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97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:42 PM GMT on October 02, 2010

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today
Too Wet To Harvest Today
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weatherwart:


Good morning. I'm near Spring Hill. Great weather, isn't it? I have a little bit of a low cloud deck right now, but it's moving out pretty quickly.

Yes is there anything better than lower temps and nothing in the gulf or wc. Also got plenty of rain this year. been awhile for that to.everything is so green.
Quoting severstorm:

Yes is there anything better than lower temps and nothing in the gulf or wc. Also got plenty of rain this year. been awhile for that to.everything is so green.


I'm just going to enjoy it while it lasts. You know we'll get a little bump again around mid-month, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for no major storms. Keep those cold fronts coming!
Live video from E North Carolina flood area
Link
Quoting weatherwart:


I'm just going to enjoy it while it lasts. You know we'll get a little bump again around mid-month, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for no major storms. Keep those cold fronts coming!

I'm hereing ya. I even open the windows for the first time this morning. Gots to suck out all that summer stink the builds up in the house during the summer months. LOL Be good. I gots to go wife has me moving furniture around. joy joy Later
Quoting Orcasystems:
15 more minutes until the Ryder Cup starts again :)

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Thanks Orca, I finally made your map. I take back almost everything I said about you! LOL
Quoting SeALWx:

Hey, I don't claim to be an expert on foreign spelling questions. I did, however, answer well enough to get credit on a Jeopardy show!


You're right on that. It's not many Americans that know that.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
morning ike.even Bastardi admitted that his impact forecast for the conus was a bust, lol about time.wish some of the bloggers would do that.Well they will come back with the ace index being high.well maybe thats true but for the conus it was a joker.Maybe next time a lot of storms are predicted, some of the bloggers will not automatically assume that it means doom for the conus.And yes before its posted for the millionth time we know it was a rough season for Mexico and the Islands.Remember we are talking about the conus.Have a blessed Lords day.


You forgot Canada and Bermuda as well.
Fall even made it to South Florida. It was actually not hot out this morning. I wouldn't call it cool just yet, but comfortable.
Quoting islander101010:
pricans i love their island surprised both areas of concern have only a 10 percent hopefully the first area stays out of the carib.


Thank you man we appreciate that and if you want to take a look go to Link
While the GFS has preformed Really well this year I just don't trust it on 97.
Not sure the ULL will keep the development of the souther part in check with the shear. I'm going with the ECMWF side of modeling and thinking ther is a stronger possibility of TS conditions in the virgins PR tonight than 10% so moving the boat to Culebra hopefuly for a party not two days in the mangroves
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Orca, I finally made your map. I take back almost everything I said about you! LOL


Hmm I warned you about being nice... nice people worry me.

I am thoroughly enjoying watching the Ryder Cup this morning :)
Met Service of Jamaica
October 03, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Broad Trough covers the central and western Caribbean.

Comment
The Trough continues to produce disorganised showers and thunderstorm activity, especially across western Jamaica and is expected to linger across the island. The possibility of Tropical Cyclone development still exists with this system, albeit a relatively low chance.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston…30 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay…30 degrees Celsius.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across western parishes, cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Tonight…Cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon…Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon.
Tue… Cloudy day. Periods of showers and thunderstorms over most of the island especially in the afternoon.
Wed… Widespread showers and thunderstorms over the island.

Regionally…The ITCZ moves further away but draws closer to the island later in the week. Areas of Low Pressure form over the Caribbean as the likelihood of Tropical Cyclones to develop from the Tropical Waves east of the Lesser Antilles remains moderate. Systems are progressively
moving east and should be within the Caribbean by midweek.

rar
Quoting sailingallover:
While the GFS has preformed Really well this year I just don't trust it on 97.
Not sure the ULL will keep the development of the souther part in check with the shear. I'm going with the ECMWF side of modeling and thinking ther is a stronger possibility of TS conditions in the virgins PR tonight than 10% so moving the boat to Culebra hopefuly for a party not two days in the mangroves
Good morning..Did you ever read the link I posted for you?....Link
Good Morning!
Quoting kimoskee:
Met Service of Jamaica
October 03, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Broad Trough covers the central and western Caribbean.

