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96L weakens; political storm at NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update
Thanks for the update!!
thanks for the update Jeff.
The sting of the NOAA invest on the NHC, (sandcrab posted it in my blog last night)..is very disturbing.I know I will send my words of disdain about it to NOAA.

I hope everyone who can does the same. We cannot let crazed policy makers at NOAA disrupt the confidence we have in the NHC. Bill Proenza will get my full support.
I'll repeat what I said at this time yesterday.

It already is a TD. (It meets the meteorlogical definition.) The NHC hesitates to make it official because the prognosis is so bleak. They will hold off declaring it until it is obviously a threat. Is there anyone here who doubts that this would already have advisories on it if it was in the GOM?
its not a TD yet. and dry air surrounds the system. At this point i don't think it will develop.
I dont think it will either. (Develope further) I never have.
Even though its fighting the dry air it can only do that for so long before it dissapates.
Of course, I've been wrong before....
darn 10th
anyone have a current graphic of the MJO?
To be sure..we look forward to the story on the ongoing Political wranglings of NOAA with the NHC. The Public trust cannot be overshadowed by these political overtones.
We deserve to have the NHC unencumbered by the red state,blue state scene. The People are the ones who suffer. Again ,.thanks for bringing us the facts..as well as the Nation and the World.
My hats off to Dr. Masters,Margiekieper for their dedication to the truth,and the people.
Good morning all. LOL.
i still don't know how the models have the system making it pass the Lesser Anitilles.
I think that 96L is done
for now i'm gonna agreee thundercloud.
This however mean it is done compleatly I would watch the wave as it enters the carrabean
it should pick up speed soon...
Weak low riht over the tampa bay area with trough axis just to the north across psco county and PWATS are over 2.25 with saturation at all levels of the atmosphere and no caping at all.



We could have some slow moving huge rain producers today, that classic wall of water kind of tropical convection, just what Florida needs.
''I don't think that Bill can continue here,'' said James Franklin, one of five senior forecasters at the center. ``I don't think he can be an effective leader.''
-From the Miami Herald

Link 96L will be going poof within the next 24-36 hours I think.
lets see Bill has address the issues that forecasters at the NHC don't want to address themselves and therefore want to spite back. I hope Bill puts up a fight and a good one too.
i think it will develop.
Give it some time.
If it is not gone by tomorrow we have a TS saturday.But its in trouble.
I think it will overcome this.
the Atlantic and the Caribbean is bone dry only place with moisture is the GOM. seems that dry is really closing in on the system. Before you know it we have a dissapating naked swirl.
apocalyps- What makes you think that?? Like Drakoen said the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are bone dry.
Happy Independence Day


i dont think this thing has a chance anymore guys... it looked like it did yesterday, but the air wasnt being dried up right infront of it so quickly... today its like someone dropped a load of Bounty all around 96L and is slowly or quickly going to dry 96L up as well.
the only reason i thought it could survive today is because there seems to be moisture ahead of the system, but there is just dry air now.
Anyone notice something here in relation to what weathersp said?
Link
but if anything, this should call our attention to the fact that Africa may be quite a player this season... if its been generating such intense waves (even if they havent really made it), can you imagine what the Cape Verde season will be like when things are all for things developing off of Africa?
i'm seeing a similar pattern to 2006... troughs comming of... dry air..
It still has a chance.
Small waves are able to hold in dry air,sometimes.
I still dont see it go poof.
And it is still a long way to the carribean.
Dry air could be gone by the time it gets there.
But,ofcourse it is a small chance.
I give it 10% for the moment.
Growcartmozart- Look at the Water Vapor
growcartmozart look at the water vapor loop. the only mositure is comming for troughs. If this pattern continues we can look at a moderate to below normal season. still keep you guards up just making an observation.
Thats strange, the rest of my comment didn't post. Anyway here it is again:

the brown stuff is the dry air and the whites blues and purples all represent moisture.
water vapor on NHC satalite page the dark colors are dry air and the sahara dust is what makes the air dry
you can thank dry air/SAL for the demise of this system.
it is not gone yet.
Notice the SAL/ dry air is moving into the east Caribbean. Also the dry is moving to the SW. starting to supress and take away mositure from 96L.
The good things about un-active seasons:
Less hurricanes
The trolls don't get hurricanes hitting the US

The bad things about un-active seasons:
The trolls complain about the un-active season

24 hours till death of 96L
It does not need mositure to hold.
it could hold on his own.
But weakening first.
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 1:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

24 hours till death of 96L


maybe less lol..
apocalyps- With all the dry air its going to go from this:
Link

to this:
Link
this should explain it.

