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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

92L drenches Puerto Rico, and could develop into a TD by Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2010

Invest 92L continues its steady march to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean. The storm has brought up to 4 inches of rain to Puerto Rico today, and will spread heavy rains of up to four inches over the Dominican Republic tonight and Haiti on Sunday. Rains of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake. There is no evidence of a surface circulation apparent on visible satellite imagery or surface observations. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry, continental air from North America in the storm's environment. With wind shear at 30 - 40 knots today and expected to be 20 - 30 knots on Sunday, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

92L could develop by Wednesday
Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, though it appears that much of the disturbance's energy is tracking almost due west, and thus may escape disruption by these islands. If 92L manages to hold together through the high wind shear, dry air, and mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it may enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots in the region near central Cuba. Some modest moistening of the atmosphere may also occur at that time, according to the latest SHIPS model run. The latest 12Z GFS model run indicates re-organization of 92L may occur by Wednesday over the waters near the Lower Florida Keys, but the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not show this. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to become a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico next week are significant, and I give 92L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a possible tropical depression to form in the central Caribbean on Friday.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next four days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have an offshore northerly component through Sunday, and an easterly component beginning on Monday. The resulting ocean currents should keep the oil near the coast from Alabama to Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for the period Monday - Wednesday show only weak flow, which would result in little transport of oil from its current location. The long range 5+ day outlook is uncertain, as we will have to see what Invest 92L does once it reaches the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. If the GFS model is correct, we can expect 92L to bring strong easterly winds to the oil spill location late next week, pushing the oil towards Louisiana.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Friday, June 18, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting truecajun:


I feel bad for him, but seriously, he's no commander in chief.

So tell me in detail what a Commander in Chief does in a situation like this? In detail please.
Quoting gator23:
the NHC has been "investing" in 92L for a long time now with little return. I am glad they are not handling my finances.
Or you would've been on low budget.LoL.
1503. scott39
To discount 92L as not being a TC threat to land, before we see how it does when it gets away from shear, is irresponible!
wow the cimss didnt update on the atlantic side lol
Quoting Drakoen:


It never did although it would be nice for GFS support to what the ECMWF is showing.
Agreed. I would pick the ECMWF over the GFS any day though.
One of the Chariot schemes involved chaining five thermonuclear devices to create the artificial harbor.

Operation Plowshare, not to be confused with the anti-nuclear Plowshares Movement, was the overall term of the U.S. portion of the Peaceful Nuclear Explosions project. Twenty-eight nuclear blasts were detonated between 1961 and 1973. One of the first plowshare nuclear blast cratering proposals that came close to being carried out was Project Chariot, which would have used several hydrogen bombs to create an artificial harbor at Cape Thompson, Alaska. It was never carried out due to concerns for the native populations and the fact that there was little potential use for the harbor to justify its risk and expense. There was also talk of using nuclear explosions to excavate a second Panama Canal.

The largest excavation experiment took place in 1962 at the Department of Energy's Nevada Test Site. The Sedan nuclear test carried out as part of Operation Storax displaced 12 million tons of earth, creating the largest man-made crater in the world, generating a large nuclear fallout over Nevada and Utah. Explosions in oil and gas fields did indeed stimulate production, but in some cases the fuel was so radioactive it was unusable.

The "Gas Buggy" site, located 55 miles east of Farmington, New Mexico, still contains nuclear contamination from a single subsurface blast in 1967. [1]

After spending estimated at more than $770 million USD, funding for the project ended in 1977. No nuclear blast has been used for a commercial purpose in the United States to date.
[edit] Soviet Union: Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy

The Soviet Union conducted a much more vigorous program of 239 nuclear tests, some with multiple devices, between 1965 and 1988 under the auspices of Program No. 6 and Program No. 7-Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy. Its aims and results were similar to those of the American effort, with the exception that many of the blasts were considered applications, not tests. The best known of these in the West was the Chagan test in January 1965 as radioactivity from the Chagan test was detected over Japan by both the U.S. and Japan. The United States complained to the Soviets, but the matter was dropped.

There are proponents for continuing the PNE programs in modern Russia. They (e.g. A. Koldobsky) state that the program already paid for itself and saved the USSR billions of rubles and can save even more if continued. They also allege that the PNE is the only feasible way to put out large fountains and fires on natural gas deposits and the safest and most economically viable way to destroy chemical weapons.

Their opponents (include the academician A.V. Yablokov) [1] state that all PNE technologies have non-nuclear alternatives and that many PNEs actually caused nuclear disasters.

Reports on the successful Soviet use of nuclear explosions in extinguishing out of control gas well fires were widely cited in United States policy discussions of options for stopping the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. [2] [3]
1507. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm starting to think that this might be a record quiet year, similar to 1998.


dang... now I'll have to check the 98 typhoon season on wikipedia
LOL!
how do you find out how many comments you've made???
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
You can blame that on the MJO NCHurricane2009.


If I am not mistaken, that means the MJO is knocking on the door of the west Atlantic. That means soon, we should see increased chances tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic?
1498. Stormchaser2007 9:39 PM PDT on June 19, 2010 Hide this comment.
A,B,C lol




is there a D lol
the new GFS is being a wishcaster
Quoting scott39:
To discount 92L as not being a TC threat to land, before we see how it does when it gets away from shear, is irresponible!

yup lol
1513. gator23
Quoting Tazmanian:
the new GFS is being a wishcaster

didnt you just say it was being a downcaster?
Quoting Tazmanian:
the new GFS is being a wishcaster


I hate it when models wishcast...
92L might be working on something. Notice the new flare of convection south of Puerto Rico.

92L is making a come back right now. SW Caribbean feature is moving fast ashore right now. 92L will make it into the gulf later next week and some heavy duty rain is on tap for the FL penisula Wed thru next Sunday.
1517. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:


I hate it when models wishcast...

it usually depends on where you live and if the storm is shown going away from you or not.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the new GFS is being a wishcaster


LOL, agree
Yeah they spotted 2 whale sharks off the coast of Sarasota. It's not normal to see them so close to shore. On a tropical note, 92L is trying to fire convection tonight. I'm sure the fact that shear over it has backed off a lot doesn't hurt.
Quoting Jeff9641:
92L is making a come back right now. SW Caribbean feature is moving fast ashore right now. 92L will make it into the gulf later next week and some heavy duty rain is on tap for the FL penisula Wed thru next Sunday.
I don't see the SW Caribbean AOI moving westward, it remains stationary and should begin northward motion soon.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L might be working on something. Notice the new flare of convection south of Puerto Rico.



THere is a COC developing on the SW side of that convection.
Well I'm off to bed. I wish everyone a pleasant evening (actually morning).
Quoting CaneWarning:


I hate it when models wishcast...
Models can not wishcast becuase they are not human.The model might be over doing it,or it's confused.
Quoting charlottefl:
Yeah they spotted 2 whale sharks off the coast of Sarasota. It's not normal to see them so close to shore. On a tropical note, 92L is trying to fire convection tonight. I'm sure the fact that shear over it has backed off a lot doesn't hurt.


News 13 of orlando is warning people about entering the gulf due to number of bull sharks near shore.
Quoting Jeff9641:
92L is making a come back right now. SW Caribbean feature is moving fast ashore right now. 92L will make it into the gulf later next week and some heavy duty rain is on tap for the FL penisula Wed thru next Sunday.


Where did you see that forecast?
Quoting charlottefl:
Yeah they spotted 2 whale sharks off the coast of Sarasota. It's not normal to see them so close to shore. On a tropical note, 92L is trying to fire convection tonight. I'm sure the fact that shear over it has backed off a lot doesn't hurt.


I saw that on the news. They were HUGE!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see the SW Caribbean AOI moving westward, it remains stationary and should begin northward motion soon.


What's the best resource for determining the steering currents?
1528. JRRP
the big mass of convection is moving toward PR
1529. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


News 13 of orlando is warning people about entering the gulf due to number of bull sharks near shore.

Orlando is one of America's greatest cities.
1531. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L might be working on something. Notice the new flare of convection south of Puerto Rico.

Can you tell at what stage it is at right now in developement---- if any?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Where did you see that forecast?


I saw this on the GFS model and it's been consistant with this for days now. NWS of melbourne mentions this next week via the GFS.
1533. gator23
Quoting gator23:

Orlando is one of America's greatest cities.


well.. top 20
1534. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:
the big mass of convection is moving toward PR


more rain ¬¬
shoo, go away 92L! XD
1535. gator23
Quoting gator23:


well... top 20



well... top 100
Quoting gator23:


well.. top 20


More like it!
Quoting truecajun:


Yeah, and with all of that on his shoulders, he managed to plunge our nation into even more mind boggling amounts of debt which in turn is enslaving us to China and the like. He and his people and his czars are stealing from hard working Americans. I'm not going to get started on Obama. I will give him this, I dont' think there is much he can do for the spill. As much as the man infuriates me on every other level, I'll give him a pass there.

We should stick to the weather and science related oil spill stuff.

