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92L near tropical depression status; Ernesto drenching Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2012

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 92L) has become well-organized, with satellite loops showing that a well-defined surface circulation formed around 9 am EDT. So far, 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity is limited, due to a large amount of dry air to the west and north that can be seen on water vapor satellite loops. However, heavy thunderstorms have recently increased near the new circulation center, and if current trends continue, 92L will likely be named Tropical Depression Seven later today. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and the SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light until Saturday morning, when the storm will encounter higher shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Of the six major computer models used operationally by NHC, only the NOGAPS model develops 92L, and not until Tuesday. The NOGAPS model did the best job of forecasting the genesis of Ernesto, though. There are some major timing differences between the models on how fast 92L will move. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, the ECMWF model has this happening on Sunday, and the NOGAPS model brings 92L though the northern Lesser Antilles on Monday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 70% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. Residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of another Ernesto-like situation, with tropical storm conditions affecting the islands Saturday through Monday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto is performing a tightrope act along the extreme southern edge of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, as the storm heads westwards towards its eventual doom over the mountains of Mexico. Ernesto made landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, weakened to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds while passing over the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, but had enough time over water this morning to regenerate to a 70 mph tropical storm. Ernesto has a few more hours today when its center will be over water, and the storm's heavy rains of up to ten inches will cause flash flooding in Mexico's Veracruz state. So far, damage from Ernesto has been modest, with no deaths or injuries reported.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 1 pm EDT August 8, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post this afternoon to talk about July 2012--the warmest month in U.S. history.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Coastalgramps:
Ex flo looks better than 92L


No way, 92L has a COC he only needs convection
Quoting mikatnight:


Ex-Flo looks like she is smiling and winking at the same time, and 92L/07 looks like a giant bug!!
1003. ncstorm
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




LOL!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was real the first time lol.


Aye, but it never appeared on the Navy site.

When in doubt, always check the NRL site.
So just to clarify, we do actually have TD 7 now as it is now on the Navy site.
well I saw someone post it earler the offical track I can not find it at the moment

AUG is on a roll for name storms


if we get the G storm that would be 3 name storms for AUG and we still have a lot of AUG too go and SEP
Flo has very little happening at the surface.

Quoting hydrus:
What does that mean to put goat mouth on something?


bad mojo !
1010. SLU
It's not official until the public advisory is issued. Until then, the NHC could easily change their minds .... again.
Quoting kmanislander:


bad mojo !
What is mojo>
In case you missed it yesterday, here is again.

Afternoon everyone, Dr M is on TWC again and 92L should be a TD today/tonight.
for track I'm going to go with the 18Z SHIPS
for track and intensity
i wounder if we will get too W this year the way things are going
Quoting 954FtLCane:


model plots to an invest do not denote an official track. Gotta laugh at the cayman casting....sorry just do.


Let's hope he doesn't hook one LOL
and a short one.

Quoting wxchaser97:
Afternoon everyone, Dr M is on TWC again and 92L should be a TD today/tonight.


Excellent forecasting. Just upgraded :-)
1019. LargoFl
Quoting kmanislander:


Excellent forecasting. Just upgraded :-)

After this morning with the renumber back and forth I didn't know whats right. It does look depression worthy.
Quoting Tazmanian:
AUG is on a roll for name storms


if we get the G storm that would be 3 name storms for AUG and we still have a lot of AUG too go and SEP
With the quiet July we have August and September will likely be active don`t know about Octuber though.
Quoting tatoprweather:
What is mojo>


Bad mojo means bad luck
Quoting MississippiWx:
Flo has very little happening at the surface.


More than you think..

Quoting Drakoen:


If it's not i'm going to need a drink...extra strong on the rocks.


Its 5 o'clock somewhere...
1026. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
What does that mean to put goat mouth on something?


Old West Indian saying, equivalent to saying something that might bring bad luck on someone or somewhere.
i am very dissapointed that the weather channel showed that they predict the Gulf will be safe for the peak of the season and tracks w be like ernestos into mexico. weather patterns change so you cant gurantee nothing. very disappointed
Quoting kmanislander:


Bad mojo means bad luck
Thougth was a bad word :). Learning something new each and every day.
Quoting LargoFl:


Rain chances keep going up (started out at 30% this morning, then 50, now 70%)...
1031. LargoFl
Kman, know clue but would guess a goat gets a certain look on it's puss just before it's going to run you over.
1033. kwgirl
Quoting kmanislander:


Old West Indian saying, equivalent to saying something that might bring bad luck on someone or somewhere.
Here in the Keys we just say "putting the mouth" on someone, means to wish it on them. I think you said goat mouth because of his name having kid in it? Or do you always say goat mouth?
Quoting kmanislander:


Let's hope he doesn't hook one LOL
'

you are def right, no one needs that headache!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Xzibit works at ATCF...



LOL. That's awesome.
1029 i guess you weren't a doors fan.
hey guys I'm looking for a college that majors in Meteorology. Do ya'll know of any really good ones to go to??
Flo made a nice convection display earlier today but the upper level shear is keeping her down; she peaked earlier. From the last eight hours of satellite though Flo looks like she's coming back at some point. Is the low weakening with Flo still, or have pressures started to drop again? MississippiWx made the good point of there is just not much happening with Flo at the surface. Pretty cool seeing Masters get face time on TWC. He's arrived now and he did it on his terms. Pretty cool.
Quoting kwgirl:
Here in the Keys we just say "putting the mouth" on someone, means to wish it on them. I think you said goat mouth because of his name having kid in it? Or do you always say goat mouth?


That's actually funny, never thought of the kid angle LOL.

No, goat mouth is the actual saying regardless of your name !
Quoting gordydunnot:
Kman, know clue but would guess a goat gets a certain look on it's puss just before it's going to run you over.

LOLx100000000000000
thats true
Looking at steering maps, TD7 should have very similar steering to Ernesto through 96 hours at least. This should put it into the Central Caribbean, perhaps a little farther north than Ernesto due to initial increased longitude and the TUTT creating a slight weakness for it to gain some latitude before entering the Caribbean.

It should again be emphasized that trade winds look to accelerate in the Central Caribbean. If TD7 is not a fairly strong TS by the time it enters the Caribbean, it's de ja vu.
Go Doctor M not everybody has to be a sell out.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Kman, know clue but would guess a goat gets a certain look on it's puss just before it's going to run you over.


Oh man, I shouldn't have said that :-)

See other explanations posted.
Quoting hericane96:
hey guys I'm looking for a college that majors in Meteorology. Do ya'll know of any really good ones to go to??


i dont know, never knew colleges went to college
Quoting hericane96:
hey guys I'm looking for a college that majors in Meteorology. Do ya'll know of any really good ones to go to??



Try here Link
Quoting hericane96:
hey guys I'm looking for a college that majors in Meteorology. Do ya'll know of any really good ones to go to??


I graduated from Millersville University in Pennsylvania. Great school if you like the smaller college experience. I was accepted to Penn State, but Millersville was a much better fit and a LOT cheaper. They have a full meteorology program.
The Wondermap for 92L looks too far south and a bit slow to develop.
Is it based on an older model run position?
If Flo strengthens (not betting on it) that opens an escape route for TD 7 into the open ocean
guys whats kill off the off topic photos this is not the place for them in the main blog if you want too be posting off topic photos plzs take them too your own blog has wounder blog admin says this is a weather olny blog


all so wounder blog admin has said this many of times has well in fac if you guys like i can go back too one of the oder blogs and find one of them post



most of us come on here too look for weather info not too be finding this blog filled with off topic photos
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i dont know, never knew colleges went to college

sorry type
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Try here Link

thanks.
1053. Patrap
TD 7 RGB Loop

Quoting MississippiWx:
Looking at steering maps, TD7 should have very similar steering to Ernesto through 96 hours at least. This should put it into the Central Caribbean, perhaps a little farther north than Ernesto due to initial increased longitude and the TUTT creating a slight weakness for it to gain some latitude before entering the Caribbean.

