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93L near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010

The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.


Figure 2. Combined plot of wind speed, wind gusts, and pressure at buoy 42057 in the Western Caribbean. Pressure (green line) has fallen significantly over the past two days, and winds are beginning to increase.

Forecast for 93L
The greatest risk from 93L to the Western Caribbean will be heavy rainfall, and the nation most at risk is Honduras. The counter-clockwise flow of air around 93L will bring bands of rain capable of bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to northern Honduras over the next two days. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can also be expected in northeast Nicaragua, Cuba, Belize, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, and this motion is expected to gradually slow over the next five days to about 6 mph. I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The storm will probably be a tropical depression or tropical storm with 40 mph winds when it moves over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The storm will probably spend a day or so over the Yucatan, resulting in significant weakening. Once 93L emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take the storm 24+ hours to recover its strength.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFDL and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Bay of Campeche and make landfall along Mexican coast south of Texas, or in Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is difficult to speculate on at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is also highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico, which would make it unlikely 93L could intensify into a hurricane. In summary, I give 93L a 60% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, and 10% chance of eventually becoming a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is producing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system was designated Invest 94 by NHC this morning, and is passing beneath a trough of low pressure that is generating 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. However, by Sunday, the storm will be in a region of much lower wind shear, and NHC is giving the storm a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. We do have one model, the GFS, which develops the system early next week. The GFS model takes the storm to the northwest and then north, predicting it will be very close to Bermuda on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Hurricane Celia as a Category 4 storm at 20:55 UTC Thursday, June 24, 2010, as captured by NASA's MODIS instrument.

Impressive Hurricane Celia hits Category 5
The first Category 5 hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere this year is Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific. Celia's 160 mph winds make it tied with Australia's Tropical Cyclone Ului as the strongest tropical cyclone in the world so far in 2010. Celia has likely peaked in intensity, and is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


Lots of folks have been asking about and been worried about you! Glad to see ya!
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


Welcome back. How's your health.
Glad to see you back, 456!
sammywammybamy 12:18 AM GMT on June 26, 2010



ITS HUGE this thing could be a Hurricane if conditons allow.

(Discalimer: Please No "thats what she said" comments.)


I hope we're not THAT immature.
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.
Hey.I had a dream you come back.
Quoting extreme236:
01L should soon begin a more NW track.
Agreed.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, plenty of time to become a 50 mph TS.
Could become a hurricane before making landfall.
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.



HEY HEY HEY


3508. xcool
weather 456 VIP MAN
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's a joke...hence the LOL


Gotcha lol, worried me for a second. I was thinking 'has CaneWarning been hacked? JFV is that you?'
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Hey.I had a dream you come back.
Ok, that proves you are TOO much time on this blog.
Quoting hurrkat05:
taco i think you should ask the dr about that you are dead wrong..i think other people on here like storm w would tell you it would have little affect on the oil situation...you have your opinion and i have mind..

OK just to let you no we all along the north gulf coast had (Let me Quote)"Higher" than normal Tides here when Ike, Rita, and even Dolly because of the Waves that were produced buy storms that hit Texas coast.... The Oil is not only south of us it is hitting the Shores as we chat right now.... So any storm that comes in from that direction no matter how big it is will (again Quote)"Bring in High Tides".... So to tell me any anyone on this blog that lives here on the North gulf coast will not lbe affected by this storm is (quote)"Wrong"....

Taco :o)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Gotcha lol, worried me for a second. I was thinking 'has CaneWarning been hacked? JFV is that you?'


Nah, when I am joking I normally through in an LOL or two.
TD 1 IS RIP 94L is RIP hurricane season is a bust


lol this kinding
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.
i guess you can forget the email i just sent ya

good to see ya my brother from a diffent mother
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
How come there were guys claiming record sst next to Louisiana, Alabama and MS coasts and the heat content doesn't supports it? Can somebody explain it? Thanks!

It's called wishcasting... there is a lot of that here.. I agree the GOM waters outside the loop current just got hot enough on the surface to support a storm but how deep does it go?
hey 456 good to see you back
Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 1 IS RIP 94L is RIP hurricane season is a bust


lol this kinding
are you drinking taz
As we have seen in the EPAC with Celia and Darby, the intensity on the 00z initialization or any cycle can often be a bit off. But 00z being run as a TD still. Makes since because the 8pm advisory was still 30kt.

AL, 01, 2010062600, , BEST, 0, 166N, 839W, 30, 1004, TD
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you drinking taz



yes i had 1000 budlights


now back too TD 1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you drinking taz


You had better watch out, Taz may spay you.
Quoting uplater:



As you can see from the vid that Patrap posted: the towers need not occur around the COC, but it is often a good indicator of where it might be. The colors represent gradients. Red is -70c, and yellow is -80c. Any Greyishness in that yellow is -90c, and that is some seriously heavy mojo for a TD.

Here is another color gradient than the one I posted before from GOES sat. in this the redder the colder.





