WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

97L fizzles; new Bahamas disturbance develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:17 PM GMT on July 21, 2009

A strong tropical wave (97L), now located just south of Puerto Rico, has grown disorganized today. Sustained winds as high as 26 mph were observed on Barbados, and 35 mph winds were observed on St. Lucia yesterday when 97L passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind gusts to 45 mph and heavy rain can be expected in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico this afternoon, and in Haiti and the southeastern Bahama Islands on Wednesday. However, 97L is under too much wind shear to develop, and shear will remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range over the disturbance over the next two days.


Figure 1. Today's disturbances to watch.

A new tropical disturbance has formed north of the central Bahama Islands, about 600 miles east of Miami. The thunderstorm activity is not yet very intense, but does cover a moderately large area. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 20 - 25 mph, and no evidence of a circulation trying to form. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves slowly northwards. The GFS and ECMWF models hint at the possibility that this system may attempt to organize into a tropical depression by Friday, off the coast of North Carolina.

I'll have an update Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hey where the shear going i thought we were in an el nino now the waters are hot hot hot with moderate to no shear
1502. Patrap
Every day that a Wave Emerges with some good cyclonic turning or a impressive T-storm cluster will be watched as we slide into the Meat of the Season.

WV Atlantic,False Color..
Quoting AllStar17:


Why do you continue to downcast? Development is possible over the next few days in the Bahamas. It has model support, and will be in favorable conditions.

Ok yes the potential is there but I personally dont see it. It is ok to disagree with me. The one thing I agree with is the next wave off Africa needs to be watch closely. 97L has zero rotation and winds are stacking as a maturing front moves in. If 97L was closer to the shear line then I would agree formation could happen but it is looking sickly and the farter north is goes the less shot it has. That front will collect it in a day or two.
rufus the truth is we find you very annoying i though i put you on ignore ohwell
another one bite the dust you are now 14 on the my naughty list lol
awesome pictures...patrap
and 97L will be a heavy rain producer which is just as bad as a TD for the islands. I just dont see TD status. I mean seriously there is zero circulation at the surface.
1509. Drakoen
Hwos uor li77|3 critt3rs do'ng gang? Patrapster?
Quoting Drakoen:
Hows are little critters doing gang? Patrapster?

It is sick and weak. Lots of rain but no TD.
Quoting Canealum03:
I'm in Palm Beach County and we don't need the rain of a tropical system. It's been rainy since the end of May. The grass is green and growing a foot a day (joke of course) and Lake O is at average water levels.

have you been out the last couple of days its been too hot
1513. wxhatt
Shear values aproximately 24 hours out does show a favorable environment...

Quoting Drakoen:
Hwos uor li77|3 critt3rs do'ng gang? Patrapster?
you crack me up even if ya got me on the iggy list
Quoting wxhatt:
Shear values aproximately 24 hours out does show a favorable environment...


Of course it does, pre-frontal winds. You lose the westerlies.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you crack me up even if ya got me on the iggy list

i want to see how many people are on his list
I live in west central Florida, looks like these two systems will pass well east of us, east coast might get a shower, otherwise the south carolina and northern states thereafter might get some surf advisories.
1518. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:
Hwos uor li77|3 critt3rs do'ng gang? Patrapster?


Nola Roux is growing,..this was last week

Quoting Acemmett90:

i want to see how many people are on his list
close to 50 i reckon if not more
Quoting Patrap:


Nola Roux is growing,..this was last week



That is such a cute puppy lol
Quoting Acemmett90:

have you been out the last couple of days its been too hot


It's summer in South Florida...You never truly get used to it. But a tropical system heading this way is short-term relief at best and at worst a long time in the South Florida heat without power. I'll take my chances without a system.
1522. wxhatt
Nola Roux is a cute pup!
1518. Patrap 2:48 AM GMT on July 22, 2009

thats dog gonna be big pat the paws are big sign of a large dog
1524. Patrap
MTSAT Visible

I think you should have named him
'Cane Dog.' :)
Nite all.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I love how half the posts on one page are usually towards correcting someone on what they said. Who cares? Some people need to get tough skin.


That is exactly what sent me into lurk mode for the last week or so. Sifting through the worst sort of drivel became a chore...I would rather see "Hi y'all, guess what I had for dinner", and the like, than that other trash. And the baiting...that succeeds.
maybe

wundercanedog
1528. Patrap
The Totally Eclipsed Sun will rise in India for some fishermen. That will be a spookie Sunrise.

A Black Sun.

1529. Greyelf
Quoting Orcasystems:


Anyone else think this looks like a running man stick figure?
moisture could interact with an upper level system moving into the east and cause heavy rainfall across eastern Carolinas and father North on Thurs and Friday. BROAD,STRONG southwesterly winds aloft will create too much shear over this area!!! Moisture of each system will be stretched into elongated zones of showers and thunderstorms. MOVE ON!!!!LOL
1531. bjdsrq
Quoting 7544:
did you all see the post from TampaFLUSA shows that 97l fizzle when it pass the islands and refired and toook a big jumo to the north now going wnw hmm starting to show another refire again does not want to give in yet stay tuned we mighht be in for a nother good dmax tonight


Looks like crap to me at 11pm. See ya 97L! It's energy probably going to get consolidated into the Bahamas blob then off to the NE.
Quoting stormsurge39:
moisture could interact with an upper level system moving into the east and cause heavy rainfall across eastern Carolinas and father North on Thurs and Friday. BROAD,STRONG southwesterly winds aloft will create too much shear over this area!!! Moisture of each system will be stretched into elongated zones of showers and thunderstorms. MOVE ON!!!!LOL



????????????
Quoting RufusBaker:
Why ignore funny people like me?????????
You are only funny to yourself.
1535. CUBWF
Good evening. Can somebody give me the link to D.R. radar.
hey it the last few days it has looked like crap at this time
Quoting CUBWF:
Good evening. Can somebody give me the link to D.R. radar.

I don't think there is one. I can't find it
Quoting Drakoen:
Hwos uor li77|3 critt3rs do'ng gang? Patrapster?


Draek, what do you think of the critter just off Florida? Wheres it gonna hit, good sir?
1541. XL
Nothing cuter than a puppy dog
burned after posting Its going to be a good rain storm on the east coast this week. thats all this is going to be. 97L is done also, thats what i meant by being stretched out.Lets move on the to next one ladies and gentelman. LOL
1544. CUBWF
Yes, there is one. I had before, but I lost it. Thanks so much any way. Appreciate.
1545. Greyelf
Yup. I think I've got it figured out. People turn to making outrageous predictions or pushing peoples' buttons as a last breath attempt at getting ANY response out of you people. Fortunately, I've got lots of breath left. I only ask for some direction to another severe/tropical weather blog that others go to since it's apparent no one cares about anything I add here. So, on the off chance someone catches this, what other blogs can I go waste breath at?
Quoting CUBWF:
Good evening. Can somebody give me the link to D.R. radar.


Here:



Link: http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002
Quoting stormsurge39:
burned after posting Its going to be a good rain storm on the east coast this week. thats all this is going to be. 97L is done also, thats what i meant by being stretched out.Lets move on the to next one ladies and gentelman. LOL


Um ok whatever, I will go with the NHC anyway lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Um ok whatever, I will go with the NHC anyway lol

BAP
see post 1542
it will make you laugh
1549. CUBWF
Thank you, so much atmoaggie.
Quoting Greyelf:
Yup. I think I've got it figured out. People turn to making outrageous predictions or pushing peoples' buttons as a last breath attempt at getting ANY response out of you people. Fortunately, I've got lots of breath left. I only ask for some direction to another severe/tropical weather blog that others go to since it's apparent no one cares about anything I add here. So, on the off chance someone catches this, what other blogs can I go waste breath at?


There are some good blogs here, sorry that you feel you are ignored

I still love your avatar

Oh and I agree, I think most of that is to get attention
Every good meterologist and meterologist want to be, know that when a system is a WAVE,models are crap!!! this site is entertaining.
Quoting CUBWF:
Good evening. Can somebody give me the link to D.R. radar.

Found it
Punta Cana Radar
welcome to the three ring circus who's the ringmaster tonight
Quoting CUBWF:
Thank you, so much atmoaggie.


