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95L fizzles; Sierras brace for 5-10 feet of snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:10 AM GMT on December 31, 2007

A non-tropical low pressure system dubbed Invest 95L, near 27N 38W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has gotten less organized since yesterday. The storm cut off from the jet stream and acquired some subtropical characteristics yesterday, as it sat nearly stationary over waters of 22-23° C. However, satellite imagery shows fewer heavy thunderstorms than yesterday, and the storm has a more extratropical appearance as it interacts with a cold front to its north.

This evening's QuikSCAT pass showed winds up to 50 mph on the west side of 95L. Wind shear is about 30 knots over 95L, and this shear is expected to be 20-40 knots for the next two days. This is probably too high to allow 95L to develop into a subtropical storm, and wind shear is forecast to grow stronger as the storm begins moving west-southwest on Tuesday. By Thursday, a trough of low pressure is expected to recurve 95L northeastward, and the storm is not expected to affect any land areas.

Huge blizzard expected in the California Sierras
One of the most severe blizzards of the past 50 years is expected to affect California's Sierra Mountains beginning Thursday night, January 3. A powerful low pressure system will establish itself off the coast of Oregon, and bring a series of heavy snow events with blizzard conditions to the Sierras through Monday. Five to ten feet of snow are possible in the high mountains. Travel will be nearly impossible in the high country next weekend, with white-out conditions and wind gusts near hurricane strength. This is going to be a great storm for filling the reservoirs that supply the northern half of the state with its water. Reservoirs should be at full capacity next summer, easing fears of a significant water shortage. Last winter's snows failed to fill the reservoirs to even 50% of capacity.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for December 30 for Georgia. Atlanta got one of its heaviest rains of the year today.

Happy New Year! I'll be back January 2 to talk about the Georgia drought. Heavy rains that fell today may have been just enough to keep Atlanta from setting a record for its driest year since record keeping began in 1930.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update
Happy New Year Dr Masters!!
thanks doc
Thanks Dr. M.
Happy New Year to you and your staff.
wow wow and wow! 5 to 10ft of snow this is going to to be a evere now and then 50 year storm
happy new year doc
for some reason i gonna give this another night
before a long winter nap
Happy New Years to Dr. Masters and his entire Staff and to all who read this !!!!
Thats a whole bunch of snow. Thats snow up to the roof...can you imagine what drifts will be like? wow... I've seen 7ft snowfalls...its incredible.
Mammouth well be covered with heaps of snow. Good luck all.
IDK...for some reason I feel like 95L still has potential...not as much as before, but still some left.
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Radar estimate for south GA is here, quite impressive. Link
Happy New Year DR. Masters!!!

Thank you and staff, for what you do here! It truely means alot to many here!!
have fun trackin snow taz
Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
=============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance [1000 hPa] located near 18.3S 42.0E or 1420 kms west-northwest of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.2S 41.9E 40 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modere)
48 HRS: 20.3S 41.7E 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Environment is still favorable, so intensification is forecast. During Jan 01, 2008, an upper level trough is forecast to build southwestward of the system. This should enhance poleward outflow and consequently improve the upper level divergence. That is why intensification rate is a little stronger than climatology. This system could be close to Intense Tropical Cyclone stage (90 knots) at the end of the forecast period.

The track should progressively take a more southerly motion still at low speed today before accelerating. During Jan 2nd 2008 a subtropical ridge is moving away in the southern Mozambique Channel.

NWP model run has slightly moved thier tracks eastward so that is the case of the presen guidance that is close to the ECMWF solution.
for got to post this look at the T # it no longet has a STS with the T #

30/2330 UTC 26.9N 34.9W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
thanks keep



by the way how march is 10ft of snow in "
And as for 95L and the 2007 hurricane season---nothing more to say than this :)

Link
Thanks Dr. Masters! My son is traveling to CA on Saturday, hopefully this storm won't affect him too much!
over 100 after that dosent matter
10 feet of snow is 120 inches, Taz.
10 ft 120 inches
10x12 taz ;-)
wow 120" of snow are mts wont take that march snow
Wow...Meteo France forecasts 06R to become a Intense Tropical Cyclone (highest classification for cyclones there) in 72 hours...currently it is a Perturbation Tropicale
actually Tres Intense Cyclone Tropicale is the highest rating for the sw indian ocean
Oh it is? Hmm didnt know that lol
As soon as dvorak ratings hit T2.5 we should see MF upgrade 06R to a moderate TS
either T2.5 or T3.0 is when Seychelles will name the system.
Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number One
=============================================

At 0000 UTC Tropical Low [994 hPa] located near 8.0S 97.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and is moving east at 8 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants
well here comes Nicholas...
Went poof....Its not august folks tropical cyclones this time of year are rare.

Happy New Year to all!

Adrian's Hurricane Archives

More to come.
33. JLPR
wow
I was just watching some satellites pics of Isabel in 2003 while it passed north of PR wow big system PR was lucky it didnt passed through here if it did it would have being one day landfall another sunny and calm(the eye) and the other one the second half lol
As of 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [976 hPa] located near 18.7S 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The cyclone is moving west-northwest at 4 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre decreasing to 35 knots by 0000 UTC 01January.

Storm Force Winds within 35 nautical miles of centre until 0600 UTC 31December with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Gale Force Winds within 120 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS - 18.8S 111.0E 35 knots [CAT 1]
48 HRS - 19.6S 109.4E 30 knots [Tropical Low]
if any one is going up to are mts for new years make sure you get back home be for wed night or it may be a few days or longer to get back down from the mts
36. JLPR


umm looks like the remains of 95L could clash with the cold front and generate some active weather around the islands
JLPR-
the mets said the eye was 60 n.m.in cat-5-isabel,and they said the low that became isabel came from the red sea region.
38. JLPR
looks like 95l is starting to move west
39. JLPR
wow hydrus PR is only 110(length) X 40(width) so the eye would had almost over us completely amazing =P
Huge blizzard expected in the California Sierras
One of the most severe blizzards of the past 50 years is expected to affect California's Sierra Mountains beginning Thursday night, January 3.


The Sierras and the areas around them may have to contend with floods as well this winter, in addition to heavy snowfall:

3. In the central Sierra there are no large-scale winter floods associated with El Nino. All but one of the biggest floods have occurred in La Nina winters. However, not all La Nina winters have large floods, and many have small or average winter flood peaks. Thus, La Nina opens the door to, but does not guarantee, large scale rain-on-snow conditions associated with the biggest Sierra floods--more so than El Nino. The deep tap to abundant tropical moisture (the so-called "pineapple connection") associated with major Sierra floods has a higher likelihood of occurrence in La Nina years than in El Nino years, but in both cases is not common. These very large floods can be generated in just a few days, and the weather pattern during that time may poorly represent the overall character of the winter. Both 1996-97 and 1985-86 illustrate this point very well: without the short period of intense rains, these two years with the largest floods would likely have entered the record books as drought winters.