It's funny because yesterday & last night people on this site believed 96L could still make it and develope and other sites didn't now this site is giving 96L the death kiss and other sites want to still watch it & give it a chance. Just thought it was funny but we'll see what happens.
it might be able to go through 1 more dinural max phase, which is its only chance of developing in my opnion; otherwise its dead.
Looks like 96L might be fighting a losing battle, but one never knows it might still become a TD or TS.
amazinwxman the dinural phase is tricky. it looks like something at one point and then looks like nothing at another. Dinural max and dinural min.
the doc says it could make a comeback so we will see.
here the 12z!
Seems the models still have faith in it lol. Time will tell.
Its easy to say it will die.
The chance is much bigger that you are wright.
But i go for the hard way and say it will weaken,hold and develop.
But the chance is bigger that i am wrong.
But hey,i dont care.
58. amd
this invest is just about done. Way too much dry air in the area to allow for any development.
all the models have it beggining its intensification in 24 hours.
5 models predict a TS. LMAO.
never seen a wave with legs.
The problem with these persistant struggling systems is that if this ever does enter a favorable area this could explode. Joe B mentioned this a few yrs ago on his show.
Posted By: leftovers at 2:25 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

The problem with these persistant struggling systems is that if this ever does enter a favorable area this could explode. Joe B mentioned this a few yrs ago on his show
.

yea that is true but it has yet to enter one. The best it can do for itslef if follow the ITCZ moisture to sustain itself. It may get one more dinural max phase so we'll see what happens.
very nice synopsis StormW.
Actually, Less hurricanes counts on the "bad things" list.
Do the models take in account the dry air surrounding storms??
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:52 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

growcartmozart look at the water vapor loop. the only mositure is comming for troughs. If this pattern continues we can look at a moderate to below normal season. still keep you guards up just making an observation.





That is not necessarily true, I have seen many times that tropical cyclones have a circulation full of deep convection when the atlantic is full of dry air.


Why is this you might ask? Well just look at how a tropical cyclone gets stronger, its easy once you looki at that, the storm sucks up massive amounts of moisture from the warm water.


See you have to remember that water vapor imagery ONLY represents the upper levels of the atmosphere. Not the surface. The low levels below all that is full of moisture do to vast warm waters.


So when a tropical cyclone develops, it takes massive amounts of moisture and energy off the warm water. This creates deep layer moisture and has no problem fighting the dry air aloft because it creastes its own environment as true tropical cyclones always do.


What will weaken them is the dust that will come off Africa at times, the dust will suck int the storms circulation and will dry out the air within it some which can weaken a tropical cyclone rapidly sometimes.



So, this does not mean it will be "an inactive season".

Not only that its July. Lets not spin around cornors, even if we did not have a single td this month. The season could easily still be very active. It means nothing to rest of the season whats currently going on.


Jusr remember that.


the coc is under the heavy convection so it doesnt' seem to want to die yet. seems to be playing some mind games with us before it decides what it actually wants to do.
Here it is!

The GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation for June 2007!




Set to the music of Blue Oyster Cult, you'll see the first official tropical storm of the season give Florida its first meaningful rainfall in many months!

Enjoy! July is next!
True Jedkings and if 96L makes it to 50W where waters are warmer, it might have a chance. Although by than it will have to find shear if it wants to enter the Caribbean.
lol i was jsut making a current observation jedkins calm down. Thanks for that explanation though. It still has a chance, that i can agree with, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.
See its still July and cape verde systems just are very rare, it doesn't hve to do with dry air over the atlantic, as long as there is no dust. Once a tropical cyclone gets going, it can handle dry air aloft pretty well.



See this 96L, hasn't "gotten going" yet to begin with. So at this time dry air is afecting and inhibiting it.
Looks like it is hanging in there to me. You all already bought the urn for this invest. Not so early
WPB the current model guidance suggest that the system will move to the northern Carribbean, if it survives.
i doubt models don't take into consideration dry air. An dlike Jedkins said it can still feed of the warm waters of the Atlantic.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

lol i was jsut making a current observation jedkins calm down. Thanks for that explanation though. It still has a chance, that i can agree with, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.




I'm not mad at ya no problem, just remember I always post that way when I make a point, no hard thoughts there, thats how I do it lol.
Hmmmm.......

