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96L Approaching Lesser Antilles a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 10°N 50.5°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, was designated Invest 96L by NHC on Tuesday afternoon, and is headed westwards to west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation and modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Thunderstorm activity was beginning to increase slightly in areal coverage early Tuesday afternoon, though, and a solid outflow channel to the north had developed on 96L's west side. An 8:12 am EDT Tuesday pass from the ASCAT satellite showed top surface winds near 35 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave has plenty of dry air to contend with. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have warmed, and are now near 28°C, which favors development.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Invest 96L northeast of the coast of South America, at approximately 10:30 am EDT August 19, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 96L
The wave should pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night or Friday morning, then track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS and European models showed 96L tracking through the Central Caribbean early next week, and arriving in the Western Caribbean on Tuesday. The UKMET model showed a more northerly component of motion, with a path over Hispaniola. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET and GFS models, predicted that 96L would develop into a tropical storm after passing through the Lesser Antilles. When both of these models show development, the odds increase that development will occur. The UKMET model showed 96L developing on Saturday, and the GFS showed it developing on Friday. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low through Wednesday, but development odds will increase on Thursday as ocean temperatures warm and the atmosphere becomes moister. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while it is in the Caribbean--a weak and disorganized system that struggles against dry air.

A second disturbance near 13°N, 39°W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, also has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Lowell as seen at 11 am EDT Tuesday, August 19, 2014. At the time, Lowell had top winds of 50 mph. Image taken from a super-rapid scan mode loop from the NOAA/RAMMB website.

The Eastern Pacific heating up
In the Eastern Pacific, we have a new named storm, Tropical Storm Lowell, which formed at 03 UTC on Tuesday. The GOES-West satellite is in super-rapid scan mode over Lowell today, and you can access some very impressive one-minute time resolution loops of Lowell at the NOAA/RAMMB website. Lowell's formation gives the Eastern Pacific 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricane so far this season. On average, the Eastern Pacific sees 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 18, so it has been a very active year in the basin. Tropical Storm Karina is also spinning away in the Eastern Pacific today, and Karina and Lowell are expected to become entangled with each other early next week and die in the cool waters well to the west of Baja Mexico. The models have been consistently predicting that a another named storm (Marie) will form late this week from a tropical wave that crossed Central America on Monday and will move parallel to the Mexican coast a few hundred miles offshore. This storm, which NHC is giving 5-day odds of development of 70%, is something residents of the Baja Peninsula should monitor next week. Ocean temperatures in the waters just west of the Baja Peninsula are unusually warm---30°C (86°F), which is about 3°C (5°F) above average--so Marie will have plenty of heat energy available to power it.

The Western Pacific remains mercifully quiet, with no new named storms expected to develop over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. LargoFl
Quoting 989. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

FRI AUG 29 18Z

lol keeper, anyway we look at it, next week is going to get interesting
1002. LargoFl
i do notice something different..yesterday 96 wasnt moving,today its moving westward at 14mph....
Quoting 980. MAweatherboy1:

96L has become more organized this morning. It's still elongated and messy, but on the 12z CIMSS maps, it is showing good convergence and divergence, and a stronger 850mb vort signature.

This was 6z-



Here's 12z-



Models have started bailing out on it, and they may well be right in showing little or no development in the Caribbean, there's lots of land and shear ahead of it, but it remains one to watch.


If 96L doesn't develop then we will go into September with just 2 systems so far this year.
Quoting 997. 7544:
morning all models are all over the place this am ill wait for the low to form before getting too excited but 96L is looking better today so far.


Models are worthless until there is an established COC.
Until then- enjoy.
1005. StormWx
To the one blogger who thinks El Nino has been here and who thinks it is still coming lol. Not looking good at the moment in any El Nino region. Still have to wait and see, but the predictions of an El Nino come this fall may be met with plenty of Crow.

3.4 region - negative.


4 region - neutral and going negative.

