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93L a possible threat to the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2012

A large tropical wave (Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 1000 miles southeast of Bermuda. Satellite loops this morning show a surface circulation attempting to form, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly since Monday. Wind shear is light, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 27.5°C. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L has moistened its environment considerably, but dry air is still a significant impediment to development. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry through Wednesday, then moisten considerably. The storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. By Saturday, as 93L is headed northeastwards towards the Azores Islands, the GFS and NOGPAS models predict development into a tropical depression. Residents of the Azores Islands should keep an eye on 93L, which could pass close to the islands as early as Sunday night. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. Given the recent increase in 93L's organization, I put these odds at 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L over the Central Atlantic.

Ex-TD-7 not a threat to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven are headed westward at 20 mph across the Western Caribbean, and will bring heavy rain to Honduras and Nicaragua today. These heavy rains will spread to northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Although wind shear is low and ocean temperatures high, there is not going to be enough time for ex-TD 7 to develop before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. None of the reliable models forecasts that ex-TD 7 will regenerate, and in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Watch the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The GFS model has been showing some development may occur in the waters close to shore near the Texas/Mexico border early next week.

I'll have a new post early this afternoon. What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You Dr. Masters,
Watching the GOM for sure..
Quoting Jeff Masters:
What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?


High enough (they are above 0%) that I would die laughing if it happens.
Thanks Doc.
Thanks, Dr. Good question!
Thanks for the update, Dr Masters!
Thanks DRM. Be interesting to see if the GFS calls this one right. :)
Thanks Dr. Masters, should be heating up soon in the Atlantic.
Thanks Doc.I'll be happy when 93L turns today.
Thank You Dr. Any thoughts, based on data that you might be privy to or analyzing, as to the current lack of any significant ITCZ activity and whether it going to moisten up any time soon? A little weird to see it so dry out there, and almost non-existent, going into mid-August.

Thank You.
Still got to watch the northern part of ex td 7 as it'll try to head in the boc to meet up with the moisture its there already.
Thx Doc....

Would be hilarious to get a MH for the RNC and a tornado/damaging severe weather event for the DNC....

As a repub, i would still laugh at both...

McCain Cancels Most Events on RNC's Day 1
BUT GOP EYES GUSTAV



(NEWSER) – As Hurricane Gustav bore down on the Gulf Coast today, John McCain announced a drastically curtailed schedule for the opening day of the convention that will anoint him his party's presidential nominee, CNN reports. But as organizers stripped a grandiose event down to the bare minimum, Politico reports that Republicans are looking for a silver lining in Gustav's ominous clouds—Katrina redemption.
Morbid though it may be, the storm “shows McCain dealing with a surprise — a big event that has consequences on people,” a convention planner said. “It’s redemption for the Republican Party on the competence issue. The convention ends up being about John McCain showing the best way to serve a cause greater than yourself.”
Quoting jeffs713:


High enough (they are above 0%) that I would die laughing if it happens.


Oh, man. Can we keep the political angle out of this? I wouldn't die laughing to see any city the size of Tampa being evacuated.
is the GFS the model that has been the most reliable so far this season?
Quoting sar2401:


Oh, man. Can we keep the political angle out of this? I wouldn't die laughing to see any city the size of Tampa being evacuated.

That's obviously the moral high ground on this political issue.
Quoting sar2401:


Oh, man. Can we keep the political angle out of this? I wouldn't die laughing to see any city the size of Tampa being evacuated.

There is no political angle. I would die laughing if the DNC was in Miami and had to evacuate. Not because of people evacuating (which always sucks), but because of the convention. Both conventions are basically run by the media, for the media. They have very little to do with actually choosing candidates, since that has already been done via voting.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
is the GFS the model that has been the most reliable so far this season?


No expert here but I think so. It did pretty well with Debby. Even when everyone else, including me, thought it was wrong. :)
from last blog


Morning guys look at EX-TD7 well got to tell ya it dose look much better than yesterday late evening and last night but still look bad in organisation and looks like it want land bad well if it can survive and enter the GOM it could be a really bad system I think it will ride up the Coast of MEX then turn E riding along the coasts of TX,LA,MISS,AL,and Fl landfall in FL then turn NE after leaving FL, impacting Georgia S & N Carolina then moves out Atlantic



Quoting seafarer459:
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode= form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a1915 0cb&_cvi ew=0


I have no Idea but that sound like my kinda stuff also they may need to get about 13,000 round of .40cal tracer rounds oh yeah don't forget the rifles amd M203 launchers
also to add 93L looking better than before and I geuss 93L will steal the name Gordon from EX-TD7
Quoting hurricanehanna:
is the GFS the model that has been the most reliable so far this season?


It has been in terms of track, once a storm has actually formed. I believe the GFDL has been better at cyclogenisis.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


No expert here but I think so. It did pretty well with Debby. Even when everyone else, including me, thought it was wrong. :)

thanks :) will definitely be watching the GOM this weekend.
.. Strong thunderstorms will affect Bucks... Burlington... Camden...
Cumberland... Delaware... Gloucester... Philadelphia and Salem
counties...

At 1002 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles west of
Gloucester City to 13 miles southeast of Wilmington to 10 miles
northwest of Bridgeton... moving northeast at 20 mph. The
thunderstorms will be near Drexel Hill... Morris Park around 1015
am... Roxborough... south Philadelphia around 1030 am... Kensington...
Center City around 1045 am... Wissinoming... Tacony around 1100 am...
Bensalem and Andalusia around 1115 am.

Very heavy rain will fall from these storms... and will cause water to
pond on roads and quickly fill poor drainage areas.

Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with these storms with cloud to
ground lightning strikes.

Lat... Lon 3987 7484 3956 7494 3940 7545 3944 7548
3958 7541 3979 7542 3979 7541 3994 7543
3999 7529 3998 7527 4001 7521 4002 7522
4006 7512 4005 7510 4007 7510 4018 7481
@seafarer459,

To protect against WU bloggers when storms don't go their way :).




This comes from the Central Caribbean as a low and moves over the Yucatan into the BOC. LOOP

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
western Bucks County in southeast Pennsylvania...
Montgomery County in southeast Pennsylvania...
west central Philadelphia County in southeast Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeast Pennsylvania...
northeastern Chester County in southeast Pennsylvania...

* until 100 PM EDT

* at 956 am EDT Doppler radar indicated a line of thunderstorms
moving towards the east-northeast at 20 mph. These storms are
producing very heavy rainfall with estimates of over an inch in the
past hour with another inch possible over the next hour.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams... and ponding of water in urban areas...
highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.


Lat... Lon 4042 7514 4030 7500 4008 7516 3993 7525
3982 7540 3986 7574 4019 7562 4035 7552
4047 7540 4052 7529


Heavener
6z gfs ensmemble members
Link
Quoting jeffs713:

There is no political angle. I would die laughing if the DNC was in Miami and had to evacuate. Not because of people evacuating (which always sucks), but because of the convention. Both conventions are basically run by the media, for the media. They have very little to do with actually choosing candidates, since that has already been done via voting.


