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94L a threat to the Lesser Antilles; Gordon a hurricane; Helene hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

A large tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night (Invest 94L) is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, and is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and is over waters of 27.5°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis. This morning's 8:15 am EDT ASCAT pass caught the east side of 94L, and showed a partial surface circulation. Satellite images show just a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and I expect the earliest that 94L could develop into a tropical depression would be Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will gradually warm from 27.5°C to 28.5°C over the next four days, as 94L tracks westwards towards the Lesser Antilles. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. The storm should maintain a nearly due west track through Monday night, to a point near 50°W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of 94L may be able to pull the storm more to the northwest, as suggested by the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the NOGAPS model, and by three members of the GFS model ensemble forecast (Figure 2.) However, the models have been trending more towards a solution where this trough is not strong enough to influence 94L's path. This scenario will be more likely if 94L takes its time to develop, since a weaker storm will be smaller and shallower, and less likely to respond to the trough passing to the north. Our two best performing models, the GFS and ECMFW, both take 94L through the Lesser Antilles. The ECMWF, which predicts that 94L will stay weak and not develop, is faster, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The GFS model is slower, bringing 94L to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday as a hurricane. The models have shown poor run-to-run consistency in both the timing and the track of 94L, so it is difficult to assess which land areas might be most at risk, and when. A database of historical probabilities of storms in the same location as 94L maintained by Dr. Bob Hart of Florida State University reveals that historically, 45% of storms in this location have eventually hit land, with Canada (13% chance) and North Carolina (15% chance) the most likely targets. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.


Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 17, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white.

Gordon becomes a hurricane
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon heads eastwards at 18 mph. Gordon became the third hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season at 5 am Saturday morning, and is sporting an impressive-looking eye on visible satellite loops. Gordon should be able to maintain hurricane status until Sunday, when wind shear will rise steeply to 30 - 40 knots, and ocean temperatures will drop to 25°C. The combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon to a strong tropical storm by the time it arrives in the Azores Islands Sunday night, but the storm will be strong enough to bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands. Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland. About 126,000 homes were without power after the storm in Northern Ireland and one injury was reported.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Gordon.

Helene makes landfall in Mexico
Tropical Storm Helene made landfall near 10 am EDT as a tropical storm near Tampico, Mexico, with 40 mph winds. Helene's formation on August 17 ties 2012 with 1933 for the 2nd earliest appearance of the Atlantic's eighth tropical storm. Helene's rains should remain south of Texas, but moisture from Helene may feed into a stalled frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and bring heavy rains to the northern Gulf Coast early next week.

I'll have a new post this afternoon, giving a quick global weather summary for July, the 4th hottest July in Earth's history.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

THE ERNESTO KINGDOM IS FINALLY AND OFFICIALLY OVER



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep082012.ren
FSTDA
201208181631
ECMWF has been really bad this year, pretty surprising
504. SLU
18/1745 UTC 13.5N 32.7W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

WTF? Too weak?
No consensus from EURO 12Z @ 120 hrs - weak system entering the eastern Caribbean...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

105 Mph - 970 MB Category 2... Gordon.


yes...I'll agree with you but knowing the NHC... Im not sure... maybe 90 or 100 mph...conservative like always
They always seem to under-cast the strenght of those north Atlantic storms. Chris is another example and good ol' Gord is putting on a show! beautiful eye!
looks like a wet tuesday morning for the panhandle of florida..with schools open
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't get me wrong, the ECMWF is an excellent model with track as it nailed Ernesto's track and every storm this year except Debby, but has issues with intensity, it either way overdone (as it was predicting Fiona in 2010 to hit Florida as a Category 5 for a few days) or way underdone (Ernesto being an open wave at landfall where it was really a Category 1 to name a more recent example.) This is just from my unprofessional standpoint at least.
Charleston S.C it was.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
They don't issue hurricane warnings on the Azores very often... although they are not highlighted on the NHC map...


Speaking of the Azores, I've read some info that indicates they used to be higher above sea level & that they & some other regions in E Atlantic could have been the fabled Atlantis of lore, when higher in elevation. One report from a sailing vessels Captain in 1800s told about finding a barren, harsh land where there previously was none out at sea plus some absolutely manmade artifacts upon going ashore -- land that was on no maps & has since been inundated again. Quite interesting.
Quoting SLU:
18/1745 UTC 13.5N 32.7W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

WTF? Too weak?

Curiouser and Curiouser......
Quoting icmoore:


Didn't do well with Debby either LOL everyone with the exception of a few kept saying she will be making that left turn soon it's a Texas storm.


Here's Debbie's final model average error to compare. Just as bad..
The trend is your friend

Quoting pottery:

Curiouser and Curiouser......


