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95L drenching the Keys, could develop into a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on October 17, 2011

A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending 8 am Saturday October 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.

Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wow, busy night weatherwise.

goodnight!
anyone chasing Florida tomorrow? instability and shear look to be increasing after noon... thoughts anyone?
503. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Quarter inch here today, DDR.
But it looked like it was heavy where you are.
How much did you record?

Piarco recorded .59" so far.

Just a trace,the heavy stuff passed to my north and west.Its hard to believe piarco only got 2 inches on saturday and i got 8.4
Nighttime tornadoes are the worst...and I'm caught without my Weather Radio.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-181930-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
I don't understand why invest 95 isn't named yet. The last hurricane hunter found surface winds at 40 mph. It seems like someone just isn't in the mood to name very many storms this season. Maybe a policy change.

John
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nighttime tornadoes are the worst...and I'm caught without my Weather Radio.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033- 039 -053>056-181930-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
stay safe mang

I'm out for now
Quoting goodsign:
I don't understand why invest 95 isn't named yet. The last hurricane hunter found surface winds at 40 mph. It seems like someone just isn't in the mood to name very many storms this season. Maybe a policy change.

John

They found no circulation associated with the system. So basically, its a large thunderstorm with exceptionally large amounts of rain and strong winds.
Quoting trey33:


And as much I do like Paul and Steve, I feel compelled to enter a vote for Josh Linker too. (can't type today for some reason sorry)


Not much of a fan of Josh Linker. For personal reasons rather than weather reasons. I think my favorite is Bobby Deskins. I wish he got more air time. Plus he is an awesome person in general. Steve Jerve I don't know well enough to form an opinion, although I haven't heard the best things. Did anyone watch the West Central Florida AMS meeting that was live streamed? Steve Jerve, Bobby Deskins and Andy Johnson were on a weather panel. Very informative.
Quoting goodsign:
I don't understand why invest 95 isn't named yet. The last hurricane hunter found surface winds at 40 mph. It seems like someone just isn't in the mood to name very many storms this season. Maybe a policy change.

John


Lack of a surface circulation is the key contribute here.
nice supercell rotating towards Key West right now SMW for a tornadic waterspout... sr helicity 100-200 m2s2 in that area attm...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They found no circulation associated with the system. So basically, its a large thunderstorm with exceptionally large amounts of rain and strong winds.


No, there is an area of low pressure. It just doesn't qualify to be named. Its not just a large thunderstorm. It is not a warm cored, closed low. Thunderstorms are well removed from the center, and it has a warm front. Its just a baroclinic low that has a massive amount of moisture equivalent to a tropical system.

If it was purely warm cored system lacking fronts with a closed low level center, we would be talking a solid 50 mph sustained storm or some where around there. Just because it isn't named, doesn't mean it doesn't pack a punch.
i dont think that much rain will make it up to central florida the latest radar loop shows alot of that moisture cutting across south florida and not much going to north
Quoting Jedkins01:


No, there is an area of low pressure. It just doesn't qualify to be named. Its not just a large thunderstorm, that would be highly incorrect. It is not a warm cored, closed low. Thunderstorms are well removed from the center, and it has a warm front. Its just a baroclinic low that has a massive amount of moisture equivalent to a tropical system.

If it was purely warm cored system lacking fronts with a closed low level center, we would be talking a solid 50 mph sustained storm or some where around there. Just because it isn't named, doesn't mean it doesn't pack a punch.

And I never said it didn't.., it should be quite the storm.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And I never said it didn't.., it should be quite the storm.



I didn't say you did, I just make statements a lot, not necessarily trying to prove anything to anyone, that's how I talk :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


No, there is an area of low pressure. It just doesn't qualify to be named. Its not just a large thunderstorm, that would be highly incorrect. It is not a warm cored, closed low. Thunderstorms are well removed from the center, and it has a warm front. Its just a baroclinic low that has a massive amount of moisture equivalent to a tropical system.

If it was purely warm cored system lacking fronts with a closed low level center, we would be talking a solid 50 mph sustained storm or some where around there. Just because it isn't named, doesn't mean it doesn't pack a punch.
I think he's just stating it in laymans terms, not trying to be technical...So if that low had closed off, wouldn't it had classified as being a Subtropical Storm being that the hurricane hunters were finding those kind of winds well removed from the center?
Quoting CANTTAKEITANYMORE:
i dont think that much rain will make it up to central florida the latest radar loop shows alot of that moisture cutting across south florida and not much going to north


...alot of dry air needs to be eroded away but that will happen via falling precip and a surge of moisture that will take place later tonight across florida
Winds definitely picking up from SSW to SW here in Tampa.
i only see southern florida getting the brunt of this whatever it is the dry air line looks like its keeping the ball of convectiona moving across south florida and not much going north
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think he's just stating it in laymans terms, not trying to be technical...So if that low had closed off, wouldn't it had classified as being a Subtropical Storm being that the hurricane hunters were finding those kind of winds well removed from the center?


Yeah true, but I like my science pretty technical, lol.

I'm not sure where they found the strongest winds, if they were close to the center or not. I would imagine the strongest winds would be on the southwestern edge of the strong convective development in the gulf.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And I never said it didn't.., it should be quite the storm.

That's okay man, you were giving a general explanation to a new blogger. BTW sorry I got so serious with you the other night, did not know you were being sarcastic.
Quoting AWeatherLover:


Steve Jerve, Bobby Deskins and Andy Johnson were on a weather panel. Very informative.


