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97L a heavy rain threat to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:51 PM GMT on October 03, 2010

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 200 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today through Tuesday. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and have increased considerably since yesterday, thanks to the presence of an upper level trough of low pressure making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing high wind shear of 20 -25 knots, though, so development of 97L is not expected today. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Thursday. The ECMWF model continues to be the only model showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Thursday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic beginning on Monday, and for Haiti beginning on Tuesday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Flood waters receding in northeastern North Carolina
Flood waters are receding in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor caused major flooding that put many homes under five feet of water. North Carolina was deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Representatives from Portlight.org are surveying the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to begin identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the Portlight.org blog.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 9N, 44W is fairly close to having a closed circulation, as seen on a 8:04am EDT pass by the ASCAT satellite. However, satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. The disturbance is headed to the northwest, and the computer models predict the disturbance will not affect any land areas for at least the next seven days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters
Saving a few...
Saving a few...
items by placing them on the roof. Vanceboro, NC

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. 7544
morning all looks like 98l may try to get started in the caribiean ?
Quoting severstorm:
Morning everyone, 54.5 in wc fl


63 here north of Orlando. A definite crisp in the air now. I think La Nina is so strong that it's resembling a El-Nino type pattern from last year but with other atmospheric conditions to produce such a rare pattern during a La Nina year. The storm track appears to be leaving off where we left last winter and spring and that is trough in the east and ridge out west.
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like 98l may try to get started in the caribiean ?
Did you mean 97L ?
surprised we did not get a decent cyclone over the oil spill area there were lots of posts early in the yr dreading what could happen. guess what oil is left is getting eaten by microorganisms
If my post 502 pans out then FL is in for cold winter AGAIN!
GM all finally gonna cool down in so fla 70.8 at my house DP about same felt cool anyway..
A big 10-4 good buddies !
50's and 60's all the way down to Cancun! WOW!!! Even some cooler air in the Cayman's this morning. Look at the temp in Cancun right now.

Cancun, Mexico WeatherSave Location
Updated: Oct 4, 2010, 6:47am Local TimeUPDATE DATAView Options
Right Now Next 36 Hours
Today Tonight Tomorrow

Sunny Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
63F
Feels Like: 63
Past 24-hr precip is only available for the contiguous U.S. Chance of Precip:
20% Chance of Precip:
20% Chance of Precip:
20%
Wind:
From W at 3mph Wind:

Hide detailsHumidity: 100%
Dew Point:63
Pressure: 29.95 in
Visibility: 7.0 mi
UV Index: 0 - Low
509. ackee
97L will just be big rain maker for ,the Greater Anttllies hopeful not jamaica. The sun is out today frist time in days
Earthquake in Cuba.


5.1
Date-Time

* Monday, October 04, 2010 at 11:48:34 UTC
* Monday, October 04, 2010 at 07:48:34 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.807°N, 75.416°W
Depth 26 km (16.2 miles)
Region CUBA REGION
Distances 45 km (25 miles) SSW of Guantanamo, Cuba
50 km (30 miles) ESE of Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
810 km (500 miles) ESE of HAVANA, Cuba
825 km (510 miles) SE of Miami, Florida
It's warmer in S FL then C America this morning. This cool push has went so far south is just absolutly amazing for early October.
Good Morning...52 at the coast and 47 inland at Panama City this morning...wow...quite a contrast to what we have been use to. Winds are from the north keeping the cool, dry air mass coming. Everyone take care.

v/r

Jon
This cold front not cleared FL it cleared the Yucatan as well!
Quoting Eagle101:
Good Morning...52 at the coast and 47 inland at Panama City this morning...wow...quite a contrast to what we have been use to. Winds are from the north keeping the cool, dry air mass coming. Everyone take care.

v/r

Jon

47 inland at Panama City...WOW. That's chilly
Quoting cat5hurricane:

47 inland at Panama City...WOW. That's chilly


Upper 50's to low 60's in the Yucatan right now.
518. JRRP
.
519. ackee
SEE most of the reliable models are hinting possible low forming in the SW carrbbean , that might have better chance for tropical devlopment if LOW does form.
beautiful this morning. Makes you want to take a nap under a tree.

gfs it seems splits this system. the strongest part developing exiting north out to sea while the weaker part moves into the south western carib. probally pretty close
Quoting Jeff9641:


Upper 50's to low 60's in the Yucatan right now.

