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97L in Caribbean Will Spread Heavy Rains to Jamaica and Cuba by Monday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2013

A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Haiti to Panama, and is moving northwest at about 7 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms and a broad area of spin. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear is a high 20 knots.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, followed by a more northerly track over Western Cuba and just west of the Florida Keys late in the week. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Sunday and Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Monday and Tuesday, to Western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to South Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 20%, and 5-day odds of 40%.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of TD 11, taken at 10:30 am EDT on September 29, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression 11 develops in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Depression Eleven formed from a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic on Saturday night, but the storm is far from land and is not likely to threaten any land areas. Wind shear is currently keeping TD 11 disorganized, with just a small area of heavy thunderstorms displaced from the center of circulation. By Monday, the upper-level low bringing the shear should move away, allowing TD 11 to intensify into Tropical Storm Jerry.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 459. washingtonian115:
Bad memories..baaad memories..
What are you talking about? Bob caught everyone off guard. The local meteorologists might as well have been on vacation with a pre-recorded message from two weeks ago. I was called by the dawn patrol to skip school, and I had told them that I suspected something was going to form the night before. I did, and it was the only time I ever did so on purpose, and the first time I predicted a storm before the meteorologist. That little tropical storm in Naples caused home sales to go up and created a whole lot of work, besides the gnarly surf. One of the best times of my entire life.
Quoting 499. stormpetrol:
Personally I think 97L is initialized wrongly and that what makes a potentially dangerous system unless goes onshore soon.


around 12 am this morning.



around 12pm today, 12 hours apart!

To be honest I don't trust Scat. images
Surface obs do indicate that the low is actually further NE just S of Jamaica near where BEST track position was

498. KoritheMan

They are great for guidance and especially tracking, but I just feel sometime we just become too reliable on them and need to focus more on what we see, if we had went by every storm they predicted this season, we would have more than the numbers predicted!
I say just grab a mug of coffee and wait and see what 97L does overnight what what it does when it interacts with D-Max
Quoting 503. stormpetrol:

498. KoritheMan

They are great for guidance and especially tracking, but I just feel sometime we just become too reliable on them and need to focus more on what we see, if we had went by every storm they predicted this season, we would have more than the numbers predicted!

Agreed 100%
Quoting 502. wunderkidcayman:

To be honest I don't trust Scat. images
Surface obs do indicate that the low is actually further NE just S of Jamaica near where BEST track position was


While I agree I'm just posting what a lot rely on. I have found them to be off too.

Quoting 463. reedzone:
This has been an incredibly slow season.. However, it wasn't as boring as most would say. Since when do you have 2 hurricanes on each of the side of Mexico hit in the span of 2 days? When do we ever get a named storm in the central Atlantic in early July?

I was very fascinated with Ingrid because it had everything going for it but because of Manuels quick strengthening on the other side, it kept Ingrid in check.

Been quite an interesting quiet season, and it's not over by all means. We may get a surprise next month or even November.. Perhaps a rare storm in December. It was amazing to see an invest in the Western Caribbean in February.
I agree Reed....the season hasn't been boring at all. All the storms you mention are interesting. I would also add Dorian...he'll go down as an all-time perfect storm for me....caused very little if any damage and confounded the NHC day after day. Bloggers and NHC forecasters were both saying last rites again and again.
.
.
plus, if the season finishes near as it's been, we have all off-season to ummm, discuss how extreme it's been.
Quoting 497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
tooter sighting detected
overpowering mod sighting

Photo Reuters. Source.

The main tower of the Meteorological Institute of the Chinese province of Liaoning, Shenyang was an oversized thermometer. Now the thermometer tower was blown up together with the Institute, to create space for new homes.
wah wah wah wah.....
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Pressure: 29.81 in and falling
Winds: E (90°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Quoting 501. Pallis:
What are you talking about? Bob caught everyone off guard. The local meteorologists might as well have been on vacation with a pre-recorded message from two weeks ago. I was called by the dawn patrol to skip school, and I had told them that I suspected something was going to form the night before. I did, and it was the only time I ever did so on purpose, and the first time I predicted a storm before the meteorologist. That little tropical storm in Naples caused home sales to go up and created a whole lot of work, besides the gnarly surf. One of the best times of my entire life.
Before the 1995 season and the hurricane hype (well really the 04-05 season revived the hurricane hype then 2008) people didn't know a storm was coming for them unless they really paid attention to the news day in and day out.And even then some wouldn't report about the storm until it was three days away from land fall.Both happened with Bob and Gloria around here.Fran and Bertha weren't nice to us either.
I miss this:

515. SLU
Quoting 504. wunderkidcayman:
I say just grab a mug of coffee and wait and see what 97L does overnight what what it does when it interacts with D-Max


A watched pot never boils.

Don't lose sleep tonight over this mess called 97L.

Quoting 507. CosmicEvents:

I agree Reed....the season hasn't been boring at all. All the storms you mention are interesting. I would also add Dorian...he'll go down as an all-time perfect storm for me....caused very little if any damage and confounded the NHC day after day. Bloggers and NHC forecasters were both saying last rites again and again.
.
.
plus, if the season finishes near as it's been, we have all off-season to ummm, discuss how extreme it's been.


Agree, Cos with you and Reed. But, question since my memory is short, please. Has there been a storm other than Chantal and Dorian that wasn't embedded within some monsoonal gyre or surface trough? And, despite the two Verde storms efforts, both of those were ultimately underneath a subsidence canopy which generally was a large part of their demise.
Up until today, I think I had forgotten it was hurricane season. I saw something on Facebook about T.D. 11 that reminded me.

Yawn.
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I miss this:

I hate to brag.But I said their wasn't going to be a Igor in the MDR this year and I was correct.Igor was a beautiful storm.We need more season's like 2010.
Quoting 507. CosmicEvents:

I agree Reed....the season hasn't been boring at all. All the storms you mention are interesting. I would also add Dorian...he'll go down as an all-time perfect storm for me....caused very little if any damage and confounded the NHC day after day. Bloggers and NHC forecasters were both saying last rites again and again.
.
.
plus, if the season finishes near as it's been, we have all off-season to ummm, discuss how extreme it's been.


The problem is (and this is true for myself as well), each person has specific expectations for a season. If it fails to live up to that subjective standard, it is considered boring by that person. That doesn't mean there can't be a couple of interesting events, like the ones you and reed described, but as a whole, if a season does not pan out the way some want, it's not considered interesting.

IMO, one or two notables don't make the season interesting; at least, not enough for it to commit wholesale slaughter to the dullness as a whole, which has been undeniable.
520. SLU
October 15th

We're not going to see a significant, or any notable cyclone for that matter in November given the current state of the Atlantic this year. Safe to say we should start thinking about calling off this bust season for once and for all.


Quoting 515. SLU:


A watched pot never boils.

Don't lose sleep tonight over this mess called 97L.




Looks like 97L is a part of a cold front


97L is done rip
Quoting 517. MississippiWx:
Up until today, I think I had forgotten it was hurricane season. I saw something on Facebook about T.D. 11 that reminded me.

Yawn.
It's hurricane season?
Quoting 520. SLU:
October 15th

We're not going to see a significant, or any notable cyclone for that matter in November given the current state of the Atlantic this year. Safe to say we should start thinking about calling off this bust season for once and for all.




Hopefully, winter will be cold and snowy. Of course, in St. Lucia, there probably isn't much hope for either of those. ;-)
Quoting 523. MississippiWx:


Hopefully, winter will be cold and snowy. Of course, in St. Lucia, there probably isn't much hope for either of those. ;-)


I'm counting on winter to give us some recompense.

Or at least give me recompense.

I feel so violated.
Quoting 522. JrWeathermanFL:
It's hurricane season?


Apparently.

More like tropical swirl season.
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I miss this:

Such a beauty.
Quoting 518. washingtonian115:
I hate to brag.But I said their wasn't going to be a Igor in the MDR this year and I was correct.Igor was a beautiful storm.We need more season's like 2010.
Yeah 2010 was a season to remember some storms were amazing to track like Danielle or Julia.
oh well in other news WUTIP!
Quoting 523. MississippiWx:


Hopefully, winter will be cold and snowy. Of course, in St. Lucia, there probably isn't much hope for either of those. ;-)

It better be, especially in MI. If winter is like the winter from 2 years ago, I may just go into hibernation until spring.
529. SLU
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I miss this:



One of the few MDR major hurricanes in the last decade to rival Isabel .. the sexiest hurricane since the beginning of the satellite era.

Quoting 528. wxchaser97:

It better be, especially in MI. If winter is like the winter from 2 years ago, I may just go into hibernation until spring.


I'll love you forever if you'll deflect just half of your snow down here to MS.

<3 <3 <3
Quoting 524. KoritheMan:


I'm counting on winter to give us some recompense.

Or at least give me recompense.

I feel so violated.


I feel like the Kenner hailstorm back in February was more interesting than this hurricane season.
Quoting 520. SLU:
October 15th

We're not going to see a significant, or any notable cyclone for that matter in November given the current state of the Atlantic this year. Safe to say we should start thinking about calling off this bust season for once and for all.




Quoting 530. MississippiWx:


I'll love you forever if you'll deflect just half of your snow down here to MS.

<3 <3 <3
Snow?what is snow?lol XD
still looking good
Quoting 530. MississippiWx:


I'll love you forever if you'll deflect just half of your snow down here to MS.

<3 <3 <3

Ok, but that means I have to originally have a 140-160" season so I can still get 70-80". ;)
Quoting 527. bigwes6844:
oh well in other news WUTIP!
The area over the Phillipines and the one near Japan looks the ones that would come to play.
537. SLU
Quoting 523. MississippiWx:


Hopefully, winter will be cold and snowy. Of course, in St. Lucia, there probably isn't much hope for either of those. ;-)


Yes no hope. Facing a tough few months weather-wise in the off season with the El Nino looming ...
Quoting 531. wxgeek723:


I feel like the Kenner hailstorm back in February was more interesting than this hurricane season.


lol, yeah
Quoting 524. KoritheMan:


I'm counting on winter to give us some recompense.

Or at least give me recompense.

I feel so violated.


I want you to have snow and cold because I've had to listen to your whining the whole "hurricane" season. For the sake of the blog, GIVE KORI SNOW.
Maybe hurricane season went into a coma..
Quoting 537. SLU:


Yes no hope. Facing a tough few months weather-wise in the off season with the El Nino looming ...


