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97L Sweeps Toward Lesser Antilles; Nida Approaching Philippines

By: Bob Henson 10:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2016

As it hustles westward at 25-30 mph in the western tropical Atlantic, Invest 97L is continuing to organize. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 2:00 PM EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center placed the tropical wave about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The wave’s envelope of shower and thunderstorm activity (convection) increased notably on Saturday, with strong convection now extending across the Leeward Islands. Upper-level wind shear is strong to 97L’s north, but light to moderate (5 - 15 knots) over the core of the wave. In addition, 97L is moving over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 28°C (82°F), which is about 0.5°C above average and more than warm enough to favor development.

Despite these supportive factors, 97L is fighting some unfavorable elements. The system is more organized aloft than at the surface, with healthy upper-level divergence but no sign yet of a closed surface circulation (see Figure 2). In addition, it’s typically more difficult for waves moving as quickly as 97L to organize. As it plows westward, 97L will be moving toward a region of moderate to strong shear (20 - 30 knots) associated with a weak upper-level trough across the central Caribbean, although it appears the shear will relax considerably as the trough shifts westward. [Update: The 0Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model keeps wind shear for 97L below 10 knots through Wednesday.] There is also a modest amount of dry air from the Sarahan Air Layer extending across the region of 97L’s track. Both the ECMWF and GFS model runs from 12Z Saturday keep 97L as an open wave during its trek across the eastern Caribbean. Ensemble guidance suggests only a modest chance of 97L traversing the eastern Caribbean as a tropical depression, based on the 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models. Ensemble forecasts are produced by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes. Only a small fraction of ensemble members develop 97L over the next several days.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Invest 97L in the western tropical Atlantic as of 2115Z (5:15 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

In its 2 PM outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Given the system’s vigorous growth today, and the mix of positives and negatives noted above, I’ll lay 50% odds on the chance that 97L will be at least a tropical depression by Monday, though it would probably struggle to maintain that status over the next several days. Squally weather, with bursts of heavy rain and wind gusts of 30-40 mph, can be expected through Sunday across the Lesser Antilles and beyond as 97L whips through the area. A flash flood watch is in effect for Sunday across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with rains of 2-4” predicted and higher amounts possible.

The long-range outlook for 97L
If 97L manages to organize even modestly over the next 2-3 days, we’ll have to keep a close eye on it. Model trends have been to route 97L on a fairly direct west to west-northwest path across the northern Caribbean, perhaps missing Hispaniola and most likely staying south of Cuba. Assuming that 97L forms a center of circulation and avoids major interaction with the high terrain of these islands, it will be well situated to strengthen--perhaps significantly--by late next week. A convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) has tended to suppress upward motion across the tropical Atlantic this week, but by later next week 97L may enter a region where the CCKW pattern favors upward motion. In addition, SSTs across the northwest Caribbean are very warm (29°C or 84°F, about 1°C above average), and there is a near-record amount of heat in the upper ocean to support rapid development if atmospheric conditions turn out to be favorable.

The SHIPS statistical intensity model is increasingly bullish on 97L, with the 18Z Saturday run of SHIPS bringing 97L to a Category 3 strength by Thursday. The last several runs of the HWRF model, which has shown increasing skill over the last several years, also project 97L to reach hurricane strength in the Caribbean (although the 12Z Saturday run appears to have had initialization problems, as noted by WU member Levi Cowan). The 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, two of the other more-trustworthy dynamical models, suggest that 97L could begin organizing just before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and then develop further in the Bay of Campeche by late next week. It is far too soon to assign any confidence to model projections in this time range, but the available guidance indicates that 97L is well worth watching. NHC gives 97L a 60% chance of development by Thursday, August 4.


Figure 2. Surface winds across the tropical Atlantic at 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. The surface circulation is less organized with Invest 97L (far left) with Invest 96L (right), as 96L features weaker winds overall but a more evident surface circulation. Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.


Figure 3. Infrared satellite image of Invest 96L in the eastern tropical Atlantic as of 2045 (5:15 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

96L is struggling
Although the circulation of Invest 96L in the eastern tropical Atlantic is more organized than that of 97L, there isn’t much meat on the bones. There was only scattered convection on Saturday around the core of 96L, which is located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes. Although SSTs of around 28°C are more than adequate for development, wind shear of 5-10 knots along 96L’s path will increase to moderate levels (15 - 25 knots) over the next 2-4 days, and there is a large region of Sarahan dust lying ahead of 96L. Only a small fraction of ECMWF and GFS ensemble members have 96L as a depression in the central Atlantic by the middle of next week, and NHC gives 96L a 20% chance of development through Thursday.

Eighth Northeast Pacific storm of the month?
We may yet set a record for the largest number of named storms on record to develop in the eastern Pacific Ocean in the month of July. Invest 91E was gathering its forces on Saturday about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. On this track, 91E should steer well clear of any major land areas, but in its tropical weather outlook issued at 2 PM EDT Saturday, NHC gave the system a 70% chance of development by Monday and a 90% chance by Thursday. If it manages to become Tropical Storm Howard before Monday, it will be the record-breaking eighth named storm this month. In the longer range, it’s possible that 91E will take a leftward-arcing path that would carry it or its remnants toward the Hawaiian Islands in about a week’s time.


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Nida as of 2130Z (5:30 pm EDT) Saturday, July 30, 2016. Image credit: RAMMB/CSU/NOAA.

Nida on track to reach the southeast China coast
Tropical Storm Nida will be sweeping across the northernmost part of the Philippines island of Luzon late Sunday. Nida’s surface winds were 50 mph as of 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Saturday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Nida has little time to strengthen before it slides across Luzon, and most areas will be on its weaker south side, but a large swath of convection will bring very heavy rains to the northern half of the island. Impacts could be considerably greater when Nida reaches the southeast China coast early next week. Models are in strong agreement on a straightforward west-northwest track for Nida, and very warm SSTs combined with only modest upper-level shear (10-20 knots) are quite favorable for strengthening. Model consensus brings Nida very close to Hong Kong by early Tuesday local time. Although many typhoons pass close enough to Hong Kong to bring high winds and heavy rain, a direct strike from a typhoon is less common. The 2100Z Saturday outlook from JTWC projects that Nida will pass directly over Hong Kong as a minimal typhoon.

We’ll be back with an update by Monday morning, or sooner if 97L develops into a tropical depression.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. WU tracking map showing the track and strength of Tropical Storm Nida projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Saturday, July 29, 2016.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1997. IDTH:


I guess I'm a dinosaur wearing a pink toto, who also loves eating crow. Yum delicious!

Nobody will know until morning when we can judge low-level cloud motions. There are no available observations, recon, etc. They're just as in the dark as we are.
2002. ackee
I knew all long 97L was too organize not to develop before western carribbean plus conditions right for development Jamaica seems likely get very close past by this system I think recon needs go into the system track could change great job team 70 west system could exploded not mention south of Jamaica
The NHC didn't classify because theY wanted to see a dinosaur in toto, who wouldn't want to see that?
2004. IDTH
Quoting 2001. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nobody will know until morning when we can judge low-level cloud motions. There are no available observations, recon, etc. They're just as in the dark as we are.

Yeah you're right. I'm off to sleep I'm quite tired now.
Was almost right with my forecast for 2am
Quoting 1990. SSL1441:


I'm sure South Carolina and the Bahamas would beg to differ.


Joaquin served a role but was not solely responsible for what happened in South Carolina.
2007. ackee
When was last time we had red alert in the east central carribbean
2008. SSL1441
Quoting 2006. Astrometeor:



Joaquin served a role but was not solely responsible for what happened in South Carolina.


Maybe not, but I sincerely doubt the people who had their homes submerged really cared about the precise details of what caused their homes to be uNader water.
If you check the surface wind map at https://earth.nullschool.net/
Link
it doesn't look like there is a closed circulation yet.
But it sure as he** looks like it should from all the observations!
BTW, nice to see over 2000 comments on a blog again!
Which barb to trust...

So, as of now, 97L is classified as a well organized tropical disturbance with tropical storm force winds. Okay, time for bed. Nite everyone.
Quoting 2010. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which barb to trust...


I trust barbamz.
2013. ackee
Quoting 2005. 77w18nKingston:

Was almost right with my forecast for 2am
true I hope if watch are going be issued for Jamaica other countries be sometime today not tommmrow strengthen system
Any chance of this affecting South Florida?
I can see it now by sunrise be nothing but a collapsing thunderstorm and convectively starved during the day tomorrow


9 am comment
yep it just closed off but now its a naked swirl with tropical storm force winds lol
2016. SSL1441
Quoting 2014. kuppenskup:

Any chance of this affecting South Florida?


Gonna step out on a limb and say, NOPE.
Quoting 2009. swflurker:

If you check the wind map at
Link
it doesn't look like there is a closed circulation yet.
But it sure as he** looks like it should from all the observations!


Is
Quoting 2014. kuppenskup:

Any chance of this affecting South Florida?
u safe its west nw west all the way no higher 18 19 north
Wow
They wait 5 minutes to post my question. By then 3/4 of the world will be going nite nite!
The 0z Euro is as bullish as it's ever been. A developed 997mb tropical storm east of Jamaica in 24 hours.

Quoting 2010. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which barb to trust...




The one that most fits your agenda, not the facts.
Quoting 2018. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u safe its west nw west all the way no higher 18 19 north

Thank you!
2023. vis0

CREDIT::  NASA/NOAA
T&D:: 201607-31;0515u til 201608-01;0445u
SAT:: avn
OBS:: Is it still 97L i'm still on pg 21
PRESENTATION:: aniGIF(3.35 /3.52 MB)
image host
FOR ALL IN THE PATH of ANY rain maker causing FLOODING will do serious damage and even take lives, be prepared now so when the time comes one is not cursing, acting like a chicken with its head cut off instead its second nature as to what to do.

2024. SSL1441
Quoting 2015. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I can see it now by sunrise be nothing but a collapsing thunderstorm and convectively starved during the day tomorrow


9 am comment
yep it just closed off but now its a naked swirl lol


So in other words, a normal Atlantic storm Then?
2025. IDTH
Quoting 2020. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z Euro is as bullish as it's ever been. A developed 997mb tropical storm east of Jamaica in 24 hours.



Okay I lied, I'm still awake. I might as well since the Euro run is coming out right now.
Quoting 2020. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z Euro is as bullish as it's ever been. A developed 997mb tropical storm east of Jamaica in 24 hours.





*COUGH*
wilma
Quoting 2019. kuppenskup:

Wow
They wait 5 minutes to post my question. By then 3/4 of the world will be going nite nite!


Better than the 20-30 minute lag time from earlier. Want to know how we reached 2,000 comments on this blog? Rapid posting...not healthy for the servers. Patience. Besides, most folks went to sleep some time ago. It's 2 AM Eastern time, lol.
2028. ackee
Quoting 2025. IDTH:


Okay I lied, I'm still awake. I might as well since the Euro run is coming out right now.
wow EuRo very quickly pick up environmental conditions seem spot on
Makes landfall in central Belize as a hurricane.

comments should drop right off now sleep time soon
2032. ackee
Hwrf and nam saw this first now EuRo as join the party
TXNT21 KNES 010607
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 01/0545Z

C. 15.6N

D. 67.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.0. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
TXNT21 KNES 010607
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 01/0545Z

C. 15.6N

D. 67.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON .3+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.0. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Goodnight blog.