During the '04 season, maybe because of too many adult beverages during too many storms that had too many power outages, we nicknamed Steve Jerve "Swerve" (maybe you had to be there).

Quoting DJMedik91:
Winds definitely picking up from SSW to SW now here in Tampa.


Its been cloudy but quiet all day in Sebring/ Avon Park area, but I can hear the wind starting to pick up now. The storm is moving towards us, and things will get very lively tomorrow I think.
anywhere just east the the low (whatever form it takes) will take the brunt... rainfall will be much less than say last week's event across the EC here, but the storms that form will be stronger, actually in part to some of that dry air that is around... a path into the north florida seems reasonable and south of there will see the worst of it.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's okay man, you were giving a general explanation to a new blogger. BTW sorry I got so serious with you the other night, did not know you were being sarcastic.

Huh? What happened?

(I seriously think I have Short Term Memory Loss, lol)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh? What happened?

(I seriously think I have Short Term Memory Loss, lol)
Then that must mean I have a good Long Term Memory or I dwell on things from the past...but it was over my prediction of 21/7/4 and how I said it was about time the Caribbean got active, and then you posted an image of Wilma and said because that is a good thing and I said you put words in my mouth or something like that.
I dont see where you get that Recon didnt find a closed Circulation... they did, infact it's obvious on Sat, Radar out of Meridian and other surface and ship reports...

The reason the NHC didn't name this a Tropical Storm was cause the thunderstorms were well away from the LLC center. Until T-Storms fire up near the LLC.. this will be more of a Baroclonic low... we will see what happens tonight into Tues to see if it does or if a circulation reforms just west of the main T-Storms around 25N and 85W
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Then that must mean I have a good Long Term Memory or I dwell on things from the past...but it was over my prediction of 21/7/4 and how I said it was about time the Caribbean got active, and then you posted an image of Wilma and said because that is a good thing and I said you put words in my mouth or something like that.

Ohhhhhh....I remember now, lol.

That was no big deal, I was kidding anyways.
Quoting scottsvb:
I dont see where you get that Recon didnt find a closed Circulation... they did, infact it's obvious or Sat, Radar out of Meridian and other surface and ship reports...

The reason the NHC didn't name this a Tropical Storm was cause the thunderstorms were well away from the LLC center. Until T-Storms fire up near the LLC.. this will be more of a Baroclonic low... we will see what happens tonight into Tues to see if it does or if a circulation reforms just west of the main T-Storms around 25N and 85W
So wouldn't it qualify as a Subtropical Storm, or am I missing something here?
subtropical storm it's not cause it doesn't have them characteristics
Last night all the experts(even Taz) had this mess named Rina by tonight. I questioned the drooling to no avail. What happened?
Quoting scottsvb:
I dont see where you get that Recon didnt find a closed Circulation... they did, infact it's obvious on Sat, Radar out of Meridian and other surface and ship reports...

The reason the NHC didn't name this a Tropical Storm was cause the thunderstorms were well away from the LLC center. Until T-Storms fire up near the LLC.. this will be more of a Baroclonic low... we will see what happens tonight into Tues to see if it does or if a circulation reforms just west of the main T-Storms around 25N and 85W



not a single west wind was reported by recon. it either wasnt closed or the west winds were on shore
TOR for the upper keys now...
Quoting FrankZapper:
Last night all the experts(even Taz) had this mess named Rina by tonight. I questioned the drooling to no avail. What happened?

Wind shear.
Well, Baynews9 (Tampa Bay Area Cable News) just said 100% rain of chance tomorrow. They almost never say 100% so I am pretty darn sure we are going to get pounded tomorrow. Then comes the cold weather, should be a couple of eventful weather days, regardless of if 95L is named or not (the window is closing, but it's still possible it gets named). By Thursday it's all over except the cold weather.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 1016 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER HAWK
CHANNEL BETWEEN LONG KEY AND TENNESSEE REEF...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LONG KEY...AND THE COMMUNITY OF LAYTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE IT AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. LIE FLAT IN A LOW SPOT ON THE GROUND AND COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.


LAT...LON 2481 8080 2481 8082 2480 8084 2480 8086
2481 8085 2484 8081 2485 8079 2484 8078
2483 8079 2482 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 147DEG 8KT 2477 8079



KASPER
Quoting Guysgal:

Uhh..I'm not smoking anything...
Well, Baynews9 (Tampa Bay Area Cable News) just said 100% chance of rain tomorrow. They almost never say 100% so I am pretty darn sure we are going to get pounded tomorrow. Then comes the cold weather, should be a couple of eventful weather days, regardless of if 95L is named or not (the window is closing, but it's still possible it gets named). By Thursday it's all over except the cold weather.
NWC Tornado warnings just issued for Middle Keys, Monroe County, Long Key and Layton - "take cover now" and with a special Marine warning...waterspouts until approx. 11pm.
Wow, just saw, possible tornado in the Keys. The only footage of a tornado I actually filmed myself was a water spout that hit Duval street (very minimal damage). Hope everybody is OK.
Definitely the most consolidated that we have seen Invest 95L since its beginning. Now, if it a closed circulation under that deep convection, we'd have a tropical storm. We'll have to see what happens tonight and tomorrow, but I doubt the NHC will name it. Regardless, the effects will be the same.

Good night all.

other storms to the south of key west are still looking impressive, about an hr out from the islands
Quoting congaline:


Its been cloudy but quiet all day in Sebring/ Avon Park area, but I can hear the wind starting to pick up now. The storm is moving towards us, and things will get very lively tomorrow I think.