Okay, I see. I've been looking at some of the GOES images at NOAA's site and I'm seeing a lot of red around where I think the center is of TD-1. No grey, though.

Thank you!
taco like i said you have your opinion we are not talking about a rita we are talking minimal tropical storm at best if that when it crosses into boc...big difference you trying to compare fantasy here..
Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 1 IS RIP 94L is RIP hurricane season is a bust


lol this kinding
picking a fight i !!!see
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not when dealing with a relatively weak system like 01L, but when they send you to do those missions with strong hurricanes, then those are scary.


Actually, that's not true. I have talked to a Hurricane hunter, and they honestly fear systems that are not organized (TD's and TS), mainly because you can get a lot of updrafts and sometimes a center is not as well defined. In Hurricanes, it is easy to fly into, especially once you enter the eye, where conditions are calm. They said that turbulence is worse over an unorganized system.
3526. xcool
Tazmanian lol
Quoting CaneWarning:


You had better watch out, Taz may spay you.




lol
Why when i click Invest 94, it says hurricane hunter data, and found 45 mph winds at the surface , pressure 1003... an error or what?
Quoting sailingallover:

It's called wishcasting... there is a lot of that here.. I agree the GOM waters outside the loop current just got hot enough on the surface to support a storm but how deep does it go?


LOL, thanks sailingallover!
Hello everybody! a lot of early action in the Caribbean.Just wondering what if any will be the effect of this system on South Florida?,it have a very large circulation and if this system moves a little bit to the right of the current track we should be getting a lot of rain here in Miami,any comments??,thanks~
3531. lavinia
456...Happy to see you back! Hope you're feeling better
Good to see ya back 456..hope you're feelin better. Tropics didn't bother to hold off w/out you.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok, that proves you are TOO much time on this blog.
I don't really spend that much time on the blog,It's just that weather456 had been missing for awhile and I got worried.
Darby weaker

EP, 05, 2010062600, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1019W, 100, 966, HU
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
picking a fight i !!!see



AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHH lol
That was weird...
Those cloud tops are unreal. All this thing ever really needed was to get itself stacked, and off it goes.
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45
3539. Grothar
3540. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (AL012010) 20100626 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100626 0000 100626 1200 100627 0000 100627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 83.9W 17.7N 86.0W 19.0N 87.8W 20.2N 89.6W
BAMD 16.6N 83.9W 17.1N 85.9W 17.9N 87.8W 18.7N 89.4W
BAMM 16.6N 83.9W 17.4N 85.9W 18.2N 87.8W 19.2N 89.6W
LBAR 16.6N 83.9W 17.1N 86.0W 18.1N 88.1W 19.2N 90.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100628 0000 100629 0000 100630 0000 100701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 91.0W 23.3N 93.3W 24.2N 95.1W 24.3N 96.5W
BAMD 19.6N 90.7W 21.1N 92.6W 22.2N 95.0W 23.0N 97.3W
BAMM 20.4N 91.0W 21.8N 93.0W 22.8N 95.1W 23.1N 97.2W
LBAR 20.6N 91.9W 23.9N 94.2W 27.7N 95.9W 31.6N 94.9W
SHIP 64KTS 73KTS 77KTS 75KTS
DSHP 36KTS 45KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 83.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45


wow
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45



OMG we have a name storm?
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45


Woah. Looks like Alex is almost here.
Does anybody remember TampaMishy? Where has she been? I haven't seen her forever on here. She used to really help us with trolls.
cam someone plese post the website I can access the models .
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45


That makes it a TS.
Quoting CaneWarning:


You had better watch out, Taz may spay you.


Taz may have to spay himself if he doesn't dial it back a little. I'm a Taz fan but things are gonna tighten up a little to the point where we may get pitched off for saying crow and fish much less something too random.
3548. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:


Okay, I see. I've been looking at some of the GOES images at NOAA's site and I'm seeing a lot of red around where I think the center is of TD-1. No grey, though.

Thank you!


Am actually seeing some greying-out ( ~90c ) in this fairly recent image ( 23:45z ):


Well I say onec it hits 40 mph TS it will start moving North one 45 mph it will start moving North East and hit W cuba as a 50 or 70 mph TS
T 2.5 = a TS doesn't it? So a 3.0 has got to be.
Quoting btwntx08:

still has effects for south tx


Baytown, or Beaufort?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn!



You know when a tropical depression's outer bands stretch from Haiti to te BOC, Straits of Florida to Costa Rica...there's something ominous lurking.

Quoting Tazmanian:
where evere the storm makes land fall it will sure take the oil with it


Not if it sticks to a westward track after entering the BOC.

Quoting cg2916:
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!


No, it's the size of a large West Pacific super typhoon!
G'evening, all! I just got back from Cali; how's 93L doing? :).
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave out a T3.0

AL, 01, 201006252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 8400W, , 3, 45
TAFB as been very generous with 01L. This should push 01L to TS Alex.
Quoting hurrkat05:
taco like i said you have your opinion we are not talking about a rita we are talking minimal tropical storm at best if that when it crosses into boc...big difference you trying to compare fantasy here..

