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93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Met Service of Jamaica website

June 25, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Area of Low Pressure/Tropical Waves near Jamaica.

Comment
Another Tropical Wave is expected to pass over the island during the course of the day.

TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning…Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the island.
This Afternoon… Showers and thunderstorms continue across most places.
Tonight… Cloudy with lingering showers across most parishes.

Maximum Temperatures expected today:
Kingston…31 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay…32 degrees Celsius.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat/Sun… Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, especially during the afternoons.
Mon… Cloudy with some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the island.

Regionally… A Tropical Wave enters the basin as the Low Pressure moves further west.

rar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kinda has me on pins and needles since many storms tend to rapidly intensify in this area. Maybe not this time of year but everyone has been saying conditions are more like July and Auguat.
It's definitely a possibility.
4003. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
don't forget, there is a natural lag between TD (or TS or Hurr) conditions and TD designation.


Just wondering if you ever check your mail? LOL
Quoting fmhurricane2009:
Hey pensacola storm, Clemson vs South Carolina today, CWS
GO TIGERS!


GO TIGERS!
Clemson does a great deal of hurricane generated wind speed data collection and analysis in their engineering dept. They had numerous anemometers set up throughout the Pensacola area during Ivan.
extreme you do realize that 93L has convection beginging to wrap into the closed surface low???,because anyone who can analize sat loops properly can see it happening and can see a northerly drift as well!!
Quoting RecordSeason:
3968:

Then we are screwed for sure.

BP just said yesterday that they need 6 or 7 days to evacuate all their personnel and assets 6*24 = 144, which is already 12 to 16 hours past the end of the model runs...

By the time an upgrade is issued, it will be far too late oil cleanup crews to evacuate.
I agree. The NHC just can't give them 7 days with a system like this... the forecasting is not at that level yet for an unformed storm. I think they've realized that since they can't do that, they definitely don't want to have them evacuate unnecessarily.
Quoting Enforcer001:
miami took the 4000th post. he deserves an adoption
Ummm... No.
4009. Patrap
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon reporting already, looks like they took off.


NOAA 42 is a Oil Slick NOAA Run.

The HH from Biloxi arent flying till 1700 UTC or so..

TEAL 70 is the Designation flight
Quoting RitaEvac:
There's ridge building into TX and temps are supposed to heat up near 100 degrees this weekend in Houston. This ridge will then shift east and block 93L? push it W/NW and go around the weakness of the ridge next week?


where do u live?
Dvorak T-Number and Corresponding Intensity[2] T-Number Winds (knots) Minimum Pressure (millibars)
Atlantic NW Pacific
1.0 - 1.5 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858
Note: The pressures shown for the NW Pacific are lower as the pressure of that whole environment is lower as well.
ascat pass this morning is showing that a closed low is trying to form with a tropical wave off the african coasst. this will compete with the area of disturbed weather northeast of the leewards as being designated 94L
93L is organizing rather quickly now..there's no doubt in my mind we have a tropical depression when the recon gets down there later..alex could be born early saturday morning..the sst are very warm and it would not take to much for us to have a hurricane on our hands by sunday with the shear decreasing....ssp have been falling all morning not a good sign..we just have this big problem we don't know where it's going..

104

WHXX01 KWBC 251241

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1241 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.5N 82.5W 17.0N 84.3W 17.7N 86.1W 18.4N 87.8W

BAMD 16.5N 82.5W 16.7N 84.3W 17.0N 86.2W 17.4N 88.0W

BAMM 16.5N 82.5W 16.9N 84.4W 17.4N 86.2W 17.9N 87.8W

LBAR 16.5N 82.5W 16.9N 84.3W 17.7N 86.3W 18.8N 88.3W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 55KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100627 1200 100628 1200 100629 1200 100630 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.0N 89.3W 20.4N 92.0W 21.3N 94.1W 21.8N 96.4W

BAMD 17.8N 89.5W 18.9N 91.6W 19.7N 93.3W 20.9N 95.7W

BAMM 18.4N 89.3W 19.9N 91.4W 21.0N 93.3W 21.9N 95.5W

LBAR 20.1N 90.1W 23.0N 92.8W 26.2N 94.5W 29.3N 94.2W

SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 78KTS 77KTS

DSHP 37KTS 36KTS 38KTS 37KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 82.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 81.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 80.3W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


What time are the HH going out? When should we start receiving reports back from them??
Quoting Dropsonde:
I agree. The NHC just can't give them 7 days with a system like this... the forecasting is not at that level yet for an unformed storm. I think they've realized that since they can't do that, they definitely don't want to have them evacuate unnecessarily.


I think they will begin Evac as immediately following Depression Classification.
93L is frustrating me. As I said yesterday, develop or die.
I'd rather Alex hit Mexico and spare the US?

BTW, I live in Texas, but well away from hurricane alley.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Its East, Its West ..

East, West
East, West ..

Wabbit season, duck season
Wabbit season, duck season


Quoting Patrap:


NOAA 42 is a Oil Slick NOAA Run.

The HH from Biloxi arent flying till 1700 or so..
Oh, another couple hours to go. Thanks.
whats up junky????,ready for a possible chase next week???
4022. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


NOAA 42 is a Oil Slick NOAA Run.

The HH from Biloxi arent flying till 1700 or so..

Hey Pat, Teal 70 goes wheels up at 1030EDT
Quoting Enforcer001:
I'd rather Alex hit Mexico and spare the US?

BTW, I live in Texas, but well away from hurricane alley.
Um no. There are still people in Mexico.
4024. Patrap
Quoting Tropicaddict:
What time are the HH going out? When should we start receiving reports back from them??


The Aircraft Recon in Located on the Left side of the NHC Home Page.

One to bookmark maybe.
Quoting stillwaiting:
extreme you do realize that 93L has convection beginging to wrap into the closed surface low???,because anyone who can analize sat loops properly can see it happening and can see a northerly drift as well!!


I'm just going by the satellite agencies the NHC use.
looks like the DSHP intensity model stole some of the CMC's cocaine...
Quoting Patrap:


The Aircraft Recon in Located on the Left side of the NHC Home Page.

One to bookmark maybe.


