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98L and Fred-ex pose little threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2009

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.

Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.

At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."


Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Even though we could get another named storm or so, it is rather difficult to get named storms in October during El Nino years, atleast from my experience.


1997 doesn't agree with you
but yep unless something changes I don't see much
now if the MJO comes then things are different =P
Quoting futuremet:
Initially, the CFS expected the Caribbean to shut down in October...




yup



there is no way this year we will get pass 10 storms or even if we even make that
early oct. should be a good kickoff



cv season is almost shut as well very calm
Quoting JLPR:


1997 doesn't agree with you
but yep unless something changes I don't see much
now if the MJO comes then thing are different =P


the MJO wont help not in EL Nino years
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



cv season is almost shut as well very calm



yes it is most likey overe
tropical cyclone activity not expected during next 48 hrs
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
tropical cyclone activity not expected during next 48 hrs


Yea that was the shortest discussion in a while
September 20 and no worries in the tropics.
:P noaa saysa no tropical formation in 48 hrs.
Quoting Tazmanian:



me too


Did an extensive report on the last season (2008-2009)

An example is this tropical cyclone report on Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish (17U)


Quoting Tazmanian:


the MJO wont help not in EL Nino years
Yeah it will.
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, the MJO will cause a significant swing in tropical cyclone activity during October. I was puzzled over the past weeks of why the CFS is expects anomalously high shear in the western Caribbean when an MJO will move into the area. A planetary scale pattern like the MJO have synoptic and mesoscale features embedded in it. The preliminary CFS forecasts for October were not initializing the wind shear/MJO relationship properly. Surface convergence at the surface often creates a positive feedback of upper high pressure systems in the upper air. Those unusually high SSTs we have been seeing in the Bahamas and the GOM are working their way to the Caribbea--so we can expect this to kick some activity. Hopefully a potent ridge will set up across the east CONUS, and steer these systems west....I doubt that will happen, however.


That does not sound good for me, Grothar, and everyone in South Florida. What do you think the chances are of a RI like WIlma down there again FutureMet?
choi whan dissipated >:O grrr no invests
Quoting JLPR:


1997 doesn't agree with you
but yep unless something changes I don't see much
now if the MJO comes then things are different =P



Yea,
I'm aware that there are October storms in El Nino years but it tends to be where the seasons shuts off.

Quoting futuremet:
Initially, the CFS expected the Caribbean to shut down in October...



Later in the period as you can see on the CFS shear map forecast... you can see the arrival of a rather strong subtropical yet towards the beginning of 2010.

Also, latest ENSO trends are still showing a moderate El Nino still persisting...



There's a good chance that we might be experiencing some unusual SVR WX down in the S for quite sometime and I won't be surprised that some state(s) might have wished to received to receive a couple tropical disturbances than to experience a tornado, large hail, etc... which can be localized but with higher damage potential than a hurricane due to El Nino.
517. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:



I'm aware that there are October storms in El Nino years but it tends to be where the seasons shuts off.


yep
I just cant imagine anything in November =P
It would be a strong cold front all the way south to the islands with a hurricane beside it? xD
Since winter wants to start already that should shut down the Atlantic.

The problem is all the fuel in the Western Caribbean will remain unused for next year :|
JLPR

Look at Erika 12 years ago lol

The stats so far

6 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 majors and 3 unnamed storms.

lol


Hurricane Juan near peak intensity
Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle




An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on the 26th.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of the 29th. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on the 29th, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on the 30th over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of the 3rd. Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record across West Virginia.
[edit] Impact

Hurricane Juan caused $1.5 billion in damage (1985 US dollars, $2.71 billion in 2005 USD), most of it from crop damage. At the time, Juan was the 8th costliest hurricane in history, and is currently the 24th. [1] It later caused extensive flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states as a partial remnant, causing an additional $1.3 billion and 50 deaths not included in its final effects.
[edit] Gulf of Mexico

Early in its lifetime, Juan caused 25 to 35 foot (7.5 to 10.5 meter) swells, damaging several offshore oil platforms and overturning two. High winds prior to the storm's development encumbered evacuation efforts. Because of this, 9 people died, either from toppled oil rigs or from drowning while being transported from the rigs. The oil industry suffered greatly from the hurricane, both due to the lack of production and from lost oil rigs.
[edit] Northern Gulf Coast
Juan's storm total rainfall.

Because the hurricane looped twice near the coastline, Hurricane Juan brought extensive rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast, particularly across Louisiana and Texas. Deweyville, Texas received a maximum of 8.7 inches (220 mm) and Mobile, Alabama reached a total of 11.9 inches (302 mm), while Louisiana reported over to 10 inches (254 mm), with a storm maximum of 17.78 inches (452 mm) of rain in Galliano according to information compiled from the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Storm surge was moderate, peaking at 8.2 feet (2.5 m) on the southern portion of Louisiana, though tides returned to below normal levels when offshore winds forced the surge out to sea. A few small tornadoes were reported along Juan's outer edges, though little damage was reported.

Severe coastal flooding resulted in significant crop damage and loss of livestock in southern Louisiana. Thousands of houses were flooded and destroyed, mainly around Lake Pontchartrain, though property damage was seen from Texas through the Florida Panhandle, albeit much less than Louisiana. 2 people drowned from the flood waters in Louisiana, and 1 person died in a boating accident of the Texas coast. There were 1,357 injuries reported by FEMA, though most were minor. [2] Total damage from Hurricane Juan amounted to $1.5 billion (1985 USD), making it one of the costliest hurricanes at the time and making it the costliest non-retired hurricane name
El Nino's return to the Pacific after a four-year absence changes the hurricane season forecast from near to below normal for tropical storm systems to above normal, says Jim Weyman, Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.
There is also a greater possibility of late-season tropical cyclones, less rainfall during the wet season and more high surf.
This is troubling because many parts of the state have been dry in the past few months, he said.
But he had good news for surfers. Usually in El Nino years, more high surf occurs on the North Shore as storm systems push closer to Hawaii in the winter, he said.
El Nino is expected to continue through the winter and into next year, NOAA said in a report yesterday on its Web site.
El Ninos normally last about a year and have wide-ranging impacts. In the past they have caused damaging winter storms in California, more storms across the southern United States, severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia, NOAA said.
Been a Cape Verde year

NHC should issue a bulletin:

DUE TO EL NINO CONDITIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 8 MONTHS, UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 1, 2010.


The preceding paragraph was a joke and not intended to portray a sense of safety to those living in Hurricane prone areas.
Quoting Grothar:
El Nino's return to the Pacific after a four-year absence changes the hurricane season forecast from near to below normal for tropical storm systems to above normal, says Jim Weyman, Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.
There is also a greater possibility of late-season tropical cyclones, less rainfall during the wet season and more high surf.
This is troubling because many parts of the state have been dry in the past few months, he said.
But he had good news for surfers. Usually in El Nino years, more high surf occurs on the North Shore as storm systems push closer to Hawaii in the winter, he said.
El Nino is expected to continue through the winter and into next year, NOAA said in a report yesterday on its Web site.
El Ninos normally last about a year and have wide-ranging impacts. In the past they have caused damaging winter storms in California, more storms across the southern United States, severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia, NOAA said.
Grothar!!!
525. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
JLPR

Look at Erika 12 years ago lol



yeah now that one was impressive
for a moment I thought that was the track that Erika from this year would take
I was very wrong :P
Quoting JLPR:


yeah now that one was impressive
for a moment I thought that was the track that Erika from this year would take
I was very wrong :P


The track of that storm was the initial forecast of Erika this yr by the ECMWF.
527. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Been a Cape Verde year



Could you imagine if the Cape Verde season would have been shut down this year xD
it would had been ridiculously quiet
Quoting WxLogic:


Later in the period as you can see on the CFS shear map forecast... you can see the arrival of a rather strong subtropical yet towards the beginning of 2010.