No political angle? Forget a convention, whether it's a political party or the Girl Scouts. A mass evacuation of Tampa in advance of a major hurricane would be a nightmare. This not the place to mix politics and weather.
As an, other side of the pond dweller I will be watching this one 93L
Rainbow


Funktop


water vapour

LOL! Doc that would be something for sure. Talk about putting a hit in the RNC.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
6z gfs ensmemble members


They didn't show up on my screen. But it may just be my computer. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


They didn't show up on my screen. But it may just be my computer. :)


Didn't show up on mine either.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


They didn't show up on my screen. But it may just be my computer. :)

Interesting lol well I changed it to a link to see all of them now.
Quoting AussieStorm:




This comes from the Central Caribbean as a low and moves over the Yucatan into the BOC. LOOP


if you talkin that storm in the GOM its come from the Western Caribbean not the Central and that which it is coming from is EX-TD7

also to note on the model it also show a 1010mb low in the E caribbean coming in with some good rain not as much as EX-TD7 of corse
Central America and parts of Mexico may end up with rain they really dont need.
Quoting seafarer459:
Why in God's name, does the National Weather service need 16,000 rounds of .40 cal hollow point ammunition?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode= form &tab=core&id=bfd95987a1ad9a6dfb22bca4a1915 0cb&_cvi ew=0


My browser shows this as a bad link. I'll take a guess. NOAA/NWS has a sizeable police force covering its various facilities. As an example, NCAR and other NOAA facilities in Boulder, CO, have a 34 person police force alone. 16,000 rounds may sound like a lot but we used about 500 rounds a year per officer just for practice and qualifying/requalifying. That's about enough ammo for 32 officers, so I suspect it's just a replenshment request.
Quoting jeffs713:

There is no political angle. Both conventions are basically run by the media, for the media. They have very little to do with actually choosing candidates, since that has already been done via voting.

I remember when the Republican convention had a landslide for Eisenhower. (Hello, Grothar!) Hawaii and Puerto Rico, instead of casting votes, announced they were casting pineapples and coconuts. Conventions then were not usually a foregone conclusion. That was also the first time (perhaps since the Civil War, but I don't remember that) that Texas went Republican.

Wishcasting (bringing this back to topic): I would love to see the Gulf bring us just a little Tropical Storm on the coast. No tornadoes, no great damage, just a lot of heavy rain.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Interesting lol well I changed it to a link to see all of them now.


Nice thanks! :)
IMO it's going to be hard ignoring the gfs cause its been showing this potential system for days now although the one showing it. Chances of this happening is increasing every run now so I would watch this.
Thanks Jeff...

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES
OVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C
WATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME
LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Quoting AussieStorm:




This comes from the Central Caribbean as a low and moves over the Yucatan into the BOC. LOOP
Would Love to see this happen as Low as Our Water Levels are here
Quoting lhwhelk:

I remember when the Republican convention had a landslide for Eisenhower. (Hello, Grothar!) Hawaii and Puerto Rico, instead of casting votes, announced they were casting pineapples and coconuts. Conventions then were not usually a foregone conclusion. That was also the first time (perhaps since the Civil War, but I don't remember that) that Texas went Republican.

Wishcasting (bringing this back to topic): I would love to see the Gulf bring us just a little Tropical Storm on the coast. No tornadoes, no great damage, just a lot of heavy rain.
That is a real possibility with the MJO returning, the pattern we are in, and a front that should stall in the gulf.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
from last blog


Morning guys look at EX-TD7 well got to tell ya it dose look much better than yesterday late evening and last night but still look bad in organisation and looks like it want land bad well if it can survive and enter the GOM it could be a really bad system I think it will ride up the Coast of MEX then turn E riding along the coasts of TX,LA,MISS,AL,and Fl landfall in FL then turn NE after leaving FL, impacting Georgia S & N Carolina then moves out Atlantic


WKC, you're nothing if not persistent. :) A nice, non-threatening tropical storm would be welcome along most of the Gulf coast. Most of Alabama is still in a moderate to severe drought. I think the chance of ex-07 doing anything but dying over central Mexico is pretty small but we'll see.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

Just read this article about mutant butterflies in Japan from the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011

Link
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
IMO it's going to be hard ignoring the gfs cause its been showing this potential system for days now although the one showing it. Chances of this happening is increasing every run now so I would watch this.


This may help explain why it's on its own. From Levi via Facebook...Thanks Levi :)

Check out the precipitation bomb the GFS ensemble mean has off the Texas coast in 7 days. I believe the other models aren't seeing this because they have the low pressure farther west over Mexico. Sometimes certain models can also miss development due to the giant presence of the Mexican monsoonal low, which can mask small-scale development. This pattern is worth watching this weekend into next week.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


This may help explain why it's on its own. From Levi via Facebook...Thanks Levi :)

Check out the precipitation bomb the GFS ensemble mean has off the Texas coast in 7 days. I believe the other models aren't seeing this because they have the low pressure farther west over Mexico. Sometimes certain models can also miss development due to the giant presence of the Mexican monsoonal low, which can mask small-scale development. This pattern is worth watching this weekend into next week.


Wow!! Very Interesting indeed it's worth watching!
Quoting lhwhelk:

I remember when the Republican convention had a landslide for Eisenhower. (Hello, Grothar!) Hawaii and Puerto Rico, instead of casting votes, announced they were casting pineapples and coconuts. Conventions then were not usually a foregone conclusion. That was also the first time (perhaps since the Civil War, but I don't remember that) that Texas went Republican.

Wishcasting (bringing this back to topic): I would love to see the Gulf bring us just a little Tropical Storm on the coast. No tornadoes, no great damage, just a lot of heavy rain.


Hey, I remember that convention too. It was 1956, and I was 10 years old. That was just after dinosaurs stopped roaming the earth. :) Lyndon Johnson started a trend of holding conventions is resort cities in 1964, when the Democratic convention was held in Atlantic City. Before that, it was usually Chicago, Kansas City, or Philadelphia. That was back in the days that conventions were held as paybacks to whatever party machine was strongest.
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?
where is the front predicted to stall in the GOM???? east or west of the la/tx line???
The Blob in the BOC is showing signs of growth after the Great Blobular Fizzle over night...

Rainbow



Funktop



WEATHER BULLETIN #9
TROPICAL STORM “HELEN” (KAI-TAK)
ISSUED @9:30PM, 14 AUGUST 2012

TROPICAL STORM “HELEN” HAS ACCELERATED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE ISABELA – CAGAYAN AREA.

Location of eye/center: At 9:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “HELEN” was located at 120 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City (17.1°N, 123.1°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 17 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Storm “HELEN” is expected to be at 110 km West of Laoag City by tomorrow evening and at 470 km West Northwest of Laoag City by Thursday evening.

Public Storm Warning Signal#2:
Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Abra and Batanes Group of Islands.

Public Storm Warning Signal#1:
Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Tarlac, La Union and Rest of Aurora

*Estimated rainfall amount is from 20 – 35 mm per hour (intense - torrential) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

*Moderate to heavy rains (7.5 – 10.0 mm/hr) in Quezon province, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Mindoro, Bataan, Zambales, Pangasinan, Tarlac and Metro Manila becoming intermittent light to moderate rains (2.5 – 7.5 mm/hr) over the rest of Central and Southern Luzon.

*Tropical Storm “Helen” will enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Luzon and Visayas especially over the western section.

*Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas due to Tropical Storm “Helen” and the Southwest Monsoon.
I mean to say it was interesting and little scary how Dr. Masters asked a question about a hurricane at that time frame. sometimes I wonder if he thinks something could form and move east towards western florida?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Mutant butterflies a result of Fukushima nuclear disaster, researchers say


Thats Really Sad Aussie ! Thank you for sharing it
Good Morning Pat

the best way to serve a cause greater than yourself

i like these words
93L reminds me of Gert.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting ncstorm:
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?


Not if you lived in Tampa. That area has to be one of the worst in America when it comes to getting people out in the face of a major hurricane.
Quoting ncstorm:
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?


Why in the world would we hope for that to happen, the convention is a great time for politics. Im a democrat but still like watching all the conventions, especially this year as im voting against Obama
Thanks for the update, Jeff.
Well except the somewhat incendiary, somewhat insensitive question at the end (even if I'm also sick of hearing the endless blabber by Repubs of cutting govt spending which in truth equates to slashing FUNDING)... but, let's see - at 13-16 days out, yet entering the peak of hurricane season, Tampa's chance any given year at this point will always be - non-zero percent...

The upcoming stalled cold front scenario, esp how persistent the present synoptic pattern is shaping up, does bear watching - 1983's Alicia formed from just such a set-up... becoming quite a strong Cat 3 causing considerable damage to Houston, and also unusual as developed within a normally stable / relatively high sfc pressure regime.
Quoting VR46L:


Thats Really Sad Aussie ! Thank you for sharing it

I'm surprise it's happened so quickly, but i guess the lifetime of a Caterpillar to butterfly is pretty quick so for a mutation to appear is reasonable.
The unusually strong front coming down in 96 hrs has
996mb Low at its Northern end and a 1022mb High building in behind it...strange for August..

Link
Quoting kshipre1:
I mean to say it was interesting and little scary how Dr. Masters asked a question about a hurricane at that time frame. sometimes I wonder if he thinks something could form and move east towards western florida?


Dr. Masters has mentioned this several times in his blog over the past two months. I don't think he sees anything about to happen. He's just going to look at the statistical probability of a major hurricane hitting the Tampa area at the end of August.
93L still going!!.Now would you look at that?.Has even organized.Seems it will win the race to become Gordon.
Quoting sar2401:


Not if you lived in Tampa. That area has to be one of the worst in America when it comes to getting people out in the face of a major hurricane.

When was the last time Tampa had to evac for a hurricane??? Long time ago I'm guessing.
Quoting sar2401:


Not if you lived in Tampa. That area has to be one of the worst in America when it comes to getting people out in the face of a major hurricane.


nola is hard also but nyc would be the hardest....
A Hurricane doesn't have to Strike Tampa during the RNC Convention, or the DNC one as well.

It only has to be strong Cane and threaten the US Coastline to bring about changes at a Convention.

Gustav did that only 4 years ago.


Aug 30, 2008 4:08pm
McCain: Hurricane Gustav May Suspend RNC



ABC News’ Karen Travers reports: In an interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace that will air Sunday morning, Sen. John McCain indicated that the GOP convention could be suspended because of Hurricane Gustav.
"It wouldn’t be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster," McCain told Wallace.
McCain said that he has been in touch with the governors of the Gulf Coast states—where Gustav is expected to make landfall—and that his campaign would continue to monitor the now-Category 4 storm.
"I’m afraid, Chris, that we may have to look at that situation and we’ll try and monitor it. I’ve been talking to Governors Jindal [La.], Barbour [Miss.], Riley [Ala.], Crist [Fla.], I’ve been talking to all of them," McCain told Wallace. "So we’re monitoring it from day to day and I’m saying a few prayers too."
A Republican convention official tells ABC News, however, that at this point, there are no plans to cancel the convention but there are several contingency plans that are being looked at in terms of delegation travel and the program of speakers. Both Crist and Jindal are scheduled to speak at the convention this week, but no decisions have been made yet on their plans to come to Minneapolis-Saint Paul.
This official says the Republican National Convention Committee is "still moving forward with opening the convention on Monday" as planned and notes that there is official business that has to happen at the convention, like the actual nomination of John McCain and the platform ratification.
The RNCC has issued the following statement from 2008 Republican National Convention President and CEO Maria Cino:
"Like all Americans, our prayers are with those who will be affected by Hurricane Gustav. We continue to closely monitor the movement of the storm and are considering necessary contingencies. We are in communication with the Gulf state governors to make sure the convention is taking all the appropriate steps as the hurricane progresses. The safety of our affected delegations is our first priority and preparing for Gustav comes before anything else."
What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Dr. M, I think the correct answer is 50%. It may happen, it may not.
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

Just read this article about mutant butterflies in Japan from the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 2011

Link

Your link is not working
Quoting sar2401:


Not if you lived in Tampa. That area has to be one of the worst in America when it comes to getting people out in the face of a major hurricane.


My son was actually in Tampa when Charley was supposed to hit them head on..but I wasnt hoping so much about Tampa itself but the convention having to be cancelled..
What are the chances of a hurricane forcing the evacuation of the RNC??,maybe a hurricane of greed and corruption,a wx hurricane ,statistically speaking:as close to zero as you can get,Tampa's never had a hurricane landfall in the entire month of august in recorded history link,Im personally forecasting cat 5 flood surge of money at the RNC, chances are near 100%
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm surprise it's happened so quickly, but i guess the lifetime of a Caterpillar to butterfly is pretty quick so for a mutation to appear is reasonable.


humans are pregnant for 9 months. what will happen with the babies of that area?
Quoting canehater1:
The unusually strong front coming down in 96 hrs has
996mb Low at its Northern end and a 1022mb High building in behind it...strange for August..

Link


The GFS has started backing off on the southern penetration of the front forecast to be here in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. I'd take some nice cool air like we had last Sunday, but I don't think the front is going to make it to the GOM this time.
Quoting AussieStorm:

When was the last time Tampa had to evac for a hurricane??? Long time ago I'm guessing.


Hurricane Elana 1985
Quoting AussieStorm:

Your link is not working


Well then, I'm glad you posted it Aussie! Thank you.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Thanks for the update, Jeff.
Well except the somewhat incendiary, somewhat insensitive question at the end...
Not sure how the question Dr. Masters asked was insensitive, much less incendiary. The RNC itself asked that very question while planning and readying for the convention:

Weather a concern at GOP convention

RNC organizers prepare for Florida heat, hurricanes

The thing is, virtually any place in hurricane alley where large groups of people meet has contingency and/or emergency plans in the event of a tropical storm strike. Disney World, countless school districts, the Orange County Convention Center--all of them and many others study the climatology in consideration of what is possible weather-wise. It's neither insensitive nor incendiary to talk about it. In fact, ignoring it would seem to be the insensitive thing to do...
Quoting sar2401:


No political angle? Forget a convention, whether it's a political party or the Girl Scouts. A mass evacuation of Tampa in advance of a major hurricane would be a nightmare. This not the place to mix politics and weather.

If that is the case, you should bring your concerns up with Dr. Masters about his blog, and how he mentions it.