Stay off those mushrooms.
POSS T.C.F.A.
XXL/INV/94/XX
MARK
12.86N/31.33W
Quoting Grothar:


You're a fast learner. :)


Thanks. It helps to study blobularity as a hobby.
The central atlantic has proven to be a storm destroyer this season- so far- but conditions will be favorable once it enters the western atlantic .
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The trend is your friend


I'll go with that !
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't get me wrong, the ECMWF is an excellent model with track as it nailed Ernesto's track and every storm this year except Debby, but has issues with intensity, it either way overdone (as it was predicting Fiona in 2010 to hit Florida as a Category 5 for a few days) or way underdone (Ernesto being an open wave at landfall where it was really a Category 1 to name a more recent example.) This is just from my unprofessional standpoint at least. It does a lot better with intensity with fully developed tropical cyclones.

I remember that! lol
Earl ripped her to shreds.
Quoting Grothar:


Stay off those mushrooms.

Can I use the Hookah, then?
Quoting Skyepony:


Here's Debbie's final model average error to compare. Just as bad..


LOL CMC out preformed the official forecast!
This is one of those times where you sit down and actually look at the patterns yourself and determine your own opinions instead of looking 100% at the models. They're there for guidance and forecasting aid, but the human brain will always be the best model. It's mid-August with favorable conditions even though some dry air is to the north. The SHIPS, ICVN, and LGEM intensity models are all showing this becoming a potent system by 120 hours. Every year usually has a major Cape Verde hurricane, even in 1997 and 2009 there was some. It's already at 50% as well with rotation becoming increasingly evident on the satellite loop. There is very little reason when all things considered that 94L shouldn't develop.
such a fat moisture field ahead of 94L.. it's going to have a juicy journey :)
hope it doesn't become too dangerous!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no reason at all for this not to develop that I can think of. It's already developing as we speak. 24 hours ago, this model was showing a major hurricane. Very poor consistency.


Models always do poorly with invests since they have so little data to work with. You'll see them all over the place until 94L at least becomes a TD, and I wouldn't put a lot of faith in them until it becomes a TS. It gets a little tiring to have every update causing some here to predict a storm that crushes the Islands...Florida...the east coast...take your pick.
Quoting icmoore:


Didn't do well with Debby either LOL everyone with the exception of a few kept saying she will be making that left turn soon it's a Texas storm.


Those missed turns on storms can get ugly...if people aren't prepared for them. TO prepare for them means gearing up for masses of people to move, etc. - not pretty in modern PC police minds if you make a mistake as it costs $$$.
Quoting Skyepony:


Here's Debbie's final model average error to compare. Just as bad..

And I don't think there is any reason to assume that any of the models is correct as yet, for 94L. Track, intensity, timing will all be better analysed if it becomes a TS soon.
12Z EURO @ 144hrs...
ATCF agrees that Gordon is, indeed, a Cat 2:

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 0, 1013, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, D,
Quoting pottery:

Can I use the Hookah, then?


Oh, you mean the bottle? Yeah, OK.
144 hours
532. SLU
317

WHXX01 KWBC 181834

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1834 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON (AL082012) 20120818 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 1800 120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.0N 37.5W 34.3N 34.3W 34.6N 30.9W 34.6N 27.8W

BAMD 34.0N 37.5W 34.6N 32.0W 36.3N 26.2W 39.2N 20.7W

BAMM 34.0N 37.5W 34.4N 33.0W 35.3N 28.1W 37.1N 23.8W

LBAR 34.0N 37.5W 34.3N 33.2W 35.5N 29.1W 37.7N 25.2W

SHIP 90KTS 91KTS 80KTS 69KTS

DSHP 90KTS 91KTS 80KTS 69KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 1800 120821 1800 120822 1800 120823 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 34.8N 25.3W 35.5N 21.0W 35.8N 16.0W 36.5N 11.7W

BAMD 43.0N 15.0W 50.5N .2E 54.2N 18.5E 52.7N 36.1E

BAMM 39.5N 19.8W 44.2N 10.6W 49.5N 1.7W 54.4N 9.6E

LBAR 41.7N 20.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 60KTS 37KTS 20KTS 15KTS

DSHP 60KTS 37KTS 20KTS 15KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 34.0N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 41.5W DIRM12 = 93DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 45.0W

WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT

CENPRS = 969MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 80NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting Grothar:


Oh, you mean the bottle? Yeah, OK.

You are too kind !
Thank you.
...Also, I am wondering why haven't UJMET, GFDL & HWRF jumped on to developing 94L - UKMET just have as I write this! Usually HWRF would be the first one to blow this kind of systems..
Un-nested HWRF has 94L as a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.

Since living in PR heaved been thru: Hugo, Hortense, Georges, Jeanne and last year queen "irene". Will Issac be next or will it go south of PR or nort east of the islands just like Earl did.
Quoting Chiggy:
12Z EURO @ 144hrs...


