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93L drenching Belize, May Have Time to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:41 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

A well-organized tropical disturbance (93L) is centered over the northwest coast of Honduras, in association with a tropical wave that is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The wave's center of circulation will move over water for about 4 - 6 hours this afternoon, before moving ashore over Belize. This may be long enough for 93L to become a tropical depression or tropical storm, as satellite loops show that the system is well-organized, has plenty of spin, has good upper-level outflow to the north, and has a large of amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal converge. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C. NHC is giving the disturbance a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 60%. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 93L.

The wave will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday, and may emerge into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--on Tuesday night or Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the center of 93L ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico late in the week. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate through Wednesday. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so I expect this storm will become a tropical depression or tropical storm if its center moves over water in the Bay of Campeche. The center may remain just inland, though, keeping the storm from developing. There is no indication from the models that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the storm's rainfall confined to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doc
93L up on NRL Monterey (finally created a ATCF TCWEB file).
Thanks Doc !!
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
93L up on NRL Monterey (finally created a ATCF TCWEB file).


Happy Days :)!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Ah, before it was "little chance," but now it has a chance.

Carefully worded statements can't be wrong.
Thanks, Dr Masters.
Thanks. Nice day shaping up in Southern Illinois!! :)

Natalie / Southern Illinois
NRL Site

Click to enlarge

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters.


Hi, saw your reply to me about gridding before the blog changed. The 925 mb map I posted was from Penn State ( TROPICAL ATLANTIC ) and that was in agreement with the 850 mb map from UW.
invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al022013.ren 17-Jun-2013 14:36 1.4K
The doc has 3 in 5 odds of at least a TD forming today, I know that gets everybody excited!
AL, 02, 2013061712, , BEST, 0, 160N, 871W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,
Well that was quick.
AL, 02, 2013061712, 160N, 871W, 30, 1008, TD
.
I don't want to be the guy who says that it escalated quickly, but that escalated REALLY quickly.



A straight shot, 40% to TD. Now the recon mission becomes a question of wind speed to determine if Barry forms as well.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 02, 2013061712, 160N, 871W, 30, 1008, TD


Navy site has it up
Thanks Dr.Masters!
93L just got upgraded to TD2.
Looks good.
Thanks, Doc.
Those coordinates place it almost on the coast just over Roatan in agreement with the vort maps I posted.

It might just make TS status before going ashore but not much time left for that
Thanks Doc!
That was a random renumber...


Awfully lopsided on microwave, so we shouldn't be seeing too much strengthening today, as time is an extremely limiting factor.
Radar probably got it upgraded.


(click)
27. SLU
I agree with the numbering of TD 2. A closed low appears to exist on radar and Roatan reported 35mph winds this morning..

Thank you Dr. Masters for the updated blog..
A modest start so far this T/C..
We all know how quickly that can change..
Mexico will welcome the much needed rainfall..
Thanks again..
Quoting FutureWx6221:
I don't want to be the guy who says that it escalated quickly, but that escalated REALLY quickly.



A straight shot, 40% to TD. Now the recon mission becomes a question of wind speed to determine if Barry forms as well.

If Recon can make it in time, which it hopefully does.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT MON 17 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-017

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1645Z C. 19/0800Z
D. 19.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 94.5W
E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE BAY OF HONDURAS FOR
17/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1230Z
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1500 UTC MON JUN 17 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Wow I did not expect that
We are moving really fast this season
not a good sign if we have so many shear resistant storms
Thanks Doc..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Radar probably got it upgraded.


(click)


I think one look at the low Cloud product would have done it personally
Nexsat Caribbean Low cloud

Click to enlarge


From the older blog!!!!
93L, will be a tropical Depresion just before landfall in Belize, I disagree respectfully with the NHC with the 40% of chance...When the system reemerges in BoC in 24 hours, will have time enough (36-48 hours) to re-strengthened and becomes Barry..




