill all kinds of fish and animals for miles around.

The ocean has taken up about as much of our C02 slack as it can. We need to back off.

One of the cool things about the SAL layer that effects hurricanes and shades the ocean surface, is that the red dust also has Iron oxide in it. That can help increase ocean algae production, but I don't know if that has been studied.