Yawn,over me.
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like a wet tuesday morning for the panhandle of florida..with schools open


Thank goodness we never had wet days when I went to school. We didn't even have school busses - we had to walk through the not wet weather. Kids today have it so tough. :)
539. VR46L
still searching for Isaac 144hr EURO 12z



But heres Isaac Newton

08L/H/G/C2
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's why I was saying earlier you just have to watch. You should already have your preliminary preps in place anyway [sure most Bajans have an idea of what to do]. Now the idea is to keep an eye on 94L to see if it does live up to the lofty predictions. If it passes near Barbados as a storm, it could bring anything from Tropical Storm force to Cat. 3 winds, but the lower level winds seem more likely at this point.

My thinking is that forewarned is forearmed. If you keep track of the storm's progress with NHC, it will give you a good idea of what's going on with it. But worrying about a storm that is not likely to affect Barbados before Friday is over-stressing. Better to use the information to help you make informed decisions.

If you stick around the blog, read the Doc's post FIRST, and remember that a lot of what gets posted in the comments is people's opinions about possible options for the storm. This information can be useful because it gives you an idea of the storm's potential to harm you and yours. However, very few in here are experts or professional mets. We have some talented amateurs, and they often have worthwhile thoughts to share. The rest of the blog comprises enthusiasts with varying levels of knowledge, understanding, experience, and skill. Some of us are [ahem] very enthusiastic....

This is a great place to hang out if you want to stay on the leading edge of information about various tropical cyclones and in particular their formation. HOWEVER, I strongly advise, Use With Caution - it's highly addictive...

I said this earlier... lol... we need a "this makes me unhappy" button... lol

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Un-nested HWRF has a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.


That's Helene ???????

Going to get Nasty, with a head-on collision between her and 94L......
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF agrees that Gordon is a Cat 2:

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 30, 30, 0,


I'm getting more of a feeling it might still be a Hurricane when it gets to the Azores in about 36-48 hours.
Quoting HrDelta:
I'm getting a real big feeling of deja vu here. In 2006, Hurricane Gordon caused Hurricane Warnings in the Azores.

In 2012, Hurricane Gordon is Hurricane Warnings in the Azores. Has there been another instance like this?
The previous 2 incarnations of Gordon both hit FL...

Are first OFFICIAL cat 2 of the year.It would be something to see a major that far north.That's highly unlikely though.
Quoting pottery:

That's Helene ???????

Going to get Nasty, with a head-on collision between her and 94L......


That's 94L lol

Helene dissipates 120 hours sooner.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no reason at all for this not to develop that I can think of. It's already developing as we speak. 24 hours ago, this model was showing a major hurricane. Very poor consistency.
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/1 2zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif"
This goes back to what I just posted earlier. These models are very bad with invest and will turn the strength of these potential future storms on and off like a light switch. as long as 94L is a invest the models are pure Garbage right now IMO.
548. SLU
978

WHXX01 KWBC 181839

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1839 UTC SAT AUG 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120818 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120818 1800 120819 0600 120819 1800 120820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 32.0W 13.9N 34.6W 14.6N 37.6W 15.2N 40.8W

BAMD 13.3N 32.0W 13.7N 34.7W 14.3N 37.2W 14.9N 39.7W

BAMM 13.3N 32.0W 13.9N 34.8W 14.5N 37.7W 14.9N 40.7W

LBAR 13.3N 32.0W 13.9N 35.8W 14.6N 39.6W 15.3N 43.4W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 55KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120820 1800 120821 1800 120822 1800 120823 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 44.8W 16.5N 53.7W 15.9N 62.3W 14.6N 68.8W

BAMD 15.5N 42.4W 16.6N 47.8W 17.0N 52.9W 17.8N 56.1W

BAMM 15.6N 44.1W 16.5N 51.5W 16.5N 59.2W 16.2N 65.8W

LBAR 16.0N 47.2W 17.1N 54.1W 14.9N 58.8W .0N .0W

SHIP 64KTS 84KTS 96KTS 100KTS

DSHP 64KTS 84KTS 96KTS 100KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 23KT

LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 23.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


$$

NNNN

Quoting sar2401:


Models always do poorly with invests since they have so little data to work with. You'll see them all over the place until 94L at least becomes a TD, and I wouldn't put a lot of faith in them until it becomes a TS. It gets a little tiring to have every update causing some here to predict a storm that crushes the Islands...Florida...the east coast...take your pick.


94L's predicted path/s changed dramatically since leaving Africa.
University of Wisconsin WRF

Crow Burgers, Crow....
494 aspectre: Gordon sure is pretty for a Cat.1

And this explains why: AL08 18August6pm 34.0n3.75w 90knots 969millibars
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That's 94L lol

Helene dissipates 120 hours sooner.
LOL, I realise that.
But it says 'Helene' on the header.... and there is nothing.
Gordon at 105mph, strongest storm of the season so far.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Are first OFFICIAL cat 2 of the year.It would be something to see a major that far north.That's highly unlikely though.