It should again be emphasized that trade winds look to accelerate in the Central Caribbean. If TD7 is not a fairly strong TS by the time it enters the Caribbean, it's de ja vu.

yep

Quoting kmanislander:


Oh man, I shouldn't have said that :-)

See other explanations posted.

but yeah I get what you mean
Quoting floridaboy14:
i am very dissapointed that the weather channel showed that they predict the Gulf will be safe for the peak of the season and tracks w be like ernestos into mexico. weather patterns change so you cant gurantee nothing. very disappointed


I see their reasoning. The Central Plains high is very strong this year and so is the A/B high.

So, like with Ernesto, forecast track depends on timing, strength of troughs coming down, and strength of the system.

In order for a system to hit the Gulf Coast, the system would have to be strong enough to feel any weakness between the two ridges that may be formed by a trough. In this case, most likely, the Northern gulf coast would be affected not TX.
Considering the amount of dry air west and north of TD7, system looks very decent (at least on visible imagery...but look to the moisture for the wave coming behind.
guys please lets stop posting off topic postings about off topic postings. ;-)
I don't think the NHC will forecast much strengthening for TD 7... Maybe 60mph tops... Is that reasonable?
Quoting Chucktown:


I graduated from Millersville University in Pennsylvania. Great school if you like the smaller college experience. I was accepted to Penn State, but Millersville was a much better fit and a LOT cheaper. They have a full meteorology program.


I'm applying to both places this fall.. I'm jealous of you right now! I'm also applying to Miami and U-Oklahoma.
1060. Patrap
Look carefully below mid Cuba

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
1062. Michfan
Florida State also has a good meteo program. One of the best in the country.
1063. kwgirl
Quoting Patrap:
Look carefully below mid Cuba

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Thanks Patrap, I noticed that earlier. Going to be a wet weekend in S. Fl. Hope that is all!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think the NHC will forecast much strengthening for 92L... Maybe 60mph tops... Is that reasonable?


That would be TD7 to you.



Quoting Tazmanian:
guys whats kill off the off topic photos this is not the place for them in the main blog if you want too be posting off topic photos plzs take them too your own blog has wounder blog admin says this is a weather olny blog


all so wounder blog admin has said this many of times has well in fac if you guys like i can go back too one of the oder blogs and find one of them post



most of us come on here too look for weather info not too be finding this blog filled with off topic photos
Quoting 954FtLCane:
guys please lets stop posting off topic postings about off topic postings. ;-)


The Progressive "Flo" girl wasn't off topic was it?
Not that I care, I just wanted to rattle your cage...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think the NHC will forecast much strengthening for 92L... Maybe 60mph tops... Is that reasonable?

Yes.
PSU, FSU, Colorado State are the Big 3.
Quoting Patrap:
Look carefully below mid Cuba

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

***lalalalala, can't see you, lalalalala***

somethin' is a spinnin
Been busy this PM; has 92L been designated TD7?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That would be TD7 to you.


Fixed it... I'm still confused from all the renumbers/un renumbers.
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Im sure you need to get everything handed to you in life. Take some initiative.

Link


He was only asking for advice, give him slack.

Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, Oklahoma are good to name a few.
1072. Michfan
Quoting Patrap:
Look carefully below mid Cuba

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop


There seems to be some rotation down there but vorticity doesn't show anything.

1073. dabirds
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Anyone else a Hokies fan?

Bud Foster is from my hometown, was just back for our homecoming / his class reunion. Went out to Blacksburg for BC game last fall & stayed in guest house! Lots of maroon n orange in this little C IL town.
Ernesto looks very healthy right now, I wonder if he's a hurricane again after all?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
PSU, FSU, Colorado State are the Big 3.


what about OU?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Been busy this PM; has 92L been designated TD7?



YES
1077. Patrap
One Red Hash for the trough below Cuba,



Quoting Tazmanian:
guys whats kill off the off topic photos this is not the place for them in the main blog if you want too be posting off topic photos plzs take them too your own blog has wounder blog admin says this is a weather olny blog


all so wounder blog admin has said this many of times has well in fac if you guys like i can go back too one of the oder blogs and find one of them post



most of us come on here too look for weather info not too be finding this blog filled with off topic photos


I didn't see any off topic photos.
Quoting mikatnight:


The Progressive "Flo" girl wasn't off topic was it?
Not that I care, I just wanted to rattle your cage...

LOL.....she was def on topic.
1080. Michfan


All mid level 500mb vorticity in that area Pap. Interesting.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Looking at steering maps, TD7 should have very similar steering to Ernesto through 96 hours at least. This should put it into the Central Caribbean, perhaps a little farther north than Ernesto due to initial increased longitude and the TUTT creating a slight weakness for it to gain some latitude before entering the Caribbean.

It should again be emphasized that trade winds look to accelerate in the Central Caribbean. If TD7 is not a fairly strong TS by the time it enters the Caribbean, it's de ja vu.
Exactly.
1082. Patrap
Wv Loop TD 7



Quoting caneswatch:


He was only asking for advice, give him slack.



Yeah, looks like gramps is in a bad mood
1084. LargoFl
.....................georgiastromz..you getting the rains today
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what about OU?


That is also a choice, but its geared more towards severe weather. Good Afternoon everyone by the way.
1086. Patrap
Quoting Michfan:


All mid level 500mb vorticity in that area Pap. Interesting.


Indeed, so we shall watch it closely.

Gramps lol comment 1046 that rang true of what my Grandfathers would have said to me if they were still around had I ever asked that question. Tough as nails Depression survivors who served in WWII. So many amazing stories. Everything is handed to you on a platter now with technology. Intellectualism and the test scores (IQ) of the US has plummeted in the last 25 years. Technology and loss of base moral values through social mediums of internet, t.v., and music is the reason behind horrible parenting and kids growing up way too fast and learning all the wrong things. Technology rules the day and is considered great, but the glaring truth is an ugly sight truly to see; just look at US today.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what about OU?


Not quite on that level, I mean 1/3 of all meteorologist have degrees from Penn State.
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


That is also a choice, but its geared more towards severe weather. Good Afternoon everyone by the way.


he said meteorology
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Im sure you need to get everything handed to you in life. Take some initiative.

Link

enuff! poof!
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed, so we shall watch it closely.



That could have been that AOI that the CMC had picked up yesterday forming in the GOM.
Quoting Patrap:
Look carefully below mid Cuba

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Thats the circulation the unscheduled HH mission sent dropsponds 2 days ago.
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 9
Location: 13.7°N 43.8°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
000
WTNT22 KNHC 092034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 43.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 43.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
1095. LargoFl
....................................OMG he is getting blasted again..was the same place Last night,hope he is scanning the blog
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


he said meteorology


Ok, but you are still looking as CSU, PSU, and FSU as the big 3. FSU is my personal favorite.
Let's play Where's Waldo? Instead of Waldo, find the swan. :-)

yeeeee!!!!!!! TD 7 is here!!!!!
1101. Patrap
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 9
Location: 13.7°N 43.8°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
So, It's official. We actually have 07L.
Quoting mcluvincane:



Yeah, looks like gramps is in a bad mood


Im having a tough time with shingles this week. I may be a little grumpy
Ernesto II so far with TD7; booking along at 20 mph........It needs to slow down....... :)
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................georgiastromz..you getting the rains today



yah im wet...was outside
Ouch 17 kts. Could a nekkid swirl be coming soon?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


*If* that where to verify, it's going to have the same exact problems Ernesto had with the trade winds in the Caribbean.
NHC forecast goes with what I posted a few minutes ago. Fairly straight forward path for a while. They look a little unsure about intensity as well.

Quoting Ameister12:
So, It's official. We actually have 07L.


Is it officially official?
Similar track to Ernesto.
Quoting caneswatch:


He was only asking for advice, give him slack.

Miami, Michigan, Mississippi State, Oklahoma are good to name a few.
thanks everybody just wanted to see what ya'll thought would be the best ones to go to.
1114. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



yah im wet...was outside
ok good i know you needed the rain
interesting....TD7 stays at TS strength all the way into the Caribbean
AS I SAID offical track takes it into the Caribbean towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think the NHC will forecast much strengthening for TD 7... Maybe 60mph tops... Is that reasonable?


think long term...

like 10 days from now
Quoting CybrTeddy:


*If* that where to verify, it's going to have the same exact problems Ernesto had with the trade winds in the Caribbean.
Unless its circulation is more well-defined by the time it enters the eastern Caribbean.