I agree. All day it was pretty much calm here. After sunset the winds picked up from the SW.
I tried to + your comment, but my stupid "smart" phone shifted at the last second and made it a -. Sorry bout that!
I am in Key West, looking at radar, looks like cell is about a half hour out from direct hit, looks like Hawk Cay Marathon Long Key Layton...getting heavy 60dbz. Also seeing a lot of popping coming up from underneath current cell. I hope to get out tomorrow and get some pics of flooding. Right now, rains picking up, winds gusting, no big deal, but with all the standing water on flooded roads from today, anymore rain, will just make it worse. Keeping the kids home from school, whether or not they cancel. Usually they don't cancel unless winds are blowing at 35mph. Hope everyone is fairing through this eve safe and well. Peace out - good night.
Quoting acl8610:
anywhere just east the the low (whatever form it takes) will take the brunt... rainfall will be much less than say last week's event across the EC here, but the storms that form will be stronger, actually in part to some of that dry air that is around... a path into the north florida seems reasonable and south of there will see the worst of it.


Actually, moisture levels in East Central Florida will be much higher with this system than the last system. Its just that the weather setup doesn't favor as much rain. But with the last system, PWAT's were about 1.8 to 20 inches max. This system we are talking moisture at 2.50 to 2.75, it doesn't really get much more moist than that.


With the last weather event, dynamics favored training of strong repetitive bands over East Central Florida. If you had the same dynamical setup with this system over the east coast, we would be talking 15 to 25 inches of rain instead due to higher moisture.

Naturally we assume that systems that produce more rain have more moisture, and systems that produce less have less moisture, to a degree that is true, but its a lot more complex than that. Way more factors other than moisture go into how much rain falls.

In fact, you can have relatively low atmospheric moisture, and get very high rain amounts, if dynamics and other factors make up for lack of moisture. Like wise you can have a massive amount of moisture and less rain amounts if other factors go against higher rain amounts.


Hope that clears up any confusion.

It seems that 95L got sheared by stationary front and now the stationary front is trying to develop and is being sheared by 95L. If one of these features wasn't there then the other one would become a named storm. A very odd occurence.
Quoting will40:



not a single west wind was reported by recon. it either wasnt closed or the west winds were on shore


We didnt need verification of a west wind.. we had it on sat,radar,ship,bouy and land obs.. what was needed was the pressure of the LLC offshore... it wasn't named cause there were no T-Storms around the LLC.

As of 11pm eastern.. the LLC is still around 21.8N and 89W.. drifting... the LLC will be elongated and reform further north around 26N and 86W on Tuesday
95L is looking strong and I think we still hours away from peak Dmax. What I am not sure is where the heck is the surface circulation, under the deepest convection or elsewhere? We may have to wait for visible to be sure, but any opinions would be appreciated.
.
Quoting scottsvb:


We didnt need verification of a west wind.. we had it on sat,radar,ship,bouy and land obs.. what was needed was the pressure of the LLC offshore... it wasn't named cause there were no T-Storms around the LLC.

As of 11pm eastern.. the LLC is still around 21.8N and 89W.. drifting... the LLC will be elongated and reform further north around 26N and 86W on Tuesday


I see it! Using the RGB it appears the naked swirl from this afternoon (visible) is where you said. Think it will drift north into the convection?
Should clarify comment 553... Think it will drift into the convection, reform or neither?
Quoting Grothar:
.

Hey Dr. Grother are you back or what? We miss ya man.
Evening everyone...........could be a new LLC forming as the main center.....
Started training showers here. Little mesocyclones coming through.

95L looks like it is trying to couple with that trough. It's taking 20-30kts of shear though. 850vort..getting something off the east coast. Not real stable scene.
23N 86.3W could be a new LLC forming.........
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone...........could be a new LLC forming as the main center.....


That could happen... the LLC is really defined well right now compared to 12hrs ago..especially 24hrs ago. Dry air on the back side of the trough really hurt this from becoming a TS.. how many times in how many years do we see this on GOM systems coming North and finding dry air in the western-central gulf... too many times...lol

Still though.. new LLC will form on Tuesday further north
There appears to be a low level circulation developing around 23n 86w per Dvorak IR...
Quoting scottsvb:


That could happen... the LLC is really defined well right now compared to 12hrs ago..especially 24hrs ago. Dry air on the back side of the trough really hurt this from becoming a TS.. how many times in how many years do we see this on GOM systems coming North and finding dry air in the western-central gulf... too many times...lol

Still though.. new LLC will form on Tuesday further north


Hey Scott, Take a look at RGB and at the location is just Posted.......sure looking like a new spin starting to me.....don't know tho for sure.
i trans-versed numbers it is 23N 86.3W
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey Scott, Take a look at RGB and at the location is just Posted.......sure looking like a new spin starting to me.....don't know tho for sure.


Could be a new Midlevel center around 850mb-700mb range.. take about 12-18hrs for it to come all the way down to the surface..but not sure it will be tropical.. more baraclonic...Dark side clouds everything.. (so says Yoda)
Quoting TampaSpin:
i trans-versed numbers it is 23N 86.3W


That's better. That's around where I see it.
Quoting Grothar:
.
.. - .. -- .-.
I do have 5 different Floaters up for you all on Invest 95L for those that don't know....

the Channel 2 loop does not appear that the LLC just off the Yucatan is very strong now....almost gone it appears....so something is spinning somewhere.....LOL
I thought you ment somewhere else... like check the visible sat around 25N and 87.2... I think that's where it will reform tonight into Tuesday and move NE towards Pasco-Citrus county Tuesday night
Quoting scottsvb:
I thought you ment somewhere else... like check the visible sat around 25N and 87.2... I think that's where it will reform tonight into Tuesday and move NE towards Pasco-Citrus county Tuesday night


Wow that is a bit further NOrth than i would have thought but heck you are usually correct......
definately a new llc forming.Nhc better wake up and name this thing,it is a tc now in my opinion!
Check out the cold front firing convection as it races through Texas... The big collision takes place in the morning.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow that is a bit further NOrth than i would have thought but heck you are usually correct......


