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94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2012

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.

Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.

Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
I disagree Levi's a great forecaster.I you cant get everything right you know! Debby just formed to too far north and thats why the outcome didn't come to pass!!


It's going into the Caribbean as the GFS and Euro are saying. I wouldn't bash the GFS especailly now after 3 runs it has had a FL landfall with 94L. Seems very reasonable to me since 94L is struggling to get it's act together. It's missing the window to go north of the islands right now.
3002. LargoFl
when and IF 94 developes..and thats an IF..then the models should fall in line with a much better track..there IS the chance..this does NOT delvelope and goes thru the caribbean as a strong wave or into the gulf as a strong wave or a depression huh..we'll see.....but florida..prepare..JUST in case..its 5 days away at least
3003. Matt74
Man i see the florida casters are out this morning. Still don't even have a storm yet and the models have been all over the place and will continue to be untill we actually get a storm
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Keep in mind the GFS isn't showing that strong of a storm impacting FL, it would only be a TS if this panned out:



Rain would be a big problem.
I don't agree with you..it may be stronger than you think.
Quoting reedzone:
94L will not recurve out to sea, but it may ride up the East Coast or perhaps go into the GOM... The models look extremely identical to Irenes before she was a storm. If it tracks north of the islands, we will have a Hurricane, if it tracks over the islands, a Tropical Storm.


reminds me of TS FAY which stayed weak all the way to PR then developed quick as it was crossing PR and then into the DR.

3006. txwcc
Quoting Matt74:
Man i see the florida casters are out this morning. Still don't even have a storm yet and the models have been all over the place and will continue to be untill we actually get a storm


Really?
Quoting LargoFl:
when and IF 94 developes..and thats an IF..then the models should fall in line with a much better track..there IS the chance..this does NOT delvelope and goes thru the caribbean as a strong wave or into the gulf as a strong wave or a depression huh..we'll see.....but florida..prepare..JUST in case..its 5 days away at least


The cone of doom is extending from panama to Portugal.
Quoting Tazmanian:



Levi's forcast track is too far N wish none of the mode runs take it he needs too chage it too the S

Talking about his thoughts on the previous storms.I know debby's forecast didn't work but it happens.No one is right you know!
It is pouring again in Panama City. A tropical storm in this area would be disastrous right now with flooding. The ground is completely saturated from darn near non stop rain for the past two months. We had two days of sunshine and now another week of rain. UGH.
Quoting MahFL:


Yes but the odds were pretty low, like 2 % or something.
Lower than that, even: 0.2%, or 1-in-500...
3012. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
602 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. ONE OR TWO
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. A LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
ORLANDO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS NEAR THE
COAST.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF STORMS THAT
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING.



almost like we HAVE been getting a tropical storm all week long huh
Wow I'm not talking about his track about 94L.I'm talking about what happen in the past storms this season!
3014. LargoFl
Quoting Kristina40:
It is pouring again in Panama City. A tropical storm in this area would be disastrous right now with flooding. The ground is completely saturated from darn near non stop rain for the past two months. We had two days of sunshine and now another week of rain. UGH.
yes stay safe up there, watch for flooded roadways
3016. txwcc
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Wow I'm not talking about his track about 94L.I'm talking about what happen in the past storms this season!

Okay!
The thing that irks me is Levi32 comes on here and doesn't plus not one comment from any other blogger on this blog but then everybody is supposed to respect his forecast. I listen to all people's opinions and enjoy listening to them but this guy thinks he's head honcho so much that no one here gets plussed by a great post which there are many on here from many "Great" bloggers.
3018. MahFL
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Worth repeating that we will not have a handle on where 94L will end up, US wise if that is the case, until it gets to the vicinity of the Northern Antilles and the NHC can get a handle on the 3-day track from there.


The 5 day tracks are pretty good too.
What the...

The GFS wants to try to name one of those surface lows along the front exiting the East coast.

It's also spamming all sorts of tropical lows for the next several days.





Does anyone have a link to that hilarious 2012 graphic with all the named storms in the basin at the same time?
3020. LargoFl
Quoting weatherh98:


The cone of doom is extending from panama to Portugal.
LOL..just about
3021. txwcc
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The thing that irks me is Levi32 comes on here and doesn't plus not one comment from any other blogger on this blog but then everybody is supposed to respect his forecast. I listen to all people's opinions and enjoy listening to them but this guy thinks he's head honcho so much that no one here gets plussed by a great post which there are many on here from many "Great" bloggers.


Great point.
One last thought before I go...We have Gordon,and 2 other invests other than 94L lol! Peace out for now!
3023. txwcc
Quoting RTSplayer:
What the...

The GFS wants to try to name one of those surface lows along the front exiting the East coast.

It's also spamming all sorts of tropical lows for the next several days.



We're heading into the peak of the season. That's to be expected.
Quoting RTSplayer:
According to Buoy 41041, the CoC must have already passed 46W...

Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.175N 45.998W
Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2012 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 7.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and rising
Air Temperature: 75.6 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 81.3 F


Sattelite says NE of there.

Quoting floridaboy14:
GFS once again being inconsistent. BAM models are north of the islands into florida and the ukment is just north of the islands. lots of inconsistency here


BAMD is in the caribbean.


according to the steering map, it show the reason why 94L got pulled a bit northward, (small/slight weakness) but it also show what I am expecting which is a turn to the WSW, (building high to the WNW-NW)

Quoting Neapolitan:
Lower than that, even: 0.2%, or 1-in-500...


Talk about ironey huh. Didn't this happen the last time we had the RNC in Lousiana in 2008? Gustav?
WOW 174HR

192HR
3027. Matt74
Quoting txwcc:


Really?
really?
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
One last thought before I go...We have Gordon,and 2 other invests other than 94L lol! Peace out for now!




i think we no that
3029. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:
What the...

The GFS wants to try to name one of those surface lows along the front exiting the East coast.

It's also spamming all sorts of tropical lows for the next several days.

well there is a purple watch area up along the south east coastline.....boy that track up the west coast of florida is a bad one..a lil to the right near tampa and up the bay it comes....thats the worst case for a storm to come in here
Imagine if 95L steal the name Isaac of 94L people in here would have a bad time...
Quoting Tazmanian:
..big.surf.this.winter.n.shore.hi
Jeff Masters may have to increase the odds of a Hurricane (Issac) striking Tampa during the Republican National Convention next week. How ironic after his blog last week.
Well today I start as a volunteer at me son's school with the pre-schoolers.They have another week of summer break left.I'm going in to help the teacher get the room set up and help the parents who are just getting use to this school thing.Later folks good day to you.
Quoting allancalderini:
Imagine if 95L steal the name Isaac of 94L people in here would have a bad time...



i was this about too say some in lol
Quoting allancalderini:
Imagine if 95L steal the name Isaac of 94L people in here would have a bad time...
rookies
Quoting Tazmanian:




i think we no that

I said it cause u all keep talking about 94L and not 95L and 96L! 95l is much closer to home than 94L right now!Although could be a threat to the US late next week!
3037. txwcc
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well today I start as a volunteer at me son's school with the pre-schoolers.They have another week of summer break left.I'm going in to help the teacher get the room set up and help the parents who are just getting use to this school thing.Later folks good day to you.


Good for you. A very nice thing you are doing. Good luck today and have fun.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

I said it cause u all keep talking about 94L and not 95L and 96L! 95l is much closer to home than 94L right now!Although could be a threat to the US late next week!




hmmmm 94L and 95L is cloer too home then 96L is
convection that popped on 94L's LLCOC is contiuning to build

LLCOC stoped its WNW-N of due W movement now moving true W
3040. txwcc
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

I said it cause u all keep talking about 94L and not 95L and 96L! 95l is much closer to home than 94L right now!Although could be a threat to the US late next week!


Chill. Sorry that Hermine never made it up your way but don't take it out on the others forecasting 94L.

Relax.
The storm hasn't even formed yet. There is no telling where 94L will ultimately go. The 3 day rule applies in this situation; that is, I would start paying attention 3 days prior to expected impact per the models.
3042. SLU
20/1145 UTC 37.7N 23.9W T2.0/3.0 GORDON -- Atlantic
20/1145 UTC 10.4N 25.4W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic
20/1145 UTC 15.7N 44.8W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

Qudos to the EURO. If the GFS solution over the last few days panned out, 94L should have been a strong TS by the end of today ....
3043. ncstorm
Look at the SE coast..lows.lows..lows...

3044. SLU
20/1145 UTC 23.2N 97.1W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

95L might even get the dreaded "I" name before it.
Did it ever occur to you guys that Floyd developed further west then 94L is right now?? Yet it still became a monster. If 94L tracks north of the islands, we will have a dangerous storm heading to the USA.

3046. txwcc
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
The storm hasn't even formed yet. There is no telling where 94L will ultimately go. The 3 day rule applies in this situation; that is, I would start paying attention 3 days prior to expected impact per the models.

Gee, I never thought of that one...
3047. txwcc
Quoting reedzone:
Did it ever occur to you guys that Floyd developed further west then 94L is right now?? Yet it still became a monster. If 94L tracks north of the islands, we will have a dangerous storm heading to the USA.



Lemme guess, your from NY?


94L looks... Terrible, to say the least.
Quoting txwcc:


Chill. Sorry that Hermine never made it up your way but don't take it out on the others forecasting 94L.

Relax.

??
If your talking 2010 then its a no! Her center came over us.
Quoting SLU:
20/1145 UTC 23.2N 97.1W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

95L might even get the dreaded "I" name before it.



i think the blog may get mad at 95L if it did that lol but hey thats the way the weather works
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

I said it cause u all keep talking about 94L and not 95L and 96L! 95l is much closer to home than 94L right now!Although could be a threat to the US late next week!


As long as 95l stays to the west and hugs the coast it won't do anything other than pump some beneficial rain into Texas.

If it somehow took a NE or ENE track across the center of the Gulf, then it would be really dangerous.


Right now the GFS and half the other models say it's going to turn back west, and the models that disagree hug the coast, so it shouldn't be too big of a concern.
3052. ncstorm
Quoting SLU:
20/1145 UTC 23.2N 97.1W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

95L might even get the dreaded "I" name before it.

Yep,95L looks way better organized than 94L and 96L!
Quoting MahFL:


The 5 day tracks are pretty good too.


They are definitely getting better but you need an actual storm or hurricane first in order to properly initiate the data collection for the model runs.
3055. txwcc
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

??
If your talking 2010 then its a no! Her center came over us.


I meant Helene.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


94L looks... Terrible, to say the least.

It just lacks convection. Its center is well defined and closed.

