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97L a threat to become a tropical depression on Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the east coast of Puerto Rico has become more organized overnight and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day (Figure 1), and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which may allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms, but no signs of a surface circulation, no low-level spiral banding, and no upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico, with no signs of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L this afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. We do have several models developing 97L into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The GFS and HWRF both take 97L to tropical storm status over the Bahamas by Thursday, with the storm then tracking over South Florida on Friday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The NOGAPS is similar, but portrays a weaker system. All of these models foresee a threat to the oil spill region by Saturday night or Sunday, with the storm making a second landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana. One factor potentially aiding the storm will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over the next 4 - 5 days, and I believe the primary detriment to development of 97L over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 60% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas, and I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 10%. There is a better chance that 97L could attain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps 20%. These probabilities will depend heavily upon how long 97L (or Bonnie) spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

Time to cut the forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season?
Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR increased their numbers to 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 with their July 6 forecast)
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

The group forecasting the lowest activity was the Florida State University group led by Dr. Tim LaRow. They use a new dynamical forecast model called COAPS, which is funded by a 5-year, $6.2 million grant from NOAA. This year's June forecast by the COAPS model called for 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. However, Dr. LaRow emailed me yesterday to say that the COAPS model is now calling for reduced activity. Using the state of the atmosphere and ocean as of July 15, a new run of the COAPS model was performed over the weekend. The new forecast is now calling for two fewer hurricanes--a total of 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes (including Alex.) The COAPS model generated an "ensemble" of five different forecasts, done by varying the initial sea surface temperatures by a few percent at the beginning of the model run. These five forecasts came up with a range of 12 - 16 named storms (including Alex), and 7 - 10 hurricanes. It will be interesting to see when CSU issues its August 4 forecast if they also cut their numbers. With only one named storm (Alex) thus far this year, it's getting pretty hard to have a season with 19 or 20 named storms. Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as nineteen named storms. These four seasons--1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005--all had at least three named storms by July 20.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting DestinJeff:
ON GUARD!


Also of note. TropicalStormBonnie has already formed and must have 3G out there because she is on WU Mail.


Yeah I got one 2. LOL!
Why do I have the biggest star in Orca's google map. If anything it should be Storm. LOL
TCFA should be issued soon. IMO, 97L may become a tropical depression tonight, with a higher chance tomorrow when Recon investigates.

Admiral Thad Allen, National Incident Commander

Media briefing to provide update on ongoing Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill response efforts

WHEN: Tuesday, July 20, 2010, 3:30 p.m. EDT.
Quoting AlexEmmett:

crap i work tonight and this is going to be an interesting night


Call in sick!
Quoting FLdewey:


It was time this morning... too late now it's mostly gone. Cars in parking lots overturned and burning... women going into labor early. It's a real disaster.


Did Sarah Palin come to town?
997:the developing llc is forming way west of the 12z coordinates and is slighty south on the 12z model runs so this should move abit to the left
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I got one 2. LOL!


Ignore em he is as Pat would say "un-sub"
Quoting StormW:
Models should come left on the 18Z run


I totally agree... it has stayed on a more westward track recently and I think this thing is headed more towards kay west/miami... and then a possible Destin/Panama City 2nd landfall... of course it depends on how strong it gets in the gulf...
1011. whs2012
Okay, I'm confused. I thought we couldn't really have a reliable track on an invest. We had to wait for it to become a depression, but it seems like everyone is saying (seems like with little doubt) that it's going to Florida?
TCFA should be issued soon. IMO, 97L may become a tropical depression tonight, with a higher chance tomorrow when Recon investigates.

Turning is definitely seen on satellite imagery. Also cirrus outflow is becoming better established on the southern side of the circulation all the way into central eastern Caribbean Sea. We could start to see the development of an upper level anticyclone if one is not already there.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


haha

I just had this thought....Sarah Palin as a Met predicting or describing this storm. Easy on the eyes but not the ears....LOL!!


lord i cant stand her whiney yankee voice! it runs me right slap up a wall.
Puerto Rico NWS Radar:



Nasa View:


1016. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TCFA should be issued soon. IMO, 97L may become a tropical depression tonight, with a higher chance tomorrow when Recon investigates.



Has a shot at 11 but it is likely to occur after recon at this point. If it was in the middle of the atlantic it would have been designated tonight.
Drak what are you tunking in terms of the models at 18Z? Thanks bud!
One thing that might be a detriment to making this a TD by tonight at least, besides the shear is the overall convective nature of the system. Still somewhat disorganized, but this will be corrected as the LLC becomes more organized and consolidated. It is a big circulation.
I made this image using paint.

Red shows the outflow trying to come in and the blue shows where outflow needs to get established soon to close off the circulation
when that happens, we should see a T.D.


Crap I only had one simple request yesterday, that was no use of the F-word as in Fl.. Now I have to shop one day in advance of weekly specials. Oh while sometimes the inconvenience of proper preparation can be daunting.
Keep in mind everyone, this will most likely NOT head for Mexico or southern Texas.. The pattern change is finally occurring, tracks more towards Upper Texas to Florida are now becoming likely, especially with 97L. The entire Gulf Coast should be watching this one. Also folks on the East Coast of Florida from Jax to Miami should watch it to, the weakness may be stronger, but we'll see.
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:


I totally agree... it has stayed on a more westward track recently and I think this thing is headed more towards kay west/miami... and then a possible Destin/Panama City 2nd landfall... of course it depends on how strong it gets in the gulf...


and if it doesn't move unexpectedly south prior to landfall.
Quoting DestinJeff:
No need to Panic, people.

Its not as if the Captain has informed us that we're also out of coffee!



We ran out of Martini!
Vort at the 850 mb level continues to become better defined. This is currently in the process of working down the surface.

Quoting ElConando:


Has a shot at 11 but it is likely to occur after recon at this point. If it was in the middle of the atlantic it would have been designated tonight.


Aren't they only released at 2a, 8a, 2p, and 8p until it is named?
Right now, Invest 97L continues to become better organized, but gradually, as a low level circulation center slowly becomes better defined near NE Dominican Republic this afternoon. In reviewing satellite imagery, I'm not too impressed with the system overall as outflow struggles to establish itself over the western half of the system and land interaction continues to choke the system to the south. It will take more time for this to develop, but in my opinion, is well on the way to becoming a tropical depression in the next 24 hours or so.
Quoting AlexEmmett:

its pray for the best with your tail bettwen your legs lol they have no plan


Wrong..they have an evac plan in the event of weather systems...it takes 5 days to implement, but with the well capped they should be alright
here it is..the next tropical low to watch..
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
Radar and satellite imagery suggests that the MLC or circulation north of PR is now becoming subjected to the overall circulation center north of eastern DR coast. This is now the dominant and only circulation center associated with 97L. Intensification to a TD is expected by tomorrow morning. Wind shear is the only detriment and could be a fatal one if it does not subdue some over the next 24 hours. However given what is currently happening on visible satellite imagery, my best guess is that CIMSS is overdoing wind shear values at this time.