I was simply trying to make light of it, and not get all controversially political with the comment. You took it COMPLETELY the wrong way, blew it out of proportion, and got what looks to be terribly bent out of shape over it. I've been through areas that have been evacuated for a storm. Been through a storm, too. It isn't fun. I wouldn't curse it on anyone. You've been here long enough to know that I am one of the people that goes off on those who wish for storms. Why you would think I would be doing the very thing I loathe is beyond me.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Thanks for the update, Jeff.
Well except the somewhat incendiary, somewhat insensitive question at the end (even if I'm also sick of hearing the endless blabber by Repubs of cutting govt spending which in truth equates to slashing FUNDING)... but, let's see - at 13-16 days out, yet entering the peak of hurricane season, Tampa's chance any given year at this point will always be - non-zero percent...

The upcoming stalled cold front scenario, esp how persistent the present synoptic pattern is shaping up, does bear watching - 1983's Alicia formed from just such a set-up... becoming quite a strong Cat 3 causing considerable damage to Houston, and also unusual as developed within a normally stable / relatively high sfc pressure regime.


Alicia was a small hurricane...but sure caused lots of damage. I don't believe too may people evacuated Galveston either...luckily this wasn't a Carla.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Mutant butterflies a result of Fukushima nuclear disaster, researchers say

next up, glow-in-the-dark rats, and spiders that bite and make you shoot webs from your wrist.

maybe turtles with swords, too.

Quoting robintampabay:


Hurricane Elana 1985


She did not make landfall, circled back out into the gulf. I was 6 at the time and lived in South Tampa about 500 yards for the bay. We had to evacuate. It is one of my earliest memories!
This is probably a futile request, but can we all try to keep our views of either party's merits out of this dicussion? Every time this happens, the blog deteriorates into name calling and one-upsmanship. We're in the middle of hurricane season, and this is a weather blog. There are many political blogs available to praise or trash the party or parties of your choice.
re: #70 Patrap
I'd agree McCain / RNC responded quite appropriately...
Not that I was paying much attention to 'em, too busy preparing for Gustav's onslaught myself... ;)

re: #75 stillwaiting
That's a dead-on accurate forecast!
Quoting AussieStorm:

When was the last time Tampa had to evac for a hurricane??? Long time ago I'm guessing.
Hurricane Charley in 2004, the biggest evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Link


Quoting robintampabay:


Hurricane Elana 1985

What the population of Tampa now compared to back then?
Quoting jeffs713:

next up, glow-in-the-dark rats, and spiders that bite and make you shoot webs from your wrist.

maybe turtles with swords, too.


lol
Quoting sar2401:
This is probably a futile request, but can we all try to keep our views of either party's merits out of this dicussion? Every time this happens, the blog deteriorates into name calling and one-upsmanship. We're in the middle of hurricane season, and this is a weather blog. There are many political blogs available to praise or trash the party or parties of your choice.


the rnc is on topic today...
Quoting kshipre1:
I mean to say it was interesting and little scary how Dr. Masters asked a question about a hurricane at that time frame. sometimes I wonder if he thinks something could form and move east towards western florida?


Watch the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The GFS model has been showing some development may occur in the waters close to shore near the Texas/Mexico border early next week -- Jeff Masters

hmmm.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not sure how the question Dr. Masters asked was insensitive, much less incendiary. The RNC itself asked that very question while planning and readying for the convention:

Weather a concern at GOP convention

RNC organizers prepare for Florida heat, hurricanes

The thing is, virtually any place in hurricane alley where large groups of people meet has contingency and/or emergency plans in the event of a tropical storm strike. Disney World, countless school districts, the Orange County Convention Center--all of them and many others study the climatology in consideration of what is possible weather-wise. It's neither insensitive nor incendiary to talk about it. In fact, ignoring it would seem to be the insensitive thing to do...


Well then Nea, I'll ask you this - Would Dr Jeff have even mentioned any remote possibility of a hurricane striking Tampa in this time frame, were it not the fact the Republican National Convention was being held there???

Of course not... and you know how darn well inflammed and polarized this blog gets when any hint of politics is inserted.
Quoting stillwaiting:
What are the chances of a hurricane forcing the evacuation of the RNC??,maybe a hurricane of greed and corruption,a wx hurricane ,statistically speaking:as close to zero as you can get,Tampa's never had a hurricane landfall in the entire month of august in recorded history link,Im personally forecasting cat 5 flood surge of money at the RNC, chances are near 100%


hurricane of greed lol...DC is not going to get hitt....
Experimental FIM, which performed really well with Ernesto:

Quoting AussieStorm:

What the population of Tampa now compared to back then?


2.8 Million Now Tampa Metro area
1.1 Million 1985
Quoting Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop


SST's are 30-31C in GOM
Indeed Doc, How many criticized NOLA for K, and then How many covered the Complete Evac of Gustav here?

Calamity takes the Bigger Headline.

Everytime
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Experimental FIM, which performed really well with Ernesto:



FIM will be replacing the GFS in the future.
Watch the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The GFS model has been showing some development may occur in the waters close to shore near the Texas/Mexico border early next week -- Jeff Masters

First day of fall classes start next wed at A&M CC, it would be a nightmare trying to evacuate all the brand new students
I think the chances of Tampa being evacuated during the RNC are remote at best. The only thing the RNC folks will have to worry about are daily afternoon seabreeze storms.
It would even be more interesting to see the probability of Washington getting evacuated during November from late blooming storm! Or perhaps an early winter storm perhaps?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Experimental FIM, which performed really well with Ernesto:



Is that from a disturbance projected to come from the Yucatan Bay or is that from the Caribbean?
As I said on the previous mapping, "I expect some position fixes will be re-evaluated&altered on the next ATCF report..." Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalWaveSeven from 14August6amGMT AND from 14August12pmGMT
13.3n61.4w- 13.5n63.2w- 13.8n65.6w- 14.0n68.0w- 14.2n70.4w- 14.2n72.7w- 14.1n74.9w- 14.1n76.6w- 14.1n78.0w- 14.1n81.0w from the 14Aug6amGMT ATCF report have been re-evaluated&altered to
13.5n61.4w- 13.7n63.2w- 13.9n65.6w- 14.1n68.0w- 14.3n70.4w- 14.4n72.7w- 14.5n74.9w- 14.6n76.6w- 14.7n78.4w- 14.8n80.1w- 14.9n81.8w as the most recent positions on the 14Aug12pmGMT ATCF report

PEU-PuertoLempira :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: SLU-St.Lucia :: SVD-St.Vincent

The easternmost unlabled dot is the last position that the 14Aug6amGMT ATCF(obsolete)path and the 14Aug12pmGMT ATCF(recent)path held in common on 11Aug6pm
Long bottom line is the 14Aug6amGMT ATCF(obsolete)path for TW.7 between 11Aug6pm and 14Aug6amGMT
Long top line is the 14Aug12pmGMT ATCF(recent)path for TW.7 between 11Aug6pm and 14Aug6amGMT
The short line is the most recent 6hour ATCF path between 14Aug6amGMT and 14Aug12pmGMT

Copy&paste 13.3n59.9w- 13.3n61.4w- 13.5n63.2w- 13.8n65.6w- 14.0n68.0w- 14.2n70.4w- 14.2n72.7w- 14.1n74.9w- 14.1n76.6w- 14.1n78.0w- 14.1n81.0w, peu, puz, slu, svd, 13.3n59.9w- 13.5n61.4w- 13.7n63.2w- 13.9n65.6w- 14.1n68.0w- 14.3n70.4w- 14.4n72.7w- 14.5n74.9w- 14.6n76.6w- 14.7n78.4w- 14.8n80.1w, 14.8n80.1w-14.9n81.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
106. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Indeed Doc, How many criticized NOLA for K, and then How many covered the Complete Evac of Gustav here?