Stealing from working americans? Working americans who work 60 to 80 hour work weeks, and can't afford health insurance. Mostly everybody works hard now-a-days. Most people aren't given anything. And the small percentage that are not "earning their keep" sort to speak are barely getting enough to get by. So let's leave as you say "the hard working americans" out in the cold by letting their house's get foreclosed on. Because their treating an illness.
Quoting btwntx08:
wow the cimss didnt update on the atlantic side lol
1539. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


More like it!


well... top 100 in Florida.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the new GFS is being a wishcaster


I just wish they'd stop casting their storms my way. :)


closer zoomed in image
Quoting gator23:


well... top 100 in Florida.


I live in Longwood north of Orlando.
Quoting gator23:


well... top 100 in Florida.


I would agree. Orlando is certainly one of Florida's top 100 cities. lol
1545. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


I live in Longwood north of Orlando.

that my friend is a hilarious name for a city.
I just finish watching the weather channel tropical update.They said nothing in the atlantic to talk about.Just some rain for the nothern carribean islands.Then the immediatley rushed over to the pacific and started talking about two storms that won't even do nothing.
Quoting gator23:

that my friend is a hilarious name for a city.


lol
1548. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:


I would agree. Orlando is certainly one of Florida's top 100 cities. lol

oh its in there LOL. Right between Interlachen and Valpariso
Quoting charlottefl:


Yep, just as suspected, that steering current map shows a deep-layered ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and that should keep SW Caribbean disturbance on a slow westward course. Same goes for 92L, should continue generally west.
1550. gator23
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yep, just as suspected, that steering current map shows a deep-layered ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and that should keep SW Caribbean disturbance on a slow westward course. Same goes for 92L, should continue generally west.

for now... MWAHAHAHA (evil laugh)
Quoting gator23:

that my friend is a hilarious name for a city.


I agree but a nice upscale area my friend.
Quoting gator23:

that my friend is a hilarious name for a city.
Lol.
1553. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree but a nice upscale area my friend.

I believe it. Saw some of the pictures.
wonder where xcool aka scott is lol
Well I'm off to bed.
A lot of people on here are placing all the blame on BP and President Obama; however, lets not forget (or should we be reminded or informed in the first place) who should shoulder much of the blame and is getting a free pass from our beloved main stream media, and that is the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT! Here is a nice article from Judge Andrew Napolitano, the only seemingly voice of reason on Fox News (or CNN, MSNBC and the rest).

The Government Cannot Protect Us From Every Catastrophe We Face

Wednesday, June 16, 2010
By Judge Andrew Napolitano

Tuesday night, in an Oval Office speech to the nation, President Obama took the gloves off.

He lashed out at BP over the monumental oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. He vowed that he will make BP pay for all the long and short-term damage it caused. He argued that the battle against this now nearly two-month-old raging gusher of oil is tantamount to a war. And he asked the country to allow him and the Congress to regulate all businesses
and private homes in the name of going green.

For most Americans, it was the first time they saw him angry — although a controlled anger from the no-drama-Obama, as his own campaign staff labeled him two years ago. But will the president's feigned anger get the oil well plugged? Will it get cash into the hands of those truly harmed? Will it prevent future disasters?

No, no and no.

Here are the facts: After the Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska in 1989 had been cleaned up and nearly paid for by Exxon, the oil companies lobbied the Congress for liability limits — maximum amounts that they could be held to pay for in the event of a disaster.

A Republican Congress and President Clinton together made it the law that oil companies would be limited to pay $75 million for cleanups and the taxpayers — that would be you — would pay the rest. In return, the feds would be able to tell the oil companies where to drill.

In the case of BP, it asked the state of Louisiana if it could drill in 500 feet of water and Louisiana said it could. The federal government vetoed that and told BP could only drill in 5,000 feet of water.

Never mind that no oil company had ever cleaned up a broken well at that depth and never mind that the feds had never monitored a broken well at that depth and never mind that BP only needed to set aside $75 million in case something went wrong. The feds trumped BP's engineers and the feds trumped the wishes of the folks who live along the Gulf Coast and the feds decided where this oil well would be drilled.

Disaster struck. The feds did nothing. Oil gushed out in an amount that is so great as to be immeasurable. Political pressure grew.

The president eventually panicked because he believes that his federal government can right every wrong, regulate every activity and protect us from every catastrophe. He is wrong. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was ready to build barriers to protect his state's coastline and the feds said no.

The president even invoked powers that allow him to supervise the cleanup using BP personnel and equipment. And the oil still gushes. Last week, the president stopped all oil drilling in the Gulf putting thousands out of work. Last night he demanded billions from BP so his team could decide who gets it and today a terrified BP gave him all the cash he asked for.

So, the government that foolishly limited BP's maximum liability, the government that claimed it knew where best to drill, the government that actually stopped locals from protecting their own shoreline — that would be that same government that bankrupted Social Security
, Medicare, Medicaid, the Post Office, Amtrak and virtually everything it has managed — now wants to decide who gets BP's cash.

The last time this government had this much private cash to give away, during the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies, it disregarded well-settled law and gave it to the labor unions. To whom will it give this cash — the innocent injured or its political friends?

The government cannot protect us from every catastrophe, especially ones its rules have facilitated. How about this: That government is best which governs least.

The people have a right to a government that obeys the laws of economics, the laws of physics and the Constitution. Let private enterprise do what it does best and keep politics out of the way.

If the Constitution was written to keep the government off the people's backs, it is time for the feds to get off.
















Quoting NortheastGuy:

Stealing from working americans? Working americans who work 60 to 80 hour work weeks, and can't afford health insurance. Mostly everybody works hard now-a-days. Most people aren't given anything. And the small percentage that are not "earning their keep" sort to speak are barely getting enough to get by. So let's leave as you say "the hard working americans" out in the cold by letting their house's get foreclosed on. Because their treating an illness.

Yet the same group of people want to raise the cost of everything, which will be hardest on those very people, in the name of extra cost for fossil fuels will suddenly make other energy sources more viable. A serious conflict there.
That storm that rolled across China is coming appart. It had a lot of white on the rainbow earlier. Death toll is 136 so far with 1.4 million evacuated.




You have posted 104 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 16310 comments in all blogs.

Hi Wunderfolk.
1560. scott39
92L is getting its act together right now!!
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I just wish they'd stop casting their storms my way. :)


Hi homeless...remember me? I hear this is suppose to be a busy season. I guess we will see.
1562. gator23
goodnight all! The late night politics shift is on so Im out.
Quoting gator23:
goodnight all! The late night politics shift is on so Im out.


yea no kidding lol
Quoting scott39:
92L is getting its act together right now!!

You gotta be kiddin me.
Well Goodnight gang staying out of politics tonight, was going to say watch out Pottery I think something is sneaking up from the s.e. but haven't seen him tonight.
1566. xcool
i'm here
after looking at the new shear map it loow like that upper level high over SW Caribbean is moving NE towards 92L
nop not kiding
1569. scott39
Quoting Chicklit:

You gotta be kiddin me.
Im not the expert, but i recognize counter clockwise convection around a swirl!
Quoting scott39:
92L is getting its act together right now!!

yep
92L definity not dead at all
1572. Grothar
It has one small pocket of 40kt winds to go through yet, after that who knows. By the way, we are having some lightening here in Ft. Lauderdale.

1573. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


92l does not have to develop at all for the potential are in the southern Caribbean to develop or advect northward.


Yes it does. There is no weakness in the steering ridge to draw the monsoon disturbance northward until 92L supplies that weakness.

92L doesn't have to become a tropical depression to supply that weakness but it does have to remain or become a significant low-mid level feature in the gulf.
cant wait too see what 92L looks AM
1575. JRRP
aqui en Santo Domingo
el viento esta calmado,
ausencia de nubes,
algunos relampagos muy distantes hacia el este noreste...

see you tomorrow
1576. xcool
cab 20 to 15 k wind shear.
Nice little anticyclone in SW Caribbean.
1579. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Yes it does. There is no weakness to draw the monsoon disturbance northward until 92L supplies that weakness.
What is 92L doing right now?
thats from 2100z lol the dum cimss never updated since then
1581. Patrap


No Groups are running ensemble model runs on 92L cuz their is No circulation.

1582. DDR
Hello
Numerous showers spreading across Trinidad from that wave/itcz,it could get really bad overnight.
Quoting Grothar:
It has one small pocket of 40kt winds to go through yet, after that who knows. By the way, we are having some lightening here in Ft. Lauderdale.




old
so all these cimss graphics are old already its not up to date
Quoting btwntx08:
thats from 2100z lol the dum cimss never updated since then


If your talking about my post, that image is 0300Z
1586. xcool
hmm
1587. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
What is 92L doing right now?


Not much....it's going through it's nocturnal bursting but as I expected it's not a very strong burst. Tomorrow's visible imagery will reveal whether the wave axis remains as amplified as it was today. No significant changes appear to be occurring tonight.


92L one persistent little invest.
1589. scott39
Quoting Patrap:


No Groups are running ensemble model runs on 92L cuz their is No circulation.