Thanks! Does it decipher it for you? :)
4028. tramp96
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Um no. There are still people in Mexico.
Not during working hours
4029. Patrap
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
Quoting tramp96:
Not during working hours



Now thats funny
tropicalatlantic.com/recon is a great website for recon data.

it decodes it for you as well
350


URNT10 KWBC 251321

97779 13214 60267 83500 30200 10010 10581 /3218

RMK NOAA2 WXWXA DEEPWATER08 OB 01 KWBC


SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 25/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 25/1430Z

D. 17.5N 83.0W

E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

A. 26/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

C. 26/0200Z

D. 18.0N 84.5W

E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Jeff Masters is probably not going to update the blog until after recon investigates to know whether or not to speak about 93L or TD#1. Gonna be a long day...
morning all, while I think we will see 93L become a TD, I am not overly impressed with the convection this morning
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Um no. There are still people in Mexico.


I was flipping through stations the other day and I could've sworn that someone on Fox News said Mexico had aliens. Fox News is a joke though, so take it with a grain of salt.
4038. centex
We should get a new blog update soon, maybe JM can explain better what is going on. NHC sure thinks it's going to develop soon.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Um no. There are still people in Mexico.


Just ignore him. I was warned about him. He's a troll.
4040. Walshy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Um no. There are still people in Mexico.



I like your contributions to this blog. I think others take it for granted.

The HHs posted a message on facebook saying todays mission at this point appears that they are going to go ahead and fly it.
4042. hercj
Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z

Uh Pat thats the wrong one.
Quoting Enforcer001:

how cute, the 13 year old standing up taking the politically correct route...parents most likely liberals.

anyways, I'll go with a 100% chance recon finds a TD today...if I'm wrong, here's my .357 magnum miami...i'll let you pull the trigger, it's got 1 bullet in it.


Well he is correct, there are people in Mexico. I on the other hand say screw political correctness and say I'd rather it him them than me.
I don't even think 93L's center w/make landfall on the yucatan,stronger TC entering the GOM IMO....
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
The HHs posted a message on facebook saying todays mission at this point appears that they are going to go ahead and fly it.


HH has a facebook page??? Hmmm.
4032.
I'm a Republican and I think your an idiot by that statement. People are people, we're all part of humanity.
word has it we will have TD 1 by 5Pm today all the NHC needs is the west wind confirmation i just asked a friend who has a friend the works for the NHC
Quoting tramp96:
Not during working hours


Nice !!
Quoting extreme236:


Just ignore him. I was warned about him. He's a troll.
I was warned too. Guess it's that time to "POOF!".
TD 1 at 5 PM...100% chance
Quoting Enforcer001:

ummmmmmmmm no, i beg to differ...the fact that I was right about 92L dying, i'm going to be right about 93L developing on friday, the fact that I'm always right and I make people eat crow...seems to make people jealous enough to call me a troll. I laugh at the prime stupidity. I'm currently ranked #1 in my class of 853 at stevens high school...going into sophomore year. so yeah, i'm really quite the dumb***.


Wow, high school. LOL
Quoting CaneWarning:


HH has a facebook page??? Hmmm.

Yup...lots of good updates.


329

TCCA23 KNHC 250632 CCA

STDWCA



SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES...CORRECTION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0615 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010



CORRECTION



SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...CARIBBEAN WAVE



MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

25/0615 UTC 15.6N 80.0W 270/12 5.4 IN 3.4 IN





LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...



DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.1 TO 1.1 IN 0.4 TO 3.4 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.6 IN 0.6 TO 3.2 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.0 IN 0.0 TO 0.6 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.0 IN 0.0 TO 0.6 IN





...LEGEND...



SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM

(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)



DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME

COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT



LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY

POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS

OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE



MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM

IN DEGREES AND KNOTS



MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF

RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED

ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART



LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR

THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE



RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR

DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE

SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)

INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM

(1 IN = 25.4 MM)



FORECASTER NELSON



NNNN


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was warned too. Guess it's that time to "POOF!".


Yup.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow, high school. LOL
LOL.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yup...lots of good updates.


I guess I need to head on over to Facebook and hit the old LIKE button.
i think 93 L makes it right through the channel missing the yucatan on it's way into the gom..lord help us all the oil will do a number on lots of people from fla to western la..im worried about the oil getting into lake pontchatrain...
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Here's a topical question:

Is there a limit to the number of names you can have on your "POOF" list? lol
Todays mission is scheduled for 1730Z. Guess I should cut the grass and clean out the gutters now so i can get back inside by the time they get to 93L.
HH are off:
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow, high school. LOL


Top of his class freshmen year...that's a hard year (sarcasm flag: on). Anyone can say whatever they want on a blog whether it's true or not.
Top story on CNN is about tropical weather and the gulf coast...
Quoting Enforcer001:

ummmmmmmmm no, i beg to differ...the fact that I was right about 92L dying, i'm going to be right about 93L developing on friday, the fact that I'm always right and I make people eat crow...seems to make people jealous enough to call me a troll. I laugh at the prime stupidity. I'm currently ranked #1 in my class of 853 at stevens high school...going into sophomore year. so yeah, i'm really quite the dumb***.
Maybe, just maybe, Steven High School has 853 dumb***es in attendance. But hey, I'm impressed with your number 1 ranking, nevetheless!
Quoting AllStar17:
HH are off:
Lol, you just made that graph for nothing. HH take off at 17:00 UTC, the one that just took off is headed to investigate the oil spill.
post 4052 you really need to get a life and stick to the tropics and lay off people
Quoting AllStar17:
HH are off:

First off the dont fly out of Tampa. That could be the NOAA bird but I doubt it.
Quoting stillwaiting:
scratch that,proabably a TD now,however if I know the NHC they'll wait until recon goes out later and tehn will declare it TD1,it could be strong enough for a TS Alex to be named tonight as it heads for the western tip of cuba!!!!


Wow! You think it'll track that far east instead of going over the Yucatan Peninsula? Similar path to Charley?
4066. AllBoardedUp 9:44 AM EDT on June 25, 2010

LMAO!!!!!!! Popcorn time!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, you just made that graph for nothing. HH take off at 17:00 UTC, the one that just took off is headed to investigate the oil spill.


? Why would they do that?
4074. A4Guy
Enforcer001 = *POOF*

buh-bye!
any new info on 93L ?
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

First off the dont fly out of Tampa. That could be the NOAA bird but I doubt it.


