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93L slow to develop, but bringing heavy rains to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010

A modest region of intense thunderstorms (Invest 93L) is over the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola. This disturbance has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. We don't have any buoys near 93L, but pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm are not falling. A pass of the ASCAT satellite over the Central Caribbean at 9:45 pm EDT last night revealed a modest wind shift associated with 93L, but nothing at all close to a surface circulation. Top surface winds seen by ASCAT were 15 - 20 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. The atmosphere over the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, which should aid development of 93L. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The main negative for 93L continues to be lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. I speculate that it is this lack of spin that contributed to the loss of much of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity last night. The storm is now going through a cycle where it is building another respectable mass of heavy thunderstorms, and the increased inflow of low-level air that will feed these thunderstorms will likely enhance 93L's spin today. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L on Wednesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf. Given all this model reluctance and the current disorganization of 93L, I give the storm a low (less than 20% chance) of becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 6 knots (7 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. early next week. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the oil spill region. This is the solution of the Canadian GEM model. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF model. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and some of the models predict this shear will remain over the Gulf over the next 7 - 10 days. However, other models predict that this band of high shear will retreat northwards and leave the Gulf nearly shear-free. The long-term fate of 93L remains very murky. My main concerns at this point are the potential for 3 - 6 inches of rain in Haiti over the next two days, and the possibility 93L could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 250
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 250 lives. The heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern Chinese provinces had killed 199 and left 123 missing as of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, a Ministry of Civil Affairs statement said. Damage is estimated at $6.2 billion. Floods and landslides in neighboring areas of Myanmar (Burma) have claimed at least 63 lives in the past week.


Figure 2. Paramilitary policemen help evacuate residents from Wanjia village of Fuzhou City, East China's Jiangxi province, June 22, 2010. Days of heavy rain burst the Changkai Dike of Fu River on June 21, threatening the lives of 145,000 local people. Local authorities have ordered immediate evacuation, and the army and paramilitary police have begun conducting rescue operations. Image credit: Xinhua.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) The latest on 93L
2) Which model is the most reliable?

Today's show will be 30 - 40 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3501. aquak9
mickey mouse = two blobs, like mickey mouse ears

Recon or no? getting some mixed signals herer to say the least.
Quoting Jeff9641:


No it didn't! Let me guess this spin came out of no where S of Haiti LOL.


not all...
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I was on Dauphin Island this weekend. Lots of activity and needed a pass to get on the west end. Only saw a few tar balls though. Oil will be in the trees.

But wouldn't that be better? If a storm washes all the oil into tar way up above the water line it will have way less environmental impact as far as Life goes. You can pave right up to a tree but a snail in the water gets suffocated..

Quoting IKE:
"Last night, I went into the dissertation of how this could be a strong storm and lo and behold, there is the Euro this morning with the farther east track, and of course that would imply the system gets stacked, and if it gets stacked, it gets jacked. It also means that the oil slick area could be directly impacted by this, and a lot of questions as to what a hurricane would do there could get answered next week at this time. While not etched in stone, that farther east track is more appealing to me by the minute. Why? Well remember, this is not a development with one particular wave, but the product of the OVERALL pattern producing the pressure falls and then the organization of the system... which can be in a variety of places in the western Caribbean. One sees that with the large area of spread out convection but its a sign a lot of energy can be bundled! And there in lies the key, there is a lot of energy, that if it gets focused can give us a powerful June storm. That long boring dissertation is below.".........


Sounds like stormtop/stormno/stormkat/debbykat.


LOL maybe JB "IS" stormtop/stormno/stormkat/debbykat

lol
Sorry Hebert.
Have a nice day everyone!
Gotta go get the kiddies ready for Day Camp
The region is starting to come under some shear as the anticyclone moves west...

That to the east of the invest will not likely develop.
Quoting aquak9:
mickey mouse = two blobs, like mickey mouse ears

Recon or no? getting some mixed signals herer to say the least.


It was a had to be here moment, the blog is moving too fast for me to back read and find the loop. It was just firing of convection as StormW pointed out.
I do think explosive development as well. This will occur in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf and shoot up the Eastern US.
Quoting 34chip:
How does anyone see Key West being effective by this wave or waves. Thanks
Some of this moisture should be thrown up that way soon.


963

WHXX01 KWBC 230914

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0914 UTC WED JUN 23 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100623 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100623 0600 100623 1800 100624 0600 100624 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.6N 76.0W 16.4N 78.1W 16.9N 79.9W 17.7N 81.7W

BAMD 15.6N 76.0W 16.0N 77.7W 16.1N 79.2W 16.1N 80.6W

BAMM 15.6N 76.0W 16.2N 78.0W 16.6N 79.5W 17.0N 80.9W

LBAR 15.6N 76.0W 16.0N 77.9W 16.5N 80.0W 17.0N 82.0W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100625 0600 100626 0600 100627 0600 100628 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.2N 83.2W 19.6N 86.2W 21.3N 89.0W 23.2N 91.7W

BAMD 16.2N 82.0W 16.8N 85.1W 17.7N 88.2W 18.4N 91.2W

BAMM 17.3N 82.2W 18.5N 85.0W 20.0N 87.8W 21.5N 90.6W

LBAR 17.6N 83.9W 19.5N 87.7W 21.6N 90.5W 23.1N 91.8W

SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 86KTS

DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 61KTS 39KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 76.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 74.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 71.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$
3512. 34chip
I think Key West will only get a increase chance of rain. How does everyone see it????
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The region is starting to come under some shear as the anticyclone moves west...

That to the east of the invest will not likely develop.


Kinda looks like a Charley track but a little further west or in this case further north in landfall.
now this seem correct

23/1145 UTC 16.7N 72.6W TOO WEAK 93L
Quoting Jeff9641:
I do think explosive development as well. This will occur in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf and shoot up the Eastern US.


I am more in line with that thinking as well as long as the timing is right to catch that trough. The fact that this keeps wanting to reform further west means a faster resolution, which means further west but eventually means a definite pick up by the tough and a more eastern path in the end, IMO
Quoting BobinTampa:
Stupid question possibly: wouldn't a tropical system located to the east of Lousiana actually be a good thing for them? Wouldn't the winds drive oil away from the coast?