No prob. Future reference: most any publicly available radar linked from here: http://hurricanewarning1.com/radar.html

And if you happen to lose that one, it is among the many of my favorite links in my blog (just click my name)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
welcome to the three ring circus who's the ringmaster tonight

rufus is lol
Current Steering Pattern for Shallow Systems:

(Source: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones)
682

ACPN50 PHFO 220130

TWOCP



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

400 PM HST TUE JUL 21 2009



FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180



1. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF

KAUAI HAS BEEN MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED AND AREAL

COVERAGE HAS DECREASED. A QUIK-SCAT SATELLITE PASS DID NOT INDICATE

A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THEREFORE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON.



$$
Hey Check out some of these models runs:





im out all
leave you with this 97L i deffinly not done yet!!!!!!!!!!
Ive noticed some people on here are very sensitive to other peoples opinions. This site is for entertainment and learning things from some very smart people on here. chill out dont worry be happy.
is it me or just look back on the sat loops from the last few nights i feel the 97L is a jumper becuase it seems to go where it wants to
1563. CUBWF
Ups, thanks weatherw, already hav it. And Atmoaggie I put on my favorites already. That's why I like this blog. People are always there to help others.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive noticed some people on here are very sensitive to other peoples opinions. This site is for entertainment and learning things from some very smart people on here. chill out dont worry be happy.


Take that back or I leave the blog forever.
stormsarge their is a big differance between opions and scaring people making a bad joke is gonna get ypu burned on this blog ok
Quoting Acemmett90:
is it me or just look back on the sat loops from the last few nights i feel the 97L is a jumper becuase it seems to go where it wants to


Its quite the rambunctious little system, I give you that
Well,this systems should be respect we were without power for about 8 hours in the towns south and west of Puerto Rico, lots of trees fell. Very strong winds a heavy rain. And we still under flash flood warning since it rain more than 6 inches in a period of 4 hours. Effects similar of a tropical depression or a minimal tropical storm.
Quoting MrstormX:


Its quite the rambunctious little system, I give you that

i am so tierd of all the trolls on this blog
hope this clears it up
Quoting Acemmett90:
is it me or just look back on the sat loops from the last few nights i feel the 97L is a jumper becuase it seems to go where it wants to
lets see how it likes the mountains...and its going just where it is predicted to go.
Quoting LiveFromTheCarolinas:


Take that back or I leave the blog forever.

Funny.
stay safe
Everyone please look at that last satt picture posted. Do you see how 97L IS BEING STRETCHED INTO A ELONGATED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ITS DEAD
1573. NRAamy
mlc...are you laughing as much as I am?


;)
Quoting stormsurge39:
Everyone please look at that last satt picture posted. Do you see how 97L IS BEING STRETCHED INTO A ELONGATED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ITS DEAD


Development has been shown to occur when part of 97L helps spark a system in the Bahamas. It has come to an understanding that it isnt 97L itself that develops, so it really has no bearing on whether we eventually get a system or not
Quoting stormsurge39:
Everyone please look at that last satt picture posted. Do you see how 97L IS BEING STRETCHED INTO A ELONGATED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ITS DEAD

it anit over till the fat lady stops singing that fat lady being the nhc

the fat ladys about to do an oncore

This is a post from another blogging site but it sums it up perfectly for/to me so here it is:

The Mid Level Circulation on 97L is starting to fall apart, lots of rain in the areas along the Caribbean and Bahamas, but it's extremely disorganized now. The trof north of it is drawing away most of the energy so it's a good bet by this time tomorrow 97L will be merged into the flow and won't exist.Florida will probably stay dry because of the trof.

And now the Bahamas blob:

No developement at all. It will stay an are of disorganized wx and eventually be pushed off the coast & out to sea not forming anything but a cold core low(if that). This isn't 100% but JMHO as it is but I stand firmly behind my thoughts.
Quoting bjdsrq:


Looks like crap to me at 11pm. See ya 97L! It's energy probably going to get consolidated into the Bahamas blob then off to the NE.

the only see ya is u good bye ur my # 11th on the list
Quoting btwntx08:

the only see ya is u good bye ur my # 11th on the list

see post 1576 can't miss it
acemmett90 what bad joke are you referring to? Is this because i picked your sat picture out and used it as an example of how your hanging desperately to 97L?
Quoting willdunc79:
This is a post from another blogging site but it sums it up perfectly for/to me so here it is:

The Mid Level Circulation on 97L is starting to fall apart, lots of rain in the areas along the Caribbean and Bahamas, but it's extremely disorganized now. The trof north of it is drawing away most of the energy so it's a good bet by this time tomorrow 97L will be merged into the flow and won't exist.Florida will probably stay dry because of the trof.

And now the Bahamas blob:

No developement at all. It will stay an are of disorganized wx and eventually be pushed off the coast & out to sea not forming anything but a cold core low(if that). This isn't 100% but JMHO as it is but I stand firmly behind my thoughts.
+1
Quoting stormsurge39:
acemmett90 what bad joke are you referring to? Is this because i picked your sat picture out and used it as an example of how your hanging desperately to 97L?

oh look at the bahhamia blob its blowing up maybe you should be put on my ignore list POOF
Quoting stormsurge39:
Everyone please look at that last satt picture posted. Do you see how 97L IS BEING STRETCHED INTO A ELONGATED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ITS DEAD

and my 12th whew what a night haha
Quoting btwntx08:

and my 12th whew what a night haha

yah i know
this is just what we need let buy gallons of it lol
Quoting btwntx08:

the only see ya is u good bye ur my # 11th on the list


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persistent in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.
you two putting people on ignore just because they think 97L will die is just as bad as being a troll, maybe you should turn that spray on yourself.

geez let people disagree with you for goodness sakes

matter of fact I agree with them at this point, the flow is stripping all the energy from 97L and the mountains of Hispaniola will likely finish it off. We will see if all of this energy develops something in the Bahamas, but it has been a pretty good concensus all day that 97L isnt going to develop.

Anyway three ring circus is the right term now lol, Im going to get away from here for a bit

later
acemmet90 you are an idiot please put me on your ignore list.
hey don't i get any comments on my patrap like pics
Quoting KoritheMan:


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough as to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persisting in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.


damn beat me to it lol

Quoting KoritheMan:


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough as to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persisting in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.

97L may not develop but it is going to affect the Caribbean hard.
1591. centex
Need update from both teams. Team one 97L survivor perspective, team 2 only help create system in Bahamas.
Quoting stormsurge39:
acemmet90 you are an idiot please put me on your ignore list.
now that is classic !
Quoting Acemmett90:
hey don't i get any comments on my patrap like pics
ya they may be replaced with empty space
goodbye to 97L its getting hard to see it now. its going to be x97l soon.
Oh yeah, and I just wanted to say that, though I do believe the Bahamas disturbance has a shot at becoming Ana, water vapor imagery shows a developing upper-level low over Florida moving eastward. Should the Bahamas disturbance interact with this, it would not only get sheared, but would remain a cold-cored system, and tropical cyclogenesis would become unlikely.

I'd say it's 50/50 at this point.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


damn beat me to it lol


don't know why the other guy did it but i did it because he was trying to start a figth me being the bigger man i put him on ignore to stop temptations to do thing that could get me banned
Quoting centex:
Need update from both teams. Team one 97L survivor perspective, team 2 only help create system in Bahamas.
Or, team three...Move along people and focus on what is/was/will be rolling off Africa.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya they may be replaced with empty space

all fixed
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

97L may not develop but it is going to affect the Caribbean hard.


Most definitely. Stay safe in Jamaica.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh yeah, and I just wanted to say that, though I do believe the Bahamas disturbance has a shot at becoming Ana, water vapor imagery shows a developing upper-level low over Florida moving eastward. Should the Bahamas disturbance interact with this, it would not only get sheared, but would remain a cold-cored system, and tropical cyclogenesis would become unlikely.

I'd say it's 50/50 at this point.


actually I saw earlier someone said the ULL would help develop the system, not sure where I saw it and its too late to go look lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persistent in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.

sounded rude and didn't like it
Quoting hunkerdown:
Or, team three...Move along people and focus on what is/was/will be rolling off Africa.


Eh?

1603. centex
Quoting hunkerdown:
Or, team three...Move along people and focus on what is/was/will be rolling off Africa.
right, I should have included that. Sorry I have limited time tonight to read blog.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually I saw earlier someone said the ULL would help develop the system, not sure where I saw it and its too late to go look lol

agreed look at this over the bahamas its walking up after its wedding night with 97L
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually I saw earlier someone said the ULL would help develop the system, not sure where I saw it and its too late to go look lol


It depends on how closely the Bahamas disturbance interacts with the upper low. If you recall last year, Hanna briefly resembled a subtropical cyclone as it interacted with an upper low.
Quoting btwntx08:

sounded rude and didn't like it


why because it disagrees with your viewpoint?

get a grip lol, it is ok to have different opinions on this blog and really they are right at this point.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Eh?