I would <3 <3 <3 an El Nino, but I'm not convinced one is coming this winter.
AL, 11, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 269N, 473W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M,
543. SLU
Quoting 541. MississippiWx:


I would <3 <3 <3 an El Nino, but I'm not convinced one is coming this winter.


Probably by early spring seems to be a good estimate.
Quoting 541. MississippiWx:


I would <3 <3 <3 an El Nino, but I'm not convinced one is coming this winter.

NO! No El Nino please. El Nino typically makes my winters suck.
Quoting 539. MississippiWx:


I want you to have snow and cold because I've had to listen to your whining the whole "hurricane" season. For the sake of the blog, GIVE KORI SNOW.

AND ME.
PLEASE.
I haven't had a good amount of snow in years. GIMME SNOW NAO.
NOW.
I.
SAID.
NOW.
NOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWW. :P


Anticyclone that was over Panama keeps lifting North.
Quoting 544. wxchaser97:

NO! No El Nino please. El Nino typically makes my winters suck.


But they make mine cold and snowy.

Me > you.

gg
Quoting 544. wxchaser97:

NO! No El Nino please. El Nino typically makes my winters suck.


We are on average wetter and cooler during El Nino years, even cooler during Modoki El Ninos. Modoki looks possible:

549. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Probably by early spring seems to be a good estimate.

Which models are showing an el nino event?
Quoting 549. DDR:

Which models are showing an el nino event?


Models, shmodels. We haven't had an El Nino in 4 years. It's about that time. Something has to give eventually.
Quoting 545. Articuno:

AND ME.
PLEASE.
I haven't had a good amount of snow in years. GIMME SNOW NAO.
NOW.
I.
SAID.
NOW.
NOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWW. :P


Nop. Just me. :-p
Quoting 468. interstatelover7165:
Critical Thickness

Pressure decreases with height upward through the atmosphere. If you take any two pressure levels in the atmosphere, say for example the 1000mb level and the 500mb level, and find the vertical distance between the two, then you have calculated a variable called atmospheric thickness.
Thickness appears on many weather maps and forecast models. As to why, first remember that when an object is heated, it will expand. Likewise, when an object is cooled, it will contract. The atmosphere adheres to these rules too; and so, if you hold the 1000mb layer steady near the surface, the 500mb layer will be higher in a warmer airmass and lower in a colder airmass.
Thickness then is so widely used because it provides insight into what the temperatures are like over a deep layer of the atmoshpere. This becomes important in winter storm forecasts, as thickness can help meteorologists determine what type of winter precipitation will fall, be it rain, sleet, or snow.
The critical thickness then is a thickness value that can be used as a de facto rain snow line. For many spots across the country, with the 1000-500mb thickness, the 5400dm thickness line is used, dubbed the "540 line". The 540 line however is not always appropriate to use, and will not work in some locations, especially in higher elevations.
In layman's terms, the distance between the two pressures tells you how hot or cold the air is in between, right? If I am right, then I want ... another bowl of cewreal, Yay!
Quoting 520. SLU:
October 15th

We're not going to see a significant, or any notable cyclone for that matter in November given the current state of the Atlantic this year. Safe to say we should start thinking about calling off this bust season for once and for all.


Quoting 547. KoritheMan:


But they make mine cold and snowy.

Me > you.

gg
Quoting 548. MississippiWx:


We are on average wetter and cooler during El Nino years, even cooler during Modoki El Ninos. Modoki looks possible:


Me > you two
Mine are usually the opposite. Of course, there are other factors that can have a big effect on the winter season. However, El Nino isn't usually a good thing for me regarding winter.
Watch 12N/80W IMO that is where the real potential is, just sayin....
AL, 97, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 140N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
A little behind but wanted to comment on the climate change issue. All the comments and debate I read on here were academic in nature. (They addressed the science of the issue) Something to keep in mind is that the policies that arise out of a reaction to reports such as those released by the IPCC have a real immediate impact on people. Especially the poor. All sides agree that reaction to climate change science increase the cost of food and fuel. Two commodities that particularly affect the poor. There are two sides to this issue: The IPCC and the over 30,000 scientists who do not agree that either there is global warming, that it is caused by us, or finally if there is global warming that it will have a negative effect. Both of these sides agree though that these policies dramatically affect the poor. The IPCC and others who embrace the theory of adverse climate change believe the short term sacrifice is worth potentially saving the planet. Would like for all to consider the human impact of policies arising out of unsettled science. Also would like to address the use of the word "Denialist". This is lazy debate. Name calling is a lot easier than addressing the science at hand. There are a lot of scientists with pedigrees far loftier than mine who do not subscribe to the theory of adverse climate change. MIT graduates, Current employees of NASA and NOAA etc... The appropriate name for these folks is not "denialist" their peers call them scientists. Again, apologize for being a little behind but thought the issue was important enough to address. Also apologize for my grammar on here! Was an educator for almost 20 years but taught Science and Government not English!
Quoting 503. stormpetrol:

498. KoritheMan

They are great for guidance and especially tracking, but I just feel sometime we just become too reliable on them and need to focus more on what we see, if we had went by every storm they predicted this season, we would have more than the numbers predicted!
If you did the robot at every dance, then you would not get to dance with many ladies. I prefer the two step, much more predictable. Although the robot is great for when you run out of moves.
Quoting 539. MississippiWx:


I want you to have snow and cold because I've had to listen to your whining the whole "hurricane" season. For the sake of the blog, GIVE KORI SNOW.
What'chu talking 'bout man!.Give me snow to or..
Quoting 547. KoritheMan:


But they make mine cold and snowy.

Me > you.

gg


Prairieville Louisiana can have cold and snowy winters? Whoda guessed!
Good evening

97L has done essentially nothing all day in the way of organization. Typical for this time of year.
A slow mover and very slow to come together
Quoting 559. washingtonian115:
What'chu talking 'bout man!.Give me snow to or..
Quoting 560. BaltimoreBrian:


Prairieville Louisiana can have cold and snowy winters? Whoda guessed!


We don't even have winters like that in the Mid Atlantic anymore.
Quoting 563. wxgeek723:


We don't even have winters like that in the Mid Atlantic anymore.


We certainly did in 2009-2010. 80+ inches of snow here.
Quoting 564. BaltimoreBrian:


We certainly did in 2009-2010. 80+ inches of snow here.


Yeah, but there was no prolonged cold and 90% of the snow came in three huge bouts.
OSCAT
Screw the Hurricane Season, bring on the snow :p Lol
Quoting 564. BaltimoreBrian:


We certainly did in 2009-2010. 80+ inches of snow here.
I know.That was a very good winter for us.Not likely to happen any time soon though.
Quoting 562. BaltimoreBrian:
I was thinking about that as I typed the comment :).
there will be those wishcasters on here during November 1st saying we still might see a huge storm lol.
Quoting 570. ncstorm:



Typical. :)
97L has to separate itself from that trough...

Quoting 565. wxgeek723:


Yeah, but there was no prolonged cold and 90% of the snow came in three huge bouts.
I don't know where you've been.But here in D.C we had the longest stretch of highs only in the 30's (low 30's mind you).For a good three week period.A slight warm up.but then it was back to business.
nw pacific system
nearing landfall
n cen Vancouver island


Cant wait too start tracking hurricanes down unber this winter
I refuse to stop watching 97L even if it looks harmless right now. So many late season Caribbean monsters start out very slowly developing. 97L may take several days to get it together but if it does...let's just say many peoples perception of 2013 being relatively inactive may change.
For those in SE Texas around Houston area, any forecasting advice I need to know? I'm forecasting Houston from 2 am Tuesday to 2 am Wednesday for WxChallenge. It look like a hot day in Houston so it should be interesting.
Quoting 573. washingtonian115:
I don't know where you've been.But here in D.C we had the longest stretch of highs only in the 30's (low 30's mind you).For a good three week period.A slight warm up.but then it was back to business.


That ain't cold Wash :p

Talk to FunnelVortex, that's like his March weather.
Quoting 578. wxgeek723:


That ain't cold Wash :p

Talk to FunnelVortex, that's like his March weather.


- 30 is cold 30's is cool
Quoting 578. wxgeek723:


That ain't cold Wash :p

Talk to FunnelVortex, that's like his March weather.
For D.c it is.
581. SLU
Quoting 549. DDR:

Which models are showing an el nino event?


The consensus of all the North American models such as the CFSv2, CMC, NASA, GFDL and NCAR show it as well as some of the international models like the EURO which seems to be very bullish.


Is it possible that at all this moisture streaming north on top of 97L is the MJO returning, and isn't this going to assist 97L, if the trend continues?

When was the last time we saw this much moisture moving north out of the Eastern Pacific and South America into the middle of the Caribbean? Wasn't there a drought down there? Is it over now?

With the scatterometers all showing this thing further south than the mid level circulation apparently is, I'm not convinced that 97L is going anywhere fast, and I'm not convinced that the dry air will continue to be a problem at this current latitude. Except perhaps that which is coming off of the continent itself.

Quoting 573. washingtonian115:
I don't know where you've been.But here in D.C we had the longest stretch of highs only in the 30's (low 30's mind you).For a good three week period.A slight warm up.but then it was back to business.

Watch out, we got a person who had a stretch of highs in the 30's over here. :)
566. Skyepony (Mod)

Exactly the area I pointed out in my post #555
I say 97L location is near 14.0°N 77.5°W

New burst of convection developing right in the middle

Wait and watch see what it does with D-Max
D-max soon starts
Checked the buoys & ships in the far SW corner of the Caribbean, where OSCAT was showing a broad surface circulation.

There's a ship..

SHIP 10.00N -82.00W 250º(WSW winds) 8.9 kts 29.82in
I doubt we get an El Niño anytime soon.
I just hope we don't see another winter like this..