Yes and no. Since a an area of low pressure moves counterclockwise, the winds would blow away from the shore on the storm's west side. In other words, if the system is east of New Orleans, then yes, New Orleans would be spared. However, winds would blow on shore towards Mississippi and Alabama, which could be bad (oil fears). So, it could be a good thing and a bad thing if a tropical system is east of Louisiana.
3517. Patrap
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Good morning, everyone. I know all eyes are on the Caribbean right now, but lookie what just came off of Cape Verde:
IRStill

And what's behind it ain't pretty.
Link
(click on either water vapor)
Quoting 34chip:
I think Key West will only get a increase chance of rain. How does everyone see it????
Key West always has a chance of rain lol.
Weak Moves West not North
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


I am more in line with that thinking as well as long as the timing is right to catch that trough. The fact that this keeps wanting to reform further west means a faster resolution, which means further west but eventually means a definite pick up by the tough and a more eastern path in the end, IMO


You mean further east. The center was moved from 76W to 72W. This means a further east track.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Center relocated to the position I said it would yesterday. I knew this was right.

What center???
Quoting weatherman566:


Yes and no. Since a an area of low pressure moves counterclockwise, the winds would blow away from the shore on the storm's west side. In other words, if the system is east of New Orleans, then yes, New Orleans would be spared. However, winds would blow on shore towards Mississippi and Alabama, which could be bad (oil fears). So, it could be a good thing and a bad thing if a tropical system is east of Louisiana.


Lets just say "someone" is gonna get screwed!
Good morning everyone, 93L still is not getting its act together
Can someone tell if and when the Hurricane Hunters are supposed to be in the blobs?
Quoting txag91met:
Whatever it is it is getting ripped by the outflow from 93L.


R
Quoting txag91met:
Whatever it is it is getting ripped by the outflow from 93L.

Quoting kmanislander:


I think it is more than just that. Take a look at the lower right side of this image.


Really ripped now...look at satellite. I still can't find any evidence of a surface circulation with 93L...wait until tomorrow.
AFD from NWS Melbourne, FL:

SAT-TUES...LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS TRACK A TROPICAL LOW OUT OF THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN
SEA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...DISPLAYING ONLY A WEAK LOW OVER THE
GULF BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER EITHER WAY
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. WILL SEE MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THOUGH UNDER THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


Let's hope they are right about not seeing direct impacts here!!!
The center was never moved Jeff, ssd has always had the center there while the nhc has had it further west

Wow what a mess we have this morning!



Quoting sailingallover:

But wouldn't that be better? If a storm washes all the oil into tar way up above the water line it will have way less environmental impact as far as Life goes. You can pave right up to a tree but a snail in the water gets suffocated..



you cannot pave right up to a tree. in order to pave you have to have a sub base and a base, then asphalt. in order to have a sub base and a base, it would kill a tree unless you first removed a lot of dirt. and nobody does that.
3532. GetReal
HH Plan for tomorrow:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Wow IKE, you're in a typing mood this morning. The last thing we need is a storm of any magnitude rampaging in to the Gulf...the outcome will be horrible at best. I'm sick of this oil mess (as are you), but a T.S. or hurricane will make life miserable for us folks on the coast, as if it's not bad enough already for the shrimpers, crabbers and recreational fishers to boot.
3535. IKE
chicklit...that's yesterday...6-22-10.
3536. 34chip
Lived here 16 years and always enjoy this time of year in Key West and the Florida Keys. It looks like we are in for a feww wet days here. Been dry here.
I really thought 93L would look better than it does

GFS may be right again; the energy is too spread out and each of these areas of convection are too close together and are robbing energy from each other

3538. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Wow IKE, you're in a typing mood this morning. The last thing we need is a storm of any magnitude rampaging in to the Gulf...the outcome will be horrible at best. I'm sick of this oil mess (as are you), but a T.S. or hurricane will make life miserable for us folks on the coast, as if it's not bad enough already for the shrimpers, crabbers and recreational fishers to boot.


LOL..I was quoting Bastardi.
Interesting how the anticyclone has widened considerably. (click plus and minus 3 hour)

ShearMap
just for jokes

93L via SSD location has an eye

From Tampa AFD: THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
IS RATHER LOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH
DAY.
3542. Patrap
93L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..


Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all!... Can anyone give me any quick, useful updates on our invest of choice for the week? Thanks...



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AMZ089-231530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W WILL MOVE W REACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
WAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVER NW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


(...or one could read back here for ten pages)

Good Morning
CRS
Quoting Hurricanes101:
The center was never moved Jeff, ssd has always had the center there while the nhc has had it further west



Absolutly nothing at 76W the COC is forming at 72W. Look at the visible sat.
3545. gator23
Quoting twhcracker:


you cannot pave right up to a tree. in order to pave you have to have a sub base and a base, then asphalt. in order to have a sub base and a base, it would kill a tree unless you first removed a lot of dirt. and nobody does that.

There is a tree in my nieghborhood surrounded by asphalt with no dirt to be found, I often wonder how it survived.
Quoting IKE:
chicklit...that's yesterday...6-22-10.

Hi Ike, so that means they're flying today.
Yippee.
LOOKS TO ME THAT CIRCULATION IS STARTING AGAIN AT 16W 75N on RGB LOOP.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html
Quoting weatherman566:


Yes and no. Since a an area of low pressure moves counterclockwise, the winds would blow away from the shore on the storm's west side. In other words, if the system is east of New Orleans, then yes, New Orleans would be spared. However, winds would blow on shore towards Mississippi and Alabama, which could be bad (oil fears). So, it could be a good thing and a bad thing if a tropical system is east of Louisiana.


True, but it'se easier to clean their beaches than our marshes.
If they did indeed cancel the plane trip it's likely because they didn't know where the hell to go to find anything lol. Jet fuel is too expensive nowadays to be meandering across the entire Caribbean for hours and hours...
Quoting IKE:


LOL..I was quoting Bastardi.


Well stop it!
Hi Patrap, with that satellite view, we're lookin down two barrels this morning.
3552. gator23
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Wow IKE, you're in a typing mood this morning. The last thing we need is a storm of any magnitude rampaging in to the Gulf...the outcome will be horrible at best. I'm sick of this oil mess (as are you), but a T.S. or hurricane will make life miserable for us folks on the coast, as if it's not bad enough already for the shrimpers, crabbers and recreational fishers to boot.

I remember the Doc saying that a TS or small hurricane would help disperse some of the oil. And that the real danger isi if you get a large storm with lots of surge.
IKE's plugging away this morning LOL.
What I'm seeing on satellite this morning seems to be very similar to the scenario the CMC was playing out yesterday. It formed two area south of Hispaniola, strengthened the more westerly on (the on currently south of Haiti) and slingshot the other one on the east around north of Hispaniola.