Only 2 hurricanes to become major north of 38 N



Quoting unknowncomic:
Crow Burgers, Crow....


What's been done to deserve crow lol.
AL, 07, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 987W, 25, 1009, TD
Just took a look at the GFS 12z and comparing it to previous runs it continues predict a track further west.

I remember last year, the GFS had Irene going up or near the spine of FL on at least 10 consecutive runs, maybe more. . . and we all know where it ended up. So, it is always a wait and see, but fun to track and speculate.

Can anyone tell me why (if it's true) the 00z and 12z are considered better and more accurate model runs?
If ATCF is right, Gordon's gone from 983mb to 969!
No change to 94L.

AL, 94, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 133N, 320W, 25, 1008, DB
The EUROPEAN model couple of run back was showed a strong system,so take it easy its just matter of time to see the consensus
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If ATCF is right, Gordon's gone from 983mb to 969!

The storm was flirting with 90 mph at 11 am AST, and 105 mph at 2pm AST. I honestly have no clue why Brennan was so conservative in the intermediate.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



I was just saying anyway...they should though... or the Azores do something themselves...whatever
Something many in the US are not used to thinking about... very hard to evacuate from islands...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What's been done to deserve crow lol.
Just projecting--all sorts of theories flying around about 94L.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The storm was flirting with 90 mph at 11 am AST, and 105 mph at 2pm AST. I honestly have no clue why Brennan was so conservative in the intermediate.

They're even more conservative than usual in the intermediates.

Euro is blank at 192 hours:



Not an impossible scenario, but probably unlikely. Models have been trending weaker though, at least short term.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF agrees that Gordon is, indeed, a Cat 2:

AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 0, 1013, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, D,
The strongest of the season.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, people here stated that winds might be now between 105 - 115 mph... still a very strong storm even if becomes extratropical...I think whether its tropical or not is as dangerous and strong


Well, people here who say things like that are wrong. It's doubtful that Gordon currently has winds anywhere near 115 mph, and it's going to weaken very rapidly over the next 24 hours. By the time it gets to the Azores, maybe 65 mph, and the Azores get winter storms wth winds in that range on a regular basis.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.4N 124.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
124.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE EIR, ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SSMIS IMAGES (180929Z
AND 180933Z) SHOW A NOTICEABLE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS CAN BE SEEN A FEW DEGREES NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER LARGER TUTT CELL RESIDES FURTHER TO
THE EAST, SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CAUSING CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE LLCC AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE SMALLER TUTT CELLS SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE WEST AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME CONNECTED TO THE LARGER TUTT CELL WHICH
RESIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY. CURRENTLY, AN 181334Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE FIELD
OF 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING
FROM 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EQUATORWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A POLEWARD
TURN THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They're even more conservative than usual in the intermediates.

Euro is blank at 192 hours:



Not an impossible scenario, but probably unlikely. Models have been trending weaker though, at least short term.

End of The Season....

LOL
Quoting Clearwater1:
Just took a look at the GFS 12z and comparing it to previous runs it continues predict a track further west.

I remember last year, the GFS had Irene going up or near the spine of FL on at least 10 consecutive runs, maybe more. . . and we all know where it ended up. So, it is always a wait and see, but fun to track and speculate.

Can anyone tell me why (if it's true) the 00z and 12z are considered better and more accurate model runs?

Yes,but when irene ,the storm changes the COC to other to the North of PR, i remember tha.....t is a difference system
Euro hates Isaac."No mean "I" storm this year" lol.
A Cat. 2 heading to the Azores? Interesting.

Bust season. :P
TO BahaHurrican let me tell,I AM always prepared for hurricane season so how dare you try to say that I not. As a matter of fact also ALL BARBADIANS know about hurricane preparations. I have not come here to hang out unlike some people I have other things to do your highness.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They're even more conservative than usual in the intermediates.

Euro is blank at 192 hours:



Not an impossible scenario, but probably unlikely. Models have been trending weaker though, at least short term.


They're only trending weaker because of land interaction from what I've seen.
If anybody cares, Tropical Storm Aletta's TCR is out.

Link
576. Gorty
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gordon at 105mph, strongest storm of the season so far.


Is that official?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
A Cat. 2 heading to the Azores? Interesting.

Bust season. :P


Wow, it looks very good. Hope that the Azores get prepared.
Quoting Gorty:


Is that official?



yes
There's still a while until advisory time, I wonder if they plan on doing a Special Update for Gordon.
18Z BAM suite trended more Westwards - IF that means anything at this stage.
Can anyone please explain why hasn't HRWF & GFDL jumped on 94L yet..? Nothing on the model pages!!
581. Gorty
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes

Ok thx. Hmm 80-105... RI?
Quoting leicesterlass:
Am surprised by people saying now is the time to make preparations for 94L. Would have thought anyone living in hurricane prone areas would be prepared year round.


in our part of Texas I can't imagine waiting until there is one in the Gulf to buy plywood for windows. It's already cut and labeled in one of the barns.