Ok, guess I will spell it out. In other words, nothing develops out of 97 or the "Bahama blob". Therefore, the next thing to focus on would be something rolling off Africa.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


why because it disagrees with your viewpoint?

get a grip lol, it is ok to have different opinions on this blog and really they are right at this point.

yah 97L is dead or has become 96L or 98L whearever nhc names it in the bahhamias
Quoting btwntx08:

sounded rude and didn't like it


Take it from the advice of someone who has been here going on three years now: more often than not, those that you ignore turn out to be decent and civilized people, despite preconceived notions prior to the ignoring of said user, that he/she was "rude".

In fact, I almost ended up ignoring leftovers on here, only to find out that he's actually a very nice guy.

Some people that you want to ignore may well end up being knowledgeable.

All I'm saying is, watch who you ignore, and try and not let any preconceived notions get in the way.

This advice was given with good intention. Take it as you will.
kori that is a good way of puttinig it
Atlantic Ocean Basin: [125]Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/2345 UTC 16.8N 68.9W TOO WEAK 97L
21/1745 UTC 17.4N 67.7W T1.0/1.0 97L
21/1145 UTC 15.9N 66.7W T1.0/1.0 97L
21/0545 UTC 15.0N 64.6W TOO WEAK 97L
20/2345 UTC 14.5N 61.7W T1.0/1.0 97L
20/1745 UTC 13.7N 59.6W T1.0/1.0 97L
20/1145 UTC 13.7N 58.0W T1.0/1.0 97L
20/0545 UTC 12.2N 54.4W T1.0/1.0 97L
19/2345 UTC 12.4N 53.5W T1.0/1.0 97L
19/1745 UTC 12.2N 52.1W T1.0/1.0 97L
Quoting hunkerdown:
Ok, guess I will spell it out. In other words, nothing develops out of 97 or the "Bahama blob". Therefore, the next thing to focus on would be something rolling off Africa.


I knew that you were in the camp regarding 97L and the Bahamas disturbance not undergoing tropical cyclogenesis, but I thought that you were saying that there was a well-defined tropical wave about to roll off Africa or something, hence the SAL graph. :P

But yeah, I agree that the next area to watch would be a tropical wave coming off Africa, though I don't see how such a wave would be able to develop until close to home, due to the significant amount of Sahara dust.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Take it from the advice of someone who has been here going on three years now: more often than not, those that you ignore turn out to be decent and civilized people, despite preconceived notions prior to the ignoring of said user, that he/she was "rude".

In fact, I almost ended up ignoring leftovers on here, only to find out that he's actually a very nice guy.

Some people that you want to ignore may well end up being knowledgeable.

All I'm saying is, watch who you ignore, and try and not let any preconceived notions get in the way.

This advice was given with good intention. Take it as you will.
Maybe the best ignore would be to follow the true definition of ignore, see Websters.
1614. centex
Do we have a radar loop which shows 97L COC. Is it still moving more west than WNW like it was late this afternoon. I don't want to rely on convection location.
Quoting LiveFromTheCarolinas:


Take that back or I leave the blog forever.

and 13th on the list man was there a troll warning by any chance lol
1616. ssmate
Acemmett. Relax and open your mind to new ideas. Stick to weather and be civil. I don't think people care if you put them on ignore. I certainly won't.
Quoting centex:
Do we have a radar loop which shows 97L COC. Is it still moving more west than WNW like it was late this afternoon. I don't want to rely on convection location.


Shortwave IR satellite is good at detecting low-level centers. Surface observations also help.
Quoting btwntx08:

and 13th on the list man was there a troll warning by any chance lol


That person was kidding, you really need to lighten up

That is some advice from me to you that I hope you take
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That person was kidding, you really need to lighten up

That is some advice from me to you that I hope you take


Well, considering he just ignored mine, I wouldn't get your hopes up.
1620. centex
Quoting KoritheMan:


Shortwave IR satellite is good at detecting low-level centers.
Thanks but all these old eyes can see on that is a blob.
time to check out see ya have fun at the blog circus
Quoting centex:
Thanks but all these old eyes can see on that is a blob.


A couple pages back, I believe someone posted a link to the Punta Cana, Dominican Republic doppler radar. Perhaps that will help you out, although I doubt a definite low-level center actually exists at this point.
Quoting KoritheMan:


A couple pages back, I believe someone posted a link to the Punta Cana, Dominican Republic doppler radar. Perhaps that will help you out, although I doubt a definite low-level center actually exists at this point.

Punta Cana Radar
1624. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Atlantic Ocean Basin: [125]Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/2345 UTC 16.8N 68.9W TOO WEAK 97L
21/1745 UTC 17.4N 67.7W T1.0/1.0 97L
21/1145 UTC 15.9N 66.7W T1.0/1.0 97L
21/0545 UTC 15.0N 64.6W TOO WEAK 97L
20/2345 UTC 14.5N 61.7W T1.0/1.0 97L
20/1745 UTC 13.7N 59.6W T1.0/1.0 97L
20/1145 UTC 13.7N 58.0W T1.0/1.0 97L
20/0545 UTC 12.2N 54.4W T1.0/1.0 97L
19/2345 UTC 12.4N 53.5W T1.0/1.0 97L
19/1745 UTC 12.2N 52.1W T1.0/1.0 97L


Looks like 97L is about gone. Time for 98L in the Bahamas...

1625. centex
Are there any radar loops, they are best for night time for COC, especailly in these type systems. When close to land radar is far superior to sats to determine location.
1626. 7544
looks like the baha wave and 97l will stay way east off of so fla may get a tap of showers from time to time so far no threat
1627. geepy86
wow,I think the trolls have formed an army. Back to lurking.
Quoting IKE:


Looks like 97L is about gone. Time for 98L in the Bahamas...



agreed, looks like some organization by the Bahamas is taking place as well.
1629. centex
No loop on Punta Cana Radar?
Quoting centex:
Are there any radar loops, they are best for night time for COC, especailly in these type systems. When close to land radar is far superior to sats to determine location.

Punta Cana Radar
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That person was kidding, you really need to lighten up

That is some advice from me to you that I hope you take

i was kidding on the last one lmao
1632. centex
got loop thanks, had to guess what loop meant on this sight.
Quoting geepy86:
wow,I think the trolls have formed an army. Back to lurking.


Definitely true there... the last 2 pages are just... painful.
It looks like 97L has been de-activated (again). 00Z models are not being ran on it tonight which is why it looks like it will be scrubbed soon, possibly 98L or wait.. maybe 95L? lol
Quoting reedzone:
It looks like 97L has been de-activated (again). 00Z models are not being ran on it tonight which is why it looks like it will be scrubbed soon, possibly 98L or wait.. maybe 95L? lol

They take a little while to run
Quoting btwntx08:

i was kidding on the last one lmao


sure you were

either way lets move on, there aint much going on with 97L. I have joined the RIP camp officially. Part of the energy from 97L will be entrained into the Bahamas area, actually it already is.
1637. geepy86
Quoting jeffs713:


Definitely true there... the last 2 pages are just... painful.

agreed
.
brb gonna get some food lol
1640. centex
Sat and the Punta radar do not jive. Radar image looks very old.
Evening all........RIP camp......LOL
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


sure you were

either way lets move on, there aint much going on with 97L. I have joined the RIP camp officially. Part of the energy from 97L will be entrained into the Bahamas area, actually it already is.


After days of keeping it going, it looks like it is already absorbing into a extratropical looking disturbance, not saying it's extra tropical, but it does look like 90L when it was in developing in Florida. I will now declare after days of keeping it going, 97L Rest In Peace.

HOWEVER.. They might do the same thing they did with 90L and re-tag 97L in the Bahamas, so we'll see. I don't see 97L becoming the dominate feature I thought it would.. Again, we'll see.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


sure you were

either way lets move on, there aint much going on with 97L. I have joined the RIP camp officially. Part of the energy from 97L will be entrained into the Bahamas area, actually it already is.

am just cranky thats why i'll be back gonna get some food lol
Quoting centex:
Sat and the Punta radar do not jive. Radar image looks very old.

They are old. The time stamp is 11:00
Hi Reed.......hows it going buddy....
Quoting centex:
Sat and the Punta radar do not jive. Radar image looks very old.

They are old. The time stamp is 11:00
1647. centex
I guess punta is too far east of COC.
Quoting centex:
Sat and the Punta radar do not jive. Radar image looks very old.


Hmm, San Juan long range doesn't show anything except the extreme outer fringes of 97L, and last I checked, the Jamaican radar was not working.

Your only option is to use the various satellites available at the NHC website, or use surface observations.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Hi Reed.......hows it going buddy....