I find this plausible if the area south of Haiti is able to keep developing. Looks as if cloud tops are warming though.
3555. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Ike, so that means they're flying today.
Yippee.


Recon canceled for today is what I've read. They'll have today's recon mission for tomorrow coming out shortly.
Quoting utilaeastwind:
LOOKS TO ME THAT CIRCULATION IS STARTING AGAIN AT 16W 75N on RGB LOOP.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

Wow, that'd be a first...I've never seen an Atlantic tropical entity to the east of Greenland.
3557. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


Well stop it!


?
Quoting sailingallover:

But wouldn't that be better? If a storm washes all the oil into tar way up above the water line it will have way less environmental impact as far as Life goes. You can pave right up to a tree but a snail in the water gets suffocated..



I would hope you're right, but I still think it would be a mess.
Okay, looking at the MIMIC animation, it would look like the "center" of 93L is actually around 16N, 78W.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
Quoting 34chip:
How does anyone see Key West being effective by this wave or waves. Thanks

weather outlook for key west
weds 30% chance of rain today & tonight
thurs & thurs night 40% RAIN WINDS 15-20 MPH
FRI/SAT/SUN 50% chance rain
If the storm heads west of the spill, it will pull even more oil into the bayous and beaches of the Gulf Coast. If the storm heads east of the spill... it will help pull massive amounts of oil southward into the Gulf Loop... which could affect the SE CONUS coastline. Either way is not good. We do not need any tropical system in the GOMEX.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
What I'm seeing on satellite this morning seems to be very similar to the scenario the CMC was playing out yesterday. It formed two area south of Hispaniola, strengthened the more westerly on (the on currently south of Haiti) and slingshot the other one on the east around north of Hispaniola.

I find this plausible if the area south of Haiti is able to keep developing. Looks as if cloud tops are warming though.

The sun is awake now and that should continue to warm cloud tops through the diurnal minium period.
HH trips. TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
its not forming at 72w and no its not headed to fl period
Unless there is a source I am not aware of, this is the most up-to-date information RE: recon. All other speculation is just that - speculation....

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
If the storm heads west of the spill, it will pull even more oil into the bayous and beaches of the Gulf Coast. If the storm heads east of the spill... it will help pull massive amounts of oil southward into the Gulf Loop... which could affect the SE CONUS coastline. Either way is not good. We do not need any tropical system in the GOMEX.


You are right on the money. But then again, dispersion would help thin out the oil across the Gulf. But regardless, I would hate oil to be trapped into the Gulf Loop Current.
I think I'm going outside, park myself in a lawn chair and watch the grass grow for the rest of the day.
3568. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
its not forming at 72w and no its not headed to fl period


Really? You know that huh? There is a panhandle of Florida.
oh I see what you mean utilaeastwind and you meant 16N 75W either there or at 16N 72W
The thing that I don't understand is, according to MIMIC, total precipitable water is actually increasing around 16N, 78W, and yet nothing has been firing there. Maybe it is getting ready to?
3572. gator23
Quoting btwntx08:
its not forming at 72w and no its not headed to fl period


SEE KENT'S LAW of Global Fluid Dynamics
Quoting Floodman:


Well stop it!


Hi Flood, I thought it was funny. Heh heh.
3574. gator23
Quoting IKE:


Really? You know that huh? There is a panhandle of Florida.

and Keys.
3547:

Your coordinates are backwards, but you are correct.

The real low remains south of Jamaica. The other stuff has little chance for development in the short term.
Still remains rather disorganzied this morning. 12z UK isn't doing much of anything with this disturbance. Keep in mind there are no reliable computer models when it comes to genesis of a tropical cyclone.
If they're not going to do anything about the oil spill until August then it's inevitable that the GOM is going to be wrecked forever as oil will likely reach the Gulf loop current where it will become endemic there. In a weak hurricane season such as 2006/9 this would have been a fine plan of action but they don't know what they're up against in the powerful 2010 hurricane season.
Quoting IKE:


Really? You know that huh? There is a panhandle of Florida.
Just ignore people like that. You think he knows what he's talking about?

None of us know where this is going really, so we should stop the speculation.
3579. IKE
Quoting gator23:

and Keys.


True.
Not sure if anyone else has spotted this as yet, but take a look at between 45 and 40. Very interesting.....something to keep an eye on. Link
3581. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Those models assume that there is some sort of defined center to the thing. There ain't.
Quoting IKE:


Really? You know that huh? There is a panhandle of Florida.

yes im sure and if models are indeed correct this is a la storm
3583. IKE
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Just ignore people like that. You think he knows what he's talking about?

None of us know where this is going really, so we should stop the speculation.


Amen.
Quoting IKE:


Really? You know that huh? There is a panhandle of Florida.


I'm all messed up, I thought the panhandle was in Texas......LOL. Go Gamecocks!
Models spreading apart


Quoting btwntx08:
its not forming at 72w and no its not headed to fl period


So everybody including JB is wrong. Why don't you think this is going to the Panhandle when a huge trough will be digging across the east this weekend.
There is a naked swirl in the Atlantic at 7N 42W moving WNW.
3588. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

yes im sure and if models are indeed correct this is a la storm


Well if you say so.
Quoting IKE:


Recon canceled for today is what I've read. They'll have today's recon mission for tomorrow coming out shortly.

Ref Post 3565:
They may change coordinates, but I would be surprised if they don't go out today, particularly since Dr. Masters has said the HH flights would be a record number this year due to a study on rapid intensification.
With the models all over the place, it's a good time to go.
3591. gator23
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Just ignore people like that. You think he knows what he's talking about?

None of us know where this is going really, so we should stop the speculation.

I agree with you. KENTS LAW: Tropical Cyclone landfalls are directly and inversly proporational to the location of the WU Blogger. In laymens terms. It is going to go wherever the blogger lives regardless of climo.
3592. Patrap
Some folks get a tad tizzy over colored Lines seems.

LMAO


3593. bappit
Quoting sailingallover:

What center???


Why you keep sayin' that?

Must be a center of something, or they wouldn't have co-ordinates with it.


The North Atlantic discussion this morning does not give a center. Re-read the discussion and remember that the model outputs are not forecasts.
3594. Patrap
I just post um..

I dont elaborate on them as to why,..who's in the way or not.