I doubt it though.
1119. Drakoen
Another one of these small circulation systems that is probably not going to be well resolved by the models. The TUTT is forecast to drop southward with the axis extending into the Caribbean. If TD7 gets too far north the system could be disrupted entirely.
1120. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD7

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts

Forecast track for TD 7 is deja vu.

South of Jamaica and maintains TS status.
NHC forecast has 07L becoming a strong TS in 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unless it's circulation is more well-defined by the time it enters the eastern Caribbean.

I doubt it though.


Its circulation is already more well-defined than Ernesto's before it entered the Caribbean. We'll just have to see how it does the next few days.
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Im having a tough time with shingles this week. I may be a little grumpy


Call a roofer!
The Caribbean is closed right now, at least the western Caribbean:

1126. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FLZ033-092100-
ST. JOHNS-
432 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO CRESCENT BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE...DUPONT
CENTER...VILANO BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...CRESCENT BEACH...BUTLER BEACH AND ANASTASIA THROUGH 500 PM
EDT. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2965 8135 2983 8145 3005 8146 3010 8133
2994 8129 2988 8126 2979 8125 2970 8121
2968 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 252DEG 14KT 3004 8135 2973 8126

$$

SHASHY
1127. Patrap
..this is the first TRACK issued on TD-7, as anyone saying there was one before, is well, wrong.

Quoting hurricanehanna:
interesting....TD7 stays at TS strength all the way into the Caribbean


NHC recognizes the same issue that Ernesto had, fast trade winds in the Caribbean that will impede development.. again. Though as we saw if conditions are right in the western Caribbean real quick strengthening could happen. I think though there is an equally as likely chance that TD7 could very well open up into a wave, time will tell.
Quoting Ameister12:
NHC forecast has 07L becoming a strong TS in 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Here goes the NHC strengthening a system in the Eastern and Central Caribbean again. If it's as weak as they say before it enters, good luck with that intensity forecast verifying.
Cue warp speed for the blog.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
AS I SAID offical track takes it into the Caribbean towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands


Youre gonna get a bruise on your back.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Caribbean is closed right now, at least the western Caribbean:



That is due to Ernesto's outflow and anticyclone. It won't be a problem by the time TD7 reaches that longitude.
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Im having a tough time with shingles this week. I may be a little grumpy



Ouch!!!! Very, very painful
1134. LargoFl
Quoting Drakoen:
Another one of these small circulation systems that is probably not going to be well resolved by the models. The TUTT is forecast to drop southward with the axis extending into the Caribbean. If TD7 gets too far north the system could be disrupted entirely.


I think that is a very real possibility.
I think TD 7 will gain a little more latitude than Ernesto because of the strength of the trough eroding the A/B ridge. Although, the NHC doesn't seem to think the same. They have a more southern track.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Caribbean is closed right now, at least the western Caribbean:



Yes, Hurricanes often cause high wind shear in the backside, aka outflow from Ernesto.

GFS shear forecast 24 hours shows favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean all the way through 138 hours.
1137. WxLogic
If it's able to attain and maintain TS status prior to getting to the Windward/Leeward Islands then it could have a chance at surviving the Carib until it gets into the W Carib.
I told you and you guys did not believe here it is and I'm right
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I told you and you guys did not believe here it is and I'm right


If you say every single storm is going to the caymans eventually you are gonna be right.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
AS I SAID offical track takes it into the Caribbean towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Apparently you want one badly. If you're lucky it'll ramp up to a major and go right over your head.
1142. Patrap
NHC track is a copy of the GFS's. Caribbean wishcasters will be happy
i dont like the track. way too far south
Quoting CybrTeddy:


NHC recognizes the same issue that Ernesto had, fast trade winds in the Caribbean that will impede development.. again. Though as we saw if conditions are right in the western Caribbean real quick strengthening could happen. I think though there is an equally as likely chance that TD7 could very well open up into a wave, time will tell.

The NHC believes dry air weakened the storm, not trade winds.
Ernesto part 2

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I told you and you guys did not believe here it is and I'm right


Uh, you weren't the only one saying it would go into the Caribbean.
Quoting Patrap:
Wv Loop TD 7




Nice moist environment ALL around










half of the storm
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
AS I SAID offical track takes it into the Caribbean towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands


You want a storm to hit you lol. I'm like you
Link

For others that didn't see the new NHC content, like myself until 2 mins ago, new interactive....
1151. LargoFl
..................................OK how come the NOAA thinks it WILL be making a hard right hand turn once the storm gets past the first few islands?..and in just 72 hours
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I told you and you guys did not believe here it is and I'm right
that could happen if the system is at that strength of stronger it may well weaken and move more south.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NHC believes dry air weakened the storm, not trade winds.


I still call their bluff on that statement.
Quoting Chucktown:


I graduated from Millersville University in Pennsylvania. Great school if you like the smaller college experience. I was accepted to Penn State, but Millersville was a much better fit and a LOT cheaper. They have a full meteorology program.

I'm going into my senior this year and i'm looking for a good met school. I have narrowed it down to Millersville and NC State. I like Millersville better, but NC State is in state which makes it a lot cheaper. What else do you have to say about Millersville?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If you say every single storm is going to the caymans eventually you are gonna be right.

well I'm not and I am just saying that these particular system have a history of coming to the Cayman Islands its just the way it is of us being located in this area

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Apparently you want one badly. If you're lucky it'll ramp up to a major and go right over your head.

I did not want one I just knew it would come

maybe major but not over my head but just to the S
Quoting floridaboy14:
i dont like the track. way too far south


That is a salute to the GFS! It's performance has been pretty good this year. So will the ridge remain strong or will a trough crack the ridge allowing for a NW movement down the road? We'll see.
1157. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I told you and you guys did not believe here it is and I'm right


Easy, that's only the first cone.
Geez, this is going to be another boring storm to track.. hope is dissipates to save us the trouble. Need a hurricane to track, not a invest, tropical storm.
Quoting LargoFl:
ok good i know you needed the rain


ha not really...it just means i dont have to water today...lol
Looks like TD 7 is composed of two little blobs with some drier air in between them... Strengthening will certainly be a gradual process with this one.

TD 7 poised to be another aggravating one to monitor.

Enrnie's lil Brother ?
Pretty in-depth discussion by Pasch...not.
3-5 more hurricanes, 2 to 3 of those predicted to be major hurricanes according to the NOAA.
Ernesto was good practice for this one. Just remember folks;

a) the models will not have a good handle on this one intensity wise and it could change from day to day once it gets into the Caribbean;

b) the general direction is probably in the ball park but waaaaaay to early to start talking about shooting the gap through the Yucatan Channel; I made the same mistake when some of the early track forecasts had Ernesto going into the Gulf and it, thankfully, did not pan out.

c) waaaaay to early to assume that this will be a Central American year with all the storms staying South like Dean and a few others past years. Even if this pattern persists in the short term, El Nino is going to throw in several deep trofs weakening the ridging to the North at certain intervals.

d) Keep your eyes on the GFS for this one too;
1165. dabirds
Quoting gordydunnot:
1029 i guess you weren't a doors fan.
Or a Muddy/blues fan.
1166. MTWX
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
PSU, FSU, Colorado State are the Big 3.


For tropical yes... For more terrestrial weather I would probably have to go with the University of Kansas, Oklahoma, or Mississippi State.
Hmmm....well NHC thinks that dry air ruined Ernesto in the Caribbean NOT trade winds.

Not as much dry air in the Caribbean right now so we shall see if they were right...lol.

Also, TD 7 has a much better core than Ernesto did at this point.

Should be interesting to watch.
Cone will shift north :)
Another flare up of convection
1170. ncstorm
not another ernesto? wake me up when it hits Mexico..again..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Caribbean is closed right now, at least the western Caribbean:


Most of this shear is the outflow of Ernesto...
Wait for Ernesto to clear out of the way of the BOC and western caribbean, and we will have a much better idea of what might happen with TD 7.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Geez, this is going to be another boring storm to track.. hope is dissipates to save us the trouble. Need a hurricane to track, not a invest, tropical storm.

