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92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 92L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming.

The storm has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorm with limited low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow, thanks to an infusion of dry air last night that disrupted the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are hot, 29.5°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches today through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains tonight through Monday night, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba can expect rains in the 2 - 4 inch range. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border.

Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.

The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

Tropical Depression Twelve forms
Tropical Depression Twelve formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning. You can follow the progress of TD 12 through the Cape Verdes today using our wundermap.

Next post
I'll have a new post Monday morning, and perhaps late this afternoon if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

4001. DDR
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


GFS consistently predicted (for 36 hours) a hurricane in the Gulf or one moving from the Caribbean toward the East Coast by the end of the run. This time it shows two components.


The gfs has also been persistent in showing a large area of disturbed weather over the island by weeks end,things could get intersting here once again!.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Are You still using the old computer or the new one? How are you posting here now?


New One
Quoting StormW:


I'll try to do a graphic once I finish my synopsis. Basically, what I'm saying is...I believe he will be further west than indicated before he makes a "good" turn


Like his Cape Verde-hurricane predecessors this year, essentially.
Quoting lickitysplit:
Seems to me that Igor's westerly path has ceased and he's now making a slight turn to the north. I see a sharp westerly turn again tho in just a few days as that coming high blocks him in. There is a strong chance for a new england hit.


I see a wobble, no definite pull to the north as of yet....
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Are You still using the old computer or the new one? How are you posting here now?


Created a new account
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
I dont know about anyone else but the appearance of the disturbance in the carib (invest 92) is putting together a classic S feature. Normally when I see this happen the Depression is about to develop. and convection seems to be on the rise... Any other thoughts on the carib developing (92)????
Also, first time seeing black in the AVN. If I am reading recon right pressure n the area is at 1005 mb.
Repost:

I dont know about anyone else but the appearance of the disturbance in the carib (invest 92) is putting together a classic S feature. Normally when I see this happen the Depression is about to develop. and convection seems to be on the rise... Any other thoughts on the carib developing (92)????
Quoting Jeff9641:


Whoever said that is wrong as more troughs are predicted and stronger as well. FL could be in trouble as the GFS is indicating a powerful hurricane in the Gulf at the end of the month and anyone of these troughs could shoot any system in the Gulf NE. It really looks as the real peak for this year may still be coming. The wave on Africa is the one that the GFS sends into the Caribbean I think.


The majority of people on here said it was coming and we would see development further W as well. This came out of the mouths of the ones that most people on this forum look up to so much. Just wondering what happened???
Quoting robert88:
So when is this big pattern change supposed to happen and keeps storms moving more W?


And why would you want that to happen? You know I do look at hurricanes in awe and I think it is a thrill to prepare and experience them, but the truth of the matter is that after I experience the full wrath of hurricane Katrina I decided that to me it is better to see them from far and see them recurving. I have my parents living in Puerto Rico my father with a heart condition. Believe me when I tell you if there is one thing I am asking God right now is for Igor to recurve north ASAP. Not to mention what would happen if that monster passes just south of PR and then just south of Hispaniola? Haiti which is devastated as it is right now would have another huge death toll including children. No I do not hope for pattern change and I am happy that so far there is something different this year that is causing Caribean storms to dissapear. This is not the norm and my fear is that before the season is over we will run out of luck.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Also, first time seeing black in the AVN. If I am reading recon right pressure n the area is at 1005 mb.


Recon is there right now??? I am in the air over Tallahassee... Cant see it from here.. LOL
Quoting StormW:


I'm not saying he definitely won't turn, but I think it will occur later.

Oh ok, just wanted to know if I was reading the chart correctly.
I'm thinkin' Igor watched the Falcons-Steelers game yesterday.

He predicted the scores pretty well until overtime.
Quoting weatherman12345:
??? Last time I checked everything in the carribean goes to Mexico or Texas


Well you might want to keep checking because after mid Sept comes it's very hard to have system hit TX. It's normally FL or MX that gets it.
Good Morning. While the US will probably be at risk in late-September and October from more "local" storms spinning up from frontal remnants, I am glad to see, per the current model runs, that our current batch of CV storms appear to be fish-storms for the moment.....A potential season where the most powerful CV storms that form go out to sea is a good thing folks.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Recon is there right now??? I am in the air over Tallahassee... Cant see it from here.. LOL
URNT15 KWBC 131213
NOAA2 WXWXA 92L3 HDOB 18 20100913
120330 1920N 07415W 5259 05503 0304 -014 -080 140021 021 018 001 00
120400 1918N 07416W 5259 05503 0304 -013 -081 141020 020 018 000 00
120430 1916N 07418W 5259 05505 0304 -010 -132 142020 020 019 000 00
120500 1915N 07420W 5259 05504 0305 -011 -117 143021 023 019 000 00
120530 1913N 07422W 5259 05505 0305 -013 -071 139021 022 021 000 00
120600 1911N 07424W 5260 05503 0304 -011 -122 144020 020 021 000 00
120630 1910N 07426W 5260 05502 0303 -014 -120 140020 021 022 000 00
120700 1908N 07428W 5259 05504 0303 -012 -113 138020 021 022 001 00
120730 1906N 07430W 5260 05502 0304 -015 -105 143019 019 022 000 00
120800 1905N 07432W 5259 05503 0304 -016 -107 136019 019 021 000 00
120830 1903N 07434W 5259 05503 0303 -018 -085 136020 021 021 001 00
120900 1901N 07436W 5259 05503 0302 -018 -091 137020 021 020 000 00
120930 1900N 07438W 5260 05500 0302 -018 -101 133020 021 020 000 00
121000 1858N 07440W 5260 05502 0302 -019 -089 137020 020 020 000 00
121030 1857N 07442W 5259 05500 0302 -020 -071 136020 020 019 000 00
121100 1855N 07444W 5259 05503 0302 -020 -066 137020 021 018 000 00
121130 1853N 07446W 5260 05500 0302 -020 -064 137021 022 015 000 00
121200 1852N 07448W 5260 05500 0302 -018 -062 137020 021 014 000 00
121230 1850N 07450W 5261 05499 0302 -015 -064 138019 019 015 000 00
121300 1848N 07452W 5260 05502 0303 -017 -061 140021 022 013 000 00

Quoting GTcooliebai:

Jeef were expected to have NE winds here for the rest of the week and in to next week. Also lower than normal rain chances. I do see a weak trough swinging by the Northeast later in the week as winds shift to the SW, but even that and all washes out as NYC is only predicting a 30% chance of rain. I got my forecasts through wunderground and TWC.


Come next week things look to start getting quite wet across FL as deep tropical moisture lifts up from the Caribbean. Dry this week but wet next week.
Quoting StormW:


You're kidding, right?


Good Morning Storm!!!
That is some piece of work. Beautiful. Not gonna lie.

is Igor moving just South due West?
I think Igor has finished his intensification.

For now.
4022. bird72
Storm W, the high in 35n and 70w, will be an important factor in the path of Igor?
What a beautiful monster.

""
Quoting LPstormspotter2:


Created a new account


What was your other handle?
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Repost:

I dont know about anyone else but the appearance of the disturbance in the carib (invest 92) is putting together a classic S feature. Normally when I see this happen the Depression is about to develop. and convection seems to be on the rise... Any other thoughts on the carib developing (92)????


It looks more consolidated. That is what it needed to get more organized and form a center of circulation. Still, dry air and interference from land are not going to make it easy. It's still not going to be a non-event when it gets here though, I'm watching it pretty close.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
That is some piece of work. Beautiful. Not gonna lie.



Kinda looks like Sonic the Hedge Hog
Quoting Cotillion:
I think Igor has finished his intensification.