A little odd that La Nina usually means drought there, but can also cause some of the biggest floods, and more often than El Nino. Also, this article from 1999 that I came across in February also mentioned record snow - it was right about the tornadoes this year (deadliest year for tornadoes since 1999, also continues the reversal in tornado deaths, unfortunately, since the 2004 low):

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.
41. JLPR
sad that i started tracking tropical systems on 2004 i would had loved to track Isabel =(
JLPR-how can you tell its moving west?
JLPR-they have the entire sat loop of that storm,if you can find it,it is worth seeing.
JLPR-was the last cat 5 to hit p.r.in 1928?
18. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:36 PM EST on December 30, 2007
And as for 95L and the 2007 hurricane season---nothing more to say than this :)

Link


The only thing missing from this skit is a crow . . . lol
invest 95l
track mark
35w/27.5n
36w/26.9n
37w/26.7n
38w/26.3n
39w/26.1n
40w/25.9n
41w/25.8n 01/01/08 GMT
....stop....
95L really doesnt look to bad right now...the system has a rather baroclinic appearance but there is more convection than earlier near the center...guess we wil have to see what happens with it.
Good night all
49. JLPR
hydrus thats correct hurricane San Felipe in 1928 with 160 mph

yep here is the isabel loop Link

and how can i tell that is moving west well I think I saw a little turn in sat imagery

sorry for not answering sooner was busy doing other stuff =P
33. JLPR 8:30 PM EST on December 30, 2007
wow
I was just watching some satellites pics of Isabel in 2003 while it passed north of PR wow big system PR was lucky it didnt passed through here if it did it would have being one day landfall another sunny and calm(the eye) and the other one the second half lol


My avatar is Hurricane Isabel on Sept. 12. 2003. I think this is one of the most beautiful hurricanes imaged since we started the satellite era. If u click on my avatar, you will be able to see the clarity and regularity of Isabel's eye. This is an astounding sight.
99W now where is 99W oh 98W is gone

Wikipedia also has some additional interesting images of Isabel.

I remember that Isabel frightened the life out of us here in the Bahamas because at first it seemed she was headed straight towards us, and there seemed to be nothing to prevent her from barreling into us at that cat. 5 status. (I think I am correct in recalling her as an annular storm.) We were relieved when she made that northwesterly turn and started to lose strength.
That would be near Malaysia and Borneo near the equator.
54. JLPR
BahaHurican yeah it was a real round system
Isabel was a hurricane I watched using only NHC and their connection to SSD, and it was one that helped me begin to locate other sources of imagery in particular regarding hurricanes. It was a particularly interesting storm because it helped me begin to understand the concept of eyewall replacement cycles.
JLPR- in one of my old weather books there is a photo of a pine board 11 ft long by 4 or so inches wide slammed through a palm tree from the 1928 storm.It is a very impressive display of natures power.
57. JLPR
wow hydrus thank God I didnt exist then =D
Bahahurr-for many years i have seen the bahamas get hit and battered,those islands are major league players when it comes to hurricanes.
JLPR-how many tropical cyclones have you witnessed?
60. JLPR
hydrus even thought San Felipe of 1928 was a cat 5 it isn't the deadliest on PR's history. Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 with 115mph killed 3,369 and San Felipe killed 312.

I hope only Ts come my way no place for canes here =D
JLPR-the san felipe storm was the same storm as the great ochechobee hurricane that killed 1836,but officials of the day said the death toll was higher.
62. JLPR
well the ones that I remember are
Georges (1998)
Jeanne (2004)
Olga (2007)

but there are also:

Marilyn (1995)
Hortense (1996)
but I was young and I dont remember them clearly =P

JLPR-i will say this,i remember all the storms you mentioned and went through 2 of them.I would try to tell you all the storms i have been through but it would take a long time for me to type them.
64. JLPR
yes hydrus thats true but i meant the death toll in PR only not all the ones that were killed in other countries wich would put the death toll at 4,078 people
JLPR-I understood you,I only mention it in passing.
66. JLPR
The most important one for me is Georges since it was the strongest system that I have lived through and it was actually the reason for me being here. I remember watching through the window and seeing the roof of my neighbor's second floor house being blown away. Here we only lost the antenna everything else remained in place =D.
67. JLPR
63. hydrus 3:29 AM GMT on December 31, 2007 Hide this comment.
JLPR-i will say this,i remember all the storms you mentioned and went through 2 of them.I would try to tell you all the storms i have been through but it would take a long time for me to type them.


=D lol
JLPR-the strongest windsspeeds i have witnessed in my life were in hrr. charley in 2004.They at A & M university said the wind here was 150 mph gusting to 182.
69. JLPR
well i must say that the strongest sustained winds I have witnessed are 115 mph and gusts to 150 mph from hurricane Georges obviously =P
70. JLPR
I hope i dont go higher than that any time soon =D
JLPR-I also went through jean which you mentioned.It was very bad here because we had just been hit by charley.Jean lasted 14 hours.
72. JLPR
wow one after the other difficult situation
Jeanne was almost a hurricane when it passed through here with 73mph but I dont remember how long it lasted i remember it starting around 10-11am but i dont remember until what hour it was out of PR
73. JLPR
95l moving definitely west and starting to develop some convection to the south of the center of circulation looks like 95l wants to be Pablo or Arthur but shear and fronts are out to get it =P
Despite New Providence's central location in the archipelago, we haven't experienced winds above 100 mph here since I was born (that was a while ago LOL). I've been through quite a few in my time, though the first I remember clearly was David in 1979. Since this new busy period has begun, I would name Andrew, Floyd, Michelle, Francis and Jeanne as memorable 'canes that have impacted Nassau.

However, we haven't had anything as bad as our own bout with the 1928 hurricane (the same one u have been talking about), which passed directly over Nassau on its way to Florida. Nassau had been previously hit by another storm in 1926, and other storms would lash the islands almost annually from that year until 1933 or 1934.
JLPR-we were about 25 n.m. from jeans eye,but the gusts were terrible.especially when both your houses have had trees smashed through them.Needless to say it was a long wet night.gusts were in the 120 range.
76. JLPR
thank God i dont have a lot of trees near =D only a palm tree and is quite far =)
JLPR-strangely,the trees may have saved our lives,even though they hit the houses, they deflected the highest gusts in charley.But there were no real trees left when jean hit.
dos any one have a link of some kind to this???