They are used for Guidance,,not Gospel.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
oh I see what you mean utilaeastwind and you meant 16N 75W either there or at 16N 72W


THANKS FOR THE CORRECTION. TO ME 16N 75W LOOKS THE MOST FAVORABLE.
Quoting Jeff9641:


So everybody including JB is wrong. Why don't you think this is going to the Panhandle when a huge trough will be digging across the east this weekend.


Wishcasting is ever-present as we both know.
Quoting hurricane23:
Still remains rather disorganzied this morning. 12z UK isn't doing much of anything with this disturbance. Keep in mind there are no reliable computer models when it comes to genesis of a tropical cyclone.

It's sad really as the UKMET model has turned into a POS piece of nothing over the last couple years. It has clearly degenerated into almost nill and isn't good for anything anymore (not that it's readily available, either). There are 4 major global models; the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS and CMC.
Quoting Jeff9641:


So everybody including JB is wrong. Why don't you think this is going to the Panhandle when a huge trough will be digging across the east this weekend.

dont think the trough wont deepen that much so this will head into la...this is june not early oct
Recon is canceled, didn't read the text.
3600. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Models spreading apart




Interesting.

And some take it along the northern and NE GOM...aka Florida panhandle.

Quoting Chicklit:

Ref Post 3565:
They may change coordinates, but I would be surprised if they don't go out today, particularly since Dr. Masters has said the HH flights would be a record number this year due to a study on rapid intensification.


I'm going by what a couple of posters said. One said the TWC said it was canceled for today.

Maybe it's still on. If not, I'm sure they'll reschedule for Thursday.
Quoting Jeff9641:


So everybody including JB is wrong. Why don't you think this is going to the Panhandle when a huge trough will be digging across the east this weekend.


I don't thing Joe B. said the Fl Panhandle. I think he said further east. Many of the models want to take this to Texas. The ECMWF takes the system over LA.
3602. Patrap
Rainbow Still

By the way I live in Orlando so a Panhandle impact would mean just increased rain with some heavy totals approaching several inches here in C FL.
3604. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


So everybody including JB is wrong. Why don't you think this is going to the Panhandle when a huge trough will be digging across the east this weekend.

you are correct Jeff, not to mention that the BIG BEND of Florida isnt safe either. He belives the models are worth a lick, the models are crap without a well defined LLC.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I'm all messed up, I thought the panhandle was in Texas......LOL. Go Gamecocks!


there is a texas panhandle and Florida panhandle. the texas panhandle is the very top north square.

the florida panhandle is the northern rectangle (NOT the landmass that dips south). i remember thinking when i was younger that both areas of florida look like panhandles, really.
Shear is increasing between the Yucatan and Cuba I think this slows down development as we seen before last season and so far this season larger cloud tops want to go north while surface level winds push everything westward.
Try this again near the top of one of these fast flying pages...



Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all!... Can anyone give me any quick, useful updates on our invest of choice for the week? Thanks...




NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AMZ089-231530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W WILL MOVE W REACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
WAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVER NW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


(...or one could read back here for ten pages)

Good Morning
CRS
What % do you give of 93L ever developing?
Looks at 93L, Nuttin, logs off, come back tomm
Jeff, don't forget about an increased tornado threat here either.
I am very sorry they have changed the flight plan the flight plan as follows

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


3612. bjdsrq
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I would hope you're right, but I still think it would be a mess.


I agree. Better for a surge to push all this sludge and oil a few blocks inland than to keep it in the sea killing off innocent and vitial sea life. Oil addicted humans caused it, let them clean it up from their backyards. It will get done faster and easier that way.
Repost
3614. Patrap
The Models reflect what may occur as to the envelopes future downstream, To say there is no LLC is moot as the energy is there .

Or the invest wouldnt be under scrutiny.

Relax..

Have a Dr. Peppa.

The My yard,my State thing is as stale as week old french toast.
Latest ASCAT. Missed most of the AOI but
being from 0300AM IF a low level circulation had formed SSE of Jamaica yesterday afternoon some curvature should be in the wind flow south of Jamaica now.. but nada..
3616. gator23
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't thing Joe B. said the Fl Panhandle. I think he said further east. Many of the models want to take this to Texas. The ECMWF takes the system over LA.

Right the models mean nothing without a LLC especially this far out.
Quoting btwntx08:

yes im sure and if models are indeed correct this is a la storm


And have you ever seen models nail the exact location before a storm develops? Everyone from Mexico to Florida needs to keep an eye on the situation until we actually get a closed low and some more reliable model results and that's not likely to occur for a few days.
what's the deal with the big blob behind 93L? is that going to develop?
Quoting IKE:


Interesting.

And some take it along the northern and NE GOM...aka Florida panhandle.



I'm going by what a couple of posters said. One said the TWC said it was canceled for today.

Maybe it's still on. If not, I'm sure they'll reschedule for Thursday.

not reliable no fl pandhandle at this time if i knew its going which it wont
Quoting gator23:

Right the models mean nothing without a LLC especially this far out.


Plus where the models have this intialized there is nothing there.
Thanks, Storm!
3624. Patrap
RECON was cancelled ..
Quoting gator23:

you are correct Jeff, not to mention that the BIG BEND of Florida isnt safe either. He belives the models are worth a lick, the models are crap without a well defined LLC.

???????????????
Pat, ya'll still getting good shrimp in NOLA? We're getting plenty in Mobile.
3627. bappit
Computer programs make assumptions about their data. The data could be as accurate as reasonably possible, but if the assumptions are incorrect then for the purposes of that program it is, to use a colorful term, garbage. Garbage in, garbage out.

Sophisticated does not necessarily mean better.
Quoting btwntx08:
its not forming at 72w and no its not headed to fl period


apparently the nhc disagrees with you (about the 72 part, as to where its going, who knows)...lol...wheres the orange circle centered? ... 23/1145 UTC 16.7N 72.6W TOO WEAK 93L...

we will see...honestly....i think these coordinates are close actually...since that's what they are saying...i also think we are getting a feeder band developing in the area to the southwest and also to the northeast...will see as the day goes...lol...

i still haven't fully woke up yet...lol...
3629. aquak9
Quoting weatherman566:


You are right on the money. But then again, dispersion would help thin out the oil across the Gulf. But regardless, I would hate oil to be trapped into the Gulf Loop Current.


Wrong. Storm in Gulf means all relief-well work stops. Suction stops. ROV's leave. And it goes back to spewing like crazy.