It's Official—2011-2012 Winter Was Warmest on Record
03.21.2012_cherry.jpg
Photo by yostinator If you've caught yourself marveling at how mild our winter was, you can now boast (or lament) that it was the warmest winter on record.
The Post reports that with yesterday's spring equinox, meteorologists have confirmed that the 2011-2012 winter will go down as being the warmest, hitting an average of 45.6 degrees over December, January and February. To put that in perspective, that's some two degrees higher than the 1989-90 winter, which was until yesterday the record-holder. Another fun fact—of the winter's 89 days, only 24 saw temperatures hit freezing or below.
Quoting 585. wunderkidcayman:
I say 97L location is near 14.0°N 77.5°W

New burst of convection developing right in the middle

Wait and watch see what it does with D-Max
D-max soon starts
then we come tomorrow and nothing has changed lol, wishcaster.
speaking of cold weather its coming

591. Terox
Quoting 557. lovetexas:
A little behind but wanted to comment on the climate change issue. All the comments and debate I read on here were academic in nature. (They addressed the science of the issue) Something to keep in mind is that the policies that arise out of a reaction to reports such as those released by the IPCC have a real immediate impact on people. Especially the poor. All sides agree that reaction to climate change science increase the cost of food and fuel. Two commodities that particularly affect the poor. There are two sides to this issue: The IPCC and the over 30,000 scientists who do not agree that either there is global warming, that it is caused by us, or finally if there is global warming that it will have a negative effect. Both of these sides agree though that these policies dramatically affect the poor. The IPCC and others who embrace the theory of adverse climate change believe the short term sacrifice is worth potentially saving the planet. Would like for all to consider the human impact of policies arising out of unsettled science. Also would like to address the use of the word "Denialist". This is lazy debate. Name calling is a lot easier than addressing the science at hand. There are a lot of scientists with pedigrees far loftier than mine who do not subscribe to the theory of adverse climate change. MIT graduates, Current employees of NASA and NOAA etc... The appropriate name for these folks is not "denialist" their peers call them scientists. Again, apologize for being a little behind but thought the issue was important enough to address. Also apologize for my grammar on here! Was an educator for almost 20 years but taught Science and Government not English!
Quoting 585. wunderkidcayman:
I say 97L location is near 14.0°N 77.5°W

New burst of convection developing right in the middle

Wait and watch see what it does with D-Max
D-max soon starts


I have to disagree my friend that area is headed ENE/NE and will be of no consequence in regards to TS development, the real area to watch is around 12N/80W, IMO 97L was always initialized wrong , but that's just my take.
Quoting 592. stormpetrol:


I have to disagree my friend that area is headed ENE/NE and will be of no consequence in regards to TS development, the real area to watch is around 12N/80W, IMO 97L was always initialized wrong , but that's just my take.


You could be right

Quoting 529. SLU:


One of the few MDR major hurricanes in the last decade to rival Isabel .. the sexiest hurricane since the beginning of the satellite era.



Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?
Quoting 555. stormpetrol:
Watch 12N/80W IMO that is where the real potential is, just sayin....
I just did, out of Sebastian. I am not making any predictions, but the stuff I come here for is the neat links and the great conversation, usually, and I do not know how to send the links. I feel I am missing some important information somehow regarding this particular developing system. It is actually keeping me up past my bedtime on the eve of a very important work week. Shame on the other weather geeks hiding behind their monitors. Man or woman up, and say your say, lest your voice be lost in the tempest once it develops.
Quoting 594. Jedkins01:


Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?


What do you think the eye is for...?
Quoting 593. kmanislander:


You could be right

Link


I've been looking at that since nightfall.The question is where it tracks?
596. wxgeek723 1:21 AM GMT on September 30, 2013 0



Quoting 594. Jedkins01:


Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?


What do you think the eye is for...?



ok ok ok its getting a little weird now
Quoting 592. stormpetrol:


I have to disagree my friend that area is headed ENE/NE and will be of no consequence in regards to TS development, the real area to watch is around 12N/80W, IMO 97L was always initialized wrong , but that's just my take.

My friend I'm sorry I have to disagree the Scat images ain't always the best and this is a trof of low pressure that extends from Jamaica to panama the LLC could be anywhere along that line and with weak systems they can jump around

Quoting 597. stormpetrol:


I've been looking at that since nightfall.The question is where it tracks?


NW



Quoting 594. Jedkins01:


Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?

Depends on your reaction when you have a hurricane warning for your area.
Quoting 597. stormpetrol:


I've been looking at that since nightfall.The question is where it tracks?


Places it also almost in line with anticyclone that has moved north off Panama, should protect it from shear, its much further south if it moves NNW/N without land interaction , it could pose dangerous threat, just my opinion though!
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
I refuse to stop watching 97L even if it looks harmless right now. So many late season Caribbean monsters start out very slowly developing. 97L may take several days to get it together but if it does...let's just say many peoples perception of 2013 being relatively inactive may change.
It's a good idea to watch any storm, but 97L actually is harmless. It's about to It will give you some rain and gusty winds and then pass by, into the SE Gulf, where conditions are hostile and aren't going to get much better as the week progresses.
Look we need to watch it where we see the convection build and organise that is where you will find the LLC with weak systems you may have multiple LLC or the LLC be jumping around more so if the convection is weak and spread out
Quoting 454. BaltimoreBrian:


Stormwatch247:
I know! 1985 was unbelievable! Not only did we have Kate in Nov 1985, but also got bashed by Hurricanes Danny, Elena,& Juan in 1985, along the Gulf Coast. It was crazy, but also very interesting year for hurricane watchers. Elena was crazy, it was headed for the Mississippi Coast, took a 4 day side-trip to the NE Gulf SW of Cedar Key, made a loop, and strengthened into a major hurricane, and came back to SIDESWIPE the entire Mississippi Coast on Labor Day 1985! Also, slammed Dauphin Island, AL with 122 MPH gusts.


Don't forget Hurricanes Bob and Gloria on the east coast :)
Don't forget Hurricanes Bob and Gloria on the east coast :)
Oh yes, on the Atlantic Coast, Bob 1985 moved over S Florida from the Gulf, and then moved north, and struck the SC coast as a hurricane. Yep, Hurricane Gloria slammed into the Outer Banks of NC as a CAT3, and raced northward to make landfall on Long Island and Connecticut. Gloria was retired. There was another Bob in 1991 that struck Rhode Island and New England, and the name "Bob" was officially retired.
Quoting 601. bappit:

Depends on your reaction when you have a hurricane warning for your area.
By the time hurricanes get to me they start looking ragged and ugly.
Quoting 599. wunderkidcayman:

My friend I'm sorry I have to disagree the Scat images ain't always the best and this is a trof of low pressure that extends from Jamaica to panama the LLC could be anywhere along that line and with weak systems they can jump around



The low only jumps around with deep convection waxing and waning typically in a sheared system. 97L has very little convection along the convergence line of the trough to promote relocation of low pressure. If anything the low is very broad with embedded areas of vorticity. You have to look for the mean centre but for now the strongest rotation is near 12 and 80 in the lower levels. The 850 mb vort shows the low to be strung out from the NE to the SW over a long swath of the Caribbean.


Quoting 601. bappit:

Depends on your reaction when you have a hurricane warning for your area.
So in that case - for this blog - the answer is a resounding heck yes.
Quoting 609. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


No defined surface low. Very broad and what you would expect of a stationary trough
Quoting 604. wunderkidcayman:
Look we need to watch it where we see the convection build and organise that is where you will find the LLC with weak systems you may have multiple LLC or the LLC be jumping around more so if the convection is weak and spread out



You look you need too stop wishcasting 97L has way too march dry air and wind shear 97L will likey do a hole lot of nothing you will likey not have a hurricane this year

This should help insulate the low from shear.



Looks like NW/NNW steering for now.
Quoting 607. kmanislander:


The low only jumps around with deep convection waxing and waning typically in a sheared system. 97L has very little convection along the convergence line of the trough to promote relocation of low pressure. If anything the low is very broad with embedded areas of vorticity. You have to look for the mean centre but for now the strongest rotation is near 12 and 80 in the lower levels. The 850 mb vort shows the low to be strung out from the NE to the SW over a long swath of the Caribbean.


Look again the strongest rotation is actually near 13N 78W and 97L is regaining convection and should continue to do so convergence will increase later tonight and early in the morning
Quoting 613. wunderkidcayman:

Look again the strongest rotation is actually near 13N 78W and 97L is regaining convection and should continue to do so convergence will increase later tonight and early in the morning


I will check on it in the morning. No point watching this any more tonight. Like a pot on a slow boil.

Good night all
Quoting 611. Tazmanian:



You look you need too stop wishcasting 97L has way too march dry air and wind shear 97L will likey do a hole lot of nothing you will likey not have a hurricane this year

TAZ you need to stop I am not wishcasting you need to stop and stay out of this before you get Banned like you did last time

Quoting 612. stormpetrol:

This should help insulate the low from shear.



Looks like NW/NNW sterring for now.

Yes I very much so agree with you on this
Quoting 612. stormpetrol:

This should help insulate the low from shear.



Looks like NW/NNW steering for now.
Shear is actually favorable in the northwest caribbean and Gulf.T.D 11 is moving into better shear conditions as well.
Quoting 610. kmanislander:


No defined surface low. Very broad and what you would expect of a stationary trough
its got a long way to go for sure in 72 hours still shows nothing

11l is forecasted to be a storm by then thats it

it looks like



Quoting 614. kmanislander:


I will check on it in the morning. No point watching this any more tonight. Like a pot on a slow boil.

Good night all
night kman see what first light brings I guess
Quoting 614. kmanislander:


I will check on it in the morning. No point watching this any more tonight. Like a pot on a slow boil.

Good night all

Yep and I said before 97L will move slower than what the models predict this could get dangerous

Gnight mate see u in morning
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

My friend I'm sorry I have to disagree the Scat images ain't always the best and this is a trof of low pressure that extends from Jamaica to panama the LLC could be anywhere along that line and with weak systems they can jump around


I can't tell either, since there is no LLC, but there's no doubt in my mind the general movement of the trough is NNE. I fail to see where anything is developing that's going to move NW, unless an LLC does develop that starts to move against the trough. No matter which way it goes, it's hard to see this developing beyond a tropical wave right now. It's about as disorganized a mess as you can get.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
9:00 AM JST September 30 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.7N 134.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM SEPAT (T1322)
9:00 AM JST September 30 2013
======================================

East Of Chichi-jima

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sepat (1000 hPa) located at 26.4N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 28.9N 141.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) North of Chichi-jima
48 HRS: 33.1N 141.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East of Hachijo-jima
72 HRS: 40.0N 146.3E - Extratropical Low East of Aomori Prefecture

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WUTIP (T1321)
9:00 AM JST September 30 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wutip (965 hPa) located at 17.2N 108.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.0N 103.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand
Quoting 606. washingtonian115:
By the time hurricanes get to me they start looking ragged and ugly.
Nice Avatar. Early Halloween spook?
Quoting 616. washingtonian115:
Shear is actually favorable in the northwest caribbean and Gulf.T.D 11 is moving into better shear conditions as well.

