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97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2010

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nothing special with those waves out from Africa, maybe the normal rotation, as always.....

Quoting cat5hurricane:

How is that so? I was always under the impression that it occurs throughout the night...


Dmin is just before sunset and Dmax is just before dawn, in both instances wherever the system may be.
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.

Hi Kman,
We are definitely feeling the first hints of fall here in Florida. But because the SSTs are so high we may still see a few more before it's all said and done.
505. JLPR2
Quoting cat5hurricane:

How is that so? I was always under the impression that it occurs throughout the night...


Yes that is true, but the maximum effect of D-max is just before sunrise.
Quoting kmanislander:


Dmin is just before sunset and Dmax is just before dawn, in both instances wherever the system may be.

Gotcha! Thanks for clearing that up for me.
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.


Possibly...but I'm still holding on to the 20 I've "bandied about" since April (with a minimum 17 and as many as 22).
Quoting flsky:

Isn't is great! Haven't had the AC on for 3 days now!


Hey Sky! Glad to hear it. I wish we could've turned off the AC for that long. Still a little too humid. Our time is coming though. Been really nice outside.
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.

I was one of the 'bandies' LOL.
What, (in spite of the many favourable conditions) do you think caused the lower than forecast numbers?
And the lack of CONUS hits?

I dont mean "dry air" or "shear"..

What were the conditions that were NOT taken into consideration, that resulted in the lower numbers?

Any ideas?
Quoting Orcasystems:
I just got a new Crackberry... so I have been a bit busy. I found a new ring tone for it... SWMBO is having a small problem with it ;)

Ring Tone
Mine: Link
(she just adores this...)
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Kman,
We are definitely feeling the first hints of fall here in Florida. But because the SSTs are so high we may still see a few more before it's all said and done.


Hi there,

This season has proven that it takes more than high SST and TCHP to get systems going. Dry air and shear has ruled the day mostly. When you look across the SE CONUS and the GOM the dry air is very much in control now. Could be a sign that the season is close to over, subject to what the fronts do in the coming weeks. The SW Caribbean remains a hot spot.
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect that when the season is over the final number will be closer to my 14 than the 20 plus that was being bandied about by so many in May and June.
That was mine, too.
Quoting Grothar:
Is this an OOHH or an AHHHH?


depends....
Quoting pottery:

depends....


Ahhh would require depends?
517. JLPR2
Sure Cape Verde season is over, but African waves keep on feeding ITCZ.... excuse me, but after 3 days waiting for 97L, and looking at the same area, I was trying to look somewhere else.....
Quoting kmanislander:


CV season is over
The Caribbean has been a pressure cooker all season. If you get out unscathed this year, then you will be extremely lucky.
Thanks Orca, can't believe models are calling for a hurricane out of 97L now. I still put this at the most a strong 65 Mph tropical storm.
Pass Go, do not collect $200.00

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Thanks Orca, can't believe models are calling for a hurricane out of 97L now. I still put this at the most a strong 65 Mph tropical storm.


I am not to worried about 97L... I am a little concerned about the two following it... someone one this blog.. who is notorious for starting invests over his house... is going to do a double whammy.

He is going to call the season over... and open a new Bottle... can you spell doom?
524. JLPR2


I like fast updating images. :]
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ahhh would require depends?

Depends....
As StormJunkie and portlight assessed the situation in N. Carolina,,,we came across this elderly woman who can use a hand from us.

Presslord just got off the phone with this kind soul and she was in tears over hearing were gonna help her.

So I ask everyone to consider helping us help her.

We can change Lives for the better,,and thats what were gonna do here.

Cuz we can.


Dayle White is a widow from Jacksonville, NC, who lost about 60% of her belongings and her landlord is unsure when or if she'll be able to return to her home. Her renters' insurance (Nationwide) is denying her coverage due to lack of flood coverage. She is on a limited fixed income. She is in need of a place to live...as well as clothes and furniture. We want to help her get another apartment, as well as some clothing and furniture. She is particularly upset over the loss of her recliner chair, which was destroyed.

Please help as you can. And know that Ms. White will be grateful.

We are identifying others in need and will post their stories as things come into focus.


portlight.org


Quoting Chicklit:
The Caribbean has been a pressure cooker all season. If you get out unscathed this year, then you will be extremely lucky.


Interesting that with so much warm water nothing of real consequence has developed in the Caribbean. Of course, warm water isn't the only ingredient, but still...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am not to worried about 97L... I am a little concerned about the two following it... someone one this blog.. who is notorious for starting invests over his house... is going to do a double whammy.

He is going to call the season over... and open a new Bottle... can you spell doom?

heheheh
Hi Patrick,
Okay, you got me.
Will do this in the a.m.
Thanks,
J
Quoting Krycek1984:


Interesting that with so much warm water nothing of real consequence has developed in the Caribbean. Of course, warm water isn't the only ingredient, but still...

My point all day.....
What's up with that????
Quoting Krycek1984:


Interesting that with so much warm water nothing of real consequence has developed in the Caribbean. Of course, warm water isn't the only ingredient, but still...

That's why Kman says 'season closed' at 14 lol.
St. Marteen Radar

Link
Quoting Grothar:
Is this an OOHH or an AHHHH?




Grothar, I'll have to go with an Ahh. Comments removed seem a bit over the top. Guess I'll retreat. There's a new sheriff in town, and his name, is Reggie Hammond. Have a nice night all. Can't say hello to friends? Whatever. Admin: ???
I'm starting to really like this pretty blue color hugging the SE CONUS...

Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Patrick,
Okay, you got me.
Will do this in the a.m.
Thanks,
J


Thanx chicklit,,shes a fine woman and were gonna help her get her Chair Back and a lot more.
Quoting pottery:

I was one of the 'bandies' LOL.
What, (in spite of the many favourable conditions) do you think caused the lower than forecast numbers?
And the lack of CONUS hits?

I dont mean "dry air" or "shear"..

What were the conditions that were NOT taken into consideration, that resulted in the lower numbers?

Any ideas?


If you look at the tracks this season, the vast majority of storms recurved well East of the CONUS. The reason for this is clearly associated with the strong La Nina that developed and the train of troughs that paraded off the East coast one after the other.
Historically, neutral years see more storms track due West. La Nina see more storms recurve.

As for the lower numbers, well it is largely attributed to dry air and shear. The shear forced dry into many fledgling systems disrupting them in the formative stages and preventing several from developing. Those that did took forever to do so.

Consequently, I would summarise this season as being known for three key elements that prevented it from being the " mother of all seasons ".

1. La Nina
2. Dry air
3 Shear

One final note. Why the dry air ??