3 region - has cooled and is well below the 0.5C


Facts people!
Quoting 996. FOREX:

Many bloggers are viewing this track as bogus now. Not sure myself yet.lol
to be honest there likely all bogus right now nhc will latch on once there is a well defined system to latch on too
Models that take 96L east of the United States are developing it too quickly. This will more than likely be a long, agonizing process where it finally comes together in the Western Caribbean somewhere unless it has too much land interaction. Sorry guys, but this is 2014. Don't expect it to develop quickly and make forecasting easy. :-/
1008. LargoFl
big blowup this morning..any chance these two blobs merge?............................................ ...................
1009. StormWx
Its been blazing hot in FL lately, and heat looks to continue. Personally, i cant wait for fall weather, it gets old when its this hot every day.



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
96L has become more organized this morning. It's still elongated and messy, but on the 12z CIMSS maps, it is showing good convergence and divergence, and a stronger 850mb vort signature.

This was 6z-



Here's 12z-



Models have started bailing out on it, and they may well be right in showing little or no development in the Caribbean, there's lots of land and shear ahead of it, but it remains one to watch.


Model support looks as strong as it was yesterday to me, with the exception of the GFS being more realistic instead of developing it in 24 hours. UKMET, GFS, GEM, NAVGEM, all show development of this system plus the 00z ECMWF has also started developing this in the Gulf of Mexico.

I wonder why the HWRF and GFDL have yet to run.
Quoting 986. FOREX:

If only the NHC could or would put out a sort of "pre-storm track" so we would just stop guessing what they are thinking.


That would be very exciting but far too problematic. Without a defined surface circulation even they would be just guessing and that would not be good for numerous reasons. Trying to accurately "pre-storm track" this right now, as the models are saying, is impossible. Soon enough though, this morning is trending in the right direction. Probably Friday before this really has a chance to form into a TD at the earliest. NHC "pre-storm track" right now might be a cone from Louisiana to Bermuda.
The GFS has jumped back and forth by hundreds of miles over the past 24 hours. So I wouldn't get too excited by anything it shows at this point.



There is not storm yet, but I dont trust this system, with it bouncing back and forth like this. Anyone along the Gulf Coast better watch out, but I just got a weird feeling.
Quoting 1008. LargoFl:

big blowup this morning..any chance these two blobs merge?............................................ ...................


Believe Levi is projecting exactly that.
1017. Grothar
It is a mess but it looks ominous, like it can't wait to get out of the gate and run.
The single biggest factor with 96L will be land interaction. The upper level environment appears to be favorable enough, and RH seems to also be favorable to support strengthening. 96L will want to go north or south of Hispaniola to become a significant system. Right now the models have it ramming right into the island, thus the lower intensity spread this morning.
1020. LargoFl
Quoting 1013. STORMW2014:



Hmmm.... I wander who that one blogger might be


Yeah about that. Just sit back and wait for it as this is not 2012.



El-Nino also continues into Summer 2015



Lastly there is this!



And almost forgot to add this.

SOI values for 20 Aug 2014
Average for last 30 days -8.5
Average for last 90 days -2.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -12.8

1022. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


If 96L doesn't develop then we will go into September with just 2 systems so far this year.


From Doc Masters blog on August 14th:
"In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there should have been 3 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 0 intense hurricanes by August 14. So far this season, we have had 2 named storms (Arthur and Bertha), both of which became hurricanes. The typical formation date of the season's fourth named storm is August 23."

Lets assume 96L will become the 3rd named storm of the season. It may or may not form, but if it does, we are only 1 storm behind schedule. And with the peak of the season approaching we will have plenty of action coming soon. Just calling it how it is, this season isnt far behind schedule, and your call of 5 storms is going to be a bust.
96L has a vary small window. After that high wind shear sould rip it apart
1024. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
interesting that a gem run earlier yesterday had the same location,way too early yet,dont forget..there also is a 50% chance 96 never developes huh
Remember last year, Largo? The GEM/CMC was developing a hurricane every freakin' weekend that was supposed to hit me for two straight months. One there's a developed center of circulation, I start to take more interest in the Canadian. Until then, it's mostly for giggles. And yes, there's still a chance 96L, like 95L and 94L, doesn't develop at all.
1025. LargoFl
Quoting 1016. DeepSeaRising:



Believe Levi is projecting exactly that.
wow regardless of winds..this could turn out to be a big rainmaker
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Believe Levi is projecting exactly that.