Not bad, it's been an interesting start to the week. How about you?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening all........RIP camp......LOL

sure is...looking forward for that bahamas disturbance to turn into somthing hopefully
i'm sorry but what is a troll, what does Imao & Roftl mean? new here!
Quoting btwntx08:

sure is...looking forward for that bahamas disturbance to turn into somthing hopefully


You and i seen that last nite coming together.
Quoting IKE:


Looks like 97L is about gone. Time for 98L in the Bahamas...

don't see the Bahama blob forming. Just a rain maker as it gets carried away.
Quoting reedzone:


Not bad, it's been an interesting start to the week. How about you?


If we ever getting a named storm....this blog will be a site for a comedy sketch.
Quoting TampaSpin:


If we ever getting a named storm....this blog will be a site for a comedy sketch.
At that time hopefully the blog police will step in if the circus continues.
Quoting hunkerdown:
don't see the Bahama blob forming. Just a rain maker as it gets carried away.


Several models have something forming still in the Bahamas, what has changed that is making so many skeptical now?
the ENSO Wrap-Up is updated


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
1658. centex
With limited real time data I still would say this is not going to cross over whole land mass western DR or Haiti at this time. Looks like come out south of Cuban eastern tip after partial land interaction.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Several models have something forming still in the Bahamas, what has changed that is making so many skeptical now?
If you remember, I was doubting the models all along.
Yeah, unless convection sustains over mountainous territory, I am FINALLY joining the RIP camp for 97L. Though if the circulation makes it into the Bahamas, feed me crow baby!
I would not be surprised to see Invest 97L again in the morning north of Haiti..

I feel i'm making a big mistake by doing this, but eventually somethings gotta form extratropical or tropical out of this whole mess!
Quoting hunkerdown:
If you remember, I was doubting the models all along.


yea I know, but the models have been in a very good concensus for days now and that energy will be in place

this type of development is very common for July
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Several models have something forming still in the Bahamas, what has changed that is making so many skeptical now?


I guess coming from Adrian that this whole thing will be extratropical got to me, I mean, he does have a degree in MET. It also looks like the beginnings of 90L when it was extratropical, hitting Florida (not in the Bahamas). Though I still am predicting at least a Subtropical Storm at best.
1663. 7544
almost time for 97l to wake up now in part 7 of this chapter . will we see a big red ball in the area of the bahaamas tonight into tomorow as it tries to make a nother bid ?
1664. amd
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Several models have something forming still in the Bahamas, what has changed that is making so many skeptical now?


for me, its the formation of the upper level low. With the upper level low, shear will be higher in the Bahamas than previously advertised, and if a low would form, it would be weakly baroclinic (sp?) in nature.

In fact, if it was late January instead of late July, I would say that the possibility of a noreaster forming is good.
CMC's global integration is fairly famous for strong convective feedback problems. What happens is that the model overgenerates convection. In the model world, this increases mid and low level ascent and amplifies surface convergence, hence voritcity, and feeds further the convective process. Not to say its always out to lunch. Given the evident merger of 97 and 98, the large extent of convection is likely yo induce a surface trof, and a runaway isn't out of the question, given favorable SST and the decreasing shear in the environment.
1666. centex
I've not seen any data which shows current location and direction. This is what I meant by limited real time data. Sat does not work in this situation.
1333. Drakoen 1:00 AM GMT on July 22, 2009
The upper level low over Florida will stick around over Florida for the next 24 hours then slowly move eastward and weaken into an upper level trough as the 200mb geopotential heights increase.


That is what Drak posted earlier, the ULL wont be a ULL for long
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yea I know, but the models have been in a very good concensus for days now and that energy will be in place

this type of development is very common for July
I agree that storms have formed in that area this time of year, but I wouldn't say common.



<>img src="" alt="" />
Quoting 7544:
almost time for 97l to wake up now in part 7 of this chapter . will we see a big red ball in the area of the bahaamas tonight into tomorow as it tries to make a nother bid ?

It was pointed out that we could see a ball of convection west of Haiti. Could be wrong though.
1246. HurricaneKing 12:00 AM GMT on July 22, 2009
Link

Looks like the upper level trough is starting to split over Florida with a upper low forming on the southern end with the rest of the trough moving away to the north. This should allow shear to drop over the Bahamas. If a storm is going to form it's got it's chance after the split occurs.


and hurricaneking made this comment as well.
Quoting hunkerdown:
I agree that storms have formed in that area this time of year, but I wouldn't say common.



someone posted earlier that it has been quite common the last 5 years

Cristobal last season, Alex in 2004, Beryl in 2006, Chantal in 2007, basically we have had one development at the end of July each year for the last 5 years basically
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


someone posted earlier that it has been quite common the last 5 years

Cristobal last season, Alex in 2004, there were a few others I dont remember, but basically we have had one development at the end of July each year for the last 5 years basically
41 storms over the last ten days of July over the past 123 years would not fall under common. It doesn't take a statistics expert to figure that out.
Well, I'm going to make my exit for the night. Should be back late tomorrow morning. Have a good night you all and I wish the best luck and wishes to Hispanola tonight and for all of you.
1674. centex
Looks like NHC not even watching, the curent 48 hour potential has southern circle hundreds of miles old. Storm not moving that fast.



Quoting hunkerdown:
41 storms over the last ten days of July over the past 123 years would not fall under common. It doesn't take a statistics expert to figure that out.


Its also happened 4 times in the last 5 seasons in this region, we also had Franklin in this area in 2005 but he was solely from a tropical wave. Also TD #7 in 2003, 2002 had Arthur on July 14th off the east coast

so for each of the last 7 seasons we have seen development in the 2nd half of July off the SE Coast.
Quoting centex:
Looks like NHC not even watching, the curent 48 hour potential has southern circle hundreds of miles old. Storm not moving that fast.





no it is in the right spot for where it was at 8pm
1678. centex
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


no it is in the right spot for where it was at 8pm
PR 8PM?
1679. centex
Quoting centex:
PR 8PM?
And it's suppose to be 48 hour potential.
Quoting centex:
And it's suppose to be 48 hour potential.


I am confused as to what you are asking

97L was between PR and DR at 8pm, the circle is in the right spot as far as I know

also the 48 hours is in terms of potential for development, not where it will go in 48 hours
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Its also happened 4 times in the last 5 seasons in this region, we also had Franklin in this area in 2005 but he was solely from a tropical wave. Also TD #7 in 2003, 2002 had Arthur on July 14th off the east coast

so for each of the last 7 seasons we have seen development in the 2nd half of July off the SE Coast.
vanilla - chocolate :)
1682. centex
Quoting centex:
And it's suppose to be 48 hour potential.
It's a joke and shows how behind they are for this graphics.
Quoting centex:
It's a joke and shows how behind they are for this graphics.


they arent behind on the graphic at all
Quoting TampaSpin:


You and i seen that last nite coming together.

yep lol
1685. K8eCane
hi everybody
just got home and checking on the bahamian blob
1686. centex
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I am confused as to what you are asking

97L was between PR and DR at 8pm, the circle is in the right spot as far as I know

also the 48 hours is in terms of potential for development, not where it will go in 48 hours
I thought it was potential dev in next 48 hours. Don't understand why they would want to show something else.
Quoting K8eCane:
hi everybody
just got home and checking on the bahamian blob


Just a broad area of circualation......nothing at the surface YET!
Quoting centex:
I thought it was potential dev in next 48 hours. Don't understand why they would want to show something else.


the circle indicates where the area of interest is, the color of the circle indicates the level of chance it has to become a tropical system within 48 hours
1689. K8eCane
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just a broad area of circualation......nothing at the surface YET!


thank ya!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just a broad area of circualation......nothing at the surface YET!


I am watching the area just east of the Central Bahamas though; right around 26N 74.5W
Taken the Waverunners out tomorrow.....hope the bay is a little bumpy......it makes life fun!
i refuse to join the rip camp until the last cloud has disappeared for at least a few hours... after seeing 97l reduced to a naked swirl and every single person that was still online declaring it dead, only to wake and find it alive and looking better than ever.
1693. centex
The graphic states area of potential dev in 48 hour. I don't think at 8pm there was any potential south of PR. That was already east of COC. Point is don't rely on this for area of 48 hour potential.
Quoting frostynugs:
i refuse to join the rip camp until the last cloud has disappeared for at least a few hours... after seeing 97l reduced to a naked swirl and every single person that was still online declaring it dead, only to wake and find it alive and looking better than ever.


Actually it was just the opposite.....Most did not think it was dead.....just a few thought was done.
Quoting centex:
The graphic states area of potential dev in 48 hour. I don't think at 8pm there was any potential south of PR. That was already east of COC. Point is don't rely on this for area of 48 hour potential.