Yep and with shear decreasing the whole entire W Caribbean W of 75W should be in lower shear soon
Quoting 617. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its got a long way to go for sure in 72 hours still shows nothing

11l is forecasted to be a storm by then thats it

it looks like




I ain't buyin this forecast yet and I think this will change too

Quoting 622. unknowncomic:
Nice Avatar. Early Halloween spook?
Yes.October is coming soon (well Tuesday actually).
Anyway I'll be back in like 21min and 45 sec
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


WKC, he's always going to say the same things and then drag you into a fight. Why not just put him on ignore and he can talk to himself about your views on storms?
Thank goodness the Cayman's will receive little effects from 97L. They have been through a lot in the past years.

100% chance he will respond.
Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:

TAZ you need to stop I am not wishcasting you need to stop and stay out of this before you get Banned like you did last time


Yes I very much so agree with you on this


You are ingored no point in saying any thing
Quoting 594. Jedkins01:


Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?
Yes if it is a naked swirl. :P
Half of Wutip in the Tonkin Gulf

Good lord what ever happened to hurricanes like these? This is starting to get ridiculous. NASA STOP MESSING WITH OUR STORMS. :P

Thank You!
635. SLU
Quoting 633. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good lord what ever happened to hurricanes like these? This is starting to get ridiculous. NASA STOP MESSING WITH OUR STORMS. :P



The chemtrails are messing up the atmosphere :P
Quoting 635. SLU:


The chemtrails are messing up the atmosphere :P
Even the EPAC is lacking in that department.

Yeah and TAZ you are now ignored poof bye bye
Quoting 557. lovetexas:
There are two sides to this issue: The IPCC and the over 30,000 scientists who do not agree that either there is global warming, that it is caused by us, or finally if there is global warming that it will have a negative effect.


If you actually stand by that statement, then you have been pretty drastically misinformed. You might ask yourself how you got to this point! But welcome to the discussion, you can get help here if you want it.
Quoting 594. Jedkins01:


Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?
Yes.
nice out here in Weston tonight
TS Sepat



Quoting 627. sar2401:

WKC, he's always going to say the same things and then drag you into a fight. Why not just put him on ignore and he can talk to himself about your views on storms?

I don't really like to put people because I want to know what kind of idiotic talk about my views so I can catch them and flag them all day long (TAZ I'm not pointing you out alone I'm talking about everyone that being a troll and attack me and my views)
Quoting 637. wunderkidcayman:
Yeah and TAZ you are now ignored poof bye bye


You came back early! :)
Wutip looks to have completed its eyewall replacement cycle. Has a few hours to intensify prior to landfall.

Quoting 519. KoritheMan:


The problem is (and this is true for myself as well), each person has specific expectations for a season. If it fails to live up to that subjective standard, it is considered boring by that person. That doesn't mean there can't be a couple of interesting events, like the ones you and reed described, but as a whole, if a season does not pan out the way some want, it's not considered interesting.

IMO, one or two notables don't make the season interesting; at least, not enough for it to commit wholesale slaughter to the dullness as a whole, which has been undeniable.


I couldn't have said it any better KoritheMan. Today, I drop in, and see TD 11! Then I see a sheered system in the middle of the Atlantic, just...boring. Anything that may (or may have) actually be interesting for my (or your) area just can't get its act together at all. Maybe 97L will at least increase our rain chances later this week.
Quoting 636. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Even the EPAC is lacking in that department.



Yeah. Is amazing that there are no major canes between Atlantic and EPAC and that doesn't happen a lot.
Quoting 646. Tropicsweatherpr:


Yeah. Is amazing that there are no major canes between Atlantic an C and that doesn't happen a lot.

Since reliable records began, it hasn't happened at all.
AL97 Looking kinda "Floasted" tonight.

Breaking Bad.... What a ride it's been!!!!
Quoting 647. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Since reliable records began, it hasn't happened at all.

Just shows how exciting the 2013 hurricane season in the Atlantic and EPAC have been! :/
Quoting 651. Patrap:


That shows the real story about the 2013 season.
Quoting 643. GeoffreyWPB:


You came back early! :)

Hey what's up
Yeah I did say 21 min and 45 secs which I did infact I actually came back 5sec late
That has a nice spin to it. I wonder how long it will last before the 2013 gremlin attacks it.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...IT
HAS LESS OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 30
KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DECREASING SOME
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE DRIER AIR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM.
THESE MIXED SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE
GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
065/8. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 27.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.9N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.4N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 31.5N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
I wish I have my car on campus so I can take more pictures of this beautiful area of Western North Carolina like this...



I believe there is another rock climbing adventure in Linville Gorge about a hour and half NE of Asheville, except this time it's two days, one night trip. This is in late October during fall foliage peak (hopefully not too late) so I might do that. I planned on going to Virginia to do some Appalachian Trail hiking for four days via a program for fall break, but I don't feel ready yet so I decided to not do it and wait one more year. You can see a blog post I made a few weeks ago on my first rock climbing adventure a month ago:

Bluestorm5's Blog
Quoting 655. seer2012:
That has a nice spin to it. I wonder how long it will last before the 2013 gremlin attacks it.

Do you mean the Atlantic BLACK HOLE!!
Quoting Patrap:
AL97 Looking kinda "Floasted" tonight.


''Dismal'' comes to mind.....
Quoting 653. wunderkidcayman:

Hey what's up
Yeah I did say 21 min and 45 secs which I did infact I actually came back 5sec late



Dude...not looking to good...

Nova on PBS is scheduled to be about Hurricane Sandy this week.
The This Old House Hour (also PBS): "Season 12 opens on the Hurricane Sandy-ravaged Jersey shore."
Check your local listings.
663. SLU
Quoting 636. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Even the EPAC is lacking in that department.



What a horrible year.
Quoting 607. kmanislander:


The low only jumps around with deep convection waxing and waning typically in a sheared system. 97L has very little convection along the convergence line of the trough to promote relocation of low pressure. If anything the low is very broad with embedded areas of vorticity. You have to look for the mean centre but for now the strongest rotation is near 12 and 80 in the lower levels. The 850 mb vort shows the low to be strung out from the NE to the SW over a long swath of the Caribbean.

It is almost like a booger stuck to the low pressure center, but stretched out above by the connection with something else far away in the same air layer, so the only thing that can break this attraction is if it fires up tomorrow and circulates.I am having trouble bringing up GONG images tonight.
665. SLU
Since I started following the tropics on the internet in time for the 2000 hurricane season and since I joined the blog officially in 2006, only the 2009 hurricane season has been more frustrating and boring than this year.

Quoting 661. GeoffreyWPB:



Dude...not looking to good...


Hey dude you see that new little blowup in the middle there S of Jamaica that's the spot I'm betting on
Oooh, the Sunday Night Anti-post..

So sorry.

Quoting 598. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
596. wxgeek723 1:21 AM GMT on September 30, 2013 0



Quoting 594. Jedkins01:


Can sexy be a scientifically accurate description of a hurricane?


What do you think the eye is for...?



ok ok ok its getting a little weird now


Maybe I shouldn't have asked the question, lol.



I don't think there's a "center" just yet.
Quoting 560. BaltimoreBrian:


Prairieville Louisiana can have cold and snowy winters? Whoda guessed!


We had like 3 or 4 inches in December 2008. Also had three less intense snows in 2009-2010. I wanna see that again.
Quoting 666. wunderkidcayman:

Hey dude you see that new little blowup in the middle there S of Jamaica that's the spot I'm betting on


Okay dude...I will keep an eye...but just one eye...on the little spot.
Perth records its wettest September for 90 years

The Perth metropolitan area has recorded its wettest September for 90 years.

It has rained in Perth for 20 of the past 30 days.

So far this month the city has recorded 144 millimetres(5.67 inches) of rain while the average is 81mm(3.19 inches).

That makes it the wettest September since 1923.

The level of water in Perth dams remains low despite the record amount of rain.

The Water Corporation's Ben Jarvis says the dams are 38 per cent full.

He says 16 billions litres of rainwater has flowed into the dams in the past week.

Mr Jarvis says that is more than dams received during the entire winter of 2010.


© ABC 2013
Quoting 668. Jedkins01:


Maybe I shouldn't have asked the question, lol.


so it was you
Quoting 601. bappit:

Depends on your reaction when you have a hurricane warning for your area.


IDK, a hurricane warning for your area means you are about to get (*&*(&....

I guess that could be sexy - in some twisted way.
Quoting 648. Patrap:
AL97 Looking kinda "Floasted" tonight.



Hey Pat, Floasted? Is that a new term. Not familiar with that one.
anyone see the 500 mb vorticity levels for the US..possible severe weather threat?

Navgem


GFS


RFS warns of worsening bushfire weather for the mid north coast

Mid north coast firefighters are working to contain a number of bushfires in the region ahead of forecast worsening fire weather this week.
There are still around 30 bushfires burning from Gloucester to Taree, in the Port Macquarie area around the Nambucca and in the Clarence Valley.
Gloucester-Great Lakes Rural Fire Service Superintendent Jim Blackmore said most are now burning within control lines.
"Because we're trying to contain the fire we're actually doing quite an amount of back-burning.
"As you can appreciate the more fire you introduce the more smoke there's going to be.
"So these fires will be putting out more smoke over the next few days as we do back-burn to contain fires before conditions are expected to deteriorate.
"Worsening bushfire weather is forecast for tomorrow and it will be heating up a little bit.
"But there's a chance of some rain on Tuesday afternoon, we hope it is rain not just a dry storm."
Superintendent Blackmore said a Bushfire Emergency in the Great Lakes is unlikely to be lifted in the near future.
"Some of the fires we've had have actually been hazard reductions that were lit up to three weeks ago," he said.
"The fires have been burning under ground, through tree roots etc and they're starting to come up again now.
"So unless we get rain, all these fires we've had will come back up in a different spot two three four weeks from now."