For now.
Agreed
AL, 11, 2010091312, , BEST, 0, 176N, 492W, 130, 933, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 30, 40, 1010, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, D,
good morning, nhc goofed on Igor's coordinates in the 8 a.m. update:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
Guys we had the most impressive storm on the northside of Orlando yesterday. I had a lightning strike hit my tree in my backyard. The lightning was striking every second for about an hour. Lightning has been very dangerous in Orlando lately on Friday night at a high school football game at wekiva high 2 people were struck and Saturday night at 9pm very dangerous lightning as well that lasted a few hours.
AL, 12, 2010091312, , BEST, 0, 146N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 60,
That, if verified by an official advisory, would make Igor the 51st most intense hurricane in history, just behind Lenny of 1999.

That means there are now 3 hurricanes from this year alone in the top 100 or so list.
Quoting Chicklit:
good morning, nhc goofed on Igor's coordinates in the 8 a.m. update:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.


Oops.
They're beautiful when they are out at sea, but they begin to lose that beauty as they come closer to land. I hope Igor remains beautiful.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What was your other handle?


LPStormspotter... had the yellow race car as the avatar
Igor is still moving just due West at 8am this morning
A brief rundown:

--2010's ACE now stands at 72.285. That puts this year ahead of current "active" season years '97, '09, and '02, and ties it with '07.

--Depending on what Igor and Julia do, this season's ACE will surpass 2006's sometime tomorrow.

--The mean average ACE for the active period is 101. Again, depending on a few factors, 2010 may surpass that sometime late this week. (next up is 2001).

--Igor has now been a hurricane for six TWOs, and a major hurricane for three. By way of comparison, Alex was a hurricane for six TWOs, Danielle was a hurricane for 27 (and a major for four), and Earl was a hurricane for 22 TWO (a major for 14).

--Since 8/22 (a 23-day span), seven storms have been named, or one every 3.29 days. (Contrast this to 1995, which saw ten in a 35-day span, or one every 3.5 days.)

--Also since 8/22, only one day--September 5th--had no named storms. Average daily ACE over that period has been 2.7474.

--2010 has now seen more named September storms than '95, '96, '97, '99, and '09, and it's seen as many as '01, '03, '04, '06, and '08.

--To-date, HDP (Hurricane Destruction Potential) stands at 54.1275.
That's a pretty major oops. Wondering why no one has corrected it.
Good Morning Hurricane Fans!!

Igor is veeeeerrrry impressive on visible. Check it out!!

Quoting LPstormspotter2:


LPStormspotter... had the yellow race car as the avatar


Hmmm...Have you tried emailing Jeff himself?
2005 had an ACE of 248.1. 2004 had an ACE OF 225, AND 1995 had an ACE of 227.4. And as of Sept. 13 2010 we have an ACE OF 70.5. So still have a lot of catching up to do.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Agreed
when is igor going to go thru his EWRC
I believe the NHC believes that Igor will track just to the west of Bermuda. That would mean that Bermuda gets the eastern eyewall.

As a major hurricane, also...
4047. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N54W TO 23N60W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W 28N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W 30N51W 28N60W 27N70W 25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 22N58W TO 19N59W 17N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 20N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N24W TO A 27N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
19N35W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N43W.

4048. bassis
Quoting DestinJeff:


Morning DJ

Just got here. any idea if he went through ewrc last night
Weakening flag off?

It had a mini-peak about 5 hours ago, then weakened, but now it's got the ring back for two consecutive frames...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Well you might want to keep checking because after mid Sept comes it's very hard to have system hit TX. It's normally FL or MX that gets it.


I would have to disagree....according to the map Ike just put up of storms that developed and landed in the last 100 yrs ( from this date thru Oct.15th I think). Fl didn't have much of anything. Matter of fact the Gulf really had nothing for the most part. I would love to see your facts to back that statement up. I've been wrong many times.....
Quoting dracko19:
Good Morning Hurricane Fans!!

Igor is veeeeerrrry impressive on visible. Check it out!!



Reminds me of when I open the lid on my blender while I'm making marguaritas and look down at it spinning, except bigger.
4053. angiest
Good morning. I see GFS continues to be interesting at the very long range. Once again we have a hurricane crossing the Yucatan into the BOC, and now it would appear another storm in the central and western Atlantic.

Quoting StormW:
Food for thought...

Here are two graphics...with a good weakness outlined...if you go to the site and loop it, you can clearly see it. This is why I think the turn will occur a little further west. Look how close he is to both trofs, and the weakness. Which way is he still going?





West
Ok I am curious that spot of Moisture West of Igor, it doesn't seem to even move, it changes form but is nearly stationary. Thoughts?
I know you've all seen this before, but holy blobova!!!

off to the salt mine.
have a great day everyone.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had an ACE of 248.1. 2004 had an ACE OF 225, AND 1995 had an ACE of 227.4. And as of Sept. 13 2010 we have an ACE OF 70.5. So still have a lot of catching up to do.


I think it'd be unfair to presume or expect this season to surpass those seasons.

Right now, the 2008 season is a good and fair target. It may be revised later on (I expect so), but for the time being. That ACE was 145 or so, around 24th on the provisional all time list.





Good morning, folks.

Igor looking awesome, steering gradually changing. 92L's got some convergence going on now, popping convection. And, the wavetrain is still coming!
Quoting Neapolitan:
A brief rundown:

--2010's ACE now stands at 72.285. That puts this year ahead of current "active" season years '97, '09, and '02, and ties it with '07.

--Depending on what Igor and Julia do, this season's ACE will surpass 2006's sometime tomorrow.

--The mean average ACE for the active period is 101. Again, depending on a few factors, 2010 may surpass that sometime late this week. (next up is 2001).

--Igor has now been a hurricane for six TWOs, and a major hurricane for three. By way of comparison, Alex was a hurricane for six TWOs, Danielle was a hurricane for 27 (and a major for four), and Earl was a hurricane for 22 TWO (a major for 14).

--Since 8/22 (a 23-day span), seven storms have been named, or one every 3.29 days. (Contrast this to 1995, which saw ten in a 35-day span, or one every 3.5 days.)

--Also since 8/22, only one day--September 5th--had no named storms. Average daily ACE over that period has been 2.7474.

--2010 has now seen more named September storms than '95, '96, '97, '99, and '09, and it's seen as many as '01, '03, '04, '06, and '08.

--To-date, HDP (Hurricane Destruction Potential) stands at 54.1275.



Actually we are not tied with 2007 we have surpassed 2007

2007:71.7
2010:72.285
This is another Julia, in terms of how fast she developed...You can already see the well-defined circulation:

Honestly folks, the track is still balancing on the edge of a razor.

The little peak in the ridge is still oriented in a way that is not at all favorable for any WNW or NW turn any time soon.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
2005 had an ACE of 248.1. 2004 had an ACE OF 225, AND 1995 had an ACE of 227.4. And as of Sept. 13 2010 we have an ACE OF 70.5. So still have a lot of catching up to do.


We should pass 1995 by mid October. Really feel we haven't anything yet. Once these Caribbean waters get tapped then watchout and could start getting tapped later next week by the wave that coming off Africa tomorrow. I do believe it's that wave that the GFS has been blowing up in the Caribbean for the past 5 or 6 runs.
hi this is my first time on here i just wanted to say this is just about the best weather site i have ever seen.
just one question where do the invests get there number from as they always seam to be either 90,91,or 92 is there a reason for this?

i am sat on a sail boat in puerto rico which up to now has been good this year with no major storms coming here
Quoting DDR:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


GFS consistently predicted (for 36 hours) a hurricane in the Gulf or one moving from the Caribbean toward the East Coast by the end of the run. This time it shows two components.


The gfs has also been persistent in showing a large area of disturbed weather over the island by weeks end,things could get intersting here once again!.