Comment
The Trough continues to produce disorganised showers and thunderstorm activity, especially across western Jamaica and is expected to linger across the island. The possibility of Tropical Cyclone development still exists with this system, albeit a relatively low chance.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston…30 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay…30 degrees Celsius.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across western parishes, cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Tonight…Cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon…Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon.
Tue… Cloudy day. Periods of showers and thunderstorms over most of the island especially in the afternoon.
Wed… Widespread showers and thunderstorms over the island.

Regionally…The ITCZ moves further away but draws closer to the island later in the week. Areas of Low Pressure form over the Caribbean as the likelihood of Tropical Cyclones to develop from the Tropical Waves east of the Lesser Antilles remains moderate. Systems are progressively
moving east and should be within the Caribbean by midweek.


rar


Think he might have meant WEST? If they are moving East, how can they go into the Caribbean?
Perhaps a new invest soon on the 10N 40-45W.....

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, thanks. Looked it up in Dictionary online and it said no results.

You didn't find any results because, at least in Spanish, it's spelled "Boricuas".
Quoting Portlight:
Live video from E North Carolina flood area
Link


With German music. 99 Luftballons. Nena! Lol ...
Edit: English version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFNDjOPUAec&feature=fvst
Quoting Grothar:


Think he might have meant WEST? If they are moving East, how can they go into the Caribbean?


He koss his head compass, morning.
Quoting germemiguel:
Perhaps a new invest soon on the 10N 40-45W.....


There should be. Haven't seen ASCAT though.
Getting a WSw wind in the Virgin passage. Either the area to the south is developing or strong convergence to the east of me
Someone's messing around with the intensities on 2010 hurricane season wiki page, since Earl & Igor are Cat 5s according to it.
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning..Did you ever read the link I posted for you?....Link

missed that and the link takes me too the blog on the iPhone so hard to sort through what was it? Thanks in advance
Quoting barbamz:


With German music. 99 Luftballons. Nena! Lol ...


Ihr Akzent! Ach.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Someone's messing around with the intensities on 2010 hurricane season wiki page, since Earl & Igor are Cat 5s according to it.
Thats Major problem with the net. Anybody can post anything ANC if enough people see it be becomes history
Quoting sailingallover:

missed that and the link takes me too the blog on the iPhone so hard to sort through what was it? Thanks in advance
It is a link about The Great Hurricane of 1780. A cat-5 that struck Barbados and the Lesser Antilles With winds estimated at over 200 mph. It killed over 27,000 people.
Quoting Grothar:


Ihr Akzent! Ach.

Nevermind ... BTW Today it's the 20th anniversary of German Reunification. And very nice warm and sunny weather, to boot!
Quoting Eugeniopr:


He koss his head compass, morning.


Must have been standing near a magnet, eh? Wouldn't ever want to ask this guy for directions.
A nice cool fall morning in Upstate, only 47 right now. The weekend has been a welcome turnaround from the downpours we had earlier this week.
Still waiting for the real weather from 97L here at 18N 63W! Lol
Good Morning........Weather beautiful along the Gulf and Florida this morning and 62 in Tallahassee at the moment. As to 97L, convection has increased since Friday but wind sheer really taking a toll and preventing any significant development in the short term.....I would not hold my breath on this one developing into a TD down the road in several days. Still reeling over the end of the TX-LSU game yesterday........One for the Ages....... :)
Quoting barbamz:

Nevermind ... BTW Today it's the 20th anniversary of German Reunification. And very nice warm and sunny weather, to boot!


Yes, we were discussing it yesterday. Emotional time on both sides, especially for the older generation.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, thanks. Looked it up in Dictionary online and it said no results.
The Taino indians called their island Boriken(land of the good men)eventually the native of this island after the Spanish invassion were called also Borinqueños, generally known as Boricuas. Most of our latinamerican brothers call us Boricuas instead of Puertoricans.
Quoting hydrus:
It is a link about The Great Hurricane of 1780. A cat-5 that struck Barbados and the Lesser Antilles With winds estimated at over 200 mph. It killed over 27,000 people.


And no hydrus, don't ask me what it was really like, I wasnt' there.
its look like the center its liitle more to the south its moving west.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, we were discussing it yesterday. Emotional time on both sides, especially for the older generation.