Look for convection to fire around 48W.
3057. SLU
The large circulation we saw last night might no longer be closed.
3058. WxLogic
SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Yep,95L looks way better organized than 94L and 95L!



its 96L you said 95L two times



boy you are so mixed up this AM
Quoting WxGeekVA:


94L looks... Terrible, to say the least.
its got a great spin but the dry air wont let it develop thunderstorm activity. same thing with irene though. was a naked swirl at one point due to the saharan air mass north of it. once it got past 50W, it became a tropical storm
3061. txwcc
Here in Barbados, I don't expect the real action at least for a day.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The thing that irks me is Levi32 comes on here and doesn't plus not one comment from any other blogger on this blog but then everybody is supposed to respect his forecast. I listen to all people's opinions and enjoy listening to them but this guy thinks he's head honcho so much that no one here gets plussed by a great post which there are many on here from many "Great" bloggers.

Hold and let me find some Cheese for your Wine!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys, I can clearly see the LLCOC moving N of due W-WNW, looking at steering it makes sense, there is a small weakness N of it. however we should see WSW track soon, as it stops getting the slight pull from the weakness.



Oh please... you said it last night.
Quoting txwcc:


Lemme guess, your from NY?


I'm originally from NY, but live in Florida... This storm is not going to recurve out to sea. Either the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Right now, i'm siding with Levi on this one and saying East Coast because the storm is further north and should get into a pattern that is known for curving storms up the coastline.
Quoting Tazmanian:



its 96L you said 95L two times



boy you are so mixed up this AM

fixed it lol
3067. txwcc
Quoting reedzone:


I'm originally from NY, but live in Florida... This storm is not going to recurve out to sea. Either the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Right now, i'm siding with Levi on this one and saying East Coast because the storm is further north and should get into a pattern that is known for curving storms up the coastline.


I hear you, Bud. I'm not ruling out that scenario whatsoever. In fact, I'm tending to think that 94L has a much better chance now of moving north of the islands and north of PR before moving NW.
3068. txwcc
Quoting scooster67:

Hold and let me find some Cheese for your Wine!


Bunker?

LOL
Quoting Matt74:
Man i see the florida casters are out this morning. Still don't even have a storm yet and the models have been all over the place and will continue to be untill we actually get a storm

As they well should be. Storm or no storm. If the models were trending towards TX, they would be out in forces as well. It's the nature of the blog.
SO HH are going into 95L at 4:30 today
Quoting WxLogic:
SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Two Questions today:
1. Will Levi change his forecast with 94L crossing PR as a TS and turning NW at 70-75 west, bypassing the Florida peninsula and threatening the East Coast?
2. Where is KMAN when we need him --LOL.
3072. hydrus
Quoting WxGeekVA:


94L looks... Terrible, to say the least.
Looks like it wuz hit with a fly swatter. We will still have to watch this guy, especially when it reaches of 65 west. This is the 4th run I have seen that takes it close or into Florida.
AL, 94, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 156N, 448W, 25, 1010, DB
Quoting txwcc:


I meant Helene.

Oh lol yea but I got my eye on 95L now!
Quoting allancalderini:
Imagine if 95L steal the name Isaac of 94L people in here would have a bad time...


Lol. Don't look Washi!! I'll be glad when they fly into it today.
Quoting SLU:
20/1145 UTC 37.7N 23.9W T2.0/3.0 GORDON -- Atlantic
20/1145 UTC 10.4N 25.4W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic
20/1145 UTC 15.7N 44.8W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

Qudos to the EURO. If the GFS solution over the last few days panned out, 94L should have been a strong TS by the end of today ....


The Euro doesn't get any praise either, it was also saying this would have been approaching cane status today. The GFS and Euro stopped showing that at the same time. They both failed with this system.
If 94 does form and curves either near cuba or even a lot sooner, it will create a nice weak path for 95 to follow.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SO HH are going into 95L at 4:30 today

Actually its 11:30 am Central time(12:30 pm east)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The Euro doesn't get any praise either, it was also saying this would have been approaching cane status today. The GFS and Euro stopped showing that at the same time. They both failed with this system.




so what mode run we ues now?
8AM now going up 100KT or 115MPH
3081. txwcc
Allan, that would be absolutely hysterical. I hope 95L beats out that pathetic looking system we all have our eyes fixated on...
Quoting Clearwater1:
If 94 does form and curves either near cuba or even a lot sooner, it will create a nice weak path for 95 to follow.



94L is not going out too sea
ok thx!:)
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Actually its 11:30 am Central time(12:30 pm east)
Quoting Tazmanian:




so what mode run we ues now?


I believe the UKMET/CMC/HWRF combo seem to have the better handle on this storm IMO.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The Euro doesn't get any praise either, it was also saying this would have been approaching cane status today. The GFS and Euro stopped showing that at the same time. They both failed with this system.


I agree and then disagree. At the time it appeared 94L would be named already but both models have been consistant in bringing 94L into the Caribbean whether it's named or not the track has been nailed so far from the both the Euro and GFS.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM now going up 100KT or 115MPH


Well if it tracks north of the islands, that's a reasonable and good possibility.
Ahhhh. Should be a lot more quiet here between 8 and 3pm with the FL kiddies back in school.
Quoting Tazmanian:




so what mode run we ues now?


I would assume either dart and board, or the cerebellum one.

95L seems the dark horse in this, just my opinion.
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is not going out too sea
unless it becomes strong hurricane right away like the NOGAPS and CMC are showing
3091. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The Euro doesn't get any praise either, it was also saying this would have been approaching cane status today. The GFS and Euro stopped showing that at the same time. They both failed with this system.


Over the last 2 - 3 days the EURO showed little to no development while the GFS was showing as much as a strong hurricane south of PR at various stages.
Good Morning Everyone!

Positives:

Looks like 94L has an improved low level structure this morning to add to significant 850/700 mb vorticity.

Shear is quite low, as evidenced by no tilting of the convection that recently fired near the center.

CIMSS shows an anti-cyclone overhead and decreasing shear in the path of 94L.

There is some modest surface convergence, and the disturbance should see SSTs slowly rise over the next 36 hours, particularly west of the 55W.

Dust appears to be mixed out of inflow on the eastern/southern side of 94L as the brown coloring has been replaced with a bluer, moister color on the RGB loop.

Negatives:

Fast speed makes it tougher to close off circulation.

Still relatively stable environment, but should improve with increasing SSTs.

Could be island interaction down the road, and increased shear depending on track.
ya lol but i will not go a way lol
Quoting StormHype:
Ahhhh. Should be a lot more quiet here between 8 and 3pm with the FL kiddies back in school.
3094. txwcc
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree and then disagree. At the time it appeared 94L would be named already but both models have been consistant in bringing 94L into the Caribbean whether it's named or not the track has been nailed so far from the both the Euro and GFS.



Agreed. Track is what is important right now. Far more important than intensity.

GFS has been spot on so far.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM now going up 100KT or 115MPH

A 100 knot hurricane is not going through the Caribbean.
Quoting floridaboy14:
unless it becomes strong hurricane right away like the NOGAPS and CMC are showing


Nope, still won't recurve out to sea.. probably an East Coast runner if it gets really strong fast.
3097. txwcc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 100 knot hurricane is not going through the Caribbean.


Never isn't an option in forecasting. You should know that.

At this stage of the game, anything can happen.
Quoting SLU:


Over the last 2 - 3 days the EURO showed little to no development while the GFS was showing as much as a strong hurricane south of PR at various stages.


No it wasn't. The GFS dropped it about 12 hours after the Euro did.
Quoting txwcc:


Never isn't an option in forecasting. You should know that.

At this stage of the game, anything can happen.

A 100 knot hurricane has less than a 1% chance of going through the Central Caribbean.
My forecast now is continued slow improvement the remainder of the day. Increasing convection overnight into tomorrow should allow for TS Isaac to be named (skip TD as pressure gradient force between strong high to north and system will easily have winds 40mph ).

I see a path similar to BAMM to be reasonable, though a further south path through Puerto Rico and northern half of the Dominican Republic/Haiti also seems plausible.

Not confident at all in intensity beyond 2-3 days, but US interest from the Keys to the Northeast should keep an eye on the system, though east coast Florida seems most likely to me at this point.
Quoting reedzone:


Nope, still won't recurve out to sea.. probably an East Coast runner if it gets really strong fast.
the ukmet has it just barely north of the islands. i like that track as of now. UKMET has been very consistent showing it just north of the islands. props to it. Euro has been horrible all season with intensity same with the GFS. im leaning towards an east coast landfall at the moment
Quoting LargoFl:
well there is a purple watch area up along the south east coastline.....boy that track up the west coast of florida is a bad one..a lil to the right near tampa and up the bay it comes....thats the worst case for a storm to come in here


True Largo.....and with the RNC in town what a nightmare evacuation would be. That said..anytime they start talking Tampa this far out we seem to skate by with nothing...fingers crossed.
Alright now I'm going to be stepping away from the blog for a bit.Be back in a few hrs! Have a great everyone!!
Quoting txwcc:


Agreed. Track is what is important right now. Far more important than intensity.

GFS has been spot on so far.


What will be funny is that run after run will show 94L going near or over FL but then everyone will still bash the GFS. Other than the 12Z run of the GFS it has show a storm either crossing or riding up FL 4 out of the last 5 runs. Further more the Euro brings 94L NE across S FL similar to Fay in 08.
3105. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
meanwhile that lil wave below cuba right now looks like its firing up just a lil huh..
We’ve all heard of the popular geoTech book titled “How to Lie With Maps“… well, it seems there’s a real-life scenario playing out in B.C, Canada involving the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline project and the effort of planners to manipulate and/or deceive the public by “Lying” with maps. Note, I discovered this via a Canadian academic discussion list accusing the company of this practice.

The project would send bitumen by pipeline from Alberta’s oilsands to Kitimat, where it would be loaded onto tankers for export to Asia.

Enbridge has developed a beautiful 3D fly-over video that shows some awesome 3D imagery along a proposed route for this mega project. The problem though is that in one particularly sensitive area of Douglas Channel (See Google map) along the coast the maps/imagery have conveniently been generalized and islands (about 1,000 square KM) that dot the coast have been removed – this makes the proposed route appear much safer that what is the reality. Check out the impressive video of the proposed pipeline route HERE. A graphic showing the actual coastline is shown below (Source: Eaves.ca). An amazing map story and a big plus for 3D visualization, however, this could be a PR nightmare for Enbridge!

3107. txwcc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 100 knot hurricane has less than a 1% chance of going through the Central Caribbean.