No Fantasy here the water has no where to go but up north.... Its the counter clockwise of the storm that brings in the Oil.... Link
oh no
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Taz may have to spay himself if he doesn't dial it back a little. I'm a Taz fan but things are gonna tighten up a little to the point where we may get pitched off for saying crow and fish much less something too random.


Yeah, I have a feeling that there will be less of us on the blog within the next 48 hours.
Hurricane1956... at this point, we can not rule anything out here in Florida. Right now, it looks ok, but you know how things go (ex. Charley)! At this point looks to increase moisture over the weekend into next week as tropical moisture is drawn north from the Caribbean. But remember to be vigilant, even though we are not "in the cone." There are lots of discrepancies in the models at this time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, plenty of time to become a 50 mph TS.

OR more
If I was in cozumel/cancun I'd be preparing for a Weak Cat 1 and hoping for no more than 40knots sustained for an hour or two.
TD one still looks ragged to me
But I'm like that.
Rapid Intesification?
Quoting GlobalWarming:
G'evening, all! I just got back from Cali; how's 93L doing? :).


You mean TD #1/TS Alex :)
Quoting uplater:


Am actually seeing some greying-out ( ~90c ) in this fairly recent image ( 23:45z ):




Oh yeah! I see it. It wasn't in the image I was looking at earlier. Wow, that's so cool!
oh by the way BP is now stopping all collections in the Gulf due to the storm....
Goodnight TD1:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB as been very generous with 01L. This should push 01L to TS Alex.


Maybe its not really generous, but rather the SAB is just a bit lagging. It's gotta catch up, but the constraints prevent it from doing so very quickly.
Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG I SEE A EYE



OK - I can't take it anymore, been a long time lurker and you're definitely not the Taz I remember sorry ... poof.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB as been very generous with 01L. This should push 01L to TS Alex.


Definitely, its part of the NHC official track that it will be a TS soon anyways, NHC likes being right lol.
3567. xcool



newwwwwwwwwwwwwww




3568. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:


Oh yeah! I see it. It wasn't in the image I was looking at earlier. Wow, that's so cool!


Literally, so cool =). you may have been looking at the water vapor images/loops. Different Subject. Colors represent diff. scale.
3569. txjac
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.


I am so happy to see you ...was worried as we hadnt seen you, I hope that you are back to 100%.
i wounder if that will give us Alex at 11pm
Wont be long and ol Alex will be dying over the Yucatan and will shut everybody up and then have to start ALL OVER again in the Gulf
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???
SAB gave out a DT of 2.5, so I'd say were definitely dealing with a tropical storm now. Whether it's declared at 11 I don't know.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good Night:



Is that a hot tower?
i agree on that rita evac
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???
Action: Quote | Ignore User


I think the blog is just moving so fast.
Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???


you are not blocked
3578. uplater
Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???


You're good for here...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good Night:



How.. How is that even possible in the atlantic?
Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???


I can't see you.
Weather456 "I see we have TD 1."

Waiting with bated breath for your return, twas 93L. And TD1 is its sigh of relief.
Quoting uplater:


Literally. you may have been looking at the water vapor images/loops. Different Subject. Colors represent diff. scale.


I was looking at the Rainbow. Which is the one I should be looking at?
3583. uplater
Quoting CaneWarning:


I can't see you.


why didn't I think of that
Quoting taco2me61:
oh by the way BP is now stopping all collections in the Gulf due to the storm....



link please???
Folks the reason why TD1 is big is because it has the characteristics of a Western Pacific Storm. There was soo much energy in the Caribbean, it lead to this monsoonal depression. As with typhoon development, it takes a long time (days) for a disturbance out there to organize into a storm. This is what happened with what is now TD1. The only thing I wonder is.. Once a system forms in the West Pacific, they get going pretty quick, so TD1 comes into mind. I am treating it like a Western Pacific storm, I feel that this may be on the verge or at Hurricane strength come landfall at the Yucatan.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Baytown, or Beaufort?



You know when a tropical depression's outer bands stretch from Haiti to te BOC, Straits of Florida to Costa Rica...there's something ominous lurking.



Not if it sticks to a westward track after entering the BOC.



No, it's the size of a large West Pacific super typhoon!

brownsville lol
talking about the Western Pacific i think this is now the 1st time the Western Pacific has not had a storm in june
Quoting extreme236:
SAB gave out a DT of 2.5, so I'd say were definitely dealing with a tropical storm now. Whether it's declared at 11 I don't know.
Could be, although unlikely.

T-Number 2.0: 30 knot winds - pressure of 1009mb.
T-Number 2.5: 35 knot winds - pressure of 1005mb.
T-Number 3.0: 45 knot winds - pressure of 1000mb.