Also, latest ENSO trends are still showing a moderate El Nino still persisting...



There's a good chance that we might be experiencing some unusual SVR WX down in the S for quite sometime and I won't be surprised that some state(s) might have wished to received to receive a couple tropical disturbances than to experience a tornado, large hail, etc... which can be localized but with higher damage potential than a hurricane due to El Nino.
this is highly possible as we progress into fall winter season and how cold the airmasses from nw really get to collide with the warmer and moister air from gom thoses sst's havent cooled so now we depend on the cooling affect from the nw to droppem but thats a slower process then when rtn flow comes in off gom it will in all likly hood be more energized to create the severe and heavy winter weather
Quoting Weather456:
I cannot wait until the Southern Hemisphere Season starts. You can track up to 30 cyclones between the SW, SE, and SW pacific Basin.
lol thought I was the only one thinking something like that.... they are prolly going to be busier than us this year, too....
Quoting WxLogic:


Later in the period as you can see on the CFS shear map forecast... you can see the arrival of a rather strong subtropical yet towards the beginning of 2010.

Also, latest ENSO trends are still showing a moderate El Nino still persisting...



There's a good chance that we might be experiencing some unusual SVR WX down in the S for quite sometime and I won't be surprised that some state(s) might have wished to received to receive a couple tropical disturbances than to experience a tornado, large hail, etc... which can be localized but with higher damage potential than a hurricane due to El Nino.

It seems the CFS and other ensembles consistently overestimate the true strength of ENSO conditions. But despite cooling in Nino 1+2, an unfavorable negative PDO, an unfavorable positive SOI; a west based weak El Nino looks to be a good estimate for the upcoming Fall months.
Hurricane Paloma formed during a weak upward MJO



Quoting Blizzard92:

It seems the CFS and other ensembles consistently overestimate the true strength of ENSO conditions. But despite cooling in Nino 1+2, an unfavorable negative PDO, an unfavorable positive SOI; a west based weak El Nino looks to be a good estimate for the upcoming Fall months.


As long as we don't end up in a La Chinga, I am ok with that...
533. IKE
Bye-bye Fred. Bye-bye 98L....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

I have seen a-lot of you people ridicule others for saying the season was over a month ago. Looks like they were the ones who were right!
Quoting BahaHurican:
lol thought I was the only one thinking something like that.... they are prolly going to be busier than us this year, too....


They are very good training exercises.
Quoting canenizzle:
I have seen a-lot of you people ridicule others for saying the season was over a month ago. Looks like they were the ones who were right!


Haven't you seen the last few posts? There's a high chance of a late season!
537. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
NHC should issue a bulletin:

DUE TO EL NINO CONDITIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 8 MONTHS, UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 1, 2010.


The preceding paragraph was a joke and not intended to portray a sense of safety to those living in Hurricane prone areas.


That's about the most sensible tropical weather outlook I've seen all week.
538. beell
fred and 98L report:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

A WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N72W TO 27N72W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N39W TO 14N41W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT.
Quoting futuremet:
Hurricane Paloma formed during a weak upward MJO






but that was not a El Nino
Watching the Emmy's and I hardly know any of these shows.
Quoting IKE:


That's about the most sensible tropical weather outlook I've seen all week.



heh heh heh yup
Well, the day has ended clear and dry, with no sign of Fred to speak of.... lol
FINALLY, Fred is dead
KOG & Blizzard92

Definitely valid points...

One thing to noticed too is the resemblance between El Nino/Nina conditions in 1993 and this year(as an example)... shown here as we get into Winter. Hope we don't end up with another "Super Storm". I wasn't hear in FL for that event... but from what I've read... it was definitely madness.



i think cv season is overe with
LOL, OK.

Do you guys know there is nothing wrong with an inactive season. Even though I like tracking storms you have learn when makes then tick and what don't make them tock. This year we learned the latter. You would be amazed how much you learn by re-analyzing this season which gives you a better understand of future hurricane seasons. El Nino occurs every 4-7 years so we gotta get use to this about 3 times a decade.
Has any of you been puzzled over the official NWS forecasts today. They still want to develop a ridge in the east(with a cut-ff low over the plains) while the models(even NOAA and The Weather Channel) say the opposite.

According to NOAA, an anomalously deep long-wave trough(for late September) will anchor itself along the eastern two-thirds of the nation(giving everyone in the East a taste of Fall. Including Florida). While a weak cut-off low sits over the southwest four corners region(with a weak ridge over South Texas/Mexico).

Why hasn't The National Weather Service updated their forecasts according to the models???
Quoting canenizzle:
I have seen a-lot of you people ridicule others for saying the season was over a month ago. Looks like they were the ones who were right!


It wasn't what they said, it was how they said it. If you think a Cat 5 will form next week or if you think the season is dead, provide the science behind it! I can take a SWAG (Scientific Wild A. Guess) all day long too. A blind squirell gets a nut every now and then too!

At least when Weather456, Orca, StormW, and others say things they back it up with charts, graphs, and the science they believe hols true to form their opinion. Whether they are right or wrong, at least I can understand WHY they think that way.

I mean, heck, tell me you read tea leaves or tarot cards so at least I understand where you are coming from. Even tell me the ants were running to the west and everytime they do it means a slow season.

Enough rant... It doesn't annoy me either way....
Fred...I'm so glad we had this time together...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, the day has ended clear and dry, with no sign of Fred to speak of.... lol
ding dong the fred is dead dead dead fred

lol
Quoting Hurricane009:
FINALLY, Fred is dead




yes he is dead at last
Quoting Tazmanian:



but that was not a El Nino
\

That was November, and the wind shear becomes more prevalent in the Caribbean during these times. As the positive MJO left, shear started returning over the area. This caused Paloma to weaken substantially just before landfall, and Cuba's terrains eventually finished job. It is seldom to get tropical cyclogenesis in November, even in La nina years.
553. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:
Has any of you been puzzled over the official NWS forecasts today. They still want to develop a ridge in the east(with a cut-ff low over the plains) while the models(even NOAA and The Weather Channel) say the opposite.

According to NOAA, an anomalously deep long-wave trough(for late September) will anchor itself along the eastern two-thirds of the nation(giving everyone in the East a taste of Fall. Including Florida). While a weak cut-off low sits over the southwest four corners region(with a weak ridge over South Texas/Mexico).

Why hasn't The National Weather Service updated their forecasts according to the models???


I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.
Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol
555. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think cv season is overe with


I agree with that xD
Quoting Weather456:
LOL, OK.