Whatever gets dispersed at the surface will be replaced ten-fold at the leak.
3630. bjdsrq
Quoting Jeff9641:


Plus where the models have this intialized there is nothing there.


Surely. Only where there is convergence of the models is *any* hint of confidence in track. Beyond 60 hours, forget it at this point.
How are y'all doing today?
3632. Patrap
A note on the BOP..it continues to List 11-12 degrees from the vertical.
Quoting StormW:
Just got off the phone with the NHC, CARCAH...Recon HAS been canceled today and is on for tomorrow.
Thanks Storm as usual the voice of reason
3634. Walshy
Received email recon was canceled today...
3635. gator23
Quoting btwntx08:

???????????????

what is confusing you>?
Quoting StormW:
Just got off the phone with the NHC, CARCAH...Recon HAS been canceled today and is on for tomorrow.


Hi Storm, I get more than enough recon from this blog as it is. Don't you?
morning fellow wunderbloggers!!!!,gfdl track looks solid,though its been bending slowly north and east more and more on each run,the plot looks feasable to me imo......
Mid level circulation is very evident S of Haiti and we now may have a surface reflection. Does anybody have any maps to confirm this. Models need to be moved to 72W. This is why we need a recon.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
How are y'all doing today?

hello dude
they dd not cancelled the recon buy moved it to a later date
3643. 34chip
At the moment Key West and the Florida Keys sure watch this system!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Try this again near the top of one of these fast flying pages...



Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all!... Can anyone give me any quick, useful updates on our invest of choice for the week? Thanks...




NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AMZ089-231530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W WILL MOVE W REACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE FRI NIGHT. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
WAVE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVER NW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


(...or one could read back here for ten pages)

Good Morning
CRS


Thanks! I'm trying to keep up... but I'm having to do a lot of clean up today. Sick kids are no fun. :(
Quoting RobertM320:


True, but it'se easier to clean their beaches than our marshes.


I don't think we need to get into a philosophical conversation about who's shoreline is easier to clean or who would feel the greater economic impact. Any storm that gets anywhere near the DWH is gonna wreak havoc on the entire Gulf. Even just a weak TS.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Mid level circulation is very evident S of Haiti and we now may have a surface reflection. Does anybody have any maps to confirm this. Models need to be moved to 72W. This is why we need a recon.

I'm not calling them wussies.
Quoting gator23:

what is confusing you>?

Quoting gator23:

you are correct Jeff, not to mention that the BIG BEND of Florida isnt safe either. He belives the models are worth a lick, the models are crap without a well defined LLC
yes i do i believe the models maybe right
3650. Walshy
Quoting StormW:


From who?



Received it from:

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov.
Quoting 34chip:
At the moment Key West and the Florida Keys sure watch this system!
"WE" always watch every storm every season even a mild tropical storm causes flooding here, our drainage is evaporation
3652. bjdsrq
Quoting aquak9:


Wrong. Storm in Gulf means all relief-well work stops. Suction stops. ROV's leave. And it goes back to spewing like crazy.

Whatever gets dispersed at the surface will be replaced ten-fold at the leak.


They stated that won't leave for any TS storm. It would have to be bad. I guess we might find out what that threshold of pain is before too long. The ROV equipment and crews are used to being deployed in the north sea, where wind and wave conditions are worse than a TS about 6 months out of the year.
Quoting smmcdavid:


Thanks! I'm trying to keep up... but I'm having to do a lot of clean up today. Sick kids are no fun. :(


Poor you:(
3655. hercj
Quoting StormW:
Just got off the phone with the NHC, CARCAH...Recon HAS been canceled today and is on for tomorrow.

I thought they would do that. Nothing really to look at today.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Mid level circulation is very evident S of Haiti and we now may have a surface reflection. Does anybody have any maps to confirm this. Models need to be moved to 72W. This is why we need a recon.

i dont think so yet
Quoting Patrap:
The Models reflect what may occur as to the envelopes future downstream, To say there is no LLC is moot as the energy is there .

Or the invest wouldnt be under scrutiny.

Relax..

Have a Dr. Peppa.

The My yard,my State things is as stale as week old french toast.

Saying there IS an LLC is just wrong and implies a far greater degree of development than exists.

Once you have a solid COC development can be extremely rapid < 24 hours to a hurricane.
That is why saying it does not exist is NOT MOOT! If there was a COC or even LCC on either are of convection that are S SE of PR and the VI's my course of action would be VERY different. I would be on my boat to a hurricane hole not posting on the board.

Yes the energy is there but the MCV's that everyone is looking at and calling centers of circulation are not.
If I was in Key West I would watch this the next couple of days. As a storm moving off the eastern tip of Cuba will have big impacts on Key West.
3659. gator23
Quoting btwntx08:

Quoting gator23:

you are correct Jeff, not to mention that the BIG BEND of Florida isnt safe either. He belives the models are worth a lick, the models are crap without a well defined LLC
yes i do i believe the models maybe right

So then, your not confused?
anyone have a link with isobars on it for 93L, it looks like the low is reforming SW from where it is now. It also seems to be spinning now. Any comments?
Shear map gyre just tightened up again.
Click plus and minus three hour.
Link
Off to hard labor.
Have scored and primed, now must paint the carport. therefore bravely i go. sheesh.
Quoting StormW:
Just got off the phone with the NHC, CARCAH...Recon HAS been canceled today and is on for tomorrow.


SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z


This mornings satellite imagery shows an improving look to the overall appearance of the area in the upper levels but boy convection still remains ill defined. There is some shear there 15-20kts but nothing to prohibitive. Thought i'd mention the 12z UK is doing much of anything with this. Long way from being a tc.
3664. aquak9
bjdsrq- I hope you are right. Figured they'd high-tail it outta there at the first opportunity.
Quoting Jeff9641:
If I was in Key West I would watch this the next couple of days. As a storm moving off the eastern tip of Cuba will have big impacts on Key West.
I am part of the eoc/ems/drt team we have had preplan hurricane meetings in the past few weeks and are always watching the weather. we dont rely on fema to take care of us here, we take care of our own
3666. 34chip
I live in Key West also.I know about flooding. lol!!! One wrong move then we are under the gun. lol
3667. Walshy
I hear they really want a recon in 93L before it goes into the GOM. Still plenty of time to wait and watch.
Quoting StormW:


If I'm correct, when they do go, the tasking should go to MacDill, right?