TS Alex at 11PM or sooner is almost certain.
3589. uplater
Quoting weatherwart:


I was looking at the Rainbow. Which is the one I should be looking at?


The Rainbow show the Water Vapor in the region/AOI ( Area of Interest ), look for the funktop/IR ( infrared ) to see the temperature.
cat 5 by morning then heading to the gulf for a oil change
Quoting taco2me61:
oh by the way BP is now stopping all collections in the Gulf due to the storm....


where did you see that?
thats very possible reed but only for a short time or maybe a strong tropical storm..
3593. IKE
Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???


I see em. When there's so many posts per minute on here it's hard to get questions answered sometimes.
Compare Category 3 Darby to TD1.

Link

Note, this RGB is over an hour old already.
And to add, reedzone... pretty strong too. Some of the world's strongest tropical cyclones were formed in the WestPac
Quoting JamesSA:

This thing just keeps getting bigger. If it strengthens beyond a TS it is going to be a real problem.


Size comparison:

Ike 2008:


Bill 2009:


Compare Alex 2010:
The CLP5 has held it's own throughout the entire development. Corpus continues to look like ground zero for me.
3598. bappit
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not when dealing with a relatively weak system like 01L, but when they send you to do those missions with strong hurricanes, then those are scary.


Been on some of those flights have you?
Quoting taco2me61:
oh by the way BP is now stopping all collections in the Gulf due to the storm....

NOW stopping or will stop if needed?
3,600 comments in 10 hours. If you average it out that means there was an average of 360 comments an hour and 6 comments a minute. I gotta tell ya this is gonna be one helluva year.
Quoting bappit:


Been on some of those flights have you?
No, why?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
3,600 comments in 10 hours. If you average it out that means there was an average of 360 comments an hour and 6 comments a minute. I gotta tell ya this is gonna be one helluva year.



this wait in tell this gets in too the gulf will have like 500 too 1,000 commets an hr
Quoting weatherman566:
Just curious, but can anyone read anything I have posted? I'm starting to feel as if I am being blocked. ???

I cannot see you...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
3,600 comments in 10 hours. If you average it out that means there was an average of 360 comments an hour and 6 comments a minute. I gotta tell ya this is gonna be one helluva year.



YAY 09 was are 3600 post commet
3605. IKE
Junior in his prime....

Quoting Tazmanian:



this wait in tell this gets in too the gulf will have like 500 too 1,000 commets an hr
Utter insanity will take over the blog.
3607. scott39
Whats going to happen with TD/1 when it lands in the GOM and theres no land interaction?
TAFB gave TD-1 a 3.0
SAB gave TD-1 a 2.5

I don't know about you guys.. but I think we're dealing with a TS right now.
Quoting uplater:


The Rainbow show the Water Vapor in the region/AOI ( Area of Interest ), look for the funktop/IR ( infrared ) to see the temperature.


Okay, I'll go look.

Uh oh, I'm fixin' to get a storm. There are some big, black clouds to the northeast. I'll be back.

Thanks again for all your help!
Quoting scott39:
Whats going to happen with TD/1 when it lands in the GOM and theres no land interaction?


No one knows yet. Even the NHC seems uncertain.

EDIT: Oh, you mean with regards to intensity? Still, no one knows. Probably gradual intensification, though.
Quoting scott39:
Whats going to happen with TD/1 when it lands in the GOM and theres no land interaction?


What do you think?
6136 comments and 41 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TAFB gave TD-1 a 3.0
SAB gave TD-1 a 2.5

I don't know about you guys.. but I think we're dealing with a TS right now.
I would agree.
3614. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Utter insanity will take over the blog.
Are you really 13?
Quoting Weather456:
I see we have TD 1.

Welcome back Weather456, I trust you are feeling better now and on your way to a speedy recovery.
Quoting PcolaJess:


where did you see that?
Channel 15 News broke in on Friday Night Lights and said that about 5 min ago....
Quoting scott39:
Are you really 13?
Yes, why?
3618. MZV
Running out of chances to see this on visible. Looks like the CDO has been fleshing out just before sunset, though:
3619. scott39
Quoting Snowlover123:


What do you think?
I think KaBoom!
What I wonder is how big the wind field will be once it grows up. Hopefully not the size of Special K of 2005.
I think you will see TS Alex emerge from the intense convection currently at 16.80N 84.0W.

Very Soon!
TS is pretty immanent.
Quoting taco2me61:
Channel 15 News broke in on Friday Night Lights and said that about 5 min ago....


ugh, was really, really hoping you were wrong lol
Quoting cg2916:
TD 1 is the size of a hurricane!
Stupid comment, Hurricanes come in all sizes, many smaller, some bigger.
3626. Gorty
Quoting MZV:
Running out of chances to see this on visible. Looks like the CDO has been fleshing out just before sunset, though:


Wow, that TD is big! Plus, the whole thing is so organized it looks more like a TS!
3627. uplater
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, why?


prolly because the maturity with which you analyze trends in the ocean and on the internet seriously belies your real age! =)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wont be long and ol Alex will be dying over the Yucatan and will shut everybody up and then have to start ALL OVER again in the Gulf
Sounds reasonable.
3629. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, why?
You seem older than your Quotes.
The news story I saw said BP would have to if the storm became a threat...not that they were shutting down. They did say the cap would come off and takes 5 days to move everything out.
3631. Seastep
Question.