Do you guys know there is nothing wrong with an inactive season. Even though I like tracking storms you have learn when makes then tick and what don't make them tock. This year we learned the latter. You would be amazed how much you learn by re-analyzing this season which gives you a better understand of future hurricane seasons. El Nino occurs every 4-7 years so we gotta get use to this about 3 times a decade.


Hehe... quite true.
Quoting WxLogic:
KOG & Blizzard92

Definitely valid points...

One thing to noticed too is the resemblance between El Nino/Nina conditions in 1993 and this year(as an example)... shown here as we get into Winter. Hope we don't end up with another "Super Storm". I wasn't hear in FL for that event... but from what I've read... it was definitely madness.




Nino conditions tend to produce historically more Miller A storms that ride the east coast from the Gulf than Nina conditions, but that is only if the NAO cooperates, and with a negative PDO any chance of large scale coastal storm hinges on the forecast of the NAO this year.
559. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol


456 can you imagine a Lenny in November lol
now that would be surprising =P
Quoting Weather456:
Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol


I sensed it your synatax over the past couple of days. Sounded bored with-Ex-Fred. So why did you continue to give updates on him.
Regardless of the feeling, amongst some, that the Season is over - I, for one, will not let down my guard till the first cold (ish?) winds (mid-end Nov) come whistling down from USA.

In my mind, the Season still has just over 2 months to goa nd we are approaching that time of the Season when Hurricanes can start very quickly right on our doorstep in the Caribbean - Bay of Honduras etc.

I hope those that say "the Season is over" are correct but I am a cynic - although not nearly so cynical as Mother Nature can be!
iceman,

this is more updated


Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I sensed it your synatax over the past couple of days. Sounded bored with-Ex-Fred. So why did you continue to give updates on him.


I was, but it wouldn't be fair to those who read my blog trying to get info on him.
Quoting futuremet:
\

That was November, and the wind shear becomes more prevalent in the Caribbean during these times. As the positive MJO left, shear started returning over the area. This caused Paloma to weaken substantially just before landfall, and Cuba's terrains eventually finished job. It is seldom to get tropical cyclogenesis in November, even in La nina years.


What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us here!
Quoting JLPR:


456 can you imagine a Lenny in November lol
now that would be surprising =P


It can happen, thats why these late season storms are so uncertain. They can pop up anytime.
568. IKE
Season isn't over. There's 71 days, 4 hours and 29 minutes left. There's a 2nd peak in early October. MJO is suppose to come back by then. Probably good for 1-2 more named systems.

Saying that...this season, so far, has been a yawner.

My season prediction of 10-4-2....the 10 part, probably isn't going to happen.
Quoting SSideBrac:


What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us her!


She was a voluptuous hurricane indeed. Cayman Brac was to small to cause signficant weakening to Paloma. It eventually weakened significantly later that same day, due to increasing upper level winds from the west. It made landfall in Cuba as a weak Cat 2...
<
Quoting SSideBrac:


What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us here!
I was wondering that myself. I assume they meant Cuba as if Cayman Brac doesn't exist. May be small but still land and Paloma definitely made landfall there with no weakening whatsoever.
Quoting futuremet:


She was a voluptuous hurricane indeed. Cayman Brac was to small to cause signficant weakening to Paloma. It eventually weakened significantly later that same day, due to increasing upper level winds from the west. It made landfall in Cuba as a weak Cat 2...


Hehe... "voluptuous" nice choice of word to describe Paloma... she was definitely a "keeper" before she decided to hit land. :(
Quoting Weather456:
Fred's dead you say?

Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol



yup fred is dead
El Nino should peak sometime between November and January and will then gradually diminish as we head through the spring. This will leave neutral ENSO conditions in place for the 2010 ATL season.
Quoting WxLogic:


Hehe... quite true.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ding dong the fred is dead dead dead fred

lol
Was just singing the same tune! LOL
Quoting SSideBrac:
Regardless of the feeling, amongst some, that the Season is over - I, for one, will not let down my guard till the first cold (ish?) winds (mid-end Nov) come whistling down from USA.

In my mind, the Season still has just over 2 months to goa nd we are approaching that time of the Season when Hurricanes can start very quickly right on our doorstep in the Caribbean - Bay of Honduras etc.

I hope those that say "the Season is over" are correct but I am a cynic - although not nearly so cynical as Mother Nature can be!
ayup.

Ain't over till I've seen the last play....
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, the MJO will cause a significant swing in tropical cyclone activity during October. I was puzzled over the past weeks of why the CFS is expects anomalously high shear in the western Caribbean when an MJO will move into the area. A planetary scale pattern like the MJO have synoptic and mesoscale features embedded in it. The preliminary CFS forecasts for October were not initializing the wind shear/MJO relationship properly. Surface convergence at the surface often creates a positive feedback of upper high pressure systems in the upper air. Those unusually high SSTs we have been seeing in the Bahamas and the GOM are working their way to the Caribbea--so we can expect this to kick some activity. Hopefully a potent ridge will set up across the east CONUS, and steer these systems west....I doubt that will happen, however.


That doesn't sound good for me, Grothar, and everybody in South Florida. What do you think the chances are of another RI like Wilma down there in the Western Caribbean FutureMet?
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?
Quoting hurricane23:
El Nino should peak sometime between November and January and will then gradually diminish as we head through the spring. This will leave neutral ENSO conditions in place for the 2010 ATL season.


I do for sure foresee a busier 2010 season. There won't be or in other words... it won't take much to reheat the ATL, Carib, and GOM (but more specially the latter 2) and finally El Nino shouldn't be a prevalent as it was this year.
Quoting caneswatch:


That doesn't sound good for me, Grothar, and everybody in South Florida. What do you think the chances are of another RI like Wilma down there in the Western Caribbean FutureMet?


The question also goes to anybody else as well.
Quoting hurricane556:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?


yea
582. JRRP
Quoting hurricane556:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?

yes
I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.


Personally, I think it's those pesky cut off lows. Throws everyone off. Once those make way, I firmly believe it will come in earnest!
In a normal season one has to keep an eye for draped fronts in the gulf/caribbean but given the fact that el nino is present tends to really keep caribbean/gulf development at very low minimum. I'd say this season could be over but one cant rule out something weak in the gulf along a stalled frontal boundary. Other then that this winter should be interesting for the southeast with potential severe weather outbreaks.

adrian

Quoting Dakster:


As long as we don't end up in a La Chinga, I am ok with that...
LA CHINGA! Not THE LA CHINGA!!!
Quoting hurricane556:
was 2005 a nuetral hurricane season?


If 2005 was neutral....tell my house the Hurricane Wilma didn't happen.
If ENSO looks like it will be neutral for the 2010 cane season by next Spring, then the confidence of a busier season will rise.
588. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:
I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.


Personally, I think it's those pesky cut off lows. Throws everyone off. Once those make way, I firmly believe it will come in earnest!


You're right. Those cutoff lows and the difficulty to forecast them has made it hard on forecasters.
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Hey Dakster, did you catch the latest rankings?
Canes #9 !!!


WOHOO!!! We're finally ranked in the top ten.
Good evening all

I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.

Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.

I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..

Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.

Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.

Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.

I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..

Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.

Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.