Well......whatever.......something is off. LOL.
Quoting CaneWarning:
93L is frustrating me. As I said yesterday, develop or die.




it is develping,proabably a TD now!!!,today will by far be the most interesting/fun day of the TC season....whats happening in the eastpac,well its just a matter of time before the same thing gets going in the atlantic(cat5's)...this years gonna be a duzy,I have a feeling 93L's going to take a charley type track,intensity,I have no idea....
Todays Mission was scheduled to fly at 1430Z or 17 minutes ago.
Quoting Enforcer001:

look who's talking...a middle schooler...yes, i know high school sucks...there's a lot of thugs, lot of drugs...lots of immaturity. everyone has to have a ****ing boyfriend or girlfriend at this age. i'm perfectly fine with being single at the moment until at least 11th grade because i know i will find somebody between then and the first 2 years of college...i have my life planned out...unlike 93L...and unlike you kids...


Is this a joke?
Quoting AllStar17:


? Why would they do that?
No idea.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Is this a joke?
ROFLMAO!
Quoting AllStar17:


? Why would they do that?

Lots of planes are flying to track the oil movement so they can try and predcit where and when it hits the shoreline.
Recon wont be going off until about Noon
Quoting txag91met:
BAMs further west.


I never said EVERY model. Consensus seems more west. Sorry for the semantic flub.
93L could go NE right now and go over Cuba and completely miss Florida going out to sea...that would dissapoint Floridians.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Is this a joke?


Most likely. He's probably really a 40 year old man living in his mom's basement.
Quoting iluvjess:
Todays Mission was scheduled to fly at 1430Z or 17 minutes ago.
No, it was scheduled to fly at 1700 UTC to 2100 UTC.
1730Z is Time on Station.
4090. 7544
Quoting iluvjess:
Todays Mission was scheduled to fly at 1430Z or 17 minutes ago.


yeap some one did say at 1030 am est could be wrong tho whos keeping track on the flight for the blog with updates
4091. Walshy
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


Report and move on. I would hate the good to fall in the hole too. No wonder our experts are avoiding the blog right now.
Quoting extreme236:


Most likely. He's probably really a 40 year old man living in his mom's basement.
LMAO.
Good Morning.......I had a monster of a day at work yesterday starting at 1:00 PM until late and was not able to recuperate until just now. Can someone give me a brief recap of what happened between yesterday afternoon and this morning in the Carribean?......Most of the convection basically shifted to the South?....Thanks.
4095. hercj
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

First off the dont fly out of Tampa. That could be the NOAA bird but I doubt it.

NOAA 42 took off on an oil spill mission about half hour ago from Macdill.
Quoting txsweetpea:
any new info on 93L ?


you will soon have all the information you need once the hh gets into the carribean
4097. jpsb
Quoting CaneWarning:


Well he is correct, there are people in Mexico. I on the other hand say screw political correctness and say I'd rather it him them than me.
Yeah, I am with you there. I would not wish a bad storm on anyone but better them then me. Even more so with all that oil in the gom right now.
Quoting iluvjess:
Todays Mission was scheduled to fly at 1430Z or 17 minutes ago.

Unless I am doing my math wrong it is only 1350 so you still have 40 minutes to go.
4099. Delsol
Quoting CaneWarning:


HH has a facebook page??? Hmmm.



What is the facebook page called?
The latest Canadian model has changed its pattern late next week and takes a 981 low into southern Texas after hanging out in the Gulf for a while.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html

(links don't seem to be working today.
Got a feeling this is the last time we'll ever see Enforcer.
Quoting iluvjess:
Todays Mission was scheduled to fly at 1430Z or 17 minutes ago.


1430Z = 10:30 AM EDT
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, it was scheduled to fly at 1700 UTC to 2100 UTC.


Please post your source because NHC page says fly at 1430Z. Thanks.
4104. ssmate
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Got a feeling this is the last time we'll ever see Enforcer.
It was a good run.
Quoting Enforcer001:
http://www.nisd.net/parentconnection/

username: deathmalice21
password: goodgreat

see for yourself. the class rank doesn't show up... but the grades are there.


Wow, I am soooooooooooo impressed. LOL
Quoting Enforcer001:

look who's talking...a middle schooler...yes, i know high school sucks...there's a lot of thugs, lot of drugs...lots of immaturity. everyone has to have a ****ing boyfriend or girlfriend at this age. i'm perfectly fine with being single at the moment until at least 11th grade because i know i will find somebody between then and the first 2 years of college...i have my life planned out...unlike 93L...and unlike you kids...


It's really not all that hard.. I just finished my freshmen year and it's not all that it's made out to be.. Just find the right friends, stay away from all the drugs, and study more than once a month and you're set to go... Probably gets tougher down the road, but idk yet.
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010


Thanks for the update, Chief!
4108. Patrap
Just took Jr to BAnd Camp at Loyola University Uptown NOLA and the Crude odor here is the worst Ive smelled yet.

*NEW* Graphics Update
5am EDT Update




*NEW* Graphics Update
5am EDT Update


**Sorry for the typo of "Acapulco"**
Quoting iluvjess:


Please post your source because NHC page says fly at 1430Z. Thanks.

YOu are def correct but your math is off. It is only 1350Z...still got 40 minutes or so.
4093. StormW 9:49 AM EDT on June 25, 2010

Also, one Met question for Storm. Is the ITCZ basically synonimous with the sub-equatorial ridge in the Summer, or, is a persistent ridge than always maintains a narrow "layer" between the ITCZ and the TUTT?...Thank you Captain.
4113. JamesSA
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Here's a topical question:

Is there a limit to the number of names you can have on your "POOF" list? lol

I think we might find out. I can't believe how many I've had to add already this year and we haven't even has a named Atlantic storm yet.

Where do these people come from, and what kind of a life do they have if the only thing they can think of to do is stir up trouble on a WEATHER BLOG of all places?
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010


great job as always StormW
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

YOu are def correct but your math is off. It is only 1350Z...still got 40 minutes or so.


Oops. Sorry, still working on the first cup of Jo. Thanks
Think about it, if we do get TD 1 today, how dead on was the ECMWF?
Enforcer001 YOUR ABOUT TO BE REPLACED WITH EMPTY SPACE JUST LIKE WHATS IN YOUR HEAD
4118. JamesSA
I see our monster 93L is still grinding away, trying to become a storm. ;-)
Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow, I am soooooooooooo impressed. LOL


Those are some easy classes.. I had to deal with actual AP classes this year as a freshmen. My pet peeve was my one B in AP US Government and Politics. My AP exam in that course was.. iffy. Still waiting on those results.
4121. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
















Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com
Quoting stillwaiting:
whats up junky????,ready for a possible chase next week???