What's funny is I was justifying 97L not developing partly due to the southwesterly shear on my latest blog post (its not intense shear, but still there). I was analyzing it due to the upper low to 97L's north reversing to a southwestward track overnight. I know upper lows that are cut-off fade with time, and this one might be fading faster than the CIMSS is saying. I was also thinking the wave axis was not aligned with the mid-level rotation N of Hispaniola, partly due to the shear.

I guess what's happening is that convection concentrated to the NE of the wave axis, and the surface rotation will develop beneath the convection & mid-level rotation, just off of the axis (makes sense because convection is developing a warm core surface low in the low pressure field NE of the wave axis I suppose). The axis itself will then continue westward uneventfully.
Im thinking circulation right around 20N 67.5W north between PR and DR

that is where the greatest 850mb vorticity is too
Quoting StormW:


Yep.


Glad you are, but that northerly dry air intrusion is making me take a second look.
Quoting ElConando:


and if it doesn't move unexpectedly south prior to landfall.


very true... I didn't want to bring up the "K" word, but Katrina jogged a lot to the SW which caused it to swing over and hit N.O.... All the Friday A.M. before model runs were consistent on bringing Katrina into the Panhandle... but then BAM she started going WSW
Quoting StonedCrab:


Aren't they only released at 2a, 8a, 2p, and 8p until it is named?


The TWO's are always done. When a TD is designated is when they issues updates on a specific storm at 5 and 11 (am and pm). And 2 and 8 (am and pm) when there are watches and warnings up.
1037. unf97
Quoting reedzone:
Keep in mind everyone, this will most likely NOT head for Mexico or southern Texas.. The pattern change is finally occurring, tracks more towards Upper Texas to Florida are now becoming likely, especially with 97L. The entire Gulf Coast should be watching this one. Also folks on the East Coast of Florida from Jax to Miami should watch it to, the weakness may be stronger, but we'll see.


Good observation Reed. Yeah, I am watching the models to see just how much the western periphery of the ridge will erode by this weekend. If there is a significant weakness, then a more poleward motion would be definitely probable. That would make things very interesting all along the East Coast of FL. I'm here in Jax, so the next set of model runs in the next 36 hours or so will hopefully provide us some clues for sure.
time is no longer a factor in how strong this system gets. it has PLENTY of time and bathtub (albeit a tad oily) water to carry on it's cyclogenesis.....

oil-a-geddon
1039. divdog
Quoting whs2012:
Okay, I'm confused. I thought we couldn't really have a reliable track on an invest. We had to wait for it to become a depression, but it seems like everyone is saying (seems like with little doubt) that it's going to Florida?
dont believe the hype. just watch and wait and believe what the nhc is saying. they are watching and formulating their theory. NOONE knows where the storm is going to hit.
Quoting Floodman:


Wrong..they have an evac plan in the event of weather systems...it takes 5 days to implement, but with the well capped they should be alright

i dont consider that a plan it tokk them a day to think that up
Quoting StormW:


Hey! Where ya been? Good to see ya.
How is my image explanation i made with paint? I like to hear advice from a pro like you.
Geez, ya'll keep pointing to Destin/PCB - makes me wanna run for the hills.
Really do not want a tropical twirl dancing across that oil spill and bringing us more troubles. : (
1043. P451
Latest WV Imagery, SSD Floater.

Quoting reedzone:
GFDL turns 97L towards my direction here in Central Florida.. ouch, not liking this, this was not expected a day ago... wow.



actually about 3 or 4 days ago I just about was guaranteeing that we'd be watching 1 maybe 2 disturbances near the GOM this weekend....
Quoting unf97:


Good observation Jeff. Yeah, I am watching the models to see just how much the western periphery of the ridge will erode by this weekend. If there is a significant weakness, then a more poleward motion would be definitely probable. That would make things very interesting all along the East Coast of FL. I'm here in Jax, so the nextset of model runs will hopefully provide us some clues for sure.


This is Allan, not Jeff lol... Think you have me confused with the wrong person. Also the upper level low should keep 97L away from the BOC and possibly Texas.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Call Me a Downcaster! Invest 97L May not Develop, LOL, I might be eating my biggest crow ever on this one with the way the NHC upgraded the probability to 60%. I guess I am on my way to the grocery store to buy crow, but I am not eating it yet (it isn't a tropical depression yet).

At least in a blog post before that, I said TD 2 would not become TS Bonnie, I was right about that. Hey, you win some, you lose some, LOL.

I have to agree with you , i don't think this system is all that well organized, maybe I'm wrong, but now it looks like a new circulation is forming north of the eastern tip of the dominican republic
Quoting StormW:


Hey! Where ya been? Good to see ya.


Been busy trying to find work, which I did as a certified tutor both online and in person, as well as spending some time with the family. Good to be back and working with some very knowledgeable people once again here. I'm trying to get back into the swing of things forecasting.
A few days models were showing nothing thru July, bloggers were saying July is dead, how things can change. With the tropics you almost have to take one day at a time.
1049. gator23
Quoting unf97:


Good observation Jeff. Yeah, I am watching the models to see just how much the western periphery of the ridge will erode by this weekend. If there is a significant weakness, then a more poleward motion would be definitely probable. That would make things very interesting all along the East Coast of FL. I'm here in Jax, so the nextset of model runs will hopefully provide us some clues for sure.

thats what I am waiting for too. We will find out what will happen when a LLC is established. I think everyone from the keys to Jax should be watching.
OK... I AM NOT saying this storm will be a Katrina... I hate people who suggest things like that, but I had no idea Katrina started as a spin north of Puerto Rico... Here is a segment of the beginnings of Katrina, found in a NHC report:

A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August.
1051. FLdewey
Jim Cantore is fueling up the Weather Channel Humvee.

Steffy has shotgun.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TCFA should be issued soon. IMO, 97L may become a tropical depression tonight, with a higher chance tomorrow when Recon investigates.

what do you think of my image explanation?
1053. gator23
Quoting stillwaiting:



actually about 3 or 4 days ago I just about was guaranteeing that we'd be watching 1 maybe 2 disturbances near the GOM this weekend....

the GFS upgrade predicted a senario were 97 L would go up to near JAX and go west 3 days ago.
Miamihurricanes, are you 13 years old?
1055. xcool
1056. unf97
Quoting reedzone:


This is Allan, not Jeff lol... Think you have me confused with the wrong person. Also the upper level low should keep 97L away from the BOC and possibly Texas.


Sorry about that Reed LOL. I did go back and edited that post, but it was too late, you replyed already. I thought you were Jeff9641 on that last post.
Didnt expect the models to be pointing this at me when I got back...


Also didnt expect to see it at 60%
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Glad you are, but that northerly dry air intrusion is making me take a second look.


I also felt that way about the dry air on my latest blog post too. I am getting mixed messages from 97L.

1. Great banding features and mid-level rotation is displaced to the NE of the wave axis. Yeah it looks organized, but the surface wave axis isn't aligned with the mid-level rotation. Perhaps convection will touch off a surface low NE of the wave axis (instead of on the wave axis) as it matures the warm core mid-level spin. The wave axis itself will then continue uneventfully westward.

2. Dry air and some southwesterly shear from the ULL to its north may be a problem for 97L

3. And I thought land interaction with Hispaniola would also be a problem for 97L because the wave axis is already over Hispaniola. But I guess if the convection is developing a surface low NE of Hispaniola to the NE of the wave axis, then maybe that's whats happening.