If that isnt circulation on the Sat then what is it?
Quoting JRRP:
aqui en Santo Domingo
el viento esta calmado,
ausencia de nubes,
algunos relampagos muy distantes hacia el este noreste...

see you tomorrow
The activity should increase tomorrow morning. Buenas noches desde La Romana
Ok, imo, if 92L gets anywhere near to where they can name him Alex, then they should go ahead and give it to him. He's worked hard for it and has earned it. Then we'll deal with him from there. Imo, he should have been named when he was almost as big as Brazil in the Atlantic. By the way, do we really want to be naming storms things like Alex and Isis? Photobucket
1593. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Not much....it's going through it's nocturnal bursting but as I expected it's not a very strong burst. Tomorrow's visible imagery will reveal whether the wave axis remains as amplified as it was today. No significant changes appear to be occurring tonight.
Then why on the Sat does it look like theres counter clockwise circulation where the flare ups are?
Quoting Patrap:


The Last run was 18Z in the ensemble pkg.



Suree. The only thing remotely close to a circulation in the area is off the N coast of the Dominican Republic, in the Atlantic.
There is a beautiful example of a land breeze off the west coast of Florida right now.

It formed about 12 hours after the seabreeze formed this morning.

I expect this activity should diminish by 3-4am then refire and move ashore early tomorrow morning along the coast.

More morning storms for Tampa :D
wait the cimss just updated finally lol the 00z one never came out but finally its there lol
Quoting Chicklit:


92L one persistent little invest.



vary old 92L mode runs are not updateing any more
1598. xcool




best map..
92L is still not all that well organized, despite the gradually decreasing shear. As always, the convection is displaced to the east of the surface center.
Quoting scott39:
If that isnt circulation on the Sat then what is it?



JFV row boat
1601. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



old


Are you calling me old? LOL
1602. Patrap
No circulation is present thru the Layers tonight..but viz is not available to confirm,..but some slight Cyclonic turning is evident.

But no CoC.


As it makes it way to more climo favored Central and Western Caribbean we may see development again as noted by the Big Dogs on the NHC Porch and Dr. Masters



Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


If your talking about my post, that image is 0300Z

nevermind i check myself and it finally updated lol
that think has erors CyclonicVoyage I will wait till 12Z tomrrow
Quoting btwntx08:

nevermind i check myself and it finally updated lol


Thanks for checking that for me :-/
1607. xcool
see our first named storm june 21 to june30 .imo..
1608. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Then why on the Sat does it look like theres counter clockwise circulation where the flare ups are?


I see some possible mid-level rotation as well, but the tropical wave axis is well off to the west of the Convection. Interesting to me is that the convection as a whole is not traveling westward following the surface feature tonight, which hasn't happened before. This either means the system is being hopelessly sheared to pieces, or else the wave axis has weakened and a new trough is forming farther east. Either way, significant development is not likely tonight, and we'll just have to see how it looks tomorrow.
Quoting xcool:




best map..


actually that shear map is not the best, CIMSS is more detailed and more accurate
1610. Levi32
Puerto Rico radar does support the possibility of a new low-mid level trough forming to the southwest of the island.
1611. xcool
Hurricanes101.sorry yes imo.thanks
anyone not notice on the wv maps that a circulation from 92L went way north of PR?

Just a thought, but if Obama is successful in bringing Nuclear power near our nations rivers and streams, and somehow due to lack oversight by Ken Salazar and others we have a Nuclear "accident" after the Oil "accident in the Gulf, could it be that a HUGE amount of the United States fresh and salt water will be poisoned as a direct result of actions of President Obama?

Not sure what solution will end up being to deep water Horizon, but I serously question leaving this in the hands of some washed up looking Coast guard admiral and BP, in my opinion BP should have been closed down, other oil companies involved in drilling multiple offset wells and everything should have been done including getting Super tankers to the gulf before Hurricane Season hit to collect all the oil and not use dispersants to hide it under the surface with Keven Costner's technology deployed on the Supertankes and barges along the coast and this mess should have been fixed by now. August is too late. We are bound to have at least one Cat 2 Hurricane enter the Gulf imo by August and that will throw the dispersants and oil everywhere... meanwhile don't do swimming along the coast for a while, much of the food of Bull Sharks and other predetors is being destroyed and attacks on people are bound to increase soon.

One other thought, after backing BP has led to the Gulf being poisoned, anyone notice Obama is not stopping there and now is lobbying for Nuclear near some very important rivers and streams and lakes... if more lax control over these areas somehow were to result in a Nuclear accident, whether similar to a melt down that almost happend along the Columbia river due to nuclear waste going craxy or at a plant or through bad discharges into water supply.... Obama and Salzar could do down in history for single handidly destroying more water related resources than all other peoples have caused in the history of the World.




Quoting gator23:

I agree with you there. But he was talking about now.


1614. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


I see some possible mid-level rotation as well, but the tropical wave axis is well off to the west of the Convection. Interesting to me is that the convection as a whole is not traveling westward following the surface feature tonight, which hasn't happened before. This either means the system is being hopelessly sheared to pieces, or else the wave axis has weakened and a new trough is forming farther east. Either way, significant development is not likely tonight, and we'll just have to see how it looks tomorrow.
ok thanks
There is nothing in the tropics that will form in the next 3 days over the carribean, Atlantic and the GOM.
1617. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Puerto Rico radar does support the possibility of a new low-mid level trough forming to the southwest of the island.


there you go, and I'm going to get soaked -.-
I want my blue skies back :(
LOL
1601. Grothar 10:20 PM PDT on June 19, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:



old



Are you calling me old? LOL



nop
system has some good convergence and divergrnce Link
1620. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


I see some possible mid-level rotation as well, but the tropical wave axis is well off to the west of the Convection. Interesting to me is that the convection as a whole is not traveling westward following the surface feature tonight, which hasn't happened before. This either means the system is being hopelessly sheared to pieces, or else the wave axis has weakened and a new trough is forming farther east. Either way, significant development is not likely tonight, and we'll just have to see how it looks tomorrow.


That is very evident here. You can see how far the convective mass is from the circulation. The shear has to be strong. Cloud tops are much weaker, too. And this isn't old, it it only 2 minutes ago.



1621. Levi32
850mb Vorticity has greatly weakened and become disorganized over the last 6 hours. This also means that either the system has become undefined and hopelessly sheared, or else a new trough is about to form farther east.

1622. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
850mb Vorticity has greatly weakened and become disorganized over the last 6 hours. This also means that either the system has become undefined and hopelessly sheared, or else a new trough is about to form farther east.

What doea the trough farther E mean?
1623. xcool
if dnot have storm july pre season will be a bust
1624. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:
1601. Grothar 10:20 PM PDT on June 19, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:



old



Are you calling me old? LOL



nop


I knew you weren't Taz, Just joking with you.
Quoting btwntx08:
system has some good convergence and divergrnce Link


That'll get you convection, but it won't get you organization -- not with all this shear.
1626. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
850mb Vorticity has greatly weakened and become disorganized over the last 6 hours. This also means that either the system has become undefined and hopelessly sheared, or else a new trough is about to form farther east.



In other words the Original 92L has passed away?
as I said I will wait
even thou the image is from 00Z the vort just can't disapear like that it will have to take atleast 2-4 frames. a few days a go I think it was StormwatcherCI that had pointed out that the vort was taking shape of a lima bean but on this vort map that is not shown onlt hand a weak small vort near St tommas and where did the COC ended up being at right at the botom part of that lima bean


notice the vort is quite strong and look to be south if DR
1628. xcool
JLPR2 na
1629. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:


In other words the Original 92L has passed away?
If something remerges farther E, I hope we dont have to call it 92L!
Quoting btwntx08:
system has some good convergence and divergrnce Link

notice shear decreasing too to me its only 25 kt now
1631. JLPR2
Quoting scott39:
If something remerges farther E, I hope we dont have to call it 92L!
haha! yeah -.-
1632. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
What doea the trough farther E mean?


It means a new trough east of where the tropical wave axis is, which is continuing westward. This trough would be where you were observing rotation on satellite imagery. If that does happen then 92L still has hope, but if it really has become this disorganized and the wave axis has become this ill-defined, then that really hurts its chances for development down the road. We can't proclaim it dead though....as long as those thunderstorms are going up then it has the potential to cause mischief.

We'll know in the morning what has really happened here.
Hey Y'all. Just remember...Don't shoot the messanger. :)

1634. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:


In other words the Original 92L has passed away?


No, even if it is this disorganized it is not dead.
Quoting btwntx08:

notice shear decreasing too to me its only 25 kt now


"Only"? :P

I know what you meant, though. lol
1636. xcool
CMC
I have to throw it out the window LOL
1637. xcool
WIND SHEAR 20 TO 25 K
1638. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


No, even if it is this disorganized it is not dead.


not dead, dead, but the old circulation we saw south of DR, that is gone, right?
1639. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hey Y'all. Just remember...Don't shoot the messanger. :)



LOL....so after the CMC took 92L into Mexico for two straight days of model runs, it suddenly decides to go back to that? Funny....thanks for posting that. I'm currently without any of my bookmarks at the moment.
1640. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


It means a new trough east of where the tropical wave axis is, which is continuing westward. This trough would be where you were observing rotation on satellite imagery. If that does happen then 92L still has hope, but if it really has become this disorganized and the wave axis has become this ill-defined, then that really hurts its chances for development down the road. We can't proclaim it dead though....as long as those thunderstorms are going up then it has the potential to cause mischief.