I could be wrong..but that's where the ECMWF puts it by 12Z Tues from the 12z run earlier today.. also GFS hints it will reform around that area.. so I'm watching that.. models performances do go down in later Oct-Nov..so who knows.....
Quoting scottsvb:
I thought you ment somewhere else... like check the visible sat around 25N and 87.2... I think that's where it will reform tonight into Tuesday and move NE towards Pasco-Citrus county Tuesday night


There is about 3 different spins but you speed them up...........there is for sure one stronger than the others and it is near the location i posted......gotta say tho the location u just posted a spin is starting tho.
Quoting Grothar:
.

Salut!
Quoting scottsvb:


I could be wrong..but that's where the ECMWF puts it by 12Z Tues from the 12z run earlier today.. also GFS hints it will reform around that area.. so I'm watching that.. models performances do go down in later Oct-Nov..so who knows.....


YEPPERS early season and late season they have difficult times.
I just wrote a blog on 95L, if anyone wants to read.

I will be back later if time permits.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Check out the cold front firing convection as it races through Texas... The big collision takes place in the morning.


That collision is what i am worried about....been saying the last 3 days that this collision could really bring a major Tornado outbreak over Florida and up the East Coast.....this thing is going to explode in the NE. I hope they are ready as some i know just don't see it coming!
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't see it coming much further North than Tampa Bay. Likely to move in south of Tampa!
Quoting DJMedik91:
Winds definitely picking up from SSW to SW here in Tampa.
Huh??

Blowing east and south east across all of Florida still.

I am in Naples and still no south or southwest wind yet...
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Check out the cold front firing convection as it races through Texas... The big collision takes place in the morning.


Yes. And moisture is seen rapidly pulling north in the Bay of Campeche, in response to the rapidly digging trough several hundred miles to the north.

Eventually there could be enough moisture return to allow 95L to get a much better moisture field to work with and stop struggling against the huge mountain of dry air to its NW.
Anything coming in just north of Tampa would be very bad flooding for the city area.......people just don't realize how the city is located and its a near sea level.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Huh??

Blowing east and south east across all of Florida still.

I am in Naples and still no south or southwest wind yet...
Yeah... I've sitting at calm in NW Hillsborough...
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't see it coming much further North than Tampa Bay. Likely to move in south of Tampa!


Seems so, cause that Dry air barrier keeps moving S....
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Check out the cold front firing convection as it races through Texas... The big collision takes place in the morning.


Watch out because that collision will cause a huge bang, which may well shake the windows and the cupboards all around the East Gulf coast region. If it happens early enough, it could be a rude awakening for a lot of people.
I just finish looking at the goldfish game here in Miami, to my surprise I can see a big blog!!!!! moving East according to the information on Invest 95L,this means that we will get a direct hit from this thing here in South FLorida,I don't see it moving NE anymore,any thoughs??,thank you.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Anything coming in just north of Tampa would be very bad flooding for the city area.......people just don't realize how the city is located and its a near sea level.


Downtown Tampa, South Tampa (Interbay peninsula), parts of West Tampa and the Port Tampa area are low-lying and near sea level.

But North Tampa, especially in the area around USF, is actually around 55 feet above sea level.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Watch out because that collision will cause a huge bang, which may well shake the windows and the cupboards all around the East Gulf coast region. If it happens early enough, it could be a rude awakening for a lot of people.
I'm just going to keep watching because I honestly have no idea how this is going to turn out. It *looks* like this could blow up really fast, but that is not very likely synoptically.



I doubt a LLC could be displaced too far this these kind of cloud tops.......gotta have a LLC pretty close.
So since all the updates everywhere seem to be from this morning or this afternoon where is the spin, or attempt at a spin, supposed to be? Is it still there just above the Yucatan? Why does it seem like Accuweather and NHC sites seem like they are closed for the winter in the hurricane sections?
Quoting TampaSpin:



I doubt a LLC could be displaced too far this these kind of cloud tops.......gotta have a LLC pretty close.


The LLC is just on the center of the left side of that blob.

But TampaSpin, the more interesting feature is that little blob above and to the left of the main area of convection. It just suddenly percolated into existence in this last satellite image. And the image is so new that no one has really had a chance to comment on that, or to speculate on what it might mean.

My guess is that the atmosphere to the north of the system, which has been bone dry up until now, may be starting to moisten up a bit. This could allow the storm to regain a bit of strength.

Makes sense, because with that trough rapidly digging down and approaching the area from the NW, this should be happening about now.
Quoting TigerFanOrl:
So since all the updates everywhere seem to be from this morning or this afternoon where is the spin, or attempt at a spin, supposed to be? Is it still there just above the Yucatan? Why does it seem like Accuweather and NHC sites seem like they are closed for the winter in the hurricane sections?


well with nothing out there named NHC is gonna update every 6hrs and they had one at 8:00 so the next one will be at 2:00 am
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The LLC is just on the center of the left side of that blob.

