WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

97L in Western Caribbean Still a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2013

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Grand Cayman Island had picked up 2.32" (59 mm) of rain as of 9:30 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased substantially in areal coverage and in intensity since Tuesday, but there is little rotation apparent. Cayman Islands radar also does not show any rotation to the echoes, but there are several prominent low-level bands of heavy rain. The storm has low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots to work with, as well as an upper-air anticyclone aloft that is providing good ventilation above it. Dry air is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Wind forecast for 2 pm EDT Saturday October 5, 2013, from runs of the GFS model done six hours apart. The more recent run, initialized at 06Z (2 am EDT) on Wednesday, October 2 (left panel) predicts that 97L will have top winds below 35 knots (40 mph, light orange colors). This run showed the center of 97L making landfall in the Florida Panhandle about 120 miles east of Alabama late Saturday afternoon.The run initialized six hours earlier, at 00Z (right panel), showed a stronger storm, with top winds of 40 - 45 knots (46 - 52 mph.) This run showed the center of 97L making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border Saturday night. The images were generated using our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
Wind shear is expected to remain low on Wednesday, then steadily increase to the moderate range on Thursday, then to the high range on Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. On Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 3 - 6" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making rapid intensification unlikely. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model develops 97L into a tropical storm, and predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle. The European model, which does not develop 97L into a tropical storm, is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 40%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 30% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, a 5% chance it will be stronger, and a 65% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance. Heavy rains of 3 - 6" can be expected falling the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Saturday, even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on October 2, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry continues to slowly wander over the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2984. oceanspringsMS:


Pretty easy to have that attitude when you live north of Austin




I guess you might make a fair point. I have never lived through a hurricane...but I have seen my share of death and destruction...and trust me, I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

Sorry if I offended you.
Quoting 2997. dearmas:


Thanks!! Ok now dumb question, when do the 18z's come out??


I would assume more or less at 18z
Quoting 2993. CaneHunter031472:


Well, if you are so egocentric as not to help your comunity in whatever you can be my guest. Local mets will be informing the public I'm sure, but it will never hurt knocking on your neighbor's door to let them know, Especially when most people are fed up with the news. I found out this was happening because I work for the Coast Guard and they told me last night. this is why I'm out of furlough because it is all hands on deck here. If you don't feel like helping your neighbor then go lay down on the beach on Saturday and get out of the way stupid.


Doesn't matter, social media is where it's at today. Even though I'm in the TV biz, its a dying outlet. Just like newspapers were years ago, TV is not too far behind. Unless its actually breaking while on air, its old news already.
3004. ncstorm
Ivan anyone??

3005. barbamz
Another center pass.


Deep convection is more and more waning.


3006. LargoFl
folks prepare..GFS at 988MB geez..............
3007. GatorWX

3008. Patrap
NOAA-19 SST images show the effect of a frontal passage on sea surface temperatures in Lake Pontchartrain. Average temperatures decreased approximately 4 C after the front passed.

Quoting 2954. HeinrichFrogswatter:


You are kidding, right? "keep our respective communities up to date." Every local met on every television station in an area that will potentially be affected will be reporting on this. The NHC didn't turn off the lights and go home. As you said, they are still issuing advisories. The comment section of this blog is a place of opinion and bickering. Fascinating as it is, I'm not sure how that makes this comment section to Dr. Master's blog "so important".

I am working today and do not have access to tv or my local mets. So am depending on this blog to keep me updated until I can get more local info. So issuing info here and sharing respectfully all data about this system is greatly appreciated and I find your pompas comment very unnecessary. Thanks to all of for updates. Gtratly appreciated.
SHRIMP!
3011. Torito
Quoting 3004. ncstorm:
Ivan anyone??



I hope not, but you never know. it is 2013, you know...
Hm, with the government shutdown & everyone under the sun talking about it, I wasn't even aware there was an invest out in the Gulf. Color me surprised that Karen came about.

I would have no qualms with it changing course and coming our way here in Florida, and stalling out. I wouldn't even argue the strength level. Our aquifers are still badly on the low side, and just because it looks soggy topside doesn't mean we don't need more of the wet stuff. We do, like no tomorrow. It would be a long shot, but one in an area with their water source drying up can hope.
Aquifer levels: http://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/news/2013/wrmu2013-0 9.pdf

And I'd like to point out that I'm not all giddy over the prospect of property damage and such, no matter how far-fetched or non-existent receiving a storm in my area right now is. Don't be a dolt. That's part of living in storm-prone environment anyway, knowing that you could end up with nothing to your name with just one storm. What concerns me more is that what we've taken from underground still has to be replenished, lest residents completely ok with having none at all.
3013. nolajet
Quoting 3003. Chucktown:


Doesn't matter, social media is where it's at today. Even though I'm in the TV biz, its a dying outlet. Just like newspapers were years ago, TV is not too far behind. Unless its actually breaking while on air, its old news already.