We'll know in the morning what has really happened here.
Thanks
1641. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
CMC
I have to throw it out the window LOL


LOL! how many windows do you have there? XD
1642. xcool
JLPR2 99 LOL
1643. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:


not dead, dead, but the old circulation we saw south of DR, that is gone, right?


No see this isn't a classic COC thing anymore....it degenerated into a tropical wave which will continue westward without fully dissipating, with or without convection. That wave axis is currently south of the big pointy southern tip of the Dominican Republic, well west of the convection mass.
Quoting JLPR2:


In other words the Original 92L has passed away?
yes since this morning as an open wave now just convection within wave i have a centre point of opposing convection near 16n/66w
1645. xcool
OH YEAH ROB PAY FOR windows TO LMAO
Could someone provide me with the Floater link please? I'm on my Mom's computer and don't have any of my links.
According to Orca I am like a 70 year old at times
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Quoting Levi32:


LOL....so after the CMC took 92L into Mexico for two straight days of model runs, it suddenly decides to go back to that? Funny....thanks for posting that. I'm currently without any of my bookmarks at the moment.


Lol. You're welcome. I hope that doesn't happen. It still has a storm in the west GOM at 240. But not as strong. Like I said this morning I still don't see what they're seeing other than 92l.



000
ABNT20 KNHC 200542
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Interesting.
Quoting KimberlyB:
Could someone provide me with the Floater link please? I'm on my Mom's computer and don't have any of my links.

Your moms computer must be rather strong or your are rather light weight...

(sorry, had to do it. Being father's day, I'm allow the corny jokes)
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Only"? :P

I know what you meant, though. lol

well to make it better its in the 25-30 kt range and slowly decreasing
i personally think this thing will never develop. but who knows.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Your moms computer must be rather strong or your are rather light weight...

(sorry, had to do it. Being father's day, I'm allow the corny jokes)


lol - I'm so tired that I had to read that about 4 times before I got it. ;)
1655. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200542
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
The wild toad ride!
off to bed
1657. xcool
nhc call 92L POOF
25 kt is barely unfavorable lol
Quoting wfyweather:
i personally think this thing will never develop. but who knows.


Prospects aren't great, that's for sure, even long-term.
1660. Levi32
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper winds south of Puerto Rico have greatly slowed during the course of the day. Should a new surface trough reform farther east, the environment would be much more favorable for organization.

The chances of the trough reforming, however, are low, but cannot be discounted.
Quoting KimberlyB:


lol - I'm so tired that I had to read that about 4 times before I got it. ;)

I see no one gave you any link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
All floaters
Quoting btwntx08:

well to make it better its in the 25-30 kt range and slowly decreasing


Oh I know. I was just poking fun at the word "only" in your post, since 25 kt is still much too high to allow development.

Still, I knew what you meant. Shear is clearly decreasing, since the system has passed through the core of the TUTT.
1663. xcool
btwntx08 how about 15k rob .lol
Quoting atmoaggie:

I see no one gave you any link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
All floaters


Thanks much! That was exactly what I was looking for.
zack i apologize about what happen it was a misunderstanding it was at someone not the system also im not bad forecaster if i did i wouldve knew which im not
Quoting KimberlyB:


Thanks much! That was exactly what I was looking for.

And it took you four times to get it because I am so tired I couldn't type it right.
G'Nite, all.
1667. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


No see this isn't a classic COC thing anymore....it degenerated into a tropical wave which will continue westward without fully dissipating, with or without convection. That wave axis is currently south of the big pointy southern tip of the Dominican Republic, well west of the convection mass.


ah I see

Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 99 LOL


ha! LOL!
1668. scott39
92L ,Please go ahead and kill yourself tonight, and run what you have left over the mountains. Im sick of you, its time to die!!
1669. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper winds south of Puerto Rico have greatly slowed during the course of the day. Should a new surface trough reform farther east, the environment would be much more favorable for organization.

The chances of the trough reforming, however, are low, but cannot be discounted.


Considering we are talking about persistent 92L we better keep an eye for a new through
XD
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 how about 15k rob .lol

its getting there its off to the south of 92L
Quoting Levi32:
850mb Vorticity has greatly weakened and become disorganized over the last 6 hours. This also means that either the system has become undefined and hopelessly sheared, or else a new trough is about to form farther east.



yea I think 92L may finally be giving up
Look around 80 W 16-17 N on disturbance off northern coast of Panama... does that look like a true "eye" of a storm? Frame starts off with what appears similar to human eye and then gets covered by cloud cover.
Link
1673. scott39
Lets all chant Die Die Die
well even if it is at 0% now we should still watch it for possible redevelopment down the road it is coming into favered conditions so redevelopment of a trough or low should not be discounted it is just that it seem to be on the low side of the prob. line but may increase
92L is not dead untill every thing is gone
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea I think 92L may finally be giving up

not quite will have to know what it looks in the morning
1676. xcool
92L hmm
scott39 has gone to the dark side now lol
1678. Relix
Lots of rain to the south of PR, but it seems there's no way that will reach the island.
1679. xcool
lmao
1680. scott39
Quoting btwntx08:
scott39 has gone to the dark side now lol
LOL, Not really, its just my patience is running out! Either @$#@ or get off the pot 92L. LOL
Quoting btwntx08:
scott39 has gone to the dark side now lol


dark side? cuz he wants 92L to die out?


Didnt know we were rooting for 92L like it was some sort of superhero
Quoting scott39:
LOL, Not really, its just my patience is running out! Either @$#@ or get off the pot 92L. LOL

ok i havent give up hope yet lol
1683. xcool
1684. Levi32
Didn't notice but CIMSS actually shows a weak 700mb vort max just southwest of Puerto Rico, which would support the formation of a mid-level trough which looks possible on satellite imagery and radar.

1685. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Didn't notice but CIMSS actually shows a weak 700mb vort max just southwest of Puerto Rico.

So that supports your trough theory?
1686. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

ok i havent give up hope yet lol


Join the dark side *Darth Vader voice*
LOL!
Quoting Hurricanes101:


dark side? cuz he wants 92L to die out?


Didnt know we were rooting for 92L like it was some sort of superhero

no! we're just rooting for scott39 to shave his back. lol!
1688. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
So that supports your trough theory?


It would....but we'll have to see if it persists. It has actually been there all day, but has remained stationary while the surface vort max moves off to the west. This means the system is decoupling, which will either kill it or provide it with the oppertunity to reform to the east under the mid-level feature.
1689. scott39
Quoting sarahjola:

no! we're just rooting for scott39 to shave his back. lol!
My wife has the wax strips ready! OCHHHH
which could build down to the surface later Levi32
1691. Levi32
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
which could build down to the surface later Levi32


Possibly....would be hard to do though.
Quoting Levi32:


It would....but we'll have to see if it persists. It has actually been there all day, but has remained stationary while the surface vort max moves off to the west. This means the system is decoupling, which will either kill it or provide it with the oppertunity to reform to the east under the mid-level feature.

So it's "do or die" time for 92L? This should be interesting, then.
1693. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


It would....but we'll have to see if it persists. It has actually been there all day, but has remained stationary while the surface vort max moves off to the west. This means the system is decoupling, which will either kill it or provide it with the oppertunity to reform to the east under the mid-level feature.
Man, If 92L does that, It has to be the most resiliant Invest ever!
Quoting scott39:
My wife has the wax strips ready! OCHHHH
take it one step further and let her do a bikini wax:) it is summer you know.
Quoting sarahjola:
take it one step further and let her do a bikini wax:) it is summer you know.


wow thanks for those images

so much for going to bed lol
1696. JLPR2
Quoting sarahjola:
take it one step further and let her do a bikini wax:) it is summer you know.


haha! now I'll have nightmares -.-
1697. Levi32
Another interesting possibility that an eastward reformation would open up, is the tropical wave just east of the windwards possibly getting involved in the situation. It is fast approaching 92L's territory.



1698. scott39
Quoting sarahjola:
take it one step further and let her do a bikini wax:) it is summer you know.
Quoting sarahjola:
take it one step further and let her do a bikini wax:) it is summer you know.
Thats gettin a little too close!!
Quoting scott39:
Thats gettin a little too close!!

lol! yeah ya right.
1700. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Another interesting possibility that an eastward reformation would open up is the tropical wave just east of the windwards getting involved in the situation. It is fast approaching 92L's territory.



Levi, I think your on to something!
Quoting Levi32:
Another interesting possibility that an eastward reformation would open up is the tropical wave just east of the windwards getting involved in the situation. It is fast approaching 92L's territory.




Yes, I noticed as soon as a tiny part of the southern portion of 92L touched what is coming up behind it there was a big lift and now it appears that they may be "merging" in some way?
1702. Levi32
Quoting StormGoddess:

Yes, I noticed as soon as a tiny part of the southern portion of 92L touched what is coming up behind it there was a big lift and now it appears that they may be "merging" in some way?