No you are misunderstanding the graphic. The circle isnt telling you where the development will occur in 48 hours, the circle is only showing you were that system is now.

Also that circle outlines the entire system, not just exactly where the COC is. The COC might have been where you say, but 97L encompasses the whole area within that circle.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually it was just the opposite.....Most did not think it was dead.....just a few thought was done.


at the time i was online, everyone was saying it was gone (this was late last night, few were online)
Hi all! Another season is upon us. I see some familiar handles. Enjoy your blogs as usual. Looks like things are picking up in the tropics.
1698. centex
OK, I get it. We have no graphic from NHC where storm may develop in 48 hours. Great, I feel better now. I would suggest they not label it 48 hour potential but label it where something may come from and develop in another area which we have no idea.
Quoting centex:
OK, I get it. We have no graphic from NHC where storm may develop in 48 hours. Great, I feel better now. I would suggest they not label it 48 hour potential but label it where something may come from and develop in another area which we have no idea.


Why are you nitpicking this? That map is of great use to everyone, most people I have run into love the map as long as you know how to read it.

If you want to know where this system will be in 48 hours, check the forecast models, that is where the NHC gets that part of it anyway.
Also if you look at their outlook that goes with that map, they tell you which direction the area of interest is going and in most cases what areas will be affected by rains coming from the area of interest as well.

97L is moving WNW between 20-25mph right now
1701. centex
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Why are you nitpicking this? That map is of great use to everyone, most people I have run into love the map as long as you know how to read it.

If you want to know where this system will be in 48 hours, check the forecast models, that is where the NHC gets that part of it anyway.
Ok, I just think counter productive in this situation and is not helpful. I'm looking for improved stuf not out dated crap.
Quoting centex:
Ok, I just think counter productive in this situation and is not helpful. I'm looking for improved stuf not out dated crap.


It isnt outdated lol, their next TWO comes out in less than an hour

how is it outdated? I really dont understand what the gripe is about.
THERE IS AN AREA FLARING UP TONIGHT AROUND 50W. IS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE?
hmmm? I'm getting a 'Data Execution Prevention' (DEP) error on the NHC/NOAA site when trying to run SAT or RADAR loops.

Any ideas?
1705. centex
Quoting centex:
Ok, I just think counter productive in this situation and is not helpful. I'm looking for improved stuf not out dated crap.
Look at this, no relation to graghic in question. Its 24 hour. This to me is all sloppy and shows a total lack of diligence. If even folks like use don't complain nobody will.

You say this is future location and not current location where system may come from? Why not eastern tip of Cuba, how could they do that?
Quoting Elena85Vet:
hmmm? I'm getting a 'Data Execution Prevention' (DEP) error on the NHC/NOAA site when trying to run SAT or RADAR loops.

Any ideas?


Not sure, I am not having that issue
Quoting centex:
Look at this, no relation to graghic in question. Its 24 hour. This to me is all sloppy and shows a total lack of diligence. If even folks like use don't complain nobody will.

You say this is future location and not current location where system may come from? Why not eastern tip of Cuba, how could they do that?


you have me all confused

That map shows the areas in which development could occur over the next 24 hours, it is different than the other map
1709. centex
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


you have me all confused

That map shows the areas in which development could occur over the next 24 hours, it is different than the other map
Do you thing 0 chance of some on storm track between cuba and Haiti? How can they leave that out?
Ok let me see if I can explain this right

The first map you showed indicates where the area of interests are, there are two of them. It shows where they are currently. The yellow indicates they have less than a 30% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours. That graphic in no way deals with future location of where that system will develop. However the NHC puts out many more graphics and gives you plenty of information that tells you were these areas of interest are going

The 2nd map you showed indicates where in the Atlantic basin development is possible within the next 24 hours.

So the first map is specific to the likelihood of development, the second map is specific to where the develop is more likely to occur.
Apparently no one else either. I was lurking earlier and others were posting radar/sat links. I couldn't open them and thought my antivirus was blocking WU. So I went directly to NHC and have the same issue. I didn't have the issue last couple of years. It's obviously my computer. Running XP with service pack 3, IE8.

Thanks anyway.
Quoting centex:
Do you thing 0 chance of some on storm track between cuba and Haiti? How can they leave that out?


based on the current steering yes it is basically a zero percent chance that formation would occur between Haiti and Cuba

1713. centex
I give up. I will just point out next time storm develops outside the chance area. Just drives me nuts when I see graphics where storm has no chance and they leave out possible area.
Quoting centex:
I give up. I will just point out next time storm develops outside the chance area. Just drives me nuts when I see graphics where storm has no chance and they leave out possible area.


Those graphics get updated all the time as conditions change.

I give up too, you are nitpicking, the NHC does a great job giving us all the information possible
oh and one more thing, a storm almost never forms outside of the area the NHC outlines. Those graphics change all the time, if the NHC gets an indication that they need to change the graphic they will.

Dont worry they got it all covered.
...Interesting, how long dust remains aloft.

China dust cloud circled globe in 13 days


Image and article source, Thomson Reuters.

The article does not mention the effect on tropical systems but thought it worth a mention on the blog for general consideration. This dust cloud formed in 2007 but analysis has just been completed.
They're just areas of interest that's all.
Something they feel they/we need to keep an eye on.
1718. centex
Are we making landfall about now?
Quoting centex:
Are we making landfall about now?


is what making landfall?

97L? yea its making landfall now, the NHC says in the TWO what areas will receive what conditions tonight and tomorrow.
Ideas on next TWO?
1721. centex
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


is what making landfall?

97L? yea its making landfall now, the NHC says in the TWO what areas will receive what conditions tonight and tomorrow.
Yes, is there another invest I might be confusing it with?
Quoting centex:
Yes, is there another invest I might be confusing it with?


nope 97L is the only invest out there at this point, althought it looks like it will be deactivated soon

Quoting Magicchaos:
Ideas on next TWO?


I will say still 2 yellow circles, 97L looks like it will be deactivated soon, but they may keep the circle up for it due to its effects on Hispaniola
Ideas on next TWO?


Same IMO.


It "appears" that 97L has made landfall west of Santo Domingo, possibly west of the Cordillera Central mountains. And, for the 3rd night in a row, now seems to be gaining convection again even as it moves over land, mostly due to the widely moist atmospheric environment. The southwesterly shear from the system's west is actually aiding ventilation, perpetuating lift and consequently rotation. The higher peaks to its east is blocking what was a rich outflow towards the trough and allowing convection on the neast side to finally wrap more around the coc, which it has had trouble closing all along.

The Cordillera (includes not just Pico Duarte, the Caribbean's highest mountain, but the next three highest peaks as well. Known locally as the Dominican Alps, the mountain range defies tropical stereotypes by featuring sometimes freezing temperatures in winter, especially at night in the highest elevations.) mtns in the low area of the San Juan Valley that runs for 60 miles seast to nwest, and between the Sierra de Neyba mtn range with lower peaks further west.

Now, I may be crazy, but I've seen some crazy things following these storms. It continues to move wnw or nwest and a similar, congruent path could take it through the San Juan Valley, protecting it from the volitale, upper level shear and allow the coc to wrap convection around the coc.

The big question is, can it survive the 60 mile track across and back into open water for refueling? I don't know. Probably not - it's looked better; but, it's certainly been a fighter. At the good clip forward it has moved previously it may be possible, especially through until Dmax (although lift acts differently over land at night).

If it can survive the short track that also puts it back out over warm water a bit further west that could also effect its eventual track back north and neast, getting pulled out by either the Atl trough lifting out or by the approaching Conus trough - no doubt it'll get swept back out to sea at some point. But, that may make the difference in where it effects land - either slipping over the Bahamas, maybe grazing FL's east coast or taking a good whack at the Carolina's on its way back out to sea eventually.

Crazy, huh? Yup, thought so! ;)
1726. centex
I learned a few days ago not to deactivate 97L unless you like crow. NHC been eating it, hope you like the taste. Just joking one morning we will wake up and it will be gone.
Quoting centex:
I learned a few days ago not to deactivate 97L unless you like crow. NHC been eating it, hope you like the taste. Just joking one morning we will wake up and it will be gone.


well yea eventually lol

I hope I helped you understand the graphics, but I do want to say one more thing about them

No graphic or explanation that is used by the NHC explains or deals with everything when it comes to the tropics. They have many graphics they used to show different pieces of information. Add to that the discussions, outlooks and the local discussions, there is plenty of information out there for you to look through regarding everything.