I;m not, can't use a 'cane at the moment..

BTW, KMAN, did anything spontaneously develope or pop up at the part last night? You left in rather a hurry...
Quoting Dakster:


I;m not, can't use a 'cane at the moment..

BTW, KMAN, did anything spontaneously develope or pop up at the part last night? You left in rather a hurry...


No problems at the party. Got the last one out at 12:30 LOL
Glad to hear it Kman...
Evening All,


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Dead quiet at the peak of the season seems like we are almost done with 2009 season, mother nature is giving us a break this year.

Thanks GOD!

A lot of time to watch Football. LoL
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.

Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.

I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..

Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.

Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.



LOL I posted it earlier. 2009 is anomaly and low seasonal activity was not contributed by El Nino alone. It coincided with an array of conditions that caused not only the Atlantic to suffer low activity but the entire globe. The fact of the matter is that El Nino coincided with a global TC anomaly which created a double negative over the Atlantic Basin. As quiet as 2006 was, it was more active now than 2009.


The global low activity has also affected the Eastern and central pacific which is suppose to be above average during El Nino years. The intra-seasonal variables like the MJO have just been having weak signals this yr.

Time to start on Dan Brown's new novel, The Lost Symbol.

Catch you all soon.
Quoting Weather456:



LOL I posted it earlier. 2009 is anomaly and low seasonal activity was not contributed by El Nino alone. It coincided with an array of conditions that caused not only the Atlantic to suffer low activity but the entire globe. The fact of the matter is that El Nino coincided with a global TC anomaly which created a double negative over the Atlantic Basin. As quiet as 2006 was, it was more active now than 2009.


The global low activity has also affected the Eastern and central pacific which is suppose to be above average during El Nino years. The intra-seasonal variables like the MJO have just been having weak signals this yr.




I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.
Quoting Bigguy675:


If 2005 was neutral....tell my house the Hurricane Wilma didn't happen.



lol
Paloma;



this is the last full week of SEP
Quoting kmanislander:



I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.


One of the benefits is stated in post 546.
Quoting kmanislander:



I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.


Kman, what storm damage your home, Paloma?
605. JRRP
Quoting Yalahaman:
LA CHINGA! Not THE LA CHINGA!!!


Watch your language - this is a family blog =)
Quoting kmanislander:



I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.


Know what you mean...had to rebuild mine after Wilma.
608. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


It can happen, thats why these late season storms are so uncertain. They can pop up anytime.


but Lenny was a freaky storm
it moved backwards =P
I hope no late season storm gets that idea lol
Quoting JLPR:


but Lenny was a freaky storm
it moved backwards =P
I hope no late season storm gets that idea lol


omAR 2008
610. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


omAR 2008


oh yeah
but that one was more towards the NE
Lenny moved more towards the east for awhile
that's nuts
Quoting JLPR:


oh yeah
but that one was more towards the NE
Lenny moved more towards the east for awhile
that's nuts


true
LBARS is leading with least error followed by the OFCL forecast of both Fred-ex & 98L today.. Second day in a row LBAR has lead in the forecast of Fred-ex. Currently LBARS takes Fred-ex nearly to SC where it recuves & follows the coastline off shore. LBAR takes 98L on it's current course wnw then sharply recurves it.
Quoting Skyepony:
LBARS is leading with least error followed by the OFCL forecast of both Fred-ex & 98L today.. Second day in a row LBAR has lead in the forecast of Fred-ex. Currently LBARS takes Fred-ex nearly to SC where it recuves & follows the coastline off shore. LBAR takes 98L on it's current course wnw then sharply recurves it.


It also led with Erika
Didn't take long for 98L to no longer be an invest. The Atlantic is shut down.
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.


It was predicted by some. But I dont think it will end with 6.
Looks like a good possibility right now. In El Nino years the Caribbean does not produce that many storms and they have had some of the most hostile conditions in the entire Atlantic.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.
if does it will be added to the years 65 77 82 86 that it has occur
Quoting IKE:
Season isn't over. There's 71 days, 4 hours and 29 minutes left. There's a 2nd peak in early October. MJO is suppose to come back by then. Probably good for 1-2 more named systems.

Saying that...this season, so far, has been a yawner.

My season prediction of 10-4-2....the 10 part, probably isn't going to happen.


Yes, the season is not over yet!!! Fred Ex & 98L have gone "POOF", but there will be a few more over the next 70+ days!!

This season is quiet, for some a disappointment! Then I remember that these Tropical systems cause all sorts of problems around the Atlantic Basin!!
Hi guys what up I feel kinda sorry about 98L by the way yesterday we got pounded with rain and lighting to not much in rain and only a little lighting today
I would agree. The Atlantic is so quiet you
could hear a pin drop in the ocean right now.

Fred and 98L have both met their demises.

However--don't call me a wishcaster--but we should keep tabs on the basin until Oct. 30 in case a storm gets the idea of threatening the US, whether it be a tropical storm or hurricane.
Quoting AllStar17:
I would agree. The Atlantic is so quiet you
could hear a pin drop in the ocean right now.

Fred and 98L have both met their demises.

However--don't call me a wishcaster--but we should keep tabs on the basin until Oct. 30 in case a storm gets the idea of threatening the US, whether it be a tropical storm or hurricane.


boy, What a wishcaster you are!! How are you Allstar?
Quoting BenRMac:


Watch your language - this is a family blog =)
Apologies!Accidental stupidity!
Alright, looking at all in front of me and how quite September has been (only 2 named so far, August was more active)

I'm thinking 8 named, 3 Hurricanes, 2 Majors for the season. +2 unnamed post season IMO to 10 named or aka 2006 numbers.
Hey Cybr...over that nasty flu?
Mother nature is patient and she only dances to her own drum. We cannot say for sure that this season is over. Look for some late season surprises from her. Especially the GOM.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hey Cybr...over that nasty flu?


Think so, going to call in tomorrow just in case though.
Quoting Grothar:


boy, What a wishcaster you are!! How are you Allstar?


Good, how about yourself?
Hurricane Lenny was the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in November, and quite unusual in that it moved west-to-east across the Caribbean. Lenny was the first hurricane to affect the Virgin Islands from the southwest since Hurricane Klaus in 1984.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ding dong the fred is dead dead dead fred

lol
Is Fred really dead this time, or is there a chance for( dare I say it ) regeneration?

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N39W TO 14N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 37W-43W.
This irreverence for Fred will not be tolerated here, thank you very much. He's currently benefiting from a trough to his immediate north, which has contributed to a lowering shear environment over the top of him. Not to mention the fact that there's a reasonable amount of moisture to sink his teeth into, AND the Gulf Stream to feed on.

Fred lives !!!




fred is a peanut.
Quoting weathers4me:
Mother nature is patient and she only dances to her own drum. We cannot say for sure that this season is over. Look for some late season surprises from her. Especially the GOM.
What book of wishes are you reading from?

Will shear rip this one apart too?