But TampaSpin, the more interesting feature is that little blob above and to the left of the main area of convection. It just suddenly percolated into existence in this last satellite image. And the image is so new that no one has really had a chance to comment on that, or to speculate on what it might mean.

My guess is that the atmosphere to the north of the system, which has been bone dry up until now, may be starting to moisten up a bit. This could allow the storm to regain a bit of strength.

Makes sense, because with that trough rapidly digging down and approaching the area from the NW, this should be happening about now.


Possibly......have you seen the RGB......i got 5 floaters up and running.......Speed up the Floaters and things kinda make more sense.
We got 3 different Spins going.........will be interesting to see which one takes over.
601. 7544
hmm looks like 95l is trying to play tricks on us nice blow up and dmax on the way could it do it and make a name tonight will tell the story but not much time left
Quoting 7544:
hmm looks like 95l is trying to play tricks on us nice blow up and dmax on the way could it do it and make a name tonight will tell the story but not much time left


what will the New percent be by NHC......either nothing or something big.........LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


what will the New percent be by NHC......either nothing or something big.........LOL


They will probably leave it alone till 8am

I still say the center is trying to reform around 25N and 87W..but its in the 850mb range and will take 12more hours to get to the surface
Quoting TampaSpin:


what will the New percent be by NHC......either nothing or something big.........LOL


95 did the exact same thing last night which amounted to what was observed today, zilch. Difference being that the blow up started much earlier tonight.
Quoting scottsvb:


They will probably leave it alone till 8am

I still say the center is trying to reform around 25N and 87W..but its in the 850mb range and will take 12more hours to get to the surface



Ya i see that spin you are referring too.....YOu just might be correct.
00Z GFS finally shows a system in the E Carib :-)
If you look at Ruskin radar.. you can see the LL cells moving NW out in the Gulf NW of Clearwater making me believe it's starting.
Quoting CaribBoy:
00Z GFS finally shows a system in the E Carib :-)


7 days out.. dont look past 5 days really..typically 3... look at 95L..we cant look past 12hrs
Is that big blob even going to make it to the Tampa bay area? or is it expected to just move into south florida?
Quoting tampahurricane:
Is that big blob even going to make it to the Tampa bay area? or is it expected to just move into south florida?


will i got one word for you 95L RIP


good night
Quoting tampahurricane:
Is that big blob even going to make it to the Tampa bay area? or is it expected to just move into south florida?

Umm, yes
Bam models have all moved South....makes sense
Ahh, what the heck, guess were getting more rain.
Nice looking blob.
Yeah I seen the models, just did not know if that blob would end up following the low pressure. So looks like a rough day ahead, might go out and do some storm chasing. What do you think the main threat will be in the Tampa Bay area. I know a lot of rain but what else should the pinellas area expect, im in st. pete.
Quoting tampahurricane:
Yeah I seen the models, just did not know if that blob would end up following the low pressure. So looks like a rough day ahead, might go out and do some storm chasing. What do you think the main threat will be in the Tampa Bay area. I know a lot of rain but what else should the pinellas area expect, im in st. pete.


still hard to say, but best guess a ton of rain and coastal flooding.........with some wind!
Been very heavy with rain in Key West. We have had up to 10inches since Saturday. More is on the way. Looks like this is going to be more of a South Florida than Tampa rain Maker.
Quoting Patrap:
I like the blog.

Less clutter, more info..




Fresca's go further as well.


Yep, gotta admit it's a lot better blog now. Especially with all those plus buttons, and you can actually see who likes you!

The definition of clutter is....: to run in disorder
and that's how it's run. Take it as you wish.

As far as info, any blogger can go to any site and copy and paste. Don't pretend this site is the know it all, and end to all weather knowledge.
Just got back from NY, had a great time. Now tracking what could be a TS by tomorrow, interesting. This sucker delayed my flight today.
Blog police? Needs to switch to Mountain Dew
Quoting FrankZapper:
Quoting Patrap:
"I like the blog.

Less clutter, more info..
Fresca's go further as well."


Stop posting all those inane radars and YER Fresca will hold out even longer! :)



NHC dropped the chances to 20% for the 2am update but say there are TS force winds within the system. Makes no sense! Sleep well!
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STRONGEST WINDS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Nite everyone
627. 7544
nite tampa it would be so funny if so fl wakes up with a ts watch lol thats what 95l looks like at this hour
Invest95L's_18Oct_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 17Oct_6amGMT and ending 18Oct_6amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the straightline connecting the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 13.8mph(22.3k/h) on a heading of 4.4degrees(N)

Copy&paste tzm, isj, snj, 22.0n88.0w-22.3n89.0w, 22.3n89.0w-21.6n89.2w, 21.6n89.2w-21.6n89.1w, 21.6n89.1w-22.8n89.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 18Oct_12amGMT
Crazy long range GFS for ya..
Quoting TampaSpin:
Bam models have all moved South....makes sense


Models are useless with this system. broad circulation center is about 300 miles plus across. Convection etc....is all east and SE of the circulation. Looking at a track is useless. I dont think this system did one unexpected move. Never looked like it would cross Florida as a classic tropical system. The models had pretty well predicted a broad circulation over or north of Yuc's N coast..in the gulf. THats what has happened.
when is this thing and it moisture start to take it north track to ne track
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
when is this thing and it moisture start to take it north track to ne track


Thats already began. Moisture is in the flow and is about to move over south florida and central florida. Broad low is moving NE slowly from S Gulf
Yep..There is a reason why the global models showed 95L as a continued weak system. 95L has Too broad of a LP to consolidate into something significant and 30-40kt wind shear didn't help. I think we see 1-2 more weak sheared storms and the season is done.
Quoting robert88:
Yep..There is a reason why the global models showed 95L as a continued weak system. 95L has Too broad of a LP to consolidate into something significant and 30-40kt wind shear didn't help. I think we see 1-2 more weak sheared storms and the season is done.