If it makes it to the West Caribbean, It will be a hurricane.
07L is moving too fast that's really boring to get only these sick meager storms
1174. LargoFl
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


That is a salute to the GFS! It's performance has been pretty good this year. So will the ridge remain strong or will a trough crack the ridge allowing for a NW movement down the road? We'll see.


Besides the trof that is dipping down right now, when or IF is the next one forecasted to do the same??
Hello Gordon:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it makes it to the West Caribbean, It will be a hurricane.

If this ends up happening could it be pulled north into the Gulf kind of like Ernesto would've been if it had strengthened sooner?
I can all ready tell, Gordon is going to be another pain-in-the-butt storm to watch.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Pretty in-depth discussion by Pasch...not.
I really didn't get most of it tbh.
1180. LargoFl
T. PETERSBURG --
The seventh tropical depression of the season has formed far out in the Atlantic.
The system is located midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. It is no threat to Florida or any land mass at this time.
If the system continues to organize, it could become Tropical Storm Gordon this weekend.

This area will continue a westward movement for several days. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. Long-range models are split, with some moving this low into the Caribbean and others having it make a northerly turn in the Atlantic.
1181. junie1
Quoting CaribBoy:
07L is moving too fast that's really boring to get only these sick meager storms


lol were in the islands do you live at caribboy im in the Virgin islands
I want a trough to turn TD7 NW at 55w.
say what you want about the track the GFS has been great this year which is why the NHC is going with them
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Hmmm....well NHC thinks that dry air ruined Ernesto in the Caribbean NOT trade winds.

Not as much dry air in the Caribbean right now so we shall see if they were right...lol.

Also, TD 7 has a much better core than Ernesto did at this point.

Should be interesting to watch.
They were of course right that it was dry air. It gets into every storm that tries to traverse the Caribbean, unless it's Cat3+ already with a dense CDO. Thus the old John Hope rule.
Quoting Derlong54:
Hello Gordon:


Is it a TS yet?
Quoting Derlong54:
Hello Gordon:

Not Gordon yet, its TD7. I know what you mean but you never know what could happen.


why is this map not updated in the site... the pic by itself is...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Its circulation is already more well-defined than Ernesto's before it entered the Caribbean. We'll just have to see how it does the next few days.


TD7 was named further east than Ernesto.
TD7 48.3 W
Ernesto 49 W
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If this ends up happening could it be pulled north into the Gulf kind of like Ernesto would've been if it had strengthened sooner?

Depends on if there is a trough at that time.

Timing.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Not Gordon yet, its TD7. I know what you mean but you never know what could happen.


Thanks
Quoting junie1:


lol were in the islands do you live at caribboy im in the Virgin islands
He lives in st.maartin
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Ernesto was good practice for this one. Just remember folks;

a) the models will not have a good handle on this one intensity wise and it could change from day to day once it gets into the Caribbean;

b) the general direction is probably in the ball park but waaaaaay to early to start talking about shooting the gap through the Yucatan Channel; I made the same mistake when some of the early track forecasts had Ernesto going into the Gulf and it, thankfully, did not pan out.

c) waaaaay to early to assume that this will be a Central American year with all the storms staying South like Dean and a few others past years. Even if this pattern persists in the short term, El Nino is going to throw in several deep trofs weakening the ridging to the North at certain intervals.

d) Keep your eyes on the GFS for this one too;


We learned some lessons from Ernesto and we dont need to make the same mistakes. No more " OPEN WAVE!!" and at the same time someone else says, "Hurricane". That crap was confusing.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Geez, this is going to be another boring storm to track.. hope is dissipates to save us the trouble. Need a hurricane to track, not a invest, tropical storm.

It adds ACE rating to the season, gives us something to do, and makes the storm total at the end of the season higher among other things. Plus some unexperienced people like me learn in the process how to forecast the storm.
Be glad that August isnt like July.
Quoting Derlong54:
Hello Gordon:



Looks like 2 competing vortices there
Quoting CaribBoy:
I want a trough to turn TD7 NW at 55w.


Lol, i wish we could all get what we want but momma nature says i do what i want.
1195. WxLogic
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Is it a TS yet?


Not yet... it just got classified as a TD.
Quoting ncstorm:
not another ernesto? wake me up when it hits Mexico..again..

Thats going to be a long sleep and there is an interesting wave coming off Africa. Are you sure you want to sleep through it, ok whatever.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Apparently you want one badly. If you're lucky it'll ramp up to a major and go right over your head.


Hes the JFV of the Caymans lol
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why is this map not updated in the site... the pic by itself is...


Can you not mouse over it either? thought it was just me
Hi everyone,

quick questions, what is that swirl below cuba that affects that area and could affect S Fla?

Is it an ULL????/ I think Pat mentioned something a while back but I could not figure it out.
Been in meetings and trying to pop in and out as I can.

Please someone let me know....and is that "X" Flo swirling out there NE of PR and North of the Virgin Islands and looking good?

Thanks in advance!!!
Quoting junie1:


lol were in the islands do you live at caribboy im in the Virgin islands


Lol not far from you. I'm in St Maarten, N Leewards and I want rain!!! The windwards are getting all the rain since ernesto.. and I can't get they will have more with TD7. I'm jealous :)
1201. pottery
Quoting CaribBoy:
NHC track is a copy of the GFS's. Caribbean wishcasters will be happy

We downcasters are not impressed....

This could bring some real heavy rain to the Islands, with 40 mph wind.
Not good.
1202. JLPR2
Nighty night 07L...



I guess this D-max will be interesting (for real).
Ernesto still looks really good... Perhaps those models forecasting regeneration in the East Pac aren't so crazy after all...

Quoting CaribBoy:
Cone will shift north :)
Im sure it will most of the models are north any way
Its at the peak of D-Min right now for 07L and its firing new convection, good sign of health fro our new depression.
I would not base TD 7's future off the initial track itself, alot can happen in 5 days.
Really? Taking credit for the prediction that we now have a TD out of the wave everyone knew was going to likely form? Everyone could look at the likely path that the models said it could take. Wunderkid is not alone at all in wanting his WU weather street cred for predictions. I think it's silly, but I do get a good laugh out of it sometimes. And on that note, a big shout out to Rita who absolutely nailed what was going to happen with Ernesto.
Zeitgeist Shift

Did Earth rumble after the Rio+20 climate conference? Or was that the roar of a billion citizens letting go the expectation that polite dialogue and political process would restore Earth’s ecological balance?

In any case, the global Zeitgeist shifted, at least within environmental discourse. Future historians may mark the period from BP’s 2010 oil spill disaster, through Fukushima, to the 2012 Rio failure as a state shift in ecological awareness.

Link
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Hmmm....well NHC thinks that dry air ruined Ernesto in the Caribbean NOT trade winds.

Not as much dry air in the Caribbean right now so we shall see if they were right...lol.

Also, TD 7 has a much better core than Ernesto did at this point.

Should be interesting to watch.


Well defined inner core is the key difference between the two. Ernesto struggled to get one and lost it when it did. TD7 already has one and has 10 more degrees of longitude before reaching the Caribbean than Ernie did. TD7 should be a pretty formidable storm before reaching the Windwards.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If this ends up happening could it be pulled north into the Gulf kind of like Ernesto would've been if it had strengthened sooner?


Depends on if there is a weakness in the ridge...which would be caused by a trough.
Quoting pottery:

We downcasters are not impressed....

This could bring some real heavy rain to the Islands, with 40 mph wind.
Not good.


No it would be good for the upper islands.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Not Gordon yet, its TD7. I know what you mean but you never know what could happen.

It's so true man, thank you
Hi I am reposting because I was in post 1199 and the page flipped and no one will see my questions...



1199. seflagamma 4:57 PM AST on August 09, 2012 +0


Hi everyone,

quick questions, what is that swirl below cuba that affects that area and could affect S Fla?

Is it an ULL???? I think Pat mentioned something a while back but I could not figure it out.
Been in meetings and trying to pop in and out as I can.

Please someone let me know....and is that "X" Flo swirling out there NE of PR and North of the Virgin Islands and looking good?