That said, knowing how on unprepared some still are in coastal SE Texas, I would say that many people on the upper east coast might be even less prepared. If those people wait until something is actually going on to lay up a few supplies it will be too late. It is just prudent to have emergency supplies on hand because no one knows what the weather, or mankind, will do.

In our part of NM it doesn't take much to interrupt the flow of supplies in. I don't mean preparing for the zombie apocalypse but having extra on hand is wise.
Quoting Felix2007:

Only 2 hurricanes to become major north of 38 N




What about Ophelia 11'?
Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 07, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 987W, 25, 1009, TD
That means Tropical Depression right when it says TD?
Quoting Gorty:


Is that official?


Yes that is official. Latest T-number is a 5.0. That is 90kts or 104 mph.
FROM THIS WEBSITE Link FL STATE UNIVERSITY OF METEOROLOGY...

there is a 14% chance of a landfalling storm...94L !
an Irene story part II?
Helene seems to falling apart fast...except for possible regeneration in W GOM to NE of its "core". I wonder if reblobulation will occur as the new energy comes down from up north.
Quoting Tropicalupdate:
That means Tropical Depression right when it says TD?

Yes, but that is for Tropical Depression Helene, not Invest 94L.
Southern Caribbean swell chart shows 40' waves at the Islands on Aug 23rd.....

I think I'll go with the Euro.
Dissipation is Good!
Quoting sar2401:


Well, people here who say things like that are wrong. It's doubtful that Gordon currently has winds anywhere near 115 mph, and it's going to weaken very rapidly over the next 24 hours. By the time it gets to the Azores, maybe 65 mph, and the Azores get winter storms wth winds in that range on a regular basis.


did you expect the Gordon to become a hurricane to start with???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's still a while until advisory time, I wonder if they plan on doing a Special Update for Gordon.

They should. The people in the Azores are expecting no more than a low end Cat 1, and now he's just 10 kts off from major hurricane status... They need to know about that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, but that is for Tropical Depression Helene, not Invest 94L.
oh sorry I thought that was 94L so winds at 5pm will be the same yes?
Quoting stormchaser19:

Yes,but when irene ,the storm changes the COC to other to the North of PR, i remember tha.....t is a difference system

Yes, that's for sure, but all systems and circumstances around them are different from one to the other. But those dozen or so nearly identical model runs had me a believer with Irene.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
THE ERNESTO KINGDOM IS FINALLY AND OFFICIALLY OVER



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep082012.ren
FSTDA
201208181631


His spin has almost stopped, think he gorged on to much moist air, ha. Now he'll just slowing waddle on north to hopefully take his leftover moisture to drought stricken regions.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody cares, Tropical Storm Aletta's TCR is out.

Link

Nobody cares.
Euro basically shows Ernesto part two which I'am not buying at the moment.I think at least a moderate or strong tropical storm.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Just took a look at the GFS 12z and comparing it to previous runs it continues predict a track further west.

I remember last year, the GFS had Irene going up or near the spine of FL on at least 10 consecutive runs, maybe more. . . and we all know where it ended up. So, it is always a wait and see, but fun to track and speculate.

Can anyone tell me why (if it's true) the 00z and 12z are considered better and more accurate model runs?


They contain upper air observations from the release of ballons at various sites around the world, although that does not help much in the middle of the Atlantic since no model cycles have upper air data from there (other than obs from airplanes).
Quoting bajanmet:
TO BahaHurrican let me tell,I AM always prepared for hurricane season so how dare you try to say that I not. As a matter of fact also ALL BARBADIANS know about hurricane preparations. I have not come here to hang out unlike some people I have other things to do your highness.

????
Quoting Chiggy:
No consensus from EURO 12Z @ 120 hrs - weak system entering the eastern Caribbean...
But in the ECar at 120 hours, regardless of intensity, IMO suggests a certain complicity...

Quoting Clearwater1:
Just took a look at the GFS 12z and comparing it to previous runs it continues predict a track further west.

I remember last year, the GFS had Irene going up or near the spine of FL on at least 10 consecutive runs, maybe more. . . and we all know where it ended up. So, it is always a wait and see, but fun to track and speculate.

Can anyone tell me why (if it's true) the 00z and 12z are considered better and more accurate model runs?
00Z and 12Z get direct data input. The other two are extrapolated.
Gordon's eye seems to be shrinking:

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nobody cares.

Hush.
Aletta who?.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's still a while until advisory time, I wonder if they plan on doing a Special Update for Gordon.

Maybe. For the Azores' sake.
605. Gorty
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Gordon's eye seems to be shrinking:



Its common for a hurricane's eye to shrink and grow and back and forth like that.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Aletta who?.

