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97L Close to Tropical Depression Status; Category 4 Megi Hammers Taiwian

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:08 PM GMT on September 27, 2016

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands late on Tuesday morning (Invest 97L) was headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph, and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later on Tuesday. Satellite loops late Tuesday morning showed 97L did not yet have a well-defined surface circulation, though it appeared close to establishing one. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best, but upper-level outflow was very well established to 97L’s north. Aiding development was moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and warm ocean waters of 29.5°C (85°F). Significant negatives for development included the storm’s forward speed of 15 - 20 mph, which was too fast for the storm to get itself properly aligned in the vertical, plus dry air. The 8 am EDT Tuesday SHIPS model output analyzed 55% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere over 97L, which is lower than optimal for tropical cyclone formation. The 12Z (8 am EDT) Tuesday balloon sounding from Trinidad, 500 miles to the west of 97L, showed several bands of dry air with humidities below 40% located between 618 mb and 300 mb in altitude. Water vapor satellite loops showed 97L was butting into a region of dry air that lay just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Lack of spin from being too close to the equator was less of a problem for 97L than before, as the system had worked its way northwards to a latitude of 12°N. This is far enough from the equator for the storm to be able to leverage the Earth’s spin and acquire more spin of its own. The outermost spiral rainband of 97L was bringing rain showers to Barbados late Tuesday morning, as seen on Barbados radar.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Model support for development of 97L over the next day or so remains high. Our top three models for predicting hurricane genesis—the GFS, UKMET and European models—all predicted in their 00Z Tuesday runs that 97L would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between Tuesday and Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 90%. The Hurricane Hunters are in the air, and will investigate the storm on Tuesday afternoon. The next name on the Atlantic list of storm names is Matthew.

Invest 97L will continue west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph through Thursday, then slow down to a forward speed of 5 - 10 mph for the remainder of the week. The outer spiral bands of 97L will begin spreading over the Lesser Antilles Tuesday night, bringing high winds and heavy rains. The core of the storm will pass through the islands on Wednesday afternoon. It is unlikely that 97L will have time to intensify into a hurricane by then, though a strong tropical storm with 55 - 65 mph winds is quite possible. The strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4 - 8” can be expected over the islands just north of where the center of 97L is, including the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles--Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao--on Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and may escape receiving tropical storm winds. However, heavy rains of 2 - 4” can be expected, as predicted by the 06Z (2 am EDT) Tuesday run of the HWRF model.

As 97L passes through the southeastern Caribbean, it will be in an environment somewhat unfavorable for development. The southeast Caribbean is a well-known tropical cyclone graveyard, where scores of healthy-looking storms have died or suffered severe degradation. This is often due to the fact that the southeastern Caribbean is a place where the surface trade winds tend to accelerate, due to the geography and meteorology of the area. A region of accelerating flow at the surface means that air must come from above to replace the air that is being sucked away at the surface. Sinking air from above warms and dries as it descends, creating high pressure and conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclones. In addition, tropical cyclones passing near the coast of South America often suck in dry continental air from the land areas to the south. The last hurricane to pass through the southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane Tomas of 2010, degraded from a Category 1 hurricane to a tropical depression due to high wind shear and dry air as it moved across the region. Recent runs of the SHIPS model are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and some dry air for Thursday and Friday along 97L’s path, and these conditions may interfere with development. In addition, the Tuesday morning 00Z runs of the European and UKMET models predicted that 97L would move slightly south of due west and pass very close to the coast of South America on Friday, which would also inhibit development.





Figure 2. Forecasts from the 00Z Tuesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) had a number of their 70 members predicting a hurricane for late in the week in the Caribbean (light blue dots.) The operational versions of the models, run at higher resolution (red lines), also showed the storm becoming a hurricane by ten days into the future. The European model showed a more westerly track for 97L, with a long-range threat to the Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS model predicted more of a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Long range forecast for 97L
A large upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and settle over the Mid-Atlantic states late this week, and the steering currents associated with this low are expected to be strong enough to pull 97L sharply to the north by the weekend, according to a majority of the Tuesday morning runs of the models. While the sharp right-hand turn in Figure 2 might look implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being Hurricane Hazel (1954). This sharp turn is expected to occur on Friday night or on Saturday, and the exact timing of the turn has huge implications for who experiences the peak wrath of the storm. An earlier turn is being predicted by the GFS model, which would put the Dominican Republic and Haiti in the cross hairs for a direct hit early next week, with a long-range threat to the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast later in the week. The European model and UKMET model forecast a later turn, resulting in Jamaica and Cuba being more at risk of a direct strike early next week, and Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast being at risk later in the week. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 2), the uncertainties are high. 97L is expected to have favorable conditions for intensification this weekend as it heads north towards the islands, with low wind shear, very warm ocean waters, and a very moist atmosphere. The models are quite bullish on this storm being a hurricane when it makes its landfall early next week in the islands.

Ulika forms in the Central Pacific
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Ulika formed on Tuesday morning. Ulika is not expected to threaten any land areas, and is forecast to pass several hundred miles to the southeast of Hawaii early next week as a tropical depression.