That's 384 hrs out and just another GFS fantasy
4067. angiest
Quoting mobileshadow:


That's 384 hrs out and just another GFS fantasy


Like when it had Danielle at that timeframe?
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Repost:

I dont know about anyone else but the appearance of the disturbance in the carib (invest 92) is putting together a classic S feature. Normally when I see this happen the Depression is about to develop. and convection seems to be on the rise... Any other thoughts on the carib developing (92)????


With the drier air to the NW, Id guess what your seeing is the interference of the drier air and at the end of the frame it looks like a S but really its just the drier air breaking apart some of that NW side.

However, this all based on the latest WV imagery, I see some instensification in the center of the storm and maybe some slight convection. The dry air is really making 92 into a smaller storm. Although other conditions are extremly favorable, that drier air needs to go before giving this system any real chance of intensification.
4069. Grothar
Quoting KanKunKid:


Reminds me of when I open the lid on my blender while I'm making marguaritas and look down at it spinning, except bigger.
lol. I can really go for one of those right now.
4071. angiest
Quoting Jeff9641:


We should pass 1995 by mid October. Really feel we haven't anything yet. Once these Caribbean waters get tapped then watchout and could start getting tapped later next week by the wave that coming off Africa tomorrow. I do believe it's that wave that the GFS has been blowing up in the Caribbean for the past 5 or 6 runs.


I have been considering that. GFS hasn't been developing to a true CV system behind Julia. I suppose it could be a miss, but right now the thing is still over land...
Quoting NOSinger:


I would have to disagree....according to the map Ike just put up of storms that developed and landed in the last 100 yrs ( from this date thru Oct.15th I think). Fl didn't have much of anything. Matter of fact the Gulf really had nothing for the most part. I would love to see your facts to back that statement up. I've been wrong many times.....


Here is my proof.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Typical_North_Atlantic_Tropical_Cyclone_Formation_in_September.pn g

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Typical_North_Atlantic_Tropical_Cyclone_Formation_in_October.png
Quoting Jeff9641:


We should pass 1995 by mid October. Really feel we haven't anything yet. Once these Caribbean waters get tapped then watchout and could start getting tapped later next week by the wave that coming off Africa tomorrow. I do believe it's that wave that the GFS has been blowing up in the Caribbean for the past 5 or 6 runs.


That wave/ hurricane that it is predicting is taking the same path that all of the Carribean storms have been taking this year, straight into Mexico.
Quoting Grothar:
That's a great picture. Would you happen to have the link for that?
There's going to be a lull at some point. Every season does. Even 2005 did to an extent.

I expect we're probably in the peak. This could be a classic active season.

A quietish June to July, a very active mid August to late September, a bit of a lull, before a secondary peak in mid October, with a storm thrown in November.

16-17/8-9/4-5.
4076. bassis
Quoting StormW:
Food for thought...

Here are two graphics...with a good weakness outlined...if you go to the site and loop it, you can clearly see it. This is why I think the turn will occur a little further west. Look how close he is to both trofs, and the weakness. Which way is he still going?





He is still moving due west
Come October, the Gulf states really need to watch the Caribbean. This is when more storms will form in the Caribbean, and this is when more will move North and target the Gulf states, or move north, then recurve, targetting Florida.
Quoting StormW:
Food for thought...

Here are two graphics...with a good weakness outlined...if you go to the site and loop it, you can clearly see it. This is why I think the turn will occur a little further west. Look how close he is to both trofs, and the weakness. Which way is he still going?





West. And as you (I think it was you) pointed out last night on the show, Igor seems to be compressing that dry air underneath the trof. Doesn't seem like it's affecting him at all.
Destin always talks about the feebleness of the chart, but maybe... just maybe... he did a 'Storm Whisperer' trick of his own.

Now, wouldn't that be ironic.
Quoting Cotillion:
There's going to be a lull at some point. Every season does. Even 2005 did to an extent.

I expect we're probably in the peak. This could be a classic active season.

A quietish June to July, a very active mid August to late September, a bit of a lull, before a secondary peak in mid October, with a storm thrown in November.

16-17/8-9/4-5.


Others, as well as I, still believe we haven't hit the peak of the season yet.
Morning folks! Holy Cow! Let me get a coffee before I try to digest this!!
good morning
4083. Grothar
Quoting cat5hurricane:
That's a great picture. Would you happen to have the link for that?


Yes. Just follow directions on posting.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come October, the Gulf states really need to watch the Caribbean. This is when more storms will form in the Caribbean, and this is when more will move North and target the Gulf states, or move north, then recurve, targetting Florida.
Yeah...that does seem to be the prevailing trend heading into autumn.
4085. angiest
Quoting NOSinger:


That wave/ hurricane that it is predicting is taking the same path that all of the Carribean storms have been taking this year, straight into Mexico.


I'll buy into the formation of the system at this range, but not the track.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Others, as well as I, still believe we haven't hit the peak of the season yet.


Others also believed Earl was going to be a Category Five.
4087. angiest
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Others, as well as I, still believe we haven't hit the peak of the season yet.


Count me, don't think we've hit peak and I think we will continue at least until the end of the official season.
4088. bird72
Quoting RecordSeason:
Honestly folks, the track is still balancing on the edge of a razor.

The little peak in the ridge is still oriented in a way that is not at all favorable for any WNW or NW turn any time soon.


I think that's a key variable to know, why Igor still going west.
Quoting Grothar:
from that loop it seems that igor takes a small shift to the wnw in the last 3 images s he crosses the like
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is my proof.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Typical_North_Atlantic_Tropical_Cyclone_Formation_in _September.pn g

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Typical_North_Atlantic_Tropical_Cyclone_Formation_in _October.png


Not sure that is PROOF....Those are likely scenarios...what about storms that HAVE developed in these two months, what have they done?? In Sept it shows more Likely to hit TX or La before Fl. Your opinion is fine, just would like to see TRUE facts of what storms HAVE done not what they would LIKELY do during these months, that's all!!
Jeff,

what was that that you were commenting below about having possibly 5 to 6 storms in just the next few weeks with recurving towards Florida? just wondering, thanks
Quoting Grothar:


Yes. Just follow directions on posting.

Link
Thanks
Quoting Cotillion:


I think it'd be unfair to presume or expect this season to surpass those seasons.

Right now, the 2008 season is a good and fair target. It may be revised later on (I expect so), but for the time being. That ACE was 145 or so, around 24th on the provisional all time list.


All is fair in love, war and hurricanes. I think it would be "unreasonable". On the other hand we got a late start in a "La Nina" season. If you are going for an ACE comparison, you may end up revising later. There is still a lot of untapped energy yet to be spent. The Caribbean hasn't even got suited up and showed up on the playing field yet.
I'm thinking, November 1st we can have a closer-to-accurate picture of the 2010 season.
4086:

Wait for post-season analysis.

In all likelihood, Earl actually was a category five briefly.
However, in 7 or 8 days...it's Sept. 21st..I would think the set-up is right but the CV storms should decrease...Also, if the ridging is in place at that time, then the typical late season storms will not go north but head west. It's all timing and there may be no hits from La to Florida if this continues which would be fine. Before you know it...the pattern change will take place but guess what it's Christmas!


Quoting StormW:


Well, it's been much slower to occur...all the information keeps getting pushed back in time.

On it's way though. The current MJO index shows that the MJO may be making that path back over our way



And the majority of forecast models indicate it should be in or near octants 1&2 in around 7-8 days

When this occurs, we should see that troffing off the east coast go bye bye, and see more ridging in place.









Quoting Jeff9641:


We should pass 1995 by mid October. Really feel we haven't anything yet. Once these Caribbean waters get tapped then watchout and could start getting tapped later next week by the wave that coming off Africa tomorrow. I do believe it's that wave that the GFS has been blowing up in the Caribbean for the past 5 or 6 runs.