Quoting 2008. SSL1441:



Maybe not, but I sincerely doubt the people who had their homes submerged really cared about the precise details of what caused their homes to be uNader water.


Whether the homeowners care about the physics of the situation is irrelevant. The statement made was that this year could prove to be more interesting tropically than that of the prior years. S.C. doesn't have a role against that position, due to the nature of its flooding.
Quoting 2013. ackee:

true I hope if watch are going be issued for Jamaica other countries be sometime today not tommmrow strengthen system


I hope there is a status upgrade in time for a storm watch or warning but all the stores are closed today so will be crazy when news gets out there this morning!!!
2037. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA/NOAA
T&D:: 201608-01;0415u
SAT:: avn

image host
2038. ackee
Quoting 2036. negriltracy:



I hope there is a status upgrade in time for a storm watch or warning but all the stores are closed today so will be crazy when news gets out there this morning!!!
what concerns me water south oh hati to Jamaica are very warm maybe be reason Euro shows 997m east Jamaica. I am wondering if grand Gala will be put off
Just completed my 76th blog update of the Atlantic season...


I think we will have Tropical Storm Earl from 97-L hitting Jamaica (tomorrow night) and the Cayman Islands (Tuesday), I just hope it doesn't surprise them as this thing has been declared yet.
2041. SLU
97LINVEST.40kts-1007mb-157N-691W
Quoting 2030. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Makes landfall in central Belize as a hurricane.



I think some of the model runs like this one are too far south...this system would have to move basically due west at this point to reach Belize. But yesterday this thing was at 15N latitude and looks more like at 16.5N latitude (WNW track). It seems the WNW track would take it to the Yucatan to the north of Belize.
01/0545 UTC 15.6N 67.9W T2.0/2.0 97L
97L a possible rain maker for us. Let's see what the updates say later
How strong will 97L be if IF it makes landfall in texas/mexico? Why?
A. TD
B. TS
C. Cat 1
D. Cat 2
E. Cat 3
F. Cat 4
G. Cat 5
AL, 97, 2016080106, 01, CARQ, 0, 157N, 691W, 40, 1007, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 275, 15, INVEST, D,
Quoting 2041. SLU:

97LINVEST.40kts-1007mb-157N-691W


I say plot a bit too S

forward speed has dropped a good bit too

models have shifted N slightly

however models still have movement way too fast I an discounting it some what for that reason IMO

2049. ackee
Quoting 2044. wunderkidcayman:

01/0545 UTC 15.6N 67.9W T2.0/2.0 97L
looking recent satellite Almost looks like eye form cloud clouds top
Quoting 2046. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

How strong will 97L be if IF it makes landfall in texas/mexico? Why?
A. TD
B. TS
C. Cat 1
D. Cat 2
E. Cat 3
F. Cat 4
G. Cat 5
D
2051. FOREX
Quoting 2042. NCHurricane2009:


I think some of the model runs like this one are too far south...this system would have to move basically due west at this point to reach Belize. But yesterday this thing was at 15N latitude and looks more like at 16.5N latitude (WNW track). It seems the WNW track would take it to the Yucatan to the north of Belize.

Agree,earlier this evening the WNW turn began,putting Belize out of play at the moment.It does look like a Yucatan hit.Good Observation!!!
Quoting 2050. HurricaneAndre:

D

Why do you think so.
This seems to be an Emancipation storm. Seriously 97 L is moving fast and organizing its self. Is that Earl I see and will it hit us directly. Most stores are closed tomorrow . So I hope its just a rain maker. Jamaica can't take no surprise right now. Gonna check my rechargeable lights just in case.
2054. ackee
I think 97L could be earl 5am looking at satellite there no doubt this is earl recon needs to check out center is clearly around 16n model have it too far south
97e looks better than Colin already.
It really should be upgraded in the the next special advisory. A recon flight is in order. Is there a well defined closed circulation?
2056. Uragani
Quoting 1863. OracleDeAtlantis:

Given the record heat potential ahead .... and near perfect conditions aloft, it's hard not to imagine seeing things in the clouds ...


Source: US Dept. of Energy


Coincidentally about 7 hours ago near Dominican Republic right about where the blob in this quoted picture is there was an earthquake (Magn. 3.1).
2057. Walshy
lots of misconception being spread around

#1 no RI (rapid intensification) will occur with a tropical wave
no eyewall w/ no circulation
no matter how far north it gets in the Caribbean, ridge over east coast will shunt the system south-west away from the central Gulf of Mexico
heavy rains ARE needed in places like southern Puerto Rico and other areas in the path of this storm
97L/Future TS Earl

is doing really really good

its alos slowing down its forward speed which will help system develop but also if a slow moving storm over the very high record breaking TCHP/OHC RI can be out of the question


they have to get a recon flight out into 97L today
Quoting 2046. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

How strong will 97L be if IF it makes landfall in texas/mexico? Why?
A. TD
B. TS
C. Cat 1
D. Cat 2
E. Cat 3
F. Cat 4
G. Cat 5
Ok I'll bite, just to make the late night blog a little interesting. Since this is pure speculation I will say F. I think 97L will become our first major hurricane of 2016. I think 97L will reach Jamaica as a strong tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane. If it does it should be able to take advantage of the high TCHP between Jamaica and the Yucatan. Rapid intensification during this period is not out of the question. Water vapor shows no dry air to limit intensification and wind shear does not seem to be an issue in the immediate future. 97L should ride the periphery of the high. It's northward progress will be dependent on intensity.
2060. Walshy
ridge over east coast should cause a WSW movement post Jamaica...bringing it well south from the Yucatan

I can evidently see a spin.
0z Euro showing a Cat 1, with the heat potential that's off the charts in its path can't rule out a major here. RI will likely occur given the environment ahead. I'm still curious about the WSW movement in a few days this may track a little more north then models show
Quoting 2059. BastropTX:

Ok I'll bite, just to make the late night blog a little interesting. Since this is pure speculation I will say F. I think 97L will become our first major hurricane of 2016. I think 97L will reach Jamaica as a strong tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane. If it does it should be able to take advantage of the high TCHP between Jamaica and the Yucatan. Rapid intensification during this period is not out of the question. Water vapor shows no dry air to limit intensification and wind shear does not seem to be an issue in the immediate future. 97L should ride the periphery of the high. It's northward progress will be dependent on intensity.

I would put my forecast at a strong category 2 to a cat 3 assuming it continues with its speed. Otherwise, the only other limit is land interaction when it nears land. The main problem to me in the forecast is like you said the speed of the strengthening which determines If it turns a lot towards the north or not.
Good night! I will check in tommorow. Let's hope it does not intenside too fast! If that happens, Texas and/or Mexico should prepare.
Quoting 2065. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


I would put my forecast at a strong category 2 to a cat 3 assuming it continues with its speed. Otherwise, the only other limit is land interaction when it nears land. The main problem to me in the forecast is like you said the speed of the strengthening which determines If it turns a lot towards the north or not.
I agree. My scenario is based on limited land interaction, clipping the northern Yucatan so it has more time over the gulf.
2068. Walshy
due to running into land, I would say that pretty much lowers the chances of a major by a lot. there is no wiggle room to go north because of the ridge that is set in stone for sure 100%. Belize needs to be preparing for a weak hurricane.
Quoting 2064. WeatherkidJoe2323:

0z Euro showing a Cat 1, with the heat potential that's off the charts in its path can't rule out a major here. RI will likely occur given the environment ahead. I'm still curious about the WSW movement in a few days this may track a little more north then models show


If a trough shows up later on it will definitely turn north
2070. Walshy
east coast ridge will save south Texas and northern Mexico imo.
This is not a TD?
2072. Walshy
nope no closed center of circulation how many times do we have to say that
Quoting 2071. Carnivorous:

This is not a TD?

More like a 45kt TS.
Quoting 2072. Walshy:

nope no closed center of circulation how many times do we have to say that
Dude we get it ok
Yikes I really think we would be calling it earl very soon/shortly

First bit of microwave imagery for today

Link
Quoting 2075. wunderkidcayman:

Yikes I really think we would be calling it earl very soon/shortly

First bit of microwave imagery for today

Link
Me too, gee how obvious is it.
Quoting 2074. HurricaneAndre:

Dude we get it ok


Lol dude is nuts what a troll

How are you Andre
Quoting 2070. Walshy:

east coast ridge will save south Texas and northern Mexico imo.

Ridges do and will break down at some point....
Quoting 2077. wunderkidcayman:



Lol dude is nuts what a troll

How are you Andre
Hey Wkid. Wonder when we we'll have Earl.
Quoting 2076. HurricaneAndre:

Me too, gee how obvious is it.


Also system has slowed down in forward speed and should continue to slow more I think as it nears Jamaica may take a more WNW track plus intensifying its a bad combo building might end up with a Major out of this
Quoting 2079. HurricaneAndre:

Hey Wkid. Wonder when we wI'll have Earl.


At the rate it's going at I'd say the earliest later this morning and the latest this evening or tonight

Quoting 2080. wunderkidcayman:



Also system has slowed down in forward speed and should continue to slow more I think as it nears Jamaica may take a more WNW track plus intensifying its a bad combo building might end up with a Major out of this
Yes, I agree. I wish we had recon out there.
Quoting 2077. wunderkidcayman:



Lol dude is nuts what a troll

How are you Andre


LOL

Nice to see both of you guys here because I am having Sandy flashbacks ATM
I finally found the screws for the window boards but some of the boards are rotted out and there are no stores open tomorrow here (Emancipation Day) so I really hope the wind doesnt intensify but have a bad feeling about this one...your thoughts?!
Quoting 2083. negriltracy:



LOL

Nice to see both of you guys here because I am having Sandy flashbacks ATM
I finally found the screws for the window boards but some of the boards are rotted out and there are no stores open tomorrow here (Emancipation Day) so I really hope the wind doesnt intensify but have a bad feeling about this one...your thoughts?!

Well good on getting prepared, but this seems like a Mexico system. Wait next week, and that's when the fun begins. ;)
2085. barbamz
Quoting 2012. TheBigBanana:

I trust barbamz.

Lol, Banana. Have to admit I always get a bit nervous when someone mentions a "barb" in here.
And, ummh, more than 2000 comments. What did you talk about all night?


Sure, divergence, convergence and vorticity in 97L is much better aligned this morning. Will be a busy Monday!

Quoting 2084. HurricaneAndre:

Well good on getting prepared, but this seems like a Mexico system. Wait next week, and that's when the fun begins. ;)


I am thinking Dean track with Sandy strength, it sure looks like it has closed up and really wish they would send recon in!!!
Quoting 2082. HurricaneAndre:

Yes, I agree. I wish we had recon out there.


They have to send one out there today

Quoting 2083. negriltracy:



LOL

Nice to see both of you guys here because I am having Sandy flashbacks ATM
I finally found the screws for the window boards but some of the boards are rotted out and there are no stores open tomorrow here (Emancipation Day) so I really hope the wind doesnt intensify but have a bad feeling about this one...your thoughts?!