Figure 3. Churning waters in the Jhihtan Dam in Xindian district, New Taipei City, as Typhoon Megi hit eastern Taiwan on September 27, 2016. Taiwan went into shutdown on September 27 as the island faced its third typhoon in two weeks, with thousands evacuated, schools and offices closed across the island and hundreds of flights disrupted. Image credit: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images.

Deadly Typhoon Megi slams into Taiwan
Bolting to Category 4 status just before landfall, Typhoon Magi crashed into central Taiwan at full force on Tuesday evening local time. CNN reported least four deaths and more than 300 injuries by late Tuesday, with close to 2.7 million homes without power. Megi’s top winds were assessed at 115 knots (132 mph) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 06Z Tuesday (2:00 am EDT and 2:00 pm local time). Meg plowed ashore near Hualien City, where Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) reported calm winds in the large eye of the typhoon at 1:55 pm local time. See the photo embedded at bottom for a spectacular view of waves smashing into the seawall at Hualien City.

Megi completed an eyewall replacement cycle just before reaching Taiwan, which allowed for a burst of intensification even as it approached the island. At 12Z Tuesday, the JTWC placed Megi’s center in the Taiwan Strait, midway between Taiwan’s west coast and the southeast coast of China (about 50 miles from each). Top sustained winds at 12Z were down to 100 knots (115 mph), making Megi a fast-weakening Category 3. Not surprisingly, Megi’s quick journey across the rugged mountains of Taiwan took a major toll on the integrity of its structure, but Megi will still pack some punch as it sweeps into China as a strong tropical storm or minimal typhoon. Mega is the third major typhoon to affect Taiwan in the last two weeks, following Super Typhoon Meranti (which passed just southwest of the island) and Typhoon Malakas (which passed just to the northeast). Meg’s landfall in southeast China will be close to the area where Meranti claimed at least 29 lives and caused at least $2.6 billion in damage.


Figure 4. Aqua/MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Megi at 0525Z (1:25 am EDT and 1:25 pm local time) Tuesday, September 27, 2016, just as Megi was making landfall in east-central Taiwan. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 5. Rainfall across Taiwan for the calendar day Tuesday, September 27, 2016, up through 10:30 pm local time (10:30 am EDT Tuesday). The scale at right is in millimeters; 100 mm = 3.94 inches. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

It was still too soon on Tuesday morning EDT to assess the full impact of Megi’s assault on Taiwan. Wind gusts above 90 mph were widespread, as reported by weather.com. Sustained winds reached 71 mph with gusts to 99 mph at 2:30 pm local time at Taipei’s Taiyuan International Airport, with a gust to 124 mph recorded at Wuqi on Taiwan’s west coast, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau. Wind damage may be widespread over northeast Taiwan in Yilan County, home to about half a million people. Meg’s path put coastal Yilan County just north of Megi’s large eyewall, and the typhoon’s fierce winds pushed upslope to produce torrential rains in the county’s mountainous western section. A total of 945 mm (37.20”) fell at Taipingshan in western Yilan County from midnight through 10:30 pm local time Tuesday, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau. By late Tuesday, the heaviest rains were wrapping into southwest Taiwan on the south side of Megi’s circulation, where 10” amounts were widespread.


Figure 6. Rainfall amounts topping 10” are possible along and near the coast of southeast China and in far South Korea over the next several days as Megi and its remnants move into China and eventually recurve toward the northeast. Shown above is cumulative precipitation for the six-day period starting at 06Z (2:00 am) Tuesday, September 27, 2016, from the GFS model. The scale at right is in millimeters; 100 mm = 3.94 inches. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com

We will be back this afternoon with an update on 97L and the Pacific storms.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson



Figure 7. James Reynolds says: “Hualien port sea wall taking a beating earlier today as #typhoon #Megi hit #Taiwan.” See the associated video. Image credit: James Reynolds, @EarthUncutTV.


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 482. BayFog:

Latest ECMWF has Hurricane Matthew along the east coast of Florida by Thursday of next week, a westward change from earlier progs.


The 12Z Euro is almost the same as the 00Z Euro. The main difference is the 12Z reaches S. Florida.
If you watch the 00Z Euro the system was moving towards S. Florida at the end of the run. It just ran out of time (240 hours left the system over Cuba).
Quoting 498. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'll eat crow if this goes into the GOM and show it to y'all. By the way I suffer from East Coast Troughiritis.


lol....I think we have a nice collection of crow recipes that have been gathered over the years ;)
97L is decoupled thanks to shear midlevel center is way to the east from the low level center with is moving due west.
Quoting 492. barbamz:

Something to laugh :-)

Joint Cyclone Center: Typhoon #Megi sends a fridge running down the street in Taiwan



This one isn't bad either. (Taiwan Explorer: Video: #TyphoonMegi shows his true power.)
Ahahahaha that is so funny! Someone catch that fridge! #RunawayFridge
12z Euro ensembles are again taking aim towards the gulf and many are stronger as well in the long range.
After taking a short break this afternoon will note the following; it is well known that the Eastern Caribbean is a "graveyard" for tropical storms for many reasons outlined by Dr. M above. So far, 97L is suffering the same fate we have seen in so many promising waves, or struggling tropical storms, for several years now in the "new" graveyard on approach to the Lesser Antilles as well (having problems stacking up).........................Just sayin.