Link
Link
I know July is typically pretty slow, but in 2005 there were 5 named storms and 2 hurricanes, both major. A typical season is a boring season like last year.
96l suffers day effect dont be fooled tracer plum of moisture in a line all the way to extreme southern windwards after that cari. she holding weak but holding remember still invest nuttin more at moment things can change real quick day time max only just occurr
Didn't Dr. Master's say if it did develop it would be slow going? I just don't see how it can survival all that dry air to the north.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

WPB the current model guidance suggest that the system will move to the northern Carribbean, if it survives.
i doubt models don't take into consideration dry air. An dlike Jedkins said it can still feed of the warm waters of the Atlantic.




I don't think they do seem to take into consideration dry air.





Like I was decribing earlier, once a tropical cyclone gets its act together and its over warm water, it will create its own very moist environment so it won't have any trouble fighting the drier air aloft around it.



However, when systems haven't gotten their act together like 96L they still are greatly inhibited by dry air, and because its July, a number of factors work against it to get its act together.



93. eye
the center is no way fully exposed, jp, you have been saying that since it "developed" but I dont see it. My2cents
LOL eye!!! Look for yourself

A shot from a snowy day in Colorado...

Flag
Alberto and Barry's eyes were both completely exposed...
Morning All!

Noticed you asked for the MJO Drak!

CURRENT FROM YESTERDAY

FORECAST


Notice that the MJO that was supposed to be in the area this month is forecast to be delayed till next month. Also, 96L is going into the day very weak, I would be surprised if it was able to hang on. It will be moving into a very
subsident enviornment in the Caribb!
On the models, what does the straight black line represent labeled XTRP?


The XTRAP is not a model. It shows the general motion of the storm and does not predict movement.
Posted By: Growcartmozart at 2:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

On the models, what does the straight black line represent labeled XTRP?

Thx


where it thinks the system will go. The BAM models are good for weakers systems so you can use them too.
Happy 4th WU!


Audio Interview with Bill Proenza by the Miami Herald
Link
To send ones comments to NOAA ,heres the contact page..Link
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 2:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

LOL eye!!! Look for yourself





Its safe to say eye just got shut down. LOL
XTRAP -- simple extrapolated track. Assumes the storm just keeps going at the same speed and direction. No physics at all involved. Generally of no use except as a "what if" scenario.
guys its down to 1012 mb now in the 24 hour forecast.
as long as coc exsist any thing is possible convention firing south zone there exsist a proability of further convection organizing during dirural its only an invest which means a developeing area of disturb weather.
Jp Barry developed with high shear i did not run into it. that i remember. the convection was close to the low level circulation and only needed to be a little more organized to be a tropical Storm.
114. ryang
Yes Drakoen... Also the wave in front is creating moisture...
I agree JP! It is really getting old to hear the '06 comparison. It's not '06, it's '07. We are still in the very begining of the season. Of course the waves & blobs may not always develop. It's not Aug or Sept. yet. The pattern has not set up like '06 because it hasn't really set up yet at all. Relax guys lol. We still have months to go yet. The troughs are there ,yeah, they always will come down. What part they will play? Who knows yet. Have patience! Oh, & HAPPY 4th everyone!!!
119. ryang
LOL... 96L Looks more south than it ever was...
just stating the facts JP...
the picture that i posted was of the 12z. So i expect the next tropical outlook to be simlar to the 5:30 am one.
JP was have seen 96L expose herself (lol) before and she regained the convection over the COC.
125. ryang
If it is moving WEST... Lot's of moisture in front of it.

map

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:15 UTC, 39 minutes ago)
96L INVEST.25kts-1013mb-10.6N-43.0W
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Also, who can we write to showing our support for Mr. Proenza? Does anyone know? Poor guy has the guts to speak up & look what happens to him! I guess it doesn't matter what his experience is or that he only has the best interests of the people (us) at heart! That's a shame!
hey : CycloneOz.

Nice animation. You got one long animation like that for the cane season of '05?
I got individual clips but lookin for a complete movie type? infrared or visible?