Models have been indicating a P17L and P18L merge for a couple days.
1027. LargoFl
Quoting 1024. sar2401:

Remember last year, Largo? The GEM/CMC was developing a hurricane every freakin' weekend that was supposed to hit me for two straight months. One there's a developed center of circulation, I start to take more interest in the Canadian. Until then, it's mostly for giggles. And yes, there's still a chance 96L, like 95L and 94L, doesn't develop at all.
yes i remember..way too early yet,perhaps sunday we'll know more..these runs are changing with each run now.
STARTING TO LOOK BETTER BY THE HOUR
Quoting 1019. CybrTeddy:

The single biggest factor with 96L will be land interaction. The upper level environment appears to be favorable enough, and RH seems to also be favorable to support strengthening. 96L will want to go north or south of Hispaniola to become a significant system. Right now the models have it ramming right into the island, thus the lower intensity spread this morning.

That sounds a lot like Debby.
Good morning all,
We must remember that without a developed low, model track guidance is uncertain at best. The convective blow up seen earlier is probably
more of an interaction with an ULL and trough moving westward over the Greater Antilles. don't be surprised if all those pretty colors
on 96L evaporate to the north. This could allow the LLC to slip under the HL winds and move west into the Caribbean where conditions will be more favorable later in the week. Then you would have the potential for an intense GOM hurricane. Early development and intensity
remains problematic as the southern end of the elongated low is already over NE South America. Anything can happen at this point in time.
Happy hunting guys and gals. I just hope it steers clear of the Florida peninsula.
1031. sar2401
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Believe Levi is projecting exactly that.
No, both the NHC and Levi think that the disturbance behind 96L will inject some energy into it as it passes at a higher speed than 96L is moving. The whole premise of 96L becoming a cyclone is that it gets enough energy from Disturbance 2 to kick start 96L
watch out if we get no land interaction we will have a big hurricane
5 storms its a bust. normal numbers this yr. funny a few yrs ago dr masters posted a blog saying there is a correlation between early season development and an active season. well we had a couple early development out there and now have another potential bloc buster system. so much crow to be served this yr
Quoting sporteguy03:

That sounds a lot like Debby.


Debby didn't have that much to worry about in terms of land interaction, just shear. This situation reminds me of Hurricane Ernesto in 2006, if anything.
Remember two of the cardinal rules of this forum:

1) All computer forecast models are worthless and unreliable and should be ignored because they were developed by imbeciles with no idea what they were doing, EXCEPT...

2)...When one of those models shows a cyclone directly affecting your city. In that case, that particular model is obviously reasonable and logical because it was clearly developed by the most brilliant mathematical and meteorological minds that have ever worked together. ;-)
1036. Grothar
Something definitely not right with the models this morning



Ensemble models

I see really nothing coming from 96L. Sould get rip apart by wind shear in a few days.
Quoting 1034. CybrTeddy:



Debby didn't have that much to worry about in terms of land interaction, just shear. This situation reminds me of Hurricane Ernesto in 2006, if anything.

True, the track seems similar though, Ernesto had lots of land issues to deal with as well. It got stuck over Cuba for a long time.
1039. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i remember..way too early yet,perhaps sunday we'll know more..these runs are changing with each run now.
If we don't have a better handle on this by Friday I think 96L will be in big trouble.
Quoting islander101010:
5 storms its a bust. normal numbers this yr. funny a few yrs ago dr masters posted a blog saying there is a correlation between early season development and an active season. well we had a couple early development out there and now have another potential bloc buster system. so much crow to be served this yr


Huh? We didn't have early season development this year, we didn't have a named storm until July, the first time since 2009 that's happened. All agencies were predicting a normal to below average season and that appears to be correct.
1041. Grothar
Quoting 562. FOREX:

terrible news WKC. happy and relieved you were not home and gotten hurt. I really look up to you and enjoy your posts.