You just have to know what you are looking at, how to look at it and how to piece it all together
C'mon, BAP! I thought sure you'd say I was certifiable! ;)
The reason why the Bahamas disturbance is flaring up is because conditions are now marginal in a small area for development, at least for now. Never thought I'd see 5-10 knots in the Carribean so quick. BAP was correct, if 97L was a day late, we would have been tracking Ana already. An anticyclone has formed with the SA wave and it looks as if it's trying to gain latitude. The anticyclone in the Western Carribean has strengthened, if anything were track towards the Carribean, it would catch that anticyclone and interesting things would happen. Still skeptical on whether the disturbance in the Bahamas will be Extratropical/Subtropical as of right now, maybe the morning will have a better view.
1730. centex
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well yea eventually lol

I hope I helped you understand the graphics, but I do want to say one more thing about them

No graphic or explanation that is used by the NHC explains or deals with everything when it comes to the tropics. They have many graphics they used to show different pieces of information. Add to that the discussions, outlooks and the local discussions, there is plenty of information out there for you to look through regarding everything.

You just have to know what you are looking at, how to look at it and how to piece it all together
Thanks
Quoting reedzone:
The reason why the Bahamas disturbance is flaring up is because conditions are now marginal for development, at least for now. Never thought I'd see 5-10 knots in the Carribean so quick. BAP was correct, if 97L was a day late, we would have been tracking Ana already. An anticyclone has formed with the SA wave and it looks as if it's trying to gain latitude. The anticyclone in the Western Carribean has strengthened, if anything were track towards the Carribean, it would catch that anticyclone and interesting things would happen. Still skeptical on whether the disturbance in the Bahamas will be Extratropical/Subtropical as of right now, maybe the morning will have a better view.


Reed, imo, if anything makes it at all it'll be tropical. If it can't get something started with that mess down there, I think it's all going to get swept up and out of here in a big hurry. That and 2 cents and you still can't buy a cup of coffee! ;)
Quoting reedzone:
The reason why the Bahamas disturbance is flaring up is because conditions are now marginal in a small area for development, at least for now. Never thought I'd see 5-10 knots in the Carribean so quick. BAP was correct, if 97L was a day late, we would have been tracking Ana already. An anticyclone has formed with the SA wave and it looks as if it's trying to gain latitude. The anticyclone in the Western Carribean has strengthened, if anything were track towards the Carribean, it would catch that anticyclone and interesting things would happen. Still skeptical on whether the disturbance in the Bahamas will be Extratropical/Subtropical as of right now, maybe the morning will have a better view.

We probably will not see anything with the SA wave. The nhc says the convection is displaced from the wave axis
BTW the UKMET develops a NON-Tropical/Extratropical system off the East Coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/09072200/59.html
Quoting reedzone:
BTW the UKMET develops a NON-Tropical/Extratropical system off the East Coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/09072200/59.html


Could be, but that CONUS trough is coming off at good clip! One thing's for sure, there's a TON of energy and it's gotta go somewhere!
Same story, different day :)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220605
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING PRIMARILY OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DO NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
1735. LOL. Respect for the NHC, but they honestly don't know either - it's weather, and that is one big mess colliding down there!
1737. centex
The distance from both AOI in getting wider. So not in camp where 97L dissipates or only aids Bahama wave. My guess is 97L will look impressive in morn between Cuba and Haiti, sorry the area with 0 chance.
Quoting centex:
The distance from both AOI in getting wider. So not in camp where 97L dissipates or only aids Bahama wave. My guess is 97L will look impressive in morn between Cuba and Haiti, sorry the area with 0 chance.


Yup, kind of what I'm thinking too. Maybe not so impressive and maybe not so much west either. Haven't looked at a shear map, but I know it was supposed to drop substantially at some point - for a little while and then pick back up I think.
The distance from both AOI in getting wider. So not in camp where 97L dissipates or only aids Bahama wave. My guess is 97L will look impressive in morn between Cuba and Haiti, sorry the area with 0 chance.


Centex- I don't know where you are getting "0 chance"?

The NHC is giving your theory a less than 30% chance. That's not zero.
Quoting centex:
The distance from both AOI in getting wider. So not in camp where 97L dissipates or only aids Bahama wave. My guess is 97L will look impressive in morn between Cuba and Haiti, sorry the area with 0 chance.

I was saying this earlier also. I believe that Weather456 had this same opinion
UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DO NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


so reading between the lines... they think it might do something on friday?
1742. centex
The historical forecast of potential has moved over Haiti and DR. This is the latest data. I'm learning to hate this data.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
C'mon, BAP! I thought sure you'd say I was certifiable! ;)


I thought you was a TROLL.......ROFLMAO
I have made a few changes and have updated my blog of anyone would like to view... Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


I thought you was a TROLL.......ROFLMAO

LOL, TS! You know better. Don't like my theory, huh? That's cool - I don't like it either! ;)
1746. centex
Does anyone think there is a chance of developent in next 48 hour over DR? Or does anyone think and system currently over eastern DR will form some where? It proves my point, they are not carefully doing this.
Tampaspin

Your blog got a lil' heavier since I last saw it. Looks good.
Quoting centex:
Does anyone think there is a chance of developent in next 48 hour over DR? Or does anyone think and system currently over eastern DR will form some where? It proves my point, they are not carefully doing this.


They're being careful - smart folks, but they do make mistakes. Nothing has developed, it's a huge mess; but rest assured they're watching it very closely and leaving the "possible" signs up.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:

LOL, TS! You know better. Don't like my theory, huh? That's cool - I don't like it either! ;)


You may not know weather.......but you can see a DEM 10 miles from site......LMAO
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Tampaspin

Your blog got a lil' heavier since I last saw it. Looks good.


Thanks.....scared to ask this but, which one....
1751. centex
I don't think a forecast mistake, I would understand that. It's a mistake on current data and I think real bad form. Maybe smoothng of prior mistakes.
Good morning all!

Hey MLC or TS, may either one of you fine gentlemen please tell me by potentially when will this present Hurricane Season finally pick up in earnest?

Thanks in advance, y'all.
Thanks.....scared to ask this but, which one....


Holy cow, there's more than one? LOL

Actually I was refering to the one that comes up when I click your handle.
1754. Nikko
Wow, look at how they drive scooters! The kid is barely sitting and can fall anytime.

Quoting LightningCharmer:
...Interesting, how long dust remains aloft.

China dust cloud circled globe in 13 days


Image and article source, Thomson Reuters.

The article does not mention the effect on tropical systems but thought it worth a mention on the blog for general consideration. This dust cloud formed in 2007 but analysis has just been completed.
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Thanks.....scared to ask this but, which one....


Holy cow, there's more than one? LOL

Actually I was refering to the one that comes up when I click your handle.


You have mail to explain......
1756. centex
This thing going to exit Haiti and look bad in morn. I don't understand no chance in this area, would understand low chance due to shear. I wondered if 97L with shear and mountains would be it's final resting place, I don't think that late tonight. We will need to wakeup with 97L again.
TS, and I know weather too - maybe not like some of the gurus. But, look at the water vapor, what I'm saying in #1725 is what is happening as we speak.

Weather isn't that hard, just friction and pressure.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
TS, and I know weather too. I can tell you, look at the water vapor, what I'm saying in #1725 is what is happening as we speak.

Weather isn't that hard, just friction and pressure.


Just teasin......you know weather to the best of them on this blog.....You got a great eye end very observant...
TS, that dayumed 97L has been a fighter. I don't think it's gonna give up until it gets labeled Ana, friend.

Do you remember anything quite like this one?
Quoting Acemmett90:

agreed look at this over the bahamas its walking up after its wedding night with 97L
What is happening between 97L and the Bahama was a hunch I had this morning.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
TS, that dayumed 97L has been a fighter. I don't think it's gonna give up until it gets labeled Ana, friend.

Do you remember anything quite like this one?


Not many survive this long under 30-40kts of shear.....kinda crazy really...Seen the shear coming 3 days ago....many thought i was crazy saying 97L was toast and it should have been by now......unreal.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not many survive this long under 30-40kts of shear.....kinda crazy really...Seen the shear coming 3 days ago....many thought i was crazy saying 97L was toast and it should have been by now......unreal.


Yup, I hear ya. By most accounts it would have been ***poofed*** already! Only thing I can figure is 97L has had an unusally strong lower mid-level coc and getting tops blown off didn't effect it too much. Plus, it never really had much convergence except for today maybe to create good lift and truly ventilate. Strange this has been for sure.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Yup, I hear ya. By most accounts it would have been ***poofed*** already! Only think I can figure is 97L has had an unusally strong lower mid-level coc and getting tops blown off didn't effect it too much. Plus, it never really had much convergence except for today maybe to create good lift and truly ventilate. Strange this has been for sure.