Well, the wave approaching the Windwards is pretty far south compared to 92L, but it's possible it might have some influence on 92L's surface structure if it is allowed to catch up to it. If 92L really is reforming to the east at the mid-levels, that would stall it out long enough to allow this wave to catch up.
1703. xcool
:0
Quoting Levi32:


Well, the wave approaching the Windwards is pretty far south compared to 92L, but it's possible it might have some influence on 92L's surface structure if it is allowed to catch up to it. If 92L really is reforming to the east at the mid-levels, that would stall it out long enough to allow this wave to catch up.


and for shear to decrease even more
1705. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and for shear to decrease even more


That too. 92L's quite a bugger isn't it lol.
Quoting Levi32:


That too. 92L's quite a bugger isn't it lol.


has more tricks than Penn and Teller

in fact that is what I am calling it lol

is ecmwf out yet scott
Quoting Levi32:


Well, the wave approaching the Windwards is pretty far south compared to 92L, but it's possible it might have some influence on 92L's surface structure if it is allowed to catch up to it. If 92L really is reforming to the east at the mid-levels, that would stall it out long enough to allow this wave to catch up.

Thanks for the info, Levi.
1709. xcool
not yet
ok it will be interesting to see
1711. xcool
yet
1712. Levi32
ASCAT from 2:30z, 4 hours old....shows 92L's tropical wave axis south of Hispaniola, well to the west of where the action is right now.

1713. xcool
4 hr olddam
1714. Levi32
And ASCAT from 0z....tropical wave just southeast of Barbados (far left).

1715. xcool


Quoting xcool:
4 hr olddam

lol
Quoting wfyweather:
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



LOL.. just why write about it then? NHC has been blobcasting for the past 3 days. It has no chance and didn't 3 days ago either. And this is coming from a blobcaster.
Hello everyone.I see 92l is still being 92L.Just not wanting to quit is he?Just got in from work and wanted to see what it was doing.Tried to read all posts but am too tired.When you get older the old eyes go.LOL!!!!!!
ecmwf should be coming out very shortly
1720. xcool
lol
Ok, well, my forecast for 92L at the moment is:
1. He will keel over from exhaustion.
2. Tomorrow or the next day he will be Alex.
I'm hoping for #1.
But not sure about it.
Anyways, night all. :)
Photobucket
1722. xcool
Link

ecwm here
1723. xcool
wowwwwwwwwww ecmwf omg
1724. xcool
ECM ON 92L WOW ???
1725. xcool


:o :o :o
1727. xcool
I'M WAIT ON FREE SITE TOO
1728. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
wowwwwwwwwww ecmwf omg


That's pretty cool....interaction of 3 different things to form a storm in the western Caribbean.....Invest 92L, the tropical wave currently east of the windwards, and the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean.
1729. xcool


Quoting xcool:
ECM ON 92L WOW ???


That tropical cyclone that shows up in the western Gulf of Mexico near the end of run isn't 92L -- it's probably the central Caribbean tropical depression that the NOGAPS was forecasting would develop by this Friday. That system likely originates from a tropical wave currently along 40W, given the timing on both the NOGAPS and ECMWF.

92L, on the ECMWF, is the large moisture maximum observed in the central and western Gulf by day four.
1731. Levi32
Quoting xcool:




That image is still from the previous run. We're only out to 144 hours on tonight's run.
Hey Levi does that show a 1004mb low in the Western GOM? If so that means trouble for Texas.Oh my goodness.
regarding Levi's analysis: isn't this how Katrina formed up: two essentially dead tropical waves circulating around one another in the Bahamas? Neither of them Invest 10 and Invest 12 having much of a chance to do anything after surviving punishing shear suddenly found themselves in a pocket of relatively low shear over the Bahamas and they started rotating around one another and formed up a TD which in 6 hhours formed into a TS which became a hurricane within a day, travelled over the Everglades which minimized the strength loss, and then emerged over the gulf loop under a HUGE high and almost no shear to speak of, underwent an eyewall replacement cycle over that loop where it was pumped with wet, hot, moist air when it should've been denied that and re-emerged the scourge of NOLA and had a storm surge of 23 feet and winds of 213 at it's highest - which broke down as it went north but the surge remained and that's all that counted in a place where the city was below sea level!
1734. xcool
SHI.THANKS.


1735. xcool
first named storm between JUNE 21 TO JUNE 30

I'M CALL IT HERE


MJO
& light shear
1736. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


That tropical cyclone that shows up in the western Gulf of Mexico near the end of run isn't 92L -- it's probably the central Caribbean tropical depression that the NOGAPS was forecasting would develop by this Friday. That system likely originates from a tropical wave currently along 40W, given the timing on both the NOGAPS and ECMWF.

92L, on the ECMWF, is the large moisture maximum observed in the central and western Gulf by day four.


Kind of helps set it up though, and if 92L's remnant mid-level energy remains as far behind to the east of the tropical wave axis as it is now, then it will get caught up in the mess in the western Caribbean.
EP, 03, 2010062006, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1118W, 45, 997, TS

Blas down to 50mph
Quoting highndry1:
regarding Levi's analysis: isn't this how Katrina formed up: two essentially dead tropical waves circulating around one another in the Bahamas? Neither of them Invest 10 and Invest 12 having much of a chance to do anything after surviving punishing shear suddenly found themselves in a pocket of relatively low shear over the Bahamas and they started rotating around one another and formed up a TD which in 6 hhours formed into a TS which became a hurricane within a day, travelled over the Everglades which minimized the strength loss, and then emerged over the gulf loop under a HUGE high and almost no shear to speak of, underwent an eyewall replacement cycle over that loop where it was pumped with wet, hot, moist air when it should've been denied that and re-emerged the scourge of NOLA and had a storm surge of 23 feet and winds of 213 at it's highest - which broke down as it went north but the surge remained and that's all that counted in a place where the city was below sea level!


Close, but no cigar. Katrina formed from a complex interaction of a single tropical wave, the remnant mid-level circulation of former Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper-level low (or maybe it was an upper-level trough? Can't remember atm).

EDIT: It should be noted that he remnant mid-level circulation of TD10 could certainly have been a tropical wave by that point, which would validate your earlier claim of Katrina developing from the interaction of two tropical waves. However, it could also have been a surface trough.
P, 04, 2010062006, , BEST, 0, 121N, 990W, 60, 992, TS

Celia close to Hurricane strength


168 hours or 7 days
1741. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


Close, but no cigar. Katrina formed from a complex interaction of a single tropical wave, the remnant mid-level circulation of former Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper-level low (or maybe it was an upper-level trough? Can't remember atm).


Yeah, wasn't two tropical waves doing fuji wara, that much I know.
1742. xcool
GUESS 92l Not Dead After All.wow
Quoting xcool:



oh no lol
1744. xcool
Hurricanes101 thanks.
Quoting xcool:
GUESS 92l Not Dead After All.wow


I am fairly certain it is not developing 92L

1746. xcool
btwntx08 look out bigfoot come for your
1747. xcool
Hurricanes101 talk about ecmwf


ECMWF shows a decent system here, 10 days
Quoting Levi32:


Kind of helps set it up though, and if 92L's remnant energy remains as far behind to the east of the tropical wave axis as it is now, then it will get caught up in the mess in the western Caribbean.


True enough.
1750. Levi32
Quoting xcool:
GUESS 92l Not Dead After All.wow


Maybe, maybe not. 92L would likely only play a minor part in the development of that system if the ECMWF is right. Most of the energy will come from the monsoon trough and the wave approaching the windwards.
1751. xcool
omg f---- look out rob he come for you sir
1752. gator23
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ECMWF shows a decent system here


i will say this, anything past 7 days can be thrown out the window. And without a center or circulation you should not anticipate this scenario. What this IS showing us is that conditions will be ripe for development beginning next week.
1753. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ECMWF shows a decent system here, 10 days


A few consistent runs now....something to watch for. There will be a lot of energy in that area so it's definitely possible.
1754. xcool


i made in may.
1755. xcool
20 % on ECMWF rigth now. models can change back & forward at time.
Quoting xcool:
omg f---- look out rob he come for you sir

yea if it holds true i may get to deal with the first storm of the season
My friend who I was entertaining just left. Finally... I dunno why I'm telling you guys but i'm kinda "awesome" right now if you know what I mean.
1758. gator23
Quoting xcool:
20 % on ECMWF rigth now. models can change back & forward at time.

between 5-10 percent. again no center to track but it is something that may happen
1759. xcool
btwntx08 TIME WILL TELL
Quoting ElConando:
My friend who I was entertaining just left. Finally... I dunno why I'm telling you guys but i'm kinda "awesome" right now if you know what I mean.


That's what she said.
1761. xcool
gator23 i agree
Quoting gator23:

between 5-10 percent. again no center to track but it is something that may happen


ECMWF has been very consistent with this, I would say it merits close attention
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ECMWF has been very consistent with this, I would say it merits close attention


ECMWF or not, anything beyond seven days is garbage.
1765. gator23
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ECMWF has been very consistent with this, I would say it merits close attention


absolutely, you were spot on. I just wanted to point out to our newer bloggers to not use the ECWMF for track forecasting purposes
1766. Levi32
Mid-level cyclonic turning is very evident southwest of Puerto Rico on radar.

Quoting KoritheMan:


That's what she said.

lol
well, whatever, I'm going to bed. Thought I'd throw that one out for discussion. Anyway, happy pop's day for all the dads out there!