A Pause must be taken from the weather to offer Sincere Prayer and suppport for You our dear weather confrere. Today may have been yours...but tomorrow -who know's what tragedy may befall anyone of us, God forbid. Truly News like this is really heartbreaking to learn about!
However, Please stay strong through this and Keep your faith and hope high in the Lord...the sun will shine brighter tomorrow! So Please do not dwell on the material tings that have been lost, but do focus more on the gift of your oh so precious and irreplaceable life. Possessions may be lost -but Truly our Joy filled moments can only be robbed by one person which is ourselves. Hence, Be grateful for every moment and offer a prayer for the perpetrators who can be more closely associated to You than you may first think-that they Also may experience conversion and inner peace in their lives through Jesus Christ.
Keep Strong WunderkidCayman & God Bless!!!
Quoting 1033. islander101010:

5 storms its a bust. normal numbers this yr. funny a few yrs ago dr masters posted a blog saying there is a correlation between early season development and an active season. well we had a couple early development out there and now have another potential bloc buster system. so much crow to be served this yr


The early season correlation is only if a systems develops in the MDR Arthur and Bertha did not.
♫ All my friends know the low rider. The low rider is a little higher ♫ Da da da da da da da, da da da da da. ♫

It will indeed be interesting (hopefully not devastating) to see if this system can avoid Hispaniola and ride south of the island.
NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST
PLS SEE THE NHC OR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR ALL STORM INFORMATION
Northward shift on 12z models...Land interaction

Quoting Neapolitan:
Remember two of the cardinal rules of this forum:

1) All computer forecast models are worthless and unreliable and should be ignored because they were developed by imbeciles with no idea what they were doing, EXCEPT...

2)...When one of those models shows a cyclone directly affecting your city. In that case, that particular model is obviously reasonable and logical because it was clearly developed by the most brilliant mathematical and meteorological minds that have ever worked together. ;-)


Stirring the pot again just to get a reaction.
96L seems to also have a well developed ULAC, that'll help with any wind shear ahead of it.

1049. Grothar
1050. JRRP
interesting... none of you have posted this
00 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 51.5W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 52.5W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/20/14 11.2N 52.7W 25 1009 Invest

Quoting 1037. Tazmanian:

I see really nothing coming from 96L. Sould get rip apart by wind shear in a few days.
Shear will not be a problem. Models show upper level anti-cyclonic flow aloft throughout 96L's journey.


Quoting 1005. StormWx:

To the one blogger who thinks El Nino has been here and who thinks it is still coming lol. Not looking good at the moment in any El Nino region. Still have to wait and see, but the predictions of an El Nino come this fall may be met with plenty of Crow.

3.4 region - negative.


4 region - neutral and going negative.

3 region - has cooled and is well below the 0.5C


Facts people!




Nino 1+2 still going strong and there's another subsurface warm pool that's yet to surface. I think we'll get an El Nino, but not until winter at the earliest.

SYNOPSIS 2014082000

P17L/96L (NHC: 30% 2-day / 50% 5-day)
13N, 51W
700 hPa

MERGER WITH P18L IMMINENT
Quoting sporteguy03:


The early season correlation is only if a systems develops in the MDR Arthur and Bertha did not.


Also only applies if they develop tropically, only Bertha did, and in August. Hurricane Arthur developed off the tail end of a front.
Quoting 1050. JRRP:

interesting... none of you have posted this
00 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 51.5W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 52.5W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/20/14 11.2N 52.7W 25 1009 Invest

Center relocation or center of Invest further North?
Quoting 1049. Grothar:


Make it go away!
Quoting MississippiWx:

Shear will not be a problem. Models show upper level anti-cyclonic flow aloft throughout 96L's journey.