I have accordion shutters over 95% of the Windows and glass doors and a few sheet of board for the other 5%

They way I'm thinking I think it may not come around jamaica till mid to late Tuesday maybe Wed might buy you some time
I do think it will continue to slow down in forward speed so it should help a bit

Yeah I got a bad feeling about this one too

Quoting 2084. HurricaneAndre:

Well good on getting prepared, but this seems like a Mexico system. Wait next week, and that's when the fun begins. ;)


Mind you if it start RI whilst nearing Jamaica movement should shift even further Northward that would be even bigger problem to me in Cayman it's certainly possible
Quoting 2086. negriltracy:



I am thinking Dean track with Sandy strength, it sure looks like it has closed up and really wish they would send recon in!!!


Yeah I said this earlier yesterday a dean type track for 97L

I hope they fly today
2089. barbamz


Quake-hit region braces for Typhoon Nida in China
Xinhua, August 1, 2016

With Typhoon Nida set to make landfall Tuesday, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is checking for any risks that may cause secondary disasters after it experienced a moderate earthquake Sunday.
The 5.4-magnitude tremor in Cangwu County, Wuzhou City, was felt at 5:18 p.m., some houses in two townships close to the epicenter were damaged. No casualties have been reported, according to the local government.
County head Xie Shangao said the damaged houses were mostly constructed with mud-brick or clay, and residents have been relocated to properties belonging to village Communist Party of China (CPC) committees or schools.
"Typhoon Nida is expected to sweep across the region, bringing more risks for further disasters," he said.
Specialists are examining houses, bridges, reservoirs, embankments and hydropower stations to prevent secondary disasters, said Lin Shufeng, Party head of the Cangwu County.
Zhong Guoli, from Siai Village, said the tremor left some minor cracks on his cement house, and an uninhabited mud house nearby collapsed.
"We are scared to asleep at night, and are ready to run outside if we feel an aftershock," he said.
Guangxi Zhuang weather station has issued a yellow alert for storms, forecasting torrential rains across the region in the next three days. The typhoon is expected to make landfall in south China Tuesday.


SAR braces for Typhoon Nida
By chinadailyasia.com
HONG KONG — The approach of tropical cyclone Nida, precipitated closure of Hong Kong Kindergartens Monday, along with schools for children with physical and mental disabilities.
Strong Wind Signal No 3 was raised at around 11:40, Monday morning. The Hong Kong Observatory cautioned it may issue Signal Number 8 between 6 pm and 10 pm.
The suspension of classes was announced by the Education Bureau about an hour before Signal Number 3 was hoisted. The department also requested appropriate accommodation and contingency measures for children who had already arrived at school.
Nida is reported to be moving quickly toward the coast of Guangdong. The Observatory predicts that the current moderate winds will strengthen significantly by evening.
The Observatory predicted that Nida will pass near to Hong Kong either late tonight or early Tuesday, leading to a sharp deterioration of weather after sunset. It also warned the public to stay away from the low-lying areas as the threat of flooding will intensify as the typhoon’s storm surge coincides with high tide Tuesday morning.


More than 120 flights to and from Hong Kong cancelled as Typhoon Nida approaches
I am actually in Kingston not Negril (Sandy's eye came right over our house in Beverly Hills) but Tuesday would be way better than tonight in terms of prep although I think we will be ok regardless as some shops will surely open to price gouge if a warning or watch goes up LOL
2091. Walshy
Quoting 2078. Hester122:


Ridges do and will break down at some point....


Extreme drought in GA, SC, and AL would beg to differ. This east coast ridge is well modeled and will not break down at any point for this tropical wave to move anywhere near the Yucatan, central GOM, or south Texas. It will break down eventually yes but a true pattern change may not come until December by the looks of it.
Quoting 2087. wunderkidcayman:



Mind you if it start RI whilst nearing Jamaica movement should shift even further Northward that would be even bigger problem to me in Cayman it's certainly possible


I hope it steers clear of Cayman you get rolled over there!!!
Quoting 2092. negriltracy:



Maybe maybe not

If it does I'm sure we can handle it if we've been through hurricane Ivan we can handle anything else that is thrown our way
Quoting 2071. Carnivorous:

This is not a TD?



ABSOLUTELY -I think its safe to say that this is at least a Tropical Depression...again the bias of the NHC towards under-rating Atlantic tropical disturbances and non-classification of obviously strengthening systems is at times just baffling.
This has to be one of the most mystifying and unjustified NON-DESIGNATION of a system in quite some time...while on the other hand for example we had Colin in the Gulf etc...utterly pathetic.
As I said previously yesterday's bad weather associated with the passage of 97L was certainly not the typical weather associated with just a strong/ vigorous tropical wave. We certainly had at least Tropical Depression conditions and perhaps even more so over in Martinique.
The HWRF seems to have been right in its future predicitions for the development of this system...Our thoughts and prayers to those who may now be in the path of what is Clearly T.S. Earl in the making.
God Bless!
2095. LargoFl
Quoting 2093. wunderkidcayman:



Maybe maybe not

If it does I'm sure we can handle it if we've been through hurricane Ivan we can handle anything else that is thrown our way


Ditto I just shudder at the thought of being at sea level, we are up about 700ft on a solid rocky hill with no chance of surges or floods at least!!!
2097. LargoFl
starting to see early fronts comming down from canada... could be a good sign to protect the conus the next few months
2099. Walshy
intensity models coming in weaker now showing maybe a cat1 or a strong tropical storm if it runs into land quick no more major status. this falls in line with the king euro model.
Quoting 2088. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah I said this earlier yesterday a dean type track for 97L

I hope they fly today

I have a hurricane center (just a website pretty much actually, we don't have NHC Offices or something like that) and one of the 2 man crew (me and some other guy) flew a drone into 97L two times, 1 time per day. The most recent flight was yesterday, where it recorded an almost closed circulation (circulation wasn't in the southeast quadrant). Now since it's passed so much time, it's a TS. It also recorded in the 2 flights 40 mph winds and 50-55 mph gusts.
2101. ackee
Quoting 2094. NatureIsle:



ABSOLUTELY -I think its safe to say that this is at least a Tropical Depression...again the bias of the NHC towards under-rating Atlantic tropical disturbances and non-classification of obviously strengthening systems is at times just baffling.
This has to be one of the most mystifying and unjustified NON-DESIGNATION of a system in quite some time...while on the other hand for example we had Colin in the Gulf etc...utterly pathetic.
As I said previously yesterday's bad weather associated with the passage of 97L was certainly not the typical weather associated with just a strong/ vigorous tropical wave. We certainly had at least Tropical Depression conditions and perhaps even more so over in Martinique.
The HWRF seems to have been right in its future predicitions for the development of this system...Our thoughts and prayers to those who may now be in the path of what is Clearly T.S. Earl in the making.
God Bless!

agree if this was in the GOM it would have been upgraded to Earl
Quoting 2095. LargoFl:




Northern trends will start. Book it.
I think people and models are overestimating the strength of the ridge..... underestimating the current strength of the system which looks better than Bertha 2014 or Colin 2016 already... that microwave pass definitely shows its AT LEAST a closed system.... I really also do NOT understand how NHC has not AT LEAST upgraded this to a TD!
97l has got to be the most impressive invest I've seen. This will most definitely be upgraded to earl this morning. Curious how strong do y'all think this already is?
wow woke up to mega tw
Quoting 2100. NunoLava1998:


I have a hurricane center (just a website pretty much actually, we don't have NHC Offices or something like that) and one of the 2 man crew (me and some other guy) flew a drone into 97L two times, 1 time per day. The most recent flight was yesterday, where it recorded an almost closed circulation (circulation wasn't in the southeast quadrant). Now since it's passed so much time, it's a TS. It also recorded in the 2 flights 40 mph winds and 50-55 mph gusts.


Lol...
models are guessing right now gfs euro out to lunch
According to the last 2 coordinates 97L has only moved 31nm in 6 hours. Big slow down. Pressure was 1007 mb with winds @ 40 kts. which means at least a TD. Gotta wait on NHC to call it though. Sure hope they decide to send HH out rtoday instead of tomorrow.
2109. WxLogic
Good Morning
2110. LargoFl
well IF it gets into the Gulf.............................................. ...................
NWS CC,TX Eyes then turn to the tropics for the weekend. Tropical wave south
of Hispaniola appears to have become better organized overnight.
Development into a tropical system is likely over the next 48 hours.
Model guidance in pretty good agreement for the next couple of days
tracking the system to the Yucatan Peninsula. Beyond that, much
of the guidance continue a Bay of Campeche track. However, some
tracks start a more northwestward curve before landfall. It is
still very early, too early to have any confidence in a track at
this point, but rain chances, increased swells and rip currents
will all be possible through the middle Texas coastal waters over
the weekend.
Good morning. I see 97L is looking too good not to be a TS.
2113. LargoFl
2114. ackee
Bulletin #1

FISHERS ADVISED TO EVACUATE NOW …TROPICAL WAVE BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM TODAY

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE, now in the central Caribbean, has become much better organized and continues to move closer to Jamaica. Indications are that the system could be classified as a tropical storm later today or by Tuesday morning as it nears the island.

Satellite imagery indicates that the large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave extends a distance of over 500 kilometres (300 miles) and is located just south of the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. Although a closed circulation has not yet been confirmed, reliable estimations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are already occurring on the northern and eastern areas of the large disturbance.

Fishers on the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and those in port are advised not to venture out.

As the Wave moves into the western Caribbean Sea, locally heavy rains, thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected to reach Jamaica late today. Flash flooding is, therefore, likely to spread across the island tonight and Tuesday, especially over low-lying areas of southern parishes.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this strong Tropical Wave, and all interests must pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.
cdj
As knowledgeable as some here are about tropical meteorology--or at least as knowledgeable as they like to think they are--none possess more than a tiny fraction of the combined decades of advanced education and professional experience of the good people at the NHC. So feel perfectly free to ignore any comments accusing those at the NHC of "bias" or of "having an agenda" or whatever. If the NHC doesn't classify or designate or upgrade a particular system, rest assured that's for no other reason than that they don't yet feel classification, designation, or upgrading is warranted. Some rank amateurs sitting at home watching model plots and satellite loops clearly feel otherwise, and they let us know about it here. But, as with other very important matters, you're better off sticking with the opinion of the pros...
2116. Walshy
it would take a cat 5 annular hurricane to plow into the east coast ridge into an area that is experiencing EXTREME drought in the s/e....this storm will whimper to the ridge and run into Belize instead.
1009mb in Kingston
97L sustained convection and even expanded it more suggests that there is a LLC as convergence has increased in that area. ASCAT pass did not show a closed circulation but it did not catch the entire system only the Eastern side. Also the wave has slowed down some more overnight allowing the MLC to become more align than ever. With winds whipping to 40-45 mph, I dont see how this system is not TS Earl (as it continues to expand and intensify its CDO), but a messy ill-defined cyclone like TS Colin was ever classified. Jamaica needs TC watches/warnings to go up so they can prepare and take this storm seriously.
Quoting 2072. Walshy:

nope no closed center of circulation how many times do we have to say that


The microwave image I posted shows pretty significant evidence of tropical cyclogenesis. Mr. Ventrice even goes ahead and says this is already a TS!

