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92L still a threat to develop; record SSTs continue in the tropical Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2010

A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Lesser Antilles Islands lost most of its heavy thunderstorms last night, due to an infusion of dry air. However, 92L has redeveloped a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, and remains a threat to the Caribbean--though not as great a threat as it appeared yesterday. Satellite loops show that 92L's heavy thunderstorms are slowly growing in areal coverage, and are becoming more organized. St. Lucia reported sustained winds of 33 mph this morning in a heavy rain squall, and heavy rain showers and gusty winds can be expected throughout the southern Lesser Antilles Islands today. Martinique radar shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Surface observations indicate that pressures continue to fall at a number of stations in the Lesser Antilles, but no surface circulation is evident in the wind reports. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear on the south side of 92L. The waters are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air could interfere with development over the next few days.

Forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving westward at 5 mph, but steering currents favor a more west-northwest motion Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. Model support for development is less than it was yesterday. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The HWRF, GFDL, and UKMET models predict development, with a track taking 92L into the Dominican Republic on Sunday as Tropical Storm Julia. These models predict the storm will continue west-northwest, affecting Haiti, Eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Southeast Bahamas early next week. The ECMWF model foresees a more southerly track, taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula seven days from now.

Residents of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico should anticipate the possibility of heavy rains from 92L affecting their islands on Saturday and Sunday, though most of the action will probably stay south and west. The southern Dominican Republic should see heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches on Sunday and Monday from 92L, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba should anticipate similar rains on Monday and Tuesday. Should 92L make a direct hit on the Dominican Republic, it could destroy the storm, though. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, which is a reasonable forecast. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Saturday morning, but there will be two research missions into the storm today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Igor
Tropical Depression Igor has survived a bout with high wind shear, and is now in an environment of moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear that should allow for steady strengthening. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is probably not close enough to Igor to prevent development. The models continue to predict development of Igor into a hurricane 2 - 4 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands about 6 - 8 days from now. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 3 - 6 days from now.

August SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest August on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.23°C above average during August, beating the previous record of 1.01°C set in August 2005. August 2010 was the 7th straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic. The five warmest months in history for the tropical Atlantic have all occurred this year; June 2005 comes in sixth place, and August 2010 in seventh. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are in large part to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role.

The Bermuda-Azores High was weaker than average during August, which drove slower than usual trade winds over the tropical Atlantic. These lower trade wind speeds stirred up less cold waters from the depths than usual, and caused less evaporational cooling than usual, allowing August SSTs to remain at record warm levels. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to be at near-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to stay at record warm levels during September, significantly increasing the odds of major hurricanes in the Atlantic.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for September 9, 2010. Note the area of cool anomalies off the U.S. East Coast, due to the passage of Hurricane Earl. Cool anomalies are also evident east of Bermuda, due to the passage of Hurricane Danielle. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormW:
Latest RGB loop shows Igor looking to build an eyewall:

LINK


I noticed on the water vapor this morning Igor appeared to have an eye...or a "dry spot" in the center of the circulation...
but on your link now, sure enough..an eye is forming..I am afraid Igor is going to be a powerful storm...
Well living in S. fl. it's always nice to have a few extra cold ones on supply they never go to waste besides it's also football season they come in handy.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
my question is, what are the chances that 93L will hit Florida? Should I start hording beer now?
Based on the latest dynamical envelope, you shouldn't worry about it as it appears to be more like a Jamaica-Yucatan threat. Nonetheless, just monitor the situation.

Quoting aquak9:


pens bandaids neosporin can-opener gasoline

q-tips deodorant soap toilet-paper

coffee-filters fresh water

deck of cards


Hi Aqua, well it appears you about summed it up with the priorities! LOL

good morning to you.
MiamiHurricanes09 what is your take on 92L, 93L, and Igor..do you see one of these systems threatening the United States because I just checked the latest computer models for Igor and some of the models show Igor bending west at the end of their run. Plus a pattern shift is suppose to take place late next week so what affect will that have on Igor and 93L?
3007. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I know...wish I was back.

Senior why is it guys like us spend half our career thinking about retiring and when we do always wish we were back in. I think about it all the time.
3008. Patrap
One can always find the recon info on the NHC home page in the Left Column.