Very true. The Today Show just said again, "potentially now tropical storm Karen." Local met is using outdated information as well. I knew from this blog that 97l had been upgraded at least 20-30 minutes before my local news announced it.
3014. GatorWX

3015. Patrap
Wow, Karen skipped TD status and went straight for a 60 MPH TS and with hurricane watches in Florida.
3017. Torito
Quoting 3016. FunnelVortex:
Wow, Karen skipped TD status and went straight for a 60 MPH TS and with hurricane watches in Florida.


Yes, it should have been a TD last night. :/
What happens if the front stalls?
Dr. Masters should be clearing out the Blog with his analysis shortly.........He should be on board with the current forecast from NHC.
3020. LargoFl
3021. Patrap

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031304
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
3022. LargoFl
Quoting 3018. scoobert:
What happens if the front stalls?
my guess with a frontal stall the storm goes in further westward..its the front that will push karen eastward.
3023. Torito
Quoting 3018. scoobert:
What happens if the front stalls?


then Karen likely stalls as well.
3024. WxLogic
Looks like Karen is stalled...
3025. Patrap
Posting a new entry soon, he will..Hmmm,

Fresca?

3026. GatorWX

3027. Patrap
TS Karen has not stalled, esp from 8am EDT as the motion was NNW @ 13 mph.


Datza lotta Mojo to stop on a dime, and it hasent.

LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
3028. LargoFl
ok folks..time to prepare..its official........................Hurricane Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
917 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA WESTWARD.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS.

ALL PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN
AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR
AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM EDT...OR 8 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0N...LONGITUDE 87.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT
580 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS
NORTH NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND APPROACH COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

FOR THOSE NOT YET UNDER A WATCH BUT CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA...NOW
IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AND BE PREPARED
TO ACT IF A WATCH OR A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

FLZ108-112-114-GMZ750-770-031630-

3029. GatorWX
lol
Quoting 2969. washingtonian115:
Hey Pat looks like Karma will come in the form of Karen :).


Interesting, I've seen variations on the karma question here a couple times. I've been studying the effects of communal emotions on weather patterns for decades. Right after Monday's near perfect nationwide weather, anger from the gov't shutdown fueled the physics of emotion on a large scale. Today there's Karen in the GOM accompanied by a bunch of tornado threats in the midwest and huge snowstorm Atlas. It's not woo-woo, it's nature with twist. The clue is Karen - Caring about Obamacare. And at last, I may publish the blogs. Events like this motivate me to get to work with the reams of material that needs to be updated.
Backtracked Karen to a TS as of 06Z

AL 12 2013100306 BEST 0 213N 869W 45 1006 TS
AL 12 2013100312 BEST 0 220N 876W 50 1004 TS
3032. VR46L
3033. Dakster
Quoting 3013. nolajet:


Very true. The Today Show just said again, "potentially now tropical storm Karen." Local met is using outdated information as well. I knew from this blog that 97l had been upgraded at least 20-30 minutes before my local news announced it.


and this surprised you how?
Quoting 3026. GatorWX:



You can pretty much see the track based on those steering maps, NW she's goes and then makes a turn to the N and then NE, just where that turn happens will give us a pretty solid idea on where landfall is going to be.
3035. ncstorm
During active hurricane weather, please refrain from posting topics or images not related to tropical weather discussion..

Quoting 3009. CitikatzSouthFL:

I am working today and do not have access to tv or my local mets. So am depending on this blog to keep me updated until I can get more local info. So issuing info here and sharing respectfully all data about this system is greatly appreciated and I find your pompas comment very unnecessary. Thanks to all of for updates. Gtratly appreciated.


First of all, if you can access this site, you can access any other source of information on the internet. Is there really a single person here who thinks that if they shut off the comments section of this blog today, that a single additional life would be lost, home destroyed or any other catastrophic result would happen, that wouldn't have occurred otherwise?
3037. Patrap
We know, we've known since 7am CDT actually.
3038. LargoFl
called my son up in the panhandle..everyone is preparing..thats a good sign.....
I am not expect Karen to get as strong as I thinking yesterday.

probably only strong TS/Minimal CAT 1 at best.

too many shear and dry air
3040. GatorWX
Quoting 3034. 69Viking:


You can pretty much see the track based on those steering maps, NW she's goes and then makes a turn to the N and then NE, just where that turn happens will give us a pretty solid idea on where landfall is going to be.