Thanks in advance!!!
narrow.cone
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Im sure it will most of the models are north any way


Let's monitor that carefully tonight and tomorrow!
Quoting Derlong54:

It's so true man, thank you

Your welcome, don't want someone who doesnt know what goes on here to think it is a TS already.
500mb Anomaly shows that there should be a good deal of trofiness around the Eastern half of the country in 8-11 days. The analogs for the 500mb pattern show up in the bottom right. On of the tops is Andrew in 1992. TD7 will be approaching from a different location, but if it is still alive by the 8-11 day time frame the trough to the north should be able to pull it up out of the Caribbean somewhere. There were other analogs and timing decided whether they recurved or ran into the US. Time will tell, of course.

Quoting islander101010:
narrow.cone


It only looks narrow because of its length
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Can you not mouse over it either? thought it was just me


yes, the info is updated but shows the red circle and the TD 7 info when you mouse over it... it does not display the wave over Africa under 20% either...
Quoting islander101010:
narrow.cone


NHC is confident that I wont get rain..
Uh, yeah. I might have to go for a few minutes...

Watch the track of TD7 to shift north over the coming days as the NHC track is on very south edge of the model guidance right now. I suspect this maybe a recurve up toward FL or even the Bahamas.

Now if TD7 is heading straight west, WHY WOULD THAT THING COMING OFF OF AFRICA WOULD GO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb Anomaly shows that there should be a good deal of trofiness around the Eastern half of the country in 8-11 days. The analogs for the 500mb pattern show up in the bottom right. On of the tops is Andrew in 1992. TD7 will be approaching from a different location, but if it is still alive by the 8-11 day time frame the trough to the north should be able to pull it up out of the Caribbean somewhere. There were other analogs and timing decided whether they recurved or ran into the US. Time will tell, of course.



Thanks MSX. That is exactly the information I was curious about. Not good if there is a trof around 8-11 days. We shall see.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Ernesto still looks really good... Perhaps those models forecasting regeneration in the East Pac aren't so crazy after all...



It is about to reach a major mountain range... and then there is a second major range again before the Pacific (both Sierra Madre Ranges). Would be very impressive if it makes it over both...
Quoting MississippiWx:
Uh, yeah. I might have to go for a few minutes...



Haha. Me too! I have noticed the winds have been fairly strong here today. Unusual for August.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Another flare up of convection

That picture makes TD7 look like a bra.
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb Anomaly shows that there should be a good deal of trofiness around the Eastern half of the country in 8-11 days. The analogs for the 500mb pattern show up in the bottom right. On of the tops is Andrew in 1992. TD7 will be approaching from a different location, but if it is still alive by the 8-11 day time frame the trough to the north should be able to pull it up out of the Caribbean somewhere. There were other analogs and timing decided whether they recurved or ran into the US. Time will tell, of course.



Great post. I guess the question will become where will the turn happen.

Something Ernesto didn't have in the early stages is a nice inner core. So the chances of this surviving the Eastern Caribbean should be much better.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Uh, yeah. I might have to go for a few minutes...



Yikes!
1232. ncstorm
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thats going to be a long sleep and there is an interesting wave coming off Africa. Are you sure you want to sleep through it, ok whatever.


I cant deal with what the blog went through with Ernesto and putting it in the GOM scenario..Ernesto was boring with the constant promises of a "major" by bloggers every time the sun rose..sorry if I am not enthused but it looks like the same forecast if it follows Ernesto's path..not saying that will happen with this being only the first cone, just noting I dont want another Ernesto..and anyone who says I am wishing destruction is just trying to earn brownie points..everyone here on this blog wants to see a major form in the atlantic or you wouldnt be here...Im only brave enough to say it

"please attack at will!"
Quoting CothranRoss:

That picture makes TD7 look like a bra.


OK, Beavis. :)
ernesto.was.a.c.v.system...tougher.to.disrupt.
Nooooooo Ernesto part two!.Make it stop! make it stop!.Quick shear and dry air get rid of him!.

Good post ncstorm.I hated Ernesto.
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi I am reposting because I was in post 1199 and the page flipped and no one will see my questions...



1199. seflagamma 4:57 PM AST on August 09, 2012 +0


Hi everyone,

quick questions, what is that swirl below cuba that affects that area and could affect S Fla?

Is it an ULL???? I think Pat mentioned something a while back but I could not figure it out.
Been in meetings and trying to pop in and out as I can.

Please someone let me know....and is that "X" Flo swirling out there NE of PR and North of the Virgin Islands and looking good?

Thanks in advance!!!


I will be specific,
Pat, are you still here?

Do you know what that is off SE Fla coast that is swirling?
You pointed it out once but did no t say.

Is it the wave that is bringing us more rain this weekend?

Quoting ncstorm:
not another ernesto? wake me up when it hits Mexico..again..

In this case, it actually maybe more of a threat to Cuba and Hispanoila...
Quoting CaribBoy:
Now if TD7 is heading straight west, WHY WOULD THAT THING COMING OFF OF AFRICA WOULD GO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...


Big trough building down the eastern US and western Atlantic over the coming days.

Quoting CothranRoss:

I'm going into my senior this year and i'm looking for a good met school. I have narrowed it down to Millersville and NC State. I like Millersville better, but NC State is in state which makes it a lot cheaper. What else do you have to say about Millersville?


Again, the best part about Millersville was the smaller school feel. When you get into Synoptic I and II and Dynamics I and II, class size is about 15 students. You get on a first name basis with the prof. Great school, I highly recommend. Go up for a visit, you will be pleasantly surprised. The science building is impressive.
1240. LargoFl
271
WTNT42 KNHC 092036
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
WARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR
OVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT. AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Quoting seflagamma:


I will be specific,
Pat, are you still here?

Do you know what that is off SE Fla coast that is swirling?
You pointed it out once but did no t say.

Is it the wave that is bringing us more rain this weekend?



It is NOT a ULL. Nothing special...might be a rainmaker. It's not even circled by the NHC.
Top Ten Lessons from Ernesto

1) Make sure you don't jump the gun on lowering the TS warnings for the Caiman Islands too early.

2) Don't trust those models that talk about this "open wave" business.

3) Watch out for those darn ULL's and that Tutt Dude.

4) Don't drop the ball and forget to report on the fate of the folks that might be impacted by this storm just because they don't live in the United States.

5) Make sure you know what "Westerlies" are; this is different from mid and upper level sheer.

...................................... Yall Can Add the Rest.
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb Anomaly shows that there should be a good deal of trofiness around the Eastern half of the country in 8-11 days. The analogs for the 500mb pattern show up in the bottom right. On of the tops is Andrew in 1992. TD7 will be approaching from a different location, but if it is still alive by the 8-11 day time frame the trough to the north should be able to pull it up out of the Caribbean somewhere. There were other analogs and timing decided whether they recurved or ran into the US. Time will tell, of course.

Shhh. ;)
Quoting seflagamma:


I will be specific,
Pat, are you still here?

Do you know what that is off SE Fla coast that is swirling?
You pointed it out once but did no t say.

Is it the wave that is bringing us more rain this weekend?


Hey seflagamma:) I'll take a stab at it...no vorticity at 850, but there was at 500. I believe it is not a ULL Not sure it will turn into anything. NHC isn't circling it yet.
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb Anomaly shows that there should be a good deal of trofiness around the Eastern half of the country in 8-11 days. The analogs for the 500mb pattern show up in the bottom right. On of the tops is Andrew in 1992. TD7 will be approaching from a different location, but if it is still alive by the 8-11 day time frame the trough to the north should be able to pull it up out of the Caribbean somewhere. There were other analogs and timing decided whether they recurved or ran into the US. Time will tell, of course.


If TD 7 were to be still alive, at that time frame, we got ourselves a central Gulf TS, maybe...
The only way the US will get hit by a storm coming from the Atlantic from here on out will be if the storms travel thru the Caribbean and recurve as the El-Nino pattern of troughiness is beginning to set in it appears.

Quoting tennisgirl08:


It is NOT a ULL. Nothing special...might be a rainmaker. It's not even circled by the NHC.


Thank you, I thought I saw it circled yellow earlier.


Quoting hurricanehanna:

Hey seflagamma:) I'll take a stab at it...no vorticity at 850, but there was at 500. I believe it is a ULL not sure it will turn into anything. NHC isn't circling it yet.



Thanks, sounds like a rain maker to me also.

it is making a swirl if you watch it...