The first tropical storm of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They should. The people in the Azores are expecting no more than a low end Cat 1, and now he's just 10 kts off from major hurricane status... They need to know about that.


Absolutely they do!
It hacks me when experts clam up on REAL info simply because they are predicting something else to happen!
Quoting pottery:
Southern Caribbean swell chart shows 40' waves at the Islands on Aug 23rd.....

I think I'll go with the Euro.
Dissipation is Good!


What is the elevation of the islands?

Quoting BahaHurican:
Something many in the US are not used to thinking about... very hard to evacuate from islands...


well...otherwise to suffer the wrath of Gordon...
Euro has been trash all season GFS is king
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hush.

You hush.
94L is huge and impressive
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You hush.




both of you hush or i put you in time out lol



this kinding on that part
Oops, Stripling's new. Needs to clean up his grammar and/or get a proofreader before publishing NHC Discussion.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE ERN ATLC ALONG
27W...WITH A ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N27W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WAVE IS RACING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT...AND IS NOW FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN THIS FAST MOTION ACROSS THE ATLC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 27W-31W. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FORECAST OF THIS WAVE DURING THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND A MORE WWD TRAJECTORY INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS NOW SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

INTERESTS ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE ATLC.

Still, content is very good. Nice detail!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You hush.

Both of you hush and I'll hush.
Quoting Tazmanian:




both of you hush or i put you in time out lol



this kind on that part

OK Taz, for you.
(but I still think Cody should hush).

Helene shouldn't be classified anymore.

It's pathetic.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They should. The people in the Azores are expecting no more than a low end Cat 1, and now he's just 10 kts off from major hurricane status... They need to know about that.


Meteo France is monitoring

"HURRICANE GORDON 34.1N 38.6W AT 18/15 UTC, 983, MOVING EAST AT 16 KT, EXPECTED NEAR 35.0N 31.4W BY 19/12 UTC, THEN 36.1N 27.8W BY 20/00 UTC.

ACORES, IRVING : FROM 18/18 UTC TO 20/00 UTC AT LEAST : CYCLONIC 10 OR 11 LOCALLY 12 ( 75 KT ) WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER OF GORDON, GALE 8 OR 9 WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTER. SEVERE OR VIOLENT GUSTS."
I really want Ernesto tcr to come out I want to know if it was indeed a cat 2 at landfall.
Everyone is saying Gordon is a Cat 2... but on the NHC website it still says Cat 1???
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK Taz, for you.
(but I still think Cody should hush).

Helene shouldn't be classified anymore.

It's pathetic.



and you could be right


AL, 07, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 987W, 25, 1009, TD
Quoting allancalderini:
I really want Ernesto tcr to come out I want to know if it was indeed a cat 2 at landfall.


me too...it had an eye forming right after landfall..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Gordon's eye seems to be shrinking:



Why does that sound bad to me?

Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Absolutely they do!
It hacks me when experts clam up on REAL info simply because they are predicting something else to happen!


I do wonder, with how it jumped, if it could make Major. It would be extremely unlikely though. If it did, it might be a first in another regard. First Storm to be retired for damage to Europe.
Quoting Doppler22:
Everyone is saying Gordon is a Cat 2... but on the NHC website it still says Cat 1???



AL, 08, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU
Ihe 12z Euro is strange. Maybe its waiting for more development.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16
3:00 AM JST August 19 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 18.1N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.7N 125.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting Doppler22:
Everyone is saying Gordon is a Cat 2... but on the NHC website it still says Cat 1???


ATCF update which is fed through from the NHC says Category 2. 90% of the time it is accurate.
627. JLPR2
So... is anyone wondering why we don't have a floater yet for 94L? I am. XD

Quoting Tazmanian:



and you could be right


AL, 07, 2012081818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 987W, 25, 1009, TD

30mph TD...
Should degenerate to a remnant low by tonight. I already think it has, but the NHC disagrees with me.
Quoting Doppler22:
Everyone is saying Gordon is a Cat 2... but on the NHC website it still says Cat 1???


It's a cat 2.

All the intensity models even initialized it as a cat 2, and some keep intensifying it for 12 hours.

I got no clue why the official is 20mb and 20 to 25mph weaker than the raw data...
Quoting JLPR2:
So... is anyone wondering why we don't have a floater yet for 94L? I am. XD




still too far out for a floter likey get one by time it gets too 50W
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a cat 2.

All the intensity models even initialized it as a cat 2, and some keep intensifying it for 12 hours.

I got no clue why the official is 20mb and 20 to 25mph weaker than the raw data...


because the raw data came out after the last official update

at 5pm, this will be upgraded
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a cat 2.

All the intensity models even initialized it as a cat 2, and some keep intensifying it for 12 hours.

I got no clue why the official is 20mb and 20 to 25mph weaker than the raw data...

The ATCF updated a while ago. 105mph, 969mb at 5pm or earlier if they feel the need to.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK Taz, for you.
(but I still think Cody should hush).