Looks like you might get a some rain ;)

...maybe some wind too.

Yes, good indication it's chugging along in that direction.

-24hrs

0hrs
3042. Patrap
3044. LargoFl
ALERT Tropical Storm Karen Has Formed in the Far Southern Gulf. Forecast to Approach Coastal Alabama and Western Florida Panhandle on Saturday. Hurricane Watch Now in Effect for the Northern Gulf Coast Region.
3045. Patrap

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 13:36Z
Date: October 3, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 28

246 meters
(~ 807 feet) 1008.3 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 139° at 42 knots
(From the SE at ~ 48.3 mph) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 20.4°C
(~ 68.7°F) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 36.1 knots (~ 41.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 86.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 13:27:00Z (first observation), the observation was 81 miles (130 km) to the NW (316°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.

At 13:36:30Z (last observation), the observation was 87 miles (140 km) to the NNW (340°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Not an Ivan but maybe a Frederic. Frederic came off Cuba a TD and came into Dauphin Island a strong Cat 3 with 125 winds. IMHO tonight will tell us all what Miss Karen has in mind.
Quoting 3004. ncstorm:
Ivan anyone??




Please, no Crazy Ivan thoughts just yet. ;)
3048. Patrap


No Current Intensity Guidance goes above Cat 1

3049. LargoFl
3050. GatorWX
Quoting 3041. nrtiwlnvragn:
RSO Visible Loop


Needs some attire..
3051. Torito
latest wind data:


57.0 knots (~ 65.6 mph)
Tropical Storm

DATA
3052. Patrap
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Watch
Statement as of 4:18 AM CDT on October 03, 2013

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect through Saturday evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect through Saturday evening.

* Coastal flooding... tide levels are expected to increase to 1 to
2 feet above normal by tonight... 2 feet above normal Friday and
2 to 4 feet above normal Saturday along east-facing shores of
southeast Louisiana and along the Mississippi coast.

* Timing... today through Saturday evening.

* Impacts... outside hurricane protection levee systems... tides are
likely to produce inundation of low lying coastal areas. Water levels
will also increase in bayous... bays and lower reaches of rivers
that drain into the tidal waters. Flood abatement structures may
be closed at times during the next few days.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.

Mariners should check on the status of flood gates before
venturing out... particularly with the Lake Borgne levee district
flood gates at Bayou Bienvenue and bayou Dupre.

If a tropical storm does develop later today... all or portions of the
coastal Flood Watch may be replaced by tropical storm watches and
warnings... depending on forecast track and uncertainty error Cone.
Stay tuned for later statements and possible warnings during this
evolving weather situation.



24/rr

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/US/LA/062.html#dkAdXfY tivL4Ofb6.99


@SkyAlertStorm
- Alert Quintana Roo - the center of # Karen is practically in Cancun. Its size is over 500kms diameter.
3054. JNTenne
Quoting 2997. dearmas:


Thanks!! Ok now dumb question, when do the 18z's come out??

Does anyone really know what time it is?
3055. WxLogic
Quoting 3027. Patrap:
TS Karen has not stalled, esp from 8am EDT as the motion was NNW @ 13 mph.


Datza lotta Mojo to stop on a dime, and it hasent.

LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Yeah, but I'll beg to differ... based on the HH last pass. It hasn't moved. It will moved eventually but not now lol.
3056. dibird
Quoting 3046. pcoladeb:
Not an Ivan but maybe a Frederic. Frederic came off Cuba a TD and came into Dauphin Island a strong Cat 3 with 125 winds. IMHO tonight will tell us all what Miss Karen has in mind.


No Frederic or Ivan please. I live on Dauphin Island.
Very surprised at the latest developments. Was expecting a rain event, lots of rain with minimal 35 or so knots...Seeing it spin up to 60 with 36 hours to go over 85 degree water is a bit surprising right now.

Will load up the tanks of gas now before it sells out. Learned that the hard way years ago.
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday

Dangerous Situation developing in the Gulf.
3060. Torito

13:46:30Z flight level wind getting close to hurricane force.
60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)
3061. 7544
looks like the convection is tryin to go ne at this hour largo if it does you might get some of this
3062. Patrap
U get a Secret wu decoder ring.

Congratulations.

: )

3064. LargoFl
Quoting 3061. 7544:
looks like the convection is tryin to go ne at this hour largo if it does you might get some of this
im watching it closely,still a few days left for changes in track huh
Quoting 3046. pcoladeb:
Not an Ivan but maybe a Frederic. Frederic came off Cuba a TD and came into Dauphin Island a strong Cat 3 with 125 winds. IMHO tonight will tell us all what Miss Karen has in mind.