At this point, I want something to make it into the Caribbean. They need the rain.
So shoot me.
644. JLPR
Quoting vince1966:
What book of wishes are you reading from?


reality
we dont know what could happen int eh future
Fred's still out there.
We'll be talking about Fred for another week or so. Steering currents are weak. A loose swirl could sit, stall, meander, or loop.
Viva Fred!
646. JLPR
Quoting Chicklit:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N39W TO 14N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 37W-43W.


that wave was actually part of 98L, it has shear to contend with
647. JLPR
weak LLC still with Ex-Fred

im impressed there is still something left =O
649. JRRP
Quoting JLPR:


that wave was actually part of 98L, it has shear to contend with

figures...
wilma showed up in october.
am sure there is a long record of sept. hurricanes.
while cape verde season may be ending, i recall early in the season someone saying this could be the year of the 'home grown' canes.
i'm with the contingent who keeps an eye out and doesn't forget that we have a responsibility to our neighbors and friends to let them know if something is coming their way.
by the way, kudos to the mayor of charleston for his early warning on hugo (unlike the mayor of galveston who goes down in infamy as far as i'm concerned...).
best regards,
chicklit.
651. LBAR
Quoting Skyepony:
LBARS is leading with least error followed by the OFCL forecast of both Fred-ex & 98L today.. Second day in a row LBAR has lead in the forecast of Fred-ex. Currently LBARS takes Fred-ex nearly to SC where it recuves & follows the coastline off shore. LBAR takes 98L on it's current course wnw then sharply recurves it.


We legacy models get no respect. :-D
Quoting JLPR:
weak LLC still with Ex-Fred

im impressed there is still something left =O


Watch him stall before he makes landfall, and grow into this monster that nobody suspected, feeding off the Gulf Stream beneath him, like some kind of vampire.

I really don't trust this one to go to the grave quietly.

fred ce n'est pas rien.
ROFL X Fred might be trying a comeback. This is the most convection it has had near the center. He is just like Freddy Krueger:)
C'est interessante.

Quoting markymark1973:
ROFL X Fred might be trying a comeback. This is the most convection it has had near the center. He is just like Freddy Krueger:)


Il n'en est rien.
Vous etes fou.
Bonne nuit!
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Watch him stall before he makes landfall, and grow into this monster that nobody suspected, feeding off the Gulf Stream beneath him, like some kind of vampire.

I really don't trust this one to just go to the grave quietly.



doomcasting much??
I thought el nino gave colder than average temps for the SE.
Convection slowly increasing with X Fred. Link
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?
Quoting 850Realtor:
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?



between Georgia and South Carolina whats left of it mostly just a rain event
Quoting 850Realtor:
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?

Most likely SC/NC since it reformed farther north.
I like to lurk because I have no idea what I'm looking at or talking about when it comes to weather. Is anyone concerned about the blob in the GOM or is it just a thundershower?
Zombie Fred :) Convection will probably die off soon and pulse back later tomorrow lol
Quoting 850Realtor:
Which direction is ex Fred going now...towards east coast or still Florida/GOM?


If you look at the [GOES=12] lower cloud product, Fred appears to be moving due west, and the lower level steering models would agree.

The current precip. animation also suggests a future westerly path.



Giants just beat Dallas by 2, with 4 seconds left Tynes kicked a 29 yard field goal. Unbelievable. Dallas called a time-out on the last 1 second and the Giants had to re-kick and did it. Just had to post this one. What a game.
Just so I stay on topic, it was really hot in Dallas!!!!
Link


Not much left to it
Quoting iceman55:
Grothar .yeah good game.


Good, did you see Eli in the last minute. He moved that field. Oh, it was very hot in Dallas. Make sure I don't get reported.
Going into eclipse now. X Fred will probably be a naked swirl by morning. Then again he might bring us a surprise :)
Going to bed...what's that in GOM? Anything to be concerned about?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Watch him stall before he makes landfall, and grow into this monster that nobody suspected, feeding off the Gulf Stream beneath him, like some kind of vampire.

I really don't trust this one to go to the grave quietly.



Not with you on the nobody, as we all have seen the favorable conditions he may step into if still alive.

Surprised by how 98L just blew to smithereens. Still has more rotation on it in TPW than Fred, though
Sadly the economy here in Pensacola is so bad that a storm may actually be a boom for the economy.... That is screwed up I know, but it is the worst here in over 20 years....Businesses closing daily, everything for rent or sale. No jobs, everyone is leaving like rats on a sinking ship... SAD
Quoting Grothar:


Good, did you see Eli in the last minute. He moved that field. Oh, it was very hot in Dallas. Make sure I don't get reported.


101K+ people in there. Is it the biggest NFL stadium?
Quoting Grothar:


Good, did you see Eli in the last minute. He moved that field. Oh, it was very hot in Dallas. Make sure I don't get reported.


shew yeah, pretty humid too. must be a lot of TROPICAL moisture in the air. but yes, the Red Socks won today too. it was actually a nice sunny day there. little TROPICAL moisture there.
Quoting intunewindchime:
Sadly the economy here in Pensacola is so bad that a storm may actually be a boom for the economy.... That is screwed up I know, but it is the worst here in over 20 years....Businesses closing daily, everything for rent or sale. No jobs, everyone is leaving like rats on a sinking ship... SAD


Haven't gotten a job since January here in Puerto Rico.
Quoting iceman55:




The Farmers' Almanac is out and is going for a cold winter for much of the country



that is for winter 2010 not for 2009
Quoting serialteg:


101K+ people in there. Is it the biggest NFL stadium?


for now, but there were 105K tonight. I think they said it broke an attendance records.

The electronics TV's etc. cost as much as their first stadium totally.
Quoting serialteg:


101K+ people in there. Is it the biggest NFL stadium?


oh by far, tonight was the biggest live audience for a regular season NFL game in history. Including international games. The second biggest was in Mexico (which borders the GOM, and is a breeding ground for some TROPICAL cyclones)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009


THE TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE ONSHORE DURING
WEDNESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. UNLESS THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWER IN ITS DISSIPATION...WINDS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KT AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 4 FT.
Quoting Tazmanian:



that is for winter 2010 not for 2009


it said January through March 2010, which is this winter
Serialteg, we feel for you. All we really have going for us is the navy base and tourism. The insurance issues from Ivan and Katrina helped doubly kill the housing market, and to top it off our county is the poorest of all of FL state. The few big corps we had left. I hear St Louis is booming. Might head there. Hope you find something soon.
Quoting Grothar:


for now, but there were 105K tonight. I think they said it broke an attendance records.

The electronics TV's etc. cost as much as their first stadium totally.


You know what they say, the dollar weighs less every year ...
Quoting 850Realtor:
Going to bed...what's that in GOM? Anything to be concerned about?


you shouldnt have to worry about it, high shear and no tropical development expected
Quoting serialteg:


Haven't gotten a job since January here in Puerto Rico.


I feel for you! He's right about Pensacola though, no jobs. I've never seen anything like this in my 40+ years. Not wishing for a storm but it would be nice to find a job other than delivering pizzas. The sunsets here are still incredible though :)
Quoting tornadodude:


oh by far, tonight was the biggest live audience for a regular season NFL game in history. Including international games. The second biggest was in Mexico (which borders the GOM, and is a breeding ground for some TROPICAL cyclones)


Boy, you are good at covering yourself. By the way, they kept mentioning the extreme heat at the stadium due to the weather, especially in the last 4 minutes. Did you see that weather in the Stadium, you know, the last 4 minutes. I am a season ticket holder for the Giants. But when I go to NY it rains a lot. We had to buy the license for the seats this year because they are building a new Giants Stadium. I hope the weather stays good for the games when I am there.
Quoting intunewindchime:
Serialteg, we feel for you. All we really have going for us is the navy base and tourism. The insurance issues from Ivan and Katrina helped doubly kill the housing market, and to top it off our county is the poorest of all of FL state. The few big corps we had left. I hear St Louis is booming. Might head there. Hope you find something soon.