Remember the jet stream that got locked into the flow pattern that created the fires and record heat in Russia ?. It also created record heat across the CONUS.

That heat inland on the continents created very dry sinking air ( subsidence ) across the Atlantic which in turn suppressed the development of tropical systems. I think that the post season analysis will focus on this as a key element that was not foreseen.
Quoting Grothar:
Is this an OOHH or an AHHHH?


Who says you can't have the cake & eat it too...
Quoting sunlinepr:
St. Marteen Radar

Link

Nice radar link. Thank you
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Grothar, I'll have to go with an Ahh. Comments removed seem a bit over the top. Guess I'll retreat. There's a new sheriff in town, and his name, is Reggie Hammond. Have a nice night all. Can't say hello to friends? Whatever. Admin: ???

I am not seeing any removed comments....
?????
Finally!! Here it comes.... keep on moving....

good grief. tomorrow is another herculean day.
prayers that you get all the rain and sunshine you want...and not any more than you need!
goodnight.
RE: KMAN:
One final note. Why the dry air ??

Remember the jet stream that got locked into the flow pattern that created the fires and record heat in Russia ?. It also created record heat across the CONUS.

That heat inland on the continents created very dry sinking air ( subsidence ) across the Atlantic which in turn suppressed the development of tropical systems. I think that the post season analysis will focus on this as a key element that was not foreseen.


good point.
Quoting Patrap:


Thanx chicklit,,shes a fine woman and were gonna help her get her Chair Back and a lot more.

Yeah, that's just how we roll...
Quoting pottery:

I am not seeing any removed comments....
?????


Go back a page P. I've refreshed several times. Hope I'm wrong.
Quoting Chicklit:

Yeah, that's just how we roll...


U betcha my Lady.

Were screening a few more to Help as StormJunkie did a fine Job re conning for us up there over 2 Days.


SJ's portlight coverage of N. Carolina Gov. Perdue press Conference in the Flooded area.



Cool patrap. my sound doesn't work since i rearranged my office. don't know why i cannot figure out this, but just hasn't happened yet.
anyway gn.
546. Relix
97L rains are in bands, center south of St. Croix... falling pressures... organizing convection.. hmm... HMMMM.....
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am not to worried about 97L... I am a little concerned about the two following it... someone one this blog.. who is notorious for starting invests over his house... is going to do a double whammy.

He is going to call the season over... and open a new Bottle... can you spell doom?

D.O.O.M.
If you check my blog i'm expecting at least another 3 storms
Quoting kmanislander:


If you look at the tracks this season, the vast majority of storms recurved well East of the CONUS. The reason for this is clearly associated with the strong La Nina that developed and the train of troughs that paraded off the East coast one after the other.
Historically, neutral years see more storms track due West. La Nina see more storms recurve.

As for the lower numbers, well it is largely attributed to dry air and shear. The shear forced dry into many fledgling systems disrupting them in the formative stages and preventing several from developing. Those that did took forever to do so.

Consequently, I would summarise this season as being known for three key elements that prevented it from being the " mother of all seasons ".

1. La Nina
2. Dry air
3 Shear

One final note. Why the dry air ??

Remember the jet stream that got locked into the flow pattern that created the fires and record heat in Russia ?. It also created record heat across the CONUS.

That heat inland on the continents created very dry sinking air ( subsidence ) across the Atlantic which in turn suppressed the development of tropical systems. I think that the post season analysis will focus on this as a key element that was not foreseen.
Great points!
549. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
97L rains are in bands, center south of St. Croix... falling pressures... organizing convection.. hmm... HMMMM.....


yeah, but once again I'll bite my tongue unless something impressive shows up on radar.

----------------
Rather large 850mb vort
Quoting kmanislander:


If you look at the tracks this season, the vast majority of storms recurved well East of the CONUS. The reason for this is clearly associated with the strong La Nina that developed and the train of troughs that paraded off the East coast one after the other.
Historically, neutral years see more storms track due West. La Nina see more storms recurve.

As for the lower numbers, well it is largely attributed to dry air and shear. The shear forced dry into many fledgling systems disrupting them in the formative stages and preventing several from developing. Those that did took forever to do so.

Consequently, I would summarise this season as being known for three key elements that prevented it from being the " mother of all seasons ".

1. La Nina
2. Dry air
3 Shear

One final note. Why the dry air ??

Remember the jet stream that got locked into the flow pattern that created the fires and record heat in Russia ?. It also created record heat across the CONUS.

That heat inland on the continents created very dry sinking air ( subsidence ) across the Atlantic which in turn suppressed the development of tropical systems. I think that the post season analysis will focus on this as a key element that was not foreseen.

Many Thanks...
I have been trying to get to the bottom of this for a while.
You are the first to give it the attention it needs, as far as I can see.
Although Masters did a blog some time ago (during the Russia heatwave) that alluded to it, the overall conditions tended to confound the more localised ones.
Most interesting, and brings into sharp focus the relationship between Climate and Weather, in my op.
Nice...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

D.O.O.M.
If you check my blog i'm expecting at least another 3 storms


Since you have been a member for almost a whole day now.. I doubt I have seen it.
Conditions are changing: Where is the shear we had this morning around 22N, 45W??? It's gone.... No shear for blob behind 97L....
Im getting off,
Good night all
I'll have a new blog post in the morning
Quoting Chicklit:
Cool patrap. my sound doesn't work since i rearranged my office. don't know why i cannot figure out this, but just hasn't happened yet.
anyway gn.



G'night chicklit..Im heading up too.
I'm out for tonight as well. May be back tomorrow, depending on what happeans with 97L and the other area to the South of the DR.

Gnite all.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Since you have been a member for almost a whole day now.. I doubt I have seen it.

Actually i've been following since 2008 but, I just joined.
Hard to beleive no gulf coast strikes this year
558. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm out for tonight as well. May be back tomorrow, depending on what happeans with 97L and the other area to the South of the DR.

Gnite all.
Quoting Patrap:



G'night chicklit..Im heading up too.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Im getting off,
Good night all
I'll have a new blog post in the morning


Night!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Im getting off,
Good night all
I'll have a new blog post in the morning
g'nite man

Invest 97
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 17.5 64.5W — Movement: WSW
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.Moving wsw?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Since you have been a member for almost a whole day now.. I doubt I have seen it.

Very quick...
Quoting Gearsts:
Invest 97
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 17.5 64.5W — Movement: WSW
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.Moving wsw?

Where did you see WSW?
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm out for tonight as well. May be back tomorrow, depending on what happeans with 97L and the other area to the South of the DR.

Gnite all.

Have a good nite

Quoting pottery:

Very quick...


Especially when his blog points you right to another website and separate blog... he catches on quick.