I do hope you're right, and that NHC & models (with most people on furlough) are not low-balling this storm. Just heard on the radio that we're under a hurricane watch. Not a TS watch. A hurricane watch.
Quoting 3057. C0astalAlabama:
Very surprised at the latest developments. Was expecting a rain event, lots of rain with minimal 35 or so knots...Seeing it spin up to 60+ with 36+ hours to go over 85 mph is a bit surprising right now.

Will load up the tanks of gas now before it sells out. Learned that the hard way years ago.


I tried to tell people on here yesterday that I felt 97L now Karen would be a major threat to the Northern Gulf Coast.
3067. LargoFl
Quoting 3058. StormTrackerScott:
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday

yes scott..you nailed it...gfs is scary with 988mb...
3068. GatorWX
If Karen is creating its own environment, shear will not hinder it.

Quoting 3058. StormTrackerScott:
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday



Actually...that's not what you said...you said we would already have a hurricane....with an "eye"...haha
Karen, Karen, Karen...
Karen getting closer to hurricane status...
3073. Patrap
Quoting 3065. WXGulfBreeze:


I do hope you're right, and that NHC & models (with most people on furlough) are not low-balling this storm. Just heard on the radio that we're under a hurricane watch. Not a TS watch. A hurricane watch.


.Here, this is the NHC page.
Quoting 3055. WxLogic:


Yeah, but I'll beg to differ... based on the HH last pass. It hasn't moved. It will moved eventually but not now lol.
When the next advisory comes out in about one hour, we will see if you are right or wrong. Like Patrap said, from 13 mph to stall just doesn't happen. Crow will be served in an hour to someone.
3075. GatorWX
3076. Patrap
Quoting 3066. StormTrackerScott:


I tried to tell people on here yesterday that I felt 97L now Karen would be a major threat to the Northern Gulf Coast.


We already knew dat, as the Guidance has been saying it for 5 days now.

Again, now can you give us some synoptic reasoning as to the futcha?

Thanx
3077. Torito
So was there indeed RI going on last night like I said, or is this kind of strengthening not fast enough?

Karen is making me very nervous here in Panama City. We're still waterlogged from summer floods and now some TS/H force winds with more rain? No thank you, please.
Quoting 3067. LargoFl:
yes scott..you nailed it...gfs is scary with 988mb...


Largo I have seen to many systems in the Gulf this time of year do this and it's scary infact I remember getting up and Opal was a 90mph hurricane and then at lunch Opal was nearing a cat5. So you really have to watch these systems as models can't even accurately depict how intense a system will be as there just isn't enough research into this to accurately depict strength of a system.
Quoting 3065. WXGulfBreeze:


I do hope you're right, and that NHC & models (with most people on furlough) are not low-balling this storm. Just heard on the radio that we're under a hurricane watch. Not a TS watch. A hurricane watch.



Yeah, the Pensacola ABC station here (WEARTV) now has the hurricane watches up on the screen. Looks to be from Nola to Apalachicola.
3081. LargoFl
its a loner but Bam is still calling for that right hook..stay alert florida...
3082. GatorWX
Quoting 3068. GatorWX:


that map is going to look a bit different when it gets updated... pretty sure..
3083. sigh
Quoting 3046. pcoladeb:
Not an Ivan but maybe a Frederic. Frederic came off Cuba a TD and came into Dauphin Island a strong Cat 3 with 125 winds. IMHO tonight will tell us all what Miss Karen has in mind.


Frederic had a vastly different environment.

There's no way Karen can achieve Cat 3 status with the amount of shear and dry air it faces. I'll be somewhat surprised if it even makes it to minimal Cat 1 status.
3084. Patrap
The yellow one is the BAMS, or "shallow version of the Suite of 3.

BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)



The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.

Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.

Reference: Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC- 70, 89 pp.
Quoting 3076. Patrap:


We already knew dat, as the Guidance has been saying it for 5 days now.

Again, now can you give us some synoptic reasoning as to the futcha?

Thanx


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.
3086. LargoFl
3087. Torito
Karen will not be a hurricane today, just as the NHC says. Hurricanes don't have exposed centers. Dry air is still eating away at the western side of the system and slowing intensification, just as it has for 3 days now.

Seems like Karen hit the 35% that Jeff gave.
Terrible news for the Snapper fishing charters that were looking to bank some $$ on this unique season that opened Tuesday. A weekend of bookings cancelled.
I wonder when Doc is going to post a new blog.
3092. Patrap
Quoting 3085. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.