And the odds of Tampa getting hit next week are 0.2%, or 1-in-500. Anything can happen, Bud.
Here's the deal people..

1. 94L develops and tracks north of the islands, becoming a Hurricane that threatens the East Coast

2. 94L stays weak, develops slower and heads west into the Caribbean, tracks over the islands and stays a Tropical Storm with a landfall in Florida.

3. 94L never develops and runs into Mexico.. (not likely)
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
3110. LargoFl
Quoting Greenizz:


True Largo.....and with the RNC in town what a nightmare evacuation would be. That said..anytime they start talking Tampa this far out we seem to skate by with nothing...fingers crossed.
yes always remember..hurricanes do NOT..come here lol..our shields work just fine
3112. txwcc
Quoting RitaEvac:
We%u2019ve all heard of the popular geoTech book titled %u201CHow to Lie With Maps%u201C%u2026 well, it seems there%u2019s a real-life scenario playing out in B.C, Canada involving the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline project and the effort of planners to manipulate and/or deceive the public by %u201CLying%u201D with maps. Note, I discovered this via a Canadian academic discussion list accusing the company of this practice.

The project would send bitumen by pipeline from Alberta%u2019s oilsands to Kitimat, where it would be loaded onto tankers for export to Asia.

Enbridge has developed a beautiful 3D fly-over video that shows some awesome 3D imagery along a proposed route for this mega project. The problem though is that in one particularly sensitive area of Douglas Channel (See Google map) along the coast the maps/imagery have conveniently been generalized and islands (about 1,000 square KM) that dot the coast have been removed %u2013 this makes the proposed route appear much safer that what is the reality. Check out the impressive video of the proposed pipeline route HERE. A graphic showing the actual coastline is shown below (Source: Eaves.ca). An amazing map story and a big plus for 3D visualization, however, this could be a PR nightmare for Enbridge!



I almost wish we can have another 12Z GFS "DOOM for Houston" run you can salivate on so you can cease posting this nonsense.

Stay on topic, Rita.
3113. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 100 knot hurricane is not going through the Caribbean.


This isn't even a TD yet, and school kids are saying where its going (or not) as a 100kt storm. The only thing you can know at this point is the longer the blob stays a blob, the farther west it's going vs north-west.

You'll need to wait until at least Friday until you get a chance of any decent forecast showing a 10 percent chance of any FL landfall.
3116. Grothar
3117. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
One thing is certain, warmer waters ahead for 94L. The moisture content over the Caribbean is sufficient for development.
Man oh man you Florida casters need to just put a lid on it. NO FLA STORM. not even gonna form. Well that is what I want to hear... I don't want to call Dr. M. a jinx but!!! we will see.
3119. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM now going up 100KT or 115MPH
..boy that GFS continues to put whatever it becomes, up florida's west coast
06Z HWRF took a liking to 94L


If this new burst can grow and sustain itself, we have a TD.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 100 knot hurricane is not going through the Caribbean.


Right, cuz eight of the eleven strongest storms on record went through the Caribbean at some point.
I see a FAY coming
AL, 94, 2012082012, 156N, 448W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 95, 2012082012, 232N, 972W, 20, 1008, DB
AL, 96, 2012082012, 127N, 255W, 25, 1010, DB
3125. Grothar
3126. Chiggy
Latest TCHP:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The Euro doesn't get any praise either, it was also saying this would have been approaching cane status today. The GFS and Euro stopped showing that at the same time. They both failed with this system.


Since when do global models nail TC cyclogenesis........
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I believe the UKMET/CMC/HWRF combo seem to have the better handle on this storm IMO.



works for me
right guys I have 14 storm track that 94L may follow sometime during its life time















Pt2 come up
3130. txwcc
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right guys I have 14 storm track that 94L may follow sometime during its life time















Pt2 come up


There's a problem with that. No all of those storms were a category 4 crossing near Cayman.
94LLC no longer naked. Could be strengthening soon.
Quoting Chiggy:
Latest TCHP:


Not pretty.
The rainy season is upon us full force here in FL!

3134. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

3135. txwcc
Quoting Patrap:

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



We saw those already.

*Yawn*
3136. Patrap
Here comes the Sun...


3138. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right guys I have 14 storm track that 94L may follow sometime during its life time















Pt2 come up
You should put names and dates with those tracks WKC..It would help determine what patterns were in place when the storm occurred.
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

UGH!
3140. txwcc
Kman, I like the storms. Good work, Kid.
3141. Patrap
CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN SOILS

Over the past 150 years, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere hasincreased by 30%. Most scientists believe there is a direct relationship between increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. One proposed method to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide is to increase the global storage of carbon in soils.

An added benefit to this solution is the potential for simultaneous enhancement in agricultural production.

But what exactly is carbon sequestration, and what is its role in the global carbon cycle?

How can we manage soils to capitalize on their ability to store carbon?

And what are the costs and trade offs of these activities?
3142. SLU
The 00z 08/18 run of the GFS at 150hr showed a substantial hurricane entering the Caribbean.

The same 00z 08/18 run of the EURO at 144hr showed an open wave with a moderate windshift south of DR.

So far there's nothing to suggest 94L will be anywhere close to hurricane strength by the time it gets to 60w.
Pretty much just a year ago...


Today..


Odd...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Right, cuz eight of the eleven strongest storms on record went through the Caribbean at some point.

The pattern is different.
3145. Patrap
The next entry should find it's way here as the 12 Z runs are static,...


Dr. Masters always waits for the current obs and runs before updating.


*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial
3147. LargoFl
Quoting Jeff9645:
The rainy season is upon us full force here in FL!

yes it sure is
3149. VR46L
Quoting StormTracker2K:


What will be funny is that run after run will show 94L going near or over FL but then everyone will still bash the GFS. Other than the 12Z run of the GFS it has show a storm either crossing or riding up FL 4 out of the last 5 runs. Further more the Euro brings 94L NE across S FL similar to Fay in 08.


Umm on Thursday and early friday it was a monster fish with the GFS . On Friday evening it was the East coast Monster then it was on a depression on saturday then yesterday it was to wreak havoc on NOLA and Houston and the last night and today it was Florida and convention Doom .they have no idea at the moment and are offering so many solutions they are going to get one right



94L IN RAINBOW

What will you become ? shrugg

3150. txwcc
Quoting reedzone:
Pretty much just a year ago...


Today..
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/ plots/storm_94.gif

Odd...


Keep it real, Reed. This can easily be an East Coast Cruiser.
3151. Patrap
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The thing that irks me is Levi32 comes on here and doesn't plus not one comment from any other blogger on this blog but then everybody is supposed to respect his forecast. I listen to all people's opinions and enjoy listening to them but this guy thinks he's head honcho so much that no one here gets plussed by a great post which there are many on here from many "Great" bloggers.
What???? This is not the work of a mature poster. You plus because you feel like it. The [+] and [-] features are there for the use of bloggers, at their discretion. There are some bloggers who just don't use it at all.

I sure hope you aren't trying to say that the "best" forecasts are determined by how many social [+]s a blogger gets.... the fact that a lot of pple agree with you or are "friends" with you doesn't make you right....
3153. LargoFl
Mornin.

Seems like our canes are not having a good time thru the Atl. passing these past frew years.
3155. Michfan
Good morning everyone!

Looks like we have a convective blowup and with it now over warmer waters than yesterday it should be able to sustain it longer than it has been able to the past few days. The system is so large its really going to take a bit for it to consolidate. Latest 850 Vort:

its odd the ships shows a major hurricane but its in the carribean.. thoughts?
Morning All.

3158. txwcc
Quoting BahaHurican:
What???? This is not the work of a mature poster. You plus because you feel like it. The [ ] and [-] features are there for the use of bloggers, at their discretion. There are some bloggers who just don't use it at all.

I sure hope you aren't trying to say that the "best" forecasts are determined by how many social [ ]s a blogger gets.... the fact that a lot of pple agree with you or are "friends" with you doesn't make you right....


Whoa there, horsey. ST2K was just stating that Levi never takes the time to plus comments he feel are worthwhile. Makes many wonder about how he feels. And some might be under the impression that he thinks his head is too big and that's he's all that.

That's all, Baha.
Quoting txwcc:


There's a problem with that. No all of those storms were a category 4 crossing near Cayman.


only 3 of those where cat 3 and higher in the area and not all of them passes Cayman look I said possible track I did not say anything about intensity
3160. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
I think its a good idea, for PR to put the heavy rain warnings up for late this week
3162. Michfan
Quoting txwcc:


Whoa there, horsey. ST2K was just stating that Levi never takes the time to plus comments he feel are worthwhile. Makes many wonder about how he feels.

That's all, Baha.


This isn't Reddit.
3163. Patrap
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I see a FAY coming
Fay produced one 50 mph gust, maybe 1/2 inch of rain in Key West. Unfortunately i drove to the beach to watch the waves and as a girl removed her surf board off the top of her car a gust of wind took it out of her hands and into the side of my truck and busted the side window! The weather channel was down the beach trying to make interesting coverage by filming inbetween 2 buildings creating stronger winds, when, I kid you not, sunbathers were 30 ft away lounging on their towels in the sand
3165. txwcc
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


only 3 of those where cat 3 and higher in the area and not all of them passes Cayman look I said possible track I did not say anything about intensity


But we all know what you are thinking, Kid....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
True it is so big it will take Time!!
3167. LargoFl
Quoting serialteg:
Mornin.

Seems like our canes are not having a good time thru the Atl. passing these past frew years.
well way back in march the NHC said as much..the storms this year would mostly form close to home..and thats what has been happening..at least so far
3168. Patrap
3164. KeyWestwx


Ahh, the Cantore effect was in play.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial


TA13, I do think he is trying to tell you something.....

Anyways, i do think 94L will have a big problem with big islands.....
Thats all i have to say for now....ill be back around lunchtime
Quoting Patrap:
3164. KeyWestwx


Ahh, the Cantore effect was in play.
right! come on down, Jim!
8AM for 95L


94L
Well, that's something.

Not only did the trough nudge 95L farther out over the water, but it's enhancing it slightly. The water vapor imagery is going crazy right now.

If it doesn't get picked up, then it might be far enough east of the Texas ridge so as to slip behind the trough in the return flow.

Maybe the westward models are wrong after all...

hey guys just look at 94L rgb again looks like last 1 or 2 frames shows a WSW jog I don't know if thats just because of convection now coming over the LLCOC or if its that true movement though a WSW movement is expected via steering maps
Quoting txwcc:


Whoa there, horsey. ST2K was just stating that Levi never takes the time to plus comments he feel are worthwhile. Makes many wonder about how he feels. And some might be under the impression that he thinks his head is too big and that's he's all that.