HH

Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 10 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN SUSPECT AREA NEAR 13.5 N AND 63.5 W FOR 12/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING AT 11/1700Z INTO THE SAME AREA.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

In the ATCF files you can see the NHC has been tracking 93L since 7W.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the latest dynamical envelope, you shouldn't worry about it as it appears to be more like a Jamaica-Yucatan threat. Nonetheless, just monitor the situation.


that was 93L I asked about...(sarcasm flag was on)
can anyone provide me with the link toi the US Navy Site - my old "shortcut" does not seem to work anymore - thanks
2958. StormW 9:22 AM EDT on September 11, 2010

Quoting Grothar:


Storm, you may have answered this question a hundred times, but just something I heard. Is it possible for a very strong storm to alter the high pressure above itself? I think this question is pertinant in this current pattern.

If a Hurricane is strong enough, and is oriented in such a way, with a ridge to it's north (i.e. riding the southern periphery, and the ridge is strong enough), it can in effect "pump the ridge" in a manner of speaking. This is what we speak of when we say a strong hurricane can modify it's environment directly around it.

IF a strong hurricane can be situated such, as to send the outflow N and NW of itself, it "can" reinforce the ridge to it's north somewhat, as the latent heat from the outflow will have the tendency to strengthen that portion of the ridge. When this happens, you can keep a WNW to NW motion longer...this also can aid a very strong hurricane to "bust" a trof, if the trof is not as deep.

Wow Storm…When the topic came up last night, I emailed the question to Max Mayfield. Below is his response:

A large and strong hurricane can on occasion contribute to building a ridge to the north. Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 was such an example. Some of the models continued to indicate it would turn more toward the north in the Gulf of Mexico and it continued moving west-northwestward instead. Hopefully, the numerical models have improved enough to handle this much better. Examples like Isabel in 2003 and Bill in 2009 turning northward were handled well by the models.
3018. Patrap
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Pat you have the Largest Link I've ever seen...hmmmm


U betcha,..LOL
3019. SirCane
WOW. 92L sure has blown up over night. Looks like we will have a TD very soon.
3003:

Oh yes, let me tell you, it makes PERFECT sense to intoxicate yourself while watching a game of skill.

Life is so good you gotta just make it all go away with one drug or another.

And alcohol dehydrates you. Not exactly what you want to stock up on anyway when you expect to be out of power in 90+ degrees temps.
Quoting troy1993:
MiamiHurricanes09 what is your take on 92L, 93L, and Igor..do you see one of these systems threatening the United States because I just checked the latest computer models for Igor and some of the models show Igor bending west at the end of their run. Plus a pattern shift is suppose to take place late next week so what affect will that have on Igor and 93L?
I'll have a blog entry later today, around 12pm. All your questions will be answered there, however, out of all those areas you mentioned, 92L poses the largest threat to affect the U.S.
3023. hulakai
using the latest coordinates we have 4 September TDs in 92Ls area with 3 fizzles. The other (Charlie 1952) hit DR and Turks as a TS then went out to sea.
LGEM takes 92L up to 123kts.
IR wise 92l looks much more intense than Igor. Must be the shear, and water temp. if 92L spins up a little more look out.
What you need for that Hurricane?? I like this webpage with Tips and more.....

http://go-jamaica.com/weather/hurricane-tips.php
Quoting 954FtLCane:

that was 93L I asked about...(sarcasm flag was on)
Oh, lol, wayyyyy to far out to know then.
3029. IKE
3030. pcola57
Good Morning..just got on here..can't seem to find a forward speed on 92L...??
Quoting RecordSeason:
3003:

Oh yes, let me tell you, it makes PERFECT sense to intoxicate yourself while watching a game of skill.

Life is so good you gotta just make it all go away with one drug or another.

And alcohol dehydrates you. Not exactly what you want to stock up on anyway when you expect to be out of power in 90 degrees temps.


He is absolutely right! The beer will just get warm anyway!

Go with the Whiskey!
Quoting StormW:


If a Hurricane is strong enough, and is oriented in such a way, with a ridge to it's north (i.e. riding the southern periphery, and the ridge is strong enough), it can in effect "pump the ridge" in a manner of speaking. This is what we speak of when we say a strong hurricane can modify it's environment directly around it.

IF a strong hurricane can be situated such, as to send the outflow N and NW of itself, it "can" reinforce the ridge to it's north somewhat, as the latent heat from the outflow will have the tendency to strengthen that portion of the ridge. When this happens, you can keep a WNW to NW motion longer...this also can aid a very strong hurricane to "bust" a trof, if the trof is not as deep.


storm can we now make any sort of determination with respect to the US of a potential east coast land fall? who do you think would be at the highest risk and do you think this could pull an Isabel track?
Quoting extreme236:
LGEM takes 92L up to 123kts.
That alone is a sturdy category 4 hurricane, now plot the coordinates and check out where it lands on the TCHP map.

Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning..just got on here..can't seem to find a forward speed on 92L...??