I agree, yet the stuff on here in the morning yesterday was odd...some talking about warnings will likely be issued, it was a TS, its gonna hit tampa etc. etc. The global models pretty much always reflected a very broad low with the energy being absorbed by the approaching front. Not so much a coc path accross the coast..
Quoting reedzone:
Just got back from NY, had a great time. Now tracking what could be a TS by tomorrow, interesting. This sucker delayed my flight today.


?? Serious ?? Tropical storm 45knts shear??
Not much of an MJO this season.
Just stopped raining here in Boca. Since I woke up about 20 minutes, the rain has been nice and soaking (the kind of rain I like) without thunder and with calm winds. But it looks as though towards tonight it could get really nasty, we'll have to see.
Caribbean about to shut down for business?

Quoting hurricaneben:
Just stopped raining here in Boca. Since I woke up about 20 minutes, the rain has been nice and soaking (the kind of rain I like) without thunder and with calm winds. But it looks as though towards tonight it could get really nasty, we'll have to see.


System appears rather impressive on Sat. I am in LHP. Think you are right, tonight may be pretty active with squally weather.
Quite in here this morning.......was much more active yesterday this early.
FL is going to get some nasty weather.
643. MahFL
"THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE AREA-WIDE. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE
AS WELL AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED."

Thats the forcast discusion from JAX.

Intensifying eh....?

here comes the front
Quoting robert88:
FL is going to get some nasty weather.


Beginning to wonder how much we get out of this in the Tampa area. Our rain chances for yesterday was 70% and 80% overnight and the rain shield is no closer than it was 24hours ago. To me is looks as if the rain is moving more East than North. I think we'll get something here but nothing nearly as much as was forecast.
not even one classified system out of this mojo
647. MahFL
The MJO is like the Jags MJD....fizzled and a spent force.....lol.
Quoting islander101010:
not even one classified system out of this mojo


Very surprised. The experts were saying that this was one of the highest levels of mjo that they had seen. I guess the East Pacific robbed all of the energy. They got 2 storms and a depression.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Very surprised. The experts were saying that this was one of the highest levels of mjo that they had seen. I guess the East Pacific robbed all of the energy. They got 2 storms and a depression.


Still a small window for this to get into something classified according to Crown WX.

There are NW winds from a ship at 21.5N 85.5W trying to get underneath the big convection...

But the clock is ticking.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Beginning to wonder how much we get out of this in the Tampa area. Our rain chances for yesterday was 70% and 80% overnight and the rain shield is no closer than it was 24hours ago. To me is looks as if the rain is moving more East than North. I think we'll get something here but nothing nearly as much as was forecast.
I S WAQS SAYING EXACTLY THAT LAST NIGHT..... doesnt look like east central florida will be bad the entire rain and convection ball is going acrosss south florida and not gonna be to bad in central and north florida
Quoting whepton3:


Still a small window for this to get into something classified according to Crown WX.

There are NW winds from a ship at 21.5N 85.5W trying to get underneath the big convection...

But the clock is ticking.


Ain't happenin...
Quoting luvtogolf:


Very surprised. The experts were saying that this was one of the highest levels of mjo that they had seen. I guess the East Pacific robbed all of the energy. They got 2 storms and a depression.
doesnt surprise me everything they have been saying all season hasnt happened


Hi, good morning. This shortwave loop shows an interesting view of 95L and why it's not classified.
LinkSwLoop

Nonetheless, from Tampa to New Smyrna Beach rain forecast is 100% today; Ft. Myers is at 100%; Gainesville at 100%; Naples is somewhere around 70-80% chance.
... High surf advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 8 PM
EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has issued a
high surf advisory... which is in effect from 10 am this morning
to 8 PM EDT this evening.

A low pressure system will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
today. Winds will increase over the waters to 20 to 30 mph which will
cause hazardous surf to develop along the coast today. The strong
winds will also cause water to pile up over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico with tides running 1 to 3 feet above astronomical values
today and tonight.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high surf advisory is issued when dangerous water action is
expected along the coast. This includes rough surf... large
breaking waves... rip currents... and strong undertow.

Beach goers are urged to heed lifeguard warnings.


It wouldn't surprise me if some Tornado Watches were put up later.
Good morning.

This morning's San Juan AFD long range continues to talk about maybe a mischief near PR?

THE 17/18Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS MORE FAVORABLE TO THE PROSPECT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALBEIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TO
BRING WINDS OR RAIN TO THE AREA...BUT THE 18/00Z RUN LEAVES ONLY A
WEAK LOW THAT CROSSES THE WESTERN EDGE OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS
WOULD BRING MORE SHOWERS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE
LATTER SITUATION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS A FIXTURE OF
THE ATLANTIC AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CUT-OFF LOWS THAT HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED MUCH TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY.
Think we may see some squally weather early, but the worst should come later today.



95L is looking elephant-like.

LinkLoop
pouch 40 in the ne gulf might have a strong front pretty soon
All Invest 95L needs is a closed LLC under that convection, and we have a tropical storm...and there is a small window...but 95L will most likely stay just 95L.