That's all, Baha.
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?
3175. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
..well looks like your having a better morning today huh pat..gee yesterday you were getting some big rain storms there
Quoting Matt74:
Man i see the florida casters are out this morning. Still don't even have a storm yet and the models have been all over the place and will continue to be untill we actually get a storm
Of course they are! The tendency with this system appears to be FL at this time. Even with a storm you could have the models all over the place was well. Look at Debby. I think it is understandable that the FLA casters should be concerned, it may be right, iMO.
Quoting AegirsGal:
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?


I just +1 ed your post. If you mouse over the +1 icon, you can see that I +1 ed it.
Quoting AegirsGal:
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?


Rest the curser over the number it will tell you who plussed something anyway.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just look at 94L rgb again looks like last 1 or 2 frames shows a WSW jog I don't know if thats just because of convection now coming over the LLCOC or if its that true movement though a WSW movement is expected via steering maps


Steering is supposed to nudge it SW or WSW for quite some time.

Maybe the weakness had something to do with the N motion earlier, or maybe the CoC was just so disorganized and elongated that it tightened up higher by chance...who knows.

Steering wants to jog south though, as you've noted.

The center of 94L was 80 miles to the north-northeast of buoy 41041 at 9 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SSW winds of 16 mph. It'll be interesting to see if the winds go W at 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters
3181. txwcc
Quoting AegirsGal:
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?


Correct. You can view the results on all the posts. Xyrus2000 is another poster who does not use the + or - button.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lower than that, even: 0.2%, or 1-in-500...
1.6 % exactly.
3183. ncstorm
hold up..there is a 96L too??..I cant keep up..LOL
3184. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM for 95L


94L
wow its going to be wild here for a couple of weeks..one after another headed our way
Dr. M is on it.........Can't wait until his am entry.
Quoting ncstorm:
hold up..there is a 96L too??..I cant keep up..LOL


Lol. It is getting busy.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM for 95L


94L


Whatever happened to "pattern favors recurve out to sea"??
3188. Patrap
Quoting LargoFl:
..well looks like your having a better morning today huh pat..gee yesterday you were getting some big rain storms there


They are just Se of us this am and very dark that way too.

Battery failed in the Jeep so Im waiting for a new one coming from the Auto Zone.

Always when one has Mon appts stuff Happens, had to jump the battery to just get one window up. 2 Dead cells.

But its mt fault for not attending to it Friday I suppose.

Such are Mondays.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I just +1 ed your post. If you mouse over the +1 icon, you can see that I +1 ed it.
Ah, I see, thank you, WxGeekVA! I love learning new things everyday!!
Smart money is going on 96L. 94L continues to dissapoint, but at least its getting the atmosphere wetter. The SAL is killing us.
3191. hydrus
Quoting VR46L:


Umm on Thursday and early friday it was a monster fish with the GFS . On Friday evening it was the East coast Monster then it was on a depression on saturday then yesterday it was to wreak havoc on NOLA and Houston and the last night and today it was Florida and convention Doom .they have no idea at the moment and are offering so many solutions they are going to get one right



94L IN RAINBOW

What will you become ? shrugg

We were saying a couple days ago that there would be plenty of doom runs, and there would be hype. Once this is in the Central Caribbean ( which I believe now that it will ) the models and the goys and the NHC will nail the sucker.
3192. ncstorm
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. It is getting busy.


I saw SFL map and was like what?..let me go get some coffee to give my brain some kick..
3193. Grothar
You think this will come right over my house? :)
Quoting JeffMasters:

The center of 94L was 80 miles to the north-northeast of buoy 41041 at 9 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SSW winds of 16 mph. It'll be interesting to see if the winds go W at 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters
Thanks for the update. once 94L reaches 50W it should move over warmer water and there should be less SAL affecting it.
Quoting SLU:
The 00z 08/18 run of the GFS at 150hr showed a substantial hurricane entering the Caribbean.

The same 00z 08/18 run of the EURO at 144hr showed an open wave with a moderate windshift south of DR.

So far there's nothing to suggest 94L will be anywhere close to hurricane strength by the time it gets to 60w.


And by 18z the next day the GFS dropped it completely.
Wow Patrap! Stunning Lightning in Southern Louisiana!
And headed to North Florida. Yikes.

Cool tip on Plus ID TX! I never knew that.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z HWRF took a liking to 94L




One thing I find interesting about that run is the relative size of the system it develops. Looks TINY!

Whereas on the MIMIC TPW, there is a quite large envelope of deep moisture to work. I would think that as outer bands would form and mix out any remaining dust, the system would actually be pretty large in size...


3198. Patrap
I've noticed in Chrome that if I click a post with a quick Double click, they get a 2 fer for free.

So wunderyakuza might wanna check the code for that.

: )
Quoting txwcc:

Gee, I never thought of that one...
So DON'T pay attention now though.
3200. txwcc
Quoting AegirsGal:
Ah, I see, thank you, WxGeekVA! I love learning new things everyday!!


The most posts one can get are when the AGW crowd rolls in here. Watch some of those. Those can get massive, in the double digits sometimes. That's because they are band together and plus their own posts.
Quoting Greenizz:


True Largo.....and with the RNC in town what a nightmare evacuation would be. That said..anytime they start talking Tampa this far out we seem to skate by with nothing...fingers crossed.

lol, if Tampa was in the bulls eye, even if it was in the 5 day cone, it a sure sign of a non hit. Joking of course, but that has been how it has been for years. However, this is one tb area blogger that hopes that continues to hold true.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.


Slowly shifting north.
As much as most of us are dumping on 94L this morning, I am encouraged by some signs of organization. For the first time, the mid-level spin is not dominating satellite presentation and we have a clear idea about a low level circulation based on the the structure of clouds flowing in/out of the latest convective burst. I have to agree with Reed, if the convection over the center holds on, we should have a TD at 5:00.
3204. txwcc
Quoting Patrap:
Ive noticed in Chrome that if I click a post with a quick Double click, they get a 2 fer for free.

So wunderyakuza might wanna check the code for that.

: )


Firefox allows 4 quickies. Daddy likes!
3205. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:


They are just Se of us this am and very dark that way too.

Battery failed in the Jeep so Im waiting for a new one coming from the Auto Zone.

Always when one has Mon appts stuff Happens, had to jump the battery to just get one window up. 2 Dead cells.

But its mt fault for not attending to it Friday I suppose.

Such are Mondays.
And there is delicious ice cold Fresca after 5. Especially when things get bad..jmo...Morning..:)
Morning everyone...



Webcam image from Vila do Porto on Santa Maria, southern Azores.
On the first forecast map I made for 94L, it is currently located almost directly on the center line, but 20 MPH weaker.
Recon POD take off @ 12:30est

4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Quoting Patrap:
Ive noticed in Chrome that if I click a post with a quick Double click, they get a 2 fer for free.

So wunderyakuza might wanna check the code for that.

: )


Hey, it worked.

LOL.

Nice catch, that's gotta be a bug.
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due east from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.

edit due east not west.
3211. Grothar
3212. Patrap
LOL,

Morn Hydrus.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Pt2















The issue with all of these tracks is that they all started at different points (some of which would not be reachable by 94L), and they occurred at different times of year, with different conditions. I also see landfall on every one of these tracks. None are "fish storms". Might as well pick 14 random tracks.
3214. ncstorm
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due west from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.


Don't you mean 'due east from Mx to Fl'?
3216. txwcc
Quoting jeffs713:


The issue with all of these tracks is that they all started at different points (some of which would not be reachable by 94L), and they occurred at different times of year, with different conditions. I also see landfall on every one of these tracks. None are "fish storms". Might as well pick 14 random tracks.


You see the 12Z GFS, Jeff? It put a bullseye right over Tomball!
WOW, we are in the thick of it. 48 hours and 3,000 posts!
And I thought Climate issues got this blog hopping...
Excellent!

Cities in the drought areas should pay Jim C. to visit!


*le wild naked swirl appears!

Suddenly, convection!
3219. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And by 18z the next day the GFS dropped it completely.


Yes but not before the EURO
3220. Patrap
Dont know what a er, "AGW crowd" is, as I favor this statement whenever that Label is tozzed at folks feet.

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”

― Neil deGrasse Tyson

Good morning Pat! Gonna be a hectic day in here!!!
Quoting txwcc:


Firefox allows 4 quickies. Daddy likes!


ive got a minute so id thought id respond to this.

This idea is ridiculous because as soon as you refresh the page it should return to only haven given you one +1 on the post.

3223. LargoFl
Quoting WxGeekVA:


*le wild naked swirl appears!

Suddenly, convection!
..its getting closer to the warmer waters
Quoting WxGeekVA:
*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial

My mom and dad get a hurricane for their birthday. Thanks Mother Nature, lol.
3225. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
You think this will come right over my house? :)


No, but you will be on the bad side.
Modelcasting DOOM LMAO

could 95L make it before 94L? Who could be Isaac
Double clicking will give 2 pluses + but when you refresh it reverts back to just one
I come back from taking my son to get a school physical, and there is a 96L now? Choo! choo!, goes the wave train!
3230. txwcc
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ive got a minute so id thought id respond to this.

This idea is ridiculous because as soon as you refresh the page it should return to only haven given you one +1 on the post.



Yep. Exactly! Was waiting for someone to say that. It's not a bug, afterall.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due west from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.
Quoting txwcc:


You see the 12Z GFS, Jeff? It put a bullseye right over Tomball!


OMG! I have to start getting prepared! Only 360 hours to go!

3233. Patrap
like fish in a Barrel sometimes it is.


:0
Wrong Way Lenny



15.7 N, 45.0 W.
right for Miami


I'm updating my graphic for the path of 94L...there are some big changes
3237. LargoFl
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due east from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.

edit due east not west.
..nws said IF it goes northeastward..it will mix in with the trough, some models have all that rain going into north florida, like debby did..those folks up there do NOT..need that once again
3238. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
right for Miami


I'm updating my graphic for the path of 94L...there are some big changes
..geez we do not need this traveling up the middle of florida
Looking for a working webcam on the east coast of Taiwan. Anyone find one yet?
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.


Thanks and yes I meant due east. West would be quite he feat. Right, from boc to w coast fl. Thanks for your answer.
3241. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
We were saying a couple days ago that there would be plenty of doom runs, and there would be hype. Once this is in the Central Caribbean ( which I believe now that it will ) the models and the goys and the NHC will nail the sucker.