Tropical weather discussion NHC site:

Excerpt:

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N63W...ABOUT
120 NM TO THE WEST OF SAINT LUCIA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
3036. Relix
Questions and comments:

93L: Will it truly recurve like that? I find unlikely

92L: Is moving due west with convection exploding north. Seems like a WNW movement for now though.

IGOR: Is starting to worry me here in PR. Looks like Earl or Luis from 1995.
WOW..
3038. Patrap
3039. pcola57
Quoting KanKunKid:


Tropical weather discussion NHC site:

Excerpt:

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N63W...ABOUT
120 NM TO THE WEST OF SAINT LUCIA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.


Thanks KKid...foggy headed this am...missed it..wanted to plot a dead reconing senario...after the next cup "O" Joe...or three..thanks again
with the sub tropical ridge expected to rebuild and strenghen and position little more west, i expect the lower latitude 93L to track west for a long time. this could yet be another lessr antilles/caribbean threat.
3041. Patrap
IGOR BIG FISH STORM INVEST 93L BIG FISH STORM WE NEED TO WATCH INVEST 92L THAT WILL HIT LAND
in spite of dry air and shear, Igor appears to have somehow managed to become more symetrical overall, and probably has intensified by a good 5 to 10 mph or more this morning...
3045. usa777
Here's the best preperation for you to do when a mojor Hurricane approaches. Go to an ATM...get as much $$$ as possible, get your pets and valuables and go inland at least 100 miles.
3046. Patrap
92L

RGB




WV




Rainbow

Quoting Relix:
Questions and comments:

93L: Will it truly recurve like that? I find unlikely

92L: Is moving due west with convection exploding north. Seems like a WNW movement for now though.

IGOR: Is starting to worry me here in PR. Looks like Earl or Luis from 1995.


didn't we have an invest in about the same spot as 93L a few weeks ago, with the same model tracks.. and it did tracka little north then just fade away, got sheared quickly..
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks KKid...foggy headed this am...missed it..wanted to plot a dead reconing senario...after the next cup "O" Joe...or three..thanks again


I'm with you brah! I don't convert from "Zombie" until at least 2 cups. Unless it's Cuban coffee, then just one will work for about 6 hours!


Is that trough coming from the US going to move further south? It looks like Igor can easily bypass it, and keep on going west????
3050. Patrap
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

Poor Igor, with weaker convection.
Quoting usa777:
Here's the best preperation for you to do when a mojor Hurricane approaches. Go to an ATM...get as much $$$ as possible, get your pets and valuables and go inland at least 100 miles.


That "100 miles" inland thing doesn't always work. Ask a Puerto Rican.
I was going to go with beer and Nascar that could actually be worse,now that involves some real motor skills but same outcome men trying to kill each other in a civilized why.Dam I am going to be late for Sunday school oh that's right must have been to many beers it's only Saturday. Still say 92L looking more like Cleo 1963. So in closing I will say hang on Sloppy which topped the local charts two weeks in a row because of lack of power and phones.
3055. ackee
why 92L moveing so slow will it speed up it devlops or contiune move slow
3056. Relix
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Poor Igor, with weaker convection.


And that's not good at all for us in the islands. If it weakens less trough effects on it =/
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

I'm not sure but I think he's moving just south of due west.
Steering by latest GFS sugest west to east flow. This could cause Julia to slow or turn north in the GOM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_120.shtml
Quoting KanKunKid:


That "100 miles" inland thing doesn't always work. Ask a Puerto Rican.


At 100 miles with a hit from a major hurricane, expect to lose electric, etc., for at least a week. Much better to make the minimum closer to 200 miles if you want common comforts available.
3061. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:


Is that trough coming from the US going to move further south? It looks like Igor can easily bypass it, and keep on going west????
I have noticed that not all the models re-curve Igor.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Poor Igor, with weaker convection.
Dry air has been intruding into the core of the system, thus the lack of deep organized convection around the northern semicircle of the system. It doesn't look like a well-organized 70mph TS to me right now.



Quoting Relix:


And that's not good at all for us in the islands. If it weakens less trough effects on it =/

Earl-like track is becoming more likely IMO.
3065. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Poor Igor, with weaker convection.
lol...sniffle,...cry..snurf..whine...
Quoting StormW:
If a Hurricane is strong enough, and is oriented in such a way, with a ridge to it's north (i.e. riding the southern periphery, and the ridge is strong enough), it can in effect "pump the ridge" in a manner of speaking. This is what we speak of when we say a strong hurricane can modify it's environment directly around it.