Good Luck..I'll be back later..

Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 11m11 minutes ago

EPS still all over the map when it comes to possible spots for future #Matthew. Pictured is 8 days from now.

240 hrs euro already an hour is gone. dead tree branches its time to start preparing.
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

Of course people on here would be cheering for the Euro to come true because in reality they want a major hurricane to make landfall somewhere along the U.S coastline.They just refuse to come out of the closet with it and instead take their frustrations out on people who are not line line with their thinking.Your fingers are not typing out your true intentions but I can see it behind your actions on here.
What is the matter with a major impacting a city like Miami, Philly, or New York? I like the way nature makes man look stupid, by building all these homes and building on barrier islands, where they should never be in the first place. The follies of man, how stupid of a species we can be.
Quoting 502. hurricanehanna:



lol....I think we have a nice collection of crow recipes that have been gathered over the years ;)
I like mine deep fried with some tabasco. :D
Quoting 506. weathermanwannabe:

After taking a short break this afternoon will note the following; it is well known that the Eastern Caribbean is a "graveyard" for tropical storms for many reasons outlined by Dr. M above. So far, 97L is suffering the same fate we have seen in so many promising waves, or struggling tropical storms, for several years now in the "new" graveyard on approach to the Lesser Antilles as well.........................Just sayin.






And may this trend continue >>>>>>>>>
Poll: Who thinks this is not a Tasmanian tiger?

Link
Quoting 496. Grothar:




I'm glad you're not my surgeon. :)


Quotes by Gro's surgeon: "You should have died around the time of Nero.", "How are you over 1700 and not your own doctor?" "Dirt's as old as you." and finally, "Your prognosis is grim, maybe under 11,000 years left." Long live Grothar!
As for me, im gonna go with what the NHC said about it. And I take my crow scattered and smothered. Grothar, if you are here my adrenaline is running low. Scary pics please.
Quoting 503. Gearsts:

97L is decoupled thanks to shear midlevel center is way to the east from the low level center with is moving due west.



Likely due to its forward speed as well. Will be interesting to see what it's like by the end of the week - all models are pointing towards a hurricane once it gets into more favourable conditions and slows down.
Quoting 503. Gearsts:

97L is decoupled thanks to shear midlevel center is way to the east from the low level center with is moving due west.


I don't believer there is a low level circulation yet, the entire wave is circulating, so we could see that low level circulation form anywhere within the entire wave. i will say this though, the general motion of the storm is WNW, it certainly has a more northerly component to it. Barbados-St.Lucia seem to have dodged a bullet with the worst weather poised to impact Dominica-Guadalupe-Antigua.
Quoting 472. muddertracker:


A wave with a lot of mojo.



Is 12L in a favorable MJO environment?
Or is the EPAC still taking up all the juice.
Quoting 517. K8eCane:

As for me, im gonna go with what the NHC said about it. And I take my crow scattered and smothered. Grothar, if you are here my adrenaline is running low. Scary pics please.


I've been looking for some and can't find any. I'm going to take my nap now. When I wake up I hope I find some good ones.
Quoting 469. ncstorm:

Just wanted to post the Euro map of Cloud Coverage for 97L if the 12z Euro is right..would be a huge storm

Remember, Islanders are first up to face this potential dangerous situation and not the US. Arguing about model runs isn't helpful.


I know you said this, but that storm is is just stupidly large, and sadly both the GFS and Euro are showing that. IF it makes landfall anywhere that size the water pile up would be horrific, and if as strong as the Euro says you could see Katrina's water rise record broken. Hispaniola nor no one anyone else in North America needs that.
Quoting 503. Gearsts:

97L is decoupled thanks to shear midlevel center is way to the east from the low level center with is moving due west.


Economizing size when facing 30k shear isn't a bad strategy.
The northern half has been holding the ropes while the south turns the rudder perhaps.
Consensus is, north wins.
Then there's the astronomical dollar question of whether Miami is prepared.
We may be about to find out.
Looks like the timing and strength of early autumn troughs over the CONUS are what's going to keep people on pins and needles from MS to Bermuda over the next 10 days.
If the current shear out ahead does not moderate a bit over the next 48, it could struggle all the way past Puerto Rico unless it gets on a real groove in the next 12 hours and slips in a well defined coc under that ULAC around 12N: starting to run out of time in the short term IMHO based on these charts.







Quoting 510. NativeSun:

What is the matter with a major impacting a city like Miami, Philly, or New York? I like the way nature makes man look stupid, by building all these homes and building on barrier islands, where they should never be in the first place. The follies of man, how stupid of a species we can be.