Talk about a cold push. Man!
Good Morning
An Incredible light-show last evening over the Venezuelan Andes, seen from my house.
Several hours of continuous lightening that migrated south and brought 1" of rain here in heavy showers after midnight with Rumbles and Flashes south of me.
Flood warnings in Barbados and Trinidad for today (have not checked Grenada).
Trinidad conditions now-
Cloudy
temp 75F
Humid 100%
press 1011 rising
wind calm.
Quoting IKE (#488):
GOM water temps....



Cooler than they were back in August, for sure...but 26.C is the nominal temp required to sustain cyclogenesis, so virtually the entire GOM is still warm enough for activity (those little purple pockets of sub-26 aren't big enough to matter). Yes, I know it takes more than warm water to make a hurricane...but cold water can kill one, and that water's not cold. Yet.
Quoting pottery (#525):
Good Morning
An Incredible light-show last evening over the Venezuelan Andes, seen from my house.
Several hours of continuous lightening that migrated south and brought 1" of rain here in heavy showers after midnight with Rumbles and Flashes south of me.


I'm not sure exactly where you live, so I have to ask: was that Catatumbo lightning?
The deepest push of cool air went due S to the Yucatan from the northern gulf coast and modified some as it pushed toward the FL Penisula.
Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not sure exactly where you live, so I have to ask: was that Catatumbo lightning?
I am in Trinidad. 11n 61w.
What is 'catatumbo' lightening??
Quoting pottery:
I am in Trinidad. 11n 61w.
What is 'catatumbo' lightening??


"The "Relámpago del Catatumbo" (Catatumbo lightning) is a phenomenon that occurs over the marshlands at the Maracaibo mouth of the river, where lightning storms occur for about 10 hours a night, 140 to 160 nights a year, for a total of about 1.2 million lightning discharges per year. The light from this storm activity can be seen up to 400 km away and has been used for ship navigation; it is also known as the "Maracaibo Beacon" for this reason.[1]"

from wiki
Quoting pottery (#529):
I am in Trinidad. 11n 61w.
What is 'catatumbo' lightening??


Catatumbo lightning
532. JRRP
Quoting BobinTampa:


"The "Relámpago del Catatumbo" (Catatumbo lightning) is a phenomenon that occurs over the marshlands at the Maracaibo mouth of the river, where lightning storms occur for about 10 hours a night, 140 to 160 nights a year, for a total of about 1.2 million lightning discharges per year. The light from this storm activity can be seen up to 400 km away and has been used for ship navigation; it is also known as the "Maracaibo Beacon" for this reason.[1]"

from wiki

That ship navigation tidbit is really something. Did not know that...
Just looked at 'catatumbo L' ... Fascinating!
Occurs at Lake Maracaibo, which is a long way west of me, so I doubt I could see that.
West of me is the Orinoco Delta, which is a vast area of swamp and submerged forest, particularly at this time of year when the Orinoco is in full flow.
The Orinoco affects the water salinity here big-time, as far north as the north point of Tobago, where 'islands' of floating water-plants and all kinds of stuff are floating by...
Good Morning All, excellent light show last night, accompanied by heavy rains and thunder.

Current Conditions in Barbados

Updated: 35 min 33 sec ago
All Business closed until Noon, Schools closed

Monday
Thunderstorm. High: 30 °C . Wind SSE 36 km/h . 70% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 15.64 mm). Heat Index: 36 °C .
Flood Warning posted.

Mostly Cloudy
29 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the SSE
Pressure: 1011 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 34 °C
Visibility: 9.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 304 m
Scattered Clouds 426 m
Mostly Cloudy 3048 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 56 m
Quoting pottery:
Just looked at 'catatumbo L' ... Fascinating!
Occurs at Lake Maracaibo, which is a long way west of me, so I doubt I could see that.
West of me is the Orinoco Delta, which is a vast area of swamp and submerged forest, particularly at this time of year when the Orinoco is in full flow.
The Orinoco affects the water salinity here big-time, as far north as the north point of Tobago, where 'islands' of floating water-plants and all kinds of stuff are floating by...


Yeah, that's quite a ways from Trinidad. I've been in Panama several times recently, and I've seen it once from just east of PC. Fascinating indeed...