Weather forecast charts
indicate the potential for extremely strong winds
79. JLPR
I see hydrus those were then some good trees =)
Hey folks just wanted to come one 1 last time before we start fresh in 2008 and really wanted to wish everbody from jeff masters to all the great friends ive made on WU the best of luck and success in 2008.Ive been on WU now for almost 3 1/2 years and thoughout those years ive had some great times and look forward to providing all i can to this great community in the future.

If anyone wants to get in contact feel free anytime to email me at adrlnr@AdriansWeather.com

PS!Stay safe tommorow take care.
Baha huricane-i just read your post.I remember all of those being born in miami.I remember david vividly.My first,s were inez 1966 agnes 1972 belle 1976 -in Jersey.
Have a safe new year Hurricane 23.
JLPR-those trees were great.WE miss them tremendously.they were HUGE.
The eye of the 1928 hurricane actually passed just to the north of Nassau, and the lowest pressure reading was 951 mb. This means the pressure in the eye was likely lower. One other interesting thing about this storm is that it made landfall within a few miles of an earlier storm that year, like Francis and Jeanne.
85. JLPR
poor trees they are always the most affected.

Also i have a new blog with my most recent wunderphotos everyone is welcomed to comment and rate the pics.
well till tomorrow =P
goodnight everyone
=D
While I'm certainly glad to hear that the Sierra's will be getting a good snow pack, I hope it doesn't put too many in danger. Next weekend is the last weekend that most school children still have off. I would imagine that thoughts of skiing will be going through a good many heads this week with an anticipation of snow.

But living down in southern California this is good news for our water supply. We were up in Lake Tahoe last summer and the lake was a bit low. I've certainly seen it much lower, but it's a HUGE lake, and having a lower level all the way around can only mean a huge shortage of water.

Does anyone know if southern California will get anything out of this? Or will the storm stay up north only?
Happy New Year, 23.

And everybody else, too! LOL

hydrus, I have a very vague recollection of Agnes as a feeling of tension in the house, but I was too young to understand more.
Storms that have crossed from the Atlantic to the Pacific or the Pacific to the Atlantic, best records since the mid-1960s:
Atlantic Hurricane Cesar (July 1996) became Northeast Pacific Hurricane Douglas.
Atlantic Tropical Storm Bret (August 1993) became Hurricane Greg in the Northeast Pacific.
Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).
Atlantic Hurricane Joan (October 1988) became Northeast Pacific Hurricane Miriam.
Atlantic Hurricane Greta (September 1978) became Northeast Pacific Hurricane Olivia.
Atlantic Hurricane Fifi (September 1974) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Orlene.
Atlantic Hurricane Irene (September 1971) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Olivia.
Atlantic Hurricane Hattie (October-November 1961) became Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm Simone.
A Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became an Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and made landfall in TX.

Link
Baha hur-You mentioned the 1926 great miami hurricane.I spoke years ago with chris landsea.He said that the diameter of that storm was so large that most of the bahama islands were affected.Wish we had satellites then.
Baha -
read your link,and its funny hurricane alice was getting 80 MPG back in 55.
The 1926 Miami Hurricane did not do as much damage to Nassau, however, as the July 1926 hurricane which hit New Providence directly.

Here is a summary from Wikipedia. It's fairly accurate based on what I've read from other sources about the 'cane.

The Miami Hurricane did more damage to the Southeastern Bahamas; settlements on the island on which my mother's parents lived were almost completely destroyed, and many lives were lost. 1926 was not a good year for the Bahamas hurricane-wise . . ..
hydrus, I'm really looking forward to a revised category system that takes into account the size of storms and storm surge damage as well as their wind speed. I think storms of greater diameter, the ones that take 24 and 30 hours to cross a location, should be categorized by more than just how fast the wind is blowing.
. . . . its funny hurricane alice was getting 80 MPG back in 55.

That's why some of us don't yet rule out 95L. It's not IMPOSSIBLE for a storm to form . . . It's amazing a storm is able to get up to hurricane strength when it's cooled off so much.

OTOH, I don't know if I'd call current Bahamian / Floridian weather "cooled off" . . . .lol
Baha-you missed my feeble attempt at humour.I was refering to that link were it said the winds in hurricane alice were at 80 MILES PER GALLON....oh well.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression [999 hPa] located near 18.3S 41.1E or 1515 kms west of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.6S 41.9E 40 knots (Tempête Tropical Moderée)
48 HRS: 20.4S 41.7E 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Location of the low level center has been estimated with a good proxy according to microwave data (SSMI 0220z) which shows a better organization of the low level circulation, and a better defined curved band of deep convectio lightly eastward of the low level circulation center.

This center is temporarily tracking west-northwestward and it should curve eastward before tracking globally southward within the next 24 hours. Intensifying rapidly and accelerating as subtropical ridge is shifting eastward in the southern Mozambique Channel. Environment remains favorable. During Jan 01 2008 an upper level trough should build southwestward of the system. This should enhance poleward outflow and improve the upper level divergence allowing rapid intensification of the system.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [980 hPa] located near 18.8S 111.5E had 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The cyclone is moving west at 4 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre decreasing to 50 nautical miles by 0600
UTC 1 January.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre decreasing to 35 knots by 0600 UTC 01January.

Gale-Force Winds within 120 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.5S 109.7E 35 knots [Cat 1]
48 HRS: 20.3S 107.7E 30 knots [Tropical Low]
That storm Dr. Masters mentioned for the West Coast is currently looking pretty impressive. We could see some of the strongest winds in over a decade in parts of CA--with gusts in excess of 100 mph in favored locations. I will continue to discuss this upcoming storm system at length at Weather West.
Link

The entire state, including drought-parched Southern California, will see quite a bit of precipitation.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 31Dec)
==========================================
An area of convection (90P) located near 15.0S 135.1E or 285 NM east-southeast of Darwin, Australia. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a well defined area of low level cyclonic turning overland, but tracking eastward towards the Gulf of Carpentaria. Pressure falls at the center are near 2 mb in 24 hours. A TRMM Image shows convective banding on southern periphery of the disturbance. Upper level analysis reveals a 200 MB anticyclone has developed just to the east of the low level circulation center causing vertical wind shear values to lower.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a mimimum sea level pressure of 995 mb. Since the system is tracking closer to the coast and the upper level conditions are improving, the porential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR.
National Hurricane Center
Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Special Feature 2:05 AM EDT....