I think the Shear was occurring at the very high levels and was not effecting much at the mid levels which was where the most energy of 97L was living......Also it was riding in between the ridge to the north and the south which helped also.....
The mess that was in the Bahamas is already lifting out - just gonna be the lil bad _ s_ left down there!
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
The mess that was in the Bahamas is already lifting out - just gonna be the lil bad _ s_ left down there!


Hum don't know if its really lifting out...the whole mess is surrounded by 2 ULL! One off the East Coast of Florida and the other to its NE....
going nite nite........see ya MLC and everyone! NITE!
good morning everyone looks like 97 rammed right into hispanola. notice you dont have to have a hurricane to transfer energy poleward
One question:

At this point once it passed Hispagnola 97L can tranformer into a TD or TS?

1769. crownwx
Crown Weather Tropical Weather Discussion: Link

Crown Weather's Full Tropical Weather Page: Link
dr masters said on his blog it can turn into a td around n car. but i doubt it. the moisture is on a conveyor belt north.
Thanks for the blog update 456
1773. WxLogic
Good morning...
The ECMWF shows unfavorable conditions in the Caribbean for the rest of July.
Good Morning Everyone

So what is going on with our wave & unvest today? is 97L still hanging on despite the R.I.P'ing and has the low formed yet out by the Bahamas an is it still going to form?
1776. WxLogic
This was what I was afraid off... I hope the news of flooding won't be too bad in DR/Haiti. 97L broke into pieces and they're all basically through Hispaniola causing continuous rains on the S, C, and W parts.
Morning all...

The Cotillion household has mostly now recovered from the spot of piggie flu, and all in good order!

Weather here... same as it has been for 2 weeks. Same for the next 2 weeks. Cool, on and off showers, with a bit of sunshine streaming through on sporadic occasions.

Getting bored of low 60s by now. Heat please!

And on the tropical front, seems not much has changed... still tracking invests battling the elements. Any longer of this, and it'll have enough duration to be adapted into an American sitcom series...
contillion glad to hear you made it piggie land. still squealing like one? coughie?
Quoting leftovers:
contillion glad to hear you made it piggie land. still squealing like one? coughie?


Nope, all is fine.. no effects at all.

And I never squeal like a pig thank you very much...
strange flu for older folks. say reports i read said some of us were exposed to a similiar virus back in the 60s. as a result this strain thats going around isnt as bad. some bloggers from australia said their kids sound like pigs squealing snorting and coughing.
Bahamas disturbance looks like a weak TS or STS, but it doesn't seem to have a LLC, which would keep it from becoming a storm. Should be interesting to watch develop today and tomorrow as the disturbance has a good appearance right now.
1783. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
1784. IKE
That NHC TWO sounds like a rerun.

Latest GFS backed off on development east of NC. Now shows a low developing east of the New England coast.

Latest ECMWF has a minor low east of New England.

Maybe a non-tropical low associated with the trough/cold front in the eastern USA.

52 days down
131 to go.......

1785. cg2916
Hey, everyone. Looks like 97L got it's battering, now only a giant convection blob. Has anyone noticed the conection between 97L and our Bahama area? Looks like a Fujiwhara effect going on. ALso, Weather456, can you give me your chances for development of these systems? I would appreciate that very much.
1786. IKE
Quoting cg2916:
Hey, everyone. Looks like 97L got it's battering, now only a giant convection blob. Has anyone noticed the conection between 97L and our Bahama area? Looks like a Fujiwhara effect going on. ALso, Weather456, can you give me your chances for development of these systems? I would appreciate that very much.


I'll give you mine...which mean little...

0% for 97L.
10% for the other blob.
1787. cg2916
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Bahamas disturbance looks like a weak TS or STS, but it doesn't seem to have a LLC, which would keep it from becoming a storm. Should be interesting to watch develop today and tomorrow as the disturbance has a good appearance right now.

Looks like a sheared blob now. Not very organized.
Quoting IKE:


I'll give you mine...which mean little...

0% for 97L.
10% for the other blob.


Hi IKE,

I see they retired your son.
Deserved
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning all...

The Cotillion household has mostly now recovered from the spot of piggie flu, and all in good order!

Weather here... same as it has been for 2 weeks. Same for the next 2 weeks. Cool, on and off showers, with a bit of sunshine streaming through on sporadic occasions.

Getting bored of low 60s by now. Heat please!

And on the tropical front, seems not much has changed... still tracking invests battling the elements. Any longer of this, and it'll have enough duration to be adapted into an American sitcom series...


HI Cotillion!! Good morning all...glad everyone is better..:) That piggie flu is a big booger! Good to see you..:)
Quoting cg2916:

Looks like a sheared blob now. Not very organized.


It looks better in my opinion then yesterday and shear is down to 20 knots.
good morning we still have two yellow marks on the map.
The northward flank of that tropical wave that moved into the America will have to be monitored ecause, conditions will be very favorable development. This is the WRF/NAM models shows possible coleascence occuring by the time it reaches the mid Caribbean. Anything that gets into the Caribbean right will have to be watched
1793. MahFL
Isn't the eastern caribbian the graveyard of tropicl waves ?
Wave near sa is under 5kt shear and will remain under 5 to 10kt for the next 2 to 3 days.
Quoting MahFL:
Isn't the eastern caribbian the graveyard of tropicl waves ?


Temporarily, the whole Caribbean will become a sweet-spot.
1796. 7544
is the blob north of hati now the blow up part of 97l tia Link
Quoting IKE:


I'll give you mine...which mean little...

0% for 97L.
10% for the other blob.


How many times have you killed 97L? :)

Agree there is a low-low chance, but there still appears to be a middle level rotation over Hispaniola in the area of 20N 71W.
Yes,but anything that goes into the gulf was get ripped wrf increases shear there above 30kts.
1799. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


How many times have you killed 97L? :)

Agree there is a low-low chance, but there still appears to be a middle level rotation over Hispaniola in the area of 20N 71W.


I've killed it twice.

I want 97L to go away...see ya...bye...later...next...please...
1800. IKE
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Hi IKE,

I see they retired your son.
Deserved


Yes it was.
1801. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
The northward flank of that tropical wave that moved into the America will have to be monitored ecause, conditions will be very favorable development. This is the WRF/NAM models shows possible coleascence occuring by the time it reaches the mid Caribbean. Anything that gets into the Caribbean right will have to be watched


That's what caught my eye this morning. That wave.
1802. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
The northward flank of that tropical wave that moved into the America will have to be monitored ecause, conditions will be very favorable development. This is the WRF/NAM models shows possible coleascence occuring by the time it reaches the mid Caribbean. Anything that gets into the Caribbean right will have to be watched


Indeed... specially the wave between 48W and 50W. Even though is currently has SAL to its N and W... is not representing a problem yet as it has enough moisture around it and there's some lingering vort energy in the area to spin something up over time.
Quoting IKE:


I've killed it twice.

I want 97L to go away...see ya...bye...later...next...please...


The next one will be the same ole, same ole.
1804. IKE
Morehead City,NC morning discussion on the blob east of the SE USA....

".SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 245 AM WED...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES BY JUST OFF THE COAST. KEPT POPS AT CHANCE WITH
LOWEST WEST TO HIGHEST EAST. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT A DEEP WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH RESUMING CONTROL.".........


I don't see much mention of that blob from the 3 weather offices in the NC/SC areas I looked at.

Looks like it won't develop today or be a major player.

Morning all. I see nothing much has happened overnight. Heard that they may tag it as a new invest pretty soon.
1806. IKE
No new runs since 12Z yesterday on 97L from the GFDL or HWRF.

I sense a deactivation of 97L.
Quoting IKE:


That's what caught my eye this morning. That wave.


Is this the wave that you were talking about?

Quoting Elena85Vet:


Hi IKE,

I see they retired your son.
Deserved



LOL


sorry IKE i could not help it
1809. IKE
Quoting tropicfreak:


Is this the wave that you were talking about?



Yeah.
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.
An anticyclone is right over that wave near SA and has lifted north to 10N.. This does not spell out well, models don't form it, but it could do the unexpected. The Bahamas disturbance looks a bit more tropical this morning, so that will need to be watched. 97L is like I said ti was last night, RIP.
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.


It won't impact Fl. It will probably have an impact on the carolinas.
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.


Too bad? Not if you are property owner in Florida. Insurance rates are high enough already.
1814. 7544
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.


peopel say it should stay off to the est off the coast but things can change by then
Quoting reedzone:
An anticyclone is right over that wave near SA and has lifted north to 10N.. This does not spell out well, models don't form it, but it could do the unexpected. The Bahamas disturbance looks a bit more tropical this morning, so that will need to be watched. 97L is like I said ti was last night, RIP.