I'm just rather amazed at how 2004 only had 15 named storms yet it surpassed 1995 in terms of ACE. It may be crazy, but I have this seasons total named storms at 20, and the ACE may be lower than all three of those yrs. So I guess it's irrelevant to the fact that the higher the number of storms does not mean the ACE will be as high either...
Quoting Cotillion:


Others also believed Earl was going to be a Category Five.


I'm pretty sure Earl was briefly a Category 5 hurricane.

If not, It came really close.
where do you and Tropical Analyst see this trend? do you have a website?
Quoting Halon056:
Ok I am curious that spot of Moisture West of Igor, it doesn't seem to even move, it changes form but is nearly stationary. Thoughts?
Quoting RecordSeason:
4086:

Wait for post-season analysis.

In all likelihood, Earl actually was a category five briefly.


People also said that for Gustav.
Shouldn't there be a 8 am update?
yikes
4103. calder
Beautiful storm, here's hoping that he doesn't hit anything. By the way, seems to be some confusion - Igor isn't and never was annular.
Quoting kshipre1:
Jeff,

what was that that you were commenting below about having possibly 5 to 6 storms in just the next few weeks with recurving towards Florida? just wondering, thanks


I didn't say all recurving towards FL. Any that get in the Caribbean could be trouble. Here's an example below. 0Z RUN.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_384.shtml
4105. angiest
Quoting Cotillion:


People also said that for Gustav.


It took 10 years to reclassify Andrew. Gustav was just two years ago.
Quoting NWWNCAVL:
Shouldn't there be a 8 am update?


Igor has no advisories posted.

---

Yeah, unreasonable would be a better word, KanKunKid. Also agree with the November observation.

---

Quoting GTcooliebai:

I'm just rather amazed at how 2004 only had 15 named storms yet it surpassed 1995 in terms of ACE. It may be crazy, but I have this seasons total named storms at 20, and the ACE may be lower than all three of those yrs. So I guess it's irrelevant to the fact that the higher the number of storms does not mean the ACE will be as high either...


It happens a fair amount.

2007 is a good example of that. 15 storms, but below average in ACE.

2005 eclipsed 1950 by 5 in ACE... despite having 14 more storms (15, but one was ST, therefore not counting) and 5 more hurricanes.

A big Cape Verde season tends to mean a big ACE season.
thanks
4111. RJT185
Quoting Neapolitan:
A brief rundown:

--2010's ACE now stands at 72.285. That puts this year ahead of current "active" season years '97, '09, and '02, and ties it with '07.

--Depending on what Igor and Julia do, this season's ACE will surpass 2006's sometime tomorrow.

--The mean average ACE for the active period is 101. Again, depending on a few factors, 2010 may surpass that sometime late this week. (next up is 2001).

--Igor has now been a hurricane for six TWOs, and a major hurricane for three. By way of comparison, Alex was a hurricane for six TWOs, Danielle was a hurricane for 27 (and a major for four), and Earl was a hurricane for 22 TWO (a major for 14).

--Since 8/22 (a 23-day span), seven storms have been named, or one every 3.29 days. (Contrast this to 1995, which saw ten in a 35-day span, or one every 3.5 days.)

--Also since 8/22, only one day--September 5th--had no named storms. Average daily ACE over that period has been 2.7474.

--2010 has now seen more named September storms than '95, '96, '97, '99, and '09, and it's seen as many as '01, '03, '04, '06, and '08.

--To-date, HDP (Hurricane Destruction Potential) stands at 54.1275.


Thanks
4100:

For Gustav, Cuba recorded a surface gust of 215mph before the instrument broke. Assuming a 20% error in measurement, that still puts the gust at 172mph, which is around the same strength as Andrew's maximum gust of 177mph.

This is why I think Gustav was cat5 at landfall in Cuba.

I always thought that based on satellite presentation.
4113. Relix
Some people in PR are in panic XD! They say the trough will fail and we'll get a direct impact. It should turn WNW in the next 12 hours or so.
Igor is a Beautiful hurricane
Quoting lovejessicaa9:


Just does not want to go above the 18.....

Heck I don't blame him.
It seems like we are in a pattern etched in stone...The maps looks the same they did in late July....The break between highs in the Atlantic which all started with the first re-curve and I believe that contibuted to the lingering weakness there. Also we have the riding over the north Gulf. If this continues you can have 40 storms and they will all miss which is okay but it seems like our luck shoulod run out...any comments


The moisture spot WNW of Igor, has been there for sometime. What is it?
Quoting cat5hurricane:
lol. I can really go for one of those right now.


It's still a little early for me (CST) but not by much. The little town here on the beach (Puerto Moreles, just 30 KM south of Cancun) was Jimmy Buffet's inspiration for the song "Marguaritaville".
There are other things to do here such as snorkeling and fishing. Marguaritaville wasn't a fishing song. Tequila and mix is available at the 7-11 on the corner and it's cheap (Jose Cuervo Especial 6 bucks 500ml) and you can have beer delivered with your pizza. It is a "moisture rich" (alcohol) environment. So, it was no coincidence that I was staring at the open top of a blender full of marguarita(s).

And yes, there is a woman to blame.

There always is.
Quoting angiest:


It took 10 years to reclassify Andrew. Gustav was just two years ago.


Yes, correct. Could Floyd end up being revised in years to come? He did hit 155mph, just shy of Category 5 status.

Earl was a lot further away. 11mph may not seem much, but when put next to storms like Floyd and Gustav, it's a sizeable increase in the difference between actual speed and Cat 5 classification. Personal opinion that Earl was not even close. If I'm wrong, happy to take a big wedge of crow with lemon.

However, still a lot of 'coulds'. 145mph, 155mph is beyond bad enough.

I think I've ended up detracting from my original point, though. Never mind.
Well, the first trough missed so far N it's a joke. It never even got close enough to tap the outflow, nevermind steering Igor...

The second one doesn't really look any deeper just yet...
Quoting Jeff9641:


We should pass 1995 by mid October. Really feel we haven't anything yet. Once these Caribbean waters get tapped then watchout and could start getting tapped later next week by the wave that coming off Africa tomorrow. I do believe it's that wave that the GFS has been blowing up in the Caribbean for the past 5 or 6 runs.


Something weird about the Caribbean so far this year. All that fuel and these systems can't seem to get it going. Alex was able to get to a TS and everything else has fizzled.
Quoting portcharlotte:
It seems like we are in a pattern etched in stone...The maps looks the same they did in late July....The break between highs in the Atlantic which all started with the first re-curve and I believe that contibuted to the lingering weakness there. Also we have the riding over the north Gulf. If this continues you can have 40 storms and they will all miss which is okay but it seems like our luck shoulod run out...any comments


So far but the GFS is showing some pretty strong troughs the end of the month and this could open up the possibilities of any storm in the Caribbean to possibly go north. Once October then we may really be in trouble.
Quoting StormW:
Food for thought...

Here are two graphics...with a good weakness outlined...if you go to the site and loop it, you can clearly see it. This is why I think the turn will occur a little further west. Look how close he is to both trofs, and the weakness. Which way is he still going?



Fantastic explanation. Goes to show that troughs don't always turn em, don't always protect you from a hit. Sometimes the steering wins the battle.
4124. Relix
Quoting Halon056:


The moisture spot WNW of Igor, has been there for sometime. What is it?


Weakness spot
4125. bjdsrq
Quoting portcharlotte:
It seems like we are in a pattern etched in stone...The maps looks the same they did in late July....The break between highs in the Atlantic which all started with the first re-curve and I believe that contibuted to the lingering weakness there. Also we have the riding over the north Gulf. If this continues you can have 40 storms and they will all miss which is okay but it seems like our luck shoulod run out...any comments


So far, if you aren't a fish or a mexican, you aren't going to see a storm at your door step. Looks like the same story for the rest of the month. Don't forget the analog year is 1998, and that brought Georges through the keys in early October.
4126. Grothar
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
from that loop it seems that igor takes a small shift to the wnw in the last 3 images s he crosses the like


SHHH! The westcaster may hear you. I do agree with Storm that it will go a little further west than predicted though, before the turn. Here is a confusing little map, that shows just that.