A large low pressure system producing Gale-Force Winds continues to spin centered near 27N 35W. A fortuitous report from drifting buoy 62901 located very near the low level center revealed a pressure of 1004 mb at 12:00 AM UTC so accordingly the minimum pressure was dropped to 1004 mb. This low has been meandering about for the past several days but now appears to be on a southwest heading as the upper shortwave is passing to the northeast allowing building mid level ridge to be the main steering element. A little more asymmetric and elongated tonight with convection confined to the northwest quadrant north of 27N between 35W-39W and in a naroow banded structure to the east of the center from 24N-29N between 30W-32W.

The strongest winds to 40 knots are located in the northwest semi-circle where the pressure gradient is tightest due to a 1029 mb high center near 33N 49W. Numerical Model guidance is in good agreement in showing this system moving to the southwest and weakening. This low or what ever is left of it will likely get picked up and absorbed by a large upper trough later this week.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low [994 hPa] located near 9.8S 100.4E had 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. The tropical low is moving east-southeast at 17 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants
HGW thanks for staying up late (Up early?) to post the updates.
Is anyone on this morning
well I guess 95L has finally fizzled...I will still watch it though in case there are any new year's surprises...anyway, the Southern Hemisphere is much more active. Melanie continues to weaken and become less organized, another tropical low is in the Perth area thats worth watching...and the low over the Top End could move out into water and develop as well.

In the Southwest Indian Basin, Meteo France currently has TD 06R west of Madagascar, and it should become a Moderate Tropical Storm at any time. The system could become a pretty powerful storm over the next few days.
Another reason why its worth watching is because wind shear is decreasing across much of the central atlantic so it will be interesting to see what happens.


Good morning and best wishes to everyone for a healthy, happy and prosperous 2008!

....uuuuuummm, does anyone know what the rather large, perfect circle is in the snow over Russia? Aliens?

It's showing up on another sat site, too. TIA
hi so evere one wish WHICH MODEL do YOU BELIEVE in ????

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST MON DEC 31 2007

MODELS...HPC FORECASTS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A PERIOD OF VERY STORMY WEATHER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW TAPS INTO ENERGY FROM THE
POLAR VORTEX AS COLD SIBERIAN AIR STRENGTHENS THE JETSTREAM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A 506DM UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE STAGE IS SET FOR
THREE SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST
WAVE ON THURSDAY MIGHT DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM REDDING TO
STOCKTON. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OROGRAPHICS LOOK GOOD WITH 700MB WINDS
WSW AT 70 KTS. SNOW LEVELS MIGHT START NEAR 6000 FEET (INITIAL QPF
UP THERE RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES). ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A VERY
STORMY DAY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY RAISE ABOVE DONNER PASS IN STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. A BOMB OF A SURFACE LOW (959 MB
TO 965 MB DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE
) IS OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS AN INCREDIBLE UPPER
DIVERGENCE / LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF A 500MB COLD POOL OF -30C FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUNGE
TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A
CORE OF 70KT WINDS AT 850MB MOVES OVER THE SAC VALLEY...AND MAY
FOCUS VERY HEAVY RAINS ON THE REDDING / RED BLUFF AREAS. THE LATEST
GFS HAS OVER 6 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE SIERRA...AND 4 INCHES IN THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY...DURING THE 24 HOURS ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT.
850-700MB WINDS ARE A PERFECT FOR OROGRAPHICS...MEANING EVEN THESE
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES MAY BE UNDER-DONE.

PRESENTLY IT APPEARS AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING MJO (MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION) HAS STALLED OUT NEAR 120-140E. THIS INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A COMBINATION OF A POLAR AND
TROPICAL FLOW...AND A RAIN-ON-SNOW EVENT WITH VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE THIRD SYSTEM...MOVING IN SUNDAY...HAS EVEN
MORE POLAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MODELS
CLOSELY AS THIS SYSTEM MAY SPLIT. FOR NOW...THE HI-RES ECMWF HAS A
988MB SURFACE LOW NEAR MT. LASSEN EARLY SUNDAY.
WHEN IT`S SAID AND DONE...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE OVER 10
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA BY NEXT MONDAY...WITH 4 TO 7
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STORMS WILL CONTAIN EXTREME WINDS. BE
AWARE THAT TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE DANGEROUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
Dr.Hurricane23,
Thank you for the last 07 update!


Here it is again, from another site?
In light of the severe forest fires over Socal recently this forecast is disturbing. Although I do know that the authorities are very aware of the danger of landslides etc in areas such as San Bernadino.

With Tasmania in the low 30 centigrade and Victoria in the low 40 centigrade bushfires are almost certain in Southern Australia. A lot of severe weather here at the moment.


Looks like convection is increasing near the center
A very, very happy New Year to everyone on Wunderground!!!

MLC - that looks like a very big hole in the Arctic Ice Cap - I sincerely hope it isn't.
MLC in the first image the 'perfect circle' looks like it is in the area of Lake Baykal but in the second it seems to be just North of Greenland or have I been celebrating too hard (it is 1;27 AM here)
The first is over land and the second is over water so I think that they are nothing
Thanks, sydney! It must just be a gliche in the data! LOL, celebrating! Watch out in that severe weather! Also, best wishes for 2008!
Yeehaa MLC onward and upward on 08!!!
this is the 1st time i have evere seen some in like this with a SHORT TERM FORECAST



SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
620 AM PST MON DEC 31 2007

CAZ006-505>518-311630-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
MONTEREY BAY...NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND
CARMEL VALLEY-BIG SUR COAST-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
620 AM PST MON DEC 31 2007

.NOW...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EAST BAY
HILLS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPACTING
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR URBAN FLOODING BY FRIDAY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR BY
THE WEEKEND AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND
ACCOMPANY EACH INDIVIDUAL RAIN EVENT IN THE PERIOD FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...URBAN
PONDING...OR STRONG WINDS MAY BE NEEDED BEGINNING VERY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
Good Morning,

last day to cast your vote at my blog for:

1. The most spectacular Atlantic Hurricane

2. The least spectacular Atlantic Tropical Storm

3. Names to be retired in Spring 2008

4. Tropical storms that should not have been named (If you feel all should be name, just choose the one that you would not be surprise if it did not get name.

5. Most powerful winter storm/tropical cyclone/natural diaster this year.

6. Coldest temperature recorded at your location (Give the average)

7. Warmest month you have encountered this year

8. Your goals for 2008

000
WONT41 KNHC 311440
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM AST MON DEC 31 2007

A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM
ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


oh well
Dr Masters and his staff and crew and all who post here!

Happy New Year to you all and may we have another fun year in 2008 together!!!


We are leaving for Marriott on Ft Lauderdale Beach this morning and I may not be back until late New years Day..so just in case..


Happy New Year to you and your family and hoping for a wonderful time again next year on WUnderground!!!