Why would the 18Z models initialize with Celia accurately as an intense cyclone and Darby as a weak TS or TD?

Good, glad I'm not posting stuff for nothing.

Miami-

Did you read my post? It is actually more difficult to fly into an unorganized system, such as a depression or storm, versus flying into a hurricane. They have to get into the center of the storm to get data, and when you are flying in something like 93L, you can run into a lot of turbulence because you do not know where you are flying at exactly. In a hurricane, once you are in the eye, it is smooth sailing. (or flying huh?)


Alternative ADT cyclone image that shows current dvorak intensity for AL01-2010
Quoting MrstormX:
TS is pretty immanent.
With current satellite presentation and estimates mostly ranging in the tropical storm threshold, I think we already have one, unofficially of course.
Canadian model:

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Size comparison:

Ike 2008:


Bill 2009:


Compare Alex 2010:

This is apples and orange
IKE Bill were solidly coalesced cat 5 hurricanes with almost 400nm diameters
Alex maybe is 60 miles condensed 500 miles of mush and the convection near jamaica is from the next wave soon to be best friends with Alex maybe(ok probably)
3637. scott39
Quoting scott39:
You seem older than your Quotes.
I meant the way you Quote.
Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG I SEE A EYE

Did you forget to take your meds today? seriously, just concerned about your posts, there way, way out there!
Quoting PcolaJess:


ugh, was really, really hoping you were wrong lol
well uh I was hoping I was wrong too but I'm not.... They are starting to move all boats out and stop the collection of crude.... From what I'm uderstanding they will be removing the cap from the top of the leak....

Taco :o(
Quoting uplater:


prolly because the maturity with which you analyze trends in the ocean and on the internet seriously belies your real age! =)
Quoting scott39:
You seem older than your Quotes.
Thanks.
3642. uplater
Quoting scott39:
I meant the way you Quote.


LOL, one would hope he is older than his quotes
3643. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting weatherman566:
Good, glad I'm not posting stuff for nothing.

Miami-

Did you read my post? It is actually more difficult to fly into an unorganized system, such as a depression or storm, versus flying into a hurricane. They have to get into the center of the storm to get data, and when you are flying in something like 93L, you can run into a lot of turbulence because you do not know where you are flying at exactly. In a hurricane, once you are in the eye, it is smooth sailing. (or flying huh?)
He may have you on ignore.??
Hi, Ike.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
With current satellite presentation and estimates mostly ranging in the tropical storm threshold, I think we already have one, unofficially of course.


Of course, I agree that you are extremely bright for a 13 yr old... if you keep it up you will be working at the NHC by 21.
3647. twooks
On the next advisory, I expect TS Alex 40 mph...
anything coming down the pipeline after alex, y'all?
Quoting weatherman566:
Good, glad I'm not posting stuff for nothing.

Miami-

Did you read my post? It is actually more difficult to fly into an unorganized system, such as a depression or storm, versus flying into a hurricane. They have to get into the center of the storm to get data, and when you are flying in something like 93L, you can run into a lot of turbulence because you do not know where you are flying at exactly. In a hurricane, once you are in the eye, it is smooth sailing. (or flying huh?)
True, but when in a hurricane you are experiencing much stronger turbulence than in a tropical depression, per se. Yes it is calm when you are in the eye, but what if it is needed to analyze the eye wall?
I hate to criticize here, but why doesn't everyone calm down a little bit and wait to you can string a couple of sentences together that make some sense about the ongoing tropical weather and then post. As when someone posted earlier. if everyone on this blog post three and four word sentences it is going to be hard to follow blog. MAYBE THIS IS THE CONSTRAINT THE DOC NEEDS WHEN THE TROPICS FIRE UP.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, why?
How can he be in a flight ,isn't he 13 years old. Have to congratulate you kid a future John Hope in the making.
3633:

OMG

When I first looked at that, I saw, "Storm Name OIL".

My eyes...oh my eyes...

I thought you had doctored the picture at first as a joke, then it took me a minute to realize it says, "01L".
Quoting GlobalWarming:
anything coming down the pipeline after alex, y'all?


94L might have a shot
Quoting MrstormX:


Of course, I agree that you are extremely bright for a 13 yr old... if you keep it up you will be working at the NHC by 21.
Unless I can get a doctorate degree by the age of 21, it ain't happenin'. Lol.
3655. IKE
Quoting GlobalWarming:
Hi, Ike.