MacDill is for NOAA, operational tasking is usually USAF.
3669. bappit
3654

Ok. I got tired of waiting, so I called..spoke with John of CARCAH.

Thanks for the info.
3670. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

???????????????


Where do you live? Let me guess...Texas?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


MacDill is for NOAA, operational tasking is usually USAF.


And typically flies out of Biloxi, MS.
ok all off to watch usa beat the pants of algeria back later play nice
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I am very sorry they have changed the flight plan the flight plan as follows

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




so what does that mean?? I don't know what all that means? Is it canceled?
the anticyclone is moving out ahead of 93L, that is not going to help it develop
3677. Patrap
One can recieve NHC Update via E-mail..and Twitter of you sign up.

Never miss a TWO or HH flight schedule.
Quoting StormW:


If I'm correct, when they do go, the tasking should go to MacDill, right?


Keesler's a little far off but they could run out of there if needed. MacDill would be my guess.
3679. jpsb
Quoting WindynEYW:
" our drainage is evaporation

We must be neighbors!
Why is it that the people who make the loops for ALL of these websites are incompetent? They are always late publishing them, and they put the frames in the wrong order half the time. It's ridiculous they get payed to do this.
3682. will45
Quoting StormW:


If I'm correct, when they do go, the tasking should go to MacDill, right?

I talked to Randy yesterday who flys with HH and he is saying Keesler
So, how is it that there's NOT a COC SW of PR?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

There also looks to be a smaller one that's fading SW of Haiti - but the one SW of PR seems to be sapping it's energy. Does anyone have a link w/isobars?
3684. 34chip
I live on Emmma St in Key West in the Condos
Quoting IKE:


Where do you live? Let me guess...Texas?

i thought u knew already lol
no the hunters flight are not canceled but reschedule.
Hello everybody!!!!!,I'm wondering why the models or the official track has the center of circulation or the future center of circulation East and South.Looking at the satellite presentation in my opinion the center is trying to relocate just south of Haiti,much father north??,any comments about this observation.Thanks!
Sorry, Keesler it is....
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
no the hunters flight are not canceled but reschedule.


canceled for today

6 of one and half dozen of the other, basically the same thing lol
3691. Patrap
Quoting StormW:


Good info Pat!

But I like calling..LOL!!


Ya gotta keep up with the Kids techno stuff Chief.

Phones are so passe ya know.

I got a text from portlight last 15
Hello Pat, This weather system blowing over us has brought the oil smell back down here, you noticed it uptown? I think it is worse than before :(
Quoting RecordSeason:
Why is it that the people who make the loops for ALL of these websites are incompetent? They are always late publishing them, and they put the frames in the wrong order half the time. It's ridiculous they get payed to do this.


I take it you're in management?
Brazil floods kill 41 as 1000 missing

* From: AFP
* June 23, 2010 8:16PM


RAGING floods in northeastern Brazil have killed at least 41 people and left as many as 1000 missing, while firefighters described entire towns being wiped off the map.

Dramatic television pictures showed survivors scrambling to rooftops to avoid being swept away, clinging desperately to lines of rope as rescuers in helicopters rushed to pluck them from the muddy floodwaters.

The death toll looked set to rise with more heavy rain forecast and the authorities giving estimates of the missing ranging from several hundred to 1000.

"Up until the early afternoon we had 26 confirmed dead in Alagoas and more than 1000 people missing," the governor of the poor coastal state Teotonio Vilela Filho told government news wire Agencia Brasil.

"But we are worried because bodies are starting to appear on the beaches and the rivers."
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced late yesterday that he would be back to overfly the area on Thursday, as Defense Minister Nelson Jobim has done, the official news agency Agencia Brasil reported.

Officials later raised the toll in Alagoas to 29, while a civil defence officials said another 12 fatalities were confirmed in the larger neighbouring state of Pernambuco.

Almost 100,000 people in the two states were left without a home or forced to evacuate, while some towns were completely cut off as powerful torrents collapsed bridges and swamped roads and railway lines, officials said.

Rooftops and church bell towers were the only structures visible above massive brown expanses of floodwater that only looked set to rise in the coming days.

A firefighters' spokesman told AFP entire towns had been "wiped off the map" after the Mundau river burst its banks in the town of Uniao dos Palmares in Alagoas.

In the separate town of Palmares in the neighbouring state of Pernambuco, a woman who lost her home sobbed as she told Globonews television: "It destroyed our city. It destroyed everything."

Jose Mariano, whose house in nearby Cachanga was waterlogged, said: "It was really tough here. We had a refrigerator and an armoire at my brother's house for safe keeping and the water came in and just kept rising."

Five Air Force helicopters ferried aid to those stranded by the flooding, while a military plane also delivered some 14 tonnes of donated food, medicine, drinking water and mattresses.

Lula held a crisis cabinet meeting that included ministers and the governors of the affected states.

Afterwards, officials announced $US55 million ($A63 million) in emergency aid, half of which had already been delivered to the state governments.

Governor Padilha said the priority was to get emergency drinking water and food to the flooded areas, and restore electricity.

In April, flooding and landslides triggered by torrential rain killed at least 229 people in the Rio de Janeiro area.
This wave is getting more organized by the hour. I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't a TD before the day is out. Will be interesting to see if it can keep its convection going during the day. Looks a strong line of storms speeding across southern Haiti may give it an extra boost of energy today.
Link
3697. 34chip
How many people on here live in key west like me.
interesting
Link
3699. Patrap
Quoting nishinigami:
Hello Pat, This weather system blowing over us has brought the oil smell back down here, you noticed it uptown? I think it is worse than before :(


Just had a shower Uptown..but last evening one could smell it here.
Just got this off the offical web page.

NOUS42 KNHC 231345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 23 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 24/1330Z
D. 16.5N 80.0W
E. 24/1700Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 25/0200Z
D. 17.0N 81.0W
E. 25/0400Z TO 25/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z AND 24/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/0930Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Hurricane 1956 -


In the last few frames of the loop, it looks like there are two COCs here but that the one SW of PR is proving the stronger one and sapping the strength of the one SW of Haiti - although that did not seem to be the case last night.

This is why I've been wondering if anyone had a link w/isobars for the carib. If so, we could solve this problem in a second. Just look for the lowest area of pressure.
BP is burning sea turtles alive, says Gulf captain

* From: NewsCore
* June 23, 2010 11:10PM

A BOAT captain working to rescue sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico said he saw BP ships burning sea turtles and other wildlife alive.