Happy New Year's
Gams & Poppy
Also 2morrow, new years visit my blog where i will have an interesting entry about how poor air quality in Beijing, China will affect the 2008 Summer Olympics. Seems as though officials are concern about the health of athletes.
Rain saves Atlanta from record drought

A fourth day of consecutive rainfall across Atlanta has saved the city from experiencing its driest year on record. The most arid year ever recorded for Atlanta was in 1954 when just 31.8 inches (807mm) of rain fell over the course of the year.

Meteorologists had expected this year to break that record, but an increase in the amount of rainfall over the weekend has brought the total to 31.85 inches (809mm). A series of rainstorms before Christmas also helped the city to exceed the total, with Atlanta receiving rain on ten of the last twelve days.

More than one third of south- east USA is in the midst of an ‘exceptional drought’, the worst category on the scale. Rain has been sparse across many cities in Georgia, with the water level in Lake Lanier reaching an all time low at the end of last week. Atlanta is in the centre of the worst affected region, which includes Tennessee, Alabama and North and South Carolina. The rain is forecast to ease into next week, with a return to a drier spell of weather.

Well everyone I have posted my 2007 Northern Hemisphere Cyclone review. Please feel free to make comments or make any corrections that need to be made.

Link
124. IKE
From this mornings Tallahassee,FL. weather discussion...on the cold temperatures coming up....

"Latest guidance is showing 850mb temperatures dropping to between -8 and
-13c from south to north by sunrise Wednesday morning. This is a
fairly impressive cold airmass for our neck of the Woods. Looking at
it statistically...these 850mb temperatures are -4.0 to -4.5 Standard
deviations from climatology. To put this in plain wording...a 4.0
Standard deviation event has a less than a one half percent (< 0.5%)
probability of occurrence. So...although we have certainly seen
colder airmass in the past...this is still a very rare occurrence."
Tropical Depression 06R/Tropical Cyclone 09S

1530 UTC DEC 31 2007

Pattern Type: Curved banding arc 0.50

Current Intensity: CI 2.5/35/997

Adjustments: None

Final Intensity: CI 2.5/35/997

Dvorak Trends:
1530 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.5



What a strange point of origin this cold air mass has! It seems to be coming in from the Pacific near where the California/Oregon coasts come together.

This site doesn't allow direct linking but the animations are cool:

go to coolwx.com
then go to Hourly U.S Weather Statistics
then find 24 hour movies on the upper left
then click on Pressure

The high pressure doesn't seem to have an arctic origin at all!

I'll try linking it here but doubt it will work

Link
Types of clouds

Deep low ready to to pound parts of Alaska and British Colombia

okay I understand that the season is over, why are we still seeing items becoming classified as invests? This is extremely odd.
The storm was declared an invest about 3 days ago and if you look at Dr. masters Image you will see that the storm developed
The intensity of these warm occlusion systems are incredible.

Station 46036 - wind gust 42.7 kts
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.14 in ( Falling Rapidly )

The 27th DEC 2007

Good day all.

Happy New Year to those I haven't greeted before.

456, the sheer size of those systems amazes me. I saw one last year [think I still have some pics, too] that stretched from the Prince Edward Islands to Baha California.
afternoon all,and a very happy new year to all
This Canada Weather site is a good place to look at loops of these big systems moving through. I usually select all images below the image and then play above it.
they are intense becuz they are partially warm-core. The coldest air is not behind the cold front but rather ahead over land as they approach from the west.
92S is a "Landpression" pressure is 998mb with winds of 30mph
131. Weather456 7:58 AM AKST on December 31, 2007 Hide this comment.
The intensity of these warm occlusion systems are incredible.


LOL...that is MILD are you kidding!? We had one roar through our area early this winter with a central pressure of 938mb and sustained winds of 120mph on the back side lol.
The 'arctic' high pressure center that is supposed to make things so cold seems to be coming in from the Pacific over Oregon. I thought Pacific origin air masses were not supposed to be very cold.

http://coolwx.com/usstats/movies/presmovie.gif
92S is a "Landpression" pressure is 998mb with winds of 30mph

Wow

Looks like Indian Monsoon Depressions.
137. Levi32 5:40 PM GMT on December 31, 2007
131. Weather456 7:58 AM AKST on December 31, 2007 Hide this comment.
The intensity of thesewarm occlusion systems are incredible.

LOL...that is MILD are you kidding!? We had one roar through our area early this winter with a central pressure of 938mb and sustained winds of 120mph on the back side lol.
Action: | Ignore User


I meant all in general not just that one storm.

139. Weather456 12:08 PM CST on December 31, 2007
92S is a "Landpression" pressure is 998mb with winds of 30mph

Wow

Looks like Indian Monsoon Depressions


The BOM refers to those as "landphoons", like here.
Michael, I like your Landphoon link! :)
95L RIPPED
Yes we can say RIP for 95L
T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

Is the SAB dvorak crazy? This doesnt look very tropical to me.
Too bad they don't issue bulletins like this for the Atlantic (the remarks section often has additional information in it).
developing storm over southern grt lakes gen snows of 6 to 8 inch with lake enhancement giving 10 to 12 inch beginning later to herald in new year snow fall adv.up for areas around s lakes in ont
Tropical Invest 90S*

1630 UTC DEC 31 2007

Pattern: Curve band 0.40 arc

Current Intensity: 2.0/30/1000

Adjustments: Lower the wind speed due to surface friction over land.

Final Intensity: CI 2.0/15/1000

Dvorak Trends:
1630 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.0

GaGuy~ It's wild how the north pole surface high looks to be slipping in our general direction. The Surface high that will be reponsible for bringing a possible freeze south of Lake O tue & wed night had a surface high while in the rockies of 1057mb..
Happy Holidays everyone, I hope the old fellow was good to you.
Storm W, how are you at medium range forcasts?
I will be in Cancun from the 5th of Jan until the 19th. I see the weather has not been great down there lately.. what can I expect?
152. JLPR
Photobucket
Tropical Depression 06R/Tropical Cyclone 09S

2230 UTC DEC 31 2007

Pattern Type: Excellent curve band about 0.52 arc

Current Intensity: CI 2.7/40/994

Adjustments: None

Final Intensity: CI 2.7/40/994

Dvorak Trends:
1530 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.5
2230 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.7

Trans-Atlantic Moisture Plume

A 200 mb upper trough stretches across the subtropical east to the tropical west Atlantic. Strong southwest flow typically lies ahead of these troughs. This flow drawing moisture from the Amazon Basin and carrying it across the Atlantic to the Sahara.