IF a strong hurricane can be situated such, as to send the outflow N and NW of itself, it "can" reinforce the ridge to it's north somewhat, as the latent heat from the outflow will have the tendency to strengthen that portion of the ridge. When this happens, you can keep a WNW to NW motion longer...this also can aid a very strong hurricane to "bust" a trof, if the trof is not as deep.


From Max Mayfield:

A large and strong hurricane can on occasion contribute to building a ridge to the north. Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 was such an example. Some of the models continued to indicate it would turn more toward the north in the Gulf of Mexico and it continued moving west-northwestward instead. Hopefully, the numerical models have improved enough to handle this much better. Examples like Isabel in 2003 and Bill in 2009 turning northward were handled well by the models.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dry air has been intruding into the core of the system, thus the lack of deep organized convection around the northern semicircle of the system. It doesn't look like a well-organized 70mph TS to me right now.




Do you think he'll be a fish storm? Because an Earl-like track is what I'm thinking.
PATRAP give that link for the forcast google track please
We will NEVER forget...

Quoting hydrus:
lol...sniffle,...cry..snurf..whine...

lol
Quoting KanKunKid:


That "100 miles" inland thing doesn't always work. Ask a Puerto Rican.
Yes, a hundred miles inland you end up in the atlantic or in the Mona canal,ha,ha,ha.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From Max Mayfield:

A large and strong hurricane can on occasion contribute to building a ridge to the north. Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 was such an example. Some of the models continued to indicate it would turn more toward the north in the Gulf of Mexico and it continued moving west-northwestward instead. Hopefully, the numerical models have improved enough to handle this much better. Examples like Isabel in 2003 and Bill in 2009 turning northward were handled well by the models.


If that's the case then what happens to IGOR? Does he go west too?
Quoting KanKunKid:


That "100 miles" inland thing doesn't always work. Ask a Puerto Rican.

lol, That's so true!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you think he'll be a fish storm? Because an Earl-like track is what I'm thinking.
We'll have to see what it does once it reaches 54W. I'm thinking he'll begin WNW/NW motion due to a weakness in the ridge induced by a broad longwave trough. We'll see what it does over the next few days, we have plenty of time to monitor it.

That invest in the Caribbean is crazy organized, has the look of a Hurricane in the making.
Quoting Jeff9641:


If that's the case then what happens to IGOR? Does he go west too?


According to StormW and Max, if Igor becomes a very strong hurricane...it is possible. Not likely...just possible.
What am i missing with IGOR?!? In his last blogs Dr Masters seems to be focused on 92L barely mentions IGOR. When I look at the data I see a strengthening storm over warm water with only moderate sheer. As well the models are shifting more and more south. This seems to be a "REAL" concern for the southeast. Being in the JAX/fla area I'm not taking this lightly.
Igor is having a hard enough time trying to pump up himself forget the ridge.
Quoting MrstormX:
That invest in the Caribbean is crazy organized, has the look of a Hurricane in the making.


Nasty Hurricane. could be cat 4 or 5 in the making. No shear and record heat content.
We are about to make it past the "I-storm" oficially beating last year.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


According to StormW and Max, if Igor becomes a very strong hurricane...it is possible. Not likely...just possible.


Thanks Geoffrey.
Still not seeing the amazingly organized 92L so many people are seeing. Still no signs of organized low level banding present. Outflow is developing as wind shear dies to around 5-10 knots. Anyone know what the SHIPS analyzed wind shear speeds are right now?
3077:

It's just the fact Igor is so far away right now they don't want to give people a heart attack just yet.

They are hoping he gets picked up by the first trough, but I seriously doubt that happens.


Both of these storms have cat5 landfall potential, so both of them bear watching by anyone in the tropics...
Morning everyone! Memoriable Day it is! I see we have Invest 93L of no surprise. Invest 92L is getting much better organized it appears.
3085. hydrus
Quoting gordydunnot:
Igor is having a hard enough time trying to pump up himself forget the ridge.
Definitely some drier air out there affecting the storm.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Still not seeing the amazingly organized 92L so many people are seeing. Still no signs of organized low level banding present. Outflow is developing as wind shear dies to around 5-10 knots. Anyone know what the SHIPS analyzed wind shear speeds are right now?

That what Im saying meanwhile IGOR has great out flow and Is starting to get a well defined eye
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Still not seeing the amazingly organized 92L so many people are seeing. Still no signs of organized low level banding present. Outflow is developing as wind shear dies to around 5-10 knots. Anyone know what the SHIPS analyzed wind shear speeds are right now?
12kt as of 12z. It's expected to drop to 2kt in 48 hours. Considering the very favorable upper level environment, low dry air, and very deep TCHP, 92L will be in a region very conducive for rapid intensification.