130. ryang
JP like what??. There is no SAL in the caribbean... Shear might rise but that's about it...
I'm sure the folks at NOAA take into consideration the dry air in the upper levels but the system can still feed of the warm waters at the surface and support itself just like Jedkins said.
Seems to be moving at a pretty good clip now. Left something behind though, lol. Maybe it will pull out of the ITCZ now but, that would be sure death. There isn't a drop of moisture anywhere else and the ITCZ isn't exactly moisture laden either.
135. ryang
Lot's of dry air to the north, we will see.

map
Can't a system develop one of those anticyclone thingys so it can fight off the shear?? I doubt that 96L will do that.
I don't think so JP! It's hard to tell though because there are no high tops north of the ITCZ. All the high tops are confined to the ITCZ and South.
138. ryang
But if the wave around 55 WEST can create moisture, you never know.
Only annular hurricanes can truely, effectively fight off high shear.
This NHC thing seems very confusing to me.

"several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster"

It seems like we are seeing professionals going against professionals. That seems even more disturbing than the earlier spat between Proenza and the political head of the NWS.

Masters' report will be interesting reading.
Posted By: ryang at 3:05 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

But if the wave around 55 WEST can create moisture, you never know.


Thats a tropical wave.
Posted By: watchinwxnwpb at 3:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

Also, who can we write to showing our support for Mr. Proenza? Does anyone know? Poor guy has the guts to speak up & look what happens to him! I guess it doesn't matter what his experience is or that he only has the best interests of the people (us) at heart! That's a shame!
Patrap provided link in thread above your entry, I agree, we need more leaders to set aside their personal agendas and do what is in the best interest of our nation!
Going by the models, in 24 hours they continue its westward motion before WNW. They also have the system intensfying at that time. So time will tell. Also it will be past 55W isn't that what the requirement is for the RECON? I give it another day to impress me lol.
On its last legs....Dry air in control.

Exposed LLC.

FFF
hurricane23 didn't it do the exact same thing yesterday?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
151. ryang
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

totally agree Adrian

RIP 96L

for now, could make a comeback later on, if that circulation can stay intact


i agree.
ABNT20 KNHC 041509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Just a warm up before the real season starts.

Enjoy you 4th today.
155. eye
the air around the system and ahead isnt all the dry, to the N yeah, but it isnt heading to the N now is it? Yes, there is some dry air in the Carribean, but who knows if that will be the case when this slow moving wave/invest gets there. People have been calling it dead for 3 days now, and it is still around.
156. ryang
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:09 AM AST on July 04, 2007.

Thats a tropical wave.

Yes!!

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N53W 4N53W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

Link
158. eye
hmmmm, NHC is ususally the conservative ones, not this blog! lol
159. eye
it isnt as dry as it is to the N, there are sections in the Carribean that are dry as it is far to the N of the system...but right around the system, it isnt bone dry....at least not yet...if it was, there would be 0 convection....although it is limited, there is still convection.
96L playing mind games for now. To me 96L did the same thing yesterday with the exposed lol to the north of the convection, then the convection caught up. Who knows...

Hey Boys and Girls...What's going on in the Gulf?
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 3:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

You can very CLEARLY see the COC on that picture
Posted By: Chicklit at 3:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.


Hey Boys and Girls...What's going on in the Gulf?


mositure from the Gulf caused by a 1010mb low over land near Corpus Christi.
167. ryang
Good point Cane...
It's been raining here in East Central Florida all morning long...
Happy 4th everyone...how are the tropics today?

JP!!!!!!
96L shoudl be going through or is about to go through its dinural min phase. So this kind of organization is expected with it as of now.
Now just toss in some T-Storms and you'll have something to talk about. Very impressive circulation though. Good to study, if it is able to re-generate from ground zero.
174. eye
so, maybe it isnt dead afterall?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Posted By: eye at 3:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

so, maybe it isnt dead afterall?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


its not dead untill its declared dead by the NHC.
Very tough road today EYE. I wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. The expanding wind field has just been taking place in the last couple frames.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

its possible eye

circulation is impressive, it could easily hold form until it comes upon better conditions, I just feel it wont get those conditions unless it gets to the western caribbean


yea JP thats what i feel. Maybe somewhere liek the Bahamas or the Gulf. where there is more moisture in the upper levels for it to feed of.
thecanewhisper, i guess this is what the NHC is looking at the expanding wind field. So its still possible.
180. eye
I think if it runs into shear(at first the forcast was for none, now it is for some) it will be a gonner.....IF the shear forcast verifies, I dont see how such a small circulation can make it past it intact(where the better conditions would be waiting). It is like this tiny circulation has a couple more hurdles before those good conditions will exist.
A look at the AVN says 96 is trying to fill in the expansion with moisture, hummmm.
I dunno though, expanding field means more to keep filled with moisture.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1053 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE GATHERING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INLAND NORTH OF ORLANDO AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE PEAK TIME FOR LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER IS HEARD.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
WEAK STEERING LEVEL WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER STORMS TO DROP LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCAL FLOODING. DRIVERS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE... WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11 AM THIS MORNING AND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS PASS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY LOW THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH HAVE GENERATED LOCALLY HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...SOME EASTERLY SWELLS WILL WORK THEIR TOWARD THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE FOR SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE
CAUTION FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO COCOA BEACH...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WHERE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. RAINFALL SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR OBSERVED FLOODING.