Yep they sure got Debbys initial offical track spot on ...North Texas if I recall lol.

3242. Patrap
94L


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
right for Miami


I'm updating my graphic for the path of 94L...there are some big changes

WOW!! DOOM!!

No but seriously, why are you changing your forecast based on every run of the GFS model?
Wow...looking at the blog this morning it is clear that:

BLOG RAPID INTENSIFICATION FLAG = ON

With a model or 2 showing a hurricane in the vicinity of FL in the next week or so, we probably should be hearing from the DOOM::CON committee shortly. I can only imagine that we will need an upgrade to the status.

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Don't you mean 'due east from Mx to Fl'?
Yes, due east. West from mx to FL would be quite the feat. lol. I corrected my post, thanks.
3246. Patrap
AL952012 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting Patrap:
Dont know what a er, "AGW crowd" is, as I favor this statement whenever that Label is tozzed at folks feet.

“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”

― Neil deGrasse Tyson




Well, the statement isn't exactly true.

"Science" is the study of reality.

The problem with that statement is that people tend to stand on existing theory as being "true" and refuse to admit gaps in it, or apply the theory to something it cannot logically be applied to. Ironically, the scientists themselves do this more than anyone else.


"Science" and "truth" are not identical.

"Science" is the search for Truth about the world and universe, and it is actually wrong all the time, more often than not, in fact.

science  
sci·ence
noun
1.
a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
2.
systematic knowledge of the physical or material world gained through observation and experimentation.
3.
any of the branches of natural or physical science.
4.
systematized knowledge in general.
5.
knowledge, as of facts or principles; knowledge gained by systematic study.



People, even all people at times, misunderstand what they "know," even within the body of "science".


What you know or what you think you know is not necessarily the truth, it's at best a model that approximates the truth, unless you're very lucky.
3248. LargoFl
Quoting jeffs713:


OMG! I have to start getting prepared! Only 360 hours to go!

LOL...you know..we here get a good head start IF this comes our way ..why...because we..are sitting here watching it..you would be surprised ..millions in florida are not even aware its out there.............Thank you doc for making this blog, know it or not..you are saving alot of people
Quoting WxGeekVA:
*le WxGeekVA forecast appears!



Unofficial
Right through VA. I wouldn't have guessed...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

WOW!! DOOM!!

No but seriously, why are you changing your forecast based on every run of the GFS model?


you will see...
3251. Patrap
AL952012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

3252. txwcc
I couldn't imagine the carnage over the years of Miami and south Florida if the landmass of Cuba was not there.

Hard to fathom.

Unless you get an Andrew that comes from the due East. Then you can get really slammed.
3253. txwcc
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Right through VA. I wouldn't have guessed...

ROFLMAO
3254. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
AL952012 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

..looks like it IS going to mix with the trough
Quoting emcf30:


No, but you will be on the bad side.
Modelcasting DOOM LMAO

Smack dab in the middle of the RNC lol
3256. Patrap
Quoting txwcc:
I couldn't imagine the carnage over the years of Miami and south Florida if the landmass of Cuba was not there.

Hard to fathom.

Unless you get an Andrew that comes from the due East. Then you can get really slammed.


Most Along the Northern Gulf Coast to Brownsville consider Florida our First Barrier Island, so thanx for being there.

: )
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wrong Way Lenny

Thanks, kinda like "Wrong way Corrican" infamous aviator of past era, who fly the wrong way.
Quoting bamagirl1964:
I know it is is extremely early and very uncertain, but I could JUST CRY and could use some of your very valuable input. My husband and I are 48 years old and are taking our very first cruise next weekend. We will leave from Miami to the Bahamas from next Friday, August 24th to Monday, August 27th. What are your thoughts on our cruise and if the worst case scenario occurs and 94L comes to the Bahamas, what would the cruise line do? I did take out the vacation protection package, but I am hoping for the best as I have been waiting for this for a very long time! Thank you so much for any input you can give me!


I know this is somewhat dated, as I am just catching up on the blog, but fwiw.

My wife and I always book cruises during the hurricane season because the ships can always change ports and go other places, and they will usually give you on-board credit or other compensation for the trouble. It is a risk, but can be a very nice benefit also.
3259. txwcc
Quoting Patrap:


Most Along the Northern Gulf Coast to Brownsville consider Florida our First Barrier Island, so thanx for being there.

: )

Haha! :)
3260. pottery
Good morning.
Beautiful day here at 11n 61w.

Looking at 94L is like looking at an old detective movie.....
What happens next????
Who done it????
Keep tuned ! The scriptwriters haven't got it worked out yet, either.
Quoting DookiePBC:
Wow...looking at the blog this morning it is clear that:

BLOG RAPID INTENSIFICATION FLAG = ON

With a model or 2 showing a hurricane in the vicinity of FL in the next week or so, we probably should be hearing from the DOOM::CON committee shortly. I can only imagine that we will need an upgrade to the status.

wrong site you need the enhance smileys blog for that or maybe no one is there thats why yer here
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.


Opal in 95 went from the BOC and took a beeline NE into NW Florida.
3263. Grothar
3264. txwcc
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wrong site you need the enhance smileys blog for that or maybe no one is there thats why yer here

Bunka?

LOL




Showing some twisting down here
3267. LargoFl
Quoting txwcc:
I couldn't imagine the carnage over the years of Miami and south Florida if the landmass of Cuba was not there.

Hard to fathom.

Unless you get an Andrew that comes from the due East. Then you can get really slammed.
Here's one what if the all of the islands in the Caribbean weren't there? I think the carnage would increase tenfold.
3269. Grothar
The GFS has this as a slow mover. I know I've been posting these for a few days, but they've been largely overlooked.

3270. bappit
"I'm subsiding, I'm subsiding! Ohhh, my beautiful tropicalness ..."

Models last week called this, front stalling out front over the GOM, with tail end spinning something up

Quoting bappit:
"I'm subsiding, I'm subsiding! Ohhh, my beautiful tropicalness ..."

Seems to be a reoccurring theme this year, similar to the SAL we had in 2006.
3274. Grothar
I told you people last week to make sure you have one of these.

As a South Floridian I am glad the models showing it coming here right now 5-6days out, that means it wont hit us. Anytime we have the cone pointed at us this far out they never come our way. Its a good sign. I feel bad for the Gulf Coast as it will probably end up there between New Orleans and the panhandle of FLA.
until 94l actually becomes something there is no reason to panic people. get a grip!!!

94l looks as dry and harmless right now as its looked in days...a
Quoting Patrap:


Most Along the Northern Gulf Coast to Brownsville consider Florida our First Barrier Island, so thanx for being there.

: )

Now that is just plain funny there!
3278. LargoFl
Has anyone here done any research or learned anything about why tropical cyclones tend to follow vaguely defined routes through the Caribbean and sometimes into the Gulf, avoiding all landmasses on the trek. For example Ivan...

I just find it interesting that a CV waves can ride the ITCZ across the atlantic, find themselves traversing the length of the Caribbean hitting nothing but the windward and leeward island, and then being drawn north by a trough at the perfect time to shoot the gap between Cuba and Cozumel...

Is there any mechanism encouraging the systems to avoid land, or is it a shear coincidence that the atmospheric dynamics and the geographical dynamics align to provide a route of 4,000 miles across open ocean (maybe) encountering one of the lesser Antilles?
Quoting Clearwater1:
Has there ever been a hurricane or TS that has headed due east from Mx To FL? Just wondering if that's a possible scenario with 95, what with that trof in place.
Anyone? Oh, def. not wishcasting, just wondering.

edit due east not west.


Hurricane Bob and Hurricane Henri in 1979 both had tracks that traveled east from western BOC.

Tropical storm Bess in 1978

Hurricane Edith in 1971 turned east after reaching western BOC.

One that reached Florida from BOC is tropical storm Josephine in 1996 or hurricane Earl nad Mitch in 1998.

It can happen !!!
by the looks of it we should have TD9 by 94L by either 11am or 5pm or 11pm today
3282. LargoFl
3283. LargoFl
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it we should have TD9 by 94L by either 11am or 5pm or 11pm today
might not too, still moving way too fast
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Has anyone here done any research or learned anything about why tropical cyclones tend to follow vaguely defined routes through the Caribbean and sometimes into the Gulf, avoiding all landmasses on the trek. For example Ivan...

I just find it interesting that a CV waves can ride the ITCZ across the atlantic, find themselves traversing the length of the Caribbean hitting nothing but the windward and leeward island, and then being drawn north by a trough at the perfect time to shoot the gap between Cuba and Cozumel...

Is there any mechanism encouraging the systems to avoid land, or is it a shear coincidence that the atmospheric dynamics and the geographical dynamics align to provide a route of 4,000 miles across open ocean (maybe) encountering one of the lesser Antilles?


I'm not sure about that long a track. But I was surprised to learn that only one storm that has crossed Florida actually made landfall in TX.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Right through VA. I wouldn't have guessed...


I made a cone of where I think that 94L might go, then put a line in the middle of the cone and added intensity. This is the first cone I've made that brought 94L over VA in the center line. So I am not wishcasting at all.

Last 2 forecasts:

Original


Second:
3286. txwcc
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it we should have TD9 by 94L by either 11am or 5pm or 11pm today


We can also have a cat 4 moving through the Central Caribbean, but it probably won't happen.
Post 3267: models definitely trending north and east.
3288. Grothar
so, I think this is better news for Florida?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Post 3267: models definitely trending north and east.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Has anyone here done any research or learned anything about why tropical cyclones tend to follow vaguely defined routes through the Caribbean and sometimes into the Gulf, avoiding all landmasses on the trek. For example Ivan...

I just find it interesting that a CV waves can ride the ITCZ across the atlantic, find themselves traversing the length of the Caribbean hitting nothing but the windward and leeward island, and then being drawn north by a trough at the perfect time to shoot the gap between Cuba and Cozumel...

Is there any mechanism encouraging the systems to avoid land, or is it a shear coincidence that the atmospheric dynamics and the geographical dynamics align to provide a route of 4,000 miles across open ocean (maybe) encountering one of the lesser Antilles?



Strong storms produce something called the "Island rebound effect" which actually pushes them away from islands.

Wilma also showed a rebound effect as it was making landfall at Mexico, as the main convection mass kept moving forward, while the eye was somewhat stationary for a few hours; pushing itself away from land, but eventually it couldn't stop moving forward, and went on land.

Anyway, Island rebound happens with cat 3 and above, and the models are not good at dealing with it on track or intensity.