Anyone know if there is a buoy that is close enough to Igor to record wave heights close to the center, must be around 80 foot waves that would be my guestimate.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Something weird about the Caribbean so far this year. All that fuel and these systems can't seem to get it going. Alex was able to get to a TS and everything else has fizzled.


I agree but I'm not fooled by this so far. Too much heat there to not have many Caribbean threats. That heat has to get released it's just when will this happen.
4129. Relix
Quoting RecordSeason:
Well, the first trough missed so far N it's a joke. It never even got close enough to tap the outflow, nevermind steering Igor...

The second one doesn't really look any deeper just yet...


it does. Way deeper as well
Quoting KanKunKid:


It's still a little early for me (CST) but not by much. The little town here on the beach (Puerto Moreles, just 30 KM south of Cancun) was Jimmy Buffet's inspiration for the song "Marguaritaville".
There are other things to do here such as snorkeling and fishing. Marguaritaville wasn't a fishing song. Tequila and mix is available at the 7-11 on the corner and it's cheap (Jose Cuervo Especial 6 bucks 500ml) and you can have beer delivered with your pizza. It is a "moisture rich" (alcohol) environment. So, it was no coincidence that I was staring at the open top of a blender full of marguarita(s).

And yes, there is a woman to blame.

There always is.



Yup! ;) And, not much further is the Blue Parrot down in Playa del Carmen, pictures of him there. Been there several times. Hoping 92L stays disorganized and no grief comes your way.
And there's still no guarantee that the Caribbean will light up.

Cue the 1995 map again:



Is it likely? Yes. Is it certain beyond any doubt? No.

(For the record, I do believe something will occur in the Caribbean. Thinking next month.)
wht i m seeing from the storm history and igors historical corodinates is that hes been traveling along 17,70 since yesterday and hasnt moved in longitude apart from one were he went to 17,60 then back to 17,70 im only ameture but from what ive just seen on satilite loops hes taken a... smalll slightttt budge to 17,80 and the trough is starting to affect him but im only a ameture but i think hes going to keep heading due west and scrape the northen lesser antties then head wnw or nw and hit bermuda but yeah like i said i am a ameture im not always right but thats what i belive is going to happen ... if im wrong and he goes strait thru the lesser antties then hell get to were 92l was encounter low windshear and very warm seas intensify to cat 5 go thru EWRC and come back to a much larger cat 5 igor near yuctan and the gulf and.. .. yeah... all hell but lets dream let us pray that dont happen and that im wrong :( ps... sorry for the bad spellings im not going to make a excusse i just dont spell good and am a complete numpty
4133. luigi18
Quoting lovejessicaa9:


where did you get it Jessi
4117:

that is a patch of thunderstorms embedded under a ridge of high pressure.

this ridge is exerting a southerly steering influence on Igor, totally offsetting whatever northerly pull the troughs may have been exerting on him.

It is fortunate that Igor is currently striking the edge of the high at an angle that has it slightly "pinned" on it's current course.

If the ridge slides slightly to the north, Igor will turn SW.
The big question on everyone's mind is where is IGOR going to end up? Let's look at the models this morning and see what's happening.

The NOGAPS model, which predicted some strong ridging over the NE USA coast has relented a bit this morning and is now predicting a VERY strong ridge over the Central Atlantic and a weaker ridge over the Great Lakes. There is a weakness in between the ridges and IGOR "Shoots the gap". This is really bad news if you like Bermuda to look like a habital island.



The ECMWF shows that same strong ridge in the Central ATL, but it extends it all the way to the Great Lakes ridge and essentially BLOCKS IGOR from going North. This would be bad news if you own Beachfront Property along the central East Coast.



Then there's the GFS. The GFS says YES to that strong ridge in the central ATL. It says the Great Lakes Ridge will be a bit further west and it says there isn't much in between, so IGOR shoots right up north. Bermuda gets a taste of IGOR, but will survive.



Now we get into the "who do you believe" category. Even the NHC forecasters hedge their bets here, talking about "model consensus" and even throwing it back at us to make our own guesses. Check it out! This is from the 5am AST update from the NHC discussion on IGOR:

...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH FLATTENING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE RIDGING NORTH OF IGOR...RESULTING IN A TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT FROM THE LAST CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN
THAT DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

So, they aren't sure which model to believe either..

The GFS has a historical cold bias for fronts/troughs. They tend to overdo them and their effects. However, the GFS is the only model that properly initializes IGOR's power at the onset. Still, it comes down to those ridges over the Great Lakes and Central ATL. That is the key to IGOR's eventually destination. I doubt anyone here can conclusively tell us as even the models are in disagreement. Perhaps we can get some historical data on flattening troughs and ridging off the NE USA coast by other posters?

My bet is (and this is just a guess....I'm only an amature forecaster....don't hate me) is we are going to have a weakness strong enough to spare the USA east coast. Bermuda on the other hand is still very much in trouble. If I lived on Bermuda, I might want to take that 2 week long vacation to Chicago I've been saving up for.
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
Anyone know if there is a buoy that is close enough to Igor to record wave heights close to the center, must be around 80 foot waves that would be my guestimate.
Link
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Something weird about the Caribbean so far this year. All that fuel and these systems can't seem to get it going. Alex was able to get to a TS and everything else has fizzled.


I came down after Alex and have my hair blow dryer on full blast trying to inhibit growth by blowing in hot dry air. I'm aiming it east.
Quoting Cotillion:


Igor has no advisories posted.

---

Yeah, unreasonable would be a better word, KanKunKid. Also agree with the November observation.

---



It happens a fair amount.

2007 is a good example of that. 15 storms, but below average in ACE.

2005 eclipsed 1950 by 5 in ACE... despite having 14 more storms (15, but one was ST, therefore not counting) and 5 more hurricanes.

A big Cape Verde season tends to mean a big ACE season.

Thanks, I was wondering if it had something to do with the longevity and strength of the storm. And since it's been an active Cape Verde, I can see why we will surpass some of those yrs.
4139. Relix
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
Current center fix from Colorado State is near 17.55N @ 1245UTC, which is 0.15 SOUTH of the previous NHC center fix...
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
Anyone know if there is a buoy that is close enough to Igor to record wave heights close to the center, must be around 80 foot waves that would be my guestimate.


41041 is closest, at last update was still 257 nm away....
Meteorology is interesting to say the least...that's why we are on this blog but consistant patterns that seem to never change can be quite boring. Does anyone realize how many weeks have been spent analyzing whether these CV storms will go west or re-pcurve? It seems like it is not meant to happen this year. No one wants disaster but from a weather enthusiast standpoint it is quite bizarre to see this happen over and over again!
Quoting Cotillion:
And there's still no guarantee that the Caribbean will light up.

Cue the 1995 map again:



Is it likely? Yes. Is it certain beyond any doubt? No.

(For the record, I do believe something will occur in the Caribbean. Thinking next month.)


What was the temps in the Caribbean in 95 I wonder? Apples to Apples.
4139:

This is bad...

It's getting under the peak of the ridge.

People better hope the ridge erodes some in the next few hours or the storm is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY south of the cone by 2p.m. edt...
4145. luigi18
Quoting Relix:
Some people in PR are in panic XD! They say the trough will fail and we'll get a direct impact. It should turn WNW in the next 12 hours or so.


Yo ya me estoy preocupando lol!
Quoting Halon056:


41041 is closest, at last update was still 257 nm away....