95L was embedded within this upper trough but latest obs show 95L have become shallow not extending upwards to 200 mb and 100 mb as before.



HAPPY 2008
i come as many but only one
Happy 2008 everyone! Current time is 00:08 UTC Jan 1
Happy New Year everybody!!

Thanks for this blog, all the learning oportunities, the wunderfull people and I hope for all that at least some of your wishes may come true.

Good night!
one of the first weather images of 2008

January 1, 2008! Happy new year! Welcome to 2008 Atlantic hurricane season!!!
January 1, 2008! Happy new year! Welcome to 2008 Atlantic hurricane season!!!
2008 here 2007 there...wow!!!
2008 there 2007 here...wow!!!
look at this 456 and evere one

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST MON DEC 31 2007

WED WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO CLOUDIER AND COOLER WX AS SLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF STORM #1 ON THU. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD PCPN ACROSS NORCAL PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY ON THU. 700 MBS
WINDS INCREASE TO 45-70 KTS INDICATING STRONG OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
SIERNEV...AND 925 MBS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH OVER 50KTS OVER
THE INTERIOR VALLEY. WE ARE CONSIDERING GOING WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH POSSIBLE WIND
ADVSRYS FOR THE VALLEY. WHAT MAKES THIS STORM A BIT TRICKY IS THE
COLD/DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...COMPLIMENTS OF THE STRONG HIGH
TO OUR E...WHICH MAY RETARD THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR AWHILE AND/OR
WREAK HAVOC WITH SNOW LEVELS DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. STORM #2
HOWEVER...IS EVEN STRONGER DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE PAC NW COAST
AND THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER JET INCREASING UVM OVER
NORCAL TO A WHOPPING 20 UBAR/S FROM THE SFC UP TO 300 MBS. THIS
STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 12/12/1995
STORM...WITH HEAVY PCPN AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH WINDS THAT MAY CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. BAND OF 65-75 KTS AT 850 MBS...AND 925 MBS WINDS
AROUND 65 KTS NOTED ON THE GFS OVER THE SAC VLY AROUND 18Z FRI ARE
AN OMEN OF A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY PCPN.
WINDS FROM 70-95 KTS AT 700 MBS ARE ALSO AN OMEN FOR DANGEROUSLY
HIGH GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON
SAT...BUT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL CONTINUE AS OROGRAPHICS AND UPWARD
MOTION CONTINUE. STORM #3 WILL BE A COLDER STORM AND IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
FROM THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CA...S OF SAC.
THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO DIP S OF OUR AREA DROPPING 850 MBS
TEMPS BELOW ZERO. THIS STORM COULD BRING VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS TO THE
AREA. THE GFS FORECASTS A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL EVENT FOR GVY ON
SUN...FOR EXAMPLE WITH OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE
SIERNEV FOOTHILL LOCATION. NORCA


i got a hurricane on the way 65kt wish would be 75mph wind on the valley floor with higher winds in the foothills i could see 100 to 110mph winds with this storm
I am 3hrs and 15 mins away from 2008.
Taz thanks 4 the update...i am waiting for the storm to come.
456 what you think about the wind storm i be geting ?
168. JLPR
165. Weather456 8:44 PM AST on December 31, 2007 Hide this comment.
I am 3hrs and 15 mins away from 2008.


just like me 3hrs and 5min left of 07 =P
167. Tazmanian 8:54 PM AST on December 31, 2007 Hide this comment.
456 what you think about the wind storm i be geting ?


From what i have been reading its going to a big one...perfect for studying..i dont know too much about West Coast Storms.
thats ok 456


happy new year 456 and evere one
happy new year too u taz and everyone.
thanks
Seychelles Meteorological Services upgrades Tropical Depression 06R and designates it as Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus
Happy New Year Everyone!
hmm 95L gale-force winds of 40 knots...

1 hr and 51 mins
i am 13 hours and 30 mins into 2008....its just the same as 2007...lol
Happy New Year All
Tropics 101

A and C- The Northeast Winter Monsoon is in full mode with very strong winds blowing from the Cold-Core Siberian High Pressure over the NW Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Red shades indicate winds in excess of 25 Knots. These winds are cold, dry and offshore and mark the dry season of areas across China, Indian and SE Asia. The winds continue to blow from the NE until they reach they equator where they turn towards the south and east due to Coriolis.

The Monsoon Trough and D - The monsoon trough is define as a convergence zone between south westerlies to the north and south easterlies (D) to the south. The south easterlies trades (D) are created by the subtropical ridges of the Southern Indian Ocean (just like the northeast trades here in the ATL).

The monsoon trough stretches from the Central Indian Ocean across Northern Australia into the SW Pacific Ocean. Tropical Cyclones Melanie and 90S are both embedded within this tropical cyclone breeding ground.

Lets move onto the second trough - SPCZ - South Pacific Convergence Zone which lies between south easterlies of transitory anticyclones and the permanent easterlies(E) from the far SE Pacific High.

B - Some times the mid-latitudes influence the intensity of the monsoon trough in what we call "surges". During the passage of a strong cold front north or south of the monsoon trough or SPCZ...the associated surface high which can be 1030 mb and above increases the trades as seen in B. You can also identify the high. These wind surges converges and rises into the monsoon trough and SPCZ. The faster the flow higher the winds air will rise (vertical motion). These surges often cause an increase in tropical cyclone activity.

Thank You for Reading.


Photobucket

Be careful if you're out celebrating tonight! Have a good time!
Best wishes for a Healthy, Happy & Prosperous Year!



...a lil "cowboy" humor to bring in the new year!

Lone Ranger and Tonto

The Lone Ranger and Tonto walked into a bar
and sat down to drink a beer. After a few
minutes, a big tall cowboy walked in and said,
"Who owns the big white horse outside?"

The Lone Ranger stood up, hitched
his gun belt, and said, "I do...Why?"

The cowboy looked at the Lone Ranger and
said, "I just thought you would like to
know that your horse is about dead outside!"

The Lone Ranger and Tonto rushed outside,
and sure enough, Silver was ready to die
from heat exhaustion. The Lone Ranger got
the horse water, and soon, Silver was
starting to feel a little better.

The Lone Ranger turned to Tonto and said,
"Tonto, I want you to run around Silver
and see if you can create enough of a
breeze to make him start to feel better."

Tonto said, "Sure, Kemosabe," and took off
running circles around Silver. Not able to
do anything else but wait, the Lone Ranger
returned to the bar to finish his drink.

A few minutes later, another cowboy struts
into the bar and asks, "Who owns that big
white horse outside?"

The Lone Ranger stands again, and claims,
"I do, what's wrong with him this time?"