Good news for 96L
1058. ncstorm
Quoting 1047. luvtogolf:



Stirring the pot again just to get a reaction.


sigh I agree..yesterday it was a rant from him saying how the forum would get all these well informed tropical weather discussions with all the "nonsense he seems fit" removed but somehow all I see is mocking posts from him..even in tropical discussion he is looking to argue..
NPS Site info on P17L

SYNOPSIS 2014082000

P17L/96L (NHC: 30% 2-day / 50% 5-day)
13N, 51W
700 hPa

MERGER WITH P18L IMMINENT. Tough call on which of the two initial pouches contributes more. Although westward motion continuity suggests P18L, a surface low has already formed for P17L. Also, NHC has higher probability for P17L, so for a lack of confusion, I am leaning toward calling it P17L.

ECMWF: Merges with P18L after about 48 hours. Tracks NW toward Haiti and eastern Cuba while never developing, just maintaining steady vorticity.


GFS: Uncertain analysis position since the merger is almost complete in GFS. Vorticity increases to borderline formation levels at 84 hours, then weakens as P17L brushes southern Haiti.


UKMET: Of the four models, UKMET has the strongest suggestion that I am making a mistake by not calling the eventual pouch P18L. Develops into a storm, with peak vorticity at 84 hours, just before landfall on southern Hispaniola.


1060. sar2401
Quoting JRRP:
interesting... none of you have posted this
00 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 51.5W 25 1009 Invest
06 GMT 08/20/14 9.5N 52.5W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 08/20/14 11.2N 52.7W 25 1009 Invest
That's the reason for the drastic shift in the models. The NHC relocated the center further north, leading to all the OTS tracks.
At least with all the models it doesn't show 96L is gonna be a bad hurricane, just some rain..

1062. 7544
Quoting 1008. LargoFl:

big blowup this morning..any chance these two blobs merge?............................................ ...................


i would say yes but who will over power who it will be interesting to see what the outcome will be when they merge and we get a coc stay tuned .
1063. ncstorm

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h

Moral, until center forms, ( and even after that) model tracks notoriously bad. Big strong storms much easier for model
It will not be going out to sea. Also less shear to contend with as an anticyclone is on top of 96L. Only problem might be land interaction. Other than that it's good to go although slowly.
still dont see this hitting hispanola.... has to move NW... wnw would keep it south of the greater antillies
1066. Grothar
Quoting 1046. hurricane23:

Northward shift on 12z models...Land interaction




Yep. The new 12Z

1067. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Also only applies if they develop tropically, only Bertha did, and in August. Hurricane Arthur developed off the tail end of a front.
However, Bertha did form in the MDR.
1068. sar2401
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
At least with all the models it doesn't show 96L is gonna be a bad hurricane, just some rain..

That's not true, and a bad premise to operate from until we see what this actually becomes.
1069. IDTH
I would not believe any of the model tracks at this point, at this point we don't have a well defined center of circulation, however though I can see why the models have 96L moving NNW almost, maybe the interaction with the system behind it causes a possible relocation kind of like how Irene's center relocated to the N but in this case we don't have any center at this point but it is possible that a center could develop at a higher latitude like the models could be thinking. Every movement will be crucial with this storm.
Quoting 1066. Grothar:


Yep. The new 12Z



Hi Gro-
It's still too early to say if it appears to be going OTS after hitting the islands.
Oh geez.Another storm track some where over the greater Antilies.WHERE have I seen this before?.Oh yeah..2009,2011,2012 and 2013.We haven't had a caribbean cruiser since Gustav in 2008.(I'm not sure Ernesto counts because at one point it was a open wave).What happened to diversity in tracks?.lol.
So it looks like 96L could be Bertha part 2, except stronger?