Yes and no. We're leaving on 7/1 for St. Augustine then on 7/3 to Savannah for a few days. I hope Alex doesn't throw a big dilemma my way or a beating to the Gulf Coast!
Good day Storm!
Thanks for the Synopsis
4124. hercj
Quoting StormW:
Here ya go!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 9:50 A.M. JUNE 25, 2010

That is as good as its going to get for the next few hours anyway. Great job Senior Chief.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Think about it, if we do get TD 1 today, how dead on was the ECMWF?


Pretty much dead on. Now the question is, what track does the ECMWF take it?
Sorry for getting off topic. Back to 93L!
Quoting pensacolastorm:


GO TIGERS!
Clemson does a great deal of hurricane generated wind speed data collection and analysis in their engineering dept. They had numerous anemometers set up throughout the Pensacola area during Ivan.


boooo! Go Cocks!
look like recon has started

Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

Non-Tasked Mission Data (for at least one product)
Updated on our site 2 minutes ago
Quoting iluvjess:


Please post your source because NHC page says fly at 1430Z. Thanks.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

just a note! HH for 93L will go out in about 1 hour according to our favorite weather channel.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Wow! You think it'll track that far east instead of going over the Yucatan Peninsula? Similar path to Charley?




yea,but not quite as far east as charley,but simular,if 93L develops quickly and is a hurricane(not saying its going to be)as it approaches the GOM it'll get pulled poleward,I'm thinking it might go right up the channel,also note that 93L's LLC appears to be a bit further ENE offshore,about 150 miles from the coast IMO...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



that was wednesdays', not the latest one
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes and no. We're leaving on 7/1 for St. Augustine then on 7/3 to Savannah for a few days. I hope Alex doesn't throw a big dilemma my way or a beating to the Gulf Coast!


I love St. Augustine.
4135. Patrap
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
look like recon has started

Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

Non-Tasked Mission Data (for at least one product)
Updated on our site 2 minutes ago


Thats the NOAA Plane on the Oil Invest today...
4136. 7544
94l soon the blob behind 93l ?looks good
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



That is yesterday and you also highlighted the section of when it will be in the storm. Look 3 or 4 lines up and that is the launch time.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Pretty much dead on. Now the question is, what track does the ECMWF take it?
Through the Yucatan as a TS, stays a TS while over the Yucatan, then goes into the BOC, makes landfall in Mexico as a strong TS.

Based on 00z ECMWF.
4140. BFG308
Quoting JamesSA:

I think we might find out. I can't believe how many I've had to add already this year and we haven't even has a named Atlantic storm yet.

Where do these people come from, and what kind of a life do they have if the only thing they can think of to do is stir up trouble on a WEATHER BLOG of all places?


*Leaves Lurker Mode*

Because we're logical people and people saying irrational things and being ridiculous in our discussion is bothersome. Trolls get off on that.

Any attention is good attention when you are a losar IRL.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


That is yesterday and you also highlighted the section of when it will be in the storm. Look 3 or 4 lines up and that is the launch time.
My bad, picked the wrong date. But I don't think it is important when it launches but rather when it is inside the system. Regardless, launch is at 1430 UTC today.
I think we have Alex and Bonnie on our way
93L:

Tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has become better organized overnight with the formation of a 1005mb surface low off the NE coast of Honduras. Convection has been increasing near and to the east of this surface center and overall the system appears to be slowly organizing.

Track:

Various solutions continue to play out in the guidance as is common when a well defined closed surface center is not present. CMC, EURO, NOGAPS, and GFS all indicate a system heading for Texas or Mexico, while the GFDL and HWRF show the system strongly recurving over the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. Feel the GFDL and HWRF and too far east and too deep with the Midwest trough%u2026not to mention they have the system moving NW starting right now which is not the case. EURO has been fairly consistent in taking a tropical storm toward S TX and the CMC (well it is up to its usual mischief of a strong storm heading for S TX and N MX). GFS and NOGAPS bring a weak and disorganized system toward the western Gulf coast. Coordinate HPC/NHC tracks bring a closed surface low into the western Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. We no reason as to not split the difference in the guidance with more weight toward the southern and western tracks and less toward the GFDL and HWRF suggesting a potential threat from Louisiana westward to Mexico.

Intensity:

With the exception of the robust CMC, all other guidance keeps the system weak or as a tropical storm. The current likely track suggest a impact on the Yucatan over the weekend which will result in weakening and disorganization. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appears favorable for intensification as water temperatures are warm and upper level winds light. Looks good for a tropical storm at some point and this falls in line with most guidance keeping the system weak, but large over the western Gulf.

Impacts:

Would likely need to start ramping things up in the seas and wind department, but without a defined system of yet, nor any official track from NHC%u2026will wait. All guidance suggest impacts are still at or just beyond 5 days out (Tuesday of next week). Could probably bring seas up over the outer waters starting Monday and spreading them toward the coast on Tuesday, but will hold off on suggesting TS force conditions just yet. Incoming weak front will also be sliding southward early next week and this feature combined with a potential incoming tropical system spells lots of rainfall along the entire TX coast.

Residents are urged to keep updated on the weather over the weekend and be prepared to take any necessary actions by early next week to prepare for the landfall of a tropical system.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Through the Yucatan as a TS, stays a TS while over the Yucatan, then goes into the BOC, makes landfall in Mexico as a strong TS.

Based on 00z ECMWF.


It seems most of the mets in Tampa agree with that track. Once again on the morning news they stated that Tampa shouldn't worry at all about 93L.
the further nw 93L GOES THE WORSE IT'S GOING TO BE FOR THE CENTRAL GOM..the trough in the rockies is going to play a huge part in where 93L goes...this is crucial and a really bad situation developing..ssp continue to fall and the recon will fine TD1 down there when it gets there later..we need 93L TO GO OVER THE YUCATAN AND DISRUPT IT SO IT WONT HAVE ENOUGH TIME WHEN THE TROUGH GRABS IT TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE..A TROPICAL STORM IS JUST AS BAD THOUGH BUT WE WILL DEAL WITH THE LESSER OF THE 2 EVILS...
Multiple -80C cloud tops can be noted. Also 93L looks to be moving towards the NW/NNW very slowly now.

if this would and i am certainly not claiming it will, become a hurricane in the Caribbean.....then very North this would come and Mississippi to Florida is a player for sure!
4150. Patrap
NOAA 41 is the Oil Flight outta McDill

Teal 70 is the Tasked HH Flight outta Biloxi.