Thank you, eventually one finds a way, right now I'm in unemployment and at least that's something, have free state medical insurance (only for poor people) and am studying for computer engineering soon (doing the prerequisites for entering the faculty, already have a B.A. in Communications that isn't worth ---- job-wise).
700. JRRP
06 nov
Druseljic, I am a she...

Pizza delivery is booming out by Perdido key
. It's one of the few growth industries.
Sad though, very sad.
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, you are good at covering yourself. By the way, they kept mentioning the extreme heat at the stadium due to the weather, especially in the last 4 minutes. Did you see that weather in the Stadium, you know, the last 4 minutes. I am a season ticket holder for the Giants. But when I go to NY it rains a lot. We had to buy the license for the seats this year because they are building a new Giants Stadium. I hope the weather stays good for the games when I am there.


Boy is that a treat!
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, you are good at covering yourself. By the way, they kept mentioning the extreme heat at the stadium due to the weather, especially in the last 4 minutes. Did you see that weather in the Stadium, you know, the last 4 minutes. I am a season ticket holder for the Giants. But when I go to NY it rains a lot. We had to buy the license for the seats this year because they are building a new Giants Stadium. I hope the weather stays good for the games when I am there.


well I am certainly glad for you, and hope you enjoy your season watching the Giants, but bring your umbrella! it might rain, some TROPICAL moisture might get picked up by a front and bring some rain to your games
Quoting iceman55:
hey matt their man lolol


hey iceman lol
Quoting druseljic:


I feel for you! He's right about Pensacola though, no jobs. I've never seen anything like this in my 40+ years. Not wishing for a storm but it would be nice to find a job other than delivering pizzas. The sunsets here are still incredible though :)


That's actually a job I liked... hard work, closing the store, doing all the dishes, cleaning out, (But I thought I was just going to drive for pizzas!) but I made minimum wage + tips, with the car's gas included in the wages which was neat. Unfortunately haven't found something in that 'sector' yet lol

There's a garage store cashier job I might just pounce on... and Old Navy again looking for hires. I'm tired of spending 30 + minutes of my life filling blanks and never getting called for an interview (years).
Quoting JRRP:
06 nov



link
Goodnight everyone!
708. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:



link

Link
Quoting intunewindchime:
Goodnight everyone!


have a good one!
Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude


whats up man?
Quoting intunewindchime:
Druseljic, I am a she...


My apologies :-)
Quoting iceman55:
chilling and eat arby's mmmm


sounds good to me
Quoting JRRP:

Link



i mean the link too the main site that mode run was on
718. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:



i mean the link too the main site that mode run was on

ahh.. jejeje i just only have the images... :P
We go on vacation a week and we come back and people are still talking about Fred? And it's been what--8 days? This is crazier than Karen ;)
Quoting serialteg:


Boy is that a treat!


Hey serialteg, when I thought things were going the worst for me and my family, things just turned around for the better. What state are you in? Because things are bad all over. Try not to make a move unless it is something truly concrete. Uprooting is not always the wisest move. We have an old Norwegian saying my family always said, "If you think today is bad, wait until tomorrow!" It may sound like a downer, but we always laugh. There will always be someone who will help you at the last moment. I posted a quote the other night. I hope it will help!

Remember, if you ever need a helping hand, it's at the end of your arm, as you get older, remember you have another hand: The first is to help yourself, the second is to help others.
Quoting iceman55:
chilling and eat arby's mmmm


with cheese melting?
Quoting iceman55:

Shear looks to weaken quite a bit within 36hrs and there is going to be some decent divergence in place as well. Looks like there is still a small window of hope for X Fred. It is still possible that it could form into a TD or minimal TS before making landfall.
I think some ice cold water melon and a glass of orange juice sound amazing right now. :D
Quoting JRRP:
06 nov


For when is that forcasted?
Quoting iceman55:
roast beef sandwiches


What good is an Arby's roast beef with cheese pouring out of the sides drippin on your shirt while you wash it down with a nice chocolate shake and curly fries. Oh, and as long as the weather stays nice and not storms blow by.
Let's name everything 98L.....that makes things less confusing LOL.
Quoting Grothar:


What good is an Arby's roast beef with cheese pouring out of the sides drippin on your shirt while you wash it down with a nice chocolate shake and curly fries. Oh, and as long as the weather stays nice and not storms blow by.


keeping things weather related, good call, but I have an odd craving for orange juice. I could certainly use some of that good 'ole Florida orange juice, should be plenty since there havent been any tropical systems to blow the oranges down
Fred making it back to TD status would be amazing considering all the obstacles he has been through. Fred had one vigorous COC. Imagine what he could of been if conditions had been favorable over the last 5 days or so.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


For when is that forcasted?

read above ws
Quoting tornadodude:


keeping things weather related, good call, but I have an odd craving for orange juice. I could certainly use some of that good 'ole Florida orange juice, should be plenty since there havent been any tropical systems to blow the oranges down


Most oranges only bloom during the winter. They are just getting little green bumps. Same for most grapefruits. The avocado and mangos grow in the summer. See we have seasons, too! They made us cut down our two orange trees because of the Mediteranean fruit fly. I told them I was Norwegian, but it didn't make a difference. Most of Dade County and Broward county had to cut down all private trees. I miss them. I do have a small mango tree left and a lot of bananas. The call the variety manzanas which actually means apple in Spanish. Very good though. See my blog
738. JRRP
728
friday
i think........


out!
Quoting Grothar:


Most oranges only bloom during the winter. They are just getting little green bumps. Same for most grapefruits. The avocado and mangos grow in the summer. See we have seasons, too! They made us cut down our two orange trees because of the Mediteranean fruit fly. I told them I was Norwegian, but it didn't make a difference. Most of Dade County and Broward county had to cut down all private trees. I miss them. I do have a small mango tree left and a lot of bananas. The call the variety manzanas which actually means apple in Spanish. Very good though. See my blog


oh wow, learn new things every day! I love fruit juices, they are so good, but yeah I didnt know when the growing season was. you should hook me up with some pure Florida orange juice :P
anybody have an image of Africa. Looks like another big wave over central Africa, but I can only see half of it. Come on ice, finish the sandwhich and post your pictures.
Quoting iceman55:



show


that is interesting, I hope we have a lot of snow here
Quoting tornadodude:


oh wow, learn new things every day! I love fruit juices, they are so good, but yeah I didnt know when the growing season was. you should hook me up with some pure Florida orange juice :P


All kidding aside. When you get a craving for orange juice, your sugar level or potassium level may be low. It can happen when you study alot.
I know the season isn't over yet...but this season does seem to be ending. Am I wrong?