What happens is it LOOKS like a straight line will take the storm over the island, but it pushest itself away from the island and hooks around it instead. This prevents the island from weakening the storm, and screws up the storm track by about 50 to 100 miles, depending on the size and topography of the island the storm is "dodging".

It usually needs to be a really strong storm with a solid eye-wall to do this.
GROTHAR, you have our attention with the GFS projections for next Monday and Tuesday...right when the RNC is to be up and going about 17 miles to my east. IF such a storm could be close to FL by this upcoming weekend, I am sure the Emergency MGMT folks, meterologists, NHC, etc. will be ready/are ready now.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, the statement isn't exactly true.

"Science" is the study of reality.

The problem with that statement is that people tend to stand on existing theory as being "true" and refuse to admit gaps in it, or apply the theory to something it cannot logically be applied to. Ironically, the scientists themselves do this more than anyone else.


"Science" and "truth" are not identical.

"Science" is the search for Truth about the world and universe, and it is actually wrong all the time, more often than not, in fact.

science  
sci·ence
noun
1.
a branch of knowledge or study dealing with a body of facts or truths systematically arranged and showing the operation of general laws: the mathematical sciences.
2.
systematic knowledge of the physical or material world gained through observation and experimentation.
3.
any of the branches of natural or physical science.
4.
systematized knowledge in general.
5.
knowledge, as of facts or principles; knowledge gained by systematic study.



People, even all people at times, misunderstand what they "know," even within the body of "science".


What you know or what you think you know is not necessarily the truth, it's at best a model that approximates the truth, unless you're very lucky.
I think you're confusing the philosophy of science with scientific fact, and scientific fact is what Dr. Tyson was referring to with that statement. In that regard, then, it's entirely true. In fact, it's the only absolute, provable, and knowable truth in this entire Universe.
Quoting LargoFl:


Looking at the XTRP model, that must have been the one used by Dr. M last night when he commented about how 94L could be a Yucatan storm. I'm thinking Dr. M may be correct yet again.
Quoting LargoFl:
might not too, still moving way too fast


well Ernesto was moving fast and TD7 was moving faster than both ernesto and 94L so maybe for it not to it would have to be moving faster... hmm faster than TD7 and Ernesto it seems hmm that would be faster than 25kts which it is not sooo... yeah as I said should be TD9 by either 11am, 5pm, or 11pm today
Good morning grothar as well:)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it we should have TD9 by 94L by either 11am or 5pm or 11pm today


If you keep calling it as you do, eventually you will be right. I think we are still 24 hrs away. Conditions will moisten up even better and SST increase 1 degree after 50w.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Strong storms produce something called the "Island rebound effect" which actually pushes them away from islands.

Wilma also showed a rebound effect as it was making landfall at Mexico, as the main convection mass kept moving forward, while the eye was somewhat stationary for a few hours; pushing itself away from land, but eventually it couldn't stop moving forward, and went on land.

Anyway, Island rebound happens with cat 3 and above, and the models are not good at dealing with it on track or intensity.


What happens is it LOOKS like a straight line will take the storm over the island, but it pushest itself away from the island and hooks around it instead. This prevents the island from weakening the storm, and screws up the storm track by about 50 to 100 miles, depending on the size and topography of the island the storm is "dodging".

It usually needs to be a really strong storm with a solid eye-wall to do this.


We just use the Death Ridge. ;)
This thing is moving too fast, convection already trying to get ahead of the circulation, I wonder how wind shear is looking in this region?

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Talk about ironey huh. Didn't this happen the last time we had the RNC in Lousiana in 2008? Gustav?
Wasn't RNC in Minneapolis or somewhere up north?

I think hurricanes during RNC conventions is more a function of the date... I mean... end of August, beginning of September? Please.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


What will be funny is that run after run will show 94L going near or over FL but then everyone will still bash the GFS. Other than the 12Z run of the GFS it has show a storm either crossing or riding up FL 4 out of the last 5 runs. Further more the Euro brings 94L NE across S FL similar to Fay in 08.
Florida has been in the forecast in some way or the other for days. It can't be that hard to see at least some potential for it to get hit, regardless of whether the storm tracks north or south of the Antilles. It's all about the timing and strength of that next trough, IMO.

Quoting txwcc:


Whoa there, horsey. ST2K was just stating that Levi never takes the time to plus comments he feel are worthwhile. Makes many wonder about how he feels. And some might be under the impression that he thinks his head is too big and that's he's all that.

That's all, Baha.
Ah... much clearer. I did find it kinda weird ST2K would say something like that.

Thanks.
Quoting AegirsGal:
How do you know 'whom' has plussed or minused a post? Doesn't it just show up when someone has, but no identification, right?
If you hover over the +#, you can see who plussed.

I just was a bit disconcerted by the idea of this blog as a "social network" rather than as an information sharing one.
3300. icmoore
Quoting Grothar:
The GFS has this as a slow mover. I know I've been posting these for a few days, but they've been largely overlooked.



Did you post something? I didn't see anything hmm maybe I overlooked it :)
3301. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This thing is moving too fast, convection already trying to get ahead of the circulation, I wonder how wind shear is looking in this region?

..yes moving way too fast..just a swirl of strong thunderstorms right now..it just may NOT form unless it puts the brakes on
3302. Patrap
GOP Cancels Opening Convention Night

GOP Cancels Convention Opening Night
DAVID ESPO | August 31, 2008 05:18 PM EST |
ST. PAUL, Minn. — John McCain tore up the script for his Republican National Convention on Sunday, ordering the cancellation of all but essential opening-day activities as Hurricane Gustav churned toward New Orleans.
“This is a time when we have to do away with our party politics and we have to act as Americans,” he said as fellow Republicans converged on their convention city to nominate him for the White House.
On the eve of his convention, McCain positioned himself as an above-politics, concerned potential president determined to avoid the errors made by President Bush three years ago. “I have every expectation that we will not see the mistakes of Katrina repeated,” he said.
Bush and Vice President Cheney scrapped plans to address the convention on Monday, and McCain’s aides chartered a jet to fly delegates back to their hurricane-threatened states along the Gulf Coast. Campaign manager Rick Davis said the first-night program was being cut from seven hours to two and one half.
The formal business of the convention includes nominating McCain for president and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Wednesday. McCain’s acceptance speech, set for prime time on Thursday evening, is among the most critical events of the campaign for his chances of winning the White House.
The hasty reordering of an event months in the planning was unprecedented, affecting not only the program on the podium but the accompanying fundraising, partying and other political activity that unfolds around the edges of a national political convention.
McCain said he was looking forward to being the convention but did not say when he would arrive. He spoke via satellite from St. Louis after he and Palin received a briefing on hurricane preparations in Jackson, Miss.
In an interview with NBC, he said it was possible he would make his acceptance speech not from the convention podium but via satellite from the Gulf Coast region.
3303. Chiggy
Quoting 954Soxfan:
As a South Floridian I am glad the models showing it coming here right now 5-6days out, that means it wont hit us. Anytime we have the cone pointed at us this far out they never come our way. Its a good sign. I feel bad for the Gulf Coast as it will probably end up there between New Orleans and the panhandle of FLA.


Good point actually.. :)
3304. bappit
From Brownsville forecast discussion (95L):

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER EAST COAST OF MEXICO AND/OR A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THAT PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE BRO CWFA...AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST DISSIPATES.
Here's a good graphic showing the increase in instability that should help 94L to slowly strengthen over the next 36 hours. Keep in mind that this is based on relatively low resolution data, but paints a good broad picture of the enviroment.

Anything below zero is stable, zero is neutral, while anything above zero is unstable. The higher the number, the more unstable the environment which favors deeper convection.

As 94L moves west along about 15-20N, instability increases.

3306. Grothar
3307. Chiggy
06Z HWRF..
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes moving way too fast..just a swirl of strong thunderstorms right now..it just may NOT form unless it puts the brakes on
faster and faster it goes where it stops nobody knows. I expect this speed to continue well into the Caribbean until it reaches south of Haiti where the trade winds slow down and the pilling up of air begins, by then we should know where this is going.
3309. LargoFl
Quoting Jeff9645:


Looking at the XTRP model, that must have been the one used by Dr. M last night when he commented about how 94L could be a Yucatan storm. I'm thinking Dr. M may be correct yet again.
..it would be great IF that happened
Why does the satellite loop go to crap at 25 degrees W in the atlantic??
Quoting txwcc:


We can also have a cat 4 moving through the Central Caribbean, but it probably won't happen.


ha ha ha very funny.

no. I don't see a Cat 4 at all. I'd say Cat 2 maybe Cat 3, but Cat 3 is just pushing it.

so Cat 2/boarder Cat 3, but I am leaning more on moderate to strong Cat 2, rather than strong Cat2 boarder Cat 3
Quoting 954Soxfan:
As a South Floridian I am glad the models showing it coming here right now 5-6days out, that means it wont hit us. Anytime we have the cone pointed at us this far out they never come our way. Its a good sign. I feel bad for the Gulf Coast as it will probably end up there between New Orleans and the panhandle of FLA.


Need I remind you Frances and Wilma were pointed at us 5, 6 days, even a week in advance and still hit here?
Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
I think you're confusing the philosophy of science with scientific fact, and scientific fact is what Dr. Tyson was referring to with that statement. In that regard, then, it's entirely true. In fact, it's the only absolute, provable, and knowable truth in this entire Universe.


Einstein reportedly manipulated E=MC(2)and is reportedly why he did not add the formula to his memoirs. Much like the hockey stick.
On the latest ensemble runs there were a pretty good amount headed at NC and SC
3316. LargoFl
3317. sar2401
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
could 95L make it before 94L? Who could be Isaac


I haven't even seen a model for 95L that takes it to a TD. What makes you think it will ever get a name?
3318. hydrus
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This thing is moving too fast, convection already trying to get ahead of the circulation, I wonder how wind shear is looking in this region?

Conditions should be favorable down the road..Here is a current shear map..
This GFS track would be horrific for Taiwan.

Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...

Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
953 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W 1012 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN
TURN W AND MOVE INLAND THE COAST OF NE MEXICO WED.
THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU.

Quoting RTSplayer:
This GFS track would be horrific for Taiwan.

Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...

Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...


they.can.handle.it
Quoting Jeff9645:


Looking at the XTRP model, that must have been the one used by Dr. M last night when he commented about how 94L could be a Yucatan storm. I'm thinking Dr. M may be correct yet again.
XTRP isn't a model. It is a straight line based on the speed and direction of the system.
Quoting sar2401:


I haven't even seen a model for 95L that takes it to a TD. What makes you think it will ever get a name?
The GFS shows 1 isobar approaching the northern Leeward Islands in 180 hrs. but that's about it, not even sure if that would be enough for classification, now the waves behind it are a different story.
94L LLC a few hours from higher SSTs.
3325. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
The GFS has this as a slow mover. I know I've been posting these for a few days, but they've been largely overlooked.