97L is complex indeed, lets see what happens.
Given current observations and satellite imagery all indicating a developing closed low level circulation near NE Dominican Republic, I would expect the next computer model runs to shift some further west and south. For those living in both Central and Southern Florida (like myself), I would keep an eye on the system as things develop further. It would seem that a Friday to Saturday rain event is definitely in store at the least for the area.
Healthy wave for now, that's all....
That very well organized circulation seen on the PR radar imagery yesterday, is no more now as the main low circulation is developing rapidly over or NE of the eastern tip of Hispaniola. Very interesting indeed. System has a greater than 50% chance of development into a tropical cyclone by tomorrow evening. Chances are it will be called a TC when the HH investigate tomorrow late morning/early afternoon. Right now outflow is tremendous on all but the western side, likely due to the continued strong wind shear coming out of the west, chances are it is not as strong as CIMSS is analyzing.
That's Friday afternoon folks from the NHC.
Quoting gator23:

the GFS upgrade predicted a senario were 97 L would go up to near JAX and go west 3 days ago.



odds are much better that this will effect the southern half of fl and possibly the west coast and/or panhandle,I doubt she'll go north of jupiter area...
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
A few days models were showing nothing thru July, bloggers were saying July is dead, how things can change. With the tropics you almost have to take one day at a time.


Two days ago, many of us (including me) were thinking July was going to be a bust.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
That's Friday afternoon folks from the NHC.


Sorry, Friday morning.

8am to be specific.
1069. whs2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Didnt expect the models to be pointing this at me when I got back...


Also didnt expect to see it at 60%


Are those models likely? The ones that go up south florida and turn due west towards Texas?
Quoting unf97:


Sorry about that Reed LOL. I did go back and edited that post, but it was too late, you replyed already. I thought you were Jeff9641 on that last post.


It's alright.
lol i knew july wasnt gonna be bust lol
Do you expect to see T.D.3 at 8:00 PM?

YES

or

NO

Had to leave for a second.
Stormchaser2007 Thats the best place to be right in the middle 5 days out that means your safe.
For those on the East coast of Florida by around this time tomorrow it would be wise to check if you are in an evac zone that calls for voluntary evacuations in an event of a Cat 1 if you were not aware already. Local news in your area would likely show you if you are in an evac zone as well.

Question: Anyone know of any areas that are evac zones even in TS's?

The 12z Official track brought it to a hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 12, 194N, 671W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 24, 199N, 687W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 36, 207N, 705W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 48, 216N, 724W, 38, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 28, 28, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 60, 225N, 743W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 39, 29, 29, 39,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 72, 235N, 763W, 55, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 19, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 84, 245N, 782W, 64, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 96, 256N, 801W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 108, 266N, 819W, 69, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072012, 03, OFCI, 120, 277N, 836W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting futuremet:


Two days ago, many of us (including me) were thinking July was going to be a bust.


I held on to Bonnie forming before the month ends, guess it may turn out to be accurate.
Looks like the models have shifted again!!! I love it! The suspense!!!
Quoting patrikdude2:
Do you expect to see T.D.3 at 8:00 PM?

YES

or

NO



If it were to be called it would be at 11pm.
Oh by the way, point number 2 I made in post 1058 (the convection and mid-level spin displaced NE of the wave axis) I feel is because of the southwesterly shear. I thought this would inhibit development, but the convection might be maturing the warm core mid-level spin to the surface. Thus, development won't occur on the axis itself, but perhpas NE of the wave axis. Lets see what happens.
Quoting StormW:


Pretty good...has a half decent outflow channel to the NE and east, as evident by the "banding" features. If it can get an established upper level anticyclone, then organization would be easier.
Thanks StormW!
Quoting patrikdude2:
Do you expect to see T.D.3 at 8:00 PM?

YES

or

NO



probably not, but wouldn't be completely surprised
ELCanado you are jumping the gun a little in MHO.
HPC Day 3




Day 5


AL, 97, 2010072018, , BEST, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 1012, DB,
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Geez, ya'll keep pointing to Destin/PCB - makes me wanna run for the hills.
Really do not want a tropical twirl dancing across that oil spill and bringing us more troubles. : (


Foxx a storm coming at us from the East would actually push the oil away from us and more back towards LA and TX. Just think about the counter clockwise rotation as it approaches, we'll get strong East and then SE winds to push it away from us. Not that I wish it on anyone else mind you!
Quoting AlexEmmett:

craptastic



Crapcaster!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Sorry, Friday morning.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Day 3




Day 5




Oil for everyone, man that's a bad track.
Hello all
I see we now have a possible TD in the making. I am here in Miami and don't like what I see.
1090. FLdewey
Quoting ElConando:
For those on the East coast of Florida by around this time tomorrow it would be wise to check if you are in an evac zone that calls for voluntary evacuations in an event of a Cat 1 if you were not aware already. Local news in your area would likely show you if you are in an evac zone as well.

Question: Anyone know of any areas that are evac zones even in TS's?



Some counties (Like Brevard) will do an evac of low lying areas and manufactured homes for some tropical storms. If you were in a mandatory evac area for a cat 1 I would assume it would be for flood concerns or manufactured homes.

Except for the flood threat I think the "mandatory" evacuations for cat 1's are overblown.
Good afternoon to all.
Quoting futuremet:


Two days ago, many of us (including me) were thinking July was going to be a bust.


Like I said so many times you guys were way wrong infact July is about to blow just look by Africa.
Are models still showing this system hitting S. Fl as a TS?
Is there no chance 97 will recurve out to fishville?
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?
TAFB gave 97L a T1.5
BTW, what is the record # of posts?
Dvorak from TAFB 1.5


AL 97 201007201745 DVTS 1980N 6750W TAFB 1515 /////
It's the Lebronocane!
Quoting FLdewey:


Some counties (Like Brevard) will do an evac of low lying areas and manufactured homes for some tropical storms. If you were in a mandatory evac area for a cat 1 I would assume it would be for flood concerns or manufactured homes.

Except for the flood threat I think the "mandatory" evacuations for cat 1's are overblown.


not that i feel its going to be necessary this time around, but I have moved within a mile from the beach since our last cane.. Can anyone point me to an evac map of palm beach count?
I'm just NOT seeing this thing forming at LLC... Like I said yesterday, Wednesday Evening, we may a TD (or maybe a TS) but not today...
1102. Drakoen
TAFB

DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. BANDING APPEARS MOR
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 97, 2010072018, , BEST, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 1012, DB,

is that they area just north of eastern dr
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Didnt expect the models to be pointing this at me when I got back...


Also didnt expect to see it at 60%


Got a link for that graphic? Tryin' to get one to work on my phone...
1105. FLdewey
Quoting Baybuddy:
Is there no chance 97 will recurve out to fishville?


Sure... this is mother nature anything can happen. Until an actual center of circulation develops it's up in the air. I'm thinking the odds of a fish storm with this lil dood are slim to none, but I bear no badges of meteorology.
Quoting cheezemm:
It's the Lebronocane!

happy lebronica lol did any of u see the dan labate video
Storm, Drak

What are the coordinates roughly for the circulation center?
97L 18Z SHIPS Text, track from OFCI.
Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
ELCanado you are jumping the gun a little in MHO.