Hopefully it'll be as beneficial as Bertha, giving rains to the islands while not doing too much damage.
Quoting 1071. washingtonian115:

Oh geez.Another storm track some where over the greater Antilies.WHERE have I seen this before?.Oh yeah..2009,2011,2012 and 2013.We haven't had a caribbean cruiser since Gustav in 2008.(I'm not sure Ernesto counts because at one point it was a open wave).What happened to diversity in tracks?.lol.
not buying the northern track. they will shift further south.
You can see the two merging in this loop

1075. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NPS Site info on P17L

SYNOPSIS 2014082000

P17L/96L (NHC: 30% 2-day / 50% 5-day)
13N, 51W
700 hPa

MERGER WITH P18L IMMINENT. Tough call on which of the two initial pouches contributes more. Although westward motion continuity suggests P18L, a surface low has already formed for P17L. Also, NHC has higher probability for P17L, so for a lack of confusion, I am leaning toward calling it P17L.

ECMWF: Merges with P18L after about 48 hours. Tracks NW toward Haiti and eastern Cuba while never developing, just maintaining steady vorticity.


GFS: Uncertain analysis position since the merger is almost complete in GFS. Vorticity increases to borderline formation levels at 84 hours, then weakens as P17L brushes southern Haiti.


UKMET: Of the four models, UKMET has the strongest suggestion that I am making a mistake by not calling the eventual pouch P18L. Develops into a storm, with peak vorticity at 84 hours, just before landfall on southern Hispaniola.


It is important to remember that this is the analysis of one meteorologist. It's an informed opinion, but still an opinion.
1076. ncstorm
The 00z Navgem ensembles..



the 06z operational run killed 96L with land interaction but still brought it to east coast of Florida..
Greetings to All!

Cyclogenesis alert- seems like the main COC, LLC IS FORMING AT AROUND 10N, NEAR 54/55W. Of course, there are competing MC's, and additional LLCC's due to the presence of the nearby tropical wave (ex95L), but this is always interesting to watch as it unfolds...
God Bless to all of us in the Islands...
Quoting 1072. Envoirment:

So it looks like 96L could be Bertha part 2, except stronger?



Hopefully it'll be as beneficial as Bertha, giving rains to the islands while not doing too much damage.
unless it bombs out, no way will this be a bertha. not buying the northern model runs. steering shows a general w-wnw movement. unless the trough digs all the way into the bahamas, 96L is staying in the caribbean and should stays south of hispanola
Quoting 1078. wunderweatherman123:

unless it bombs out, no way will this be a bertha. not buying the northern model runs. steering shows a general w-wnw movement. unless the trough digs all the way into the bahamas, 96L is staying in the caribbean and should stays south of hispanola


And further it stays south means the La/Tx better watch out. Which is where I am at.


1080. ackee
Unless 96L devlops into a strong TS I just don't see it moving over hispanola
1081. ncstorm
the models are going to shift for many more future runs so be prepared for the roller coaster thats coming..the operational says GOM while the ensembles says east coast/ots..as you can tell the models are having a hard time with this one..
less wind shear today!!!
1083. ricderr
unless it bombs out, no way will this be a bertha. not buying the northern model runs. steering shows a general w-wnw movement. unless the trough digs all the way into the bahamas, 96L is staying in the caribbean and should stays south of hispano


running models this morning.....seems most don't see strength with this system......however...those of us in the southwest........well...it's just the opposite in the pacific.....models are kicking up a monster....should bring moisture to the southwest
Quoting 1047. luvtogolf:



Stirring the pot again just to get a reaction.

No. It's called "posting a comment". It happens quite often on various internet fora, or so I'm told. ;-)
Quoting 1080. ackee:

Unless 96L devlops into a strong TS I just don't see it moving over hispanola
same here, steering shows wnw. if its a hurricane it will move NW towards cuba. feel confident in a track towards jamaica
Quoting 1074. hurricane23:

You can see the two merging in this loop


The longer it takes to consolidate the more westward it will probably go to avoid D.R/Haiti.Why do the models show it going over Haiti/D.R.
I think invest 96L WILL move up the east coast last two hurricane this year moving up the east haven let make it three hurricane soon.
Quoting 1081. ncstorm:

the models are going to shift for many more future runs so be prepared for the roller coaster thats coming..the operational says GOM while the ensembles says east coast/ots..as you can tell the models are having a hard time with this one..
what makes more sense to you? a large monsoonal system will take its time to get together. unless it blows up east of 75W, it will head with the general flow. wnw toward the NW caribbean. GFS ensembles have it moving NW already into hispanola right into that weakness. if its a powerful hurricane than that is possible. the likelihood of that happening.... slim








Look at the MDR and the Eastern Atlantic
Quoting 1087. hurricanes2018:

I think invest 96L WILL move up the east coast last two hurricane this year moving up the east coast let make it three hurricane soon.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191401
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM


Anyway I know the models will flip and flop until recon flys in and then the data fine tunes the models
Quoting 1086. washingtonian115:

The longer it takes to consolidate the more westward it will probably go to avoid D.R/Haiti.Why do the models show it going over Haiti/D.R.


Some of the models show a trough coming off the east coast and creating a weakness which pulls it further north.
Where Invest 96L tracks will be determined by where any area of low pressure develops once the tropical wave behind it begins to merge. It doesn't have much to do with intensity.

This could end up in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast and as a tropical wave or as a major hurricane. It's all speculation at this point.
Quoting 1094. Envoirment:



Some of the models show a trough coming off the east coast and creating a weakness which pulls it further north.
So captain trough save the U.S will be in full swing again?.lol.
Quoting 1084. Neapolitan:


No. It's called "posting a comment". It happens quite often on various internet fora, or so I'm told. ;-)
"fori"

Fora would be a feminine singular with "forae" the plural - if I recollect correct. ;-)
Add: If "fora" were a Latin noun.
1099. hydrus
Quoting 1036. Grothar:

Something definitely not right with the models this morning



Ensemble models


Happens almost everytime, especially with 96L..Monsoon trough like system with a surface low pouch mixed in.
invest 96L starting to take a path like HURRICANE IRENE I do not like it at all
1101. silas
Morning all,
I honestly don't think the models should be taken very seriously at this point. Until *96L* organizes a considerable amount more, they aren't going to be trustworthy at all and this flip-flopping is probably going to continue. So for those of you hoping for a southern track don't give up hope just yet =)
Quoting 1097. washingtonian115:

So captain trough save the U.S will be in full swing again?.lol.


Maybe, but it's still too early to tell. Texas still has quite an issue with drought though:



So a Texas landfall could be somewhat beneficial if the storm stays weak & further south.
1103. 7544
Quoting 1092. HurricaneAndre:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191401
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM





looks like its going to go nnw today if they going to 15/ 55 ?
Quoting 1101. silas:

Morning all,
I honestly don't think the models should be taken very seriously at this point. Until 94L organizes a considerable amount more, they aren't going to be trustworthy at all and this flip-flopping is probably going to continue. So for those of you hoping for a southern track don't give up hope just yet =)



*96L* :)
Quoting 1090. HurricaneAndre:









Look at the MDR and the Eastern Atlantic
starting to get buzy soon
I find some news outlets especially the local ones to be a little exagerated and irresponsible. I got my wife panicking because we were going to Gulf Shores for the labor day weekend and the news are telling people here in Mississippi to prepare for a Katrina like event. I call it B.S.
1107. 7544
Quoting 1101. silas:

Morning all,
I honestly don't think the models should be taken very seriously at this point. Until 94L organizes a considerable amount more, they aren't going to be trustworthy at all and this flip-flopping is probably going to continue. So for those of you hoping for a southern track don't give up hope just yet =)


opps have some coffee it 96L lol
1108. silas

Quoting Doppler22:


*96L* :)
Oh wow whoops :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1110. hydrus
Quoting 1094. Envoirment:



Some of the models show a trough coming off the east coast and creating a weakness which pulls it further north.
Same ole story, if it stays weak, the further west it goes, if it strengthens, the more likely it will feel the effects of the trough. Models are all over the place at its current position, trying to figure out where the blog of jello will go, rather than a block of wood...so to speak...of course....maybe...:)
Which models should we pay attention to the ensemble or the operational models
Quoting 1106. CaneHunter031472:

I find some news outlets especially the local ones to be a little exagerated and irresponsible. I got my wife panicking because we were going to Gulf Shores for the labor day weekend and the news are telling people here in Mississippi to prepare for a Katrina like event. I call it B.S.
What news outlets?.Not mine.It's not even being mentioned.