Calamity takes the Bigger Headline.

Everytime


gustav was a larger evacuation, all of coastal la was evacuated, first time in la history evac consited from the texas border to the miss border...
107. VR46L
The waves dont look great coming off Africa today...
Funktop


even in rainbow unimpressive
From what I've gathered looking at the models, the development would occur from part of the moisture from Ex-TD7 and a cut off frontal low system merging with each other over the GOMEX.
LOL now we are wish casting that a hurricane will take out the RNC convention
Politics here naaaaah
Quoting robintampabay:


She did not make landfall, circled back out into the gulf. I was 6 at the time and lived in South Tampa about 500 yards for the bay. We had to evacuate. It is one of my earliest memories!


Husband and I had just moved into our new home that week end. Many of the Tampa evacuees came to Lee county and were sheltered at the Lee Civic Center. I remember that week end very well
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Is that from a disturbance projected to come from the Yucatan Bay or is that from the Caribbean?
It appears to form from the remains of TD 7. Here is the loop.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Charley in 2004, the biggest evacuation in Tampa Bay history.

Link




Curious video. I wonder why the Frankland Bridge wasn't opened on both sides to outbound traffic? I65 north through Alabama has all lanes open only for northbound traffic during a evacuation. Did y'all see the car at about 2:38 into the video driving with his hood up? I guess that's one way to cool the engine, but I see a rear end collision at some point in the near future. :)
Link

Looks like even the weather service is preparing for riots
Very strange
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Well then Nea, I'll ask you this - Would Dr Jeff have even mentioned any remote possibility of a hurricane striking Tampa in this time frame, were it not the fact the Republican National Convention was being held there???

Of course not... and you know how darn well inflammed and polarized this blog gets when any hint of politics is inserted.


Asking a leading question is a way to increase readership, viewership and participation.
Everybody wants to know the possible location of a hurricane in the GOM in 10-14 days if there is even a remote possibility of that happening, particularly due to a major national event taking place in one of the GOM coastal cities.

There is nothing incendiary about it. This is just how writers and journalists work. Charles Dickens comes to mind. His chapters were all written in serial form and distributed that way. To get readers to buy the next one, he would always end on a suspenseful note. Just watch the weather when a storm is coming and the announcer always prefaces a commercial with the suggestion that you will hear what you tuned in for after the break.

We are part of The Weather Channel network now, after all :-)
re: 99 Patrap

So true, Pat... I'm also remembering the totally irrelevent, idiotic responses in the aftermath on causation, who was it Jerry Falwell attempted attribution of the Katrina disaster on the sins of the city? Sheeeshhh...


Quoting DocNDswamp:


Well then Nea, I'll ask you this - Would Dr Jeff have even mentioned any remote possibility of a hurricane striking Tampa in this time frame, were it not the fact the Republican National Convention was being held there???

Of course not... and you know how darn well inflammed and polarized this blog gets when any hint of politics is inserted.
But the Republican National Convention is being held in Tampa at the peak of hurricane season, so it's not like Dr. Masters spoke of some randomly-chosen city during some arbitrary time frame. Again, I'm not sure how talking about the odds of a hurricane strike at that time and at that place could be construed as either insensitive or incendiary.

I believe that it's entirely possible for people to discuss the odds of a severe tropical storm striking a Gulf Coast city during hurricane season without that discussion devolving into political tit-for-tat. For my part, I'll simply ignore the inane but off-topic comments, and flag the nastier ones (such as #116).
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

We all know what Masters was angling to do. There is nothing he, you and all the other libs on here would like than to see the RNC disrupted. He constantly uses the weather to thinly vail his political agenda. So stop the innocent act. We're not buying it.


so agree but you wont win that fight here, this is left wing city
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

We all know what Masters was angling to do. There is nothing he, you and all the other libs on here would like than to see the RNC disrupted. He constantly uses the weather to thinly vail his political agenda. So stop the innocent act. We're not buying it.


Nobody is arming the GOM with wind and rain to pelt the RNC. He's not making the weather, just prognosticating about it. Sheesh.
Hopefully the RNC will be fine. The worst thing would be the revenue lost to the Tampa bay area if the convention were cancelled and had to be relocated.
Quoting divingpyrate:
Link

Looks like even the weather service is preparing for riots
Very strange


Please see my comment #36. This is not part of a giant conspiracy. .40 cal hollow point ammo is standard issue for most police agencies, and lots of ammo is expended for training.
124. ARiot
"What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?"

It's a non-issue now.

They take things like storms, weather, hotel booking rates, traffic, security and anything else negative and evaluate the risk based on the desired political outcome. In this case, I assume they want to turn Florida to their side in the electorial college results, and the convention site was chosen to improve those odds. A risk-based decision.

So the choice is made, and they'll work with what they've got. Any speculation as to back-up plans or actual storm tracks until 4-5 days prior to the event start may be interesting to read or consider, but it's just speculation.

If they didn't roll the dice a little on convention choices, the reward would also be less.
What's this i hear about a possible storm for Texas?.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: 99 Patrap

So true, Pat... I'm also remembering the totally irrelevent, idiotic responses in the aftermath on causation, who was it Jerry Falwell attempted attribution of the Katrina disaster on the sins of the city? Sheeeshhh...




I'm purty sure God will deal with Mr. Falwell when he rises up to his reward post Life.

She has very large Leather Belt I hear tell.




Quoting Patrap:
...your so "Bain", you probably think this blog is about you..


LOL Pat....
Well, have not been in here for quite a while and I see it's the same as it ever was...
You do realize this is the "weather underground".


I wonder how much Bain Corporation and the Blackstone Group could kick in for Disaster Relief after a Major Event?

Have they in the past?

I'd like a few Hours with their er, PR folks as I have a great Idea but will not expound on it here.

It could cause some panic.

Fresca anyone?
If this were to pan out, the high pressure ridge to the north of the unseasonable front will create a strong pressure gradient well before a storm exists, strong east and NE winds would be building up seas well in advance of the storm.

After reading some of these posts I am confused. We are supposed to be focused on weather not political agendas. I am interested on the possibility of activity in the GOM. What are some of the models that are the most useful to study?
132. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
You do realize this is the "weather underground".


I wonder how much Bain Corporation and the Blackstone Group could kick in for Disaster Relief after a Major Event?

Have they in the past?

I'd like a few Hours with their er, PR folks as I have a great Idea but will not expound on it here.

It could cause some panic.

Fresca anyone?



they did help after katrina...fyi
The WU may have always been this liberal, but the Blog has not always been.
Used to be a fun place to discuss and learn now it is just the new global warming network
Quoting Chicklit:


Nobody is arming the GOM with wind and rain to pelt the RNC. He's not making the weather, just prognosticating about it. Sheesh.