Interesting note though, ships report 106 miles away WVHT was 16.4 ft....
Quoting bjdsrq:


So far, if you aren't a fish or a mexican, you aren't going to see a storm at your door step. Looks like the same story for the rest of the month. Don't forget the analog year is 1998, and that brought Georges through the keys in early October.


Hey! I'm not Mexican!
4148. bassis
4135. dracko19
Just the facts man,

simple and to the point

thanks
Quoting KanKunKid:


It's still a little early for me (CST) but not by much. The little town here on the beach (Puerto Moreles, just 30 KM south of Cancun) was Jimmy Buffet's inspiration for the song "Marguaritaville".
There are other things to do here such as snorkeling and fishing. Marguaritaville wasn't a fishing song. Tequila and mix is available at the 7-11 on the corner and it's cheap (Jose Cuervo Especial 6 bucks 500ml) and you can have beer delivered with your pizza. It is a "moisture rich" (alcohol) environment. So, it was no coincidence that I was staring at the open top of a blender full of marguarita(s).

And yes, there is a woman to blame.

There always is.
Interesting note about Jimmy Buffett. I have probably half a dozen of his cd's (from the 1970's), & still didn't know the nugget about the origin of the Margarita song. Good stuff.

And yes, there's ALWAYS a woman to blame...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hmmm...Have you tried emailing Jeff himself?


lol.. No never thought of it! thanks ; )
Igor sucked in some dry air there....keeping it away from his core, though.
4152. bassis
"And yes, there's ALWAYS a woman to blame..."

You better be careful, there's a woman following Igor
92L firing up t-storm activity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Today may be the day for a TD.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Current center fix from Colorado State is near 17.55N @ 1245UTC, which is 0.15 SOUTH of the previous NHC center fix...
There ya go. Good observation.
Quoting Grothar:


SHHH! The westcaster may hear you. I do agree with Storm that it will go a little further west than predicted though, before the turn. Here is a confusing little map, that shows just that.


Stadium effect - check.
Beautiful storm - check.
large eye in comparison to the storm - check?
Quoting portcharlotte:
It seems like we are in a pattern etched in stone...The maps looks the same they did in late July....The break between highs in the Atlantic which all started with the first re-curve and I believe that contibuted to the lingering weakness there. Also we have the riding over the north Gulf. If this continues you can have 40 storms and they will all miss which is okay but it seems like our luck shoulod run out...any comments

Realistically, we should start focusing our eyes in the Caribbean, where u live & where i live, well we both know too well that Oct. is the month! You had Wilma, & well I was no where in this world yet, but I had 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, Wilma, 1921... Wilma, 1921.
4157. luigi18
Quoting bassis:
And yes, there's ALWAYS a woman to blame...

You better be careful, there's a woman following Igor

like Earl and Fiona
i said it many times before and i will say it again. the trough is too weak for the deepening hurricane Igor. the upper and mid level steering keeps Igor on a west track and the anticipated wnw/nw turn will take longer than the models have forecasted. the northern leewards and PR and the virgin islands should monitorIgor very closely. when the hurricane passes 50W then we we will know how serious the threat of Igor will be
Quoting largeeyes:
Igor sucked in some dry air there....keeping it away from his core, though.
yeah i notices that he suck in a lil bit of dry
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



Actually we are not tied with 2007 we have surpassed 2007

2007:71.7
2010:72.285


Actually--I love it when people say that--for purposes of comparison, ACE is rounded to the nearest whole number. 71.7 = 72; 72.285 = 72.
4161. luigi18
Quoting stoormfury:
i said it many times before and i will say it again. the trough is too weak for the deepening hurricane Igor. the upper and mid level steering keeps Igor on a west track and the anticipated wnw/nw turn will take longer than the models have forecasted. the northern leewards and PR and the virgin islands should monitorIgor very closely. when the hurricane passes 50W then we we will know how serious the threat of Igor will be


auhch! we are here
Troughcasting, and keeping my fingers crossed...
Quoting KanKunKid:


What was the temps in the Caribbean in 95 I wonder? Apples to Apples.


Temps in the Caribbean were at record levels (until this year).
Not to mention women on the blog. :)

REALLY enjoying the idea we are so powerful that we affect your behavior enough to blame us for it, LOL.
Quoting dracko19:
The big question on everyone's mind is where is IGOR going to end up? Let's look at the models this morning and see what's happening.

The NOGAPS model, which predicted some strong ridging over the NE USA coast has relented a bit this morning and is now predicting a VERY strong ridge over the Central Atlantic and a weaker ridge over the Great Lakes. There is a weakness in between the ridges and IGOR "Shoots the gap". This is really bad news if you like Bermuda to look like a habital island.



The ECMWF shows that same strong ridge in the Central ATL, but it extends it all the way to the Great Lakes ridge and essentially BLOCKS IGOR from going North. This would be bad news if you own Beachfront Property along the central East Coast.



Then there's the GFS. The GFS says YES to that strong ridge in the central ATL. It says the Great Lakes Ridge will be a bit further west and it says there isn't much in between, so IGOR shoots right up north. Bermuda gets a taste of IGOR, but will survive.



Now we get into the "who do you believe" category. Even the NHC forecasters hedge their bets here, talking about "model consensus" and even throwing it back at us to make our own guesses. Check it out! This is from the 5am AST update from the NHC discussion on IGOR:

...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH FLATTENING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE RIDGING NORTH OF IGOR...RESULTING IN A TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT FROM THE LAST CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN
THAT DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

So, they aren't sure which model to believe either..

The GFS has a historical cold bias for fronts/troughs. They tend to overdo them and their effects. However, the GFS is the only model that properly initializes IGOR's power at the onset. Still, it comes down to those ridges over the Great Lakes and Central ATL. That is the key to IGOR's eventually destination. I doubt anyone here can conclusively tell us as even the models are in disagreement. Perhaps we can get some historical data on flattening troughs and ridging off the NE USA coast by other posters?

My bet is (and this is just a guess....I'm only an amature forecaster....don't hate me) is we are going to have a weakness strong enough to spare the USA east coast. Bermuda on the other hand is still very much in trouble. If I lived on Bermuda, I might want to take that 2 week long vacation to Chicago I've been saving up for.


Excellent analysis. Thanks!
FWIW, 92L now has its lowest pressure (1006 mb), and winds are back to where they were before dropping a bit yesterday (25 knots). Is possible-Karl making a move?

Looking at the satellite I'd say yes. If things continue this way, I'm guessing we'll see a renumber to TD13 this afternoon/evening.
bermuda rarely takes a direct hit from major hurricanes
Quoting stoormfury:
i said it many times before and i will say it again. the trough is too weak for the deepening hurricane Igor. the upper and mid level steering keeps Igor on a west track and the anticipated wnw/nw turn will take longer than the models have forecasted. the northern leewards and PR and the virgin islands should monitorIgor very closely. when the hurricane passes 50W then we we will know how serious the threat of Igor will be
Agreed
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.
4171. Tango01
Quoting Cotillion:


Igor has no advisories posted.

---

Yeah, unreasonable would be a better word, KanKunKid. Also agree with the November observation.

---



It happens a fair amount.

2007 is a good example of that. 15 storms, but below average in ACE.

2005 eclipsed 1950 by 5 in ACE... despite having 14 more storms (15, but one was ST, therefore not counting) and 5 more hurricanes.

A big Cape Verde season tends to mean a big ACE season.


Comparisons between 1950 and 2005 may not be completely fair because in 1950 many of the sensing technologies used nowadays had not been invented, yet. So some storms may not had been detected in 1950.
Quoting jeffs713:

Stadium effect - check.
Beautiful storm - check.
large eye in comparison to the storm - check?

weaking flag off-check.
annular hurricane-not sure
fish-no way jose, besides Cape Verde already took the brunt for us and Bermuda yet to come.
re-curvature-I'm pretty confident in that "hint" "hint" at some point.
4173. Tango01
Quoting Cotillion:


Igor has no advisories posted.