Quoting ncstorm:


I cant deal with what the blog went through with Ernesto and putting it in the GOM scenario..Ernesto was boring with the constant promises of a "major" by bloggers every time the sun rose..sorry if I am not enthused but it looks like the same forecast if it follows Ernesto's path..not saying that will happen with this being only the first cone, just noting I dont want another Ernesto..and anyone who says I am wishing destruction is just trying to earn brownie points..everyone here on this blog wants to see a major form in the atlantic or you wouldnt be here...Im only brave enough to say it

"please attack at will!"



My thoughts exactly
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Well defined inner core is the key difference between the two. Ernesto struggled to get one and lost it when it did. TD7 already has one and has 10 more degrees of longitude before reaching the Caribbean than Ernie did. TD7 should be a pretty formidable storm before reaching the Windwards.

50 Mph storm reaching the islands...
1250. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nooooooo Ernesto part two!.Make it stop! make it stop!.Quick shear and dry air get rid of him!.

Good post ncstorm.I hated Ernesto.


It was a hot mess!
1251. LargoFl
1252. MrMixon
NASA posted a beautiful high-resolution MODIS image of the massive storm churning in the Arctic earlier this week. Be sure to click the image below for the high-resolution version (it's well worth it):



An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA%u2019s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean.


More details here
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Shhh. ;)


LOL. No worries on S FL having an intense hurricane with this one. It would have to be pulled out of the Caribbean much earlier than anticipated and then get shoved west by a building ridge. I don't see the trough to accomplish that until it gets into the Western Caribbean. By then, you have Cuba as a barrier (sorry for them).
Quoting CaribBoy:
Now if TD7 is heading straight west, WHY WOULD THAT THING COMING OFF OF AFRICA WOULD GO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...

I'm guessing because it get stronger earlier and is further north.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Watch the track of TD7 to shift north over the coming days as the NHC track is on very south edge of the model guidance right now. I suspect this maybe a recurve up toward FL or even the Bahamas.



I wouldn't call this the "model" guidance...This is strictly the GFS guidance. Here is a better look at the overall model guidance...



Despite the model guidance, I would not be surprised to see a repeat of Ernesto...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

If TD 7 were to be still alive, at that time frame, we got ourselves a central Gulf TS, maybe...

With favorable wind shear, if this gets in the West Caribbean, it will be stronger than Ernesto. TCHP values in the NW Caribbean are insane.
I'd laugh if Ernesto managed to get into the EPAC and retain it's name, then make it all the way to the CPAC while becoming a hurricane.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

If TD 7 were to be still alive, at that time frame, we got ourselves a central Gulf TS, maybe...


Quite possible since the base of the trof is still in the midwest during that frame.

All timing.
Quoting StormJunkie:


I wouldn't call this the "model" guidance...This is strictly the GFS guidance. Here is a better look at the overall model guidance...



Despite the model guidance, I would not be surprised to see a repeat of Ernesto...


I know I just gave the example of the GFS ensembles but here's the guidance.

Some days this blog will take an image from SFWMD and other days it won't...Strange.
Still waiting on Isaac..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

With favorable wind shear, if this gets in the West Caribbean, it will be stronger than Ernesto. TCHP values in the NW Caribbean are insane.

Two words... actually five...
Uh. oh.


Got to go...
OSCAT missed ex-Florence & got the tropical wave coming to FL on Friday. Not much to see but some 20m/s (~45mph) wind..
Quoting Chucktown:


Again, the best part about Millersville was the smaller school feel. When you get into Synoptic I and II and Dynamics I and II, class size is about 15 students. You get on a first name basis with the prof. Great school, I highly recommend. Go up for a visit, you will be pleasantly surprised. The science building is impressive.

I toured this summer! It was a blast. Nice little department. I met Dr. Yalda, if you remember her.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'd laugh if Ernesto managed to get into the EPAC and retain it's name, then make it all the way to the CPAC while becoming a hurricane.

If it were to retain it's name, it could easily re-peak... LOL
Quoting MississippiWx:


Quite possible since the base of the trof is still in the midwest during that frame.

All timing.


Yeah this won't be an Ernesto/Ernie track I can assure you of that.

12Z Euro would indicate a recurve. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Fay track play out here.

I see that TD 7's development is officially official now, which is always nice. :P I'm actually surprised that the NHC expects this to survive past five days out and not dissipate it like (correctly) expected from Florence. In fact, I'm not so sure that TD 7 will be able to survive the journey to the Caribbean, much less through it. This looks like one of those rare times where the NHC is more aggressive with a system than I am. Looks like I've at least temporarily joined the dark side with the ranks of the downcasters! ;P
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. No worries on S FL having an intense hurricane with this one. It would have to be pulled out of the Caribbean much earlier than anticipated and then get shoved west by a building ridge. I don't see the trough to accomplish that until it gets into the Western Caribbean. By then, you have Cuba as a barrier (sorry for them).
A Fay repeat wouldn't bother me since classes start next Thursday, but Fay is as intense as I want them. Not interested in losing power and living like tribal men for a few days LOL. But like you said, we're still a ways out and it's all about timing -- we won't have a solid idea where it'll go in the long range for another 3-4 days...at least.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

With favorable wind shear, of this gets in the West Caribbean, it will be stronger than Ernesto. TCHP values in the NW Caribbean are insane.

oh boy we could be talking about a Cat 3 or 4 gulp we could see Gustav part 2 from SE of Jamaica onwards
Quoting LargoFl:
Very similar to Ernesto
Just because TCHP is insane doesn't mean a tropical cyclone will take advantage of them...Because if the upper environment doesn't support it it ain't gonna happen...
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. No worries on S FL having an intense hurricane with this one. It would have to be pulled out of the Caribbean much earlier than anticipated and then get shoved west by a building ridge. I don't see the trough to accomplish that until it gets into the Western Caribbean. By then, you have Cuba as a barrier (sorry for them).
I sure hope you are right Miss.No offense, but I never feel elated until it is passed us.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A Fay repeat wouldn't bother me since classes start next Thursday, but Fay is as intense as I want them. Not interested in losing power and living like tribal men for a few days LOL. But like you said, we're still a ways out and it's all about timing -- we won't have a solid idea where it'll go in the long range for another 3-4 days.


There's gonna be a recurve but the question is when some models are hinting at a recurve east of FL which possible as well.
1274. ncstorm


Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very similar to Ernesto


At this point yes but the NHC will have no choise to adjust the track north and show a recurve at some point.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Nooooooo Ernesto part two!.Make it stop! make it stop!.Quick shear and dry air get rid of him!.

Good post ncstorm.I hated Ernesto.

Wash!
This is the action replay, for those who missed it first time round.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'd laugh if Ernesto managed to get into the EPAC and retain it's name, then make it all the way to the CPAC while becoming a hurricane.

Until he dies or gets picked up by a trough, he still has a chance to fulfill my secret dream of having a storm travel around the world (Atlantic to EPac to CPac to WPac to BoB to Arabian Sea). One can dream, right? :P
Quoting StormJunkie:
Some days this blog will take an image from SFWMD and other days it won't...Strange.


I had to save it onto photobucket because I hadthe same problem earlier. Here you go.
1279. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just because TCHP is insane doesn't mean a tropical cyclone will take advantage of them...Because if the upper environment doesn't support it it ain't gonna happen...


please stop being realistic..geeezz!!
Once again, we're dealing with the global models being highly unenthusiastic about development in the short term, but the intensity models saying something else. In the end, the intensity models won for Ernesto but the global models where right with Ernesto all the way through the Central Caribbean. I doubt though TD7 will take the exact path as Ernesto did, as Ernesto was much farther south to the point of being in danger of running into Central America.
1281. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'd laugh if Ernesto managed to get into the EPAC and retain it's name, then make it all the way to the CPAC while becoming a hurricane.


I'm still waiting for a tropical wave from Africa to end up hitting China as a typhoon. Now that would be the best (month? two?) of my life.
Quoting CothranRoss:

I toured this summer! It was a blast. Nice little department. I met Dr. Yalda, if you remember her.