Quoting RufusBaker:
Hard to beleive no gulf coast strikes this year
Gulf coast sure lucked out.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Especially when his blog points you right to another website and separate blog... he catches on quick.


AH!
567. Relix
Wouldn't surprise me to see a TCFA tomorrow at morning or midday.
568. JLPR2
Looking more and more interesting and arrg! And got to be sleeping before 2am :(

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Gulf coast sure lucked out.

Well, luck is sometimes needed in this Life.
But in terms of tropical storms, there is more to it than that.
Something caused the thing.....
In late May, NOAA predicted an "extremely active" season ranging from a low of 14-8-3 to a high of 23-14-7. In August they revised downward to between 14-8-4 and 20-12-6.

Meanwhile, Klotzbach & Gray at CSU originally called for between 11-6-3 to 16-8-5; that was revised in June to 18-10-5.

In mid-June, the UK Met Office called for 20 storms, with a 70% chance of between 13 and 27, and a 70% chance of an ACE index between 90 to (a ludicrously high) 319.

So: we're at, obviously, 14-7-5, with an ACE of 131. That means we've reached the low end of the NOAA forecast for named storms, we're just one hurricane away from reaching their low end prediction for hurricanes, and we've almost doubled the minimum number of intense hurricanes they called for. It also means we've reached the low end of the CSU forecasts for named storms and hurricanes, and we've reached their predicted number of major storms. And, finally, it also means we've exceeded the low end of the UK Met prediction for both storms and ACE.

Ther bottom line: we're here at the start of October having already fallen in line with at least the low end of most of the pre-season predictions, despite the late start to anything more than minimal activity. There are nearly two months left in the regular season, there are still very-high SSTs across most of the MDR, and there are currently two AOIs, one looking healthier and healthier.

And yet I keep reading over and over here how the pre-season forecasts were wrong. How so? I never saw anyone reputable claim 2010 would be the Mother Of All Seasons (that title will likely long belong to 2005); I merely saw predictions of a very active to hyperactive season. Well, we're already at very active, and there's plenty of time left to reach hyperactive. Doing a post-mortem at this point seems about eight weeks premature...
Quoting pottery:

Well, luck is sometimes needed in this Life.
But in terms of tropical storms, there is more to it than that.
Something caused the thing.....
Yep...it's never just one factor.
562.Is on this page saying is moving wsw.
573. JLPR2
I hadn't seen this, 12z EURO O_O
48hrs


24hrs Possible 1006mb TD in the East coast of PR


Jeez, the EURO is amazing, it developed the low that didn't even exist then.
Cape Verde season may be over... but African waves are still on the way.... What about that new wave spinnin
at 8N, 30W?? Seems like we will have to take her in consideration...

12z EURO link please...
Quoting Dakster:
Pottery - About the only thing I can say that is true about this blog 100% of the time is that there isn't a consensus....

Two wunderbloggers, three opinions.


On average, three out of two people have trouble with fractions.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Cape Verde season may be over... but African waves are still on the way.... What about that new wave spinnin
at 8N, 30W?? Seems like we will have to take her in consideration...


It sure does look a bit ominous
578. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
12z EURO link please...


The one in the bottom

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
In late May, NOAA predicted an "extremely active" season ranging from a low of 14-8-3 to a high of 23-14-7. In August they revised downward to between 14-8-4 and 20-12-6.

Meanwhile, Klotzbach & Gray at CSU originally called for between 11-6-3 to 16-8-5; that was revised in June to 18-10-5.

In mid-June, the UK Met Office called for 20 storms, with a 70% chance of between 13 and 27, and a 70% chance of an ACE index between 90 to (a ludicrously high) 319.

So: we're at, obviously, 14-7-5, with an ACE of 131. That means we've reached the low end of the NOAA forecast for named storms, we're just one hurricane away from reaching their low end prediction for hurricanes, and we've almost doubled the minimum number of intense hurricanes they called for. It also means we've reached the low end of the CSU forecasts for named storms and hurricanes, and we've reached their predicted number of major storms. And, finally, it also means we've exceeded the low end of the UK Met prediction for both storms and ACE.

Ther bottom line: we're here at the start of October having already fallen in line with at least the low end of most of the pre-season predictions, despite the late start to anything more than minimal activity. There are nearly two months left in the regular season, there are still very-high SSTs across most of the MDR, and there are currently two AOIs, one looking healthier and healthier.

And yet I keep reading over and over here how the pre-season forecasts were wrong. How so? I never saw anyone reputable claim 2010 would be the Mother Of All Seasons (that title will likely long belong to 2005); I merely saw predictions of a very active to hyperactive season. Well, we're already at very active, and there's plenty of time left to reach hyperactive. Doing a post-mortem at this point seems about eight weeks premature...


Would pouring sugar into the gulf stream make for a hyperactive season? I think so...
I'm off. My Dolphins have let me down again--go special teams!--and I have an early meeting. Before I go, though, here's a little something for the site's winter lovers:

CAZ519-050715-
/O.CON.KVEF.WW.Y.0017.101005T0500Z-101005T1800Z/
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WHITNEY PORTAL
413 PM PDT MON OCT 4 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500 FEET REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL OCCUR ON THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA TODAY THEN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN AT ELEVATIONS DOWN
TO 8500 FEET LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW LEVEL: SNOW LEVELS WILL BE OBSERVED ABOVE 10000 FEET
TODAY AND WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET TONIGHT...BUT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ABOVE 8500
FEET.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS
EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 8500 FEET.

* WINDS: PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE CREST.

* IMPACTS: SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL IMPACT ROADS AND CAMPGROUNDS
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITY OF ASPENDELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Quoting JLPR2:
Looking more and more interesting and arrg! And got to be sleeping before 2am :(

you thinks is going to be a normal day for us here in PR ?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Cape Verde season may be over... but African waves are still on the way.... What about that new wave spinnin
at 8N, 30W?? Seems like we will have to take her in consideration...


Hmmm!
Still lots of stuff going on out there.
Neopolitan might be correct. A couple more named systems will change the way things are, big time....
tomorrow? no
584. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:
you thinks is going to be a normal day for us here in PR ?


Well something would have to change dramatically, which is possible, but I don't want to be sleepy if it doesn't.
585. JLPR2
Sustained 30mph winds int he buoy to the south of 97L

Tue, 05 Oct 2010 02:50:00 UTC
Winds: SW (220) at 25.3 kt

Quoting kmanislander:


If you look at the tracks this season, the vast majority of storms recurved well East of the CONUS. The reason for this is clearly associated with the strong La Nina that developed and the train of troughs that paraded off the East coast one after the other.
Historically, neutral years see more storms track due West. La Nina see more storms recurve.