I agree that there are places humans simply should not build in- but the problem is a lot of the people living in those places due to work or family reasons are unable to move out- hence in the event of a natural disaster so many innocent people with no way to leave would suffer tremendously and lose their homes etc.
Quoting 488. elioe:



If the W Caribbean hurricane would spin in one place, far away from land, without making landfall anywhere, that would be great. However, I would rather see a major hurricane making landfall in Miami than on Caribbean coastline. USA is a wealthy country. Wealthy enough to build houses and infrastructure capable of withstanding even major hurricanes. Well-organized and systematic society capable of creating evacuation plans for its coastlines. The population does neither live on isolated islands, from which evacuation would be especially difficult. If there's death and destruction from a landfalling major hurricane in USA, it can be generally said to occur due to complacency and saving from wrong place. Not the case in all countries and locations.
Their are a lot of people living on islands and barrier islands in South Florida and the Keys, including my family, but it's pretty stupid that the state lets us do it, but what can you say. Having a major cat 4, or 5, would not be nearly as bad hitting South Florida as most places in the Caribbean or other costal area's of the U.S., but it would still be bad.
Katrina surge record would be real hard to break. Would take a landfall around Tampa or almost exactly where Katrina made landfall. The surge from Katrina was a perfect storm, even with it weakening before landfall. Wouldn't it be something if the E. Caribbean just shreds this possible story into the waste dump of history. Would be the most epic model fail of all time.
The HWRF



The GFS



The GROWRF

Quoting 502. hurricanehanna:



lol....I think we have a nice collection of crow recipes that have been gathered over the years ;)


Prepared crow is a dish you cannot relish unless as consolation for mispredicting a direct hit by a 993mb hurricane.
What winds are those please?
Starting to lose daylight for the vis loops..................On that note, everyone have a safe weather evening but keep an eye on this one until it completely goes away. First stop is the Lesser Antilles with copious rain regardless of short term development prospects. See Yall in the AM.







I guess I'll be having crow for dinner, since I thought 97L would have become at least a tropical depression by today. I have been calling for that since last week around the middle of the week. They teach you in Meteorology School about Tropical Meteorology and how it is one of the hardest to predict, especially cyclogenesis. The trade winds factor might be coming into play here as the more experienced bloggers have noted. Take it from them, some of them live in the islands.
Quoting 495. Patrap:

Its never about anyone's intent or wishing here,..it is always about the actual storm.

Period.








Wise words Pat!
Am I late to the doom party, the Euro showing a Cat 4 parked over my house is definitely interesting. :)
Quoting 529. Grothar:


One heck of a right turn. This should be interesting to see. I have a feeling that right turn is going to be very difficult to forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up E of Bermuda, or in Cozumel...

Quoting 529. Grothar:

The GROWRF



This really gives me the creeps! I hope it doesn't make it to Europe, doh!
:-)



LOL
New run of the GFS started
543. elioe
Quoting 527. NativeSun:

Their are a lot of people living on islands and barrier islands in South Florida and the Keys, including my family, but it's pretty stupid that the state lets us do it, but what can you say. Having a major cat 4, or 5, would not be nearly as bad hitting South Florida as most places in the Caribbean or other costal area's of the U.S., but it would still be bad.


That's why I said: isolated islands. If a major hurricane threatens Key West, people there can be evacuated by car to other parts of Florida. Land transportation is not an option if you want to evacuate the people of Roatan to mainland Honduras, or the people of Isle of Pines to the main island of Cuba.
Quoting 533. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I guess I'll be having crow for dinner, since I thought 97L would have become at least a tropical depression by today. I have been calling for that since last week around the middle of the week. They teach you in Meteorology School about Tropical Meteorology and how it is one of the hardest to predict, especially cyclogenesis. The trade winds factor might be coming into play here as the more experienced bloggers have noted. Take it from them, some of them live in the islands.


the day is not over yet we could still see a TD or TS by tonight we will see by 0z if we have a upgrade if not then it will be wed
I see the the doom of the day has been acknowledged by everyone. Is this actually a likely scenario or is it just a doom of the day?
I think there's a Key Largo movie analog to Matthew.
I just can't find any good scenes of the storm on youtube.
Quoting 541. Bobman50821:




LOL


There must be a joke written on this one too lol
Quoting 536. MiamiHurricanes09:

Am I late to the doom party, the Euro showing a Cat 4 parked over my house is definitely interesting. :)


your late to were to the clean up the after the after party :P
Quoting 503. Gearsts:

97L is decoupled thanks to shear midlevel center is way to the east from the low level center with is moving due west.


It is beginning to look shrimplike.
By the way there is another tropical wave behind 97L that may need to be watched. A nice Cape Verde Couplet. May be the last of the wave train, but we'll see though.

It's always a doom party until the doom arrives. Then it's a collective oh ship party. Hopefully any people planning doom parties in path of 97L will reconsider. Then they can throw a not doomed party for having canceled the doom party. And you get to live man!
552. FOREX
Quoting 545. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

I see the the doom of the day has been acknowledged by everyone. Is this actually a likely scenario or is it just a doom of the day?
Doom of the half a day.The next Doom of the Day for that model will be in 8 hours and will most likely Doom the Bahamas.
Quoting 519. TheDeathStar:


I don't believer there is a low level circulation yet, the entire wave is circulating, so we could see that low level circulation form anywhere within the entire wave. i will say this though, the general motion of the storm is WNW, it certainly has a more northerly component to it. Barbados-St.Lucia seem to have dodged a bullet with the worst weather poised to impact Dominica-Guadalupe-Antigua.