Understandable but I'm just recommending that people see if they are in an area that has been mandated for a voluntary evacuation in the event of category 1 Hurricane. Nothing more. Sorry if I was coming off in a alarming manner.
1110. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100720 1800 100721 0600 100721 1800 100722 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 68.2W 20.1N 71.1W 20.6N 73.7W 20.6N 75.9W
BAMD 19.5N 68.2W 20.1N 70.0W 20.7N 71.9W 21.6N 73.8W
BAMM 19.5N 68.2W 20.0N 70.3W 20.6N 72.4W 21.1N 74.1W
LBAR 19.5N 68.2W 19.9N 70.4W 20.6N 73.0W 21.3N 75.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100722 1800 100723 1800 100724 1800 100725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 77.6W 22.2N 80.3W 23.8N 83.0W 25.0N 85.6W
BAMD 22.6N 75.7W 24.5N 80.1W 26.1N 85.0W 27.4N 89.3W
BAMM 22.0N 75.8W 23.8N 79.0W 25.1N 83.0W 26.1N 86.6W
LBAR 22.2N 78.0W 24.6N 83.1W 27.2N 86.9W 30.0N 88.6W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 69KTS 68KTS
DSHP 61KTS 54KTS 54KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 68.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 66.2W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 64.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Trust me 97L is being fed heat and moisture right up the Virgin Passage and over me on the west end of STT. It is POURING as the moist air come over Crown mountain and dumps on me.... Looks like it will keep doing so until it goes far enough north to start a circulation that is not interfered with by Puerto Rico..
Quoting Baybuddy:
Is there no chance 97 will recurve out to fishville?


Always a chance however, very small in this case. The steering reasoning should remain unchanged. Variables being where the LLC finds it's final resting point and how strong it gets.
Quoting mikatnight:


Got a link for that graphic? Tryin' to get one to work on my phone...

Link
Quoting cheezemm:
It's the Lebronocane!
But where is it taking its talents?
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?
I thought so too.. If the storm were to develop it would be around the Center Of Circulation North of Dominican republic.
woot.. we got a mention.. err.. Dr did lol

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Crapcaster!

just stating what the data says im in south florida and not liking what i see
1118. xcool
12 Z EURO
TX/LA Border
18z Official still bringing it through south Florida, but this time as a strong tropical storm.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 12, 203N, 702W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 24, 212N, 721W, 37, 0, , 34, NEQ, 27, 17, 10, 27,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 36, 222N, 743W, 42, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 24, 24, 37,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 48, 234N, 766W, 47, 0, , 34, NEQ, 45, 32, 32, 45,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 52, 35, 37, 52,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 60, 246N, 789W, 51, 0, , 50, NEQ, 29, 29, 0, 29,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 34, NEQ, 56, 36, 39, 56,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 72, 257N, 809W, 53, 0, , 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 84, 267N, 826W, 51, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 96, 280N, 841W, 52, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 108, 294N, 857W, 57, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, OFCI, 120, 311N, 871W, 65, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?


Hispaniola has had a history of tricking people on this site with thinking they are seeing another circulation forming. It is probably nothing.
12z EURO weak system TX/LA border @ 108h
1122. unf97
NWS Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL

Long Term (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)


MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
IN ANY CASE...IF THE WAVE REMAINS INTACT...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS ALWAYS...THE TRACK AND TIMING WILL BE FINE
TUNED AS WE GET NEARER TO THE EVENT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND POPS WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH.

1123. FLdewey
Quoting ElConando:


Understandable but I'm just recommending that people see if they are in an area that has been mandated for a voluntary evacuation in the event of category 1 Hurricane. Nothing more. Sorry if I was coming off in a alarming manner.


That's great advice. Now is a great time to leaf through the phone book just to check, wait they don't do those anymore. Okay just Google it. ;-)
Quoting muddertracker:
But where is it taking its talents?
South Beach.
Quoting ElConando:
For those on the East coast of Florida by around this time tomorrow it would be wise to check if you are in an evac zone that calls for voluntary evacuations in an event of a Cat 1 if you were not aware already. Local news in your area would likely show you if you are in an evac zone as well.

Question: Anyone know of any areas that are evac zones even in TS's?



i know many, if not most, places in fla on the beaches have one bridge to leave on. so the problem is when you are told to leave, the order has to be given to allow enough time for all the beach people to get across the relatively narrow bridge. and in walton county, the hwy 331 bridge which is an evacuation route north, closes down at 40 mph winds. so the beach people have to get out early before the winds get up to 40 mph.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I also felt that way about the dry air on my latest blog post too. I am getting mixed messages from 97L.

1. Great banding features and mid-level rotation is displaced to the NE of the wave axis. Yeah it looks organized, but the surface wave axis isn't aligned with the mid-level rotation. Perhaps convection will touch off a surface low NE of the wave axis (instead of on the wave axis) as it matures the warm core mid-level spin. The wave axis itself will then continue uneventfully westward.

2. Dry air and some southwesterly shear from the ULL to its north may be a problem for 97L

3. And I thought land interaction with Hispaniola would also be a problem for 97L because the wave axis is already over Hispaniola. But I guess if the convection is developing a surface low NE of Hispaniola to the NE of the wave axis, then maybe that's whats happening.

97L is complex indeed, lets see what happens.


Couldn't have said it better myself. In fact, I'm a little humbled. Upper level support for 97L is a hair less than favorable...to say the least. Wind shear will increase (I think), but water temps will increase also. Eastern atmospheric drift will continue to propel all storms and waves to the west and we will just have to watch them (as you said). 97L is worth watching but it's not worth sending a balloon up in the eye..........yet
18z SHIPS taking 97L through south Florida as a category 1 hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 12, 203N, 701W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 24, 212N, 720W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 36, 221N, 741W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 48, 235N, 766W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 60, 248N, 789W, 64, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 72, 258N, 810W, 67, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 84, 268N, 827W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 96, 278N, 839W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 108, 293N, 855W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 120, 312N, 871W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting ElConando:
For those on the East coast of Florida by around this time tomorrow it would be wise to check if you are in an evac zone that calls for voluntary evacuations in an event of a Cat 1 if you were not aware already. Local news in your area would likely show you if you are in an evac zone as well.

Question: Anyone know of any areas that are evac zones even in TS's?



Emergency managers are advised to assume 1 category up from what's forecasted, so probably barrier islands...

Either way, the sefla's will be busy tomorrow (I know I will).
1129. Drakoen
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Storm, Drak

What are the coordinates roughly for the circulation center?


19.5N 68.2W
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?
I think what you see is the persisting mid level circulation interacting with land,but it seems that the new developing COC at north of Punta Cana have some reflection at the surface, thus could become the dominant COC.
Well, lets hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Back to lurking...my dog just ate my nutty buddy while i was typing. Arrrgh!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z SHIPS taking 97L through south Florida as a category 1 hurricane.