Agreed. I can't belive that wave doesn't have model support when it's organized and heading into a favorable environment.
A good shot of Ana before August
Quoting Weather456:
A good shot of Ana before August


Yup. We just need to show some patience, which has been lacked on this blog.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Agreed. I can't belive that wave doesn't have model support when it's organized and heading into a favorable environment.

The Nhc says the convection is displaced from the wave axis.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI


Nice convection starting to pop up.
'mornin' all! :) Hi Doug! Tomorrow is the day, man! :)

I've just loaded up the latest GOES East Infrared imagery into my animation project for July 2009 and was very interested to see how very viscious the shear was on 97L as it moved into the eastern Caribbean.

When I release the video on 8/1/2009, you'll be just as amazed as I am today.
I think i still see a hint of circulation with 97L around 17.7N/72.1W
Too much SAL around the 55w wave

Quoting tropicfreak:


Yup. We just need to show some patience, which has been lacked on this blog.


In my July outlook I said a 60% chance of atleast 1 name storm likely in the the last 2 weeks. By July 10 some said no July storm, and now the models showing some pretty good concensus by July 22. Patience is the virtue but some treat it like a sin. Even if nothing forms for the month, we still had a pretty good chance with 97L on sunday the Bahamian disturbance is to be seen.
1826. GatorWX
Per Atlantic Discussion, the moisture associated with the atl wave is from the itcz. The wave/moisture is looking more and more impressive however. Even given the very favorable conditions in the caribbean, it will take a couple three days to develop. Right now with no surface or even mid level circulation, I wouldn't get too hyped up on this one just yet. Give it a chance, but it's going to take some time to develop if it does. Bahamas disturbance looks like a rainmaker and not much more. Not looking very tropical like at all. Shear is fairly low, 10-20 kts, and with whatever's left of 97L interacting with it, at least feeding it moisture, we could possibly, although a slim chance, see something. Hispanola will likely tear the circulation apart and leave just a broad open wave and help enhance the Bahamas disturbance at best. Our best bet for development in my eyes is the open ocean wave, but as I mentioned, it wont happen overnight. Other than that, all is quiet on the eastern front. Africa is surprisingly inactive at present, although there is a small, not too vigorous wave exiting the coast now it appears. Haven't seen such little activity near Africa in some time now. Have a good day all. Blog is actually pretty quiet too, guess everyone finally let 97 go, lol.
1827. GatorWX
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The Nhc says the convection is displaced from the wave axis.

It is. Associated with itcz.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think i still see a hint of circulation with 97L around 17.7N/72.1W


I think I see it too.
Good Morning.....Fall like lows (around 65) this morning in the Florida Big Bend and the "mess" (the area or interest formerly known as "Ralph")is flowing north from the Antilles.......Not going to happen with this one but as one of the Wonderground pages show, SST's are pretty high around these areas, so, once the sheer dies down, someting will pop up, and blow up, but I don't think is will happen until August sometime.
NO tropical cyclone formation will happen with both of these systems because of the strong upper level winds, anyways looking at the steering components 97L and the blob aren't coming to Florida nor to the Carolinas the steering components which are the upper level winds are going to send these AOI's to sea.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... specially the wave between 48W and 50W. Even though is currently has SAL to its N and W... is not representing a problem yet as it has enough moisture around it and there's some lingering vort energy in the area to spin something up over time.


Yup! Good morning, all.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think i still see a hint of circulation with 97L around 17.7N/72.1W


You can monitor in that general area today using Gitmo Radar
1833. GatorWX
Quoting canesrule1:
NO tropical cyclone formation will happen with both of these systems because of the strong upper level winds, anyways looking at the steering components 97L and the blob aren't coming to Florida nor to the Carolinas the steering components which are the upper level winds are going to send these AOI's to sea.


Shear isn't all that hihgh in Bahamas. In the 10-20 range, but I agree, I don't think it'll develop, but not for that reason.
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:


Nothing is showing up.
Well crownwx made a very excellent point this morning. The system will moving in the same direction as the upper flow so the net shear will be quite low.
Quoting hurricaneben:
Looks like 97L might impact Florida by Thursday or Friday. Too bad this 97L invest can't develop into a tropical cyclone.

You've never been through a hurricane, have you? I can speak from experience (as can many others on here), and it is *not* a fun time (or a good memory).
1838. WxLogic
MJO Arrival Forecast:

1. EWP = July 22nd (Today)
2. GFS = July 22nd (Today)
3. CFS = July 22nd (Today)

All starting from the W Central ATL westward to the GOM.

No aggressive upward motions being forecasted... but upward motion nonetheless.
morning 456
i have been looking at this wave in the catl since yesterday morning. although the upper level winds are now not conducive, the area is showing some form of trying to organise. it is still attached to the ITCZ and needs to break away at the moment it looks to me a suspect area. i need to watch it a little a little more to see if anything evolves
i see some rain here.
good morning, could someone please post the link or tell me where the list of acronym definitions are, tks
Quoting stoormfury:
morning 456
i have been looking at this wave in the catl since yesterday morning. although the upper level winds are now not conducive, the area is showing some form of trying to organise. it is still attached to the ITCZ and needs to break away at the moment it looks to me a suspect area. i need to watch it a little a little more to see if anything evolves


For several reasons I don't see development soon but I'm still watching it.
Quoting Weather456:


Looking better organized, but the NHC will 99% keep it at low and site 'no signs of Surface circulation.'
1845. 606
GOOD MORNING ALL.
The wave off the lesser antilles looks impressive. Is there any information on this wave? Don't want to be caught off guard like I did during carnival Monday in St Lucia, when 97L brought heavy rain and winds of 35mph.

Hurricane Acronyms

Link
1847. IKE
You think being wrong about the weather is limited to us amateurs?

Here's yesterday mornings discussion from Miami,FL. office....

"DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH TODAY. THEN THE FIRST
TROPICAL WAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND WILL ARRIVE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST SECTIONS TO START OUT AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY."



Here's this mornings Miami,FL. discussion....

"/ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009/

"DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
ON TUESDAY IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WAVE IS NOW ONLY CLASSIFIED AS A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA.
"..........


I was saying yesterday morning on here, I didn't think that wave was going to cross Florida.
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hurricane Acronyms

Link



Thank you
Quoting 606:
GOOD MORNING ALL.
The wave off the lesser antilles looks impressive. Is there any information on this wave? Don't want to be caught off guard like I did during carnival Monday in St Lucia, when 97L brought heavy rain and winds of 35mph.



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE GUIANAS INTO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLANDS BY 30-36 HRS. IT IS TO THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH 66-72 HRS.
ACROSS THE GUIANAS IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10M/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. AS IT ENTERS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS/ORINOCO
DELTA REGION IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-50MM. OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH...IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. A WIND SURGE OF 30-45KT IS TO ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
60/72 HRS.
1850. IKE
Quoting IKE:
You think being wrong about the weather is limited to us amateurs?

Here's yesterday mornings discussion from Miami,FL. office....

"DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH TODAY. THEN THE FIRST
TROPICAL WAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND WILL ARRIVE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST SECTIONS TO START OUT AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY."



Here's this mornings Miami,FL. discussion....

"/ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009/

"DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
ON TUESDAY IS BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WAVE IS NOW ONLY CLASSIFIED AS A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. MOST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA.
"..........


I was saying yesterday morning on here, I didn't think that wave was going to cross Florida.



Here's what me, the amateur, said yesterday....

"109. IKE 10:19 AM CDT on July 21, 2009
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

"UPDATE...
THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION AT AT 5 TO 10 MPH
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS."

.........I don't really see it moving toward SE FL. right now."

Thank you....***pats self on back***
at this time the buoys do not show any surface circulation
new blog
1853. WxLogic
1850. IKE...

LOL... are you fighting with yourself!!!
1854. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:
1850. IKE...

LOL... are you fighting with yourself!!!


Looks like I'm saying I'm Mr. Stud...but I ain't.

On to a new blog!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Too bad? Not if you are property owner in Florida. Insurance rates are high enough already.


UGGGG. I seen on the news last night that property taxes are going up 14% and State Farm wants to raise their rates by 40% to come back to Florida. Anyone looking to buy a house in the near future in Florida should probably wait until this property tax and insurance mess shakes down. It could really impact your affordability.
Wind shear is now Marginal over the Bahamas Disturbance. Wind shear is also finally decreasing there as well. Tomorrow, could be a good day for development.