Down to 10%
Quoting CANTTAKEITANYMORE:
doesnt surprise me everything they have been saying all season hasnt happened


I pointed that out over a week ago. Going by the global models the Pacific would most likely steal the thunder from the Caribbean during the MJO pulse and the season comes to a quick end. Looks like that is a very good possibility now.
Goodmorning, I dont ever say never, but it looks like the possibility of 95L ever developing is really close to never. Also the GFS and EURO show a whole lot of nothing for the next 10 days. Time will tell.
95L is more disorganized than ever....just a stretched out sheared mess like the majority of systems this 2011 season.


Some strong winds SW Of Jamaica.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, I dont ever say never, but it looks like the possibility of 95L ever developing is really close to never. Also the GFS and EURO show a whole lot of nothing for the next 10 days. Time will tell.


Chances are the season is over. You can't rule out a couple of weak storms here on out...but hurricanes are done with imo. The Caribbean will go back to being very stable again here shortly and the Pacific will probably steal a lot of the mojo from the Atlantic basin.
I think 95L might now be considered a TD or TS , I think it has finally a closed circulation around 23/85, that swirl N of the Yucatan in my opinion was never associated with 95L and was only the remnant low of Jova or Td#12.just my opinion of course.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think 95L might now be considered a TD or TS , I think it has finally a closed circulation around 23/85, that swirl N of the Yucatan in my opinion was never associated with 95L and was only the remnant low of Jova or Td#12.just my opinion of course.


No evidence on radar of that
669. DDR
The gfs has been showing an area of disturbed weather just north of south america near the windwards,could this be another Tomas?hope not!
Quoting barotropic:


No evidence on radar of that


The location of that 15 mph WSW/SW wind dead center just North of the Yucatan channel would suggest a closed circulation at around 23/85
This season HAS been the year of Wind shear and low Vertical Instability. Regardless, a few storms have managed to take advantage of the conditions and become strong systems (Irene, Katia, Ophelia).
673. SLU
Two "tropical storms" for Florida in about one week.

Since all this started, Naples has received 1.07"--leaving us just under 18" below normal for the year--while Fort Myers has received 0.75", and Key West has seen an official 10.36". Much more is on the way, of course.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Beginning to wonder how much we get out of this in the Tampa area. Our rain chances for yesterday was 70% and 80% overnight and the rain shield is no closer than it was 24hours ago. To me is looks as if the rain is moving more East than North. I think we'll get something here but nothing nearly as much as was forecast.
We will still get a lot of nasty weather from this system... All of that rain over South Florida is just from the sheared tops of the storms out over the Gulf that will eventually be right over us after the front scoops everything up and shunts it towards the coast.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since all this started, Naples has received 1.07"--leaving us just under 18" below normal for the year--while Fort Myers has received 0.75", and Key West has seen an official 10.36". Much more is on the way, of course.


Get your canoe ready?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This season HAS been the year of Wind shear and low Vertical Instability. Regardless, a few storms have managed to take advantage of the conditions and become strong systems (Irene, Katia, Ophelia).


I'd say this season has been one of the most interesting and memorable from a meteorological perspective of the last twenty five years.
Anyone have any experience and resources to track a cold front? Trying to get a near live idea where the cold front is in Louisiana coming offshore into the GOM.
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Anyone have any experience and resources to track a cold front? Trying to get a near live idea where the cold front is in Louisiana coming offshore into the GOM.
Are you interested in tracking the squall line or the front specifically?

If you want to see where the squall line is, use visible satellite or a radar out of LA.

If you want to see where the front is, use the wundermap on this site and turn on the temp and wind option. Look for the wind shift that occurs behind the front.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* significant weather advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County

* until 845 am EDT

* at 813 am EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong shower over Boynton Beach... and moving north at 15
mph. Funnel clouds are possible.

* The shower will affect...
Boynton Beach...
Lake Worth...
Greenacres City...
and surrounding communities.

Radar shows rotation within this strong shower... and this shower
is developing in an environment favorable for funnel clouds and
possible tornadoes.

Residents near the path of should remain on the alert for additional
statements and possible warnings.
681. MahFL
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Anyone have any experience and resources to track a cold front? Trying to get a near live idea where the cold front is in Louisiana coming offshore into the GOM.





Or you could go outside and watch it pass.....
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Are you interested in tracking the squall line or the front specifically?

If you want to see where the squall line is, use visible satellite or a radar out of LA.

If you want to see where the front is, use the wundermap on this site and turn on the temp and wind option. Look for the wind shift that occurs behind the front.


Wondermap does the trick, thank you!
Miami NWS Discussion

STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
...BECOMING WINDY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...
Quoting Cotillion:


Get your canoe ready?



I'd say this season has been one of the most interesting and memorable from a meteorological perspective of the last twenty five years.

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.
687. 7544
morning all looks like our big blob wants to go east today notice the added strong blow up of the conection to the west now forming could this increase the expected rain fall for south fla or will it ripped apart befor it crosses the state tia
Quoting ITCZmike:

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.