I don't see the the LLC decoupling
97L = garbage again. Not even able to develop east of the islands.
Quoting 533. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I guess I'll be having crow for dinner, since I thought 97L would have become at least a tropical depression by today. I have been calling for that since last week around the middle of the week. They teach you in Meteorology School about Tropical Meteorology and how it is one of the hardest to predict, especially cyclogenesis. The trade winds factor might be coming into play here as the more experienced bloggers have noted. Take it from them, some of them live in the islands.

Shear and dry air have been the bane of them all season.
But Matthew, unfortunately, is modeled to break the mold.
Quoting 420. IDTH:



I would also be a little leary on why models are deamplifying the east trough???
Quoting 450. pablosyn:

I prefer a major hurricane in the W. Caribbean than a major hurricane in Miami. What about you guys? D =


If we're going to discuss our preferences, I prefer a major hurricane in New Orleans.
I don't see that sharp turn north the GFS is showing. I think the trough will not reach down far enough and will retrograde faster than some models show. The only other possibility is the Azores high will weaken and draw 97L more north. It depends on the strength of 97L and if it stays week models will shift farther west to where they started several days ago. These disorganized storms are a real nightmare to forecast.


NEXSAT Navy NRL/JPPS imagery

🌉🌅🎑🌊✌
Quoting 553. boandjoe:



I don't see the the LLC decoupling

They appear to be working in tandem.
Who is calling Doomcon Codes?
Guys I think there is some confusion among us, there is no LLC for there to be decoupling, at least not well defined. If there were we would have a TD right now.
Quoting 560. Chicklit:


They appear to be working in tandem.


Agreed, not seeing any decoupling going on




🌊✌🌅🌉🎑
Quoting 557. LouisPasteur:



If we're going to discuss our preferences, I prefer a major hurricane in New Orleans.


In respect to the 1836 people who died in Louisiana from Katrina, let's not be so flippant with comments such as this.
Quoting 533. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I guess I'll be having crow for dinner, since I thought 97L would have become at least a tropical depression by today. I have been calling for that since last week around the middle of the week. They teach you in Meteorology School about Tropical Meteorology and how it is one of the hardest to predict, especially cyclogenesis. The trade winds factor might be coming into play here as the more experienced bloggers have noted. Take it from them, some of them live in the islands.


I'll be having some as well thought it was a TD last night lol.
Quoting 542. masiello3:

New run of the GFS started
Why waste your time watching it?
Quoting 565. DeepSeaRising:



In respect to the 1836 people who died in Louisiana from Katrina, let's not be so flippant with comments such as this.


Thank you.
97L is struggling with some dry air and Southwesterly wind shear. Which will impede development for awhile. I still believe that a sharp 90 degree northerly turn will not happen like how the models are predicting it to be.

Quoting 535. RavensFan:



Wise words Pat!
 Said pharaoh to Moses?

Quoting 569. Ricki13th:

97L is struggling with some dry air and Southwesterly wind shear. Which will impede development for awhile. I still believe that a sharp 90 degree northerly turn will not happen like how the models are predicting it to be.


Euro to me seems to have a decent handle as it does not develop this system for another 2 days
Quoting 516. Patrap:



West Caribbean might be ready for a wave to relieve its hyperthermia.

For Caribboy's sake, I sure hope something ends up his way!
Better than blistering drought.
Quoting 564. Patrap:





🌊✌🌅🌉🎑

He's growing up. Gonna be Matthew soon.
The mind-boggling New Orleans heat record that no one is talking about

By Angela Fritz

During one of the country’s hottest summers, New Orleans quietly set a mind-boggling record. On 43 nights, the temperature did not drop below 80 degrees in New Orleans, according to the Louisiana state climatologist.

It blows the previous record out of the water — 13 nights in 2010. It’s also incredible considering in an average summer, New Orleans has just 2.1 nights at or above 80 degrees.

This record should be getting much more attention than it has been.


Link
Quoting 569. Ricki13th:

97L is struggling with some dry air and Southwesterly wind shear. Which will impede development for awhile. I still believe that a sharp 90 degree northerly turn will not happen like how the models are predicting it to be.
I think a sharp 90 degree southerly turn to Lake Titicaca is more likely.
Which picture is better for my profile pic?
Link
Link
I will only do it when i get enough opinions.
Quoting 562. masiello3:

Guys I think there is some confusion among us, there is no LLC for there to be decoupling, at least not well defined. If there were we would have a TD right now.

good point.
not decoupling in the literal sense
because it's never been one coc
there are several competing swirls
getting bigger and appearing more defined
so you're probably right
in the sense that it gives only an illusion of decoupling.
don't know....that sounds like physics.
" Very warm overnight temperatures are hard on your body, let alone your utility bills. The elderly are particularly at risk during these times, as is the entire homeless population and anyone with an illness. You might be inclined to raise a finger to mention that air conditioning negates these effects, but around 30 percent of New Orleans’s population lives in poverty. If a family is lucky enough to own an air conditioner, they probably cannot afford to use it.

Why is this happening? In short, man-made climate change. "



The mind-boggling New Orleans heat record that no one is talking about

By Angela Fritz
Yup...we been breaking records here beaucoup.

Its gonna be our hottest September easily .