Howdy JFV.....
3656. Gorty
@twooks

I am thinking 50 mph at 11PM
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you drinking taz
Forgot to take his meds.
Quoting jurakantaino:
How can he be in a flight ,isn't he 13 years old. Have to congratulate you kid a future John Hope in the making.
Thanks.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No one knows yet. Even the NHC seems uncertain.

EDIT: Oh, you mean with regards to intensity? Still, no one knows. Probably gradual intensification, though.
Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Trending left?
Quoting gordydunnot:
I hate to criticize here, but why doesn't everyone calm down a little bit and wait to you can string a couple of sentences together that make some sense about the ongoing tropical weather and then post. As when someone posted earlier. if everyone on this blog post three and four word sentences it is going to be hard to follow blog. MAYBE THIS IS THE CONSTRAINT THE DOC NEEDS WHEN THE TROPICS FIRE UP.


I AM SO GLAD YOU TYPED THAT IN ALL CAPS. IT REALLY GOT YOUR POINT ACROSS MUCH BETTER. THANK YOU.
Quoting IKE:


Howdy JFV.....


LOL how'd you guess already?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True, but when in a hurricane you are experiencing much stronger turbulence than in a tropical depression, per se. Yes it is calm when you are in the eye, but what if it is needed to analyze the eye wall?

I do not htink that is 100% true. A hurricane actually does not have a lot of turbulence because it is uniform and the speed is similar around the same path. To have turblence you need rapid change in speed or direction and that doesnt really happen much in a hurricane.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
What I wonder is how big the wind field will be once it grows up. Hopefully not the size of Special K of 2005.

This why the hype and wish casting on here bugs me..
Someone is worried that TD might become a ( I won't say it cause he didn't)
I'd put the chances of that at at about
.0000000001
Quoting GlobalWarming:
anything coming down the pipeline after alex, y'all?


94L has a shot to development, and the wave off Africa has a shot at development. I expect the African wave to develop late next week.
Quoting GlobalWarming:
anything coming down the pipeline after alex, y'all?
JFV, listen, we already know it's you. But yes we are monitoring an area of disturbed weather labeled 94L. It has a 20% chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, as per NHC.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Trending left?


It sure looks like it to me. This is probably a Texmex event.
3668. Michfan
Looks like the early models are getting a handle on it. Will be interesting to see what the later 00Z models spit out.
Quoting CaneWarning:


LOL how'd you guess already?


Ike has the most advanced JFV detector this blog's ever seen.
amazing shots on those floaters!
looks like a couple of Tsar bombs going off
Quoting Patrap:
TD-1
Floater - Visible Loop


NASA MSFC Viewer TD-1
Biggest, baddest non-tropical storm ever.

Link
3672. IKE
I'm surprised there aren't warnings for the northern coast of Honduras. The center is near the coast.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I do not htink that is 100% true. A hurricane actually does not have a lot of turblance because it is uniform and the speed is similar around the same path. To have turblence you need rapid change in speed or direction and that doesnt really happen much in a hurricane.
True but a gust of 150 miles an hour causes more turbulence than a gust of 50 miles per hour.
Quoting scott39:
I think KaBoom!


That's right. Intensification is very likely from this, considering how warm those SSTs are (mid-high 80s)

-Snowy
Quoting CaneWarning:


I AM SO GLAD YOU TYPED THAT IN ALL CAPS. IT REALLY GOT YOUR POINT ACROSS MUCH BETTER. THANK YOU.


LOL.
Quoting extreme236:


Ike has the most advanced JFV detector this blog's ever seen.


yea so advanced, a shower curtain rod hits him in the back of the head when JFV is present lol
Quoting extreme236:


Ike has the most advanced JFV detector this blog's ever seen.


I think JFV and IKE could be related? I notice they both have 3 letter names in all caps. Hmmmm.
Quoting taco2me61:
well uh I was hoping I was wrong too but I'm not.... They are starting to move all boats out and stop the collection of crude.... From what I'm uderstanding they will be removing the cap from the top of the leak....

Taco :o(

thanks for the info, hopefully this thing will do whatever it is going to do quickly so they can get back at it.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True, but when in a hurricane you are experiencing much stronger turbulence than in a tropical depression, per se. Yes it is calm when you are in the eye, but what if it is needed to analyze the eye wall?


The reason I said this is because I had a hurricane Hunter talk to my school about flying into hurricanes, and he said it was definately a lot scarier to fly into a depression/disturbance/storm than into a hurricane. He told us horror stories about flying into a depression one time. He also mentioned that flying into a hurricane was really easy. When I heard this, i was surprised as well. Really interesting!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


94L might have a shot


Yep. Fish-spinner?

Also that large wave off from Africa the last 2 days.
3681. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


LOL how'd you guess already?


Teh cluz wear meny.
NEW BLOG FOLKS
3683. Seastep
Unless someone can answer my earlier question, forget the current model run.

Darby never goes below 1008mb... the entire run.