What on earth are you talking about? Cotillion is invariably courteous to everyone - what provoked this rude attack on him?
Tornado Warning cancelled for Palm Beach County.
Quoting SLU:
Two "tropical storms" for Florida in about one week.

definitely tropical so humid right now everything on the porch is slightly wet even though the two systems thankfully did not develop something to remember
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like our big blob wants to go east today notice the added strong blow up of the conection to the west now forming could this increase the expected rain fall for south fla or will it ripped apart befor it crosses the state tia
Severe thunderstorms can be expected state-wide this afternoon, and especially in west central Florida depending on how much progress the gulf low makes before meeting with the jet stream.
post # 684 good job being added to my iggy list. your comment to cotillion was rude and uncalled for. NOWHERE idd he meantion AGW. nor did he state this has never happened before. he just said that it was one of the most interesting weather years in a long time. and with the flooding, the earlier tornado outbreaks, the above average hurricane season, and widespread droughts, i have to agree with him
693. MahFL
Er that vortex is back !

visible shows a hot tower like convection about 100miles west of kw???,looks like a mlv moving nne,could be some nastiee if it comes ashore imo,maybe 50mph+ winds and waterspoyt or tornado
they have had an outbreak of flu in latin america just recent wonder if there will be a virus outbreak after the system leaves florida
Quoting MahFL:
Er that vortex is back !

You were the first to find that yesterday too!
Quoting ITCZmike:

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.


congrats, made my list.

Tornado warning that was canceled had a bigtime hook to it right at Atlantis...

Just shows what today might hold.
698. MahFL
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You were the first to find that yesterday too!


I was pretty sure it had dissapated.
Hello good morning!! don't understand why people are talking about nasty bad weather for North Florida?,all the nasty bad weather as shown in the radar presentation is heading East toward South Florida & the Keys.The low North of the Yucatan Peninsula is insignificant,don't have any convetion!!.
Quoting ITCZmike:

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.


And good morning to you too!

I'm pretty sure I made no reference to climate change. Anyone who has ever followed my posts over the years know that I take a neutral stance to that topic.
701. SLU
Quoting MahFL:
Er that vortex is back !



If only it would team up with the convection we'd have a tropical storm today.
The "vortexl/low" was always there. Its just easier to see now that the sun is shining down on it.

Quoting SLU:


If only it would team up with the convection we'd have a tropical storm today.


you sound dissapointed?
So far, 2.20" of rain in Boynton Beach with lots of heavy rain moving northward from Broward County.
Heaviest rain still well offshore, but increasing in strength over S.W. Fl.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello good morning!! don't understand why people are talking about nasty bad weather for North Florida?,all the nasty bad weather as shown in the radar presentation is heading East toward South Florida & the Keys.The low North of the Yucatan Peninsula is insignificant,don't have any convetion!!.
The front that is currently sweeping into louisiana will provide the rest of the state with severe weather.
707. eddye
when is the bad weather coming 2 jacksonville and ow cold is it supposed too get
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The front that is currently sweeping into louisiana will provide the rest of the state with severe weather.
Thank you,but the weather that the front coming down it's not related to this big blog that we have to our West moving toward South Florida correct?,wondering if this big blog will cross South Florida tonite or tomorrow??, a lot of very nasty weather with this system.
baro low forming ahead of the frontbmid center gom,can be seen on vis loop,looks like everything,moisture shield,llc and baro low moving to the east as tge front is already off tx shorline,another nada for my area,alot of fluff as usual,i expect 1-2 inches here in srq maybe winds around 25-30 mph when the prefrontal trough comes thru ,i doubt anyting doubious for my area, maybe a isolated tornado in central fl
The rainfall will be spreading northward across Fl as the day goes on. The Low is finally moving to the N.E. and it is pulling the moisture north with it.

Heavy rain should be moving into the Tampa area later on this morning.
711. MahFL
Actually according to JAX NWS a warm front moving north is the focus of storms right now....


"MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT"

It's a complicated situation, as the low is supposed to come over tonight too.


Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you,but the weather that the front coming down it's not related to this big blog that we have to our West moving toward South Florida correct?,wondering if this big blog will cross South Florida tonite or tomorrow??, a lot of very nasty weather with this system.


As mentioned, the "big blob" will be speading northward throughout the day.
You can already see rain starting to form in the northeast GOM and rain is about to start moving into the Tampa region.
Expect heavy rain to form north of that area (over Northern Fl.) later this afternoon.
But the main focus of the rain this afternoon should be over central Fl (Tampa area) with 2"-4" expected.
at least we got some tropical excitement this year even if it is an invest.
714. MahFL
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you,but the weather that the front coming down it's not related to this big blog that we have to our West moving toward South Florida correct?,wondering if this big blog will cross South Florida tonite or tomorrow??, a lot of very nasty weather with this system.


You mean blob not blog right ?
715. MahFL
I would think the term "very nasty" is a bit too harsh, just regular thunderstorms Florida gets all the time.
Yeah...lots of rain in the Boynton / Lake Worth area this morning. Which is ironic since the nontropical / tropical whatchamacallit from last weekend dropped 0.01 inch of rain on us.

My son is very disappointed that his football practice will be canceled, since the field is a muddy swamp. I kinda understand...what 7 year old wouldn't want to play football in this!!

Just called out from work.......Im gonna stay in bed all day and watch 95 go over my house and then Im gonna eat mcdonalds for dinner and go back to bed
Big picture showing rain speading northward.
Quoting ITCZmike:
Blah, blah, blah...

Okay, who kicked the rotting log? ;-)

Anyway: NEW BLOG ENTRY
Invest95L's_18Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 17Oct_12pmGMT and ending 18Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the straightline connecting the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 16.2mph(26k/h) on a heading of 31.4degrees(NNE)
(33.75degrees is midway between NNE and NE)

Copy&paste tzm, isj, lcl, 22.3n89.0w-21.6n89.2w, 21.6n89.2w-21.6n89.1w, 21.6n89.1w-22.8n89.0w, 22.8n89.0w-24.0n88.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 18Oct_6amGMT
Quoting MahFL:


You mean blob not blog right ?
Sorry for the typo yes I mean blob.