That is quite a dangerous scenario if it were to materialize.
Quoting RTSplayer:
This GFS track would be horrific for Taiwan.

Cat 3/4 landfall, Cat 3 on the first full inland point, and probably still cat 1 when it's finally exiting the coast going back eastward...

Rainfall totals on this would be enormous, because that looks like 30 to 36 hours under at least part of the CDO...




To be followed by TS BOLAVEN - Taiwan and parts of China are going to take a hit and amounts of rainfall that have the potential for tragic results
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
953 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 23N97W 1012 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN
TURN W AND MOVE INLAND THE COAST OF NE MEXICO WED.
THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND THU.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU.


This is what the GFS thinks on 95L...lets hope this is what happens...hate the thought of anything getting a chance to develop in the hot water
if the center of 94L is more north and north east, doesn't that make the liklihood of a recurve east of Florida more likely?
3329. LargoFl
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.

Wow that guy on storm2k site has gone down the drain...says recon shouldn't be going into 95L lol!
Quoting hurricanehanna:

This is what the GFS thinks on 95L...lets hope this is what happens...hate the thought of anything getting a chance to develop in the hot water


I hope so too. And maybe it will sling some rain STX way.
3333. txwcc
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.



Knew it.
Quoting Thing342:
XTRP isn't a model. It is a straight line based on the speed and direction of the system.

I still say the XTRP is a better model than all except the GFS and ECMWF through the years
maybe right now but of course these tracks could go back and forth.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.

Winds are out of the SW at buoy 41041 at about 10 knots:

Current Weather/Wave Observations
Air Temperature: 76° F
Humidity: 100
Wind direction (W Dir): SW (215 - 224 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 9.7 kts (11.2 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 11.7 kts (13.4 mph)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 8 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 5.58 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 5.6 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 4 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Wave Swell Period (WSP): 8 sec
Wave Swell Height (WSH): 4.92 ft
Wave Swell Range (WSR): 4.10 - 5.74 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.88 in
Updated: 1:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting SSideBrac:


To be followed by TS BOLAVEN - Taiwan and parts of China are going to take a hit and amounts of rainfall that have the potential for tragic results



Yeah, let's say the GFS is right...

30 to 36 hours of 1.5 inches per hour of rain would be 45 to 54 inches of rain.

And that's not even a stretch for the W. Pacific.

Some of these typhoons have broken 80 or 90 inches of rain when they stall out over an island.


Guy saying "they can handle it" isn't thinking about that.

Sure it's Taiwan, they're advanced and all, but a stall or a slow hook like that would be a nightmare on any island...
someone please give me their thoughts on the storm being pulled back into the gulf off the mexico coast....will the front pull it up?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.



Yep and they will move again I imagine.


Kinda blusterous in Grand Cayman right now.
3341. Patrap
Quoting kshipre1:
maybe right now but of course these tracks could go back and forth.
True we'll see them fluctuate back n forth, but as we get closer in time the path becomes narrowed down.
3343. Grothar
Quoting johnbluedog69:
Good morning grothar as well:)


Morning back to you bluedog.
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?
A weaker Ridge would do the trick.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH A
VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL HELP GENERATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN
ACROSS OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLZ039-042-043-048-212000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0006.120820T1400Z-120822T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
935 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CITRUS...HERNANDO...LEVY AND SUMTER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Quoting Thing342:
XTRP isn't a model. It is a straight line based on the speed and direction of the system.


The XTRP is the Leeroy Jenkins of computer models. It just plows the storm straight ahead, regardless of what is in the storms path, or the steering currents. The storm just runs in, no thinking or preparation. The storm just yells its famous war cry and goes in.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Patience really is absolutely key with this system. We all know that we've seen far uglier systems develop in far worse out there.
Disorganized now usually means organized later!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ensemble Members says East Coast now.



Either way South Florida dodges another bullet. I was thinking Gulf Coast but it may go east. Atleast we can rest easy now here in Fort Lauderdale!!!! :)

quite a turn for the east coast
PlazaRed,
The rain for Spain... coming from a hurricane... (Think you'll get it?)
The rain in Spain (that) falls mainly on the plain... (Think he'll get it?)

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStoryGordon for 20August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 984millibars to 990millibars
MaxSusWinds decreased from 65knots(75mph)120km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
Vector changed from 67.1*ENEast@18.9mph(27.1km/h)^ to 60.3*ENEast@16.8mph(30.4km/h)

PDL-SaoMiguel :: SMA-SantaMaria :: SCQ-Santiago de Compostela

The westernmost dot is Gordon's final position as a Hurricane
The westernmost dot on the longest line is where H.Gordon became a TropicalStorm, and its most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to a coastline
20Aug.~5:20amGMT: H.Gordon made passage ~1.4miles(2.25kilometres)NorthNorthWest of SantaMaria at its closest approach^
20Aug.6amGMT: H.Gordon had been headed for passage over OnsIsland,Spain^ (coastline dot beneath the straightline projection)
20Aug.6amGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage over the southern tip of Muros in ~1day17hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste pdl, sma, 42.368n8.946w, scq, 37.1n25.0w-37.9n23.2w, 37.1n25.0w-42.738n9.087w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information

^ For 2 appropriately scaled maps and other relevant information, see the previous mapping
Quoting Bluestorm5:
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?


It looks like it will continue cruising quickly around 25kts, until it gets further in to the Caribbean. IMO

Quoting txwcc:


Correct. You can view the results on all the posts. Xyrus2000 is another poster who does not use the + or - button.

How do I view how many people have + or - a post??
Quoting 954Soxfan:


Either way South Florida dodges another bullet. I was thinking Gulf Coast but it may go east. Atleast we can rest easy now here in Fort Lauderdale!!!! :)
For now, but the models can converge there again.
Quoting SLU:
The 00z 08/18 run of the GFS at 150hr showed a substantial hurricane entering the Caribbean.

The same 00z 08/18 run of the EURO at 144hr showed an open wave with a moderate windshift south of DR.

So far there's nothing to suggest 94L will be anywhere close to hurricane strength by the time it gets to 60w.
So what is the underlying difference with these two models? What is the main factor that makes it into a wave? SAL? shear?


Becoming less well defined and convection is weakening... Probably going to refire soon though.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
94L is moving way too fast to forms. Anyone got ideas what will slow it down?
Usually slows down when it changes direction of movement. Also, as we get later in the season they tend to slow down, unless picked up by a trough.
yep. I am interested to see where the coc forms with this storm and the interaction with the High and trough
Quoting GTcooliebai:
True we'll see them fluctuate back n forth, but as we get closer in time the path becomes narrowed down.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

quite a turn for the east coast


Again, I would be interested to know why the operational forecast of the GFS disagrees so heavily with all of it's members.

It's like, "Ah screw it, I'm going to Grand Cayman anyway..."
when is the high supposed to weaken?
Quoting 954Soxfan:
As a South Floridian I am glad the models showing it coming here right now 5-6days out, that means it wont hit us. Anytime we have the cone pointed at us this far out they never come our way. Its a good sign. I feel bad for the Gulf Coast as it will probably end up there between New Orleans and the panhandle of FLA.
What annoys me the most about this is that it almost NEVER works for the Bahamas... if we're in the 7-day cone, it's like DOOM one way or the other... my fave example is Jeanne... came off Hispaniola, went due north as a MLC... big sigh of relief... only to find that we STILL got wiped...

Just can't win for losing.... lol

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm not sure about that long a track. But I was surprised to learn that only one storm that has crossed Florida actually made landfall in TX.
I think a look at MSLP patterns might provide some interesting answers to this. I don't think we see a bridging high that lasts long enough to cover the "gap" over the eastern half of the CONUS... Storms coming out of the Caribbean that also hit TX tend to already be far enough West to begin with, IIRC...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
This thing is moving too fast, convection already trying to get ahead of the circulation, I wonder how wind shear is looking in this region?

Speed shear again???

3363. gugi182
I beginning to think 94L won't even develops into that monster hurricane we where all expecting and it will be just a tropical wave in the Caribbean at least a Tropical Depression. It's just moving to fast it like in a hurry to get somewhere. We should put speed bumps in the ocean to slow theses storms down!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wasn't RNC in Minneapolis or somewhere up north?

I think hurricanes during RNC conventions is more a function of the date... I mean... end of August, beginning of September? Please.

Florida has been in the forecast in some way or the other for days. It can't be that hard to see at least some potential for it to get hit, regardless of whether the storm tracks north or south of the Antilles. It's all about the timing and strength of that next trough, IMO.

Ah... much clearer. I did find it kinda weird ST2K would say something like that.

Thanks. If you hover over the +#, you can see who plussed.

I just was a bit disconcerted by the idea of this blog as a "social network" rather than as an information sharing one.



Baha: I would have to agree with you. The first set went out to sea, the second set went to Mexico, and now they are settling into a modification of both.

The unsettling factor is that the models have been pretty good even 5 days out the last two years.

The better factor is 300 miles plus/minus makes a huge difference!
It seems like we here in Trinidad and Tobago will just be spectators for L94 and L95.
3366. Jax82
first coast news mentioning 'Isaac' next Sunday. I hope we are 'watching' him recurve out to sea. LOL

3367. sar2401
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

quite a turn for the east coast


Especially for a model run that's over 24 hours old. :)
3368. gugi182
94L another busted!!!!!!!, to much hyped and it looks like it will not live up to the feared "I" name this year.
Quoting Jax82:
first coast news mentioning 'Isaac' next Sunday. I hope we are 'watching' him recurve out to sea. LOL

Unlikely recurving out to sea. However, it's way too early to be sure Florida will get hit.
BAHA

I think a look at MSLP patterns might provide some interesting answers to this. I don't think we see a bridging high that lasts long enough to cover the "gap" over the eastern half of the CONUS... Storms coming out of the Caribbean that also hit TX tend to already be far enough West to begin with, IIRC...

Yes we get a lot of them that originate west or south of FL. But the ones that miss FL and hit TX all say something about rounding the edge of a deep layered high over the SE.
3372. Grothar
Here are two of the FIM models. One shows the system going to the east of Florida. Remember, these are only experimental models and NOT forecasts. We all know there will be a lot of switching in the next few days. I do believe that 94L will be a depression by this evening, though.