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 4m4 minutes ago
No doubt #97L has developed into Tropical Storm #Earl. Nice comma structure in the 85GHz microwave imagery.
2120. JRRP7

almost looks like annular INVEST
97L has moved 2 degrees in the past 5 hours, an indication that it has slowed its forward speed, potentially enough for tropical development.
Hey Islander. Until we get a closed circ, recon data and soundings I think we are all just making educated guesses as to the track. Best case it never gets organized, moves quickly and takes the Euro track into Belize where it dissipates. Worst case is it only clips the northern Yucatan, ends up in GOM, meanders and strengthens. The longer out in time, the more possibility of some weakness in the ridge that allows a move north. From Belize to FL is still potential landfall. We will have a much better idea in 24-36 hours. Quite the kick off to the CV season.

Quoting 2107. islander101010:

models are guessing right now this is a cyclone. maybe the woof got it somewhat right gfs euro out to lunch
Jim Cantore says due west into Belize with 97L.
Me thinks this thing is already at least a TD. I think the next model runs will have a more northley component. Probibly southern TX. Wont know for sure until the models have a closed COC to lock onto. Need coffee. Be back later.
wait to 97 passes jamaica climatology favorable
Geez slowing and growing. Oh boy get ready for significant track changes back and forth. I think they will send recon today. The blog will be in a tizzy.

Quoting 2113. LargoFl:


Good morning. Looking at the CIMSS maps, something is in the works with 97L, and it isn't really what I would have expected. Certainly appears that the low level (850mb) vorticity max has weakened and jumped south to line up almost perfectly now with the 500mb vort max. 700mb is still further north and out of alignment though, which is strange. First light about to arrive.
2128. ackee
Bulletin #1

FISHERS ADVISED TO EVACUATE NOW …TROPICAL WAVE BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM TODAY

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE, now in the central Caribbean, has become much better organized and continues to move closer to Jamaica. Indications are that the system could be classified as a tropical storm later today or by Tuesday morning as it nears the island.

Satellite imagery indicates that the large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave extends a distance of over 500 kilometres (300 miles) and is located just south of the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. Although a closed circulation has not yet been confirmed, reliable estimations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are already occurring on the northern and eastern areas of the large disturbance.

Fishers on the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and those in port are advised not to venture out.

As the Wave moves into the western Caribbean Sea, locally heavy rains, thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected to reach Jamaica late today. Flash flooding is, therefore, likely to spread across the island tonight and Tuesday, especially over low-lying areas of southern parishes.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this strong Tropical Wave, and all interests must pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.
cdj
2129. ackee
Quoting 2118. Ricki13th:

97L sustained convection and even expanded it more suggests that there is a LLC as convergence has increased in that area. ASCAT pass did not show a closed circulation but it did not catch the entire system only the Eastern side. Also the wave has slowed down some more overnight allowing the MLC to become more align than ever. With winds whipping to 40-45 mph, I dont see how this system is not TS Earl (as it continues to expand and intensify its CDO), but a messy ill-defined cyclone like TS Colin was ever classified. Jamaica needs TC watches/warnings to go up so they can prepare and take this storm seriously. So true Colin was in Gom that why
This LOOKS like it is already a TD. When the models get a closed COC to lock onto things will start to firm up on track. I am thinking a S TX, MX, border hit.
Bulletin #1

FISHERS ADVISED TO EVACUATE NOW …TROPICAL WAVE BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM TODAY

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE, now in the central Caribbean, has become much better organized and continues to move closer to Jamaica. Indications are that the system could be classified as a tropical storm later today or by Tuesday morning as it nears the island.

Satellite imagery indicates that the large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave extends a distance of over 500 kilometres (300 miles) and is located just south of the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. Although a closed circulation has not yet been confirmed, reliable estimations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are already occurring on the northern and eastern areas of the large disturbance.

Fishers on the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and those in port are advised not to venture out.

As the Wave moves into the western Caribbean Sea, locally heavy rains, thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected to reach Jamaica late today. Flash flooding is, therefore, likely to spread across the island tonight and Tuesday, especially over low-lying areas of southern parishes.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this strong Tropical Wave, and all interests must pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.
cdj
Quoting 2123. Bucsboltsfan:

Jim Cantore says due west into Belize with 97L.

If the Euro is correct and it ramps up quite a bit, I don't see a Belize track. The high pressure about the system is strong but not to the levels of 2007 which slammed dean into mexico. A gradual bend NW around that high makes more sense for a stronger system. Wouldn't rule out Southern Texas but Northern Mexico should pay high alert.
2133. beell
Looking like it has slowed down alot...if it does build, models should go more north.....guess there not sending the plane till tomorrow...yep this close makes
sense..smh
2135. ackee
Pre Earl / 97L seems expanding size and slowing down
2136. guygee
Melbourne NWS currently pegs maximum effects in ECFL of 97L passing far to the south for late tomorrow.
---
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
327 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
[...]
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...A slug of moisture along the northern
periphery of a passing tropical disturbance (AL97) over the
Caribbean should provide an uptick in convective coverage on
Tuesday. Precipitable water values expected to gradually increase to
upwards of 2+" by mid/late afternoon. Weak steering flow throughout
the lower and middle troposphere suggests outside of some
nocturnal/morning showers over the Atlantic and along the Treasure
Coast, best chances for precipitation will continue to be just
inland from the coast and across the interior. Lowest PoPs along the
Volusia Coast (30%) with gradually increasing chances the further
south and west one goes.
[...]
---
Space coast barrier islands approaching 30 days without significant rain, aside from a couple of brief passing showers in the persistent easterly flow. July rainy season has been a complete bust, although for the entire season so far not nearly as bad as the historically intense and extended fire season of 1998 after the decline of the previous great El Nino.
The 85 GHz H-polarization image can be quickly used to evaluate the tropical cyclone for structural characteristics.




37 GHz H-pol: Single channel imagery product which responds to water and moisture information lower in the storm structure than 85 or 89 GHz channel. The product can help understand the storm structure at a level not feasible using higher frequency 85/89 GHz data.



Good Morning, 97L.
Visual first frame is in...
well see what the nhc say here in a few
97L continues on a north of due west track which is typical of a deepening cyclone to gain some latitude. I think JA could get a direct hit but more than likely it will stay just south of the island. Once it get pass them the western Caribbean is very favorable for development and I would not be shock if it pulled a Joaquin and rapidly intensifying into at least a Cat. 2 storm before interacting with the Yucatan/Belize. I wouldn't trust models until there is some real time recon data being inputted in them. Parts of Northern Mexico and South Texas needs to watch this after it interacts with land and see what's on the other side.
2142. Ed22
Quoting 2139. Abacosurf:

Visual first frame is in...

Good morning weather enthusiasts, to me it's not a invest, it's now tropical storm Earl. The NHC are too picky, picky and conservative that's what I can't take with them.
2143. Siker
06z HWRF says bombs away with its strongest run yet:

starting to see early fronts comming down from canada... could be a good sign to protect the conus the next few months..... Also the huge strong high in the atlantic should stay very strong through october helping to keep storms ots and away from the conus
ex 96 8am Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N36W to 07N37W moving west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 38W-41W. remember this is the one that was suppose to head to the central north atlantic acc to gfs
Quoting 2100. NunoLava1998:


I have a hurricane center (just a website pretty much actually, we don't have NHC Offices or something like that) and one of the 2 man crew (me and some other guy) flew a drone into 97L two times, 1 time per day. The most recent flight was yesterday, where it recorded an almost closed circulation (circulation wasn't in the southeast quadrant). Now since it's passed so much time, it's a TS. It also recorded in the 2 flights 40 mph winds and 50-55 mph gusts.
Wow, that's amazing! Your website/hurricane center has a drone capable of flying mid-level (10,000 ft) storm recon with multiple passes, possibly for hours, and all without being chewed up and spat out by thunderstorms? Who manufactured the drone? What model is it? Is it autonomous, or guided by hand? What's the battery life on the aircraft? What's the UAV service ceiling? What are you using for weather instrumentation? How are you broadcasting/storing telemetry data? Can you share with us a picture of the aircraft, and/or a link to your website? TIA...
Whether or not it is named Earl at the 8 am update I'm very confident 97L will be named today. Consistent organization over last 24 hours.
Looks like a like I'm going to have to add to the block list this morning..
i think the NHC will wait too upgrade it when recon gos out today or at lest i am hoping it will
2150. Ed22
Quoting 2139. Abacosurf:

Visual first frame is in...

To me its current location 70.0 west and 16.0 north moving west-northwest at 15 mph some intensification is possible as it approaches us in Jamaica late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning
Hwrf model has done one of the better jobs with this system so far, basically only model showing a tropical storm at this point in the trek across the Caribbean. As I said a couple days ago I think it had a better handle on it intensity wise.
I expect the NHC to say that advisories and watches/warnings will be initiated soon at the TWO. 90%/100% Let's be responsible here.
Quoting 2139. Abacosurf:

Visual first frame is in...


97L is not ventilating very well I don't really see much banding with it. NHC is doing well from not calling it yet. Reminds me of Dolly.
2154. wpb
poor job no recon flights
2155. GetReal





Well after reviewing the evidence: A much slower moving forward motion, a solid core with a CDO, great out flow in all directions, IMO 97L will be upgraded sometime this morning to TS Earl! I do believe that Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are on the itinerary.
According to the TWD, the NHC has no intentions of upgrading 97L based in the fact that it still lacks a well defined LLC
2157. Walshy
lol blocking people who think the models are just guessing. this is some of the BEST track agreement I have ever seen from the models taking it under the well established east coast ridge. watch out Belize! I know some in Texas want this storm but I don't think even northern Mexico will see much!
After all, the large TW close to the African coast is unimpressive. No models develop it.
Not too sure what to make of 97L right now...no banding, expanding cloud coverage...makes you think that it's going to collapse at any time, but it's still firing convection like crazy..

I'm sure it'd have a better time consolidating if it actually had a LLC...all the other ingredients are in place. Just can't find a place to align
2161. Walshy
the visible pic shows it fanning out on all sides with little to no bands...would not be surprised to see the convection wane. however, western Caribbean still prime for modest strengthening into a Cat1.
For the EPAC


A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure,
continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Been dry as a bone here in Melbourne. They been saying chances of rain all month, not happening. I will believe it when I see it :(
Quoting 2136. guygee:

Melbourne NWS currently pegs maximum effects in ECFL of 97L passing far to the south for late tomorrow.
---
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
327 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
[...]
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...A slug of moisture along the northern
periphery of a passing tropical disturbance (AL97) over the
Caribbean should provide an uptick in convective coverage on
Tuesday. Precipitable water values expected to gradually increase to
upwards of 2+" by mid/late afternoon. Weak steering flow throughout
the lower and middle troposphere suggests outside of some
nocturnal/morning showers over the Atlantic and along the Treasure
Coast, best chances for precipitation will continue to be just
inland from the coast and across the interior. Lowest PoPs along the
Volusia Coast (30%) with gradually increasing chances the further
south and west one goes.
[...]
---
Space coast barrier islands approaching 30 days without significant rain, aside from a couple of brief passing showers in the persistent easterly flow. July rainy season has been a complete bust, although for the entire season so far not nearly as bad as the historically intense and extended fire season of 1998 after the decline of the previous great El Nino.
It may not be the case, but by looking at the current images, and the fact that the nhc has still not jumped. Im almost waiting to see a decoupled llc get ejected or speed out ahead of the main ball of convection. W eve seen it time and time before, Im not saying 100% it will, just have this gut feeling. If not a complete decouple, I do believe the center in not centered under the convection, but on the west side of it. those new feeder bands are suspect. we will see how the day goes, and what the nhc will say.
Quoting 2158. juracanpr1:

After all, the large TW close to the African coast is unimpressive. No models develop it.
Actually, the wave's rotation is looking pretty nice, and the 06z GFS and 00z CMC develop it down the road, also there is basically no SAL ahead of it, so it is surely one to watch very soon.
Quoting 2136. guygee:

(quouting MLB NWS)
Space coast barrier islands approaching 30 days without significant rain, aside from a couple of brief passing showers in the persistent easterly flow. July rainy season has been a complete bust, although for the entire season so far not nearly as bad as the historically intense and extended fire season of 1998 after the decline of the previous great El Nino.