SHEAR (KT) 12 14 9 7 8 9 2 8 1 6 2 1 5
3088. ackee
92L SURE looks like its move a bit NW to me than West any thoughts
3089. leu2500
3077: Dr. Masters didn't post a lot on Earl in the early days, either. But when it got closer he picked up coverage. I expect the same with Igor.
looking at water vapour loops and DVORAK loops it appears that the first trough will miss IGOR. the trough has weakened and the only effect it had was to move IGOR wnw for ashort period this morning. one has to look at the non effet it had on the storm system to the north of IGOR. the models are hoping the second trough over the CONUS will turn IGOR to the northwest and out to sea. also looking at the WV pics, the second trough looks to be flattening out and will not have that effect. what i am now seeing is that IGOR will continue west and maybe a threat to PR and the bahamas


48 hr
Igor is probably going to follow Earl's path, 92L on the other hand is a compact system with pretty deep convection, once it is classified it's track is going to trek it right through the Caribbean, likely quite different then Earl.
Doc going to have a good blog today that's my forecast stay tuned.
This is going to develop quick it appears. Already at 30%, suspect 50% by 2 pm.

Misses Trough


Misses Trough


See's an opening.



I hope we get the later of the 3 models.
For the record, 92L does indeed have a well defined surface circulation per Aircraft recon and I have no reason to doubt it hasn't become even tighter today.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Doc going to have a good blog today that's my forecast stay tuned.


Yeah he's kinna late putting it up. Probably because it's taking a long time to write due to so much activity.
Good Morning! I'm sorry I passed out on some of you last night. Went fishing yesterday. Wore me out.

Fresh air. The scent of pine. SmileyCentral.com
Lol.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12kt as of 12z. It's expected to drop to 2kt in 48 hours. Considering the very favorable upper level environment, low dry air, and very deep TCHP, 92L will be in a region very conducive for rapid intensification.

SHEAR (KT) 12 14 9 7 8 9 2 8 1 6 2 1 5


Miami, those are pretty meager. This could be reminiscent of an '05 system.
92L has better upper divergence than Igor.


Poor convergence though.
Very impressive graphics Tampa. I hope we get the last model as well. :/
Yeah Saltwater I think he is working hard on 92L it's very close to land, and as such he is usually careful with his forecast.
3105. breald
If Igor misses the trough that will cause him to go west and not north west? Or does he eventually go north west but at a later time?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Good Morning! I'm sorry I passed out on some of you last night. Went fishing yesterday. Wore me out.

Fresh air. The scent of pine. SmileyCentral.com
Lol.


Morning. If you smelled the sweet scent of pine, you must be near Louisiana.
Another day in the season of 2010,
Which systems will lose and which ones will win,
Some are concerned with 92L's convection,
Others still waiting for Gastons resurection,
Will 92L go to Mexico, Fla, or out to sea,
But on its way out good luck to Haiti,
Where Igor is traveling conditions are hell,
and right behind him comes 93L,
Tropics heating up with 3 systems to track,
Maybe for the blog it'll bring sanity back.




Quoting TampaSpin:
Misses Trough


Misses Trough


See's an opening.



I hope we get the later of the 3 models.


Isn't the last model, the ECMWF, the "better", more reliable of the three? I thought it was?
Tell me that's not a Tropical Depression.

WOW MH09, just saw those SHIPS wind shear numbers, very scary system we are dealing with here with Invest 92L. Just needs to get organized convection, as in low level spiral banding and CDO development.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is going to develop quick it appears. Already at 30%, suspect 50% by 2 pm.



Very well organized, look at that equatorward outflow channel present.
Nice update StormW.
Quoting MrstormX:
Tell me that's not a Tropical Depression.


I agree that is the most defined "invest I have ever seen" It defintately needs to be upgraded in status. Also 3110 Absolutely brilliant!!!!
PR radar shows 92L steadily working the dry air out and the Ike/Alex style solid rain shield is filling in with storms all the way out.

It's also starting to get some rotation going as the storms have that "whip" motion to them now.


TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...IGOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 39.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
Quoting MrstormX:
Tell me that's not a Tropical Depression.



All I can say is that's a good looking Invest.
my only post for a couple hrs have denist appointment back soon
Igor, Julia, and Karl by tomorrow?
Quoting Neapolitan:
For the visually-minded among us, here is a graph of the season's named (and soon-to-be-named) storms up to now:



haha love it!
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Morning. If you smelled the sweet scent of pine, you must be near Louisiana.