Captain Mike Ellis said in an interview posted on YouTube that the boats were conducting controlled burns to get rid of the oil, myFOXtampabay.com reported.

"They drag a boom between two shrimp boats, and whatever gets caught between the two boats, they circle it up and catch it on fire. Once the turtles are in there, they can%u2019t get out," Mr Ellis said.

Mr Ellis said he had to cut short his three-week trip rescuing the turtles because BP quit allowing him access to rescue turtles before the burns.

"They're pretty much keeping us from doing what we need to do out there," he said.

Other reports corroborate Captain Ellis' claims. A report in the Los Angeles Times described "burn fields" of 500 square miles in which 16 controlled burns will take place in one day.

"When the weather is calm and the sea is placid, ships trailing fireproof booms corral the black oil, the coated seaweed and whatever may be caught in it, and torch it ... " the report said.

Mr Ellis said most of the turtles he saw were Kemps Ridley turtles, a critically endangered species. Harming or killing one would bring stiff civil and criminal penalties and fines of up to $50,000 against BP.

Read more about BP burning sea turtles alive at myFOXtampabay.com

3703. hercj
Quoting StormW:


If I'm correct, when they do go, the tasking should go to MacDill, right?

Senior I would expect both actually. The launch times for Keesler are 830am edt and 1000pm eastern. I don't think the 53rd has an aircraft in St Croix. NOAA research may want this. What I am expecting is a GIV mission which I do not see on the flight schedule yet. This comes more out of forecasting than Frank Marks HRD.
3706. Patrap
The G-4 will most Likely fly a Hi-Altitude Orbital Flight come Friday ahead of the System.

For as warm and muggy as it was last night, I might as well live in Key West. The low was 83 here at my place (up by Cape Canaveral)
Back on the road, you guys have fun :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
3709. Patrap
Fuel is NEVER a constraint to fly.

For NOAA nor the AF.






LinkCheck this wv loop see ull over se fl. moving sw I think this is whats hindering development.If it stays around long enough system may just continue west with rain for Central America.Hopefully
3711. 34chip
StormW How do you see with these systems for Key West. Think they are going to stay south of us?? Thanks!!
3712. hercj
Quoting StormW:


That would make sense...my thinking was, why not task NOAA and save some gas.

Last year those budgets were combined. However, I am sure that the reason they were called off this morning is because the season forecast for hyperactivity. They are not going to waste resources this early in the season. What does surprise me though is no synoptic mission from the GIV. They should be the first out of the barn on this. Who knows.
3713. Drakoen
No suprise the canceled the recon out there. Nothing well-defined.
I am starting to get the feeling that 93L may never come together at all

Quoting sailingallover:

Saying there IS an LLC is just wrong and implies a far greater degree of development than exists.

Once you have a solid COC development can be extremely rapid < 24 hours to a hurricane.
That is why saying it does not exist is NOT MOOT! If there was a COC or even LCC on either are of convection that are S SE of PR and the VI's my course of action would be VERY different. I would be on my boat to a hurricane hole not posting on the board.

Yes the energy is there but the MCV's that everyone is looking at and calling centers of circulation are not.



While 93l certainly has a vast amount of energy it does not have much in the way of organization.
only a slight mid level circulation is present and frankly it is not very impressive looking.

I am thinking actually now - it may not even develop at all. Sad it is already 23 days into the season with record SST's and low shear and because of weather modification we cannot even get a wimpy Invest to develop now. Looks like Bill Gate's patents might be paying off. even though it is fairly early in the season given the massive weather modification efforts underway I like many who know am no longer expecting a hyper active season. and my guess is 93L will never amount to much.
Quoting Drakoen:
No suprise the canceled the recon out there. Nothing well-defined.


GFS has nailed this again up to this point IMO, it never really developed 93L because it felt the energy was too spread out; which as of now is the case. Now it appears the anticyclone is outrunning 93L; which certainly won't help with development
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody!!!!!,I'm wondering why the models or the official track has the center of circulation or the future center of circulation East and South.Looking at the satellite presentation in my opinion the center is trying to relocate just south of Haiti,much father north??,any comments about this observation.Thanks!


There are no reliable computer models when it comes to genesis of a tropical cyclone. In my personal take models work much better after TC genesis. satellite imagery shows an improving look to the overall appearance of the area in the upper levels but convection still remains ill defined. There is some shear there 15-20kts but nothing to prohibitive. Still ways away from being anything to worry about.

3718. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I am starting to get the feeling that 93L may never come together at all



It won't be today.
3346 Jeff9641 "...day 65 of this disaster. I think there is some good news though as the navy has retrieved over a million barrels from the cap."

No, the navy has nothing to do with this operation.
A million barrels would be 15,000barrels per day over nearly 67days.
The cap collection only meaningfully started on 7Jun2010, only 16days ago.
As far as I know, the operation has never collected more than 15,000barrels per day when averaged over the cap collection period.
Which would make the total collected directly from the leak to be less than 250thousand barrels.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I am starting to get the feeling that 93L may never come together at all



That's what I said yestrday, and I got shunned. :(
3722. Drakoen
Just because it isn't a tropical cyclone now doesn't mean it cannot develop. Tropical cyclone development is a process and not an act of instant gratification.
3723. Patrap
NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF

NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF, has a certified ceiling of 45000 feet, a range of 4075 nm, and a cruising true air speed of 440 knots. The aircraft is instrumented to measure 1-Hz flight-level data, including GPS position, radar altitude, pressure, all three wind components, temperature, and humidity. The primary instrument systems are the GPS dropwindsonde system, a main aircraft data system and local area network capable of handling specialized sensors, and a workstation (HAPS) for processing and coding the data from the GPS sondes for direct transmission to NHC and NMC via a 9600 baud (2400 bd initially) satellite communications link.

For you 93L Jamaican Low Doubters...

Clouds beginning to curve around Jamaican Low

I don't think ya'll comprehend the scale of how big the 93L wave was 2 days ago. This entire complex of storms (except for the wave that passed Antilles over night,) is caused by 93L trying to re-establish the massive band it had about 36-48 hours ago, which was sheared off maybe 30 hours ago.

I said then that I questioned whether it was physically possible for it to develop at that size, and it probably isn't possible in it's current location, but if it can get the band to converge inward some then it's going to be RI me thinks.