But not on the blog, I guess ... I myself remember those days very well. I was crying while watching TV.
I've got some free days and will leave for Crete soon. Looking forward to it very much.
Quoting Grothar:


Think he might have meant WEST? If they are moving East, how can they go into the Caribbean?


LOL. Let me call them and see what they meant. Back in two
Quoting Grothar:


Ihr Akzent! Ach.
Wat up G....
Quoting Grothar:


Ihr Akzent! Ach.
Bless you! I'm just glad the blog is so quiet right now, since it means no heavy-duty threats. Ideal weather here on the TX Gulf Coast--66 degrees, sunny, light breeze. It won't stay like that forever, but it's great for now.
Not so cool here in Naples this morning: 79 already on the way to the upper 80s/low 90s. The northern GOM may be feeling fall, but here at the southern tip of Florida? Not so much. It's not mid-July, to be sure...but it's much closer to mid-July than it is to, say, mid-January.

In the words of the old-timers: hurricane weather...
Quoting kimoskee:


LOL. Let me call them and see what they meant. Back in two


They're not answering. I guess they must have gone to church. :-D I will keep trying.

Back later.
Quoting barbamz:

But not on the blog, I guess ... I myself remember those days very well. I was crying while watching TV.
I've got some free days and will leave for Crete soon. Looking forward to it very much.


No, not on the blog, but with some family and friends. Only Uncle left, 94 from Baizenburg.
Quoting Grothar:


And no hydrus, don't ask me what it was really like, I wasnt' there.
You should not be bashful about your life experiences Gro. Whether they were in this century or centuries gone by..Share the knowledge and the wisdom of ancient times with today,s generation.
Quoting hydrus:
Wat up G....


Nothing hydrus, believe me, nothing!
Quoting lhwhelk:
Bless you! I'm just glad the blog is so quiet right now, since it means no heavy-duty threats. Ideal weather here on the TX Gulf Coast--66 degrees, sunny, light breeze. It won't stay like that forever, but it's great for now.


What's the blessing for? I didn't sneeze. LOL
Quoting hydrus:
You should not be bashful about your life experiences Gro. Whether they were in this century or centuries gone by..Share the knowledge and the wisdom of ancient times with today,s generation.


Aw, what's the sense, hydrus, they wouldn't understand. Had the same problem with Socrates; thick-headed guy with a mind of his own. Wouldn't listen to me and look how he ended up.
97L is becoming better organized. And that region is condusive for development now.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm I warned you about being nice... nice people worry me.

I am thoroughly enjoying watching the Ryder Cup this morning :)


Morning Groth and Orca. :))

"Ryder Cup"- is that like Nascar with rental trucks?
Quoting hydrus:
You should not be bashful about your life experiences Gro. Whether they were in this century or centuries gone by..Share the knowledge and the wisdom of ancient times with today,s generation.


Lol ... Grothar for sure is an old druid ...
Druids recognized as religion for first time in UK
By SYLVIA HUI (AP) – 19 hours ago
Quoting CaribBoy:
Still waiting for the real weather from 97L here at 18N 63W! Lol

yeah it strange Sat last night looked like we would get hammered but then nothing! Fne by me though. Squalls at night stink n a boat.
Quoting swampliliy:


Morning Groth and Orca. :))

"Ryder Cup"- is that like Nascar with rental trucks?


Yo, Swampman! Personally, I think this year's tournament is "all wet".
Quoting swampliliy:


Morning Groth and Orca. :))

"Ryder Cup"- is that like Nascar with rental trucks?


Nope... its a real sport.
Quoting hydrus:
It is a link about The Great Hurricane of 1780. A cat-5 that struck Barbados and the Lesser Antilles With winds estimated at over 200 mph. It killed over 27,000 people.
Ill have to take alook at that... In January!
Quoting Grothar:


Aw, what's the sense, hydrus, they wouldn't understand. Had the same problem with Socrates; thick-headed guy with a mind of his own. Wouldn't listen to me and look how he ended up.
Philosophers have always been eccentric Gro. You should know that. Especially after shooting the breeze with the likes of Ovid and Descartes. Is your memory slipping? Sometimes taking one extra Geritol can remedy such maladies.
Quoting hydrus:
97L is becoming better organized. And that region is condusive for development now.


hydrus, I've been posting this since last night. Don't you ever go back and look? LOL

Quoting sailingallover:
Ill have to take alook at that... In January!
LOL ! No, It was in existence from Oct-9 to Oct-20..It is an exceptional read. The shear power of the storm was almost unimaginable.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope... its a real sport.