Lol. Not far. Was at Lake Sam Rayburn all day. It was fun. I caught lucky fish because I released all 3 of mine. Lol.
3123. MZT
92L still looks a bit sloppy to be a depression, IMO. It's more of a mass of thunderstorms with "some" circulation right now.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Is that an eye?
Invest 92L looks better, but still does not show any organized convection over a COC. This does not have apparent low level spiral banding present and there is no sign of a convergent cloud pattern present, also the convective banding surrounding the system is not wrapping into the center, but outflow is present and developing quickly, indictative of very low wind shear environment and high SSTs.
...IGOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 39.5W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
Quoting StormW:


Thank you.


Great update Storm. I'm thinking Sunday should be much more telling then ? 1st trough-wise?
No eye with Igor, his heaviest convection eroded do to dry air entrainment earlier this morning leading to warming and collapsing of cold cloud tops. An eye is not present, it is just an exposed center of circulation due to the dry air present.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For the visually-minded among us, here is a graph of the season's named (and soon-to-be-named) storms up to now:




Good stuff!! LOL
000
WTNT41 KNHC 111449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BANDING EYE PRESENTATION WITH IGOR. WHILE THE
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...IT IS PREMATURE TO LOWER THE INTENSITY AND 60 KT WILL BE
KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT...IT HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AROUND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 28C. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTINGLY...
WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS MAKE IGOR A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING WITH IGOR BEFORE
RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...I AM
INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE STATISTICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...AND HAVE RAISED
THE WINDS FOR THAT TIME.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND
IS MOVING 275/17. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PART OF THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN A BIT MORE LATITUDE AND SLOW DOWN. WHILE
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE ARE
SOME LARGE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...ATTEMPTING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF BEING
TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.4N 39.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.5N 42.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 44.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.7N 49.7W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 53.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 19.5N 56.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 59.5W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
3119:

Just like I thought.

Everything in PR radar is just the northern feeder band only. the CoC isn't even on PR radar yet...

It's another behemoth in the same class as Ike and Alex...

We will have to see how the situation evolves and whether it tightens up more, or just does the "blow up and dominate the basin" thing like Alex did...
Quoting MrstormX:
Tell me that's not a Tropical Depression.



that's not a depression. Where is the surface circulation? Doesn't have one. What about the mid level circulation? Very ill defined. This is a convective tropical blob at the moment. A lot of pretty convection doesn't mean anything if there is next to no rotation present.
Someone with knowlege please tell me. Do you think East coast of Fl. is out of the way of all these storms.

I asked the question the other day and then could not stay for an answer.

StormW do you thibk florida is "safe"
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM IGOR AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP 11, 2010 SPECIAL EDITION


Excellent, as always Chief. Looks like the fate of the east coast is riding on the trough coming through as usual. They (models) called Earl pretty well, but didn't say when. Looks like the same scenario, with similar stakes. 92L is gonna open (her) hurt locker, at best a TS in Central America will not bode well for them. The last one killed 1000's. And 92L is in my back yard! You can bet I'm gonna be all over it, like white on rice! (um, not brown rice, the bleached, processed rice that's not as good for you as the brown rice)
3137. ackee
when do u guys 92L will be upgraded to a TD
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
No eye with Igor, his heaviest convection eroded do to dry air entrainment earlier this morning leading to warming and collapsing of cold cloud tops. An eye is not present, it is just an exposed center of circulation due to the dry air present.

I think the 11 AM discussion said a banding eye feature is present.
Thanx STORMW!! next to Dr masters ... You are the man!
Quoting MrstormX:
Tell me that's not a Tropical Depression.



Looks like julia will be the one in the carribean, karl off the african coast line
Quoting pipelines:


that's not a depression. Where is the surface circulation? Doesn't have one. What about the mid level circulation? Very ill defined. This is a convective tropical blob at the moment. A lot of pretty convection doesn't mean anything if there is next to no rotation present.


It does have a surface circulation
3143. MZT
Quoting RecordSeason:
3119:
It's another behemoth in the same class as Ike and Alex.

Nah, it's not in Alex's class of "monsoon" patterns. Alex was freaking *massive* and could pull moisture from the Pacific before even landing on the Yucutan.
In the satellite loops, I noticed that there is a touch of a southerly movement. Anyone else seeing this??
Karl vill develop quickly, quietly, schmoothly, und totally wissout pleasure!
Quoting ackee:
when do u guys 92L will be upgraded to a TD
Later today if its convective organization can persist, if not, then tomorrow.
You have gotta be kidding me.


...IGOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 11
Location: 17.4N 39.5W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM IGOR AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP 11, 2010 SPECIAL EDITION
Great update Storm.How are you today?I have been praying for you.As for the second trough, didnt you mention something about that last week saying it looked like it would be a little flat?Correct me if I am wrong.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It does have a surface circulation

Planes are going inside 92L again, right?
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM IGOR AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP 11, 2010 SPECIAL EDITION


Thank you for the Saturday update, StormW. Keeping a close eye on 92L.
3152. MZT
The dry air seems to have "thinned" Igor some, but he has good banding structure regardless.
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM IGOR AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP 11, 2010 SPECIAL EDITION

Thanks for the Saturday update Storm...and good morning!
Quoting Neapolitan:
For the visually-minded among us, here is a graph of the season's named (and soon-to-be-named) storms up to now:



LMAO
It seems like 92L is starting to get it's act together
I would not be surprised if 92L becomes a TS today let alone TD 11.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It does have a surface circulation


What's your evidence of this?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Misses Trough


Misses Trough


See's an opening.



I hope we get the later of the 3 models.
for "missing" the trough, they all seem to impart a prominent NW turn a little too early from what I see at the moment. I just don;t see that trough having THAT MUCH influence on him at this point. A gradual WMW movement yes, but not a pronounces NW turn like that. Stay tuned...
Quoting tropicfreak:
I would not be surprised if 92L becomes a TS today let alone TD 11.


it would be TD 12
Why are people's comments hidden? I keep pressing Show all but nothing happens.
...
Never Mind.
Gotta run. I for sure would not worry about Igor to much as the real player for now is soon to be JULIA from Invest 92L. Looks like a Tx./La. storm coming to me as Julia should turn toward the North when it enters the BOC/GOM. Just my opinion. Later all!
Quoting pipelines:


What's your evidence of this?


Could be the NHCs description of a broad area of low pressure, added to the fact that the surface maps have shown the low for about 2 days now
Quoting pipelines:


What's your evidence of this?
The NHC stated yesterday evening that an aircraft investigating the system found a well-defined surface circulation. Satellite imagery along with microwave agree that a surface circulation is present, it is just broad at the time being.
Quoting MrstormX:
Tell me that's not a Tropical Depression.



Thats not a tropical depression. Happy now? ;)
Quoting MrstormX:


Miami, those are pretty meager. This could be reminiscent of an '05 system.
If it forms as it seems, I don't see it being the "compact" system you call it (that is if you mean "small" when you say "compact"). I could see this blow up as a rather large, substantial system depending on the track.


Note the "M"s
I expect it to be classified at 5PM today:

3169. MZT
The image from StormW's blog: Look to the far right... appears there is a wave not even on the African continent yet... about to land on Somalia. Things are really queued up.

Quoting pipelines:


that's not a depression. Where is the surface circulation? Doesn't have one. What about the mid level circulation? Very ill defined. This is a convective tropical blob at the moment. A lot of pretty convection doesn't mean anything if there is next to no rotation present.


It does have a surface circulation.
Quoting StormW:


Thank you! I'm doing ok. Yes, I did...mentioned a more zonal, flatter pattern for a brief period.

How are you?
Doing great.Looks like I was paying attention in class.LOL
Lets see how 92L does in low Wind Shear, no Dry Air, and TCHP values over 100 in the W CAR.

May try to pull a Wilma.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it would be TD 12


Correct.
Wow was away all day yesterday. Igor was 35 mph last time I checked. 92L was at 30% while 93L didn't exist or even have a circle yet. Things sure have picked up.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it would be TD 12


Oh sorry lol.
NEW BLOG!
3179. MZT
I would think we'll see a new Dr Masters post soon. He usually chimes in after an 11AM update and indicates his level of agreement with the NHC
I would not rule out the development of yet another tropical depression later today into tomorrow from 93L.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


Could be the NHCs description of a broad area of low pressure, added to the fact that the surface maps have shown the low for about 2 days now


to be a low doesn't require a surface circulation. If there was a defined surface circulation, it would already be declared a depression.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lets see how 92L does in low Wind Shear, no Dry Air, and TCHP values over 100 in the W CAR.

May try to pull a Wilma.