BTW - I never got an opinion one way or the other about my query about whether hurricanes would be affected one way or the other regarding all the volatile hydrocarbons in the gulf. Anyone got any good ideas?
Quoting KoritheMan:


ECMWF or not, anything beyond seven days is garbage.


it develops the system before 7 days though, and has done so for 3 days now, which to me increases the chances of it being right

I also think it is pretty close to the track too
1770. xcool
92L MAKE COME BACK YOU DRITY DOGGG WOOF
1771. gator23
Quoting highndry1:
well, whatever, I'm going to bed. Thought I'd throw that one out for discussion. Anyway, happy pop's day for all the dads out there!

BTW - I never got an opinion one way or the other about my query about whether hurricanes would be affected one way or the other regarding all the volatile hydrocarbons in the gulf. Anyone got any good ideas?

unaffected
1772. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


ECMWF or not, anything beyond seven days is garbage.


Even 24 hours isn't gospel....the point is to look for hints on the models. 7+ days out or not (and this starts in 4 on the Euro), we can already tell that there will be a buildup of energy in the central-western Caribbean due to 92L, the wave approaching the windwards, and the monsoon trough which is active near Panama. Once these things build up their collective heat in the area, pressures will lower and mischief will be possible. So, logically, we should already be watching this area, model support or no model support.
Quoting highndry1:
well, whatever, I'm going to bed. Thought I'd throw that one out for discussion. Anyway, happy pop's day for all the dads out there!

BTW - I never got an opinion one way or the other about my query about whether hurricanes would be affected one way or the other regarding all the volatile hydrocarbons in the gulf. Anyone got any good ideas?


Hurricanes are not going to be appreciably affected by the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico. Any impact on them would be negligible at best.
1774. xcool
Hurricanes101 .TIME WILL TELL.
Quoting Levi32:


Even 24 hours isn't gospel....the point is to look for hints on the models. 7+ days out or not (and this starts in 4 on the Euro), we can already tell that there will be a buildup of energy in the central-western Caribbean due to 92L, the wave approaching the windwards, and the monsoon trough which is active near Panama. Once these things build up their collective heat in the area, pressures will lower and mischief will be possible. So, logically, we should already be watching this area, model support or no model support.


I am aware of and agree with this, but I was talking about the system being in that exact spot (the western Gulf), at that exact intensity, at that exact moment, etc. We cannot accurately predict that.
ok time for bed, later everyone
Quoting KoritheMan:


I am aware of and agree with this, but I was talking about the system being in that exact spot (the western Gulf), at that exact intensity, at that exact moment, etc. We cannot accurately predict that.


I think anyone would agree with that, but that isnt the purpose of showing what the model is predicting that far out; it is just one of several possibilities

It is the consistency in which the ECMWF has developed and moved the system that caught my eye


Anyway see you all tomorrow
1778. Levi32
Quoting highndry1:
well, whatever, I'm going to bed. Thought I'd throw that one out for discussion. Anyway, happy pop's day for all the dads out there!

BTW - I never got an opinion one way or the other about my query about whether hurricanes would be affected one way or the other regarding all the volatile hydrocarbons in the gulf. Anyone got any good ideas?


It would be the hurricanes affecting the oil slick, not so much the oil slick affecting the hurricanes. Any effect by the oil on a hurricane would be negligible.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think anyone would agree with that, but that isnt the purpose of showing what the model is predicting that far out; it is just one of several possibilities

It is the consistency in which the ECMWF has developed and moved the system that caught my eye


Anyway see you all tomorrow


Yep.

Good night.
Celia likely to be upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory:



The banding eye feature has been fairly persistent over the last six hours.
1781. xcool
I HOPE gfs give some hope too
1782. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


I am aware of and agree with this, but I was talking about the system being in that exact spot (the western Gulf), at that exact intensity, at that exact moment, etc. We cannot accurately predict that.


I wasn't even thinking about that....first we have to get it to develop.
1783. Levi32
Night 101.
1784. xcool
first we need Invest
Well goodnight all.Hope 92L will make up its mind in the morning. Have a blessed night all.
1786. xcool


hmmmm
1788. xcool
cmc & ecmw .need gfs
Quoting Levi32:


It would be the hurricanes affecting the oil slick, not so much the oil slick affecting the hurricanes. Any effect by the oil on a hurricane would be negligible.


what about when a storm surge causes oil to come on HWY 90 (in Ms) and of course, it will have to hit the casino before it gets on HWY 90.............more ppl out of jobs

the whole oil issue is a mess and it's only gonna get worse, not trying to be a doomcaster, just trying to be realistic
Quoting KoritheMan:
Celia likely to be upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory:



The banding eye feature has been fairly persistent over the last six hours.


About 6 hours to be a Hurricane ADT 53kts WIND Analysis 60kts 994MB. Still chance to be a Major depends of track but condictions are favorable.
yea but gfs has been off lately
Quoting KoritheMan:


I am aware of and agree with this, but I was talking about the system being in that exact spot (the western Gulf), at that exact intensity, at that exact moment, etc. We cannot accurately predict that.

if you could do that you would be like Bill Gates rich
1793. xcool
yep poor gfs
that model is very active looking for next weekend..
ok im off too c u all in the morning good night
1796. Levi32
Shear is dropping over an intensifying 700mb vort max southwest of Puerto Rico. I believe 92L is reforming in this area, at least in the mid-levels. The low-levels may follow later. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Night all.



1797. xcool
bye all ..
The 850 vort shows the strongest twist just on the N side of Hispaniola. Though not building as quick, you can see it on the islands land obs & sat. The spot of lower shear in the southern Bahamas just moved a little closer too. A competitor for the low to mid level circulation Levi mentioned.



National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
9:00 AM UTC June 20 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Celia (994 hPa) located at 12.0N 99.4W or 300 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 11.7N 101.7W - 75 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-1)
48 HRS: 11.8N 104.0W - 85 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
72 HRS: 12.0N 106.7W - 95 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHILE
AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-70 KT. THE ATTEMPTS AT EYE
FORMATION SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THESE
ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT YET PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY CALLING CELIA A HURRICANE.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS (EP032010)
9:00 AM UTC June 20 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Blas (1000 hPa) located at 17.5N 112.3W or 350 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 115.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 18.0N 119.6W - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
72 HRS: 17.2N 123.5W - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200855
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED TO 60 KT.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER
CELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A
BIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED...
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO
PREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60
HOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL
FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
FASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.0N 99.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Just skimmed through the posts. But I agree to be worried because both the CMC and Euro are showing the same thing over and over. When
I saw the Euro I can't exactly say on here what I said. But you get the picture. Of course we don't know what will happen yet. But to me it is worrying. The EURO hasn't seemed to have changed since yesterday. The CMC while still showing a low in the western GOM has changed its track in that what it showed yesterday with the 1st storm going to tx, now it shows that 1 going to Fl. So I assume the track of the second one would follow the 1st. Looked like they are seeing a trough then that the Euro didn't. We'll see. I hope they drop everything the next run. But I have to say it has my attention.
Or maybe I was wrong again. Lol. Imagine that. Anyway the EURO may be seeing a trough too as their NAO forecast is going more positive at that time.

2010062000z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
NAO value for forecast hour 000: -25.8281269
NAO value for forecast hour 024: 23.9010963
NAO value for forecast hour 048: 38.3533478
NAO value for forecast hour 072: 28.6972313
NAO value for forecast hour 096: 6.8412571
NAO value for forecast hour 120: -21.1550903
NAO value for forecast hour 144: -32.9503746
NAO value for forecast hour 168: 13.5486012
NAO value for forecast hour 192: 29.0591087
NAO value for forecast hour 216: 30.474041
NAO value for forecast hour 240: 26.4637241
NAO value for Day 1-5: 15.3275681
NAO value for Day 6-10: 13.3190203
The tropical wave is down to a 0% of forming in the next 48hs. That is exciting, I've never seen them go so low and still have a yellow blob over the area...
Quoting partylight:
The tropical wave is down to a 0% of forming in the next 48hs. That is exciting, I've never seen them go so low and still have a yellow blob over the area...


They may as well highlight every area of clouds in the basin. lol
Quoting partylight:
The tropical wave is down to a 0% of forming in the next 48hs. That is exciting, I've never seen them go so low and still have a yellow blob over the area...


I find that weird also that they circle it with a 0% chance. Maybe they're just getting the jitters. I dunno. But that's an interesting avatar you've got there, :)
.
Quoting Levi32:


That's pretty cool....interaction of 3 different things to form a storm in the western Caribbean.....Invest 92L, the tropical wave currently east of the windwards, and the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean.


I just noticed that the NOGAPS doesn't look as far out as it did. The CMC has a bunch of stuff spinning around too. Lol. Is it just me or is Mother Nature showing us stuff that we've never seen before? It's been interesting if nothing else so far. :)
Good post Proserpina, and good morning all...

Whatever you don't look at the Euro and Canadian models this morning as hints of a TS/Hurricane in the eastern gulf (Canadian) western gulf (Euro) next weekend.
THe models are picking up on the wave near Trinidad not 92L. NAM shows a robust 92L moving into S FL on WED.
1815. IKE
Speaking of zero.....