I believe this model shows a strong trough moving the system to the North.



This model, the FIM7, shows the turn coming a little later.







I can't no more with 94L! That's another enesto TD7 like bust. What a pity the atlantic it.
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Link

Einstein reportedly manipulated E=MC(2)and is reportedly why he did not add the formula to his memoirs. Much like the hockey stick.
Wow, just spent wasted five minutes on that guy's site. It appears that in addition to singlehandedly doing away with an entire branch of phsyics by proving Einstein wrong, he's also demonstrated conclusively that crop circles are not a hoax, that the distance of the planets from the sun is dictated solely by the chemical composition of their individual atmospheres, and that ancient Mayans invented both interplanetary and interstellar space travel.

Yowza...

You know, if this is the kind of nonsense some people deem credible, it's small wonder they have no grasp on climate science...
3375. Grothar
Quoting ChimpWidaLimp:
Excuse me, while I whip this out:


Too early in the day for "Blazing Saddles". :)

Let's not forget 96L behind 94L...



Also, how strong is this typhoon?

Dry air go in hell you make everything look boring
96L is another bust. We wont even get a well developped storm in the MDR
Quoting ChimpWidaLimp:
Excuse me, while I whip this out:
Thanks for the humor :)
Quoting Grothar:


Too early in the day for "Blazing Saddles". :)



My favorite line from the movie is, "When?" lol
Have there been any reports out of the Azores about what conditions were actually experienced with Gordon, and what sorts of damage/records may have occurred?
somebody needs to learn what patience is!!!
3374... I just about agreed with one of your posts for the first time, until you had to stick that last little sentence in there at the end...
let's all remember that even if this storm and one behind do recurve, that would not at all be surprising given that is a typical track for many August CV storms. I would think that come September and October, storms closer to home could be more a threat.
3385. ncstorm
00z CMC

3386. Grothar
Quoting sar2401:


Especially for a model run that's over 24 hours old. :)


How about these?

3387. txwcc
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, just spent wasted five minutes on that guy's site. It appears that in addition to singlehandedly doing away with an entire branch of phsyics by proving Einstein wrong, he's also demonstrated conclusively that crop circles are not a hoax, that the distance of the planets from the sun is dictated solely by the chemical composition of their individual atmospheres, and that ancient Mayans invented both interplanetary and interstellar space travel.

Yowza...

You know, if this is the kind of nonsense some people deem credible, it's small wonder they have no grasp on climate science...


I see. So if it doesn't conform to your warming agenda, then you automatically discredit the source.

Gotcha.
Yeah... and of course that's a carib cruiser lol...

20/1145 UTC 15.7N 44.8W TOO WEAK 94L
20/0545 UTC 14.9N 42.1W TOO WEAK 94L
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3390. txwcc
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
somebody needs to learn what patience is!!!


A virtue.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM for 95L


94L
The maps are not 95L.
3392. Grothar
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
somebody needs to learn what patience is!!!


Who has the time?
Living on the Delmarva peninsula, I will be keeping a close eye on 94l.Irene interrupted my sons 5th birthday party Aug27th last year. Hope it doesn't happen again this year.
Quoting Altestic2012:
3374... I just about agreed with one of your posts for the first time, until you had to stick that last little sentence in there at the end...
Take that up with the person to whom I was responding--the one who stuck his own little last sentence in there at the end.
3395. CJ5
I see all of the naysayers are in full force this am. 94 bust, 96 bust, season a bust. LOL

94 is tracking pretty fast but has great spin, in relative low shear and good in good water temps. Nothing indicates it will die just yet. Models are not very good right now. We will have to wait until it becomes a TD/TS to start getting good reads.

96l is new and has many more days before it can be judged with any accuracy.

Just be patient and see how it all plays out.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, just spent wasted five minutes on that guy's site. It appears that in addition to singlehandedly doing away with an entire branch of phsyics by proving Einstein wrong, he's also demonstrated conclusively that crop circles are not a hoax, that the distance of the planets from the sun is dictated solely by the chemical composition of their individual atmospheres, and that ancient Mayans invented both interplanetary and interstellar space travel.

Yowza...

You know, if this is the kind of nonsense some people deem credible, it's small wonder they have no grasp on climate science...


Try this one.

I don't know if I'd call him a crank. He does real research and invention, trying to make EHD practical seems to be his personal hobby.

Check under "Food For Thought" and "EHD".

Blazelabs

He has well reasoned arguments which are hard to disagree with in principle, even though they are not all in agreement with mainstream theories, they nevertheless appear to be able to explain phenomena consistently while using some alternate theories and axioms in science.

It's sort of like "MOND" in that hes not discarding something just for the sake of it, but trying to tweak it to make it more accurate, or replace it with something more consistent.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.
Quoting percylives:
On a slightly different subject Cryosphere Today now has the Northern Hemisphere with less than 2.9 million square kilometers of ice cover. This is a new minimum in their satellite record and any additional melting will just add to 2012's record. There still is about a month before re-freezing usually begins.
Speaking of ice, with all the model runs for the invests and TCs over the past few weeks, there has also been a persistent low pressure system in the Arctic that doesn't seem to be dissipating, but doing a number on the ice there.
Quoting txwcc:


I see. So if it doesn't conform to your warming agenda, then you automatically discredit the source.

Gotcha.
No. If it doesn't follow the scientific method, I automatically discredit the source. But you're certainly free to side with the Mayan astronaut/crop circle/anti-relativity gentleman. After all, he did prove Einstein and the thousands of physicists who validated his work wrong; it's a travesty that he hasn't been recognized for his genius. :-\
3400. NYX
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think you mean "due east" and the answer is obviously yes.

Wilma went from Yucatan to Florida, but you mean from BoC to Florida. I don't know one right off hand, but it would be hard to imagine that not happening since all it would take is a TS over the BoC and then a deep trough picks it up.

Yes, retrograde tracks happen, and they can even be relatively powerful storms in some cases.

Hurricane Lenny, 1999:

This formed on the WEST/LEFT side of the track went east against all normal patterns, made category 4, and died over the MDR.




I can't remember full west-to-east Gulf examples, but I'm sure they exist.


We get hit from every which direction. Wilma was southwest to northeast. Katrina was northeast to southwest. Andrew was straight east to west. Tropical storm Debbie this year I think went west to east across north Florida. Too many to even think about.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wrong Way Lenny

"BOY, I SAY BOY...YOU'RE DOIN IT ALL WRONG!" (in the Foghorn Leghorn accent)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's not forget 96L behind 94L...



Also, how strong is this typhoon?



Could be a one, two punch for someone down the line.
3403. CJ5
This is good news. I have not seen it posted yet.

PITTSBURGH (AP) - In a surprising turnaround, the amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere in the U.S. has fallen dramatically to its lowest level in 20 years, and government officials say the biggest reason is that cheap and plentiful natural gas has led many power plant operators to switch from dirtier-burning coal.

Many of the world’s leading climate scientists didn’t see the drop coming, in large part because it happened as a result of market forces rather than direct government action against carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.

Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said the shift away from coal is reason for "cautious optimism" about potential ways to deal with climate change. He said it demonstrates that "ultimately people follow their wallets" on global warming.


Link
3404. NYX
Quoting Grothar:


How about these?



I love how nearly every model at some point or another has a storm going straight into Miami/Fort Lauderdale.
I have a theory. The theory is the Weather Channel never was the same after the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. I remember I always liked the Weather Channel before and during those seasons. They were conservative in the sense that they only heavily advertised something if it was happening and it was something to really be concerned about. I remember the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. It was a field day for the Weather Channel, they had new reporters in the field like Mike Bettes and Stepahanie Abrahms. They made a great show, and it was REAL. Their rating must have SOARED. Looking back on youtube videos from back then, I see how calm they were during the hurricanes. Calmer in the sense that they would have their storm alert time for a hurricane, and then they would take just as much or more time talking about the weather for the rest of the country. It was pretty much the same for the 2005 season, although they did start to jazz thing up near the end, it was more understandable because that was an unbelievably bad year. But for 2006 on, it's just overhyping and pure sensationalism. I remember in 2006, when Alberto and Ernesto were threatening Florida as tropical storms, I vividly remember on the Weather Channel that all they would do is talk about that situation, and it was only a tropical storm! You could just feel the wanting of a real dire situation from the Weather Channel, they just wanted more and more and more of 2004-2005's countinued thunder, during when it seemed like the world depended on the Weather Channel. Of course around 2007? they got their new studio, and some big news company took over the Weather Channel, which further exasperated the situation. They fired most of their long time reporters to replace them with young, good looking, models... The only peope they kept were the ones that really made the Weather Channel what it was: Jim Cantore, Dr. Forbes, etc... And now today, what do you see on the front page of their website? TROPICAL WAVE 1000 MILES EAST OF THE ANTILLES COULD BE A THREAT. Come on! GET REAL WEATHER CHANNEL! Only have a headline like that if it's already a hurricane in the Caribbean with a track to the Gulf. Not to say that they should not warn people of an upcoming long term threat of a wave or storm in the Atlantic. So the bottom line is, THE WEATHER CHANNEL WAS NEVER THE SAME AFTER THE 2004-2005 HURRICANE SEASONS.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Models last week called this, front stalling out front over the GOM, with tail end spinning something up

Front is still in North Central Texas and Central La. FYI, May not make it much further south?
Quoting Grothar:


Who has the time?
You gro
right just want to put this out there

this was my forecast cone from late last night in colour




and this is mine now the cone has shifted abit N and has a more N track at the end of the run also extended for an extra 24 hours

(tracks on Jamaicas S coast and track NW between Grand Cayman and its sister islands then up into Cuba then towards Fl and turns back WNW towards NE GOM coast warning no colour



I don't have much confidence with this cone due to the fact that 94L is not offically TD9 yet I am waiting for advisory to come out and forecast cone given
3409. kwgirl
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right just want to put this out there

this was my forecast cone from late last night in colour




and this is mine now the cone has shifted abit N and has a more N track at the end of the run also extended for an extra 24 hours

(tracks on Jamaicas S coast and track NW between Grand Cayman and its sister islands then up into Cuba then towards Fl and turns back WNW towards NE GOM coast warning no colour



I don't have much confidence with this cone due to the fact that 94L is not offically TD9 yet I am waiting for advisory to come out and forecast cone given
Good afternoon all. I haven't read everything yet, but you can believe that this storm will make it WKC. It is our traditional Labor Day hurricane, even if it comes before or after Labor Day. LOL We always get a scare and sometimes the reality of a storm. The first time I looked at it I knew it was coming my way.
Headed towards RNC?