The only prof left from when I was there is Dr. Clark. I graduated in 1997.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Wash!
This is the action replay, for those who missed it first time round.
Lol.It's like one of those bad plays where people ask for a encore just to laugh at it.
we could see 93L later today
Quoting StormJunkie:


I wouldn't call this the "model" guidance...This is strictly the GFS guidance. Here is a better look at the overall model guidance...



Despite the model guidance, I would not be surprised to see a repeat of Ernesto...
This was TD 5 first model tracks:



Next set of runs will be for TD 7 which should start coming in around 8-9PM EDT.

1286. Levi32
TD 7 has the potential to ride farther north into the Gulf of Mexico in the long-term. The Caribbean is forecasted to be less favorable for TD 7 than it was for Ernesto, but the gulf is forecasted to remain favorable with broad upper ridging, so there is long-term potential for a sneaky problem.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


There's gonna be a recurve but the question is when some models are hinting at a recurve east of FL which possible as well.
We'll have to see how much latitude it gains in the Caribbean. If it takes the more poleward side of the cone and passes north of Jamaica, then I could see this being a Cuba/Florida event, whereas if it takes the more equatorward track, troughing influence will be less and thus a more subtle turn into the GOM is more likely. First and foremost, we need to see how it'll fare once it gets in the eastern Caribbean.
1288. VR46L
TD seven looks quite good in visible sat



but quite the beast in rainbow

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Until he dies or gets picked up by a trough, he still has a chance to fulfill my secret dream of having a storm travel around the world (Atlantic to EPac to CPac to WPac to BoB to Arabian Sea). One can dream, right? :P


You never know.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

oh boy we could be talking about a Cat 3 or 4 gulp we could see Gustav part 2 from SE of Jamaica onwards

Let's not get ahead of ourselves yet.
Quoting Levi32:


I'm still waiting for a tropical wave from Africa to end up hitting China as a typhoon. Now that would be the best (month? two?) of my life.
Here's a question: would it be possible for a cyclone to move across the equator from the northern hemisphere into the southern hemisphere, or vice verse; and what type of effect will it have on the cyclone?
Quoting Levi32:
TD 7 has the potential to ride farther north into the Gulf of Mexico in the long-term. The Caribbean is forecasted to be less favorable for TD 7 than it was for Ernesto, but the gulf is forecasted to remain favorable, so there is long-term potential for a sneaky problem.
Shh Levi.You shouldn't mention a storm in the Gulf...(:.
Quoting ncstorm:


please stop being realistic..geeezz!!
Hey gotta see what's in front of you now.Until I see a change i just don't see it happening...
1293. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:
TD 7 has the potential to ride farther north into the Gulf of Mexico in the long-term. The Caribbean is forecasted to be less favorable for TD 7 than it was for Ernesto, but the gulf is forecasted to remain favorable with broad upper ridging, so there is long-term potential for a sneaky problem.


So that means you are going with the GFS because it looks like the other models curve it well before the GOM?
Quoting Levi32:
TD 7 has the potential to ride farther north into the Gulf of Mexico in the long-term. The Caribbean is forecasted to be less favorable for TD 7 than it was for Ernesto, but the gulf is forecasted to remain favorable with broad upper ridging, so there is long-term potential for a sneaky problem.



Oh snappppp.... you go levi, im ready for a sneaky one lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
we could see 93L later today
To tell you the honest truth Taz I thought we would have had 93L already:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves yet.

yeah not yet but further N with the TCHP it very well could be
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

oh boy we could be talking about a Cat 3 or 4 gulp we could see Gustav part 2 from SE of Jamaica onwards


Lol. In your highest of hopes.
1298. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here's a question: would it be possible for a cyclone to move across the equator from the northern hemisphere into the southern hemisphere, or vice verse; and what type of effect will it have on the cyclone?


If steering currents push one across it is theoretically possible, though obviously we know of no such occurrences because the setup would be so hard to get. The effect would simply be the storm losing the support of the Coriolis and decreasing in angular momentum (spin) as it passes into the opposite hemisphere. If you want to push it further, if the system were to maintain a low pressure area throughout the passage over the equator, once south of 5-7S it could cease rotation and then eventually start spinning clockwise as a southern hemisphere cyclone.
Quoting MrMixon:
NASA posted a beautiful high-resolution MODIS image of the massive storm churning in the Arctic earlier this week. Be sure to click the image below for the high-resolution version (it's well worth it):



An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA%u2019s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean.


More details here

So I clicked on the link and messed about with the magnification, apart from the Greenland ice cap and the odd bits of brown shoreline, there doesn't appear to be many white icy bits showing through the gaps in the clouds on any of the shot.
The extent of that storm must have been massive, I reckon that the center of it was about 3 times the size of Greenland, from the linked picture. Well worth a look.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. In your highest of hopes.
I remembered when he said Ernesto could be a cat 4 in the N.W caribbean.
Quoting Levi32:


If steering currents push one across it is theoretically possible, though obviously we know of no such occurrences because the setup would be so hard to get. The effect would simply be the storm losing the support of the Coriolis and decreasing in angular momentum (spin) as it passes into the opposite hemisphere. If you want to push it further, if the system were to maintain a low pressure area throughout the passage over the equator, once south of 5-7S it could cease rotation and then eventually start spinning clockwise as a southern hemisphere cyclone.
I've always wondered this. Would definitely be something to watch a cyclone shift in directions of spin as it crosses the equator. Thanks for the in-depth answer btw.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remembered when he said Ernesto could be a cat 4 in the N.W caribbean.

Way to just call somebody out there..
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remembered when he said Ernesto could be a cat 4 in the N.W caribbean.

I wasn't being serious when I said that you know
Afternoon all.

I see the ghost of Florence past is, as we have been thinking, making an attempt to revive itself...

1306. TXCWC
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Once again, we're dealing with the global models being highly unenthusiastic about development in the short term, but the intensity models saying something else. In the end, the intensity models won for Ernesto but the global models where right with Ernesto all the way through the Central Caribbean. I doubt though TD7 will take the exact path as Ernesto did, as Ernesto was much farther south to the point of being in danger of running into Central America.


Exactly what I saw and because both the GFS and EURO are unenthusiastic with this once in the carribean I AM AS WELL - fool me once shame on you fool me twice...As of right now I am NOT buying into a 65mph storm by the time it reaches Jamaica...not UNLESS either the GFS or Euro STOP opening this up by day 4 or 5.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

oh boy we could be talking about a Cat 3 or 4 gulp we could see Gustav part 2 from SE of Jamaica onwards


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Still waiting on Isaac..


Isaac's storm? It would be ironic (and tragic) if it becomes a major and hits Galveston.
Quoting floridaboy14:
i dont like the track. way too far south


I agree. Personally, I think it's going between Jamiaca and Domincan Rep and then skirt along Cuba. Just mho!
1310. Hugo5
Ernesto will become tropical depression ernesto some time tonight now that it is hitting the high mountians in central mexico. TD 7 was no surprise formation to no one except NOAA that only gave it a 30% chance yesterday morning and 70% later in the day. The new wave coming off Africa will still need some time for the transition from land to open waters, but looks quite strong still and may make depressions status in the next day, I would give it the 70% chance. reminants of Flo are still becoming better organized and are in slightly more favorable conditions today, but will likely not develop until moving out of the moderate wind shear that it is in now. The tropical wave approaching FL will likely bring lots of rain and not develope into anything any time soon. Thanks for your time and please feel free to comment on the update.
1311. Levi32
Quoting ncstorm:


So that means you are going with the GFS because it looks like the other models curve it well before the GOM?


Well yeah. The models often try to shove weak storms north out of the trade wind flow too quickly in the central Atlantic. They did it with Ernesto too. The Bermuda ridge isn't supposed to break down over the next 5 days either. The NHC has caught onto this and stuck their track on the far southern side of the model guidance, which I agree with completely.

1312. yqt1001
Gordon, a re-Ernesto?

Didn't expect to have so many CV storms by mid August though. O_o
1313. Roark
Just as a point of reference, how old are you WonderKidCayman, and are you planning a career as a met?
Quoting jascott1967:


Isaac's storm? It would be ironic (and tragic) if it becomes a major and hits Galveston.
I'm hoping he becomes something like the one from 2000.Beautiful cape verde storm that stayed waaaaay out in the Atlantic.
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.

ok this is what I say condition are not as favorable NOW cause you said are which is the NOW which I totaly agree but it is to become better and even better than what ernesto had so yeah take it and eat it
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.