This was yesterday on their fb page here.

waterspout

Interesting read ...



NASA Is Sinking Into the Ocean
Gizmodo, Maddie Stone, Today 9:00am
In October 2012, just a few days before Hurricane Sandy slammed into New Jersey, it was churning north past the narrow strip of white sand beach separating NASA's most celebrated spaceport from the sea.
For several days and nights, heavy storm surge pounded the shoreline, flattening dunes and blowing sand right up to the launchpads. A stone's throw away from the spot where a Saturn V rocket sent the first humans to the Moon, the ocean took a 100-foot bite out of the beach.
"I think the telling story is that the storm was almost 230 miles offshore, and it still had an impact," Don Dankert, an environmental scientist at NASA, tells me as we stand with ecologist Carlton Hall atop a rickety metal security tower overlooking Space Coast. It is a hot, breathless day, and the surf laps gently at the deserted shore.
"It makes you wonder what would happen if a storm like that came in much closer, or collided with the coast," Dankert adds. ...
[Whole story see link above]

Huh, maybe future Matthew?
Quoting 555. Chicklit:


Shear and dry air have been the bane of them all season.
But Matthew, unfortunately, is modeled to break the mold.



This hasn't been a quiet season, not hyper active, but not inactive. It's been pretty typical from what I have seen.
Quoting 564. Patrap:





🌊✌🌅🌉🎑


That is a beautiful shot
580. Patrap

These numbers out of the Crescent, dovetail nicely with the "Flood with no Name" event , warmer air holds more water.
The weaker it stays the more probable it affects me. Even though I really doubt it reach Central America before doing its turn I would like to see rain like Cariboy even though I know its not likely right now. Anyways the wave that Caleb was showing is the one that the Gfs was developing into Nicole a while ago. I really hope it develops as it throw it out to sea and would help in the ACE department.
Quoting 558. frank727:

I don't see that sharp turn north the GFS is showing. I think the trough will not reach down far enough and will retrograde faster than some models show. The only other possibility is the Azores high will weaken and draw 97L more north. It depends on the strength of 97L and if it stays week models will shift farther west to where they started several days ago. These disorganized storms are a real nightmare to forecast.


It's not so much a 'disorganized storm' as it is an organizing system that has yet to even become a storm. The models are the only thing to go with beyond 3 days, and beyond 5 days are mostly entertainment. Once you actually get genesis, and something with a consolidated center, then you can start paying attention to the GFDL and HWRF and out for 72-120 hours max.
Quoting 584. RobertWC:

580. Patrap

These numbers out of the Crescent, dovetail nicely with the "Flood with no Name" event , warmer air holds more water.


About an hour and fifteen minute. No llc yet, but seems to be working towards developing one.

s ago.

It's got glow.
Bringing rain, wind in large quantity.
GFS still very agressive and started the turn north at 102 hours again earlier then Euro, has it as a Cat 3.


can anyone explain to me why this looks closed on nullschool, but the HH declined to classify it as such? obviously i'll defer to the experts at the NHC, but to the very untrained eye this looks completely closed, albeit weak.
Quoting 582. Jedkins01:



This hasn't been a quiet season, not hyper active, but not inactive. It's been pretty typical from what I have seen.

Active season to me, with shear and dry air keeping things tamped down.
Matthew, however, appears to have potential to be a real pain in the abdomen.
It looks like Storms could be firing over what could be the center at 12.2N 53.8W. First time I have seen concentrated storm looks so organized with 97L
instead of taking it due north, the GFS run has it moving more NNW, little shift but expect that trend to likely continue, it was showing the ridging staying slightly stronger for longer this run and the cut off low becoming slightly weaker a tad faster.
Quoting 538. hydrus:



That's got the appearance of a clenched fist in the projection.
Some how think this is going to end up nasty in somebody's back yard or over their house.
Quoting 591. earthisanocean:



can anyone explain to me why this looks closed on nullschool, but the HH declined to classify it as such? obviously i'll defer to the experts at the NHC, but to the very untrained eye this looks completely closed, albeit weak.


HHs already left the storm, those images are constantly updating.
Very interesting...articles like this is why I follow this blog

BZ
Quoting 591. earthisanocean:



can anyone explain to me why this looks closed on nullschool, but the HH declined to classify it as such? obviously i'll defer to the experts at the NHC, but to the very untrained eye this looks completely closed, albeit weak.
That is data derived from the GFS model. Not the actual center.
Quoting 597. isothunder67:



HHs already left the storm, those images are constantly updating.


they update every 3 hrs actually, and the last update also looked closed. i posted the 2 o clock one while the HH were in the storm, they came back and said it wasnt closed. just trying to understand where the discrepancy lies.
Basically the Euro and GFS are within a 100 or so miles of each other near Jamaica and south of Cuba but the Euro is slower, a full 48 hours behind the the GFS when they get to that point
602. ackee
Gfs continue to trend west with each run slowly
Quoting 591. earthisanocean:



can anyone explain to me why this looks closed on nullschool, but the HH declined to classify it as such? obviously i'll defer to the experts at the NHC, but to the very untrained eye this looks completely closed, albeit weak.