I've been wundering if how this El Nino decline coming on later than years past hasn't just delayed the after fire here.

There has been some differences. In the early 60s, '83 and '98 the wind was prominently from the west after El nino while there has been many days with an east coast seabreeze this year. Though the minimum high temps have broke records, the maximum temps aren't 1998, but probably worse than '83.

Looked at the fire map the other day and those are starting to pick up in numbers for east central and northeast Florida. Grass is brown. Garden struggles.

Looking at GEOS-5 I don't have alot of hope for rain here the next 10 days.


97L it still takes across Yukatan hitting as a possible Tropical Storm, may spin up a little again in the BOC..

Everyone must be over on the NHC site wearing out their F5 keys lol
2168. Ed22
Quoting 2115. Neapolitan:

As knowledgeable as some here are about tropical meteorology--or at least as knowledgeable as they like to think they are--none possess more than a tiny fraction of the combined decades of advanced education and professional experience of the good people at the NHC. So feel perfectly free to ignore any comments accusing those at the NHC of "bias" or of "having an agenda" or whatever. If the NHC doesn't classify or designate or upgrade a particular system, rest assured that's for no other reason than that they don't yet feel classification, designation, or upgrading is warranted. Some rank amateurs sitting at home watching model plots and satellite loops clearly feel otherwise, and they let us know about it here. But, as with other very important matters, you're better off sticking with the opinion of the pros...
Sometimes can take advice general people on this blog too. You have so many technologies out their showing a particular system has a closed Low Level Circulation and they ignore it. I myself remember a tropical system in the Southwestern Caribbean sea and days upon days the system has definite spin closed Low on Asat dispite unfavourable conditions and they ignore that down to last minute before making land fall in Nicaragua/Honduras border. They red coded the system that was already a tropical storm, so tell me we as people should trust them all the time; no!!! they have hidden agenda...
2170. SLU
110mph

Quoting 2168. Ed22:

Sometimes can take advice general people on this blog too. You so many technologies out their showing a particular system has a closed Low Level Circulation and they ignore it. I myself remember a tropical system in the Southwestern Caribbean sea and says upon days the system has definite spin closed Low on Asat dispite unfavourable conditions and they ignore that down to last minute before making land fall in Nicaragua/Honduras border. They red coded the system that was already a tropical storm, so tell me we as people should trust the all the time; no!!! they have hidden agenda...
Is this what they call the (Bob Hope Rule)
2172. Ed22
Quoting 2159. Climate175:


Now we are looking at tropical storm Earl a well organized system to me...
2173. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011155
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brown
2174. Walshy
if i was nhc i would NOT upgrade this wave until I knew for sure there was a center of circulation. I'm still not sold based on meteorological evidence.
2175. ackee
Which model as perform the best with 97L so far

A HwRF
B Nam
C Euro
D GFS
E CMC



2176. Walshy
Quoting 2175. ackee:

Which model as perform the best with 97L so far

A HwRF
B Nam
C Euro
D GFS
E CMC






C
Quoting 2175. ackee:

Which model as perform the best with 97L so far

A HwRF
B Nam
C Euro
D GFS
E CMC




None of them

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011155
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

$$
Forecaster Brown
Well i think we have Earl.
At least now the NHC says the circulation is becoming better defined.
Quoting 2180. Climate175:

At least now the NHC says the circulation is becoming better defined.



and it up too 80/90% 97L will be upgraded at any time it seems i say by 11am we will have are TS
As I read all these comments denouncing the NHC for not naming the storm, I am reminded of Dolly. Even HHers flying it didn't make the NHC declare it - there were no west winds.

Earl will be declared when the system is closed, :-)
2183. Loduck
Quoting 2106. Bucsboltsfan:



Lol...
Reeeeally???
Meanwhile,

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2016 HURRICANE SEASON...
2185. GetReal
Quoting 2180. Climate175:

At least now the NHC says the circulation is becoming better defined.


Yeah I noticed that caveat the NHC included... So they half heart-idly agreed that there is indeed a closed circulation. My question is why not the upgrade to a TD or more likely TS status????
Quoting 2163. hurricanewatcher61:

Been dry as a bone here in Melbourne. They been saying chances of rain all month, not happening. I will believe it when I see it :(
I'm in Rochester, NY and we have a moderate Drought, Both Sat and Sun we had 70-80% chances of rain, and got nothing, kind of annoying. Al least the upper parts of the Genesee Watershed got rain.
Will Hispaniola prevent strong intensification due to terrain disrupting inflow and colder air getting sucked into system?
2190. GetReal
2192. Loduck
Quoting 2168. Ed22:

Sometimes can take advice general people on this blog too. You have so many technologies out their showing a particular system has a closed Low Level Circulation and they ignore it. I myself remember a tropical system in the Southwestern Caribbean sea and days upon days the system has definite spin closed Low on Asat dispite unfavourable conditions and they ignore that down to last minute before making land fall in Nicaragua/Honduras border. They red coded the system that was already a tropical storm, so tell me we as people should trust them all the time; no!!! they have hidden agenda...
Quoting 2168. Ed22:

Sometimes can take advice general people on this blog too. You have so many technologies out their showing a particular system has a closed Low Level Circulation and they ignore it. I myself remember a tropical system in the Southwestern Caribbean sea and days upon days the system has definite spin closed Low on Asat dispite unfavourable conditions and they ignore that down to last minute before making land fall in Nicaragua/Honduras border. They red coded the system that was already a tropical storm, so tell me we as people should trust them all the time; no!!! they have hidden agenda...
Come on.....! And what would their "hidden agenda" be??
Quoting 2184. BahaHurican:

Meanwhile,

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2016 HURRICANE SEASON...



oh really cares about the E PAC
Quoting 2185. GetReal:



Yeah I noticed that caveat the NHC included... So they half heart-idly agreed that there is indeed a closed circulation. My question is why not the upgrade to a TD or more likely TS status????


1. Winds are already TS force
2. The circulation is poorly defined
3. I believe you mean half-heartedly...
2196. ackee
Base on the NHC out look there will be no recon for today I am shock, also seem they wait until 5pm today or 11pm tonight name the system wow areas like Jamaica Hati DR need just prepared by Time NHC decided name this thing EARL and issue watch and warnings TS condition will already be affecting these areas.
Based on what the NHC said I this being declared 5:00pm today by then it might be a moderate 50mph TS. I interested in seeing how the convection evolves over the next several hours.
2198. Ed22
Quoting 2156. JrWeathermanFL:

According to the TWD, the NHC has no intentions of upgrading 97L based in the fact that it still lacks a well defined LLC
They're under their Ac at the NHC cocking up foot on table drinking Coffee, people lives are at risk and they don't have a interests in flying Reconnaissance aircraft into the developing system, what a world we are living in...
Quoting 2194. JrWeathermanFL:



1. Winds are already TS force
2. The circulation is poorly defined
3. I believe you mean half-heartedly...


you are wrong about # 2

if you did not just look at the new tropic weather outlook

the nhc just said

recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight

wish means we could have a TS by 11 am
2200. Loduck
Quoting 2164. watchingnva:

It may not be the case, but by looking at the current images, and the fact that the nhc has still not jumped. Im almost waiting to see a decoupled llc get ejected or speed out ahead of the main ball of convection. W eve seen it time and time before, Im not saying 100% it will, just have this gut feeling. If not a complete decouple, I do believe the center in not centered under the convection, but on the west side of it. those new feeder bands are suspect. we will see how the day goes, and what the nhc will say.
Agreed
Quoting 2170. SLU:

110mph




Looks like HWRF may have done a solid job on this from it's run 24 hours ago. I think it had something very close to 50 knots just SW of Puerto Rico, not to say that it is at that currently, but structurally speaking it's looking very solid. Looks like a depression at the least.

Hope WunderKidcayman is ready, might be a close shave for him. Who knows what potential this storm could reach with the fuel out in front. Also small core system could really wind up quickly.
2202. 19N81W
overnight it has changed direction by 30 degree which means north of the Cayman now......
2203. ackee
I must say I am shock that there will be no recon today wow base on NHC out look also seems no Earl until 5pm or 11pm so here Jamaica HATI Dr other areas should just prepared for tropical storm conditions by the time they decided to name the system tropical storm condition will likely be in these areas already
2204. 19N81W
this system looks more impressive than anything that has formed this year and no name........weird
I guess they have their reasons
2205. 19N81W
on another note no new blog with this action?......
2207. GetReal



The core of 97L continues to track due west... The core of the system may stay south of Jamaica... If we get RI to hurricane status later this afternoon, "Earl" may take a more W to WNW track and threaten the Cayman Islands IMO.
Quoting 2195. Climate175:




I think Grothar would call that a blobzilla until it gets named.
Quoting 2170. SLU:

110mph




I can see my house - south coast of Grand Cayman. Hopefully it ends up far enough way to get some exciting weather without impacting us or putting my boat in a tree!
2210. 19N81W
I am convinced being too dry is worse than being too wet.........
that being said one can cause damage......still though we all need rain and water it makes us who we are....
Quoting 2187. Methurricanes:

I'm in Rochester, NY and we have a moderate Drought, Both Sat and Sun we had 70-80% chances of rain, and got nothing, kind of annoying. Al least the upper parts of the Genesee Watershed got rain.
2211. 62901IL
Quoting 2167. JrWeathermanFL:

Everyone must be over on the NHC site wearing out their F5 keys lol


Uhhh...I just woke up.
Quoting 2175. ackee:

Which model as perform the best with 97L so far

A HwRF
B Nam
C Euro
D GFS
E CMC






I can't say I'd be too impressed with the ECMWF's performance if 97L actually does manage to become a hurricane before reaching the Yucatan. The ECMWF for days has shown pretty much zero development from 97L in the Caribbean (and scare development in the Gulf). Right now it's too early to say which model has done the best, but if I had to say it would be the GFS ensembles.
2213. Loduck
Quoting 2100. NunoLava1998:


I have a hurricane center (just a website pretty much actually, we don't have NHC Offices or something like that) and one of the 2 man crew (me and some other guy) flew a drone into 97L two times, 1 time per day. The most recent flight was yesterday, where it recorded an almost closed circulation (circulation wasn't in the southeast quadrant). Now since it's passed so much time, it's a TS. It also recorded in the 2 flights 40 mph winds and 50-55 mph gusts.
Reeeeeally???
2214. Ed22
Quoting 2192. Loduck:

Come on.....! And what would their "hidden agenda" be??