Oh....like this? Link
Quoting Grothar:


hydrus, I've been posting this since last night. Don't you ever go back and look? LOL

I love to go back and read everything. To put it simply ..I am SWAMPED! 97L looks like it is growing a bit...
Quoting barbamz:


Lol ... Grothar for sure is an old druid ...
Druids recognized as religion for first time in UK
By SYLVIA HUI (AP) – 19 hours ago


Didn't hear about that! Funny. But Stonehenge was built long before the Druids were even around. I know, I remember when it was built. it was supposed to be ein Nebengebaüde! LOL
Quoting swampliliy:



Oh....like this? Link


ROFLMAO, yup thats the one
We do have some shear as evidenced by high cirrus
we also have some Large areas of convection with some impressive vertical developmen
what's cool is I can see more shear to the north less to the south as well as the squall coming up behind met
Score 6-6
Quoting swampliliy:



Oh....like this? Link


Talk about humiliation
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Talk about humiliation


true, but almost every golfer has done it at least once....

Some of us... have even done it in a tournament :(
Quoting Grothar:


Didn't hear about that! Funny. But Stonehenge was built long before the Druids were even around. I know, I remember when it was built. it was supposed to be ein Nebengebaüde! LOL

What you say ...
360° view of stonehenge (flash player required): http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/programmes/stonehenge/flash/panorama.swf
Quoting kimoskee:


They're not answering. I guess they must have gone to church. :-D I will keep trying.

Back later.

I got throught to them, you have to call the airport station instead of the office. They said they would check it out as soon as posssible. They also said thanks for the observation, that thanks goes to you Grothar .
Quoting Orcasystems:


true, but almost every golfer has done it at least once....

Some of us... have even done it in a tournament :(


Been there myself Orca.... I refuse to play the rest of the hole with my pants down around my ankles.
The 10% AOI around 9N/44W is holding together; there's good convection right at the center of the increasing 850mb vorticity, and some low-level cyclonic turning is becoming evident. I'm not the first one to say this today, but, yes, look for a new invest by this evening if things continue as they are...
It is still warm in the Gulf if anything manages to get in there later on...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You didn't find any results because, at least in Spanish, it's spelled "Boricuas".
I thought it was a nationality I had never heard of before and I was trying to find out where the country was. LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
The 10% AOI around 9N/44W is holding together; there's good convection right at the center of the increasing 850mb vorticity, and some low-level cyclonic turning is becoming evident. I'm not the first one to say this today, but, yes, look for a new invest by this evening if things continue as they are...


Good Catch..........Sheer is low ahead of it but I would like to see some convection build and persist for at least 24 hours....Not so sure that it will make invest status by this evening but maybe by tommorow afternoon..... :)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I got throught to them, you have to call the airport station instead of the office. They said they would check it out as soon as posssible. They also said thanks for the observation, that thanks goes to you Grothar .


Yes. I was calling the number listed on the website. Glad you got through.
Quoting barbamz:

What you say ...
360° view of stonehenge (flash player required): http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/programmes/stonehenge/flash/panorama.swf


Some beautiful views. I have never been there, but always wanted to see it. I guess now I have. Thanks.
Out for Church............Enjoy the Rest of the Weekend Folks.......WW
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I got throught to them, you have to call the airport station instead of the office. They said they would check it out as soon as posssible. They also said thanks for the observation, that thanks goes to you Grothar .


No big thing, just something I learned in first grade. East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet! They do that on the Weather Channel all the time.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Score 6-6
The other score was 31-6.
The 'new look' UF offense is pretty offensive, to say the least!

Oh, and

NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting SeALWx:
The other score was 31-6.
The 'new look' UF offense is pretty offensive, to say the least!


There is no "other"... umm unless its a Hockey Score :)
Quoting Grothar:


No big thing, just something I learned in first grade. East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet! They do that on the Weather Channel all the time.

Lol, but it is a little hard to believe that it wasn't picked up in a proofread or something.