To my understanding nullschool uses GFS model projections for their wind fields. Although the low may be broadly closed, there are multiple vorticies competing for dominance.
Quoting 603. meiscat:



To my understanding nullschool uses GFS model projections for their wind fields. Although the low may be broadly closed, there are multiple vorticies competing for dominance.


It is also nowhere near that far south anymore.
Honestly it looks as if 97L has gotten MORE organized today. We are closer than ever to seeing a TD with this storm. Just needed recon to find a west wind.
Quoting 577. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Which picture is better for my profile pic?
Link
Link
I will only do it when i get enough opinions.


Please!



Big difference in location 6 days out. We likely won't get a good handle on this till it gets a well defined LLC and the steering set up becomes more clear.
gfs trending slightly west.

Quoting 606. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



Please!
they eye one looks much cooler
Quoting 550. GTstormChaserCaleb:

By the way there is another tropical wave behind 97L that may need to be watched. A nice Cape Verde Couplet. May be the last of the wave train, but we'll see though.




Im having a hard time believing that 97 will not go further west and into the gulf. I know the models are now coming together in agreement, and that larger storms tend to pull further north, but I'm jus hesitant to believe it right now. Im not letting my guard down until this thing is east of Florida
Quoting 606. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



Please!


Link #1
Looking back at yesterday's 12z GFS and the GFS 18z tonight I would say is a good 150-200 miles more to the west north of the islands.
Well, just checking in after a long day at work and going back over some comments. A ways out still but if pre-Matthew does take a trip up the east coast of Florida hope everyone is prepared. Guess I wil be double checking supplies this weekend just incase but pretty much set.
18 z GFS has "Matthew" further west...skirting Hispaniola and heading towards Jamaica.
I'm still gleaning that Matthew will likely have a Hazel colored eye to some extant. 700miles east or west of that. But we will see lol.
Slowly following inline with the others.
Quoting 608. chevycanes:

gfs trending slightly west.


617. ackee
97L looking like it getting even more organized when will we see a TD/ TS

A Tonight
B 24 hours
C 48 hours
D 36 hours
E. 72 hours
D 84 hours
Very nice to get new support for ASCAT (which has accurately missed 97L several times today):

SCATSAT-1 data will be used by NASA, says ISRO
The 371kg SCATSAT-1 is the continuity mission for Scatterometer payload carried by the earlier Oceansat-2 satellite.
Indian Express, By: IANS | Chennai | Published:September 27, 2016 10:22 pm
The data generated by India's SCATSAT-1 weather satelliteput into orbit on Monday will be used by international space agencies including NASA and European Space Agency (ESA), ISRO said on Tuesday. According to the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the SCATSAT-1 mission is a global one and not just for domestic use.
"SCATSAT-1 is a global mission and data generated from the Scatterometer, developed by ISRO will also be utilised by the American space agency NASA and ESA organisation, EUMETSAT to provide global weather data to all those involved in weather studies and global climate change studies," ISRO said.
The 371kg SCATSAT-1 is the continuity mission for Scatterometer payload carried by the earlier Oceansat-2 satellite.
Global wind data, which is very crucial for cyclone detection and weather forecasting applications, was gathered by Scatterometer instrument flown as one of the payloads in OCEANSAT- 2 satellite. ...

Whole article see link above.


Indian Space Research Organisation's PSLV-C35 ready to be launch on Saturday with SCATSAT-1 and seven other satellites from Sriharikota on Monday. (Source: PTI)
Quoting 609. masiello3:

they eye one looks much cooler

Thank You!
This is the worrisome part about the model runs the last 24-48 hours especially the GFS, you see the GFS trending west but the thing is you don't see a hint at all of the Euro trending east...
18z GFS virtually the same through 174hrs.

E of the Bahamas, shooting off to the NE.
Quoting 611. isothunder67:



Link #1

thank you!
GFS vs. Euro. at 168 hrs. GFS quicker north movement of the storm and less west.

Quoting 595. PlazaRed:


That's got the appearance of a clenched fist in the projection.
Some how think this is going to end up nasty in somebody's back yard or over their house.


And a bad stomach for the western GOM.
Quoting 607. masiello3:


Big difference in location 6 days out. We likely won't get a good handle on this till it gets a well defined LLC and the steering set up becomes more clear.


It's the turn. May not get a good handle on it until 48 hrs or less ahead of it. This kind of turn has always been extremely difficult for models to forecast. Major timing differences in the GFS and Euro. Sticking with my E of Bermuda to Cozumel forecast for now.

GFS 168 hrs 18z



ECMWF 240hrs 12z

Headed into deep Mexico coast almost into Belize. Very remote area. What do you guys think about heading that way with this storm brewing out there? We leave on the 30th and return the 10th. I'm just an amateur weather buff. If the storm takes the turn north as most models think will, will we still see strong winds and rain deep into the Yucatan? Thanks in advance!
current run at 12z oct 5.



12z run at 12z oct 5.

18Z run is further west. GFS slowly is falling in line with the Euro and the others
Quoting 626. snapper01:

Headed into deep Mexico coast almost into Belize. Very remote area. What do you guys think about heading that way with this storm brewing out there? We leave on the 30th and return the 10th. I'm just an amateur weather buff. If the storm takes the turn north as most models think will, will we still see strong winds and rain deep into the Yucatan? Thanks in advance!