Come on now, its a big agency; I can bet you if they did have a competition I would be a lot different in how they're doing things concerning this particular system. My problem is they're too lade back thats my problem with the NHC.
Quoting 2194. JrWeathermanFL:



1. Winds are already TS force
2. The circulation is poorly defined
3. I believe you mean half-heartedly...
Opinions on our knowledge of tropical weather is accepted,but the experts from NHC show us the way to do so.
Quoting 2199. Tazmanian:



you are wrong about # 2

if you did not just look at the new tropic weather outlook

the nhc just said

recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight

wish means we could have a TS by 11 am


Too poorly defined to have it be classified as a TS right now..A well defined COC is what we've been waiting on.
Quoting 2199. Tazmanian:



you are wrong about # 2

if you did not just look at the new tropic weather outlook

the nhc just said

recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight

wish means we could have a TS by 11 am
I would think more 5pm possibly since they said later today or tonight , which could be perceived as late afternoon, and as for tonight could be 8pm or 11pm, but you never know.
Quoting 2204. 19N81W:

this system looks more impressive than anything that has formed this year and no name........weird
I guess they have their reasons
Read the NHC,you will find the reason.
2219. MahFL
Excellent ventilation on almost all quadrants of 97L:



Good August Monday morning, fellow weathergeeks.

Coffee prying eyes open, but it looks like we have no Earl, no TD yet. Looks bigger for sure, convergence markedly improved. Appears to have slowed despite NHC's note of 20-25 mph fwd speed. It's in the details now or with recon's help; some flight data would be great. Nonetheless, there is improvement, better consolidation; naming should come later today. As it gets stronger, we'll see track and some intensity shifts--can't imagine that not happening considering the high OHC--massive heat!

No shear to speak of either. All the elements are lining up. Going to be interesting to see how Earl will push up against 1016mb and how strong the western periphery of the ridge will be as it tries to find a way more poleward; it may not if the ridge keeps it blocked. We wait, we see. Have a great day, all. :-)
Wow, a T3.0 for 97L from SAB.
Upgrade to a TS is highly likely today.
Quoting 2208. rmbjoe1954:



I think Grothar would call that a blobzilla.
Just to mention Grothar I'm happy,That's why my username.
2223. Ed22
Quoting 2203. ackee:

I must say I am shock that there will be no recon today wow base on NHC out look also seems no Earl until 5pm or 11pm so here Jamaica HATI Dr other areas should just prepared for tropical storm conditions by the time they decided to name the system tropical storm condition will likely be in these areas already
I'm really shock ed too, I'm in Jamaica here and I can tell you their stillness in the air right now. All we have to do is be prepared that all I can say...
Quoting 2207. GetReal:




The core of 97L continues to track due west... The core of the system may stay south of Jamaica... If we get RI to hurricane status later this afternoon, "Earl" may take a more W to WNW track and threaten the Cayman Islands IMO.



Wonder if the tip of Hispaniola impeding inflow is connected in timing to the new feeder band to the west.
2225. Grothar
August 15

This is the buoy to watch today, 97L will be passing due north of it this afternoon.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 52 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 19.4 kts
2227. SLU
Quoting 2201. ILwthrfan:



Looks like the HWRF did a solid job on this from it's run 24 hours ago. I think it had something very close to 50 knots just SW of Puerto Rico, not to say that it is at that currently, but structurally speaking it's looking very solid. Probably a depression at the leasts.

Hope Wundercayman is ready, might be a close shave for him. Who knows what potential this storm could reach with the fuel out in front. Also small core system could really wind up quickly.


A good test for the new HWRF model. So far it seems to be doing well.
Quoting 2225. Grothar:

August 15




Because thats near me it must be accurate. Trust that model 100%.
01/1145 UTC 16.1N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic

Good morning

One post before heading out. 97L wrapped up nicely overnight but still no closed low. That could happen at any time IMO.

For now the closest thing to a center appears to be on the SW side of the convection near 16 and 71. There are indications of inflow there.
I will check in later.
2231. ackee
Quoting 2221. Bobbyweather:

Wow, a T3.0 for 97L from SAB.
Upgrade to a TS is highly likely today.
what does translate to winds
Good Morning all.Good to see the blog alive and in excited mode. I this thing make a shift to WNW to GOM the same will exploded.
2233. SLU
01/1145 UTC 16.1N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 97L

Damn. Big tick for the HWRF.
Quoting 2228. VAbeachhurricanes:



Because thats near me it must be accurate. Trust that model 100%.
Yesterday, New Orleans, Today Boston.
Quoting 2219. MahFL:

Excellent ventilation on almost all quadrants of 97L:






The "fingers" extending from the upper level cloud shield are a known sign of strengthening in a tropical system. They are quite noticeable on the water vapor satellite.
97L well under way of be comeing a hurricane at this rate

with a T # of 3.0 all ready wish would put 97L winds at 45Kt or 50 mph storm 97L is all most ready too RI
2237. Grothar
I wonder if then NHC knows how lucky they are to have us. Let's see how this works. They provide the maps, they provide the graphics, they provide the atmospheric conditions, coordinates, models, and we criticize them. I guess that's pretty much how the world works.
Quoting 2231. ackee:



Well, according to the CI chart, it corresponds to 45 kt, or about 50 mph. But we should also see the data from TAFB to be confident in the intensity.
Quoting 2230. kmanislander:

Good morning

One post before heading out. 97L wrapped up nicely overnight but still no closed low. That could happen at any time IMO.

For now the closest thing to a center appears to be on the SW side of the convection near 16 and 71. There are indications of inflow there.
I will check in later.


how ever the NHC said in there tropic weather out look at 8am

recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight


so this time they did not say it lack a closed low they said has have be come better defined
Quoting 2237. Grothar:

I wonder if then NHC knows how lucky they are to have us. Let's see how this works. They provide the maps, they provide the graphics, they provide the atmospheric conditions, coordinates, models, and we criticize them. I guess that's pretty much how the world works.


They do what now?
Quoting 2213. Loduck:

Reeeeeally???

Not sure, i'm not part of the family of the other guy or anything, he just says he's serious and there are many signs that he's serious. He may be lying but i'm not sure. I'm assuming he's serious. Oh, and it isn't these 10$ drones, it's a 10,000$ prototype drone (offered for free beacuse they didn't need it) that was recently upgraded. It has a huge range until it fails, almost encompasses the entire Earth. Atleast that's what he says.
african dust looks thick just north of hispanola. it all seems to be moving floridas way.
i really hop recon gos out too 97L today i think they could find a 50 too 70 mph storm
Quoting 2237. Grothar:

I wonder if then NHC knows how lucky they are to have us. Let's see how this works. They provide the maps, they provide the graphics, they provide the atmospheric conditions, coordinates, models, and we criticize them. I guess that's pretty much how the world works.
Excellent,you are my man. Congratulations.
2245. ackee
Quoting 2233. SLU:

01/1145 UTC 16.1N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 97L

Damn. Big tick for the HWRF.
I think the HWRF did good job with 97L intensity
Quoting 2185. GetReal:
Yeah I noticed that caveat the NHC included... So they half heart-idly agreed that there is indeed a closed circulation. My question is why not the upgrade to a TD or more likely TS status????
No west winds.
Quoting 2193. Tazmanian:
oh really cares about the E PAC
I do. I was hoping we'd see Howard in July, but no dice, sadly. This is a matter of so close and yet so far....
Quoting 2196. ackee:
Base on the NHC out look there will be no recon for today I am shock, also seem they wait until 5pm today or 11pm tonight name the system wow areas like Jamaica Hati DR need just prepared by Time NHC decided name this thing EARL and issue watch and warnings TS condition will already be affecting these areas.
I notice JA already called the fishers back and I expect they'll make several strong statements about bad wx. Bigger concern IMO is whether the chance of RI is great enough to cause problems tomorrow. Otherwise the biggest threat from the system, flash flooding from heavy downpours, has already been addressed.
Quoting 2198. Ed22:

They're under their Ac at the NHC cocking up foot on table drinking Coffee, people lives are at risk and they don't have a interests in flying Reconnaissance aircraft into the developing system, what a world we are living in...
You know, we used to be a bit tougher than this in the Caribbean...... smh....
Waycool. Brian Osburn's Animation of the tropics May thru July.

Link
97L looking impressive.

There is a reason it has not been upgraded .. so far.

Any west winds found yet?

Maybe it is more developed aloft, and not so much at the surface.

If it does strengthen rapidly, is there any chance it will move more WNW?

Will a weaker system be forced into Central America?

August systems are usually fast movers, but how much will this system slow down ...
Rapid Scan starts soon


*Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East) Standard CONUS RSO

*Date/Time**Issued: *August 1, 2016 1213Z

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*August 1, 2016 1314Z ******

*Date/Time of Expected End:*August 3, 2016 1314Z ****

*Length of Event:*48 hours*
*

*Requester: *NHC

*Details/Specifics of Change:***Tropical storm monitoring in
Caribbean**


Visible Loop
2250. ackee
At rate 97L going it would be unfortunately that this system could be minimal Hurricane by time is past south of Jamaica with probably late warning issue then
Quoting 2201. ILwthrfan:



Looks like HWRF may have done a solid job on this from it's run 24 hours ago. I think it had something very close to 50 knots just SW of Puerto Rico, not to say that it is at that currently, but structurally speaking it's looking very solid. Looks like a depression at the least.

Hope WunderKidcayman is ready, might be a close shave for him. Who knows what potential this storm could reach with the fuel out in front. Also small core system could really wind up quickly.
We have quite a few bloggers here from JA, Caymans, and later Honduras and Belize who are in the forecast track of this storm....
97L is looking even better today than it did last night. Nice to see the NHC has bumped its odds up to 80/90. I bet it's named by the 5:00 advisory today.
Hopefully the center won't pass too far north of the buoy at Location: 14.923N 74.918W.
It appears the center of 97L is up around 16 degrees north latitude. But if there is a decent surface circulation it should be close enough to be picked up by that buoy.
2254. Grothar
A blob any mother would be proud of. Now let's watch the ridge closely for any breaks which might occur in the next few days. Either way, the Yucatan and Mexican and Texas coast should really be watching closely.