0-0-0 rocks on!



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




Speaking of zero.....

0-0-0 rocks on!


Hey IKE I know far off but the models are getting interesting this morning.
Quoting IKE:
Speaking of zero.....

0-0-0 rocks on!



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


For our sake IKE I hope the Canadian doesn't pan out or were in trouble with all this oil in place.
1819. IKE
The GFS, which the last few runs until the 18Z run yesterday, had latched on to a GOM system. Since 18Z yesterday it's dropped it.

ECMWF now latches on to one heading it toward southern Texas.

CMC doesn't show much through 144 hours. Here's the last frame...




NOGAPS doesn't show much either...Link

06/20/2010 11:34AM 4,477 invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
1821. WxLogic
Good Morning,

ECMWF sure looking more active after each run. Does appear it wants to break off some energy from the Colombian heat low and develop it in the extreme SW Caribbean before lifting it N towards a weakness in the E Gulf and FL, before this weakness is filled and then the system moved NW to W by the building high.

Of course too early to tell but sure looks like things should start heating up between Tue. and Wed.
1822. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06/20/2010 11:34AM 4,477 invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren


RIP 92L.

0-0-0....
1824. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
back to the promise of "next week"


And that's what this season has been since 90L in May. This model latches on to something....then it drops it and another one does.

I've got plenty of crow coming to me if June winds up a blank, which is 257 hours from happening.

Still don't see how this season gets 23 storms. UKMET high total was 27. I can see 18/19 as a total.
1825. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06/20/2010 11:34AM 4,477 invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren


Deserved to be awarded TD status for trying so hard.
I'm liking this Synoptic map of the NWPac. I hope it stays this way most of the season.
Quoting IKE:
The GFS, which the last few runs until the 18Z run yesterday, had latched on to a GOM system. Since 18Z yesterday it's dropped it.

ECMWF now latches on to one heading it toward southern Texas.

CMC doesn't show much through 144 hours. Here's the last frame...




NOGAPS doesn't show much either...Link



The CMC blows up one hell of a storm in the eastern gulf and brings it ashore along the FL Panhandle. Look past 144 hours IKE.Or don't because the CMC brings it at you as a hurricane.
Good Morning

Tropical Update
I really do feel like 92L may just hold on for the next 3 days and aggravate oil spill conditions in the gulf... its a fiesty lil' booger.... it may not ever be classified as a "system", but its got rain and gusty winds...
1830. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


The CMC blows up one hell of a storm in the eastern gulf and brings it ashore along the FL Panhandle. Look past 144 hours IKE.Or don't because the CMC brings it at you as a hurricane.


Hopefully it's wrong.

Have a good morning. Gotta finish mowing my yard/sweating!
Quoting Jeff9641:


The CMC blows up one hell of a storm in the eastern gulf and brings it ashore along the FL Panhandle. Look past 144 hours IKE.Or don't because the CMC brings it at you as a hurricane.


The CMC blows up everything that far out. I think 2 years ago it developed about 50 major hurricanes.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


The CMC blows up everything that far out. I think 2 years ago it developed about 50 major hurricanes.


It's blown up everything this year. But Euro is latching on to something to so we will see over the next few days. Right now there is nothing that will develope for atleast 3 to 5 days.
Hello, haven't posted a lot for a long time.
Personally, I think 92L will be a tropical cyclone in the GOM. What do you guys think?
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Tropical Update
Good morning and hope you are feeling better.
REALLY good to see you on Weather456, I hope you are feeling better, also I'm glad things look slow for a few days in terms of tc development, so you can get some rest.
CRS
Near "0%chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the next 48hours" covered the period until Tuesday morning. I don't know of any recent model that had a TC popping up before Wednesday.
ECMWF has been becoming rather consistent with some time of storm forming in the Caribbean and moving into the GOM. It forms this system in 5 days.
WRF model shows two W. Caribbean lows on Wednesday, both less than 1008mb.

One must be remnants of 92L near the Cozumel area.

WRF Model two caribbean lows
1839. cg2916
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06/20/2010 11:34AM 4,477 invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren


RIP 92L... for now.
Quoting IKE:
The GFS, which the last few runs until the 18Z run yesterday, had latched on to a GOM system. Since 18Z yesterday it's dropped it.

ECMWF now latches on to one heading it toward southern Texas.

CMC doesn't show much through 144 hours. Here's the last frame...




NOGAPS doesn't show much either...Link



Well, in the EPAC there's Hurricane Celia...
1841. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Tropical Update


Thanks. Glad you are feeling better!
1843. txjac
Hey weather456, glad to see you back and hope that you are feeling much better. Take it easy right now when you can ..you're missed much
1844. cg2916
Friends, we are gathered here today to remember a noble invest, 92L.

This invest encountered shear, dry air, and some cool SSTs, but still managed to shortly make it to depression status for 4 hours.

Let us have a moment of silence for 92L.
1845. cg2916
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Or maybe I was wrong again. Lol. Imagine that. Anyway the EURO may be seeing a trough too as their NAO forecast is going more positive at that time.

2010062000z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
NAO value for forecast hour 000: -25.8281269
NAO value for forecast hour 024: 23.9010963
NAO value for forecast hour 048: 38.3533478
NAO value for forecast hour 072: 28.6972313
NAO value for forecast hour 096: 6.8412571
NAO value for forecast hour 120: -21.1550903
NAO value for forecast hour 144: -32.9503746
NAO value for forecast hour 168: 13.5486012
NAO value for forecast hour 192: 29.0591087
NAO value for forecast hour 216: 30.474041
NAO value for forecast hour 240: 26.4637241
NAO value for Day 1-5: 15.3275681
NAO value for Day 6-10: 13.3190203


Actually, the CPC mean forecast is calling for negative NAO.
Is that a spin I see that just emerged off the coast of Africa?
1847. pottery
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........
Quoting cg2916:
Friends, we are gathered here today to remember a noble invest, 92L.

This invest encountered shear, dry air, and some cool SSTs, but still managed to shortly make it to depression status for 4 hours.

Let us have a moment of silence for 92L.

it's not dead yet, don't be so quick to write it off or it'll bite you on the butt
Quoting cg2916:
Friends, we are gathered here today to remember a noble invest, 92L.

This invest encountered shear, dry air, and some cool SSTs, but still managed to shortly make it to depression status for 4 hours.

Let us have a moment of silence for 92L.
92L just might pull another Lazarus so I wouldn't RIP just yet. LOL
This is a very tenacious system.
1850. Dakster
W456 - Feeling better?
Quoting Jeff9641:
THe models are picking up on the wave near Trinidad not 92L. NAM shows a robust 92L moving into S FL on WED.


Nooo, FL does NOT need any type of storm in JUNE!! Really don't need one at all during any portion of the season, but I think too many here in FL are not paying attention right now to the tropics. Most are set in the "routine" of the busy season for us being July, August and Sept. This is a most interesting beginning to the season that I have ever seen.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........
Same to you Pottery. Enjoy YOUR day.
Quoting cg2916:
Friends, we are gathered here today to remember a noble invest, 92L.

This invest encountered shear, dry air, and some cool SSTs, but still managed to shortly make it to depression status for 4 hours.

Let us have a moment of silence for 92L.


so it shall be written not
in the history books of time

lol

so long 92L bring forth 93l
1854. Dakster
Looks like the relief oil rig is getting ready to explode in the same fashion as the original one... Not good.
1855. 900MB
Given it's history, you'd almost expect 92L to rise again.
Quoting Dakster:
Looks like the relief oil rig is getting ready to explode in the same fashion as the original one... Not good.


Where are you getting that info?
1854:

What?

What's going on, what makes you say that?
1858. Dakster
www.herald.com

Front page.


Smoke, flames and a sense of urgency on relief rig in Gulf


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/19/1690182/smoke-flames-and-a-sense-of-urgency.html#ixzz0rOp4xnEa


1860. aquak9
dakster- they're burning off collected methane and oil, on other nearby boats

this has been going on for days

yes a sense of urgency but the relief well drilling boats are fine

we are in way too much pain
Can anybody help a kid out and tell me if that is a spin in the clouds off the coast of Africa at around 5 north?
Quoting Dakster:
www.herald.com

Front page.


Smoke, flames and a sense of urgency on relief rig in Gulf


Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/19/1690182/smoke-flames-and-a-sense-of-urgency.html#ixzz0rOp4xnEa




You should really read the article before posting bad information
1864. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........

Happy fathers day pottery
Have you checked out our new radar as yet?It poured here this morning as well.
1865. Dakster
Read the article... It talks about what is going on on the relief drilling sites... You see the boats watering down the fire coming form the two sites. Talking about shut downs, etc... Very dangerous - although the headline is a little misleading after I read the complete article.

This is not joke - it affects my livelihood as much as anyone else's on this blog.
Quoting Dakster:
Read the article... It talks about what is going on on the relief drilling sites... You see the boats watering down the fire coming form the two sites. Talking about shut downs, etc... Very dangerous - although the headline is a little misleading after I read the complete article.

This is not joke - it affects my livelihood as much as anyone else's on this blog.