Quoting Grothar:


All kidding aside. When you get a craving for orange juice, your sugar level or potassium level may be low. It can happen when you study alot.


hmm, weird, I could use some orange juice and some sleep, but I just finished writing an essay and I will settle for water
Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude . yeah me to.


I love snow
I know this season isn't over yet....but it does seem to be ending. Am I wrong?
Quoting tornadodude:


hmm, weird, I could use some orange juice and some sleep, but I just finished writing an essay and I will settle for water


What was the subject? If was on deserts perhaps you have a subsconscious desire to quench your thirst. And the same to you :P
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
We go on vacation a week and we come back and people are still talking about Fred? And it's been what--8 days? This is crazier than Karen ;)

Viva Fred!!
It's been 14 days!
It could be another 14.
Quoting iceman55:
roast beef sandwiches

With chocolate shake and potato cake I hope.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I know this season isn't over yet....but it does seem to be ending. Am I wrong?


In my opinion it never really fully got going, but it does seem to be slowing down. however, the season is not over until november so, time will tell
Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude .Make A Snowman IN COLD


well, if we get enough snow this winter, i will make one and post a picture of it
Quoting iceman55:
.tornadodude .yeah .call Snowman mrs fred lol


Mrs. Fred the snow-women haha alright
well im going to bed, i have an 830 class to go to, so goodnight guys
Water vapor imagery of Fred suggests an improving environment overhead. Almost all of the deep convection to his west has subsided or moved north of his latitude. This is what has been contributing to a good deal of the shear.

However, judging from his size, I think we should reclassify Fred as a tornado instead, with yet another amazing curtain call.




Quoting tornadodude:
well im going to bed, i have an 830 class to go to, so goodnight guys


Take care Dude!
Let's face it! It's been a "lite" year. I'm glad y'all got a bit of a break.
Nite all...thanks to those who replied... :)
766. JLPR
The only area that looks remotely interesting is waaay south of the Cape Verde islands at 5 -6N


and that's probably the ITCZ lol
well nothing to watch today
im off to bed :)
767. JLPR
One last interesting thing
both the GFS

and the CMC

both develop a low south of the CV islands
maybe we could get another Sept Storm out of it
GMZ089-210930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE N GULF
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT N TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT WILL
DRIFT W AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.



Hmmmm? May be nothing but the blob at 85 west is the top of the trough. It was spinning. Don't know about at what level the spin was. But it spun up out of absolutely nothing. Never seen that before. Maybe something to watch anyway. If it's still there after black out. Lol.:)
Quoting homelesswanderer:
GMZ089-210930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE N GULF
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT N TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT WILL
DRIFT W AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.



Hmmmm? May be nothing but the blob at 85 west is the top of the trough. It was spinning. Don't know about at what level the spin was. But it spun up out of absolutely nothing. Never seen that before. Maybe something to watch anyway. If it's still there after black out. Lol.:)


Now you see it, now you don..... 't

But one armed Fred is still alive and kicking up waves ....



Fred is still hanging on. Convection is spreading.Link
09/21/2009 12:55AM 13,932 invest_DEACTIVATE_al072009.ren

09/21/2009 12:39AM 2,342 invest_DEACTIVATE_al982009.ren
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Water vapor imagery of Fred suggests an improving environment overhead. Almost all of the deep convection to his west has subsided or moved north of his latitude. This is what has been contributing to a good deal of the shear.

However, judging from his size, I think we should reclassify Fred as a tornado instead, with yet another amazing curtain call.






Ok, Ok, I didn't mean to call you small. I'm apologizing as I speak. You're big Fred, you're bigger than a tornado. ;)

Although it's tilted to the southeast, it appears as if the dry air to the immediate west is almost gobbled up, and movement continues to the WNW. If it strengthens enough, it could stall out, but they're betting it won't, which seems reasonable given the current shear.




Awe, my blob did a Houdini on me. Lol. Watch out he's starting to fire off another round of storms. I mean Don't blink! Lol. Not dead Fred is looking pretty good.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NE TO SW RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE RETRACTS NE ALLOWING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AROUND
SUNSET TUE AND JUST OFFSHORE EARLY WED. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
IMMEDIATELY OVER THE NW WATERS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS...PERHAPS POKING JUST OFFSHORE THE
MS DELTA BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THU INTO FRI.
MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH NLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECT ABOUT 10 KT. IN THE MEANTIME THE REMNANT
TROUGH OF TC FRED WILL SPLIT WITH THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF TROUGH
REACHING THE SE FL COAST AND STRAITS OF FL AROUND SUNSET TUE...
AND MOVING W OVER THE SE GULF WATERS WED...BECOMING A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK
. ALTHOUGH SEEMS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE FORMALLY
ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS LIFTED OUT TO N OVER THE ATLC THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL IS ALREADY BACKED FROM E TO NE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH NEARLY 400 NM TO THE E. AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...HIGH PRES FROM THE N WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL
REMNANTS...AND COMBINED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE NE FLOW TO 15
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT W OF THE
TROUGH ALONG 22N TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
THROUGHOUT ON FRI.

More from the discussion...

THE REMNANT LOW OF TC FRED IS NEAR 30N72W AND HAS WEAKENED TO
1017 MB. THE MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIED THIS LOW HAS ADVECTED NE
WITH THE LOW AND IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
CONVECTION ENHANCED NEAR 31N78W. EXPECT THIS LOW TO FILL AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
HISPANIOLA TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NW TO ALONG 77W-78W LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN
SEGMENT CONTINUING NW TO THE GA/SC COAST WED. THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL TUE
TO ALONG THE SE FL COAST AT SUNSET TUE.
Good Morning Everyone !
776. IKE
Accuweather....

"Last Update: 21-SEP-2009 05:39am EDT

Moisture associated with the remains of Hurricane Fred continues to generate some showers approximately 250 miles east-southeast of Hatteras, N.C. This feature will continue to encounter southeasterly wind shear as it travels west, so no tropical development is expected. However, the feature will spread a few showers and thunderstorms into the coastal Carolinas tonight, with some wet weather reaching the Piedmont of the state on Tuesday. The pressure gradient between this wave and high pressure off the Northeast coast will also create a broad onshore flow into the Carolinas, which combined with astronomically high tides and an east-southeasterly swell will create rough surf and a heightened risk for rip currents.

Elsewhere, another tropical wave is located about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. This feature is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This feature is expected to take a more northwesterly path over the next two or three days. An analysis of wind shear over the Atlantic shows the storm moving into a zone of strong westerlies aloft, so no development is expected from this system.

A tropical wave that emerged off the African coast over the weekend has dissipated due to cool waters and hostile wind shear. Another weak wave is analyzed across Cuba and the southern Bahamas, with no other features of note in the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr".........


A yawner in the Atlantic
Current Joe Bastardi. Make sure you follow the link to the TIMESONLINE. Its near the bottom of the column.


MONDAY 1 AM
I DONT RECCALL SEEING THIS EVER ON THIS DATE.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

Not one area under investigation in the northern hemisphere on Sept 21 amazing.

ciao for now ******


SUNDAY 10PM

WEST COAST HEAT, TEXAS FLOODS.... LOOK OUT, THE GLOBAL WARMING BLAMERS COULD BE OUT IN FORCE THIS WEEK.