I didn't say he was creating the weather, but rather just making a thinly vailed political statement, as you already know, chicklit.
Quoting sar2401:


Please see my comment #36. This is not part of a giant conspiracy. .40 cal hollow point ammo is standard issue for most police agencies, and lots of ammo is expended for training.


But is it standard issue for Meteorologist?
That is the weather service not the cops.
This might not be too funny for someone.
looks like a storm stuck under a building ridge.
re: #114 Chicklit
"There is nothing incendiary about it."

Hiya Chicklit,

Well, just read the responses already posted and those forthcoming and see if this "minor prodding of the hornet's nest" doesn't provoke several readers...
Just sayin'...



Quoting RitaEvac:
If this were to pan out, the high pressure ridge to the north of the unseasonable front will create a strong pressure gradient well before a storm exists, strong east and NE winds would be building up seas well in advance of the storm.



Is this storm moving westward or northward or somewhere else?
I'm Rob Base and I, I, I, I, I wanna talk right now....

Weather
Quoting Kibkaos:
After reading some of these posts I am confused. We are supposed to be focused on weather not political agendas. I am interested on the possibility of activity in the GOM. What are some of the models that are the most useful to study?


The GFS models have been performing well this year, so I'd look to them over the next week and see what develops.
Quoting cyclonekid:


Is this storm moving westward or northward or somewhere else?


Seems to just form off the tail end of front
The very same concerns were held at the 1968 Republican Convention in Miami. Many people on the committee did not want the convention held there because it was during the Hurricane Season. Their reasons were valid. These storms were common in that period so it has and always will be a concern.

Hurricane Inez brushed the Southern tip of Florida in 1966.





Hurricane Betsy hit Miami in 1965.



Isabel and Cleo hit South Florida in 1964





Quoting divingpyrate:


so agree but you wont win that fight here, this is left wing city


Thats right.... I mean left???? So weather is a left thing? Funny how the right of freedom of speech ends once the left has had its turn..... then its, back to the rules of the road... LOL
Spin Baby Spin
Hurricane Betsy also struck Se Louisiana.

..er, for "continuity".
Quoting cyclonekid:


Is this storm moving westward or northward or somewhere else?


No one really knows, since there is no storm yet. The GFS is predicting a low pressure area to form in the BOC with the hint that it may be taken north and then east. What that possible low may turn into and the exact track and intensity is not better than chance at this point.
Quoting sar2401:


Curious video. I wonder why the Frankland Bridge wasn't opened on both sides to outbound traffic? I65 north through Alabama has all lanes open only for northbound traffic during a evacuation. Did y'all see the car at about 2:38 into the video driving with his hood up? I guess that's one way to cool the engine, but I see a rear end collision at some point in the near future. :)
They did the reverse contraflow later in the day as they wanted to keep it open for residents who needed to get home to their loved ones and get their stuff and get out of there.
Thank you sar2401. I will be checking GFS models daily.
I believe we're starting to get some spillover from GLP and LOP.

Or I could be wrong.


It has Happened before.
Quoting divingpyrate:


But is it standard issue for Meteorologist?
That is the weather service not the cops.


Please read my comment #36. Mets are not being issued ammo.
I'll be back in the morning. Hopefully by then it's 99.9% weather talk and 0.1% other stuff. Goodnight all.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
They did the reverse contraflow later in the day as they wanted to keep it open for residents who needed to get home to their loved ones and get their stuff and get out of there.


OK, that makes sense. I have no idea what timeframe the video represents compared to predicted time of landfall..but I still wouldn't drive with my hood up. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
If this were to pan out, the high pressure ridge to the north of the unseasonable front will create a strong pressure gradient well before a storm exists, strong east and NE winds would be building up seas well in advance of the storm.

Going to need to pay attention to the high tides as a New Moon is set to occur on the 17th, first quarter on the 24th, and Full Moon on the 31st.
I purty sure that a Hurricane striking Fla will have to first pass a Urine Test,..that's from the Guvna's office.


Or maybe the Onion,

Sources are not my forte'.

LoL
Quoting divingpyrate:
The WU may have always been this liberal, but the Blog has not always been.
Used to be a fun place to discuss and learn now it is just the new global warming network
11 of the last 12 blog entries have dealt primarily, if not solely, with tropical weather. If this is "the new global warming network", it's falling seriously short of its mandate, don't you think?
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'll be back in the morning. Hopefully by then it's 99.9% weather talk and 0.1% other stuff. Goodnight all.


GN, Aussie. I hope so too.
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Betsy also struck Se Louisiana.

..er, for "continuity".


But the convention was held there, so it is totally irrelevant to the post. If that had been the case I would have shown all the tracks and detailed where they struck. I did not think that was necessary. It was strictly to reflect the thinking of the members of the committee about having a convention in a city prone to frequent hurricanes, which as you know were more frequent in the 1940's through the 1960's :P:P:P
162. hamla
weather,weather
wether ur left or wether ur right wether is weather lol
Yup,

But I like the continuity post betta'

; )

I was Born in Jan,1960, but conceived in the 50's, so there's dat as well.
With the way steering patterns have been going this year I highly doubt a storm will interfere with the RNC convention.
Quoting Chicklit:
Acute Schizophrenia Paranoia Blues


Nice come back, chic. About what I would expect.
Weather or Not?

Dat is the Question.






Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Quoting Neapolitan:
11 of the last 12 blog entries have dealt primarily, if not solely, with tropical weather. If this is "the new global warming network", it's falling seriously short of its mandate, don't you think?
Guide 'em to the climate blog Nea! You can shred 'em up there. lol
not even a storm in the GOM yet and already time to pass out some Prozac. any takers? lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
11 of the last 12 blog entries have dealt primarily, if not solely, with tropical weather. If this is "the new global warming network", it's falling seriously short of its mandate, don't you think?


Yeah, but during the tropics season it used to be 30 outta 30 were tropical weather with just little snip its of big weather/climate news. I'm not saying what he's doing is wrong. Just an observation.
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen

re-post, # 70

A Hurricane doesn't have to Strike Tampa during the RNC Convention, or the DNC one as well.

It only has to be strong Cane and threaten the US Coastline to bring about changes at a Convention.

Gustav did that only 4 years ago.


Aug 30, 2008 4:08pm
McCain: Hurricane Gustav May Suspend RNC



ABC News’ Karen Travers reports: In an interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace that will air Sunday morning, Sen. John McCain indicated that the GOP convention could be suspended because of Hurricane Gustav.
"It wouldn’t be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster," McCain told Wallace.
McCain said that he has been in touch with the governors of the Gulf Coast states—where Gustav is expected to make landfall—and that his campaign would continue to monitor the now-Category 4 storm.
"I’m afraid, Chris, that we may have to look at that situation and we’ll try and monitor it. I’ve been talking to Governors Jindal [La.], Barbour [Miss.], Riley [Ala.], Crist [Fla.], I’ve been talking to all of them," McCain told Wallace. "So we’re monitoring it from day to day and I’m saying a few prayers too."
A Republican convention official tells ABC News, however, that at this point, there are no plans to cancel the convention but there are several contingency plans that are being looked at in terms of delegation travel and the program of speakers. Both Crist and Jindal are scheduled to speak at the convention this week, but no decisions have been made yet on their plans to come to Minneapolis-Saint Paul.
This official says the Republican National Convention Committee is "still moving forward with opening the convention on Monday" as planned and notes that there is official business that has to happen at the convention, like the actual nomination of John McCain and the platform ratification.
The RNCC has issued the following statement from 2008 Republican National Convention President and CEO Maria Cino:
"Like all Americans, our prayers are with those who will be affected by Hurricane Gustav. We continue to closely monitor the movement of the storm and are considering necessary contingencies. We are in communication with the Gulf state governors to make sure the convention is taking all the appropriate steps as the hurricane progresses. The safety of our affected delegations is our first priority and preparing for Gustav comes before anything else."
Quoting ncstorm:
We can only hope..