Conditions aren't favorable now, that is thanks to the outflow from Ernesto which is forecasted to move away according to the GFS, which shows favorable conditions in the Western Caribbean. Besides, Ernesto barely survived the Eastern Caribbean. He became quite an impressive Hurricane in the Western Caribbean however.
Quoting yqt1001:
Gordon, a re-Ernesto?

Didn't expect to have so many CV storms by mid August though. O_o


Gordon would be only the second, which is not all that unusual especially in an El Nino year.
Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.

TD 7 already has a well defined inner core...Ernesto didn't have one until the West Caribbean.
Quoting Roark:
Just as a point of reference, how old are you WonderKidCayman, and are you planning a career as a met?


prepare to be shouted at....
1320. GPTGUY
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok this is what I say condition are not as favorable NOW cause you said are which is the NOW which I totaly agree but it is to become better and even better than what ernesto had so yeah take it and eat it


Why are you so hell bent on having a major hurricane impact the Cayman Islands? I keep trying to figure that out and I just don't understand it.
2009 was a El nino year and spit out some good cape verde storms.Anna Bill Fred..T.D eight..So if that year could spit out four then why not this one?.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

TD 7 already has a well defined inner core...Ernesto didn't have one until the West Caribbean.

tell him again
1324. Roark
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


prepare to be shouted at....

It was a simple question. Dont read anything into it. This is how our next crop of mets may get started. Give him 10 or 15 years of hard study and you never know where he will end up.
It was a dead-neutral, honest request
Quoting washingtonian115:
2009 was a El nino year and spit out some good cape verde storms.Anna Bill Fred..T.D eight..So if that year could spit out four then why not this one?.



this is not a ture EL nino year yet
1326. LargoFl
Another eight days of virtual torture on the horizon.... Yall Have a Safe Evening and See Everyone Tomorrow............WW.
1328. LargoFl
..keeping an eye on that down by PR and cuba, winds picking up
Quoting GPTGUY:


Why are you so hell bent on having a major hurricane impact the Cayman Islands? I keep trying to figure that out and I just don't understand it.

I am hot hell bent on having a maj H on top of me



anyone have the SHIP text file for TD7
Quoting Roark:

It was a simple question. Dont read anything into it. This is how our next crop of mets may get started. Give him 10 or 15 years of hard study and you never know where he will end up.
It was a dead-neutral, honest request


i was talking about the insinuation that he was a kid...
he is not and he takes offense to that
72 hrs and NO td 7
There is pretty good model agreement on the TUTT hovering just north of the Antilles and not moving much over the next 5 days. TD7 will more than likely have a little trouble with shear as he enters the Eastern Caribbean and possibly into the Central Caribbean. Shear looks to drop off to the 10-15kt range in the Central Caribbean, but that could be devastating to a weak system battling trade winds. Some of you are stating that this will be "another boring storm." To me, it is fun to be challenged by all of these obstacles, putting into use the lessons learned through previous storms and seeing if they apply to the next.
1333. GPTGUY
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am hot hell bent on having a maj H on top of me



anyone have the SHIP text file for TD7



It sure seems like it..every wave that rolls off Africa is a Cat 3 or 4 near the Cayman's according to you!
1334. Roark
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i was talking about the insinuation that he was a kid...
he is not and he takes offense to that

Oops. Gotcha. Thanks for the heads-up :)
1335. LargoFl
.........................................finally SW florida is getting some good rains
Quoting lottotexas:
72 hrs and NO td 7

Basically throw this one out... Initialization is key and it's obv not picking up on the fact that we have a td.
1337. icmoore
Quoting Roark:

It was a simple question. Dont read anything into it. This is how our next crop of mets may get started. Give him 10 or 15 years of hard study and you never know where he will end up.
It was a dead-neutral, honest request


Running out of the room to find my ear plugs LOL!
Convection increasing on African Wave as soon it splashed into the water.

1339. LargoFl
Link
My Blog Update
This was GFS shear map at 12z:



I'm trying to figure out what might prevent TD 7 from developing further when it gets into the Eastern Caribbean. 3 factors: shear, trade winds, and dry air to look at. I'm thinking the stronger the ridge the more faster the trade winds and dry air present. Also another factor to consider is any ULL that might develop. A weaker ridge might result in better development and slower trades and a more moisture environment.

ok I'll explane but first I'm going to get something to eat
Quoting washingtonian115:
Still waiting on Isaac..

Been gone awhile so thats why you're waiting;)
Right now there is TD7 and that wave off Africa, then I come in.
1344. LargoFl
WUUS52 KJAX 092155
SVRJAX
GAC305-092215-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0189.120809T2155Z-120809T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JESUP...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DOCTORTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.



LAT...LON 3171 8187 3167 8184 3166 8181 3158 8169
3156 8169 3144 8186 3157 8201 3169 8194
3172 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 219DEG 16KT 3159 8185



SHASHY
Quoting MississippiWx:
There is pretty good model agreement on the TUTT hovering just north of the Antilles and not moving much over the next 5 days. TD7 will more than likely have a little trouble with shear as he enters the Eastern Caribbean and possibly into the Central Caribbean. Shear looks to drop off to the 10-15kt range in the Central Caribbean, but that could be devastating to a weak system battling trade winds. Some of you are stating that this will be "another boring storm." To me, it is fun to be challenged by all of these obstacles, putting into use the lessons learned through previous storms and seeing if they apply to the next.


Ernesto was by no means a boring storm either.
Quoting weatherman12345:

Basically throw this one out... Initialization is key and it's obv not picking up on the fact that we have a td.
It was initialized but GFS dissipated td7 as it approached E Caribbean

1347. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:


Well yeah. The models often try to shove weak storms north out of the trade wind flow too quickly in the central Atlantic. They did it with Ernesto too. The Bermuda ridge isn't supposed to break down over the next 5 days either. The NHC has caught onto this and stuck their track on the far southern side of the model guidance, which I agree with completely.



I only ask because you stated not to get caught up into worshipping the GFS and some of the ensembles for the GFS show a curve as well..also if you look at the GFS operational model runs, its only showing recurves out to sea for the atlantic storms its forecasting..but thanks anyway
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting lottotexas:
It was initialized but GFS dissipated td7 as it approached E Caribbean


Which could very well happen if it has a hard time of dealing with shear and dry air present.. Let's not even get in to the trade wind issue lol
New Blog, lets go
Quoting wxchaser97:

Been gone awhile so thats why you're waiting;)
Right now there is TD7 and that wave off Africa, then I come in.
Well hurry it up,and you better not cause any death or destruction.
1352. Msdrown
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah this won't be an Ernesto/Ernie track I can assure you of that.

12Z Euro would indicate a recurve. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Fay track play out here.




What yr was Fay???
Can anyone give me a link that shows all GFS Ensemble Members track forecast for Tropical Storms/Hurricanes? Is there such a thing?
1355. VR46L
The wave train keeps on going!

Quoting luvtogolf:


I have a sneaky feeling that this storm isn't going to survive the Caribbean ( sorry to disappoint you with my thinking). Conditions are not as favorable as they were with Ernesto and he barely made it.
I'm also thinking how reluctant most of the models were to pick this up to begin with... IMO suggests some challenges for this system that may not be immediately apparent.

Quoting Levi32:


Well yeah. The models often try to shove weak storms north out of the trade wind flow too quickly in the central Atlantic. They did it with Ernesto too. The Bermuda ridge isn't supposed to break down over the next 5 days either. The NHC has caught onto this and stuck their track on the far southern side of the model guidance, which I agree with completely.

The climatology supports the earlier turn... which reminds us that the trough over the eastern CONUS is a much more regular feature than some would like to admit...

Quoting GPTGUY:


Why are you so hell bent on having a major hurricane impact the Cayman Islands? I keep trying to figure that out and I just don't understand it.
Just because we're paranoid doesn't mean we're wrong... [been burned before...]

1357. VR46L
the Atlantic picture in Rainbow

NEW BLOG everybody still on this one
1360. centex
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It only looks narrow because of its length
No, it's narrow in early days. It's going west and not much uncertainty.