Quoting CaneWarning:


It seems most of the mets in Tampa agree with that track. Once again on the morning news they stated that Tampa shouldn't worry at all about 93L.
You should definitely watch it, but shouldn't be "concerned" about it at this point in time. Once it gets into the BOC or GOMEX we will have a much better handle on where it may go.
well all4hurricanes I thinking more of TS/HU ALEX and STS/TS BONNIE
Quoting Enforcer001:

you and tazmanian are both robots to be honest.


HurricaneSwirl...finally someone with more than 5 brain cells...thanks for the support and i wish you the best of luck...the consensus is 11th grade is the hardest year by far... but i hear 10th grade is slightly easier than 9th.

as for the rest of the blog...i simply cannot believe that people can be so touchy...so many people get their panties in wads and jump to conclusions based on impulse...just proves their immaturity...like my mother who needs psychiatric help, immature and touchy...
but yer just a goof and thats a go
Quoting Enforcer001:

look who's talking...a middle schooler...yes, i know high school sucks...there's a lot of thugs, lot of drugs...lots of immaturity. everyone has to have a ****ing boyfriend or girlfriend at this age. i'm perfectly fine with being single at the moment until at least 11th grade because i know i will find somebody between then and the first 2 years of college...i have my life planned out...unlike 93L...and unlike you kids...


AllBoardedUp is absolutely correct. Maybe MiamiHurricanes09 will come to your school when he gets out of middle school and usurp your standing as king of brains. If nothing else he'll bring up the average IQ of your school. If you're number one you must attend a "special" school.
It's gonna have a large circulation and that is not gonna allow it to spin up too fast folks
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well all4hurricanes I thinking more of TS/HU ALEX and STS/TS BONNIE


yea looking at that area NE of the Islands, I can see us getting a TS or STS out of it in a few days if it persists
Quoting TampaSpin:
if this would and i am certainly not claiming it will, become a hurricane in the Caribbean.....then very North this would come and Mississippi to Florida is a player for sure!
The stronger it is the more curve towards the east you will see.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes and no. We're leaving on 7/1 for St. Augustine then on 7/3 to Savannah for a few days. I hope Alex doesn't throw a big dilemma my way or a beating to the Gulf Coast!


Two of my favorite cities! (Well, obviously for one...)

I spent nearly every summer of my childhood in St Augustine. We had a house in Crescent Beach, which to me still seems like paradise.
Quoting StormW:


ITCZ


If I read it correctly, and the paper does not mention the subequatorial ridge at all, then the ITCZ is a different entity from the subequatorial ridge? (Basically the sub-trop ridge is the persistent high-pressure axis between the ITCZ to the South and the TUTT to the North............?)....Thanks again...I'll leave you alone now.
4162. Patrap
For the Lub of Logic..

Please quit playing with the Ignorance and quoting it.

See post 4032 for the "NEW" way...
Quoting Enforcer001:


Wait, you were making fun of someone being 13, yet your in high school yourself??? :|