The cowboy looks him in the eye and says,
"Nothing, but you left your Injun runnin'."
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

An upper level trough centered over the Eastern Rockies along 95W continues to push eastward accompanied by a surface cold front that stretches from Eastern Texas to the Great Lakes. There little shower activity associated with this feature south of 35N. However, satellite infrared imagery show this cold front is accompanied rather chilly air and surface observations out of Texas supports the finding.

Meanwhile, another frontal boundary goes from the Central Gulf of Mexico at 27N/90W across Florida north of 28N. This front lies within the Jet Entrance Region of an upper ridge over the Caribbean. Moisture along the front is mainly in the form of mid-upper level clouds within 300 nm ahead of the front from the Yucatan Peninsula across Western Cuba and Southern Florida.

Weak surface pressure will keep conditions fair elsewhere across the area.

A cold front goes from Northern Florida along 30N/78W 32N/70W 36N/60W. A 300 nm wide swath of multilayered cloudiness with embedded showers continues from Florida along the front. Patches of shallow clouds continue to be seen rotating in and around a dominant high pressure ridge now centered on a 1029 mb high near 32N/50W. This flow will continue to bring breezy weather and choppy seas to the Atlantic Coasts of Lesser and Greater Antilles...with the exception of Cuba.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A mid-upper ridge has its axis roughly along 30N/60W 22N/70W 18N/78W. Mid-high level cloudiness and showers are found across Central America and the Caribbean Sea west of 80W and south of 21N. This area is being caused by upper level divergence east of the upper ridge axis. The remainder of the Caribbean basin is under the influence of a substantial amount of mid-upper level dry air supported by our upper ridge. Deep convection thereby remains absent. However, that does not mean no rain. The dry is the mid and upper levels. Patches of surface moisture continue to be advected over the region increase wind and shower activity. They are most prevalent over the Northeast Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Caribbean Sea east of 70W.


By W456
Cancun 1-7 of January 2008

High pressure will be the dominate feature with easterly flow of 0-10 knots with occasionally 10-15 knots. Chance of showers will be 50% but these will be passing, brief and non-torrential. Relative humidity values 70-90% with 90% and above in the passage of passing showers. Seas will be less that 5 ft during 1-5 Jan and gradually increase to 5-7ft from the 7 onwards.

By W456
182. JLPR
27min till 2008 =P
183. JLPR
...
17 mins till 2008
Happy New Year! 2008 is here.
Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus

0330 UTC JAN 01 2008

Pattern Type: Curve banding continues to grow. It now arces to about 0.60 arc.

Current Intensity: CI 3.0/45/991

Adjustments: None

Final Intensity: CI 3.0/45/991

Dvorak Trends:
1530 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.5
2230 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.7
0030 UTC 01 JAN 2008 - CI 3.0

Back atcha, 456.

We still have about 52 minutes to go . . . LOL

188. JLPR
Happy 2008!!! =P 12 mins late lol
45 minutes till 2008 for me.
Happy 2008 to Central America, Cuba, the Bahamas and US and Canada East Coast.
lol, mets here changing their forcast from snow showers to a winter storm warning for many counties in western N.C.

Half a foot of snow!
Happy New Year!!!!!!
What is the criteria for a blizzard?
A blizzard is a severe winter storm condition characterized by low temperatures, strong winds, and heavy blowing snow. Blizzards are formed when a high pressure system, also known as a ridge, interacts with a low pressure system; this results in the advection of air from the high pressure zone into the low pressure area. The term blizzard is sometimes misused by news media to describe a large winter storm that does not actually satisfy official blizzard criteria.

According to Wikipedia
Also a wiki definition:

[edit] Definition
Because the factors involved with the classification of winter storms are complex, there are many different definitions of the word blizzard. A major consensus is that in order to be classified as a blizzard, as opposed to merely a winter storm, the weather must meet several conditions: There must be falling or blowing snow, strong winds, and cold or falling temperatures. What the measurements must amount to for a blizzard to be classified as such depends on where you are. It is also a severe storm, that goes up to 30 mph of wind speed, and the temperature drops below freezing.


[edit] Canada
According to Environment Canada, a winter storm must have winds of 40 km/h (25 mph) or more, have snow or blowing snow, visibility less than 1 km (about 5⁄8 mile), a wind chill of less than −25 °C (−13 °F), and that all of these conditions must last for 4 hours or more before the storm can be properly called a blizzard.


[edit] United Kingdom
Other countries, such as the UK, have a lower threshold: the Met Office defines a blizzard as "moderate or heavy snow" combined with a mean wind speed of 48 km/h (30 mph) and visibility below 200 m (650 ft). When all of these conditions persist after snow has stopped falling, meteorologists refer to the storm as a ground blizzard.


[edit] United States
In the United States, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as sustained 35 mph (56 km/h) winds which leads to blowing snow and causes visibilities of ¼ mile or less, lasting for at least 3 hours. Temperature is not taken into consideration when issuing a blizzard warning, but the nature of these storms are such that cold air is often present when the other criteria are met. [2]

193. HurricaneKing 11:07 PM CST on December 31, 2007
Happy New Year!!!!!!


Not quite yet!!!
196. BahaHurican 11:30 PM CST on December 31, 2007
Also a wiki definition:


I don't think I have ever had a blizzard based on any of those criteria; even the biggest snowstorm in recent history wasn't actually a blizzard, even though it is often referred to as such.

Also, Happy New Years!
And here is a definition from the AMS glossary:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

blizzard—A severe weather condition characterized by high winds and reduced visibilities due to falling or blowing snow.
The U.S. National Weather Service specifies a wind of 30 knots (35 miles per hour) or greater, sufficient snow in the air to reduce visibility to less than 400 m (0.25 miles). Earlier definitions also included a condition of low temperatures, on the order of −7°C (20°F) or lower, or −12°C (10°F) or lower (severe blizzard). The name originated in the United States but it is also used in other countries. In the Antarctic the name is given to violent autumnal winds off the ice cap. In southeastern France, the cold north wind with snow is termed blizzard (see also boulbie). Similar storms in Russian Asia are the buran and purga. In popular usage in the United States and in England, the term is often used for any heavy snowstorm accompanied by strong winds.



2008 "Year of the Rat" ^_^ though it begins February 4th
Nothing like lighting in a heavy snow storm just as the Ball drops in Times Square. (South Bend, Indiana)

Happy New Year Y'all!!! It's offically new year now, because it's 2008 in Centeral Time!!!
203. BtnTx
Happy New Year to All in the WU Blog Family !!!
... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday afternoon...