And on a downward MJO phase
recon gonna make sure it is over water before going it looks like
Thank You Dr; you are bullish on 93L in the short term based on very good satellite presentation. Regardless of the lack of a threat to the US, the proximity and access to plenty of moisture and fuel from the Caribbean and BOC, if significant banding forms, means life threatening mudslides and flash flooding for our friends in Honduras/Belize/Nicaragua/that portion of Mexico Yucatan pending emergence into the BOC downstream.

It's a painfully slow mover at present that may cause lots of flooding deaths if folks are not careful down there.

Modis Aqua Water Vapor/IR..

The TD heading is WNW or 20 degrees N of West. This is a 3W to 1N ratio. It won't make the BoC on that track unless it turns more northerly. It needs to average a 2W to 1N ratio or lower to make the BoC.
Quoting K-Man- Good morning to you too.

Actually a lawyer by profession but have been fascinated by tropical systems from childhood. I guess after you have seen hundreds of them you become an armchair meteorologist :-).

I learned a lot from watching some of the really great forecasters in the early days of the Weather Channel before the internet existed. Guys like John Hope didn't just give you the forecast for a system, he explained why. Two of his more well known guides were:

1. If you have a developing system in the NW Caribbean, look for a West wind in Puerto Cabezas to determine if a closed low is or has developed.

2. A wave that has not developed before entering the Eastern Caribbean is unlikely to develop before reaching the Western Caribbean.

Number 2 in particular has withstood the test of time over and over again.

hydrus--I too remember those days. I became interested in weather after Hurricane Belle in 76. It did a considerable amount of damage in N.J where my Grandparents lived on the coast, which I was there to witness as it happened. I have read up on Grady Norton , Gordon Dunn , John Hope and Robert Simpson ( who is 100 years old now ) who are just some of the extraordinary tropical Mets that have a uncanny, but very talented gift for forecasting tropical cyclones.......Here is a link about Robert Simpson...Link
Quoting wxchaser97:

If Recon can make it in time, which it hopefully does.


Taking into account flight time from Biloxi, Recon would not get on station until long after the system has moved beyond the Invest position tasked yesterday for today. As tightly confined as the flight would be deep into the GOH I would not be surprised if Recon gets cancelled.The TD is already moving beyond the 17 / 87 position in yesterdays TCPOD for today.
Thank You Dr. Masters!

"...There is no indication from the
models that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high
pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical
wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the storm's
rainfall confined to Mexico."

Would this indicate the emergence of a 2013Texas Death Ridge?
Quoting kmanislander:


Taking into account flight time from Biloxi, Recon would not get on station until long after the system has moved beyond the Invest position tasked yesterday for today. As tightly confined as the flight would be deep into the GOH I would not be surprised if Recon gets cancelled.The TD is already moving beyond the 17 / 87 position in yesterdays POTD for today.


looking at the potd its already canceled for today
I step out for two minutes and TD2 forms, you guys..
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 161507
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 16 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-016

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1700Z
D. 17.0N 87.0W
E. 17/1930-2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION FOR 18/2000Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 91.5W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
Quoting Patrap:


A picture paints a thousand words !
The NHC forecast states that it won't make it to tropical storm strength before reaching the Yucatan, but this system still has about 8-12 hours left over water meaning it can still consolidate further and organize before hitting land. I could definitely see recon finding TS force winds when they investigate it this afternoon.
Out of town, so keep me up to date on the recon data!
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE BAY OF HONDURAS FOR
17/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1230Z
53. kmanislander

Indeed,

..hiya counselor'
I disagree with the NHC, storms in the BoC have a tendency to wind up a lot quicker than anticipated, especially near the coast. I think it may become a 45kt Tropical Storm before landfall.
Quoting will40:


looking at the potd its already canceled for today


Didn't see that. My bad.
Hurricane Reconnaissance Organizations (The Hurricane Hunters)

53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
403rd Wing, Air Force Reserve Command
Keesler Air Force Base, Biloxi, Mississippi

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, known as the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve, is the only Department of Defense organization still flying into tropical storms and hurricanes – since 1944. The ten Lockheed-Martin WC-130J aircraft and crews are part of the 403rd Wing, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.

NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa, Florida

The Aircraft Operations Center is a Center of the NOAA Marine and Aviation Office. The airplanes of the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) are flown in support of NOAA's mission to promote global environmental assessment, prediction and stewardship of the Earth's environment. NOAA's aircraft operate throughout the United States and around the world; over open oceans, mountains, coastal wetlands, and Arctic pack ice. These versatile aircraft provide scientists with airborne platforms necessary to collect the environmental and geographic data essential to their research.
Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 161507
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 16 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-016

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1700Z
D. 17.0N 87.0W
E. 17/1930-2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION FOR 18/2000Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 91.5W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW



ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1645Z C. 19/0800Z
D. 19.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 94.5W
E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


theres what i have Pat
56. Patrap

Another year rolls around and this one looking interesting already.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 171509
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS
INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF TRACKS.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.2N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Will move around a bit over the next two days, but doesn't look any better than 50/50 for it making the BoC. Looks just as likely, if not more, to turn south actually.

They axed today's flight,..not surprisng
The meat of the matter..

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF TRACKS.


So dont discount timing changing downstream on Steering. Lotsa Mojo in 93L yet to come.
Taking a break now. Only a few hours to watch this one folks. Have a great day, may check in a little later.
Cancun looking wonderful this morning...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT MON 17 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-017

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1645Z C. 19/0800Z
D. 19.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 94.5W
E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE BAY OF HONDURAS FOR
17/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1230Z

Am I reading that right? Is recon cancelled for today?
Quoting kmanislander:
56. Patrap

Another year rolls around and this one looking interesting already.


Yeppars on dat Kman.



I know your prepared for a Busy season down there.


Quoting sar2401:

Am I reading that right? Is recon cancelled for today?


Yes.
Quoting sar2401:

Am I reading that right. Is recon cancelled for today?


It's on top of a radar station. You don't need recon.
So far the NHC is batting 2 for 3 on the Invests that turn into storms count, not bad.
As I mentioned yesterday, if this become Barry before eventual second land fall in Mexico if it gets into the BOC, this is quite the start to the Atlantic season.

That "inverse relationship" between the Atlantic Season and E-Pac season, in this overlap period, as documented by Klotzbach is alive and well at the moment.

Notice that there is little activity in the E-Pac at the moment and the general contention is that the two basins (in this close proximity area between the SW Caribbean and E-Pac just off the coast of Mexico on the other side) can't usually sustain two strong and viable systems at the same time due to the dominance of any particular one on the large scale synoptic patterns in the region.

Given these current events, we might expect two possible outcomes for July; an increase in E-pac activity and a lull on the Atlantic side after this storm, or, a lull on the E-Pac side and perhaps an unprecedented one or two additional SW Atlantic or Gulf storms in July.

Wow.

Quoting RTSplayer:


It's on top of a radar station. You don't need recon.


and more of a fact they gonna wait untill it is over water
I have seen many storms rapidly intensify in the area T.D. 2 is located...many.
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 171455
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT MON 17 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-017

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1645Z C. 19/0800Z
D. 19.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 94.5W
E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE BAY OF HONDURAS FOR
17/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
The NHC forecast states that it won't make it to tropical storm strength before reaching the Yucatan, but this system still has about 8-12 hours left over water meaning it can still consolidate further and organize before hitting land. I could definitely see recon finding TS force winds when they investigate it this afternoon.
Out of town, so keep me up to date on the recon data!

Looks like there won't be any recon data today. Big mistake to cancel, IMHO.
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


click Image for Loop


Well that escalated quickly... :-)

Quoting hydrus:
I have seen many storms rapidly intensify in the area T.D. 2 is located...many.


I love those macro-view images. I'll second that statement about rapid intensification in the area. There is certainly enough fuel in the region. TD2 also has some nice cold tops forming. Is it just me or have more cyclonic waves formed closer to the equator over the last seven or so years?