$$

VOLKMER






compare this

with this:

Model guidance suggest it will only get into the eastern most portions of the Caribbean. The BAM models that do well with weaker systems show this.
96L,very nice coc and sw quadrant thunderstorms for an invest!!!
if you look at the lower level moisture you can see that moisture is filling in along with the wind field.
JP,
I just hope the NHC can work together with Mr.Proenza this is no time for fighting, you are a team not enemies.
lol i don't know all the models too well.
The center has been decoupled which amounts to 0 chances for intensification.

There's a reason why tropical systems are rare this far out at this time of the year.

Hope eveyone has a great and safe 4th of july.Adrian

i don't know why they hate Bill. Hes doing his job hes trying to get us a Quicksat. I mean am i mssing something here? Just because he wants to address the issues at hand that everyone doesn't are spiting.


To be honest Proenza is on his last string with the inner core of NHC now againest him.I dont think he will last there through the end of the season.Adrian
Morning, all! Happy 4th!!!

It's gonna be tough for 96 to hold on. Dry air now rolling in from the south now, the only side its been able to keep consistent convection. But, the dry air to its north seems to be lifting somewhat northwards. If it has a chance at all, it's gonna have to be between 45w and 50w. Still possible, but lower probability.
Adrian is always quite the conservative one.
200. eye
I expect he will soon retire and that NOAA will put in a "yes person"
Well, I see we are in "will it live/will it not live" mode today....

Hey, at least it is something to watch.
hey all,

Anyone have a good readup on diurnal min and max phases as well as nocturnal related to tropical cyclones? Cant seem to google the right literature.

Happy 4th to everyone. I don't have much hope for 96L doing anything. Atleast there is something to look at.
I agree with JP on the politics point. I am sick of it. No middle, just extremes. I hate both sides.
204. eye
It is a political position, what do you expect? I mean the NHC Director is all over the TV when something threatens and even when nothing is out, he is addressing conferences etc.....it is like Condi Rice deciding one day to blast the State department for all the weakenesses....he should of known better before he went down the road he did.....did he really think nothing would happen? He will be gone before Sept.
Adrian,
I don't know Mr.Proenza personally nor the NHC Forecasters but this is not the time to squabble at each other wait til November for that, you need to work as a team to prepare and save lives, the NHC forecasters who are bickering should be ashamed of themselves, it is their job to be confidential about their feelings and wait. Their focus should be on 96L and the tropics not ousting their Director, there is a time and place for everything and its not now. If I was working there and a reporter asked me about the situation no matter how bad I would say " This is not the time and place for this discussion my duties are to serve the American public in tracking and preparing for this Hurricane season."

Just my take
JP,
Hypothetical situation what happens if we get a major Hurricane in the next two weeks threatening the U.S.? Will the gov't allow Mr.Proenza on tv or mute him?
Weather-related?

A 250lb World War II bomb has washed up on the shore of Crescent Beach, Florida. This is in the Northeast coast area, found this morning by a lady walking her dog. Navy explosives/ordinance team on site.

Well, we HAVE been having some heavy surf...kinda freaky.
211. eye
he did not go through the proper channels, he should of known better, it is not like he is a rookie....it is one thing to point out something, it is another to basically trash your boss(NOAA)....in the real world, you would be fired the next day. I have no sympathy for the man....he made his bed, now he has to sleep in it...his own staff wants him gone.
aquak9, is there a link to a story for that bomb? Crescent beach in Sarasota, fl?
214. eye
jp, he will be out before the peak of the season.....people arent use to his face, so it will not be a loss, they will probably get one of the chicks on TWC as interm Director until after the season....lol
Hello

This is my first post and I look forward to haveing great discussions with you all.

I just wanted to say that I agree with JP's comments on Bill I think its about time someone speaks up and tells it like it is.