Except for the nearly stationary movement part.
Call me a skipping cd but I still say that 92l/futer julia has been talked about for 3 days and it is still just an invest. Meanwhile there is a 70 mph storm that IS going to be a major cane that has been written off because all storms this year at that latitude have curved out to sea. Ok climatology says that only 20% of storms at that lat go on to hit the east coast. However if i point a loaded weapon at you and tell you that there is only a 20% chance of you getting hit will you stand there. The answer is is a most certain no!!!!
3184. MZT
TropicalAnalystwx13, my "Spidey sense" proved correct - LOL
Has a TCFA been issued for 92L?
3187. CalTex
Quoting CajunTexan:
Another day in the season of 2010,
Which systems will lose and which ones will win,
Some are concerned with 92L's convection,
Others still waiting for Gastons resurection,
Will 92L go to Mexico, Fla, or out to sea,
But on its way out good luck to Haiti,
Where Igor is traveling conditions are hell,
and right behind him comes 93L,
Tropics heating up with 3 systems to track,
Maybe for the blog it'll bring sanity back.






Awesome...
Quoting StormW:
Hey gang,
Can you do me a favor and ignore this clown? I have him on ignore, and am getting pretty tired of seeing his garbage!


Quoting pipelines:


that's not a depression. Where is the surface circulation? Doesn't have one. What about the mid level circulation? Very ill defined. This is a convective tropical blob at the moment. A lot of pretty convection doesn't mean anything if there is next to no rotation present.


Funny, I'm about to be higher qualified than storm in terms of qualification in meteorology in a year after I get my degree in atmospheric science next fall.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Why are people's comments hidden? I keep pressing Show all but nothing happens.


When that happens to me I have to exit out of WU then come back in. That usually resets it to show all for me. :)
3191. help4u
Igor is a fish!Just like Earl and the rest,everything in Atlantic heads north and in gulf west to mexico.Pattern has not changed all season even though everyone keeps saying next week it will change.This has been going on for 6 weeks now, and nothing major even close.This is why people pay no attention when their really is a storm, been told before and nothing happens.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Why are people's comments hidden? I keep pressing Show all but nothing happens.



I've done the same thing and nothing. Could be a glitch or something. Who knows....
Quoting StormW:
Hey gang,
Can you do me a favor and ignore this clown? I have him on ignore, and am getting pretty tired of seeing his garbage!


Quoting pipelines:


that's not a depression. Where is the surface circulation? Doesn't have one. What about the mid level circulation? Very ill defined. This is a convective tropical blob at the moment. A lot of pretty convection doesn't mean anything if there is next to no rotation present.


Well Dr Masters it looks like you have everyone on ignore who doesnt agree with your opinion or who offers a different point of view. Correct?
Quoting kuppenskup:


Well Dr Masters it looks like you have everyone on ignore who doesnt agree with your opinion or who offers a different point of view. Correct?


What are you talking about? Dr Masters is a highly respected individual who is open to any opioion. There are just people on here who jump the gun on everything. This Blog would be worthless if it wasnt for Dr Masters.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta run. I for sure would not worry about Igor to much as the real player for now is soon to be JULIA from Invest 92L. Looks like a Tx./La. storm coming to me as Julia should turn toward the North when it enters the BOC/GOM. Just my opinion. Later all!

Just a "Venge-cast" 92L Becomes Julia and tromps through the Caribbean, turns right, swoops across Cuba, stops for a Mohito, gets "plastered" then stumbles into the eastern GOM, recovers from hangover, gets strong and heads straight Tampa to pay back all those Tampons (or Tampa-ites or Tampers or whatever you call them) for making fun of the rest of Florida while they haven't been hit for decades! Tongue planted firmly in cheek!
Quoting kuppenskup:


What are you talking about? Dr Masters is a highly respected individual who is open to any opioion. There are just people on here who jump the gun on everything. This Blog would be worthless if it wasnt for Dr Masters.

Im just tired of people in high positions who once you dont agree with their viewpoint they turn on you and this happens to be one of those times. We're just offering an opinion on what we see and all of a suddent were called clowns and get ignored. What's all that about?
Quoting kuppenskup:

Im just tired of people in high positions who once you dont agree with their viewpoint they turn on you and this happens to be one of those times. We're just offering an opinion on what we see and all of a suddent were called clowns and get ignored. What's all that about?


Well I know you for example everytime a storm forms you wanna know when it's gonna hit South Florida. That's all you care about and you promote that. That's not what were here for. Were here to monitor these systems and offer and educated guess not to wishcast a storm.
5 days Out

3199. Vero1


Here's the projections up to 7 day's out incase
anyones intreasted.

Igor will put everyone on the EC, sitting on the edge of their seats. My question is, if Igor continues on a w to wnw track how does he recurve? I don't see any mention from the NHC of it. Looks like were in for a treat.
Quoting kuppenskup:


Ok man. Hopefully I didnt get myself blocked for community standards but I just had to get it off my chest


what the heck it this. Do u have 2 personalities? answering yourself doesn't sound to good.