As for the lower numbers, well it is largely attributed to dry air and shear. The shear forced dry into many fledgling systems disrupting them in the formative stages and preventing several from developing. Those that did took forever to do so.

Consequently, I would summarise this season as being known for three key elements that prevented it from being the " mother of all seasons ".

1. La Nina
2. Dry air
3 Shear

One final note. Why the dry air ??

Remember the jet stream that got locked into the flow pattern that created the fires and record heat in Russia ?. It also created record heat across the CONUS.

That heat inland on the continents created very dry sinking air ( subsidence ) across the Atlantic which in turn suppressed the development of tropical systems. I think that the post season analysis will focus on this as a key element that was not foreseen.


Excellent analysis.... Soon we will add another variable, that will slow down the season; Cold fronts with cooler sea temps...
Quoting JLPR2:
I hadn't seen this, 12z EURO O_O
48hrs


24hrs Possible 1006mb TD in the East coast of PR


Jeez, the EURO is amazing, it developed the low that didn't even exist then.



Hey Bro the rain is pouring down now! Bayamon
588. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:
Sustained 30mph winds int he buoy to the south of 97L

Tue, 05 Oct 2010 02:50:00 UTC
Winds: SW (220) at 25.3 kt


Intersting.

Tomorrow's gonna be a true mess at UPR JLPR =P
589. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:



Hey Bro the rain is pouring down now! Bayamon


Pero en Bayamon siempre llueve :P LOL!

Quiet here in Carolina
590. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


Intersting.

Tomorrow's gonna be a true mess at UPR JLPR =P


At least all of my classes are in the same building, ha!
Take that nature! XD LOL!
Quoting Grothar:
Is this an OOHH or an AHHHH?



More like an ahhhhhh
Quoting JLPR2:


Pero en Bayamon siempre llueve :P LOL!

Quiet here in Carolina
yes is true but yesterday few rains and a lots of humidity
OK, WTF is that "thing" to the east of 97L... the evil face???




594. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:


At least all of my classes are in the same building, ha!
Take that nature! XD LOL!


Lol I have a Music class (close to COPU) then gotta walk all the way to get something to eat and the center and then Naturales. It. Will. Be. Hellish! XD!
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, WTF is that "thing" to the east of 97L... the evil face???





Looks like one of Snake's cats...
596. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


Lol I have a Music class (close to COPU) then gotta walk all the way to get something to eat and the center and then Naturales. It. Will. Be. Hellish! XD!


Just two words for you: Extra Shoes XD LOL!
Evening All.

Xtrap has 97L Craaaaawwwwwllling N?

Quoting pottery:

Looks like one of Snake's cats...
look like Casper
599. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Evening All.

Xtrap has 97L Craaaaawwwwwllling N?



The other way, south xD
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, WTF is that "thing" to the east of 97L... the evil face???






I'll take your evil face and up you one giant ULL.
Quoting JLPR2:


The other way, south xD


Arrows are pointing N on the SFWMD site.
603. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Arrows are pointing N on the SFWMD site.


Then it was initialized incorrectly since it ain't that far south.
604. Relix
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Arrows are pointing N on the SFWMD site.

Its basically stationary and drifting
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, WTF is that "thing" to the east of 97L... the evil face???






LOL

wat
606. JLPR2
getting rounder


Still needs to ditch the tail to the W
Either way it's going, sure looks to be getting it's tropical groove on tonight @ 17.1w 63.1n
UMM could be 16.9 though.
609. JLPR2
St. Croix is going to get pounded soon.

Nope

17.1N 63.2W
611. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Nope

17.1N 63.2W


Somewhere in that vicinity XD
What a great time to look, lol. Next frame of the Sat just updated and it's almost completely covered...
Looks to be taking in a bit of shear ATM though.


However, not for long.

For those who don't know this webpage, Interesting; Climatology
of Caribbean Hurricanes
Link
Click any city and you can see a list of all hurricanes that have hit.....

Also Climatology
of Caribbean Hurricanes

Link

The main page is the Caribbean Hurricane Network

Link


Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Looks to be taking in a bit of shear ATM though.


However, not for long.



Upper low moving NW. Shear should lessen as a result.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Upper low moving NW. Shear should lessen as a result.


Agree there.

97L is showing the game face tonight, IMO.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I just got a new Crackberry... so I have been a bit busy. I found a new ring tone for it... SWMBO is having a small problem with it ;)

Ring Tone


And you are still alive?

Quoting sunlinepr:
For those who don't know this webpage, Interesting; Climatology
of Caribbean Hurricanes
Link
Click any city and you can see a list of all hurricanes that have hit.....

Also Climatology
of Caribbean Hurricanes

Link

The main page is the Caribbean Hurricane Network

Link




Thanks a bunch. I bookmarked that.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Agree there.

97L is showing the game face tonight, IMO.


Still needs some work on the western side, but yes. I agree. I suspect we'll see Otto from this in the next two days.
Invest97L : NHC-ATCF
4Oct 12amGMT - - 17.6n62.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n63.9w
4Oct 06amGMT - - 17.6n64.1w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.8n65.4w
4Oct 12pmGMT - - 17.6n64.5w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.7n65.4w
4Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.6n64.8w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF *17.7n65.8w
5Oct 12amGMT - - 17.5n64.5w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers

Copy&paste 17.6n62.8w-17.6n64.1w, 17.6n64.1w-17.6n64.5w, 17.6n64.5w-17.6n64.8w, 17.6n64.8w-17.5n64.5w, bqn, ngd, gbj into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours.
621. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Still needs some work on the western side, but yes. I agree. I suspect we'll see Otto from this in the next two days.


So in your opinion on a scale of 1-10 how will my day be tomorrow?
Weather-wise of course XD
Quoting Dakster:


And you are still alive?



You know me... that halo keeps me S&I

Thats ok, for the daughter/S in law and Grandson... I used the ring tone from "the Good the Bad and the Ugly" :)

The Grandson is the the good.. the other two are a toss up :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Still needs some work on the western side, but yes. I agree. I suspect we'll see Otto from this in the next two days.


Another area I find kinda interesting tonight, is the SW Bahama's.
624. JLPR2


Pressure starting fall, with winds in the 25-26mph range.
Quoting JLPR2:
St. Croix is going to get pounded soon.

que crees?
626. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:
que crees?


Still needs to work quite a bit in the west side, but the east side is looking good.
Quoting Dakster:


And you are still alive?

thank for the ringtone i installed
Man, I don't know, but it seems like the GOM is sleeping while East of 75W is flaring up....
We should be seeing this patern


Not this one....