Helene shouldn't be classified anymore.

It's pathetic.
Helene is sad it has surpass Jose in the wall of pathetic systems.
94L is a Tropical Storm if I ever seen one.
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a cat 2.

All the intensity models even initialized it as a cat 2, and some keep intensifying it for 12 hours.

I got no clue why the official is 20mb and 20 to 25mph weaker than the raw data...


Maybe because it's raw data and hasn't been verified yet? It's happened before.
Quoting JLPR2:
So... is anyone wondering why we don't have a floater yet for 94L? I am. XD

94L is huuuuge.Definitely can tell it has a lot of moisture to work with.
638. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



still too far out for a floter likey get one by time it gets too 50W


As soon as they are visible in the CATL they get floaters.
Maybe they are busy...
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's a cat 2.

All the intensity models even initialized it as a cat 2, and some keep intensifying it for 12 hours.

I got no clue why the official is 20mb and 20 to 25mph weaker than the raw data...


If those models about intensification are correct, it would probably make Category 3.
Gordon intensified faster than I thought, so it's in a different intensity predictor than I thought it would be.

Based on it's current position, the maximum theoretical intensity is somewhere between 950mb and 960mb.
641. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
94L is huuuuge.Definitely can tell it has a lot of moisture to work with.


Should take a while for the LLC to tighten up due to its size, but it sure looks better today. With all that moisture it might clean the entire CATL of dust.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is one of those times where you sit down and actually look at the patterns yourself and determine your own opinions instead of looking 100% at the models. They're there for guidance and forecasting aid, but the human brain will always be the best model. It's mid-August with favorable conditions even though some dry air is to the north. The SHIPS, ICVN, and LGEM intensity models are all showing this becoming a potent system by 120 hours. Every year usually has a major Cape Verde hurricane, even in 1997 and 2009 there was some. It's already at 50% as well with rotation becoming increasingly evident on the satellite loop. There is very little reason when all things considered that 94L shouldn't develop.


And who or what created the models?

The models are only agreed to by the individuals brain when it suits them. At least that seems to be generally true on this blog.


94L structure looks pretty good for a TW.
Quoting bajanmet:
TO BahaHurrican let me tell,I AM always prepared for hurricane season so how dare you try to say that I not. As a matter of fact also ALL BARBADIANS know about hurricane preparations. I have not come here to hang out unlike some people I have other things to do your highness.
I have to say that in no way did I attempt to imply that Barbadians are unprepared; in fact the converse is true. As a Bahamian, I look on Barbadians as brothers and sisters in the storm, and more so than anybody else you all know what it is to have the storm "come out of nowhere" and hit your land. As a Bahamian who has weathered the storm, and who has exerienced the helping hand of Barbadian electrical and telecommunications workers helping get things back together, I have to express thanks and appreciation from one storm-threatened land to another.


As for the bit about "hanging out", I was actually attempting to offer the hand of friendship to a fellow Caribbean dweller. This blog is great place for information and community, but sometimes it can be challenging to figure that out because of the general "noise of conversation". I hoped I had invited you to participate freely, at your own pace. I offer sincere apologies if it seemed I meant otherwise.

Additionally, many bloggers here use this blog as much or as little as they feel comfortable with. Some can only look in for a short period. Others can stay for long periods. Either one is good. I myself have had a couple weeks of vacation, which allows me to stay in here as long as I like. My point was that the experience can be quite exhilarating and enjoyable, to the point that it may become hard to leave.

If you feel my post was intended to offend, I'm sorry. But, as many bloggers here can attest, I'm no princess, nor do I pretend to be. I'm just a pretty ordinary person with an avid interest in tropical weather.

Quoting JLPR2:


Should take a while for the LLC to tighten up due to its size, but it sure looks better today. With all that moisture it might clean the entire CATL of dust.
The wave behind it won't have a problem with dry air like the past few waves this year.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK Taz, for you.
(but I still think Cody should hush).

Helene shouldn't be classified anymore.

It's pathetic.

Worse then Jose...

THE GFS IS THE ODD AND CRUEL ONE HERE
Quoting JLPR2:


As soon as they are visible in the CATL they get floaters.
Maybe they are busy...



94L Floater
Quoting JLPR2:


Should take a while for the LLC to tighten up due to its size, but it sure looks better today. With all that moisture it might clean the entire CATL of dust.

ASCAT from earlier showed a few weak west winds to the south of the center of circulation. Given its improved structure since that time, it wouldn't surprise me if the low was closed.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
University of Wisconsin WRF

If this thing pass thru the butterfly island....Puerto Rico better watch this out. OUCH.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm sure Cantore already has his flight booked for NYC late next week.... It could happen tomorrow? Just like the episode describing Katrina? Only differnece is that this episode was not a lost epiode and did a good job of showing what would happen to NYC with a Major making landfall. I don't think the people of NYC would take it seriously and that would be devistating.
Quoting Articuno:

Worse then Jose...