© ABC 2013
Quoting 675. PedleyCA:


Hey Pat, Floasted? Is that a new term. Not familiar with that one.


I need my Bayou to English dictionary.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Hey Pat, Floasted? Is that a new term. Not familiar with that one.

Ya no Pat, he speks his own languag
Quoting 665. SLU:
Since I started following the tropics on the internet in time for the 2000 hurricane season and since I joined the blog officially in 2006, only the 2009 hurricane season has been more frustrating and boring than this year.


2009 was certainly more interesting, with Bill threatening to impact the United States, Fred rapidly developing in the East Atlantic, and small little Grace becoming the farther northeast-forming tropical cyclone on record.

What do we have to show this season? A storm that struggled with dry air and shear up to landfall in Florida, a storm that managed to become a weak tropical storm prior to landfall in Mexico, a sheared storm that set a record forward motion in the deep tropics in July, a system that wouldn't go away, a storm that hardly intensified before dying in dry air, a storm that rapidly developed in the Bay of Campeche before moving into Mexico, a storm that was killed by mid-level dry air in the Caribbean before regenerating and struggling with shear near Bermuda, a hurricane that far under-performed compared to forecasts the second time around, another weak hurricane that struggled with shear from an East Pacific, and now a tropical depression that is likely to struggle with shear.
Aussie- How are things in the land down under?

Are you going into spring now?
Wutip is looking pretty impressive this evening.



Quoting 670. KoritheMan:


We had like 3 or 4 inches in December 2008. Also had three less intense snows in 2009-2010. I wanna see that again.


Last time it snowed here was Christmas Eve, 1989. It barely made it to the ground and it certainly didn't stick, but it snowed! We were turning into our neighborhood after going out to look at Christmas lights when my mom said, "oh my god, it's snowing!" I was only 4, but remember it well.
WOW BIG Eye.



Vietnam Radar

Loop

97L looks to be Texas bound on this.

Quoting Dakster:
Aussie- How are things in the land down under?

Are you going into spring now?


This are um going ok I guess... We are almost 1 month into Spring now, we started Spring September 1st.
Iron Chef America...Battle...Cream Cheese!
689. SLU
Quoting 681. TropicalAnalystwx13:

2009 was certainly more interesting, with Bill threatening to impact the United States, Fred rapidly developing in the East Atlantic, and small little Grace becoming the farther northeast-forming tropical cyclone on record.

What do we have to show this season? A storm that struggled with dry air and shear up to landfall in Florida, a storm that managed to become a weak tropical storm prior to landfall in Mexico, a sheared storm that set a record forward motion in the deep tropics in July, a system that wouldn't go away, a storm that hardly intensified before dying in dry air, a storm that rapidly developed in the Bay of Campeche before moving into Mexico, a storm that was killed by mid-level dry air in the Caribbean before regenerating and struggling with shear near Bermuda, a hurricane that far under-performed compared to forecasts the second time around, another weak hurricane that struggled with shear from an East Pacific, and now a tropical depression that is likely to struggle with shear.


Point taken. The high expectations of this season have made it an even more bitter experience.
Quoting 670. KoritheMan:


We had like 3 or 4 inches in December 2008. Also had three less intense snows in 2009-2010. I wanna see that again.



I wanna see 14 F again and Lake P frozen.

Lake Pontchartrain Freezes - December, 1989


Quoting unknowncomic:
97L looks to be Texas bound on this.



Further on in that run it gets pulled NE by a cold front once it reaches the Mid GOM.
CONUS

W ATL
Quoting 690. Patrap:



I wanna see 14 F again and Lake P frozen.

Lake Pontchartrain Freezes - December, 1989




Unfortunately, I wasn't born until 1991, but I have looked at the temperature data for Baton Rouge and New Orleans during that multi-day event; my dad also told me stories. It sounds awesome.
Quoting 684. GatorWX:


Last time it snowed here was Christmas Eve, 1989. It barely made it to the ground and it certainly didn't stick, but it snowed! We were turning into our neighborhood after going out to look at Christmas lights when my mom said, "oh my god, it's snowing!" I was only 4, but remember it well.


Let it snow
Let it snow
Let it snow
Quoting 691. AussieStorm:


Further on in that run it gets pulled NE by a cold front once it reaches the Mid GOM.
CONUS

W ATL
Yep, the NAM only goes to 84 Hrs.
Ya never know...

Quoting 693. KoritheMan:


Unfortunately, I wasn't born until 1991, but I have looked at the temperature data for Baton Rouge and New Orleans during that multi-day event; my dad also told me stories. It sounds awesome.


It was a Fast settling in Blue Northern fo sho.


Sleet, then very lil Sneaux, then Boom, Arctic Air froze us in for 2-3 days.

I spent a month as a plumber. Made beaucoup dollars too.


Coldest in my 29 years at the time...stateside.
Pat, you ever catch notice of the seeming correlation between Louisiana hurricanes and succeeding winter snowfalls? I was told by our dear friend Harrison (weatherh98) that Bob Breck made a hypothesis on it once. I don't know how sound it is, but we did have snow after Gustav.
Quoting 694. KoritheMan:


Let it snow
Let it snow
Let it snow


Quoting 696. GatorWX:
Ya never know...



I love that photo... One of my long time favorites.
Quoting 698. KoritheMan:
Pat, you ever catch notice of the seeming correlation between Louisiana hurricanes and succeeding winter snowfalls? I was told by our dear friend Harrison (weatherh98) that Bob Breck made a hypothesis on it once. I don't know how sound it is, but we did have snow after Gustav.


Its a neat coincidence I feel, as we had the first Xmas Day Sneaux in New Orleans in 50 years December 04, then Cindy, Katrina, Rita in 05.

So its a neat obs I feel too.
Quoting 683. 1900hurricane:
Wutip is looking pretty impressive this evening.



That is going to be serious business for those folks. Hope there as prepared as one can be for such a powerful storm.
Quoting 701. Patrap:


Its a neat coincidence I feel, as we had the first Xmas Day Sneaux in New Orleans in 50 years December 04, then Cindy, Katrina, Rita in 05.

So its a neat obs I feel too.


3 months after Hugo Charleston SC had a near blizzard.
Winter 2009-2010's highly negative AO



Coldest since 1981 for many regions of Florida.
Quoting 684. GatorWX:


Last time it snowed here was Christmas Eve, 1989. It barely made it to the ground and it certainly didn't stick, but it snowed! We were turning into our neighborhood after going out to look at Christmas lights when my mom said, "oh my god, it's snowing!" I was only 4, but remember it well.
Remember that well..On Christmas Eve too..:)
Another posible rainmaker over Fkushima.

Rad, keeps flowing like a river.... on and on to the sea....

Quoting 705. GatorWX:
Winter 2009-2010's highly negative AO



Coldest since 1981 for many regions of Florida.


1985 was also pretty chilly
Quoting 696. GatorWX:
Ya never know...



I have never seen snow on the ground here in Florida yet and I've been here 34 years. I moved to Jacksonville in 2003 and everyone that's lived here for a long time has told me that it snowed here Christmas of 1989 and they all tell me it stuck and it was like 2 or 3 inches in some areas... I've seen flurries a few times since I've been here but nothing that has stuck yet.

Eric
Quoting 705. GatorWX:
Winter 2009-2010's highly negative AO



Coldest since 1981 for many regions of Florida.


meh, here's a link.
Quoting 708. BaltimoreBrian:


1985 was also pretty chilly


Crestview is typically colder than surrounding locations and usually the coldest or one of the coldest locales in FL during cold snaps. It's unusual in that it sits in a valley of sorts, I believe.
This was in December of 2010, two weeks before that epic snowfall in Central NC on December 26th. I was heading home with my family from seeing Christmas lights in Bristol, TN when we ran into an insane sudden mountainous snowstorm crossing the border from Tennessee to North Carolina. It got to the point I-40 got filled in by 6-10 inches of snow so we had to stop at an overlook to wait on the plows to come through. Later that day when we got out of it, I visited downtown Asheville for first time and saw UNCA campus for first time. I was that whiny kid that just want to keep on going home instead of stopping at Christmas themed Biltmore and Asheville (we did visited Biltmore that day) and I really didn't care that much about UNCA campus since I told parents I wasn't going there anyway. 3 years later, I'm a college student that really love everything about Asheville and UNCA.




Quoting 709. EricfromJax:


I have never seen snow on the ground here in Florida yet and I've been here 34 years. I moved to Jacksonville in 2003 and everyone that's lived here for a long time has told me that it snowed here Christmas of 1989 and they all tell me it stuck and it was like 2 or 3 inches in some areas... I've seen flurries a few times since I've been here but nothing that has stuck yet.

Eric


It's tough to get a real snow here as it usually comes before the arctic air really settles in. Temps before our snow "events" are usually considerably warmer than after, keeping the ground too warm to allow much, if anything, to stick. I've seen ocean-effect snow on the east coast, although not first hand. It snows often enough, usually every two years or so somewhere in the state.
Quoting 705. GatorWX:
Winter 2009-2010's highly negative AO



Coldest since 1981 for many regions of Florida.

I took part of that firsthand here in the FL Panhandle. We had multiple hard freezes. The coldest night I was out there covering citrus trees all less than a year old. Woke up the next morning to 17 degrees and some of the trees exposed because the blankets/coverings were messed up by the wind.

Lost only one of them (a limequat) but heavy damage to the rest. Don't want to do that again.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION QUEDAN
11:00 AM PhST September 30 2013
===============================================

Tropical Depression "QUEDAN" has maintained its strength and continues to move over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Quedan (1000 hPa) located at 12.0N 133.9E or 800 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-7.5 mm per hour (moderate to occasionally heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "QUEDAN" will not yet affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 713. GatorWX:


It's tough to get a real snow here as it usually comes before the arctic air really settles in. Temps before our snow "events" are usually considerably warmer than after, keeping the ground too warm to allow much, if anything, to stick. I've seen ocean-effect snow on the east coast, although not first hand. It snows often enough, usually every two years or so somewhere in the state.