Morning/Evening Night Shift....Coffee is ready!!
The outflow that was creating the shear that was fencing out PR, just to the NNW of Haiti has been broken....
Seems like now 97L will have free access to move
No need to worry,, CV season is OVER....

NHC/TAFB Experimental Marine Grid on Oct 9, click the picture for the full run. Shows the eastern trough gone and a storm brewing in the SW Caribb.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Marine Grid on Oct 9, click the picture for the full run. Shows the eastern trough gone and a storm brewing in the SW Caribb.



Link OK, bookmarked
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Marine Grid on Oct 9, click the picture for the full run. Shows the eastern trough gone and a storm brewing in the SW Caribb.




You can also plot a pressure animation..
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

Predicted Wave hgt for October 8



Rainy night in St Martin island and surroundings
Ok I have a VERY important question to ask you all. Whats the forecast for Saturday Night in Miami for FSU vs Miami. I think this week most of us care about that more than anything else. Thanks. GO NOLES !
Kinda sad to see the trough go, it's been really nice here in SEFL.
Quoting mara0921:
Ok I have a VERY important question to ask you all. Whats the forecast for Saturday Night in Miami for FSU vs Miami. I think this week most of us care about that more than anything else. Thanks. GO NOLES !


From the looks of it, absolutely perfect.
Quoting mara0921:
Ok I have a VERY important question to ask you all. Whats the forecast for Saturday Night in Miami for FSU vs Miami. I think this week most of us care about that more than anything else. Thanks. GO NOLES !


Very good weather......which is great....FSU not do so well in rain.....specially against those Canes!!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


From the looks of it, absolutely perfect.


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL
POSS.T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/97L
MARK
17.48N/64.36W
Quoting mara0921:


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL


+100
649. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed but I wanted to point out before I go that the winds in St. Croix went from 2-5mph to 20mph with gusts 22mph and the pressure is down to 1006mb, 97L is deepening

20 mph / 32.2 km/h / 8.9 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa (Falling)

Also, buoy to the S of 97L
Quoting mara0921:


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL


Could get interesting after the game though. Models starting to feel out an area in the SW or Central Caribb. With the trough heading off the east coast, it could be left to fester and cause some trouble if in the SW.
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off to bed but I wanted to point out before I go that the winds in St. Croix went from 2-5mph to 20mph with gusts 22mph and the pressure is down to 1006mb, 97L is deepening

20 mph / 32.2 km/h / 8.9 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa (Falling)


Heading to bed myself and agree, 97L is gaining steam.
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off to bed but I wanted to point out before I go that the winds in St. Croix went from 2-5mph to 20mph with gusts 22mph and the pressure is down to 1006mb, 97L is deepening

20 mph / 32.2 km/h / 8.9 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph / 35.4 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa (Falling)


If it moves over us, it will wake us early in the morning, goodnite all
Wow we have very strong SW gusts right now in St Martin!
Looks like a TS
UP TO 50 PERCENT ON 97L
Blog Update 12:55AM CDT 10-5-2010 on 97l? NC flooding and North Texas weather, please stop by and take a look, thanks!!
Link
156

ABNT20 KNHC 050536

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS

INCREASED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR

WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT

MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF

DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO

RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.



AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 1000

MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Wow....This is exciting!!
florida could be in big trouble.
662. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WED THROUGH FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL
BE OVER THE NW GULF SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL THEN SWEEP
SE ACROSS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN
DECREASE OF SAT.
I normally say good morning, everyone, but it looks like it's good morning, Ike today, so Morning, Ike!

It's 52 degrees here, yet forty-five minutes away it's 39 degrees?
664. IKE
Morning. 49.3 outside...right now.
With the flooding in so many places, we're sitting here with a statewide burn ban. Yesterday we were in a severe weather alert, a warning and then a watch for fire due to winds that could turn a small fire into a monster fire. And no forecasted rain to be seen yet.
TWC is saying we should see Otto around next week and a possibility of Paula after that.
667. IKE
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....

Sorry, they were talking about the caribbean. Right now I'd take a TS just for the rain it would bring.
Good grief, where is everyone? Nobody posting model runs anymore? Oh well, guess they have good reason as the season has come to a quick close. Weird one at that. US not even threatened by a cane. Latest gfs threatens south Florida next week with a hurricane (yeah right)
670. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Sorry, they were talking about the caribbean. Right now I'd take a TS just for the rain it would bring.


I don't see anything bringing rain for at least the next 7-10 days.
But I think Louisiana is out of the picture for any TS's at this point. Guess we need something to come down out of Canada for the needed rain. Or from wherever it wants to come from...
Quoting IKE:


I don't see anything bringing rain for at least the next 7-10 days.


That's what I'm afraid of. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
673. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
HAS ENCOMPASSED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EAST COAST. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE
WEEKEND...THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARM TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
DROP OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED STARTING TUE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP OUT OF CANADA AND
RESUME THE NICE WX BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ONCE IT SENDS A COLD
FRONT THOUGH.

Quoting mara0921:


Yeah it seems like it. I was just checking if some wave or rain would threaten. We've been quite lucky in Florida this year. We've had one direct landfall ( Bonnie ) which was about as bad as a moderate afternoon thunderstorm and Nicole which ironically fell apart as soon as it was born. Sorta like what I see happening the the Hurricane football team Saturday too. Fizzle out before it even starts LOL
We've been lucky in the panhandle for a few years.
Quoting IKE:
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....

Good morning everyone. Anything going on with the blob south of Hispaniola ?
look at those pouchies lined up near the e. carib. going to be a party
Quoting WeatherMum:
We've been lucky in the panhandle for a few years.
you had more than your share of bad ones before that
Good Morning...
Whoa, latest gfs doesn't look good for Florida. Take it with a grain of salt though..
680. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. Anything going on with the blob south of Hispaniola ?


Not that I've read.
97l is now south of Vieques.The low with convection blowing on top.
Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT
HAS ENCOMPASSED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN A SLOW
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EAST COAST. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE
WEEKEND...THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME WARM TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
DROP OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED STARTING TUE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP OUT OF CANADA AND
RESUME THE NICE WX BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ONCE IT SENDS A COLD
FRONT THOUGH.



Hope it brings some rain! But I am loving the cooler weather. And when my son gets home from Germany in the next week, he'll be able to catch up on the yard work. He's coming from temps in the 30s, so will really enjoy the 70s and 80s.
Good morning those who just came in.
Quoting IKE:


Not that I've read.
Thanks. I know the past several days convection in that area has been very persistent. I wonder if that will be what jump starts the development in the sw Caribbean they are predicting.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning those who just came in.
Good morning.
Quoting IKE:
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....