Not a true (not even close) representation of the atmosphere.
3684. Gorty
@Miamihurricanes

13! Wow!

Are you a tropical weather prodigy? lol.
Quoting extreme236:


Ike has the most advanced JFV detector this blog's ever seen.
It isn't difficult, lol. When StormW comes on he will refer to him as "teh senior chief". And he won't call me MH09 or anything like that, he'll call me "cane" or "brickell boy".
IKE, in a sense I am kinda surprised too... However, it may be because of the strongest winds are located north of the center. There would be no need for a Tropical Storm Warning in that case. Though I bet they may be getting Tropical Storm force wind gusts in squalls.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I do not htink that is 100% true. A hurricane actually does not have a lot of turblance because it is uniform and the speed is similar around the same path. To have turblence you need rapid change in speed or direction and that doesnt really happen much in a hurricane.

not over the water, not much anyway..this being based on being in boats in ones.
on land near any kind of hills and even in the ICW in florida the turbulence can be bad.. on the hilly islands of the caribbean it can be DEVASTATING.
I think it's funny td1 hasn't existed for 5 hours and it has it's own wiki page
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True but a gust of 150 miles an hour causes more turbulence than a gust of 50 miles per hour.

It is the delta that you have to worry about aka the change. If the gust spread is 25kts sustained to 50kts then you will have more than in a hurricane of 140kts gusting 150kts. This is why Tstorms are a major no no to fly in. You can fly in hurricanes.
Quoting IKE:
I'm surprised there aren't warnings for the northern coast of Honduras. The center is near the coast.


Me too. I am on the island Utila on The Bay Islands of Honduras (16.10 86.9N). Our local news is issuing alerts, however.

Good think we are not relying on the NHC!
3692. bwt1982
Liking what I see with these models more and more! Not looking good for Mexico or Central America. Good thing is looks like TD one will mostly be a rain event and just a little wind.
Oh I am sorry can't use the excuse I accidentally locked in the caps . As Steve Martin would say WELL EXCUSE ME!!!(3661)
Quoting sailingallover:

not over the water, not much anyway..this being based on being in boats in ones.
on land near any kind of hills and even in the ICW in florida the turbulence can be bad.. on the hilly islands of the caribbean it can be DEVASTATING.

yes because he hills and mountains cause a change in direction just like mountain wave turb. This also changes the speed. Forces the air up and gives you a tigher gradiant increasing speed near the mountain.
Quoting weatherman566:


The reason I said this is because I had a hurricane Hunter talk to my school about flying into hurricanes, and he said it was definately a lot scarier to fly into a depression/disturbance/storm than into a hurricane. He told us horror stories about flying into a depression one time. He also mentioned that flying into a hurricane was really easy. When I heard this, i was surprised as well. Really interesting!

The uniform flow around a hurricane makes it much more calm in regards to turb while depressions are so scattered you see rapid change in speed and direction since it is so disorganized meaning more turb.
3696. Gorty
Can turbulnace be consider wind shear?
Looks like Alex is hitting the breaks. SLOWING DOWN.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True but a gust of 150 miles an hour causes more turbulence than a gust of 50 miles per hour.
Any pilots out there that can settle this discussion?
Looks like the blog slowed down a lot...
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Looks like the blog slowed down a lot...


noticed that too! Time is standing still!!!!!

LOL
Quoting utilaeastwind:
Looks like Alex is hitting the breaks. SLOWING DOWN.
Why do you say that? Has reported forward speed decreased?
Quoting weathermancer:


noticed that too! Time is standing still!!!!!

LOL


lol
Yeah kinda a lull in the action. I guess people are just watching and waiting right noww for the 11pm update. Then the blog will light up as usual with the "I told you so's"... "See I told you it was coming to (this state)" LOL!
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Why do you say that? Has reported forward speed decreased?


It looks like the westward motion had decreased. I believe Alex is slowing and will then start a rightward motion.

However, I am not a PRO.
Latest imagery sure looks sweet though... really getting its act together. I was kinda doubting it yesterday, but it made a lot of progress today.
Could someone explain the difference between "Early cycle NHC model tracks and late cycle NHC model tracks"?
Based on the last several frames of infrared, along with Dr. Master's blog update and simply the sheer size of this storm combined with it's angle of motion, I have a feeling we are going to hear some terrible reports of flooding in central America.

This is by far some of the most powerful convection I've ever seen in anything that wasn't at least a hurricane.
Looking at the latest IR, TD1 has an....eye LOL, or at least a roundish small dry spot right at the center ;)
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Could someone explain the difference between "Early cycle NHC model tracks and late cycle NHC model tracks"?


b. Early versus Late Models

Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1.

Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models.

Link
If I am not mistaken, someone correct me if I am wrong about the models... but the early models are the statistical models (BAM, LBAR, etc.). The later models are the skilled models (GFS, ECM, etc.). The early models are first to "publish" so to speak. To put it simply, anyways.
Quoting utilaeastwind:


It looks like the westward motion had decreased. I believe Alex is slowing and will then start a rightward motion.