I think I need some headon.
~~~~~~~~~~


Anyway, this isn't the best cruise weather in the Caribbean:



93L is pretty darn big.
Celia is an annular hurricane
im tellin u its a tx storm lol
Patrap, large circulation of this system is not gonna allow for fast spin up, You and I need to watch this one.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You should definitely watch it, but shouldn't be "concerned" about it at this point in time. Once it gets into the BOC or GOMEX we will have a much better handle on where it may go.


Tampa mets aren't the best so take it for what is worth. Tampa as well as the whole GOMEX should worry. This trough and potential strength of 93L is key. Weak goes west strong goes more east.
Quoting kanc2001:


boooo! Go Cocks!


LOL!
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Celia is an annular hurricane


About as textbook as you can get...

Quoting Hurricanes101:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/1135Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


1800Z is the FIX time
Quoting SavannahStorm:


About as textbook as you can get...



funny thing is Darby might be too lol
Quoting stillwaiting:




yea,but not quite as far east as charley,but simular,if 93L develops quickly and is a hurricane(not saying its going to be)as it approaches the GOM it'll get pulled poleward,I'm thinking it might go right up the channel,also note that 93L's LLC appears to be a bit further ENE offshore,about 150 miles from the coast IMO...


Sounds like you're wishcasting Alex toward you! J/K! Interesting system...keeping everyone guessing thus far!
These are the definitions for the fields A-G of the Aircraft Reconnaissance Plan of the Day.

Summer Plan
A. Fix/Invest Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Forecast Position
E. Time on Station
F. Altitude(s) on Station
G. Remarks (if needed)

Winter Plan
A. Track/Control Point/Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Drops Required/Added Positions
E. Altitude/Expiration Time
F. Remarks (if needed)

Quoting hurricanejunky:


Sounds like you're wishcasting Alex toward you! J/K! Interesting system...keeping everyone guessing thus far!


He's got a point!
4178. Patrap
Tampa mets aren't the best


Sheesh,,I hope dey aint a lurking.

I tell yas,,the comments here sometimes make ya wanna ,well...use the features we have
i dont really see celia as an annular hurricane...there have been much more annular hurricanes than that especially in the east pacific...daniel...flossie at peak intensity...etc. celia's eye is too small and the banding is too evident, celia is not an annular hurricane...will likely weaken today
Reconnaissance aircraft will be leaving to investigate 93L at 1430 UTC. Current UTC is 14:13 UTC.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Tampa mets aren't the best so take it for what is worth. Tampa as well as the whole GOMEX should worry. This trough and potential strength of 93L is key. Weak goes west strong goes more east.


Actually, Tampa mets are pretty good, especially when it comes to the tropics. I personally know of one Tampa TV met that does lurk here. :)
Err...I need to use that ignore feature more to resist that urge to argue.

850mb vorticity becoming better defined.
Quoting btwntx08:
im tellin u its a tx storm lol


I hope I can give you this one as I have a bad feeling on just how strong this may get.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Err...I need to use that ignore feature more to resist that urge to argue.

850mb vorticity becoming better defined.


Whoa, it is. The stronger area of the vorticity is better concentrated as well.
4185. Walshy
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea looking at that area NE of the Islands, I can see us getting a TS or STS out of it in a few days if it persists

that aoi ne of puerto rico has a zero percent chance to develop...it's heading straight into the TUTT
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Celia is an annular hurricane
Doesn't it look beautiful.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Actually, Tampa mets are pretty good, especially when it comes to the tropics. I personally know of one Tampa TV met that does lurk here. :)


They shouldn't say Tampa is in the clear tho.
LARGE CIRCULATIONS DONT BODE WELL FOR INTENSE SYSTEMS
4190. Patrap
Quoting Jeff9641:


They shouldn't say Tampa is in the clear tho.


Tampa iz always in the Clear..LOL
Two things to note. 93L's circulation becoming more well-defined. Also, the new disturbance by the northern Antilles is improving with vorticity as well. One thing sparking convection with the Antilles AOI is the diffluent flow aloft. Kind of surprised to see that there could be a low at the surface considering hostile upper level conditions.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


About as textbook as you can get...

Amazing to look at!!!
4194. BFG308
How do those vorticity plots get put together? Is there a link somewhere?
Quoting Jeff9641:


I hope I can give you this one as I have a bad feeling on just how strong this may get.

LOL, come July into August you'll be wishing you took Alex and gave him the current one...
Quoting Walshy:
It worked huh?
Quoting SavannahStorm:


About as textbook as you can get...



absolutely beautiful!
i"ll be back in 4 hours when 93L is classified the first tropical depression of the 2010 season..right now with the trough deepening in the rockies i would say the central gom somewhere between lafayette and pensecola has to pay very close attention to this..alex will will start this hurricane season out with a bang..i pity the the problems the central gom wil have with the oil..it realy doesn't matter if alex lands on the la coast we still going to have to deal with oil for lake pontchatrain...the best case scenario for us is alex passes to the east of biloxi but that makes it worse for the fla beaches oil will start to roll there way..the bottom line its a no win situation when it comes to the oil...it will be better for la the oil will be pushed south away from us if this track materializes..
4201. quante
Thanks Storm for the useful update.

As for the rest of you, way to early to be drinking, especially you middle school and high school kids.
4202. myway
Quoting Enforcer001:
i dont really see celia as an annular hurricane...there have been much more annular hurricanes than that especially in the east pacific...daniel...flossie at peak intensity...etc. celia's eye is too small and the banding is too evident, celia is not an annular hurricane...will likely weaken today


So you read the NHC public statement on the storm. Cooler waters=weakening
Quoting Patrap:


Tampa iz always in the Clear..LOL


Since 1921!! Doesn't get much clearer than that!
Enforcer001

If you violate any of the general or specific terms applicable to Wunderground Data Feed, WUI has the right to terminate your use of the Site and the Data Feed and to take appropriate legal actions against you.
I see a similarity!!!

93L:


Tropical Depression Sixteen (2008):
Acually enforcer the natinal hurricane center is giving it a 10% chance,and some of the models do develop it.
Quoting hurrkat05:
i"ll be back in 4 hours when 93L is classified the first tropical depression of the 2010 season..right now with the trough deepening in the rockies i would say the central gom somewhere between lafayette and pensecola has to pay very close attention to this..alex will will start this hurricane season out with a bang..i pity the the problems the central gom wil have with the oil..it realy doesn't matter if alex lands on the la coast we still going to have to deal with oil for lake pontchatrain...the best case scenario for us is alex passes to the east of biloxi but that makes it worse for the fla beaches oil will start to roll there way..the bottom line its a no win situation when it comes to the oil...it will be better for la the oil will be pushed south away from us if this track materializes..

what intensity do you think alex will be at landfall?
Quoting BFG308:
How do those vorticity plots get put together? Is there a link somewhere?


Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Enforcer001

If you violate any of the general or specific terms applicable to Wunderground Data Feed, WUI has the right to terminate your use of the Site and the Data Feed and to take appropriate legal actions against you.


Well he already mentioned he had a different name before. Obviously already got banned.
Quoting StormW:


To the best of my knowledge, it's a separate entity.


Thank You.....They "seem" to be one in the same when you read some of the literature/charts but I think that the ridge is sandwiched between the ITCZ and the TUTT when they "tandem" rise in the Summer above 10N.......
Quoting myway:


So you read the NHC public statement on the storm. Cooler waters=weakening
Annular hurricanes have a way of persisting through cold waters and high shear which is why there is some doubt over Celia's rapid decline. I think Celia is Annular is has a large eye for her size and no spiral bands at all and she is almost perfectly circular. Even if she doesn't meet all the requirements for an annular storm she can still act like one like Epsilon in 2005
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Acually enforcer the natinal hurricane center is giving it a 10% chance,and some of the models do develop it.