You guys should be alright. A strong trough is predicted to lift the storm north, and the chances of it heading due west into the Yucatan are very low. Keep an eye on it anyhow.
630. TXCWC
If you DON'T want an East Coast landfall this isn't a good setup.
210 hours out. head for outer bank of NC

MOVING NW
Quoting 616. hurricanewatcher61:

Slowly following inline with the others.


Ever so slightly further to the west (for Florida). About 1 or 2 degrees further west (74 degrees west Long, to now about 75 degrees west longitude) as the system comes up through the Bahamas.
I expect at least a depression by 5 pm tomorrow. Based on the rest of this season, there is a chance it will not happen.
Goodnight to all!
18Z GFS Major shift west


12Z GFS
Quoting 565. DeepSeaRising:



In respect to the 1836 people who died in Louisiana from Katrina, let's not be so flippant with comments such as this.


The question was about preference. That preference does not control the weather nor impart any bad mojo on any particular location. Your preference may differ from mine, but my preference is unchanged.
Quoting 629. tigerdeF:



You guys should be alright. A strong trough is predicted to lift the storm north, and the chances of it heading due west into the Yucatan are very low. Keep an eye on it anyhow.


"should" is a subjective term. I would suggest keeping an eye on the models until you are in a place where you no longer can check them. It would not be the first time a storm missed a forecast turn. Hopefully by the 30th the models will find a little more consistency and you will know before you head in to the backwoods.
Quoting 632. chrisdscane:

MOVING NW



Starts a turn to the northeast at 222 hours.
if the ridge builds in that strong and its remains weak into the Caribbean, expect it to go even further west at this point. East coast definitely on alert. GOM def. not out of play.

Quoting 630. TXCWC:

If you DON'T want an East Coast landfall this isn't a good setup.

Quoting 638. Sfloridacat5:



Starts a turn to the northeast at 222 hours.


Close shave.
Quoting 626. snapper01:

Headed into deep Mexico coast almost into Belize. Very remote area. What do you guys think about heading that way with this storm brewing out there? We leave on the 30th and return the 10th. I'm just an amateur weather buff. If the storm takes the turn north as most models think will, will we still see strong winds and rain deep into the Yucatan? Thanks in advance!


Where exactly are you headed?
Quoting 591. earthisanocean:



can anyone explain to me why this looks closed on nullschool, but the HH declined to classify it as such? obviously i'll defer to the experts at the NHC, but to the very untrained eye this looks completely closed, albeit weak.


Remember the Nullschool maps are just pretty motion pictures of the GFS model and not any sort of representation of actual physical condition. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
this is a big shift west in the long term
They said it not me. Not what I want to hear

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
Path to the E of FL appears to be closing to us. By tomorrow night/Thu AM, all models will likely be honing in on FL or the Gulf.
From a lowering US threat to a rising US threat. Those models are still windshield wiping the Atlantic. But as the time goes by, the rain will stop, and those windshield wipers will no longer be used.
Blocked from going OTS and I would expect some sort of merging with that shortwave swinging through the Midwest.

Quoting 640. nash36:



Close shave.


It's going west this run. High moving off the the east. It will feel the low to the west.
New England/NEUS looks screwed THIS run at least.
line of storms in Brevard county, frequent lightning
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 640. nash36:



Close shave.


Yeah, the fact that the model has been progressively moving to the west can't be ignored.
Quoting 637. StormJunkie:



"should" is a subjective term. I would suggest keeping an eye on the models until you are in a place where you no longer can check them. It would not be the first time a storm missed a forecast turn. Hopefully by the 30th the models will find a little more consistency and you will know before you head in to the backwoods.


Thank you. Yes we will keep an eye on it until the very last second. Thanks for all comments!


oh boy!
Quoting 606. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Please!

First one with the eye of Isabel is better for an avatar. Structures of the second one with Seaside Hights are too flimsy for such a small picture like an avatar.
Quoting 641. LouisPasteur:



Where exactly are you headed?


Playa Blanca Fly Fishing logde
Bernie Rayno thinks even the ECMWF might be a bit too east.
Sorry. I lied. I am doing maybe one more post.
The gfs wants to kill NJ and NY with at least 10 inches of rain.
And at least 50 mph winds.



NJ can not take this much rain. This summers thunderstorms have blown over a couple of big tree with some rain.
This will be sandy times 10 if it happens which is unlikely.
The new doom of the day?!
Categoy 5 at landfall?!


At least cat 4?
Quoting 479. barbamz:


Megi's second landfall in China.


Now models are saying that Magi's gonna recurve well into China!
Good evening everyone...I still see a lot of model scenarios being posted...Most here know that if 97L stays weak, it will be much further west while in the Caribbean sea...The chances of a U.S. strike increase the further west it makes it.
Quoting 641. LouisPasteur:



Where exactly are you headed?


Playa Blanca Fly Fishing logde
664. IDTH
Go watch Levi's new video.
Link
what a great thanksgiving weekend that will be up here in Canada

666. IDTH
Oh boy, there goes the blog.