When we would get some deep freezes here in the FL Panhandle, I can imagine being back in Illinois with the snow and all. But thing in FL is, when it gets cold enough to snow, it's desert dry!! Only if a powerful system really digs down south will we get the moisture from it with the cold.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM SEPAT (T1322)
12:00 PM JST September 30 2013
======================================

East Of Chichi-jima

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sepat (1000 hPa) located at 26.8N 145.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 29.2N 141.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) North northwest of Chichi-jima
45 HRS: 33.1N 141.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East of Hachijo-jima
69 HRS: 40.0N 146.3E - Extratropical Low East of Aomori Prefecture
Quoting 693. KoritheMan:


Unfortunately, I wasn't born until 1991, but I have looked at the temperature data for Baton Rouge and New Orleans during that multi-day event; my dad also told me stories. It sounds awesome.


Wow, looking at the climate data from New Orleans during that freeze, it was a lot colder for a lot longer than in Florida, though the absolute lows were similar to parts of the FL Panhandle. It was cold for a number of days there before the big front even hit. No wonder the lake froze! High of 26F and low of 12F on the 23rd with a windchill of -8F at 5am that day. Good grief. I would love that though. I find cold invigorating.
Quoting 709. EricfromJax:


I have never seen snow on the ground here in Florida yet and I've been here 34 years. I moved to Jacksonville in 2003 and everyone that's lived here for a long time has told me that it snowed here Christmas of 1989 and they all tell me it stuck and it was like 2 or 3 inches in some areas... I've seen flurries a few times since I've been here but nothing that has stuck yet.

Eric


Yes, that is true.

Christmas of 1989 saw accumulating snow all across North Florida, roughly north
of 29.7N latitude. Jax saw about 2-3 inches, mainly on the north side of town.

I-75 was closed north of Gainesville because of icing and snow on the road, and lack of snow removal resources, naturally. Lake City, FL had the most measurable snow during the Christmas, 1989 event, around 3.7 inches I think. Tallahassee logged in with 1.5 inches.

It snowed as far south as Sarasota, though there was little or no accumulation that far south. However, the bitterly cold air that accompanied and followed that storm caused power outages and "rolling blackouts" in many areas, due to the extreme cold combined with high electricity usage during the Holiday season.
Actually Kori, I've noticed almost any preference and thought you have about weather and climates I totally agree with (snow, cold, high winds, hate boring weather, etc.).
721. MahFL
Quoting 612. stormpetrol:

Looks like NW/NNW steering for now.


Except it's moving NE.

Funkless...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WUTIP (T1321)
12:00 PM JST September 30 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wutip (965 hPa) located at 17.3N 108.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.9N 103.1E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand
Quoting 718. HurrMichaelOrl:


Wow, looking at the climate data from New Orleans during that freeze, it was a lot colder for a lot longer than in Florida, though the absolute lows were similar to parts of the FL Panhandle. It was cold for a number of days there before the big front even hit. No wonder the lake froze! High of 26F and low of 12F on the 23rd with a windchill of -8F at 5am that day. Good grief. I would love that though. I find cold invigorating.


It's nice to have a change of seasons every once in awhile! My area of Florida did get hit pretty hard landscape-wise in '09-'10. Most of the palms were burned and many established tropical plants and trees were lost. The grass was incredibly brown. I think our coldest high was 44 and 27 was our coldest low. It was the persistence that really did the damage. It was a top 5 coldest January and February (2nd) and continued into March. Although not quite as anomalous, it was still in the top 15 coldest.
Quoting 711. GatorWX:


Crestview is typically colder than surrounding locations and usually the coldest or one of the coldest locales in FL during cold snaps. It's unusual in that it sits in a valley of sorts, I believe.

Yeah, where I live due south of Crestview closer to the coast, the history records show it getting to 4 degrees.

So many people have planted palm trees/plants here in the Panhandle that are really only hardy to central FL, but can scrape by here through mild winters and some damage in colder ones. Although if we hit single digits again, there is going to be mass destruction.
Quoting 711. GatorWX:


Crestview is typically colder than surrounding locations and usually the coldest or one of the coldest locales in FL during cold snaps. It's unusual in that it sits in a valley of sorts, I believe.


Crestview has been called "the icebox of Florida". If you ever wonder where the coldest nights are in Florida at a given time, check out Crestview's lows. This tends to be true from October through April. Usually May and September too. Average January lows are 37-38F.

Key west is obviously the warmest, and is also the driest.
Quoting 721. MahFL:


Except it's moving NE.

It isn't moving NE it just giving the appearance that it is
We probably have [a poorly organized] Tropical Storm Jerry.

Swarm North of us...



Link
Quoting 641. LAbonbon:
TS Sepat



Yes I was right when I talk about these areas being interesting:D the other one near the phillipines may become the other name storm.
Quoting unknowncomic:
97L looks to be Texas bound on this.


97L, assuming it develops and makes it into the Gulf will be, at most a TD, that will easily be dragged east and out to see by a massive front that will be covering almost the entire country. I'm not convinced 97L makes it into the Gulf at all. The general movement of the elongated trough is NNE, and I don't see how a weak low is somehow going to break out of that trough and head west.
...snow.

For now:



Still loving summer! Fall starts in late October here, no matter what the calender says.
Quoting 692. Patrap:




Honduras coming to play,but it looks like nothing will develop of 97L.
Quoting 728. TropicalAnalystwx13:
We probably have [a poorly organized] Tropical Storm Jerry.

Reminds me of Patty by some reason.
Quoting 731. sar2401:

97L, assuming it develops and mes it into the Gulf will be, at most a TD, that will easily be dragged east and out to see by a massive front that will be covering almost the entire country. I'm not convinced 97L makes it into the Gulf at all. The general movement of the elongated trough is NNE, and I don't see how a weak low is somehow going to break out of that trough and head west.


bingo.

Quoting 725. opal92nwf:

Yeah, where I live due south of Crestview closer to the coast, the history records show it getting to 4 degrees.

So many people have planted palm trees/plants here in the Panhandle that are really only hardy to central FL, but can scrape by here through mild winters and some damage in colder ones. Although if we hit single digits again, there is going to be mass destruction.


The urban heat island here in the Orlando area has enabled me to do the same. I grow 45 different palms species (and orchids, etc.), most of which are zone 10 palms (best suited to S. FL). The lows in the Suburbs are noticeably milder than 20-30-40 years ago. Downtown, temps are even a bit warmer on cold nights and average annual extreme lows are above 30F now. I say plant away.

As a side note, the coldest official temp in FL history was -2F in Tallahassee in 1899. I have read though that unofficial temps as low as -6 to -8 have supposedly been measured in the northern Panhandle.
11L



97L

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

It isn't moving NE it just giving the appearance that it is

WKC, give me the coordinates of whatever supposed (developing) LLC is moving anything but NE. I see no NW movement in any blob in the Caribbean at all.
Quoting 724. GatorWX:


It's nice to have a change of seasons every once in awhile! My area of Florida did get hit pretty hard landscape-wise in '09-'10. Most of the palms were burned and many established tropical plants and trees were lost. The grass was incredibly brown. I think our coldest high was 44 and 27 was our coldest low. It was the persistence that really did the damage. It was a top 5 coldest January and February (2nd) and continued into March. Although not quite as anomalous, it was still in the top 15 coldest.


Same experience here in Orlando. It wasn't the extremes but the duration that was notable. The lowest low that year in my yard was 25F, with one day of highs around 41, which was around midnight. Temps that day during the daylight hours were in the mid 30s with some light morning sleet. The chill persisted in 2010 through February and even some into March. I remember enjoying walking on many cold evenings during those months. There were even some where there was already frost forming by mid evening, pretty unusual. Many zone 10 tropical plants were lost, though not nearly what is lost around here during a 1989 style freeze with lows 20-22F.

Some of the rare specimens I've noticed of hardy trees and shrubs (Bradford pear, redbud, a couple flowering cherry/plum, dogwood, etc) around here that limp along and barely survive most years actually flowered for the first time I remember in spring 2010, since we for once had enough chill hours for them to do so.
I wish the team of highly-trained monkeys would hurry up (YouTube server error message).
Quoting 738. sar2401:

WKC, give me the coordinates of whatever supposed (developing) LLC is moving anything but NE. I see no NW movement in any blob in the Caribbean at all.


It's somewhere around 14N 77W moving very slowly WNW-NW the upper level anticyclone is not centred exactly on top of it yet so it is getting a little shear and that is making it look like its moving NE but infact it's slowly moving WNW-NW


That's it for me! Night
Quoting 696. GatorWX:
Ya never know...


Wish it would snow in West Palm Beach again. :P
Quoting 743. GatorWX:


That's it for me! Night

Lator Gator
Quoting 720. HurrMichaelOrl:
Actually Kori, I've noticed almost any preference and thought you have about weather and climates I totally agree with (snow, cold, high winds, hate boring weather, etc.).


Great minds think alike? ;)
Quoting GatorWX:


bingo.


I just don't get it. This is probably the largest trough we've had in the Gulf this year, and everything in that trough is clearly moving NNE, almost following TD 11. Where is the WNW moving low that's going to cross Cuba and get into the SE Gulf going to come from? The models this year have been absolutely awful. What happened to that "big" Nor'easter that was supposed to be causing havoc off the Northeast right now? Oh, it's that little baby low about 400 miles off the coast, huh? OK, no problem, on to the next model of death and destruction...this one must be right. The weather that should provide the energy for this storm is already sitting in front of us, and it doesn't match up with the models. I'll go with what I can see until the sensible weather starts matching to the models.
Quoting 747. sar2401:

I just don't get it. This is probably the largest trough we've had in the Gulf this year, and everything in that trough is clearly moving NNE, almost following TD 11. Where is the WNW moving low that's going to cross Cuba and get into the SE Gulf going to come from? The models this year have been absolutely awful. What happened to that "big" Nor'easter that was supposed to be causing havoc off the Northeast right now? Oh, it's that little baby low about 400 miles off the coast, huh? OK, no problem, on to the next model of death and destruction...this one must be right. The weather that should provide the energy for this storm is already sitting in front of us, and it doesn't match up with the models. I'll go with what I can see until the sensible weather starts matching to the models.


As we discussed before sar, shortwave infrared is the preferred nighttime satellite image. It's not the easiest thing in the world to do since the circulation is so poorly-defined, but it does appear to me that 97L is moving slowly northwestward. Follow the low cloud lines.

CIMSS steering, which is usually pretty accurate, would support this as well.