Good morning IKE!! Hope you right about northern GOMEX!!
Off to my classroom, being observed today, so need to be on my toes. Kids better behave themselves! Have a great Tuesday everyone!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. I know the past several days convection in that area has been very persistent. I wonder if that will be what jump starts the development in the sw Caribbean they are predicting.


Yeah, That's what it looks like. Gfs locks on it and has the last several runs
Good Morning - fast pass through - having 'computer troubs this week - Sorry to read about your FIRE hazard Aislinn - let's hope you all get some rain to quench that .... off to grab an early morning session b/4 work -- winds make for some waves yesterday -- very choppy -- might be glassy this AM -- got to hope.

Good day to all - might be MIA for a bit till this darn box gets fixed
That area south of Hispaniola is interesting ...





Good morning all,

693. Relix
Darnit, looks awful again =P
Quoting Relix:
Darnit, looks awful again =P

Yeah...I think even 50% is too generous.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
That area south of Hispaniola is interesting ...





Pressure dropped and looks to have a spin to it.
Quoting IKE:
I haven't seen anything on any model run showing anything tropically, affecting the northern GOM for at least the next 10 days...and longer.

Odds are it's finished for that area.

97L looks like it's starting to get pulled north by the trough that's moved off of the east coast of the lower 48....


As long as the Gulf keeps up this shear & dry air in the picture, I don't anything brewing either.





And yes, 97L doesn't appear to be any threat to the CONUS, no matter how strong he may get.
...nuthing

699. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Pressure dropped and looks to have a spin to it.


Good morning

I have been watching that area since yesterday morning and posted about it a few times yesterday and last night. The pressure with it was around 1007 mbs yesterday and 4 of the models break this piece of energy off from 97L and spin it up in the SW Caribbean where there is already some convection associated with vorticity at the 850 mb level.

Something to watch over the next couple of days but in the meantime very nice conditions prevail here after all of the rain.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

I have been watching that area since yesterday morning and posted about it a few times yesterday and last night. The pressure with it was around 1007 mbs yesterday and 4 of the models break this piece of energy off from 97L and spin it up in the SW Caribbean where there is already some convection associated with vorticity at the 850 mb level.

Something to watch over the next couple of days but in the meantime very nice conditions prevail here after all of the rain.
I have been noticing it also and looked for your comments yesterday but only saw you post once. It seems to have cooled down at night some.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have been noticing it also and looked for your comments yesterday but only saw you post once. It seems to have cooled down at night some.


I did notice that after work around 6 it was noticeably cooler than a couple of weeks ago. Almost a fall like feel to it. Can't come too soon for me, I've had enough of the heat this summer.
705. Relix
97L 60%. Wow surprise there. Movement is to the NW so I am certain it won't affect us as bad anymore.
Hi everyone,
From this Link, 97L is not forecast to dissipate within the next 126 hours.
Here is a look at the area South of Hispaniola from the ASCAT pass last night. You can see that it is really the SW end of the overall low known as 97L. It is moving away though and once it seperates itself from the low near PR it will stand a better chance of developing.

Notice also the area in the SW Caribbean that was partially caught by the pass.

A tropical disturbance has appeared in the SW Indian basin.

South Indian Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/0830 UTC 4.6S 81.0E T1.0/1.0 INVEST
Quoting kmanislander:


I did notice that after work around 6 it was noticeably cooler than a couple of weeks ago. Almost a fall like feel to it. Can't come too soon for me, I've had enough of the heat this summer.
Yes, it seemed extra hot this year. Hopefully my light bill will go down now. It has been outrageous.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, it seemed extra hot this year. Hopefully my light bill will go down now. It has been outrageous.


I'll trade you for mine LOL
Quoting kmanislander:


I'll trade you for mine LOL
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 months.
Visible satellite view of 97L and the Caribbean
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 months.


I'll still do a trade,but the real culprit is the cost of fuel.
Visible satellite view of the Atlantic basin
Quoting kmanislander:


I'll still do a trade,but the real culprit is the cost of fuel.
I know. Even at the gas stations. Almost $5.00 per gallon in East End.
716. Relix
97L should move NW and leave moderate-light rain over PR seeing the current development. It was a fun ride to track something so close but it just didn't make it. Not to wait for some of the rains, if they even appear XD!
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N63W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 15N72W AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE AREA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W AND FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH TO
THE LOW CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR WED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NW
AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

(I changed MEDIUM to HIGH because of the raise in percentage)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know. Even at the gas stations. Almost $5.00 per gallon in East End.


$4.84 in town ( self serve ). I guess they add something to truck it the 24 miles your way.

Anyway, time for me to sign off now. Will check in later depending on what's happening in the Caribbean below Hispaniola.

Bye for now.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 month

I checked mine online last night and it was the highest it ever been since I built my house in 98, $485, yet my daily usuage was down, though I was billed for 31 days this month, last month it was 29, something still ain't right. Go figure!!!
Quoting kmanislander:


$4.84 in town ( self serve ). I guess they add something to truck it the 24 miles your way.

Anyway, time for me to sign off now. Will check in later depending on what's happening in the Caribbean below Hispaniola.

Bye for now.
Bye and looking forward to your expertise later on.
hey guys I think that there is a low forming south of Dom Rep. near 15.5N 71.0W andf looks to be moving slowly west







as I get more data in the area I will post it
I am very surprised by the no mention of the disturbance S of DR. Very surprised as there appears to be a circulation embedded in that convection. I would also say that the area S of DR is better organized than 97L is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You might be shocked to know what mine is. Been running around $800 for the past 3 month

I checked mine online last night and it was the highest it ever been since I built my house in 98, $485, yet my daily usuage was down, though I was billed for 31 days this month, last month it was 29, something still ain't right. Go figure!!!
I tell you, it is getting beyond ridiculous. I work for government and they cut our salary but the cost of living is going up, up , up.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think that there is a low forming south of Dom Rep. near 15.5N 71.0W andf looks to be moving slowly west







as I get more data in the area I will post it
Alright buddy. Check out kman's earlier posts where he mentions this area.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I am very surprised by the no mention of the disturbance S of DR. Very surprised as there appears to be a circulation embedded in that convection. I would also say that the area S of DR is better organized than 97L is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Maybe we will see a circle there later on today. I also noticed the spin and the persistent convection.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

I have been watching that area since yesterday morning and posted about it a few times yesterday and last night. The pressure with it was around 1007 mbs yesterday and 4 of the models break this piece of energy off from 97L and spin it up in the SW Caribbean where there is already some convection associated with vorticity at the 850 mb level.