If you are going to Texas two step you will need your waders as alot of water will be coming down in the area hit hard by drought in the summer. But this is part and parcel of a reversal that started in the mid summer and was subtle at first, but has picked up steam as the summer faded into fall. Texas is a whole nother country as the ad says, and when it comes to whether, the average there is anything but normal. Its a product of wild swings and so it is, and so it will always be. But after watching global warming get the blame for floods in Iowa last year and for every wildfire that gets started in California, this could be a big field day of the heat- blamers since another shot of hot is coming to the west coast and flooding will be hitting Texas again.

Of course the counter weight to all this is perhaps the quietest Sep 21 of modern times globally in the tropics. The entire northern hemisphere may be void of any named systems. Truly astounding yet now so, since the overall cooling that is taking place in an up down fashion is probably a result of larger scale events going on. I suspect the mean humidity over the tropics have dropped and since the temps over the tropics have not warmed as per the global warming theory, it can mean only one thing... when convection gets into the crucial levels for warming... the increase in moisture in a drier than normal field means lower wet bulbs. Bingo front row, the worldwide cap on the tropics and with it, the destruction of the global warming theory on increased tropical activity. It really is interesting to watch how these sacred cows get slayed, for within 3 years of the release of Al Gores movie touting global warming as a reason for increased hurricane activity ( nonsense as the entire globe has always been cyclical as can readily be seen in Ryan Maues charts) we are at record low levels and apparently going lower. I cant recall it being this quiet at this time of the year.

But just a warning... alot of weather is on the table this week, Texas rains, West coast heat... and the blame game could start anew.

And of course one has to wonder if what we are seeing in England will happen here as people go off the deep end to counter what they believe is going on. What is going on, well read this little ditty:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6832964.ece

Meanwhile, the conference in Copenhagen is approaching. The CFS looks colder each day with the euro winter... Another sacred cow may be moooooving to the slaughter.

ciao for now ***
Morn'n Ike.
Morn'n Johnny.
780. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morn'n Ike.


Good morning.
Hey Doug! :)
Quoting IKE:
A yawner in the Atlantic


This may not be 0,0,0 year...but the spirit of it lives on! :)
any1 else see the Cuban/Panama Area Firing Up maybe something to watch?
only thing you get from the cmc is teased
Good Morning PensacolaDoug!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Current Joe Bastardi. Make sure you follow the link to the TIMESONLINE. Its near the bottom of the column.

---

And of course one has to wonder if what we are seeing in England will happen here as people go off the deep end to counter what they believe is going on. What is going on, well read this little ditty:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6832964.ece

Meanwhile, the conference in Copenhagen is approaching. The CFS looks colder each day with the euro winter... Another sacred cow may be moooooving to the slaughter.

ciao for now ***


Looking forward to leaving England already.
so fred is still a entity? east of the georgia florida border mdr regions interesting looks like the area with the most voticity at 15n just does not have many clouds are it watching the boc too still no sign of anything alarming going on near that part of the world not bad for sept cant see the windshear lowering anytime soon
789. IKE
282 more of these after this one and it's over....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Mornin' fella's!

Doug, catch any fish yesterday?
thanks ike you downcaster you

lol
It appears to me that the tropical Atlantic area is done with as far as tropical cyclones which could affect the U.S. If the U.S. is affected for the remainder of this season, any tropical cyclone will have to come from the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and it will have to come before any early-season strong cold front sweeps through the entire Gulf.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hard to believe the season may end with 6 named storms.


And there were some people that thought the season would go 0-0-0, and supposedly had the data to back it up.

Still, I'm not unpacking my hurricane supplies till the end of November.
Good Morning all... No circles... I like it.

This season is just full of surprises.

A couple of deactivated invests and fair skies across most of the basin, and the world for that matter. Tropically quiet in every basin with the exception of 98E which looks pathetic.

Morning All!
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


You are a perfect example of Squidward, dull and boring.

Why dont you be like others and be more constructive. Season's over, season's dead, snoozer, etc. and every morning you are here complaining about it. Geesuz. If the season so quiet, promise me you wont come back until next June.


Good Morning Folks......The "morning crew", and Ike is included, likes it here in the am where it is more quiet, reasoned, and less trollish than in the PM.......You're the one who needs to take the break.
:P no aoi's
xfred still looks interesting seems to be on a western course the past few hours
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning Folks......The "morning crew", and Ike is included, likes it here in the am where it is more quiet, reasoned, and less trollish than in the PM.......You're the one who needs to take the break.


Yep.

Just because Ike and others who are similarly minded aren't calling for a Cat 4 hurricane every week, doesn't make their opinion any less valid.
Looks like the month of Sept ....peak of the season....will be one of the most quiet in many of years....great news for everyone....not quite ready to call this season over yet.....but getting close.....
Judging by history of El Nino seasons, we still have up to around a month of potential activity yet.

As said before, only 2 El Nino seasons have ever stopped in September since 1950. Those were in much more notable ENSO events than this.

Subsidence across the basin... give it a week, and MJO should come.. then we'll see. Patience...
Quoting gatagus07:
Looks like the month of Sept ....peak of the season....will be one of the most quiet in many of years....great news for everyone....not quite ready to call this season over yet.....but getting close.....


I think you would be hard pressed to find many Septembers with only a weak TS and one Hurricane, major yes but, only one. Still a little over a week to go though, don't want to jinx it.
Now Playing!!!

The Return of 0,0,0

...at a tropical location near you! :)
good day oz
Hey Keep! :)
An upward pulse should be coming soon if memory serves. In about a week or two?
My Jimena "depression" is dissipating.

I'll start editing "Experience Hurricane Jimena" soon now.
As I have mentioned before, even in an Enso year, we had two major hurricanes this season (Bill and Dennis)which were notable in terms of their size/power but were lucky that they did not directly impact a land area at their peak.....Steering currents have been favorable for us but it is not a "dull" season by any means......No landfall by two major storms has been the blessing so far this season.
good to see ya oz ya been mia for a while since gabo
The video will provide a visceral storm surge experience.

How visceral? I was so frightened that I went "you know what"

Plus...you get to experience what the "Baja 500" feels like.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good to see ya oz ya been mia for a while since gabo


Yeah...I've been hunting in the mountains of northern New Mexico. My puppy (1 year old in July) is now a fully trained German short-haired pointer. I bought her in South Dakota from champion stock...and this weekend...she proved to be a champion herself.

Good Dog! :)
Quoting ElConando:
An upward pulse should be coming soon if memory serves. In about a week or two?


Yep,in the next 14 days.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As I have mentioned before, even in an Enso year, we had two major hurricanes this season (Bill and Dennis)which were notable in terms of their size/power but were lucky that they did not directly impact a land area at their peak.....Steering currents have been favorable for us but it is not a "dull" season by any means......No landfall by two major storms has been the blessing so far this season.


You mean Fred? I don't think people want another Dennis...
Quoting ElConando:
An upward pulse should be coming soon if memory serves. In about a week or two?
oct 3 to oct 10 will be the next and possible final area of any action still expecting 1 maybe 2 east movers possible in nw or sw carb or gom sw atlantic
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