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Really??? Wow, lets hope for destruction and harm just so the convention could be cancelled. I hope there are no storms, not even one to hit North Carolina in September!
173. hamla
Quoting Patrap:
Yup,

But I like the continuity post betta'

; )

I was Born in Jan,1960, but conceived in the 50's, so there's dat as well.
pat u was a thought personhood early in life lol
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen



Especially 7 days out
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen

Well it did do good with Ernesto...
What did the hurricane say to the other hurricane?
I got my eye on you.

Where did the meteorologist stop for a drink on the way home from a long day in the studio?
The nearest ISOBAR!!

Everybody knows about the Fujita Scale which measures the power of tornados. But nobody really knows what all those types of twisters do to COWS. So here is the MOOJITA Scale...
MOOJITA SCALE

M0 Tornado- Cows in an open field are spun around parallel to the wind flow and become mildly annoyed
M1 Tornado- Cows are tipped over and can't get up
M2 Tornado- Cows begin rolling with the wind
M3 Tornado- Cows tumble and bounce
M4 Tornado- Cows are AIRBORN
M5 Tornado- S T E A K ! ! !

GOODNIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
With the way steering patterns have been going this year I highly doubt a storm will interfere with the RNC convention.
However,it may be someone's wishful thinking.
And only 10 days away from solid month of no measurable rainfall at my place....mind as well be friggin 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it's already showing this, it usually means it "aint" gonna happen


Wow, that's a nice way to start the blog of for me today. :P
I am so sick of this political junk....people have always had political differences.It's what makes this county great....What I don't understand is this new level of anger and hate....if you ask me, I think it's wise that the Gov't arms itself. In fact, they probably haven't bought enough ammo !
FWIW, I think the only time I've ever indulged into the political stuff on WU is during the Curiosity landing, and that was at 1AM. The point is that politics and such can wait, Dr. Masters blog has no "agenda" to it - because hurricanes don't have a "agenda" to it. 93L appears to be poised to become Gordon in a few days judging by the GFS, and we could be facing Helene or such in the Gulf or off Africa next week. The point is we are in for an active period I am willing to bet - even though the European model is failing to pick up anything. Another thing interesting is the current state of the El Nino. Check this out, cool anomalies are developing off the coast of South America with the warmer anomalies being focused in the Central Pacific.




I wouldn't say Modoki yet as this is just a few weeks or so but it certainly is starting to resemble one. Nino 1+2 have absolutely crashed as of late.
182. yoboi
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
I am so sick of this political junk....people have always had political differences.It's what makes this county great....What I don't understand is this new level of anger and hate....if you ask me, I think it's wise that the Gov't arms itself. In fact, they probably haven't bought enough ammo !


the more ammo they buy the higher it is for me to buy and that makes my duck gumbo go up in price....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, I think the only time I've ever indulged into the political stuff on WU is during the Curiosity landing, and that was at 1AM. The point is that politics and such can wait, Dr. Masters blog has no "agenda" to it - because hurricanes don't have a "agenda" to it. 93L appears to be poised to become Gordon in a few days judging by the GFS, and we could be facing Helene or such in the Gulf or off Africa next week. The point is we are in for an active period I am willing to bet - even though the European model is failing to pick up anything. Another thing interesting is the current state of the El Nino. Check this out, cool anomalies are developing off the coast of South America with the warmer anomalies being focused in the Central Pacific.




I wouldn't say Modoki yet as this is just a few weeks or so but it certainly is starting to resemble one. Nino 1+2 have absolutely crashed as of late.
I don't care!.Just as long as I get an interesting hurricane season and a cold snowy winter.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Wow, that's a nice way to start the blog of for me today. :P


It's nice to see fake rains for TX huh? man could you imagine....SE TX getting slapped with the dirty side, feeder bands and squalls constantly blowing in... whole state getting pounced by heavy rains....lets take another look at this fantasy of ours....


Quoting RitaEvac:


It's nice to see fake rains for TX huh? man could you imagine....SE TX getting slapped with the dirty side, feeder bands and squalls constantly blowing in... whole state getting pounced by heavy rains....lets take another look at this fantasy of ours....


Or it do a Don?.Literally vanish in mid air.But the drought over Texas isn't as strong as it was last year and predominant.
Our 2 friends in the Atlantic might try and play a game of Fujiwhara:

181. CybrTeddy 4:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2012 +2

Not sure which model it was that was posted some time ago, I think the CFS but, it showed a Modoki developing ASO period. Interesting.
As a Conservative Christian, I didn't even find Dr. Masters off topic. The convention is around the time the peak of the Hurricane Season and it's a 50/50 chance Tampa could be affected with a Tropical Cyclone. I mean, the convention is only 2 weeks away and a storm IS forecast to develop in the GOM next week...

Fresca anyone?
Quoting yoboi:


the more ammo they buy the higher it is for me to buy and that makes my duck gumbo go up in price....


mmmmmm...with andouille sausage ???
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's nice to see fake rains for TX huh? man could you imagine....SE TX getting slapped with the dirty side, feeder bands and squalls constantly blowing in... whole state getting pounced by heavy rains....lets take another look at this fantasy of ours....



Tropical cyclone or not, HGX does sound like they are hopeful that some rains will return by the end of the week.

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE MORE WET
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE
OVER THE 4 CORNERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT STRETCHES TO THE GULF. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON
WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST. PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION BUT AT THIS POINT
EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
interesting to you said north and then east. things could get interesting.
Quoting sar2401:


No one really knows, since there is no storm yet. The GFS is predicting a low pressure area to form in the BOC with the hint that it may be taken north and then east. What that possible low may turn into and the exact track and intensity is not better than chance at this point.
192. hamla
what has ruined politics in the 20,21st century is yhe allmighty DOLLAR way back in the eraly 50s there was less than a few hundred millionares,dont remember the word biullionare,now thats the standard for thes country.in 1961 un amite la.i coukd buy 10 loafs of bunny bread for a buck.min wage was a dollar fifteen a hous gas was 18 cents a gallon etc.so we really need to think about all the people who make min wage in 2012.it has gone up a wopping 6.35 a hour in 51 years
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Our 2 friends in the Atlantic might try and play a game of Fujiwhara:

C'mon now...I highly doubt that materializes.You see what happened to 93L?.It only started now developing when it was out in the middle of the atlantic near Bermuda.Not northern Africa like the GFS shows.That low south of the cape verde islands has a better chance.
194. yoboi
Quoting hurricanehanna:


mmmmmm...with andouille sausage ???


yep can't wait for the first cool snap here in la beer, boudain and big pot of gumbo.....oh an more beer...
Quoting yoboi:


yep can't wait for the first cool snap here in la beer, boudain and big pot of gumbo.....oh an more beer...


oh yeah...and don't forget the beer! My daughter was asking for gumbo the other night...I told her when the first cool front comes through. Too dang hot right now :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon now...I highly doubt that materializes.You see what happened to 93L?.It only started now developing when it was out in the middle of the atlantic near Bermuda.Not northern Africa like the GFS shows.That low south of the cape verde islands has a better chance.
I know it is just fun to look at when it is this far out. Shows the possibility and I won't mind seeing a Fujiwhara out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Quoting yoboi:


yep can't wait for the first cool snap here in la beer, boudain and big pot of gumbo.....oh an more beer...