Something to watch over the next couple of days but in the meantime very nice conditions prevail here after all of the rain.
...any future tc threat to the US would likely come from the nw carib or gom.....agree 100% about a piece of energy splitting going into the nw carib and developing,i was commenting on that yesterday to Jcool......
Quoting kmanislander:
Here is a look at the area South of Hispaniola from the ASCAT pass last night. You can see that it is really the SW end of the overall low known as 97L. It is moving away though and once it seperates itself from the low near PR it will stand a better chance of developing.

Notice also the area in the SW Caribbean that was partially caught by the pass.



Recent sat images suggest a nice circulation S of DR and continuing to get better organized. I would also say that this area is much better organized than 97L and I don't care what anybody tells as it is obvious that we should have 98L tagged right now as this could pose a very serious threat to the NW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
Good Morning All,
Looks like 97L decided he wanted to form or get better organized today.
From what im looking at on satellite we should see the nhc bump it up to 70% on the next TWO, although it does depend on what happens before then. I say it will be named Td 17 by late tonight or tomorrow morning
Quoting Jeff9641:


Recent sat images suggest a nice circulation S of DR and continuing to get better organized. I would also say that this area is much better organized than 97L and I don't care what anybody tells as it is obvious that we should have 98L tagged right now as this could pose a very serious threat to the NW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

I'll tell you I'm definitely not taking my eye off it anytime soon, regardless of if NHC tags it as 98L.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Recent sat images suggest a nice circulation S of DR and continuing to get better organized. I would also say that this area is much better organized than 97L and I don't care what anybody tells as it is obvious that we should have 98L tagged right now as this could pose a very serious threat to the NW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
Looks better organized to me too but that is JMO.
Finally, 97L's winds are up to 30 knots--they've been at 25 since last Wednesday--while the pressure is still at 1006mb:

AL, 97, 2010100512, , BEST, 0, 190N, 653W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 65.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Winds have been set to 30kt(35mph) and Pressure is 1006 mb
Quoting Relix:
97L 60%. Wow surprise there. Movement is to the NW so I am certain it won't affect us as bad anymore.

I was a bit surprised too, but SHIPS is calling for a strong cat 1. Not gonna affect CONUS though.
Mornin Y'all,
Quick Question. I am interested in setting up a personal weather station. Does anybody have information in regards to which is the best and what do I need to look at as far as the best location to install? Thanks in advance. Kelly
According to ATCF, Nicole's ACE will be 0.1225*7, instead of 0.1225.

Oh, and every invest since 90L(Hermine) has formed into a tropical storm so far. Let's see if 97L does, too.
Look at this image below and you tell what is better organized future 98L or present 97L. 97L looks terrible compared to this system S of DR. This system S of DR looks like trouble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Quoting Bobbyweather:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 65.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 64.6W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Winds have been set to 30kt(35mph) and Pressure is 1006 mb

Startin' to finally rev up
739. Relix
And so 97L goes over PR latitude. Heck I am not expecting much rain at all XD! With that I am off, be back in the night to see what the Atlantic has to offer then
Quoting outofdablue:
Mornin Y'all,
Quick Question. I am interested in setting up a personal weather station. Does anybody have information in regards to which is the best and what do I need to look at as far as the best location to install? Thanks in advance. Kelly

Years ago when I had one, I used to prefer Davis Instruments. But I'm sure since then, better stuff has rolled along. For the anomometer, I used to mount mine on the roof from a tripod...approximately 35 feet off the ground. But the damn towering oak trees always overpowered everything around, so I never got a good wind reading, even in a storm.
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.
Quoting Jeff9641:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.


Anyone have a updated vortice map of the area south of the DR? Thx!
743. MahFL
Red Alert !
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Years ago when I had one, I used to prefer Davis Instruments. But I'm sure since then, better stuff has rolled along. For the anomometer, I used to mount mine on the roof from a tripod...approximately 35 feet off the ground. But the damn towering oak trees always overpowered everything around, so I never got a good wind reading, even in a storm.
I live on 3acres, open to fields on three sides backing onto a cypress swamp. NO tall trees anywhere near my house! Lessons learned from hurricaines past. Would an anomometer need to be so high if it has nothing blocking it?
Quoting Jeff9641:
Look at this image below and you tell what is better organized future 98L or present 97L. 97L looks terrible compared to this system S of DR. This system S of DR looks like trouble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
I see the circulation there but to be honest I see no organization with 97L at all but then again I am no met.
Here is more proof that something is going on S of DR.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
747. P451
As 97L pulls away from PR - as systems frequently do it will organize more quickly the further it gets away. Just something about that region for organizing disturbances and even modest TSs...they don't seem to take off until they pull a few hundred miles north of PR and then they spin up more quickly.

Also as 97L pulls away and there is separation between it and the apparently organizing area of weather south of the DR - I think we'll see mention of that feature later in the day if it persists.

When 97L turns North and North East that is when you see the real chance for Otto - and if it's already Otto by then maybe we see Hurricane Otto briefly down the line once it's embedded in that SW flow and not fighting it. If there's 30kts of shear provided by the SW flow - and Otto is moving at 20kts - then he only has 10kts of shear and can strengthen.

97L like almost every feature this year has combated an ULL and an associated area of disorganized weather. These two accompanying features have slowed the organization of nearly every single disturbance we've seen form this year.

748. P451
Quoting Jeff9641:
Here is more proof that something is going on S of DR.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


?

Just sends me to the WU Tropics main page.
Quoting P451:


?

Just sends me to the WU Tropics main page.
Me too so I was wondering what he was pointing out there.
Quoting Jeff9641:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.
I was watching that a couple nights ago. There was an obvious spin in between Puerto Rico and the Domemican Republic. Someone said it was an upper low within some convection. It looked impressive and said it has a shot at development.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
According to ATCF, Nicole's ACE will be 0.1225*7, instead of 0.1225.


Yeah, the ATCF file on Nicole is a little, er, disorganized. They have her down as a 35-knot tropical storm for two TWOs on the 28th, three on the 29th, and two on the 30th, though for the first five of those she was still named TD16 while being classified as a TS.

Hmmm. This looks to be one of those that won't be sorted out until the post-season...
Quoting P451:


?

Just sends me to the WU Tropics main page.