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 12, 203N, 701W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 24, 212N, 720W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 36, 221N, 741W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 48, 235N, 766W, 61, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 60, 248N, 789W, 64, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 72, 258N, 810W, 67, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 84, 268N, 827W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 96, 278N, 839W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 108, 293N, 855W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072018, 03, SHIP, 120, 312N, 871W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


In 60 hours? Do you think that is a bit too fast?
1115. patrikdude2 6:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
Just me or does this appear to have 2 CC's. One over the island of Vieques PR and another close to Punta Cana, Dr?

I thought so too.. If the storm were to develop it would be around the Center Of Circulation North of Dominican republic.
It makes sense
I hope is not what Dan Gilbert meant as a curse for Miami getting LeBron.
Latest 18Z/12Z Models

Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Link


Thanks Stormchaser.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


In 60 hours? Do you think that is a bit too fast?

the water its near is hotter then meghan fox
Quoting Hurricanes101:


In 60 hours? Do you think that is a bit too fast?
Yeah a little too fast, I'm thinking more towards 72-84 hours as a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane making landfall in southern Florida. Yes I know it sounds like I'm getting ahead of myself. Lol.
Quoting ElConando:
I hope is not what Dan Gilbert meant as a curse for Miami getting LeBron.

"clevlands owner is a crazy person"
1141. xcool


Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
I'm just NOT seeing this thing forming at LLC... Like I said yesterday, Wednesday Evening, we may a TD (or maybe a TS) but not today...


SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA.
Quoting ElConando:


Understandable but I'm just recommending that people see if they are in an area that has been mandated for a voluntary evacuation in the event of category 1 Hurricane. Nothing more. Sorry if I was coming off in a alarming manner.

When I talked to my friends in Culebra a couple hours ago they were asking why I was not there just in case...the harbor there is the best place to be in a boat in a storm.
I would have had to leave Saturday..but didn't for the last 36 hours it would have been crazy to try to go over there even though it's only 18 miles. Did anybody expect this wave to slow down and the convection to sit over us this long on Saturday?
So maybe a little early planning is best although I don't think anything happened this time..but it would have been very difficult for me to do anything yesterday or today..
Quoting Baybuddy:
Well, lets hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Back to lurking...my dog just ate my nutty buddy while i was typing. Arrrgh!
rolf
1147. FLdewey
Apparently the P3 had some work done recently... looks like a check flight.

FLIGHTAWARE LINK for NOAA42
Look at those 18z dynamic models shift back towards the left. That's exactly why we just can't look at one run but rather look for a trend.
1150. xcool
StormW good job .
Quoting StormW:
Left shift?


Thats what I was wondering? But how far?
Quoting StormW:
Left shift?


you were right, that seems to happen a lot lol
Quoting AllStar17:


SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA.
Yea , your right look>>
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Latest 18Z/12Z Models


as expected a shift to the left on the 18z
I had ask a ? earlier and I was just wondering if anyone answered it. I was wondering what happened to 456? Is he still here I haven't seen him lately and was just wondering. I don't mean to get of the topic.
Sheri
Quoting StormW:
Left shift?


More like better agreement shift, north but also south with some... Talking bout the BAM runs here lol.
Quoting ElConando:


Hispaniola has had a history of tricking people on this site with thinking they are seeing another circulation forming. It is probably nothing.
Is not only us is in the NHC 2:00pm update.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What's funny is I was justifying 97L not developing partly due to the southwesterly shear on my latest blog post (its not intense shear, but still there). I was analyzing it due to the upper low to 97L's north reversing to a southwestward track overnight. I know upper lows that are cut-off fade with time, and this one might be fading faster than the CIMSS is saying. I was also thinking the wave axis was not aligned with the mid-level rotation N of Hispaniola, partly due to the shear.

I guess what's happening is that convection concentrated to the NE of the wave axis, and the surface rotation will develop beneath the convection & mid-level rotation, just off of the axis (makes sense because convection is developing a warm core surface low in the low pressure field NE of the wave axis I suppose). The axis itself will then continue westward uneventfully.


Dam Tony... Nice Job!
just curious...I know models aren't suggesting this right now. But, should I be keeping an eye on 97L just in case it would go more west? I mean is there any chance this could come my direction (SE TX) or is that a long shot?
1160. FLdewey
Quoting StormW:
Left shift?


one hop this time
one hop this time
reverse,reverse
slide to the left
slide to the right
reverse,reverse
Quoting StormW:
18Z DYNAMIC...



Good call on the slight shift south. Looks like a cone of doom is shaping up.

Till we see how quick this thing gets going, I'm thinking somewhere between Broward/Dade Line to Palm Beach / Martin line.
1163. xcool
LONG WEEK AHEAD
1165. unf97
Quoting StormW:
Left shift?


Possibly. But you know the "windshield wiper" effect with the models will keep occuring.
1166. Drakoen
12z dynamic models. TVCN looks like a good track in the middle of the computer forecast guidance.


Puerto Rico Weather Update
pressures are falling in eastern Puerto Rico
Pressure: 1012.1 hPa (Falling)
Don't go crazy with that latest GFDL run. Note that it initializes the cyclone too strong and has it at over 50 knots in 6 hours. That's likely not happening. Could be a day before it's even a TD.
.
At least the NHC did the right thing and put up the RED alert. As I said last night and again today, this was close to guaranteed to become RED just with the passage of time, and it has. We've certainly seen some better structure today, but we have awhile until this gal gets her act together. This got upgraded to RED more on the TIMING than on on the structure.
18Z runs didn't shift left, they just came into a better agreement, north shift is a good way to call it. They shifted left some, and others shifted to the right, away from Southern Texas/Mexico and further away from Cuba.
Quoting StormW:
Left shift?
Thinking the models ,might shift more to Northern Cuba and miss SFLA?
STORMW called it he said it should shift left
Quoting reedzone:
18Z runs didn't shift left, they just came into a better agreement, north shift is a good way to call it. They shifted left some, and others shifted to the right, away from Southern Texas/Mexico and further away from Cuba.
What? Lol, they obviously shifted a little left, but like you said, also came into a consensus.
Is there a depression yet? If not, models are pfffffttt.
1175. FLdewey
You guys don't know shift.


Dark purple looks scary.
i was one of those that expected that shift to the left
Quoting Floodman:


Wrong..they have an evac plan in the event of weather systems...it takes 5 days to implement, but with the well capped they should be alright


They are now considering Top Kill Part Deux, which leads me to suspect that all is not well.

BP considering new version of failed ‘top kill’ operation

Considering BP's (and Thad Allen's, for that matter) recent record for "truthiness," I seriously wonder what is really behind this latest initiative. I guess we'll find out when we find out. Perhaps it is really as simple as is stated.

Meanwhile, the models are pointing a storm at the site. That has to affect the thinking about options and risks.

I'd say that news conference bears close watching.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What? Lol, they obviously shifted a little left, but like you said, also came into a consensus.


Northward shift, thats what I call it, definitely not hooking towards the west as the 12Z.. More of a WNW track.
1181. gator23
.
Afternoon, everyone.

It's amazing to look at the first frame of this visible loop and then the last one. It just shows how organized this system has become since daybreak. Pretty impressive.