I doubt you can find any forecasting from me here Scott, I'm not a met, I'm mo an observer and color analyst.

Quoting 3088. MississippiWx:
Karen will not be a hurricane today, just as the NHC says. Hurricanes don't have exposed centers. Dry air is still eating away at the western side of the system and slowing intensification, just as it has for 3 days now.



Even TWC is on the bandwagon.
So Patrap,

I just moved into your neck of the woods. Where's the good hurricane party spot in Mid-City? :)
Quoting 3085. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.


And it is a fairly weak system....and your telling me you know what the future intensity will be at landfall?? If so, please give me the lottery numbers as well....
3097. GatorWX
Quoting 3088. MississippiWx:
Karen will not be a hurricane today, just as the NHC says. Hurricanes don't have exposed centers. Dry air is still eating away at the western side of the system and slowing intensification, just as it has for 3 days now.



I'm not sure everyone knows where the center is, so take a gander..

22.0N 87.6W

Quoting 3093. StormTrackerScott:


Even TWC is on the bandwagon.
They relish a chance to show a reporter braving the storm.
3099. 7544
Quoting 3085. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but you and everybody else was like oh it will remain a very weak system due to the dry air and shear. Everyone near track but everyone wanting to fight me on the future strength.


yep u got it ! i think the fl west coast will need to watch tho if that convection will seperate and get pushed to the east or ne latter on today as karen heads nnw couls happen ?
Quoting 3092. Patrap:


I doubt you can find any forecasting from me here Scott, I'm not a met, I'm mo an observer and color analyst.



Hey Pat, your Saints whopped up on my Dolphins on Monday. Man you guys look great this year.

Email from the Okaloosa County Florida (Ft Walton Beach/Destin)Public Safety Director on October 3.

"The weather situation is evolving such that we need to start storm preparations for this weekend. To that end, we will be holding an EOC briefing for the ESF reps. tomorrow at 9 am at the EOC. I have asked the Commissioners to attend to discuss plans for a declaration of a local state of emergency, so that we can handle this situation as it evolves. Please plan to attend and initiate storm preparation plans for your Department. Thank you."
3102. Patrap
What Guidance for the Cat 3 do you give, TCHP?, or other, as no guidance takes it past cat 1, then weakens it before landfall.



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3104. mfcmom
Wonder where Norcross is?
Quoting 3096. cat6band:


And it is a fairly weak system....and your telling me you know what the future intensity will be at landfall?? If so, please give me the lottery numbers as well....


Well HH'ers are out there now and are finding winds of 65mph.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtm l/130434.shtml?tswind120#contents

What really are they like forecasting an Allison or something?!?
3107. Patrap
Quoting 3079. StormTrackerScott:


Largo I have seen to many system in the Gulf this time of year do this and it's scary infact I remember getting up and Opal was a 90mph hurricane and then at lunch Opal was nearing a cat5. So you really have to watch these systems as models can't even accurately depict how intense a system will be as there just isn't enough research into this to accurately depict strength of a system.


I forgot about Opal .. yeah that storm blew up in as matter of hours. Intensification is not something we r good at
Quoting 3058. StormTrackerScott:
Karen should be a hurricane later today or tonight just as I said yesterday


Scott, could you please do all of us a favor and not iclude "just as I said (_________ fill in the blank) in every post? A simple comment/obserbation eithout tooting your own horn would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Just my biased opinion, but I think Karen is going to make landfall further east around the Big Bend of FL. The slower movement and disorganization will allow ample time for the front swinging down to catch at and turn it northeast starting at a point further south then when the expected turn will happen as shown by the models, very similar to Charley.

3111. hydrus
Quoting 3110. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just my biased opinion, but I think Karen is going to make landfall further east around the Big Bend of FL. The slower movement and disorganization will allow ample time for the front swinging down to catch at and turn it northeast starting at a point further south then when the expected turn will happen as shown by the models, very similar to Charley.

3112. Patrap



@tormenta_severa
Cozumel and 08:52 h under tropical storm from 08:10 h the first image a noticeable change
Pat a color analyst or are you Hokie Or Jim lol.Said 40 times when it merges with front another possible Juan without the loops. Also looking at the models was puzzeled why a lot of them strenghted it before landfall? A transitioning Hybrid? JUan?
3115. vis0
CREDIT: erau.edu  TYPE: Day / Night Visible Satellite  SUBJECT: 97L
 (still!?!)  PERIOD: 201310-02'2030_-03'1230


My22cents?  i REMOVED as this is being re-posted on the latest Dr Masters blog with my 22cents included.
3116. hydrus