Not watering down the fire, the spraying of water is done to keep the fumes down from the oil rising to the surface. It's to help protect the workers on the rigs.
Hey guys I see they have deactivated 92L but you guys must not stop looking at it because they have a way to just die like silent dead and then redevelop again so I will keep watching ex-92L for any redevelopments
1868. Dakster
Misleading headline... Along with the photo...

Along with the one that we just dumped over a million gallons of raw sewage into biscayne bay. Don't think this will be a good beach going day.

Area south east of 92L may end up having a better chance of development than 92L ever had. If it stays low for about the next day to avoid shear, then drift slightly north, it should be in business.
Quoting ImASaladTosser:
Can anybody help a kid out and tell me if that is a spin in the clouds off the coast of Africa at around 5 north?
its a emerging wave with a slight turning iam uploading the big picture there you can see it just give me a sec to upload it
Tampa AFD:

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO...THE DOMINANT MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. GFS
HAS SHIFTED THE FEATURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA
MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MEX POPS
HAVE DECREASED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LATEST BASICALLY SHOWS LESS THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30/40 POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LOW END SCATTERED 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS. ALSO...CANNOT DISCARD SOME ISOLATED LATE MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Obama would make a decent press secretary, 'cause he's so good at lying, but he's a terrible president.


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum.
1874. gator23
Quoting reedzone:


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum.

as much as I disagree with him on that I agree with you.
dont look now it looks like the E Pac is trying to spin up other one






i wounder if mode runs show any thing on it
1876. pottery
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........
Quoting DDR:

Happy fathers day pottery
Have you checked out our new radar as yet?It poured here this morning as well.

Thanks!
Just had a heavy shower here again.

Can you post a link to the Radar? I have not seen it...
Quoting gator23:

as much as I disagree with him on that I agree with you.


Haha, good one! Looks like they finally de-activated 92L, about time. Should start watching the WC soon. Things will light up with tropical activity soon.
1879. gator23
Quoting Orcasystems:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


ORCA how come your invest 92 L picutre shows a track? where did you get that?
talking about spin ups is some in trying too spin up off the NC coast?
1881. gator23
Quoting RecordSeason:
Obama would make a decent press secretary, 'cause he's so good at lying, but he's a terrible president.

and you would make a good troll since your so annoying.
Quoting pottery:

Can you post a link to the Radar? I have not seen it...


Nice...

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx


I had not seen that before.
Good Morning.
Quoting gator23:


ORCA how come your invest 92 L picutre shows a track? where did you get that?


I have about 5 different places I can get the model information from. One of the locations is still showing data. Its not unusual, just because the Invest has been deactivated.... does not mean the models are not still active.

P.S. back in 8 hours or so... I have tee times for 830 am :)
1884. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........
Thanks!
Just had a heavy shower here again.

Can you post a link to the Radar? I have not seen it...

Here you go,Trinidad radar...Link
1885. gator23
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Nooo, FL does NOT need any type of storm in JUNE!! Really don't need one at all during any portion of the season, but I think too many here in FL are not paying attention right now to the tropics. Most are set in the "routine" of the busy season for us being July, August and Sept. This is a most interesting beginning to the season that I have ever seen.

As per last night: at this stage do not use models for forecast track planning purposes. They are useful to show you that "something" is going down but without a LLC specific tracks are as hard to determine as what your having for lunch next Thursday.
Happy fathers day to all u dads out there. So I see 92l has been yanked from the tropical lineup.
1887. scott39
Goodmorning and happy Fathers Day, If ex92L comes back does it have to be called 92L again?
1888. DDR
It showing plenty rain to your east
Quoting reedzone:


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum.

Your one good looking dude reedzone!
1890. gator23
GREETINGS FROM MR. SUNSHINE!!!!

1891. gator23
Quoting NortheastGuy:

Your one good looking dude reedzone!


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum. LOL!
I'm on my iPhone so I'm not going to fool with loops right now. What's up with coast of Africa?
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning and happy Fathers Day, If ex92L comes back does it have to be called 92L again?
maybe an AOI in 24 to 36 hrs
1894. gator23

I Hate Mondays...
Any man can be a father. It takes someone special to be a dad. ~Author Unknown

Happy Father's Day to all those great dads!

Met Service of Jamaica website last update is from yesterday at 4pm. Usually they update at 5:00am.

June 19, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical wave moving south of Jamaica.

Comment… Tropical Wave is the centre of the Caribbean and moving northward. Tropical Wave has moved south and west of the island.

24 HOURS FORECAST
Tonight… A few thunderstorms are likely over the northeast.
Tomorrow… Scattered showers and thunderstorm mainly across central and
western parishes.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon… Partly cloudy morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms over most parishes.
Tue… Partly cloudy morning, isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over inland areas and western parishes.
Wed.. Periods of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over central and western parishes.

Regionally… Tropical Wave moves north of the Caribbean. High Pressure dominates the western Caribbean.

rar
1896. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe an AOI in 24 to 36 hrs
If it becomes an invest again, will they have to call it 92L again? That letter and # is irritation to my eyes! LOL
Quoting IKE:
The GFS, which the last few runs until the 18Z run yesterday, had latched on to a GOM system. Since 18Z yesterday it's dropped it.

ECMWF now latches on to one heading it toward southern Texas.

oh no lol and yea i saw it last night
1898. Kearn
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Nooo, FL does NOT need any type of storm in JUNE!! Really don't need one at all during any portion of the season, but I think too many here in FL are not paying attention right now to the tropics. Most are set in the "routine" of the busy season for us being July, August and Sept. This is a most interesting beginning to the season that I have ever seen.


Hahaha, I check them at every advisory!
Quoting scott39:
If it becomes an invest again, will they have to call it 92L again? That letter and # is irritation to my eyes! LOL


well if they deactivate 92L
iam sure it can be re-activated
its up to those that do this i guess
hey Orca if ya still here can you post the link to the models
1901. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well if they deactivate 92L
iam sure it can be re-activated
its up to those that do this i guess
thanks, How long have we been tracking ex92L?
1902. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:
THe models are picking up on the wave near Trinidad not 92L. NAM shows a robust 92L moving into S FL on WED.


got a link jeff for the nam tia
Hey guys I haven’t been on in a long time, but with the active season projected I’m checking in more often. Can someone give a link to the ECMWF & Euro I don’t have those models saved
Thx
Brandy
1904. Kearn
If any models say 92L is going to become a storm/hurricane, they need to stop using 20th century pieces of junk. That thing has nowhere near enough distance to get its circulation back in order, get its bands, feeding bands, and rotation back together. I doubt this thing will even make it to Cuba before it dies off.
Quoting scott39:
thanks, How long have we been tracking ex92L?


today was day 9 of invest 92L
before de-activation little over an hour ago
92L began its life fri jun 11
peaked on 13th
then slowly waxed and waned till PR
then it became an open wave
yesterday morning
and declared gone this morning
1906. Dakster
Kearn - Your lips to mother natures ears... And if you happen to have her attention can you put in a good word for CONUS, especially Florida and GOM area?? (Not that I want anyone to get hit)
1907. 7544
anyone have a link for the nam tia
I don't have a father. Mine died seven years ago at the ripe old age of 50 due to brain cancer.

So far in life, nothing sucks worse than watching your dad die a death of madness and pain.
Quoting RecordSeason:
I don't have a father. Mine died seven years ago at the ripe old age of 50 due to brain cancer.

So far in life, nothing sucks worse than watching your dad die a death of madness and pain.


I hear ya.. mine at 52.. stinks
1910. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


today was day 9 of invest 92L
before de-activation little over an hour ago
92L began its life fri jun 11
peaked on 13th
then slowly waxed and waned till PR
then it became an open wave
yesterday morning
and declared gone this morning
Thanks
Quoting gator23:

I Hate Mondays...




well then you should love today because.........Its Sunday!!!!!!!!.....92L isn't finished yet IMO regeneration should occur over the next 24hrs,tonight we should se it re-activated...
new blog!!!!!!!
1913. scott39
How come the EPAC and the ATL hurricane season looks like 2009 right now?
Quoting scott39:
How come the EPAC and the ATL hurricane season looks like 2009 right now?


Because we are only in the 20th day of 180 days
1915. gator23
Quoting RecordSeason:
I don't have a father. Mine died seven years ago at the ripe old age of 50 due to brain cancer.

So far in life, nothing sucks worse than watching your dad die a death of madness and pain.

Mine at 54 from lung cancer that spread to his brain and body
1916. gator23
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Because we are only in the 20th day of 180 days

That said, at the 20th day THE PAC AND ATL look like ALL of 2009! which is amazing considering how early it is!
1917. gator23
Quoting btwntx08:
new blog!!!!!!!

there is nothing there? =-(
Quoting gator23:

That said, at the 20th day THE PAC AND ATL look like ALL of 2009! which is amazing considering how early it is!


Slow start..... But be prepared, because I believe that Mother Nature is about to tear us a new one. I hope that we don't get anything in the GOM with all of the oil out there. StormW was on last night and he said that the Caribbean will be open for business in about 6 days. Once the shear is gone, IMHO we are in for a world of hurt.
1919. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!