I don't think we're going to see a destructive hurricane by any means, but I do agree with the NW forecast. Upper low over the western Atlantic that's supporting the trough you are referring to is lifting out, according to water vapor analysis.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


It's somewhere around 14N 77W moving very slowly WNW-NW the upper level anticyclone is not centred exactly on top of it yet so it is getting a little shear and that is making it look like its moving NE but infact it's slowly moving WNW-NW

You mean the little tiny blobs south of Jamaica, that appear to be moving north, maybe, but with absolutely no west movement I can see...those?

If that's them, this invest is never getting to be anything more than an invest.
Quoting 748. KoritheMan:


As we discussed before sar, shortwave infrared is the preferred nighttime satellite image. It's not the easiest thing in the world to do since the circulation is so poorly-defined, but it does appear to me that 97L is moving slowly northwestward. Follow the low cloud lines.

CIMSS steering, which is usually pretty accurate, would support this as well.

I don't think we're going to see a destructive hurricane by any means, but I do agree with the NW forecast. Upper low over the western Atlantic that's supporting the trough you are referring to is lifting out, according to water vapor analysis.

+
Quoting 748. KoritheMan:


As we discussed before sar, shortwave infrared is the preferred nighttime satellite image. It's not the easiest thing in the world to do since the circulation is so poorly-defined, but it does appear to me that 97L is moving slowly northwestward. Follow the low cloud lines.

CIMSS steering, which is usually pretty accurate, would support this as well.

I don't think we're going to see a destructive hurricane by any means, but I do agree with the NW forecast. Upper low over the western Atlantic that's supporting the trough you are referring to is lifting out, according to water vapor analysis.


Hey Kori. Wondering if you saw the 18z FIM9. Made me think of you. :)

Quoting 750. sar2401:

You mean the little tiny blobs south of Jamaica, that appear to be moving north, maybe, but with absolutely no west movement I can see...those?

If that's them, this invest is never getting to be anything more than an invest.

Lol you are too impatient wait it will get stronger and look its moving slowly but yes moving NW majority of what your seeing is the upper outflow from the upper level anticyclone it hasn't established itself on top of 97L yet so it has a little shear that is making the clouds look like there moving NE but in truth it isn't
GFS more or less agrees

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
ACROSS THAT AREA...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.
Quoting 752. AtHomeInTX:


Hey Kori. Wondering if you saw the 18z FIM9. Made me think of you. :)



lol, no I didn't. The 0z GFS sends it to New Orleans later on as a very diffuse area of vorticity, though, and the 12z ECMWF sent it toward the northern Gulf Coast before sending it back south.

Pattern is still a bit up in the air, but I would think a more eastern solution towards the eastern Gulf is more likely this time of year.

We'll see. Still not ready to write this off yet, as the GFS' forecast of a more favorable 200 mb wind pattern in the Caribbean does appear to have some validity to it if you look at water vapor imagery.
Quoting 756. KoritheMan:


lol, no I didn't. The 0z GFS sends it to New Orleans later on as a very diffuse area of vorticity, though, and the 12z ECMWF sent it toward the northern Gulf Coast before sending it back south.

Pattern is still a bit up in the air, but I would think a more eastern solution towards the eastern Gulf is more likely this time of year.

We'll see. Still not ready to write this off yet, as the GFS' forecast of a more favorable 200 mb wind pattern in the Caribbean does appear to have some validity to it if you look at water vapor imagery.


Glad you explained that Euro run for me. Was a bit confusing. :) With this year who knows. I'll be glad when the water cools down finally. Although, not looking forward to any snow. lol.
Not much change with the 2am TWO but if convection continues to increase and at faster rate by peak D-Max and it organises then I'm expecting a % rise for the 8am and 2pm TWO

And TWO mentioned key words
Slow development and slow movement towards the NW
Though I think slow movement is an understament I would say more like very slow movement as I said from earlier 97L will move slower than what models are forecasting
This is a radar animation of Wutip from Youtube. There is something seriously mesmerizing about this. About midway through it goes into slow motion.

Severe typhoon Wutip - Xisha radar
Published on Sep 29, 2013

The eye of severe typhoon Wutip passed very close to Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Animation of the Xisha radar reflectivity images shows trochoidal motion of the eye as it tracks generally westward across the islands, much like the wobbling motion of a spinning top! Images courtesy of China Meteorological Administration.



"ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK..."

Already a step down in wording from previous TWOs. Expect this to continue. There will be too much shear and dry air to allow for development in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.
Quoting 757. AtHomeInTX:


Glad you explained that Euro run for me. Was a bit confusing. :) With this year who knows. I'll be glad when the water cools down finally. Although, not looking forward to any snow. lol.


What?! You don't like snow?!

:|
Quoting 761. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK..."

Already a step down in wording from previous TWOs. Expect this to continue. There will be too much shear and dry air to allow for development in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.


I don't see it, Cody.



How is that "marginally favorable"? I'll admit there is some wiggle room that will depend on whether or not the system has adequate upper support, but this pattern does not scream unfavorable to me. I'll respectfully disagree with Stewart here.
Quoting 763. KoritheMan:


I don't see it, Cody.



How is that "marginally favorable"? I'll admit there is some wiggle room that will depend on whether or not the system has adequate upper support, but this pattern does not scream unfavorable to me. I'll respectfully disagree with Stewart here.

Displaced anticyclone...vorticity maximum is already entering the Gulf at that point.

Before that point it looks "okay" I guess.

Quoting 764. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Displaced anticyclone...vorticity maximum is already entering the Gulf at that point.

Before that point it looks "okay".



The anticyclone is displaced to the east of the low in that image. That would provide an upper-level southerly flow, which is not destructive for a northward-moving system (or at all, actually). I'll give you the vortmax already being in the Gulf part, where there will be shear. Depends on timing, I suppose. Think the GFS is about a day too fast there, but we'll see.

I'm not expecting anything strong, but I don't want to write off a potential cyclone from this just yet.
Quoting 762. KoritheMan:


What?! You don't like snow?!

:|


Snow's ok if you like it I guess. I just don't like cold! And snow is cold. lol Hope you get some though. :)
AL, 97, 2013093006, , BEST, 0, 141N, 787W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
30/0545 UTC 26.9N 46.9W T2.0/2.0 11L -- Atlantic
Quoting 761. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK..."

Already a step down in wording from previous TWOs. Expect this to continue. There will be too much shear and dry air to allow for development in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.
Quoting 763. KoritheMan:


I don't see it, Cody.



How is that "marginally favorable"? I'll admit there is some wiggle room that will depend on whether or not the system has adequate upper support, but this pattern does not scream unfavorable to me. I'll respectfully disagree with Stewart here.

I agree right now there is a upper level anticyclone causing 5-10kts shear in the SW Caribbean and in the NW Caribbean also has 5-10kts shear and a small lip of 20kts and a nibblet of 30kts shear in between and it is decreasing so its quite favourable

Now there is a small bit of dry air in the NW Caribbean however it is quickly moistening up leaving a very small bit of that dry air in the Yucatan channel so to be honest I say NHCs TWO by Stewart part about how good environmental conditions are was understated
AL, 11, 2013093006, , BEST, 0, 269N, 469W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M,
97L is refiring convection and by the looks of it there should be a decent amount of convection by sunrise for 97L to work with
Vort for 97L is starting to consolidate and becoming les elongated for 850mb 700mb 500mb vort now growing as well as 925mb

And also convergence is on the increase
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM SEPAT (T1322)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2013
======================================

East Of Chichi-jima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sepat (1000 hPa) located at 27.2N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 29.7N 141.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) North northwest of Chichi-jima
48 HRS: 35.1N 142.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Northeast of Hachijo-jima
72 HRS: 43.5N 150.0E - Extratropical Low East of Hokkaido
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WUTIP (T1321)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wutip (965 hPa) located at 17.5N 107.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.8N 102.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand
Im sorry but that is one sad looking invest.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
15:00 PM JST September 30 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 12.6N 133.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 133.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
777. vis0
CREDIT: erau.edu (find those 3D glasses)
SUBJECT: North Atlantic-Caribbean
PERIOD: 201309-29'1500_09-30'0530

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778. ackee
97L is just doing what most invest a done this seasons struggle to develop I think 97L won't be more than just a invest until when it reach the GOM it will get better organize that about it.
779. ackee
I predicted 14 name storm 3 hurricane and two major I not sure if we see a major this year but I think my forecast won't be too far off 2013 have really prove all the expert wrong mother always have the final say
Sorry, but I'm not buying on 97l being anything worse than a mid-level tropical storm by the time it crosses over into the GoM....and by that time the first power front of the fall season will be crossing into the Western Gulf, which should kick it NE'wrd towards Florida, perhaps as far S as Tampa.

And it's just as likely to either get absorbed into the front or get pushed W into Mexico.

I'm ultimately expecting some more significant action in the WCarib by mid- to late-October as the MJO goes more positive for one last run this season, and perhaps we may even see a major like Wilma or Michelle, which could potentially smack FL or the Atlantic US coast. But once this front goes through next weekend, we can lock down the Western/NW/Cen Gulf from Mobile to Tampico for this year.

WOW..still no major hurricane landfall on the US since....Rita??? We live charmed lives here. (And no, I don't count FrankenSandy, that was still extratropical.)


Quoting 780. AnthonyJKenn:
Sorry, but I'm not buying on 97l being anything worse than a mid-level tropical storm by the time it crosses over into the GoM....and by that time the first power front of the fall season will be crossing into the Western Gulf, which should kick it NE'wrd towards Florida, perhaps as far S as Tampa.

And it's just as likely to either get absorbed into the front or get pushed W into Mexico.

I'm ultimately expecting some more significant action in the WCarib by mid- to late-October as the MJO goes more positive for one last run this season, and perhaps we may even see a major like Wilma or Michelle, which could potentially smack FL or the Atlantic US coast. But once this front goes through next weekend, we can lock down the Western/NW/Cen Gulf from Mobile to Tampico for this year.

WOW..still no major hurricane landfall on the US since....Rita??? We live charmed lives here. (And no, I don't count FrankenSandy, that was still extratropical.)