Try posting a smaller version of that image. The big one you posted is making my computer lag.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They contain upper air observations from the release of ballons at various sites around the world, although that does not help much in the middle of the Atlantic since no model cycles have upper air data from there (other than obs from airplanes).


Don't forget ship reports. They still play an important role in information gathering, especially in the north and central Atlantic.
94L funktop imagery
Quoting VR46L:
216 hrs euro I give up searching for Isaac



But here is Isaac Singer

Hes looking northern islands....
All I know is The Azores better evacuate soon because Hurricane Gordon will be moving much faster when it moves farther north and closer to the Azores.
Gordon, RAW up to 5.7!!!!


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2012 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 33:55:45 N Lon : 37:01:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 957.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 55.6 degrees

************************************************* ***
Quoting Tazmanian:



still too far out for a floter likey get one by time it gets too 50W
are you drunk? they had one for ernesto at 40w. this could be threatening as early as wednesday.
Quoting LargoFl:


In addition to the consensus, there's two or three member models on their that just make the pit of my stomach ache looking at them.

If the consensus track is close to true, it's hard to imagine this thing not making category 4 or 5 at some point, because once it passes Cuba and Hispaniola, regardless of the exact track, it's going to be over water with a 150kts intensity predictor...

Obviously max intensity is only reached with good conditions and low shear, but just look at any SST anomaly map and it's nuts. Not to mention, the last SHIPS output I read had almost no shear at 120 hours.

I just don't know what to think at this moment, because the consensus is actually west of the member(s) that bring the storm all the way to western Cuba or even NOLA.

I think that would be a devastating scenario for a lot of people, and is like 3/4s of David plus half of Camille storm track...just scary stuff.

Where do yall think Helene is headed next??
957.4mb    WOW!!!
Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Weakening Flag was on on the last update on Gordon.
Quoting pottery:

Can I use the Hookah, then?


The Mexican Browns sold in the store in Amsterdam were quite nice thank you.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have to say that in no way did I attempt to imply that Barbadians are unprepared; in fact the converse is true. As a Bahamian, I look on Barbadians as brothers and sisters in the storm, and more so than anybody else you all know what it is to have the storm "come out of nowhere" and hit your land. As a Bahamian who has weathered the storm, and who has exerienced the helping hand of Barbadian electrical and telecommunications workers helping get things back together, I have to express thanks and appreciation from one storm-threatened land to another.


As for the bit about "hanging out", I was actually attempting to offer the hand of friendship to a fellow Caribbean dweller. This blog is great place for information and community, but sometimes it can be challenging to figure that out because of the general "noise of conversation". I hoped I had invited you to participate freely, at your own pace. I offer sincere apologies if it seemed I meant otherwise.

Additionally, many bloggers here use this blog as much or as little as they feel comfortable with. Some can only look in for a short period. Others can stay for long periods. Either one is good. I myself have had a couple weeks of vacation, which allows me to stay in here as long as I like. My point was that the experience can be quite exhilarating and enjoyable, to the point that it may become hard to leave.

If you feel my post was intended to offend, I'm sorry. But, as many bloggers here can attest, I'm no princess, nor do I pretend to be. I'm just a pretty ordinary person with an avid interest in tropical weather.


I have never known you to be objectionable to anyone here.
I think the person misread your words.
Hopefully they will be back and post more.
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Where do yall think Helene is headed next??




its dead
Quoting pottery:

I have never known you to be objectionable to anyone here.
I think the person misread your words.
Hopefully they will be back and post more.


I concur with Pottery; I have been on this blog for over 12 years and have never known this person to be objectionable; in fact, she has always been a person to provide good information on what goes on in the islands to us mainlanders.
Quoting ncstorm:
94L funktop imagery


Funky
Quoting pottery:

I have never known you to be objectionable to anyone here.
I think the person misread your words.
Hopefully they will be back and post more.


It's pretty embarassing to have to say this in public....but....I agree with Pottery...
Quoting RTSplayer:


In addition to the consensus, there's two or three member models on their that just make the pit of my stomach ache looking at them.

If the consensus track is close to true, it's hard to imagine this thing not making category 4 or 5 at some point, because once it passes Cuba and Hispaniola, regardless of the exact track, it's going to be over water with a 150kts intensity predictor...

Obviously max intensity is only reached with good conditions and low shear, but just look at any SST anomaly map and it's nuts. Not to mention, the last SHIPS output I read had almost no shear at 120 hours.

I just don't know what to think at this moment, because the consensus is actually west of the member(s) that bring the storm all the way to western Cuba or even NOLA.

I think that would be a devastating scenario for a lot of people, and is like 3/4s of David plus half of Camille storm track...just scary stuff.

There are a couple of other possibilities right now that I will not mention until a few days from now. Only because of how terrible it could be.