Link
1184. leo305
wow the surface low really has developed since I last checked

moving WNW, tonight we may have a TD
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I had ask a ? earlier and I was just wondering if anyone answered it. I was wondering what happened to 456? Is he still here I haven't seen him lately and was just wondering. I don't mean to get of the topic.
Sheri

He is around I know he said he only comes on occasionally to the blog, although it would be nice to hear his input today.
97L seems to have big potential...
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Latest 18Z/12Z Models



For some reason, this track looks familiar.
Quoting sailingallover:

When I talked to my friends in Culebra a couple hours ago they were asking why I was not there just in case...the harbor there is the best place to be in a boat in a storm.
I would have had to leave Saturday..but didn't for the last 36 hours it would have been crazy to try to go over there even though it's only 18 miles. Did anybody expect this wave to slow down and the convection to sit over us this long on Saturday?
So maybe a little early planning is best although I don't think anything happened this time..but it would have been very difficult for me to do anything yesterday or today..

Did you see the huge wave that just came off of africa? in the latest pass, there seems to be a circulation, and high winds.
Quoting reedzone:
18Z runs didn't shift left, they just came into a better agreement, north shift is a good way to call it. They shifted left some, and others shifted to the right, away from Southern Texas/Mexico and further away from Cuba.

??
See storm2 thats what i dont like. Dont want to see that strenthen and skirt the keys and then decide she wants to see santa claus via the pinellas county highway.
Quoting AlexEmmett:

the water its near is hotter then meghan fox


i dunno man. lol
Quoting reedzone:


Northward shift, thats what I call it, definitely not hooking towards the west as the 12Z.. More of a WNW track.
Well you're calling it incorrectly. You could only call the shift seen on the 18z runs 2 things, and that is a southward shift or a shift towards the left. In no way did the models move towards the north.
those tracks to the right the past run not correct alot shifted to the left
the question is how far left will it shift
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well you're calling it incorrectly. You could only call the shift seen on the 18z runs 2 things, and that is a southward shift or a shift towards the left. In no way did the models move towards the north.


agreed not sure what reed is seeing
Quoting StormW:


shift caster.

Mr. Storm, have you heard from 456 lately ?
1197. unf97
Quoting StormW:


I know that...only thing I was doing was calling for a shift left at 18Z


Yes you did StormW. I remembered that post a couple of hours ago, and you nailed that left shift for the next run at 18Z. That's why you are so respected sir!!
Quoting patrikdude2:


Dark purple looks scary.


So many things left to happen. I kinda thought a track in between the light purple and light blue.

I heard the term "cone of uncertainty" one time being used to determine the landfall of a hurricane.
Quoting StormW:


?????????


Well what I meant to say was (sigh, rubs his forehead) while some shifted left, others like the BAM model shifted right, well north actually.. Like look at the 12Z runs of the BAMM runs, notice the hook westward.. Then look at the new runs and you'll see a shift to the right in the end, no hook to the west, a general west-northwestward direction.. That's what I meant to say, in conclusion, the models have come into a better alignment.
Quoting StormW:


shift caster.


most could take out the F! LOL
1202. FLdewey
Quoting StormW:


shift caster.


HAHAHA... that one made me shift a brick.
The 97L reminds me Jeanne (2004) ... Haiti could be seriously affected in a few days
1204. est1986
come to louisiana please! :D
1206. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well you're calling it incorrectly. You could only call the shift seen on the 18z runs 2 things, and that is a southward shift or a shift towards the left. In no way did the models move towards the north.

it kinda doesnt matter until we have a LLC.
Seems to me people do not know their Directions ( west,north,south,east ) The disturbed weather definitely took a SW Shift.
Quoting Drakoen:


19.5N 68.2W

ditto and it looks like it's breaking free of PR finally..
see what the wind and pressure do at arecibo
If it turns westerly and drops
Quoting gator23:

it kinda doesnt matter until we have a LLC.
We have a LLC and 1 correct initialization point.
if you look at the map of the models straight on with both eyes open, they shift left. but if you close your right eye, they shift right.
Quoting StormW:


?????????


StormW~ Great call today. You the man.

Sheri
1213. gator23
Quoting StormW:


'xcuse me...hi! Which way are the tracks pointing more from 12Z to 18Z?

12Z


18Z


oh sorry i forgot my sarcasm flag, Sarcasm flag up.
Quoting btwntx08:
i was one of those that expected that shift to the left
1215. FLdewey
Reed's computer desk obviously leans.


Big wave from Africa coming!
1217. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have a LLC and 1 correct initialization point.

where is the LLC.
Quoting FLdewey:


one hop this time
one hop this time
reverse,reverse
slide to the left
slide to the right
reverse,reverse

This is the perfect 97L track forecast. Just wait.
MS/AL/Panahandle Hurricane in the cards for early next week... which could actually possibly help push a lot of the oil back out to sea? possibly?
lets hope not i do not wanted this invest 97L GO IN THE GOM.
Quoting StormW:


shift caster.


There's a lot of shift being tossed around on the blog all the sudden. I think everyone should just take a deep breath and get their shift together.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have a LLC and 1 correct initialization point.


We have a potential LLC, still not closed yet.



ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA.
Quoting gator23:

where is the LLC.
AL, 97, 2010072018, , BEST, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 1012, DB,
The models are guessing, having no definitive LLC, it's all a guess. This board places way too much emphasis on modeling, especially when there's little to "model."

Let's get an LLC, a bit stouter and stacked system, then the models will likely have a more significant grip on the system. Right now, they're more likened to one wearing a blindfold, throwing darts at a target. When they can see, they'll be much more accurate.
Quoting sailingallover:

ditto and it looks like it's breaking free of PR finally..
see what the wind and pressure do at arecibo
If it turns westerly and drops


Yep. Should see better definition, that lower circulation, and pretty much all the ingredients comming together.

Does anyone think that the big african wave could 'sacrifice' itself to moisten up the atmosphere and get rid of some of the SAL?

Noticed that models have shifted left, hope it doesn't affect the oil spill too much!
Quoting est1986:
come to louisiana please! :D

wishcaster lol
Pressures beginning to drop in Puerto Rico.


warm waters ahead of 97L
1231. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 97, 2010072018, , BEST, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 1012, DB,

hmmm...
Quoting sporteguy03:

He is around I know he said he only comes on occasionally to the blog, although it would be nice to hear his input today.


It would be nice, I really like what 456 and StormW has to say, there just about on the same page when it comes to this stuff. We miss ya 456.

Sheri
Quoting StormW:


'xcuse me...hi! Which way are the tracks pointing more from 12Z to 18Z?

12Z


18Z



StormW....what do you think of SE LA/SW MS getting a major cane out of this? Any reality in that???
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


We have a potential LLC, still not closed yet.



ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA.
Isn't a circulation that is in the lower levels a LLC? In the TWO they said that it had an area of low pressure (evident on satellite and surface observations).
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Pressures beginning to drop in Puerto Rico.
must be a sign of a T.D. forming....?
Quoting patrikdude2:


Big wave from Africa coming!
WOW THAT WAVE COMING OFF OF AFRICA IS BIG WITH SOME SPIN TO IT.
Quoting gator23:

oh sorry i forgot my sarcasm flag, Sarcasm flag up.