---

Yeah, unreasonable would be a better word, KanKunKid. Also agree with the November observation.

---



It happens a fair amount.

2007 is a good example of that. 15 storms, but below average in ACE.

2005 eclipsed 1950 by 5 in ACE... despite having 14 more storms (15, but one was ST, therefore not counting) and 5 more hurricanes.

A big Cape Verde season tends to mean a big ACE season.


Comparisons between 1950 and 2005 may not be completely fair because in 1950 many of the sensing technologies used nowadays had not been invented, yet. So some storms may not had been detected in 1950.
Quoting bassis:
"And yes, there's ALWAYS a woman to blame..."

You better be careful, there's a woman following Igor


That's because the women think he is hot. Check the posts from women. One of them said he was beautiful this morning.

I think Julia will grow up to be atypical and not break any hearts. This is the year for manly warrior hurricanes. Hermine just cried and cried and cried all the way to Michigan.
Quoting calder:
Beautiful storm, here's hoping that he doesn't hit anything. By the way, seems to be some confusion - Igor isn't and never was annular.


Definition of Annular – 1. the shape your head takes looking at two wobbles during a hurricane, thereby saying for a fact that it has changed course. 2. the angle your head is at when you are trying to classify the shape of a hurricane.

Cheers!
IGOR don't start his west/northwestard moving at 12z
It continues westward.
4177. luigi18
the TWC just said thet Igor is Turning north,People in the Leeward island are save!

really i dont trust them remenber Earl?
4178. Tango01
I'm sorry for the double-post. Bad Internet connection today.
Quoting CoopsWife:
Not to mention women on the blog. :)

REALLY enjoying the idea we are so powerful that we affect your behavior enough to blame us for it, LOL.


Like you didn't know.


Igor at 17.7 Notice the location of south eyewall and north eyewall



5 hrs later South eyewall remains exact same location North begins to drop



3 hrs later South eyewall still same latitude, while north wall comes south (contracting inward)



Two hours later, Igor at 17.6N - N eyewall dropped (contracted in) near 2 tenths of degree. S eyewall...exact same as 10+ hours earlier.


Last night amid pages and pages of comments that Igor was possibly begining to move south of west, I made a simple comment. "Igor was not moving south at all, as he was loosing his annular "look", his N eyewall was pulling in south, giving the illusion that he was jogging south". What a mistake. Some nasty comments came about and a comment or 2 about my "nautical ability" to note headings was made. My comment was simple and easy to understand - but the reaction was NASTY. So here is the "proof" I see required on here so much. Igor never moved south last night at all. As a matter of fact, the south eyewall moved along 17.5 for near 10 hours as if it were on "rails". THE PICTURES DONT LIE. The only thing that moved south was the north eyewall (contracting inward), not the storm. The storm heading remained exactly the same with a location drop (center point between the two walls) from 17.7 N to 17.6N over the near 10 hour period. The location dropped a tenth because the N wall dropped 2tenths (as seen above). Hence center point between N and south eyewall net a drop of a tenth of a degree. There was such a desire for some to see a south movement that my point was slammed bigtime. I didnt make a big deal about my comment, others did. So there (above) is the proof.......
Just reviewing my earlier post on the ship report... What is a ship doing in the middle of tropical storm force winds??????
Quoting KanKunKid:


Like you didn't know.


ROFL - at 51 my years of power are LONG behind me! Compromise works much better at this stage of the game! :)

Of course, my MOM powers are ever increasing.....
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, 92L now has its lowest pressure (1006 mb), and winds are back to where they were before dropping a bit yesterday (25 knots). Is possible-Karl making a move?

Looking at the satellite I'd say yes. If things continue this way, I'm guessing we'll see a renumber to TD13 this afternoon/evening.


Look at the Dvorak. I would say it needs more organization. Maybe by tomorrow TD.
Today's the big day..Igor is suppose to take the weakness & end up near or over Bermuda.. We'll see, still a little left of models & offical. Overall the models have shown improvement over the last 24hrs with Igor. CMC still has a commanding lead with 48nm error in the last 24hrs AVNO follows with 53, the rest follow with 70nm error or more for the last 24hrs..


Little more south & I think we could improve the odds for Igor to be a cat 5.. Lets hope he's not attracted by warm water:)


92L~ I could see being a TD or TS by Yucatan, strengthen in the BOC & hit this years popular spot in North Mexico.
4186. help4u
Already turning north according to twc can we move on from the west casting now.
4187. tacoman
well the bottom line here is this 750mb trough is going to erode the high so both egor and julia will have a clear trip up the n atlantic..bermuda is not completely out of the woods but i would give about a 20 % chance of bermuda being affected by igor with tropical force winds..the tropics are really quiet after this...dont look for the low to develop in the caribbean to much shear and interaction with the land...
i know that systems are pulled by areas of lower pressure. in this case Igor has lower pressure than any of the troughs. then how then could weaker systems pull stronger systems. i thought it was the opposite
Quoting Halon056:
Just reviewing my earlier post on the ship report... What is a ship doing in the middle of tropical storm force winds??????


Working. And trying to stay out of the worst of it without totally disrupting their schedule and wasting available fuel supply.
Quoting CoopsWife:
Not to mention women on the blog. :)

REALLY enjoying the idea we are so powerful that we affect your behavior enough to blame us for it, LOL.


They dont like to admit it but we are always really in control
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.
FWIW, Igor's ACE is already higher than 18 of 2005's named storms, and by tomorrow alone it'll be higher than 22 of 2005's. (As I've mentioned previously, ACE for this year's Danielle is higher than all but three of 2005's storms, while Earl's is higher than all but two).

So, yes, long-track CV storms add a lot to ACE totals...though it should be noted that of the six most powerful 2005 storms--Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita and Emily--none were CV-type storms.
4193. hercj
Quoting weatherwart:


Excellent analysis. Thanks!

Very good. I enjoyed reading that. I hate models but like math it helps when you understand why the lines are going where they are going. Thank You
Quoting help4u:
Already turning north according to twc can we move on from the west casting now.


ummmm right.....
4196. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Igor
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




4197. SeaMule
as has been the case all season, the hurricane will be more west of the forecast. It will be interesting to see how Igor pans out. way to early to call it a fish spinner.

Andrew was suppose to spin out and away from the CONUS...but things changed.

plenty of time for the weather to change.

this is one of "those" storms.

name is Igor too. ya just get the feeling....ya know?
Quoting Tango01:


Comparisons between 1950 and 2005 may not be completely fair because in 1950 many of the sensing technologies used nowadays had not been invented, yet. So some storms may not had been detected in 1950.


For this purpose, it is fair. There were no storms below 0.49 ACE between 1875 and 1969, correct (yet, this seemingly happens on a semi-regular basis in the past 10 years. Off the top of my head, the last year to have all storms above 1 in ACE was 1997). However, even if these 1-3 storms were missed, the ACE won't be massively different nor will the comparison. It'd just be 12 or so storms to an ACE difference of 2 or 3.
4199. Patrap
IGOR

Rainbow

Post #4180, very nice proof!
Unless TWC has the 1345 frame already and it has a huge wobble, I don't see how Igor could have turned north...
Quoting KanKunKid:


Look at the Dvorak. I would say it needs more organization. Maybe by tomorrow TD.


I did. It may be tomorrow, but I don't think so; organization looks better, and Dvorak should fall in line later today. I'm just sayin'...
Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.


50/50 is too generous. 2 weeks out I'd plan a BBQ at that location!
Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.
Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.
Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.
Quoting RecordSeason:
4180:

Man you are hard headed.

The STORM has it's position defined by the center point of the eye.