If a wave this size had been 10 degrees farther north, it would have been like typhoon Tip in size,and it would have been far enough away from land to actually develop at that size...
NWS BROWNSVILLE
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FORECAST AS LONG AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GULF SHOWERS
WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO MAKING IT INLAND. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW INLAND TO
ADD INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
JUST ENOUGH DAYTIME BREEZINESS TO

EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH A RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A COLD TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO FORM OVER TEXAS. ONLY A MODEST
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THE
FUTURE OF THIS WAVE. GFS DOES VIRTUALLY NOTHING WITH IT SPREADING
ONLY MOISTURE AND TROPICAL SHOWERS OVER THE GULF. WHILE THE ECMWF
IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM DEVELOPING A FULL FLEDGED
CYCLONE. NWS BROWNSVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WAVE AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE...THE
HOT AND HUMID SUMMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEY TROUGH
Quoting Drakoen:
Just because it isn't a tropical cyclone now doesn't mean it cannot develop. Tropical cyclone development is a process and not an act of instant gratification.


It has no surface circulation at all, whatsoever, and the cloud tops are warming significantly.

-Snowy
New Blog
3729. 34chip
Thanks Storm! At the moment it looks great outside!
3730. hercj
Quoting Patrap:
NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF

NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF, has a certified ceiling of 45000 feet, a range of 4075 nm, and a cruising true air speed of 440 knots. The aircraft is instrumented to measure 1-Hz flight-level data, including GPS position, radar altitude, pressure, all three wind components, temperature, and humidity. The primary instrument systems are the GPS dropwindsonde system, a main aircraft data system and local area network capable of handling specialized sensors, and a workstation (HAPS) for processing and coding the data from the GPS sondes for direct transmission to NHC and NMC via a 9600 baud (2400 bd initially) satellite communications link.


My baby
3731. Patrap
Once again..93L isnt going to get going till it slides a lil more west thru time.

All the intensity Guidance has shown that since Monday morning.


Climo dosnt favor the area till it gets past Jamaica as History shows.






We rarely mention bouy data. But falling pressures are a big part of knowing if a wave is developing.. right now pressures are up or steady
This
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
would be falling if 93L was developing
Check your pressure
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Aren't I a buzzkill...sorry everyone go to work now come back later
3733. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
3734. hercj
Quoting StormW:


When I spoke with CARCAH, they canceled this mornings flight for the exact reason Drak just posted.

Yes that was my original point. Nothing to look at. Don't waste missions
Quoting Snowlover123:


It has no surface circulation at all, whatsoever, and the cloud tops are warming significantly.

-Snowy

look at 850 vitocity
Quoting btwntx08:

look at 850 vitocity


If it has a circulation a 850 mb Velocity, then it is a mid-level circulation... I think.

-Snowlover123
3737. 34chip
Call this strange,but I have seen no chickens in my neighborhood, and the birds are acting strange here in Key West. Makes you go hummmm!!!! lol
3738. hercj
Quoting StormW:


When I spoke with CARCAH, they canceled this mornings flight for the exact reason Drak just posted.

Yes that was my original point. Nothing to look at. Don't waste missions
Quoting Snowlover123:


If it has a circulation a 850 mb Velocity, then it is a mid-level circulation... I think.

-Snowlover123

850MB is around 5000 feet which is low level
around 500MB is mid level 300-200 upper
15.6N 76.6W COC has almost no clouds, beyond that if that is where the COC then we should be able to see clear spin, no? 92L we saw the spin when the clouds got push away from the center. There is another clearer spin closer to the 17.2N 73.6W that has plenty of clouds, plenty of people have commented about it. But if 15.6N 76.6W is the only COC, it will take days before that will develop, it sooo far away from any convenction, I don't think this ever flared up where they said the COC is, weird.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


GFS has nailed this again up to this point IMO, it never really developed 93L because it felt the energy was too spread out; which as of now is the case. Now it appears the anticyclone is outrunning 93L; which certainly won't help with development


GFS and all the others run on numbers not emotions.
Quoting Patrap:
NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF

NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF, has a certified ceiling of 45000 feet, a range of 4075 nm, and a cruising true air speed of 440 knots. The aircraft is instrumented to measure 1-Hz flight-level data, including GPS position, radar altitude, pressure, all three wind components, temperature, and humidity. The primary instrument systems are the GPS dropwindsonde system, a main aircraft data system and local area network capable of handling specialized sensors, and a workstation (HAPS) for processing and coding the data from the GPS sondes for direct transmission to NHC and NMC via a 9600 baud (2400 bd initially) satellite communications link.



That's a pretty plane. Who makes it. I might get one for the corporation. LMAO
Quoting bjdsrq:


I agree. Better for a surge to push all this sludge and oil a few blocks inland than to keep it in the sea killing off innocent and vitial sea life. Oil addicted humans caused it, let them clean it up from their backyards. It will get done faster and easier that way.


it does not just go into back yards when it goes inland. it goes into wetlands and bays and bayous and streams. wetlands are the nurseries of most everything there is, fish and birds.
Quoting Floodman:


I take it you're in management?


he's gotta be in management, he doesnt know how to spell "paid"
Quoting AussieStorm:
BP is burning sea turtles alive, says Gulf captain

* From: NewsCore
* June 23, 2010 11:10PM

A BOAT captain working to rescue sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico said he saw BP ships burning sea turtles and other wildlife alive.

Captain Mike Ellis said in an interview posted on YouTube that the boats were conducting controlled burns to get rid of the oil, myFOXtampabay.com reported.

"They drag a boom between two shrimp boats, and whatever gets caught between the two boats, they circle it up and catch it on fire. Once the turtles are in there, they can%u2019t get out," Mr Ellis said.

Mr Ellis said he had to cut short his three-week trip rescuing the turtles because BP quit allowing him access to rescue turtles before the burns.

"They're pretty much keeping us from doing what we need to do out there," he said.

Other reports corroborate Captain Ellis' claims. A report in the Los Angeles Times described "burn fields" of 500 square miles in which 16 controlled burns will take place in one day.

"When the weather is calm and the sea is placid, ships trailing fireproof booms corral the black oil, the coated seaweed and whatever may be caught in it, and torch it ... " the report said.

Mr Ellis said most of the turtles he saw were Kemps Ridley turtles, a critically endangered species. Harming or killing one would bring stiff civil and criminal penalties and fines of up to $50,000 against BP.

Read more about BP burning sea turtles alive at myFOXtampabay.com



It's sad that they're not taking the extra time to save some of the wildlife. Perhaps the best thing would be if BP were blown away by a big hurricane, never to return.
Really?