2255. Ed22
NHC just drop the Bomb on us "LOL".
Quoting 2205. 19N81W:

on another note no new blog with this action?......
Probably going to wait for 11 a.m. to see if it gets upgraded.
Quoting 2253. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully the center won't pass too far north of the buoy at Location: 14.923N 74.918W.
It appears the center of 97L is up around 16 degrees north latitude. But if there is a decent surface circulation it should be close enough to be picked up by that buoy.



you are way off on 14.9 N and 74W


i would follow this has you are right on it being at 16.1N 70W

01/1145 UTC 16.1N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic
It is starting to ventilate very well now
Still a disturbance according to ATCF data:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 011244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC MON AUG 1 2016

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972016) 20160801 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160801 1200 160802 0000 160802 1200 160803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 71.7W 17.0N 75.9W 17.8N 80.0W 18.2N 83.6W
BAMD 15.8N 71.7W 16.5N 75.3W 17.1N 78.5W 17.6N 81.2W
BAMM 15.8N 71.7W 16.4N 75.7W 16.7N 79.4W 16.8N 82.5W
LBAR 15.8N 71.7W 16.5N 75.7W 17.1N 79.4W 17.7N 83.0W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 51KTS 55KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 51KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160803 1200 160804 1200 160805 1200 160806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 86.9W 17.5N 92.0W 17.0N 95.1W 17.3N 96.7W
BAMD 18.0N 83.5W 19.0N 88.1W 19.8N 92.5W 20.3N 96.6W
BAMM 16.6N 85.2W 16.6N 89.8W 17.0N 93.2W 17.7N 96.2W
LBAR 18.3N 86.1W 20.0N 91.4W 19.1N 93.0W 19.1N 96.0W
SHIP 58KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 58KTS 41KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 71.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 62.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 70NM

$$
NNNN

However, this could change in the coming hours. Let's stay tuned.
2260. Grothar
Warm SST's

Quoting 2208. rmbjoe1954:



I think Grothar would call that a blobzilla until it gets named.
We're already at Blobcon2.......
the way thing are going with 97L with winds all ready at 50 mph and when recon gos out they could even find stronger winds


look for tropic storm watchs and hurricane watch too go up today in a vary short order
2263. Uragani
Quoting 2240. VAbeachhurricanes:



They do what now?

Probably meant: .. Info about atm condition.
WTNT21 KNGU 011000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 67.4W TO 14.9N 75.8W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
WINDS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM TODAY OR TONIGHT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021000Z.//
Are there any potential steering patterns that could occur that would allow 97L to turn further North on the Texas coastline? If so, what would have to happen for that? I'm trying to educate myself on these systems. Thanks!
2266. Grothar
Quoting 2240. VAbeachhurricanes:



They do what now?


It's 9AM. If you want John Steinbeck, go to the library :)
Quoting 2254. Grothar:

A blob any mother would be proud of. Now let's watch the ridge closely for any breaks which might occur in the next few days. Either way, the Yucatan and Mexican and Texas coast should really be watching closely.




I love it,at last a big and nice blob.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311448
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN



Quoting 2254. Grothar:

A blob any mother would be proud of. Now let's watch the ridge closely for any breaks which might occur in the next few days. Either way, the Yucatan and Mexican and Texas coast should really be watching closely.






Nice shot showing the "fingers" extending from the upper cloud shield.
Quoting 2268. Chicklit:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 311448
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN







thats old waiting on the new info and see if they go out today and not tusday
Quoting 2210. 19N81W:

I am convinced being too dry is worse than being too wet.........
that being said one can cause damage......still though we all need rain and water it makes us who we are....

June: .93 inches
July: 1.22 inches
so a grand total of 2.15 inches for the summer so far, average is 6.70. May was also dry so Rochester is down about 5 inches on the year.
2272. Ed22
Quoting 2235. Sfloridacat5:



The "fingers" extending from the upper level cloud shield are a known sign of strengthening in a tropical system. They are quite noticeable on the water vapor satellite.

Strengthening tropical storm Earl my best guess. Everything with this system is excellent...
Well, no one here asked them to...lol

Quoting 2237. Grothar:

I wonder if then NHC knows how lucky they are to have us. Let's see how this works. They provide the maps, they provide the graphics, they provide the atmospheric conditions, coordinates, models, and we criticize them. I guess that's pretty much how the world works.
the 2 pm troic weather out look could vary well seal the deal for 97L and upgrade it


am all really hoping we get a recon in there today
Still really no spin in the low level clouds, I guess a vortmax looks around 73W 15.5N maybe?



Will be interesting to see how it handles the subsidence off the backside of Hispaniola without much low level support.
Hello I'm here gearing up

I suspect 97L will be named earl hopefully before this evening before the sun sets

I'm expecting tropical storm warnings later for Jamaica and Cayman Islands

I'm still expect storm to slow down
Quoting 2233. SLU:

01/1145 UTC 16.1N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 97L

Damn. Big tick for the HWRF.
Did you just swear on the blog??????
That must be so impressive accuracy going on there.....
Today's going to be very interesting, very interesting indeed.....
2278. Xulonn
Here's the 0700 Nullschool surface wind map of Invest 97L. Would one of you people who is smarter than the pros at NWS/NHC please point out the closed circulation that would make this strong tropical wave a tropical depression or storm?

Quoting 2275. VAbeachhurricanes:

Still really no spin in the low level clouds, I guess a vortmax looks around 73W 15.5N maybe?



Will be interesting to see how it handles the subsidence off the backside of Hispaniola without much low level support.


why not just read this


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight
as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


i would go by what the NHC says
Quoting 2278. Xulonn:

Here's the 0700 Nullschool surface wind map of Invest 97L. Would one of you people who is smarter than the pros at NWS/NHC please point out the closed circulation that would make this strong tropical wave a tropical depression or storm?




I'm more curious about the UFO!!!!
tampico better be ready. 97 is going to follow gilberts foot prints
Quoting 2279. Tazmanian:



why not just read this


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL


Better than really crappy can still be crap.
2283. Xulonn
I appreciate the comments of those who go by accepted definitions of invests, waves and storms - lots of smart weather people here. I'm not being snarky in my above comment about those of you who understand the science and follow rules and guidelines for weather system classification.
Currently that seems unlikely (and I stress currently). There is a very strong ridge in place to the north of the storm. It acts like a wall not allowing the storm to move northward, only westward. However, there is always the possibility of a weakness developing in the "wall." The atmosphere is dynamic. Things change. The slower and larger this system becomes, the more opportunity a significant change in steering could occur.

Quoting 2265. Bradys24:

Are there any potential steering patterns that could occur that would allow 97L to turn further North on the Texas coastline? If so, what would have to happen for that? I'm trying to educate myself on these systems. Thanks!
2285. Drakoen
Quoting 2253. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully the center won't pass too far north of the buoy at Location: 14.923N 74.918W.
It appears the center of 97L is up around 16 degrees north latitude. But if there is a decent surface circulation it should be close enough to be picked up by that buoy.


This will be key.
Quoting 2253. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully the center won't pass too far north of the buoy at Location: 14.923N 74.918W.
It appears the center of 97L is up around 16 degrees north latitude. But if there is a decent surface circulation it should be close enough to be picked up by that buoy.


That buoy currently has rising pressure and ENE winds, not great.
2287. Xulonn
Quoting 2280. VAbeachhurricanes:


I'm more curious about the UFO!!!!
Oops! I forgot to delete it. It's the craft I use to personally examine tropical weather systems. It's supposed to be a secret.


(Actually, my cursor got in the way of the new online recording method I used to turn streaming video into an animated GIF.)
Quoting 2286. VAbeachhurricanes:



That buoy currently has rising pressure and ENE winds, not great.
Should have SW winds because it is SE of the "circulation".
However, over the next 6 hours it gets into very warm waters, so it could escalate quickly.
Quoting 2146. Neapolitan:

Wow, that's amazing! Your website/hurricane center has a drone capable of flying mid-level (10,000 ft) storm recon with multiple passes, possibly for hours, and all without being chewed up and spat out by thunderstorms? Who manufactured the drone? What model is it? Is it autonomous, or guided by hand? What's the battery life on the aircraft? What's the UAV service ceiling? What are you using for weather instrumentation? How are you broadcasting/storing telemetry data? Can you share with us a picture of the aircraft, and/or a link to your website? TIA...
Good morning, Snidely. Did the maid shrink your briefs?
;)
Morning, I see 97L still looks more impressive than its official status.

Quoting 2237. Grothar:

I wonder if then NHC knows how lucky they are to have us. Let's see how this works. They provide the maps, they provide the graphics, they provide the atmospheric conditions, coordinates, models, and we criticize them. I guess that's pretty much how the world works.


That's how I feel about my friend and the NFL draft. When they're on the phones they're really just talking to him.
2292. SLU


Quoting 2272. Ed22:

Strengthening tropical storm Earl my best guess. Everything with this system is excellent...

Still no closed circulation so no Earl yet.
Steering 700-850 layer 0700 cdt

image credit: Univ of Wisconsin, CIMMS
2295. Grothar
I am not sure, and it is my opinion only, but I believe the NHC may skip depression status and go directly to TS status on the next advisory. Even some of the models are hinting a RI of the system to a near-strong hurricane while still in the Caribbean.


Credit to Clark Evans for the graphics



2296. Walshy
do not waste your money on tax free weekend hurricane supplies in Virginia coming up...just say thanks to the east coast ridge.
its jerrys birthday! any sign of floodman?
2298. beell
With a continuation of a fast (albeit, slower than before), trade wind (lower level) flow-relative to the mid-levels, 97L suffering from a bit of a decoupling. It is out running its middle.


Mornin' all. Another hot one in store for Lantana. 70% chance of rain tomorrow...




Dexter in the Old House parking lot waiting for me to throw a baby coconut (they bounce like a super-ball).
Have a great day!
This makes sense.



This doesn't. Unless the forecast keeps the system weak. A stronger storm would move more poleward in this environment.

Am going too follow the NHC tropic weather out look has it seems like they no what they are talking about and they have a better handle on 97L then we do talking about it in the comments

Has it make it hard to follow everyone has ever one has there own different options on 97L so I will follow the tropic weather outlook then the commits on the blog the NHC are the real exports
If 97L slows down it could consolidate and stack proper. Until that slow down occurs we have a disorganized impressive blob.
Quoting 2289. Barefootontherocks:

Good morning, Snidely. Did the maid shrink your briefs?
;)
While I do appreciate your concern about my undergarments, I don't have as much time to sit around in my jammies watching cartoons as others obviously do, so I had to look up who 'Snidely' is. Clever!
2304. SLU
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
2305. beell
Quoting 2296. Walshy:

do not waste your money on tax free weekend hurricane supplies in Virginia coming up...just say thanks to the east coast ridge.


Walshy, if you are going to continue the trolling, at least get your synoptics right. The ridge is centered over the ARKLATEX.

Notice no one is commenting about the "caribbean graveyard" for storms. Will this not have some impact on this invest?
Quoting 2288. Methurricanes:

Should have SW winds because it is SE of the "circulation".


I don't think the system is close enough yet for that buoy
Quoting 2306. cheeksdr:

Notice no one is commenting about the "caribbean graveyard" for storms. Will this not have some impact on this invest?


It's basically through most of it, and it has impacted it, if it was moving slower it most likely would have a closed low level circulation by now.
At this rate, lol, 97L could be a 50-60 mph TS before it finally closes off.
2311. Grothar
BLOBCON: 3 (DISCLAIMER: THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL OR SERIOUS)


No circulation, may never be anything but a strong tropical wave with 40-50 mph winds. We may all be wasting our time watching this. If it follows those models going into southern Yucatan it may never even make the GOM, if it does it barely gets into BOC. Maybe waste of time watching. lol
Quoting 2303. Neapolitan:

While I do appreciate your concern about my undergarments, I don't have as much time to sit around in my jammies watching cartoons as others obviously do, so I had to look up who 'Snidely' is. Clever!
This blog is a laugh a minute .... no, actually it's more like a laugh every 30 seconds .... lol ...
We can all be armchair meteorologists and debate relentlessly on whether 97L needs to be classified. However, one thing that is virtually certain, 97L contains tropical storm force winds. Regardless of whether you think this is a cyclone or not, 97L presents an excellent argument/test case for the implementation of pre-reclassification advisory and warning products. I've heard NHC has been considering adding this in a couple of years.
2315. Uragani
Quoting 2295. Grothar:

I am not sure, and it is my opinion only, but I believe the NHC may skip depression status and go directly to TS status on the next advisory. Even some of the models are hinting a RI of the system to a near-strong hurricane while still in the Caribbean.