Go to the Caribbean visible Sat. and animate it. You will think that this is 97L. What is 97L looks like EX Nicole a disorganized train wreck.
753. P451


Oct 5, 2010 1200 19N 65.3W 29.71 (1006) 35 (30)
Oct 5, 2010 0600 18.5N 65W 29.71 (1006) 29 (25)
Oct 5, 2010 0000 18.1N 64.6W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 1800 17.8N 64.2W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 1200 17.6N 63.8W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 0600 17.5N 63.4W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 4, 2010 0000 17.5N 62.6W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 1800 17.5N 61.4W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 1200 17.5N 60.2W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 0600 17.5N 58.7W 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
Oct 3, 2010 0000 17.4N 57.4W 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 1800 17.3N 56.2W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 1200 17.2N 55.1W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 0600 17.1N 54W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 2, 2010 0000 16.8N 52.5W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 1800 16.3N 51W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 1200 15.7N 49.7W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 0600 15.3N 48.2W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Oct 1, 2010 0000 14.8N 46.5W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 1800 14.4N 44.7W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 1200 14.1N 42.8W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 0600 13.9N 40.9W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 30, 2010 0000 13.6N 39W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 29, 2010 1800 13.3N 37.1W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Sep 29, 2010 1200 13N 35.2W 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
Quoting hydrus:
I was watching that a couple nights ago. There was an obvious spin in between Puerto Rico and the Domemican Republic. Someone said it was an upper low within some convection. It looked impressive and said it has a shot at development.


Yes, you did! You were the first one to call this one.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Here is more proof that something is going on S of DR.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
This is from yesterday's CaribWX discussion.


TROPICS:
--Vigorous TropicalWAVE 21N/62W...10N/70W, with Widespread squalls as detailed in E Caribbean IMAGERY section, moving W-WNW@5-10.
Upper-LO just NW of WAVE has prevented formation of Tropical LO...but as upper-LO moves W-NW faster then WAVE, Tropical LO may
develop near-or-N-of-PuertoRico or DomRep about Wed6-Thu7...if Tropical LO forms, it will bring stronger S-W wind to areas from
Leewards-PuertoRico or DomRep...LO would likely move N-ENE, though not sure how-fast.

--If no Tropical LO forms, WAVE will continue moving W-WNW.

--Regardless of whether the above Tropical LO forms, some part of the above WAVE is likely to move W & merge with pre-existing
"monsoon" flow in West-Central Caribbean (75W-84W, N of 12N), where a Tropical LO may begin forming as early as Fri8, or maybe not
till sometime next week. If a Tropical LO forms in this area, it should move NE-NW, possibly thru areas anywhere from Haiti to the
Yucatan...and beyond that anywhere from N&E of Bahamas to E half of GOMEX.
756. P451
Quoting Jeff9641:


Go to the Caribbean visible Sat. and animate it. You will think that this is 97L. What is 97L looks like EX Nicole a disorganized train wreck.


Specifics always help.

97L looks like a late season sub-tropical storm cyclogenesis.

The area south of the DR looks tight, compact, rotating, etc. Would expect 98L soon. If it does develop it could really take off down there quickly.

The area east of the Antilles also looks decent. May have three invests before the day is out.

Quoting Jeff9641:
This area S of DR could be Wilma all over again. Yes I said it Wilma 5 years later. This bad boy is going to explode over the next few days. A very nice circulation is embedded in that convection and it's moving slowly west at about 6 mph right now.

It is very ominous...some of those cloud tops are very very cold. Brrr
Quoting hydrus:
I was watching that a couple nights ago. There was an obvious spin in between Puerto Rico and the Domemican Republic. Someone said it was an upper low within some convection. It looked impressive and said it has a shot at development.

I do recall you bringing it up a while back. You seemed to be on this from the get-go
Good Morning.......I am also a bit surprised at the 60% from NHC on 97L. Not second guessing them per se as they often see things we don't but I see more negatives in it's path (a ULL, higher sheer, and very dry air to just to it's NW where it is headed) than positives (warm water a good vorticity)at the moment.....I won't be convinced until the ULL moves away from the area or collapses.
Personally I'm more impressed with the area South of DR, than 97L, JMO though.
The following table (courtesy of the NOAA) might just hold back the "Season Is Over" crowd for a few more weeks:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Quoting Jeff9641:


Go to the Caribbean visible Sat. and animate it. You will think that this is 97L. What is 97L looks like EX Nicole a disorganized train wreck.
...i'll betcha 97l does develop though eventually,my guess is atleast into a td in next 48hrs,the real threat w/be what forms in the nw carib this weekend imo...
Anything noteworthy coming off the African coast? Maybe? (Ignorant lurker here)
Quoting outofdablue:
I live on 3acres, open to fields on three sides backing onto a cypress swamp. NO tall trees anywhere near my house! Lessons learned from hurricaines past. Would an anomometer need to be so high if it has nothing blocking it?

Well then you sure don't have to worry about any trees obstructing anything!

If you can't get up on the roof or just don't feel like going through the trouble, leaving it 5 or 6 feet above the ground if fine. I just always wanted to keep mine 33 feet (not 35 feet by the way...i meant 33 before) above ground because that is the standard, universal height at which wind measurement devices are kept at official NWS recording stations (ie: airports).
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It is very ominous...some of those cloud tops are very very cold. Brrr


Kinda reminds me of this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qql0Yi4DxU&ob=av2e
766. P451
12HR WV Imagery, Caribbean Sea, Ending 815AM ET, Courtesy of the U of Hawaii (direct link to imagery)

New Blog!
768. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
...i'll betcha 97l does develop though eventually,my guess is atleast into a td in next 48hrs,the real threat w/be what forms in the nw carib this weekend imo...


When it pulls away from PR and gets heading NE with the SW flow then it will probably get it's act together.

Yep, the western Caribbean is looking ominous. That area in the south west should persist and this area coming in from the south of the DR will link up with that energy. Could have something of a problem down the road here. Don't want to ring the alarm bell just yet but it does look like a problematic situation could unfold.
Quoting P451:
As 97L pulls away from PR - as systems frequently do it will organize more quickly the further it gets away. Just something about that region for organizing disturbances and even modest TSs...they don't seem to take off until they pull a few hundred miles north of PR and then they spin up more quickly.

Also as 97L pulls away and there is separation between it and the apparently organizing area of weather south of the DR - I think we'll see mention of that feature later in the day if it persists.

When 97L turns North and North East that is when you see the real chance for Otto - and if it's already Otto by then maybe we see Hurricane Otto briefly down the line once it's embedded in that SW flow and not fighting it. If there's 30kts of shear provided by the SW flow - and Otto is moving at 20kts - then he only has 10kts of shear and can strengthen.

97L like almost every feature this year has combated an ULL and an associated area of disorganized weather. These two accompanying features have slowed the organization of nearly every single disturbance we've seen form this year.


Otto will most definitely be born...he just likely won't be talked about that much since he's not posing any threat to the CONUS and he'll probably be overshadowed by this new disburbance south of DR if it amounts to anything...and it very well could.
770. P451
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
New Blog!