I had no idea it was ever down...
1239. leo305
we do have a low level center, it just isn't closed yet.. once it's closed, we have a TD.
Quoting mikatnight:


There's a lot of shift being tossed around on the blog all the sudden. I think everyone should just take a deep breath and get their shift together.


And some will be getting their shift out of town...
Quoting StormW:


No, I haven't...in fact, haven't seen Levi either.

They've both been extremely quiet lately, I love to hear they're input on matters as well yours.
For it being just an invest area, I'm surprised at how good the models are agreeing... well actually they agreed better on the 12z run than they did for the 18z..
Quoting StormW:
Now, on model guidance...do I believe the actual tracking? Not at this time. Best things for systems like this is satellite imagery and forecast steering layers maps.
Steering from PSU shows about the same thing as the models in terms of track.
StormW....what do you think of SE LA/SW MS getting a major cane out of this? Any reality in that???


I can answer that. YES...it's possible. It's theoretically possible that a cat 5 will be bearing down on the area in less than a week.

which, imho...will happen
Quoting leo305:
we do have a low level center, it just isn't closed yet.. once it's closed, we have a TD.

What location?
1247. Drakoen
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
The models are guessing, having no definitive LLC, it's all a guess. This board places way too much emphasis on modeling, especially when there's little to "model."

Let's get an LLC, a bit stouter and stacked system, then the models will likely have a more significant grip on the system. Right now, they're more likened to one wearing a blindfold, throwing darts at a target. When they can see, they'll be much more accurate.


There is a low pressure center north of the eastern tip of Hispaniola that is discernable on satellite imagery. According to the cimss vorticity charts this is stacked fairly up to 700mb.

Enough vorticity for a computer to model.
Quoting StormW:
Now, on model guidance...do I believe the actual tracking? Not at this time. Best things for systems like this is satellite imagery and forecast steering layers maps.


I've nothing to say, just think that bears repeating
No no no, you all don't understand, I'm not talking about the dynamic models..



Notice a westward, left hook at the end of the BAMM runs..

Now check these out..



Better agreement, some went north, some went south and came closer together.. That's what I'm trying to explain.. But nevermind.
Quoting StormW:


I gotta wait for the updated shear forecast map. As of the 12Z run, upper air pattern didn't support a major.


ok...thanks! Keep me in mind if your "feelings" change! :)
Quoting patrikdude2:


Big wave from Africa coming!


Way scary stuff.
1253. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Isn't a circulation that is in the lower levels a LLC? In the TWO they said that it had an area of low pressure (evident on satellite and surface observations).

well, for me the LLC means a circulation down to the surface that is vigorous, and formed. The LLC is forming, but at this stage new LLC's can form anywhere.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
WOW THAT WAVE COMING OFF OF AFRICA IS BIG WITH SOME SPIN TO IT.
Link Yes it's a large one...and appears to have at least a partially closed low level circulation.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

What location?
The area of low pressure is located north of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Below are the exact coordinates.

AL, 97, 2010072018, , BEST, 0, 195N, 682W, 30, 1012, DB,
Quoting gator23:

well, for me the LLC means a circulation down to the surface that is vigorous, and formed. The LLC is forming, but at this stage new LLC's can form anywhere.
Well it does have an LLC.
1259. xcool
1260. leo305
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

What location?


20N 68.2W

based on visible satellite.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Isn't a circulation that is in the lower levels a LLC? In the TWO they said that it had an area of low pressure (evident on satellite and surface observations).


They said it SUGGESTS a surface center is becoming better defined. Until it's closed, it's not a surface low, it is a center of circulation.
UNISYS View:


Puerto Rico NWS Radar:

hey hey hey
Quoting StormW:


LMAO Flood!


LOL...it's true, huh?
1266. leo305
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


They said it SUGGESTS a surface center is becoming better defined. Until it's closed, it's not a surface low, it is a center of circulation.


actually it is a surface low, just not completely closed off.
The GFDL and HWRF did shift right guys. These models are very reliable with tropical systems.
1268. gator23
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well it does have an LLC.

it is not a closed LLC, it is not there yet. We are splitting hairs. Florida from Jax to the Keys needs to watch out. If the storm strengthens then they could just as easily shift north.
Last update of his own blog:
Posted by: Weather456, 5:08 AM EST on July 19, 2010
I really wouldn't count on the Bams models.
Look, am I the only one here that thinks Miriam Stockly has a great voice?
NHC 60%

Link
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


They said it SUGGESTS a surface center is becoming better defined. Until it's closed, it's not a surface low, it is a center of circulation.
An area of low pressure is obviously there.
looks more and more likely south florida will have rough weather this weekend regardless
1276. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
Reed's computer desk obviously leans.
lol
wow this blog has officially gone NUTS lol!! hate to see it when it does become Bonnie...
1278. gator23
Quoting StormW:


Only in short term.

3 days until landfall is what the GFS is showing is that not considered short term?(sarcasm flag down) I legitmately want to know this.
1279. Drakoen
You can see the circulation on radar north of the eastern tip of Hispaniola
Quoting StormW:


Only in short term.



hmmm......right?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
An area of low pressure is obviously there.


He's incorrect. You can have a surface low without having a closed circulation.
1284. FLdewey
Oz is charging the batteries in his baseball helmet.
July Development probability :



August Development probability :



interesting..
1286. gator23
Quoting StormW:


For FL.

right that is what Jeffs was talking about, Florida. the GFDL and HWRF models have shifted north in his estimation.
I dont like the gfs
oh hell no!!! should I expect tropical storm conditions Friday night in South Florida or just a rain event? I need to make sure flight plans will not be affected :(
Quoting Drakoen:
You can see the circulation on radar north of the eastern tip of Hispaniola


you can finally see some of the storms just North of DR starting to drift west... A western direction is setting up now
Band on the southern side of the circulation is developing. Circulation near 20N/67W.
Quoting MississippiWx:


He's incorrect. You can have a surface low without having a closed circulation.
I understand that, I just wanted him to know that there is an obvious area of low pressure. Also, a circulation is the center of the system, depending on what level it reaches to is how it is called. Obviously, there's an area of low pressure, 97L has an LLC. Yeah, a surface low is a surface low regardless of being open, closed, etc, etc...Lol.
Interesting... 12Z brought a shift north hitting most of SEFL. The GFDL model was even a little more north nailing me with the eye at 78hrs. gfs shifted a little south, may see a little more shift overall to the north but probably not a whole lot. It looks gamely..like a deepening inverted trough with bad intentions. Upper Divergence is excellent (40), lower convergence is pretty good (20). I'm seeing varying values for sheer depending on source Somewhere between 0-20kts..maybe, more in the most northern reaches. Looks to have decreased slightly the last few satellite frames.
Quoting gator23:

oh sorry i forgot my sarcasm flag, Sarcasm flag up.



That would be a Sar-Caster

Until we have an established area of low pressure, the track remains uncertain.
1296. teammc
StormW, are you going to update your blog soon?
Quoting leelee75k:
oh hell no!!! should I expect tropical storm conditions Friday night in South Florida or just a rain event? I need to make sure flight plans will not be affected :(
make plans for a rough weekend but it appers we may have a tropical system. it could be a depression storm or hurricane in the general area.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
97L 18Z SHIPS Text, track from OFCI.