You admit the northern eye-wall moved south and continues to do so, while you also claim the southern eyewall did not move north.

therefore, the mid-point between the eye-walls MUST have moved south.

By definition, the STORM moved south equal to the center of the eye, which in this case is 0.15 degrees and increasing.
random tidbit: insurance losses from Tropical Storm Hermine expected to approach $100 million in Texas.

4209. tacoman
the NHC has once again nailed both of these storms..congrats guys for a job well done..it should start to drop down significantly now..
Quoting barotropic:


Igor at 17.7 Notice the location of south eyewall and north eyewall



5 hrs later South eyewall remains exact same location North begins to drop



3 hrs later South eyewall still same latitude, while north wall comes south (contracting inward)



Two hours later, Igor at 17.6N - N eyewall dropped (contracted in) near 2 tenths of degree. S eyewall...exact same as 10+ hours earlier.


Last night amid pages and pages of comments that Igor was possibly begining to move south of west, I made a simple comment. "Igor was not moving south at all, as he was loosing his annular "look", his N eyewall was pulling in south, giving the illusion that he was jogging south". What a mistake. Some nasty comments came about and a comment or 2 about my "nautical ability" to note headings was made. My comment was simple and easy to understand - but the reaction was NASTY. So here is the "proof" I see required on here so much. Igor never moved south last night at all. As a matter of fact, the south eyewall moved along 17.5 for near 10 hours as if it were on "rails". THE PICTURES DONT LIE. The only thing that moved south was the north eyewall (contracting inward), not the storm. The storm heading remained exactly the same with a location drop (center point between the two walls) from 17.7 N to 17.6N over the near 10 hour period. The location dropped a tenth because the N wall dropped 2tenths (as seen above). Hence center point between N and south eyewall net a drop of a tenth of a degree. There was such a desire for some to see a south movement that my point was slammed bigtime. I didnt make a big deal about my comment, others did. So there (above) is the proof.......


HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010
THE MEAN MOTION IS 270/11...BUT IGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT VECTOR.

I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.
Quoting Kristina40:
I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.


+1
Quoting Kristina40:
I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.

+1
4214. Patrap
92L Rainbow

new blog.
4200:

Actually, the only thing it "prooves" is that neither he nor you know anything about geometry or algebra, specifically mid-point theorem...
4217. FLdewey
I'm working on an app that will use the GPS in your phone or ipod/ipad and automatically adjust the NHC cone of probability to pass directly over the user.

That way instead of accusing people of "wishcasting" we can simply say...

There's an app for that.
4218. tacoman
kristina nothing to worry about from either igor or julia they will be affected by the strong 750mb trough digging down on the east coast..imo everything is quiet beside the only 2 games in town destined to be fish storms..
ewnay logbay. el bloggo del newo.

4220. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



New Blog
Still looking for the Centre.


4223. angiest
Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.


GFS has been developing a Caribbean/Gulf system consistently. Track is not important yet, the presence of the storm is.
Quoting CoopsWife:


ROFL - at 51 my years of power are LONG behind me! Compromise works much better at this stage of the game! :)

Of course, my MOM powers are ever increasing.....


Your power is only exceeded by your modesty. Power is made perfect by control. As you get older and wiser, you just know better when to use them. After all if the use of that power produced no change....

As far as Mom power goes. THAT is some scary stuff. I am still in awe. So, how can you see through walls? That's what I want to know. Do you have "remote viewing" like on "Men who stare at goats"? (the movie, not the job at NHC)
Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.
...,14+ days,gimmie a break,should be taken with a grain of salt,not even close to reliable,what's keepn them from classifying 92l?????
4226. hercj
Quoting Skyepony:
Today's the big day..Igor is suppose to take the weakness & end up near or over Bermuda.. We'll see, still a little left of models & offical. Overall the models have shown improvement over the last 24hrs with Igor. CMC still has a commanding lead with 48nm error in the last 24hrs AVNO follows with 53, the rest follow with 70nm error or more for the last 24hrs..


Little more south & I think we could improve the odds for Igor to be a cat 5.. Lets hope he's not attracted by warm water:)


92L~ I could see being a TD or TS by Yucatan, strengthen in the BOC & hit this years popular spot in North Mexico.

Good morning Sky. Did 43 recover last night on Barbados? It looked like they were headed that way but couldn't find anything to confirm it.
Igors growing in size!!!
Igors growing in size!!!
Quoting Kristina40:
I think I speak for the majority here, it would be nice if people left their political baggage at the door. We have a Cat 4 Hurricane and several other areas of interest to watch and discuss on this TROPICAL WEATHER blog, if you really must discuss politics go to a political blog.


+ 10

I have opinions. STRONG OPINIONS. But now's not the time. Lot's of weather to discuss. Save the political nonsense until January.

I approved this message.
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, Igor's ACE is already higher than 18 of 2005's named storms, and by tomorrow alone it'll be higher than 22 of 2005's. (As I've mentioned previously, ACE for this year's Danielle is higher than all but three of 2005's storms, while Earl's is higher than all but two).

So, yes, long-track CV storms add a lot to ACE totals...though it should be noted that of the six most powerful 2005 storms--Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita and Emily--none were CV-type storms.

Emily could be considered but not as EARL and IGOR
2005 ACE was high due to the number of 28 storms but this year IGOR could have the highest ACE since Comrade IVAN 6 years ago, a record. Since IVAN the Terrible, none storms had an ACE higher than 40
4216, I got a 90 out of 100 on my geometry regents! Frankly, were are splitting hairs here. The general movement is West.
Quoting Neapolitan:


I did. It may be tomorrow, but I don't think so; organization looks better, and Dvorak should fall in line later today. I'm just sayin'...


You may be right. I'll keep an eye on it, I got a stake in this one.
Quoting help4u:
Already turning north according to twc can we move on from the west casting now.
I don't know how you can say that! According to visible satellite, it is still going due west!
vorticity increasing with 92L
Quoting RecordSeason:
4200:

Actually, the only thing it "prooves" is that neither he nor you know anything about geometry or algebra, specifically mid-point theorem...


Location and movement are two different things. If the bottom edge of a tire 20 inches in diameter is rolling on a rail (the 17.5 line) heading west towards a point and the center point of the tire is 10 inches above the rail other than diameter what difference does it make if the tire shrinks to 10 inches and the center point is now 5 inches above the rail "but" continues rolling on the same rail (the 17.5line) heading west towards the same point.............are both tires not going to end up in the same spot?
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Quoting dracko19:
For those of you who think the GULF is safe from storms this year, take a look at the GFS map for Sep 28.



It shows a large and powerful Hurricane building right outside Texas. Now, keep in mind, this is 2 weeks off and they chances of it being right are about 50/50 at best. Still, I wouldn't relax if I lived on the Gulf. ALWAYS pay attention to what is happening with the weather if you live down there this time of year.
Lets hope 2 weeks out is pushing the envelope on model reliability.....
4239. Jax82
Monday!
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010
THE MEAN MOTION IS 270/11...BUT IGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT VECTOR.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


+1
I "approve" that message! LOL
It's good to know that neither Igor, 92L, or T.S. Julis are headed for Florida. We were scared about Igor but seems he is going North according to the NHC.
NEW BLOG
Quoting help4u:
Already turning north according to twc can we move on from the west casting now.

And you use The Weather Channel as a source? lol.
The CMC has Igor slide swiping the Northern Leeward Islands. They may receive a few outer bands. Earl, at Igor's current distance from the islands, was forecast to pass far north of the islands. It is true, however, that Igor's current position is far more north than was Earl, but still, the northern leeward islands may have to watch the system. The NHC is superb at forecasting in general, but it doesn't have a pristine record during times of recurvatures.
Quoting originalLT:
Post #4180, very nice proof!


Thanks, but I got slammed pretty hard about it...some I guess dont get the idea.