8 years is just a blip in the quantillion years the Earth has been around. Who knows what could have happened before the advent of civilization!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 46.7W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 1150 MI...1845 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS SHEARED NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS OFTEN
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB
REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT
AND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL
BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED EASTWARD AND HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/04 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MAKING A SLOW CLOCKWISE
LOOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS CAUSED BY THE HWRF MODEL.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE SHEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION IS
BETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS WHEN THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT AS THE
CYCLONE BRIEFLY MOVES UNDERNEATH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AS A
TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING BETWEEN THOSE TWO FORECAST TIME PERIODS BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN AT AROUND 72 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS
MODEL...AND REMAINS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 26.9N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 26.9N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.6N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.4N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 26.3N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.4N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Just another view of the shear. Shear is forecast to decrease.


Does anyone know how to freeze the frame on the cimms picture to keep it incrementing thru its pictures? I posted a shear picture, now something else is displayed


Wind Advisory in effect for Western Washington
Posted: 3:04 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 29, 2013
(with a photo gallery)


Saved image. Source.

Have a good Monday morning, everyone!
Good Morning Folks!......................
this will change daily,too much uncertainty..
wonder why models are so confident on TS.............
Some were predicting diurnal max to blow up 97l over night. What happened?
790. MahFL
Quoting 789. clwstmchasr:
Some were predicting diurnal max to blow up 97l over night. What happened?


2013 is what happened. Although it's not looking too too bad and is expanding/drifting NW now.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 72 degrees with a heat index of 76. We've a 50% chance of rain. Yesterday was a beautiful day with a semi steady drizzle almost all day. We had about .67 in of rain. We have some percentage of a chance of rain on and off all week. Fingers are crossed we get a little everyday.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, fruity granola and yogurt parfait, Canadian bacon breakfast cups, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
792. VR46L
97L

793. VR46L
btw Good Morning All
Amazingly strong storms occur elsewhere other than in the tropics.

It would be nice if Jeff would discuss the monster storm now blowing into the Pacific Northwest Link

Property damage is going to be high, hopefully injuries will be few.

795. beell



09/30 00Z GFS 200-850 mb Zonal Shear-Valid @ 72 hrs


09/30 00Z GFS 700 mb heights, rh-Valid @ 84 hrs

97L represented by the patch of higher RH and some cyclonic turning at 700 mb in the SE Gulf of Mexico.


09/30 00Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-Valid @ 84 hrs

Less than prime conditions now and in the future from this model for 97L. 0% in 48 hrs and 10% after seems fair enough if you want to play the percentage game.

see arrows going into e cen gulf coast surprised none point ene following the gulf stream up and out
797. beell
Quoting 796. islander101010:
see arrows going into e cen gulf coast surprised none point ene following the gulf stream up and out


Probably indicative of a system that will not stack.
2013 yep the pancakes have just been thrown on the plate and have been very messy this season
Everyone have a great Monday! It'll be interesting to see what they say about 97l this afternoon.
Quoting 780. AnthonyJKenn:
Sorry, but I'm not buying on 97l being anything worse than a mid-level tropical storm by the time it crosses over into the GoM....and by that time the first power front of the fall season will be crossing into the Western Gulf, which should kick it NE'wrd towards Florida, perhaps as far S as Tampa.

And it's just as likely to either get absorbed into the front or get pushed W into Mexico.

I'm ultimately expecting some more significant action in the WCarib by mid- to late-October as the MJO goes more positive for one last run this season, and perhaps we may even see a major like Wilma or Michelle, which could potentially smack FL or the Atlantic US coast. But once this front goes through next weekend, we can lock down the Western/NW/Cen Gulf from Mobile to Tampico for this year.

WOW..still no major hurricane landfall on the US since....Rita??? We live charmed lives here. (And no, I don't count FrankenSandy, that was still extratropical.)


Do you not count Ike, Gustav, and Irene? Those were very significant and more destructive than many major hurricanes, Sandy also did much of its destruction while it was still perfectly tropical. And Wilma was the last "major hurricane" to hit the US, not Rita.
5 tropical cyclones on the page?!?!
Morning!

11L has become 11L

No Floater!


"11L has become 11L

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

The new URL is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_f loater.html



You will be redirected there in 5 seconds
"


#ENDLESS LOOP
11L

TD SEPAT

97L

Its called Saffir-Simpson Scale-itis CT.

WUTIP MAKES LANDFALL:

Quoting 805. Torito:
11L



I guess just the flash loops aren't working, for me anyway.

Quoting 801. CybrTeddy:

Do you not count Ike, Gustav, and Irene? Those were very significant and more destructive than many major hurricanes.
I lived through Gustav personally, and I'm sure Irene and Ike were pretty bad..but they still weren't officially majors.
Quoting 810. GatorWX:


I guess just the flash loops aren't working, for me anyway.


Click the links for 11L under that erroneous message and use the floater gifs. :P

Quoting 808. Patrap:
Its called Saffir-Simpson Scale-itis CT.

Must be, "only category 3 or higher is significant."
More damage to the US has been done in the last 8 years than in history.
11L


Quoting 811. AnthonyJKenn:

I lived through Gustav personally, and I'm sure Irene and Ike were pretty bad..but they still weren't officially majors.
You're going of the flawed logic of the SSHS, try to use the IKE scales or the HSI scales to judge severity. Most of the damage was done by surge -- especially Ike and Sandy, which stand as the 3rd and 2nd most destructive hurricanes in US history, respectively. 
Quoting 813. CybrTeddy:

Must be, "only category 3 or higher is significant."
More damage to the US has been done in the last 8 years than in history.


Yuppers, fo sho.

I mean, if ya using the SSS for "Impact", its designed for wind loading on Structures and is a very, very poor scale for overall impact, as most learned ones know.
You're up early Pat, good morning
818. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
820. VR46L
ActualLY looks like something in RBTOP.....



821. SLU
The last thing the NHC should be doing in a year like this is to potentially rob us of another tropical storm IMO.

Excerpt:

SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB
REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT
AND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL
BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
Quoting 820. VR46L:
ActualLY looks like something in RBTOP.....





...cept the center is exposed on the west side.

ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1007.1mb/ 37.0kt
Quoting 821. SLU:
The last thing the NHC should be doing in a year like this is to potentially rob us of another tropical storm IMO.

Excerpt:

SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB
REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT
AND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF
THIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL
BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.


No doubt, it looks like a ts to me. Convection has held up well through the night. I was a little surprised when I got up and after looking at sats, realized it wasn't yet.
Probably won't happen, but impressive looking.

Quoting 820. VR46L:
ActualLY looks like something in RBTOP.....



Should be upgrade to Jerry,even though is horrible looking.
Impressive High Pressure for October.

827. Relix
Models have been hinting for a while a N.Leewards impact around the 15 of Oct.

Interesting microwave satellite loop of large-eyed Wutip making landfall in poor Vietnam.
97L looking much better this morning now that shear has let up.



74 people missing after Chinese fishing boats sink during typhoon.

Link
From the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST EXHIBITS HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF JAMAICA
IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE DISTURBANCE REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST MODELS
OFFER LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND ITS
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA...IF ANY...ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A NUMBER
OF MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...WHILE A FEW OTHERS HAVE
A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AND CLOSER TO FLORIDA.
Quoting 827. Relix:
Models have been hinting for a while a N.Leewards impact around the 15 of Oct.
Still seems like lingering higher pressure
in the tropics. Could bring in a "low-rider" storm.
834. SLU
Quoting 823. GatorWX:


No doubt, it looks like a ts to me. Convection has held up well through the night. I was a little surprised when I got up and after looking at sats, realized it wasn't yet.


Classical sheared tropical storm signature with very cold cloud tops. There's a good chance given the convection that it's generating winds of 40 - 45mph.

Vietnamese authorities evacuate thousands as typhoon hits
Australia network news, updated 16 minutes ago

Vietnamese authorities have evacuated thousands of people from high-risk coastal areas after a powerful typhoon hit the country.

Vietnam's National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center said Typhoon Wutip hit Vietnam's central coast packing winds of up to 103 kilometres per hour.

Authorities closed schools, ordered all boats ashore and moved 70,000 people to shelters.

High winds and heavy rains uprooted trees and tore the roofs off houses.

It comes after China deployed navy warships and aircraft to search for survivors after three Chinese fishing boats sank in rough waters whipped up by Typhoon Wutip.

Chinese state media reported more than 70 people fishermen were missing in the South China Sea. ...


Whole report see link above.
The size of a storm has a lot to to with the amount of damage vs. intensity of the storm.

Sandy is the best example of that. A very large windfield with a large storm surge, yet not very strong (based on cat 1-5).

Then there much smaller (yet very intense)storms like Andrew that have the wind potential to cause great distruction and death.

One thing is for certain is that it looks wet across C & S FL this week.

I am beginning to think there will be no end to the rain here in FL. The models are showing a tremendous amount of rain of already a water logged state.

GGEM
97L did some work last night! Expect an increase in the percentages later on today.

Quoting 838. StormTrackerScott:
I am beginning to think there will be no end to the rain here in FL. The models are showing a tremendous amount of rain of already a water logged state.

GGEM
Once we get an Artic blast it will be done(November?).
Dry air in the Gulf is fading.

Looking aat this 97L could take a west route or recurve into w FL. Of course this will change in the future.

97L is tightening up on the mimic

Quoting 840. unknowncomic:
Once we get an Artic blast it will be done(November?).


You mean 80 for an "Artic Blast" right?
Good morning guys see I told y'all to just got it some time it's starting to look a lot better already I think we may very well see a % raised
The shear over 97L vanished over the last 24 hours.

I just heard an interview from Kanye West and man this guy has lost his marbles.
Quoting 845. StormTrackerScott:


You mean 80 for an "Artic Blast" right?
Yep, high of 80 instead of 90.
I bet this convection starts wrapping around the developing COC over the next few hours.

851. FOREX
Quoting 848. StormTrackerScott:
I just heard an interview from Kanye West and man this guy has lost his marbles.


he's been a loser for years now.
Quoting 850. StormTrackerScott:
I bet this convection starts wrapping around the developing COC over the next few hours.


Yep it's already having that look
853. beell
Well, blog consensus seems to be against me this morning.

I'll stick with 0% in 48 hrs and 10% thereafter.

What do I have to lose?
The season is done.
Quoting 854. weatherman994:
The season is done.

It is September 30th today not November 30th. :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hmm surface map now show sfc low rather than a sfc trof now