I'll be watching those cloud top temps ... seems to be a significant limiting factor ... only -52 toward the end of the run.
1299. unf97
NWS, Key West, FL

Long Term Discussion

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING AS
FAR WESTWARD AS HISPANIOLA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 5 DAY...BUT THEY ARE AT LEAST MORE IN LINE THAN WHAT WAS
BEING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO. MOST IF NOT ALL ARE NOW SHOWING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION APPROACHING FLORIDA EITHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
LATE THURSDAY...OR CLOSER TO THE CUBAN COAST WHILE LAGGING A LITTLE
IN TIME. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SINCE IT IS ANTICIPATED
TO SLIDE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AT THIS
POINT...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAKE SOME WIND ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS.
THIS IS MORE IN REGARDS TO DIRECTIONAL CHANGES THAN TO INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. PLAN TO BACK THE WINDS STEADILY FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AT THIS POINT...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY FOCUS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THAT IS NOT
TO DOWNPLAY EITHER SENSIBLE ELEMENTS LOCALLY. INDEED...WILL CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THE CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AIRBORNE
INVESTIGATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY...
Quoting reedzone:
Until we have an established area of low pressure, the track remains uncertain.


I'm pretty sure that there is always some uncertainty in the track. :)
Aloha Gang -

Looks like I better get a fresh coat of Rubber paint on my Old House in florida....
Rain Rain Go away!
1304. gator23
Quoting StormW:


Ok...thought he meant longer term. Was that the 18Z run?

the lastest run, of the GFDL has landfall near the Titusville area.
NEW BLOG!!!







I believe a T.D. is bound to form later this evening.
Quoting reedzone:
Until we have an established area of low pressure, the track remains uncertain.
Did you know see Drak's post? 97L has an LLC that is stacked through the 700mb level. Models are and should be doing a good job with 97L by now.
Track is a toss right now..anywhere from north coast of Cuba to Mid FL more likely depending on how much it develops and how fast it starts moving and the trough high combo coming off the East Coast later in the week. I'd favor South FL right unless it really strengthens
That's fine, Drak. Maybe so. I guess that's why the models are still hopping around, huh? ;P It's the cyclo phase still and LLC or not, modeling will hardly be reliable with track or intensity. They're a tool, sure, but way overused and expectations held by many at this stage.

Let's get a bonified system, plz all, before folks start yacking CAT 5 doom for NOLA. LOL!
Hey mlc... long time, no see.
NEW BLOG!!!
NEW MODEL update!


Quoting DestinJeff:


oh now that is a beauty!


TY I think its my fav so far
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Did you know see Drak's post? 97L has an LLC that is stacked through the 700mb level. Models are and should be doing a good job with 97L by now.


Sometimes I wonder if he has any idea what is going on.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
That's fine, Drak. Maybe so. I guess that's why the models are still hopping around, huh? ;P It's the cyclo phase still and LLC or not, modeling will hardly be reliable with track or intensity. They're a tool, sure, but way overused and expectations held by many at this stage.

Let's get a bonified system, plz all, before folks start yacking CAT 5 doom for NOLA. LOL!


Awwww...you take all the fun out of it...**sarcasm flag is up**
Quoting FLdewey:


HAHAHA... that one made me shift a brick.


ROFL !! That was funny!!! Hi everyone..Hi StormW !! :)
Quoting Floodman:


Awwww...you take all the fun out of it...**sarcasm flag is up**

Again.. that is a Sar-Caster (taps mic... is this thing even on... check one two.. check one two)
so is it more like this or more east and north?



North shift in track.
Quoting FLdewey:


Some counties (Like Brevard) will do an evac of low lying areas and manufactured homes for some tropical storms. If you were in a mandatory evac area for a cat 1 I would assume it would be for flood concerns or manufactured homes.

Except for the flood threat I think the "mandatory" evacuations for cat 1's are overblown.


I don't even put up shutters for a Cat 1.
will this one be a 1998 Hurricane Georges track?? if so, it could scare the crap out of New orleans and then plow into MS/AL...
1325. Patrap

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





1326. Patrap
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 97
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html.

The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters
Quoting mikatnight:


There's a lot of shift being tossed around on the blog all the sudden. I think everyone should just take a deep breath and get their shift together.




What shifty thing to say!
I think that it is too early to settle on a specific track. I think that we should wait until later tonight or tomorrow morning to evaluate the most likely scenario
Quoting WINDSMURF:
I think that it is too early to settle on a specific track. I think that we should wait until later tonight or tomorrow morning to evaluate the most likely scenario
Quoting Floodman:


Awwww...you take all the fun out of it...**sarcasm flag is up**


Ok...

Green Flag = Safe Surf Conditions

Yellow Flag = Use Caution

Purple Flag = Dangerous Marine Life Present

Red Flag = Dangerous Surf Conditions

Double Red Flags = Hurricane

My question... What does the sarcasm flag look like?

IMO until a storm is classified as such most models only slightly handle track about 12 hours out on intensity out any further than that is a crap shoot,,, WAITING
We all remember the Initial Track on Ike Don't we Guys....South Florida could be a good bet but anything else after that is all speculation
Quoting Baybuddy:


Ok...

Green Flag = Safe Surf Conditions

Yellow Flag = Use Caution

Purple Flag = Dangerous Marine Life Present

Red Flag = Dangerous Surf Conditions

Double Red Flags = Hurricane

My question... What does the sarcasm flag look like?



The blog has slowed down during the last half hour?????
1335. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting Baybuddy:


Ok...

Green Flag = Safe Surf Conditions

Yellow Flag = Use Caution

Purple Flag = Dangerous Marine Life Present

Red Flag = Dangerous Surf Conditions

Double Red Flags = Hurricane

My question... What does the sarcasm flag look like?



Here's your flag....

Great update! thanks!
Steve in Key West
Quoting unf97:
NWS, Key West, FL

Long Term Discussion

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING AS
FAR WESTWARD AS HISPANIOLA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 5 DAY...BUT THEY ARE AT LEAST MORE IN LINE THAN WHAT WAS
BEING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO. MOST IF NOT ALL ARE NOW SHOWING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION APPROACHING FLORIDA EITHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
LATE THURSDAY...OR CLOSER TO THE CUBAN COAST WHILE LAGGING A LITTLE
IN TIME. A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
THANKS TO THIS SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS COMPLICATES THE FORECAST SINCE IT IS ANTICIPATED
TO SLIDE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AT THIS
POINT...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAKE SOME WIND ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS.
THIS IS MORE IN REGARDS TO DIRECTIONAL CHANGES THAN TO INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. PLAN TO BACK THE WINDS STEADILY FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AT THIS POINT...HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY FOCUS NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THAT IS NOT
TO DOWNPLAY EITHER SENSIBLE ELEMENTS LOCALLY. INDEED...WILL CONTINUE
TO RAMP UP THE CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AIRBORNE
INVESTIGATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY...



Trying again.... Sarcasm Flag