what models
Quoting quante:
Thanks Storm for the useful update.

As for the rest of you, way to early to be drinking, especially you middle school and high school kids.


That was fantastic!LOL!!! I gotta get back to work.
Quoting hurrkat05:
i"ll be back in 4 hours when 93L is classified the first tropical depression of the 2010 season..right now with the trough deepening in the rockies i would say the central gom somewhere between lafayette and pensecola has to pay very close attention to this..alex will will start this hurricane season out with a bang..i pity the the problems the central gom wil have with the oil..it realy doesn't matter if alex lands on the la coast we still going to have to deal with oil for lake pontchatrain...the best case scenario for us is alex passes to the east of biloxi but that makes it worse for the fla beaches oil will start to roll there way..the bottom line its a no win situation when it comes to the oil...it will be better for la the oil will be pushed south away from us if this track materializes..

no way no jose this is gonna be weaker so more wnw
4216. Patrap
The military Needs mets in All Branches.

Some of our younger posters 17 and older can consider that route maybe,..

A free Education and you get to Serve America and tell your Kids and Grandkids great stories to boot.
A win win for everyone
What models are reliaable at this time with 93L or do we need to wait until it is more north in the gulf?
enforcer if it goes through the channel and misses the yucatan the next question will be how much shear in the gom..i believe the shear will let up a great deal and the sst are plenty warm..so i think alex could easily reach hurricane force by monday if this shear slackens up and like i said this deepening trough in the rockies will be crucial to wear alex goes...
Quoting btwntx08:
Quoting hurrkat05:
i"ll be back in 4 hours when 93L is classified the first tropical depression of the 2010 season..right now with the trough deepening in the rockies i would say the central gom somewhere between lafayette and pensecola has to pay very close attention to this..alex will will start this hurricane season out with a bang..i pity the the problems the central gom wil have with the oil..it realy doesn't matter if alex lands on the la coast we still going to have to deal with oil for lake pontchatrain...the best case scenario for us is alex passes to the east of biloxi but that makes it worse for the fla beaches oil will start to roll there way..the bottom line its a no win situation when it comes to the oil...it will be better for la the oil will be pushed south away from us if this track materializes..

no way no jose this is gonna be weaker so more wnw


His track is decent, dude.... anywhere between Houston and Panama need to watch this... but more West is also possible.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, you just made that graph for nothing. HH take off at 17:00 UTC, the one that just took off is headed to investigate the oil spill.


Correct - it was the 06Z run that was scrubbed, the 18Z run is still on. They will be looking for COC around 17.5N,83W.
4224. Buhdog
South Florida way ahead of schedule YTD as far as rain is concerned.

Link
4225. cg2916
A. 25/1800Z - FIX/INVEST TIME
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST - MISSION IDENTIFIER
C. 25/1430Z DEPARTURE - TIME
D. 17.5N 83.0W FORECAST - POSITION
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z - TIME ON STATION
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT - ALTITUDE(S) ON STATION
G. (None) - REMARKS (if needed)
Both jim williams,and mark sudduth have different opinons on invest 93l.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yup...lots of good updates.


Really?? Wow ...I need to find that.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Since 1921!! Doesn't get much clearer than that!
Clear from hurricanes and clear complacency in Tampa.
4229. aquak9
enforcer- altestic

you're gonna end up banned

quit with the personal attacks


I agree and it's wreckless to say Tampa is in the clear. Let's put it this way
A tropical system moving north hundreds of miles to the west of Tampa can still cause severe weather associated with outerrain bands.

Quoting Jeff9641:


They shouldn't say Tampa is in the clear tho.
Quoting Enforcer001:
epsilon was not annular...the last annular hurricane in the atlantic was isabel in 03

KOTG, go back to school.


He said it could act like one, like Epsilon acted like one. Not that it was one.

He's just trying to make a point that he thinks Celia has a chance of weakening slower compared to other storms in similar conditions. No hard feelings.
Quoting Enforcer001:
epsilon was not annular...the last annular hurricane in the atlantic was isabel in 03

KOTG, go back to school.
see ya bye have a nice life catch you later adios
Recon hasn't started yet for 93L, but for the BP oil spill there is a recon
the water is all pink in the GOM with water temp around 88F TO 92f
Will the NHC issue oil surge forecasts this season?? Just another 97 degree day on the bayou!!
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Both jim williams,and mark sudduth have different opinons on invest 93l.


Where do you see this? I like Mark. I met him at a Lowe's once.
Quoting wfyweather:


His track is decent, dude.... anywhere between Houston and Panama need to watch this... but more West is also possible.

iam not seeing this that strong and why qouote me zack and u dont post other stuff besides what i post also ppl dont like stormkat
Enforcer it was the gfs and wfr models.I think their was another one but I need to go check.
Quoting txsweetpea:
What models are reliaable at this time with 93L or do we need to wait until it is more north in the gulf?


Wait til the system strengthens; most of the models are wonky with weaker features. Expect to see some serious variance in the models as this one ramps up some
Quoting Buhdog:
South Florida way ahead of schedule YTD as far as rain is concerned.

Link



We are 2 in C FL but June as been on the dry side so if we do get a tropical system we will be alright.
Recon supposed to take off at 1430 UTC. Current UTC time is 1430 UTC.
Isn't it a little early for the trolls to be out? LOL
Quoting hurrkat05:
enforcer if it goes through the channel and misses the yucatan the next question will be how much shear in the gom..i believe the shear will let up a great deal and the sst are plenty warm..so i think alex could easily reach hurricane force by monday if this shear slackens up and like i said this deepening trough in the rockies will be crucial to wear alex goes...

so you don't see alex reaching hurricane intensity before it gets in the gulf? i still think there is a chance especially if it gets upgraded to a ts late tonight or tomorrow morning...the tchp in the nw caribbean is between 80 and 140 joules...more than that existed during wilma's famous rapid intensification phase...i see alex becoming a hurricane in the south gulf and intensifying to cat 2 before hitting louisiana.
4244. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

iam not seeing this that strong and why qouote me zack and u dont post other stuff besides what i post also ppl dont like stormkat


What you're seeing...er hoping...is that it hits you.
4032. Enforcer001
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.


Quoting Floodman:
Isn't it a little early for the trolls to be out? LOL


its never too early
The southwest coast of Florida is also South Florida and we are way below normal for June,
Check your stats first

Quoting Buhdog:
South Florida way ahead of schedule YTD as far as rain is concerned.

Link
Quoting IKE:


What you're seeing...er hoping...is that it hits you.


agreed
4249. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon supposed to take off at 1430 UTC. Current UTC time is 1430 UTC.


Probably takding off right now.
93L may be the ugliest TD I have ever seen if it does in fact get classified lol

needs to wrap up more
Quoting Floodman:
Isn't it a little early for the trolls to be out? LOL


Too bad Taz isn't here to spay them.
Canewarning It was on his website called hurricanetrack.com.He makes very interesting points,as for the other one it's called hurricanecity.com.
I suggest everyone to stay on topic and behave properly, admin out on full force right now.
Morning all. Just checking in on 93L. Still wait and see mode. I hope that in addition to the emergency plans the Gulf areas have in place, they have thought of ways to clean up the oil that would be brought inland via a storm or storm surge. What a mess that would be. Hopefully it doesn't play out.
Recon plan for tomorrow


000
NOUS42 KNHC 251415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 25 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 18.5N 86.5W
E. 26/1630Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES OVERLAND.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Quoting Hurricanes101:
93L may be the ugliest TD I have ever seen if it does in fact get classified lol

needs to wrap up more



Trust me, its beautiful compared to a lot of Tropical storms even.
Quoting cg2916:
A. 25/1800Z - FIX/INVEST TIME
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST - MISSION IDENTIFIER