Snow showers and snow squalls will develop Tuesday afternoon and
continue into Wednesday afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations
are expected to exceed 6 inches across higher elevations in the
western portions of Ashe... Watauga... and Grayson County. In
addition... gusty northwest winds will likely create areas of
blowing snow as well as very cold wind chills by Wednesday
morning.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor
the latest forecasts.


This snow might close school on Thursday! :)
Happy 2008. hopefully a quite hurricane season.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELNUS ADVISORY NUMBER SEVEN - ISSUED AT 6:00 AM UTC
=============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus [994 hPa] located near 18.9S 40.9E or 1515 kms west of the coast of Reunion had 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds 35 knots within 20 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant.

Near Gale force winds within 30 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 40.7E 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.5S 40.4E 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus remains quasi-stationary within the last 6 hours. The system is expected tracking progressively south-southwestward then southward towards a weak in the subtropical high pressures belt and regulary intensify thanks to a very favorable environment (Warm Sea Surface Temperatures of 29-30C, Good Low Level Inflows, and Upper Level Outflows). Stronger winds extend further in the southeast of the system due to the gradient with the subtropical high pressures.

Best Wishes and Happy New Year 2008
H A P P Y * N E W * Y E A R * 2 0 0 8 * !

........o


.......o
........o
...|******|
...|******|
...\******/
.....\.***/
.......{ }
........||
........||
........||
......~~~

~ *clink!* ~
kellnerp (201.)

VERY COOL! :~)
Great start to an exciting year...
with Mother Nature adding the punctuation!
TROPICAL CYCLONE MELANIE ADVISORY NUMBER TWENTY-ONE - Issued at 6:00 AM UTC
===============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Melanie [986 hPa] located near 19.9S 110.6E had 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is moving south-southwest at 5 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre in southwest quadrant decreasing to 40 nautical miles in northeast quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre decreasing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 02January.

Gale Force Winds within 100 nautical miles of the centre in southwest quadrant decreasing to 40 nautical miles in northeast quadrant with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000 UTC 02January.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.6S 108.5E 30 knots [Tropical Low]
TROPICAL LOW 05U ADVISORY NUMBER SIX - issued at 6:00 AM UTC
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low [994 hPa] located near 12.8S 106.7E had 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The cyclone is moving east-southeast at 14 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants

FORECAST
West-Northwest winds 25/35 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants. Winds easing below Gale-Force Winds by 0000UTC 02January.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
92S


=========================
IDW23200
40:3:1:24:13S107E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0715UTC 1 JANUARY 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal eight south [12.8S]
longitude one hundred and six decimal seven east [106.7E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 14 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in northern quadrants


FORECAST
W/NW winds 25/35 knots rough to very rough seas moderate swell within 120
nautical miles in northern quadrants. Winds easing below 34 knots by 0000UTC 2
January.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 01 January: Within 35 nautical miles of 13.7 south 109.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.

At 0600 UTC 02 January: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.7 south 112.6 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.


Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 01 January 2008.


WEATHER PERTH

==========================
215. petet
hey
i had a lot links for south-west indian ocean for satellite images,current weather etc but i lost them (cuz my computre blocked) so
if someone knows something,can send it to me,please?(on mail or here)

thanks a lot

Happy New Year 2008
All the best for everyone
Happy New Year to all:
Shen
Has anyone seen the fact that 95L is trying to make a comeback
Trying, yes, but will it likely succeed? No. Shear is currenty low, but gets very hostile to the southwest.
well lets see what it can do today if it can get convection over the center then it may have a chance
Also I was just looking at shear analysis and if it can stay north of the 30 knt shear then it will have a bullseye of 5 knt shear then it will increase to 15-20 knts then decrease again also midlevel shear is not too bad there either
shear tendency is also down by 40 knts just to the SW
Happy New Year Shen
GM,

Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus

1300 UTC JAN 01 2007

Pattern Type: Sheared 3/4 degrees from center but excellent banding and convection remains.

Current Intensity: CI 2.5/35/997

Adjustments: None

Final Intensity: CI 2.5/35/997

Dvorak Trends:
1530 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.5
2230 UTC 31 DEC 2007 - CI 2.7
0030 UTC 01 JAN 2008 - CI 3.0
1300 UTC 01 JAN 2008 - CI 2.5

Moderate Tropical Storm Elnus (24 hr Rainfall Reports)

13:00 UTC 01 JAN 2007 - Morondava, Madagascar (Toliara) - 24.6 mm
13:00 UTC 01 JAN 2007 - Morombe, Madagascar (Toliara) - 50.1 mm

Reference Map:






Storm Over the Eastern Great Lakes

it was fun reading through some of last years posts!
2007 weather wrap up
Paul Graham, Tuesday January 1, 2008 - 19:50 EDT

2007 was a warm year across most of Australia, according to weatherzone.com.au. The warmest spots were southern NSW, central Victoria, southeast South Australia and inland Western Australia. It was a year of continuing drought for much of the south. The year started with El Nino but finished with La Nina and improving rainfall in eastern states.

Some of the most significant weather was: extreme February heat in Western Australia (Marble Bar had a mean daily maximum of 44.9 degrees); warmest May on record in eastern states; three June east coast lows in NSW, bringing flooding and damaging winds (one beached the cargo ship, the Pasha Bulker); record cold and wet June in the tropics; widespread July snow in Victoria and NSW; flooding rain in late August on the Sunshine Coast (Coops Corner received a phenomenal 772mm 24 hour total); severe hailstorm in western Sydney on December 9th.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2008
I have updated by blog....

Today's Topic: Air Quality at 2008 Olympics

Viewer Comments: Do you think China should hold the 2008 Olympics and if you was an athlete what would be your concerns?

Wednesday's Blog: California Storm

update for 456 i got a 954mb storm comeing my way and the winds went up from 65 on monday to a round 70kt with tuesday update this is going to be a vary powerfull wind storm



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST TUE JAN 1 2008



A VERY POWERFUL STORM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS HAD A 954MB SURFACE LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...06Z GFS IS WEAKER BUT FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS...AND THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. 06Z GFS STILL HAS 6
TO 8 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE SIERRA FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND 3 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY...TO PERHAPS 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR
SACRAMENTO AND STOCKTON. ASSUMING A 10:1 RATIO IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THIS `SIERRA CEMENT`...THIS TRANSLATES TO 8 FEET OF SNOW IN 24
HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THESE TYPES OF ACCUMULATIONS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE A VERY STRONG WIND EVENT WITH PERHAPS A
15-18MB GRADIENT FROM MFR TO SAC...A CORE OF 70KT WINDS AT H850MB
MOVES INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
Taz, i will have blog on it 2morrow....the TWC was talking about it.
...