However, I am not a PRO.
Wouldn't a slower forward speed have a tendency is allow TD1 to drift more westward ?
3712. 1965
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True but a gust of 150 miles an hour causes more turbulence than a gust of 50 miles per hour.


Wasn't Dr Masters HH almost lost in Hurricane Hugo? If memory serves, a HH went down in Janet with loss of the entire crew. Penetrating a majors eyewall is serious business from what I have read.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Based on the last several frames of infrared, along with Dr. Master's blog update and simply the sheer size of this storm combined with it's angle of motion, I have a feeling we are going to hear some terrible reports of flooding in central America.

This is by far some of the most powerful convection I've ever seen in anything that wasn't at least a hurricane.


I know they have mentioned the DR today... imagine for a second, this storm over Haiti, pounding away. All those areas down there really suffer with each tropical system that threatens (whether full force or just fringe effects).
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
The news story I saw said BP would have to if the storm became a threat...not that they were shutting down. They did say the cap would come off and takes 5 days to move everything out.


Yes... and it takes 5-days to move everything back. During that 10-day period, the pipe will keep discharging 700,000+ gallons/day of oil into the gulf.

I actually think BP can move out within a 3-day window if needed. The problem they will have is that this is an active season. They will have to mob-demob several times during the summer. This is going to get old really fast. If there is enough of a wave train coming through the Caribbean into the Gulf... they could even just suspend operations for a month or so.

The oil spill disaster is getting ready to move up to a new level of BAD!

Pinhole eye

17.5N 85W
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


b. Early versus Late Models

Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC forecast cycle, which begins with the 1200 UTC synoptic time and ends with the release of an official forecast at 1500 UTC. The 1200 UTC run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 1600 UTC, an hour after the forecast is released. Thus, the 1200 UTC GFS would be considered a "late" model since it could not be used to prepare the 1200 UTC official forecast. Conversely, the BAM models are generally available within a few minutes of the time they are initialized. Therefore, they are termed "early" models. Model timeliness is listed in Table 1.

Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast so that it applies to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (0600 UTC) run of the GFS would be smoothed and then adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 1200 UTC) would match the observed 1200 UTC position and intensity of the TC. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model that becomes part of the most current available guidance for the 1200 UTC forecast cycle. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, largely for historical reasons, as "interpolated" models.

Link
Very detailed. thank you.
Blog slowed down because Dr. Masters just released a new blog.
Quoting Michfan:


Wow, the MAIN storm area is now 10 deg wide. The storm just keeps converging and expanding into its own feeder bands.

Quoting taco2me61:
Well with all due respect, If this storm hits the Texas coast it will bring Oil not only to LA but MS, AL and FL will get the Oilly Mess.... Because of the counter clock wise movement the waves from the east side of the storm move north. So all the oil just to the south of FL,AL and MS will move north....

Taco :o(


I'd hate to think how the toxic sludge will affect the wetlands and some of the whitest beaches in the world. If the oil becomes concentrated this could heat up the northeastern Gulf further.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Wouldn't a slower forward speed have a tendency is allow TD1 to drift more westward ?


Once the LLC is solid we will start seeing the rightward motion. Without the LLC it can keep drifting west.
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
If I am not mistaken, someone correct me if I am wrong about the models... but the early models are the statistical models (BAM, LBAR, etc.). The later models are the skilled models (GFS, ECM, etc.). The early models are first to "publish" so to speak. To put it simply, anyways.
Thank you.
Depends for how long it sits there, and how strong/weak the system is as to where it will go.
Really, thanks weatherman
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Really, thanks weatherman


your welcome... I think?
That central dense hot tower overcast is twice the size of Jamaica. NEW BLOG!!!
3725. centex
The only problem I have is the quoted NW movement. Do they think we are blind? All the relocation stuff does not mean NW. Storms move with the flow, tell me how that is NW? Its plain wrong to quote NW. When it goes S of Cozumel they still will not correct this error tell us how they were right. Goes to show how even experts can and are sometimes wrong. They post WNW track but quote NW movement. Guess it is supposed to move W later when conditions make it go more west when stronger. I just hate this kind of thing.
Dr Masters has a new blog
The Mountains of Honduras and Nicaragua are really taking heavy rain now. That's got be mudslide city right now.


The Central Honduran Coast is quite mountainous, got to expect that to be an inhibitor on the to be named Alex once it's raking close along the coast the next 24 hrs.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Alternative ADT cyclone image that shows current dvorak intensity for AL01-2010


Haha Did anyone notice that on the graphic they reference the disturbance as O1L? Looks alot like OIL. Ironic, I think.
3729. hcubed
Quoting CaneWarning:


I think JFV and IKE could be related? I notice they both have 3 letter names in all caps. Hmmmm.


So does the expressions JFV and LOL.

Both are used when mentioning a joke...