C. 25/1430Z DEPARTURE - TIME
D. 17.5N 83.0W FORECAST - POSITION
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z - TIME ON STATION
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT - ALTITUDE(S) ON STATION
G. (None) - REMARKS (if needed)


Taking off right about now ... should get center fix around 2 pm EDT. The 26 00Z model runs will be interesting.
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...CELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...FURTHER
WEAKENING EXPECTED ...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 118.1W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
4259. Ossqss
So will the trough pull it north or will the high push it west? Which one ultimately steers this puppy? ª¿ª
Quoting IKE:


What you're seeing...er hoping...is that it hits you.

thats not funny not really saying it will hit here but it may end somewhere on the tx coast but here
HURRICANE DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...DARBY BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 101.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


its never too early

Correction: it's always too early. :P
Quoting cyclonekid:
I see a similarity!!!

93L:


Tropical Depression Sixteen (2008):


Well, they're both in the W Caribbean.. and they both have clouds... but TD Sixteen of 08 (future Paloma) looked much better organized.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Canewarning It was on his website called hurricanetrack.com.He makes very interesting points,as for the other one it's called hurricanecity.com.


That's right, I forgot about his website. I have a few of his videos.
4265. unf97
Good morning everyone!

Looks like it is going to be a long day on the blog as the Reconnaisance aircrafts are in route to investigate 93L.

93L has ceertainly taken its sweet time to organize, but satellitte imagery definitely now indicates that the system has a definite presentation of banding, and the Hurricane Hunters may indeed find our season's first TD later today.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
93L may be the ugliest TD I have ever seen if it does in fact get classified lol

needs to wrap up more
No that goes to danny respectfully.
Geez nevermind
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I suggest everyone to stay on topic and behave properly, admin out on full force right now.


That's good advice 24/7, not just when admins are obviously around. Makes their job easier if we all mind the culture.
so is the HH coming from Keesler Air Force Base or from E Carib
enforcer the only way i see alex reaching hurricane force when its through the yucatan channel...if it does go across the yucatan it will break up signicantly and it will be a less serious threat..it will basically be a rain maker for texas..i know the trough will start to influence alex by sunday ..im looking for a nw movement then a gradual turn towards the nnw to n late sunday..if this happens then we will have serious problems to deal with winds rain and oil..
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon plan for tomorrow


000
NOUS42 KNHC 251415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 25 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 18.5N 86.5W
E. 26/1630Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES OVERLAND.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




Interesting that they mention if it survives over land...
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ok who got Darby drunk? Looks like he is looking for something lol

LOL!
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html

93L not too shabby IMHO
new blog!!!!!!!!!!
maybe invest 94L SOON.
aqua you are a very nice person...and very understanding...i have trusted you through many years not to turn on me now...i know you won't do this to me...just know that when i get married i hope my woman remains sugar sweet like you by the time she is your age.

oh and HurricaneSwirl, TD 16 did not become Paloma, TD 17 did
Quoting CaneWarning:


Interesting that they mention if it survives over land...


referring to the Yucatan.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well, they're both in the W Caribbean.. and they both have clouds... but TD Sixteen of 08 (future Paloma) looked much better organized.
T.d 16 didn't develope into paloma due to interaction with land.T.d 17 developed into paloma.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well, they're both in the W Caribbean.. and they both have clouds... but TD Sixteen of 08 (future Paloma) looked much better organized.


TD 16 didn't become Paloma. It was a separate system.
I remember there is a way to have a nearly live look at the hurricane hunters readings in Google Earth. I can't remember if it was a separate add-on or if it was a feature already embedded. Anyone know what I am talking about?
to me 93L is looking good right now
4282. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
New Blog !!
93L is like a soccer match that lasts forever...In the end it's a tie 0-0.

Or like the Wimbledon match that lasted over 11 hours, with the final set going 70-68. During that set, duece, atvantage, duece, advantage, duece advantage.... eventually, someone had to win.

I'm tired of watching...someone email me when it dies or comes to life.

Quoting Enforcer001:
aqua you are a very nice person...and very understanding...i have trusted you through many years not to turn on me now...i know you won't do this to me...just know that when i get married i hope my woman remains sugar sweet like you by the time she is your age.

oh and HurricaneSwirl, TD 16 did not become Paloma, TD 17 did


OK, now this one was funny.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
T.d 16 didn't develope into paloma due to interaction with land.T.d 17 developed into paloma.
Quoting extreme236:


TD 16 didn't become Paloma. It was a separate system.


Oh, really? I don't remember that at all. Thanks for the correction!
4287. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
The Xtreme Weather
Quoting portcharlotte:


I agree and it's wreckless to say Tampa is in the clear. Let's put it this way
A tropical system moving north hundreds of miles to the west of Tampa can still cause severe weather associated with outerrain bands.



Was saying it as a historical observation. Obviously anywhere along the West Coast of FL is vulnerable. Here in Ft. Myers we were in the clear since 1960 (Hurricane Donna) before Charley pounded the area. Go figure. Obviously being in the clear since 1921 means nothing about future possibilities. Stating the obvious here but necessary it seems.
The NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing? Would someone please enlighten me. I still don't see sufficient spin associated with what I can only guess is the center of convection. I don't profess to be an expert, but unless there is a different view which I haven't seen, I just don't see it. Is there a loop which shows some low level spin? I'm not downcasting, I really want to know.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon plan for tomorrow


000
NOUS42 KNHC 251415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 25 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 18.5N 86.5W
E. 26/1630Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES OVERLAND.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




If they got the COC estimates right, 93L will travel 244 miles on a heading of 286, i.e. 10 mph, and if that heading holds will hit the Yucatan somewhere around 19 lat.

That would give it nearly a day over the Yucatan (220 miles), but SHIP still has it emerging in the upper Eastern BOC as a Cat 1. I'll be REAL interested in those 00Z model runs.
4292. KORBIN
Can someone point on a Map where the "L" actually is cause this thing is like playing pin the tail on the tropical wave.
4293. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting KORBIN:
Can someone point on a Map where the "L" actually is cause this thing is like playing pin the tail on the tropical wave.
lol true
Quoting Floodman:


Wait til the system strengthens; most of the models are wonky with weaker features. Expect to see some serious variance in the models as this one ramps up some


LOL! Wonky...I forgot about that technical term. Mornin' to ya Flood, how's it goin'?
4296. hercj
They are in the air.
11:00 am National Hurricane Center Update
**GRAPHICS UPDATE


Hey, KORBIN
I'm wondering the same thing. (Where's the beef"L")?
Quoting portcharlotte:
The southwest coast of Florida is also South Florida and we are way below normal for June,
Check your stats first



Even if we were ahead of schedule, good! We have some brutally dry wildfire seasons down here (this past wet El Nino winter/spring not withstanding) so anytime we can get ahead of the water game it's a great thing!
4300. KORBIN
What's funny is my wife asked me- "What are you looking at?" I said babe i am not even sure any more can you take a look and see if you see any "L". So what does she do, actually points to the L in the work Loop. FM Weather Life.
4301. will45
4032. Enforcer001
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.

Is that something new this year lol?
My gut tells me 93L is not Alex. It will slam into mexico tomorrow and die. May become TD though. Wow @ EPAC too.


0_0