Kristopher,
any updates on 96L
it looks like 96L has gone thru a cemetery of dry air. the dry air was mainly at the mid levels comparable to the relatively moist upper levels. now with the forecast for wind shear to increase near the island chain. it is almost certain that 96L has met it's demise
Yep.. Update is it is croaking and basically about to die.

WV imagery shows that the dry air has proven to be too much for this little system.
They may as well remove the invest. It's done.
Does anyone see areas of interest that need to be watched for development in the near future or possibly several days out?
oh well, it was fun while it lasted:)
It would be tough for anyone to replace Max, but especially for a manager from outside the center who was not an experienced hurricane forecaster. These guys were used to "one of their own" managing the center and are reacting poorly to Washington going outside to name a replacement. Been there, done that. Bill needed to carefully earn his membership on their team while encouraging the input of the group of very experienced "individual contributors." In other words, "hang back while they get to know him." It didn't happen and now may be beyond repair. This problem would occur as long as they didn't name an existing forecaster as the new chief, which they didn't do for some reason that we may never know. Too bad...now we all have a problem.
yes some models are suggesting that o low may move out of Africa on the weekend and track weatward across the atlantic towards the islands next week. the models are even suggesting that it could be Chantal. we just have to wait and see
well I am not writing it off yet, as long as it has a tight circulation new convection can pop up at any time.
you dont no that 28
Yeah Taz, I do. Can't make lemonade out of lemons that aren't there. Don't worry. We'll have Chantal sometime this month.
230. eye
ok, a couple hrs ago the COC was strong, now it is falling apart......lol..............OK!
28 give 96L one more day be foe you call it done it could make a come back or it could not but give it one more day
all the wish-casting going on last night looks pretty bad right now, although I'm sure it happens all the time....
I have seen lows in much worse shape then this come back from the dead, not saying it will we will just have to see
Death to all tropical blobs!
jp is right. The winds field is looking good though. Its currently going through the dinural min phase so convection associated with the system will be relatively light. I give this thing one more dinural max phase before i give up on it.
notice the outflow/windfield. that to show how much moisture the system can hold.
Well the LLC is exposed, probably due to dry air entrainment from the north side. It still looks as impressive as some sheared tropical storms I have seen. Anyway, the dry air isn't going away, cutting my odds of it becoming a TD back down to 20%
12Z CMC basically drops this as well.
I wonder if Lixion Avila is using his rapier wit to organize a palace coup :)
I didi not like Mayfield! Long live Bob Sheets
nash28 it does drop it lol. still shows it. wait for the cyclone phase diagram.
i'll use this pciture to show you the moisture at the surface in relation to the wind field.
Mayfield was and IS STILL a good man. How anyone can have a problem with him is beyond me.

Not going to get in a pissing political match about it either. Politics and this blog need to remain seperate.
True, but the more telling image is in the WV image.
well well what a system . 96L is trying hard to make a come back, good out flow pattern trying to form again
TSR on the update today lowers there numbers a bit but still indicates an above average season looks likely.

Complete Update
You can still watch Max Mayfield on Local 10 in Miami.
new blog!
Blame the war in Iraq for the problems at the hurricane center. I work as an Wx observer at Miami International. There has been word coming down for the last year or so that the government wants to make the tower people take observations and phase out the observer program. The talk is that this phase out would first affect c and b stations first. There is no word yet on A stations like Miami. Ft Lauderdale is a level b airport for the wx station there. Couple this talk with the aging quick scat, the fact that they are scaling down flights into hurricanes, and the fact that Noaa won't allow our satellites to study global warming anymore, should tell you all you need to know about where we stand. Our government is out of money and we are low hanging fruit. Our stations contract is awarded again in August with a take over date of Oct 1. Whether or no we will still have a job or whether or not the government will actually phase us out remains to be seen, but I can tell you that everyone in the observing field is very worried.
If someone says that the system was decoupled, does that means that it was a TD, TS or H?
: Drakoen same her
254. CJ5
Proenza came in and worked to make things better for the public. He did what many of us nonpoliticians always say we would do; cut out the politics and get something done as a public servant. By pointing out that NOAA is spending money on the proverbial $500 toilet seat and not paying attention to the true needs of the service he has painted himself in the corner. His staff isn't behind him for obvious reasons; go with your boss or the 400lb elephant against him.
Look at this wind shear forecast for the next 72hrs.Link
is this good or bad for our blob?