Credit to Clark Evans for the graphics





Do u "believe" that it will skip the TS status status.


The feathering effect on the periphery of 97L is not "ventilation" as some here seem to be claiming, it's a result of collapsing thunderstorms. That is not a sign of strengthening, it's actually a sign of weakening.
Quoting 2295. Grothar:

I am not sure, and it is my opinion only, but I believe the NHC may skip depression status and go directly to TS status on the next advisory. Even some of the models are hinting a RI of the system to a near-strong hurricane while still in the Caribbean.


Credit to Clark Evans for the graphics




I personally think they were only waiting for daylight to be able to look at sat imagery..... and I don't think they'll call it at 11 if that south side is still open.....
Mik.... the photos are great .... I gotta start following your WUdog again in WUphotos ....
Quoting 2314. typhoonty:

We can all be armchair meteorologists and debate relentlessly on whether 97L needs to be classified. However, one thing that is virtually certain, 97L contains tropical storm force winds. Regardless of whether you think this is a cyclone or not, 97L presents an excellent argument/test case for the implementation of pre-reclassification advisory and warning products. I've heard NHC has been considering adding this in a couple of years.


Any of the countries in the path of 9L can issue advisories if they wish. Yes, they receive information from the NHC, but the governing countries make the call.
Looks like it's growing mold.



Quoting 2303. Neapolitan:

While I do appreciate your concern about my undergarments, I don't have as much time to sit around in my jammies watching cartoons as others obviously do, so I had to look up who 'Snidely' is. Clever!


Didn't know either until I clicked. I don't think I've actually seen a Rocky & Bullwinkle cartoon. I don't even know which one is the moose.
Quoting 2306. cheeksdr:

Notice no one is commenting about the "caribbean graveyard" for storms. Will this not have some impact on this invest?
97L blew through the graveyard like it was a park .... of course, IMO part of the reason why it's not getting aligned is because of the graveyard effect, but that's just my opinion....
2322. Drakoen
Still think we're looking at a wave here, albeit one with a sharply inverted low level V signature. The low clouds to the west are coming from the ENE.
Quoting 2311. Grothar:

BLOBCON: 3 (DISCLAIMER: THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL OR SERIOUS)





You started your blobcon all wrong! Blobcon 1 would be the most severe, Blobcon 5 would be least severe.
2324. vis0
auto-toggles each fraME = 2HR JUMP.

image host

[having trouble WITH COMMENT BOX]
Quoting 2319. GeoffreyWPB:



Any of the countries in the path of 9L can issue advisories if they wish. Yes, they receive information from the NHC, but the governing countries make the call.


I know the government issues it, but I don't think the Hurricane Center displays these unless there is a TC present. I definitely could be wrong, though. I don't know the number of people from the public outside the US utilize the NHC over their home country's meteorology department.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h
There's a southward shift in the track of 97L.. looking less likely for any U.S. impacts if development occurs.

Been saying that and was attacked yesterday for it.Well this is coming from a expert's mouth and the NWS in Brownsville TX still see 97L (whatever it develops into by that time) staying south of the area.
2327. 62901IL
This does look quite Blobulous.


Quoting 2270. Tazmanian:




thats old waiting on the new info and see if they go out today and not tusday

Today is the succeeding day, isn't it?
Somebody mention cartoons?

"when in this world the headlines read
of those whose hearts are filled with greed
who rob and steal from those who need
to right this wrong with blinding speed
goes WUnderdog!"
Quoting 2326. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h
There's a southward shift in the track of 97L.. looking less likely for any U.S. impacts if development occurs.

Been saying that and was attacked yesterday for it.Well this is coming from a expert's mouth and the NWS in Brownsville TX still see 97L (whatever it develops into by that time) staying south of the area.


Last night's behavior from some of people on here was ridiculous. There's no denying a major ridge over southern states... smh
wow came back from the weekend and we are at 2300 comments. Welcome to the real Hurricane season folks!
2332. Thrawst
Quoting 2330. Bluestorm5:



Last night's behavior from some of people on here was ridiculous. There's no denying a major ridge over southern states... smh


Just wait until we have a bigger US threat. Lol.

Recon would be fantastic right about now.
2334. 62901IL
Quoting 2332. Thrawst:



Just wait until we have a bigger US threat. Lol.

Recon would be fantastic right about now.


Thrawst! I haven't seen you for a while! How you been?

I agree Recon would be fantastic right now.
2335. Walshy
looks like its going to weaken and then restrengthen post Jamaica. no upgrade until the western Caribbean.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2311. Grothar:

BLOBCON: 3 (DISCLAIMER: THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL OR SERIOUS)



Gotta say, this is looking quite captivating this morning .... pity about the missing / incomplete undergarb....
I wonder how long it will be before the NHC starts deploying drones for Recon missions.
97L, although looking more impressive since yesterday, appears to have some dry air to the west, on WV satellite imagery.

The island of Hispaniola just to the north might also affect the system, but it is still racing to the west.

Have any west winds been found to the south of the center yet? If so, we might have a T.S. soon!

Link

Up to 3.0
2341. beell
Quoting 2316. pipelines:



The feathering effect on the periphery of 97L is not "ventilation" as some here seem to be claiming, it's a result of collapsing thunderstorms. That is not a sign of strengthening, it's actually a sign of weakening.


LOL!
Try a pair of glasses and another cup of coffee!
:)
Quoting 2316. pipelines:



The feathering effect on the periphery of 97L is not "ventilation" as some here seem to be claiming, it's a result of collapsing thunderstorms. That is not a sign of strengthening, it's actually a sign of weakening.


You are wrong, it is not collapsing of thunderstorms, the core is fine there is no dry air present and the structure is improving as evidence by the NHC previous outlook at 8am. I think we have Earl at 11am.
2343. beell


Quoting 2326. washingtonian115:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h
There's a southward shift in the track of 97L.. looking less likely for any U.S. impacts if development occurs.

Been saying that and was attacked yesterday for it.Well this is coming from a expert's mouth and the NWS in Brownsville TX still see 97L (whatever it develops into by that time) staying south of the area. Actually that not what the NWS said this morning. Some of the models are showing a curvature before landfall. Its a long way out and anything can happen. I will agree lots of wishcasters lurking. We do need the rain here in South Texas but don't want loss life to get it.
2345. SSL1441
Quoting 2316. pipelines:



The feathering effect on the periphery of 97L is not "ventilation" as some here seem to be claiming, it's a result of collapsing thunderstorms. That is not a sign of strengthening, it's actually a sign of weakening.

I think the water vapor imagery may just disagree with you
Link
Quoting 2314. typhoonty:

We can all be armchair meteorologists and debate relentlessly on whether 97L needs to be classified. However, one thing that is virtually certain, 97L contains tropical storm force winds. Regardless of whether you think this is a cyclone or not, 97L presents an excellent argument/test case for the implementation of pre-reclassification advisory and warning products. I've heard NHC has been considering adding this in a couple of years.
Certainly the soon-to-be-impacted Caribbean interests should be issuing their own local products regarding heavy rain, flash flooding, and strong winds.
Quoting 2319. GeoffreyWPB:



Any of the countries in the path of 9L can issue advisories if they wish. Yes, they receive information from the NHC, but the governing countries make the call.
JA has already issued a notice calling fishermen back to port and advising residents, especially on the south side, to look out for flash flooding.
On a tangential note, it looks like beach picnics for Emancipation Day [aka August Monday] may be rained out in Nassau and other points in the Bahamas, due to outlying storms from 97L's circulation.

Impressive.
Quoting 2338. mikatnight:

I wonder how long it will be before the NHC starts deploying drones for Recon missions.
Drones are the way of the future. As perhaps you know, Oklahoma State University was instrumental in developing drone technology.

Quoting 2303. Neapolitan:

While I do appreciate your concern about my undergarments, I don't have as much time to sit around in my jammies watching cartoons as others obviously do, so I had to look up who 'Snidely' is. Clever!
Gosh, Neo. Sorry. I'd have thunk you were old enough to have watched Rocky the flying squirrel and his moose pal and the other great characters in that cartoon series that was so popular in the early 1960s. I guess you're not - old enough. I am, and this cartoon was my favorite back then! Cartoons, the good ones, can teach children about life, boost creative and critical thinking. Now please excuse me. I must go to Mangum and pick up some brick so I can build a stove pad. BTW (edit) pj's.
*NEW BLOG* *NEW BLOG*
Quoting 2343. beell:





Satellite imagery showing more spiral turning in the mid levels the versus the blob we got earlier. This indicates that some more feeder bands should soon form in a few hours which will mean a dominant close surface low is consolidating. Remember it's crossed 70W and the TCHP values are increasing substantially in the Central Caribbean rather than the Eastern "Dedzone" Caribbean. Also the official speed is a bit much, it does appear to be moving more than 20 mph on a slightly north of due west motion.
2353. Xulonn
Quoting 2320. win1gamegiantsplease:

Didn't know either until I clicked. I don't think I've actually seen a Rocky & Bullwinkle cartoon. I don't even know which one is the moose.

Rocket Raccoon vs. Rocky Raccoon vs. Rocket J. Squirrel: Let the truth be told...
The drone i was talking about a few hours ago has recorded 55 mph winds and 60 mph gusts in the northeastern corner of 97L, and a circulation is detected.
Quoting 2302. frank727:

If 97L slows down it could consolidate and stack proper. Until that slow down occurs we have a disorganized impressive blob.


What's a disorganized impressive blob? Is that some kind of oxymoron?
Getting scared now, it's starting to have that classical Hurricane look
2357. MahFL
TWC says recon is going into 97L today, but that is incorrect ?
2358. MahFL
Quoting 2306. cheeksdr:

Notice no one is commenting about the "caribbean graveyard" for storms. Will this not have some impact on this invest?


Most years, but not this year, we are in ENSO neutral conditions.
Quoting 2314. typhoonty:

We can all be armchair meteorologists and debate relentlessly on whether 97L needs to be classified. However, one thing that is virtually certain, 97L contains tropical storm force winds. Regardless of whether you think this is a cyclone or not, 97L presents an excellent argument/test case for the implementation of pre-reclassification advisory and warning products. I've heard NHC has been considering adding this in a couple of years.

The pre-classification advisories would certainly be welcomed in the Lesser Antilles Islands where often there is sense of under-preparation and complacency surrounding approaching non-designated tropical disturbances that unfortunately often intensify near or over the islands -subsequently deserving of Classification often to the surprise of many residents. This is currently a critical preparedness situation that need not be the case for islanders.

Blessings!
If you look on the visible satellite looks like a llc is starting to form? Anyone else think so?
look at all that dry air through out the atlantic