I love that combination, have to be careful with the gumbo though, can't eat shellfish. :(

It seems a little early in the season for a Low that forms in the BOC....to go N than E. I would expect that in late September or early Oct. Brings to mind Opal in 95.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know it is just fun to look at when it is this far out. Shows the possibility and I won't mind seeing a Fujiwhara out in the middle of the Atlantic.
That would be cool XD.I just don't want Isaac to be a bust this year :(.
Quoting reedzone:
As a Conservative Christian, I didn't even find Dr. Masters off topic. The convention is around the time the peak of the Hurricane Season and it's a 50/50 chance Tampa could be affected with a Tropical Cyclone. I mean, the convention is only 2 weeks away and a storm IS forecast to develop in the GOM next week...
I'm sure the Doctor will be thrilled that you approve and relieved that he didn't do anything low, as you judgementally wrote yesterday. I have no idea what your religion has to do with the question though.
.'
Odds-wise...the odds of a mass evacuation. Well, considering we need a storm, a big one, heading for Tampa with enough time to evacuate. And it has to happen in a 2-3 day time-frame. How often have we seen mass evacuations of Tampa? I'd put the odds at 500/1-1000/1 range of such an event.
So what I am gathering is that this year's Gordon could be following a similar path to 2006's? That would be interesting. Especially if it were to be around the same intensity.


Link


...percent chance of Florida being affected
...straight from da mouse house mouth
: )
Afternoon... carribbean keeping it together a bit more than expected.....watching for the front stallout and possible merge. My political view...GO SAINTS!
192 hrs. system in the western Gulf makes landfall in Brownsville and the next system off of Africa gobbles up 93L:



203. Sailor...matches the peak chart pretty well...
Please don't be a bust this year Isaac.
300 hrs into the fantasy land of the GFS assuming we get Gordon, Helen, and Isaac from the 2 systems in the open Atlantic and the other one in the western Gulf, here comes Joyce to round out the month with 6 named storms:



Quoting midgulfmom:
203. Sailor...matches the peak chart pretty well...


OH NOOOOOOO! You mentioned "Da Chart" ! Next will be shower curtains everywhere lol
Quoting StormPro:


OH NOOOOOOO! You mentioned "Da Chart" ! Next will be shower curtains everywhere lol


HAHAHA....U KNOW IT!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
300 hrs into the fantasy land of the GFS assuming we get Gordon, Helen, and Isaac from the 2 systems in the open Atlantic and the other one in the western Gulf, here comes Joyce to round out the month with 6 named storms:





I have noticed that GFS has emerged for many runs this month the waves way up in latitude and that is why we see all go fishing.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm sure the Doctor will be thrilled that you approve and relieved that he didn't do anything low, as you judgementally wrote yesterday. I have no idea what your religion has to do with the question though.
.'
Odds-wise...the odds of a mass evacuation. Well, considering we need a storm, a big one, heading for Tampa with enough time to evacuate. And it has to happen in a 2-3 day time-frame. How often have we seen mass evacuations of Tampa? I'd put the odds at 500/1-1000/1 range of such an event.

So if it is 1 in 500 conventions that would be 1 in 2000 years.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, I think the only time I've ever indulged into the political stuff on WU is during the Curiosity landing, and that was at 1AM. The point is that politics and such can wait, Dr. Masters blog has no "agenda" to it - because hurricanes don't have a "agenda" to it. 93L appears to be poised to become Gordon in a few days judging by the GFS, and we could be facing Helene or such in the Gulf or off Africa next week. The point is we are in for an active period I am willing to bet - even though the European model is failing to pick up anything. Another thing interesting is the current state of the El Nino. Check this out, cool anomalies are developing off the coast of South America with the warmer anomalies being focused in the Central Pacific.




I wouldn't say Modoki yet as this is just a few weeks or so but it certainly is starting to resemble one. Nino 1+2 have absolutely crashed as of late.



How certain is Modiki Nino, because we have 2004 year but which others years were modiki apart of 2004?
Quoting nofailsafe:


I love that combination, have to be careful with the gumbo though, can't eat shellfish. :(


Go for chicken gumbo.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: #114 Chicklit
"There is nothing incendiary about it."

Hiya Chicklit,

Well, just read the responses already posted and those forthcoming and see if this "minor prodding of the hornet's nest" doesn't provoke several readers...
Just sayin'...




Hi Doc, I don't think like maybe a lot of others. Or maybe I do, who knows.
What I do know is this is what Doc Masters wrote:

What are the chances that a hurricane will force a mass evacuation of Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30?

Interesting, dramatic statement, sure.
If there is going to be a storm near Tampa during the RNC then there had better be good evacuation plans in place to accomodate the extra people there. Anybody have any idea how many more people will be in Tampa at that time?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
sign of el nino creeping up due to stronger troughs and weakening high pressure? who knows....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I have noticed that GFS has emerged for many runs this month the waves way up in latitude and that is why we see all go fishing.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also to add 93L looking better than before and I geuss 93L will steal the name Gordon from EX-TD7
give it up kid,...it's over.
1.6% - 3.2% chance of a hurricane forcing an evacuation in Tampa during that time.
Looks like another entity in SW Caribbean might be merging with ex TD7



Quoting Patrap:


I'm purty sure God will deal with Mr. Falwell when he rises up to his reward post Life.

She has very large Leather Belt I hear tell.




True Pat true. But Mr. Falwell will ENJOY that. LOL
Quoting reedzone:
As a Conservative Christian, I didn't even find Dr. Masters off topic. The convention is around the time the peak of the Hurricane Season and it's a 50/50 chance Tampa could be affected with a Tropical Cyclone. I mean, the convention is only 2 weeks away and a storm IS forecast to develop in the GOM next week...

Fresca anyone?
Thank you Reedzone - I couldn't agree more. I did not find any hidden agenda in Dr. Masters quote; in fact, it seemed timely.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


humans are pregnant for 9 months. what will happen with the babies of that area?


My reaction is a bit late, sorry for that.
What happens to humans can be seen here.

Careful, it might hurt.
http://www.pixelpress.org/chernobyl/index.html
and
http://www.gerdludwig.com/stories/chernobyl-the-v ictims/#num=content-46&id=album-12

Quoting reedzone:


Bappit it's best not to quote a troll.. This dude attacks me for everything I say and predict. He is a troll.
lol....What a joke. I don't attack everything you say. You're being a little self-centered there. I'll comment when anyone insults the Doc or the NHC. I can't help it if you do it more than most. I didn't say anything yesterday about your comment(which has since been removed), because others already had written well what I was thinking. I did plus Nea's comment regarding your comment, along with at last look 28 other members.