1102. Envoirment
Yeah that would bring good rain for Texas.






watch out here!!
Levi said yesterday the eastern component would merge with 96L & consolodate.Looks to be happening, as forecast....

Link
Link
1115. barbamz
Really crazy parade of very strong waterspout(-tornados) yesterday along the northwestern coast of Italy around Genova. I've already posted some pics last night; today many videos are available. Here a small selection; hope you don't mind.



Italy tornadoes: CCTV shows beach cafe torn apart [= the youtube video above]
BBC with Video: 20 August 2014 Last updated at 12:37 BST
A series of tornadoes have hit northern Italy causing thousands of euros worth of damage.
CCTV shows a beach in the town of Arenzano, Liguria, being torn apart by the storm. No injuries have been reported.
Despite severe weather in the north, southern Italy is said to be enjoying good weather.



VIDEO: 'Day of fear' as five tornadoes hit Italy
The Local (with a video-sample), Published: 20 Aug 2014 09:41 GMT+02:00
A series of five tornadoes swept through northern Italy on Tuesday, prompting flights to be diverted and causing millions of euros worth of damage. ...

-------------------------------





Quoting 1111. weatherman994:

Which models should we pay attention to the ensemble or the operational models
none for the moment over the next 12 hrs it will latch on
POSS T.C.F.A.
96L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
11.25N/51.25W
Quoting 1112. washingtonian115:

What news outlets?.Not mine.It's not even being mentioned.

1102. Envoirment
Yeah that would bring good rain for Texas.


I'm trying to find out because my wife is the one who called me and she never gets worried about weather. I am not gonna cancel my plans because of a doggone rumor that's for sure. I am looking at the Mississippi severe weather alert site right now. As soon as I find out who is spreding this I'll let you all know. I can tell you now that this is not going to be a Katrina event, and I don't even think it will make it to the Gulf, but I can be wrong.
Quoting 1098. Barefootontherocks:

"fori"

Fora would be a feminine singular with "forae" the plural - if I recollect correct. ;-)


Forums is more correct, unless you are talking about a public marketplace in an ancient Roman city, in which case fora would probably be more appropriate plural usage.
Quoting 1098. Barefootontherocks:

"fori"

Fora would be a feminine singular with "forae" the plural - if I recollect correct. ;-)
Add: If "fora" were a Latin noun.

Quoting 1119. CarlitosAtun:


Forums is more correct, unless you are talking about a public marketplace in an ancient Roman city, in which case fora would probably be more appropriate plural usage.

Interesting...but incorrect. Let's see what the experts say:

Collins English Dictionary:
(plural) -rums, -ra

Merriam-Webster:
plural forums also fo·ra

Cambridge Dictionary:
plural forums or or fora

Infoplease:
pl. fo•rums, fo•ra

Lesson: next time you decide to test your pedantry against an expert wordsmith, make sure you study up first. ;-)
1122. MahFL
Quoting 1097. washingtonian115:

So captain trough save the U.S will be in full swing again?.lol.


No, it pulls the storm from the south into the USA, possibly.
How do you post pictures on this site after the renovation?
Quoting 1123. CaneHunter031472:

How do you post pictures on this site after the renovation?


Go to Photo & Videos, in tabs or up top depending on device. Select photos. Then the blue upload button in the upper right. The new box you can drag drop pics into it of click on it to browse for them.

If you mean to the blog try the image symbol below the comment box (this seems to work better now for most) or write the img src= code in same as always.